Foreign affairs 2017 09-10

september/october 2017 • volume 96 • number 5 • trump and the allies DOES AMERICA HAVE A DEEP STATE? SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2017 Trump and the Allies The View From Abroad F O R E I G NAF FAI R S .C O M



Volume 96, Number 5 TRUMP AND THE ALLIES 2 France’s Gamble As America Retreats, Macron Steps Up Natalie Nougayrède Berlin’s Balancing Act 9 Merkel Needs Trump—but Also Needs to Keep Her Distance Stefan Theil The United Kingdom’s Trump Trap 17 How Special a Relationship? David Goodhart Trump’s Gift to Japan 21 Time for Tokyo to Invest in the Liberal Order Takako Hikotani Down and Out Down Under 28 Australia’s Uneasy American Alliance Michael Fullilove Trudeau’s Trump Bump 35 COVER: ZACH MEYER How a Smaller America Gives Canada Room to Grow Jonathan Kay The Mexican Standof 43 Trump and the Art of the Workaround Shannon K. O’Neil September/October 2017

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ESSAYS 52 Trump and the “Deep State” The Government Strikes Back Jon D. Michaels Saving “America First” 57 What Responsible Nationalism Looks Like Andrew J. Bacevich The False Prophecy of Hyperconnection 68 How to Survive the Networked Age Niall Ferguson China vs. America 80 Managing the Next Clash of Civilizations Graham Allison Making Government Smarter 90 99 How to Set National Priorities 108 Bjorn Lomborg The Congressional Apprentice How Trump Is Approaching Capitol Hill Jef Bergner Pay Up, Europe What Trump Gets Right About NATO Michael Mandelbaum What America Owes Its Veterans 115 A Better System of Care and Support Phillip Carter ON FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM Nina Shea on the Marc Levinson on Amy Russo on Sweden’s future of Egypt’s Copts. productivity growth. deportation policy. September/October 2017

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Global Health Gets a Checkup 128 A Conversation With Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus 136 142 REVIEWS & RESPONSES 151 159 True Believers 166 173 How ISIS Made Jihad Religious Again 198 Graeme Wood Kleptocracy in America Corruption Is Reshaping Governments Everywhere Sarah Chayes What Kills Inequality Redistribution’s Violent History Timur Kuran The Nuclear Option Renewables Can’t Save the Planet—but Uranium Can Michael Shellenberger Terror in the Terroir The Roots of France’s Jihadist Problem Jytte Klausen Recent Books Letters to the Editor “Foreign Afairs . . . will tolerate wide diferences of opinion. Its articles will not represent any consensus of beliefs. What is demanded of them is that they shall be competent and well informed, representing honest opinions seriously held and convincingly expressed. . . . It does not accept responsibility for the views in any articles, signed or unsigned, which appear in its pages. What it does accept is the responsibility for giving them a chance to appear.” Archibald Cary Coolidge, Founding Editor Volume 1, Number 1 • September 1922 September/October 2017

September/October 2017 · Volume 96, Number 5 Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Editor, Peter G. Peterson Chair Managing Editor , , Deputy Managing Editors , Deputy Web Editors , , - Sta Editors Copy Chie Production Manager Contributing Artist Business Administrator Editorial Assistant Book Reviewers , , . ,. , , . , , , ., Interim Publisher Senior Product Manager Associate Director, Business Operations Associate Director, Marketing Advertising Director Senior Manager, Advertising Accounts and Operations Senior Manager, Events and Business Development Publishing Associate Special Assistant to the Publisher Director, Digital Development . Digital Analytics Manager Deputy Director, Digital Development Senior Web Developer Front End Web Developer Quality Assurance Manager Circulation Services ,, Media Relations Board of Advisers ., . , ,, Chair , ., , , , ., ., , ., ,. ., . ,. ., ., : Foreign A airs 58 E. 68th Street, New York, NY 10065 ForeignA airs.com/services : : Call Edward Walsh at 212-434-9527 or visit www.foreigna airs.com/advertising 800-829-5539 U.S./Canada 813-910-3608 All other countries : ForeignA airs.com : ForeignA airs.com/newsletters : service@ForeignA airs.customersvc.com : P.O. Box 60001, Tampa, FL, 33662-0001 : Facebook.com/ForeignA airs : The contents o Foreign A airs are copyrighted. No part o the magazine may be reproduced, hosted or distributed in any form or by any means without prior written permission from Foreign A airs. To obtain permission, visit ForeignA airs.com/about-us Foreign A airs is a member o the Alliance for Audited Media and the Association o Magazine Media. GST Number 127686483RT Canada Post Customer #4015177 Publication #40035310