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LETTER FROM THE EDITORS Defining Declinism Down In 1988, Samuel Huntington wrote an essay critiquing what he saw as a neurotic American tendency to fear decline. At the time, the Soviet Union was about to collapse and the United States was about to win the Cold War, but Americans were fixated on fallout from the 1987 stock market crash, soaring trade deficits, and feared economic domination by Japan. One of the year’s most discussed books was Paul Kennedy’s The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, which decried the perils of America’s “imperial overstretch.” Huntington argued for perspective, noting that America It is a sobering picture. Yet while plenty of foreign-policy becomes consumed by fears of its own demise every 10 years “elites” are discussing decline, it is mostly to deride the or so—think: The technological insecurity after the 1957 idea. Policymakers seem most concerned with convincing launch of Sputnik, the reaction to the Soviets’ 1979 invasion themselves, each other, and the American people that their of Afghanistan—and that those fears had never actually been borne out. nation remains exceptional. In The recurring worry about nation- many senses, of course, it is. But al degeneration was not based on obeisance to the “city upon a hill” hard evidence—it was an emotional ideal has become a sort of loyalty test. response, a psychological condition. Patriotic theater is nothing new in American politics, but if politicians The authors of our cover story, rely on bromides to elide a genuine Elbridge Colby and Paul Lettow, are threat to America’s relative standing not believers in American decline. in the world, then they run a tremen- They are believers in evidence. But dous risk. the data show that America’s relative influence around the world is, in fact, Because, while critiquing declinist under enormous pressure as eco- paranoia, Huntington also noted nomic growth shifts with historically the key role that fear played in unprecedented speed to the devel- catalyzing national renewal: “In all oping world. It’s a change happening its phases declinism has predicted faster than the one provoked by the the imminent shrinkage of Ameri- Industrial Revolution or anything can power. In all its phases that before or since. Potential adversaries prediction has become central to of the United States, such as China, preventing that shrinkage. Declinism are using their newfound wealth to is a theory that has to be believed to upgrade their military capabilities be invalidated.” and, perhaps, challenge U.S. forces. That threat, in turn, is coming at precisely the time when Pentagon resources—as Renewal—along with the eco- well as other “discretionary” priorities—are shrinking because nomic prosperity, security, and global leadership role Washington remains mired in profound fiscal dysfunction. it would preserve—is within America’s grasp. But first, Washington needs to stop preening about how great it is and take a hard look in the mirror. —The Editors FOREIGN POLICY 3
CONTENTS 7 Contributors FEATURES 22 Pictured The Uprooted ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP/GETTY IMAGES 8 Letters Photographs by Ed Kashi 54 11 26 Democracy Lab Have We Hit Back to the Basics INBOX Peak America? By Christian Caryl 12 Opening Gambit The sources of U.S. power and the 28 Dispatch Where the India’s Path of Least Resistance path to national renaissance. Wild Things Are By Scott C. Johnson By Sumit Ganguly By Elbridge Colby and Paul Lettow 16 Anthropology of an Idea 33 Epiphanies Jack Matlock Third Gender By Jake Scobey-Thal 64 Interview by Elias Groll 18 Ideas We Don’t Need No The Social Laboratory 88 Education; Did Hitler Bring Home the Bacon?; Tuez-le, S’il Vous Plaît Singapore is testing whether mass COLUMN surveillance and big data can not only By Alicia P.Q. Wittmeyer protect national security, but actually Therapy for the 20 The Things They Carried engineer a more harmonious society. Self-Hating Superpower The Mormon Missionary By Shane Harris The United States needs a Interview by Nate Tabak domestic intervention to snap Photographs by Atdhe Mulla 72 out of its downwad spiral. 4 JULY/AUGUST 2014 Fragile States Index By David Rothkopf Iran is up. America is down. North Korea isn’t as bad as you think. But what do numbers rating the stability of a country really mean? 78 The Bleeding Edge For decades, Minnesota has led the world in developing medical technology. But now red tape at home and competition abroad are threatening its dominance. By Sarah Laskow ON THE COVER: TYPOGRAPHY BY CLAUDIA DE ALMEIDA
OUR NEIGHBORHOOD. TREASURY WHITE COMMERCE OAS FEDERAL NATIONAL ACADEMY DEPARTMENT HOUSE DEPARTMENT RESERVE OF SCIENCES WORLD IMF THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY THE ELLIOTT SCHOOL STATE BANK OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT YOUR FUTURE. GW’s Elliott School of International Affairs is located just steps from some of the most important policymaking institutions in the world. Our proximity to U.S. and international organizations puts our scholars in a powerful position to analyze policy prob- lems as they unfold, and it draws world leaders to our campus to address some of the most important issues of our time. Every school of international affairs bridges the theory and practice of foreign policy. At GW’s Elliott School of International Affairs, we don’t need bridges; we have sidewalks. elliott.gwu.edu
David Rothkopf CEO AND EDITOR THE FP GROUP J. Peter Scoblic Benjamin Pauker EXECUTIVE EDITOR EXECUTIVE EDITOR PRINT ONLINE Mindy Kay Bricker Yochi Dreazen DEPUTY EDITOR, PRINT DEPUTY EDITOR, NEWS Seyward Darby Lindsay Ballant Nicole Duran STORY EDITOR CREATIVE DIRECTOR SENIOR EDITOR, NEWS Rebecca Frankel SPECIAL PROJECTS EDITOR SENIOR EDITORS, TEA LEAF NATION Rachel Lu, David Wertime SENIOR STAFF WRITERS Shane Harris, MIDDLE EAST EDITOR David Kenner ASIA EDITOR Isaac Stone Fish Gordon Lubold, Colum Lynch SENIOR REPORTERS Keith Johnson, Jamila Trindle ASSOCIATE EDITOR Max Strasser ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITORS Jake Scobey-Thal, STAFF WRITER John Hudson Alicia P.Q. Wittmeyer COPY CHIEF P.J. Aroon DEPUTY ART DIRECTOR Ed Johnson COPY EDITOR Vanessa H. Larson ASSISTANT EDITORS Elias Groll, HOMEPAGE EDITOR Emma Carew Grovum Thomas Stackpole, Prachi Vidwans DIGITAL INTERNS Tony Papousek, Andrew Weiner FELLOWS Hanna Kozlowska, Catherine Traywick TEA LEAF NATION INTERNS Bethany Allen, Shujie Leng EDITORIAL RESEARCHERS Simon Engler, Reid Standish CONTRIBUTING EDITORS Daniel Altman, John Arquilla, Peter Bergen, David Bosco, Ian Bremmer, Rosa Brooks, Christian Caryl, Mohamed A. El-Erian, Peter D. Feaver, David E. Hoffman, William Inboden, Charles Kenny, Christina Larson, Aaron David Miller, Thomas E. Ricks, James Traub, Stephen M. Walt, Micah Zenko SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, CIRCULATION, GLOBAL ADVERTISING SALES DIGITAL STRATEGY AND OPERATIONS Christopher Cotnoir Amer Yaqub VICE PRESIDENT, BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER Tara Vohra Ian Keller WEB DIRECTOR Tim Showers VICE PRESIDENT, INTERNATIONAL WEB DEVELOPERS Josh Mobley, Priya Nannapaneni, Saxon Stiller Emily Simon DIRECTOR, CONTENT SALES DIRECTOR, INTERNATIONAL Keith Arends Aaron Schumacher ASSISTANT DIRECTOR, MARKETING RESEARCH VICE PRESIDENT, COMMUNICATIONS AND AD TRAFFICKING Jess Dillman Matthew J. Curry ACCOUNT EXECUTIVE, MARKETING AND COMMUNICATIONS Maria Ory SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER Allen Chin ACCOUNT MANAGER, EDUCATION Brian Ackerman ASSISTANT TO THE CEO Hilary Kline JUNIOR ACCOUNTANT Luyi Shonekan VICE PRESIDENT, EVENTS NATION BRANDING RESEARCH FELLOW Reid Koester Grace Rooney BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT INTERN Anum Malik EVENTS INTERN Lucy Matthews Foreign Policy 11 Dupont Circle NW, Suite 600, Washington, D.C. 20036 PUBLISHING OFFICE: 202 728 7300 | SUBSCRIPTIONS: 800 535 6343 SUBSCRIPTIONS SUBSCRIBER SERVICES Foreign Policy, P.O. Box 283, Congers, NY 10920-0283; ForeignPolicy.com/services; e-mail: [email protected]; (800) 535-6343 in U.S.; (845) 267-3050 outside U.S.; Publi- cations mail agreement no. 40778561. Rates (in U.S. funds): $59.99 for one year. For academic rates, go to ForeignPolicy.com/education. NEWSSTAND AND BOOKSTORE DISTRIBUTION Curtis Circulation Company, 730 River Road, New Milford, NJ 07646-3048; (201) 634-7400. BACK ISSUES $10.95 per copy. International airmail add $3.00 per copy; online: ForeignPolicy.com/backissues; e-mail: [email protected]. SYNDICATION REQUESTS Contact Matthew Curry (202) 728-7351; [email protected]. OTHER PERMISSION REQUESTS Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (978) 750-8400; www.copyright.com. FOR ADVERTISING Call (202) 728-7310. 2009 NATIONAL MAGAZINE AWARD GENERAL EXCELLENCE © 2014 by The FP Group, a division of Graham Holdings Company, which bears no responsibility for the editorial content; the views expressed in the articles are those of the authors. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher.
CONTRIBUTORS SCOTT C. JOHNSON got his first internship in journalism SHANE HARRIS was writing about by walking into the Paris offices of Newsweek, with technology for Government no experience under his belt, and asking for a job. Executive magazine on Sept. 11, After paying his dues serving coffee and making 2001. The terrorist attacks on copies, Johnson wrote his first story about Père that day were the impetus for the Lachaise, the Parisian cemetery where singer Jim U.S. war on terror—and for a new Morrison is buried. He then spent the next 12 years focus in Harris’s work: He has reporting from Europe, Afghanistan, Mexico, and been reporting on the intersec- Iraq, among other places. From 2007 to 2011, he was tion of technology, intelligence, Newsweek’s Africa bureau chief. Now a freelancer, and national security for more Johnson’s work has been featured in the New York than a decade. In 2003, he wrote Times, the Daily Beast, and Granta. In 2012, he pub- his first intelligence story about lished a memoir, The Wolf and the Watchman, which efforts by a CIA and FBI team to recounts his life as the son of a CIA officer. | P. 28 track a computer worm; since then, he has contributed to the Before she became a freelancer, SARAH LASKOW dug up Washingtonian, National Journal, dirt for the Center for Public Integrity, a nonprofit orga- and the New York Times, among nization dedicated to investigative journalism. Laskow other publications. Today, wrote about everything from Sarah Palin’s financial Harris is a senior staff writer disclosures during the 2008 U.S. presidential election for FOREIGN POLICY and the to efforts by lawmakers in Louisiana to strengthen author of The Watchers: The Rise ethics legislation. Today, Laskow maintains her of America’s Surveillance State. commitment to reporting on policy, while keeping the His forthcoming book, @War: public interest in mind. She has written about the Key- The Rise of the Military-Internet stone XL pipeline for the American Prospect, Barack Complex, will be published in Obama’s climate policy for Reuters, and pollution in November 2014. | P. 64 space for the Boston Globe. | P. 78 HARRIS: JOE DE FEO; DE ALMEIDA: IAN ALLEN Admirers of the recent redesign of Wired magazine have CLAUDIA DE ALMEIDA to thank. After 12 years living in New York City, de Almeida relocated to San Fran- cisco in January 2013 to take a job as Wired’s design director; one of her first projects was to overhaul the look and layout of the publication. A graduate of the School of Visual Arts in New York, de Almeida, who is now a freelance designer, has been working in magazine art direction for nine years. Her work has appeared in New York Magazine, More, and Men’s Health. | COVER In the wake of two wars and the worst recession in over six decades, the pessimists worried about America’s power in the world may be on to something. To diagnose the current state of America’s might, FOREIGN POLICY turned to two experts with years of experience analyzing U.S. strategic assets and global ambitions. ELBRIDGE COLBY is the Robert M. Gates fellow at the Center for a New American Security, where he focuses on strategy, deterrence, nuclear weapons, conventional force, and intelligence. In 2012, he served as a national security advisor on Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign. PAUL LETTOW was senior director for strategic planning on the National Se- curity Council staff from 2007 to 2009. He is the author of the report “Strengthening the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime” and the book Ronald Reagan and His Quest to Abolish Nuclear Weapons. | P. 54 FOREIGN POLICY 7
LETTERS The Wrong including systems that are France and with strong sup- WHILE HOROWITZ Debate able to strike autonomously. port from many of America’s WARNS THAT THE friends and allies, the CCW UNITED STATES COULD In 2012, the United States While Horowitz warns that states held a four-day meeting LOSE ITS LEAD IN became the first nation to the United States could lose of experts in May 2014. Many ROBOTIC WEAPONS, articulate a policy for killer its lead in robotic weapons, state delegations spoke of THE QUESTION WE robots. A decade after the the question we should be their concerns about lethal SHOULD BE ASKING country became the first to asking is where U.S. leader- decisions being made by IS WHERE U.S. target and kill people with ship is taking the world—and machines and about the need LEADERSHIP IS TAKING remotely operated drones, whether a robotics arms for precaution, rather than THE WORLD AND the Defense Department race is necessary at all. a blind rush into unknown WHETHER A ROBOTICS directive on “Autonomy in dangers. Unfortunately, the ARMS RACE IS Weapon Systems” established During the same two years United States presented its NECESSARY AT ALL. guidelines under which the that Russia was following 2012 policy as an example for military “shall” develop, America’s lead, a new civil the rest of the world to follow. validate, acquire, and use a society movement emerged, new generation of weapons pointing a different way The U.S. military once that “once activated, can forward. Organized as the resisted autonomous select and engage targets Campaign to Stop Killer weapons, even denying it without further interven- Robots, this movement draws would consider using them. tion by a human operator.” on humanity’s instinctive And a 2013 poll showed that abhorrence of machines de- Americans oppose these As Michael C. Horowitz ciding who lives and who dies, weapons by a 2-to-1 margin, (“The Looming Robot- as well as worldwide alarm at with the strongest opposition ics Gap,” May/June 2014) the pace of an arms race that among military personnel. acknowledges, “The United threatens to destabilize stra- It isn’t too late to define a States is currently the world’s tegic security, reduce human policy that is more consistent leader in military robotics.” control and responsibility, de- with American values and But it is also true, as he says, grade human dignity, and un- security interests. Why not that “other countries are dermine human sovereignty. take the lead in helping the not going to stand still.” world say no to killer robots? After extensive discussion We can already see the at the United Nations last MARK AVRUM GUBRUD beginnings of a global race year, the 117 state parties to International Committee that, Horowitz notes, the the Convention on Certain for Robot Arms Control Defense Science Board Conventional Weapons (CCW) Chapel Hill, N.C. warned of in 2012. For agreed to take up the issue. example, Russia, alarmed at Under the leadership of its “technological backward- ness” and “inferior” military robotic systems (according to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu), has in the past two years established a Foundation for Advanced Research Projects in the Defense Industry modeled on America’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). It has also created a “military robots develop- ment lab” comparable to the U.S. Navy’s new Laboratory for Autonomous Systems Research. And answering the 2012 American policy direc- tive, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin has called on Russian industry to push hard in military robotics, FOREIGN POLICY welcomes letters to the editor. Readers should address their comments to [email protected]. Letters may be edited for length and clarity. For more debate and discussion of our stories, go to FOREIGNPOLICY.com. 8 JULY/AUGUST 2014
LETTERS Restarting after a disaster in a faraway progression, a caste-like INDEED, MANY OF THE from Scratch part of the world, it sends two command structure, and PROPOSED IDEAS IN messages: “America is here to one-size-fits-all physical THE ARTICLE ARE NOT In their thought-provoking ar- help” (goodwill), and “America and educational standards NEW; RATHER, THEY ticle, “Ctrl+Alt+Delete” (May/ has an outrageously high-tech severely hamper the mili- HAVE LANGUISHED June 2014), Shawn Brimley and capable war-fighting force tary’s ability to attract and FOR LACK OF and Paul Scharre claim that positioned near you” (deter- retain top talent. It should IMPLEMENTATION. today’s U.S. military is failing rence). Overtailoring capabil- be able to recruit talented THEY COULD BE to keep up with the demands ities to specific tactical mis- midcareer professionals and ENACTED TOMORROW, of the 21st century. So true! sions, then, could undermine people with unique skills, AND IF THEY WERE, Strategy is subordinated concurrent strategic ends. regardless of education level, THEY WOULD BE to tradition and politics, for high-demand fields. And TANGIBLE STEPS stymieing innovation and Bureaucratically, giving this is something it can start TOWARD THE adaptation while preventing each mission command the addressing immediately. FUTURE ENVISIONED many talented Americans responsibility for developing BY BRIMLEY AND from ever having the chance its own capabilities would Indeed, many of the pro- SCHARRE. to serve. To be sure, democra- create redundancies, as posed ideas in the article are cies don’t construct militaries each command would want not new; rather, they have lan- for maximum efficiency; dedicated, even bespoke guished for lack of implemen- the importance of civilian platforms. To remedy the tation. They could be enacted control and popular support, problem of having each one tomorrow, and if they were, for instance, is why America developing similar ships, they would be tangible steps struggles through congressio- planes, and ground vehi- toward the future envisioned nal oversight processes when cles, America would end by Brimley and Scharre. crafting a military budget. up pooling efforts within domains across the com- The authors are correct: It And yet, America can do mands to ensure efficiency in is time to make the U.S. mil- better. research, development, and itary a high-demand career acquisition. This might end choice for the country’s best The radical overhaul that up looking a lot like … well, an and brightest and to bring Brimley and Scharre suggest Army, Navy, and Air Force. American defense institutions is, of course, unrealistic on firmly into the 21st century. a number of levels and in Those problems aside, some cases might not solve Brimley and Scharre get the problems identified. plenty right. They argue, for JANINE DAVIDSON But there are gems in their example, that the military’s Senior Fellow for Defense Policy vision that can and should personnel-management Council on Foreign Relations be considered right now, system requires fundamental Author of the blog even without throwing out change. Linear career Defense in Depth the Army, Navy, and Air Washington, D.C. Force (as they suggest). First, the criticisms. Brim- ley and Scharre’s suggestion to organize the armed forces around three mission- oriented commands—Global Strike, Defense, and Presence— likely would leave critical operational gaps while failing to eliminate the targeted bureaucratic inefficiencies. On the operational side, hav- ing one command responsible for “power projection” and “de- terrence,” while another con- ducts “day-to-day U.S. military presence in global hot spots,” misses the fact that America’s military posture abroad has, by design, multiple simulta- neous objectives. When, for example, the military shows up for humanitarian relief FOREIGN POLICY 9
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Is Berlin an Alternative INBOX Dispatch: Rhino-Horn to D.C. Dysfunction? Lust and Poaching By Christian Caryl P. 26 By Scott C. Johnson P. 28 The Uprooted in Azerbaijan P. 22 16 18 20 33 ANTHROPOLOGY OF AN IDEA IDEAS THE THINGS THEY CARRIED EPIPHANIES THIRD GENDER WE DON’T NEED THE MORMON JACK MATLOCK NO EDUCATION MISSIONARY PHOTO BY ED KASHI FOREIGN POLICY 11
INBOX • OPENING GAMBIT ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP/GETTY IMAGES The Path of Least Resistance Why India’s biggest problem isn’t Narendra Modi. By Sumit Ganguly In a speech to Mumbai college students in November 2010, while on a state visit to India, U.S. President Barack Obama declared, “The United States does not just believe, as some people say, that India is a rising power; we believe that India has already risen.” He was not alone in expressing such gusto about the country’s prospects. A spate of books, both popular and academic, had been highlighting the country’s imminent economic success. Indeed, India seemed on the verge of genuine great-power status, due in no small part to liberalization of the country’s economy. Market reforms begun 12 JULY/AUGUST 2014
in the 1990s had soon led to an average If India’s leaders of his Congress party. growth of about 8 percent annually. India insist on hewing to In contrast, some of Nehru’s opponents was held aloft with China as an emerging lowest-common- economic powerhouse. And if the rising denominator politics, had argued for alignment with the West tide did not lift all boats, it did create a the country will and a free enterprise system domestically. viable middle class in a country long prove unable The predecessor to today’s BJP, Bharatiya divided between a small elite and a to address endemic Jana Sangh, had promoted Hindu desperately poor majority. problems of rural nationalism at home and a muscular and urban poverty. foreign policy. But Nehru prevailed in Then, starting about three years ago, every national election from 1952 onward this remarkable transformation slowed to commerce; it has a youth bulge around and created and nurtured a range of a relative standstill almost as quickly as it the corner (in 2020 the average age will be political institutions that enshrined his had begun, and the search for scapegoats 29); and its entrepreneurial class has national vision and laid the foundation began. India’s slowdown has been demonstrated that it can compete with its for modern India. blamed on everything from the global global peers. Nor is India lacking in hard, financial crisis, to corruption scandals material capabilities: It is a nuclear- Nehru’s socialistic approach had its that have racked the Indian National capable state with a professional, limits, though. It did succeed in prevent- Congress party and its allies, to misguid- million-man army. ing vast disparities in wealth and income, ed economic policies. These factors, but it also led to a slothful bureaucracy however, are merely manifestations of a But if India’s leaders insist on hewing that guaranteed lifetime employment to a far deeper malaise that has afflicted the to these lowest-common-denominator substantial number of Indian citizens. In country for a long time. politics, the country will prove unable to this variant of democratic socialism—what address endemic problems of rural and the noted American economist (and Over some 40 years, the founding ideas urban poverty, it will not succeed in onetime ambassador to India) John that made India a stable, democratic, and sustaining steady economic growth, and Kenneth Galbraith sardonically described secular nation have been eroding—an it will be unable to be counted on to as “post office socialism”—the central erosion accelerated by the government’s shoulder the burdens of various forms of government inevitably assumed a utter failure to explain the need to move global collective action on issues ranging paternalistic role. Although Nehru was from the country’s early socialist from trade to climate change. India’s popular with many, his system’s structural guarantees to the promises of free market problem is not Modi—it is decades of inefficiencies did not reduce poverty, as he prosperity. To explain, that is, the need for political and intellectual deterioration had promised, or deliver economic growth. ideological change. Whenever the public’s that made his election possible. At the same time, his emphasis on heavy expectations, whether of government care industry came at the cost of agricultural or free market prosperity, have not been TO GRASP WHAT AILS INDIA TODAY, WE NEED A investments, inadequate attention was met by reality, national discontent has small dose of historical perspective. paid to burgeoning population growth, increased. And whenever discontent has and there was a colossal neglect of primary increased, there have long been opposi- Quickly after assuming independence education. As a result, India remained a tion politicians willing to nurture base in 1947, India developed a strong, poor nation unable to realize its vast ethnic nationalism to further their own unifying set of ideas that were ratified economic and human potential. aims. The result has been a cycle of through vigorous and public ideological increasingly aggressive populism that debate. Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s By the time Nehru’s daughter, Indira does much to undermine India’s national first prime minister, and his nationalist Gandhi, took office in 1966, India was in identity and little to rectify its foundation- colleagues espoused a form of secular dire economic straits. Within the year, al problems. Amid a lack of real ideas, a socialism at home and nonalignment under pressure from global multilateral play to the electorate’s base instincts has abroad—a foreign policy aimed at banks and the United States, it had to been the path of least resistance to power. keeping the new nation out of the devalue its currency by about 37 percent. budding Cold War between the United These problems worsened under Gandhi In May, these trends culminated in the States and the Soviet Union. Many of because she lacked the intellectual national election that gave the Bharatiya Nehru’s policies, though not all, proved wherewithal to fix them, she pursued Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister successful. Under his leadership, India ill-considered economic policies, and she Narendra Modi a sweeping victory with built an industrial base, sought to forge a ignored relevant policy advice. Instead, both a mandate and the power to execute distinct national identity, and solidified she seemed interested chiefly in their agenda for India. To many observ- its commitment to liberal democracy—a increasing her own power, which she did ers, the dramatic ouster of the once-dom- commitment incorporated into the fabric by disregarding institutional procedures inant Congress party was nothing short her father had established in favor of of a revolution. But the truth is that the personal loyalty. She ended the practice BJP’s win was merely the latest swing of a of holding internal elections for the pendulum between competing popu- governing structure of the Congress lisms that long ago took the place of party. As a consequence, political substantive debate in India. representation suffered because regional leaders who commanded grassroots India retains significant national and support did not necessarily rise within international potential. Over 100 million the party’s hierarchy. She steadily of its citizens speak English, the estab- politicized the civil service, and she lished language of diplomacy and 13FOREIGN POLICY
INBOX • OPENING GAMBIT Then Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi meets with the press during an official visit to Paris in 1981. Indian Supreme Court judgment granting alimony to an indigent and illiterate eroded the independence of the higher support for Congress declined, she resort- Muslim woman. JEAN REGIS ROUSTON/ROGER VIOLLET/GETTY IMAGES judiciary. ed to striking political bargains that worsened this problem considerably. The BJP, unsurprisingly, seized upon None of this benefited Indian Perhaps the most egregious was her tacit both episodes as evidence of the democracy, but the country’s continued partnership with a radical Sikh preacher, Congress party’s “appeasement” of the economic straits opened the door for Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale, who was Muslim minority and branded its actions Gandhi to develop a politically effective, promoting violent separatism in the as “pseudo-secularism.” The BJP deftly but substantively hollow, form of border state of Punjab. This alliance of portrayed the Muslim minority as populism. Although a small segment of convenience was designed to undermine retrograde and Congress as a threat to the electorate, especially the intellectual the Shiromani Akali Dal, another political India’s majority Hindus. While promising class, protested, most were swayed by party in the state. When Bhindranwale to restore “genuine secularism,” the BJP her rhetoric. This strategy dramatically eventually turned against her, Gandhi really sought to dismantle the entire raised the expectations of many voters was compelled to use force against him at edifice of secularism in India by depict- and led them to put their faith in her the Golden Temple in the city of ing Hindus as a besieged community. slogans. In 1971, for example, her Amritsar. This action not only resulted in campaign mantra was garibi hatao the deaths of several hundred hapless This message was popular, but the BJP (“abolish poverty”). In a country pilgrims, but it ultimately led to her nevertheless failed to win national besieged with abject need, Gandhi’s assassination in 1984 at the hands of her elections in the late 1980s. Instead, a opponents had difficulty combatting Sikh bodyguards. series of weak, rudderless coalition this exhortation on the campaign trail. governments provided neither gover- Unsurprisingly, they began to cast about Her son and successor, Rajiv Gandhi, nance nor growth. Against this gloomy for similar slick appeals. continued to erode India’s secular edifice backdrop, the Cold War drew to a close, and strengthen the appeal of Hindu India’s warm relationship with the Soviet Their answer came in the form of crude zealots by cozying up to the most Union ended, and the namby-pamby ethnic nationalism that sought to scape- anti-modernist segments of the Muslim socialist model of economic development goat minorities for the country’s many ills. community in a crude attempt to bolster began to disintegrate. To compound The most prominent party to embrace this his electoral fortunes. In October 1988, matters, an unprecedented fiscal crisis tactic was the BJP, which in the 1980s for example, even before Iran issued its hit India—it was triggered in part by the seized upon a virulent Hindu nationalism infamous fatwa against Salman Rushdie, Gulf War, which cost India considerably that resonated among much of the Gandhi’s government banned The in lost remittances from expatriate electorate. Thus, at the same time that Satanic Verses to garner Muslim votes. workers in the Persian Gulf region, forced India’s democratic socialism was turning This, however, was not its most egregious the government to pay for the workers’ into an autocratic populism, the robust decision. Two years earlier, in an attempt swift repatriation, and led to a dramatic commitment to secularism Nehru had to court India’s vocal, traditionalist rise in global oil prices. established was also beginning to erode. Muslim orthodoxy, it had used its parliamentary majority to overturn an Seeking a modicum of stability, the In her final years in office, as regional electorate returned Congress to power in parties rose to challenge Gandhi and 1991. Veteran politician Narasimha Rao became prime minister and, together with then-Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, seized the crisis as an opportunity to dramatically change the country’s economic direction. They moved India away from its decades-old state-led model of economic development. They implemented more market-friendly policies that reduced regulatory barriers, opened India to foreign investment, and gingerly sought to sell off state-owned firms. The reforms worked, growth steadily increased, and, for once, the country started to make a real dent in reducing rampant poverty. However, the leadership made practically no effort to provide an explicit intellectual rationale for the drastic shift in the country’s economic policies. The process of liberalization, for the most part, was accomplished through stealth and subterfuge. Even as the government shed many of its regulatory functions, large sections of the electorate remained 14 JULY/AUGUST 2014
wedded to the socialistic order that and stagnated infrastructure projects, thus treated less to a political campaign provided numerous public-sector jobs, increasingly forced the public to question than to a contest of ethnic chauvinism. offered a range of subsidies in areas whether the benefits of liberalization ranging from food to transportation, and really outweighed the damage that had Given the Congress party’s abject bailed out unprofitable government firms. been done to the social safety net. The record over the past five years, it is hardly move from socialism was never well surprising that a significant segment of Beyond its failure to justify economic articulated, and the benefits of liberaliza- the Indian electorate fell under Modi’s liberalization, India’s leadership did not tion were never evenly distributed—thus, spell despite his failure to articulate a swiftly create new institutions to ensure the door was flung open for a campaign viable alternative political vision. Now sufficient transparency, surveillance, and that, even more than in 2004, became less that he is ensconced in office, will he be oversight of a more market-oriented about solving India’s problems and more able to sketch a blueprint for tackling economy. The lack of such neutral about blaming minorities. India’s myriad domestic woes as well as institutional supervision enabled a small delineate a possible pathway for its number of well-connected players to True, the BJP did highlight India’s conduct of foreign affairs? If the quality corner important segments of the market, difficulties—and blamed Congress for of the debates during the campaign was a most notably when the government them—but it did little to explain how it harbinger of the future, the room for auctioned state resources ranging from the would better manage the country. All it optimism is quite limited. electromagnetic spectrum to coal fields. did was tout Modi’s putative economic achievements in his home state of What India desperately needs is the As a small coterie of elites cornered Gujarat and his reputation for adminis- forging and articulation of a novel markets and reaped windfall gains, trative efficiency. Congress, unable to ideological consensus, the revitalization Congress and its parliamentary coalition, respond substantively to the charges, of its denuded institutions, and an end to the United Progressive Alliance, could sought to shift attention to the BJP’s sectarian appeals. A significant segment only proffer the poor and the disenfran- checkered record on minorities and of the Indian electorate has pinned its chised anemic, leaky welfare programs. especially on Modi’s albatross: the hopes on Modi’s Janus-faced promises: An electorate that had witnessed the February 2002 pogrom in Gujarat, which Some within his flock have reposed their creation and waylaying of vast wealth was he has been accused of fueling. In return, hopes in the resurgence of Hindu cultural left deeply dissatisfied with the crumbs of a BJP campaign manager and a close nationalism, while others have taken the government’s dole, especially as the associate of Modi, Amit Shah, while solace in his technocratic economic public sector, a mainstay of employment, campaigning in a riot-torn town in the promises. But neither of these two appeals failed to expand. Unsurprisingly, voters populous state of Uttar Pradesh, called on can enable the country to address and turned their electoral wrath on the ruling the crowd to seek “revenge for the insult” resolve its underlying debilities. coalition. Simultaneously weary of that they had putatively suffered during Congress’s blatant (yet insincere) electoral recent Hindu-Muslim riots. Worse still, Sumit Ganguly holds the Rabindranath pandering to the Muslim minority, they he claimed that the predominantly Tagore chair in Indian cultures and finally turned to the BJP and its siren call Muslim town in the same state, civilizations at Indiana University, of ethnic scapegoating. Azamgarh, was a base for terrorists. A Bloomington, and is a senior fellow at the country in dire need of leadership was Foreign Policy Research Institute in When the BJP assumed office in 1998, it Philadelphia. expanded Congress’s partial opening of the Indian economy. However, it too avoided the nettlesome task of providing the electorate an explicit logic for market reforms. Instead, during its term, it sought to move the country away from secularism toward ethnic nationalism. To that end it attempted to alter history textbooks, it showed scant regard for minority rights, and it did not upbraid Modi when, under his tenure as governor, a full-fledged pogrom erupted in the state of Gujarat. It did, however, promote significant economic growth while opening the doors to crony capitalism. The electorate tolerated this for six years, at which point it kicked out the BJP and returned Congress to power in 2004. KEVIN FRAYER/GETTY IMAGES IT WAS PARTWAY THROUGH THE CONGRESS LED A Border Security Force officer stands guard as Indians wait in line to vote on May 12, 2014, in Varanasi, India. coalition’s second term that the economy began to stagnate, with growth beginning to fall off in 2011. The government’s rampant venality and gross ineptitude, combined with fire sales of national assets 15FOREIGN POLICY
INBOX • ANTHROPOLOGY OF AN IDEA 385 380 B.C. AROUND 200 B.C. THIRD GENDER Greek philosopher Plato writes Symposium, in which men at a drinking The Manusmriti (Laws of Manu), which BY JAKE SCOBEY THAL | ILLUSTRATION BY CRAIG KARL party philosophize about the nature of love. forms the basis of Hindu rules, says, “A Aristophanes, a comic playwright, tells a story male child is produced by a greater quantity of of creation in which “original human nature” male seed, a female child by the prevalence of includes a third sex. This sex “was a distinct the female; if both are equal, a third-sex child or kind, with a bodily shape and a name of its boy-and-girl twins are produced.” But like many own, constituted by the union of the male other early writings on human identity, the and the female: but now only the word Manusmriti does not distinguish between ‘androgynous’ is preserved, and that biological traits and a person’s social as a term of reproach.” role: The former determines the latter. Social convention says there are two types of people: male and female. And you know who’s who based on their genitalia. But in fact, various cultures have long recognized members who buck the biological binary. The ancients wrote of people who were neither men nor women; individuals have been swapping genders for centuries; and intellectuals have fiercely debated the connection between the body and the self. Today, there are many populations with alternative identities, such as hijras in South Asia, kathoeys in Thailand, and muxes in Mexico. Yet these groups haven’t had it easy, often facing discrimination and violence. Only recently has the fight for legal recognition—and respect—of “third gender” begun to bear fruit, thanks to pioneering activists and policymakers. The world, it seems, is slowly embracing an adage once restricted to liberal universities: Gender is a construct, and people should be able to define it for themselves. FEB. 13, 2014 NOV. 1, DEC. 23, 2013 2009 Facebook expands gender settings on user profiles. These include some Germany announces that it will allow Pakistan’s Supreme Court 50 new options, including “cisgender” parents to register newborns as indeter- (someone who has a gender identity minate on birth certificates. The legislation is orders the creation of national regularly associated with his or her bio- adopted to mitigate pressure to pursue immediate logical sex), “neutrois” (someone who surgery for babies born with ambiguous physical identity cards on which features. A review by the German Ethics Council rejects a gender binary entirely), had revealed problems created by forced opera- hijras can identify as a and—simply—“other.” tions. “I will remain the patchwork created by doctors, bruised and scarred,” one adult distinct gender. APRIL 15, 2014 tells the BBC of surgery performed soon after birth. India’s Supreme Court recognizes the right of people, including hijras, to SEPT. DEC. 21, 2007 identify as third gender. The ruling requires 15, 2011 the government to establish quotas for Nepal’s Supreme Court mandates that third-gender people in employment and The Australian government announces the government establish a third-gender education, like those already in place for that passports will include a third- category (“other”) on citizenship documents. The other minorities. The court states, “It ruling comes in an anti-discrimination case filed gender option. However, the new regime has by Sunil Pant, Asia’s first openly gay federal-level is the right of every human being limitations: Applicants wishing to select “X” as politician and founder of the Blue Diamond Society, an to choose their gender.” their gender must provide a letter from a medical NGO that works closely with transgender sex workers professional confirming that they are intersex or (long targets of police brutality in Nepal). Despite 16 JULY/AUGUST 2014 do not identify with the sex assigned to them at the ruling, third-gender people continue to report birth. (Similarly, people wishing to change their harassment. As of 2014, according to activ- gender—from, say, female to male—must ists, only five individuals had officially provide a letter confirming that they registered as “other.” are undergoing treatment for a gender transition.)
77 B.C. 1860S Genucius, a Roman slave and Karl Heinrich Ulrichs, a eunuch, is denied inheritance on the grounds, according to art historian Lynn German thinker and writer, outlines Roller, of being “neither a man nor a woman.” He is “not even allowed to plead his own case, a theory of homosexuality using “third lest the court be polluted by his obscene presence and corrupt voice.” Eunuchs, sex” to categorize men attracted to other typically castrated men, often hold trusted positions—such as servants or men. He also describes such a man as priests—but they are also treated having “a female psyche confined in a as abnormal. male body.” This theory competes with Charles Darwin’s writings on sexual 1400S selection, which assert that two sexes exist for the purpose Sworn virgins emerge in Albanian of reproduction. communities in the Balkans. Known as burrneshas (“he-she”), the virgins are women who take oaths of celibacy and live as men in order to gain certain rights and privileges. For instance, after the death of a head of household and in the absence of male heirs, a woman could become 1871 a burrnesha to secure her family’s property and honor. British administrators pass the Criminal Tribes Act in India, effectively outlawing the country’s hijras—a community that includes people born with both male and female biological traits (called “intersex” today), transgender people (those whose gender identity doesn’t match their sex assigned at birth), eunuchs, and even cross-dressers. Celebrated in 1918 sacred Indian texts, hijras had long been part of South Asian cultures, but colonial Earl Lind (also known as Ralph authorities viewed them as violating the social order. Werther and Jennie June) publishes The Autobiography of an Androgyne, a memoir about coming to identify as “third sex.” The book, still studied widely by scholars of gender and sexuality, describes the author’s life in New York City, sexual encounters with both men and women, and decision to undergo castration. 1980 1950S 1951 1952 The American Psychi- Psychologist John Money popularizes Christine Jorgensen, born George atric Association (APA) codifies the term “gender role.” He controversially William Jorgensen in New York, completes “gender identity disorder,” a condition studies intersex children to understand how in which there is a disparity between a social and environmental factors, in addition sex-reassignment surgery in Denmark. person’s assigned sex and expressed gender to genetic and hormonal ones, help determine Jorgensen, who served in the U.S. Army, gains identity. The diagnosis allows practitioners to whether a person identifies as male or female. national recognition as the first American widely justify hormone treatment, sex-reassignment Money’s theories provide an important basis known to have had the surgery. New York’s Daily surgery, and other care. But critics argue for efforts—spearheaded by the burgeoning News runs a front-page story with the headline, that categorizing certain gender identities “Ex-GI Becomes Blonde Beauty.” (The United as mental illness is discriminatory. feminist movement—to argue that (In 2012, the APA renames the gender is not simply a function of States, however, legally recognizes only two genders; this remains the case condition “gender biology. today.) dysphoria.”) 1970S 1966 1980S Mexicans in Oaxaca state Endocrinologist Harry Benjamin, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah establish Vela de las Intrepidas (Vigil who treated Jorgensen, publishes The Ruhollah Khomeini, issues a fatwa of the Intrepids), a festival celebrating am- Transsexual Phenomenon, with a “sex ori- proclaiming no religious restriction on biguous gender identities. The Zapotec culture entation scale” for men engaging in feminine reassignment surgery, previously sanctioned embraces a third-gender population called behaviors. At one end are men who occasionally only for intersex people. The ayatollah had been muxes: men who consider themselves women dress as women but don’t want to be female; lobbied by transgender activist Maryam Khatoon and others who don’t strictly identify one way or at the other end are men who consider them- Molkara. Today, Iran is a top destination for the the other. Muxes trace back to pre-Columbian selves female and urgently want reassign- surgery, but the trend has a dark underbelly: times, when there were “cross-dressing ment surgery. “The dominant status of the Many gay Iranians choose surgery to avoid Aztec priests and Mayan gods who genital organs for the determination of persecution for homosexuality, which is were male and female at the same still punishable by death. Iran does not one’s sex,” Benjamin writes, “has time,” according to the been shaken.” recognize alternative genders. New York Times. FOREIGN POLICY 17
INBOX • IDEAS We Don’t Need No Education BY ALICIA P.Q. WITTMEYER ILLUSTRATIONS BY PETE RYAN I t was the summer of 2012, and Teenagers gave impassioned students think. Hong Kong was in an uproar. The speeches; students went on A group of economists from pro-Beijing government’s hunger strikes; parents cried attempts to put in place a so-called that their children should not universities in the United “patriotic education” curriculum— be brainwashed. States, Hong Kong, China, and one with lessons similar to those Germany set out to measure taught in mainland China—were met Did the protesters overreact? how much a government can with howls of protest across the city. After all, the hubbub was just influence the thinking of its The government claimed it was only about textbooks—not the citizenry via education. They trying to further a more thorough outright denial of free speech examined changes to the understanding of Chinese culture and or another right. mainland Chinese high school history. Hong Kong, of course, oper- curriculum that were rolled ates under different laws that provide In fact, a new study out between 2004 and 2010, greater rights and freedoms than the indicates that those decrying with the explicit goal of mainland. And Hong Kongers, ever “thought control” were right to turning potentially rebellious defensive of their way of life, took to worry: Changes to an educa- students into upstanding the streets by the tens of thousands. tional curriculum can have a members of the Communist profound effect on how Did Hitler to gain constituents’ favor. Führer himself even broke benefited from the Autobahn, Bring Home But did pork help even Adolf ground on a section of the road, whose construction had gone the Bacon? after which he turned to the into full swing between the two Hitler win German loyalty? audience members in polls, with those that hadn’t » In U.S. politics, “pork” is a Academics at the University attendance and told them to benefited. well-known and oft-maligned “get to work.” concept: Alaska built its bridge of California, Los Angeles, and They found that opposition to nowhere, and North Carolina the University of Zurich Researchers Nico Voi- fell everywhere, and they noted had its teapot museum. It’s a recently examined how gtländer and Hans-Joachim that the 1934 vote was not held tried-and-true electoral strategy infrastructure spending— Voth compared local election under entirely free and fair for politicians to invest in local specifically, the construction of results for votes held in circumstances. But opposition projects, no matter how bizarre, the Autobahn, the legendary November 1933 and August declined 60 percent faster in German highway system— 1934. Specifically, they were regions where the highway was affected citizens’ support of the interested in comparing the being built. Voigtländer and Third Reich in its early years. number of votes against the Voth estimate that in those The Autobahn was a priority of Nazis in regions that had areas, one in 10 people who had Hitler’s administration. The 18 JULY/AUGUST 2014
Party’s harmonious society. A ment officials, and they were TUEZ LE, S’IL VOUS PLAÎT 2001 Education Ministry more suspicious of unre- » If asked to kill one person in order to save document explained that the strained, American-style many, you might have some questions (and that’s putting it lightly): Is the person you’d be curriculum sought to “form in capitalism. (The government’s killing kind and just—or an unapologetic criminal? What about the others for whom the students a correct worldview, a attempts to influence students’ person would be sacrificed? correct view on life, and a attitudes toward ethnic What might not seem relevant to this difficult decision-making is the language used when you correct value system.” minorities were less success- were asked to do the deed. But, it turns out, language might actually matter a great deal. To find out whether the ful, as were its efforts to In a recent study, researchers at universities in changes worked, convince students Spain, Connecticut, and Chicago asked people to consider a well-known ethical test called the “fat the researchers Turns out, to prioritize the man trolley dilemma”: Would they shove one conducted a the new environment over heavy person in front of a runaway, speeding survey of the economic growth.) trolley, knowing that his death could stop the car political views of curriculum from hitting five other people in its path? The 2,000 students at worked like Yuchtman and researchers presented the problem, on paper, to Peking University, a charm. The his co-authors subjects in the United States, Spain, France, some of whom had authors found show that the South Korea, and Israel. Based on random studied under the that students stakes of educa- assignment, the subjects read the question in new curriculum who studied tion disputes— either their native tongue or a second language, and some of whom it were more whether they’re and they were required to answer in the same waged over language. had not. Noam likely to view Chinese national Across the board, the researchers found that when asked in a nonnative language, people were Yuchtman, one of China’s system values, evolution, more willing to push the fat man: 18 percent of the paper’s as democratic or World War II people asked in their mother tongue said they authors, said the history—are high. would push him, while 44 percent said the same team had doubts and more The researchers when a second language was used. that the reforms likely to trust warn against had been effective. government classroom content Prior research has solidly established that After all, citizens that is manipulat- speaking in a second language creates emotional officials. distance from subject matter. Still, the researchers were stunned by the extent to which know that the ed to benefit a this distance seems to have come into play on an ethical question, says Boaz Keysar, one of the Chinese government is country’s elite, by glossing study’s authors. inclined toward indoctrina- over its historical wrongdo- The findings have implications for judges, jury members, doctors, and others who may be faced tion, and the university’s ings, for example. with moral dilemmas every day in a second language; this is particularly true in countries students are among the In Hong Kong, the govern- where the ranks of immigrants are growing. Critically, the researchers caution that they are not country’s brightest. ment eventually backed down. suggesting people are making bad decisions when using second languages. Rather, they emphasize Turns out, the new The “patriotic education” that it is important for decision-makers to understand how a potentially surprising factor may curriculum worked like a plans have been put on ice, be influencing their thinking. charm. The authors found that and the rowdy protests have “You think that your morals are, to some extent, constant across the board,” says students who studied it were ceased. Hong Kong students Albert Costa, one of the paper’s authors. “But [language] really more likely to view China’s won’t have to worry about fundamentally changes the way you feel about these acts.” system as democratic and being another brick in the 19FOREIGN POLICY more likely to trust govern- wall—at least for now. previously opposed the Nazi wake of Weimar gridlock, the regime voted for it in 1934. Nazis’ ability to get things done was appealing. Were these one-time holdouts just voting for the Of course, this same ability party bringing home the would later be used to bacon? Perhaps. Workers perpetrate one of the worst building the Autobahn stayed tragedies in history. Yet as at local inns and spent money Voigtländer and Voth write, in local shops, and some it’s not so rare today to hear construction sites even became an elderly German, minor tourist attractions. But explaining to a the two researchers argue that grandchild why Hitler voters were more likely swayed was so popular, utter by the highway’s demonstra- the phrase, “At least tion of governmental compe- he built the tence and effectiveness. In the Autobahn.”
INBOX • THE THINGS THEY CARRIED Shoulder bag Name tags The American missionaries Most missionaries would are not as keen about spell their name those shoulder-strap bags. phonetically in Albanian The other missionaries [Kosovo’s main language], sometimes tease me so it’s easier to pronounce. about it and say it’s a handbag. But over here in Europe, it’s fine. THE MORMON Ping-pong paddle Missionary handbook MISSIONARY It’s very easy for people to A lot of the rules are INTERVIEW BY NATE TABAK PHOTOGRAPHS BY ATDHE MULLA see us as just common sense, but we’re still required to have the Being a Mormon missionary can be slow work. Over 16 months, missionaries. But it’s also handbook with us all the Daniel Harlow, 19, has helped convert only three or four people. good to show that we’re time. It can come in handy. “Our purpose is to invite others to come to Christ,” says the Sometimes it’s like, “Are soft-spoken native of Leeds, England, whose mission has brought people, too, and not him to Kosovo. “We don’t force anyone to try to do things. So it can robots. And you’ve got to we allowed to do this? be pretty frustrating when you’re trying to help people and they’re Let’s just double-check.” not helping themselves.” find ways to enjoy yourself. I like to think I’m Harlow is among 83,000 full-time missionaries of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints who serve in 405 missions pretty good. around the world. The number of full-time missionaries has risen by some 40 percent since 2012, when the church lowered the minimum age for serving from 19 to 18 for men and from 21 to 19 for women. But conversions haven’t kept pace: The church recorded just 3.4 baptisms per missionary in 2013, compared with 4.6 in 2012. The church still struggles with its image, particularly the perception of Mormons as oddballs who shun fun and practice polygamy (which the church actually banned over a century ago). But this stereotype is virtually unknown in Kosovo, where the church has only hosted a mission since 2011. “[People] don’t really slam the door like they do in England,” Harlow says. To be sure, work in Kosovo is not without danger. As of June, two alleged jihadists were being held in connection with a November 2013 attack on two women serving as missionaries in Pristina, the country’s capital. (Although not particularly religious, Kosovo is predominantly Muslim, and radicalism is on the rise.) But Harlow says the incident hasn’t given him pause about his work. “If something’s going to happen,” he says, “it’s going to happen.” Harlow’s life is highly regimented. After waking up at 6:30 each morning and exercising for a mission-mandated 30 minutes, he distributes pamphlets on streets or at front doors and follows up with potential converts. Bedtime is 10:30 p.m. Contact with home is limited to weekly emails and two calls per year—typically on Mother’s Day and Christmas. Dating is forbidden. In May, FOREIGN POLICY met with Harlow at the local church headquarters—a storefront space with some furniture, a piano, and a ping-pong table—to learn about what he takes with him for a typical day of preaching the Book of Mormon. 20 JULY/AUGUST 2014
Umbrella Church pamphlets The Bible When you’re working This is what people who The main reason I have it outside, it’s nice not to get are looking for more is for when people ask questions specifically caught out in the rain. information seem more interested in. They take it, about the [non-Mormon] and it’s free. They like to Bible. You can say, “Yes, learn about new things. we read the Bible—here is Planner one in my hand.” Sometimes in a lesson If I didn’t write things we’ll share scripture from down in my planner, the Bible, as well as the I’d forget them. I guess it is old-fashioned, but it Book of Mormon. gets the job done. Albanian translation of Nokia cell phone Passport Hand sanitizer the Book of Mormon It’s good to have because You get a lot of numbers. I and the other Most people would take a You’re calling potential and missionaries went to sometimes the water copy if we advertised that current church members Macedonia today, so I had shuts off in Pristina. to have my passport. We we have free books. So to set up appointments go and visit the elders 21FOREIGN POLICY it’s important for us to and calling other there once every six only give them away to missionaries too. weeks. We also go to people who are actually Albania once a month for a meeting of the full going to read it; regional mission. We all otherwise, we’d run out. discuss what things went well in the month, stuff like that.
INBOX • PICTURED THE UPROOTED PHOTOGRAPHS BY ED KASHI In early June, a sniper from Azerbaijan reportedly killed two soldiers from Armenia along the two countries’ border. This was not an isolated incident. For decades, the neighboring states have been in conflict over several territories that each claims as its own. Among these territories, the biggest source of tension is Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region within Azerbaijan that is populated primarily by ethnic Armenians. Full-scale war over the region ended with a Russian-brokered cease-fire in 1994, but acts of violence (as well as inconclusive peace talks) have continued sporadically ever since. Today, Nagorno-Karabakh is occupied by Armenian forces. Military occupation and casualties, how- ever, are far from the only consequences of the conflict. Azerbaijan has one of the world’s highest per capita numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons. More than 600,000 people—most of them ethnic Azeris who fled Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding districts—are dislocated from their homes, according to UNHCR, the United Nations’ refugee agency. Photographer Ed Kashi spent two weeks in 2013 in Azerbaijan, documenting the lives of the displaced. Many people have been put in apartments in the urban centers of Baku (the capital) and Sumgait, while others have been placed in government-construct- ed settlements in the countryside near Nagorno-Karabakh. Still more people, Kashi found, are squatting or making do wher- ever they can find the space—in temporary shelters or makeshift camps. One woman he met, Reyhan Kerimova, has made her home in an underground bunker that her family dug out themselves. “The Azeri government has made significant strides to build new hous- ing,” Kashi says. “But for some, like Kerimova, the conditions are still very difficult.” Haver Ahmadova, 49, and Ibadulla Ahmadov, 47, peer out the window of their home in Taxta Korpu village in Azerbaijan on May 27, 2013. 22 JULY/AUGUST 2014
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INBOX • PICTURED Boys play together in Aghjabadi, Azerbaijan (top). Two sisters, Samangul Ismaylova, 38, and Cicek Ismaylova, 35, comb wool in their home (bottom). 24 JULY/AUGUST 2014
Children celebrate the last day of the school year in the village of Shirvanli (top). Teymur Amirov, 72, stands outside the home he shares with his daughter-in-law, Hijrah, 35, in Aghjabadi (bottom). 25FOREIGN POLICY
INBOX • DEMOCRACY LAB Back to Basics Looking for an alternative to dysfunction in Washington? Maybe it’s time to turn to Berlin. By Christian Caryl Illustration by John Pobojewski / Thirst AS THE NUMBER OF DEMOCRATIC And why would they? America’s late democracy than it did in 1991. Congress is 18th-century constitutional system, with its paralyzed by partisan bickering, and A countries expanded strikingly undemocratic Senate and its Barack Obama’s administration barely dramatically in the years weirdly indirect mechanisms for presiden- seems up to the task of launching a following the disintegration tial elections, didn’t exactly look like the website. Germany, by contrast, still offers a of the Soviet Union, many cutting-edge model of governing. Instead, fine example of the virtues of steady new leaders paid homage to the experience new democracies looked for cues in a place government; it is Europe’s rock. of the United States, the world’s oldest liber- where elected representatives were chosen al democracy. America eagerly and smugly according to a strictly democratic system. This all raises the question: How did they took this adulation as its due. President Where politicians cooperated more than do it? In 1945, the place was a bunch of George H.W. Bush caught the tone in his they squabbled. Where policies generally smoking ruins; 70 years later, Germany is a 1991 State of the Union speech: “The strove to serve the best interests of the strong democracy that also happens to be triumph of democratic ideas in Eastern nation. And where, above all, public one of the world’s economic powerhouses. Europe and Latin America, and the servants placed a premium on getting What did Germans do in between to make continuing struggle for freedom elsewhere things done. their system of governance a model for all around the world, all confirm the countries like Poland, Hungary, the Czech wisdom of our nation’s founders.” The new democracies, in other words, Republic, and even post-Franco Spain? But while America was congratulating looked to Germany. itself on being a beacon of freedom, it The answer is elegantly simple: overlooked the fact that, in practice, very Two decades later, events appear to have Germany’s post-World War II political few of those new democracies actually conclusively vindicated that choice. If system, anchored in the lessons learned followed the U.S. lead. anything, the United States now offers an from previous national failures and even worse advertisement for the virtues of tragedies, emphasizes both freedom and 26 JULY/AUGUST 2014
workability. This system shows that vibrant Schmid’s innovation was to make it government embodied by the constitution democratic values and efficient governance impossible to initiate a no-confidence vote has been a major precondition for several don’t have to be at odds. It’s a lesson the without proposing a new government at the rounds of large-scale political reform: United States would do well to learn. same time. This ensured that even the most Germany has implemented not one but two serious political crises wouldn’t deprive the ambitious retoolings of its federal system AS THEY SET TO WORK IN THE LATE 1940S, country of a working administration. within the past eight years. The first members of the assembly that drafted West trimmed the power of the upper chamber of Germany’s postwar constitution, the Basic In the early 1950s, German leaders parliament; the second reordered the Law, couldn’t help but reflect on the Nazi added a few critical tweaks to the financial relationships between individual dictatorship and the turbulent (but country’s fledgling political system states and the central government. democratic) Weimar Republic that (though these changes weren’t part of the preceded it. Both experiences had seared Basic Law itself). Notably, they created a Contrary to popular belief, Germans them. Nazi tyranny gave them a profound unique electoral system that gave each aren’t prejudiced against change. And appreciation for the importance of adult citizen two votes: one (the more the Basic Law gives them the space to fundamental human rights, and the important) for a party, and one for a candi- re-engineer as they see fit. framers of the Basic Law correspondingly date. This shrewd bit of political machin- gave a central place to the inviolability of ery biased the system toward coalition: A IT’S WORTH CONTRASTING THIS WITH THE individual freedoms: speech, assembly, person might cast one vote for the Social American cult of constitutionality. The protection against illegal search and Democrats, ensuring that party’s victory piece of paper that regulates U.S. political seizure, gender and ethnic equality. At the in the general election, while simultane- life is the deity at the center of the same time, the trauma of Weimar—when ously giving a vote to an individual nation’s secular religion. Americans treat the lax rules of German interwar democracy Christian Democrat. Moreover, a new the men who authored it as superheroes, all too often sabotaged efforts toward threshold rule determined that a party endowed with transcendent intellect and economic and other national progress—left could only get into parliament if it won at X-ray powers of historical insight. Never the assembly members with an equally least 5 percent of the votes cast, a measure mind that, among many other things, strong concern for effective governance. designed to prevent political fragmenta- these men failed to predict the impor- From 1918 to 1933, opponents of democracy tion and to promote workable majorities. tance of political parties: The Founding had repeatedly exploited the weaknesses of Fathers sneered at “factions,” which they the Weimar political order. Vowing to The Basic Law and other key parts of Ger- saw as regrettable expressions of conflict prevent that from happening again, the many’s system aren’t perfect, of course, but among competing interests. framers of the Basic Law made sure to they’ve done a remarkable job of balancing develop a political framework that created the need for functional government with Today, as it has for so long, a misplaced incentives for cooperation and stability and safeguards against authoritarian excess. reverence for ordinary men who made that preempted gridlock. One big measure of this achievement is the groundbreaking but highly imperfect extraordinary record of political and decisions has contributed to a dangerous The result was a thoroughly federal economic stability that has allowed a refusal to confront the government’s system with a strong separation of powers, country of 82 million people to become the weaknesses head-on. Consider this: The a chief executive whose authority comes world’s fourth-largest economy—right U.S. Constitution has been changed only 27 directly from the parliamentary majority, behind Japan, whose population is about 55 times during the 225 years it has been in and a constitutional court that monitors the percent larger. Yawning budget deficits? effect. The Germans, by contrast, have legality of legislation at all levels. So far, so Runaway inflation? Burgeoning labor amended their constitution 59 times since good. But the framers also added a few unrest? Government shutdowns? Modern it came into force in 1949. crucial innovations. Germans only confront such problems when they read news about other countries. This certainly is not an argument for One was the brainchild of a true genius adopting the German constitutional among the German framers: Carlo Schmid, To be sure, this extraordinary success structure as America’s own. The two a legal scholar of dual German-French was far from given at the end of the 1940s, countries have starkly different histories parentage. (Unsurprisingly, he was a strong when most Germans were still wondering and political environments. Yet the current advocate of European integration long where they’d get their next meal. Some dysfunction in the United States, including before it became a mainstream idea in analysts would surely ascribe this the obvious democratic deficits of the Germany.) Schmid’s greatest contribution remarkable comeback to a specific country’s own Basic Law (2000 presidential to Germany’s nascent constitutional order German “culture” of efficiency. But that election, anyone?), is increasingly prompt- was something called the “constructive raises the question of why these inherent- ing questions about the need for far-reach- no-confidence vote.” Most parliamentary ly efficient Germans managed to stumble ing, systemic reforms. What Germany’s systems have mechanisms that allow from one catastrophe to another for the example shows is that freedom and good members of the legislature to demand the three decades starting in 1914. In fact, it’s governance don’t have to contradict each dissolution of the government when it precisely this tortured history that has other, and that fact should guide change in appears to have lost the confidence of the prompted Germans to appreciate the need the U.S. system. majority. In the Weimar years, Nazis and for strong but flexible institutions. communists repeatedly used such a It may sound crazy at first, but there’s a measure to cripple chancellors and sow The emphasis on continuity ingrained in lot Washington can learn from Berlin. chaos—even when they knew they didn’t the Basic Law, which celebrated its 65th have the votes to offer a viable alternative. anniversary in May, hasn’t prevented Christian Caryl is a contributing editor with Germans from changing its system as FOREIGN POLICY and editor of its Democracy needed. In fact, the guarantee of workable Lab channel. 27FOREIGN POLICY
INBOX • DISPATCH Where the Wild Things Are The lust for rhino horns has fueled a poaching war across southern Africa. But who’s really winning? By Scott C. Johnson SABI SANDS GAME RESERVE, for the animal’s horn, prized for its To track rhinoceroses that have been poached in South Africa,DOMINIC NAHR / MAGNUM PHOTOS alleged curative properties and mark of S SOUTH AFRICA — Conraad de wealth; rampant corruption in South percent of the population and roughly Rosner steps into the Africa; and soaring international prices four times as many as those poached shade of a large marula on the black market. As a result, there is cumulatively between 1980 and 2007. tree and stops. Signaling a multimillion-dollar global conserva- This year, more than 400 had been with his right hand, he whispers a low tion war that stretches across southern brought down by June. Now, park command—“put”—and Landa, a Africa. And de Rosner is a mere foot rangers estimate, two to three rhino 4-year-old Weimaraner, and Anubis, a soldier in the battle against these horns enter the black market each day. young German shepherd in training, nighttime killers. “We do something— “The illegal wildlife trade is huge obediently lie down, taking refuge they adapt. They do something—we business,” says Simon Morgan, director from the African heat. De Rosner peers adapt,” he says, squinting in the midday of Wildlife Act, a conservation NGO that through the bushveld—swales of sandy heat. “They’re watching us as much as works on protecting rhinos in South granite below thick bushes of we’re watching them.” Africa. “But we are getting hammered silver-leafed terminalia and round- on the rhino poaching. There are teams leafed teak—toward an electric fence De Rosner runs K9 Conservation, a out there with radios and guns, and that rhinoceros poachers regularly try company that exclusively targets the they’re having hot contact on a daily to breach. From the other side of the rhino poachers around the Singita Game basis. It’s hectic.” wire comes the sound of a chain saw Reserve, inside the Sabi Sands Game and human voices. He leans into the Reserve, a plot of private land that De Rosner couldn’t agree more. noise and listens for a moment, shares an open border with Kruger “Tourists come here and enjoy the holding his ears forward and monitor- National Park. Nowhere in the world is beautiful bush and look at all the pretty ing the dogs’ response to the nearby the battle fiercer than in and around animals,” he says, “but what they don’t activity. The faraway men, it turns out, Kruger, 20,000 square kilometers of know is that there is a full-blown are just loggers. Satisfied, the conser- rough wilderness in the northeast insurgency going on here. This is a war vationist cradles his elephant gun, a corner of South Africa. About half the to save a species from extinction.” long, single-barreled Remington rifle world’s white rhinos are found here in that fires a 2-inch round, and moves this one park, while other subspecies off into the bush, the dogs bounding are scattered in small pockets of Asia ahead. and East Africa or in private reserves, South Africa is home to roughly 80 game farms, and zoos. And though not percent of the world’s remaining rhinos, yet endangered, white rhinos are being which number about 20,405 white poached so aggressively in South Africa rhinos and 5,055 black rhinos, according today that most experts agree the to conservation group Save the Rhino. species could face extinction in about 10 But that population is in danger of to 20 years if anti-poaching efforts don’t imminent collapse due to a recent, succeed. dramatic increase in poaching. This is fueled by Asia’s reinvigorated appetite More than 1,000 animals were killed for their horns in 2013—that’s about 4 28 JULY/AUGUST 2014
veterinarians often notch the animals’ ears and install microchips inside their horns. despite all this, about 14,000 rhinos populated the country in the early FOR MILLIONS OF YEARS, HERDS OF RHINOS make them easy targets. But conserva- 2000s, and poaching seemed, more or roamed across Africa. The San, the tionist Ian Player set out to change that less, to be under control. original inhabitants of South Africa, in the Umfolozi game reserve (now the created elegant rock paintings and Hluhluwe-iMfolozi) in South Africa’s All of this changed in 2003, when the engravings depicting rhinos as far back KwaZulu-Natal province. His scheme South African government made a as 25,000 years ago. But over the past was fairly straightforward: He shipped critical blunder: It allowed 10 legal century, rhino numbers have risen and some rhinos abroad, including to the rhino hunts to take place on private fallen as wars, insurgencies, hunting, United States, and sent others to South game farms throughout the country. As and poaching have all taken their toll. Africa’s own game farms, where they it happened, the hunting clientele was Black rhinos, which once inhabited large could mate all year in safe conditions. overwhelmingly Vietnamese. (The swaths of north and central Africa, are Against the odds, it worked. By the global economy was booming at that critically endangered, and one subspe- late-1960s, rhino numbers in South time, and Vietnam, like much of Asia, cies, the western black rhinoceros, went Africa had quadrupled to 1,800. was experiencing the growth of its extinct in 2011. middle class; the horn that was said to But in the 1970s and ’80s, as insurgency cure all manner of ailments, from In the late 1950s, poaching and and later civil war raged in Angola, cholera to cancer, was the must-have hunting had reduced South Africa’s soldiers got involved in the trade, luxury item of the day.) After the hunts, rhino population to just 437 animals—all decimating local rhino stocks again. And the South African government recorded of which had been herded into one during the apartheid era, the South the results and the subsequent 72,000-acre site that was much too small African National Defense Force was export—11 trophies and horns, accord- to sustain an entire population. The implicated in widespread poaching ing to Julian Rademeyer, author of number of white rhinos dipped into the abuses. Farmers and game-park owners Killing for Profit, a book about the low hundreds; these plodding, docile also took their share of the horns and illegal rhino trade. creatures roam in open spaces, which sold them on the black market. Yet African horns increased in value, much like the continent’s other natural resources, such as diamonds, coltan, and gold. Just a decade prior, a kilogram might have sold for a few thousand dollars. But now, 1 kilogram of the curving, magnificent horn, which, like the human fingernail, is made of a protein called keratin and which doctors say has no actual medicinal value, could fetch up to $100,000 on the international black market. Thus, in 2008—when the global economy tanked, unleashing economic chaos into an already disorganized illegal market—poaching reached a crisis point. The wealthy set in Asia demanded it; they used the horn as a drug, much like cocaine, and the product became almost fetishized. And the poor in Africa supplied it; in places like Zimbabwe, where inflation and unemployment were high, the illegal trade became an attractive career option. Up until 2008, the population had continued to grow and few were ever killed—by the end of that year, 83 were dead. Meanwhile, large international criminal syndicates began capitalizing on the economic desperation and increased desire for the horn by solidly staking their territory in parks and reserves throughout southern Africa. Consequently, the annual poaching figures have increased exponentially over the past six years. Experts argue 29FOREIGN POLICY
INBOX • DISPATCH that the intensity of the current to measure the response time of risk is proportionate to the financial poaching spree is such that the rhinos’ anti-poaching units. De Rosner even reward. Over Easter weekend in 2014, in death rate will start eclipsing their birth once found a makeshift ladder that was a hugely embarrassing spectacle for the rate as soon as next year—a critical used to scale the fences. And because South African government, a criminal juncture that would mark the beginning the borders between South Africa and syndicate laid siege to a warehouse of species extinction if the killings Mozambique are porous at best, managed by the Mpumalanga Tourism continue unabated. poachers often cross into the reserves and Parks Agency and stole dozens of and camp for days at a time before rhino horns, worth an estimated THE PROLIFERATION OF POACHING RINGS HAS returning home. At other times they $16 million on the black market. made it that much harder for small stage surgical strikes, moving in and out Poachers have also taken to Facebook farms and private game reserves to in a matter of hours. Paid about $5,000 and Instagram, boasting about their protect their herds. And at the ground to make the kill, the shooter is often a conquests and posting pictures of huge level, where de Rosner and his dogs poor man from a nearby village in wads of cash—often U.S. dollars. work, it can be downright dangerous. In Mozambique. But not always. Two Intelligence operatives from Game early May 2014, in the very same park Afrikaner farmers were recently Reserves United, an alliance of parks on where Player took a stand half a century arrested in a poaching incident—a Kruger’s western border, monitor social ago, rangers shot two poachers after a reminder that the trade continues to media like Facebook and WhatsApp to gun battle and retrieved a rifle, two attract people from all across the track the lower-level poachers’ links to horns, and an ax from the site. Within economic spectrum. There are suppli- people already suspected of being the first few months of the year, more ers, informants, resellers, and smug- organized crime bosses in Mozambique than 30 rhinos, including four endan- glers as well; it is a huge and growing and even Vietnam. “They use Facebook gered black rhinos, were poached from network of organized crime. as a brag page,” said one of the opera- the KwaZulu-Natal province alone. The tives, who spoke on the condition that poaching syndicates de Rosner is up “It’s like a chess game out here,” de her name be withheld for safety reasons. against are sophisticated operations. Rosner says, as he hops down from his And because the product has become so Land Cruiser to check out the faded Using informants and geotracking popular, crime groups that historically imprint of a rhino track, a rounded apps, the operatives are able to watch have trafficked in drugs, guns, or people depression in the red dirt about the size the movements of some of the poachers. have begun dabbling in wildlife too, of a salad plate with a few toe marks “They move between South Africa and bringing with them their own kind of outside. The smudge was nearly Mozambique,” she said. “You can see expertise. imperceptible to me, but de Rosner them going over the borders and coming discerned the animal’s direction and the back.” Because poachers are often paid Like de Rosner, the syndicates use track’s freshness—it was at least a day in dollars, intelligence agents have high-powered hunting rifles that can old. Poachers, he said, could be started tracking them through exchange drop a rhino from several hundred watching. The mere presence of a rhino bureaus, placing faces to names as they yards. De Rosner claims he has seen meant that he was on heightened alert. change their dollars into rand. anecdotal reports that the groups have started developing munitions that can From the poacher’s perspective, the But nabbing them red-handed is pierce the body armor that many military anti-poaching units wear, Just 1 kilogram of a rhino horn can sell for up to $100,000 on the international black market. NANA GROSSE WOODLEY/LAIF/REDUX though there’s no evidence of this so far. Poachers have informants and spies, both in the villages that border the parks and deep within the private reserves and public national parks themselves. And if the poachers seem skilled in the art of war, it’s because they are. Many come from Mozambique, where they were trained in guerrilla tactics as soldiers during the civil war that pitted the Marxist-Leninist Frelimo political party against the anti-commu- nist Renamo, which for years received military assistance and training from South Africa’s apartheid government. Poachers will sometimes walk backward to throw rangers off track or put wool socks over their shoes, which erases the imprint in the sand. Many fences in the area are equipped with alarms, and it’s not uncommon for poachers to set off one deliberately just 30 JULY/AUGUST 2014
much more complicated. Kruger “Tourists come tion tactics to cow locals into keeping National Park abuts not only an here and enjoy the quiet. A known poacher recently leveled international border but also a tribal beautiful bush a series of death threats at one of de one, and the connections between and look at all the Rosner’s own rangers when the poacher people and villages on both sides go way pretty animals, discovered what the man did for a back. The park’s establishment in 1926 but what they don’t living, waving a gun in the ranger’s face divided some family groups physically, know is that there and shouting him down in front of his but didn’t sever their ties completely. is a full-blown house. “The villagers are terrified,” de Now, nearly a century later, the insurgency going on Rosner says. “The poachers come in and poaching trade appears to have here. This is a war intimidate and harass them.” provided a means to reconnect. “At the to save a species from end of the day, they’re still family,” the extinction.” TO BE CLEAR, THERE ARE HUGE GOVERNMENT intelligence operative said. resources already in place to combat with intelligence and, in some cases, the problem. Not only has South Africa Even when police manage to arrest a assist in poaching efforts. It’s the deployed both Army and Special Forces poacher who owns a cell phone, it’s not human factor: “People can be bought soldiers—equipped with night-vision much of a victory in terms of breaking off, and everybody has their price,” he goggles and assault rifles—to Kruger, down a ring. Not only are most poachers says. “Some of the cases that have been but it uses drones in some areas to savvy enough to resist recording investigated involve people right from survey the bushveld and scan for signs numbers in their phones, but many also the anti-poaching unit themselves, of poaching. Helicopters are on call 24 throw their phones away after one call, people you think are protecting these hours a day to respond to poaching the operative said. Meanwhile, the animals and people you think you can incidents. Several game reserves have syndicates are multiplying by the day. trust.” Broodryk says he’s confident in hired private security contractors— South African National Parks officials his own teams. some good, some less so—to help patrol estimate that several poaching groups their borders. It’s difficult to find a operate within the borders of Kruger at Lately, an atmosphere of Cold War conservation NGO in the world that any given moment. Groups will come espionage has settled on some villages hasn’t devoted some measure of its time together for two, maybe three, opera- that abut the park. De Rosner, for and money to the cause of rhino conser- tions, then split, and form another instance, runs a network of informants vation. There are rhino ambassadors, group. Syndicates merge, divide, and who provide him with a steady stream iPhone apps, and scores of anti-poach- re-form, all while maintaining a of tips about poaching activities. One ing teams. continuous rhythm of assault against day during my visit, he received a call the rhinos. “It’s really difficult for us,” from a man whom he had caught “If you look at the influx of donations the operative said. poaching years before and who had and support and the number of job spent some time in jail. Now the man creations for South Africa, it is Conservationists, in turn, have wanted to know whether he could help mind-blowing,” says Morgan, of Wildlife deployed an astonishingly creative array de Rosner—he had information about a Act, “but everybody turns a blind eye to of countermeasures. In the Sabi Sands poacher, he claimed, but he was short the other side.” Game Reserve, for instance, rangers on details. have started injecting an herbicide with That “other side” is a confounding indelible ink into the horns of living “What’s the guy’s name?” de Rosner lack of legal enforcement, coupled with rhinos to contaminate the horns and, pressed him. “Get his name and call me widespread corruption within many of ideally, ruin any future potential use. back from a safe place. I don’t want the very institutions that are meant to They’ve posted signs on fence lines and anyone overhearing you.” be protecting rhinos. Rangers say that entrances warning poachers. The dye for prosecutors to even have a case, a isn’t harmful to the rhinos, but consum- He hung up and shook his head. witness must find a poacher with a ing even small amounts of a poisoned “A lot of these guys just want money,” gun—and the bullets must be traced horn would be injurious, if not lethal, to he said, “and I will pay if the information back to a downed rhino. Whereas humans. (The government prohibited the is good. But you have to prove that it’s Botswana has a “shoot on sight” policy inclusion of arsenic in the serum because good. And if you lie to me, I will find out.” for rangers who spot poachers, South if an arsenic-laden horn were linked to a Poachers, meanwhile, use intimida- African rangers are not allowed to fire death, the government could potentially unless fired upon, which poachers be charged with premeditated murder, rarely do because they know that they according to Mark Broodryk, Singita’s can simply drop their weapons and run. chief ranger.) Like banks that use various dyes to mark legal tender, In the past six years of carnage in the poison also gives conservationists a South Africa, few poachers have been leg up when it comes to tracking sentenced to prison. Between 2010 and poached horns. mid-2012, for example, some 573 people were arrested; the country’s success rate Another consistent problem, says is about one arrest for every two rhinos Broodryk, is that the syndicates have killed. Yet between 2011 and 2012 only successfully penetrated many parks and 28 poachers were convicted. And though have inside sources who provide them some high-profile cases do emerge—a 31FOREIGN POLICY
INBOX • DISPATCH A poached rhino lies dead at Shingalana private game reserve in South Africa, after being killed for its horns. sighting. When they arrived, the dogs immediately picked up the poachers’ Thai national was recently given a counter that it would be tantamount to scent, and de Rosner’s team laid an DOMINIC NAHR / MAGNUM PHOTOS 40-year sentence for poaching in South admitting defeat against the poachers ambush in the dark using night-vision Africa—most people get off with little and say there’s little evidence it would goggles. Two poachers walked straight more than a fine for trespassing or diminish poaching. South Africa may into it, and de Rosner’s crew nabbed illegal possession of a firearm, which make a decision on legalization as early both of them without firing a shot. only involves a few weeks of jail time. as 2016. Intelligence officers interrogated the Higher-ups in the syndicates will men and ultimately arrested another usually bail out low-level shooters, who Over the years, there have been some more senior figure in a local poaching then often disappear. To top it off, the efforts to curtail demand. In 1993, China syndicate. All three South Africans are South African government still allows, enacted a series of stiff penalties on the now in jail. albeit in a limited capacity, permits for importation, sale, and possession of the hunting rhinos; that is to say, each year horn. But those efforts have been De Rosner attributed his success to the a few selected individuals from difficult to enforce and have yet to bear dogs. “We’re a pack,” he says. “I am just countries not associated with poaching fruit. Today, some people are being as much a part of the pack as they are.” syndicates are given licenses to more creative with their approaches. De Rosner and his girlfriend, Catherine legitimately hunt rhinos. Activists in Vietnam, like Thu Minh, one Corrett, a 28-year-old Londoner, live with of the country’s most famous singers, the dogs and train them for multiple And for all the efforts to combat have been pushing for education tasks. The Weimaraner, for instance, a illegal poaching, legal loopholes still programs that would help strip the horn 300-year-old German hunting breed allow cunning crime bosses or even of its misplaced mystique. with silvery skin and long, floppy ears, government officials to skirt the tracks people and animals. De Rosner’s prohibitions that do exist. For example, ON A COOL AUTUMN EVENING, DE ROSNER AND lead hound, Landa, which means “the in 2008 a Vietnamese diplomat was two members of his anti-poaching team one who finds the tracks” in the local caught on film taking possession of sat around a tiny campfire on one edge dialect, knows to sniff for rhinos, while rhino horns in front of the embassy in of the Singita reserve eating boerewors the German shepherds, like Anubis, Pretoria. De Rosner has no comment on and smoking cigarettes. The makeshift a huge inky-black beast named after these events. “All of that is way above camp is what de Rosner calls a “listen- the Egyptian lord of the underworld, me,” he says. “All we can do is be out ing post,” a strategic spot from which are tasked with protection and chasing here, every night, every day, making his team can monitor the fence lines maneuvers. Both breeds can sniff for sure they don’t take another one on our and be ready to spring into action. It spent cartridges and injured people watch.” wasn’t too far from here, in late 2013, or animals. Whereas regular rangers that a rhino was shot, its horn stripped, can track during the day only, while One possible, but very contentious, and the body left to rot. Apart from the parks are open, de Rosner’s group solution that has been floated would be that, however, the presence of de often takes the dogs out at night, on to legalize the trade in horns. Propo- Rosner’s canine unit in Singita has been foot, for hours on end to keep tabs on nents say it would strip the horns of successful. Just weeks after that poachers. He’s aided by thermal their luxury value and allow farmers to incident, de Rosner and his group night-vision goggles and infrared peacefully cultivate and sell the product responded to a call of a poacher camera technology, but it’s the dogs in a regulated environment. Opponents that tell him where to go. As de Rosner and his team watched the fire at the listening post, the bushveld hummed with the sound of unknown animals. There was no moon—ideal for poachers who want to use the cover of darkness. Peter Wearn, one of de Rosner’s colleagues, occasionally shined a flashlight into the darkness to check for predators. “You never know,” he said. “One minute you’re sitting here, and the next minute you look up and six lions are right there, staring back at you.” “Or people,” de Rosner said. “That’s what scares me the most out here. It’s not the animals. It’s people.” Scott C. Johnson is the former bureau chief for Newsweek in South Africa. His book, The Wolf and the Watchman: A Father, a Son, and the CIA, was longlisted for the National Book Award in 2013. 32 JULY/AUGUST 2014
INBOX • EPIPHANIES The Ukraine crisis was a the United States is trying to do product, in large part, of the same thing in Russia. When the policy of indefinite people started demonstrations expansion of NATO to the east. in Moscow the year before last If there had been no possibility and Washington made it of Ukraine ever becoming part publicly clear it was dismayed of NATO, and therefore Sevasto- by Putin coming back into the pol becoming a NATO base, presidency—that was not very Russia would not have invaded smart diplomacy. You may not Crimea. It is as simple as that. like him, but you shut up if you’ve gotta deal with the guy. Americans have lived for nearly two centuries with the In the case of Syria, there was Monroe Doctrine. Why don’t we a definite difference of opinion understand that other countries about what the impact of are sensitive about military bases trying to remove Bashar from potential rivals not only com- al-Assad would be. The ing up to their Russians were borders, but taking convinced that al land which they have When people Qaeda would seize historically started a good part of the considered theirs? territory. So the These are extremely demonstrations idea that they are Jack Matlock emotional issues— in Moscow the helping keep Assad issues that are made year before in power: Yes, they U.S. Ambassador to the Soviet Union, 1987-1991 to order for any last and are! They are afraid authoritarian ruler of what would INTERVIEW BY ELIAS GROLL | ILLUSTRATION BY ROBERT BALL that wants to Washington happen to the The post-Cold War order that reigned over Eastern strengthen his rule. made it publicly country. They have Europe for more than two decades is cracking—some pointed out that might even say shattering. In Kiev, the tumultuous It was our goal in clear it was America didn’t do Maidan revolution gave birth to a fragile new govern- ment, and Ukraine is still teetering on the verge of civil 1991 to try to dismayed by all that well in Iraq, war. The Crimean peninsula now belongs to keep the republics Putin coming invading it. We Russia, which has also massed troops for months along of the Soviet haven’t done all Ukraine’s eastern border. And amid the chaos, Washing- ton and Moscow have relentlessly traded angry insults Union, other than back into the that great in Libya. over which of them is to blame for the unrest. Indeed, the three Baltic presidency— Why the hell do we relations between the United States and Russia have states, together in that was not want to keep on? arguably reached their lowest point since the fall of the some sort of The American Soviet Union. As Jack Matlock sees it, the situation likely could have been avoided: From 1987 to 1991, Matlock federation. We very smart people certainly was the U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union, where he didn’t force the diplomacy. don’t want us to. had a front-row seat to the end of the Cold War, and he breakup of the But you have sees current tensions as largely the result of poor policy choices in the intervening decades. FOREIGN POLICY spoke Soviet Union. To almost a clique in with Matlock in June about U.S.-Russia diplomacy, NATO expansion, and whether all the furious criticisms of think that you can Washington that President Barack Obama’s foreign policy hold water. just treat the states as if they just can’t look at any atrocity in were traditionally independent the world without wanting the countries with a sort of a United States to get involved hands-off relationship to each militarily. other is simply absurd. I think Obama is moving in the The basic concept of the right direction in general. I’m Obama administration’s with his foreign policy about 80 “reset” had the flaw that the percent, and most of the United States continued to, criticism of him, I think, has quote, “support democratic been quite unfounded—these forces within Russia.” What ridiculous investigations over Vladimir Putin believes is that Benghazi and now over the the Orange Revolution in prisoner release. I’m almost Ukraine, the Rose Revolution in ashamed of our politics. Obama Georgia were plots actually is handling those things as well organized by the CIA and that as he can. 33FOREIGN POLICY
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Kyleanne Hunter is a former officer in the United States Marine Corps, serving as an AH-1W Super Cobra attack pilot. Now she’s a Sié Fellow at the Josef Korbel School’s Sié Chéou-Kang Center for International Security & Diplomacy. As such she’s working alongside world renowned faculty doing relevant research on today’s most pressing global issues. To learn more about our master of arts programs and our two-year full tuition scholarship, the Sié Fellowship, call 303.871.2544 or email [email protected]. www.du.edu/korbel/info
University of Ottawa A school where public policy and international affairs come together Created in 2007, the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs (GSPIA) is a focal point for debate on public policy and international affairs. Excellence is our purpose and public affairs is our passion. GSPIA — unique and exceptional t %FEJDBUFE XPSMEDMBTTTDIPMBSTFOHBHFEJODVUUJOHFEHF SFTFBSDIBOEUPQRVBMJUZUFBDIJOH t \"QMBDFXIFSFUIFPSZBOEQSBDUJDFDPNFUPHFUIFS UISPVHIUIFDPOUSJCVUJPOPGPOTJUFQSBDUJUJPOFSTXJUI exceptional experience t 5IFPOMZCJMJOHVBMTDIPPMPGQVCMJDBOEJOUFSOBUJPOBM BõBJSTJO$BOBEBXIFSFDPVSTFTBSFUBVHIUJOCPUI PöDJBMMBOHVBHFT t -PDBUFEJOUIFIFBSUPG the national capital, the centre of our country’s HPWFSONFOUBOEUIFIVC PGJUTEJQMPNBUJDBõBJST \"HMPCBMWJTJPO www.socialsciences.uOttawa.ca/api 613-562-5800, ext. 2834 9
3 International Campuses 10 Regional Areas of Study 17 Languages Doctor of Philosophy Master of Arts in International Relations One SAIS. Master of International Public Policy (for experienced professionals) Shape and lead today’s global affairs Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance with an experience that is truly Master of Arts in International Affairs international. Choose from 10 (Bologna; research-oriented program) regional areas of study and the most Master of Arts in International Studies relevant policy issues with a solid (Nanjing; for Mandarin speakers) foundation in core international Certificate in Chinese and American Studies relations theory, economics, and (Nanjing; for Mandarin speakers) language studies. From international Diploma in International Studies (Bologna) finance and energy to East Asian studies and conflict management, The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies SAIS gives you cutting-edge insights on the most vexing issues. 1740 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 +001.202.663.5700 Bologna Center, Via Belmeloro, 11, 40126 Bologna, Italy +39.051.2917.811 Hopkins-Nanjing Center, 162 Shanghai Rd., Nanjing Jiansu Province 210093, People’s Republic of China +001.202.663.5800 www.sais-jhu.edu facebook.com/SAISHopkins @SAISHopkins instagram.com/SAISHopkins
Brian Camblin ‘13 UC San Diego Program 2τFHUNational JOIN A NEW GENERATION 'HPRFUDWLF OF LEADERSHIP ,QVWLWXWH :DVKLQJWRQ'& CHOOSE YOUR CAREER FOCUS: Elisabeth Best ‘12 0U[LYUH[PVUHS+L]LSVWTLU[ 5VUWYVÄ[4HUHNLTLU[c0U[LYUH[PVUHS,JVUVTPJZ Senior Analyst 0U[LYUH[PVUHS,U]PYVUTLU[HS7VSPJ`c0U[LYUH[PVUHS4HUHNLTLU[ for International 0U[LYUH[PVUHS7VSP[PJZc7\\ISPJ7VSPJ` Government $σDLUV4XDOFRPP UC SAN DIEGO OFFERS: 6DQ'LHJR&$ 9LNPVUHSZWLJPHSPaH[PVUZ!*OPUH1HWHU2VYLH3H[PU(TLYPJH:V\\[OLHZ[(ZPH 'DQLHO'XUD]Rã 5PULYLZLHYJOJLU[LYZIYPKNPUNWVSPJ`HUKWYHJ[PJL )RUHLJQ6HUYLFH 5\\TILYVULYHURLK\\UP]LYZP[`MVYW\\ISPJZLY]PJL[OJVUZLJ\\[P]L`LHY 2τFHU866WDWH Department — Washington Monthly 7HJXFLJDOSD +RQGXUDV School of International Relations Visit irps.ucsd.edu/programs and Pacific Studies Contact us at [email protected] 11 01.858.534.5914
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advance_democracy Advance meaningful change around the world. Our top- ranked graduate program in International Affairs offers an interdisciplinary approach to addressing global issues. www.newschool.edu/ia1 THE NEW SCHOOL An Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Institution
master’s program in global affairs Jackson Institute for Global A≠airs at Yale University Create your own path to global leadership. admissions period opens mid-august We recognize there is more than one way to enter a career in the global arena. Our program will allow you to design your own path through an individualized applications due course of study. This intellectually demanding and diverse program will provide january 2 you with the theoretical foundations and analytical skills necessary for working within the complexity of today’s public, nonprofit and private sectors worldwide. jackson.yale.edu 203.432.6253 15
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