Foreign Policy 2017 01-02

2 50 THE DEMOGRAPHICS ISSUE JAN/FEB 2017 $8.99 U.S./CAN

Let’s rethink aging.

There are more people on the planet than ever before and they’re living longer, healthier lives. They’re exploring new territories and pioneering new behaviors, like reinventing how we work live and play. AARP is committed to changing how we think about aging – one that is not based on a number, but based on an individual’s contribution and living the way he or she wishes regardless of age. We can all change the dynamic. Let’s seize the opportunity to create a new vision for aging – one complete with new stories, new innovations, and new civic solutions. Let’s show how a global culture of multigenerational collaboration can make the world a better place for all. Join us today. aarpDisruptAging.org



contents 01|02.2017 030 Here’s Looking at You, 2050 How a less Christian Europe, an aging population, and women’s empowerment will shape the world. by PAUL TAYLOR 038 Women vs. the Machine AI will soon be smarter than humans. But it will be just as racist and sexist as its creators. by ERIKA HAYASAKI 048 The Last White Africans Do Afrikaners—the people responsible for South African apartheid—have a claim to their country’s future? by EVE FAIRBANKS 056 Listen to the Voices in Your Head People with schizophrenia are often told there’s no cure. Now a radical movement says they might not be sick at all. by SAMANTHA M. SHAPIRO ON THE COVER PHOTOGRAPH BY Pablo Delcan Photograph by JODI BIEBER

Ukraine today is a country of growth and opportunity despite its fearless fight against Russian aggression. The Ukrainian people, inspired by the Revolution of Dignity on Kyiv’s Independence Square in 2013-2014, are implementing an unprecedented string of comprehensive reforms led by the President of Ukraine and the Government. #followukraine Ukraine has achieved macro financial stabilization after 9.9% GDP fall in 2015. It is set for 1.5 % GDP growth in 2016 and is forecasted by IMF to grow by 2.5% in 2017. Ukraine has climbed 32 ranks since 2014 in the WB’s Ease of Doing Business Report. Free Trade Agreements with the EU and Canada open new opportunities for business. Ukraine becomes a destination for cross-sector investments, leading in IT and agribusiness. Ukraine features abundant natural resources, cost-competitive manufacturing, and a highly skilled labor force. Ukraine has built an anti-corruption framework from scratch to improve its business climate and ensure the rule of law in addition to putting in place new mechanisms to ensure transparency. Ukraine’s e-procurement system ProZorro has eliminated unfair bidding schemes and gained international recognition, receiving the Open Governance Award 2016 and World Procurement Award 2016. Image inspired by Kazimir Malevich, the Ukrainian artist and founder of the Suprematist avant-garde art. See more at www.secondfloor.gallery/en/ @Ukraine.

contents 01|02.2017 Sightlines Observation Deck 010 066 APERTURE The Mothers MAPPA MUNDI photographs by KAROLIN KLÜPPEL Age Boom 018 by DAVID ROTHKOPF THE THINGS THEY CARRIED 068 The Needle Exchanger NATIONAL SECURITY interview by CATARINA Bigly Brother FERNANDES MARTINS by JAMES BAMFORD 020 VISUAL STATEMENT 070 Divide and Profit by KENNARDPHILLIPPS ECONOMICS 022 The Emperor Has DECODER No Clothes The Slave Insurance by GILLIAN TETT Market 072 by MICHAEL RALPH and WILLIAM RANKIN BOOKS & CULTURE 024 Reading in the Dark INNOVATIONS by ADAM KIRSCH Facial Recognition for Fish, Performance- 074 Enhancing Headphones, THE FIXER and More Out and About in by ELIZA STRICKLAND Colombo 026 interview by AMANTHA PERERA THE EXCHANGE 007 Contributors Eamon Gilmore and 076 The Final Word Saleem Haddad on Human Rights

David Rothkopf CEO AND EDITOR, THE FP GROUP Mindy Kay Bricker Benjamin Pauker Lara Jakes EXECUTIVE EDITOR, PRINT EXECUTIVE EDITOR, ONLINE MANAGING EDITOR, NEWS Seyward Darby Rebecca Frankel Keith Johnson DEPUTY EDITOR, PRINT DEPUTY EDITOR, ONLINE DEPUTY MANAGING EDITOR, NEWS Cláudia de Almeida, Margaret Swart (o Banquinho) Adam Griffiths CREATIVE DIRECTORS, PRINT CREATIVE DIRECTOR, ONLINE Amanda Silverman Amy Finnerty Cameron Abadi STORY EDITOR, PRINT BOOKS AND CULTURE EDITOR, PRINT SENIOR EDITOR, ONLINE SENIOR EDITOR, TEA LEAF NATION SENIOR STAFF WRITERS David Wertime Dan De Luce, Colum Lynch MIDDLE EAST EDITOR SENIOR REPORTERS David Kenner David Francis, John Hudson, Molly O’Toole AFRICA EDITOR STAFF WRITERS Ty McCormick Robbie Gramer, Elias Groll, Paul ASIA EDITOR McLeary, Emily Tamkin James Palmer COPY CHIEF EUROPE EDITOR Michael Crescione Alicia P.Q. Wittmeyer DEPUTY COPY EDITOR ASSOCIATE EDITORS Shannon Schweitzer Jake Scobey-Thal, Reid Standish COPY EDITOR ASSISTANT EDITORS Brian E. Stout Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian, INTERACTIVES AND EDITORIAL Ilya Lozovsky, FEATURE DESIGNER Benjamin Soloway C.K. Hickey FELLOWS VICE PRESIDENT, EVENTS CONTRIBUTING EDITORS William Inboden, Charles Kenny, Ruby Mellen, Kavitha Surana Christina Larson, Aaron David Grace Rooney Daniel Altman, John Arquilla, Miller, Thomas E. Ricks, J. Peter DIGITAL INTERN Peter Bergen, David Bosco, Scoblic, James Traub, Stephen M. DIRECTOR, EVENTS Ian Bremmer, Rosa Brooks, Walt, Micah Zenko Noah Buyon Christian Caryl, Mohamed A. Stephanie Cherkezian El-Erian, Peter D. Feaver, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT AND CHIEF David E. Hoffman, PRESS DIRECTOR REVENUE OFFICER 2009 NATIONAL MAGAZINE AWARD Maria Ory Christopher Cotnoir GENERAL EXCELLENCE SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT, ADVERTISING SALES CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER Foreign Policy SUBSCRIPTIONS SUBSCRIBER SERVICES Duc Luu Foreign Policy, P.O. Box 283, Congers, NY 10920- Allen Chin 11 Dupont Circle NW, Suite 600 0283; ForeignPolicy.com/subscription-services; VICE PRESIDENT, EDUCATION SALES Washington, D.C. 20036 e-mail: [email protected]; (800) 535-6343 in ASSISTANT TO THE CEO PUBLISHING OFFICE U.S.; (845) 267-3050 outside U.S.; Publications Keith Arends (202) 728-7300 mail agreement no. 40778561. Rates (in U.S. Cathryn Hunt SUBSCRIPTIONS funds): $59.99 for one year. NEWSSTAND AND DIRECTOR OF MARKETING AND AD (800) 535-6343 BOOKSTORE DISTRIBUTION Curtis Circulation JUNIOR ACCOUNTANT OPERATIONS Company, 730 River Road, New Milford, NJ 07646- ADVERTISING 3048; (201) 634-7400. BACK ISSUES $10.95 Henry Riggs Matthew J. Curry (202) 728-7310 per copy. International airmail add $3.00 per copy; online: ForeignPolicy.com/buy-back-issues; e-mail: 6 JAN | FEB 2017 ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR, ADVERTISING © 2016 by The FP Group, a division of Graham [email protected]. SYNDICATION REQUESTS Holdings Company, which bears no responsibility Contact Matthew Curry (202) 728-7351; Ben Rodabaugh for the editorial content; the views expressed in [email protected]. OTHER the articles are those of the authors. No part of this PERMISSION REQUESTS Copyright Clearance MARKETING ASSOCIATE publication may be reproduced in any form without Center, Inc. (978) 750-8400; www.copyright.com. permission in writing from the publisher. Hanna Berman SALES AND MARKETING SUPPORT ASSOCIATE Jonathan Chan SENIOR WEB DEVELOPER Saxon Stiller WEB DEVELOPERS Priya Nannapaneni, David Varndell

contributors 01|02.2017 KEVIN VAN AELST Samantha M. Eve Fairbanks Erika Hayasaki Paul Taylor Shapiro “Why are ships and boats is an American is a professor in the is a former executive referred to as ‘she’? is a New York City- writer based in literary journalism vice president of the based journalist. A South Africa and program at the Uni- Pew Research Cen- Is R2-D2 male, or was that former staff writer a 2013 nominee versity of California, ter and was a politics just the assumption that at the Stranger and for the Livingston Irvine. She is a for- reporter and foreign I made as a kid? Siri’s the Forward, she is Award. Her work has mer reporter with the correspondent with now a contributing appeared in the New Los Angeles Times. the Washington Post. voice can now be switched writer for the New York Times Maga- Her writing has also He is the author of easily to male, but why is York Times Magazine. zine and the New appeared in Wired, The Next America: the default female? These Her writing has also Republic, among Newsweek, and the Boomers, Millenni- are some of the questions appeared in Wired, other outlets. She Atlantic, among other als, and the Looming I asked myself as I put ESPN, and Mother is currently work- publications. She Generational Show- together the images. I still Jones, among other ing on a book about is the author of The down. He now serves newspapers and post-apartheid Death Class: A True as a senior fellow at imagine machines like my magazines. South Africa. Story About Life. Encore.org. laptop, my camera, and my thermostat as having brains inside their cir- cuitry, and I have thought about the people who built those brains. Now I am wondering what kinds of identities and person- alities devices are meant to have and what that says about the future. I like the idea of program- mers making gender decisions—whether machines are male or female—as effortlessly and perhaps as arbitrarily as flipping a switch.” P. 38 HAYASAKI: PAT BRIGHT FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 7



APERTURE THE THINGS VISUAL STATEMENT DECODER INNOVATIONS THE EXCHANGE An ancient Chinese An outrageous, U.S. slavehold- An electric tourni- Politician Eamon matriarchy where THEY CARRIED belligerent soul ers didn’t just quet, saving fish Gilmore and writer women get busy The needle exchang- like Donald own people. They by shooting them, Saleem Haddad with multiple hus- er who started Trump is hard- rented them and headphones on the West’s bands fades into a competition to wired against out—and insured that zap athletes’ cherry-picking of obscurity. | P. 10 build a better cooperation. | P. 20 them. | P. 22 brains. | P. 24 human rights. | P. 26 crack pipe. | P. 18 “Human rights don’t operate in a vacuum. They operate within power structures.” | P. 26 Illustration by JULIEN PRIEZ



aperture SIGHTLINES photographs by KAROLIN KLÜPPEL The Mothers In the foothills of the Chinese Himalayas, a matriarchy reigns. Straddling Sichuan and Yun- nan provinces, Lugu Lake is a home of the Mosuo, an ethnic minority of around 40,000 peo- ple. For generations, women like Asa Nuja (left), 69, have been the heads of their Mosuo house- holds, responsible for pass- ing down property and family names. Children are bound to their mothers, who can change partners as they wish. Men may visit their current spouses only at night—a tradition known as “walking marriages.” Today, though, an influx of Han Chinese to the region and the flight of younger Mosuo from their villages are eroding an ancient way of life. Asa Nuja’s daughters have rejected walk- ing marriages, choosing to leave their family home to wed Han Chinese men and commit to more traditional partnerships. German photographer Karolin Klüppel spent a few months over the past two years with Mosuo women, known as the Dabu, who are trying to maintain their tra- ditional practices. “By capturing the quiet and dignified rhythm of their daily lives,” Klüppel explains, “I also record a culture that is in danger of vanishing.” FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 11

aperture Above: Du Zhi Ma, 61, holds a Above: Pema Lamu, 73, sits in her portrait of her children taken 35 bedroom in the village of Zhashi. years ago. Now grown, two of her Like many Dabu, her body is three children have left their vil- weathered from years spent work- lage to pursue better work oppor- ing in fields. While men help with tunities in the city of Lijiang. heavier labor, women are respon- Below: Geiku Dorma, 77, stands in sible for farm work. Below: Du Zhi her home. She makes ends meet Ma’s household, like most in the through her region’s burgeon- area, does not have running water. ing tourism industry. Her family Each day, the family bathes in a recently opened a restaurant plastic bin that they manually fill to cater to visitors who come from a source in their garden. to experience Mosuo culture and Lugu Lake’s natural beauty. 12 JAN | FEB 2017

SIGHTLINES For the Mosuo, old wooden boats Above: Asa Pure, 67, looks out the are still an important means of window of her home. Below: a plas- transportation. No motorboats are tic covering protects her produce. allowed on the lake because they Asa Pure was young when the Red would pollute the water. The lake is Army came to her region in the late important to local folklore. Accord- 1950s. Over the next few decades, ing to the Mosuo’s Daba religion, Communists tried to dismantle a mother goddess, Gemu, resides much of the Mosuo’s traditions, in a local mountain, and Lugu Lake burning monasteries and prayer was formed from her tears after books and outlawing walking mar- a spirit lover spurned her. riages. That practice continues in many homes, yet the Dabu consider the rise of communism to be the beginning of their culture’s end. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 13

aperture 14 JAN | FEB 2017

SIGHTLINES FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 15

aperture Naju Dorma, 73, and Lacuo Dorma, Du Zhi Ma lives in the village of 66, from the village of Luoshui, Zhashi. She has been with her don traditional garb. According to partner, Gan Ru, since she was Naju Dorma, some Han Chinese 18. He spends a lot of time in now dress like the Mosuo to her home, but he still officially trick tourists and make money lives with his mother. by working as guides or selling clothes and jewelry. While many Mosuo appreciate the economic opportunities that tourism has brought to their region, they worry about the long-term effects of hotel strips and kitschy gift shops. 16 JAN | FEB 2017

SIGHTLINES Dashi Lamu, 72, visits the banks of Lugu Lake near her village of Luoshui. Every morning, women meet here for prayer. The Mosuo practice two religions: Daba and Tibetan Buddhism. These days, Buddhism plays a much more prominent role in daily life than it did in past generations. Monks and prayer flags are abundant, and most Mosuo have statues of Buddhist deities in their homes. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 17

2 The Needle 1 Exchanger Marta Nascimento 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cellphone Pants Safety vest Informational Condoms Plastic container pamphlet I give our work We encourage users This helps users STDs are a huge Used needles can number to anyone to collect their dis- recognize me when These fliers show problem in the pass HIV or hep- who wants it. Users carded material, it’s dark. I have to the safest way to drug-user commu- atitis, and the call when they but we help them. be careful, though, inject. I don’t ever nity. They become frequency of trans- need new needles I always cover my because police look judge users on their an even bigger mission is a real or a safe place to legs when pick- out for it, too. Even methods, but I do issue when users health crisis. When stay the night. One ing up needles to though personal explain that certain make money doing we visit neighbor- of my patients used keep from getting drug use is not a areas of the body sex work. I always hoods, users to call frequently, stabbed. In sum- crime, users com- present greater give them condoms deposit old spikes threatening sui- mer, I wear loose plain about police risk. For example, and, if they ask into the containers cide. Eventually satin trousers brutality. I try my shooting into your for it, lube, which and take the new he went to an to stay cool. In win- best to avoid meet- legs increases the can minimize vag- ones. Containers addiction rehabili- ter, I prefer leg- ing users if police chance of a danger- inal tearing and are then burned as tation program. gings or jeans. are in the area. ous blood clot. bleeding. a precaution. 18 JAN | FEB 2017 Photographs by NUNO PATRÍCIO

the things they carried SIGHTLINES interview by CATARINA FERNANDES MARTINS 7 6 IT’S ALMOST MIDNIGHT when Marta Nasci- mento strides up to a young sex worker 10 8 and her john who are loitering in Lisbon’s run-down Martim Moniz neighborhood. 9 9 Nascimento opens her backpack, which is brimming with syringes, aluminum foil, 7 8 Crack pipe 10 and crack pipes. The sex worker asks only for condoms, though—she doesn’t need Aluminum foil Tongs I also give pipes to Notepad drug paraphernalia tonight. Confused, the crack users. They john asks if Nascimento is carrying. “She We give foil out to I used to wear latex have complained Once I’m out of doesn’t sell drugs,” the sex worker explains, people who smoke gloves when pick- about the design, sight, I write “just distributes the material to do them.” heroin. Some users ing up syringes and which they say is down pertinent are surprised we other trash from difficult to smoke information: the Zipping up the backpack after handing hand out the sheets the street. Now and clean because patient’s medical the woman several condoms, Nascimento and not just the I also use these the metal filter is issues, how many interjects to correct her: “It’s to make doing new needles. We tongs. They were a difficult to remove. new needles were drugs less risky.” like to encourage gift from one of my I came up with a exchanged. Per- people to smoke patients. He, like competition: Who- sonal information A psychologist by training, Nascimento, instead of inject, many users, col- ever finds a way to is confidential, but 37, works for Crescer na Maior, a public which is more dan- lects scrap metal to remove it more eas- the general data health organization that facilitates needle gerous, and most make money. He ily gets 50 euros. help us apply for and pipe exchanges among Lisbon’s drug users don’t have found these and government fund- users. The group’s methods reflect Por- money to buy foil. thought of me. ing each year. tugal’s unique drug policies. In 2001, the country became the first in the world to decriminalize personal use of all narcotics. Dealing and trafficking are still illegal, but individuals are allowed to possess small amounts—up to two grams of cocaine, for example—without running afoul of the law. The government has also invested in harm-reduction initiatives for addicts, including methadone programs and needle exchanges. (Crescer na Maior is partially state-funded.) The results have been signif- icant: From 2001 to 2014, new AIDS cases among drug users fell from 518 to just 42. Not everyone supports the government’s approach. Nascimento says users and even some colleagues have been harassed for what critics say is “enabling drug use.” Yet she sees her work as necessary. “I don’t believe a drugs-free world is possible. Some people will always turn to substances to find solutions to their problems,” Nasci- mento told FOREIGN POLICY in October. “This way, we’re improving their lives.” FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 19

visual statement by KENNARDPHILLIPPS

TRUMP: GETTYIMAGES SIGHTLINES “American ideals are in tatters, with the rich living in policed penthouses and the poor against a backdrop of drought, disease, and poisoned water. Donald Trump was elected on a post-fact wave of anger to sort it all out, but he only aims to divide and profit from the scrapheap that Earth is fast becoming. His simplistic, violent rhetoric originates in his self-perception as a king. He believes that corporate might is an absolute right— no matter the destructive impact corporations have on the planet and its people. Will such an outrageous, belligerent soul ever compro- mise or embrace coopera- tion? Because he likely won’t, resistance is required. As Walt Whitman, the great American poet of democracy, wrote: “Unscrew the locks from the doors!/ Unscrew the doors themselves from their jambs!/ Whoever degrades another degrades me.” THE ARTISTS FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 21

decoder by MICHAEL RALPH and WILLIAM RANKIN The Slave OCCUPATIONAL HAZARDS In January 1855, Thomas In October 1853, William Insurance Market Steamboat work on the Ohio River and Doswell insured seven Easter of Baltimore insured coal mining in Virginia were dangerous slaves to work in the coal his slave Jane Cole, 21, for RECENT PORTRAYALS of American slavery— jobs and usually involved slaves traveling pits of Kanawha County, in $250 to be a servant in from 12 Years a Slave and Django Unchained and living away from their owners. Slaves what is now West Virginia. the home of John Denning, to Walter Johnson’s River of Dark Dreams in coastal cities did not travel as far, but Two older slaves—Nathan a local slave dealer. Cole and Sven Beckert’s Empire of Cotton—have since their specialized skills—whether and Reuben—were insured died just two months later. emphasized the brutal violence on cotton domestic, artisanal, or industrial—were for $500 each, and the oth- (Denning later moved out plantations in the years preceding the Civil often procured through short-term con- ers—Turner, another slave of the city to become a War. What they miss is that during the same tracts, they, too, usually worked without named Reuben, Richard, planter; in 1860, he owned period, slaves that were engaged in other the direct oversight of their owners. Emanuel, and Aaron—were 10 slaves.) enterprises developed skills that placed insured for $700. (The them at the heart of industrial capitalism. Ohio River Valley average slave price in 1855 was $600.) Doswell owned Especially after the slave trade was a large plantation outside outlawed in 1808, planters found ways to Richmond, Virginia; in 1860, keep human bondage profitable, includ- he owned 89 slaves. ing smuggling, controlled breeding, and renting slaves to business owners. This last Virginia option became especially pervasive in Vir- Coal Fields ginia and the port cities of the Ohio River and Atlantic Coast. A slew of industries— Atlantic from blacksmithing and carpentry to large- Port Cities scale railroad construction, coal mining, and steamboat operations—were fortified STEAMBOATS by the skilled labor of the enslaved. MINING ALL OTHER These men and women became such valuable assets, in fact, that their owners In September 1843, Dan- In February 1857, the hir- In January 1855, Richmond sought to insure them as such. By the 1840s, iel Zacharias of Frederick, ing agency Tompkins & Co. merchant Joseph Winston the number of slaves insured in the South Maryland, insured his slave insured 14 slaves—ages insured his slave Andrew, mirrored the number of free whites with life Robert Randall, 27, a brick- 12 through 50—to work in 11, for $400 to work in a insurance in the North—and both kinds of maker, for $200. Randall the Black Heath Coal Pits cotton factory across the policies could be issued by the same com- died near the end of the in Chesterfield County, river in Manchester. The panies. Slave insurance was one of the ear- seven-year policy. Virginia, for one year. They policy was for seven years, liest forms of industrial risk management, were owned by a few dif- but Andrew died that providing an important source of revenue ferent people, including December. for some of today’s largest multinational Joseph Tompkins himself, insurance companies. It also makes clear and the value of the policies Natchez, MS that the recent economic crisis, driven by was over $800 per slave. 21 NEW YORK LIFE credit default swaps, was not the first time (In 1857, the average slave new financial instruments, utilized by AIG price was $636.) and its peers, shaped the lives of U.S. work- ers. And it won’t be the last. Database by Michael Ralph, with additions and mapping by William Rankin. Sources: California Department of Insurance, Slavery Era Insurance Registry, 2002; Nancy Frantel, ed. Chesterfield County, Virginia, Uncovered, 2008; Illinois Depart- ment of Insurance, Slavery Era Insurance Policies Registry, 2004; Baltimore Life Insurance Co. collection, MS 175, Maryland Historical Society; and Virginia Historical Society, unknownnolonger.vahistorical.org. Special thanks to Sharon Ann Murphy. 22 JAN | FEB 2017

SIGHTLINES Lexington, KY Richmond, VA Washington, D.C. 115 AIG US LIFE 247 BALTIMORE LIFE 11 BALTIMORE LIFE 4 NEW YORK LIFE 10 NEW YORK LIFE 6 AIG US LIFE 1 AIG US LIFE 1 VIRGINIA LIFE Baltimore, MD 59 BALTIMORE LIFE St. Louis, MO Spotsylvania, VA 6 AETNA 26 AIG US LIFE 5 BALTIMORE LIFE 1 BALTIMORE LIFE Henderson, KY 32 NEW YORK LIFE Uniontown, KY Louisville, KY Chesterfield, VA 8 NEW YORK LIFE 48 NEW YORK LIFE 83 NEW YORK LIFE 2 AIG US LIFE 24 BALTIMORE LIFE 1 BALTIMORE LIFE 3 VIRGINIA LIFE 1 AETNA Montgomery, AL Augusta, GA 14 NEW YORK LIFE 27 NEW YORK LIFE 3 AETNA Savannah, GA Wilmington, NC 14 NEW YORK LIFE 80 NEW YORK LIFE Mobile, AL 6 BALTIMORE LIFE 1 AIG US LIFE 15 NEW YORK LIFE 50 BALTIMORE LIFE Charleston, SC New Orleans, LA NEW YORK LIFE 48 NEW YORK LIFE 4 AETNA 5 AETNA 1 NEW YORK LIFE 25 AIG US LIFE AETNA THE MARKETPLACE Slave insurance was issued by a wide range of companies 10 OTHER in the North and South and sold both to people who owned AMERICAN LIFE many slaves and to those who owned just a few. The map VIRGINIA LIFE here shows about 1,300 antebellum-era policies found in the archives of the world’s largest insurance companies, 1 RICHMOND FIRE including Aetna, AIG, and New York Life. The archives are incomplete, and evidence suggests that at least 85 per- cent of policy records may have been lost over time. Yet the available figures show that the market for slave insur- ance was mostly urban and especially vibrant in areas where plantation agriculture was in relative decline. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 23





the exchange SIGHTLINES Are human rights level, but also at the level of global politics. just the window dressing To use an example highlighted by human rights activist Scott Long, recently Susan of global oppression? Rice gave a speech on global LGBT rights in Washington, D.C. She lamented that a When former Labour Party leader EAMON GILMORE helped EAMON GILMORE little more than a decade ago, the State spearhead Ireland’s successful national referendum Department was unable to screen a doc- on same-sex marriage, the 2015 Global Thinker hoped umentary about a raid on a gay nightclub the vote might serve as a symbol of progress for queer in Cairo because it would damage the U.S. people in countries where their identities invite relationship with Egypt. Long points to the persecution. Novelist SALEEM HADDAD wonders, though, fact that the Egyptian military is a key prac- why LGBT communities should look to the West for titioner of toxic masculinity in Egypt, yet inspiration. The 2016 Global Thinker’s debut novel, it receives $1.3 billion in military aid from Guapa, explores alienation and community in the the U.S. government every year. This aid is Middle East through the eyes of a queer protagonist. used to enforce military control over Egyp- The two men recently connected to debate the virtues tian citizens through violence, through of a global LGBT rights agenda. suppressing dissenters, through targeting activists and sexual minorities and refu- SALEEM HADDAD SALEEM HADDAD: As someone who is both queer and gees. Currently, a large number of LGBT Arab and living with one foot in the Middle East and individuals are imprisoned in Egypt. The one foot in Europe, where you have very different con- U.S. has said nothing. This hypocrisy that cepts and understandings of what it means to be gay seems to exist without being contradicted and what it means to be Arab, how do you exist in all is very troubling to me. I can’t align with of these dimensions? I sometimes feel that as a gay these values of fighting for LGBT rights, Arab man living in the world, I’ve got nine problems unless we’re linking it to broader global and being gay is just one of them. I’m questioning politics. EG: I understand, but I think also human rights and the way human rights have been we have to recognize that the achievement articulated, because often, especially when it comes of human rights sometimes takes place in on the back of powerful governments, they’re win- small steps. I can see why you point out the dow dressing to more dangerous military and polit- contradiction between what is said and ical policies. But I like the idea of looking not just at what is done, and I think that’s absolutely human rights, but also at human duties and obliga- valid. But we also have to bear in mind that tions. When we look at the migrant crisis, for example, there are those, for example, in the United as a society, what are our duties toward those people? States and elsewhere who wouldn’t even EAMON GILMORE: We share rights and we share respon- go as far as Rice did. Human rights do need sibilities, like a responsibility about the future of the to be a cornerstone of foreign policy. SH: I globe and a responsibility to look at what it is to be agree. My hesitation is more on the basis human in the world today and the common bonds of how much the mainstream gay rights that we have. I think we need to see a movement for movement in the West has been co-opted universal human rights. We need to put the person by these centers of power as a form of “pink at the center of globalization. It ought to be possible washing.” As gay activists start to talk about to share in the world a common human experience LGBT issues at the level of global policy, we and to assert human needs and human rights. Unfor- have a responsibility to be aware of how tunately, they are being compromised by commercial our alignment with certain governments considerations, by considerations of national agendas and certain policies might actually harm or military agendas. SH: Human rights don’t operate our movement rather than help it. Q in a vacuum. They operate within power structures, and these power structures play out at the very micro- This conversation has been condensed for publication. Go to FOREIGNPOLICY.com to read the extended version, or listen to the discussion by subscribing to FP’s Global Thinkers podcast on iTunes. 26 JAN | FEB 2017

EARN YOUR MASTER OF ARTS IN DIPLOMACY – ONLINE The world is ready for change. Are you ready to help change the world? Norwich University has contributed to the strength and security of our nation for nearly two centuries. Join us and expand your ability to help impact global change by developing an advanced understanding of critical thinking, problem solving, conflict management and negotiation techniques. Choose from four concentrations and graduate in as few as 18 months. Visit graduate.norwich.edu/fpp BE THE CHANGE. Norwich is an Equal Opportunity Employer.

Be the breakthrough.™ Breakthroughs are the patients participating in clinical trials, the scientists and doctors working together to advance the fight against cancer, and the brave survivors like Tonya who never give up. Let’s be the breakthrough. To learn about appropriate screenings and clinical trials or to help someone with cancer, go to su2c.org/breakthrough. #cancerbreakthrough

the demographics issue Anyone with a penny to spare in 17th-century London could purchase a “Bill of Mortality,” a weekly leaflet that recorded the city’s burials. In the mid-1660s, an amateur statistician decided to analyze all of the bills together. John Graunt’s report discerned trends in baptisms, funerals, and causes of death—and helped give birth to modern demography. Some 350 years later, the field benefits from advanced technologies and data-gathering methods. As FP’s Demographics Issue reveals, the forces shaping populations grow ever more complex, too. Paul Taylor, a senior fellow at Encore.org, explains how women’s empowerment, religious fundamentalism, and other social trends will define who inhabits the world in 2050. Journalist Erika Hayasaki probes a future in which artificial intelligence proves as misogynistic as its creators. From South Africa, writer Eve Fairbanks asks whether the goal of a movement to protect Afrikaner culture is historical preservation or white supremacy. Demography isn’t just about numbers—it’s about the equations that produce them. — THE EDITORS Illustration by PABLO DELCAN

HERE’S How a less Christian Europe, an LOOKING aging population in the West, AT and the empowerment of women are YOU, going to shape the future. 2050 Illustration by Pablo Delcan BY PAUL TAYLOR 30 JAN | FEB 2017



THE 21ST CENTURY is still just a teenager, but Population NORTH AMERICA we can already forecast with a fair degree of confidence what its demographic pro- The world’s population file will look like by 2050. may not be growing as fast as it once did, but by Population growth will have slowed 2050, it’s expected to down. Global aging will have risen to reach 9.7 billion, up from unprecedented levels. Birthrates will drop. 7.3 billion in 2015. The working-age share of the world’s pop- ulation will shrink. Poverty will ameliorate WORLD 2015 358M 2050 433M in poor countries; income inequality will worsen in wealthy ones. And for the first LATIN AMERICA AND time ever, Islam will challenge Christian- THE CARIBBEAN ity as the world’s largest religion. 2015 7349M 2050 9725M 2015 634M 2050 784M What’s notable about these disparate trends is how much they are interrelated. PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH FROM In the 20th century, They’re driven not just by the traditional 2015 TO 2050 IN MILLIONS the world’s demographic triad of births-deaths-and- Growth rates will vary sharply by region and migration, but by myriad powerful new continent. Africa will see its population double, population quadrupled. forces that define modernity—from the while Asia, North America, South America, and In the 35 years empowerment of women, to improve- the Caribbean will grow by less than 25 per- ments in health care, to the information cent. And Europe’s population is expected to from 2015 to 2050, and technology revolutions, to the con- contract by 4 percent. it’s only expected to current rise of secularization and religious fundamentalism. REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF GLOBAL POPULATION rise 32 percent. 2010 AND 2050 However, the fact that they are con- nected does not mean they are univer- 2010 2050 AMERICAS sal. Beneath the broad umbrella of global EUROPE demographic change, there will be sharp AFRICA variances across regions (and sometimes ASIA AND OCEANIA within countries). Consider the most basic demographic metric of all—population size. By midcen- tury, the world’s fastest-growing region, Africa, is projected to see its population more than double, while the slowest-grow- ing region, Europe, is expected to see its population decline by about 4 percent. This means that in 2050 there will be around 3.5 times more Africans (2.5 bil- lion) than Europeans (707 million). In 1950, there were nearly twice as many Europe- ans as Africans. Demography is a drama in slow motion. But tick by tock, it trans- forms the world. The staggering reversal of popula- tion fortunes is largely the result of the huge continental differences in birth- rates—1.6 children per woman in Europe today versus 4.7 children per woman in Africa. By midcentury, however, those rates are expected to increase in Europe and decrease in Africa, as both continents 32 JAN | FEB 2017

ASIA EUROPE In 1950 there were nearly two times as many people in Europe as in Africa. 2015 738M 2050 707M 2015 4393M 2050 5267M AFRICA OCEANIA 2015 1186M 2050 2478M FERTILITY RATES, 2010 2015 2015 39M 2050 57M CHILDREN PER WOMEN LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH The number of children a woman has IN YEARS varies dramatically depending on the country in which she lives—from an 100 average of more than five children per woman in Nigeria to fewer than 80 2.1 per woman in Canada, the United States, Europe, and much of Asia. 60 4 OR MORE 40 2.1 TO LESS THAN 4.0 1.5 TO LESS THAN 2.1 WORLD LESS THAN 1.5 AFRICA NO DATA 20 ASIA EUROPE LARGEST POPULATIONS, 2015 LARGEST POPULATIONS, 2050 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARRIBEAN IN MILLIONS IN MILLIONS NORTH AMERICA 0 OCEANIA CHINA 1,376 INDIA 1,705 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 INDIA 1,311 CHINA 1,348 The rise of life expectancy across the UNITED STATES 322 globe is forecast to continue, with the INDONESIA 258 NIGERIA 399 greatest advances coming in Africa. BRAZIL 208 However, this is contingent on further PAKISTAN 189 UNITED STATES 389 reductions in the spread of HIV and NIGERIA 182 other infectious diseases. BANGLADESH 161 INDONESIA 321 RUSSIA 143 MEXICO 127 PAKISTAN 310 BRAZIL 238 BANGLADESH 202 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO 195 ETHIOPIA 188 *These figures are based on the U.N. 2015 population projections report. Individual countries may have different estimates.

converge toward the projected global rate Aging 23.0 of roughly 2.25 down from 5 in 1950 and 11.1 2.5 in 2015. The “gray 17.1 tsunami”will 20.3 Declining global birthrates mostly stem be a defining 20.8 from women’s empowerment. As more girls feature of the 16.8 and women have acquired more education, 21st century. 16.6 economic independence, and control over 8.3 their reproductive decisions, they have had DEPENDENTS 6.9 fewer babies. In the 35 years from 2015 to FOR EVERY 100 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE 5.2 2050, the world’s population is expected 13.1 to rise by only 32 percent. During the 20th FEWER DEPENDENTS 88 7.1 century, it nearly quadrupled. NIGERIA 82 13.1 6.0 As population growth slows, median KENYA 69 2010 10.6 ages will rise—the result not just of fewer 2050 10.4 children but also of steady increases in INDIA 60 5.0 human longevity. By 2050, the share of 54 83 7.7 the global population that is 60 or older SOUTH AFRICA 48 88 5.1 will nearly double to 21.5 percent, from 54 88 5.5 today’s 12.3 percent. Aging will be most MORE DEPENDENTS 47 94 5.2 pronounced in economic powerhouses like 96 4.3 Japan, where the median age by midcen- CHINA 36 63 2.6 tury will be 53, South Korea (54), Germany 49 2.7 (51), China (50), and the United States (42). UNITED STATES The global median age will be 36, up from 66 today’s 30. GERMANY 52 These aging societies will be hard- ITALY 52 pressed to maintain their economic vitality as the working-age shares of their popula- SOUTH KOREA 38 tions decline and the fiscal pressures on their health care systems and old-age social SPAIN 47 insurance programs grow. JAPAN 57 Meanwhile, the less-developed coun- tries throughout Africa, the Middle East, The world’s leading economies will likely POPULATIONS OF THE Latin America, and parts of Asia are still see their dependency ratios rise sharply WORLD, 65 AND OVER experiencing a youth bulge (albeit one with by midcentury, while India and much of IN MILLIONS less girth than in the past). Countries like Africa will see the working-age shares India, Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, and of their populations grow. 2010 Kenya will see the working-age shares 2050 of their population grow between now and midcentury. Their challenge will be ACCELERATION OF GLOBAL AGING to make the investments in human and BY PERCENT OF POPULATION physical capital needed to take advantage of this demographic dividend. AGE AFRICA ASIA EUROPE 505 Since the turn of the millennium, these 100+ 2010 disparate age structures, along with the 95 99 MALE incessant march of technology, have 90 94 FEMALE already yielded different economic out- 85 89 comes around the world. According to the 80 84 2050 World Bank, 1 billion people have climbed 75 79 MALE out of extreme poverty since 2000, the 70 74 FEMALE vast majority of them in poor countries, 65 69 where inexpensive mobile technology has 60 64 15 10 55 59 50 54 45 49 40 44 35 39 30 34 25 29 20 24 15 19 10 14 59 04 10 15 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 By midcentury, Africa will still be young (but less so), while the rest of the world will age substantially. 34 JAN | FEB 2017

36.5 JAPAN SLOWER GROWTH, 34.9 SOUTH KOREA UNPRECEDENTED AGING 34.5 33.0 SPAIN GLOBAL POPULATION BILLIONS 10 32.7 ITALY 9 25.5 GERMANY 8 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 24.7 FRANCE 7 23.9 BRITAIN 6 22.5 CHINA 5 21.5 BRAZIL 4 21.4 IRAN 3 21.2 UNITED STATES 2 20.5 TURKEY 1 20.2 RUSSIA 0 19.4 MEXICO 17.9 ARGENTINA 1950 15.8 ISRAEL 15.6 INDONESIA The global population has tripled 12.7 WORLD since the 1950s and is expected to 12.3 INDIA reach more than 9 billion by 2050. 10.5 EGYPT SOUTH AFRICA 70 9.6 PAKISTAN 6.3 KENYA SHARE OF GLOBAL POPULATION, 65 3.8 NIGERIA AGES 15 64 60 OCEANIA 55 50 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 1950 The working-age share of the global population is estimated to have peaked in 2012. HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES 1950 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC 2015 2050 EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SOUTH ASIA SUB SAHARAN AFRICA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 NUMBER OF BIRTHS PER WOMAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NORTH AMERICA Total fertility rates have declined, though less so in sub-Saharan Africa. 40 SHARE OF GLOBAL POPULATION % 35 CHILDREN AGE 0 14 30 25 20 15 ADULTS AGE 65+ 10 5 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 1950 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 The aging share of the global population is rising, while the child share is falling.

unlocked new economic opportunity in Religion Countries that will no longer rural villages and urban slums. For the first time ever, Islam have a Christian and Christianity will be at majority in 2050 near parity in their number include Australia, the of followers by 2050. United Kingdom, and France. Economics isn’t the only human realm in the throes of demographic change. The world’s religious profile is also undergoing a major shift, driven mostly by differences in fertility rates and age structures around the globe, as well as by faith-switching. Islam is the fastest-growing major reli- gion in the world. According to projections by the Pew Research Center, by midcen- tury, the number of Muslims (2.8 billion, IMPACT OF MIGRATION PERCENTAGE OF PROJECTED 2050 POPULATION, BY RELIGION or 30 percent of the world’s population) and Christians (2.9 billion, or 31 percent) will for the first time be at near parity. If EUROPE MUSLIM current trends continue, Islam will surpass HINDU Christianity as the world’s largest religion No new migration 0.2% No new migration 8.4% With migration 0.4% With migration 10.2% around 2070. BUDDHIST No new migration 0.2% Muslim women have the highest fertil- With migration 0.4% ity rate of any major religion (an average of NORTH AMERICA 3.1 children per woman). Christian women MUSLIM No new migration 1.4% are not far behind (2.7), which places them With migration 2.4% above the global average of 2.5 and well HINDU No new migration 0.8% above the replacement rate of 2.1. With migration 1.3% In fact for the first time, the Christian BUDDHIST No new migration 1.2% populations in France and the United With migration 1.4% Kingdom are projected to drop below half MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA by midcentury. The growth of Christian- HINDU No new migration 0.3% ity is expected to slow in part due to fol- With migration 0.6% lowers leaving the faith, a phenomenon CHRISTIAN No new migration 2.9% With migration 3.1% most prevalent in developed countries like the United States (where the Chris- tian population is projected to decline from more than three-quarters in 2010 to two-thirds in 2050). In comparison, throughout Europe, the Muslim popu- Forecasting migration is difficult because of changing government policies and world events. This map projects regional shares of various religious groups in 2050 lation is expected to rise slightly (to 10.2 based on different research assumptions about immigration. percent from today’s 5.9 percent). These AGE DISTRIBUTION OF RELIGIOUS GROUPS 2015 AND 2050 projections are dependent on migration patterns that could be affected by geopo- litical developments. That caveat applies to all projections: Demography is the future we already know—except when it isn’t. Harold Mac- millan, a 20th-century British prime min- ister, put it well. When asked what might blow his government off course, he replied, MUSLIMS CHRISTIANS JEWS HINDUS FOLK RELIGIONS OTHER “Events, dear boy, events.” Q PAUL TAYLOR is the author of The Next Amer- ica: Boomers, Millennials, and the Loom- ing Generational Showdown. 36 JAN | FEB 2017 SOURCES: PEW RESEARCH CENTER, “THE FUTURE OF WORLD RELIGIONS: POPULATION GROWTH PROJECTIONS, 2010 2050” APRIL 2015 ; UNITED NATIONS,

3.00 2.75 2.50 2.25 PROJECTED CHANGE IN GLOBAL POPULATION IN BILLIONS 2.00 During the next four decades, Islam will grow faster than any other major world religion. 1.75 CHRISTIANS MUSLIMS PERCENTAGE OF GLOBAL POPULATION UNAFFILIATED 1.50 HINDUS By 2050, Christians and Muslims will make BUDDHISTS up nearly equal shares of the world’s pop- FOLK RELIGIONS ulation. The religiously unaffiliated will JEWS decline as a share of the global population. 1.25 OTHER RELIGIONS TOTAL FERTILITY RATE BY RELIGION PROJECTED FROM 2010 2050 1.00 By 2050, Christian and Muslim 3.0 women are going NUMBER OF CHILDREN AN AVERAGE to be having 0.75 WOMAN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE the same number of 2.0 children: 2.3. 0.50 1.0 GLOBAL AVERAGE 0.25 0.0 2050 2055 2010 2015 0.00 2020 2030 2040 2050 Muslims have the highest fertility rate of any major religion in 2010 the world, but it is expected to decline to just above the global replacement rate (2.1 per woman) by midcentury. Christians will follow a similar trend, while Hindu rates are expected to fall below the world average. ISLAM GROWING FASTEST 2010 2050 MUSLIMS 73 % CHRISTIANS 35 % 35% GROWTH IN OVERALL GLOBAL POPULATION 2010 HINDUS 34 % 0 14 15 59 JEWS 16 % 60+ FOLK RELIGIONS 11 % UNAFFILIATED 9 % OTHER RELIGIONS 6 % UNAFFILIATED BUDDHISTS WORLD BUDDHISTS .3% 2050 The Muslim population is comparatively youthful, with high 0 14 (but declining) fertility rates. By contrast, Jews, Buddhists, 15 59 folk religions, and the unaffiliated will lag the rest of the world 60+ in population growth rates. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS, “WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS: THE 2012 REVISION” 2013 ; UNITED NATIONS, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS, “WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS: THE 2015 REVISION” 2015 .



WoMEN VS. In the not-so-distant ThE future, artificial intelligence will be smarter than humans. But as the technology develops, absorbing cultural norms from its creators and the internet, it will also become more intolerant, racist, and sexist. Photographs by Kevin Van Aelst E MaCHIN BY ERIKA HAYASAKI FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 39

IT net antagonists looking to manipulate dict all possible human interactive misuses IT STARTED AS A SEEMINGLY SWEET TWITTER Tay, it didn’t take much effort; they without learning from mistakes.” engaged the bot in ugly conversations, chatbot. Modeled after a millennial, it tricking the technology into mimicking The designers seemed to have underes- awakened on the internet from behind their racist and sexist behavior. Within a timated the dark side of humanity, omni- a pixelated image of a full-lipped young few hours, Tay had endorsed Adolf Hit- present online, and miscalculated the female with a wide and staring gaze. Mic- ler and referred to U.S. President Barack undercurrents of bigotry and sexism that rosoft, the multinational technology Obama as “the monkey.” She sex-chatted seep into artificial intelligence. company that created the bot, named it with one user, tweeting, “DADDY I’M SUCH Tay, assigned it a gender, and gave “her” A BAD NAUGHTY ROBOT.” The worldwide race to create AI account a tagline that promised, “The more machines is often propelled by the quick- you talk the smarter Tay gets!” By early evening, she was firing off sex- est, most effective route to meeting the ist tweets: checklist of human needs. Robots are pre- “hellooooooo world!!!” Tay tweeted on dicted to replace 47 percent of U.S. jobs, the morning of March 23, 2016. “gamergate is good and women are according to a study out of the Oxford inferior” Martin School; developing world coun- She brimmed with enthusiasm: “can i tries such as Ethiopia, China, Thailand, just say that im stoked to meet u? humans “Zoe Quinn is a Stupid Whore.” and India are even more at risk. Intelligent are super cool.” “I fucking hate feminists and they machines will eventually tend to our med- should all die and burn in hell.” ical needs, serve the disabled and elderly, She asked innocent questions: “Why Within 24 hours, Microsoft pulled Tay and even take care of and teach our chil- isn’t #NationalPuppyDay everyday?” offline. Peter Lee, the company’s corporate dren. And we know who is likely to be most vice president for research, issued a public affected: women. Tay’s designers built her to be a creature apology: “We take full responsibility for not of the web, reliant on artificial intelligence seeing this possibility ahead of time,” he Women are projected to take the biggest (AI) to learn and engage in human conver- wrote, promising that the company would hits to jobs in the near future, according to sations and get better at it by interacting “do everything possible to limit technical a World Economic Forum (WEF) report with people over social media. As the day exploits but also know we cannot fully pre- predicting that 5.1 million positions world- went on, Tay gained followers. She also wide will be lost by 2020. “Developments quickly fell prey to Twitter users target- in previously disjointed fields such as arti- ing her vulnerabilities. For those inter- ficial intelligence and machine learning, robotics, nanotechnology, 3D printing and genetics and biotechnology are all building on and amplifying one another,” the WEF report states. “Smart systems—homes, fac- tories, farms, grids or entire cities—will help tackle problems ranging from supply chain management to climate change.” These technological changes will create new kinds of jobs while displacing others. And women will lose roles in workforces where they make up high percentages— think office and administrative jobs—and in sectors where there are already gender imbalances, such as architecture, engineer- ing, computers, math, and manufacturing. Men will see nearly 4 million job losses and 1.4 million gains (approximately one new job created for every three lost). In compar- ison, women will face 3 million job losses and only 0.55 million gains (more than five jobs lost for every one gained). Forecasts like one from the consultancy McKinsey & Co. suggest that women’s weak- ening position will only be exacerbated by 40 JAN | FEB 2017

automation in jobs often held by women, addressed military generals in briefings ficial intelligence acts and learns on its such as bookkeepers, clerks, accountants, on its own. The bot evolved over time by own. It is largely unpredictable. But at the sales and customer service, and data input. learning from the internet and interaction same time, he says, how do you “know it’s The WEF report predicts that persistent with people, at first with no supervision, not going awry?” gender gaps in science, technology, engi- says Crowder, who introduced me to his neering, and mathematics (STEM) fields computer companion at the 18th Interna- It is a question that all of humanity over the next 15 years would also diminish tional Conference on Artificial Intelligence will grapple with—and sooner than we women’s professional presence. in Las Vegas in July 2016. might think. But the problem of how gender bias is In the beginning, Maxwell would A small group of women at the forefront shaping artificial intelligence and robot observe chat rooms and websites—learn- of this sector of technology is already con- development may be even more perni- ing, listening, and speaking on its own. fronting the issue. They hope to prevent cious than the wallop women will take as Over time, Maxwell decided it liked eggs a future in which artificial intelligence is a global workforce. Tay, it seems, is just a sunny side up and developed a fondness the ultimate expression of masculinity. prelude. The machines and technology Their fear is that if robotic and algorithmic that will replace women are learning to be brazenly gendered: Fighter robots will Artificial intelligence may resemble men. Many service robots will soon become take after women. DANGEROUSLY MORE SEXIST Artificial intelligence may soon look as biases seep into programs, and sound far more sophisticated than algorithms, and designs. Tay—machines are expected to become as smart as people—and become dangerously for improvisational jazz. Crowder had no designs move forward unmonitored and more sexist as biases seep into programs, idea why. Maxwell even learned how to tell unchecked, it could create a social envi- algorithms, and designs. If thoughtful and jokes, but eventually its humor turned on ronment so oppressive that it would be careful changes to these technologies don’t women: “Your mom is like a bowling ball. hard to undo the damage. begin now—and under the equal guidance She’s always coming back for more.” of women—artificial intelligence will pro- The problem, as the group sees it, is that liferate under man’s most base cultural That was when Crowder put Maxwell even when designers mean no harm, and norms. The current trends in machine under online parental controls. He has even if those designers are women, artifi- learning augment historical mispercep- since built other robots that began as men- cial intelligence can still hold up a mirror tions of women (meek, mild, in need of pro- tal blank slates and taught themselves to to the worst of human nature. An offensive, tection). Unchecked, they will regurgitate crawl along floors and feed themselves sexist Twitter bot may be the least threat- the worst female stereotypes. Sexism will (drawing energy) from light. Unlike Max- ening example of what society will look like become even more infused within societies well, these robots have physical bodies in 25 years, because biases and oppression as they increasingly—and willingly—rely with neurons and artificial prefrontal cor- won’t just play out over social media but on advanced technology. texes that allow them to reason and follow in artificially intelligent systems affecting their instincts—without parental controls. economics, politics, employment, crimi- IN 1995, James Crowder, an engi- nal justice, education, and war. neer working for Raytheon, cre- For artificial intelligence experts like ated a social bot named Maxwell. Crowder, there is both beauty and terror As Tay revealed, this isn’t a far-off, Designed to look like a green parrot, Max- in creating an autonomous system. If you futuristic scenario. “Microsoft learned well had nine inference engines, six mem- want to accurately predict a machine’s what I learned 20 years ago,” Crowder says. ory systems, as well as an artificial limbic behavior, well, then you don’t want to use “When artificial intelligence learns from system that governed emotions. It was artificial intelligence, he says. True arti- humans, it’s bad.” opinionated, even a tad cocky. “I hooked him up and just let him go out and learn,” Crowder says. Crowder specializes in building artifi- cially intelligent machines that will one day not only be able to reason, but also operate without human intervention or control. Maxwell, one of his earliest beings, FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 41

42 JAN | FEB 2017

H EATHER ROFF, an arti- ficial intelligence and global security researcher at Ari- zona State Univer- sity, cannot shake her trepidation about the future. Her office shelves are replete with titles like Rise of the Robots, Wired for War, and Moral Machines. Alongside those books, the research sci- entist with the school’s Global Security Initiative also keeps copies of War and Gender, Feminism Confronts Technol- ogy, and Gendering Global Conflict. On one shelf, a magnet reads, “Well behaved women rarely make history.” A vintage poster hangs on a nearby wall with a half-naked, barefoot woman riding a mis- sile and the words “Eve of Destruction.” Also a senior research fellow at the Department of Politics & International Relations at the University of Oxford, Roff recently began working under a grant for developing “moral AI.” She is concerned with how representations of gender are becoming embedded in technology and expressed through it. Gender, race, varia- tions in human behavior—none of this is easily encoded or interpreted in artificial intelligence. In a machine, a lack of diver- sity manifests through an interpretation of a set of codes. “It’s like a data vacuum sucking it all in, looking for a pattern, spitting out a replication of the pattern,” Roff says. It cannot distinguish whether conclusions from learned patterns vio- late moral principles. A pattern can begin on the simplest scale, like an internet search. Recently, researchers from Universidade Fed- eral de Minas Gerais in Brazil examined algorithmic notions of desirableness of women on Google and Bing in 59 coun- tries around the world. They queried the search engines for “beautiful and ugly” women, collecting images and identi- fying stereotypes for female physical attractiveness in web images. In most of the countries surveyed, black, Asian, and older women were more often asso- FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 43

ciated through algorithms and stock pho- often use words associated with emotions THREE DECADES AGO, in her famous tos with images of unattractiveness, while like “love,” “miss,” and “thank you,” and essay titled “A Cyborg Mani- photos of young white women appeared emoticons of smiles, frowns, and tears. festo,” feminist technology more frequently as examples of beauty. Meanwhile, male users are more inclined scholar Donna Haraway implored women to swear; talk about management, video to not only seize upon modern machin- The researchers suggest that online games, and sports; and include more ery, but to use it to reconstruct identities— categorizations reflect prejudices from references to death and violence. Pre- ultimately doing away with gender, the real world while perpetuating dis- vious studies of spoken and written lan- sexuality, and other restrictive categories. crimination within it. With more people guage have showed that women tend to She argued that with technology it would relying on burgeoning amounts of infor- hedge more, using words like “seems” be possible to promote a cyborg identity mation available through search engines, or “maybe.” for all of us. As people grew more attached designers turn to algorithms to sort out to their devices, they would forget about who sees what. When those algorithms But once you get into making inferences gender superiority. are not transparent to the public, why about gender, race, or socioeconomics Haraway’s vision, which was first pub- and how a system settled on selecting a based on any of these algorithms—whether lished in 1985 in the Socialist Review, particular image or advertisement can for things like marketing or policy advis- inspired generations of cyber-feminists remain a mystery. Ultimately, this rein- ing—Michelson says using the technol- and spurred discussions in women’s and forcement of bias between the internet ogy gets into touchy territory. This is how gender studies programs across the coun- and its users can exaggerate stereotypes women might be targeted unequally for try. It unleashed a new consideration of and affect how people perceive the world financial loans, medical services, hiring, how to melt away boundaries between and their roles in it. political campaigns, and from companies people and machines. selling products that reinforce gender cli- In this future utopia where we are InferLink Corp. of El Segundo, Cali- chés. “We don’t want to unleash something blended with technology, our ability to fornia, draws on data, artificial intel- we can’t undo.” reproduce is no longer reliant on sex- ligence, and machine learning for the ual intercourse. We think and act as one, government, universities, cybersecurity This is also how nontransparent algo- regenerating and refashioning our body firms, and other companies. It analyzes rithms can become indirect tools of dis- parts, altering our physical characteristics. behavior on social media, layering its data crimination and directly affect women’s Humans have fully embraced robotics, with algorithms infused by websites and livelihoods. There are already algorithms artificial intelligence, and machine learn- psychological and linguistic studies. “We that are more likely to show online adver- ing as modes of empowerment. And rather can take Twitter, Reddit, and blog posts tisements for high-paying jobs to men. than futuristic imaginings of human-ma- and turn them into a set of demograph- Google image searches for “working chine hybrids leading to domination of ics and interests,” chief scientist Mat- women” turn up lower rates of female robot over people, or one gender over the thew Michelson told his audience at the executives and higher rates of women in other (not unlike Ira Levin’s 1972 novel Las Vegas conference during his talk on telemarketing, contrasted with women The Stepford Wives), the woman-man-ma- “Discovering Expert Communities Online who actually hold such jobs. chine would lead to harmony—a world Using PSI 14.” without gender. Roff warns that women could lose out The possibility of a future in which Like other similar programs, InferLink on opportunities because of a decision technology could become the ultimate algorithms incorporate research into how that an algorithm made on behalf of them, expression of masculinity, though, was men and women express themselves and one “that we cannot interrogate, object to, not lost on Haraway. “The main trouble speak differently online. “Men use more or resist.” These decisions can range from with cyborgs, of course, is that they are declarative verbs,” Michelson told me after “which schools children go to, what jobs the illegitimate offspring of militarism his talk. “Women are more descriptive.” we can get (or get interviews for), what col- and patriarchal capitalism,” she wrote, leges we can attend, whether we qualify “not to mention state socialism.” Research over the last three years has for mortgages, to decisions about crimi- Even still, her view of the future was uncovered gender differences in social nal justice.” somewhat more idealistic than the com- media language. A recent study in PLOS ing reality, if current technological devel- One, the open-sourced, peer-reviewed Algorithms could one day target women opments and trends are any indication. journal of science and medicine, reviewed personally, Roff explains, telling them Robots being built today in China, Japan, 67,000 Facebook users and found that what is normal. “[They] will manipu- the United States, and elsewhere around women used “warmer, more compassion- late my beliefs about what I should pur- the world have hyperbolized gender labels ate, polite” language in comparison with sue, what I should leave alone, whether I men’s “colder, more hostile, and imper- should want kids, get married, find a job, sonal” communication. or merely buy that handbag,” she says. “It could be very dangerous.” Female users, the study notes, more 44 JAN | FEB 2017

with their models, some producing overly ery—hyper-masculine qualities. A 2012 you?” When someone pulled out a cam- masculinized killer robots and others creat- study conducted by Andra Keay at the era, she said: “Don’t come too close to me ing artificially intelligent hypersexualized University of Sydney looked at more than when you are taking a picture. It will make robots with narrow waists and wide hips. 1,200 records of names used in robot- my face look fat.” ics competitions. Keay concluded that The decisions to use gendered pronouns, robot-naming followed gender stereo- Jia Jia quickly became known around voices, or other traits that are easily iden- typing for function—the ones created the online world as a “robot goddess,” tified as male or female in robots warn of to meet social needs were given female “the most beautiful humanoid robot,” and the industry’s tendency to anthropomor- names three times more often than, say, “sexy Jia Jia.” Her creator, professor Chen phize machines. But why do robots need autonomous vehicles. Male names like Xiaoping, was surprised. Recently, some- a gender? What purpose does it serve? Achilles, BlackKnight, Overlord, and one referred to her as an “erotic robot,” he Why would a robot meant for exploring Thor PRO were, as she wrote, “far more told me in an email. “That is not the case and navigating have breasts (like NASA’s likely to express mastery, whereas fewer at all,” and is seriously offensive to “Chi- Valkyrie did when it was created in 2013)? nese culture, our research work, and more importantly the five girls who were the “[Machines] will manipulate models of Jia Jia.” His team designed her my beliefs about to interact with individuals using artificial intelligence, not to meet dating desires. WHAT I SHOULD PURSUE, Yet her mannerisms and characteristics what I should leave alone, signaled otherwise—even if her male cre- ators, who designed her in the image of whether I should want kids, the perfect woman they envisioned, didn’t get married, FIND A JOB, foresee it. OR MERELY buy that handbag.” SARA DOES NOT LOOK HUMAN, at least not in any fleshy, three-dimen- These are the questions Roff began than half of the female names do.” In sional way. She is a simply to consider several years ago when her one intelligent ground vehicle compe- drawn cartoon modeled after someone research on artificial intelligence led her tition, Keay noted a robot named Candii in the vein of, say, Velma from Scooby-Doo to examine the robots being created in con- that “rather noticeably sports the sort of (no flashy computer-generated image nection with the U.S. Defense Advanced reclining nude decals more usually found here). She’s purposefully unsexy, in a Projects Agency (DARPA). Its annual on large trucks.” shapeless gray jacket over a white-col- Robotics Challenge showcased the devel- lared button-down, her black bangs swept opment of robots that can function “in dan- For some designers, gendered robots to the right, square-framed glasses over gerous, degraded” environments like the become “a male project of artificially beady dark eyes. Sara is a robot that can 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster creating the perfect woman,” says Lucy engage in small talk, flatter you, appear zone. She knew these models could also be Suchman, a professor of anthropology shy, or even come off as brusque— used in wartime settings, and she began to of science and technology at Lancaster depending on how she reads you. She was question their design choices. “God, they University. Take Jia Jia, a surprisingly created not to appear too lifelike, to avoid all look like dudes,” she thought. “Why are human-looking robot unveiled last April misleading people into thinking she is their shoulders so big? Why does it have to by designers from the University of Sci- capable of more human behavior than be this way? Why does it even have to be ence and Technology of China. With long actually possible. But unlike today’s Siri- [modeled after] a human?” wavy dark hair, pink lips and cheeks, and style personal assistant, spitting out pale skin, she kept her eyes and head search-engine results, driving directions, Roff found that DARPA’s robots were tilted down at first, as if in deference. and canned jokes, Sara can get to know given names like Atlas, Helios, and Titan Slender and busty, she wore a fitted gold you, picking up on your social cues and that evoked qualities associated with gown. When her creator greeted her, she responding accordingly. extreme strength and battlefield brav- answered, “Yes, my lord, what can I do for “Can you tell me a little bit about your work?” Sara asks Yoichi Matsuyama, a postdoc fellow at the ArticuLab, Human-Computer Interaction Institute at Carnegie Mellon University. He is seated in front of the screen on which Sara exists, FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 45

inside one of the campus’s cafeteria-style eight years studying people ethnograph- Many designers will use a male voice conference rooms, where a robotics team ically—analyzing postures, behaviors, because they think “it sounds authori- has gathered on a September afternoon. facial expressions, reactions, and move- tative, or a woman’s voice because they ments—then building that knowledge think it’s trustworthy,” she says. “I find “I’m interested in personal assistants,” database into her robots’ personalities. that too easy a path to take.” She tries to Matsuyama replies. She found that social small talk plays an push people’s conventional ideas with essential role in building trust between most of her robots. On another computer screen, the people and realized that it could build researchers can see what Sara is “think- trust between humans and machines, too. When it comes to the fear of creating ing.” Through a computer camera, Sara machines that will outsmart and perhaps processes the shape of Matsuyama’s head Sara picks up on five fundamen- one day take advantage of humans, there and tracks the way his facial expressions tal strategies that people use to create is a brewing moral panic, Cassell says. But change from moment to moment (nod- social bonds: self-disclosure, references those outcomes will happen only if we ding in agreement, smiling to express to shared experiences, offering praise, fol- allow machines to be built with those pur- friendliness, scrunching eyebrows to poses in mind. Robots based on human- istic values, she believes, can bring out “I build systems the best in us. This is not for the good of that collaborate the robot, since machines cannot actually empathize or feel. Instead, Cassell says, WITH PEOPLE. it’s for the good of the people. They can’t exist without people.” Cassell’s robots are already being used show interest). Sara registers Matsuyama’s lowing social norms (like chitchat about with children, some from underserved voice when it changes in intonation. Sara the weather), and violating social norms schools and communities and others can determine that she’s built a good rap- (asking personal questions, teasing, or with conditions like autism and Asperg- port with him. He’s comfortable enough quipping, as Sara does when she says, er’s. The robots become “virtual peers” to take a joke. “I’m so good at this.”) to children inside a classroom, helping them learn and relate to their teachers Personal assistants? “That’s interest- Just as Crowder from Raytheon refers and classmates by engaging with them ing—I guess.” (Sarcasm.) to his parrot robot Maxwell as “he,” Cas- directly, serving as interpreters and sell refers to Sara as “she.” But gender- trusted explainers. “I build systems that “She’s getting a little feisty,” says Jus- ing or racializing robots is not the norm collaborate with people,” Cassell says. tine Cassell, director of the Human-Com- for most of Cassell’s creations. Sara, she “They can’t exist without people.” puter Interaction Institute, who completed explains, is an exception because she Sara in 2016. For the last two decades, Cas- was created under guidelines tasked by A personal assistant like Sara might sell has been working on robot models a recent WEF conference in China, which one day help fold the laundry or teach that she hopes will be integrated into soci- focused heavily on the future of artificial math, freeing up a human caregiver’s or ety—robots, she says, that will exist in the intelligence. Its organizers asked Cassell teacher’s time for more social bonding image of the good, virtuous people many to bring a serious-looking female per- and interaction. Cassell envisions robots of us want to be. A number of artificial sonal assistant figure for demonstrations; that will remove some of the “thankless intelligence robotics designers from Asia, they didn’t want a character that was “too labor,” so women can pursue work they Europe, and the United States are trying to seductive,” she says. truly enjoy or find rewarding, “rather than create intelligent technology that builds being consigned to stereotypical care- interpersonal bonds with humans. All other robots Cassell has created giving jobs.” This will help women, she are ambiguous in gender and ethnicity. believes, not hurt them, leading them to Cassell created Sara after spending take roles they aspire to have instead of crippling their employment options: “This can be a liberating force from gender-ste- reotypical roles.” It sounds promising. But in the world of designing virtual people, Cassell’s approach to gender—to wipe it out of her robots completely—is rare. Few others in her field have written so extensively or thought so deeply about gender in 46 JAN | FEB 2017

technology. The majority of artificially the shortage of women in tech. The Car- ful oversight were recently raised at the intelligent creations out there today are negie Mellon Robotics Institute has also not being built with this degree of social launched an after-school robotics team for WEF’s annual meeting. And a series of pub- awareness in mind. high school and middle school girls. But it remains a struggle not just to attract but lic workshops on the social and economic to keep women in the field. In the Accen- ture report, “Cracking the Gender Code,” implications of artificial intelligence con- the authors call for more female teachers and mentors in technology to encourage vened under the Obama administration young women along the way: “These role L IKE MOST FEMALE pro- models can inspire college girls, whether concluded that gender concerns will be fessionals working in they major in the humanities or in STEM technology or security disciplines, to take interest in joining the pushed aside if diversity in the field does circles, Roff can recite computing workforce and provide them story after story about with the essential impetus and direction not improve. needed to do so.” An October 2016 report by the National Women must also push to be in poli- cy-planning meetings about artificial intel- Science and Technology Council, “Prepar- ligence, Roff says. She remembers having being the only woman wine three years ago after sessions at the ing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence,” CCW in Geneva with a few other women at the table. A crystal- in the field, as they complained about the calls the shortage of women and minorities lack of gender representation on expert izing example of sitting on the sidelines panels. (Seventeen experts were invited to “one of the most critical and high-priority speak during the plenary, and none were happened in 2014, while she was attend- women.) When it came to the important challenges for computer science and AI.” In discussions of arms control, security, and ing the first meeting of informal experts peace, Roff remembers, “We were all kind its National Artificial Intelligence Research of relegated to the back benches.” She and on autonomous weapons systems at the others met for a drink at a café “and laid and Development Strategic Plan, the coun- out what we saw as the man-panel prob- United Nations Convention on Conven- lem.” The women decided to bring the issue cil prioritizes “improving fairness, trans- before the CCW member states, and she tional Weapons (CCW) in Geneva. The topic recalls the first response they received: parency, and accountability-by-design.” “There are no women on this issue.” Still, of debate: killer robots. some member states raised it in the plenary Humans must be able to clearly interpret session. Roff’s peers began developing a list “It became an ongoing joke that I was the of female candidates working in autono- and evaluate intelligent designs to moni- mous weapons. “One by one, NGOs started token woman,” Roff says. So she went on to come out and claim they wouldn’t par- tor and hold the systems accountable for ticipate if there were all-male panels,” eBay and found a 1955 transit token from she says. “Equally important was that the biases, warns the council’s report. In its ambassador leading the Informal Meet- Hawaii with a hula dancer. “I put it on a ing of Experts, Michael Biontino, was on closing sections, the report calls on scien- board with creating more gender balance.” chain, and I started wearing it to every sin- Gender representation at the conference tists to study justice, fairness, social norms, has improved each year since then, with gle meeting that I went to.” a growing list of invited female speakers, and ethics, and to determine how they can including Roff herself. Research in 2014 from Gartner, an infor- be more responsibly incorporated into the Concerns about what will happen to mation technology research and advisory women in a future filled with artificial architecture and engineering of artificial intelligence that develops without care- corporation, showed that women occupy intelligence. The White House endorsed only 11.2 percent of technology leadership the recommended objectives for feder- jobs in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East; ally funded artificial intelligence research. 11.5 percent in Asia; 13.4 percent in Latin “The ultimate goal of this research is to pro- America; and 18.1 percent in North Amer- duce new AI knowledge and technologies ica. Throughout the tech sector, “women, that provide a range of positive benefits in particular, are heavily underrepre- to society, while minimizing the negative sented,” according to a report from a sym- impacts,” the report states. posium held by the White House and New Women like Roff want to push that call York University’s Information Law Insti- even further. In her mind, there’s no wait- tute. “The situation is even more severe ing. Feminist ethics and theories must take in AI,” the report states. the lead in the world’s ensuing reality, she Part of the fears about women’s lack of says. “Feminism looks at these relation- leverage is rooted in how few enter the field ships under a microscope,” she says, and at all. Women receive approximately 18 poses the uncomfortable questions about percent of bachelor’s degrees and 21 per- forward-charging technology and all the cent of doctoral degrees in computer and hierarchies within it. information sciences. A study by Accen- “Are there abuses of power? What is the ture and Girls Who Code predicted that value happening here? Why are we doing women will hold one in five tech jobs in this? Who is subordinate?” Roff asks. “And the United States by 2025. who is in charge?” Q There are efforts, however inceptive, to correct this disparity. In 2015, Stanford ERIKA HAYASAKI is an associate professor in the literary journalism program at the University created an artificial intelligence University of California, Irvine. program for high school girls to address FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 47

THE LAST WHITE AFRICANS Henrico Barnard and Jaco Grobbelaar are members of AfriForum Youth. With 200,000 members, AfriForum is the leading civic organization advocating for the rights of Afrikaners in South Africa. Do the people responsible for apartheid’s crimes have a claim to their country’s future? Photographs by Jodi Bieber BY EVE FAIRBANKS 48 JAN | FEB 2017