Foreign Policy 2019 03 Summer

SUMMER 2019 MEET EARTH’S U N L I K E LY SAVIORS.

contents Who Will 015 Save the Planet? 016 Central Banks 030 The Young A decade after the world bailed out finance, it’s time Minors care more about fixing the world—but for finance to bail out the world. By Adam Tooze that won’t help unless we change the way our democracies work. By David Runciman 024 Space Research 034 Subtle Shifts The solutions to climate change lie far, far away. By Greg Autry Dramatic projects won’t save the world. Slow, quiet, incremental changes are the 027 The Botanist planet’s best hope. By Ted Nordhaus Plants suck up lots of harmful carbon dioxide. One Cover and top illustration by PARTY OF ONE STUDIO scientist thinks she can supercharge them to do much more. Interview by Ravi Agrawal

contents insights feature 003 Why Young Koreans 038 The Love to Splurge 2020 Candidates Aren’t Talking Sometimes blowing your paycheck can be About Foreign a rational choice. By Jeongmin Kim Policy. They Need to Start. 006 Instead of Bringing The United States Jobs to the People, Bring caused many of the the People to the Jobs world’s problems and can still unmake them— How transportation subsidies can fix but only if its leaders face seasonal poverty. By Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak up to the challenge. By Jonathan Tepperman 009 China’s reviews Overrated Technocrats 062 Who Will Win the Beijing is famous for putting engineers and scientists in charge. But that doesn’t make for Self-Driving Future? better leaders. By James Palmer China and the United States have 011 The Dangerous Politics drastically different visions for autonomous transportation. of Playing the Victim By Salvatore Babones The leaders of Israel and Serbia share one thing: 065 Ever Closer Confusion They’ve perfected the politics of persecution. Here’s why that strategy won’t keep working. A new novel portrays the European Union’s By Dahlia Scheindlin search for meaning as a historical reckoning— and a comedy of manners. By Peter Pomerantsev Illustrations by ULI KNÖRZER and IRENA GAJIC 068 Delhi Crime and Punishment Netflix’s hit show documents the changes rocking Indian society—and not all of them are good. By Ira Trivedi 070 Books in Brief Recent releases on mosquitoes, the Islamic State, and Kim Jong Un’s staying power. 072 Pandora’s Vox Thousands of years ago, the ancient Greeks anticipated robots and artificial intelligence—and they didn’t trust them. By Adrienne Mayor FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 1

contributors Dahlia Scheindlin is an international political consultant who has worked Greg Autry is the director of the in 15 countries, including five national Southern California Commercial campaigns in Israel. She is a policy Spaceflight Initiative at the University fellow at Mitvim, the Israeli Institute for of Southern California, vice president at Regional Foreign Policies. Scheindlin the National Space Society, and chair of is a columnist at +972 Magazine and a the International Space Development co-host of The Tel Aviv Review podcast. Conference. He served on the transition team and as White House liaison to Adam Tooze is a history professor at NASA under the Trump administration. Columbia University, where he directs the European Institute. He is the author Jeongmin Kim is pursuing a of four books, the latest of which is master’s degree in political science Crashed: How a Decade of Financial at Seoul National University. Her Crises Changed the World. Tooze is research focuses on North Korean currently at work on a history of global politics and comparative studies of energy and climate politics since the contemporary authoritarian regimes. 1973 oil crisis. Kim worked previously at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Ira Trivedi is the author of nine books, in Washington and at Reuters’s Seoul including India in Love: Marriage and bureau. Sexuality in the 21st Century. She is also a yoga expert. In 2017, Trivedi was David Runciman is a politics professor named one of the BBC’s 100 most at Cambridge University and a staff influential women in the world. fellow of Trinity Hall. His books include Political Hypocrisy, The Confidence Trap, and How Democracy Ends. His next book, Where Power Stops, will be published in August. Runciman is a contributing editor at the London Review of Books and hosts the weekly podcast Talking Politics. 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Why Young Koreans Love to Splurge Sometimes blowing your paycheck can be a rational choice. By Jeongmin Kim Photograph Illustration by NAMETK NAME FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 3

insights IN 2017, YOUNG PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD FIRED BACK at an Aus- tralian millionaire who chided them for “spending $40 a day on smashed avocado and coffees” and still expecting to be able to buy a home. But in South Korea, a generation of frustrated young people is reclaiming the idea of frivolous expenses—from cab rides to expensive sushi—as a psycho- logical survival tool dubbed shibal biyong. Loosely translated to “fuck-it expense,” the term is a com- pound noun combining shibal (a swearword for frustration) and biyong (expense). It first appeared in late 2016, with the earliest tweet about it referring to “an expense that I would not have spent if I weren’t under stress,” such as “an impul- sive food delivery or a cab ride.” The post caught on, and the term was named “neologism of the year” by several South Korean media outlets. A shibal biyong is an expense that might seem unneces- sary but that helps you get through a bad day. It’s the $20 you splurge for a cab home instead of taking the subway after you’ve been denied a promotion or the comforting but expen- sive sushi you buy after you’ve been berated by your boss. The term implies that you might as well make yourself happy right now because your prospects in the long term seem bleak. Buy that nice coat, because you’ll never get on the housing ladder. Eat that steak, because you’ll never save up enough to retire. SHIBAL BIYONG DIDN’T COME OUT OF NOWHERE. It shares a sensibil- DECODER The title of a recent South Korean ity with phrases like geumsujeo (gold spoon) and hell Joseon bestselling book, I Want to Die, but I (hellish Korea), which became popular several years ago INTERPRETING Want to Eat Tteokbokki (spicy rice and express the collective despair of a generation of South THE ESSENTIAL cakes), captures the essence of shibal Koreans who find life in their country intolerable because biyong. Or as BTS, the most famous it seems rigged to benefit people born into wealth (like gold WORDS Korean boy band, sings in “Go Go”: “No spoon kids) or rich enough to emigrate. THAT HELP money but I want to eat Jiro Ono [sushi] EXPLAIN THE / worked hard to get my pay / … / let me According to Statistics Korea, in 2015 seven out of 10 be even if I overspend / even if I break young people believed inequality was a major problem— WORLD apart my savings tomorrow.” and with reason: Among countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), for exam- According to one survey from 2017, ple, South Korea ranks 31 out of 36 on income inequality, the usual maximum amount people according to the latest available data. In 2018, youth unem- spent on a single shibal biyong was ployment reached its highest level since 1999, in the after- around $90. The rate of increase in math of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Part of the blame consumer spending among millen- for these problems lies with South Korea’s chaebol—giant nials—those born in the early 1980s family-owned conglomerates—which still monopolize to mid-1990s—since 2014 is twice as much of the country’s economy and stifle entrepreneur- ship, leaving young Koreans competing to enter the hier- archical and gerontocratic world of chaebol jobs for want of any alternative. Inequality and a sense of economic despair have taken a fierce toll on South Koreans’ mental health. Nearly half of all deaths among South Koreans in their 20s are due to suicide, compared with just under 1 in 5 Americans of the same age. The country’s overall suicide rate was the high- est among OECD countries from 2003 to 2016. 4 SUMMER 2019

Shoppers crowd a street of Seoul’s rate of inflation until recently, “treat Myeongdong district in June 2012. yo’ self” consumption has taken hold future. A 2018 survey by the National Youth Policy Institute showed that 46 among American youth spending on percent of young people in South Korea believed that buying a house would indulgences such as Uber rides—around either “take more than 20 years” or “never be attainable.” The Seoul met- half of adults under 30 in the United ropolitan area, where nearly half the country lives, now has housing prices States regularly use ride-hailing ser- that equal New York City’s—without the salaries to match. Many millennials have vices—or food delivery from Grubhub. begun avoiding traditional investment options, such as stocks and bonds, either Policymakers need to take the con- because they can’t save enough money or because they think the gains can’t cerns of millennials seriously instead possibly keep up with rising expenses. of dismissing an entire generation as “Shibal biyong and tangjinjaem [squandering fun] are symbolic endeav- self-indulgent. In 2018, the Bank of ors responding to social problems via individual consumption,” said Alex Korea reported that people in their 20s Taek-Gwang Lee, a professor at Kyung Hee University in Seoul. “As saving can- scored the lowest on “financial behav- not guarantee the future, unlike in the past, the idea of investing in the present ior and attitude”—at least in the bank’s rather than the future gains strength.” definition of sensible saving—among Social media is another driving force in the shibal biyong phenom- the working population, despite hav- enon. South Korea has the highest smartphone ownership and internet ing the highest level of financial knowl- penetration in the world. Most mil- lennials use platforms like Instagram, edge of all age groups. To respond, the Facebook, and KakaoTalk, where con- spicuous consumption is celebrated bank suggested, the government should and “fuck-it expenses” have gained social approval. When influencers adopt policies that “nurture proper val- manage their stress by, for example, posting beautiful pictures of an impul- ues, as the youths today put too much sive excursion to Bali with the hashtag #shibalbiyong, it normalizes a culture emphasis on consumption.” of instant gratification. But such arguments miss the point. SHIBAL BIYONG HAS BEGUN TO RESONATE Cathartic consumption is based on with millennials outside South Korea. Young Americans have also started young Koreans’ sincere—and perhaps splurging on short-term pleasures despite—or perhaps because of—the accurate—belief that new policies alone fact that so many of them graduated from college in the years following the won’t rectify systemic economic prob- 2008 financial crisis. And despite years of wage increases lagging behind the lems. Koreans have begun blowing their money not out of ignorance but out of common sense. A small pleasure now is better than a promised future content- ment that will never come. Korean millennials might not be spending like their parents, but they are actually doing a reasonable job high as that of baby boomers, accord- budgeting their shibal biyong, trying ing to credit and debit card usage data obtained by South Korean media last to balance today’s happiness against a year. At this pace, by 2020 the aver- age millennial may outspend the aver- potentially grim financial future. Mil- age baby boomer (a generation that in Korea is a decade younger than its U.S. lennials know they can’t afford their counterpart, dating to the boom at the end of the Korean War), despite having small pleasures. But they can’t afford far less wealth. LOOP IMAGES/UNIVERSAL IMAGES GROUP VIA GETTY IMAGES anything else either, even if they give If South Korean millennials are squan- dering their money, it’s not because up the splurges that get them through they’ve lost touch with reality. Quite the opposite: For many of them, short- the day. Only when measures are taken term consumption has become a rational choice maximizing the utility of money to make them believe that affluence based on a realistic assessment of the is attainable will saving for the future make sense. Q JEONGMIN KIM (@jeongminnkim) is a Korea analyst and a political science scholar at Seoul National University researching North Korean politics and comparative authoritarianism. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 5

insights People from northern Bangladesh migrate to Dhaka for work in March 2008. Instead of Bringing Jobs to the People, Bring the People to the Jobs How transportation subsidies can fix seasonal poverty. By Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak ECONOMISTS AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS GENERALLY THINK of THE FIX the only solution is to migrate tem- poverty as a chronic, binary phenomenon: People are either porarily in search of work in cities; in poor or they are not. But reality is not so simple. Worldwide, PROVEN others, the rural poor need cash to buy 300 million people live nominally above the poverty line but SOLUTIONS food while breadwinners are away or regularly go hungry for some portion of the year. This sea- seasonal loans to increase the produc- sonal deprivation is related to the agricultural crop cycle. The TO THE tivity of their land. period between planting and harvest is a so-called lean sea- WORLD’S son during which prices of staples rise and job opportunities BIGGEST Researchers have found that during become scarce for landless agricultural workers. PROBLEMS Kenya’s hunger season, grain prices in the country’s major markets regularly This period is predictable in timing and geography. Col- rise by 25-40 percent and often more loquially known as the “hunger season” in many parts of than 50 percent in more isolated areas. Africa, it is called njala in Malawi, musim paceklik in Indo- Seasonal hunger isn’t a problem only in nesia, and monga in Bangladesh. And its impact is extremely Africa. In 2016, my colleagues and I col- widespread, given that 80 percent of the world’s poor still lected large-sample data in rural north- depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. In some places, ern Bangladesh and learned that up to 6 SUMMER 2019

60 percent of households regularly miss jobs in nearby urban areas remain avail- changes in the rural economy. The sec- meals or restrict portion sizes during the able. Some seasonally impoverished ond set of results in 2014-2015 looked lean period. Such drops have damaging rural residents in Bangladesh already even stronger, as it became easier for consequences for children’s physical move to cities to work at construction people to travel together when many and cognitive development. Children sites or to pull rickshaws. A program we friends and neighbors received trans- who are regularly undernourished for introduced in northern Bangladesh in port subsidies simultaneously. How- parts of the year are more likely to be 2007 offered round-trip transport sub- ever, new complexities arose as the stunted and unproductive later in life. sidies to poor households to enable one program grew. The organization offer- member to temporarily move to nearby ing the subsidies targeted the wrong Seasonal food insecurity is among cities like Dhaka, Bogra, or Munshiganj set of people—those who didn’t need the biggest challenges to global pov- in search of work. We then measured external support and who would have erty reduction—but it has remained the effects of this program through a likely migrated on their own. In the largely under the radar. Understand- series of randomized controlled trials. future, governments and NGOs will ing the phenomenon requires tracking have to innovate to ensure the subsi- the same people across seasons within The original trial found that the pro- dies are targeted appropriately. the year, which is difficult and expen- gram increased the number of peo- sive. Yet with climate change, seasonal ple migrating and that this increase Migration subsidies are working in deprivation could get worse, as lean raised the amount of calories con- Bangladesh because the poorest house- seasons grow longer, more frequent, sumed by the families of such migrants holds seem otherwise unable to take and more severe. Policymakers seek- by 550-700 calories per person per day. advantage of profitable but risky oppor- ing to reduce and eliminate poverty During subsequent lean seasons, many tunities to move for jobs. The risk of therefore need to find ways to address of the initial migrants chose to move failing to find a job in the city after seasonal deprivation. again—at their own expense—espe- using one’s meager savings to finance cially if they’d formed a connection the trip can be overwhelming, espe- A number of governments have to an employer in the city. cially when a family is living close to already tried to do so, by introducing subsistence levels. food-for-work programs. In Africa, Between 2011 and 2017, while incre- 39 countries currently have govern- mentally scaling up the subsidy pro- The research therefore offers guid- ment-supported public works programs; gram, we continued to collect data to ance on the types of places where sea- India’s National Rural Employment study the unintended consequences of sonal migration subsidies are most likely Guarantee Act is another well-known migration on family relationships and to succeed. It makes the most sense to example. However, creating nonagricul- happiness—and to look for broader target areas where people affected by tural jobs in an economy that is tempo- SHADING DENOTES THE HISTORICAL LEAN SEASONS U.N. FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION, 2008 . rarily stalled as farmers wait for crops Hunger in Northern Bangladesh to grow can be complicated and expen- sive. Indeed, a rigorous evaluation of The frequency with which households restrict portion size or number of meals the national public works program in in a given month (August 2015 to July 2016). Malawi found disappointing results: Even when the food-for-work initiative 70% LEAN LEAN SIX DAYS was targeted to the poor during the lean 60% SEASON SEASON OR MORE season, there was no improvement in 50% food security. Nongovernmental orga- MORE THAN HALF nizations can extend microcredit, but OF THE MONTH many such credit contracts impose biweekly repayment requirements— 25 DAYS even though seasonal hunger can last OR MORE up to three months. 40% My colleagues and I have experi- mented with a different approach: 30% Instead of forcing job creation where people are, why not move people to 20% where the jobs are? Even during lean seasons, when employment opportuni- 10% ties dry up in rural areas, many low-skill 0 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June July FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 7



































damaging chlorofluorocarbons, the ozone situa- tion has stabilized, and a full planetary recovery is expected. As this case showed, space can pro- vide the vital information needed to understand a problem—and a surprising range of ways to solve it. Climate change is a poster child for the critical role of space data. Trekking across the globe to measure ice sheets with drills and gauge sea tem- peratures from the sides of ships is an expensive, slow, and insufficient way to assay the state of the planet. Satellites operated by NASA, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra- tion, and an increasing number of commercial firms provide a plethora of multispectral imaging and radar measurements of developments such as coral reef degradation, harmful plankton blooms, and polar bears negotiating thinning ice. Much of the technology involved in observing the Earth today was initially developed for probes sent to explore other planets in our solar system. Indeed, understanding the evolution of other planets’ climates is essential for modeling possible outcomes on Earth. NASA probes revealed how, roughly 4 billion years ago, a runaway greenhouse gas syndrome turned Venus into a hot, hellish, and uninhabitable planet of acid rain. Orbiters, landers, and rovers continue to unravel the pro- cesses that transformed a once warm and wet Mars into a frigid, dry dust ball—and scientists even to conceive of future scenarios that might terraform it back into a livable planet. Discovering other worlds’ history and imagining their future offers important visions for climate change mitigation strategies on Earth, such as mining helium from the moon itself for future clean energy. Spinoff technologies from space research, from GPS to semiconductor solar cells, are already help- ing to reduce emissions; the efficiency gains of GPS-guided navigation shrink fuel expenditures on sea, land, and air by between 15 and 21 per- cent—a greater reduction than better engines or fuel changes have so far provided. Modern solar photovoltaic power also owes its existence to space. The first real customer for solar energy was the U.S. space program; applications such as the giant solar wings that power the International Space Station have continually driven improvements in solar cell performance, and NASA first demonstrated the value of the sun for powering communities on Earth by using solar in its own facilities. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 25

Promisingly, space-based solar power structures, such as solar power stations, Launch Alliance, envisions a future in stations could overcome the inconve- in space. As these technologies develop, which a thousand or more people work nient truth that wind and solar will they will augment each other, bringing in Earth and moon orbits. These people never get us anywhere near zero emis- costs down dramatically; space manu- would build stations, conduct research, sions because their output is inher- facturing, for instance, slashes the cost and produce goods for use in space and ently intermittent and there is, so far, of solar installations in space. on Earth. The Amazon mogul Jeff Bezos no environmentally acceptable way to Eventually, firms will be able to sup- imagines a spacefaring civilization that store their power at a global scale, even ply endeavors in space with materials keeps our home planet pristine and pro- for one night. Orbital solar power sta- from the moon and asteroids, avoiding tected, as a sort of national park, while tions, on the other hand, would con- the cost and environmental impact of dirty extractive and manufacturing pro- tinually face the sun, beaming clean lifting them into orbit. Mining the solar cesses take place in orbital facilities. power back through targeted radia- system comes with its own potential SpaceX’s Elon Musk wants to transform tion to Earth day or night, regardless impacts, but extracting resources from Mars back into the healthy world it once of weather. They would also be free from distant and lifeless worlds is clearly was and then fill it with life-forms from clouds and atmospheric interference preferable to the continued degrada- Earth—including a significant human and therefore operate with many times tion of the Earth. population. Some experts have mocked the efficiency of current solar technol- Perhaps the most powerful role space this idea. But experts also lampooned ogy. Moving solar power generation can play is as inspiration. Space tourism Musk’s plans for reusing rocket boost- away from Earth—already possible might seem like a frivolity for the rich, ers and building a high-performance but held back by the current steep costs of lifting the materials into space—would MINING THE SOLAR SYSTEM COMES WITH ITS preserve land and OWN POTENTIAL IMPACTS, BUT EXTRACTING cultural resources RESOURCES FROM DISTANT AND LIFELESS from the blight of WORLDS IS CLEARLY PREFERABLE TO THE huge panel farms CONTINUED DEGRADATION OF THE EARTH. and save landfills from the growing problem of discarded old solar panels. Sustainable energy advocates in the but it can be so much more. I’ve spent electric car for the masses. U.S. military and the Chinese govern- some time with astronauts, and they The fact is that while some of the plans ment are actively pursuing space-based all report that seeing the Earth with- described by Musk, Bezos, and others solar power, but just making solar cells out borders and observing its fragile might seem utopian or hubristic, given damages the environment due to the atmosphere shook them to their core, the realities of climate change, humanity caustic chemicals employed. Space inspiring in them a powerful sense of needs hope. A future that concentrates PREVIOUS SPREAD: NASA VIA SCIENCE SOCIETY PICTURE LIBRARY/GETTY IMAGES technology offers the possibility of free- connection and respect for the envi- only on managing apocalypse, without ing the Earth’s fragile biosphere and ronment. As Andrew Newberg, a neu- offering the potential for something culturally important sites from the oth- roscientist and physician who has better, is no future at all. In the worst erwise unavoidable damage caused by studied this “overview effect,” put it, scenario, our precious blue-and-green manufacturing and mining. “You can often tell when you’re with marble will end up looking like its neigh- The U.S. start-up Made in Space is someone who has flown in space. It’s bors Venus or Mars simply because we currently taking the first steps toward palpable.” Subjecting thousands of the chose not to learn from them. Q manufacturing in orbit. The company’s world’s wealthiest and most powerful fiber-optic cable, produced by machin- individuals to a transcendent experi- GREG AUTRY (@GregWAutry) is the direc- ery on the International Space Station, ence couldn’t hurt—especially if less tor of the Southern California Com- is orders of magnitude more efficient wealthy Earthlings soon get a chance mercial Spaceflight Initiative at the than anything made on Earth, where to follow them. University of Southern California, the heavy gravity creates tiny flaws in The leaders of the biggest space firms vice president at the National Space the material. Made in Space and others are already thinking way beyond tour- Society, and chair of the International are eventually planning to build large ism. Tory Bruno, the CEO of United Space Development Conference. 26 SUMMER 2019

THE BOTANIST PLANTS SUCK UP LOTS OF HARMFUL CARBON DIOXIDE. ONE SCIENTIST THINKS SHE CAN SUPERCHARGE THEM TO DO MUCH MORE. INTERVIEW BY RAVI AGRAWAL Seedlings in a grow room, above; Joanne Chory at the Salk Institute. JOHN FRANCIS PETERS FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 27

WHO WILL SAVE THE PLANET? THE FIGHT AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE MAY SEEM HOPELESS, but more suberin. All we have to do is make them humanity has a simple and powerful ally in plain sight: plants. about 2 percent more efficient at redistributing At least that’s the belief of the botanist Joanne Chory and her carbon than they are right now, and we can effect team of scientists at the Salk Institute for Biological Studies a global change. in San Diego. FP: Explain what exactly suberin is and how you As part of her Harnessing Plants Initiative, Chory is would increase its production. focused on genetically modifying plants to absorb more JC: You know the cork tree? That’s a form of sub- carbon dioxide—and then hold on to it for longer—than erin—cork is one kind of suberin molecule. All their wild cousins through a larger and deeper network of of these molecules are characterized by this mid- carbon-storing roots, creating so-called Ideal Plants. Every dle portion, which is just carbon after carbon year, humanity emits 37 gigatons of carbon dioxide; pho- after carbon. That’s the part that doesn’t break tosynthetic life can process and capture nearly half of that down. It’s called refractory or recalcitrant. So amount. Chory believes that coaxing a little more produc- that carbon will stay in the soil. If you look at a tivity out of plants could make a dramatic difference. And carbon-rich soil like peat, it’s full of molecules she has no shortage of backers: In April, Chory received a that are carbon-rich, and these molecules look more than $35 million Audacious Project prize to drive her a lot like suberin. Most soil in the United States team’s research. is depleted of carbon. If we put carbon back into soils, that would be a co-benefit of the sequestra- Any project on climate science is a race against time. That’s tion process that we’re expanding. particularly true in Chory’s case: Now in her 60s, she has been battling Parkinson’s disease for several years. FOREIGN POLICY: Tell us about the Ideal Plant project. When FP: So, in a sense, you’re accelerating what nature did it start? already does? JOANNE CHORY: The Ideal Plant project was officially launched JC: That’s right. We’re supercharging plants just by in 2017. It proposes a different way of thinking about climate giving them a little more of a molecule they already change in casting carbon dioxide as a friend—as opposed to a make. The Ideal Plant is so cool because it’s seques- villain in some epic, horrible science fiction story. Plants have tering carbon safe in the earth from human activ- evolved over the last 500 million years to suck up carbon diox- ity that’s causing the planet to overheat. ide. They’re really good at it. We decided to take advantage of that to come up with a cost-effective and efficient way of FP: How much are you hoping to achieve through actually pulling carbon dioxide down from the atmosphere this supercharging process? and sequestering it down into the soil—where it should be. FP: What’s so important about “WE’RE SUPERCHARGING PLANTS JUST carbon dioxide? BY GIVING THEM A LITTLE MORE OF JC: There’s this huge system A M O L E C U L E T H E Y A L R E A DY M A K E .” called the carbon cycle [the process by which organisms absorb atmospheric carbons and then transmit them back into the atmosphere]. We’re throwing the carbon cycle out JC: If we could pull down 10 percent of those 20 giga- of balance by creating an extra 37 gigatons of carbon diox- tons [of extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere], ide every year. Our ecosystem can naturally take up 17 giga- so 2 gigatons, that’s a global change. If you just put tons of that carbon dioxide in the soil and the ocean. But the a plant in the soil and you don’t till the soil, some other 20 gigatons is what’s been heating up the atmosphere amount of carbon will get trapped. And then if and wreaking havoc with our weather systems. There’s an we have our suberin-supercharged plants in the urgency to deal with that. And one way to solve that prob- same soil, how much carbon will be sequestered lem is to have plants absorb some of those carbons. The in it? It’s going to take a couple of years of making Ideal Plant project has chosen a compound that all plants measurements once we have those plants in the make in their roots: It’s called suberin, and it’s the perfect soil. The main thing about what we’re doing is it’s carbon storage device. We’re trying to get plants to make scalable. Land is what’s really missing here for 28 SUMMER 2019

the Earth right now because we have a lot of ecosystems that have been destroyed. Climate change is causing more destruction. FP: How do you get farmers on board to Ideal Plants in use these supercharged plants? What’s the grow room at their incentive to join you? the Salk Institute JC: Farmers have a tough life as it is. They’re always mortgaging their house FP: There’s also some opposition to regulatory affairs a little bit. If we don’t every year when they start their grow- genetically modified organisms, espe- get the message out there, then people ing season. They can’t tolerate a loss in cially in the European Union, which has who might be willing to help us in some yield. That’s something we have to be outlawed them. What will those restric- way won’t know we exist. very cognizant of and make sure that tions mean for your project? we have plants that will be attractive to JC: I’d like to say we don’t think fears FP: You’ve spoken quite openly and pow- the farmers. Also our plants are going to about genetic modifications are the big- take about 10 years to really get online, gest issue right now. We really think we erfully about the constraints of time. and by then, things might be so bad should try to save the planet first. But if that maybe we will have carbon taxes there is opposition in Europe and India Not only is the climate crisis truly upon on companies that aren’t compliant on and a few other countries that aren’t on carbon footprint regulations. Maybe board with genetically modified organ- us, but you’ve been battling a debilitat- there will be credits for farmers who isms, then we have to take that into con- have crops that suck up carbon dioxide. sideration because we need the land ing disease yourself. that their crops are being grown on as FP: Some critics might say that solutions well. There’s a way to do it by breeding, JC: My Parkinson’s definitely made me such as yours merely maintain the sta- of course, because there’s a lot of natural tus quo, especially since any real solu- variations for a trait like the amount of sit back and think. I’ve had a wonderful tion would have to focus on actually suberin a plant makes. I think it can be reducing carbon emissions. How do done, but it’ll just take longer. career. I’ve raised two children during you respond? JC: I think we have to reduce our carbon FP: What are the other roadblocks you that career while I’ve had Parkinson’s. emissions, but it’s taking us a while to face? even make a dent in that. People don’t JC: I think the major roadblock was They don’t really remember me with- have the bandwidth to think about science. It’s really new science. But enduring hardship right now to help that’s the part that we feel most at ease out the disease, unfortunately. But that’s future generations—people they don’t with just because it’s something we’ve even know yet. I think that philosoph- been doing. The other big challenge for life—it’s my life anyway. I’ve had a really ically it’s a hard thing to reduce emis- us is policy. We have to start thinking sions to the level that we’ve been asked ahead to three years from now when we lovely time at the Salk Institute. I’ve had by the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- might have seeds. What are the laws that mate Change, for instance. The second we would like to have in place? What are great colleagues here and a wonderful issue is the fact that photosynthesis can the regulatory affairs that might get our reduce the carbon that’s already up there plants approved faster if the govern- work environment to be in. I get to enjoy as long as everybody pitches in. If we all ment thought about it now? Another were aware of our carbon footprint so that bottleneck is to get the farmers to want the Pacific Ocean and beautiful sunsets we emitted less and we brought on new our product because that would ease technologies that don’t rely on carbon every day. But I said I’d wake up and start for energy, then we could reduce emis- sions even more. We’re not claiming that doing something for the planet and for we can do it by ourselves. We just want to be a part of the process. We think we my kids and grandchildren who might have a good idea and it’s worth exploring. come along someday. I feel like I have the weight of the world on my shoulders. And we have no choice but to try. I think we have a great team, and they’ll carry on without me in a year or two or three. I don’t know how long I’ll be around. But they can do it. I know that. Q JOHN FRANCIS PETERS This conversation has been condensed and edited for publication. RAVI AGRAWAL (@RaviReports) is the managing editor of FOREIGN POLICY. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 29

Greta Thunberg attends the Youth for Climate march in Brussels on Feb. 21. 30 SUMMER 2019

WHO WILL SAVE THE PLANET? THE YOUNG MINORS CARE MORE ABOUT FIXING THE WORLD BUT THAT WON’T HELP UNLESS WE CHANGE THE WAY OUR DEMOCRACIES WORK. BY DAVID RUNCIMAN IN TODAY’S BRITAIN, A RARE PUBLIC FIGURE can bring together Brexiteers and Remainers, Conserva- tives and Labour. Yet the teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg did just that on a visit to London in April, when she was feted by British politicians from across the political spectrum. In an address to Parliament, Thunberg said she spoke for the children who had been betrayed by politicians and voters who had failed to prevent climate change. She also claimed to speak for the unborn billions of people who will bear the brunt of a rapidly warming world. “I am 16 years old,” she said. “I come from Sweden. And I speak on behalf of future generations. … Now we probably don’t even have a future anymore.” It would have taken a very brave politician to downplay the stark moral power of this message. None of her British interlocutors—from Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to would-be Tory leader Michael Gove to the speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow—dared. Instead, they all accepted the charges laid against them and promised to do better. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 31

Thunberg’s remarks showcased the profound gulf between icies. Tackling climate change is going to require younger and older generations when it comes to climate significant behavioral change: in what we eat, politics: the clash between those with the power to act and where we live, and how we travel. Current patterns those who must live with the consequences if they don’t. of food and energy consumption are unsustain- The climate crisis is an issue that requires long-term think- able. If we and the planet are to survive, that will ing across the generations, yet electoral politics is geared mean less meat, smaller homes, and fewer cars. toward responding to immediate grievances. Politicians The old, however, tend to find changing their can talk about taking the long view, but without institu- behavior to be more difficult than the young do. tional changes to the way we practice democracy, they are Again, this is not because they don’t care about unlikely to look beyond short-term political gains. the future of the planet nor simply because they The young and the old increasingly look like two distinct won’t have to live with the consequences of failing political tribes, and the differences are perhaps starkest over to change. It is because age brings experience, and climate change. Recent polling in Britain indicates that for experience brings an aversion to loss. The older we nearly half of all voters aged 18 to 24, global warming represents are, the more likely we are to have things we don’t the most pressing issue of our time. Less than 20 percent of want to give up. People who have never driven a voters over 65 think the same. In the United States, only 10 car will find it far easier to do without than people percent of eligible voters aged 18 to 29 describe climate change who have used one for their entire lives. as a “not very serious problem,” compared with 40 percent of One solution to this generational imbalance those over 65 who call it that. might be to simply wait it out, since younger gen- Observing the generational divide on climate change is erations will replace older ones before too long. If easier than accounting for it. Thunberg’s rhetoric implies generational divisions are primarily attitudinal the distinction is a matter of morality: The older genera- rather than material, there is reason to think that tions simply don’t care about the interests of the younger young people will persist in their concern about ones. Yet it is far from clear that older voters are less wor- climate change as they age. Eventually the col- ried about climate change primarily because they won’t be lege-educated young of the present will become around to see the worst of it. Older voters care about many the college-educated old of the future. The cli- things that don’t directly concern them. For instance, in the mate crisis will rise up the political agenda as cli- U.K., education ranks almost as highly for those over 65 as it mate-conscious generations ascend the age ladder. does for those under 30. The problem is that the climate can’t wait that Nevertheless, climate change has become a contest of long. Today’s enlightened young will not age worldviews split along generational lines—and it’s a con- quickly enough; decisive action needs to be taken test that older voters are winning. That should be no sur- before 2030, as the Intergovernmental Panel on prise. After all, they are both more numerous and more Climate Change now insists. likely to vote than their younger coun- terparts. When Thunberg speaks CLIMATE CHANGE HAS BECOME A CONTEST for the generations OF WORLDVIEWS SPLIT ALONG GENERATIONAL yet to come, she has LINES AND IT’S A CONTEST THAT OLDER the numbers on her VOTERS ARE WINNING. side—the unborn limitlessly outnum- ber the currently PREVIOUS SPREAD: SYLVAIN LEFEVRE/GETTY IMAGES living. But when it comes to actual voters, the math favors the climate skep- One way to make that happen would be to tics or at least the people who have other priorities. Our redress the imbalance directly by lowering the world hasn’t just warmed rapidly in recent decades—it has voting age. Watching the 16-year-old Thunberg also aged even faster. put Britain’s political leaders in their place, it was If democratic politicians are to make good on their prom- hard to think of a good reason why she should not ises to Thunberg and her peers, one of the largest barriers in be allowed to vote. But still, the politically plau- their way are their own electorates. And citizens may become sible proposals—such as extending the franchise more antagonistic as governments push forward on new pol- to 16- and 17-year-olds—would not be enough 32 SUMMER 2019

WHO WILL SAVE THE PLANET? to make a decisive difference. The changes that But there are two reasons to doubt that this is what the could actually tip the numerical balance—such as climate emergency needs. First, any transition from a dem- extending the vote to all school-age children—are ocratic to a post-democratic system would be massively too contentious to be practicable. Giving children disruptive. The barriers in the way of action on climate are the vote is unlikely to lessen generational divi- also barriers to other forms of radical political change. There sions over climate change. It could make those would be resistance, including from older generations. Sec- divisions worse—and thus set back progress on ond, it would not satisfy Thunberg’s generation either. She climate policy—if it looks like an obvious ploy to was not asking for less democracy. She was asking for a diminish the voting power of their grandparents. democracy in which she could be heard. What’s needed instead are demo- cratic reforms capa- POLITICIANS WHO ARE UNMOVED BY ELECTORAL ble of moving past THREATS, AND CITIZENS OTHERWISE COMMITTED the generational TO STATUS QUO POLICY, CAN SOMETIMES BE impasse in electoral JOLTED INTO ACTION BY STREET PROTESTS, politics. One alter- ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE SUSTAINED OVER native is more delib- LONG PERIODS OF TIME. erative democracy, which would allow individuals with dif- ferent points of view to engage with each Maintaining the current voting age but phasing other directly, free from partisan representation. They might out votes for the very elderly is likely to be just not end up agreeing, but at least they would be speaking for as divisive. Appearing to gerrymander the entire themselves and encountering new opportunities to reach electoral system, even with the best of intentions, consensus. In citizens’ assemblies, school-age children and will do little to bring the tribes together. their grandparents’ generation could jointly participate in Bridging the generational divide is likely to political discussion and decision-making—so long as poli- require other kinds of institutional change. The cymakers agree to bind their own decisions to the outcomes evidence of the last 30-plus years of climate politics of these deliberations. suggests that electoral democracy is not well suited Another alternative would be more radical direct democ- to reaching a consensus on what is to be done. The racy. Politicians who are unmoved by electoral threats, and inevitable partisanship of this form of politics rein- citizens otherwise committed to status quo policy, can some- forces wider social divisions. Different perspectives times be jolted into action by street protests, especially if on the long-term future get turned into polarized they are sustained over long periods of time. Thunberg’s positions on climate change, making it harder to London trip coincided with widespread protests by the group reach a shared perspective on carbon emissions Extinction Rebellion, which has adopted tactics inspired by and renewable energy. Party politics drowns out Martin Luther King Jr. and the U.S. civil rights movement. the pursuit of common ground. Acts of civil disobedience brought parts of London to a halt If electoral democracy is inadequate to the task to raise awareness of the moral urgency of the issue. Some of addressing climate change, and the task is the of those taking part were very young—Extinction Rebel- most urgent one humanity faces, then other kinds lion has a youth wing. But others were not, including Phil of politics are urgently needed. The most radical Kingston, who was arrested after climbing onto the roof of alternative of all would be to consider moving a train at 83 years old. beyond democracy altogether. The authoritar- Channeling more energy into these other forms of democ- ian Chinese system has some advantages when it racy—into citizens’ assemblies and civil disobedience, rather comes to addressing climate change: One-party than elections and party-building—will change our politics rule means freedom from electoral cycles and less drastically. But it may be the only way to ensure our planet need for public consultation. Technocratic solu- does not change beyond recognition. Q tions that put power in the hands of unelected experts could take key decisions out of the hands DAVID RUNCIMAN is a politics professor at Cambridge Univer- of voters. sity and the author of How Democracy Ends. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 33

WHO WILL SAVE THE PLANET? SUBTLE SHIFTS DRAMATIC PROJECTS WON’T A wind farm PATRICK PLEUL/AFP/GETTY IMAGES SAVE THE WORLD. SLOW, QUIET, in Jacobsdorf, INCREMENTAL CHANGES ARE Germany, on Feb. 27. THE PLANET’S BEST HOPE. has moved on to other strategies. For the first time BY TED NORDHAUS since climate change emerged as a significant issue in the early 1990s, establishing a price on carbon RECENT MONTHS HAVE SEEN SOMETHING OF A TURNAROUND in the is no longer the starting point and central focus conventional wisdom about how to address climate change. of the climate policy response at the federal level. In December, on the weekend before the Swedish Academy presented the Nobel Prize to my uncle, the economist Wil- The Green New Deal, as Ocasio-Cortez and oth- liam Nordhaus, for his work on climate change and carbon ers have proposed it, is unlikely to offer a practi- taxes, France’s yellow vest movement flooded into the streets, cal alternative to pricing schemes. But even as it shutting down Paris and other cities across the country and has become a lightning rod for partisan conflict, forcing President Emmanuel Macron to rescind the carbon it does point the way toward other opportunities tax he had recently imposed on transportation fuels. for substantive climate action—quiet, more incre- mental steps that might prove capable of break- A month earlier, voters in Washington state, as environ- ing the deadlock that has paralyzed progress on mentally minded a place as you will find in the United States, mitigating climate change. soundly rejected a ballot initiative that would have estab- lished a carbon tax in that state. Meanwhile, residents of New CARBON PRICING’S GREATEST STRENGTH has turned York’s 14th District elected Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to Con- out to be its Achilles’s heel. Theoretically, pricing gress. Ocasio-Cortez, a self-described democratic socialist, works because it sends a signal to consumers and promised to return the Democratic Party to its working-class businesses to reduce their consumption of things roots with a Green New Deal that would combine massive that produce a lot of carbon dioxide emissions. public subsidies for clean energy with universal health care Firms invest in new equipment or switch to less and a government jobs guarantee. She explicitly contrasted her proposal with market-based efforts to price carbon, which she dismissed as a sellout to corporate interests. Within weeks, most of the major contenders for the Democratic presiden- tial nomination had jumped on her bandwagon. The prospects of implementing a price on carbon—long a north star for economists, policy wonks, and much of the institutional environmental movement—now appear to be severely diminished. In the face of voters unwilling to pay higher energy prices, politicians wary of an increasingly pop- ulist electorate, and center-left political parties skeptical of market-based policies, much of the advocacy community 34 SUMMER 2019

carbon-intensive materials. Consumers turn down But in most cases, the reaction to price shocks has the thermostat, drive less, buy more fuel-efficient extended well beyond consumers and businesses respond- automobiles, and fly less frequently. ing to prices. Governments also invested in new infrastruc- ture, such as mass transit and nuclear power plants, and In the parlance of economists and political sci- ploughed money into research and development for new entists, carbon taxes are highly salient, meaning energy technologies. Historically, energy scarcity, whether that people will do more to avoid paying the tax due to an act of God or malice, has sparked a very broad than they would in response to the same increase response from the entire political economy. in the market cost of energy. But that salience also makes carbon pricing politically toxic; taxes often Such an effort, of course, is exactly the sort of thing that many stoke an outsized reaction even when they are very people believe is necessary to address climate change. But modest. One response to a carbon tax is to wrap producing scarcity by political fiat is much harder in the real your hot water heater in a thermal blanket and world than in an economist’s model. And the factors that work install double-paned windows. Another is to riot. for you when the price shock is exogenous—the mobilization of the public, businesses, and government to solve the prob- It is also not clear that consumers’ reactions to lem—more often work against you when it is self-administered. carbon prices translate very well into a national or global response capable of deeply cutting emis- Climate advocates commonly reduce this dynamic to the sions. Much of the real-world evidence that carbon outsized economic power of the fossil fuel industry. But the pricing might be effective derives from observa- economic interests of that industry are often closely aligned tions about how economies respond when energy with the interests of many others. Members of Congress end prices spike sharply upward, as they did after the up hearing concerns not only from fossil fuel players but from oil shocks of the 1970s. local manufacturers worried about how higher energy prices will affect the cost of manufacturing widgets, from farmers worried about fertilizer prices, and from the John Deere dealer around the corner who worries about tractor sales. Compared with these sorts of local and immediate concerns, appeals to intergenerational equity and the vulnerability of the global poor simply can’t compete. THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE that a major climate initia- tive wrapped in the language of socialism and the Green New Deal is likely to fare any better than have similarly ambitious measures that have claimed the mantle of markets. Already, the Senate has voted 57-0 against the Green New Deal res- olution sponsored by Ocasio-Cortez, with most Democrats voting present in order to avoid having to place a vote on the measure on the record. Yet the Green New Deal contains a crucial insight. Econ- omists argue for carbon pricing because it makes the social cost of carbon visible in our day-to-day consumption. Vot- ers and politicians, by contrast, have generally preferred to hide the costs of climate mitigation. Policies to subsidize clean energy technology—including nuclear, wind, and solar—have tended to be far more successful politically than efforts to price carbon. Government subsidies typically make economists pull their hair out. They encourage rent seeking and require policymakers with imperfect knowledge to make decisions about which technologies to champion. And it’s true, from synthetic fuels to biofuels, Solyndra solar cells to plutonium breeder reactors, governments have bet on plenty of energy technology losers. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 35

WHO WILL SAVE THE PLANET? But governments have picked plenty an explicit, far-reaching, economywide their members. Republicans, mean- of winners as well. Washington may approach to the problem. while, stoke fear among their base and have wasted billions of dollars in the donors that climate action will wreck 1970s and 1980s on synthetic fuels, Unfortunately, there is little evidence the economy and expand the power of but during the same period, it spent to back that idea. For this reason, it is the federal government. a fraction of that on shale gas, which likely that a quieter and less sweeping has brought such extraordinary eco- approach to addressing climate change, Even so, a number of Republican nomic benefits to the U.S. economy that one that disaggregates the costs of the officeholders have quietly concluded it alone has probably made up for the policy and avoids becoming a rallying that outright climate denial is a polit- cost of all other federal energy invest- point for either climate advocates or their ical liability and have recently offered ments since the end of World War II. It opponents, will prove more effective. a series of modest proposals explic- has also turned out to be an extremely itly focused on climate mitigation and cost-effective climate policy. Calculated In contrast to most current climate adaptation. Democrats, meanwhile, on a per ton basis, the investment pen- advocacy efforts, which seek to raise have come around to the view that cils out to perhaps a few dollars per ton the salience of the climate problem nuclear energy, carbon capture, inno- of carbon emissions avoided, a cost that in order to motivate politically diffi- vation, and adaptation will be neces- continues to fall with every ton of coal cult and economically costly climate sary to address the climate challenge. that shale gas replaces. action, quiet climate policy seeks to deescalate the political controversies In these evolving attitudes, there is U.S. investments in nuclear energy associated with climate change and the possibility of progress. By shifting have proved similarly efficient. Over break up the costs of climate action. the climate debate from one in which the last half-century, nuclear plants one party posits an existential threat have avoided somewhere between 15 Examples include establishing a fed- demanding solutions that serve its own and 20 gigatons of carbon emissions, eral clean energy standard that would interests and the other denies that the at a cost of less than $5 per ton. Renew- require utilities to gradually transition problem even exists for similar reasons able energy subsidies, although costly entirely to zero-carbon technologies to one in which both parties acknowl- today, may also wind up being low-cost over the coming decades. Or govern- edge that the problem exists and offer climate mitigation over the long term. ment procurement at the U.S. Defense competing solutions to address it, there Department and national laboratories is at least the possibility of compromise. Beyond the efficacy of those invest- could be used to create initial markets ments, the fact that they obscure the for promising small nuclear reactors Ultimately, the choice we face is cost of climate mitigation policies is a and geothermal and energy storage between some action and no action. political feature, not a bug. Pricing car- technologies. Providing U.S. farmers Neither economists’ dreams of ratio- bon is hard because it demands that peo- with technology and incentives to nalizing environmental policy through ple pay today to avoid uncertain climate become more carbon efficient could the power and efficiency of markets impacts far off into the future. Because bring huge benefits for the climate, nor progressive environmentalists’ public subsidies are usually paid for with as could government investment to hopes of heroic state-led mobilization general tax revenue, they work in exactly develop zero-carbon technologies for to save the planet are likely to do much the opposite manner, promising tangi- industrial heat and power. to address the problem. ble benefits—better air quality, new jobs, perhaps even new industries—today Working toward decarbonization, Quiet climate policy, by contrast, is while burying the costs in much larger technology by technology and sector by the art of the possible, focused on reduc- government budgets. sector, on a bipartisan basis and through ing the costs of action, disentangling careful negotiation with key stakehold- climate policy from the ideological dis- FEDERAL CARBON TAX PROPOSALS and the ers is the sort of thing that Congress still putes and electoral calculations that Green New Deal may seem antitheti- occasionally manages to do—as recent drive the national political conversa- cal to each other, insofar as the former legislative efforts to support commer- tion, and lowering the political thresh- would pull technology into the market cialization of advanced nuclear and car- old for meaningful action. The solution by increasing the cost of dirty energy bon capture technologies demonstrate. it offers may be rather less satisfying. whereas the latter depends on push- But it is also likely to accomplish far ing it into the market through public Unfortunately, quiet climate policy more than any of the alternatives. Q investment. But they share a common presently serves the broader political assumption: Concern about climate and institutional needs of almost none TED NORDHAUS (@TedNordhaus) is an change is significant enough to support of the parties involved. Democrats use author, environmental policy expert, climate change to rally their base, and and the founder of the Breakthrough environmental nongovernmental orga- Institute. nizations use it to raise money from 36 SUMMER 2019

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38 SUMMER 2019

Illustration by ULI KNÖRZER The 2020 Candidates Aren’t Talking About Foreign Policy. They Need to Start. The United States caused many of the world’s problems and can still unmake them—but only if its leaders face up to the challenge. By JONATHAN TEPPERMAN FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 39

election 2020 ONE OF THE MOST STRIKING THINGS ABOUT THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY SO FAR— The structural problems include aside from the sheer number of candidates running—is how little any of threats like climate change, inequal- them has said about foreign policy. With very few exceptions (like one- ity, populism, and the rapid aging of off essays by Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders), the group has the developed world. These challenges largely ignored the rest of the world and focused on domestic issues. are the result of slow-moving trends Such neglect probably shouldn’t come as a surprise. Few of the gov- and tectonic shifts that most of us have ernors, senators, and mayors now running for president have inter- long ignored but that are now, finally, national experience to draw on. And they know that while American demanding our attention. (It’s hard to voters do care about foreign policy, especially when it comes to fight- disregard man-made weather changes, ing terrorism and protecting U.S. jobs, most don’t care about it as for example, when your house is flooded much as they do about domestic issues. Very few U.S. presidents have or the bees that usually pollinate your won office by building their campaigns around international themes. crops have vanished.) Because these Despite that reality, the fact that even the current candidates who threats are widely distributed—a new do have serious foreign-policy chops, like former Vice President Joe study by the United Nations estimates Biden, aren’t talking about the subject is a big problem, for two reasons. that up to a million plant and animal The first is that this is a particularly fraught and dangerous moment species now face extinction—took a for the United States and the world. The international order seems less long time to develop, and resulted from steady today than at any other time in the last 70-odd years. China and broad structural forces, they are hard for (with the U.S. president’s inexplicable acquiescence) Russia are grow- any government to grapple with, espe- ing ever more sophisticated and aggressive in their challenges to the cially on its own (though that doesn’t United States and its allies. Europe is leaderless and confounded by mean they shouldn’t try). Brexit. Cyberattacks and election interference are proliferating. Amer- But the second set of threats now icans are still fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan and terrorist groups facing the United States is different. (including the Islamic State) around the world. Populism and other Problems like Russian and Chinese bel- forms of extremism are rising. Deadly, extreme weather-related catastro- ligerence, the Islamic State, Afghani- phes are growing increasingly common. And the list goes on and on. stan, the chaos in Libya, or the havoc The second reason it’s a prob- lem that the candidates are ignoring foreign policy is that many of the threats now facing WHILE THE UNITED STATES the country were caused—or at HAS MADE A NUMBER OF BIG, least intensified—by Washing- CONSEQUENTIAL MISTAKES IN ton itself. For Americans, that RECENT YEARS, THE GOOD NEWS IS thought should be chastening. But it should also be a source of TH AT, W H AT WASHINGTON DID, IT hope. While the United States CAN, IN MANY CASES, ALSO UNDO. has made a number of big, con- sequential mistakes in recent years, the good news is that, what Washington did, it can, in many cases, also undo—or at least being wrecked in Syria, Yemen, and work to remedy. But only if its leaders, and the country as a whole, elsewhere by Saudi Arabia and Iran can start facing up to the issues. all be traced to things the United States has either done or should have done but didn’t. That doesn’t mean these prob- lems are all Washington’s fault. But in every case, they’ve been made worse by American blunders and, above all, by TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THIS POINT—that much of our current mess is at the perception that the United States least partially America’s doing, and why that’s a good thing—it helps to is withdrawing from the world. break the long list of looming international challenges into two groups: That perception dates back to the one structural and the other contingent. 2008 financial crisis, which took some 40 SUMMER 2019

of the shine off the U.S. economic they can do whatever they want, especially in their own neighborhoods— model and was interpreted (especially think eastern Ukraine or the South China Sea—without having to worry in Beijing) as a sign of American weak- that Washington will try very hard to stop them. Russia’s election inter- ness—never mind that the country has ference and attempts to intimidate its neighbors, China’s island build- since enjoyed one of the longest recov- ing, its cyberattacks, and its campaign to covertly extend its influence in eries in history. All of a sudden, the Western countries with large ethnic Chinese populations—these actions preeminence the United States had and many others can all be attributed to the same basic assumption about enjoyed since the end of the Cold War, America’s weakness and its lack of stomach for a fight. Similar assumptions have also encouraged many tradi- tional U.S. allies to start hedg- THIS RECORD HAS LED TO A ing their bets by preparing GROWING CONSENSUS THAT THE for a world in which they can UNITED STATES NO LONGER CARES no longer depend on Ameri- MUCH ABOUT THE WORLD BEYOND can leadership or protection. Such hedging has taken several ITS BORDERS—OR, WORSE, THAT IT’S forms, from the announcement TOO WEAK TO DO MUCH ABOUT IT. in March that Italy would join China’s world-spanning Belt and Road Initiative to the deci- sion by the other 11 members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership to and had managed to maintain even proceed with the trade pact, which Trump has spurned, on their own. through disasters like the war in Iraq, The final impact the growing perception of American indifference didn’t look so stable. has had is to signal to various U.S. proxies—countries like Saudi Ara- Concern intensified during the pres- bia and the United Arab Emirates, which enjoy generous U.S. military idency of Barack Obama, whose read- backing—that they can pursue their own narrow objectives without ing of the U.S. public, innate caution, getting permission from Washington first, as they might have done in and desire to avoid doing “stupid shit” the past. Among other things, that shift explains the catastrophic Saudi led him to pursue a policy of retrench- and Emirati intervention in Yemen’s civil war; their support (along with ment—even when that meant drawing Egypt) for the aspiring Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar, who is now red lines and then failing to defend them. trying to bomb Tripoli into submission; and other ugly little struggles And things have gone into overdrive underwritten by American funds and guns. under President Donald Trump, as he has found ever more creative ways to coddle Russian President Vladimir Putin and other autocrats while antagonizing and embarrassing U.S. friends and allies, undermining international institutions, THE ALARMING THING ABOUT ALL THREE OF THESE TRENDS—U.S. adversaries ignoring human rights, and making it feeling their oats, American allies starting to hedge, and proxies act- clear he has no interest in helping to ing irresponsibly—is that they’re currently gathering force. We should resolve conflicts like the Syrian civil war. expect more of all three forms of behavior in the months and years ahead. This record has led to a growing con- The good thing is that, because they’re based more on rhetoric than sensus that the United States no longer reality, they’re all reversible (at least to some degree). cares much about the world beyond its To see why, start with the fact that much of the handwringing about borders—or, worse, that it’s too weak to U.S. decline and the end of the American century has been overwrought do much about it if it wanted to. That and overstated. While there is no question that the power differen- consensus has affected the rest of the tial separating the United States from some would-be competitors is planet in three key ways. shrinking, the reality is that the country still retains a massive edge in First, it has helped convince leaders hard power, by just about any measurement. Despite widespread fears in places like Moscow and Beijing that that a recession is coming, for example, the U.S. economy remains the FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 41

election 2020 world’s largest and keeps on growing, with an unemployment rate of ception—not the reality—of American just 3.6 percent. The country also hosts world-beating technology, weakness, then there’s reason to hope finance, entertainment, and higher education sectors. that the next U.S. president will be able The U.S. military, meanwhile, is so overwhelmingly powerful that to turn things around. the country doesn’t just have the world’s largest air force—it also has Doing so won’t be easy—far from the second largest (the U.S. Navy’s). Indeed, America’s military power it. International institutions battered is so unassailable today that even the country’s biggest potential adver- by Trump’s hostility will take time to saries have basically given up on the idea of confronting it directly rebuild. Wary allies will take time to win in a conventional war. And the United States’ physical location remains as advantageous as ever. Kori Schake of the International IF MANY OF TODAY’S PROBLEMS Institute for Strategic Studies H AV E BE E N C AU SE D E I T H E R BY has called it “the most propi- TRUMP’S AGGRESSIVE DISDAIN tious geopolitical environment OR BY THE PERCEPTION—NOT any country could hope for,” with good reason: The United THE REALITY—OF A MER ICAN States is surrounded by two WEAKNESS, THEN THERE’S oceans and two friendly neigh- REASON TO HOPE THAT THE bors—unlike China, for example, NEXT U.S. PRESIDENT WILL BE which borders 14 far less conge- nial states. As Tufts University’s ABLE TO TURN THINGS AROUND. Daniel Drezner recently pointed out, the United States not only has more treaty allies than any other country in the world; it has more allies than any country ever. back. And the deterrence of great-power What about other, less material variables, like public and elite opin- adversaries won’t be reestablished over- ion? Here, too, the picture remains far brighter than most people seem night. Meanwhile, the deep dysfunction to realize. And that’s because, while many states may have started wor- of the U.S. political system will make rying about Washington’s reliability, there are still no other plausible reform even more difficult. Overcoming candidates to replace it as the global provider of public goods—to police all these obstacles will take a great deal of sea lanes or lead global efforts to fight problems from pandemics to painstaking planning and a deliberate, cybercrime. Which is why the United States remains—despite all the clearly articulated policy that argues— reckless damage Trump has done—“a dominant power that other strong and then demonstrates, repeatedly— states voluntarily work to support rather than diminish—a historical that the United States is back. anomaly,” as Schake put it. Indeed, that status makes the United States Tough as all that will be, however, it’s unique in today’s world. Few if any countries would want to see Russia, crucial to remember that none of it will say, assume America’s traditional leadership role. And while a handful be impossible. The world’s problems— of autocrats might envy Putin’s success in controlling his population, especially the contingent ones, those tied even they wouldn’t want to adopt his broader approach to running his to U.S. behavior—aren’t unsolvable. In country, which has produced a hollow gas station of an economy and fact, the United States has successfully a declining population. There is no such thing as a “Russian dream.” overcome bigger challenges in its past. As for China, while it has poured money into the developing and But the country won’t be able to do (more recently) developed world in order to extend its influence, many so—indeed, it won’t even start the pro- of these arrangements have been structured as loans so unfair that cess—unless its citizens start talking they’ve prompted furious blowback—see Malaysia or Sri Lanka. And about these problems. Especially those China’s territorial ambitions in the South China Sea have driven many citizens who hope to lead the country of its neighbors, like Vietnam, into America’s arms (whether or not the starting on Jan. 20, 2021. Q current U.S. president is willing to return the embrace). The point here is that if many of today’s international problems JONATHAN TEPPERMAN (@j_tepperman) is have been caused either by Trump’s aggressive disdain or by the per- the editor in chief of FOREIGN POLICY. 42 SUMMER 2019

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