Foreign Policy - #215 November-December 2015

EKD/^/^tKDEKD/^ ^   E  ^  & Z K D  d ,   Ϯ Ϭ ϭ ϱ  t K Z >    ^ ^  D  >z  & K Z  t K D  E  / E  d K < z K On August 28–29, the government of Japan hosted the World Employment rate of women ages 15 to 64 &ŽƌLJĞĂƌƐ͕ƚŚĞh͘^͘ĨĂƌŽƵƚƉĂĐĞĚ:ĂƉĂŶǁŚĞŶŝƚĐĂŵĞƚŽƚŚĞ Assembly for Women in Tokyo: WAW! 2015. This symposium is ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚĂŐĞŽĨǁŽŵĞŶŝŶƚŚĞǁŽƌŬĨŽƌĐĞ͘ƵƚƌĞĐĞŶƚůLJƚŚĂƚ͛Ɛ ŽŶĞŽĨƚŚĞĞīŽƌƚƐƚŽĂĐŚŝĞǀĞ͞^ŽĐŝĞƚLJtŚĞƌĞtŽŵĞŶ^ŚŝŶĞ͕͟Ă ĐŚĂŶŐĞĚ͘ ƉƌŝŽƌŝƚLJŝƐƐƵĞĨŽƌƚŚĞďĞĚŵŝŶŝƐƚƌĂƟŽŶ͘h͘^͘&ŝƌƐƚ>ĂĚLJDŝĐŚĞůůĞ KďĂŵĂ͕/D&DĂŶĂŐŝŶŐŝƌĞĐƚŽƌŚƌŝƐƟŶĞ>ĂŐĂƌĚĞ͕WƌĞƐŝĚĞŶƚ 80% ŽĨ>ŝďĞƌŝĂůůĞŶ:ŽŚŶƐŽŶ^ŝƌůĞĂĨ͕ĂŶĚ>ŽĐŬŚĞĞĚDĂƌƟŶKDĂƌŝůůLJŶ͘ ,ĞǁƐŽŶĚĞůŝǀĞƌĞĚƐƵƉƉŽƌƟŶŐŵĞƐƐĂŐĞƐ͘ Proposals from WAW! 2015 to empower women around 64% Japan ϲϯй U.S. the world include: • ZĞĚƵĐĞůŽŶŐǁŽƌŬŝŶŐŚŽƵƌƐ 2014 60% tWK͘^dͬtKE<>K' • ŶĐŽƵƌĂŐĞĨĞŵĂůĞĂŶĚŵĂůĞůĞĂĚĞƌƐƚŽĞŶŚĂŶĐĞĐĂƌĞĞƌĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ 53% for women 46% • ŶĂďůĞĂůůŐŝƌůƐƚŽĮŶŝƐŚƋƵĂůŝƚLJƉƌŝŵĂƌLJĂŶĚƐĞĐŽŶĚĂƌLJĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶ 40% • WƌŽŵŽƚĞǁŽŵĞŶ͛ƐĂĐƟǀĞƉĂƌƟĐŝƉĂƟŽŶŝŶƉĞĂĐĞďƵŝůĚŝŶŐ 1969 • ƌĞĂƚĞĞĚƵĐĂƟŽŶĂůƉƌŽŐƌĂŵƐƚŽďƌĞĂŬŶĞŐĂƟǀĞƐƚĞƌĞŽƚLJƉĞƐ • ^ƚƌĞŶŐƚŚĞŶĐŝǀŝůƐŽĐŝĞƚLJƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐƚŽƐƵƉƉŽƌƚǁŽŵĞŶ͛ƐǁŽƌŬͲůŝĨĞ ^ŽƵƌĐĞ͗^ƚ͘>ŽƵŝƐ&ĞĚ ďĂůĂŶĐĞ “Over the last two and a half years, I have consistently promoted the dynamic engagement of women. KǀĞƌƚŚŝƐƟŵĞ͕ƐŽŵĞϭŵŝůůŝŽŶǁŽŵĞŶŚĂǀĞŶĞǁůLJĞŶƚĞƌĞĚƚŚĞůĂďŽƌŵĂƌŬĞƚ͕ǁŚŝůĞƚŚĞŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨ ĨĞŵĂůĞĐŽƌƉŽƌĂƚĞďŽĂƌĚŵĞŵďĞƌƐŚĂƐĂůƐŽŝŶĐƌĞĂƐĞĚďLJƌŽƵŐŚůLJϯϬƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ͘͟—Prime Minister Shinzo Abe &ŽƌŵŽƌĞŝŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶ͕ƉůĞĂƐĞǀŝƐŝƚƚŚĞDŝŶŝƐƚƌLJŽĨ&ŽƌĞŝŐŶīĂŝƌƐŽĨ:ĂƉĂŶĂƚǁǁǁ͘ŵŽĨĂ͘ŐŽ͘ũƉĂŶĚƐĞĂƌĐŚĨŽƌ͞tt͊͟

economics OBSERVATION DECK whopping 52 weeks of fully paid shared definition to the new parent—along, labor market. Following the lead of the leave, but this policy applies to only those presumably, with a fair dose of guilt. storied stars of the high-tech economy, who work in Virgin Management, the com- This phenomenon has existed for several other firms hoping to lure similar pools pany’s investment and brand-licensing decades in Scandinavia, where new fathers of talent—in America and abroad—could arm. That includes about 140 people based have not been inclined to take leaves— follow suit. Norms could shift, more work- in London and Geneva out of more than even very liberal ones—unless explicitly ers might clamor for similar treatment, and 50,000 working worldwide in the Virgin given incentives to do so. Especially in it would be harder for their organizations empire. (Also, only employees who’ve been fast-paced, high-growth firms, the pres- to refuse them. at the company for more than four years sure to stay on the job can prove too strong qualify for the full-salary benefit; those to resist. Change won’t come quickly, and it won’t who’ve worked for less time will only get be smooth. Few social changes are. But a percentage.) Where new policies are bound to be even if a firm’s executives don’t take a more successful is beyond the confines full year of leave now open to them (most Sadly, many employees who work in of the powerful, workaholic classes. Indeed, of them probably won’t); even if more these types of divisions are also the ones the employees who most need generous least likely to take advantage of the policies. plans are those who labor further down That’s because there’s a clash between val- the hierarchy: Netflix’s DVD sorters, for ues and practice: Even if a company under- instance, or Amazon’s warehouse pickers. stands that retaining a diverse, talented workforce means helping high-potential BECAUSE MANY OF THE staff through the pressures of family obli- gations, it faces an inherent contradic- OSTENSIBLY GROUNDBREAKING tion between wanting to give its workers LEAVE BENEFITS ARE EXTREMELY time away and needing them for the proj- GENEROUS, THEY TRANSFER THE ects at hand. Employees feel this tension BURDEN OF DEFINITION TO THE NEW too. Yahoo offers 16 weeks of paid leave PARENT ALONG, PRESUMABLY, WITH for mothers who give birth and $500 in A FAIR DOSE OF GUILT. cash for baby-related purchases, but its CEO, Marissa Mayer, whose responsi- Historically, people hoping to improve women than men take advantage of a pol- bilities cannot easily be tucked away for the leave situation have fought from the chunks of time, recently acknowledged bottom up, using the heft of unions or the icy (they probably will); and even if the that she would be taking virtually no time promise of legislative change. For the most off around the birth of her twins. Mayer part, they’ve failed. (That said, outside the highest-ranking employees return to announced instead that she plans “to United States, many blue-collar workers approach the pregnancy and delivery as I do receive paid leaves around the birth of their desks only days after labor, the sheer did with my son three years ago, taking lim- a child, ranging from 12 weeks of maternity ited time away and working throughout.” leave in India to 14 months shared leave fact that new options exist is important. in Germany.) By contrast, policy changes Because many of the ostensibly ground- that come from top workers at some of the Because the force of their example is there, breaking leave benefits are extremely world’s biggest firms could have a better generous, they transfer the burden of chance of leaving a mark. Perhaps by set- and the attendant argument is simple: If ting the standard so high and so publicly, in other words, plans like those that emerged Netflix, Facebook, and Microsoft can afford this summer may trickle down to a much broader, less privileged slice of the global to lose their most irreplaceable engineers for four months, can’t they give the women in their mailrooms a break too? Q DEBORA L. SPAR (@deboraspar) is a colum- nist for FOREIGN POLIC , the president of Barnard College, and the author, most recently, of Wonder Women: Sex, Power, and the Quest for Perfection. 100 NOV | DEC 2015

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The US-Japan Forum Drafting a New Architecture for the Asia-Pacific Region Top Let: Japanese Ambassador to the US Kenichiro Sasae, Top Right: Admiral Dennis Blair, Bottom Let: Under Secretary of Commerce, International Trade, Stefan Selig, Bottom Middle: From the let: Dr. Paula Harrell, Georgetown University, Dr. Sheila Smith, Council on Foreign Relations, Ambassador Chas Freeman, Meg Lundsager, Wilson Center, and Dr. Kuniko Ashizawa, American University, Bottom Right: From the let: Dr. Paula Harrell, Georgetown University and Dr. Sheila Smith, Council on Foreign Relations On October 7th, Foreign Policy convened key stakeholders in the US-Japan relationship, including Admiral Dennis Blair and Under Secretary of Commerce, International Affairs, Stefan Selig, for a discussion on the future of the US-Japanese relationship—and its place as the centerpiece of the Obama Administration’s pivot to Asia. Audience polling, Q&A’s, and questions sourced from Twitter helped make this Social Media Salon a success. The US-Japan Forum was generously underwritten by the Embassy of Japan

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the xer interview by JULIA STEERS • photographs by ASIM RAFIQUI Kigali, Rwanda Alex Ngarambe on where to eat posho, hear folk music, and feel Rwanda’s tragic history. WHERE TO FIND AN TWO DECADES AGO, the Rwandan capital TOURIST MUST SEES of Kigali was a primary battleground in a ARCHITECTURAL GEM genocide that claimed, by some estimates, The KIGALI GENOCIDE 1 million lives in 100 days. Today, the city MEMORIAL includes The KIGALI CON stands as evidence of Rwandan resilience. a garden, a wall of VENTION CENTRE is Although the Parliament building remains victims’ names, and scheduled to open pockmarked with bullet holes and grenade a burial site (in fact, in March 2016, but shrapnel, it now houses one of Africa’s most some 250,000 vic- it’s already the most stable (if controversial) governments. Just tims are buried in notable structure in a few miles away in the city center, young mass graves here). the city. Half-built, techies flock to co-working spaces where Built by British the metallic egg- start-ups are helping to grow a digital econ- NGO Aegis Trust, it shaped structure omy. And a construction boom ensures opened in 2004 and and the adjacent the ubiquity of cranes on Kigali’s pristine documents—with convention-center boulevards. (Able-bodied citizens ages 18 photographs, vid- complex will house and 65 are legally required to participate eos, news clippings, a five-star hotel in monthly street cleanups—building on and oral histories— with nearly 300 umunsi w’umuganda, a tradition of commu- some of the grav- rooms, four restau- nity contribution.) Moreover, violent crime est atrocities of the rants, an office park, is rare; according to the U.S. State Depart- genocide. Be pre- shops, and confer- ment, the biggest threats to foreign visitors pared: You’ll find ence halls (one of are pickpocketing and other petty thefts. graphic video tes- which will fit more timonies of babies than 2,000 people). For 31-year-old fixer Alex Ngarambe, Kigali being hacked to The government is best defined by its vast multiculturalism. death and over 100 hopes it will boost Like so many Rwandans of his generation, powerful video the city’s status as Ngarambe grew up in exile, in Kampala, accounts from sur- a center of eco- Uganda, which—along with Burundi, the vivors, rescuers, nomic development Democratic Republic of the Congo, and and perpetrators. and investment. Tanzania—absorbed a large number of The NTARAMA Locals are proud of Rwanda’s refugees. Hundreds of thousands CHURCH, about an how the new land- of Rwandans have since returned, fueling a hour’s drive from mark makes the melting pot of East African influences in fash- Kigali, is another city look. ion, art, and cuisine. As Ngarambe points out, genocide memorial umunyijye, or mashed banana, is originally that’s really stuck 114 NOV | DEC 2015 from Uganda but is now ubiquitous in Kigali, with me. Inside the and isombe, a Congolese cassava-leaf stew, is building is where one of Rwanda’s most popular side dishes. more than 5,000 people hid and Recently, Ngarambe, a business corre- were killed. spondent for the East African when not fix- Everything—their ing for regional newspapers and Voice of skulls, their bones— America, showed FOREIGN POLICY why is still there. It Kigali deserves to be more than a pit stop touched me and for travelers heading to the countryside’s scared me. famous gorilla treks. KIGALI MEMORIAL CENTRE: KG 14 AVE., GISOZI NTARAMA GENOCIDE MEMORIAL: BUGESERA

OBSERVATION DECK WHERE TO EAVESDROP better, and the offi- LOGISTICS cials seem to feel Almost all top that the city’s only CLOSING TIME government offi- five-star hotel is cials have their where they should There are no closing lunches in the nic- have a drink. At the times for clubs and est hotels—namely Serena, I recently bars, so at 7 a.m., the SERENA HOTEL saw professor Silas you can still find (pictured below) Lwakabamba, who people coming out and HÔTEL DES MILLE was, until this sum- of them. COLLINES. These mer, the minister of days, they pre- education. DINNERTIME fer the Serena to the Mille Collines, SERENA HOTEL: There’s not a big which is well known KN 3 AVE. culture where fami- for housing more HÔTEL DES MILLE lies go out to eat. than 1,000 refugees COLLINES: If you do, go during the geno- 2 KN AVE. between 8 p.m. cide. But it is dated. and 9 p.m. Restau- The Serena is big- WHERE TO SEE AND rants mostly close ger, the service is BE SEEN MAGDA CAFE around 10:30 p.m. WHERE TO FIND WHERE TO EAT MURI has a slick, modern SPENDING ambience and quick LIVE MUSIC A few SANGA, known locally service, which is The typical young, times a month, the as Mama Jack- rare in Rwanda. The middle-class per- ie’s, and CAMELLIA crowd there is a bit son would spend WOODLAND HOTEL both have a good corporate, so in the an average of posho—or ugali—a evening you’ll find 30,000 RwF per has live music, usu- dense, polenta-like bankers and insur- night [about $41], ally Isango, a cover dish you eat with ance guys—that’s including dinner band for Orches- your hands. Mama where they take and drinks. tre Impala, one of Jackie’s makes it their dates because If you go to high- the country’s most the Ugandan and it’s trendy to be end places, expect famous bands Kenyan way, with spotted there. For to spend closer from the ’70s and corn flour. Camel- food, it’s primarily to 50,000 RwF ’80s. Four of that lia makes it with Westernized, which [about $68]. group’s eight mem- cassava flour, the Rwandans love. bers were killed Rwandan way. Peo- The burger and THE WAITING GAME during the geno- ple here really care chips, as well as the cide, leaving about posho. rice dishes, are We are known Isango—and many the most popular. for slow service. others—to mimic MURISANGA: It’s also known for Rwanda hasn’t had the beloved style its good espresso. a private sector in of Orchestre RN 15 IN REMERA PRESTER BUILDING, which competition Impala today. PLOT NO. 922, and effort must win CAMELLIA TEA HOUSE: BLVD. DE clients. You could INTWARI ROAD L’UMUGANDA easily wait for at KN 4 AVE. least an hour before getting food. While FP (ISSN 0015-7228) November/December 2015, issue number 215. Rwandans won’t Published six times each year, in January, March, May, July, September, really complain and November, by The FP Group, a division of Graham Holdings Com- about it, there was pany, at 11 Dupont Circle NW, Suite 600, Washington, D.C. 20036. a government Subscriptions: U.S., $59.99 per year; Canada and other countries, initiative to better $59.99. Periodicals Postage Paid in Washington, D.C., and at addi- train hotel, restau- tional mailing oices. POSTMASTER: Send U.S. address changes to: FP, rant, and bar P.O. Box 283, Congers, NY 10920-0283. Return undeliverable Cana- owners and dian addresses to: P.O. Box 503, RPO West Beaver Creek, Richmond employees. But so Hill, ON L4B 4R6. Printed in the USA. far, I haven’t seen a big difference. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 115

the futurist by JAKE SCOBEY THAL _ Ferdinand Foch French military In his 1994 post- commander Ferdi- humous book, nand Foch decried Prior to South Beyond Peace, the signing of the Sudan’s indepen- former U.S. Presi- Treaty of Versailles, dence in 2011, Maj. dent Richard Nixon the accord that Gen. Scott Gration, warned that post- ended World U.S. special envoy Soviet Russia War I, reportedly to Sudan, told Time, “remains vulnerable proclaiming: “This “This place could to extreme national- is not a peace treaty. go down in flames ists and reactionar- It is an armistice ies intent for 20 years.” tomorrow. The on reversing probability of fail- free-market and democratic ure is great.” reforms.” Speaking about the 1990 negotiations that would lead to the end of apartheid, historian George Fredrickson pre- dicted that if South Africa’s leaders agreed to full democracy, a “racial civil war [would be] virtually inevitable.” BU LL’S EYE SO CLOSE! In 1997, economist The U.S. Joint In August 1953, RIGHTISH Milton Friedman Chiefs of Staff cau- weeks after the HALF RIGHT foresaw that tioned in a 1947 Korean armistice MOSTLY WRONG a common cur- memorandum that was signed, Henri WAY OFF rency in Europe the partition of Pal- Navarre, French would trans- estine would allow commander form “divergent the Soviet Union to in chief in Indo- shocks that could gain influence in china, warned that have been read- the region and jeop- the détente might ily accommo- ardize the United open the door for States’ access to oil. direct Chinese dated by exchange intervention in rate changes into Vietnam. divisive political issues.” IN THE WAKE of the nuclear agreement with Iran, U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham proclaimed that President Barack Obama had “created PHOTOS VIA WIKIMEDIA COMMONS a possible death sentence for Israel” and that the accord is “the most dangerous, irresponsible step I’ve ever seen in the history of watching the Mideast.” While his remarks could be interpreted simply as partisan political jockeying, they could also be seen as part and parcel of a more sinister brand of statecraft: doom-and-gloom forecasting. Whether it’s the weakness of a newly minted euro or the future of an independent South Sudan, negotiators, generals, politicians, and analysts aren’t afraid of taking stabs at predicting the future even as the ink dries, with varying degrees of success. 116 NOV | DEC 2015 Illustrations by ELIAS STEIN

Addressing the critical issues facing Asia in the 21st century On November 17, we release our annual Survey of the Afghan People, Afghanistan’s broadest and longest-running public opinion poll. After the first full year of Afghanistan’s National Unity Government under President Ashraf Ghani, 9,586 Afghans from all 34 provinces tell us what they think about corruption, security, the economy, women’s rights, the Taliban. For over a decade our surveys in Afghanistan have served as a powerful resource for decision makers and an unmatched barometer of Afghan opinions over time. AFGHANISTAN IN 2015: A Survey of the Afghan People READ IT HERE: asiafoundation.org