National Geographic Interactive Issue: 01/04/2020

Chantel Comardelle and her family sit for a portrait in her grand- parents’ home on Isle de Jean Charles. Their ancestors arrived here in the 1820s, but now the rising Gulf of Mex- ico is swallowing the island. Chantel (seated at table) helps resi- dents resettle on the mainland. Their feelings are difficult to explain, she says. “I can’t just say, you know, ‘the pain of losing a loved one.’ This sort of losing a land and the things that are sur- rounded by the land is so different than that.”



E A RT H DAY 2 070 Phoenix, U.S. will have a climate like BY K AYA L E E B E R N E , ALEJANDRA BORUNDA, RILEY D. CHAMPINE, A ND JA S O N T R EAT IT’S NOT CLEAR WHETHER WE 4.0 (7.2) Difference in global Worst-case WILL REIN IN OUR CARBON 3.0 (5.4) baseline temperature scenario EMISSIONS. IT’S MUCH CLEARER 2.0 (3.6) from preindustrial average (RCP 8.5) WHAT THE CLIMATE WILL BE LIKE (1861–1900) IF WE DON’T: NOT GOOD. in degrees Celsius (˚F) Best-case scenario 1.0 (1.8) (RCP 2.6) 0.0 PROJECTED 2070 1970 NAT I ON A L GEO GRA PH I C PAGE 58 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identifies future climate scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs), ranging from worst-case scenario, RCP 8.5, to best, RCP 2.6. Data here use RCP 8.5 unless otherwise noted.

Want to see what your city will be like in 2070? Visit natgeo.com/ earthday. Chowki Jamali, Hanoi, Vietnam, Pakistan will have a climate Idukki, like nowhere on India Earth today. Manila, Philippines TOMORROW’S CLIMATE, TODAY Location of city 2070 climate analog This city in 2070 Earth has warmed about one degree Celsius (1.8°F) will have a climate since the industrial revolution. In a worst-case scenario like this place today in which our carbon emissions continue to rise, the warming could exceed three degrees Celsius (5.4°F) Sister cities of the future by 2070. That global average conceals dramatic local increases in extreme heat, precipitation, and drought. The lines on this map, based on worst-case What climate might confront the world’s cities in 2070? projections created by climate scientist Matt For some, it could be unlike any found on Earth today. Fitzpatrick, connect cities today to their 2070 analogs—the places, if any, where their 2070 The nonprofit National Geographic Society, working to conserve conditions exist already. Earth’s resources, helped fund this project. SOURCES: MATT FITZPATRICK; GEERT JAN VAN OLDENBORGH; KNMI CLIMATE EXPLORER

PHOENIX, UNITED STATES, WILL HAVE A CLIMATE LIKE TODAY’S BALOCHISTAN, PAKISTAN. Phoenix today Phoenix in 2070 Summer Winter Summer Winter 2 da 103.7˚F (high) 111.9˚F 75.3˚ 45.7˚ AVERAGE 82˚ 2.8 68˚ TEMPERATURE 73.2˚ (low) 39.8˚ AVERAGE RAINFALL 2.9 2.2 in. 2.3 HEAT WILL GET DEADLY By 2070, the climate in Phoenix, Arizona, already burning hot, will feel like today’s Chowki Jamali in Pakistan’s Balochistan Province, a high-desert region hit hard by drought and sky-high temperatures. Farmers there already schedule working hours for brief stretches of bearable temperatures in the early morning (which stand to shrink even further by 2070). Phoenix has shattered 34 daily heat records during the past decade; heat stress in the city hits low-income neighborhoods harder than wealthy ones, which often have more trees and cooling strategies to mitigate sweltering tem- peratures. By 2070 the annual number of days over 95°F in Phoenix is predicted to top 182— about half the year. But it’s not just obviously hot places that will experience an increase in deadly heat: Today’s temperate cities, where cooling infrastructure doesn’t exist or is pro- hibitively expensive, will struggle mightily to keep their populations cool and safe. This city in 2070 will have a climate like SAN JOSÉ, PARAUAPEBAS, COSTA RICA BRAZIL PARIS, MONTEFIASCONE, FRANCE ITALY DAR ES SALAAM, RAYONG, TANZANIA THAILAND

TRYING TO COOL OFF Unequal Asia 1,500 India As heat, population, and incomes In 2016 only 4 percent of rise, the International Energy Agency households in India had air- projects that by 2050 the number of conditioning, compared with air-conditioners, fans, and dehumidifi- about 85 percent in Singapore, ers in residential buildings worldwide which is wealthier. will double, to over eight billion. 1,000 Energy use for cooling A vicious cycle by country/region Climate change boosts the demand for cooling. Most cooling requires burning fossil fuels, which helps increase climate change. in billions of kilowatt hours 500 Per capita energy 2,000 for cooling 1,000 in kilowatt hours 100 2050 2016 0 Japan Mexico Brazil European Indonesia Middle United China Rest of South States world Union East Korea CHRISTINA SHINTANI, NGM STAFF. SOURCES: CLIMATE IMPACT LAB; INTERNATIONAL T H E W O R L D I N 2 0 7 0 61 ENERGY AGENCY; SOLOMON HSIANG AND OTHERS, SCIENCE, JUNE 30, 2017

MANILA, PHILIPPINES, S T R E S S E D F O R WAT E R WILL HAVE A CLIMATE LIKE The global population is expected to TODAY’S KERALA, INDIA. reach 10.5 billion in the next 50 years. The demand for water will diminish the world’s freshwater systems, further escalating competition, conflict, and migration. NORTH AMERICA Manila today Manila in 2070 Summer Winter Summer Winter UNITED STATES will have a climate like 92˚F (high) 86˚ AVERAGE 96.6˚F 90.5˚ San Diego TEMPERATURE 75.7˚ 76.2˚ (low) 71.1˚ 80.7˚ MEXICO Artemisa, Cuba AVERAGE 17.8 RAINFALL 6.6 in. 3.5 6.1 RISING WATER ANXIETY Water stress, 2040 SOUTH AMERICA In 50 years the climate profile of Manila will This index, constructed by resemble that of present-day Idukki, in Kerala, the World Resources Insti- Rio de India, where monsoon flooding in 2018 was tute, measures demand for Janeiro, responsible for more than 400 deaths and the water against the available Brazil displacement of millions. Today Manila is one supply of water. of the fastest growing metropolitan areas on Earth, and one of the wettest. Typhoon Ketsana Water stress doubles or in 2009 covered Manila in almost 18 inches more from 2020 to 2040 of rain in a single day—over a month’s worth High water stress in only 12 hours. More than 200 people died. As the climate changes, wet places such as Low water stress the tropics of Southeast Asia are likely to get Arid with low water use much wetter. A hotter atmosphere holds more No data water, which means more rain falling more intensely during the rainy season. At the same MORE FLOODING time it aggravates drought, including outside of the tropics: Hotter air sucks more water out What once were 100-year of plants and soil, drying the land. Too little floods—with only a one percent water in vast swaths of the planet, too much in chance of occurring in a given others—that’s how climate change is rewriting year—will become more frequent, the story of water on Earth. thanks to amplified precipitation. The large population centers of Asia and Africa are most at risk. This city in 2070 will have a climate like 2070 (projected) SAN DIEGO, TAROUDANT, 52.3 million UNITED STATES MOROCCO 1970 Number of RIO DE JANEIRO, ARTEMISA, 5.6 million people exposed to BRAZIL CUBA 100-year floods CHENNAI, AD DARB, Using constant 2005 INDIA SAUDI ARABIA population figures PROJECTED 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070

Changing zones Food shortages Tropical zones are expanding In India the aquifers feeding 20 miles a decade, pushing the Ganges River are being other climates poleward; the depleted faster than anywhere populous Mediterranean region else in the world. Farmers could get much drier. depend on this water source. ASIA EUROPE Taroudant, IRAN CHINA Morocco PAK. SAUDI AFRICA ARABIA INDIA Manila, Philippines Ad Darb Chennai AUSTRALIA Idukki, Kerala Both drier and wetter For every 1°C rise in tempera- ture, the air holds 7 percent more water. This dries Earth’s surface and makes rainfall, including storms and cyclones, less frequent but more intense, escalating the risk of flooding. B U T L E S S WAT E R Historical and projected groundwater withdrawals Agriculture accounts for more than two-thirds of groundwater in cubic miles per year* extraction worldwide. Entire ecosystems become jeopardized as water is increasingly pumped from aquifers that can’t be recharged fast enough. These seven countries *Projections using RCP 6.0 account for 74% of global groundwater withdrawals. NAT CASE, INCASE, LLC. SOURCES: AQUEDUCT WATER RISK ATLAS, WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE; YUKIKO HIRABAYASHI, SHIBAURA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY; YOSHIHIDE WADA AND MARC FP BIERKENS, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, OCTOBER 2, 2014

HANOI, VIETNAM, P O O R MO R E L I K E LY TO S U F F E R WILL HAVE A CLIMATE LIKE NOWHERE ON EARTH. Many of the poorest cities and countries will experience the worst effects of climate change, without the resources to adapt. Pushed over the edge by climate-related natural disasters, environmental stresses, and disease, millions more people may slide into poverty. Hanoi today Hanoi in 2070 NORTH AMERICA Summer Winter Summer Winter New York Chicago AVERAGE 75.7˚ UNITED STATES TEMPERATURE 63.7˚ 90.7˚F (high) 97.9˚F Los Angeles 69.6˚ 84.3˚ MEXICO 78˚(low) Mexico City 57.7˚ 34.8 in. AVERAGE 30.0 RAINFALL 2.6 2.6 DAMAGE WILL BE UNEQUAL Climate change Bogotá vulnerability, 2020 COLOMBIA This index assesses the Manaus threat of climate change There are some cities, such as Hanoi, where by measuring physical PERU BRAZIL climates will enter uncharted territory by 2070. impacts and a country’s Lima It’s not just that Hanoi will get hotter—which ability to adapt to them. SOUTH it will, with average summer temperatures AMERICA hovering close to a soupy 100°F. And it’s not Highest vulnerability just that precipitation patterns will change as São rainfall intensifies during the monsoon and City with population Paulo other stormy periods. Some hazards can be over 7 million traced to climate change, such as dangerous Rio de heat stress or flooding from extreme rains Lowest vulnerability Janeiro and sea-level rise. But millions living in cities worldwide will be increasingly vulnerable to No data Buenos Aires less obvious problems. The risk of disease will ARGENTINA climb as mosquito ranges expand. Conflicts City with unprecedented will be more likely as populations are forced climate by 2070 to move. Infrastructure, including housing, roads, and bridges, will crumble faster. And EXTREME L A RG E C I TI E S AT R I S K as we barrel into a future of unprecedented climates, it’s almost certain that yet-to-be- Verisk Maplecroft, a research firm, eval- identified vulnerabilities will emerge to put uated 1,868 cities for climate change more stress on this fragile planet. vulnerability. Contributing factors include exposure to climate extremes, Bogotá, access to resources, reliance on agricul- Colombia ture, and disaster response capacity. HIGH Vulnerability to Lima, Peru climate change This city in 2070 will have a climate like MEDIUM Among cities with Mexico City, Mexico population over 7 million U.S. MANAUS, NOWHERE ON BRAZIL EARTH TODAY 30 million Buenos Aires, 20 million Argentina LUXOR, NOWHERE ON 10 million EGYPT EARTH TODAY Moscow, Russia DOHA, NOWHERE ON QATAR EARTH TODAY LOW Paris, France Rio de Janeiro, London, U.K. Brazil Chicago São Paulo, Brazil Los Angeles South New York America Europe North America

Safe havens Diseases will spread The most resilient cities are Before 1970, severe mosquito- in countries that have less borne dengue epidemics had extreme climates and greater occurred in only nine coun- capacity to adapt, such as the tries. The disease is found in U.K. and the Netherlands. over 125 countries today. RUSSIA U.K. Moscow London EUROPE Paris ASIA FRANCE Istanbul Beijing Seoul, South Korea TURKEY Baghdad, Tehran CHINA Xi’an Tokyo Iraq IRAN Chengdu JAPAN Lahore Cairo Shanghai EGYPT Luxor PAK. Delhi Kolkata SUDAN Riyadh INDIA SAUDI Doha, Hong Kong ARABIA Qatar Hanoi AFRICA Karachi VIETNAM Manila, Philippines Mumbai Bangkok, Bengaluru Thailand NIGERIA Ho Chi Minh City Lagos Kuala MALAYSIA Lumpur D.R. Out of this world Jakarta CONGO INDONESIA There are 67 cities that have Kinshasa no future analog. Their climate in 2070 is projected Luanda to be unprecedented—unlike ANGOLA any place on Earth today. AUSTRALIA Kinshasa, Manila, Philippines D.R. Congo Low incomes, big danger Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, Indonesia Lagos, Malaysia Nigeria Richer cities can absorb Baghdad, Iraq growing populations more Bangkok, easily than poorer ones, Thailand Ho Chi Minh City, which are less able to cope Vietnam with demands on infrastruc- Istanbul, Turkey ture and services. Riyadh, Bengaluru Karachi, Luanda, Tehran, Iran Saudi Arabia Mumbai Pakistan Angola Seoul, S. Korea Foshan Hong Kong Shanghai Ahmadabad Chennai Guangzhou Hyderabad Wuhan Chengdu Delhi Lahore, Nanjing Shenzhen Pakistan Tianjin Cairo, Dongguan Surat Dhaka, Egypt Suzhou Xi'an Kolkata Bangladesh Nagoya Shenyang Chongqing Africa’s challenge Osaka Hangzhou India Africa has some of the Tokyo Beijing fastest growing cities in the world; two-thirds of Japan China them are facing extreme risk from climate change. Asia Africa SOURCE: VERISK MAPLECROFT T H E W O R L D I N 2 0 7 0 65