Foreign Policy - #169 November-December 2008

Expert Sitings Chris Anderson is the editor in chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. He blogs at thelongtail.com. paul.kedrosky.com An investor, columnist, and entrepreneur who is plugged into the California start-up scene, Kedrosky’s Infectious Greed blog is my expert guide to the financial crisis. Unlike many finance writers, Kedrosky avoids confusing jargon and keeps the tone light—even as the news gets increasingly heavy. LEFT: ILLUSTRATION BY KEN ORVIDAS FOR FP; RIGHT: PHOTO COURTESY OF CHRIS ANDERSON Text for the Cure sethgodin.typepad.com Perhaps the hardest part of fighting contagious dis- Complete with a shaved head, Seth Godin is the guru of eases is simply getting patients to take their meds. modern marketing. With his Delphic insights on advertising, For tuberculosis, which kills nearly 1.6 million people a business, and human psychology, this prolific blogger and year, the drug regimen lasts at least six months and often author is my daily dose of deep thought. carries unpleasant side effects. Patients who skip doses risk developing drug-resistant tb, which is costly to treat techdirt.com and prone to dangerous outbreaks. A team of students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (mit), howev- Techdirt is not your ordinary news Web site. It’s more like a er, has devised a novel solution: bribe patients with cell- swarm of smart problem-solvers who analyze “cases” on phone minutes. demand—everything from how to find cheap gas on your cellphone to how to make Twitter useful. It’s also a great blog The students’ big idea, which has been put to the test if you’re interested in online privacy, digital rights manage- in Nicaragua, rests on a new technology called paper ment, and doing business in the information age. microfluidics. Rather than visiting a clinic every day or receiving constant reminders at home, patients are given a blog.wired.com/defense device that spits out a small strip of paper, coated with chemicals, every 24 hours. As with a home pregnancy test, Deep defense knowledge, a fiercely independent (but fair patients urinate on the strip, which detects drug compliance. and nonpartisan) voice, and real reporting: That’s Danger Instead of a plus or minus sign, the system reveals a numer- Room, the Wired.com military technology blog. Led by Noah ical code that the patients then send via text message to a Shachtman, one of the best defense writers working today, central server. (To ward off potential cheaters, there is a new this would be at the top of my reading list even if it weren’t code every day.) Those whose codes register a high enough from my sister company. compliance rate each month earn free cellphone minutes, a powerful incentive that’s inexpensive to implement. have people living with tuberculosis happy to have their own mobility and independence.” For Jose Gomez-Marquez, program director of mit’s Innovations in International Health initiative, the project’s Next up for the mit team is attempting to export the genius is its combination of psychology and economics. program elsewhere. They are already laying the ground- “We knew that it couldn’t just be a technological approach work for bringing the technology to Ethiopia and have to the problem,” he says. “It had to be a combination of launched a clinical trial in Pakistan. Urdu’s complex behavior modification with the aid of technology.” So alphabet is proving to be a logistical challenge, but free far, trial runs of the project in Nicaragua have been a cellphone minutes? It’s an idea that needs little translation. hit—so much so that tb patients outside the study are ask- —Patrick Fitzgerald ing to take part, too. Blake Hounshell is Web editor of ForeignPolicy.com. Until the special strips of paper can be mass-produced, Elizabeth Dickinson is assistant editor at Foreign Policy. the scope of the project remains limited. But Miguel Patrick Fitzgerald is a freelance journalist in California. Orozco, a Nicaraguan health researcher who is assisting the program, envisions the venture catching on. “They can do [the treatment] from their homes,” Orozco says. “You N ov e m b e r | D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 8 91

Answers to the FP Quiz academia’s globalized marketplace, developing countries may need to be even more generous to avoid brain drain to richer countries. (From page 30) 5) B, Poland. When Georgia withdrew nearly 2,000 troops from Iraq in August, 1) B, 16 percent. In the 2007–08 basketball season, about 1 in 6 NBA players Poland’s 800 troops became the third-largest contingent there, operating was born outside the United States, up from 7 percent just 10 years ago. But alongside about 140,000 U.S. soldiers and 4,000 British troops. South Korea is in a borderless world of sport, that figure is hardly the highest. In Major No. 4 with approximately 500 soldiers stationed in theater. Meanwhile, Iraq League Baseball, nearly 30 percent of players were born outside the United has 200,000 of its own troops and 300,000 provincial police officers. States in recent seasons. Meanwhile, in English football’s Premier League, more than 50 percent of players were born outside Britain. 6) A, 0. Since its establishment 10 years ago, the International Criminal Court has issued 12 arrest warrants for people accused of genocide, war 2) A, Canada. Facebook is one of the world’s fastest-growing social networking crimes, and crimes against humanity. But as of September 2008, no one sites, with more than 100 million members worldwide. It is perhaps most popu- has ever been put on trial. Thomas Lubanga, a Congolese warlord, was to lar in Canada, where 29 percent of the population maintains a member profile, have gone on trial June 23 for recruiting child soldiers. But on June 13, the according to a September tally. The United States is No. 13 in the ranking, with court decided to halt proceedings, ruling that the prosecution had failed to 10.5 percent, but more Americans are on the network than any other nationality— disclose exculpatory evidence. 32 million, nearly equal to Canada’s entire population. 7) C, Japan. As of July 2008, foreign countries owned $2.68 trillion in U.S. 3) A, China. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, China had more federal debt, just over a quarter of the U.S. government’s $9.5 trillion in total journalists in jail in 2007 than any other country—its ninth consecutive year arrears. Japan holds the most, with $593 billion in U.S. Treasury securities— atop the list, with 29 reporters and editors behind bars. Last year, 18 of those essentially IOUs from the U.S. federal government. China is next in line, with jailed in China were online journalists, with one arrest made possible through $519 billion in securities. U.S. debt has boomed since September 2000, information provided by Yahoo!. Of the 23 other countries with jailed journalists, increasing 73 percent—more than $4 trillion—and the amount of that debt Cuba came in second, with 24 imprisoned reporters, and Eritrea placed third, held by foreign governments has nearly tripled. with 14 jailed members of the media. 8) A, Avenue Princesse Grace, Monaco. On the palm-lined street named after 4) B, India. It pays to be a professor in India. An Indian academic can expect Grace Kelly, apartments can sell for nearly $18,000 per square foot, according to make nearly 9 times the country’s per capita GDP, according to a recent to a recent survey by Wealth Bulletin. Runner-up Severn Road in Hong Kong Boston College study of academic salaries in 16 countries and territories. By comes in comparatively cheap at $11,200 per square foot, while New York’s comparison, faculty salaries in countries such as Germany, Japan, and the third-ranked Fifth Avenue is a downright bargain at $7,500 per square foot. United States are just 1.5 to 2 times the national average. Nevertheless, given 92 F o r e i g n P o l i c y

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SIPA-Sciences Po Masters in International Affairs Dual Degree Program Study in Paris and New York and obtain Masters Degrees from both Sciences Po Paris and the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) For more information: sipa.columbia.edu/academics/gppn The Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies Teachers’ Workshop June 7-12, 2009, in Basin Harbor, Vermont The Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies promotes excellence in the teaching of strategic studies at the undergraduate, graduate, and professional levels. This workshop is designed to help prepare faculty who are new to the national security or strategic studies field. (All expenses are paid by the Merrill Center.) Topics will include: Teaching an introductory course in strategic studies; syllabus construction; case teaching; use of film in the classroom; gaming and simulations; and staff rides. Past presenters have included: Eliot Cohen, Thomas Keaney, and Mary Habeck (SAIS); Peter Feaver (Duke University); Brian Linn (Texas A&M University); and Stephen Rosen (Harvard University). Eligibility: All faculty or prospective faculty members interested in teaching courses in the national security field are eligible to apply. Application procedure: Submit cover letter, curriculum vitae, and a description of current and prospective teaching interests to the Merrill Center Administrator, Christine Kunkel, at [email protected] or mail to 1619 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036. Applications must be postmarked by January 15, 2009. For more information: Visit the Merrill Center at www.saismerrillcenter.org or call 202-663-5772.

[ ]Missing Links Continued from page 96 reckless, ideas are sought and celebrated. This approach not only brought us the war in Iraq Another lesson of 9/11 is that the United but also the Guantánamo Bay prison, the ero- States will need all the help it can get from other sion of civil liberties, disdain for the Geneva countries to manage the crisis. Although both Conventions, and the belittling of mechanisms 9/11 and the crash of the subprime mortgage normally used to control government spending market took place on American soil, their inter- as unacceptable bureaucratic nuisances. And national ramifications are enormous. And though now, the financial bailout will bring us the American taxpayers will bear the burden of both largest government-owned financial enterprise the bailout and its fallout, the assistance of reg- on the planet, drastic changes in financial reg- ulatory authorities from Britain to China will ulations, and a banking system that will bear be indispensable. In fact, a lesson from 9/11 is little resemblance to what it was just a few that coordination at technical levels may be more months ago. important than the rhetorical statements of heads of state. After 9/11, while the U.S. Congress was The search for a new paradigm to replace replacing its cafeteria French fries with “free- pre-crash beliefs and institutions is leading many A bureaucratic monster driven by the same panicked impulses that followed 9/11 may result from this crisis. dom fries” and bashing France for its opposition to conclude that American-style capitalism is to the war in Iraq, the intelligence agencies of the now dead. “The idea of an all-powerful market two countries were collaborating closely and without any rules and any political intervention effectively. The same was true of other intelligence is mad,” said French President Nicolas Sarkozy, services in countries whose leaders were making adding that “Self-regulation is finished. Laissez fiery speeches denouncing U.S. unilateralism. faire is finished.” Henry Paulson, the U.S. Treas- Technical collaboration of government bureau- ury Secretary, agreed: “Raw capitalism is a dead crats—sustained over long periods and outside end.” Certainly, the crash revealed the need for the media glare—will be as important to navi- more effective financial oversight and regula- gating this financial crisis successfully as presi- tions. But their adoption will not mark the end dential summits. The way that central bank of capitalism. Millions of Chinese, Indians, managers in Beijing and Moscow coordinate Brazilians, and others will continue to be more actions with their counterparts in Washington active participants in the global economy than and Frankfurt will be an important determinant ever before. And companies from Seattle to of how we get out of this crisis. Taipei to Lyon will continue to innovate and invest, buy and sell. One further parallel between 9/11 and the financial crisis is that public funds that had Inevitably, the financial crisis will be seen not been available for other important needs as yet another sign that America in decline: “The (healthcare, education, poverty) suddenly mate- U.S. will lose its status as the superpower of the rialize. The gravity of the threat and the need world financial system. . . . The world will never to act quickly and decisively triggers a mind-set be the same again,” the German finance minis- where it becomes acceptable—even desirable— ter told his parliament in late September. Almost to make decisions in which money is no object. the exact same words were uttered after 9/11. But though the world certainly changed, it did This disregard for budget constraints is a so in far fewer ways than the commentators manifestation of another 9/11 lesson: the infat- had predicted. Yes, this financial crisis will deeply uation with “a new paradigm” and the disdain transform the global economy and will have for old ideas and institutions. The conviction deeper and longer-lasting consequences than that a new reality has made previously cher- 9/11. But it neither marks the end of capitalism ished principles and ideas obsolete is dangerous. nor the beginning of America’s demise. It leads to the assumption that all bets are off, old ideas are out, and completely new and Moisés Naím is editor in chief of Foreign Policy. untested concepts are indispensable. Bold, even N ov e m b e r | D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 8 95

[ ]M I S S I N G L I N K S After the Fall What the lessons of 9/11 could teach the world about the financial crisis. By Moisés Naím T he global financial meltdown is as surprising and unprecedented as the 9/11 attacks. Beyond that, the two calamities are very different; the financial crash will undoubtedly have broader consequences, hurting more people in more countries. Yet, 9/11 and its aftermath continue to offer a case study in some pitfalls to avoid when catastrophe hits. Perhaps the most important lesson from 9/11 is Moreover, as in Iraq, where the thorniest prob- that the U.S. reaction to the attacks had more lems surfaced after a successful military takeover, profound consequences than the attacks them- post-bailout management will be critical. Iraq’s selves. Shocks such as 9/11 are bound to nightmare was amplified by mistakes made in the spark—indeed require—substantial govern- strategy, staffing, execution, and control of the mental reactions, but the consequences of those post-invasion efforts. Similarly, the financial res- reactions linger well beyond the initial event. cue could be fatally undermined by mistakes in This lesson will apply to the current crash: The the disbursement of funds or even in the staffing laws, institutions, constraints, and incentives of the agencies in charge of implementing the engendered by the bailout will mold our lives long bailout. One of the legacies of 9/11, for example, after the effects of the subprime mortgage crisis is the Department of Homeland Security, a have dissipated. The danger is that dispropor- bureaucratic behemoth that has become a text- tionate or ill-conceived governmental responses book example of a failed reorganization doomed may only exacerbate problems. by vague congressional directives adopted in haste. A similar bureaucratic monster, driven by Consider the unintended fallout from the the same panicked impulses, may emerge as a invasion of Iraq: an emboldened Iran, the Tal- result of this financial crisis. iban’s resurgence, and the diminished ability of the United States to lead in times of global crisis. Continued on page 95 FOREIGN POLICY (ISSN 0015-7228), November/December 2008, issue number 169. Published bimonthly in January, March, May, July, September, and November by Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive, LLC, a subsidiary of The Washington Post Company, at 1779 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20036-2109. Subscriptions: U.S., $24.95 per year; Canada, $36.95; other countries, $42.95. Periodicals postage paid in Washington, D.C., and at additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Send U.S. address changes to FOREIGN POLICY, P.O. Box 474, Mt. Morris, IL 61054-8499. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to: P.O. Box 503, RPO West Beaver Creek, Richmond Hill, ON L4B 4R6. Printed in the USA. 96 F o r e i g n P o l i c y

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