The civil war between Ethiopia and the Tigray Region

THECIVILWARBETWEEN ETHIOPIAANDTHETIGRAYREGION.

Formonthsnow Ethiopiahasbeeninamiddleofaviolent civilwarwiththeTigrayanpeople(anethnicgroupthatlivesinthe country'sdesert-likeNorth),andtheUnitedNationssaysmore than 500,000 people are currentlyexperiencing famine in that sectionofthecountry. Thequestionisalways,howdidAbiyAhmedthecurrentPresident ofEthiopiagofrom anoblepeaceprizewinnertobeingaccused ofwarcrimesinatimeframeofoneyear? Sotoanswerthatquestionweneedtotakeacloserlookatthe rise ofAbiy,as wellas the fourstages ofEthiopia's recent leadership. Ethiopiaisaverydiversenationwithdistinctregionsandlotsof otherdifferentethnicgroupssuchastheTigray,Amhara,Afars, Oromosandtherestofthem,andthat'sbecauseforcenturies (1270 beginning ofSolomonid Dynasty,directdescendants of KingSolomonandtheQueenofSheba)rightuntilthe1970s, EthiopiawasanEmpireStateruledbyanEmperorandthisEmpire wasbuiltonconqueredethnicgroupsandmanyofthem were treatedas2ndoreven3rdclasscitizens. OneofthoseEthnicNationstakenoverbytheempirewasEritrea, it'sakeypartofthebigstorysopleaserememberthatname.

Eventually,the Ethiopian Empire wasreplaced bya brutal communistmilitarydictatorshipsystem (TheDergorProvisional MilitaryAdministrativeCouncilPMAC)whichon12September 1974overthrew EmperorHaileSelassieI(RasTafariMakonnen) ofthe Amhara tribe during a nationwide mass protestled by mostlyUniversitystudentsandTechBros.

In March 1975 the Derg abolished the monarchy and establishedEthiopiaasaMarxist-Leniniststatewithitselfasthe vanguardpartyinaprovisionalgovernment. The abolition offeudalism increased literacy,nationalization (something like the unityofEthiopia is non-negotiable),and sweepinglandreform includingtheresettlementandvillagization from theEthiopianHighlandsbecamepriority(morelikeRUGA andcattlecoloniesintoday'sNigeria). Col.MengistuMariam becameheadofstateofEthiopiafrom 1977 to 1991 afterexecuting 40 military officers who were opponentmembersofthesameDerg,andduringhistimeas headofstates,helaunchedtheRedTerrorpoliticalrepression campaigntoeliminatepoliticalopponents,journalistswithtensof thousandsimprisonedandexecutedwithouttrial. Ethnicmilitiasaroundthecountrypoppedupinresponseandcivil warragedfordecades.TwoofthestrongestEthnicmilitiawas Eritrean People's Liberation Front(EPLF)and TigrayPeople's LiberationFront(TPLF).

When Mengistu was finally overthrown in 1991 EPLF declaredindependenceforEritrea,leavingtheTPLFasthemost powerfulforce in Ethiopia.TPLF wentahead and formed a coalitionwithotherEthnicpoliticalgroupsinEthiopiawhichgave birthtoanew partycalledtheEthiopianPeople'sRevolutionary DemocraticFront(EPRDF)thatwentontorulethecountryfor morethan30years. Duringthisperiodthecountryopeneduptotheoutsideworld unlikebeforeanditseconomybegantogrow,butitwasn'tquite as open and democratic as mostofthe ethnic groups had envisioned.

ThecoalitionhadeffectivelymadeEthiopiaaone-partyState andbecauseTigrayan'sTPLFdominatedthatcoalition,theyran thecountryeventhoughTigrayanwereaboutonly6percentof thecountry'spopulation. WhileinpowertheTigrayanpoliticalelitesruledwithanironfist, politicalopponentsandactivistsfrom theotherEthnicgroups werethrownintojail,journalism wasrestrictedandelectionswere regularlyriggedbythegovernment. Toaddtoallofthese,awarwasdeclaredbytheTigrayTPLF throughitsdominatedEthiopianArmyagainstEritrea(EPLF)in 1998,aconflictthatlastedfordecades. Justquickly,theTPLFwasaccusedoffavouringTigrayan'swhile inpowerbutevenifthiswasthecase,theregionofTigrayandits peopleremained verypoorexceptforit'spoliticalelites.And eventually,frustrationagainsttheEPRDFcontrolledbytheTPLF began to grow and boilup,this led to a nationwide protest movementthatstartedin2015through2017whichforcedthe thenprimeministerHailemariam Desalegntoresign. The man thegovernmentchoose to replace theoutgoing primeministerwasAbiyAhmedwhowasn'tTigrayanbuttothe TPLFAbiyseemslikeasafechoicebecausehewaspartoftheir EPRDFcoalition,hewasalsoverypopularandtheybelievedhe wasgoing to maintain the statusquo ofthe Tigrayan'sTPLF influenceanddominanceofthecountry.

ButAbiyAhmedhadotherplansinmind,andheimmediately begantoremovecorruptTPLFofficialsfrom power,opposition politicalprisonersgotfreedom and themedia/journalistgot more freedom ofexpression. Abiy wentahead to win the #NoblePeacePrize_2019 \"forhiseffortstoachievepeaceand internationalcooperation,and in particular for his decisive initiativetoresolvetheborderconflictwithneighbouringEritrea.\"

Politicaltension began to rise when Abiy started a new coalitionknownastheProsperityParty,theTPLFwasinvitedto joinbuttheyrefusedandjoinedtheoppositionparty. ThingsseemedtobegoingwellforEthiopiansliketheywere finallymoving awayfrom the years ofauthoritarian rule but conflictsbetweenethnicgroupswereflaringup. AbiyAhmad'sresponsetoallofthesewasbygoingbacktomost ofthemethodsusedbyhispredecessors,andonceagainpolitical opponents were being locked up,journalists were putunder pressure and police were responding brutally to protest movementsbuildingupnationwide. Thencamethe#Covid19pandemic,likemanyothernations Ethiopiawentonalockdownanditselectionswerepostponed butthe opposition TPLF frontaccused Abiy of using the pandemicasanexcusefornotwantingtoholdtheelection. The Tigrayan's TPLF wentone step furtherand defiled the government'sorderbyholding theirelection in itsregion the following month,whatfollowed wasrumoursofthe Ethiopian governmentmobilisingitsmilitary. AndintheearlyhoursofNovember4th,whiletherestoftheworld waswatchingtheUSelections,Abiyissuedastatementsaying thattheTigrayan'shadattackedamilitarybaseandthatthey'llbe forcedtorespondwithmilitaryaction.

The two sides were now atwar,although the Ethiopian governmentrefusedtorefertothesituationasawarandinthe earlystages,theyreferredtoitasa\"Law andOrderRestoration Operation\"againstpoliticianswhohaddefiledthegovernment's orderandneededtobebroughtintofaceJustice. Abiyalsosaidthattheoperationwillbeoverinafew weeksand thatitwasgoingtobeentirelybloodless,butafterawhile,it becameclearthatbothstatementsweren'ttrue. Inthefirstcoupleofmonths,nooneoutsideofEthiopiahadmuch ofanideaaboutwhatwasgoingonbecausethewarwasfought indarkness,Internetaccesswasshutdownandjournalistsgot restrictionsonwhatandwhatnottoreportabout. Butaftera while,detailsstarted coming outwith morethan 60,000 Tigrayan's fleeing across the borders to neighbouring Sudanandmorethantwomillionbeinginternallydisplacedwithin theTigrayregion. ThencamestoriesoftheEthiopianmilitarynotjustfighting againsttheTigraymilitiasbutofmassacresofciviliansboth adults and children and widespread sexualviolence against women. Theywerealso newsofwidespread hungeracrossTigraya regionthat'salreadyvulnerabletofoodshortageduetoitsdesert- likesoilwhichcanhardlybecultivatedandforthisreasonbasic fooditemsarealwaysbroughtinfrom otherStates.

And on the landscape thatis atleastcultivatable,many farmershavebeenpreventedfrom plantingcropsandnotonly that but the Ethiopian government has been accused of destroyingsupplies,cuttingoffregionscontrolledbyTigrayan's forcesandtheuseofstarvationasaweaponofwarfareagainst morethan5millionpeoplewhoaresolelyreliableonUNaid. TheUnitedNationssaysallsidesoftheconflicthavebeen carrying outatrocities butthatthe vastmajority have been perpetratedbytheEthiopianmilitaryanditsallies,andthatbrings ustoakeypointthattheEthiopianmilitaryhasn'tbeenacting alone. AbiyalliedwiththeEritreamilitarytoattacktheTigraypeople, something the governmentdenied atfirst.Eritrea is led by PresidentIsaiasAfwerkiwhoissaidtobeadictator,hesmirksat questionsaboutdemocracy,theruleoflaw andhumanrights violations. Ifyouwonderingwhyanationwouldwanttogetinvolvedin anothernation'scivilwar,wellrememberthatwhenEthiopiawent towarwithEritreaitwastheTigrayan'swhowereinchargeofthe countryandEritreanshavealwayswantedanopportunitytomake Tigrayan'spayforthatgenocide.Andnotonlythat,Eritreawho shares a borderwith Tigraysees them as a threatto their NationalSecurity.

Internationallytherehasbeenahugeamountofpressureon Abiyforaceasefireandatsomepoint,itseemedliketheEritrean militarybegan to pulloutand the Ethiopian governmentdid recentlyannounceacease-fire,however,itwasrejectedbythe Tigrayan's TPLF who said they'llcontinue fighting untilall Ethiopian/Eritreanmilitarypullsoutoftheirregion. Expertsfearthatfighting willcontinue to spread and millions moreareatriskofdyingbecauseofstarvationifregionsinTigray continuestobecutofffrom foodsuppliesandessentialservices, buttheEthiopiangovernmentcontinuestodenythisishappening eventhoughtheyhavebeenreportsofUNAidtrucksbeingheld upandbridgesintotownsbeingdestroyed. Andjustrecently,othermilitiagroupsincludingtheOromo LiberationArmy(OLA)whichisanEthnicmilitiaoftheOromo people(withthelargestpopulationinEthiopia)haveannounceda coalitionwiththeTigrayPeople’sLiberationFront(TPLF)amid growingspeculationthattheywillattempttomarchontothe capitalofAddisAbabafollowingaseriesofmilitarygains,andthe takingoverofthestrategiccitiesofDessieandKombolcha.

Sowhathappensnext? Onesolutionbeingfloatedisthat Tigray separates from Ethiopia and become an independent nation. Thismightseem likeaverysimplesolution,butexpertsalsowarn thatitwouldlikelybedisastrousandmayleadtomoreviolence andEthiopiacompletelyfallingapartifotherEthnicgroupstryto follow the Tigrayan's led and push for independence for themselvesjustthesamewayEritreadidyearsago. OneofAfrica'sbiggestcountriesbypopulation(2ndlargestin population with 115 million people afterNigeria 1stwith 206 millionpeople)collapsingwillbedisastrousforitsneighbours and would likelylead to fighting overterritoriesand aneven biggerrefugeescrisis.



Accordingtoexpertstheonlywaytogetthroughthiswithout furtherviolenceisbygettingalloftheethnicgroupleadersand politicalpartyleaderstogethertonegotiateapartwaytopeace andanew directionforEthiopia,whatwerefertoasaNational DialogueandRestructuringinNigeria. ButtheEthiopian governmenthasso farrejected a National Dialogue,andinsteadofthat,Abiydecidedtogoaheadandhold theelectionsthathehadoriginallypostponedbecauseofthe #Covid19pandemicduringatimeofcivilwarandwidespread violenceeffectivelyachievingtheoppositeofnationaldialogueby excludingmillionsofEthiopiansespeciallyTigrayan'swhowere unabletoparticipateduetotheconflict. Fornow,manyEthiopiansofallethnicgroupsandpeoplearound theworldarejusthopingtoseeanendtotheongoingviolence andfortheenormousnumbersofEthiopiansthatarecurrently starving/internallydisplaced to be given allthe help thatthey desperatelyneed.

FURTHERREADING:- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopia https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/11/04/act-now-to- avert-a-bloodbath-in-ethiopia?utm_medium=social- media.content.np&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=editorial- social&utm_content=discovery.content https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/ethiopia/b175- ethiopias-civil-war-cutting-deal-stop-bloodshed https://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2021/07/14/three- questions-and-answers-about-the-civil-war-in-ethiopia/ https://www.blackpast.org/global-african-history/emperor- menelik-ii-sahle-miriam-1844-1913/ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solomonic_dynasty https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_emperors_of_Ethiopia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Aksum https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_Region https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrea https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/10/1103862 https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/sc14691.doc.htm https://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Ethiopian_Empire https://ethiopianhistory.com/ https://ethiopianhistory.com/Ethiopia_in_the_Bible/

https://www.historyextra.com/period/20th-century/haile-selassie -emperor-of-ethiopia-and-architect-of-modern-africa/ https://www.accord.org.za/ajcr-issues/the-ethiopia-eritrea-border -conflict-and-the-role-of-the-international-community/ https://politics-history.mozello.com/page- 3/params/group/122088/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/africasource/experts- react-understanding-the-conflict-in-tigray/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-09/ethiopia- s-tigray-region-under-fire-in-major-new-offensive https://guardian.ng/news/pope-urges-peace-talks-in-conflict-hit- ethiopia/ https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newyorker.com/news/ne ws-desk/will-the-leaders-of-eritrea-and-ethiopia-finally-deliver- peace-to-their-people/amp