GEOEMAG2021

INDIA 2021 DEFENSELINK.MIL Indian Army’s BMP-2 Sarath units upgraded with the help of Indian MSMEs, participating at an exercise in Rajasthan which bear fruit after four-five years, hence it direct investment – FDI or through transfer of Indian defence requires all the support from the OEM as well as technology). This clause has been fine-tuned to public sector the government. support the MSMEs through a multiplier clause. undertakings Offsets made through MSMEs will be counted as and other major Understanding the OEM-vendor eco-system 1.5 times the actual offsets made. players have is a little complicated and it is for this reason to rework their that FISME created the MSME Defence Suppliers With the government launching two defence approaches with Group (MDSG) - to link the existing and aspiring production corridors, one in Tamil Nadu and the MSMEs, while suppliers with the high value added defence other in Uttar Pradesh, it is hoped that the eco- policy changes are capital acquisition market. The particular focus system will give substantial boost to MSMEs and of FISME has been to link MSMEs with the defence industrial production. urgent lucrative Make-I and II initiative of the defence ministry under which projects are reserved The MSMEs (not just those in aerospace and for MSMEs with government bearing the defence) have the potential to be the engines development costs. for growth, provided the government puts in place the right set of support and an enabling Similarly, the Society of Indian Defence framework. The share of MSMEs in the GDP Manufacturers (SIDMI- a wing of the has potential to go up as ‘Make in India’ gathers Confederation of Indian Industries) plays a momentum. MSMEs will be prime-tier vendors role of a facilitator between foreign players and in the procurement of defence equipment by the Indian industries in identifying and developing government from the industry for `31,130 crore the right partnerships. With the defence approved by Defence Acquisition Council (DAC). Offset clause imbibed in the import orders, “The equipment are going to be manufactured the opportunities for Indian companies have in India involving Indian defence industry with further opened up. the participation of several MSMEs as prime-tier Offset clause fine-tuned to support MSMEs vendors,” the defence ministry said. As per the revised guidelines in the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) 2016, any capital In May 2020, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh acquisition categorised as ‘Buy (Global) or ‘Buy had exhorted MSMEs to make India self-reliant in or Make with ToT’ with value of `300 crore or defence technology and products. “I would like to more, is required to offset 30 percent of the say that we have to have our indigenous products, value of foreign exchange spent through Indian i.e. ‘vocal for local’, but before that in our own life, Offset Partners (IOP). This offset is discharged ‘local’ has to be focal. That is, we have to adopt through various means such as purchase (of ‘swadeshi’ products in our life. There is no doubt goods or services) and investments (foreign that MSMEs have a very important role in the goal of indigenous manufacturing, and in the goal of self-reliant India.”  www.geopolitics.in February 2021 51

INDIA 2021 MEETING NEW AIR AND MISSILE THREATS The Indian Air Force has begun substantial modernisation of its strategic air defences. But while progress has undoubtedly been made, strategic SAM defences remain weak, writes SANJAY BADRI MAHARAJ There has been a multi-dimensional UAVs), tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, development of air risk confronting Precision-Guided Munitions (PGMs), Anti- India and specifically the AAD. This Radiation Missiles (ARMs) and now the soft-kill has occurred after some time and has weapons. two basic angles. The first of these is the variety of aerial threats that have emerged. The other vertical is the spatial development of Fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters as major air the risk in the entirety of its three measurements threats have been joined by a multi-dimensional of range, altitude profile and hours of operation. strike punch comprising attack helicopters In the mid-seventies, when the air risk was and Unmanned Aerial Systems/Vehicles (UAS/ indicted primarily at a relatively short range and defences utilising generally short-range weapons 52 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 MOD A S-400 Triumf anti-aircraft missile unit. India helicopters fall in this category. While advances in Akash missiles being is acquiring five regiments (with each regiment propulsion have produced supercruise capability test-fired in salvo mode having 18 to 20 launchers and 200 missiles) of this as well as extreme agility, there have been relatively few changes in flying dynamics or engines. While advances advanced weapon system from Russia Future aircraft will become more stealthier and in propulsion with improvements in self-protection suites and have produced ROSOBORONEXPORT combined with new ordnance, will become ever supercruise more difficult to intercept. capability as well such as guns and a small stockpile of unguided Ballistic Missiles (BMs) as extreme agility, rockets and missiles, were the principal threat. While tracking and engaging ballistic missiles there have been Today, the capacity is to hit in depth with accuracy of the ICBM and IRBM type may be beyond the relatively few and precision from long ranges and several miles ability of AAD systems owing to the division changes in flying from the protector's visual space. In addition, of work between the IAF and the AAD, there dynamics or improvements in the sensors of attack aircraft are a plethora of SRBMs that have increased have enabled an attacker to strike at any time – exponentially in capability. Further, extensive engines day or night. proliferation has ensured that these are very common. The higher speed of ballistic missiles Analysis of ground-based air defences requires and their ability to deploy from mobile launchers thorough scrutiny of the adversary. Any air threat has significant implications for AAD and the now comprises the following major categories: systems needed to deal with this growing threat.  Manned Air Breathing Targets (ABT) Unmanned Aerial Systems  Ballistic Missiles (BMs) The growth in the capability, effectiveness and  Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) range of unmanned aerial vehicles has been Manned Air Breathing Targets (ABT) astonishing in the 21st century. From mini- The typical aerial targets such as aeroplanes and UAVs to High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) Unmanned Aerial Combat Vehicles (UCAVs), the military use of UAS has become widespread. Compared to manned ABT, the key advantages that these systems have are the reduced design, test and line-production costs which in turn means that these systems can be produced in large numbers. These unmanned systems, can be used in “high risk” operations, like SEAD/DEAD www.geopolitics.in February 2021 53

INDIA 2021 An Advanced Air Defence PIB (AAD) endo-atmospheric interceptor being test-fired The effectiveness missions against enemy air defences. In the near somewhat inadequate as the high speed and of AAA and SAMs future, the unmanned systems will be equipped small profile of such weapons render interception with solar panels in an effort to have – virtually exceedingly difficult. against PGMs – unlimited endurance together with their India’s efforts in preparing defences and artillery has exploitation in new roles, like communications Dealing with manned aircraft and cruise been somewhat relay, which will have a reduced cost compared missiles is well within the technological capacity inadequate as to the satellite equivalent. Further, unmanned of India’s existing systems that have undergone the high speed systems can be used in order to condense air periodic upgrades as needed. However, the defences and exhaust their payload. The future need for a BMD system — encompassing and small belongs to unmanned systems. Legacy manned both exoatmospheric and endoatmospheric profile of such aircraft will provide the role of the “mother interception assets offers a completely different weapons render ship” to a variable number of unmanned combat challenge and has presented the IAF and DRDO interception systems. with a number of technological and practical exceedingly constraints. At the outset, it has to be reiterated In addition to these threats, consideration that, to date, India has not deployed any BMD difficult must be given to dealing with precision-guided systems though its AAD and PDV systems that munitions and artillery, rocket and mortar have been successfully tested several times. bombs. These systems are increasingly able to target opposing positions with great efficacy. At present, for fire-control purposes, the Given the need of AAD to protect high value BMD system uses ELTA Systems-built EL/M- military targets from such munitions, there will 2080 ‘Green Pine’ ground-based active phased- be an increasing need to develop systems to array L-band long-range tracking radar (LRTR). protect said targets. Two of these radars were supplied in late 2001 under the US $50 million ‘Project Sword Fish’ to To date, however, the effectiveness of AAA and SAMs against PGMs and artillery has been 54 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 the DRDO by the ELTA Systems Group subsidiary these functions, the MCC assigns the target to PIB of Israel Aerospace Industries. This has led to the LCC of a launch battery. The LCC computes some confusion as some have assumed the name the necessary time required and the optimal A QRSAM (Quick Reaction ‘Sword Fish’ to be a DRDO-developed radar. window for launching the interceptor based Surface-to-Air) missile being India did write three million lines of software upon information received from a radar based on successfully test-launched on code for the Battle Management/Command, the speed, altitude and flight path of the target. November 13, 2020 Control, Communications & Intelligence (BM/ C³I) centre, the hub of software and hardware While experimental versions of tracking and At present, that systems. fire-control radars are available for testing, India for fire-control would need to establish production facilities for purposes, the BMD Also, transmission links to the interceptor these radars. To date, there is little indication system sues ELTA missile are based on jam-proof code-division that any progress has been made in this regard, Systems-built multiple access (CDMA) technology with reflecting either a desire for a refined system to EL/M-2080 ‘Green multiple data transmission links having been be finalised for production or concern that these Pine’ ground- set up so that if one is jammed the others could may still need to be imported. Currently, India based active function. In addition, Prasun Sengupta notes uses the imported radars mentioned earlier phased-array that Israeli inputs were sought and obtained for and has not placed future orders for additional L-band long- designing and fabricating the BM/C³I centre, systems. range tracking which not only acts as the DRDO’s primary Defences against cruise missiles and UAVs radar (LRTR) BMD engagement simulator but is also being The cha llenge of defending against cruise missiles used for evolving BM/C³I concepts, for defining and UAVs has assumed as much importance in BMD goals and developing a BMD doctrine, for the Indian context as BMD. While the existing evaluating candidate systems architectures, SAMs and radars have some capability against for serving as the principal prototyping-cum- cruise missiles, the deployment of the Chinese validation tool for the BMD’s BM/C³I algorithms ground-launched CJ-10/DF-10A and air-launched and for defining the human role in the BMD K/AKD-20 land-attack cruise missiles (LACM) battle. The BMD’s endoatmospheric element and against the Babur (a DF-10A clone) and makes use of the THALES Raytheon-supplied Ra’ad LACMs of Pakistan has spurred interest S-band Master-A engagement radar. and urgency in the development of an effective cruise missile defence system which would be DRDO’s overall BMD C4ISR architecture is significantly more effective than the existing intended to consist of both over the horizon and network of ageing radars and SAMs. X-band fire control radars, that detect and track incoming missiles, a mission control centre To this end, the initial steps to develop an (MCC) that fuses input (which may also come effective CMD system are being taken. A version from satellite-based sensors), processes it and then sends orders for engagement to launch control centres (LCCs) situated up to 1000 km away via mobile communication terminals (MCTs). According to Saurav Jha, the LCCs then orchestrate the final launch sequence with the mobile interceptor sitting nearby. Repeated tests of the two-tier system, including the latest Prithvi Defence Vehicle (PDV) test, has given enough confidence to DRDO to recommend the freezing of the current configuration for Phase-I. Both the radars and the LCCs receive and send information via target update transmitters based on the CDMA tech nolog y. A deployed Indian BMD system would consist of several launch vehicles, radars, LCCs and the MCC. Using a secure communication system, the MCC and perhaps, secondary sites would be used to link a geographically-widespread network. The MCC is the heart of the BMD system. It is a software-intensive component which receives information from radars and satellites which is then processed by ten simultaneously running computers. The MCC is then connected to all other elements of the system through a wide area network. The MCC would perform tasks such as target classification, target assignment and interception success assessment deciding the number of interceptors required for the target for an assured kill. After performing all www.geopolitics.in February 2021 55

INDIA 2021 Air Defence Tactical Control PIB Radar (ADTCR) passing through Rajpath during the 2020 Republic Day Parade in New Delhi The Indian Air of the Astra-2 BVRAAM is also being modified to India’s National Capital Region. He further Force has begun for use with the ground-based Quick Reaction states that site selection work for a similar CMD Surface-to-Air Missile (QR-SAM) system and grid meant for Jamnagar and Mumbai is now in a substantial its maiden test-firing took place on June 4, 2017, progress. modernisation followed by another on July 3, 2017. Integrated air command, control and communications of its strategic system air defences. But The Mach 1.8 QR-SAM will have a range Phase 1 of the IAF’s IACCCS. which seeks to while progress has of between 3 km and 30 km, and an intercept provide a layered, hardened and in-depth air undoubtedly been ceiling from 30m to 6km in altitude, with defence command, control and communications made, strategic 360-degree coverage in azimuth. While the IAF- network achieved full operational capability SAM defences specific variant of the QR-SAM will be employed by June 2012 with the operationalisation of remain weak exclusively for cruise missile defence, for the the Air Force Network (AFNET), the fully Indian Army, a QR-SAM regiment will comprise a secure and reliable digital information grid Regimental Command Post Vehicle, one S-band which is IAF-owned, operated and managed. 90 km-range air-defence tactical control radar According to Prasun Sengupta, the integrated for volumetric airspace surveillance, and three air command, control and communications batteries, each of which will include a Battery (IACCC) that is being established under a two- Command Post Vehicle, a 120 km-range C-band phase programme at a cost of `16,000 crore, active phased-array Battery Surveillance Radar is designed to achieve a robust, survivable and four Combat Groups (CG). Each CG, in turn, network-centric C4I3 infrastructure that will will comprise an X-band 80 km-range active receive direct real-time feeds from existing phased-array Battery Multi-Function Radar, space-based overhead reconnaissance satellites, plus a 16 km-range optronic fire-control system ground-based and aerostat-mounted ballistic and four Missile Launch Vehicles (MLV), each of missile early warning radars and high-altitude- which will carry six canister-encased missiles. long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicles and manned airborne early warning and control As for the CMD network’s projected platforms. In summary, the IACCCS gives the deployment sites, two villages in Alwar and IAF an automated command and control system Pali districts of Rajasthan have been selected for air defence operations as undertaken by for the first two QR-SAM Squadrons. Prasun the IAF. IACCCS operations will use AFNET Sengupta claims that Rajasthan’s State Forests enabling the integration of all ground-based and Department has cleared the acquisition of 850 airborne sensors, air defence weapon systems ha of land in Khoa in Alwar district, and 350 ha in Rupnagar for installing a CMD grid that will protect the western and southern approaches 56 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 and command and control nodes enabling a The Indian Air Force has begun a substantial Prithvi Defence coordinated and efficient response to any aerial modernisation of its strategic air defences but Vehicle (PDV)- Mark-2 threat from any sector. while progress has undoubtedly been made, interceptor which was strategic SAM defences remain weak. The IAF successfully used as an The IACCCS can be further integrated with is in the process of inducting seven additional ASAT weapon during the army and navy radar networks and with the squadrons of Akash SAMs to add to eight already India’s maiden anti- civilian airspace surveillance system and to in service and has sought to upgrade sixteen of the satellite test (Mission enable the provision of an integrated air situation Pechora squadrons. Shakti) on March 27, picture for operators to carry out air defence roles. 2019 It is the intention of the IAF that all of its assets In addition, at least nine squadrons of a — air, ground and, eventually, space — would be 70km range MRSAM are being procured with PIB connected to create total situational awareness the possibility that several more squadrons of a region. For the first time, the IAF will be may follow which, in conjunction with future Replacement of close to achieving a complete level of integrated Akash procurements, could replace the entire the OSA-AKM is coverage of all of India’s airspace. This will not Pechora force. Replacement of the OSA-AKM is in progress with only dramatically enhance basic air defence in progress with four squadrons of SPYDER SAMs four squadrons of operations but also will provide an essential first being delivered and a new Quick Reaction SAM SPYDER SAMs step in which a BMD detection, tracking and under development. There are also reports of an being delivered engagement system is to be built. To this end, the order for the American NASAMS system based on IACCCS will also coordinate the early warning the AMRAAM air-to-air missile to cover certain and a new and response and interception aspects of India’s VIP areas in New Delhi. This latter purchase Quick Reaction planned layered, ground-based, two-tier BMD is somewhat odd as the system introduces yet network that is now in the development stages another SAM into the IAF’s SAM inventory. In SAM under and but which depends heavily on the IACCCS. addition, the purchase of five squadrons of S-400 development. SAMs promises to dramatically enhance the Indian NASAMS is also Communications for the IACCCS is provided AD system.  being procured through the fibre-optic network-based AFNet, which replaces the IAF’s troposcatter-based communications network. This system was developed at a cost of `10.77 billion in collaboration with US-based Cisco Systems Inc, HCL Infosystems Ltd and Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL). It incorporates the latest traffic transportation technology in the form of internet protocol packets over the network using multi- protocol label switching. A large voice-over- internet-protocol layer with stringent quality of service enforcement will facilitate robust, high- quality voice, video and conferencing solutions. Having established these critical components, the IACCCS can now be integrated with a large number of new-generation ground-based radars that are now in the process of being delivered or are on order. These radars will be able to deal with airspace surveillance in search of airborne targets (such as manned aircraft, ballistic and cruise missiles, attack helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles), or coastal surveillance or ground surveillance. This would enable India to mount a coordinated response to an attack from any direction and through any medium. Hard-kill systems The SAM units comprise 30 squadrons of SA-3b Pechoras and 8 squadrons of SA-8b OSA-AKM systems and are deployed to protect key air bases as well as some major military/industrial centers. Though the SAMs are old, they have been updated periodically and, when operating as part of the BADZ, are deployed in such a manner as to minimise their shortcomings. In addition, a large number of L-40/70 radar directed 40mm anti-aircraft guns and man-portable Igla-1M SAMs are deployed to provide a 'last-ditch' tier of 'hard-kill' defences. www.geopolitics.in February 2021 57

INDIA 2021 An Indian Air Force C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft on landing approach AUGMENTING THE AIRLIFT CAPABILITY WIKIMEDIA COMMONS India is slowly and steadily raising its means to deploy and sustain military forces across possible distant battlefields by air, writes NINAD D SHETH The 1960s were a very long time ago. Defence (MoD) aims at replacing it with a proper When an aircraft was introduced in military transport aircraft. The likely contender is the Indian Air Force, the choice was the Airbus C-295. Sixty-two of these aircraft are to befuddling. Nehru ordered the purchase be purchased at `17,000 crore rupees ($2.6 billion) of the Hawker Sidley-748 to fulfill the for the IAF and the Indian Coast Guard. requirements for a transport fleet. The aircraft was a curious choice as it lacked a loading ramp at the The reason that India wants this medium rare and its fuselage did not open at the back either light aircraft is flexibility. The aircraft can carry a - thus ruling out any cargo attributes. maximum payload of 9.25 tonnes. Being smaller in dimension than the other aircraft in the IAF’s fleet Despite all this, the aircraft has served the IAF such as the C-130Js, C-17s and IL-76s, the C295s well. Being a very forgiving workhorse, it has been can take off and land at many air strips where the in its role as a troop and VIP carrier - not hauling larger ones may not find operations easy. This will cargo that was the original requirement. When give the airforce a nimble choice to airlift supplies electronics and reconnaissance hardware was drop troops or carry out medical evacuations. added, it also served as a communication aircraft that could check on enemy missile defences and The other fact that has worked in the favour eavesdrop on missile sites. of this aircraft has been its proven performance in theaters of war like Iraq, Chad and Afghanistan, However, the new tender by the Ministry of albeit where the operators had air superiority so 58 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 the threats to the aircraft were much less than the airfield in day as well as at night. The cargo cabin of an theaters in which it may participate for the Indian It can carry a cargo of wheeled army vehicles Ilyushin IL-76 aircraft Air Force. in two side-by-side rows, including the Indian WIKIPEDIA The new aircraft is also specifically to be Army’s main battle tank- the T-90, three infantry- manufactured not by the state-owned Hindustan fighting vehicles and all in just one carry load. The Aeronautics Limited that is the usual partner for C-17 can drop a single 60,000-lb. payload, with such deals, but a private company. While the first sequential load drops of 110,000 lb. This gives 16 aircraft will likely be built at the Airbus facility an enormous fillip for the army to sustain troops in Spain, the remainder will be manufactured and infrastructure at high altitudes and enter and in India by Tata Advanced Systems Limited. It is exit difficult operational areas while asserting the a huge leap of faith for the private industry and ability of sustaining a chain of supply even at far indeed will be very closely watched for the success off and difficult to access destinations. The C-17 of the ‘Make in India’ programme in defence. A can also seat 54 troops in the sidewall and 48 in the recent release by the MoD did not mention the centerline scheme. Tata’s by name but said, “…the case is first of its kind which envisages participation of private India has 11 C-17’s and if the plans to maintain companies and would prove to be a boost for our an armored brigade each in the northern and defence industry.” eastern sectors along with three additional mechanised infantry battalions outfitted for high- The deal is expected to be signed during the Aero altitude operations to succeed, it will need at latest India exhibition at Bangalore in 2021. Former Vice 11 more such aircraft in the future. It may need a Chief of Air Staff R K Sharma puts the importance massive order to reopen the line or perhaps look at of the acquisition in perspective: “India will be an Indian manufacturing alternative. able to replace the Avro with the C-295. It achieves two critical goals. First is the tactical load carrying The Il-76 is the backbone of the Indian strategic capacity in all weather especially where you do not air force airlift capability; the aircraft can carry need to deploy heavy lift aircraft. Secondly, a fast almost 18 tonnes of equipment to high altitude aircraft with lower turnaround time, it allows for air bases in the Himalayas in the winter months greater concentration of logistics.” though this load carrying is dramatically reduced in summer months due to aerodynamic changes The deal is just the latest in a series of recent induced by the temperature. Put differently, the IL- acquisitions that have powered the impressive 76 can transport up to 70 troops or three shipping airlift and logistical capabilities of the Indian Air containers worth of cargo. The aircraft is in need of Force (IAF). With the lack of relative road access, a comprehensive upgrade a request that was first airlift has proven to be a boon in the ongoing reportedly made by the IAF in 2018. It is expected standoff with China on the Himalayan heights. that this upgrade may be taken up now only post Since 2014 India has been deploying elements the sorting out of the China standoff. of the armored formations to Ladakh. The rich history of the Indian Air Force - that flew 12 AMX tanks up to Chushul near the Pangong lake in 1962 in an AN 12 aircraft and also flew in troops back in 1948 for the defence of Srinagar is now being taken forward in a manner and scale that resembles the world’s great air supplied interventions such as the famous blockade of Berlin. The IAF has airlifted an estimated 15,000 troops employing the “holy trinity” of the fleet consisting of C-17 Globemasters, Il-76s, An-32s. The troop lift and material logistics support are a continuous rotating process. India has airlifted an estimated 100 T 90 tanks in the short span of two month to deploy some of these at heights of 18,000 feet which is some of the highest that tanks have ever been positioned. The acquisition of the Boeing C-17 Globemaster III has given a quantum leap to the logistical capabilities of the IAF. The aircraft is a high-wing, 4-engine T-tailed military- transporter it can carry large equipment, supplies and troops directly to small airfields in difficult rugged terrain such as Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. According to aviation sources, the aircraft can takeoff from a 7,600-feet airfield, carry a payload of 160,000 pounds (this changes with the altitude of deployment and the weather), fly 2,400 nautical miles, and refuel while in flight and land in 3,000 feet or less on a small unpaved or paved www.geopolitics.in February 2021 59

INDIA 2021 A C-17 Globemaster-III MOD transport jet A new tender by The bulk of India’s lifting is done by the old is a testament to courage of the air force pilots the MoD aims at workhorse An-32. This aircraft is the medium who fly knowing full well that while it may be replacing vintage lift equivalent in terms of age to the MiG-21 in certified as airworthy for the particular flight it is the fighter fleet. It can carry 42 paratroopers or nevertheless a very old aircraft. Another problem Avros with a 26 casualties on stretcher with three medical is that An-32 has power limitation that makes it proper military personnel or 6,500 kg maximum payload. tough for it to be employed for operations at very transport aircraft. high altitude airfields. For the near future India It is way beyond its due date and reflects the will do well to speed up the upgrade of the An-32 The likely lost decade of the 1990s when the air force did not and hope that there is a budget for its replacement contender is the act to replace its ageing fleet. The aircraft carries in the medium-term future. Airbus C-295 out everything from troop movement to rescue operations and airlift the casualties. The problem For special operations India has the C-130 is its over 30 year in service. India signed a $400 super Hercules in the fleet. These are used for million deal with Ukraine in 2009 this was a huge special forces to undertake top secret high value sum and bit like throwing good money after bad missions like surgical strikes but can be put into but given zero option it was a start. Only about 50 emergency use for logistics supply. It is however of the 115 in the fleet went through the upgrade. sobering to note that the IAF is one of the very At this vintage, airframe upgrades are tricky and few who have seen a crash of these most sturdy of only partly useful. The fact is the Indian airlift aircraft in peacetime. and rescue capability is constrained because this aircraft was not replaced in time. As things stand, India has now got the ability to offer a sustained presence thanks to the good mix There have been two air crashes in the last of aircraft that allow transport of troops medical decade since the upgrade was agreed upon both and logistical equipment for a long period of time. in Mechuka in West Siang district of Arunachal This includes weapons, food and fuel to be carried Pradesh. This is not all; in 1986 an An-32 to forward positions, thereby allowing long- disappeared over the Arabian Sea on a delivery term supply chain that results in sustained force flight from the Soviet Union via Oman. No trace projection, along with the army aviation corps. was found of the aircraft or the people onboard. The heli-lift push In 2016, another An-32 flying from Chennai to India has been quietly beefing up its helicopter- the Andaman and Nicobar Islands went missing lift capability. The helicopter fleet is crucial for above the Bay of Bengal. It had 29 people on encompassing broadly six operational roles of board. The aircraft was never found. Flying it 60 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 reconnaissance, supply, support, evacuation, Pakistan and China is such that airlift is a necessity WIKIPEDIA search and rescue. and not a luxury. Indian Air Force Antonov The backbone of the fleet that has over 500 Herein lies the rub. You cannot change An-32 at Leh airbase helicopters are the Cheetah and Chetek helicopters geography – and while India has made steady based on the French design. Here again India progress in indigenous light utility helicopters, we Given the two- is late by 10 years in finding replacements of are totally import- dependent in fixed wing aircraft. front war scenario helicopters that have given India sterling service The indigenous assembly and manufacture of the India faces, India for over 30 years. However, work is in progress upcoming airbus C-295 will thus be very closely with around 140 Russian Ka-226 T helicopters watched. The private sector ecosystem it will would need to expected to be produced in India. This five year create with the $115 billion Tata group gives hope enhance airlift programmed will make a new generation of the for the future. capabilities much main light utility helicopters for the Indian Armed more significantly. Forces. The Russian helicopter is a design marvel: India faces the menace of a two-front war; this It is time for the Ka-226T features two main rotors which rotate makes costly imports inevitable as an ongoing acquisitions in opposite directions. The fact that it has no tail affair. Harsh Pant, Professor at King’s College rotor removes the need for complex mechanisms London who has worked on India’s defence and also decreases the helicopter's length. Making planning and acquisition sums up the situation, it much more flexible in deployment terms the co- says: “Advanced airlift aircrafts like Globemasters axial rotors provide greater lift and are reportedly that can carry large combat equipment and troops better at stability while hovering this can be across long distances are a critical part of the IAF’s important when undertaking troop deployment strategic and combat airlift capability. They are operations. The detachable rare cabin allows also a game changer in situations like the Ladakh the KA226T to transform from a troop carrier a conflict with China. But given the two-front war medical evacuation role or carry different types of scenario India faces, India would need to enhance cargo lift in as little as two hours providing unique such capabilities much more significantly.” flexibility to the air force. In sum, for the IAF to be in a comfortable The bulk of the carry in the IAF through position, India has to go forward with critical helicopter is done by the Mi17 V5. This Russian deadlines and budgets that will determine the workhorse is a completely new version of the success in the long-haul. MI17 which has served India well for decades. The helicopter’s operability in high-altitude and hot The author is a senior journalist specialising in conditions is the primary reason why it is a tool strategic matters of choice both on the Pakistan and Tibet front. Resourceful loading and unloading of cargo and paratroopers are carried out through the presence of two doors on the sides of the helicopter and a powered ramp which saves time that is crucial in operational situations. Most of all, adaptability of the MI-17 lets India deploy it in multifunctional roles such as the capability to effectively perform assault/transport and combat tasks during a single mission sortie. MI 17V has relatively heavy armor protection which allows ingress in war theaters and is considered a proven capability of this helicopter. The capability to land on unprepared sites at night and in limited adverse weather conditions has been a boon in places like Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. India currently has 70 Mi17V helicopters and there is a possibility that an addition of a further 59 may be discussed at the Aero India 2021. The future of Indian airlift As pointed out earlier, Indian policy planning at the defence ministry level has missed two crucial parameters of airlift force modernisation. First by not replacing two critical platforms - the An-32 and the Cheetah and Chetak light utility helicopters, the Indian airlift fleet is hobbled. In peacetime the drawback can be overlooked but as tensions sore, for example, with China, this becomes a critical drawback. What is more, while our road infrastructure building has made very impressive stride in the recent past – the terrain both vis a vis www.geopolitics.in February 2021 61

INDIA 2021 An Indian Air Force Jaguar deep-penetration strike aircraft IAF: DODMEDIA.OSD.MIL CAPABILITIES, CAPABILITY GAPS AND OPTIONS 62 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 The Indian Air Force requires a strength of 42 combat squadrons by 2027-32 to meet the contingencies of a two-front war. Assuming a practical strength of 31 squadrons — discounting the Tejas squadron that is still to reach its desired strength — there is an immediate requirement for 11 more fighter squadrons to meet its desired force levels by 2027, explains SANJAY BADRI MAHARAJ The 2012 basic doctrine of the Indian Combat assets The Indian Air Air Force (IAF) speaks about the The Indian Air Force has an effective strength of Force is the development of an air strategy that 31 combat squadrons. These include 11 squadrons world’s fourth includes a capability to conduct a of the Su-30MKI, three each of the MiG-29 and largest and strategic air campaign alongside a Mirage 2000 (currently undergoing an upgrade), counter-air campaign and a counter-surface six of the Jaguar (at the initial stage of an upgrade despite going to a force campaign. The latter would involve the use process) and six of the MiG-21 Bison. In addition, period of decline of airpower against land and sea-based targets two upgraded MiG-27 squadrons continue to in respect of the while the former would focus on depleting serve alongside the equivalent of half a squadron number of combat an enemy’s ability to use its own air power with the Tactics and Air Combat Development squadrons, the against India. The IAF’s doctrine notes that the Establishment (TACDE). The last squadrons of IAF is still large counter air campaign comprises two basic air MiG-21M and un-upgraded MiG-27s have now operations: Offensive Counter Air (OCA) and been phased out of service. It is to be noted that and highly Defensive Counter Air (DCA) better known in the peak strength of the Indian Air Force was capable the IAF as Air Defence (AD). In both cases, it approximately 39.5 combat squadrons, with four is possible that a combination of missiles and MiG-23MF/-BN and six MiG-27ML squadrons aircraft might be so employed. Similarly, the forming the core of the strike assets and some strategic air campaign consists of conventional 17 MiG-21 FL/M/MF/bis squadrons forming and nuclear operations, and the counter surface the bulk of the air defence units. These were, at force campaign consists of air land and maritime the time, complemented by the Jaguar, Mirage air operations. Transport aircraft and most of 2000 and MiG-29 squadrons, which added a the IAF’s helicopter assets would undertake air high-technology cutting edge to an otherwise mobility operations that would form part of the mediocre force. Since then, the MiG-21 and MiG- combat enabling operations, moving supplies 27 squadrons have been in decline and the MiG- and troops as required. 23 phased out completely. Current state of the Indian Air Force Transporters and helicopter units The Indian Air Force is the world’s fourth largest The Indian Air Force operates over two hundred and despite going to a period of decline in transport aircraft and over three hundred respect of the number of combat squadrons, the helicopters. In the case of the latter, the Russian IAF is still large and highly capable. Looking at Mil Mi-17 dominates the force, supplemented the overall strength of the aviation assets of the by Chetak and Cheetah helicopters. In the case force, the air-defence network and the network of transport aircraft, the An-32 fulfils most of surface-to-air missiles would show that the transport tasks, augmented by larger types IAF has maintained a combat capability that is such as the C-130J, the Il-76 and the C-17. New effective and competent to perform its assigned helicopters such as the Chinook and Apache are tasks. This is not to say that improvements being inducted. are not needed. However, appreciating the Trainers size, scope and assets available to the IAF, its The Indian Air Force operates a variety of trainer capability can be seen. IAF’s Air Strategy Counter Air Counter Surface Strategic Air Campaign Force Campaign Campaign Combat Enabling Operations www.geopolitics.in February 2021 63

INDIA 2021 PIB Dassault Rafale fighter aircraft. Basic training is conducted on the fighters, with the latter taking priority. The other jets being inducted in Pilatus PC-7-II while basic and intermediate jet involves the procurement of four squadrons of the presence of Indian training is conducted on the HJT-16 Kiran trainer. the Tejas Mk.1A variant. However, no contract Defence Minister Rajnath Advanced training and armament training are for the latter has yet been placed. Singh at Ambala Air Force conducted on the BAE Hawk. Options: The tyranny of production arithmetic Station on September Reality vs desired capability There is no way for production of the Tejas – 10, 2020. Two additional The IAF desires a strength of some 42 combat even if it were to reach 16 aircraft per annum squadrons of the same squadrons by the period 2027-32 to meet the – to replace those 13 squadrons. If the IAF is aircraft may be ordered contingencies of a two-front war. Assuming a not desirous of accepting more Tejas Mk.1 for acquisition very soon practical strength of 31 squadrons – discounting squadrons— although a compelling argument the Tejas squadron that is still to reach its desired could be made for the acceptance of three more The IAF operates strength — there is an immediate requirement to replace the non-upgraded MiG-27s and MiG- a variety of for 11 more to meet its desired force levels by 21M/bis; it means that it wishes to wait for the 2027. To date, three more Su-30MKI and two Mk.1A. This is yet to have its avionics selected trainer aircraft. Dassault Rafale squadrons are on order with two – much less fly. This process must, of course be Basic training squadrons of Tejas MK.1 fighters supplementing expedited but experience suggests that no more is conducted on them. All this will add some seven squadrons to than four Mk.1A squadrons are feasible by 2027. the Pilatus PC- the IAF. However, six squadrons of MiG-21Bison The suggestion of establishing production lines 7-II while basic and the two MiG-27UPG will be phased out by in the private sector has much merit but given and intermediate 2025. If no new aircraft are ordered, it is possible the strategic partnerships already formed, this jet training is that the IAF would be left with 30 combat option may run into some difficulty. conducted on the squadrons by 2025: an overall deficiency of 12 HJT-16 Kiran squadrons when set against its desired strength. This leaves a gap of nine squadrons to be Subsequently, one Jaguar squadron is due to be filled. These numbers suggest that an import trainer retired by 2027, which would mean an overall of fighters— some five squadrons worth – deficiency of 13 squadrons by 2027. are an important path towards reaching the IAF’s desired strength by the stipulated date. Although making up this shortfall by 2027 Therefore, as much as the Tejas should be poses significant challenges, the IAF is not supported, the IAF cannot do without the import without options. It had planned to acquire option to meet its targeted fleet strength. Once an additional five squadrons of Rafales again, the practicality of production means and undoubtedly would still like to do so if that even if induction of new fighters were to permitted. To compensate for this shortfall start between 2021 and 2022, no more than five and to cater for future replacements for aircraft squadrons could be produced by 2027. such as the Jaguar and eventually the MiG-29 Solution: Adopt multiple courses of procurement and Mirage 2000, India has two active plans to There is no single option that would satisfy the bolster force levels. One of these plans involves desire for the IAF to not only improve the quality the procurement of new single and twin-engine 64 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 of aircraft but also increase squadron strength. bomb in the form of the Sudarshan with a WIKIPEDIA A possible way forward could possibly along the range of 9km. It has also initiated a project to lines below with the Tejas and imports moving manufacture a 50km range next-generation Sukhoi-30MKI fighter-bomber simultaneously. Full support for the Tejas Mk.1A laser-guided bomb. Furthermore, in 2016, of the Indian Air Force project has to be forthcoming on the part of all successful tests from a Su-30MKI were carried stakeholders – government, ADA, HAL and IAF. out in respect of a non-winged glide bomb To compensate for This would deliver four squadrons to the IAF by called the Garuda with a range of 30km and a this shortfall and 2025, with the prospect of additional aircraft if winged glide bomb called the Garuthmaa with to cater for future the Tejas Mk.2 is funded and developed through a range of 100km. Testing has commenced for the necessary redesign of the airframe. A lack of a next-generation anti-radiation missile with replacements focus and priority has been the bane of the Tejas a range of 100 to 125km and development of a for aircraft such project in recent years rather than technical stand-off anti-tank missile (SANT) with a range as the Jaguar shortcomings in the aircraft or technological of 15-20km has begun with captive trials being and eventually hurdles. Alongside this Mk1A programme, the conducted from a Mi-35 helicopter. Finally, in the MiG-29 and IAF should consider additional Rafale imports 2018, tests of a 100km range Smart Anti-Airfield as well as additional MiG-29s and Su-30MKIs. Weapon (SAAW) were successfully conducted Mirage 2000, Additional Tejas Mk.1 could be considered. from a Jaguar aircraft using live warheads. This India has two New weapons system is now nearing the end of its development active plans to The IAF’s capability gaps are not confined to and may be inducted soon. Six SAAWs can be bolster force levels aircraft. The need for new munitions is acute. carried by each Jaguar. Air-to-air missiles The Mirage-2000 upgrade replaces the Super Mention should also be made of the BrahMos 530D and R.550 with advanced, longer-ranged missile which has been adapted for launch from MICA air-to-air missiles for both the beyond- the Su-30MKI, initially as an anti-ship weapon visual-range (BVR) and within-visual-range and thereafter in its land-attack version – each interception (WVR) tasks. The MiG-29s and Su- with a range of 300-450km. The anti-ship air- 30MKIs as well as the MiG-21 Bisons now use a launched version has already been successfully mix of R-77 and R-73 missiles for BVR and WVR tested. interception respectively. In addition, the Su- 30MKI fleet uses long-range variants of the R-27 Alongside these indigenous systems, India missile which can engage targets over 130km has acquired Harpoon anti-ship missiles for its away. Jaguar aircraft which are undergoing upgrades, with Kh-59 and Kh-35 missiles being obtained The need for a R-77 replacement has been for the upgraded MiG-29s. Furthermore, the felt with the Astra being designed to fill that Su-30MKI has been observed with Kh-29, Kh- role. Already achieving intercepts at a range of 31 and Kh-59 missiles in various versions while 75-100km, the Astra has the potential for much TV-guided bombs such as the KAB-500KR are in evolution and growth and the need for a much widespread service. India’s Jaguar and Mirage- longer-ranged version should be processed as a 2000s also deploy the Spice-1000 bomb and the matter of urgency. Popeye/Crystal Maze air-to-surface missile and The Tejas Mk1 and Mk.1A are currently cleared to fire the Derby BVR missile and the R-73 WVR missile. There are plans to integrate the Israeli Python-V WVR missile but this plan ran into some difficulty with excessive flutter during testing at speeds exceeding 0.9 Mach. There are reports that the IAF will try to integrate the AIM- 132 ASRAAM air-to-air missile on the Tejas. This missile has already been ordered to replace the R.550s currently used by India’s Jaguars. It is the forthcoming delivery of the Dassault Rafale that promises to revolutionise the IAF’s air combat capability. In addition to a substantial stock of Mica air-to-air missiles, India has ordered the MBDA Meteor long-range missile which can engage targets at ranges beyond 150km. This promises to completely transform India’s air combat capabilities and to confer onto India a significant advantage over its rivals in potential theatres of border conflict. Longer-range air-to-surface ordnance India has attempted to make a laser-guided www.geopolitics.in February 2021 65

INDIA 2021 A Mirage-2000 aircraft in WIKIPEDIA Aerostat systems with at least nine more being flight sought. A plan to use old Airbus A-320 platforms the Belouga sub-munition dispenser. It is of for AEW purposes has been approved pending The induction of interest that while the Jaguar is being upgraded an order for ten based on the A-330. four squadrons and is capable of delivering laser-guided of Spyder short- munitions, it remains to be seen if other stand- The process of replacing the legacy radars of range SAMs off munitions will be integrated. One such the Indian air force is slowly making progress. to supplement option, in particular for use against armoured A critical element in this is the Arudhra version the OSA-AKM vehicles is the Brimstone missile which is on of the Elta M-2084 radar. Orders for 34 radars of squadrons will offer to the IAF but has not yet been selected. this type were placed in 2009 and between direct be followed by supply and production of an Indian version of DRDO’s own A big step forward will come with the the same this radar will become the backbone QRSAM system induction of the Dassault Rafale as the supplied of the new air-defence network. The sensor which has begun ordnance will include provision for the carriage network will be completed with a series of low- its testing process of Indian ordnance, including those fitted with level and medium-level radars. laser-guidance kits, the Spice-1000 bomb and the Alarm anti-radiation missile. The biggest Low level surveillance is to be catered by a system included with the Rafale is the SCALP total of 67 low-level air transportable radars stand-off munition which has a range of over (LLTR), including 19 with 180km-range, three- 500km and which has the promise of turning the dimensional THALES-built Ground Smarter Rafale into a most formidable strike platform. GS-100 radars which were ordered in November Air-defence requirements 2009. One of the notable issues faced during the encounter with the PAF on February 28, 2019 The Indian Air Force is embarking upon a was the importance of both ground radar and systematic indigenisation of the majority of the AEW coverage. The IAF has to urgently procure SAM inventory. In addition to eight Akash SAM additional radar systems and AEW platforms. squadrons in service, seven more are on order. The IAF has a total of 3 A-50 Phalcon AEW The Indo-Israeli joint venture for a MR-SAM will platforms, supplemented by three ERJ-145 equip some nine squadrons. based Netra AEW systems developed by DRDO. However, the requirement for additional AEW There is also work being undertaken on a aircraft, including two additional A-50 aircraft long-range SAM of as yet an unknown type. have been delayed for some considerable time. The induction of four squadrons of Spyder Additional AEW assets are provided by two short-range SAMs to supplement the OSA-AK-M squadrons will be followed by DRDO’s own QR- SAM system which has begun its testing process. For the sake of completeness, it should also be noted that the IAF is upgrading and has digitised sixteen of its vintage Pechora SAM squadrons to extend their lives for some years to come. For long-range SAMs, India has placed much emphasis on the acquisition of five squadrons of S-400 SAMs but there are persistent reports of a DRDO project for an extra-long-range SAM with a performance similar to that of the S-400. Another possibility is that the MRSAM receive an additional booster to give it a range of over 150km. Finally, the IAF is for the first-time contemplating raising AD gun units under a proposed Close-In-Weapon System (CIWS) project for 244 AD guns. A limited tender has already been floated for the CIWS programme with Bharat Forge Limited, Punj Lloyd, Tata Power SED, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Defence, and Mahindra Defence Systems, as well as the state-controlled Bharat Electronics Limited and Ordnance Factory Board being participants. The IAF has identified the combination of QRSAMs, Akash SAMs, MRSAMs and LRSAMs of the S-400 type as being required to complete its air-defence requirements. As against these requirements some progress has been made for the procurement of all four types. However, the numbers of systems of each type being procured are somewhat limited as of now. Future orders for the Akash, MRSAM and S-400 should be expected as a matter of urgency.  66 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 DAANPE-W202B0OITSTOLLED WINE IN VITALYKUZMIN.NET S-300VM Antey-2500 Whether the terminology change from Defence ‘Procurement’ Procedure long-range mobile to Defence ‘Acquisition’ Procedure is simply semantics, or it will usher in surface-to-air a mindset change from MoD that going forward it means business as far anti-ballistic missile as ‘Atmanirbharta’ in Defence Procurements are concerned,- only time will systems acquired tell, argues MAHESH RAMACHANDRAN by India from Russia “The only lesson we learn from timeframe. While the 700-plus page DAP-2020 has history is that we learn no lessons addressed a number of procurement infirmities One would have at all” – nothing exemplifies this identified by the industry bodies it has failed to thought that the adage more than the successive address the important aspect of accountability and LAC standoff with versions of the Defence ownership for delays in the procurement process China would have Procurement Procedure (DPP) churned out by the and the reduction in the number of agencies been a wakeup MoD since 2002, each more voluminous, complex involved in the procurement process. This paper call for the Indian and procurement unfriendly than the previous looks at certain major lacunae in the DAP 2020 and MoD forcing it to version. One would have thought that the LAC makes some recommendations to address the same. come out with a standoff with China coupled with the growing DAP-2020 simple and efficient China – Nepal – Pakistan- Iran nexus would have The DAP 2020 is the outcome of the DPP aimed at been a wakeup call for the Indian MoD forcing it to recommendations of the Defence Procurement filling the voids come out with a simple, unambiguous, timebound Procedure Review committee set up under the in India’s defence and efficient DPP aimed at filling the voids in India’s chairmanship of DG Aqn in August 2019, by the preparedness defence preparedness in the shortest possible www.geopolitics.in February 2021 67

INDIA 2021 IAF categorisations required thus simplifying the procurement procedure. Rudram-1 anti- Defence Minister with the following terms of Promote use of indigenous raw material radiation missile being reference: While the intent is good, for most mission critical successfully test-  Remove procedural bottlenecks & hasten requirements, Indian raw material falls way below launched from an Indian the MILGRADE specifications of raw materials Air Force Sukhoi-30MKI acquisitions. produced in developed countries. fighter bomber on  Optimise life cycle support. Leverage in house indigenous software expertise October 9, 2020  Greater participation of Indian Industry for Software companies survive on month on month/ quarter to quarter revenues and will not be able to The process of robust defence industrial base. sustain the huge delays in payments and upfront deciding IC on  Examine & incorporate new concepts. investments without any assurance of returns. Even cost basis is itself  Promote Indian startups and R&D. software giants like Infosys, TCS, WIPRO and HCL flawed and lends  Support ‘Make in India’ initiative. do not participate in defence programmes for this itself to fudging reason alone. by vendors. Some of the novel provisions that have been Introduction of MAKE-1 (70 percent funding by MoD Certifications by introduced into the DAP-2020 are tabulated below with a cap of `250 crore), MAKE-2 (100 percent funding CFO/CS of prime along with observations of the author against each: by Industry) and MAKE-3 (Indigenous Manufacture) and sub vendors Increase in Indigenous content in ‘Buy’ categorisation categorisations. is not going to of procurements, definition of Indian company and  DPSU and private industry have both burnt change this methodology for verification of indigenous content.  The process of deciding IC on cost basis is itself their fingers in the three major programmes Viz. TCS, BMS and FICV under the MAKE-1 flawed and lends itself to fudging by vendors. categorisation (introduced in DPP-2008 with 80 Certifications by CFO/CS of prime and sub percent MoD funding). BMS and FICV have been vendors is not going to change this. Further, retracted despite significant investments having the current system allows the IC to change been made by industry in these programmes. between the time of bidding and the placement  The cap of `250 Cr funding to each DA in of the contract due to FE variations – thus Make-1 is too less and will restrict indigenous IC compliance at the bidding stage may well development of critical technologies which become non-compliant at the bid opening/ require a far higher budget. As an example, the contract stage. proto development budgets of TCS, BMS and  The solution is for MoD to unambiguously FICV were in the range of `2.5K Cr to `4K Cr. indicate in the RFP, the critical technologies Though the DAP allows for increasing the cap, required to be owned by Indian industry for that getting waivers would be a herculean and time- particular tender along with level of ownership consuming task. i.e. production level, SKD level or CKD level  Further, the provision of including OFB as for hardware and license/source code level for the third DA (If in the fray) defies logic and is software. inconsistent with the principles of level playing  The bidding vendor only needs to certify this field. at the time of TEC and NCNC and physical  The requirements of MAKE-2 are not in sync verification can be done during deliveries by the with the professed intent of involving MSMEs contracted vendor. in defence procurement. The large upfront  Further, no foreign OEM will part with investments, stringent ‘March in’ clauses for IPR, technology till there is a significant assured no guarantee on orders and allowing nominated order quantity. Hence, at the NCNC trial stage agencies to also participate in the competitive undertaking from the vendor that the desired tenders is a huge disincentive. IC will be provided if contracted for the tender,  While Make-3 category will certainly boost should suffice. industrial output and employment it is unlikely This will also reduce the number of to promote ownership of critical technologies as these will be restricted to BTP (Build To Print) or BTS (Build To Specs). Improved offset guidelines  Considering that our offset revenues till date have been negligible, increasing the offset limit from `300 Cr to `2000 Cr is baffling.  Making offsets applicable only to contracts involving purchase of material from foreign vendors in competitive bids is a no brainer. This absolves all G2G arms imports via the FMS (Foreign Military Sales) route from their offset 68 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 obligations. This will only incentivise the arms INDIAN NAVY Kh-35 Uran anti-ship missiles import lobby to urge the foreign OEMs they procured by India from represent to stop participating in competitive should be done based on CoC (Certificate of Russia tenders and lobby for/support G2G sales. The Conformance) from accredited labs for both foreign OEMs will laugh all the way to the bank imported and indigenous equipment. QT Software at the expense of Indian defence industry. and AT should only be carried out where such companies  A higher offset multiplier to DRDO and DPSUs certificates are not available. survive on is a violation of level playing field and a huge  Where all vendors are non-compliant to an RFP month on month/ disincentive to private industry including parameter(s) then such parameter(s) should be quarter to quarter MSMEs. waived by the DG of the concerned service HQ. revenues and The vexed issue of defence offsets just got more  Also, there is no reduction in the number will not be able vexed. agencies involved in the evaluation and to sustain the SQR formulation acceptance process. huge delays Industry bodies like CII, FICCI, PHD Chambers New chapters on ICT and post-contract management in payments etc. have been excluded from the SQR formulation These are welcome measures. However, the chapter and upfront process despite being major stakeholders in defence on ICT procurements lacks objectivity and has investments acquisitions. This lack of trust in industry, especially many onerous clauses and will be covered in a without any private defence industry has been the bane of separate paper by the author. assurance of defence procurements for over two decades. MoD On the upside, the DAP-2020 surely has some has to treat private Iidustry as equal partners if it has welcome industry friendly measures such as returns to achieve its professed aim of ‘ Atmanirbharta’ in reduction in BG (Bank Guarantee) requirements defence preparedness. and, price variation clause for long delivery Restructuring of RFP programmes etc. and the MoD should be lauded for  There should be zero tolerance to RFP this. retractions. The draconian provision in all RFPs Conclusion allowing withdrawal of RFP without assigning Does the DAP-2020: any reasons and at any stage of procurement (a) Address the infirmities of the previous versions continues. of DPP?  Timelines and ownership for delays have not (b) Ensure speedy defence procurements? been unambiguously indicated in the RFP. (c) Simplify the Defence Procurement Procedure?  RFPs continue to be cast in iron without any (d) Fix ownerships and accountability for delays in flexibility to accommodate changes. procurements?  Some suggestions to obviate the above are: (e) Offer a level playing field to private industry?  Having a pre-RFP vendor meeting to It requires no rocket science to guess the answers to all the above questions. Whether the terminology obtain consensus of all vendors on the RFP change from Defence ‘Procurement’ Procedure parameters. The RFP is then frozen and to Defence ‘Acquisition’ Procedure is simply issued. semantics, or it will usher in a mindset change from  If some changes are required to the RFP after MoD that going forward it means business as far its issue and all vendors are agreeable to as ‘Atmanirbharta’ in Defence Procurements are the changes, then such changes should be concerned,- only time will tell. implemented by the concerned DG at the The author is a Combat Network architect and a Service HQ. keen strategic affairs observer with special interest in  Since RFPs generally flow out of RFIs there should be a penal provision on vendors who defence procurements make tall claims in the RFIs but are either non- compliant or do not respond to the RFP.  The detailed trial directive should be issued along with the RFP as mandated by the DPP. Currently only the broad trial evaluation methodology is given in the RFPs.  Changes in foreign export laws should come under the ambit of Force Majeure. Improvements/simplification in trial procedure  Since it has significant cost implications, the detailed trial directive should be issued with the RFP itself. Doing it post TEC results in scope creep and additional financial burden on the vendors who have already submitted their commercial bids.  To cut down the procurement timeframes, environmental and EMI/EMC validations www.geopolitics.in February 2021 69

INDIA 2021 EVERGREEN RUSSIAN FACTOR IN EVOLUTION OF IAF AMIT COWSHISH argues why it is hard to ignore the Russian factor in India’s military capability 92N2 radar unit Despite the threat of US sanctions reliance on Russian defence equipment which of Russian-made looming over India’s $5.5 billion presently arms over 60 percent of its services, will S-400 air defence import of five Russian Almaz-Antey not only be sustained but will further proliferate, system S-400 Triumf self-propelled surface- as India struggles to modernise its forces to meet to-air (SAM) missile systems, it is security challenges in the neighbourhood. improbable that India will dump Russia as its most reliable materiel provider. If anything, the The camaraderie that has evolved between the defence establishments of the two countries over VITALY V KUZMIN 70 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 the past six decades also remains robust, despite Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) in The several irritants, including India’s increasingly Bengaluru. In an unusual move, the first lot of camaraderie sourcing of newer equipment from alternate MiG-21 fighters were supplied to the IAF some sources in France, Israel and the US. But the US, it five years before they entered service with the that has seems, is seeking to dent these symbiotic ties that Soviet air force. These fighters arrived at a critical evolved successfully weathered the storm caused by the juncture for India when it was boosting its between Soviet Union’s disintegration in the early 1990s military capability after its ignominious defeat in the defence and the consequent dispersal of its vast military- the 1962 border war with China over a territorial establishments industrial complex into many Republics, several dispute that remains unresolved. of India and of them inimical to Russia. Russia over six Over succeeding decades HAL license built decades, also Senior US officials, including Kenneth some 700-odd MiG-21 variants, but sadly nearly remains robust Juster, the outgoing US envoy to New Delhi, half of them were lost in accidents in which recently indicated the possibility of Washington scores of pilots died, prompting the local media invoking the four-year old Countering America’s to christen them as the IAFs ‘flying coffins’. Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) But even this harsh moniker did not obfuscate against India for acquiring the S-400 air the reality that these MiG-21s were the most defence systems for the Indian Air Force (IAF). operationally competent and economical fighters Other Russian equipment like combat aircraft, of their generation that served the IAF well by helicopters, warships, nuclear-powered attack giving a good account of themselves in all three submarines (SSNs) and small arms, varied wars with Pakistan in 1965, 1971, and once again missiles and munitions, amongst others, too in the mountainous Kargil region in Kashmir, in make Indian vulnerable to the US sanctions. 1999. CAATSA is the US response to Russia’s 2014 It is remarkable that some six squadrons annexation of Crimea and alleged interference or around 110-odd upgraded Fishbed MiG- in the US presidential elections two years later. 21’Bison’-93 were thereafter commissioned into The Act applies to 39 Russian entities covering IAF service 2002 onwards, at a cost of around almost its entire defence industry and associated `200 million each after being fitted with Russian, organisations. French and Israeli avionics and weapon kits. Nearly two decades later these retrofitted MiG- Ever since CAATSA became law in August 21 Bis fighters were part of a formidable IAF 2017, the US has maintained that India formation that engaged the Pakistan Air Force inducting the S-400 would ‘jeopardise’ military (PAF) in a dogfight over Kashmir in February 2019. interoperability by ‘compromising’ its platforms One of them reportedly downed an advanced in service with the Indian military. So far, the US enemy US-origin F-16 combat aircraft, before has invoked CAATSA against Turkey and China itself being shot down with its pilot bailing out for having acquired two S-400 systems each, safely. But the fighters are now nearing the end of though the extent and scope of these sanctions their Total Technical Life (TTL) and around five remain somewhat nebulous. squadrons face retirement next year onwards. The US has also divested Turkey, a NATO ally, The MiG-21s were succeeded by single-engine of its involvement in Lockheed Martin’s F-35 joint MiG-23BN/UB Flogger ‘swing wing’ variants in strike fighter programme. A statement from the the early 1970s, of which the IAF inducted four White House imposing CAATSA upon Ankara squadrons, or around 70 aircraft. The MiG-23s in July 2019 stated that the F-35 ‘cannot coexist were the first Soviet fighters to field a look-down/ with a Russian intelligence platform that will be shoot-down radar, and to be armed with beyond used to learn about its (the fighters) advanced visual range (BVR) missiles. License built by capabilities’. The US applies similar logic to India HAL, these fighters were effectively employed which operates a slew of US military platforms like during the 1971 and 1999 wars with Pakistan, C-17 and C-130J-30 transport aircraft and Apache before the bulk of them were retired in 2009. A attack and Chinook heavy-lift helicopters. handful remained in service afterwards but were totally phased out eight years later in 2017. India, for its part, has reacted cautiously to the prospect of CAATSA’s imposition, as it realises The MiG-27 Flogger D/J fighter-bombers- Russia’s near-indispensability in providing it essentially an advanced MiG-23-followed, with defence equipment. The bulk of the existing some 165 of them being license-built by HAL at inventory of all the three services is of Russian- its Nashik facility 1985 onwards. According to and earlier Soviet- origin. This is best illustrated some IAF officers who operated these MiG-27s, by the history of acquisitions of aircraft by the IAF the fighters could effectively ‘swing’ their wings over the past six decades from the Soviet Union/ from 16 degrees to an unbelievable 72 degrees, Russia and, more importantly, the role played by depending on the mission, giving the tactical those aircraft in various military operations. ground attack platforms impressive operational flexibility. As further proof of their operational In one of the earliest deals in 1961 India lethality the MiG-27s could also carry four tonnes imported the first lot of MiG-21 Fishbed Type of deliverable ordnance. 64 single-engine ground attack fighters for the IAF, designed by the Mikoyan-Gurevich Design The IAF successfully deployed MiG-27s Bureau, in addition to signing a contract for during the Kargil operations, where they their licensed production by the public sector www.geopolitics.in February 2021 71

INDIA 2021 A retired Milkoyan- WIKIMEDIA COMMONS Gurevich MiG-21 jet fighter Russian released rockets and bombs accurately on when its pilot flew faster than Mach 3 over equipment enemy positions in mountainous terrain above Pakistani territory at a height of over 20,000m. like combat 15,000 feet. The MiG-27s also played a seminal Unfortunately for the IAF, the MiG-25 broke aircraft, role during Operation Parakram, the Indian the sound barrier whilst flying over Pakistan warships, and military’s mass mobilisation on the western alerting the PAF to its presence. Pakistan small arms, borders with Pakistan in 2001-02, following the claimed that the reconnaissance platform had amongst strike on India’s parliament by five Pakistan- secretly photographed strategic installations others, too trained gunmen that almost nudged the rival near its capital Islamabad, an allegation India, make Indian nuclear-armed neighbours to war yet again. expectedly denied. The MiG-25s were retired in vulnerable 2006 after nearly a quarter century of intense to the US Thereafter, around two MiG-27 squadrons of operational deployment along India’s unresolved sanctions around 40 platforms were upgraded by HAL 2005 frontiers with Pakistan and China. onwards to MiG-27ML standards by fitting them with advanced Russian and Israeli weaponry, In a subsequent quantum technological leap, avionics, pilot-friendly cockpits and electronic the IAF began inducting the twin-engine MiG- warfare (EW) suites. But their safety record 29B/S ‘Fulcrum’ fighters and MiG-29UB trainers remained questionable and in 2010 the entire in 1986 that remain in service. Presently, the MiG-27 fleet, then numbering around 80-90, IAF operates three MiG-29 squadrons of some was grounded for an extended period following 60-odd aircraft, most of which have recently a series of accidents. Their number-plating, or been upgraded to MiG-29UPG standards under retirement, began soon after, and the last MiG-27 a `38.42 billion retrofit executed jointly by JSC ML squadron retired in December 2019. Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG, HAL and the IAF’s Base Repair Depot (BRD) at Nashik. Meanwhile in 1981, the IAF inducted the classified MiG-25RB Foxbat, supersonic The upgrade includes equipping the fighters interceptor and reconnaissance aircraft, locally with a new Phazatron Zhuk-ME phased array nicknamed Garud, after the mythological bird- radar to replace the existing N-109 radar, aerial like creature, which operated at undetectable refuelling capability, armaments like the Vympel altitudes of over 23,000m (74,000 ft). Amongst R-77 (AA-12 'Adder') air-to-air missiles, and the fastest and most elusive military aircraft of cockpit upgrade, which many experts claim its generation, the MiG-25 was one of the few that brings the MiG-29UPG to the level of a fourth- was primarily built of stainless steel. It was also generation fighter. The retrofit also extends the last combat aircraft designed by the legendary the fighters’ airframe life to 3,500 hours or the Mikhail Gurevich before his retirement. equivalent of 40 years of operational service. The IAF acquired just 10 MiG-25s that To further boost the IAF’s depleted fighter were operated by the IAF for conducting squadrons-down from a sanctioned strength reconnaissance sorties over Pakistan during the of 42 to around 29 squadrons- India’s Ministry Kargil war and throughout Parakram. Earlier, of Defence (MoD) is presently in advanced in May 1997 one IAF MiG-25 caused a storm negotiations with Russia to procure an additional 72 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 squadron of 21 ‘mothballed and unassembled’ WIKIMEDIA MiG-29 fighters. Their reported purchase price of around `60 billion includes the cost of weapon to export the BrahMos to ‘friendly countries’ like BrahMos supersonic cruise systems, training and other support equipment Vietnam, Philippines, the United Arab Emirates missiles on display required for a new fighter squadron.Their retrofit, amongst others, and is believed to have concluded expected to duplicate that of the MiG-29UPG all formalities and intellectual property rights In one of the platforms, will also include fitting the second- (IPR) protocols with Russia to enable it to do so. earliest deals hand fighters with new Klimov RD-33 engines in 1961 India with digital fuel injection and an all-glass cockpit. And though in aggregate the IAF also operates imported the three French Mirage-2000H and six Anglo-French first lot of MiG- A decade after inducting MiG-29s the IAF SEPECAT Jaguar squadrons and is in the process 21 Fishbed made yet another quantum capability leap of acquiring two squadrons of 36 Dassault Rafale Type 64 single- around 1996-97 by acquiring multi-role Sukhoi Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA), engine ground Su-30 Flanker multi-role fighters that today Russian-origin fighters will continue to constitute attack fighters constitute the backbone of the IAF’s combat fleet. the force’s mainstay for the next decade, if The force initially acquired 40 Sukhoi Su30Ks for not longer. The IAF’s innovative capability in for IAF $1.8 billion, followed by three deals to license equipping these Russian fighters with avionics, build 222 of the advanced Su-30 MKI(India) radar, weaponry, and assorted force multipliers variant at HAL’s Nashik plant. Configured to secured from multiple sources also enhances IAF specifications, the Su-30MKIs that integrate these fighters’ operational envelope. indigenously developed avionics systems with French and Israeli sub-systems and weaponry, Additionally, the IAF also operates Russian/ will eventually number around 272, making Soviet four-engine Ilyushin IL-76 and twin- them the IAF’s largest single fighter type for a engine turbo-prop Antonov An-32 transporters, long time to come. which are presently undergoing an upgrade to An-32 RE standards, to keep them operational However, of these 272, around 260 are for another 15-20 years. The IAF also operates presently in service, with the remaining 12-odd six Ilyushin IL 78 Multi-Role Tanker Transport fighters scheduled for delivery to the IAF by the (MRTT) aircraft, from its base at Agra, but these year-end, or by early 2022. In the recent months, have had a consistently poor availability record the MoD has opened negotiations with Russia for and are likely to soon be replaced. an additional 12 Su-30MKIs to replace those lost in accidents. These too are to be built by HAL. Over decades, Russia has also notched up impressive sales of rotary-wing platforms to the Alongside, the IAF has been pursuing plans IAF, which acquired four Mi-26s Halo heavy-lift to upgrade a ‘significant’ number of Su-30MKIs helicopters for Rs 814.20 million between 1986 to ‘Super Sukhoi’ status by fitting them with and 1989. But these have recently been phased 5thgeneration fighter features. The proposed out, replaced by 15 Boeing CH-47F Chinook upgrade led by Irkut Corporation that designed platforms which began arriving in early 2019. the Su-30, is likely to include a new cockpit, radar and assorted stealth features to render the Su- The IAF also acquired 151 twin-engine Mil Mi 30MKI a 4++ generation fighter. The planned 17 V-5 Hip medium lift helicopters between 2008 retrofit, delayed by the IAF, seemingly due and 2016 for around $2.87 billion, of which 139 primarily to a financial resource crunch, would also enable the fighters to carry a heavier weapon payload, including the Indo-Russian developed BrahMos (Air) cruise missile variant with a 292 km range. In January 2020, the IAF commissioned its first Su-30MKI squadron armed with BrahMos (A) for a maritime strike role at Thanjavur Air Force Station. The IAF’s recently resurrected No. 222 ‘Tiger Sharks’ Squadron is expected to soon operate its full complement of 18 Su-30MKIs, of which eight fighters would be armed with the 2.5 ton air launched BrahMos(A). The induction of the BrahMos (A)-armed Su-30MKIs at Thanjavur follows three successful test firings of the missile system from the Russian multi-role fighter since November 2017. The IAF aims to ultimately arm around 42 of its 272 Su-30MKIs with BrahMos (A) missiles, increasing their operational lethality. The BrahMos’ land and ship-launched versions have been in service with the Indian Army (IA) and Indian Navy (IN) for over a decade, while the submarine-launched variant is undergoing advanced trials. India also plans www.geopolitics.in February 2021 73

INDIA 2021 An Indian Air Force MiG- WIKIPEDIA 27 ground attack aircraft in flight Unfettered were weaponised versions, and the remaining nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) leased transfer of 12 for use by the Home Ministry and India’s for 10 years till 2022. And in March 2019 the IN technology to paramilitary forces. Soon after, in July 2018 the confirmed a $3 billion agreement with Russia to India reinforces MoD concluded negotiations for 48 additional lease a similar 8,140-tonne SSN for 10 years 2025 Russia’s Mi 17 V-5s for $ 1.1 billion as replacements for onwards. criticality to the Mi-8 Pratap helicopters, 107 of which were India’s military inducted into the IAF between 1971 and 1988. Russia has also provided assistance in requirements, The Mi-17 V-5s also augmented the fleet of 90 designing the IN’s four Arihant-class nuclear- CAATSA or no Mi-17IVs acquired in the late 1990s and provided powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) and CAATSA close air support to ground troops during the know-how to miniaturise their 83MW reactors. Kargil war. However, the handful of Mil Mi-25/35 Growing international competition for India’s attack helicopters, first inducted into service burgeoning defence market has prompted Russia between 1983 and 1990 have all retired and been to widen its co-operation into new sectors where replaced by 22 Boeing AH-64E Apache Guardian it has no rivals like strategic weapons and related attack helicopters. technologies. This overwhelming Russian contribution to In conclusion, given the predominance of the IAF’s air power, is matched in equal measure the Russian factor in India’s military capability, by the inventories of India’s other two services. it seems unlikely that India can be ‘weaned’ The bulk of the IA’s 4,500-odd main battle tanks, away from this symbiotic relationship. It is also for instance, are Russian-origin T72 Ajeya’s and questionable if that will be in India’s long-term T90S Bhishma’s as are its 2,700 BMP1/2 Sarath strategic interest. infantry combat vehicles. A large proportion of the army’s air defence, numerous missile systems Besides this, three fundamental reasons and precision guided munitions are Russian, and seem to dominate India’s preference for Russian the two sides are reportedly poised to conclude materiel: it is relatively cheap, hardy-capable a contract for over 750,000 Kalashnikov Ak-203 of operating in extreme temperatures in the 7.62x45mm assault rifles, the bulk of which will Himalayas and the Rajasthan desert region and, be license-built. above all, familiar to succeeding generations of the Indian servicemen. Nearly unfettered The IN’s frontline platforms too are Russian. transfer of technology to India for licensed Its sole carrier the 46,000-tonne INS Vikramaditya manufacture of varied platforms and equipment (ex-Admiral Gorshkov), is a refurbished Kiev- over decades, also reinforces Russia’s criticality class platform which, in turn, has Fulcrum-D to India’s military requirements for several MiG-29K/KuB’s as its air arm. In fact, the IN decades: CAATSA or no CAATSA. is the only other navy other than Russia’s to operate MiG-29Ks. The IN also fields nine Type Amit Cowshish is a former Financial Advisor 877EKM ‘Kilo’-class variant submarines and INS (Acquisition), Ministry of Defence and Consultant, Chakra, a Project 971 Shchuka-B ('Akula')-class Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi 74 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 ATTACK FROM ABOVE: THE LOITERING MUNITIONS IAI Harop loitering munition in flight IAI Attack drones and loitering munitions are likely to be used in close conjunction on the battlefield and Israel remains a leader in the export of the former, writes C SANTHOSH Loitering munitions could prove a vital loitering munition, with deliveries following in battlefield edge to the Indian armed 2011. forces in any future conflict. With their ability to engage targets at long-range, The Harop is a standoff loitering attack provide extended loiter times with man- weapon system designed to locate and precisely in-the-loop targeting and engagement capability attack targets. These munitions can stay in with ability to abort an attack and deliver a the air for up to nine hours and attain a max continuous, persistent threat to enemy targets. loiter speed of 225 Knots. With a 16kg warhead There is no doubt that loitering munitions will such munitions can engage a target with <1m be a game changer on the future battlefield and precision from any angle - horizontal to vertical. their ability to combine situational awareness In this weapon system, the Harop Loitering with target engagement capability will be a vital Missile (LM) type platform serves as an Electro- addition to ground units. The Indian Air Force Optically (EO) guided attack weapon. Ground- (IAF) had pioneered use of loitering munitions, based launchers are used for Harop LM launches, when it purchased Israeli Aerospace Industries which are then controlled via a two-way data (IAI) Harpy attack drones post 2005. This was link for full man-in-the-loop operation. Harop followed by an order in 2010 for IAI’s Harop is used to attack high-value targets, including full mission capabilities, from search, through www.geopolitics.in February 2021 75

INDIA 2021 IAI Harpy suicide drone IAI developed by Israel attack and up to battle damage assessment. system should have capability to loiter above the The Harop is a Combining characteristics of a missile and a target, detect targets, enable real time decision standoff loitering making and destroy selected personnel and soft attack weapon UAV, Harop enables effective mission execution skinned targets. The loiter munition system system designed without relying on other external systems for should be able to operate at a flight endurance targeting and mission intelligence. Harop LMs of at least 30 minutes and a range of not less than to locate and are programmed before launch by the Ground 15 km at Line of Sight (LOS). It should be able to precisely attack Control System (GCS) to autonomously fly to a operate upto an altitude of 4500m (AMSL) and not targets. These pre-defined “Holding Area”, where they loiter. less than 300m (AGL). The requirement called for munitions can The MCS periodically checks their position and a loitering munition system that could function stay in the air for status during the route to the “Holding Area”. in all weather conditions and be able to detect up to nine hours Several Harop LMs that loiter over a “Holding targets by day and night (thermal capable). The and attain a max Area” and the operator can select one LM for total weight of the loitering weapon system has loiter speed of 225 target search and attack, while the others are been requested to not be more 20 kg and should monitored periodically. The operator uses the be operable with a one/two personnel crew. Knots video image to select a target, and then directs It should be controlled by a ground controller the selected LM to the target area to attack it. with a data link established with the loiter The Harop tracks the target and then dives munition system. Each ground control station on it, detonating the warhead upon impact. If should include a ruggedised handheld display, required, the attack can be aborted, and the communication system, antenna and tripod. operator can re-attack with the same LM. One ground control station should be able to Army looks for loitering munitions control multiple loiter munitions as per the army The Indian Army is also looking to speed up the requirement. induction of loitering munition systems and issued a Request for Information (RFI) in May Keeping in mind emerging Indian 2020 towards the same. As per the RFI, a tentative requirements for loitering munitions which date for issue of a Request for Proposal (RFP) had could be the largest in the world, foreign OEMs been set for September 2020. Approximately 100 are also looking to partner with Indian firms Loiter Munition Systems have been requested for for their production in India. PALM (Precision with deliveries of all 100 systems to be concluded Attack Loitering Munition) Hero Systems is one within 18 months of contract signature. The such Joint Venture (JV) and was announced in requirement called for a man portable platform the run-up to Defexpo 2020. The JV is between with sensors integrated with munition which UVision Air Ltd. – a global leader in the area of can perform surveillance tasks by day and night loitering munitions systems and Indian firm and also execute pinpoint strikes with lethal Aditya Precitech, an Indian company. PALM munition. The loiter munition system should Hero Systems will undertake manufacture operate at a range of not less than 15km. The and marketing of loitering munitions in India. 76 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 The Israeli firm’s entire PALM Hero series of US ARMY XM501 US prototype capable Lethal Loitering Systems was showcased at of launching LAM (loitering Defexpo with the high-precision PALM Hero-30 is the sole preserve of the US, which has been attack munition) and the Long-Range PALM Hero-400EC being hamstrung by export restrictions in this arena, highlighted as new PALM Hero-120 a modular, which have blocked export growth. Jordan, the The erstwhile customisable loitering weapon system. The United Arab Emirates and Iraq had all initially Trump company is also offering an advanced, user- sought to purchase US-made drones, but the friendly simulation system for training forces Obama regime did not approve these sales. administration on Hero systems, thus avoiding the costs, risks had decided and constraints inherent in live-fire missions. The erstwhile Trump administration had to relax export UVision Air offers a range of advanced loitering decided to relax export restrictions on specific restrictions munitions systems (Hero-20, Hero-30, Hero- types of high-end American Unmanned Aerial on specific 70, Hero-120, Hero-250, Hero-400EC, Hero-900, Systems (UAS) through a reinterpretation of the types of high- Hero-1250) which are designed for different Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), end American missions at various ranges using warheads of where policymakers would consider large drone Unmanned various types. exports on a case-by-case basis. Advanced armed Aerial Systems Chinese developments US military UAS have been sold only to a few (UAS) through a The Chinese military is now looking at procuring close allies. Other sales were denied due to the reinterpretation two types of loitering munitions, also known as American interpretation of the MTCR agreement, of the Missile suicide drones, a genre of weapon that can offer a which classified large drones as cruise missiles. Technology wide variety of new tactics to the troops. Chinese As per the original US interpretation of the MTCR, Control Regime arms companies have already developed many export of armed UAVs capable of traveling greater types of suicide drones, including the CH- than 300 kilometers with a payload of more than (MTCR) 901 and WS-43. The CH-901 is 1.2 meters long, 500 kgs were subject to the “strong presumption weighs 9 kg, has a top speed of 150 kilometers an of denial.” As per new US policy, military drones hour, an operation radius of 15 kilometers and flying at speeds below 800 kph will no longer be an endurance of 120 minutes. The WS-43 can be subject to the “presumption of denial” that was launched from a rocket launcher, has a range of in place earlier. 60 kilometers and can then stay above its target for 30 minutes. Such drones can remain in the A new and growing entrant into this market air for an extended period of time performing is China, which offers drones in almost all battlefield reconnaissance and surveillance like segments but at a fraction of the price of American a drone. or European products. Pakistan, Myanmar, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and However, these suicide drones have a dual Nigeria all rank as buyers of high-end Chinese role, in that after locating a target, it can launch drones. The three countries above which were a suicide attack like a missile. Some of these denied American drones eventually ended up suicide drones can return to base for future purchasing Chinese drones.  redeployment if a target cannot be found. Such munitions could be especially useful in attacking time-sensitive targets. Suicide drones can fly to a general area in advance, seek the target while loitering and engage the target immediately when it is found. A similar mission using a missile would require time to launch and travel, resulting in a missed opportunity. China also claims that such suicide drones are cheaper than an armed reconnaissance drone. Launching the suicide drone in advance also means that the enemy will have a harder time locating where it was launched from. Attack drones Attack drones and loitering munitions are likely to be used in close conjunction on the battlefield and Israel remains a leader in the export of the former. Israel’s first combat drone – Scout, flew in Lebanon as early as 1982 and the country currently accounts for 60 percent of global attack drone sales. In addition to India, other export customers for Israeli armed drones include Russia, South Korea, Australia, France, Germany, Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Mexico and Singapore. The high-end segment of this market www.geopolitics.in February 2021 77

INDIA 2021 Interspect UAS B 3.1 Flying Laboratory UNMANNED AERIAL SYSTEMS: BAKO GABOR TACTICAL RUAS IN INDIAN SUBCONTINENT The RUAS platform is a very complex one with even more complex payloads to cater for a variety of ISR functions. Hence, the industry has to step up in order to meet this requirement in terms of ‘Make in India’ or under licenced production under the latest DAP-2020, writes JAJATI MOHANTY Unmanned Air Systems (UAS) have Why unmanned systems? become a common denominator The most favourable aspect of the unmanned among the forces around the world system is the cost of the platform viz a viz a where the emphasis is placed on manned platform. These platforms can be observation of events, accumulation manufactured, delivered and maintained at of data, collation & transfer of data and strategic much lower cost than manned platforms which decision making. The availability of real time have higher cost of engines, airframes, fuel information in today’s battle sphere/ battlefield utilisation and cost of pilot being present in the is the most important aspect and has the ability platform itself namely issues of safety, training, to change the course of events and history. The coordination, ground and air support. Hence evolution of unpiloted vehicles has come a long the unmanned platforms are able to undertake way based on the military conflicts and the similar missions as manned platforms with the tactical capability in terms of the technological added benefit of no loss of life. Some other aspects enhancement in defence system. which have also contributed immensely to their 78 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 meteoric rise in numbers are possibility of long 1000m Bayraktar Mini UAV used by flight span, flight repeatability due to improved  Tactical UAS weighs anything between 150- Turkish land forces autopilots, lesser operational cost at squadron levels, enhanced mission security in terms of 1500kgs, has a flight time of 4-12 hrs and “lesser know the better”. The advantage of using operates at elevations of 3000-8000m unmanned platforms is tabulated below:  MALE Medium Altitude Long Endurance UAS  Flights in risky environment and conditions weighs between 1500-2500kgs, has a flight  Longer air flight time time of 12-24 hrs and operates at elevations of  Task flexibility and diversity 3000-8000m  Extremely low cost of operation as compared  HALE High Altitude Long Endurance UAS weighs between 2500-5000kgs, has a flight to manned flight time of 10-20 days (maybe more) and operates  Capability to gather information on the at elevations from 8000-25,000m The complete gambit of UAS as indicated ground and deploy armament based on above can be utilised/ exploited for a plethora of tactical situation roles in the military and the civilian sector. Based  Ability to undertake task of force/ convoy/ on the requirement the customer chooses the battlegroup protection unmanned systems in a manner to optimise the  Capability to use proportionate power data generated and the cost incurred. Hence one  Identify the hotspot and neutralise with least sees the HALE being operated over longer period collateral damage and covering a large expanse to give a strategic However, it is not that the unmanned picture for the decision makers. Thereafter, platforms come without any limitations and we find that the UAS are used based on the they do limit the utilisation of these platforms in battlespace management or battlespace tactical present day battlespace scenario: utilisation. It is for this reason that many armed  Limited capability to feel the environment forces use a variety of UAS from mini – small – and avoid medium as tactical platforms in order to gather  Adherence to data links (complete data and ensure the most optimised decision autonomous ability not yet reached) making. Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL)  Inability to compete with manned aircrafts forms another set of tactical UAS which does not  Effect of electronic warfare more on need any land strip to take off and land or catapult unmanned platforms launcher to take off with elaborate arrangements  Ineffective against air defence like nets for landing. Confinement of space plays  Asymmetric warfare some time away a very important role in the utilisation of these Taking into account the pros and cons of the kind of UAS. unmanned platforms, we will try to understand Tactical unmanned aerial systems the types of UAS available and how the tactical Tactical UAS are heavier systems weighing from UAS forms an important ingredient to future 150 kgs to 1500 kgs and operate at altitudes of battlespace management. 3000-8000m. This type or genre of UAS primarily Unmanned aerial platform types and character The unmanned aerial platforms generally consist of the aerial platform, the payload it carries, data link and the ground control station. Hence a devoted operator or ground controller is mandatory till the time we reach a stage where the complete flight would be autonomous including decision making at tactical situation based on artificial intelligence. Standard classification for unmanned systems with international acceptance is not available and each country makes its own classification in accordance with factors like altitude, endurance, take-off weight, size/ dimension, payload capacity etc. The classification generally (not statutory) followed in India for both military application and civil application unmanned aerial systems are as follows:  Micro Aerial Vehicles as the name suggests weighs less than 3 kgs, caters for flight time up to 30-60 min and elevation up to 250m  Mini Aerial Vehicles can weigh between 5-20kgs, has a flight time of 1-2 hrs and operates at elevations of 15-300m  Small UAS weighs 20-50kgs, has a flight time of 2-3hrs and operates at elevations of 300- www.geopolitics.in February 2021 WIKIMEDIA COMMONS 79

INDIA 2021 Photograph of mountainous supports military applications in various support Rotary UAS terrain taken by a military and primary roles. The word tactical is important The Rotary UAS, just like the fixed wing variety drone to understand in the context of military ,is composed of four major components i.e. the applications where tactics is used with a clear vehicle/ platform itself, the payload, the control purpose / mandate to aid the strategy at a higher station/ ground station and the data link. Rotary level. Hence, use of a tactical UAS has to be, “for a wing platforms have a wide variety of applications finite time, for a specific activity/requirement and due to their inherent capability for Vertical with measurable impact”. Therefore, based on the Take Off and Landing, hovering and slow speed tactical situation prevailing in the battlespace — operations. The added benefit of not needing a be it Air, Sea or Land; the tactical UAS can be sub- runway or ground facility for take-off (catapult) categorised into: and landing (net); reinforced by reduced cost and  Close range risk of development as compared to an inhabited  Short range platform has led to rapid expansion in rotary UAS.  Medium range  Long range This article does not claim to present any  High endurance exhaustive data / review on rotary concepts but  Combinations brief understanding of the categories of rotary wing platforms. In case the battlespace is spread over an extremely large area, the use of long range “Tilt Blade Tip Path Plane” is the most tactical UAS is seen where the satellite link forms widespread design category and an important aspect to avoid communication helicopter is the prime example of problems between ground station and the UAS. the design success. The design has The other tactical UAS are exploited based the main rotor being used for both lift on the range of the communication link and propulsion and the pitch & roll controls. the possibility of the endurance. Since both The blade TPP is tilted by using cyclic the fixed wing and the rotary wing UAS fall controls, changing the lift distribution into this category, it is very important for the over the rotor disc causing different tactical commander to use the most appropriate blade flapping. In addition to helicopter platform to benefit from the data for generating concept, we also see other concepts like decision making matrix and taking a mindful or Coaxial, Tip Jet, Intermeshing, etc. cognisant decision. Tactical UAS use a variety “Tilt Body” uses different rotors and of payloads in order to meet the situational the total aerodynamic force resulting awareness requirements like EO/IR, SAR, from their thrust can be tilted by communication relay, LiDAR, maritime radar, inclining the whole aircraft or the part ground penetrating radar etc. on which the rotors are fixed. This kind of design has resulted in concepts like Tandem Rotors, Quad Rotors, Multiple Rotors and Tail Sitters. “Tilt Rotor” has one or more rotor being tilted entirely i.e. their shaft is directly oriented in the direction in which the main force is produced. The tilt rotor functions as a pusher rotor at high speeds and like a classical anti torque rotor in low speeds. Some of the NAVY.MIL concepts here are Swivel TR, Ducted TR and 2TR/4TR. “Different Lift / Propulsion Devices” has the rotors being combined with fixed wings, propellers or other auxiliary propulsion. Rotors provide lift at low speeds and the fixed wings take over at high speeds. Some of the concepts here are Roto-dynes, Co-axial + Turbo-prop and Helicopter + Turbofan. “Special Cases like Rotor Wings” have the rotor itself becoming fixed wings for instance by stopping the rotor at high speeds or retracting the blades in a circular wing. Some of the concepts here are the stoppable motor and variable rotor radius. Given the wide variety of concepts, selecting the best suited for a certain kind of application is often challenging and not very straightforward. Some concepts are better suited for high speed operations and some excel in the low speed arena. 80 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 Hence flight performance for concept selection is been in naval operations for quite some time but An American soldier carefully studied along with flight safety, cost, they are limited to operate from the shore with assembles a RQ-11 Raven in maintainability, environmental impact, etc. the maritime command & control. However, with preparation for launch before homing on to the final design. the option of handshaking and communication / ground control centre on ship the FWUAS can be DEFENSELINK.MIL Thereafter, the design engineer has to work used for tactical ISR missions by the ship. But the on the pre-sizing of the design parameters like time is limited and does not provide the flexibility number of rotors, no of blades, radius, mean to the battle commander which is of paramount chord, rotational speed etc to cope with multi importance. variable multi objective optimisation problem under constraints (design rules, operational Smaller fixed wing options are also available constraints, air worthiness regulations, etc.). in the market from Boeing, Aeronautics etc Among the various categories of the rotary but come with the added baggage of launcher platforms and the design concepts within each, and landing gears (net or line). The tactical the most seen options for UAS have been the commander in addition to the requirement of helicopter version and the quadcopter version. situational awareness has to constantly bother Rotary UAS in tactical role Rotary UAS are proliferating a wide field of applications related to both the military as well as the civilian sector. Many governmental organisations- both military and civil have recognised the importance and are dedicatedly working to transform their existing capabilities to exploit these concepts. However, technological capability, cost, operational requirement and tactical acceptance would greatly govern the commander’s decision to employ Rotary UAS in missions where manned platforms executed in the past. RUAS can be nomenclated based on “User Type” or the “Max Take-Off Weight” in order to segment into military, dual use and civilian applications. Hence in the RUAS area, the concept of design is not a criteria for segmenting the applications and it is more inclined towards the weight class or user type to find technical solutions with minimised cost, good interoperability and adequate performance. Market trend indicates that government, military and civilian customers adopt small RUAS mostly for land requirements while medium RUAS and large RUAS currently find limited application with military. The small UAS mainly conform to the quadcopter design and are capable of handling smaller payload with limited endurance. Hence, they form an important ingredient for ISR (Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance) for the tactical commander in the field (mountain ranges or desert or tropical contour). RUAS in the MTOW category of 200-300 kg have started getting immense traction among both military and civilian customers due to enhanced endurance as well as a wide variety of payload which they are capable of carrying. There are only a handful of manufacturers in this category and they use either the helicopter version or the switch mode of operation to cater for the VTOL concept. There are a variety of payloads being carried by these platforms and which forms the basis to shift from manned to unmanned operations. In the maritime domain, the interest in VTOL UAS design has gained momentum for shipborne applications. Though the fixed wing version have www.geopolitics.in February 2021 81

INDIA 2021 USAF maritime radar, thermal & optical cameras, lasers, LiDARs, communication relay, AIS, Northrop Grumman RQ-4 about the landing/retrieval of the UAS since the logistics drop, etc. Global Hawk surveillance UAV recovery percentage is not 100 percent. Though  Capability of automatic take-off and landing these UAS are able to carry different payloads under severe sea state conditions The Rotary like EO/IR and radar, weight constraints and  Integration with ship’s Combat Management UAS just aerodynamics makes them move at higher System like the fixed speeds & lesser payload capability which leads to  Safe/ encrypted data dissemination towards wing variety longer duration to map a given area as compared any known naval asset is composed to a slower moving platform. Tactically this is a  Encrypted data link and control of four major glaring deficiency since the platform is capable of With the capability of current day RUAS components being in the sky a little longer than the VTOL UAS from Schiebel, Saab, etc. able to meet the above i.e. the vehicle/ but has lesser effectiveness in terms of Time On requirements, tactical commanders have the platform itself, Task Output (TOTO), which is the basic essence option today to operate RUAS in combination the payload, the of ISR & CS. with the manned helicopters onboard ships and control station/ ensure 24x7 ISR & Combat Support. This is a ground station RUAS on the other hand can easily embark game changer in today’s naval operations where and the data on the ship and operate directly from there with the tactical commander constantly has eye in the minimal logistical impact. The RUAS integration sky well beyond the radar and optical horizon of link is very straight forward as a retrofit in ships the ship sensors. This capability is available at hangers (with the existing helicopter), small a much-reduced cost as compared to manned antennas which do not affect the overall RCS of platforms which need much higher maintenance the ship and even smaller ground control station and operational management. Hence, military which is capable of installation in a modular planners and government are waking up to this fashion in the Operations Room or the FLYCO. reduced operational financial budget allocation The introduction of RUAS into service over with higher/net gain in operational capability to the last decade into various maritime navies meet ISR and CS needs. reinforces the emerging trend of RUAS utility RUAS have not stagnated and have continued and acceptance as a force multiplier in the ISR to evolve with different kinds of payloads and domain. The RUAS industry forecast indicates operational requirements. In the Naval context that over the next one decade the proliferation of mine counter measure operations along with RUAS would be phenomenal for meeting tactical ships mine sweeping sorties is also being worked ISR requirements of naval fleets and coastal upon. This capability is being undertaken with patrol ships. use of sonobuoys as well as laser mine detection. Manned Un-Manned Teaming (MUM-T) is The naval application are very specific and another core area where the RUAS have ventured stringent where the UAS has meet the following: into and are successfully being deployed along  Minimisation of logistical footprint with other airborne manned platforms. This  5+ hours of flight endurance concept of operating an RUAS for ISR from the  Heavy fuel compatibility manned helicopter allows mission execution in  Integration with modular payloads like a collaborative way, so that operators of manned helicopters can devote time to high value activities crucial to mission success. Further, due to better situational awareness, MUM-T has a reduced risk profile for the manned asset. Nav ies a round t he world have a lso commenced operation of RUAS onboard amphibious carriers in order to provide the assault soldiers an eye in the sky and also for accurate shore softening by using the RUAS as a gun direction platform. Coast Guard has been using this platform for a variety of roles including anti-piracy, pollution monitoring, EEZ monitoring, offshore oil rigs patrolling and monitoring, etc. in addition to the coastal monitoring for anti-smuggling. The army has also woken up to the concept of VTOL UAS and understands the capability enhancements possible with use of these tactical RUAS in the role as gun direction platform for long & medium range artillery fire. The ability to provide ISR for armoured formations is a big tactical advantage for the battle commander. The possibility of communication relay to the complete formation of the tactical situation 82 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 around would provide adequate inputs for MOD UK cognisant decision making. The MUM-T concept from manned helicopters as well as crucial tools, ammunitions and food at the want of A Black Hornet Nano in flight, moving convoys is also gathering strength and a signal would any day bring a sense of relief in the showing its antenna manufacturers are working on customisation of mind of the tactical commander. India has gone their products to meet these kind of customer far ahead in terms of artillery capability having Logistics in specific requirements. its own Dhanush and ATAGS but to augment this the high battle with a RUAS platform as a gun director would grounds are Hence, it would not be out of context to take this capability a few steps ahead into the one of the most indicate that the future holds for RUAS from future. Availability of Apaches with the Air Force crucial factors medium to heavylift capability and all complex and shortly with the Army would provide a good missions in future would be managed optimally platform to move ahead on the MUM-T concept and RUAS with a combination of manned and unmanned which is going to be the mainstay for future. catering to RUAS usage. high altitude India’s need for Rotary UAS and how A&D needs to The RUAS platform is a very complex platform operations cope up with even more complex payloads to cater for a would change Unmanned Aerial Systems are extraordinary variety of ISR functions, hence the industry has to the scenario force multipliers and use of these assets by the step up in order to meet this requirement in terms of battlespace three services coupled with sharing of data of ‘Make in India’ or under licenced production logistics and strategic / tactical picture can quantumly under the latest DAP-2020. In order to have the management change the way battles are fought now that India right ecosystem to take on this kind of capability is looking towards Theatre-Based Commands. enhancement the industry needs the following: Setting up of CDS and the DMA would help in  Regulatory structure since these kinds of the standardisation of the UAS and encourage generation of single tactical and strategic picture platforms would be for dual use by military, rather than having individual pictures which paramilitary, government and civil agencies require stitching.  Government advisory for MRO and other technology-based requirements India has been exploiting UAVs namely  Business/transaction-based structure or Searcher and Herons procured from Israel effective implementation using the FDI for border monitoring on both the eastern as guidelines well as the western front. Navy too has been  Supply chain and manufacturing analysis operating these UAVs from coastal bases and of RUAS for implementation into defence exploiting them in the handshake mode to create corridors situational awareness picture for both the fleet as  Market and growth strategy for Global well as the maritime command centre. However, business from India the time has come to improve upon the existing  Military acquisition and offset guideline capability and move on to better platforms frame work culled out of DAP 2020 having combat capability, longer endurance and The writer is a retired submariner and presently better modular payload options. Towards the same, navy has already acquired long endurance working in the aerospace & defence sector sea area monitoring capability by leasing of MQ-9 drones from US which is a huge jump in ISR capability & tactical awareness. In addition, navy is also looking to enhance its ISR capability of the fleet at tactical level through procurement of shipborne UAS. It is expected that with the MH- 60R Multi Role Combat Helicopter joining the fleet, the ability to step up by moving to MUM-T with a RUAS is but obvious. Present geopolitical situation has called for 24x7 monitoring of our coastal areas particularly in the Andamans and the option of RUAS fills the gap very conveniently. Indian Army has also felt the need for tactical UAS for its formations in the east and the west and post-Galwan valley has dedicated worked towards a solution which has resulted in the current order for switch UAV for high altitude operations. This is being executed by an Indian firm Idea Forge and India needs more of this kind of rugged and innovative solutions. Logistics in the high battle grounds are one of the most crucial factors and RUAS catering to high altitude operations would change the scenario of battlespace logistic management. Availability of www.geopolitics.in February 2021 83

INDIA 2021 “TO LEASE OR NOT TO LEASE”- THAT IS THE QUESTION The cost of purchasing defence equipment is high and there have been attempts to ensure how best to get VFM (Value for Money) for defence requirements. Leasing, writes COL ANDREW FERNANDES (RETD) is one method of enhancing defence capability – possibly at a lesser cost – and this has been incorporated in the Defence Acquisition Procedure 2020 84 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 Defence Minister PIB capability to meet aspirations as also for defence It has been Rajnath Singh of our sovereignty has only increased with time. realized that unveiling Defence equipment always comes with a high the Defence price tag for various reasons which may or may not leasing is Acquisition be justifiable. Accordingly, there has always been one method Procedure an attempt to see how best to get VFM (Value for of enhancing Money) for defence requirements. (DAP)- 2020 in defence New Delhi In recent times, it has been realised that capability leasing is one method of enhancing defence possibly at a Defence Budget Management in any capability possibly at a lesser cost. The same has lesser cost. country, under normal circumstances, been incorporated in the Defence Acquisition The same is a complex and difficult exercise. Procedure 2020. In the next few paragraphs, the has been To the uninitiated, it is a matter of aspects of leasing and the pros and cons related incorporated expenditure without any income to the same will be analysed. Chapter 9 of DAP in the Defence or revenue in a world where monetary resources 2020 briefly analyses the issues, but there is a Acquisition are always at a premium, hence every attempt is need to have a greater understanding of the same. Procedure made to keep defence budgets as low as possible. Before proceeding further, it may be of interest to In the Indian context, the situation is even more reproduce the types of Leases being considered as 2020 complicated for the following reasons: given at Para 7 and 8 of Chapter 9 of DAP 2020  Socio economic development is a priority.  The existing geopolitical environment with “7. Types of Leases. SHQ, while examining the cases, may examine the applicability of unfriendly neighbours. appropriate lease type, from the following types,  The need for self-reliance in defence. with due justification:  The availability or rather non availability of a (a) Operating Lease. Lessee uses the asset defence industrial base. for a specific period. The lessor bears the risk of The net result is that over the years, the obsolescence. There is an option to either party availability of funds for capital expenditure is less to terminate the lease after giving notice. In case and less. However, the requirement to enhance of aircraft, an operating lease may be a Dry/Wet or Damp lease. Wet Lease is a leasing arrangement, where the Lessor provides the airplane, entire crew, maintenance and insurance to the Lessee. The lessee provides for fuel, duties, custom charges, taxes etc. and pays lease rental for hours operated. Dry Lease is a leasing arrangement, where the lessor provides the airplane without aircrew, ground staff, etc. (b) Conveyance Lease. A long period lease with clear intention of conveying the ownership of the title on the lease. At the end of a typical Conveyance Lease the ownership of the equipment will transfer to the MoD. This method provides for payment for equipment in instalments. (c) Specialised Service Lease. The lessor (owner) of the asset is a specialist of the asset. Lessor not only leases out the equipment but also provides specialised service to the lessee. 8. Examination of Lease Vs Acquisition. A lease involving military assets allows MoD to enter into a long-term commitment to pay for use of military assets over time and/or potentially acquire these assets at the end of the lease period. It is important that specific goals/objectives for acquiring assets on lease are clearly laid out, examined and understood in detail. This is necessary to finalise technical requirements, financial requirements as well as the desired duration of the lease. Where possible, these goals/objectives should be shared with the industry in RFI, LOR and RFP stages.” Whenever the Government of India is considering acquiring or leasing defence equipment, there is a need to ensure the way forward is least expensive. Accordingly, the following need to be analysed /considered:  Life-Cycle Cost. This has to be done using www.geopolitics.in February 2021 85

INDIA 2021 INS Chakra, an Akula-class INDIAN NAVY All of the above issues are the main factors when nuclear-powered attack considering whether to lease or buy. There are also submarine leased by the existing financial model tools to ensure a some additional factors that should be considered Indian Navy correct figure is reached for analysis and not depending on the type, cost, complexity, and taken in only present terms as is wont to do in estimated period of use of the equipment: When the Armed Forces.  Availability of purchase options. considering  Economic Life.  Potential use by other organisations within the a lease, a  Purchase Price. conscious  Taxes. framework of the Government after use by the decision, based  Insurance premiums if any. MoD. A case in point would be transfer to MHA on the type  Additional Services If any. Examples of for Homeland or border security. of equipment additional services include:  Disposition costs.  Repair and improvement costs (if included in  Trade-in or salvage value. and its lease payments).  Availability of servicing especially for highly requirement,  Operation and maintenance costs (if included complex equipment. has to be taken in lease payments). To revert to the title, To Lease or Not to Lease, it as to whether  Renewal Options. In determining the term of a would be prudent now to ascertain the advantages the intent is to lease, all renewal options shall be added to the and disadvantages of Purchasing and leasing purchase the initial lease period. respectively. equipment at When considering a lease, a conscious Capital purchase the conclusion decision, based on the type of equipment and The advantages of outright purchase of Capital of the lease its requirement, has to be taken as to whether Equipment can be summarised as follows: the intent is to purchase the equipment at the  It is a tried and trusted procedure followed over conclusion of the lease. While it is understood the decades since independence. that a large part of leasing would be operational  The system may have worked at a slow pace but leases only, in some cases, it may be prudent and has been steady over the years. financially more viable to go in for a conveyance  There is no requirement to go into what could lease or even an outright purchase. This is a case- be complicated lease agreement that would by-case evaluation of comparative costs and other need to stand up to legal scrutiny. factors and must be taken seriously to be effective.  There are no issues with regards to responsibility The factors to be considered are as follows: that may occur in case of lease agreements.  Length of equipment lease and extent of use.  Ownership is firm and final. It is for the user to  Financial & operational advantages of decide how and for how long he wants to use alternative types/makes of equipment. the equipment.  Cumulative rental payments for estimated Disadvantages of outright purchase period of use.  Due to various compulsions, political and  Net purchase price. economic, it is a long drawn-out process.  Transportation and installation costs.  Coupled with the time issue noted above, there  Maintenance and other service costs. is a massive strain on resources, especially in  Potential obsolescence of equipment because India, where financial resources for defence are of imminent technological improvements. always limited and large sums are required for capital procurement in a time frame that it is not possible to finalise due to various unrelated factors. Case in point is the purchase of Artillery Guns under process for decades.  Risk is transferred immediately to the user once purchase is affected. India unfortunately does not include a liability clause in contracts., a situation not completely understood by foreign OEMs.  Technology is advancing at a rapid rate. At times, because of the time taken to finalise a purchase, an asset could be near obsolescence by the time purchase is affected.  In the ever-changing threat environment, more so with the geopolitical situation in the subcontinent, the requirement to stay ahead of those who would do us harm is undeniable. Without the flexibility to quickly update our equipment, our adversaries, whoever they might be, could find gaps in our ability to protect ourselves. However, it is not economically viable to purchase new equipment in keeping 86 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 with the pace of technology development once infrastructure base. The Lockheed Martin F-35 a major capital investment has been carried Disadvantages of Leasing Lightning-II stealth fighter out. At best modifications and/or upgrades can  Contractual management of leases would be aircraft is a perfect choice for be resorted too, which also come at a price. leasing in order to modernise  Ownership does not only mean use. Final an issue as expertise for the same is not easily the Indian Air Force over the disposal of the equipment also becomes the available within the Armed Forces. responsibility of the user. With the present  There would be need for an organisation to short run environmental issues faced world over, this is maintain and keep track of the various lease not always as easy task. commitments. USAF Leasing  Dependent on the proposed utilisation, India is contemplating various types of lease, three vendors may be forced to enhance lease costs India is to be exact as mentioned at Para 7 of Chapter 9 of to cover damage or destruction. contemplating DAP. Of interest are primarily the first two, namely  While the user would be in a position to move various types of Operational Lease and Conveyance Lease. The ahead with another lease with advance in lease…Of interest advantages and disadvantages are based on the technology, there may be a situation wherein are primarily the premise that a thorough cost benefit analysis has multiple brands may be contracted for, creating first two, namely been done prior to undertaking any lease contract. administrative and utilisation issues for the Operational Lease It must be appreciated that this exercise in itself is user. and Conveyance one of the major disadvantages of leasing, though  There may be a tendency to get biased towards if carried out diligently, it gives rise to a great many a particular vendor over a period of time. Lease. The advantages and opportunities to the lessee. To lease or not to lease advantages and Advantages of Leasing From the foregoing, it may seem that leasing is a disadvantages  Systematic technology replacement of the far better proposition than outright purchase of leased equipment allows the user to remain at Capital Equipment at least at face value. However, are based on the forefront of technology one must bear in mind certain extenuating factors. the premise  There is an established life cycle to the leased India has and will retain for the foreseeable that a thorough equipment. Hence the user can plan on future future borders that are active. Accordingly, a large cost benefit requirements. amount of equipment would be utilised in active- analysis has been  Expenditure in relation to the budget can be duty conditions against adversaries. Additionally, done prior to spread out in the shorter-term thereby reducing external and internal forces are fomenting undertaking any spikes due to large costs involved in Capital discontent within the country. A live situation that lease contract expenditure as also unforeseen costs related may deter a vendor against participation in a lease to the same. Unlike full up-front purchases programme or lead to extremely high costs. where large expenditures in particular fiscal To take a decision of leasing against Capital years create spikes in spending, leases are Purchase and also Operational Lease versus considered operating expenses and therefore Conveyance Lease, it is essential that a cost benefit spread costs over time. By reducing the upfront analysis be undertaken. Further, a Cost Benefit cost of new programmes through leasing, the analysis would have to take into consideration Govt can generate substantial cost savings over time.  Standardisation can be achieved across and within the Services especially in multi service or even multi arm programmes. A case in point is the Light Strike Vehicle programme within the Army itself and also for use by the Navy and Airforce. However, this would require clarity in requirement before translation into a lease contract.  Overall maintenance costs as also requirement would be reduced as the same would be built into the lease contract without the fear of non- availability of spares etc, over a period of time. However, it must be kept in mind that the more one asks for from the lessor the higher the cost.  Disposal would no longer be an issue to the User. The requirement of salvage depots and the like would no longer exist as the responsibility would lie with the vendor. This would free up manpower and resources.  Last but not the least, the saving of funds in the short term can be utilized for additional R&D or for building a vibrant defence industrial www.geopolitics.in February 2021 87

INDIA 2021 The Russian-made T-14 the utilisation of the equipment across multiple VITALYKUZMIN.NET Armata next-generation battle scenarios. Unfortunately, technical financial expertise for the same does not exist within need is of such urgency that it precludes going tank is a very robust and the bureaucracy or even the Armed Forces and through the existing procurement process with its highly durable platform which integrating domain expertise of the Services with in-built delay potential and extremely high price an out sourced expertise on financial management tag. can be considered by the may not give the required results. The time and Indian Army for leasing knowledge required to carry out the task to ensure Leasing offers many opportunities and cost savings would preclude consideration except advantages. Stabilisation of cash flows, India has and in extreme cases. The leasing of the Nuclear enhancement of existing levels of technology, will retain for Submarines could be considered as an extreme control over inventory, creating new opportunities the foreseeable case. for optimum utilisation of man power and resources future borders to name a few. However, all this comes with a that are active. As things stand today, the MoD does not have price tag. To succeed and give a cost and material Accordingly, a a system in place to manage the complex lease benefit, it is essential that the Government and the large amount contracts. Strict Programme Management is an user understand the nuances and requirements of of equipment absolute must. In case not correctly implemented, Leasing. rather than cost savings, the net result may be would be greater expenditure negating all the plus points. It is essential that a detailed study be made of utilized in how and what is to be addressed. The risk factors active-duty Leasing offers significant advantages in involved, the exposure to the equipment being conditions situations where vendors produce commercial considered for leasing, programme and project against off the shelf assets that meet defence needs with management, sharing of resources and the like adversaries little or no modifications. A case in point is logistic are among those areas that need to be adequately support vehicles in hot border areas. analysed, considered and discussed. There may be a need for a dedicated organisation from within the Another case where leasing would be a viable forces, possibly a joint service one, with ancillary alternative is in training equipment and simulators. support from academia and professionals to These items are well away from being at risk, are understand, recommend and manage leases. extremely expensive and are continuously required to upgrade the standards of training of Armed If successful, it will greatly help in Defence Forces personnel. Budget Management. As mentioned earlier, the spikes of expenditure due to Capital expenditure Apart from standard training equipment and for new equipment or for expensive upgrades simulators, another area where leasing could and would level out. Lease expenditure could be should be resorted to is in programmes where clubbed under operational or revenue expenditure critical capital equipment is planned on being and adequately catered for. Additional funds saved procured but corresponding support equipment over time could be used to address Research and that is otherwise unaffordable for purchase can be Development and/or to build up a strong and procured under lease. vibrant Defence Industrial base. All of this can come to pass only if the issue is addressed in the Leasing could also be considered when the correct way. n 88 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in



INDIA 2021 ‘ATMANIRBHARTA’ FOR MSMES IN AEROSPACE AND DEFENCE The greatest problem faced by the Indian Armed Services is in operating and maintaining the complex systems and sub-systems of their fighting platforms, be it aircraft or battle tanks or ships, over at least four decades. This is where the foreign suppliers hold our forces to ransom through critical spares support at high cost in the short term and periodic systems upgrades in the long run, argues G RAJ NARAYAN, Founder & MD, Radel Group 90 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 MEVA Straton Plus APC (Armoured Personnel Carrier), a as Radel have already demonstrated. So, what’s Since new world-class product developed by the Indian industry the problem then? acquisition costs are extremely MAHINDRAARMORED.COM Firstly, the term MSME at present high, there is no encompasses industries having an annual alternative to ‘Self-reliance in Defence’, ‘Make in turnover of up to `250 Crores. However, a repairs, overhauls India’, and now the buzzword is majority of MSMEs would fall within the Micro ‘Atmanirbhar’. We seem to add and Small categories with an annual revenue and periodic more colour and style in the titles between `5 and 25 crores. Considering that the upgrades over at than change any serious content A&D sector is characterised by high reliability least four decades over the last six decades that some of us have performance under very harsh environments, lived through. The intent has been the same all long lifecycles and specialised technologies, (The vintage through but the means of realising it has been it is unlikely that such small players would be Jaguar aircraft of hazy, to put it mildly. Imagine that the weather able to make a significant value contribution the IAF belongs to forecast had assured you of a bright sunny day, in the indigenisation process without a holistic and you walk out of your house a few metres approach from all stakeholders for long term the 1960s) only to find thick fog completely engulfing you. sustenance and assured business. An invisible voice encourages you to continue, but you cannot even see where to put your next The greatest problem faced by the Indian step! This accurately describes the situation for Armed Services, is in operating and maintaining MSMEs that venture with high hopes and spirits the complex systems and sub-systems of their into the web of indigenisation of A&D products. fighting platforms, be it aircraft or battle tanks This certainly does not imply that MSMEs or ships, over at least four decades. This is where cannot succeed. On the other hand, they CAN the foreign suppliers hold our forces to ransom and SHOULD play a major role, like a few such through critical spares support at high cost in the short term and periodic systems upgrades in the long term. Since new acquisition costs are extremely high, there is no alternative to repairs, overhauls and periodic upgrades over at least four decades (The vintage Jaguar aircraft of the IAF belongs to the 1960s). These costs that are labelled as ‘Revenue procurement’ constitute about 75 percent of the lifecycle cost of any military platform. So, this is what needs all our attention in the indigenisation efforts, which would ultimately and automatically lead to complete indigenous platforms over years, thus achieving the goals of ‘Self-Reliance’ that we have been chasing for over six decades. Diving deeper into this, it would be very evident that systems, sub-systems and individual equipment need the focus and not the shell of the platform with its bolts, nuts and rivets, which in any case never get replaced. Systems fall under a variety of engineering domains such as electrical, electronics, hydraulics, pneumatics, controls, etc. each of which is sophisticatedly interlinked on a complex defence platform such as a fighter aircraft. What makes the design and development of such equipment very challenging is the requirement of precision, high reliability, high efficiency, low weight and small size, all of which requires use of the best engineering skills. Many of the systems cater to special military applications such as radars, navigation, secure communication, armament control, electronic countermeasures, auto-pilot, flight control, engine controls, warning systems, etc. that are unique and not normally encountered in commercial and industrial applications. Is it then fair to expect small MSMEs, most of who have no prior exposure to any of these, to accept such challenges? And would they be capable of risking investment in R&D and design without www.geopolitics.in February 2021 91

INDIA 2021 The then Chief of Army PIB Staff, General Bipin Rawat visiting the DRDO stall at the Aero India-2019 in Bengaluru What drives any financial participation from either the Govt the second DA that is lagging or struggling? the final nail or the DPSUs? Is there any mechanism or process Ever heard of any armed service, DPSU or in the coffin of for MSMEs to get exposed to these specialised certification agency signing an NDA? As is to be highly competent technologies and platforms and train their expected, there would be suspicion leading to MSMEs is the engineers and designers. It is in this background unfairness as well as unholy nexus. complete lack of that the following flaws in the “Make-II” scheme communication, as sought to be implemented by the armed The very important matter of IPR of response and forces and DPSUs are very dangerous from an equipment developed by any DA is very vaguely sensitivity, leave MSME perspective: dealt with in the Make-II procedure. It is left to alone support and the Buyer to decide whether the IPR would be encouragement At least two, if not more, Development shared or retained solely by the DA. HAL has to small and Agencies (DA) are supposed to be selected for been insisting that the IPRs shall be shared. successful development of any item, at their own cost. In the This is in spite of the fact that the complete D&D entrepreneurs case of airborne equipment, the D&D includes cost is borne by the successful DA and this is interactions with certification agencies, only amortised over many years of production. qualification tests and flight tests all of which If a DPSU has all the drawings and documents takes at least 36 months and a minimum cost relating to the indigenised equipment as is of about `35 lakhs. The procedure stipulates an insisted, it can certainly use it to develop another RFQ for selection of L1 after incurring the above source just to create an unfair competition cost to qualify for a serial production order of between them for controlling annual price 4 or 5 nos. per year, that may at best yield an escalation. In the long term, this would amount annual revenue of about `30 lakhs. This is not to ‘killing the goose that lays golden eggs’, the a sustainable business in the A&D sector. What morals of which we never seem to understand does L2 get for investing his time and money? It even in an area related to national security. is stated that he would be issued a certificate to enable him to explore export markets! On the Take the case of a DA who already possesses other hand, if the annual requirement is split the technology and designs of an item that is between the two, it benefits neither since it used on multiple platforms or systems. There becomes economically unviable at ridiculously is no clause in the Make-II procedure that small numbers, which are not even guaranteed recognises or attaches a value to this and hence in any case. Many other hidden questions each Buyer releases RFQs independently for the arise. Who ensures that the designs of the same or similar item. In this case, an MSME first DA as periodically submitted to the Buyer which already has the know-how, risks sharing and certification agencies, is not shared with it with others by participating in a Make-II project. This is wholly against his interests as 92 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 WIKIMEDIA COMMONS Indigenously-developed Arjun Mark-2 main battle tank’s fuel tank and engine in the rear section well as the larger national interest. out to assist our armed services at great financial Many of the issues Certification agencies such as CEMILAC risk and commitment, believing that it was and problems in national interest. It should come as a shock can be handled and RCMA insist on submission of a Design to the nation to hear that liquidity damages successfully if Report that captures each and every aspect have been applied by the IAF on some vendors the complete of the LRU design, which they rightfully even during the Covid lockdown when the ecosystem need for examination of margins of safety, Government of India has notified it as a ‘Force for design, performance and reliability. They therefore Majeure’ condition making all such penalties development have with them the core IPRs of the indigenised illegal and unfair. That this can happen with the and lifecycle product. Who ensures that these designs are PM, RM and FM trumpeting ‘Atmanirbhartha in maintenance of locked and protected from third parties with Defence’ points to many disconnects among all no photocopies being made, when no NDA is the stakeholders. defence equipment signed by any such organisation at any time of is addressed the certification process? Indigenisation of A&D products is no child’s holistically play even for the mature boys. But, many One of the most painful parts of indulging in of the issues and problems can be handled defence indigenisation in India is the complete successfully if the complete ecosystem for lack of any commitment from the buyers for design, development and lifecycle maintenance sustained orders. The RFQ rarely states the of defence equipment is addressed holistically future requirements, not even a rough estimate. so that we create manufacturers of everything Oral assurances are provided that there is from nuts, bolts, rivets to complex avionics an immediate and urgent requirement of a and armament systems and equipment in a few pieces, but this vanishes by the time the well-planned and coordinated manner. It is indigenisation and certification is completed, understood that some initiatives in this direction since the buyer is forced to import out of dire have indeed commenced. This needs a very need failing which the platform is not fighting competent, clean, fair, unbiased, impartial and fit. This therefore results in the vendor not progressive team of bureaucrats, technocrats getting a single order for years or ever after. and scientists of trust, to draw up a master plan All his dreams have gone up in smoke and that can be executed over the next 10 years on investments down the drain. a war footing so that our nation does not have to rely on any other country for its weapons and What drives the final nail in the coffin of platforms. There is absolutely no doubt that this highly competent MSMEs is the complete lack of is well within our reach, if only we can find the communication, response and sensitivity, leave right leaders and team members.  alone support and encouragement to small and successful entrepreneurs who stuck their neck www.geopolitics.in February 2021 93

INDIA 2021 BANNING IMPORTS WILL GIVE BIG BOOST TO DOMESTIC INDUSTRY Prahaar tactical PIB ballistic missiles indigenously developed by India A healthy domestic competition between capable industry design houses would unleash an environment of innovation and technological work culture leading to successful development of next generation technologies and products for the defence and aerospace sector, argues COMMODORE MUKESH BHARGAVA (RETD) “Self-Reliance is the best defence The words of the Prussian General and against the pressures of the moment.” Strategist of the 18th century is more relevant today than ever before, even Carl von Clausewitz after three centuries. Our own former President had equated self-respect to “Do we not realise that Self-Respect self-reliance. It is a well-accepted fact that the comes from Self- Reliance?” Indian defence industry has come of age today and has acquired significant capabilities in numerous Dr APJ Abdul Kalam, Ex-President fields. Starting from being a tiered partner to the of India DRDO and DPSUs for developing and producing defence products and supplying systems and equipment for the complete platforms; some of the Indian companies like L&T, Tata, Mahindras and BFL have graduated to the level of system-of- 94 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 systems integrators; designing and manufacturing PIB Launch of an Indian-made complete systems and platforms, by themselves. Nirbhay subsonic cruise posturing of PLA Army. China has started missile Having acquired these capabilities, industry implementing its dubious policy of ‘Salami Slicing’ had requested the government to cease import of in the North Eastern border which has compelled L&T along those systems and products that can be produced India to fortify our infrastructure and redeploy with other in-house by the Industry. Manohar Parrikar as our forces to counter PLA misadventures. This has domestic Raksha Mantri, acknowledging the capabilities placed further emphasis on indigenously designed and accepting the industry’s request, had even and developed products, tailored to meet the system included this aspect in the Defence Production specific environmental challenges faced by our integrators Policy (DPrP)-2011, which was further modified armed forces deployed on the high altitudes on the had forwarded as Draft DPrP-2018. It is heartening to note that North-Eastern and Western borders. a list of more the government has finally recognised industry Indian Ocean Region than 200 capabilities and taken a decision to ban imports Besides, China has also been following similar indigenously of 101 defence items between December 2020 stances in the South China Sea (SCS) by creating designed and and December 2025. In fact, L&T along with other artificial islands and declaring the entire SCS west developed domestic system integrators had forwarded a of the Nine Dashes as part of Chinese territory, systems and list of more than 200 indigenously designed and citing historic Ming dynasty. The countries in products to developed systems and products to MoD, when the SCS region are feeling threatened by this MoD, when such a list was sought from the industry. Industry expansionist attitude, as China has started laying such a list was is pleased to note that MoD had decided to include claim on island territories belonging to Vietnam, sought from the most of these items in the list of 101 items which Philippines and now claiming Taiwan, as integral industry have been banned for import with effect from part of China under the One-China Policy. Further, December 2020. No country can truly become under the Belt Road Initiative (BRI), China is self-reliant or attain greatness by buying defence following a policy of economic blackmail and has products from abroad as this would mean placing annexed the ports of Hambantota in Sri Lanka, the sovereignty of our nation hostage to the FOEMs. and Djibouti, besides having its own naval base at India must become completely self-reliant in the Gwadar Port in the Arabian Sea, thanks to Pakistan. field of defence and placing an embargo on import Indian Navy is concerned with the presence of of 101 items is a correct step in that direction. Chinese Nuclear Submarines (NSM) operating At the birth of a great nation, there are no midwives in the Indian Ocean, the only ocean named after In the age of rapid technological obsolescence, a country and needs to recalibrate its own force the defence systems require frequent upgradation levels & reprioritise its defence procurements to to keep pace with the emerging technologies counter this emerging threat. and to counter the advanced weapon systems India and the new world order of the adversaries. Once the MoD starts to buy The creation of naval bases in Gwadar, Hambantota Indigenous systems, then it is possible to undertake and Djibouti gives the PLA Navy the possibility of inhouse upgradation of the legacy systems since berthing & operational turnaround of their fleets industry would have the source codes and own the including the NSM, in the Indian Ocean region. complete IP of these systems. Further, industry can The rationale given by the PLA Navy is to protect even consider exporting these products, without the trade and oil being transported thru the Indian any encumbrances (being the owner of the system IP and software codes) to friendly countries, earn precious foreign exchange and become a net defence exporter, thus making the dream of our ex-President Dr Kalam true by being a major defence exporting nation. This decision will also speed up the process of Atmanirbharta in defence and meet the clarion call of Narendra Modi, our Prime Minister: “We dream of the day when India is completely self-reliant in defence production and exports defence equipment worldwide.” Emergence of China - a power to reckon with India is witnessing the emergence of a new world order where newer centres of power are emerging leading to the old alliances giving way to new alliances. In particular, China has emerged as a global economic and technological superpower to reckon with. As a result, India has to recalibrate its geo-strategic positioning, keeping the challenges on its western borders under check, while also strengthening our resources and capabilities in the North Eastern front, to counter the aggressive www.geopolitics.in February 2021 95

INDIA 2021 An Armoured Toyota Coaster MAHINDRAARMORED.COM Chinese companies in global competitive tenders. bus with ballistic protection, Under President Trump, the US Visa policy and the manufactured by Mahindra Ocean Region, cannot be accepted as it is well FTA policies were also tweaked for the benefit of the Emirates Vehicle Armouring known, that NSMs are instruments of sea-denial domestic US industries and employees. However, and not sea-control. This exposes the nefarious Indian announcement of import ban of some (MEVA) designs of the PLA Navy. Thus, PM Modi’s decision defence products, must be seen with the overall to achieve Atmanirbharta in defence is very timely Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP)-2020. Some The creation and the decision to ban imports is a correct step in of the major positives that DAP 2020 provides for of naval bases the direction of Atmanirbharta. Accordingly, India, the FOEMs are: FDI liberalised from 49 percent to 74 recognising its’ significant role in this new world percent under the automatic route; a new category in Gwadar, order, has also joined hands with US, Australia of procurement: Buy Global- Manufacture in India, Hambantota and Japan to form QUAD, besides signing the 4 encourages global OEMs to set up manufacturing and Djibouti foundational agreements with USA, i.e. GSOMIA, line in India; Leasing as an additional option is now gives PLA LEMOA, COMCASA, BECA and MISTA for mutually available to FOEMs; liberalised norms for setting beneficial defence cooperation & collaboration up JVs for co-development and coproduction of Navy the with USA. US has declared India as a Major Defence defence products; further liberalisation of the possibility of Partner (MDP) & accorded STA-1 (Strategic Trade Offset Policy, to mention a few. berthing and Agreement) status thereby indicating its’ willing operational to transfer most advanced defence technologies Under this kind of global scenario, it is a very turnaround to India. India and US are in advanced stage of forward looking and progressive move by the of their fleets discussions for signing the Reciprocal Defence government to declare the `20 lakh crore economic including the Procurement Agreement (RDPA). In addition, India support package to ease the economic crisis faced NSM, in the has also become a signatory to the International by the industry. It is of specific significance that Indian Ocean Export Control Regimes – Wassenar Agreement, recognising the strength of the domestic defence MTCR, Australia Group and is also willing to sign & aerospace industry, GoI has allocated `52,000 region the NSG, which would provide Indian defence crores for procurement of defence & aerospace industry access to the defence markets in most of products from domestic suppliers for the FY 2021. the regions, globally. This gives a clear message to the global industries Does banning of import imply protectionism? in the defence and aerospace sector, that there It is a fact that the policy of protectionism is evident is perfect coordination between the Ministry of across most developed and developing countries. Defence and Ministry of Finance and the allocation US has the policy of America First, Europe follows of funds necessary for the modernisation and a policy of preference to the EU members, Russia upgrade of the armed forces, would not be wanting and China also have policies for the protection of due to lack of funds or financial support. This their domestic industries. China goes a step further coordination between MoD and Finance Ministry to the extent of tweaking their currency to the is a positive message, not only to the domestic benefit of Chinese companies when participating players but also to the global community, that in global competitions. Besides, China aggressively India is serious about matters related to its national uses the Line of Credit policy very effectively along security. with the BRI policy to get the economic leverage for Atmanirbharta in defence With the announcement of ‘Make in India’ (MII) campaign by PM Modi in September 2014, the government of India had identified 26 sectors for MII. Defence was the most significant segment as this is the only sector that can give a multiplier of seven to the economic value addition or fillip to the Indian GDP growth. During the past six years number of policies have been introduced in the form of DPP-2016, DAP-2020 and DPEPP 2020, which focussed on the pre-dominance of the domestic industry and exports. Out of the seven procurement categories under DAP-2020; six categories are open for participation by the Indian industry and four categories, also known as the MII categories, are exclusive to only Indian companies. The banning of import of the 101 products will ensure that these products would only be procured from Indian companies thus enhancing the potential of MII in defence. Further, it is expected that the list of defence products banned for imports will be progressively enhanced. MoD has sought inputs from the industry for the second list of banned for imports items, which is expected to be announced by MoD in February 2021. 96 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 Going forward, as the industry gains expertise for environment of innovation and technological work DRDO Rustom-1 UAV WIKIMEDIA COMMONS developing more and more systems and platforms culture leading to successful development of next prototype indigenously, these would keep on getting added generation technologies and products for the D&A to the ‘banned for import’ items list, thus giving Sector. The Service Headquarters have also shared Countries like the required boost to the MII and Atmanirbharta their 15-years Long Term Perspective Plans (LTIPP) Israel and in defence. This would also open up sufficient with the industry. The industry can now identify South Korea, opportunities for export of domestically designed technologies required for the next 15 years and to mention and manufactured systems and platforms thus can plan/start development of these technologies a few, have enabling Indian industry to achieve the objective either on their own or in collaboration with a of an export target of $5 billion set by the RM by technology partner. This would give a massive become global 2025. boost and launch an indigenous technology arms exporters development and innovation movement. MoD has by developing Out of the list of 101 products, approx. 69 already launched many programmes like iDEX, products are already ready or under various stages TDF, NIIO, ADB, etc. to promote defence startups their own of trials and are banned for imports with effect thru funding by MoD/DRDO/SHQs. This would technologies from December 2020. The balance 32 products are only accelerate the technology development and product in various stages of development and would be revolution in the defence sector making India matured for induction in service in the next five- the global hub for design and manufacturing of suitably years’ time. The announcement of these items defence products. backed by being banned for imports would give a massive and with the incentive to the industry to develop indigenous Industry congratulates the MoD for this support of technologies which industry is already capable of. pathbreaking decision and thanks them for their policies However, the promise of assured domestic orders acknowledging Industry capabilities and acceding will only help in expediting the development to the industry request of banning import of those process. Industry strongly recommends that the products that can be developed within the country. ‘banned for imports items list’ should also include Countries like Israel, South Korea and South a timeline within which MoD would place orders Africa, to mention a few, have become global arms on the industry. This would act as a catalyst exporters by developing their own technologies and and a huge incentive for the industry to invest product suitably backed by and with the support in developing technologies through creation of of their MoD policies. This one single decision has indigenous IPs and make investments for creating the potential to make a huge impact and has the the much-needed Defence Industrial Base (DIB) capability to propel Indian Defence industry in in India. This would be in line with the vision of the big league of arms exporting nations. The only General Bipin Rawat, Chief of the Defence Staff challenge is in the truthful implementation of this who has said that the “ultimate objective is to win policy and how well can it harness the immense future wars with home-made (Indigenous) weapon potential of the defence private sector. If this systems”. policy is faithfully implemented, industry has no Opportunities for SMEs/MSMEs doubt that India will not only become self-reliant SMEs and MSMEs are the IP creators and developers in defence but will also become a major defence of niche technologies which makes them the equipment exporter in the next 10 years. n backbone, an integral and crucial part of the D&A value chain. Defence majors (system integrators) like L&T would have at least 1000+ SMEs/MSMEs in its’ tiered value chain. The D&A majors outsource a large part of their work to the SMEs/MSMEs. The import ban of the defence items would create a synergistic impetus to the system integrators and their supply chain of SMEs/MSMEs which would result in huge economic boost to the economy and create one million jobs. MoD is expecting to spend approximately `4 lakh crores over the next 6-7 years on defence procurement. This would open-up huge opportunities for the SMEs/MSMEs, the more competitive and innovative of whom could even aspire to become system integrators in due course of time, thus helping in creating the DIB in India. The MoD’s decision to procure all defence tender under `200 crores from domestic companies would also be a huge enabler for the growth of SMEs/MSMEs. Creating a Defence Industrial Base (DIB) in India A healthy domestic competition between capable industry design houses would unleash an www.geopolitics.in February 2021 97

RIGHT ANGLE PROTECTING INDIA’S AIR POWER With Bengaluru staging one of Asia’s largest air a hot war is always a probability, which, in turn, can jeopardize shows this month, in which international defence our maritime security. and aerospace companies are going to raise the sales pitch, pursuing multi-billion rupees contract Given this security environment that India is in, can we stretch the typical gun vs butter debate beyond a point? Whether opportunities in India, a minority but powerful school of there is Covid or not, we cannot compromise on our security. thought is questioning its very relevance. The opposition is not As it is, the Indian Air Force does not have even 30 squadrons because the mega event will affect the daily lives of the people that are fully operational, although the sanctioned strength is of Bengaluru and add to the city’s noise and pollution. These 42. The strength will further come down when the MiG-21 series are the standard resentments of the local populace against is phased out in near future. So if at all, we need, and that too any air show anywhere in the world. But their question is more badly, more fighter aircraft, whatever the economic conditions fundamental. Should a developing country like India think of may be. They are not luxury, but vital to ensure the country’s acquiring the “technological wonders” that will be displayed at unity, integrity and development. the cost of billions of rupees, which could be better spent on India cannot be equated with some other leading importers healthcare, education or feeding and housing the poor? of arms in the last decade or so. There have been countries, such This question has added relevance because the country as those in West Asia and South East Asia, whose import of arms is yet to recover fully from the Corona pandemic and its or military expenditure have been dependent on their economic accompanying deleterious impacts on the economy. health – buying more when there is surplus of funds With reduced incomes, rising unemployment, and stopping the buying when the economy is shrinking demands and stagnating growth, any problematic (say reduced exports or crash of the oil government anywhere, particularly when it is a prices). Their military expenditure is not necessarily democracy, has to think of spending more money proportionate to vital security-needs. This is not on the social sectors and basic infrastructures rather the case with India, whose needs are based on its than on procuring fighter aircraft and other defence complex security environment. items. The Covid-19 pandemic will, thus, have an It may be noted here that the Covid-19 has not impact on government and its military spending and stalled the US military industry which caters to the resource allocations. Prakash Nanda needs of the US forces as well exports the surplus Fighting the Covid-19 menace and minimising to foreign militaries. The US did not reduce its its adverse fallouts need money. But where the money will military expenditure, given its concerns, whether rightly or come from? The government cannot simply set up factories for wrongly, about the global stability. After all, the Covid -19 has printing notes. Obviously, it will go for diverting money meant not dampened Iran’s morale. It has not put a brake on China’s in other sectors. And here the defence sector, which, despite aggressive designs in the Indo-Pacific. It has not stopped North Modi’s ultra-nationalist image, has got the scantiest allocations Korea from resuming missile testing. Looking at all these in each of his seven five budgets; it is about 1.6 percent of our developments, the US Air Force, it is said, signed 550 research GDP, though ideally it should have been at least 3 percent, given contracts worth about $1 billion with various institutions. the nation’s security environment. Therefore, we are now in a Lockheed, arguably the biggest American defense firm, hired situation where the security analysts and vendors are openly thousands of technocrats and workers to meet mounting orders asking whether India has money to buy or even manufacture for F-35 fighters, hypersonic and subsonic cruise missiles, and sophisticated platforms and weapons. the US Air Force’s new Combat Rescue Helicopter (recently At the same time, however, it is a hard fact that no nation named the Joly Green II), among others. has developed economically without the corresponding Of course, the Covid-19 hit badly the Boeing, which, military strength; that the two are inexorably linked; that peace supposedly, is at the apex of the American aerospace ecosystem, and tranquility, the two essential prerequisites for sustained shut down some of its facilities making US Navy’s P-8 patrol plane economic growth, cannot be assured without adequate military and Air Force KC-46 tanker. But, in order to ease its strain, the power; and that these days “Air Power” (“Aerospace Power”, to US Air Force released $882 million that had been withheld from be more accurate) is one of the most critical components of Boeing because of deficiencies on the KC-46 tanker. Besides, military power. Pentagon accelerated progress payments, and the massive $2 All told, the pandemic of Covid-19 has not eased the security trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) environment of India. If at all, it has further complicated the Act injected more than $17 billion in cash for defence, plus environment. There is a military stand-off with China in eastern another $80 billion in loans for the broader aerospace industry. Ladakh, with no signs of abetment in near future. In fact, the It needs to be emphasized that there are times when war-like situations now prevail all over the Line of Actual financial crises have medium- and longer-term implications for Control, from Ladakh up to Arunachal Pradesh. Line of Control the military. For instance, in the decade after the 2007–08 global with Pakistan in the Union Territory (UT) of Jammu and Kashmir financial crisis, threat perceptions altered and great-power is like a Live-Wire, with Pakistan not losing any opportunity to competition re-emerged. And these, in turn, fuelled the recovery violate the ceasefire agreement and to push terrorists into the of defence spending in many leading countries. The point, UT. In the neighbouring Afghanistan, the Civil War is now seeing therefore, is that the defence budgets need to be protected to a the clear edge of the extremist fundamentalists, thanks to the great degree, even if we are in the midst of a pandemic. help from Pakistan. A Taliban-led Afghanistan will have serious So, let us welcome the Aero India Show 2021. repercussions on peace and normalcy not only in Kashmir but also in rest of the country. In Iran, the situation is so volatile that [email protected] 98 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in



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