Strategies magazine September 2020

AESP Website | Events Calendar | September 2020 Will Virtual Audits be the Letter from the Board Chair new normal? Why data science is opening new What Shape is your Future doors in the energy in? Navigating your career efficiency industry in a rapidly evolving sector By Meysam Sahafzadeh, Alex Corneglio and By Raegan Bond Jesse Hitchcock Our energy industry is being disrupted by the Virtual Audits offer utilities new opportunities to three Ds: more decentralized as we integrate advance energy efficiency. Virtual Audits’ low DERs, more decarbonized as we take action on cost and high scalability can help grow the climate change; and more digitized. So what do potential in the building sector by finding the these changes mean to professionals working in complex patterns in large data sets, audit more the energy sector? As a result of these changes, buildings and reach more people. The authors the value of deep technical expertise is present data on the increasing accuracy of decreasing, the value of transferrable soft skills virtual audit and AI advances. Read more. is increasing; and there will be more job opportunities, but also stiffer competition. Learn how to position yourself for what’s ahead.

From the AESP Energy Central EE Community Distributed Behavior-Based Energy Efficiency: Still the Energy Efficiency: How we Low Hanging Fruit can Leverage Spheres of Influence to Fight Climate By Fereidoon P. Sioshansi Change and Achieve Cost Effective Energy Savings A recent report “Emissions Anticyclone” explains why energy efficiency gains must By Natalie Zandt almost double to reach the Paris Agreement’s targets and why it is the largest and cheapest Behavioral interventions are proven methods of untapped source of emissions reductions. If the achieving significant energy savings. But relationship between GDP and energy behavior-based programs need not stop at consumption holds steady over the next 20 Home Energy Reports. There are a wide variety years, we will consume 25% more energy in of behavioral interventions that can yield 2040, putting us a long way above climate significant energy saving results, such as: goals. Enter energy efficiency. Read more. Normative comparisons, competitions and games, community based strategies and real- time energy use feedback. Of these, Energy Saving Challenges are one of the easiest to run. Here’s how. \"Businesses Charge Up Batteries to Corral Power Costs\" \"California Nears Tipping Point on All-Electric Regulations for New Buildings\"

\"A New Model for Valuing Distributed Energy Could Drive Big Changes in California\" \"Arizona Regulators May Impose Big Boost in Energy Requirements — 100 Percent Clean Energy by 2050\" \"Assessing the Value of Battery Energy Storage in Future Power Grids\" \"Virginia Takes Historic Steps to Secure a Clean Energy Future\" \"Illinois Program Aims to Match Seniors, Teens to Install Smart, Efficient Devices\" \"Jevons Paradox\" So what’s next? More training opportunities! If you could not join us for AESP’s Virtual Conference last week, know that we have many more affordable and convenient DSM training courses coming right up. Basic Statistics You Will Use September 28, 12– 4pm (ET). Earn CEUs: .2 $299 or 1 point for AESP members, $399 nonmembers. REGISTER HERE. Basic Statistics. Reasons for statistics. What the various statistical measures (mean, variance, proportion, range) are. How are they used. How to compute/interpret them. Statistical Tests. How to use statistics for testing differences among groups (e.g., participants and nonparticipants). Among different time periods (e.g., pre and post). What are the statistical tests. How you compute/interpret them. Confidence and precision. Point and interval estimates. Sampling. Types, sample size determination. Data Sources/cleaning. Program tracking, weather, economic, demographics. Outliers, identification, corrections. Explaining variation. Regression models, assessing quality of the regression model. Additional tools (time permitting). You will learn how to say and explain cool things like ANOVA, covariance and correlation (and explain the difference), and dummy variables (their name has nothing to do with their intelligence). Who should attend - Evaluators, program staff and program managers with limited knowledge of statistics. All statistical terms will be explained in simple terms using data from real project. The emphasis of the workshop is on interpretation of statistical results. This class is about making statistic useful and, more importantly, making it fun. LEARNING OUTCOMES: • Understand basic statistical analysis for evaluation of DSM programs • Identify best methods for analyzing different types of data • Know the difference between mean, media, and mode and brag about it • Understand how variation in data matters Define various ways to test particular program outcomes. Dealing with Uncertainty in EM&V October 5, 12 – 2:30pm (ET). Earn CEUs: .2 $199 or 1 point for AESP members, $299 for nonmembers. REGISTER HERE. Expressing, calculating, and dealing with Uncertainty. Uncertainty is part of being alive. You have no choice but to make decisions in the face of uncertainty. You can’t just avoid it hoping that you picked the right muffin. We never know

for sure where is the best place to buy muffins. This class will teach you how uncertainty is measured, but without the deep dive into math. We will also discuss different sources of uncertainty and different means of dealing with them. Acceptable uncertainty, tradeoff with cost, value of information, confidence and precision, method of improving confidence and precision, methods for decreasing sample size. This class is about taking the mystery out of uncertainty. You will learn how to face it with courage. LEARNING OUTCOMES: • Define statistical uncertainty and its importance to evaluation of DSM programs • Identify industry best practices for calculating confidence and precision • Articulate sources of error for data analysis Understand use of uncertainty and interpretation of final results. Attribution and Net-to-Gross October 12, 12 – 2:30pm (ET). Earn CEUs: .2 $199 or 1 point for AESP members, $299 for nonmembers. REGISTER HERE. In our fabulous work of DSM, we are often faced with the question of explaining the causes of what we observe. Did our participant undertake the actions they did because we incented or educated them to do so? Or would they have done so anyway? Equally importantly, did they undertake additional actions beyond those targeted by our intervention? Sometimes, we go “upstream” to make our products more competitive “on the shelf.” Do those programs cause additional impacts that are more difficult to observe, but are real nevertheless? Will Joe the plumber have had the efficient water heater on the truck had it not been for our program? Would our local store have carried efficient products had it not been for our efforts? These are all awesome questions that need to answered, regardless of how painful the process may be. LEARNING OUTCOMES: • Describe why attribution is important to DSM programs • Define and articulate how free ridership, spillover, market effects, and NTG impacts DSM programs • Understand the various methods used to estimate NTG. They made it. Who made it? AESP’s 30 Game Changers in the last 30 Years Can you believe that AESP turns 30 this year? Back in 1990, lightbulbs were almost all incandescent, and smartphones weren't invented yet. In the same way, many of the programs, practices and technologies that the EE industry counts on today also didn’t exist back then. In conjunction with AESP’s anniversary, we surveyed our members to find out the most important developments in the past 30 years that have shaped the industry, and the result is AESP’s Top 30 Game Changers in the last 30 Years. Gimme a Q! Gimme an A! We give you Q&A Occasionally you may find that you have a question that you want to ask someone in the industry, or, a unique request to ask of the energy efficiency community. Then the next question is, where can I post my question to reach industry folks? There are three places where you can post your questions (and other news too) to be seen by AESP’s community of EE experts. 1) There are over 11K energy efficiency professionals worldwide active in the AESP-Energy Central EE Community. You can post articles here, as well as pose your questions in a special Q&A section. Plus, once a week Energy Central mails the Energy Management Network newsletter to update all subscribers on the top discussions of the week. 2) Next, there’s the AESP website where you can post in the AESP Members Forum page making it visible to all AESP site visitors. However, this privilege is for AESP members only; you must first log-in with your member credentials before creating a post, and posts are free. 3) Thirdly, there’s the AESP LinkedIn Group with nearly 5000 members (in addition to a LinkedIn page). Our LinkedIn Group encourages you to post your content for all to see, to comment, answer questions, as well as add to discussions.

WEBINARS ONLINE TRAINING COURSES Not Your Uncle’s Stash: Understanding Basic Statistics You WILL Use the Controlled Environment Agriculture September 28 Market October 19 September 17 Dealing with Uncertainty in EM&V Moving Goalposts: Maintaining Cost October 5 Effectiveness Amid Changing October 26 Assumptions September 24 Attribution and Net-to-Gross Electrification series: Creating Utility October 12 Measures to Promote Electrification November 2 September 29 Cost Effectiveness (on demand) CONFERENCES DSM 1: Energy Basics (on demand) 31st ANNUAL CONFERENCE January 25-28, 2021 - New Orleans, LA DSM 2: Utility Fundamentals (on demand) SPRING CONFERENCE 2021 DSM 3: Utility Business Models (on May 17-19, 2021 - Jacksonville, FL demand) DSM 4: Contract Management (on demand)

Will Virtual Audits be the new normal? Why data science is opening new doors in the energy efficiency industry By Meysam Sahafzadeh, Alex Corneglio and Jesse Hitchcock For most buildings, the first step towards energy efficiency is an on-site energy audit by a certified professional. The result of this audit is a detailed analysis of the building's energy performance completed using sophisticated modeling software. These on-site assessments are accurate and comprehensive, but they can also come with a high cost – particularly for residential buildings where audit costs represent a greater proportion of total retrofit project costs. Because of the reliance on experts to collect and process data, on-site audits also present challenges in terms of scalability and consistency. Scaling audits to more buildings essentially requires deploying more energy auditing experts, which does little to reduce the cost to audit an individual building. Meanwhile, variations in building conditions, data collection, and auditor experience present challenges in providing a consistent audit experience across all buildings. Finding ever more accurate, rapid, cost effective, and scalable auditing techniques is vital for the advancement of energy efficiency, and the need for viable alternatives to on-site audits has recently been amplified by the COVID- 19 pandemic. Digital audits have existed for decades, and they run the gamut from customer engagement and education tools through to data-based energy assessments and building modeling designed to rival expert advice. Data science is fueling the next generation of digital audit technology and the term ‘Virtual Audit’ is now being used to characterize audits completed with limited or no in-person interactions. This article explores the state of Virtual Audit technology today and presents potential use-cases for data-based Virtual Audits into the future. What are ‘Virtual Audits’ and why are they useful? When it comes to how we define energy efficiency tools, the waters are muddier than ever: Audit descriptors such as online, virtual, digital, disaggregated, AI- powered, remote and more all seem to ambiguously overlap. A distilled definition of what we think of as a ‘Virtual Audit’ would read something like this: “A systematic assessment of a building’s energy performance and improvement potential conducted via software using available data collected without visiting the building site.” This definition maintains the key elements of any holistic audit and clarifies that the audit should attempt to analyze the entire building and not only specific elements of it. Additionally, it provides qualification for the term ‘virtual’ that helps to separate a truly Virtual Audit from close cousins such as “remote audits” which utilize software that helps keep professional auditors off-site. Remote audits ultimately still require someone on-site to collect the data, whether it’s the building owner providing information over the phone or capturing video of their surroundings. In contrast, online ‘self-guided’ audits and consumption disaggregation go so far as to eliminate the auditor completely, but they fall short in their ability to accurately and holistically assess the building’s performance and improvement potential. All of these solutions exist as complements to or replacements of the traditional on-site audit, and each of them have strengths and weaknesses.

For Virtual Audits to be truly useful and valuable, they need to outperform existing options. Table 1 illustrates a qualitative comparison of Virtual Audits against on-site, remote, and online audits. Virtual audits need to provide high accuracy and be cost effective in terms of dollars paid (i.e. the real cost) and operation hassle incurred, such as occupants taking the day off work (i.e. the transactional cost). To take full advantage of this economy of “high accuracy for less cost” they should also be scalable and deliver consistent results. More audits = more efficiency With over 10 million single-family homes in North America1,2, scalability and consistency are of critical importance. While the typical residential building has the potential to reduce its energy consumption by more than 25%, most homeowners struggle to understand how to unlock these savings through building improvements; hence the value of energy assessments in providing specific recommendations. By identifying efficient building retrofits, energy audits drive the adoption of energy efficiency. Put simply: more audits = more efficiency. Today, on-site audits only reach about 1% of the population each year 3,4. Industry conversion rates suggest that online audits and other self-guided tools can reach another 5% to 15% of the population in areas where they are available. This leaves a staggering 84% or more of the population unaudited. To grow the energy efficiency sector and to achieve our collective efficiency policy goals, we have to reach the remaining 84%. Virtual audits can help. Despite the fact that a vast amount of residential building data has been accumulated in recent years, the data sets are large and complex and can’t be effectively utilized by relational database management systems. Data science technology such as Machine Learning has been introduced as the solution to harness the potential of this data, allowing us to capture, analyze, update, query, and visualize information. In the context of energy efficiency, modern Machine Learning algorithms such as “Deep Learning” can leverage data that utilities have been collecting for years, including building characteristics and historical energy consumption, combined with numerous publicly available data sources, to open new doors that will revolutionize energy efficiency delivery. Are Virtual Audits really accurate? Despite the potential Virtual Audits present for the energy efficiency sector, they have been challenged

on their ability to deliver the same level of granularity and savings potential as on-site audits. In contrast to the more ‘white-box’ nature of the physics-based calculations utilized by traditional energy modeling software, data-based Virtual Audits are more ‘black box’ and are developed by correlating inputs (e.g. building information) with desired outputs (e.g. annual building energy consumption). These correlations are developed and established through a process known as ‘model training’. Model training can be used to ensure that Virtual Audits behave in a way that inherently accounts for and reduces the risk of making inaccurate predictions about building performance. Figure 1 shows that a ‘sweet spot’ exists where data-based Virtual Audits can essentially balance risk and accuracy. Through model training and management of model complexity, data scientists are able to achieve the ‘sweet spot’: accurate ‘Virtual Audit models’ that work for large portions of a population to produce consistently accurate predictions within acceptable error limits. To examine the accuracy of Virtual Audits, we collected and processed robust sets of building data to determine correlations between building features and energy consumption. Virtual audits were able to predict the energy consumption of a home with the same statistical accuracy as an on-site audit, even without looking at the results of the blower door test (Figure 2).

Machine-learning based Virtual Audits also offer the flexibility to replicate the software output generated from an on-site assessment under ‘standard operating conditions’, or to calibrate the predictions to more closely predict actual consumption without requiring any additional inputs. From a practical perspective, this allows the Virtual Audit to achieve a closer estimate to actual energy consumption than what is generated by the typical building analysis software used in an on-site audit. These comparisons are illustrated in Figure 3. The red and green lines compare on-site audits (red line) and Virtual Audits (green line) from the perspective of standard operating conditions. The congruence of the lines indicates that Virtual Audits are as accurate as on-site audits in this regard. The actual consumption of the building (blue line) represents the actual occupancy condition. When the Virtual Audit is asked to target actual ‘occupied’ consumption (yellow line) it effectively deviates from the standard operating conditions and predicts consumption closer to actual (Figure 3). New Doors - Use-cases for Virtual Audits

The utility sector has already benefited from advanced analytics in grid management, demand response, and predictive maintenance. Similarly, Virtual Audits offer utilities new opportunities to rapidly advance in key aspects of their business. Door 1: Market segmentation through ‘bottom-up’ potential studies Virtual audits offer accuracy and consistency at scale. Once a model is developed for a particular region, any number of buildings can be audited so long as the basic inputs to the model are available. This means that the number of audits that can feasibly be performed in a service territory is limited only by available data. In recent projects, we have found that readily available data can be used to virtually audit approximately 20% of the residential building stock annually without any customer engagement. This presents new opportunities for market segmentation where Virtual Audit results essentially validate market potential before an efficiency program has even been launched. Utility program designers and government planners can utilize Virtual Audits to segment markets based on building nuances normally perceptible only through a bottom-up, building-by-building analysis. Door 2: Customer Engagement Instead of hoping that the ideal customers participate in energy efficiency programs, Virtual Audits offer the opportunity for new customer engagement tactics. ‘Push marketing’ strategies can be used to target only the buildings that are the most likely to benefit from improvement opportunities identified by Virtual Audits. With Virtual Audits, mass-marketing is no longer about informing all customers of efficiency programs and incentives that are available, but instead providing automatic enrollment and even pre-approval for specific customers that are identified to be top candidates. In this way, push marketing strategies can be used to both increase program participation as well as overall program effectiveness. EnergyX research has shown that optimal customers (i.e. top quartile in terms of energy saving potential) can deliver up to four times the energy savings of “average customers” - a significant boost to any program’s cost effectiveness test. Door 3: Claiming and Adjudicating Savings Program effectiveness and attribution remains a persistent industry challenge. In no small part, this is because auditing and collecting the data to evaluate all program savings is an impossible task given the conventional means available. Today, governments and program evaluators rely on surveys and limited audits conducted for handfuls of actual program participants, when Virtual Audits could do the same job for all program participants at a fraction of the cost and time. Because Virtual Audits can be calibrated to target actual consumption and to account for any confidence interval or error limit, they seem poised to redefine how program effectiveness is claimed and adjudicated. Their mathematical and algorithmic nature brings the assumptions and biases of both operators and evaluators to the forefront with statistical transparency. Together these factors will increase reporting accuracy, which ultimately leads to a better understanding of how to optimize efficiency initiatives in the future. Conclusion From population segmentation to individual energy consumption prediction, Virtual Audits provide a new lens for evaluating building performance at scale. Although they use a different approach, the outcome is comparable to an on-site audit performed by professional auditors. Through sophisticated analysis of building characteristics and other data, most energy saving opportunities can be identified

without needing to physically visit a building. This presents an obvious benefit: Virtual Audits can be applied to the majority of a population, only deploying professional energy auditors when and where they are needed most. Virtual Audits aren’t designed to eliminate the role of professional auditors and building scientists in energy efficiency, but rather grow our collective potential in this sector. By finding the complex patterns in large data sets, we strive to audit more buildings, reach more people, and maximize our impact. References: 1Statistics Canada. 2016. Census in Brief, Dwellings in Canada (https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/as-sa/98-200-x/2016005/98-200-x2016005- eng.cfm) 2The United States Census Bureau. 2020. (https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf) 3Residential Energy Services Network (RESNET®) (https://www.hersindex.com/benefits/) 4Statistics Canada. 2011. Environment Accounts and Statistics Division, Households and the Environment Survey (survey number 3881). https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-526-x/2013001/t053-eng.htm Meysam Sahafzadeh is a Data Scientist and AI Developer at EnergyX Solutions. He leads the development and training of machine learning models for utility partners across North America. Alex Corneglio is the CTO and Co-Founder of EnergyX Solutions. He leads the company's strategic and technical operations. Jesse Hitchcock is the Manager of Client Engagement for EnergyX Solutions. She works with utility partners across North America to ensure their software tools are successfully advancing their energy efficiency goals. Back to top Letter from the Board Chair What Shape is your Future in? Navigating your career in a rapidly evolving sector By Raegan Bond Author’s note: Last week, I had the honour of giving the opening keynote on Day 2 of AESP’s first Virtual Conference. While it was quite daunting to give a keynote address directly into my computer monitor with no immediate audience feedback, I am pleased by the positive response that I received afterwards. I am pleased to share my remarks with the whole AESP community and invite members to provide feedback on how AESP could better serve its members as we all navigate this ever changing (but exciting!) energy sector. When AESP staff first approached me about giving this talk, our initial thinking was that I would provide a big picture view of emerging sector trends. As I began to think more about what I wanted to cover and the key messages I wanted to relay about our sector’s transformation, I realized that it has already been done – a lot. There is a LOT of content out there on the energy sector transformation – the factors that are driving it, different predictions

around pace and scale of the change, and of course views on the potential implications of this sector transformation. On this last point, I have seen a lot of discussion about what may happen to certain market actors – mostly utilities – because of these changes. However, I have seen very little discussion on what it means to be a professional working in the energy sector amidst this massive transformation. At AESP we are dedicated to advancing the industry by fostering professional development and networking within our professional community. So, I could think of no better lens for my remarks today on energy sector trends, than to focus on what these changes are likely to mean for us as energy professionals and how can we respond. Let’s start by recapping what we mean by the energy sector transformation. While each jurisdiction has its own characteristics and context, there are some clear universal trends. Energy systems are becoming: • More decentralized – as we integrate distributed energy resources (DERs); • More decarbonized – as we take action on climate change; and • More digitized – as we modernize our infrastructure, and integrate with smart buildings, technologies and DERs. So what do these changes – these three Ds of disruption – mean to you and me, as professionals working in the energy sector? I believe that as a result of these changes, that: 1. The value of deep technical expertise is decreasing; 2. The value of transferrable soft skills is increasing; and 3. There will be more job opportunities, but also stiffer competition. Let’s tackle these one by one. Our sector has long valued deep technical expertise – we hire engineers and technologists with deep knowledge. I used to work with a guy that could recite the detailed history and characteristics of every transmission line in Ontario. And while I absolutely think that having solid technical foundation in areas such as power systems, building science, lighting, and mechanical systems will continue to be of value, I think that value of having deep expertise in any given specific technology is decreasing. With the rapid pace of technological change, I believe that a dedication to continuous learning and an ability to quickly acquire and apply new knowledge will be more important than deep expertise in one specific area. I believe the new experts in the energy sector will be the system thinkers, the connectors and the integrators. Which leads into my second assertion – that the value of transferrable soft skills will only increase as the sector evolves. In my experience, hard skills get your foot in the door, but soft skills are what get you promoted. In my very first job interview out of university, I remember being asked to name the six greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol. Eleven years and two organizations later when I was hired as the VP of Conservation and Demand Management with an electric utility – the interview questions were entirely about communication, leadership and strategy. And while it may be true that more senior positions always had (or should have had) a greater emphasis on ‘soft’ people management skills, I see this need becoming even more pressing based on the energy sector transition. The energy sector leaders of today and tomorrow need to not only be exceptional communicators and people managers – they need to be adaptable and resilient in the face of uncertainty and – critically – be able to inspire and lead others through change. My third assertion was that the career opportunities in our sector will grow, but so too will the competition. Just as we are seeing non-traditional market actors enter the energy sector, we will also see a wider talent pool interested in working in our field. At my own consulting firm, we recently had over 500 applicants for analyst position. While many of these applicants are engineers, we are seeing an increasing diversity of educational backgrounds – from economists, to data scientists, to lawyers. There is no single-entry point for getting a job in the energy efficiency industry. The current COVID pandemic has also made many companies realize that remote work is a viable option, and this will

likely impact their recruiting policies going forward. Again, this presents a double-edged sword. You may now have access to roles in companies far away, but so too will your competition. So, if my predictions are correct…how should you respond, what should you do now? I offer a couple of thoughts here, or more specifically, two recommendations: 1. Take a systems-view of your career; 2. Take ownership of – and invest in – your own career. To me, taking a systems-view of your career is about transitioning away from traditional, linear thinking when it comes to career progression. In much the same way that our energy systems are changing – from centralized, one-way flow of energy into more complex integrated web – so too are energy careers changing. The days of 40-plus years tenured employees and the single corporate ladder are quickly fading. I believe our sector’s transformation will open up many new opportunities for career progression, and that those who take a broad systems-view of their career will see that there are many possible paths towards success, impact and fulfillment. My second recommendation – about owning and investing in your own career – stems directly from something I was told early in my own career. A former boss once said to me “there is nobody responsible for your career but you.” While I recall being a bit shocked at the time by his bluntness, I have come to truly believe this and have said it to many of my own team members in the years since. Investing in your own career is about proactively building the skills, the knowledge and the personal networks that will help you succeed in the face of our rapidly evolving sector. Many of us are lucky to work for companies with excellent, supportive professional development programs and of course we at AESP are here to help as well. Earlier last week the Board of Directors met and finalized our next three- year strategic plan; I will say that you should expect to see a LOT more from us when it comes to education and professional development support over the coming three years. So, to wrap things up – I think it goes without saying that the energy sector is at a time of major change. Personally, I consider myself incredibly lucky that my professional working years are aligning with this time of such tremendous and exciting change in the energy sector. We get to work in a field that is dynamic and meaningful – one that touches literally every aspect of society. Navigating our careers within this changing environment might pose some challenges, but I think they are outstripped by the opportunities. Raegan Bond is Chair of the AESP Board, and a partner at Dunsky Energy Consulting. Back to top Now You’re Talking ! What People are Saying in the AESP-Energy Central EE Community Did you know that there's an active (11,000+ members and growing) community of energy efficiency professionals ONLINE? It's the AESP and Energy Central's EE Community. As an AESP member, join this community to post your articles, weigh in on a topic, ask questions of fellow EE professionals, or help answer questions to foster collaborative discussions that benefit everyone. Each month, we highlight one post from the community, but we encourage you to explore the many other articles and posts online, so check out the community here.

From the AESP Energy Central EE Community Distributed Behavior-Based Energy Efficiency: How we can Leverage Spheres of Influence to Fight Climate Change and Achieve Cost Effective Energy Savings By Natalie Zandt Nearly every individual contributes both to growing carbon emissions (to different degrees), and has a stake in combating climate change to ensure that warming stays below 2 degrees Celsius. To avoid potentially catastrophic consequences in the future, scientists say we must cut carbon emissions by at least half within the next 10 years. Such a Herculean task surely requires all hands on deck. So what are we waiting for? We can coordinate measurable and collective large scale climate action as individuals by leveraging behavioral interventions within our own spheres of influence. And we can begin implementing this approach by first focusing on energy efficiency. Leveraging Spheres of Influence Within the context of the Social-Ecological Model developed by Urie Bronfenbrenner, spheres of influence are the multiple levels (individual, interpersonal, organizational, community, and public policy) of influence that shape an individual’s behaviors. We can use this same model, to help us to understand the factors that cause people to take or not take action to mitigate climate change. The model also suggests that in order to get people to take action to combat climate change, it is necessary to act across multiple spheres of influence at the same time. This approach is more likely to sustain climate change mitigation efforts over time than any single intervention.

Up until now, energy efficiency efforts have primarily been focused at levels of public policy and mass marketing campaigns promoting rebates. To accelerate adoption of energy efficient equipment and behaviors to enable us to eventually reach 100% clean energy, we need to increase focus on organizational and interpersonal spheres of influence. At the organizational level, many individuals are heavily influenced by their work environment. Work is a place where we spend most of our time, it’s where we cooperate in teams, and it is also a place where many of us derive our sense of status. Employer driven climate change/energy initiatives can leverage these same factors to motivate employees to take up climate change mitigation efforts. At the interpersonal level, many of our relationships now exist partially or completely on social media platforms. Like it or not, social media is a convenient way to connect with many friends and family quickly, it allows for the easy sharing of content, and it enables users to keep tabs on what their friends are doing in real-time. If you see your friends posting about making real carbon emission reductions, you are more likely to be interested in joining in. So how do we apply energy efficiency initiatives at the organizational and interpersonal levels? Applying Behavior Based Interventions Behavioral interventions are proven methods of achieving significant energy savings. In fact a large portion of utility residential energy efficiency portfolio savings now come from behavior based interventions, primarily in the form of Home Energy Reports. Behavior-based programs are some of the most cost-effective energy efficiency programs. But behavior-based programs need not stop at Home Energy Reports. In fact, ACEEE’s Report titled, “Reducing Energy Waste through Municipally Led Behavior Change Programs (2018)” shows us that a wide variety of behavioral interventions can yield significant energy saving results. The Report provides the following statistics: • Normative comparisons displayed via Home Energy Reports yield 1.2 - 2.2% in electricity savings • Competitions and games can yield up to 14% energy savings for residential electricity, and 1.8 - 21% for commercial electricity • Community based strategies involving social interaction can yield 4.4 - 27% in energy savings • Real-time energy use feedback can yield 1 - 15% energy savings for electricity

Which leads us to our final question - how can we apply behavioral interventions in the context of our organizational and interpersonal spheres of influence? Energy Saving Competitions are Effective, Easy, and Fun Energy Saving Competitions are effective behavioral interventions that can be easily applied in the context of both organizational and interpersonal spheres of influence. Energy Savings Competitions involve users’ real-time electricity and natural gas data, and individual and collective group energy saving goals. You can think of energy saving competitions as being similar to a Fitbit challenge, but instead of steps competitions are measuring kilowatt-hours, therms, and carbon emission reductions. Energy Saving Competitions combine many of the social science principles proven to achieve energy savings, including: competitions and games in the form of individual/team energy savings goals and prizes for top energy savers, community and social interaction through conversation among teammates and competitors, normative comparison in the form of a visible leaderboard showcasing participants and recognizing top energy savers, and real-time energy use feedback in the form of a dynamic leaderboard displaying changes in participants’ energy use. Energy Saving Challenges are also easy to run because their structure is simple. All Energy Saving Competitions at their core involve energy use data, a duration period, energy saving goals, a leaderboard displaying regularly updated results, and some type of prize for top energy savers. This simple structure also allows for many flavors of customization. Organizations can run energy saving competitions amongst their employees measuring each participant’s home energy use, or amongst office teams measuring energy use of each floor in the building, or amongst franchise locations measuring the energy use of multiple company locations. The ability to customize energy saving challenges to fit each specific organization’s needs are endless. Companies and other types of organizations can run energy saving competitions in the same way that they sponsor fitness competitions for their employees.

Energy saving competitions take a traditionally dry topic like energy and turn it into something fun. They are also a win-win for everyone involved. Challenge participants get a chance to save money on their utility bills, win prizes, and feel good knowing they are combating climate change. Similarly challenge organizers (can be any type of organization) can use energy saving competitions to help them meet their sustainability goals, provide community engagement for their employees/members, and recognize and reward those employees/members who make significant carbon emission reductions. Organizations can easily create and maintain energy saving competitions, requiring little in terms of cost, time, and resources. Challenges can be carried out by a variety of organizations targeting different participants specific to their sphere of influence. This is a new distributed approach to behavior-based energy efficiency. Natalie Zandt is the founder & CEO MeterLeader What did you think of this article? Agree? Disagree? Do you have comments to add? Join th the conversation on Energy Central EE community here: https://energycentral.com/c/ee/distributed-behavior-based-energy- efficiency-how-we-can-leverage-spheres-0 ack to top From the AESP Energy Central EE Community Energy Efficiency: Still the Low Hanging Fruit By Fereidoon P. Sioshansi “In the battle against climate change, the world is actively seeking anticyclones. If the ongoing shift from fossil to renewable energy is one of those, another, less energetically publicized but with more attractive financial paybacks, is energy efficiency.” That is the opening line in a recently released report titled “Emissions Anticyclone” by Sebastien Gruter and James Moore of Redburn, a London-based market research firm. It explains, among other things, why energy efficiency gains must almost double to reach the Paris Agreement’s targets and why energy efficiency is the largest and cheapest untapped source of emissions reductions.

The report’s main point is that the carbon reduction impact of the transition from fossil fuels to renewable resources will be greatly amplified if energy is more efficiently utilized – who can argue with that? “If the relationship between GDP and energy consumption holds steady over the next 20 years, we will consume 25% more energy in 2040…(putting) us a long way above climate goals ...” and “complying with the Paris Agreement whilst continuing to increase our wealth would require a material shift in energy mix and a marked step down in energy intensity,” the report said. Redburn’s comprehensive report examines some 2,500 listed companies from all sectors specifically looking at their energy intensity – that is energy used per unit of output. Not surprisingly, it finds that energy-intensive industries such as fossil power generation, marine, steel, airlines, building material – think cement manufacturing – to name the obvious ones, will be under “enormous pressure to lower their energy use and CO2 emissions.”

Assuming a price of €50 ($57) per tonne of CO2, not an unreasonable number, would be a devastating blow to some industries – it would represent 16% of sales for fossil fuel generators, 6% for airlines, but only 2% for major oil and gas companies. It explains why coal mining companies and coal-fired generators are essentially doomed. It also explains why LED lighting manufacturers or those in the business of making efficient Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC), air compressors, building automation, insulation material, high efficiency pumps and motors are likely to prosper as emitting carbon becomes expensive. It explains why older, less efficient planes will remain grounded as the airline industry resumes flying after the pandemic. The rewards in energy efficiency investment, according to Redburn, are hard to pass. Many, including high efficiency motors, drives, compressors, building energy management systems, efficient lighting and HVAC systems have paybacks within 2-3 years under reasonable assumptions. Redburn, whose unbiased original research is used by investment fund managers, examined 3 categories in its report: • The substitute category refers to a technology that replaces a less energy-efficient technology, for example LED versus incandescent lamps; • The energy-centric category refers to a product where energy accounts for a large share of the total cost of ownership whilst representing a meaningful share of the energy consumption in the customer’s process, for example an air compressor; and • The optimizer category refers to a product that helps to optimize energy use, for example, a low- voltage electric drive or motor.

This being a capital goods report, Redburn examines the major stakeholders such as Siemens, Alstom, ABB, Electrolux, and upgrades Epiroc and Schneider to “Buy” because they are deemed to be well- positioned to take advantage of the push towards energy efficiency services. Redburn points out that, “there are two ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining economic growth: we can produce ‘cleaner’ energy that generates fewer emissions – renewable energy, for example – or we can produce more goods or services with less energy.” The report has a number of nuggets that are sometimes lost in such comprehensive studies. For example, it points out that a warmer climate will account for higher energy consumption, all else being equal. “Based on UN projections, we calculate that more than 85% of the global population increase in the next 20 years will come from countries where the average temperature is above 20°C.”

Not surprisingly, energy-intensive countries in hot climates such as those in the Middle East and hot and humid ones such as those in South East Asia will require even more electricity to remain functional (see table). Meteorologists are warning that hot parts of the globe will become more-or-less unbearable, requiring even more air conditioning and water – both highly electricity intensive. Climate change is no longer an abstract concept. Arid parts of the world – for example the Southwest of the U.S. and Australia’s interior – will get drier and warmer. Working outdoor during the midday summer hours in parts of the Middle East and North Africa region, already unbearable, could become fatal. In the grand scheme of things, of course, large listed companies as well as banks and fund managers who invest in them, are increasingly being pressured to report their contribution to climate change, their exposure and what they are doing to address these issues. The report examines energy efficiency’s low hanging fruits – efficient lighting, motors, pumps, HVAC, etc. Redburn focuses on two applications with tremendous potential: lighting and electric motors because 1) they use a lot of electricity; and 2) their energy savings potential is extremely high and easy to capture.

Redburn reports that lighting consumed 20% of world’s electricity as recently as 10 years ago, but this has dropped to 13% today, due to the improved efficiency of lighting fixtures. The U.S. DOE projects more energy savings in the next 15 years as LED penetrates 85% of the installed base by 2035, with 66% of the savings expected in the commercial sector and from street lighting. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) an astonishing 45% of global electricity consumption may be attributed to electric motors, about two-thirds of it in the industrial sector. Even more astonishing is that this percentage is likely to grow as the electrification of the global economy gains momentum. Making electric motors, lighting and HVAC more efficient has never been more critical or profitable. Fereidoon P. Sioshansi is the President of Menlo Energy Economics. What did you think of this article? Agree? Disagree? Do you have comments to add? Join th the conversation on Energy Central EE community here https://energycentral.com/c/ee/energy-efficiency-still-low-hanging- fruit: Back to top

The following executive summaries of current news items were written for Strategies after being compiled from various news sources. Businesses Charge Up Batteries to Corral Power Costs As batteries capable of powering buildings get bigger and cheaper, businesses are increasingly looking to install them to gain more control over their electricity costs. Unlike large battery arrays being built by utilities to feed power to the grid, these batteries are typically being built on site to cater to the needs of individual users. Installing them locally can help companies manage costs by storing power when it is cheaper to produce or buy, and tapping it when wholesale prices go up or there is a power disruption. Asset manager Capital Dynamics broke ground last month on a massive battery system that will allow data-center company Switch Inc. to store solar power and manage the cost of electricity it uses to cool a 1.3-million-square-foot data-server center in Nevada. It will provide 60 megawatts of storage capacity for four hours, making it the largest so-called behind-the-meter battery in the world. The battery system is large enough to help supply the facility with solar energy when the sun isn’t shining, minimizing the company’s reliance on the grid. Switch expects to pay about 5 cents a kilowatt-hour, several cents less than what it would cost to buy power from the local utility, saving the company tens of millions of dollars a year. Utilities across the U.S. are experimenting with electricity prices based on time of use as more solar power is added to the grid, adding to daytime energy supplies. That presents an opportunity for some businesses to save money by storing power throughout the day, when prices are lower, and using it during the evening, when prices are higher. From \"Businesses Charge Up Batteries to Corral Power Costs\" Wall Street Journal (08/10/20) Blunt, Katherine Back to top California Nears Tipping Point on All-Electric Regulations for New Buildings The California Energy Commission (CEC) is working on a 2022 update to the state's Title 24 Building Energy Efficiency Standards that could usher in substantial changes for building construction and performance. The CEC recently received letters from some of the state's biggest utilities calling for an energy code that encourages a transition to all-electric buildings. Data shows that buildings are the second-largest source of carbon emissions in California. Requiring buildings to use only electricity would help the state meet decarbonization goals. Delaying an all-electric construction mandate until the 2025 update cycle would result in 3 million added tons of carbon emissions by 2030. In addition, over $1 billion would need to be spent on new natural gas infrastructure. Stakeholder meetings on the 2022 update is scheduled for late August or early September. Meanwhile, the CEC is scheduled to vote on the matter in July of next year. If they are approved, the new standards would go into effect on January 1, 2023. From \"California Nears Tipping Point on All-Electric Regulations for New Buildings\" Green Tech Media (07/29/20) Gerdes, Justin Back to top A New Model for Valuing Distributed Energy Could Drive Big Changes in California A new model for determining the value of distributed energy resources (DERs) could overhaul the country's largest state-level energy market. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) recently approved changes to its Avoided Cost Calculator (ACC), a key measure of the value of DERs to the

state's electricity grid, calculated over a 30-year time period for each utility and climate zone in the state. These values apply both to DERs that provide energy, such as solar panels or batteries, and those that curb or shift energy demand, including energy efficiency investments, demand response, or time-shifting and grid-flexible loads. The \"costs\" being displaced by new DERs include energy and grid capacity as well as greenhouse gas emissions and grid investments. The ACC was first created to guide how the CPUC and utilities gauge the impact of energy efficiency programs. As behind-the- meter energy resources expand, \"there are some interesting possibilities for using it to value other types of resources,\" says Tom Beach, principal consultant at Crossborder Energy, who collaborated with the Solar Energy Industries Association on updating the ACC. Specifically, the ACC creates hourly values representing \"marginal costs a utility would avoid in any given hour if a distributed energy resource avoided the provision of energy during that hour.\" From \"A New Model for Valuing Distributed Energy Could Drive Big Changes in California\" Greentech Media (07/24/20) St. John, Jeff Back to top Arizona Regulators May Impose Big Boost in Energy Requirements — 100 Percent Clean Energy by 2050 The Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC) has proposed an increase in renewable energy rules that would require utilities to eventually get all their power from carbon-free sources. The ACC proposes 50 percent of the state's energy come from renewable sources by 2030. By 2050, 100 percent of their energy should be free of carbon emissions. In addition, the ACC wants 35 percent of Arizona's energy demand to be met with energy efficiency measures by 2030. The state already passed a rule that requires power companies to get 15 percent of their power from renewable sources by 2025. That rule was enacted by officials in 2006. The new rules would put Arizona more in line with other states like California, New Mexico, Oregon, and Colorado that have set aggressive carbon-free energy goals. From \"Arizona Regulators May Impose Big Boost in Energy Requirements — 100 Percent Clean Energy by 2050\" Arizona Republic (07/30/20) Randazzo, Ryan Back to top Assessing the Value of Battery Energy Storage in Future Power Grids Researchers from MIT and Princeton University have released a paper that details the factors that impact the economic value of battery storage. The researchers used a capacity expansion model called GenX to find the least expensive ways of integrating battery storage in a hypothetical low-carbon power system. Then they studied the role of storage for populated with load and variable renewable energy (VRE) availability profiles in the U.S. Northeast (North) and Texas (South) regions. The researchers discovered that in both regions, the value of battery energy storage generally declines with increasing storage penetration. The paper also says the economic value of storage increases as VRE generation provides an increasing share of the energy supply. However, the economic value of storage falls as storage penetration increases. This is a result of competition between storage resources for the same grid services. The researchers say the study underscores the importance of changing energy market structures or contracting practices to enable storage developers to monetize the value from substituting generation and transmission capacity. From \"Assessing the Value of Battery Energy Storage in Future Power Grids\" MIT News (08/12/20) Luu, Kathryn Back to top

Virginia Takes Historic Steps to Secure a Clean Energy Future Virginia Governor Ralph Northam has signed a bill that creates new energy efficiency standards for the state. The Virginia Clean Economy Act creates a renewable portfolio standard to achieve 30 percent renewable energy by 2030, a mandatory energy efficiency resource standard, and the goal of developing a carbon-free electric grid by 2045. Language included in the bill will also create a program that helps lower energy bills and allows low-income households to take advantage of energy efficiency savings. Additional legislation signed by Northam will lead to development of an energy storage market in Virginia. From \"Virginia Takes Historic Steps to Secure a Clean Energy Future\" Fairfax County Times (08/17/20) Back to top Illinois Program Aims to Match Seniors, Teens to Install Smart, Efficient Devices The Smart Self Reliance Initiative in Illinois has created a program that will help older adults install energy efficient appliances and technology. The program will also provide job training for high school students interested in entering the energy efficiency sector. The Smart Technology Mentors Program was originally slated to run from January to December of this year. However, the coronavirus pandemic forced officials to make a number of changes to the program. It will now launch in January 2021 if the pandemic has faded by then. The program has also temporarily halted on-site visits, focus groups, and other tasks that require person-to-person contact. Once the pandemic has eased, the program will lift these restrictions and operate as originally planned. Doug Newman, founder and executive director of the Smart Self Reliance Initiative, says if the program is successful it could serve as a model for more programs around the country. From \"Illinois Program Aims to Match Seniors, Teens to Install Smart, Efficient Devices\" Energy News Network (07/27/20) Henderson, Audrey Back to top Jevons Paradox The Jevons paradox dictates that efficiency enables growth, yet its paradoxical nature lies in the fact that we tend to assume that the more efficiently we use a resource the less of it we will use. From a whole-economy standpoint, efficiency gains translate to more production and consumption, which increases the extraction of resources and waste generation. Real-world evidence supports this argument, while environmental policy targeting efficiency gains alone does not benefit the environment. Massachusetts Institute of Technology researchers discovered that as industrial processes have become more efficient at using multiple materials and energy sources, their overall use has expanded in nearly every case, apart from materials whose use has been limited or banned for reasons of toxicity. The solution is to treat resources such as fossil fuels with the same caution and limits as toxic materials, and use efficiency gains to stay within those limits. Establishing legal constraints is only part of the solution, as society also can purposefully choose less-efficient production processes, reversing the Jevons paradox by restricting the potential scale of the economy. From \"Jevons Paradox\" Resilience.org (06/17/2020) Burkhart, Dick Back to top

News summaries © copyright 2020 SmithBucklin Editorial Committee Adeline Lui, Editor, adeline@aesp.org Chris Baggett, board member Jeff Ihnen, Chair, board member Sherry McCormack, board member Tracy Narel, member Laura Orfanedes, board member Elizabeth Titus, member Greg Wikler, board member Click here to unsubscribe. 15215 S. 48th St., Suite 170 Phoenix, AZ 85044 PHONE: 480-704-5900 - www.aesp.org