150 information to the people, why not give information freely on demand or display it in suitable public places in an inexpensive manner, as the advertisement costs are relay finally borne by the consumer himself. On the face of it, many of these ideas are wonderful. But in real life the behavior pattern of people are very complex and there are many individual variations. Not everybody has the pat ience to thumb through a directory to search out different products .Therefore , advertising becomes a useful source of information . Rural and urban dwellers, poor and rich , literate and illiterate , all require a flow of information in various forms to know ,to choose and to feel that they are not being left behind . Besides they help people save t ime which would be used in searching out informat ion . Regarding the contents and the ethics of these message, most healthy societies learn how to come to a dynamic equilibrium. It is very interesting to note that as the physical production in the agriculture and manufacturing sector expands, the demands on marketing communication grow, thus providing people additional employment opportunities. This is an area which can be given a thrust. The future scenario of marketing communication Among the newer technologies which are likely to enter this area are: composing ; multi –addition; portable IT technologies ; automatic language translation ; hand –held terminals ; satellite digital audio –broadcasting ; three –dimensional workstations ; exemption for access control ; system for viewer censoring ; stereo music audio and interactive random data graphical user interface . It is essential that Indian industries work in advance to acquire or develop technologies in these areas so that they can be market leaders in India and possibly export to other countries as well . If they do not take action now, it is likely that those in need of providing such services will import products. The business volumes in many of these areas range from a few tens of crores to several thousand crores per year .Table 8.1 provides a brief picture.
151 TABLE 8.1 Projected Volume of Communication Business 2020 (Annual turnover Rs. crores) 1995 Activity 2020 Marketing services 60 Market research 8001000 3500 Advertising 1800020000 Mass media: 1500 press (Circulation /sale) 65007000 80001000 1500 TV (Software) 70008000 200 Cable operations (Annual turnover Rs. Crores) Entertainment media: 1000 Cinema (production & 40005000 collections) 300 Music 25003000 35 Multimedia 10001200
152 35000 Telecom Telephone &Data 600000 700000 Notes: (1) All estimates are at 1995 prices. (2) Cinema includes production meant for Cable and TV . There is some overlap between media and entertainment . (Source: TIFAC technology vision 2020 : Services ) Marketing logistics, trading and distribution Having communicated information about products and goods, it is necessary to reach them to the consumer. Trading has been the important services activit y that fulfilled this need . Services like wholesale and retail trade, warehousing, transportation and distribution which link producers /manufacturers with the consumers are the components of marketing logistics. These services accounted for 21.5 per cent of GDP in 199394. Marketing logistics are required for three broad categories , namely agro –based food products, major materials and intermediate goods like coal, steel, cement, etc. and consumer goods like durables, textiles, so on. The trading and distribution of the above categories is done by traditional methods of commissioning wholesale distributors at selected centers and a large number of retailers. Due to increase in GDP, a large volume of product changes are expected within a decade in trade and marketing logistics. Future scenario in trading Some f the traditional outlets in village and small towns are one –stop shops. Though options may be limited, they can meet a range of requirements. In most of the advance countries this feature has taken the shape of big retail channels and shopping malls, which are now catching on, in the bigger Indian cities. By going to one place, one can get almost any item of domestic consumption. As the production of goods and their consumption grows, which is definitely envisioned for our country , these shopping
153 malls and big retail stores will be in position . Let our technologist and industrialists dream and think of business opportunities in equipping such big malls and maintaining them. There is no reason why many of these accessories and fitting cannot be made in India. We emphasize this because at present several items for our five –star hotels are imported since those of comparable quality are not available in the country .It is essential that a country that can tame atomic energy or produce complex metallurgical product, should be able to make relatively simpler products using Indian knowhow and designs. Coming to packing, wherever possible we can avoid the older route of plastics, though they are necessary for some products. Bio –degradable tapioca –linked paper packages have been developed in our country. Why not try many such innovations instead of adopting mere imitations of other advanced countries? Another important technological input in marketing logistics, trading and distribution is going to be satellite communication and computer networks. We often forget we are a vast country of about 3.2 million sq. km, where goods move by trucks or railway. A fast –growing, high volume economy cannot sustain its distribution channels without a first –rate computer network and satellite communication channels. Why satellite? Computer network are possible even wit h fibres. But a truck, goods train or a ship each requires different links. Mobile communication can be established. Satellite navigational System helps in pinpo int ing the posit ion as well. Mobilit y o f businesspersons and traders is also crucial. The way they have taken to cellular or mobile phones is remarkable. Once we provide good computer networks as well as regular and mobilecommunications,we ourselves will be surprised by the ingenious use people can put them to. The barrier between rural and urban areas will be broken by the service sector in communications. Future scenario in marketing logistics Greater speed in transportation will be a key demand, as alsothe demand for larger loads having greater reach. Specializedcontainers, often with controlled atmospheric conditions (forcontrol,etc.)will be required. In addition there will arise demand for a single container that can be sent by air, road , rail or ship. This is called capabilityfor multimodal transportation. Internationally many such standardized containers are used. It will be advantageous if Indian industries begin acquiring such a capability now and adapt it to
154 our conditions. There will be a great demand for such containers in about five to ten years. With larger cargoes, requirements for better cargo handilingfacilities, modernized packaging systems and loading and unloading systems will increase. A natural requirement would then be for large modern warehouse. Once these are built and since there will be pressure at the time of delivery, the connect ivit y between farms, factories, godowns, warehouse, head offices, field offices supermarkets and and other retail outlets will be crucial. These connect ivit ies will be by road, rail or waterways as well as through data/ voice communication. An important point needs to be emphasized here which appilies to all areas, and particularly to this area of services. Simple training with visuals and in the workers’ languages is what is required to ensure that people perform well. If we do not invest in our workforce and treat them as unskilled labour which can be drawn on merely for manual labor, their performance will also be similar. There is great scope for educating people for maximize efficient use of resources. For instance, 5percent of fuel used for vehicles can be saved if drivers are given proper training in Correct and energyefficient driving habits: don’t press the accelerator unnecessarily, avoid breaking suddenly, slow down earlier,etc.but does a normal driver know that these factors are with the thermodynamics o f engines and fuel burning? Similarly, if the stove’s flame is kept at a level that will prevent it lapping around the sides of the vessel and just be under the pot, though it may take few minutes more to cook food, there will be a considerable saving of precious gas. Such wastage exacts a heavy price on the economy. Marketing communication skills can be deployed very effectively to impart continual training to our workforce and curb such wastage. That will be an excellent service industry itself. Trade promotion services New global trade arrangements are expected to add US$ 213 274 billion annually to world income. The GATT secretariat projects the largest increase at 60 percent of world trade in the area of textiles and clothing followed by agriculture, forestry and fishery products. The potential gain of Indian exports is estimated at $2.7 billion (the current export is $20 billion). Effective trade promotion services would be required to tap new markets and increase our exports.
155 Shortterm activities (five years) should include strengthening IT for trade and building necessary infrastructure for meeting customer requirements. Medium/longterm activities(ten to twenty years) should include large global databases, communication links and improved transportation and banking facilities. Tourism Most people are familiar with the traditional concepts of Tourism: hotels, access to easy transport, special places to visit, starting from the TajMahal, Goa, Kanyakumari, the beautiful NorthEast, coastal India and the islands, the deserts and the Himalayas. But the modernday tourist expects something more and different. He comes here not merely to eat, drink and make merry. Many want to learn more about the people they meet and the places they visit. We can call it ‘cultural’ or ‘knowledge oriented’ tourism. There is plenty of scope for meeting such a requirement through the help of information technology. Multipresentations can be made available in most tourist spots on the music, culture, history, biodiversity and other features of that could open by giving foreign tourists glimpses of such information, including local maps, by electronic mail even as they are planning their trips! The possibilities are many; it only remains to try them. Human resources development As must have become selfevident, the services sector is dominated by human needs, comforts and convenience. Naturally, development of human resources becomes an important requirement for having a services sector. We have shown a few examples in earlier sections. They very activity of human resource development and continous skill upgradation in the face of changingtechnologies or preferably in advance preparation of likely changes in technologies and consumption styles is going to be another major component of the services sector.all of us have to unlearen a lot, learn a lot,continue to learn a lot, use new aids in learing, teach others and so on. As the UN Human Development Report of 1995 makes clear, massive investments in human capital and development of managerial and technological skills are needed in developing countries if they are to improve their peoples’ living standards. India itself is ranked very low, at 134t h place out of 175 countries, below countries like Malaysia,Thailand and Srilanka. As much as 73 per cent of our population has no proper
156 sanitation, and 21 per cent lack access to drinking water. The following table sets out the future challenges and Priorities TABLE 8.2 HRD: Future Challengea and priorities _____________________________________________________ serial Activity Timeframe no for completion (in years) ______________________________________________________ 1 Improvement in primary and secondary education quality and competence 510 of teachers Entrepreneurship Oriented education 510 Use of multimedia and 1015 Other mass media technologies 2 empowerment of women social engineering with widespread social awareness 510 and campaign Technological interventions For improved women’s 515 education 3 investment in science and technology Reorientation of R&D Activities more focussed 510
157 172 _______________________________________________________ serial Activity Timeframe no for completion (in years) _______________________________________________________ Leadership training and Skills development for Institution building for 510 National laboratories and Institutions Devising HRD programmes And strategies for national 510 Laboratories and institutions 4 Entrepreneurship development Development of entrepreneurial 510 Skills and employment Generation by the Government NGOs and financial institutions 510 Creation of entrepreneurial attitude And spirit, achievement motivation etc. 510 Improved availability and management of credit facilities 510 5 Human resources development Role of private agencies and NGOs Development of entrepreneurial ` Skills and institution building 515 Capabilities of NGOs Improvement of performance by 6 Government agencies and institutions HRD programmes related to 510 Bringing in attitudinal and Behavioural changes of Government personnel
158 173 ______________________________________________________ serial Timeframe no activity for completion Infusing professionalism in Government services 510 Development of less manpower And improved mechanization 510 In government services concern for the environment Improved environmental Awareness and education among Common people through mass Communication technologies And contact programmes 510 ___________________________________________________ source:TIFAC report Technology vision 2020:services It needs also to be realized that if we are to effectively develop our human resources we must decentralized the HRD function so that selfcorrecting learning systems develop at the local level. Modern technologies including IT help the process very greatly and provide new opportunities.Technical and management consultancy services HRD is itself a knowledge and skill based activity in great demand in the technology society of today. But the complex technologies in operation and the continual demands for them in daytoday life ranging from domestic operations to defence, Require that there are no critical failures. In fact, the objective of most manufacturers and service providers is to provide maintenancefree systems. Earlier, rigorous demands for quality assurance and reliability were restricted mainly to the areas of standards are demanded in several civilian applications. On the one hand, technological progress is reducing the product lifein human bodies. .Nowadays, the highest specifications of quality cycle to a few years.earlier, people were happy with a mean time between failures(MTBF) of a few or several thousand hours.that means any equipment once
159 delivered or repaired would perform without any major problem for a few or several thousand hours,which was specified as the MTBF.The present day trend is not to have a failure during the entire product life cycle,which may be only a few years because of costant updatiung. Those who buy personal computers in India will know the rate of change of models with substantive performance changes. How does one assure rigorous these standards? Naturally by incorporating many of the design, technological and management features used in defence or space systems. Earlier we used to purchase military standard or space quality components at specially high prices and call other components for ground equipment as the ‘garden variety’. Now the standards and reliability figures of these garden variety components have increased manifold. This is one reason why military procurement in development countries is nowadays sourced from co mmo n civilian sources as well because there is an allround increase in reliability and quality. In this way, by spreading the marketbase and their own production volumes, both sectors gain. All this means greater and greater emphasis on design, Rigorous review of production systems even before hardware Is procured, severe control of standards and specifications of Inputs to production, continuous monitoring and testing of processes, and various tests and checks on products. Thus the modern demands on technical consultancy, testing, calibration, and certification of processes as well as various management consultancies required ti handle these complexities, are ever on the increase. Skills demanded for such tasks range from technical knowledge to data entry to meticulous analysis of data, to having good managerial systems. India has a whole set of capabilities in all these areas thanks to its human resources base. This whole area of services can emerge as a major source of employment and wealth generation. Indians not only to the Indian industry but can become a can offer such services global platform for providing services in various aspects of testing, calibrat ion and technical consultancy. In order to realize this natural potential, we need to provide allround avenues for our people to upgrade their knowledge base and skills. Information technology provides just one element in the whole chain of sills and infrastructures requirements. Some of there projects can be seen in tables 8.3 and 8.4
160 TABLE 8.3 Consultancy: Technical and management Strategies and Priorities for the Future _______________________________________________________ Serial scenario Likely Timeframe No (in years) 1 with the increasing level of specialized Knowledge, organizations will seek 510 More and more assistance from external Sources (technical consultants) rather than Depending only on ‘inhouse’ capabilities, Retraining, redevelopment, reengineering 2 Technical consultancy functions will Be greatly supported by information’s 1015 Collated from specialized database; creation And marketing of database as a lucrative Business 3 The focus will shift from pedagogy to More specific and specialized training Right from undergraduate levels in Education and in management education 510 4 The key sectors like infrastructure (power, Ports, water management, telecom, housing Etc.), natural, resources (mining, oil and gas Exploration, water resources, etc.) And services Will record high growth and call for 510 Technical consultancy support Serial Scenario Likely Timeframe No (in years) 5. Technical consultancy will be sought 1015 For applicationoriented new materials Development suitable for high temperature, Corrosion, erosion and wear resistance 6. Consultancy related to computer technologies 510 Will be increasingly related to systems integration And applicationspecific package development With the involvement of area experts 7. Safety, health and environment will emerge 510 As important areas for consultancy inputs
161 8. The technical consultancy sector may be 510 Accorded industry status in view of financial Assistance etc and promoted with adequate Fiscal incentives 9. An efficient and unified coding and 510 Classification system will have to be Evolved for an effective assimilation of the Vast knowledge base Source: TIFAC Technology Vision 2020: Services TABLE 8.4 Management Consultancy: Strategies and Priories for the Future Serial Activates Likely Timeframe No (in years) 1. Consultancy for retraining, redeployment 510 And business process reengineering Of client organization Services as People’s Wealth Serial Activities Likely Timeframe No (in years) _______________________________________________________________________ 2. Consultancy for diversification, joint 510 Ventures and business alliances for client Organizations 3. Consultancy, in mergers and acquisitions, 1015 Divestments, downsizing of client Organizations 4. Consultancy in outsourcing, franchising, 510 Strategic business unit concept for client Client organizations 5. Use of proprietary and public domain 510 Databases by the consultants 6. Increased application of modeling and 510 Simulation techniques in problem solving By the consultants 7. A shift from pedagogy to practical problem 510 Solving and experience sharing in
162 Management education 8. International business, strategic 515 Management technology and R&D Management, quality management, Environmental management will Be future thrust areas in consultancy 9. Training and skills development based on 510 Selftraining system, multimedia devices For client organizations 10. Agribusiness, biotech applications, consumer 510 Products, infrastructure (power, telecom, Roads, transportartion, ports etc), IT strategy Will dominate the consultancy business in Future Source: TIFAC, Technology Vision 2020: Services Testing, certification and calibration services: Strategies and priorities for the future These are very important areas with rapid technological growth. They are vital in international transactions as well. The Projections are as in table8.5 TABLE 8.5 Priorities for the future Serial Activities Timeframe No for completion (In years) 1. Accreditation bodies for qualifying various 5 Calibration/testing agencies to conform to International norms themselves 2. Accreditation systems to be initiated for 57 Inspection/certification agencies 3. Financial incentives and infrastructural 58 Support to quality assurance, testing and Certification as an important business entity for its fast proliferation across the country 4. Facilitation of technical cooperation 58 And Mouse between India and International accrediting agencies for
163 Quality business 5. Improved awareness for insurance 810 Companies towards calculation of Premium, etc.based on product quality, Safety norms, preservation needs and Other environmental regulations Serial Activities Timeframe No for completion (In years) 6. Testing and certification for gems and 510 Jeweler for the international market 7. Establishment of voluntary, nonprofit 510 Organizations for accreditation in various Areas for specialization 8. Privatization and autonomy in maintaining 1520 Calibration facilities, test houses, inspection Agencies and accreditation authorities Governed by the market economy Source: TIFAC, Technology Vision 2020: Services Government administration Traditionally the role of the government administration was confined to certain essential services like defense, law and order, etc. With independence, the Indian government has Launched a process of planned economic and social development towards improvement of living standards. In this process private sector activities in a large number of areas were Regulated, and the government itself became one of the economic agents by establishing many commercial and industrial enterprises. Such activities widened the scope of government administration for policy formulation, framing of rules and regulations and implementation of policy. The proliferation of government agencies has meant a rising cost of administration. This enormous strain on the system and the change in the global economic environment has led to economic reforms. The economic policy reforms aimed at redefining the role of government administration through dismant ling the regulatory framework in many econo mic sectors. The purpose is to integrate the Indian economy with the global economy for efficient use
164 of available natural and human resources. The Panchayati Raja systems offer a new dimension. The strategies to be adopted are shown in table 8. TABLE 8. Strategies and Priorities for the Future Serial Scenario Likely Timeframe No (in years) 1. Government administration to 1015 Undergo a radical change towards service Orientation for ‘facilitation’, from action As ‘administrators’ to ‘managers’ and ‘Team players’ 2. Instead of exercising controls and curbs, 515 The government will function by regulation And adopt a promotional role 3. There will be a greater transparency in 510 Government functioning 4. The government will need improved 515 Access to information for an effective decision Making process 5. The decision making and planning processes 510 In the government to involve more and More area specialists inducted from major Segments of society like R&D, industry, Consultancy, academia, NGOs, sociologists And others 6. Towards an effective integration of the 510 Indian economy with the global one, the Government has to keep abreast with International developments and reorient its Policies and practices Serial Scenario Likely Timeframe No (in years) 7. In tandem with the developments and 1015 Demands in the international area, the Government has to forge close and cohesive
165 Linkages in the decision making process From federal to state and grassroots level Aspirations 8. International trade practices like IPR, 510 Pesticides residue, product quality, etc. and Other crucial issues like employment of child Labor, violation of human rights, etc. would Have significant influence on government Policies and the planning process 9. Keeping in view the single most important 515 Agenda of the Indian economic reforms and A better quality of life, the government has to Accord top priority to infrastructure (port, Roads, power, telecom, etc.) Development 10. The radical changes in the government 515 Functioning will warrant specialized Training, retraining and skills development Of the personnel employed Source: TIFAC Technology Vision 2020:Services Security services Security services cover national internal security, internal security of commerce and industry and security of the civil sector. Traditionally, national security used intensive manpower rather than technology. But it is currently essential that security services acquire stateoftheart technology and all R&D efforts must be pursued to effect the change. Also technically trained personnel should be recruited in large numbers. Internal security’s main role lies in protecting the people against attacks by terrorists and criminals. The security forces need sophisticated instruments for early detection and neutralization of bombs. Electronics, computers, databases, hectare essential for tracing criminals, the detection of white collar crime, prevention of industrial espionage, etc. To face all these new challenges, security services have to be modernized Through largescale adoption of science and technology. The implementation in various areas except defense are shown in
166 Table 8.7 Security Services Serial Area Technological Implications No 1. Border security 1. Sensors of all types: seismic, Thermal, infrared and Electronic are needed 2. Optical equipment for long Range surveillance 3. Satellite surveillance 4. Tamperproof documentation, Infrared, ultraviolet and Radiography examination of Passports and visas 5. Computerized access control Systems including portable Radio computer terminal 2. Prevention of entry of 1. Metal detectors Harmful substances into 2. Explosive detectors The country 3. Drug detectors 4. Poison, gas, etc. detectors 3. Explosive detection and 1. Explosive detectors Neutralization 2. Explosive neutralization/ Disruption detection equipment 4. Prevention of sabotage 1. Access control systems 2. Detectors of various types 3. Arson control systems 5. Prevention of industrial 1. Data protection equipment Espionage 2. Sophisticated access control systems 3. Behavioral science capabilities to detect ‘moles’ and ‘unfaithful’ 4. Antieavesdropping devices to prevent bugging, telephone tapping, fax interception, etc. 5. Sweeping devices and direction finders
167 6. Prevention of whitecollar crime 1. Tamper proof systems 2. Builtin safeguards in credit cards, account Transfers etc. 3. Technical inspection to detect malfunctioning of mechanical devices dealing with money 7. Protection of common people and VIP’s 1. Alarm systems 2. Electronic fence systems 3. Bulletproof cars 4. Systems to neutralize electronically and radio controlled devices 5. Detection of incendiary devices ________________________________________________________________________ __________ Source: TIFAC, Technology Vision 2020:Services Other services We have seen only a few major possibilities in the above Descriptions. This is an area, which can grow depending on the imagination and enterprise of our people. For example by 2010, India will have a large number of old persons, who are well –to –do and staying alone because their children may be in different parts of India and the world. The who le set of services required for them will be an essential social concern. It can also be a good business. The services sector can also be used to earn considerable foreign exchange. In all these there are a number of enabling technology, which play a key role. We need to master them. Role of IT in services sector As an example of role of IT in the services sector, we give the following table:
168 TABLE 8.8 IT Applications in the Services Sector: Future Scenario for India Serial Future Technologies Likely Timeframe No of Introduction(in years ) 1 Network Automatic Teller Machine (ATMS) 510 2 Smart phones for home banking operations 1015 3 ‘Virtual’ branches of bank operating from 1015 Customer Activated Terminals (CAT) or a kiosk 4 Debit cards for Electronic Fund Transfer 1015 At Point of Sale (EFTPOS) 5.Smart cards with built – in microchips for 510 Electronic cash, pay phones etc 6 Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) for 510 Paperless banking transactions 7 Image processing 510 8 Expert system and neural networks for credit 1015 Risk appraisal, monitoring/ prediction of Stock price movement, detection of credit Card fraud 9 Business process reengineering, training and skills 515 Development for absorption of new technologies 10 Information security for confidentiality, prevention 510 Of data corruption and fraudulent practices 11 Legal aspects for paperless and electronic 510 Financial transactions 12 Single optical fiber connection to homes to 1015 Blur the differences between communications And infotainment cables offering a whole range Of services like home shopping, music and movies On demand, interactive TV 13 Telemarketing and visual shopping will be in 510 Great demand 14 Online electronic newspapers and magazines 510 Will dominate the print media 15 Multimedia technology and virtual reality to 510 Emerge as the major medium of advertisement 16 Availability of interactive television and user 10`15 Controlled on demand interactive advertising 17 Direct broadcast satellites, PCs for reading 510
169 Electronic books, digital cameras for storing, Viewing and editing still photographs on discs To be available 18 Barcoding to emerge as an important device for payment Processing, accounting and inventory management. 510 19 Decentralized warehouses to act as hubs for rural Distribution to be networked to manufactures, material 1015 Suppliers, etc 20 Complete networking of supply chain viz. retailers, Distributors, warehouses, transporters, Distributors, 1015 Manufactures, material suppliers etc. 21 Use of demographic database for age and sex composition, Income levels and distribution, regional disparities, fertility And mortality rates, incidence of diseases, life expectancy, 1015 Etc. will come in handy for designing new insurance Products and services. _______________________________________________________________________ Courtesy S. Bissau Source: Information Today & Tomorrow, Vol.16, No 3,1997 As a country of one billion, we should gear ourselves to take up the opportunities Offered by the services sector in our march towards an India where every Indian will have wealth and wellbeing.
170 Chapter 9 _______________________________________ Strategic Industries Strength respects strength A.P.J. Abdul Kalama Strategy means generalship or the art of conducting a campaign and maneuvering an army or execution of a plan of action in business or politics. In modern usage, however it has come to denote the means used to gain a position of decisive advantage. The word strategy is also used when speaking of planning for the long term; that which is done on a shortterm basis becomes ‘tactial’. Thus, when we use the term strategic industries, we are thinking in the context of industries give India a decisive advantage over a broad range of areas, and not merely in military terms. In the period following the Second World War, as nations have focused on the development of their economics, security has come to mean more than just protecting borders with military forces. Other forms of security have come to be of as much importance. Food security The availability of food s a critical factor in the wellbeing of any nation, one that Even developed countries cannot afford to ignore .For a country like India with a Large population the task of maintaining a regular supply of food in a stable, consistent And a viable manner to its people, irrespective of the vagaries of the weather and other natural calamities, is itself a stupendous task. Measures aimed at ensuring such unhindered supply fall under steps aimed towards ‘food security’. Economic security Economic security or, simply stated, the security of a steady rate of economic growth along with a continual spread of benefits to the people is becoming important. It is a complex phenomenon, which not merely concerns the fiscal policy or behaviors of financial inst itutions but also touches upon the very structure of the economy and po lit y. In the search for economic growth, seek to continuously expand the market for their
171 products. Developed countries achieve this by expanding their activities in several parts of the glo be through mult inat ional or transnat ional co mpanies. They also form visible or invisible cartels to have preferred access to many markets. In addition, they also continually improve their technological strengths and provide machinery and know how to others at very high price. Their knowledgeintensive and technologyintensive activit ies are called ‘high valueadded products’. Much of the more routine act ivit ies are transferred by these multinationals to developing countries in order to derive the advantage of their locations, cheap labor and various other tax incentives. But whenever developing countries have to import technology and know how from the developed countries, they often have to pay a huge sum because of the value addition to the already exploited knowledge. There is no easy method of working out this value addition because often data on how this is calculated, or how various costs are apportioned by different multinational companies is confidential. Thus, developing countries often pay a very high price for old technological inputs and in return have to sell much more goods and services to balance the high price of technology imports. This exerts a continuous pressure to export bills are constantly rising because of the continual input of technological up gradations flowing from the developed countries. This is what is generally called an exportled economy. Some of the foreign exchange required to maintain this importexport balance comes through foreign investors who invest in physical assets in the country such as factories, plants, offices and laboratories, or through investments in stocks and companies. There are also special developmental ‘loans given by bodies like the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund. If for some period the imports greatly exceed the exports or if during the period some withdrawals of foreign investment take place, fear of a currency crisis ensues. In other words, most developing countries, which are basing their strategy o f growth on an exportled economy often, find strategy of maintaining a precarious economic balance. We are witnessing this in Far Eastern countries, where recent events show how a single developed nation, which has tremendous investment and business in a developing country, can cause its economy to collapse in a matter of weeks. If transactions were conducted purely on economic and market considerations, even such a tightrope walk might be possible. One would learn to cope with the rapid
172 changes that such a situation creates. But the reality is far more complicated. There are various commercial pressures and interests, geopolitical considerations besides other disturbances over and above the inherent instabilities of such a situation. A crucial stabilizing factor to tackle such situations is for a country to possess the necessary technological strengths. That is the main insurance against global pressures. Real economic security is assured through technology strengths in areas, which are important to the economy. Critical technologies for India A country takes a long time to develop technological strengths. What is important is that it concentrates on a few crucial or critical technologies, which can give it a described advantage in meeting the kind of economic instability, described above? It is interesting to note the list of critical technologies in the report of the Gas’s National Critical Technologies Panel in March 1991. The criteria used for the selection are given in table 9.1. Table 9.1 NATIONAL NEEDS Criteria Description Industrial competitiveness Technologies that improve US Competitiveness in world markets through new Products, introduction and improvements in The cost, quality and performance of existing Products National Defense Technologies that have an important impact On US National defense through Improvements in performance, needs cost, Reliability or reducibility of defense systems. National Security Technologies that reduce dependence on Foreign Sources, lower energy costs, or Improve energy Efficiency. IMPORTANCE/CRITICALITY
173 Quality of life Ability to make strong contributions to health, Human welfare and the environment both Domestically and worldwide Opportunity to lead markets Ability to exert and sustain national Leadership in a Technology that is of Paramount importance to the economy or National defense. Strategic Industries Criteria Description Performance/quality/ Ability to cause revolutionary or evolutionary Productivity improvement improvements over current products or processes In turn leading to economic or national defense Benefits. Leverage Potential that Government R & D investment will Stimulate private sector investment in Commercialization or likelihood that success in The technology will stimulate success in other Technologies, products or markets. MARKET SIZE/DIVERSITY Vulnerability Potentially serious damage may be caused if a Technology is held exclusively by the other countries And not the United states. Enabling/pervasive Technology forms the foundation for many other Technologies or exhibits size/strong linkages to many Segments of the economy. Size of ultimate market Ability to exert a major economic impact through The expansion of existing markets, creation of new Industries, generation of capital or creation of Employment opportunities. Source: Report of the National Critical Technologies Panel, March 1991.
174 It can be seen from the above that the criteria for selection of critical technologies mentions national defense only as one element. Other criteria include their ability to enhance the quality of life for the American people, industrial competitiveness and energy security. Americans are acutely aware of their dependence for oil on the Gulf countries. What would be the critical technologies in the Indian context? Would it mean defense technologies alone? Definitely not! Would it mean space or atomic energy alone? Definitely not! Elements related to these areas would be certainly included, but there should be much more. Besides, even in the sectors of defense, space or atomic energy there are a number of items, which are not that, critical in the sense that they would be available relatively easily from several sources. Many of the items would not involve numerous complex operations or be very costly; other items could be relatively easily stockpiled for future consumption. We should then be selective in what we term as critical technologies. Defense supplies in India Let us look at some facts and figures about the nature of the defense equipment and supplies in India. The indigenous production is about 30 percent and there is a general feeling that this figure is ought to be brought up to 70 per cent in the longterm interest of our defense needs. In order to achieve this we need to take several steps towards developing certain technological processes in our industries. However, most of these activities would not really qualify as critical technologies. The absence of certain process in India so far has often been due to the same reasons as it is in the commercial sector: insufficient attention to absorb, adapt and to upgrade imported knowhow and equipment. In the process, we have become stagnant technologically and industrially, and have missed out on indigenous improvements to imported systems. In most of these areas, it is possible for us to achieve selfreliance in a relatively short period provided defense R&D, industries, the defense forces and other policy makers work together as a mission. This will not be a cakewalk, but with a concerted effort to build a few prototypes, modify them and subsequently go into production we can meet our needs. We have experience in most
175 Element. Other criteria include their ability to enhance the quality of life for the American people, industrial competit iveness and energy securit y. Americans are acutely aware of their dependence for oil on the Gulf countries. What would be the critical technologies in the Indian context? Would it mean defense technologies alone? Definitely not! Would it mean space or atomic energy alone? Definitely not! Elements related to these areas would be certainly included, but there should be much more. Besides, even in the sectors of defense, space or atomic energy there are a number of items, which are not that, critical in the sense that they would be available relatively easily from several sources. Many of the items would not involve numerous complex operations or be very costly; other items could be relatively easily stockpiled for future consumption. We should then be selective in what we term as critical technologies. Defense supplies in India Let us look at some facts and figures about the nature of the defense equipment and supplies in India. The indigenous production is about 30 percent and there is a general feeling that this figure is ought to be brought up to 70 per cent in the longterm interest of our defense needs. In order to achieve this we need to take several steps towards developing certain technological processes in our industries. However, most of these activities would not really qualify as critical technologies. The absence of certain process in India so far has often been due to the same reasons as it is in the commercial sector: insufficient attention to absorb, adapt and to upgrade imported know how and equipment. In the process, we have become stagnant technologically and industrially, and have missed out on indigenous improvements to imported systems. In most of these areas, it is possible for us to achieve selfreliance in a relatively short period provided defense R&D, industries, the defense forces and other policy makers work together as a mission. This will not be a cakewalk, but with a concerted effort to build a few prototypes, modify them and subsequently go into production we can meet our needs. We have experience in most Of the industries of this sector. There is a tendency even in advanced countries to source out defense equipment and products from many assemblies and subassemblies drawn from the civilian sector making other similar products. Such an approach can also be
176 adopted to speedily achieve the goal of selfreliance in at least 70 per cent of products and systems for the defense forces. Is that enough? Even while this target is important, there are some critical areas in which India will not be given technologies easily by other countries, irrespective of whether or not India signs some of the existing unequal treaties. That is because they are critical technologies not only for defense, but also for several other purposes, as shown in table 9.1. Some examples would be submicron level microelectronics or advanced transgenic biotechnology. The countries, which possess submicron technologies, for example, can gain a top position globally. Advanced transgenic biotechnology can lead to global markets in agriculture, food products and medicines. The Indian space programmed Let us look at the Indian space programmed. Several elements required for launch vehicles including the materials, propellants, guidance and control and so on have been indigenously developed and are manufactured here. India has faced difficulties in achieving all this, as for example, when it attempted to speed up the schedule for the launch of the Resynchronized Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) through import of cryogenic technology. Some countries were willing to sell it to us. But when one of them agreed to the sale of a full engine, other countries pressurized them into not selling it to India. In a few years India should acquire capability in this field. Nevertheless, as far as satellites are concerned, many of the electronic components and some materials are still sourced outside the country, through India has successfully made many of the assemblies: control system components, guidance systems, sensors, various other electromechanical and electronic parts. The dependence for many o f the space / spherical qualit y electronic components can, however, still be a problem for the Indian satellite programmed, especially when it must be competitive internationally. The end of the Cold War has led to shrinkage of markets for aerospace and defense industries in the developed world. They are in stiff competition with each other and do not want other countries or companies to emerge as suppliers of satellites as their own market shares would be further reduced. It is in this context, in our endeavor to achieve
177 this commercialization of our strength in satellite technology, that many components required for Indian satellites may still have to be considered critical. The nuclear programmed Atomic energy programmers have been subject to severe restrictions for very obvious reasons as the Department of Atomic Energy in becoming selfreliant in areas in which only a few countries have such capability. There are a number of items in the atomic energy programmed, which are being made indigenously. However, commercial aspects of exploiting nuclear capabilities, especially for power generation programmers, have been recently given high priority. Given the overall energy situation in India, the use of nuclear power in some measure is inescapable even while thermo and hydropower continue to be the dominant elements. Even to meet commerciallevel powergenerat ion capability, with its commensurate safety and nuclear waste management arrangements. Thus in the Indian context energy security is also crucial, perhaps much more than it is for the USA, because India imports a good part of its crude oil requirements, paying for it with precious foreign exchange. The growth of nuclear technology indeed has become a trendsetter for many high technologists in India. Dualuse technology This discussion of strategic industries mainly concerns defense, space, atomic energy and also critical technology areas, which have potential of multiple uses in the defense and civilian commercial sector in the future. Not that other areas do not have multiple uses. For example, canning or processing of food or preservat ion o f food is equally applicable to the civilian sector, to the export sector or for supplies to the defense forces. But since these are relatively wellstabilized technologies, which can be handled by inputs from several sources, including, often, imports in the first instance, we are not covering such dualuse items. Newly emerging technologies such as robotics or artificial intelligence, which would have a crucial impact on future defense operations and also on many industrial sectors if they have are to be really competitive, merit a closer look. As we look at the
178 emerging manufacturing scenario, it will contain many elements of artificial intelligence and robotics in the mediumterm future. If Indian products have to be competitive worldwide and if we aim to earn substantially through valueadded products and services, India has to master these technologies. To import them fully from others will often not be costeffective since the competing foreign countries would not like to part with their best technologies. Often enough not even the better ones will be sold. Thus, even if we do manage to purchase some technologies from them, they will be at a point of technological obsolescence where one has to struggle with very low profit margins, which is not good for any business. The technology areas critical for the growth of strategic industries for India, given the above broad considerations, are in the aviation and in propulsion sector, high and electronics, sensors, space communication and remote sensing, critical materials and processing, robotics and artificial intelligence. Before looking into some of these technologies, it is worth understanding something about the defense technologies and industries as they pertain to India. In India, both the Defense Research & Development Organization and defense industries started experiencing certain restrictions on acquisition of technology and products from the developed countries, particularly from 1985 onwards. At the same time, developed countries wanted to make India one of their main customers for arms and defense equipment. Obsolescent systems were offered for sale coupled with licensed production for a political price. Liberal credit and deferred payments were provided to propagate the business and make us perennially incepted. What was the situation in India then? The industrial ambience had led to excellence in fabrication in limited areas. This means that after a design had been converted into fabrication drawings, our industry was in position to convert it into a finished product. For low and medium level technology, there were large industrial complexes where most of the facilities were established under licensed production. In defense production, the private sector played only a limited role. As far as the academic and R&D institutions were concerned, they were interested in working towards self reliance and to break away from the licensed production syndrome. The DRDO itself was preoccupied with a large number of single discipline projects concentrating on self
179 reliance through import substitution and/or indigenization. The end users often would like to see full systems. Subsystem development During the next ten years, that is, by 1995, certain industries graduated to design and development of subsystems. This was due to active partnership of the national science and technology agencies such as ISRO, DAE, DRDO and the industries. Many in the private sector who were hesitant to enter this field ten years earlier, started vying with defense Puss and other public sector companies to take up defense R&D tasks at the sub system level. For example, private sector industries were in a position to develop phase shifters, displays, tank age, communication systems, and certain types of electronic warfare systems, onboard computers, onboard transmitters, thermal batteries and even airframes. This marked a very important step for both the DRDO and Indian industry. Because of such interaction between R&D and industry, the enthusiasm and confidence of industrial establishments grew and enabled them to design subsystems and to absorb the specified stringent process of technology. Above all it enhanced their willingness to take risk and go through the rigorous quality assurance and certification process required for military systems. During the progress of large R&D projects, there were undoubtedly delays and cost overruns. There was some criticism in the press about this. But here it needs to be underline that these projects needed support through difficult phases of their development. In fact, R&D in India survived only because of the efforts of a few visionary scientists and leaders. But for them the nation would have been satisfied with making small items, surroundings to business interest that would use all means to convert India into a perpetual ‘buying nation’. Defense R&D is now taking the lead to reverse this trend through its selfreliance mission in defense systems. In DAE and ISRO too such an impulse for selfreliance is in the forefront. We forecast that by 2005, more industries will be in a position to take up stand alone mode systems engineering and systems integration to the specified requirement of R&D organizat ions. Subsystems like mult imode radar, ‘knavery’ class aircraft engines,
180 all composite carbon fiber composite wings, display systems, flybywire systems for Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) and for futuristic aircraft, mission computers and air frames will be developed, engineered, produced and delivered for integration and checkout. Of course, this is the Dodo’s vision. We believe that the Indian industry will respond given the national will on other fronts. We believe that when Indian industry becomes strong in systems engineering and systems integration as well as subsystem development and fabrication, the nation will have multiple options on choice of systems and industries to make them competitive and cost effective. In certain subsystems or technologies we can even compete globally. There would also be a number of civilian commercial spinoff products and services, which can be marketed domestically and in foreign markets. Growth of technology capability in DRDO The DRDO was established in the 1960s. Its major task was to build science based capability towards making improvements in the available imported systems and weaponry. In the ‘70s we production and in ‘80s a tremendous thrust was given to major system programmers in design and development which lead to product ionization of electronic warfare system, communication system, missile system, aircraft, main battle tanks and radars. These programmers gave a new impetus to multiple design and technology development centers resulting in the production of design capability for an integrated weapons systems in the nineties. Now the vision for the DRDO is to promote the corporate strength of the organization, and to make the nation independent of foreign techno logy in crit ical spheres. Techno logy inno vation is expected to lead the DRDO and its industrial partners to global competitiveness in system design and realization. Let us look at the technological growth of a completed missile project, Pith and an advanced development project, LCA, under progress. The following observations are drawn from some of my talks on these projects. Pith missile system In 1982, a detailed study was carried out for evolving advanced missile systems in order to counter the emerging threats to the security of India. Experts and members of the armed forces look part in this study and it resulted in the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programmed comprising five projects. In July 1983, the government
181 approved the programmed, whereby a unique management structure was to be established, integrating the development, production, and the user services, with government machinery for expeditious implementation. The Guided Missile Development Programmed The Guided Missile Development Programmed envisaged the design and development of our missile systems, Pith, Trisha, Abash and Nag, leading to their production. It also established the reentry techno logy capabilit y through Aging. The re entry technology demonstration was completed by 1992, through first tests of Aging. Pith was the first of the four of the operational missile systems to be inducted into the armed forces. The technological goal of the programmed is to ensure that the systems will be contemporary at the time of their induction into the armed forces. The systems have been designed to be multipurpose, multiuser and multirole in nature. The programmed has adopted the philosophy of concurrent development and production to reduce the time cycle from development to induction. Brief description of the Pith system Pith is an allweather, mobile and surfacetosurface guided missile, which can engage targets quickly and accurately over a range of 40250 km. the weapon system, is designed to engage targets beyond the range of field guns and unguided rockets. The system is highly mobile with a minimum reaction time and has a capability of being deployed at short notice at desired locations. Its mobility also provides fire and scoot capability. The Pit h missile is a single stage system and uses two liquid propulsio n engines o f threetone thrust capability each. The guidance system of Pith is based on a strap down inertial navigation system along with an onboard computer, which offer integrated solution to navigation, control and guidance requirements. Its flight control system allows the missile to follow the desired trajectory, by controlling the vehicle in three mutually perpendicular planes viz. pitch, yaw and control. The electrohydraulic actuation system is used to control the positioning error. The errors induced due to weather conditions such as wind, shear and gust can be corrected by the guidance and control system of the
182 missile. It is also possible to maneuver the missile in the final phase. The ground support system is equipped with special vehicles to carry out the mission, command and control, maintenance, logistic support and survey. The modular design and built in checkout and calibration facilities help in equipping the missile in the deployment area with the desired warhead and for carrying out a quick check of the missile’s operational readiness. The effectiveness of Pith A maneuverable trajectory, its high mobility, low reaction time, its self contained and selfsupporting features and low footprint area make the Pith missile system difficult to counter. Besides, the high accuracy of its system, its high warhead capabilities and absence of vulnerability to countermeasures. Including Electronic counter measures (ECM), make the Pith missile system potentially dangerous for the enemy. Possession and deployment of a large number of Pith missile can act as a deterrent and prevent a missile attack from our adversaries. In case of war, the powerful explosive and high accuracy of the Pith missile has enormous potential to bring life to a standstill in cities and urban areas, to affect the morale of the enemy. Also, a sizeable portion of the enemy air force would be engaged in neutralizing the mobile missile launchers (as borne Out by the experience of Allied air forces in the recent Gulf war against mobile scud sites). Pith is a costeffective weapon Usually, Vital Areas (Vass) and vital points (VPs), which are of high tactical and strategic importance, have a high level of air defense protection. Much of this air cover is multilayered, with some overlapping redundancy and is networked thought computer communication links for ensuring effective command and control. The deep penetration capability of the Pith missile, up to 250 km range, will enhance the firepower of the air force against heavily defended targets in adverse weather condit ions. In addit ion, the night attack capabilit y of this missile will be useful for attacking targets like factories; petroleum dumps marshalling yards and other static installat ions. The accuracy o f the system at 250 km will be further improved upon in phase II, when terminal homing guidance or antiradiation systems will be integrated into the Pith system. A scheme for retrofit is being contemplated and designed. This
183 capability will be an asset in attacking hard targets like armored concentrations in there parking sites. The development and production experience Of Pith India had certain strengths in design, materials and engineering when the project was initiated in 1983. However, the development of Pith required aerospace quality materials like magnesium alloys for wings and certain special aluminum alloys for airframe and tank ages, and navigat ional sensors of a certain accuracy, all of which were not available within the country. The Missile Technology Control Regime, though not formally declared, was in effect in some from or the other. All these drove us to deliberately adopt an indigenous route right from the beginning. Harnessing the available talents within the country and using innovative management methods developed a number of critical technologies, materials and processes. The development of the Pith Inertial Navigation system is an example of this. Though we were able to get only the coarse class of sensors for the inertial navigation, our scientists came up with innovations to enhance their accuracy using software. The use of simulation in the design phase, and the hardware in loop simulation to fly the missile on ground, as well as the association of users at every stage, greatly helped in improving the effectiveness of the missile and reduced the number of user trials. Throughout, the project was driven by goals o f excellence in performance and o f meeting schedules. Concurrency was built into every activity of the programmed to reduce the time from development to induction. Aside fro m strengthening the country to face the threats fro m across our borders. Pith has demonstrated that India can develop worldclass high technology systems and devices by using its own indigenous strength, and thereby defeating the control regimes. An important benefit of the Pith programmed is the new breed of technologists and leaders, who can make our country stronger and selfreliant. Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) One of the largest programmers of the DRDO is the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA). It has got all the potential elements of high technology; thirtythree R&D
184 establishments, sixty major industries and eleven academic institutions are integrated and working together on this project. There are two types of fighter aircraft, Light Combat Aircraft and the Medium Combat Aircraft. The Medium Combat Aircraft weighs about 15 tones at takeoff, whereas the Light Combat Aircraft has below 10 tones takeoff weight. This new generation aircraft has primary structures made of composite materials and advanced avionics. The LCA has technologies of based mission computer, low RCS, high weapon carrying capability, high maneuverability powered by a uniquely designed ‘knavery’ engine. The LCA design caters for topclass maneuverabilit y and high performance. In addition, its mission capability and survivability characteristics will be superior to those of the heavier aircraft that would come into the market within the next few years. The LCA will be the most costeffective aircraft in relation to performance considering the fact that our R&D cost is onethird of that of the developed countries for similar programmers. The LCA tops the lightweight fighters in its capabilities with the unique feature of fulluser commitment. The LCA can be marketed at much lower cost than the combat aircraft of similar class. DRDONavy participation Let us look at a few other cases of building up a strategic technological strength. During 1995, in the Bay Bengal, despite rough weather conditions, our defense scientists and engineers from Bart Electronics Limited (BEL) worked with a naval team on a ship to commission the modified electronic warfare system for user trials. In handiworkatsea, in stormy conditions, DRDO aeronautical and electronics engineers engaged in the final phase of user trials of Pilot less Target Aircraft (PTA) ‘Flashy’ for the three services. Also during 1995 we had a successful flight of the PTA whose jet engine was designed and developed within the country. The naval ships gave full support in this mission for deploying the simulated missile to encounter IR targets fitted with the PTA. An experimental laboratory on the sea, Sagardhwani, sailed from the west to the east coast with a mission of characterizing the ocean depth with particular reference to temperature gradient .
185 Another exciting achievement of the Navy is imminent. Work has been completed for the stateoftheart submarine sonar, Panchendriya, by the Naval Physical and Oceanography Laboratory (NPOL) situated on the western coast. The new ships being built will be armed with our Trishul missile system and the hullmounted sonar Hamsa. It will have its first Modulated Data Bus, which is mostly linked by fiber optics. The Government has also approved the Naval Integrated Electronic Warfare programmed (NIEWP). In four years, ships, submarines and naval aircraft would be provided with the latest electronic surveillance system coupled with electronic counter measures. Action plan for the Army Strategic technological action by the Army has been equally exemplary. Phased induction of various system and equipments needs to be linked and dovetailed with the defense selfreliance plan. This is a sure way for Indian industries to achieve the goals and the direction for preparing the business plan and for ensuring participation. Likewise, the dependence of our armed forces on imported systems needs to progressively decrease. Also, as is done elsewhere, India has to follow the induction of products in phases like Mark I, Mark II, etc. so that technology capability and production infrastructure are built in a phased way. This situation will cut down the delay of systems readiness. Technological uncertainty will be removed and willing investment by industries may be possible. The industries should be given a clear mandatewill they be developers? Will they be fabricators of an integrated system house and for what possible areas? Once this policy is enunciated industry can fully participate, as the financial aspects would be clear. Recently the DRDO opened seven of its laboratories for industries to pick up technologies already developed. These industries have to shape the technologies for commercial application. User trials of the systems developed are an important part of their induction by the armed forces. Normally, user trials pose a big challenge for the R&D and the industrial establishments. We are no exception. But the outcome of this exercise could help the country to become independent and selfreliant. If the Army has to gain in selfreliant. Rethinking is required in its plans of user trials and also of the mission requirements. In view of the onset of the performance evaluation through extensive combined
186 environmental simulation, would it be possible to plan for reduced scale user trial tests for high altitude, and desert conditions? This will result in industries moving over to series production within a short time followed by fullscale production for domestic and international markets. Of course, a series of technological and military considerations would be vital for taking such decisions. The future The above has given a glimpse of defense research and its interface with operational systems. Future defense operations are going to be based on mult iple networks of Army, Navy, Air Force and space systems. Information technology is going to be used in unprecedented ways, in the planning stages, in various simulation exercises, as well as during actual operations when the need arises. Continual surveillance is going to be another feature in the years to come. This is done through remote sensing, communications and several other means. Continual improvement of systems with higher precision, speed and maneuverability would also be a part of this complex picture. Advances in materials, electronics, advanced sensors; information processing, robotics, and artificial intelligence drive all the critical elements. Advanced sensors Advanced sensor technology has been identified the world over as one of the critical technologies for the future. Advanced sensors require ultrapure materials and ultraclean manufacturing conditions. Integrated electronic devices are using micro sensors on surface mounted devices. Advanced sensors will be used in every segment of human endeavor covering, agriculture, health services, advanced manufacturing systems, advanced avionics, optical communications, space satellites, super smart highways, biotechnology, genetic engineering, pollution control, diagnostics and so on. Molecular and supramolecular systems for sensing and actuation are creating new sensors capable of measuring physical, chemical and biological parameters. In view of the strategic importance of sensors for industrial, aerospace and health applications, it is necessary to have a national mission on advanced sensors. We will lose out in all areas including agriculture or trade if we do not have sufficient national capability in sensors, since quality improvement, productivity enhancement and enforcement of standards will
187 require use of advanced sensors. Environmental monitoring is another area based primarily on sensors continually looking at the quality of air, land and water. A detailed assessment of the state of the art of advanced sensors indicates that the following are major technological trends. · Development of intelligent or smart sensing devices · Emergence of integrated multifunctional sensors · Smart sensors systems capable of performing integration self compensation and self – correction · Sensors integrated with actuators, and · Development of artificial noses, which can create olfactory images, i.e. sensors, can smell and quantify the smell! It is estimated that the worldwide demand for sensors was of the order of $ 5 billion in 1994; USA has about 55 per cent share of the world market. And analysis of the world market for sensors indicate that industrial control, medical and scientific instruments account for 50 per cent of the global market of a sensors. Temperature sensors account for 36 per cent; Pressure sensors 34 per cent and flow sensors 28 per cent of the world demand. The world market for chemical and bio chemical sensors is rapidly growing and this is one of the emerging end use applications. The demand for sensors in India will be about Rest. 500 millio n in 2000 and the dominant use will be in industrial control and automation applications. In spite of the fact that it is strategically important for industrial and defense applicat ions, India has a negligible presence in t he advanced sensors market, even in the use of sensors, not to ment ion in their manufacture and development. Though there are a large number of institutions active in sensors development programmers in India, most of them have not as yet aimed their efforts at a specific product or service. There is no programmed which is oriented towards industry or the health sector. A number of organizations have strong capabilities in one or other element or sensors: for example, for material development or sensor element development or sensor device integration. Their needs to be a sharper focus for the sensors programmed besides closer networking and a joint development
188 programmed. Perhaps nat ional teams, as is being done for LCA, could be a model to follow. National programmed in advanced sensors India has to mount a sharply defined national programmed on advanced sensors. If India has to become a major player in advanced sensors there has to be comprehensive national mission implemented in the consortia mode. Several disciplines have to be integrated into developing focused product. Among the new capabilities required are microfabricat ion and manufacture. All applicat ion segments o f advanced sensors need special attention with specific focus on market development. The mission may be implemented through the existing inst itutions or through the new mechanism. However, the mission has to be very clearly defined and it has to be enduse oriented. It is preferable, if industries take a lead in this mission. Unless India has strong national capabilities in advanced sensors we may lose out in all areas to newly industrializing countries, since both industrial compet it iveness and trade competit iveness are going to depend upon the capabilities in advanced sensors. In future, the competitive edge in the manufacturing sector as well as in services is going to be great ly determined by the large scale use and innovative applications of sensors. Tables 9.2 and 9.3 provide a glimpse of some of strategically and industrially important sensors. It is crucial India develops major industries in these areas, with commercial level operations in the domestic and foreign markets. Let us now look at a few examples of space systems, which would from a core of strategic sector industries. Cryogenic engine for GSLV For the satellite launch vehicles, allsolid multistage rocket systems or solid plus liquid multistage rocket systems or all liquid multi stage rocket systems can be used. The cost per launch in is a way controlled by the takeoff weight of the launch vehicle system for a given payload and type of orbit enquired. The costeffectiveness in commercial
189 launch Vehicles, that is, the cost of injecting a satellite into a geo stationary orbit will decide the choice of the propellant system for individual TABLE 9.2 Strategically Important Sensors Area Sensor to be developed Trends Action needed Inertial sensors for Navigation and avionics a) Laser gyros Development of ultra noisefree and stable b) Fiber optic gyro lasers Development of Sensors for submarine c) Micro accelerator integrated optic detections SQUID based chips surface micro systems machining Strategically Sensors for detecting Combining nuclear SQUID sensors for important explosives such as RDX and magnetic resonance sensing ultra and sensors narcotics weak electro magnetic fields nuclear quadruple arising from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)/nuclear quadruple resonance (NQR) resonance principles Piezoresistive micro sensors Surface micro Development of machining of poly monolithic silicon silicon micro transducer including structures signal conditioning and calibration. TABLE 9.3 Sensors needed for Industrial Applications Area Sensor to be Trends Action needed developed Humidity sensors Polymer electrolytic, Humidity sensors heat treated polymer using changes in dielectric, inorganic permitivity and substance distributed resistance needed to polymer (change in be developed. This resistance due to will require first humidity absorption) development of sensors material and
190 related electronic circuitry Cellulose system Metal oxide silicon polymer (change in field effect permitivity) transistor (MOSFET) using Carbon particle humidity absorption distributed humidity polymer to be absorption resins (sharp developed changing resistance Industrial with absorption of process control humidity) and safety Area Sensor to be Trends Action needed developed MOSFET + humidity Surface acoustic absorption polymer wave sensors to be (change in characteristics developed of transistor) Quartz oscillator + polyamide (change in load of oscillator) Gas sensors for Organic semiconductor process control (Increase in conductivity due to adsorption of gas) Coloring matter membrane LB membrane (fluorescence quench) Quartz oscillator + organic thin film (change in load on vibrator) Gas transmission polymer membrane + electrode (selective permeation of gas, electrochemical reaction) Area Sensor to be Trends Action needed developed
191 Sensors for Inductive proximity Artificial noses Development of monitoring toxic sensors multicomponent gases Noncontact metal molecular Semiconductor detection sensors recognition systems Industrial process displacement laser with wide operating Development of control and safety sensors range and fast proximity sensors response and sensor Lightemitting alignment diodes or techniques semiconductor laser Light source and based sensors position sensitive detector development Stages. Normally, a liquid rocket system will be of a lower weight and with a cryogenic upper stage further weight reduction is achieved. For example, to place a 2.5ton payload in a geotransfer orbit, an allsolid multi stage launch vehicle will have a talkoff weight of 525 tons. This will reduce to 470 tons if the liquid stage replaces the solid upper stages. It will further reduce to 450 tons with allliquid stages and eventually to less than 300 tons when a cryogenic engine replaces the upper stage. The major differences in takeoff weight are evident. It is said in the space community that for every addition kilogram of payload, a few lakes of rupees when utilizing the cryogenic engine will reduce the cost. The propellant used in the cryogenic engine is a combination of liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen in specific ratios. The proposed cryogenic engine for India’s Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle, GSLV is of 12ton thrust class. The engine weighs only 250 kg and has a length of 3.1 meters. The engine has to be very compact with proper insulation, regenerative cooling and sealing for handling liquid oxygen and hydrogen. The engine has to be closely coupled to the tank ages and flow control devices to form the upper stage. The propellant loading, transfer, insulating and pressurizing systems are integration into one integral system for modular handling and operation. The technological challenges in realizing this stage are many. The materials selected have to work at minus 253º Celsius as well as at high temperatures of 1750º Celsius continuously. The nozzle and thrust chamber have to be regenerative cooled using the liquid hydrogen itself. For the liquid hydrogen turbo pump, speed has to be maintained
192 above 50000 revolutions per minute (rpm). Compare it with the revolutions of your motorcar engine, which is 5000 rpm, and of a commercial jet aircraft engine, which is almost 15000 rpm. Considering the fabrication, material technology, which is sealing, bearing, insulating technologies and the process of making the various cryogenic sub system, the country has yet to develop all these and our industries and R& D laboratories have to work together for this important task. A design and manufacturing database has to be established so that no country can come in the way of our space programmers. In this context, it is essential to note that cryogenic engines cannot be used for any missile application as their storage life is limited, the filling operations can be sensed in advance and no mobility is possible. The argument that cryogenic engines can be used for missiles, Quoting Missile Technology Control Regime, is nontechnical and commercially motivated. Where are we in aero propulsion? Where are we in aero engines and propulsion? India with its LCA programmed is now developing a uniquely configured GT engine as described earlier. Similarly, for GSLV, India has to develop within Schedule, a cryogenic engine and stand on its own it’s feet in the area of satellite launching. It can be seen that in both these areas we are lagging behind the developed countries because we did not feel their importance, given the leve l of aerospace technology mission taken up in the country in the past. Today, the priority given to commercial and military aircraft as well as GSLV, cryogenic engines and jet engines has become vital. Bridging the gap in technologies, to become a part of the leaders in the game is not an impossible, to task. The partnership between our institutions and industries can accelerate development and our technology acquisition. It will also help tailor the technology acquired to our infrastructure and needs. It can be seen that with the launch of po lar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), we are almost at par with the developed countries in the area of solid propellant power plants. The PSLV has also established the technologies of storable liquid propellants and related propulsion. Hyper planes of the future DRDO has entered into ram rocket systems where much higher energy levels (of above 500 sec wit h so lid propellants and unto 1000sec with liquid propellants) ill be realized.
193 The scramjet engine will give energy of 3000sec. Compare this with 50sec of cry engines! This is not only for military application. These supersonic combustion engines have application for cruise missiles, launch vehicles and hyper planes of the future. India’s proposed scramjet is designed for operating up to Mach 12. In the long term it could become part and parcel of our jet aircraft too. Currently, only a few countries are working in this area. Based on our experience with LCA and GSLV, India should at least take initiative in the elements of the hyper plane programmed so that India’s hyper plane and future Aerospace vehicles can be built around this power plant. The Hyper plane can deliver a payload of above 30 tons for a takeoff Weight of 250 tons, giving a quantum jump for the existing payload / take off ratios of max 3 per cent to 15 per cent through mass addition. A future hyper plane mission can have an integrated power plant complex working in three modes. Fan ramjet engine mode in low altitude, low speed flight regimes. Scramjet engine mode in March number range 3 to 12 along with airliquification and mass addition. Rocket engine mode till payload launching. In the critical technology areas of scramjet engine, our aerospace scientists start with the design, development and integration of fixed geometry air intakes for a wide mach number range supported extensively by analytical tools like Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and experimental set up like hypersonic wind tunnel. The combustor development including the material, fabrication technology and combustion kinetics has just begun. Test and evaluation facilities are to be planned for prototype and full scale engine testing. By 2010, commercial jet aircraft, military fighters reusable satellite launch vehicle and the reusable terrestrial payload delivery vehicle will have one common feature, that is, the usage of supersonic combustion engines for flying in hypersonic flight regimes. The real proliferates Recently I addressed diplomats in Delhi on the subject of nuclear proliferation. I offer an extract: ‘during my tenure in Delhi, I made a study of the proliferation doctrine initiated by the five nations. The USA for the last four decades, unto 1990,
194 accumulated about 10,000 nuclear warheads and almost an equal number was accumulated by the erstwhile Soviet Union. And this cruel fanaticism was just ified in the name of ideology of Capitalism versus communism! The seeds of nuclear proliferation were thus sown. These two nations used nuclear weapons as a tool to subordinate or influence many national politics by giving socalled nuclear technology for peaceful application or nuclear power stations. For china, nuclear weapon technology was given by the Soviet Union and we have witnessed recently that the same developed countries have ensured that Pakistan will have a certain number of nuclear weapons. A former prime minister of Pakistan has reported this. The five weapon countries proclaimed that they were the nations solely approved to possess nuclear weapons. They evolved certain international policies. The total number of warheads they possessed was so many that they created Safety and security problems of tremendous magnitude for the world. These two nations driven by the people negotiated START ÍÍ (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty). They signed a treaty for reducing the warheads, including the delivery carriers to 3000.when I asked Dr William Perry, US secretary for defense, during his visit to India, why 3000 and not zero as Pundit Jawaharlal Nehru had put forth the concept of complete nuclear weapons is a dream. He meant that the nuclear weapons should always be with the club of five and be a dream for Others. We can assume that at no time will the nations come to zero level of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are a strong component of the global strategy they visualize. For them they are weapons of political strength and by propagating a non proliferat ion doctrine they claim to generate peace. It was a delightful privilege for DAE and DRDO teams. Backed up by the political leadership, to break this dangerous and self centered monopoly of nuclear weapon states. Similarly, in the area of chemical or biological weapons or missile systems, the origin of their proliferation is the same. If one opens the Pandora’s box of proliferation, one would see USA and the former Soviet Union, with the recent addition of China. If there could be an impartial world body, not driven by the superpowers, the developing countries affected by this dangerous proliferation can seek justice and compensation, Can we dream for such a new and just world?
195 Strategic industriesthe future of India We are able to provide only a glimpse of a few important elements of strategic industries to be developed in India. The once described are well within our reachtechnologically, investment wise and schedule wise. If industries and institutions, work together with clear vision and goals in mind and with assiduous buildup of markets right from the word go, Indian industries can reap rich commercial benefits. Also let us not forget the fact that a strategic technology or industry today, will have daytoday applications in many walks of life two decades hence. Therefore, it is our duty to build the necessary technologies today so that the future generation of Indians will have new worlds to conquer and not have to struggle with the problems of ‘bridging the past gaps’ as we are doing today! We owe it to the future generations that we hand them over by 2020 only the excitement and challengers of the future and nit the weight of problems of the past or the crises of the present. Only then will India have truly arrived as a developed country populated with proud people confident of their future.
196 Chapter 10 Health Care for all Don’t give a place to disease. Auvaiyyar, Tamil saintpoetess Former Prime Minister I.K. Goral, in his address to the 1998Science Congress at Hydria, made a revealing remark on the state of our basic amenit ies. ‘I see before me the bottled water; water kept for the dignitaries on the dais. It reminds me of three classes of Indians: one who can afford bottled water; others who manage to get some water in their taps or in a near by tap or a pump irrespect ive of its qualit y or regularit y o f supply; the third set of Indians are those for whom drinking water is a daily problem and who will be ready to drink any polluted water’. For such a situation to persist after fifty years of independence was a national shame, he added. Unfortunately, if we do not do enough on this front, and the Related one of health care, ten years down the road we might still be saying the same thing. In the ultimate analysis, any society will be judged by its ability to provide universal health care for its people. This does not merely entail the ability to treat diseases and aliments but also to prevent their onset by means of suitable systems and measures. We are aware that not all diseases are entirely, or diabetes. We do not have cures for many genetic disorders. Permanent cures may not be possible even fir many allergies and respiratory problems such as asthma. However, through regular medicat io n and precautionary measures, most patients can lead normal lives. Disease prevention Most communicable diseases, however, can be prevented by Suitable sanitation systems, control of diseasespreading materials (such as foul water) or vectors (like mosquitoes), and by immunization programmers carried out on a large scale. Paying adequate attention to nutrition and dietary supplements can control a number of diseases. For example, the use of iodized salt can prevent goiter, which is rampant in many parts of the country. The intake of vitamin A can prevent blindness. Globally, 25 percent of blind and visually handicapped persons are in India! And, of course, among people who can
197 afford it, a balanced food intake and physical exercise can help prevent several forms o f heart disease. The rich at least have access to information about healthrelated issues in many ways: through journals and magazines, discussions with others and visits to doctors and medical specialists. That is not the case with many lowerincome groups and poorer people. There is a total absence of health education among these sections. And even if they want to, many of them cannot afford a visit to a doctor, or afford regular medicat ion when it is urgently required. More often than not, they end up relying on quacks. Barring a small percentage, most primary health care (PHC) centers do not provide any tangible healt h care to people. There are many reasons for this: irregular and limited supply of medicines, not enough doctors or paramedical staff, callous and apathetic medical staff, the leverage of influential local individuals, the excessively bureaucratic operation of the system. Despite all this it is creditable that the death rate in India has come down to 9 (per thousand) in 1995 as compared to 14.9 in 1971. Sanitation Proper drainage of dirty water, disposal of garbage, sewage and human and industrial wastes are crucial for a clean microenvironment, which is a prerequisite for preventive health care. We have simply to visit the slums of Mumbai or Delhi to witness the urgency of such measures. Even in rural India, most women have to wait until it is dark they can relieve themselves in the open. The filth in these places renders them rife with diseases. My coauthor Y.S. Raja narrates his experience with a Department of Science and Technology project at Mumbai for setting up a big plant for garbage processing and installation of simple latrines in slums. The latrines had about ten modules built around a central pillar. To decide on their location, Raja visited many slums in Mumbai. An incredible amount of putrid water collected and stood for days around the huts even when it was not raining. Added to this dirty water and excreta were various other forms of garbage thrown out by the slum dwellers. How could they and their children be healthy and free from diseases? Above all, what could be expected of their attitude towards keeping general public conveniences like latrines clean? Many poverty removal schemes are not applicable to the Mumbai slums because the earnings of the people who live there are above the poverty line! They may earn more than they would back in the village.
198 They have better clothes and more food. But the appalling sanitary conditions negate all other aspects of progress. A similar situation exists in most big cities. The response of elite Indians is to remove the slums from view and send the occupants many kilometers away. Or simply to ignore them by building high walls to block these dirty areas from sight! Drinking water A recent event demonstrated how technology could assist in meeting drinking water needs. One of the DRDO laboratories at Jodhpur has developed an electro hydrolysis or desalination process that is used to convert salty brackish water. A similar situation prevails in several districts of Tamil Nadir and Gujarat. The Department of rural Development (DRD) and the government of rajas than promoted the technology development by DRDO labs. Two desalination plants of 20000 and 40000 liters respectively have been installed and production has co mmenced. More than 100 villages now have potable water. I found the desalination plants. This example is replicable in many parts of the country. Health for all Better sanitary conditions and an improved microenvironment in the habitat or workplace are the most important requirements for healt h. In the co ming years we also need to pay attention to the working conditions within factories as well as open workplaces, be they coalmines, quarries or roads. Removing health hazards to which our people are exposed is a crucial nat ional missio n. It is not enough to consider ‘glo bal qualit y levels’ of living or working places only for the well todo. Ordinary Indians too deserve and have a right to live and to work in a good environment. After a good and clean environment comes the need for better nutrition, with necessary food supplements. Preventive healthcare systemsinoculation, vaccination, immunization, periodic health checks and medical treatment are the next steps. These should be made available and affordable to all Indians. Employers, central, state and local governments should bear the responsibilit y to assure people of this healt h securit y cover. But how is this to be implemented? It is true that public health services are under severe strain. There is also a tendency towards the commercialization of medical services, which by itself is not bad if there are countervailing insurance or social security covers
199 that make them affordable for most. Nevertheless, there are also a number of bright spots. Many medical professionals, who run expensive medical care systems to cater to the needs and fancies of the Affluent, also subsidize the weaker sections by providing them with good services. The authors have seen such philanthropy being practiced at the L.V. Parsed Eye institute while those who register themselves under the category ‘not affordable’ receive free treatment. Some of these private initiatives are very efficient and humane. There are also many NGOs and a number of local initiatives that work well. Even the doctors and the staff in many governmentrun medical centers have a number of good ideas to make the existing systems functional and service oriented. There are also a number o f systems using alternative and ho list ic medicine, which are pro moted by well trained specialists; some of these can bring down the costs of running the general health care system. Given all this, we do not believe that India cannot take up the challenge of ‘health for all’. We can make the systems work; we can change them to help people, despite the growth of the population and multiple challenges in the task of removing poverty and accelerating economic growth. It is with firm and considered belief that we describe some facts about the projected scenario of diseases and disabilities and describes how to combat the problems. Towards the vision: the two Indies Soon we will have one billion Indians. A few tens of millions of them have lifestyles equivalent to or even more luxurious than the upper strata of the developed world. They enjoy the facilities offered by modern technologies, and simultaneously enjoy the benefits of cheap labor. Another 200 to 300 million Indians, the socalled middle class, have a varied lifestyle, often aspiring to copy the developed world but having only limited resources. They face the stress of modern life but often do not have the facilities for good living. The rest of the population is engaged in jobs, which leave it confronted with constant insecurity about making ends meet. This majority does not have economic surplus and has just enough for covering its bare necessit ies. Invest ment in health care is an impossible luxury. A TIFAC survey of the future scenario of Indian epidemiology as perceived by medical practitioners reflects this reality. India world have the diseases of the developing
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