Football Betting Magazine (Issue 29)

oddscompiler 29th - 30th August 2015 +10.50 pts Season 2014/15 Running Profit/Loss 29

A Football Betting Magazinewith a betting analysis of EnglishPremier League gamesEach English Premier League game Contents that has been chosen for analysis has two pages including: likely starting 3 First Goalscorer: Jeremain Lensline-ups and formation, Betting Forecast 4 First Goalscorer: Salomon Rondon(compiled odds and true chance for 1X2,Double Chance and Draw No Bet markets) 5 Newcastle United v Arsenaland Goals Analysis. The true odds allows 7 Aston Villa v Sunderlandthe bettor to determine if a certain 9 Chelsea v Crystal Palacebookmaker is giving value or not and these 11 Liverpool v West Ham Unitedodds (or greater) should be taken, with 13 Stoke City v West Bromwichlesser odds being left. 15 Tottenham Hotspur v Everton 17 Swansea City v Manchester UnitedThe Goals Analysis gives the expected goalsfor each team which are used to create the 19 Odds Ready Reckonermatch odds. 20 GlossaryOdds are given as decimal odds (EuropeanOdds format). These odds are easier for thebettor to understand than fractional odds(UK Odds format), although there is anOdds Ready Reckoner in the back of thispublication.

JEREMAIN LENS Goalscorer Odds 0.24Goals per 90+ mins (exc. Penalties) 20% 13 . 0 0Chance of Scoring Best Odds 0.2% First Goalscorer Hat-trick Chance 6 . 10 Best Odds Anytime Goalscorer *Odds correct at time of publishing 9.7% 4.93 10.35 609.4Chance of scoring the True/Value Odds of True/Value Odds of True/Value Odds offirst goal in upcoming scoring at anytime in scoring first in upcoming scoring a hat-trick in match upcoming match match upcoming match

SALOMON RONDON Goalscorer Odds 0.50Goals per 90+ mins (exc. Penalties) 36% 10 . 0 0Chance of Scoring Best Odds 1.1% First Goalscorer Hat-trick Chance 4.20 Best Odds Anytime Goalscorer *Odds correct at time of publishing 16.5% 2.76 6.07 91.9Chance of scoring the True/Value Odds of True/Value Odds of True/Value Odds offirst goal in upcoming scoring at anytime in scoring first in upcoming scoring a hat-trick in match upcoming match match upcoming match

Newcastle Utd v Arsenal Betting ForecastSaturday 29th August, 12:45pm Expected Goals Goal Supremacy The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will 0.82 score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and Home 1.60 -0.78 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Away 2.42 Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected. These expected goals are what Total make up the true odds of a football game (all markets), before the bookmakers include Home Draw Away Margin their margin. 1X2 5.83 4.05 1.72 0.0%Compiled Odds 17.2% 24.7% 58.1% 0.0% All form (weighted by opposition strength and how recent each game was) is includedTrue Chance into the calculations for the expected goals. Team news and predicted line-ups also H/D H/A D/A Margin affect these figures. Double Chance 2.39 1.33 1.21 0.0%Compiled Odds 41.9% 75.3% 82.8% 0.0% My Compiled Odds are the ‘true odds’ of a football match. The true chance is simplyTrue Chance the true chance of each result happening on average. The compiled odds will have no Home Away added margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above these Draw No Bet 4.39 1.30 odds are value (the margin moves in your favour) and should be backed.Compiled Odds 22.8% 77.2%True Chance Margin 0.0% 0.0%Advised Bet(s)The bookies predict Arsenal to score a high amount of goals away to Newcastle but my expected goals when looking at shots and goals data says otherwise.My expected goals for Arsenal is still a fairly high 1.60 for an away side (the bookies are around 1.80). This means my supremacy (0.78) for Arsenal is lowerand therefor I would avoid backing the odds on favourite and instead back the draw.Back the draw at odds of 4.20 (Bet365/BetFred) Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Krul CechJanmaat Mbemba Coloccini Haidara Bellerin Koscielny Gabriel Monreal Colback Anita Coquelin Cazorla Sissoko Wijnaldum Thauvin Ramsey Ozil Sanchez Mitrovic Giroud

Analysis Home Away Draw 17.2% H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the 22.8% 77.2% chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio HvA between home and away - a better way to see and compare team strength.24.7% 58.1%33.88% Goals Share is the share of the total expected goals in the match. The actual Goals expected goals (as an average) are given Share below the doughnut chart. This is also a good was to see and compare team 66.12% strength.0.82 1.60

Aston Villa v Sunderland Betting Forecast Saturday 29th August, 3pm Expected Goals Goal Supremacy The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will 1.17 score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and Home 0.89 0.28 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Away 2.06 Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected. These expected goals are what Total make up the true odds of a football game (all markets), before the bookmakers include Home Draw Away Margin their margin. 1X2 2.36 3.27 3.70 0.0%Compiled Odds 42.4% 30.6% 27.0% 0.0% All form (weighted by opposition strength and how recent each game was) is includedTrue Chance into the calculations for the expected goals. Team news and predicted line-ups also H/D H/A D/A Margin affect these figures. Double Chance 1.37 1.44 1.74 0.0%Compiled Odds 73.0% 69.4% 57.6% 0.0% My Compiled Odds are the ‘true odds’ of a football match. The true chance is simplyTrue Chance the true chance of each result happening on average. The compiled odds will have no Home Away added margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above these Draw No Bet 1.64 2.57 odds are value (the margin moves in your favour) and should be backed.Compiled Odds 61.1% 38.9%True Chance Margin 0.0% 0.0%Advised Bet(s)Both myself and the bookies have this game as a low goal scoring affair, although I think Villa will struggle to score and this makes the draw a good bet.Sunderland are also available at 4.60 with BetVictor and Bet365. Aston Villa’s new signing, Adama Traore is doubtful to start. There is also a sickness buggoing around the Villa training ground and apparently two player’s have come down with the bug - Sherwood has not revealed the name’s of these twoplayers.Back the draw at 3.60 with BetFred. Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Guzan PantilimonBacuna Richards Clark Amavi Jones O’Shea Coates Van Aanholt Sanchez Westwood Gueye Rodwell M’Villa Cattermole Sinclair Gestede Grealish Lens Graham Defoe

Analysis Home Away Draw 27.0% 61.1% 38.9% H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the42.4% chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio HvA between home and away - a better way to see and compare team strength. 30.6% Goals Share is the share of the total Goals 43.20% expected goals in the match. The actual Share expected goals (as an average) are given56.80% below the doughnut chart. This is also a good was to see and compare team strength.1.17 0.89

Chelsea v Crystal Palace Betting ForecastSaturday 29th August, 3pm Expected Goals Goal Supremacy The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will 2.08 score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and Home 0.68 1.40 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Away 2.76 Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected. These expected goals are what Total make up the true odds of a football game (all markets), before the bookmakers include Home Draw Away Margin their margin. 1X2 1.37 5.50 11.30 0.0%Compiled Odds 73.0% 18.2% 8.8% 0.0% All form (weighted by opposition strength and how recent each game was) is includedTrue Chance into the calculations for the expected goals. Team news and predicted line-ups also H/D H/A D/A Margin affect these figures. Double Chance 1.10 1.22 3.70 0.0%Compiled Odds 91.2% 81.8% 27.0% 0.0% My Compiled Odds are the ‘true odds’ of a football match. The true chance is simplyTrue Chance the true chance of each result happening on average. The compiled odds will have no Home Away added margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above these Draw No Bet 1.12 9.25 odds are value (the margin moves in your favour) and should be backed.Compiled Odds 89.2% 10.8%True Chance Margin 0.0% 0.0%Advised Bet(s)My expected goals mirror the bookie’s and therefor there is no value in the odds for this game. Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Courtois McCarthyIvanovic Cahill Zouma Azpilicueta Ward Dann Delaney Souare Matic Fabregas Cabaye McArthur Pedro Willian Hazard Zaha Puncheon Sako Murray Costa

Analysis Home Away Draw 8.8% 18.2% H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the 89.2% 10.8% chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio HvA between home and away - a better way to see and compare team strength.73.0% Goals Share is the share of the total 24.64% expected goals in the match. The actual expected goals (as an average) are given Goals below the doughnut chart. This is also a Share good was to see and compare team strength. 75.36% 0.682.08

Liverpool v West Ham Utd Betting ForecastSaturday 29th August, 3pm Expected Goals Goal Supremacy The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will 1.75 score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and Home 0.69 1.06 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Away 2.44 Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected. These expected goals are what Total make up the true odds of a football game (all markets), before the bookmakers include Home Draw Away Margin their margin. 1X2 1.54 4.60 7.50 0.0%Compiled Odds 64.9% 21.7% 13.3% 0.0% All form (weighted by opposition strength and how recent each game was) is includedTrue Chance into the calculations for the expected goals. Team news and predicted line-ups also H/D H/A D/A Margin affect these figures. Double Chance 1.15 1.28 2.85 0.0%Compiled Odds 86.7% 78.3% 35.1% 0.0% My Compiled Odds are the ‘true odds’ of a football match. The true chance is simplyTrue Chance the true chance of each result happening on average. The compiled odds will have no Home Away added margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above these Draw No Bet 1.21 5.87 odds are value (the margin moves in your favour) and should be backed.Compiled Odds 83.0% 17.0%True Chance Margin 0.0% 0.0%Advised Bet(s)This is another favourite who I feel the bookies are overrating. I give them a decent 1.75 expected goals for this game which is less than the bookies. WestHam are a tempting 9.75 with Unibet and the draw is currently 5.50 with three bookmakers (Coral, BetFred and B365).I feel the best bet is to back West Ham in the Draw No Bet market at odds of 7/1 (8.00) with Unibet/BetVictor. A draw will give you your money back. Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Randolph MignoletClyne Skrtel Lovren Gomez Tomkins Ogbonna Reid Cresswell Obiang Oxford Noble Lucas Milner Can Kouyate Payet Coutinho Benteke Firmino Sakho

Analysis Home Away Draw 13.3% H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the 83.0% 17.0% chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio HvA 21.7% between home and away - a better way to see and compare team strength.64.9% 28.28% Goals Share is the share of the total expected goals in the match. The actual Goals expected goals (as an average) are given Share below the doughnut chart. This is also a good was to see and compare team71.72% strength.1.75 0.69

Stoke City v West Bromwich Betting ForecastSaturday 29th August, 3pm Expected Goals Goal Supremacy The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will 1.26 score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and Home 0.89 0.37 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Away 2.15 Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected. These expected goals are what Total make up the true odds of a football game (all markets), before the bookmakers include Home Draw Away Margin their margin. 1X2 2.17 3.45 4.01 0.0%Compiled Odds 46.1% 29.0% 24.9% 0.0% All form (weighted by opposition strength and how recent each game was) is includedTrue Chance into the calculations for the expected goals. Team news and predicted line-ups also H/D H/A D/A Margin affect these figures. Double Chance 1.33 1.41 1.85 0.0%Compiled Odds 75.1% 71.0% 53.9% 0.0% My Compiled Odds are the ‘true odds’ of a football match. The true chance is simplyTrue Chance the true chance of each result happening on average. The compiled odds will have no Home Away added margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above these Draw No Bet 1.54 2.85 odds are value (the margin moves in your favour) and should be backed.Compiled Odds 64.9% 35.1%True Chance Margin 0.0% 0.0%Advised Bet(s)There is a reasonable amount of value with outsiders West Brom to win this game and BetVictor are currently 4.60 for them to win.Back WBA at 4.60 (BetVictor) Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Butland MyhillJohnson Cameron Muniesa Pieters Dawson McAuley Olsson McClean Van Ginkel Whelan Yacob Fletcher Morrison McMananman Rondon Shaqiri Afellay Arnautovic Gnabry Diouf

Analysis Home Away Draw 24.9% 64.9% 35.1% H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the46.1% HvA chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio 29.0% between home and away - a better way to see and compare team strength. 41.40% Goals Share is the share of the total58.60% Goals expected goals in the match. The actual Share expected goals (as an average) are given below the doughnut chart. This is also a good was to see and compare team strength.1.26 0.89

Tottenham Hotspur v Everton Betting ForecastSaturday 29th August, 5:30pm Expected Goals Goal Supremacy The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will 1.49 score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and Home 1.10 0.39 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Away 2.59 Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected. These expected goals are what Total make up the true odds of a football game (all markets), before the bookmakers include Home Draw Away Margin their margin. 1X2 2.05 3.75 4.08 0.0%Compiled Odds 48.8% 26.7% 24.5% 0.0% All form (weighted by opposition strength and how recent each game was) is includedTrue Chance into the calculations for the expected goals. Team news and predicted line-ups also H/D H/A D/A Margin affect these figures. Double Chance 1.32 1.36 1.95 0.0%Compiled Odds 75.5% 73.3% 51.2% 0.0% My Compiled Odds are the ‘true odds’ of a football match. The true chance is simplyTrue Chance the true chance of each result happening on average. The compiled odds will have no Home Away added margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above these Draw No Bet 1.50 2.99 odds are value (the margin moves in your favour) and should be backed.Compiled Odds 66.6% 33.4%True Chance Margin 0.0% 0.0%Advised Bet(s)I make the odds about the same as the bookies and so there is no value in this match. Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Lloris HowardWalker Alderweireld Vertonghen Rose Coleman Stones Jagielka Oviedo Dier Mason Barry McCarthy Dembele Lamela Chadli Mirallas Barkley Cleverley Kane Lukaku

Analysis Home Away Draw 24.5% 66.6% 33.4% H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the48.8% HvA chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio 26.7% between home and away - a better way to see and compare team strength. Goals 42.47% Share Goals Share is the share of the total57.53% expected goals in the match. The actual expected goals (as an average) are given below the doughnut chart. This is also a good was to see and compare team strength.1.49 1.10

Swansea City v Manchester Utd Betting ForecastSunday 30h August, 4pm Expected Goals Goal Supremacy The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will 0.94 score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attack and Home 1.26 -0.32 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. Goal Away 2.20 Supremacy is the average margin of victory expected. These expected goals are what Total make up the true odds of a football game (all markets), before the bookmakers include Home Draw Away Margin their margin. 1X2 3.83 3.40 2.25 0.0%Compiled Odds 26.1% 29.4% 44.5% 0.0% All form (weighted by opposition strength and how recent each game was) is includedTrue Chance into the calculations for the expected goals. Team news and predicted line-ups also H/D H/A D/A Margin affect these figures. Double Chance 1.80 1.42 1.35 0.0%Compiled Odds 55.5% 70.6% 73.9% 0.0% My Compiled Odds are the ‘true odds’ of a football match. The true chance is simplyTrue Chance the true chance of each result happening on average. The compiled odds will have no Home Away added margin which means that any odds that a bookmaker is giving above these Draw No Bet 2.70 1.59 odds are value (the margin moves in your favour) and should be backed.Compiled Odds 37.0% 63.0%True Chance Margin 0.0% 0.0%Advised Bet(s)Again, I have priced this game up pretty close to the bookies so there is not a lot of value here. Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Fabianski RomeroNaughton Fernandez Williams Taylor Darmian Smallling Blind Shaw Shelvey Ki Schweinsteiger SchneiderlinAndre Ayew Sigurdsson Montero Mata Herrera Depay Gomis Rooney

Analysis Home Away Draw26.1% 37.0% 63.0% H v A gives the chance of the home team winning, the away team winning and the 44.5% chance of a draw, all located in the outer ring. The inner ring shows the ratio HvA between home and away - a better way to see and compare team strength.29.4% Goals Share is the share of the total42.73% Goals expected goals in the match. The actual Share expected goals (as an average) are given 57.27% below the doughnut chart. This is also a good was to see and compare team strength.0.94 1.26

Odds Ready ReckonerDecimal Fraction Implied Decimal Fraction Implied Example: Decimal odds of 3.10 are equivalent to 2.1/1 Probability Probability (written as 21/10 in fractional odds).1.2 1/5 83.3% 2.63 13/8 38.0%1.22 2.9 82.0% 2.7 17/10 37.0% decimal odds (3.10) - 1 = fractional odds (2.1/1 or 21/10)1.25 1/4 80.0% 2.75 7/4 36.4%1.28 2/7 78.1% 2.8 9/5 35.7% Fractional odds to decimal odds:1.3 3/10 76.9% 2.88 15/8 34.7%1.33 1/3 75.2% 2.9 19/10 34.5% (21 ÷ 10) + 1 = 3.11.35 7/20 74.1% 3 2/1 33.3%1.36 4/11 73.5% 3.1 21/10 32.3% Now you can convert this to the implied probability:1.4 2/5 71.4% 3.13 85/40 31.9%1.44 4/9 69.4% 3.2 11/5 31.3% 1 (100%) ÷ 3.1 = 0.3226 (32.26%)1.45 9/20 69.0% 3.25 9/4 30.8%1.47 40/85 68.0% 3.3 23/10 30.3% How much will I win?1.5 1/2 66.7% 3.33 100/30 30.0%1.53 8/15 65.4% 3.38 95/40 29.6% If you put £10.00 on odds of 8/13 (1.62), you would get1.57 4/7 63.7% 3.4 12/5 29.4% £16.20 back including your stake, so a £6.20 profit.1.6 3/5 62.5% 3.5 5/2 28.6%1.62 8/13 61.7% 3.6 13/5 27.8% If you put £1.00 on odds of 15/2 (8.5), you would get1.63 5/8 61.3% 3.75 11/4 26.7% £8.50 back, so a £7.50 profit.1.66 4/6 60.2% 3.8 14/5 26.3%1.7 7/10 58.8% 4 3/1 25.0% Staking Strategy1.72 8/11 58.1% 4.2 16/5 23.8%1.8 4/5 55.6% 4.33 10/3 23.1% The Odds Ready Reckoner is ideal as a simple but1.83 5/6 54.6% 4.5 7/2 22.2% useful staking tool. If you want to win £100.00 from1.9 9/10 52.6% 4.6 18/5 21.7% each bet you place, then all you need to do is place the1.91 10/11 52.4% 5 4/1 20.0% percentage equivalent. E.G. If a team is 3/1 to win, you1.95 20/21 51.3% 5.5 9/2 18.2% place £25.00 (as the odds represent 25%) and you will2 1/1 50.0% 6 5/1 16.7% get £100.00 back. This is a better way to use your2.05 21/20 48.8% 6.5 11/2 15.4% betting money as the amount you are risking is2.1 11/10 47.6% 7 6/1 14.3% proportional to the chance of winning.2.2 6/5 45.5% 7.5 13/2 13.3%2.25 5/4 44.4% 8 7/1 12.5%2.3 13/10 43.5% 8.5 15/2 11.8%2.38 11/8 42.0% 9 8/1 11.1%2.4 7/5 41.7% 9.5 17/2 10.5%2.5 6/4 40.0% 10 9/1 10.0%2.6 8/5 38.5% 11 10/1 9.1%

Average Odds GlossaryThe average odds from various bookmakersWorldwide.Expected/Predicted GoalsA team’s estimated goals that it should score in thegiven game on average.Implied OddsAn assumed chance, written as odds, that an event hasof happening.Mean AverageThe mean average is the average which we use in basicmaths. It is calculated by dividing the total number ofsomething by how many events. For example, ifChelsea had conceded 1, 0, 0, 1, 1 and 2 goals in theirlast six games, the average goals they have concededis 0.83.5 (the total goals) divided by 6 (the number ofmatches).Poisson DistributionA statistical model that uses the mean to calculate thechance of absolute numbers. For example, ifManchester United’s average goals per game is 2.08(their mean average), then the Poisson formula willcalculate the chance of them scoring 0, 1, 2 and so on.True Odds/ChanceThese are the odds that do not have a bookmaker’smargin applied. After the bookmakers haveincorporated their profit margin into the odds, theyare lower than what the true chance reflects.