UK Football/Soccer Betting Magazine (Issue VI): 'Odds Compiler'

Arsenal v Newcastle Man Utd v Liverpool Odds CompilerBetting analysis and preview of the Betting analysis and preview of the Everton v QPR game at the Emirates game at Old Trafford Betting analysis and preview of Monday’s gameodds compilerfootball betting magazine 13th December - 15th December 2014 ISSUE VII

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Odds CompilerA Football Betting Magazinewith a betting preview of eachEnglish Premier League game.Each English Premier League game has Contents a two page spread with likely starting line-ups and formation, average odds IV Burnley v Southamptonfrom the bookmakers and true odds (by VI Sunderland v West Ham Unitedremoving the bookmakers profit margin). VIII Crystal Palace v Stoke CityThe true odds allows the bettor to determine X West bromwich Albion v Aston Villaif a certain bookmaker is giving value odds XII Leicester City v Manchester Cityor not. XIV Chelsea v Hull City XVI Arsenal v Newcastle UnitedTo further increase the bettor’s chance of XVIII Manchester United v Liverpoolmaking a profit, expected goals are given XX Swansea City v Tottenham Hotspurand these are used with the Poisson Formula XXII Everton v Queens Park Rangersto give a chance for each likely correct score.See the Glossary at the back for a XXIV Odds Ready Reckonerdescription of the Poisson Formula. XXV GlossaryAn advised bet is given for each PremierLeague game (if there is sufficient value)with the best odds at time of writing. Theseodds (or greater) should be taken andsmaller odds left.Odds are given as decimal odds (EuropeanOdds format). These odds are easier for thebettor to understand than fractional odds(UK Odds format), although there is anOdds Ready Reckoner in the back of thispublication.III

XISTARTINGHeaton Forster Burnley versus SouthamptonTrippier Clyne Keane Fonte Saturday 3pmShackell Alderweireld Bertrand Duff is still injured which means we will see Keane Mee Davis and Shackell make up the centre of defence once Arfield Wanyama again for Burnley. Ross Wallace and Lukas Jones Long Jutkiewicz should make the bench although theyMarney Mane will be hoping to start. Boyd Tadic Barnes Pelle Good news for Saints is that Toby Alderweireld should come back into the side but Schneiderlin and Ings Cork are both still likely to be out. This should see Steven Davis moved into a central role with Shane Long playing out wide. James Ward-Prowse could be back in the squad after a lengthy injury and may make the bench. Most Likely… First Goalscorer: Pelle £5.00 Best Odds: 5.5 Coral £27.50 Correct Score: 0-1 £5.00 Best Odds: 6.75 Unibet, BWin £33.75 IV

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 0.82 1.52 -0.70 2.34 0.90 1.60 -0.70 2.50 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 5.02 3.62 1.73 -5.3%True Odds 5.51 3.87 1.79 0.0%Chance 18.1% 25.8% 56.0% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 0-1 13.9% 7.21 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 1-1 11.9% 8.38 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 0-2 10.8% 9.24 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 1-2 9.3% 10.75 margin of victory. 0-0 8.9% 11.25 1-0 7.6% 13.08 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Burnley Southampton Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Heaton ForsterTrippier Keane Shackell Mee Clyne Fonte Alderweireld BertrandArfield Boyd Long Jones Marney Wanyama Davis Mane Barnes Tadic Ings Pelle V

XISTARTINGPantilimon Adrian Black Cats Jenkinson versus West Ham United Vergini Tomkins Brown Reid Saturday 3pm O’Shea Cresswell Reveillere Song Steven Flethcher will be Sunderland’s lone strikerCattermole Kouyate after recovering from an injury; Jozy Altidore will Larsson Nolan make way. Poyet’s centre-back partnership will be Gomez Downing two from O’Shea, Brown and Coates. Bridcutt and Johnson Sakho Cattermole will be fighting it out for the defensive Wickham Carroll midfield role. Fletcher Enner Valencia will likley be dropped to the bench at the expense of Diafra Sakho who will partner Andy Carroll up front. Mark Noble remains sidelined for Sunderland. Most Likely… First Goalscorer: Diafra Sakho £5.00 Best Odds: 7 William Hill £35.00 Correct Score: 1-1 £5.00 Best Odds: 7 Bet Victor, W.Hill £35.00 VI

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 1.20 1.23 -0.03 2.43 1.25 1.30 -0.05 2.55 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 2.83 3.29 2.53 -5.3%True Odds 2.98 3.49 2.65 0.0%Chance 33.6% 28.6% 37.8% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1-1 12.9% 7.77 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 0-1 10.5% 9.48 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 1-0 10.2% 9.79 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 0-0 8.4% 11.94 margin of victory. 1-2 8.1% 12.33 2-1 7.9% 12.73 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Sunderland West Ham United Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Pantilimon AdrianVergini O’Shea Brown Reveillere Jenkinson Tomkins Reid Cresswell Cattermole Song DowningJohnson Gomez Larsson Wickham Kouyate Nolan Fletcher Sakho Carroll VII

XISTARTINGSperoni Begovic Palace versus Stoke City Kelly Bardsley Dann Shawcross Saturday 3pmHangeland Wilson Ward Pieters Jason Puncheon and Joe Ledley are doubts for Zaha N’Zonzi Palace although they have Zaha and McArthur who McArthur Cameron can come in. Puncheon had been suffering from an Jedinak Bojan illness which meant he missed Thursday’s training Bolasie Walters session and will be assessed on matchday. Chamakh Crouch Campbell Diouf Peter Crouch is likely to lead the line for Mark Hughes’ side with Mame Biram Diouf playing out wide. Jonathan Walters however, is a slight doubt. Other players out injured include Peter Odemwingie, Steve Sidwell and Victor Moses but Robert Huth is back and may make the bench. Most Likely… £5.00 First Goalscorer: Dwight Gayle £37.50 Best Odds: 7.5 Bet365 £5.00 Correct Score: 1-1 £32.50 Best Odds: 6.5 William Hill, Unibet VIII

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 1.15 1.05 0.10 2.20 1.25 1.10 0.15 2.35 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 2.52 3.17 2.92 -5.5%True Odds 2.64 3.36 3.08 0.0%Chance 37.9% 29.7% 32.4% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1-1 13.3% 7.54 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 1-0 12.4% 8.07 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 0-1 11.0% 9.08 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 0-0 10.3% 9.68 margin of victory. 2-1 8.0% 12.56 2-0 7.4% 13.44 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Crystal Palace Stoke City Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Speroni Begovic Kelly Dann Hangeland Ward Bardsley Shawcross Wilson PietersZaha McArthur Jedinak Bolasie N’Zonzi Cameron Chamakh Walters Bojan Diouf Campbell Crouch IX

XISTARTINGFoster Guzan WBA versus Aston Villa Wisdom Hutton Lescott Vlaar Saturday 3pm Clark McAuley Cissokho West Brom will once again be without key playersPocognoli Delph Chris Brunt and Jonas Olsson but Stephane Gardner Cleverley Sessegnon and Victor Anichebe should be fit after Sanchez minor injury issues. If Anichebe is not declared fit Morrison Weimann then Berahino could lead the line, or Irvine could call Dorrans Agbonlahor upon Brown Ideye. Claudio Yacob is back in Berahino Benteke contention after serving a ban.Sessegnon Anichebe Ron Vlaar and Fabian Delph have both returned to training for Paul Lambert’s side and both could be starters for Villa in their game against rivals West Brom. Nathan Baker and Philippe Senderos are still unavailable. Most Likely… First Goalscorer: Saido Berahino £5.00 Best Odds: 6.65 YouWin £33.25 Correct Score: 1-1 £5.00 Best Odds: 7 William Hill £35.00 X

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 1.35 1.05 0.30 2.40 1.30 0.95 0.35 2.25 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 2.11 3.25 3.67 -5.4%True Odds 2.19 3.45 3.93 0.0%Chance 45.6% 29.0% 25.4% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1-1 12.9% 7.73 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 1-0 12.9% 7.73 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 0-0 9.7% 10.28 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 0-1 9.7% 10.28 margin of victory. 2-1 8.6% 11.62 2-0 8.6% 11.62 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.West Bromwich Albion Aston Villa Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Foster GuzanWisdom Lescott McAuley Pocognoli Hutton Vlaar Clark Cissokho Gardner Morrison Sessegnon Berahino Delph Cleverley Sanchez Dorrans Anichebe Weimann Benteke Agbonlahor XI

XISTARTINGHamer Hart Foxes versus Manchester City De Laet Zabaleta Morgan Kompany Saturday 3pmWasilewski DemichelisKonchesky Kolarov Leicester have a full strength side to chose from Navas apart from their number one, Kasper Schmeichel. James Toure Schmeichel has been ruled out for around five weeksCambiasso Nasri and this will see Ben Hamer take his place in goal. Fernandinho Schlupp Silva The big news for Manchester City fans is the loss of Mahrez Dzeko Sergio Aguero once again. The striker picked up a knee injury in the win against Everton and will be Vardy out for a few weeks. The good news though, is that Ulloa David Silva and Vincent Kompany are fit and look set to start. Most Likely… First Goalscorer: Edin Dzeko £5.00 Best Odds: 5 Boylesport £25.00 Correct Score: 1-2 £5.00 Best Odds: 9.5 Bet Victor £47.50 XII

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 1.01 2.20 -1.19 3.21 1.05 2.25 -1.20 3.30 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 6.66 4.52 1.47 -5.2%True Odds 7.52 4.90 1.51 0.0%Chance 13.3% 20.4% 66.3% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1-2 9.8% 10.17 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 0-2 9.6% 10.37 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 1-1 8.8% 11.34 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 0-1 8.6% 11.57 margin of victory. 1-3 7.3% 13.68 0-3 7.2% 13.95 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Leicester City Manchester City Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-upDe Lest Hamer Hart Kolarov Morgan Wasilewski Konchesky Zabaleta Kompany Demichelis Schlupp Navas Fernandinho Toure Nasri SilvaMahrez Cambiasso James Ulloah Vardy Dzeko XIII

XISTARTINGCech McGregor Chelsea versus Hull City Ivanovic Chester Cahill Davies Saturday 3pm Terry Dawson Brady Matic returns from suspension for Chelsea althoughAzpilicueta Livermore Cesc Fabregas is out for the same reason. Cech will Matic Huddlestone start ahead of the injured Courtois, and Ramires or Elmohamady John Obi Mikel will partner Matic. Ramires Quinn Oscar Ramirez Steve Bruce is likely to go with three at the back, Jelavic meaning Robbie Brady or John Robertson will take Hazard up one of the wingback roles; Elmohamady will take Willian the other. Up front Bruce has options with Jelavic or Hernandez playing in front of Aluko or Ramirez, Costa the later who has just served a three match ban. Most Likely… First Goalscorer: Diego Costa £5.00 Best Odds: 3.5 Bet Fred, Ladbrokes £17.50 Correct Score: 2-0 £5.00 Best Odds: 6 Bet Fred, Paddy Power £30.00 XIV

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 2.52 0.44 2.08 2.96 2.65 0.45 2.20 3.10 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 1.17 7.30 17.04 -5.0%True Odds 1.19 8.32 23.87 0.0%Chance 83.8% 12.0% 4.2% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 2-0 16.1% 6.22 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 3-0 13.8% 7.23 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 1-0 12.5% 8.02 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 4-0 8.9% 11.21 margin of victory. 2-1 7.2% 13.82 3-1 6.2% 16.07 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. Chelsea See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Predicted Line-up Hull City Predicted Line-up Cech McGregor DaviesIvanovic Cahill Terry Azpilicueta Chester Dawson Ramires Matic Elmohady Livermore Huddlestone Quinn Brady Ramirez Willian Oscar Hazard Jelavic Costa XV

XISTARTING Szczesny Alnwick Gunners versus Newcastle United Bellerin Janmaat Mertesacker Coloccini Saturday 5:30pm Dummett Debuchy Haidara With Arteta, Monreal, Ozil, Wilshere and Walcott Gibbs Colback already sidelined, Arsenal can now add Aaron Flamini Abeid Ramsey, Laurent Koscielny, Thomas Rosicky Cabella (doubt) and Callum Chambers (suspended) to thatOxlade-Chamberlain Ameobi list. Expect to see either Hector Bellerin or Stefan Cazorla Ayoze Perez O’Connor come into the defence and Oxlade Welbeck Cisse Chamberlain or perhaps Francis Coquelin form the Sanchez double pivot with Matthieu Flamini. Giroud XVI Newcastle also have problems with Krul, De Jong, Santon, Aarons and Sissoko (suspended) all missing out. Like Arsenal, Newcastle are strong up front with Cisse, Cabella and Ayoze Perez all available to choose from. Most Likely… First Goalscorer: Alexis Sanchez £5.00 Best Odds: 5.25 SpreadEX £26.25 Correct Score: 2-0 £5.00 Best Odds: 8 Bet365, Paddy Power £40.00

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 2.08 0.85 1.23 2.93 2.15 0.90 1.25 3.05 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 1.45 4.53 7.13 -5.1%True Odds 1.49 4.91 8.11 0.0%Chance 67.3% 20.4% 12.3% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 2-0 11.2% 8.93 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 1-0 10.7% 9.38 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 2-1 9.9% 10.15 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 1-1 9.4% 10.65 margin of victory. 3-0 7.8% 12.76 3-1 6.9% 14.49 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Arsenal Newcastle United Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Szczeny AlnwickBellerin Mertesacker Debuchy Gibbs Janmaat Coloccini Dummett Haidara Flamini Chamberlain Colback Abeid Welbeck Cazorla Sanchez Cabella Ayoze Perez Ameobi Cisse Giroud XVII

XISTARTINGDe Gea Mignolet Man U versus Liverpool Young Johnson Evans Skrtel Sunday 1:30pm Rojo Toure McNair Moreno Chris Smalling is ruled out for United meaning a Valencia Sterling back three of Evan, Rojo and McNair is likely. Fellaini Gerrard Rooney and Van Persie could form the attack with Carrick Lucas Angel Di Maria missing with a hamstring injury, Mata Henderson although Radamel Falcao is an option for Van Gaal. Rooney LallanaVan Persie Lambert Balotelli may come in for Lambert although he is a slight doubt after missing six weeks. Brendan Rodgers could call upon Philippe Coutinho to replace Lallana who has been playing with a rib injury lately. Emre Can is also an option for Rodgers in centre midfield. Most Likely… First Goalscorer: Robin Van Persie £5.00 Best Odds: 5.5 Ladbrokes, Sky, W.Hill £27.50 Correct Score: 1-1 £5.00 Best Odds: 8 Bet Victor £40.00 XVIII

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 1.63 1.00 0.63 2.63 1.75 1.05 0.70 2.80 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 1.80 3.66 4.43 -5.5%True Odds 1.86 3.92 4.82 0.0%Chance 53.7% 25.5% 20.8% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution) Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1-1 11.6% 8.65 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 1-0 11.2% 8.91 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 2-1 9.7% 10.36 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 2-0 9.4% 10.67 margin of victory. 0-1 6.9% 14.45 0-0 6.7% 14.88 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Manchester United Liverpool Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up De Gea Mignolet Rojo Evans McNair Johnson Skrtel Toure Moreno MataValencia Fellaini Carrick Young Henderson Gerrard Lucas Van Persie Rooney Lallana Lambert Sterling XIX

XISTARTING Tremmel Lloris Swansea versus Tottenham Hotspur Rangel Walker Williams Fazio Sunday 4pm Bartley Vertonghen Davies Gerhard Tremmel replaces Fabianski in goal for Taylor Eriksen Swansea as their first team ‘keeper serves a one Ki Bentaleb match ban. Tom Carroll is unavailable for this game Mason due to the fact he is on loan from Tottenham and Britton Lamela Jonjo Shelvey will be hoping to start ahead of LeonRoutledge Kane Britton. Soldado Montero Tottenham have options in defence with WalkerSigurdsson back (replacing Eric Dier). They also have Vertonghen, Fazio, Kaboul and Cheriches to chose Bony from for a centre back role. Up front Adebayor misses out meaning Soldado and Kane will start. Most Likely… First Goalscorer: Wilfried Bony £5.00 Best Odds: 6 TitanBet, BetVernons £30.00 Correct Score: 1-1 £5.00 Best Odds: 7 Bet Victor, William Hill £35.00 XX

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 1.31 1.19 0.12 2.50 1.40 1.25 0.15 2.65 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 2.45 3.33 2.87 -5.7%True Odds 2.57 3.55 3.04 0.0%Chance 38.9% 28.1% 32.9% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1-1 12.6% 7.93 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 1-0 10.3% 9.68 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 0-1 9.3% 10.71 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 2-1 8.5% 11.75 margin of victory. 1-2 7.7% 13.01 0-0 7.7% 13.07 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Swansea City Tottenham Hotspur Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Tremmel LlorisRangel Williams Bartley Tiendalli Walker Fazio Vertonghen Davies Lamela Britton Ki Bentaleb Mason Eriksen Routledge Sigurdsson Montero Kane Bony Soldado XXI

XISTARTINGHoward Green Everton versus Queens Park RangersColeman Isla Distin Dunne Monday 8pm CaulkerJagielka Yun Martinez has confirmed that James McCarthy, Baines Vargas Steven Naismith and John Stones all have a good Barton chance of making the squadlist for the game againstMcCarthy Henry QPR. Unfortunately, Garreth Barry misses out Osman Fer through suspension having picked up his fifth yellow Mirallas Kranjcar card this season. Barkley Zamora Eto’o Charlie Austin is suspended for QPR and Krancjar Lukaku will likely start behind Bobby Zamora. Henry and Barton should form the cenrtral midfield partnership with Sandro still sidelined. Most Likely… First Goalscorer: Romelu Lukaku £5.00 Best Odds: 5 Coral £25.00 Correct Score: 2-0 £5.00 Best Odds: 7.5 Bet Victor, Bet365 £37.50 XXII

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 1.91 0.72 1.19 2.63 2.05 0.75 1.30 2.80 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 1.44 4.41 7.44 -5.6%True Odds 1.48 4.80 8.63 0.0%Chance 67.6% 20.8% 11.6% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1-0 13.2% 7.55 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 2-0 13.0% 7.67 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 1-1 9.7% 10.35 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 2-1 9.5% 10.50 margin of victory. 3-0 8.6% 11.68 0-0 6.7% 14.88 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Everton Queens Park Rangers Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Howard GreenColeman Distin Jagielka Baines Isla Dunne Caulker Yun Vargas Fer McCarthy Osman Barton HenryMirallas Eto’o Barkley Kranjcar Lukaku Zamora XXIII

Odds Ready ReckonerDecimal Fraction Implied Decimal Fraction Implied Example: Decimal odds of 3.10 are equivalent to 2.1/1 Probability Probability (written as 21/10 in fractional odds).1.2 1/5 83.3% 2.63 13/8 38.0%1.22 2.9 82.0% 2.7 17/10 37.0% decimal odds (3.10) - 1 = fractional odds (2.1/1 or 21/10)1.25 1/4 80.0% 2.75 7/4 36.4%1.28 2/7 78.1% 2.8 9/5 35.7% Fractional odds to decimal odds:1.3 3/10 76.9% 2.88 15/8 34.7%1.33 1/3 75.2% 2.9 19/10 34.5% (21 ÷ 10) + 1 = 3.11.35 7/20 74.1% 3 2/1 33.3%1.36 4/11 73.5% 3.1 21/10 32.3% Now you can convert this to the implied probability:1.4 2/5 71.4% 3.13 85/40 31.9%1.44 4/9 69.4% 3.2 11/5 31.3% 1 (100%) ÷ 3.1 = 0.3226 (32.26%)1.45 9/20 69.0% 3.25 9/4 30.8%1.47 40/85 68.0% 3.3 23/10 30.3% How much will I win?1.5 1/2 66.7% 3.33 100/30 30.0%1.53 8/15 65.4% 3.38 95/40 29.6% If you put £10.00 on odds of 8/13 (1.62), you would get1.57 4/7 63.7% 3.4 12/5 29.4% £16.20 back including your stake, so a £6.20 profit.1.6 3/5 62.5% 3.5 5/2 28.6%1.62 8/13 61.7% 3.6 13/5 27.8% If you put £1.00 on odds of 15/2 (8.5), you would get1.63 5/8 61.3% 3.75 11/4 26.7% £8.50 back, so a £7.50 profit.1.66 4/6 60.2% 3.8 14/5 26.3%1.7 7/10 58.8% 4 3/1 25.0% Staking Strategy1.72 8/11 58.1% 4.2 16/5 23.8%1.8 4/5 55.6% 4.33 10/3 23.1% The Odds Ready Reckoner is ideal as a simple but1.83 5/6 54.6% 4.5 7/2 22.2% useful staking tool. If you want to win £100.00 from1.9 9/10 52.6% 4.6 18/5 21.7% each bet you place, then all you need to do is place the1.91 10/11 52.4% 5 4/1 20.0% percentage equivalent. E.G. If a team is 3/1 to win, you1.95 20/21 51.3% 5.5 9/2 18.2% place £25.00 (as the odds represent 25%) and you will2 1/1 50.0% 6 5/1 16.7% get £100.00 back. This is a better way to use your2.05 21/20 48.8% 6.5 11/2 15.4% betting money as the amount you are risking is2.1 11/10 47.6% 7 6/1 14.3% proportional to the chance of winning.2.2 6/5 45.5% 7.5 13/2 13.3%2.25 5/4 44.4% 8 7/1 12.5%2.3 13/10 43.5% 8.5 15/2 11.8%2.38 11/8 42.0% 9 8/1 11.1%2.4 7/5 41.7% 9.5 17/2 10.5%2.5 6/4 40.0% 10 9/1 10.0%2.6 8/5 38.5% 11 10/1 9.1% XXIV

Odds CompilerAverage Odds GlossaryThe average odds from various bookmakersWorldwide.Expected/Predicted GoalsA team’s estimated goals that it should score in thegiven game on average.Implied OddsAn assumed chance, written as odds, that an event hasof happening.Mean AverageThe mean average is the average which we use in basicmaths. It is calculated by dividing the total number ofsomething by how many events. For example, ifChelsea had conceded 1, 0, 0, 1, 1 and 2 goals in theirlast six games, the average goals they have concededis 0.83.5 (the total goals) divided by 6 (the number ofmatches).Poisson DistributionA statistical model that uses the mean to calculate thechance of absolute numbers. For example, ifManchester United’s average goals per game is 2.08(their mean average), then the Poisson formula willcalculate the chance of them scoring 0, 1, 2 and so on.True Odds/ChanceThese are the odds that do not have a bookmaker’smargin applied. After the bookmakers haveincorporated their profit margin into the odds, theyare lower than what the true chance reflects. XXV