Hazard Risk Resilience Magazine Volume 1 Issue1

THIS ISSUE HAZARDIn Search of Tipping Points RISKRegenerating Brownfield RESILIENCELand SustainablyRebuilding after Cyclone SidrClimate Change and Coffee© Espen Rasmussen/Panos Pictures

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS COVERS: EDITORS Rebuilding the embankment in Padma Pakur, Bangladesh Dave Petley and Brett Cherry after Cyclone Alia ravaged the area in 2009. Villagers form a human chain to carry mud up the embankment COPY EDITOR to defend against sea level rise that affects hundreds of Krysia Johnson thousands of people living on islands in south Bangladesh. Where migration is not an option for people living on the CONTRIBUTORS low-lying islands, adaptation is imperative for survival. Victoria Ridley Md NadiruzzamanIts aim is to provide information body that reports on the state of climate change are important Brett Cherryabout the research that we and the science of climate change, primarily not of its own right Dave Petleyothers are undertaking across the IPCC, is conservative in but in the context of other Matthew Kearnesthe broad areas of hazard, risk its reporting of the magnitude major changes in the David Divineand resilience, especially the of observed and anticipated global system, including Katie Ovenfindings. We hope that this changes to the climate system. population growth, water Peter Swiftmagazine will be interesting resource depletion, ecosystem Jack Barnardand informative, and needless However, it is also clear simplification, increased JD Asquithto say we welcome any feedback that parts of the scientific urbanisation and reducing Folarin Akinbamithat you might have, good or community are proving to be food security. It is combinations Mylène Rivabad. We intend to produce somewhat unhelpful in the of these and other challengestwo issues per year, one in the public comments that they that represents the greatest RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTSsummer and one in the winter, make about climate change. challenge to modern societies. Dave Petleysupplementing multimedia There has been a tendency Brett Cherrycommunications available via amongst some to express the Of course the same style of Alex Densmoreour website and blog. processes and risks associated language is also sometimes Sarah Curtis with climate change in what at used in the description of otherAs I write this editorial, issues times approaches apocalyptic hazards, including geophysical IHRR MANAGEMENT BOARDof science communication terms. Indeed, the term hazards and security threats. Prof Dave Petley,are once again in the news, “catastrophic” is frequently It is incumbent upon the Executive Director of IHRRespecially in relation to the over used in describing climate research community to give Prof Sarah Curtis,threats posed by the changing change, and its likely impacts, an honest and open appraisal Director of Frontier Knowledgeclimate. It is clear that to the detriment of wider of these threats, but to do so Dr Alex Densmore,the communication of this understanding of the issues. in a well-considered and Director of Hazards Researchimportant issue is becoming This is not to say that the measured manner. Prof Lena Dominelli,increasingly difficult as various threats are not real or serious Director of Vulnerabilitiesparties become more deeply – they are certainly that – but This magazine seeks to provide and Resilienceentrenched in their views. using language that at times is insight into research in many Dr Claire Horwell,It is intensely frustrating to almost religious in its fervour of these key areas, and to do Lecturer, Departmentwatch the media debate on to describe those threats is at so in a manner that illuminates of Earth Sciencesclimate change, which reflects best deeply unhelpful. There our levels of understanding,very poorly the reach and is a clear need for scientists to and in some cases our lack DESIGNsignificance of the scientific be measured and considered in of understanding of these www.wearewarm.comevidence that underpins our their communication of these important issues.understanding of the ways in threats, and to ensure that the PRINTwhich humans are causing the focus is on the probable, not DAVE PETLEY Alphagraphicsatmosphere and the oceans to the improbable, effects. There Executive Director,warm. Indeed, there is little is also a need to emphasise Institute of Hazard, Risk and Institute of Hazard,doubt that the United Nations that the threats associated with Resilience, Durham University Risk and Resilience Durham University DH1 3LE +44 (0)191 334-2257 [email protected] www.durham.ac.uk/ihrr © Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, Durham University 2012. All articles may not be reproduced without written permission.

Research highlights A round-up of recent IHRR research findings 03Features 04In Search of 10 Climate Change 16 Regenerating 19 Surviving 26 and Coffee Brownfield Land the StormTipping Points How will climate Methods to transformResearchers are on the change affect coffee brownfield land How communities inhunt for the elusive sustainably to improve Bangladesh are coping‘tipping point’ in physical growers in Africa? land quality and with the aftermath ofand social systems. community health. Cyclone Sidr.Project focus PerspectivesBuilt 24 Putting a ‘Face’ 30 Remembering 32 The Power 37 on Resilience Aberfan of ScienceInfrastructure Defining resiliencefor Older People’s within multiple Lessons learnt from the The role of strategic disciplines 1963 landslide disaster science in theCare in Conditions in South Wales governance of researchof Climate ChangeBios Introducing some of the researchers at the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience. 38 V1 | No 1

RESEARCHHIGHLIGHTS Climate change causing © Jim Asher, Butterfly Conservation plants, animals and insectsIHRR to move north and to higher elevationsPlant, animal and insect species are moving north and to higher placesin regions of the world that have the greatest levels of warming, accordingto a study co-authored by Dr Ralf Ohlemüller that was published inScience. Ohlemüller and his research team calculated how far specieswere expected to move if warming trends due to climate change were toincrease. They found that a large variety of species from butterflies tobirds and mammals have been moving north as expected in search ofa suitable climate. Using 54 previous studies on the impact of climatechange on the movement of more than 2000 different species, theydemonstrated a statistical linkage between species’ rate of movementsto higher elevations and latitudes and areas that have the highestlevels of warming due to climate change. This study is the first to linka wide range of species together that have been impacted by the Earth’schanging climate due to human production of greenhouse gases.‘Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of ClimateWarming’. Science, 333, 6045 DOI: 10.1126/science.1206432New insights into the Climate change expectedimpacts of EPSRC research to impact UK’s older populationA study by Dr Matthew Kearnes and Dr Matthias Wienroth Extreme weather events due to climate change are expected to increasereveals how the distinction between science and politics is in the UK within the next 30 years that will affect built infrastructure‘utilised as a resource in both sustaining an institutional depended on by older people. A study from IHRR’s BIOPICCC (Builtidentity and developing political strategies’. They concluded Infrastructure for Older People’s Care in Conditions of Climate Change)that measuring and quantifying the impacts made by public project led by Dr Katie Oven and Prof Sarah Curtis, has mapped futureresearch funding are used as devices to render science risks of extreme weather along with the growth of older populationsand research valuable. The EPSRC in effect reframes ideas in England. The study includes work from Dr Ralf Ohlemüller, Dr Simof research excellence by adopting different conceptual Reaney and Dr Mylène Riva. Researchers found that some areas ofstrategies such as widening the meaning of ‘impact’ to the UK likely to experience extreme weather events such as floods andinclude societal and policy impacts along with economic heatwaves will also have large concentrations of older people in the futureones. (See ‘The Power of Science’ p.37 of this issue). requiring adaptations to be made. The study has produced maps that identify parts of England where resilience strategies will be most needed‘Tools of the Trade: UK Research Intermediaries and and severely tested in adapting older people’s health and social carethe Politics of Impacts’. Minerva, 49, 2 DOI: 10.1007/s facilities to climate change. (See ‘Built Infrastructure for Older People’s11024-011-9172-4 Care in Conditions of Climate Change’ p.24 of this issue.) Climate Change and Health and Social Care: Defining Future Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk for Infrastructure Systems Supporting Older People’s Health Care in England. Applied Geography, 33: 16-24 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.05.012

05Living amongst landmines and clusterbombs on the Lebanon/Israeli borderPhysical hazards receive a great deal of attention Clare Collingwood, a PhD student in IHRR and New opportunities are available afterfrom the mainstream press, but man-made the Dept of Geography is investigating the extent contamination is cleaned up, but how thesephysical hazards also exist especially in the of the landmine and cluster bomb contamination spaces are re-populated and developedforms of explosives left from military warfare. in Lebanon including their removal, which can remains unclear. The research is funded byThe border between Lebanon and Israel, known prevent harm and potentially save many lives. the ESRC CASE scholarship scheme and theas the ‘The Blue Line’, is a prime example of the For her research, Collingwood is looking at how Mines Advisory Group (MAG).severity of these types of hazards and what they after spaces are cleared of landmines or clustermean for the people that live there. bombs they are reclaimed and developed. © JB Russell / MAGTargeted regeneration could be keyto boosting health of coalfieldcommunities in the UKResearch by Dr Myléne Riva and Prof Sarah Curtis confirms that bettereconomic conditions, well-being and health seem to go hand in hand.The research also reveals an increased likelihood of long-term limitingillness in some coalfield communities that have faced economicchallenges. But some have done better than others in terms of health,possibly exemplifying cases of resilience. The findings could informefforts in regeneration of human health in economically disadvantagedareas. They are important for understanding the health inequalities stillpresent in coalfield communities, but also help identify areas that aremost vulnerable in order to help government and community groupsassist in regeneration efforts to address health inequalities directly.(For more about this research see an in-depth interview with Dr MylèneRiva about the study on IHRR’s blog: http://wp.me/pSWpn-z1).‘Coalfield health effects: Variation in health across former coalfieldareas in England’. Health & Place, 17, 2 DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2010.12.016

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOSImproving ecology of the River Eden © Eden Rivers TrustThe Eden Demonstration Test Catchment (EdenDTC) project co-directedby Dr Sim Reaney is monitoring river water quality through ten differentstations located throughout the River Eden and its tributaries. Datacollected about the water quality of the rivers is available to farmers, localcommunities and anyone interested in improving river health in the UKor elsewhere in the world. Problems with agricultural pollution arise fromfertiliser, livestock manure and soil erosion. Monitoring the River Edencan test measures implemented by farmers and the Environment Agencyto reduce diffuse pollution entering the river. Small changes to howfarmers manage their land can lead to significant improvements in riverwater quality, but also help them preserve top soil and reduce nutrientlosses. The Eden DTC project is part of a recent framework developedby the European Commission to improve river water quality in theEuropean Union through citizen action.Water quality data of the River Eden is currently availableon the Eden DTC’s website: www.edendtc.org.ukHow earthquakes build and destroy mountainsEarthquakes build mountains through 60,000 landslides in the Longmen Shan They were also able to measure the height ofuplift but also erode them by causing Mountains close to the Tibetan Plateau. the Longmen Shan Mountains before and afterlandslides, bringing them back down The earthquake killed close to 80,000 the earthquake in order to estimate how muchagain. Rob Parker’s PhD in IHRR looks people, leaving a lasting impact on at material was added. They found that largeat the evolution of hillslope stabilities least 15 million people. A study published shallow earthquakes may actually be reducingand how landslide hazards change over in Nature Geoscience by Rob Parker, Dr the volume of mountains, leading to land loss.time in mountain ranges that experience Alex Densmore, Dr Nick Rosser, Prof Daveearthquakes. He is asking one simple Petley and Siobhan Whadcoat, using remote ‘Mass wasting triggered by the 2008question in his research: Do large satellite imaging, mapped landslides Wenchuan earthquake greater than orogenicearthquakes build or destroy mountains? triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake and growth’. Nature Geoscience, 4, 449–452A 7.9 magnitude earthquake in China known found that an estimated volume of material DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1154.as the ‘Wenchuan Earthquake’ triggered over between 5-15 km3 was moved by landslides.

07Exploring groundwater The role of trust in the resiliencearsenic contamination of financial marketsin Bangladesh In a fascinating study from Work Package 2 The realisation that sub-prime mortgage loanAn important study from Prof Peter Atkins of the Tipping Points project: ‘Financial Crisis originators systematically failed to verify theand Dr Manzurul Hassan explores the in the Banking Sector: Past and Present’, credit-worthiness of sub-prime borrowersspatial variability of groundwater arsenic Prof Roman Tomasic and Dr Folarin Akinbami triggered a complete shut-down of global creditconcentrations in southwest Bangladesh. provide keen insights into the role of trust in markets which eventually resulted in a creditArsenic contaminated groundwater financial markets including investment firms crunch and then the global financial crisis.currently threatens the health of 70 and commercial banks. In this study, the authors explore some casemillion people in 61 of 64 districts studies demonstrating that trust is vital toin Bangladesh. Trust is essential to how investment and the global financial system, and can play an commercial banks and firms provide services important role in mitigating or even preventingUnderstanding the complex processes to their customers and each other. Researchers global financial crises in the future.of arsenic concentrations in groundwater argue that trust is of fundamental importanceand how they spread over time is currently in maintaining liquidity in financial markets The Role of Trust in Maintaining the Resilienceneeded. The study reveals a highly uneven and preventing financial institutions from of Financial Markets. Journal of Corporate Lawspatial pattern of arsenic concentrations. becoming insolvent during times of crisis. Studies 11, 2:369-394(26) http://dro.dur.ac.uk/9327Arsenic-safe zones were found mostlyconcentrated in the north, central and High unemployment rates in Englandsouth part of the study area in southwest lead to poor community healthBangladesh (Ghona Union, SatkhiraDistrict) but were scattered throughout. New research shows that long-term economic of the population of England overall, it is aArsenic contaminated zones were found disadvantage associated with low-levels of large sample of more than 200,000 people,in the west and northeast parts of the employment in some parts of England leads to followed for more than 20 years. Bringing thisstudy area. poor community health. The study authored by information together with local employment Dr Mylène Riva and Prof Sarah Curtis looked at information, produced specially for this study,Modelling used in the study showed employment rates in different areas of England has produced a new perspective on risks toa decrease in arsenic concentration from 1981 to 2008. They examined how health from poor economic conditions.with an increase in aquifer depth. employment trends are related to mortality(An interview with Dr Manzurul Hassan and illness. The results underline the importance of effortsabout the arsenic groundwater disaster to improve health in areas with especiallyin Bangladesh is available on IHRR’s One group of people in the study lived in ‘deep-seated, persistent deprivation and healthblog: http://wp.me/pSWpn-8Q). disadvantaged areas where employment rates disadvantage’. The situation in these areas is of had been persistently low for nearly three particular concern given that we are undergoingApplication of geostatistics with Indicator decades. This group had worse health by the a general and prolonged economic downturn,Kriging for analyzing spatial variability end of the study period and had worse risks of which is likely to affect these disadvantagedof groundwater arsenic concentrations mortality, especially in comparison with people areas most seriously, now and in the future.in Southwest Bangladesh. Journal of living in places where employment had beenEnvironmental Science and Health, buoyant and well above the national average This study illustrates work in the IHRR aboutPart A. 46, 11 for a long time. risks for human populations that operate overwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21879851 the long-term. It shows that these long-running The ‘health gap’ between people in areas challenges to human health and well-being of low employment and high employment are important, as well as risks that happen are considerable. Researchers say that local suddenly. Building resilience to such long-term improvement in some areas would need to risks is an essential goal for human societies. be significant in order to eradicate the health inequalities between communities in England Long-term local area employment rates as with different local labour market conditions. predictors of individual mortality and morbidity: a prospective study in England, spanning more The research is unusual because relatively than two decades. Journal of Epidemiology and few studies have investigated the risks for Community Health. DOI:10.1136/jech-2011- health associated with long-term trends in 200306 local economic conditions. Although the population studied is not exactly representative

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS From Detecting landslidesAround with earthquake monitoring networks theWorldLarge, fast landslides, especially to have a characteristic set ofthose formed from hard rock, waveforms – a landslide ‘fingergenerate earthquake waves that print’ – that allows them tocan be recorded remotely. This be distinguished from otherprovides the potential to detect events that generate seismicremotely large landslides as signals. The research shows thatthey occur and to determine scientists are one step closerparameters such as the speed of to remote monitoring of largemovement. landslide events, especially those in high mountain areas,A recent study published in the which may allow both a betterJournal of Geophysical Research understanding of the frequencyinvestigated these seismic of these large landslides, and thesignals, focusing on whether hazards themselves inproperties of a landslide, such real time.as volume, can be derived fromthe seismic signals recorded Dammeier, F., Moore, J.,remotely. To do this, 20 known Haslinger, F., & Loew, S.rockslides from the Alps were (2011). Characterizationcompiled, and the data recorded of alpine rockslides usingin the regional seismic network statistical analysis of seismicwas analysed for each event. signals. Journal of GeophysicalThe research demonstrates Research, 116 (F4) DOI:that these events are indeed 10.1029/2011JF002037detectable and that they tendNew model for understanding No increase in globalrock fall behaviour risk for big earthquakesRockfalls kill hundreds of people per year worldwide, and they cause Despite the large magnitude earthquakes that have occurred in Japan,severe economic disruption along railway lines and roads. During the New Zealand, Sumatra, Chile and other parts of the world, the global riskwinter of 2011-12 in Scotland, a series of rockfalls on the A890 between of big earthquakes is no higher today than in the past, according to a studyLochcarron and Kyle led to its closure for over two months causing long published in PNAS. Researchers examined the timing of large earthquakesdetours (in some cases over 200 km) and serious economic disruption to with a magnitude of 7 or higher from 1900 to present, after removing locallocal communities. Over the last decade, there have been many studies clustering related to aftershocks, in order to identify any anomalies whenthat have tried to relate rates of rockfall activity to environmental drivers comparing present and past earthquake records. While the global rate ofsuch as rainfall, frost and strong winds. Perhaps surprisingly, these studies earthquakes 8 or higher in magnitude is at a record high since 2004, rateshave shown poor correlations between these environmental drivers and the have been nearly as high in the past, and the rate of smaller quakes is closerockfalls themselves. Recent research published in Earth Surface Processes to the historical average. Any global rate changes in earthquake risk wouldand Landforms provides a spectacular set of laser scan datasets to look at require the existence of actual physical mechanisms that could cause suchthe evolution of rockslope failure in Yosemite National Park. In particular, changes in the first place. While it is possible for large earthquakes to triggerit showed that 14 rockfalls in late 2010 occurred in a sequence and other earthquakes, this process increases the earthquake risk regionally,suggests that it was caused by stress redistributions associated with each not globally. The study finds that due to lack of statistical evidence of largerockfall event. Researchers have developed a mechanical model to explain earthquakes spreading over time on a global scale and physical mechanismsthis process. Whilst it has long been suggested that the development of that would cause ‘global clustering’ of earthquakes in the first place, no highercracks might be the controlling process for rockfalls, (explaining why they global risk for big earthquakes exists at this time. However, the study warnsdo not respond to environmental drivers) this study is the first to propose that the current threat of large earthquakes in Sumatra, Chile, Japan and similar areas is above its long-term average and that the ongoing dangera direct mechanical model for explaining how these events occur. posed by earthquakes should not be ignored.Stock, G.M., Martel, S.J., Collins, B.D. and Harp, E.L. 2012. Shearer, P.M. and Stark, P.B. Global risk of big earthquakesProgressive failure of sheeted rock slopes: the 2009–2010 has not recently increased. PNAS. 109, 3: 717-7121Rhombus Wall rock falls in Yosemite Valley, California, USA. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1118525109Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. DOI: 10.1002/esp.3192

09 IHRR Podcasts Online What is a Tipping Point?Reports A flood scientist, mathematician, geographer,Tipping Points political scientist, English Studies professor, andAnnual Report others, talk about what tipping point means for them in their respective fields and beyond. So ifThe first annual report from IHRR’s Tipping you’re interested in exploring the ‘meaning’ ofPoints project is available. It gives an overview tipping point, give it a listen. http://bit.ly/leTvOeof the project’s progress so far along with itsaims and goals for the future. In its first year Brownfield Regenerationthe project has shown that there is clearly muchmore to ‘tipping point’ than simply being a popular In this podcast from ROBUST (Regeneration of‘buzz word’ and that it may actually describe Brownfield Land Using Sustainable Technologies)something quite profound about the physical project, Dr Karen Johnson explains differentand social world we live in. aspects of the project including how to remediatehttp://bit.ly/pfTmnM brownfield land using recycled minerals known as manganese oxides left from the water treatmentBuilding Rural Resilience industry and other sources. http://bit.ly/ozPc8Fin Seismically Active Areas Insurers using computer modellingA research brief was published by IHRR on the to identify ‘risky clients’NERC and ESRC-funded project ‘IncreasingResilience to Natural Hazards’. This project This podcast from a graduate of the MA in Risk,focuses on how to increase the resilience of rural Health and Public Policy at Durham Universitycommunities in Nepal to earthquakes and their explains how some insurance companies are usingsecondary hazards, such as landslides. There is a computer modelling and data mining of people’sclear role to play for both the physical and social lifestyle choices found on the internet to evaluatesciences in engaging with communities vulnerable health-related risks.to earthquakes, especially communities in http://bit.ly/pM038developing countries such as Nepal.http://bit.ly/iK0VHX Video Tabletop strike-slip earthquake experiment Dr Alex Densmore demonstrates the strike- slip behaviour of an earthquake using basic materials you can find at home. This video is appropriate for teaching younger and older people (or anyone else in between) about how earthquakes occur. http://vimeo.com/32287249 Uncovering the climate of the past in Greenland Scientists from the Tipping Points project travel to Greenland to collect artifacts (insects and pollen grains) that will help them uncover the mystery of a rapid cooling event that took place in the North Atlantic around 5000 years ago. http://vimeo.com/36511751 Building Resilience to Landslides in Mountain Communities Screencast seminar from Prof Dave Petley on how mountain communities in Nepal, Japan and other countries throughout the world build resilience to landslides. http://vimeo.com/31140142

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOSIN SEARCH OFTIPPING POINTS BRETT CHERRY joins IHRR Tipping point is often defined as an All of them mostly unrelated except that researchers on their quest to instantaneous, and in some cases irreversible each involved a spontaneous, rapid, change; explore the nature of tipping points radical change that usually comes without an unpredictable, transformative turn warning. It has been thought of as being of events.‘Tipping point’ is everywhere, from politicians connected to or caused by a series of smallerannouncing the impending doom of the changes that came before it. Tipping Points, a 5-year project funded byfinancial economy to scientists explaining the the Leverhulme Trust, asks three very simpleenvironmental devastation caused by climate But tipping points are not only physical, but questions: (1) Do tipping points actually existchange. It’s in the newspapers, on the radio, social as well, in how people talk, play, fight in the world? (2) Can they be understoodin scientific journals, popular magazines and or argue, in other words – interact – on a universally i.e. does a tipping point leadingtelevised political debates. Tipping point is number of different levels. What is it about a to climate change have any similarity to ajoined by a sea of other buzz terms in wide word that draws us in, makes us understand tipping point that causes a bank crash? Anduse today, but there seems to be something or at least think we understand what’s being (3) if tipping points exist can they in any wayabout tipping point in particular that makes described? When we observe changes that be predicted or can the world prepare forit more than a mere metaphor. Tipping point lead to melting in the arctic or a population them in the future? With as many potentialseems to touch on something fundamental catching the flu from the spread of a virus, examples of tipping points in the world todayabout our understanding of the world. why is it that words like ‘tipping point’ these questions have far from straightforwardBut what makes it tick? seem to get it right? Recently, there have answers. Instead of delving into the manyWhat makes a tipping point been a wide variety of things described as possibilities of what counts as a tipping pointa ‘tipping point’? tipping points, from climate systems to and how people can study them straight away, financial and political systems and even it would be best to start at the beginning fashion trends. – the origin of the metaphor – tipping point.

11 Usage of ‘tipping point’ in academic journals from 1957 - 2009‘Metropolitan Segregation’ published Bhatanacharoen P, Greatbatch D and Clark, T. ‘The Tipping Point ofin Scientific American in 1957. the ‘Tipping Point’ Metaphor: Agency and process for waves of change’. http://wp.me/p13wbQ-6rTipping Point first became popularised by Malcolm Gladwellin his book The Tipping Point.The birth of tipping point A study led by social scientists Dr Pojanath The research team are looking at how urban Bhatanacharoen, Prof David Greatbatch and Prof planners themselves first started using ‘tip point’,What is it about metaphors that make them stick Tim Clark did a citation analysis that searched for and how it began outside of academia as well asand what allows them to continue long after their academic articles that used the term tipping point, how researchers that use tipping point referencefirst use? In order for a metaphor to be used in but it also went a bit further than that. each other. ‘This helps us to understand whatdifferent ways it needs to be grounded in some features of the term make it plastic and so enablecommonality, but be loose enough to describe The problem with citation analysis alone is that it to travel between very different discoursea diverse variety of things. As words travel from it doesn’t give you an accurate measure for communities’, says Clark.person to person and culture to culture they how words actually spread. Researchers usedoften transform into something else; they create an alternative approach known as ‘discourse What makes tipping point unique is that its recentsomething new for the people that use them. analysis’. This of course contains another puzzling usage by academics from a range of differentThis brings into question to what degree words term – ‘discourse’. To put it briefly, discourse often fields originates not with an obscurely knownthemselves actually affect us and whether they refers to discussion or speech, something that sociologist from the 1950s, but a journalist withinfluence the world in really big ways, which has been said. However, discourse can also imply the New Yorker by the name of Malcolm Gladwell.brings us to ‘tipping point’. much more than this in academic literature, as It was Malcolm Gladwell’s book The Tipping Point: it refers to people’s representation of the world How little things can make a big difference thatIn the social sciences, the story of tipping that is made up of ideas and concepts they have led a diverse variety of researchers in medicine,point begins in the US when it was coined by a acquired socially over time. “Discourse analysis sociology, climate science and many other fieldssociologist named Mortin Grodzins in 1957 who is a plethora of approaches which is based upon to use the term ‘tipping point’. Since 2000,published a study from the University of Chicago the premise that social realities are constructed when The Tipping Point was first published,called ‘Metropolitan Segregation’ in the journal through language”, says Bhatanacharoen. Events, the metaphor’s use sky rocketed and it literallyScientific American. In this study, Grodzins people or things represented in the media from became a buzz word over night. Tipping Pointsdescribed what is known today as ‘white-flight’ – newspapers to film and the internet are often researchers discovered that in some cases thewhen white people leave a neighbourhood after a framed in different ways creating new realities only thing that academic studies using tippingcertain number of black people move in. Grodzins of what they appear to be. For example, well- point had in common was referencing Gladwell’scalled this social phenomenon a ‘tip point’, which known political leaders are framed as tyrants, book. Before Gladwell, this term appears to bewould later evolve into ‘tipping point’. This was liberators, or even fools through different kinds virtually non-existent in scientists’ and humanitiesthe first time tipping point was used formally of media discourse. researchers’ fields and suddenly it is part of theirin sociology. Grodzins actually picked up the regular vocabulary. How could this happen soterm ‘tip point’ from urban planners and other Discourse analysis can provide a much deeper quickly and will it continue this way or will tippinghousing professionals who observed how a certain understanding of how tipping point and other point eventually go the way of the dinosaur aspercentage of black people (30 percent) would terms are used within and outside of their many metaphors before it? In order to find out, thecause the neighbourhood to ‘tip over’ and become respective contexts because, as we know, tipping Tipping Points project, along with other researchersall black. Researchers in the Tipping Points project point is not limited to only one context and can from around the world, are studying how ideaswere the first to come upon this interesting finding be interpreted in many different ways. Like plants spread both socially and culturally.that provided a clue to how words (including the and animals, words do not grow in isolation, whichideas they refer to) spread. is why discourse is important to finding out how they evolve and are copied over time.

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOSSocial learning “Humans are, first and foremost, social Time and time again we witness how focused creatures. In fact, our brains have actually social learning by a few gets amplified asIn some ways nearly everyone is acquainted evolved to handle social relations, and to learn copying by the masses”, says Bentley. Thewith copying something they have seen, heard from others rather than have to ‘re-invent the internet has only amplified this form of socialor read about. The internet is full of this kind wheel’ each time individually”, says Bentley. copying and understanding how this behaviourof activity on Google, social networking sites works may allow warnings about disease orlike Facebook, and blogs. How people copy In 2005, during the height of the bird flu other hazards to be released more strategically.each other is also of extreme importance to scare, President George W Bush delivered a While tipping point has become extremelybusiness. Retail markets, such as the fashion speech in the US warning people about the popular and social learning likely has somethingindustry, rely heavily on monitoring what people spread of the bird flu virus. This may have been to do with how its use has spread throughoutbuy. Instead of encouraging individuals to the tipping point for public awareness of bird academia and the media alike, what might itmake their own independent decisions about flu as many people were already online and actually describe about the physical world?what they wear, clothing companies attempt searching Google for further information aboutto influence people’s behaviour in order to get the disease. After Bush made his speech the The inventiveness of baby names in the USthem to buy their products. If a celebrity is imitated searches on Google for bird flu rose has tripled since the early 1990sseen wearing a pair of shoes, jacket or knickers rapidly. The announcement made by a pivotal (grey line – girls, black line – boys):from a well-known brand, others will often do political figure had led to a sudden exceptionalthe same. But it’s not always clear how and why spike in web searches beyond the normal Above: Bentley A and Ormerod P. ‘Accelerated innovation and increasedpeople make the choices they do or why they envelope of change and became a new trend. spatial diversity of US popular culture’. Advances in Complex Systemscopy certain things and not others. Why is it (ACS). http://www.paulormerod.com/pdf/BentleyOrmerod_ACS.pdfthat the name ‘Kristi’ was one of the top 100 The internet reveals a number of interestingbaby names in the 1970s, but is now not even things about how people copy each others’in the top 1000? Despite a recording industry behaviour, that along with other examples, havedominated by digital music, why does vinyl been used to question older models scientistslive on? How did the riots in London evoke have used to study human behaviour.massive looting and vandalism across citiesthroughout the UK? There is something about Many scientists are moving away from thehow behaviour and ideas are socially learnt idea that individuals are rational, autonomousthrough copying that may hold the answer. agents, but instead are much more susceptible to the behaviour of those around them, leadingAnthropologist Dr Alex Bentley and economist them to be influenced socially in a variety ofDr Paul Ormerod discovered something unique different ways. “Social influence is a betterabout human behaviour when people were model than the ‘rational actor’ especially forpresented with information about health certain phenomena, such as how buzz wordsscares such as the avian influenza or ‘bird flu’epidemic in 2005 and the H1N1 virus in 2009, propagate and how ideas spread; how the swinebetter known as ‘swine flu’. Their researchrevealed that interest in health scares actually flu scare became an epidemic; or even howspreads socially rather than through peoplemaking actual physical contact with disease. science makes its progress.This of course doesn’t mean that all healthscares are solely driven socially, but it does Lorenz attractors. Bifurcations occur when small changes insay something about how they spread rapidly a system lead to a sudden big change, causing the system toand can be managed. divide into two or more.Human behaviour, like other forms of animalbehaviour, is learnt socially. But what makeshumans unique is that they can imitate eachother socially like no other animal that hascome before them. Many kinds of animalsincluding birds and even fish have their ownkinds of ‘culture’, but none are as good ashumans in imitating each others’ behaviour.

13The Earth’s atmosphere and oceansinteract forming one complex systemthat influences climate (photo: NASA).Climate-change- has been working on modelling one of the Those who are susceptible to alcoholism, butalcoholism-ocean-atmosphere biggest and costliest health problems known normally do not drink are at risk of becoming in the UK and other parts of the world – alcoholics through social influence. AbstinenceThere are potentially many physical and alcoholism. to drinking shifts into probability of drinkingbiological systems that involve some kind of that could lead to serious harm in susceptibletipping point. Stringing the names of some Alcoholism is a health epidemic that has populations of young people. “You can have athese together (like the heading above) makes spread widely throughout the country. Unlike certain fraction of the population with alcoholfor an amusing play on words. It doesn’t seem other models of alcoholism, a model for problems and the health care system will still bedifficult to connect tipping points in climate binge drinking, developed by Straughan and stable, but if that population becomes too highchange with tipping points in the ocean- colleague Prof Giuseppe Mulone from the it’s going to be extremely costly, so it’s problemsatmosphere system, as both are linked already, University of Citta, Italy, focuses on young like this where there clearly is a tipping point,but how can these tipping points possibly be people who admit to having a drinking problem once it gets to a certain point, can the countryrelated to a tipping point of alcoholism? Could and those that don’t. Models for epidemics afford it?”, says Straughan. For example, alcoholclimate change be causing polar bears to hit have a built-in threshold. Once this threshold is treatment for males in North East England whichthe bottle? No, it’s not that these systems passed it can lead to critical outcomes, serious has some of the highest rates of binge drinking inneed to be directly related in order for there injury or death that can spread throughout the country, increased 384 to 532 per 100,000to be a tipping point, but that they may share an entire population. Straughan says, “The people from 2000-06. The equivalent figures forsomething much more fundamental that can main parameter is the probability of someone the whole of England during the same time werebe explained mathematically. Tipping points susceptible to alcoholism being converted to 240 to 340 per 100,000. The goal of modellingmay occur in very different ways for physical, someone with alcohol problems through peer alcoholism is to ensure that a certain thresholdbiological or social systems, but they may pressure, by associating with those who drink is not exceeded in order to prevent an epidemic.also express something similar or the same in heavily. And that probability is a key parameter; For alcohol problems typical around the citymathematics. In order to explore this notion if that probability exceeds a certain level of Durham in the North East, Straughan is usingfurther Prof Brian Straughan, a mathematician, then the basic alcohol-free solution a multi-component drinking model: ‘susceptible’, becomes unstable”.

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS‘moderate’, ‘heavy’, ‘heavy and admit to having Another tipping point that has caught much One of the last major transitions that tooka problem’ and ‘in treatment’. Today, wards in attention from popular media, academia and place during a climate similar to the oneDurham and neighbouring Stockton may have government is the ‘tipping point’ associated we’re in now was a cooling event thata binge drinking rate as high as 50 percent. with climate change. occurred between 4,000-6,000 years ago. Temperatures around the North AtlanticIn order to combat the spread of alcoholism The popularity of tipping point theories of dropped and many ice masses, including thea useful model is needed to provide the climate change is relatively recent. A wide Greenland Ice Sheet, started to grow againnational healthcare system with accurate variety of scientists including climatologists after their retreat since the end of the lastpredictions, which can be used to develop an geographers, physicists and mathematicians, ice age. This cooling event has puzzledappropriate policy strategy. Binge drinking have been investigating whether our planet is climate researchers because there are noalso affects certain vulnerable populations, about to cross a critical climate threshold into obvious reasons for it to happen. It is thissuch as pregnant women, and mathematical irreversible disaster. Some are more optimistic event that researchers from Tipping Pointsmodelling could account for them in order than others saying that even if the Earth’s are currently studying to find out if indeedto help prevent disease and birth defects. temperature rises significantly in the future, this climate change represents a tippingAnother model that Straughan and Mulone the change is not necessarily irreversible. point that led to large-scale change in climate.have developed is similar to one used for Other theories posited by researchers are far Long says, “When we think about climatepeople with bulimia that is split into two grimmer stating that not only are we heading change in the past we look for large externalcategories – those that admit to having a into inevitable environmental disaster, but there forcing mechanisms which trigger a shiftproblem and those that don’t. Those that is nothing we can do about it. Finally, there is in climate such as an abrupt change in thedon’t admit to having an alcohol problem is a minority of scientists who believe human- amount of incoming solar radiation, a suddenthe larger group of the two that needs to be induced climate change is not happening and switch-off in the ocean’s circulation or theaddressed by national health policy. that there are other reasons for the planet’s collapse of an ice sheet”. According to Long, warming. This group have failed to convince the problem is that no such indicators haveModelling behaviour can assist health policy the majority of the climate science community, been found to explain the cause of the coolingmakers in looking for ways to get more people but with the help of the popular media, have event: “The rates at which global sea level wasinto treatment in order to counteract the high nonetheless convinced a significant number of rising or the ice sheets melting weren’t rapidlylevels of alcoholism in communities and help people throughout the world, despite a large, changing at that time and the conventionalthem become alcohol-free. There are still increasing amount of scientific evidence to the drivers of climate during the mid-Holoceneother problems however to do with relapse contrary. But how do sudden, rapid shifts in seem to be fairly benign, yet we see from awhich is currently 60-90 per cent according the Earth’s climate happen in the first place? variety of past evidence that the climate into recent estimates and modelling the number the North Atlantic region and beyond actuallyof people who go from not admitting to “There is no such thing as a single climate, changed quite significantly”. In order toadmitting they have an alcohol problem is there are multiple climates over space and we investigate how this rapid cooling event tookfar from straightforward. If there is a tipping know from our present understanding of the place, scientists suspect that interactionspoint in alcoholism that leads to an epidemic Earth’s atmospheric system that many places between the ocean and atmosphere couldin populations in North East England, or other warm up while other places simultaneously cool be responsible.parts of the world, then mathematics may down. The question is whether or not we canhold the answer to stopping the problem see patterns of climate behaviour which mightbefore it starts. make a coherent story about what is happening on average”, says Prof Antony Long, one of the lead climate scientists on Tipping Points.

15As the sea ice melts in the Arctic, less incoming solar radiationis reflected and is absorbed by the dark ocean waters, causingmore sea ice to melt (photo: NASA).It is the coupling of ocean and atmosphere Positive feedbacks also play a role in what is So the changes impacting a system eithermodels that serve as the basis of global known as ‘hysteresis’. In hysteresis, temporary internally or externally may not come intoclimate models because interactions between changes in a system are not only long-term, but effect until much later. According to Long, inboth of these complex systems have one of the irreversible. If someone is to make sense of the terms of understanding future changes in thegreatest influences on climate. For example, headline splashed on the cover of the morning Earth’s climate: “We can eyeball the data; wesince the ocean covers more than 70 percent newspaper: ‘We have passed the climate tipping can look at patterns from here and patternsof the Earth’s surface it stores vast amounts of point’, this could be understood as an extreme from there. But a more powerful way of doingheat, most of which is located at the equator. example of hysteresis, where ultimate climate this is to integrate your observations withAs the heat rises, it warms the atmosphere and change disaster is irreversible, but it is also climate modelling and that’s why we need ourcreates air temperature gradients (layers of hot not that simple. The Greenland ice sheet keeps mathematicians and other colleagues helpingand cold air) along with winds. These winds retreating further and further due to positive us look at the data we’re developing”.push against the sea surface, driving ocean feedbacks that lead to more melting, however,currents that circulate warm and cold ocean it is still uncertain as to whether it is indeed Whether tipping point describes actual, suddenwaters to different parts of the planet. In a irreversible. The Greenland Ice Sheet has been or transformative events in the world or issense, the Earth’s ocean and atmosphere much smaller today than in the past – for simply a useful metaphor, it has created anform one complex system that directly example during the last interglacial, about ongoing global discussion that seems to haveinfluences climate. 130,000 years ago, scientists now think the its own positive feedbacks. The more tipping ice sheet reduced in size by as much as a third point is used in and outside of the social andWhen the ocean and atmosphere interact they – but it didn’t melt entirely. In fact, it “re-grew physical sciences, the more it seems to affectcreate ‘positive feedbacks’ that influence to larger than its present size during the last how people identify spontaneous changes inone another in astonishing ways. Long says, ice age”, says Long. If small changes do the world that we are only beginning to“A positive feedback is something which make a big difference then much can be understand. If we are to become more awarereinforces the consequences of an initial learnt from the past. of these unique changes over time and howchange”. He gives the example of a climate they affect the world we live in, the tippingprocess known as the ‘ice-albedo feedback’. As Long has noted, in the case of the point concept may serve as a way to illuminateSea ice in the Arctic is highly reflective. mid-Holocene cooling event, there appear pathways of knowledge never before taken.Because it’s white it can reflect a lot of to be no obvious external factors that brought If it does, we could be at the brink of unitingincoming solar radiation back out into space, about this important cooling of the climate the world we experience with the seeminglymaintaining or creating colder temperatures, in the North Atlantic region. This means that unknown, myriad of complexity that lieswhich in turn can create more sea ice. On there may be small internal changes in the beneath it.the other hand, if more sea ice is melting it climate system that haven’t been accountedexposes more of the dark, low albedo sea, for. But there is a bigger problem still – if the We may be on the verge of a tipping point.which absorbs more solar radiation and heats changes are internal, and are the result ofup the atmosphere, melting more sea ice. positive feedbacks within the system, it may For further information about the TippingThese examples of positive feedbacks are prove highly difficult for researchers to be able Points project visit www.durham.ac.uk/common in high northern latitudes where to detect them. Hysteresis also means that ihrr/tippingpoints.changes in surface albedo of the land or the systems may have a kind of ‘memory’ oroceans can change quickly. “That’s why many ‘lag in time’. Brett Cherry is the Research Writer and Disseminationscientists think that in the future or even today Officer for IHRR which includes co-editing Hazard Riskthe Arctic is warming much more quickly than Resilience and managing the IHRR Blog: ihrrblog.org.lower latitudes”, said Long.

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS VICTORIA RIDLEY explains how climate change The value of coffee in East Africa threatens one of East Africa’s biggest cash crops Across the East Africa region arabica coffee thrives in pockets usually atHigh-up in the forested mountains of South-East high altitudes. Coffee farming and the associated production industriesEthiopia, a country more famed for famine than employ millions of people across the region and contribute greatly toagricultural productivity, green trees with plump the East African economy, an area often associated with poverty strickenred berries thrive. These are Coffea arabica trees, nations. The economic importance of coffee is striking. According to thethe source of arabica coffee that is native to this UN, in 2008 the small landlocked country of Burundi was the eighthregion of Ethiopia. Dubbed ‘Black Gold’ in a 2006 poorest in the world and coffee accounted for 84 percent of the total valuefilm, coffee is one of the world’s most valuable of agricultural exports. In Ethiopia, it is not only the economic value ofagricultural commodities and in Ethiopia alone coffee that is important to the nation. As the homeland of arabica coffee,15 million people are dependent upon this industry. producing, brewing and drinking coffee is deeply engrained into Ethiopian history, culture and heritage.

17Like all crops, a bountiful coffee harvest is Such changes in our weather systems will These areas will have to diversify their fooddependent to a great extent upon climatic affect agricultural productivity and the sources, by importing their crop of choice fromconditions. Arabica coffee is a climatically Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change other areas or grow alternative food crops thatsensitive plant: it requires temperatures that (IPCC) has identified that agriculture-based are more suited to the modified climate.are not too hot, not too cold, perfectly timed industries will be amongst the most affected For coffee farmers, diversification is farprecipitation and no frost. Without these exact by future climatic changes. Indeed, several more complex.conditions, yields fall, quality declines and studies have addressed the risk posed bydisease amongst plants can become endemic. climatic change on stable food crop yields in Growers of coffee are dependent upon the key producer regions, and in some areas it crop for an income, not just for subsistenceOver the next century, climate scientists is predicted that the yields of wheat, maize, living as many farmers of food crops are inpredict that global temperatures will rise, that rice and millet may be negatively affected by developing nations. Coffee plants take severalprecipitation will become increasingly erratic, predicted changes in temperature and rainfall. years to mature, so farmers must wait untiland that extreme events such as floods and their investment starts to payback. Given thedroughts will become more commonplace. time to reach maturity, growers are unable to switch between crops on an annual basis. Coffee farming is usually the main activity for many families throughout large regions that are capable of producing, so if the harvest fails or is poor, an entire community and their associated dependents are affected. Establishing insightful information to determine which coffee producing regions are most threatened by future climatic changes is critical, so that communities can begin to plan, diversify and mitigate the risk posed by a changing climate. To begin to investigate these issues our project explored the past and future suitability of arabica coffee in eight East African countries. Threat of climate change Over the past 40 years the mean annual temperature in East Africa has risen by 1.2°C and annual precipitation has declined by 150mm. During the same period of time, the total area of land cultivated with arabica coffee has fallen. Using annual climate data, we established a model to identify locations within the eight East African countries that were climatically suitable for arabica coffee. To distinguish between regions that were very suitable and had near perfect climatic conditions for coffee production and areas that were within the physiological limits of arabica coffee plant development, but were not ideal, we established two different classifications of suitable locations – those that were climatically ‘optimal’ and areas that would be climatically ‘tolerable’. We found that the number of optimal and tolerable coffee growing locations had declined during the past 40 years, which suggests that changes in climate have already begun to affect coffee producers. CONTINUED >

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOSThese findings are supported by the Adaption Building resilience 1. AdapCC (2009) Adaption for Smallholdersto Climate Change for smallholders project to Climate Change. URL: www.adapcc.org(AdapCC), which was launched by the Fairtrade Identifying the limiting factors, whether regions (accessed 14/4/09).coffee company Cafédirect in 20071. Their will be too hot, too cold, too wet or too dry, cancoffee farmers in East Africa and Latin assist in building resilience within current coffee 2. www.adapcc.org/download/Final-report_America have reported that changes in climate growing communities. Our research using future Adapcc_17032010.pdf (accessed 20/05/11).have negatively affected coffee production. climate data predictions, suggests that the“I have never known the weather to be so decline in precipitation will be a more limiting 3. The study used output from the HadGEM, Echam5,unpredictable,” says Willington Wamayeye, factor than rising temperatures in determining and CSIRO3 global circulation models using the A1Bthe General Manager of the Gumutindo Coffee the number of future tolerable locations. Research and A2 emission scenarios.Cooperative in Uganda which supplies coffee to insight of this sort can begin to inform decisionCafédirect. “The coffee plants are badly affected makers. Increasing irrigation and planting Conway, D., Hanson, C.E., Doherty, R. & Persechino,– flowering is stopping. Last year alone we more drought tolerant rather than heat tolerant A. (2007) GCM Simulations of the Indian Oceanlost about 40% of our coffee production species of coffee could be the key to securing dipole influence on East African rainfall; Present andbecause of climate change 2”. the future of coffee growing communities. Future. Geophysical Research Letters, 34: LO3705 Doi:10.1029/2006GL027597.Using the output from three general circulation In recent decades, Fairtrade organisations havemodels developed by climate scientists and worked with coffee farming communities and Doherty, R.M., Sitch, S., Smith, B., Lewis, S.L. &two different emissions scenarios (giving cooperatives to champion fair prices and access Thornton, P.K. (2010) Implications of future climate anddifferent pictures of the social and economic to development opportunities. Guaranteeing a atmospheric CO2 content for regional biogeochemistry,make-up of a future world) we were able to price for coffee producers is critical as many biogeography and ecosystem services across East Africa.derive predictions for future mean annual growers live in poverty in some of the poorest Global Change Biology, 16: 617-640.temperatures and annual precipitation for countries in the world. Throughout East Africa2020, 2050 and 20803. This data was used the involvement of Fairtrade organisations with IPCC (2007) Summary for Policymakers. In, Solomon, S.,to identify the number and geographical coffee growing cooperatives has brought many Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M, . Avery, K.B.,locations of future areas of optimal and benefits to communities, including access Tignor, M. & Miller, H.L. (Eds.) Climate Change 2007: Thetolerable climatic suitability for arabica coffee. to education, new water wells and increases physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to in access to technology. However, for the the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental PanelThe results showed a decline in the number of coffee growing communities in the highlands on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.climatically optimal locations but an increase in of Ethiopia and throughout East Africa, thethe number of climatically tolerable locations. question must now be asked: in the face of Tabor, K. & Williams, J.W. (2010) Globally downscaledPerhaps good news for the East Africa area, but climate change will coffee still be a viable climate projections for assessing the conservation impactsthe geographical locations of these tolerable crop by the end of the 21st Century? of climate change. Ecological Applications, 20(2): 554-565.areas must be compared to present day areas ofsuitability. It is evident that many of the sites Further information available atthat are suitable for coffee cultivation today willnot be in years to come. For these communities www.coffeeresearch.orgmitigation strategies and diversification must www.eafca.orgbe planned for to ensure the sustainability www.adapcc.orgof livelihoods. Victoria Ridley completed an MSc by Research at Durham University through the Department of Biology and Biomedical Sciences and IHRR on the past, present and future suitability of coffee growing in eight East African nations.

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS 19REGENERATINGBROWNFIELD LANDUSING SUSTAINABLETECHNOLOGIES BRETT CHERRY investigates how a team of Durham scientists are searching for methods to restore brownfield land sustainably“Pollution is nothing After the first industrial revolution, land beganbut the resources we to undergo a rapid transition in a matter ofare not harvesting. decades. It soon became home to a plethora ofWe allow them to industries including electric power generation,disperse because coal mining, steel manufacturing, railroads, shipwe’ve been ignorant building, automotive assembly lines, motorways,of their value”. airports and a host of others that have left a deep impression on the world’s environment.RICHARD BUCKMINSTER FULLER But like other forms of human intervention, industry didn’t come without a price and despiteLand and industry underlie the development the technological age seemingly separating peopleof modern society. All around us there from the ‘natural world’ that gave birth to it,are examples of industrial engineering, today humanity is beginning to realise again themanufacturing, building, innovation and importance of land.employment. At its foundation is land. Much of the land that was once used byPrior to industry, much of the land was used industry in the past is unusable today becauseprimarily for agriculture, including plant of the environmental contamination it hascultivation and raising animals for food and left behind. While further industrialisation isclothing. Over time, the materials produced taking place all over the world, but especiallyfrom agricultural-based economies shifted in rapidly developing countries like Chinadramatically in order to supply the growing and India, many urban and rural areas –demand of cities created by industry and ‘brownfields’– have been deindustrialised andtechnology. underutilised. Contaminated brownfield land has often been avoided by communities and developers due to the risks associated with industrial pollution, yet it still remains one of our greatest resources. CONTINUED >

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOSThe problem with brownfield hectares (estimated by the EEA) and many For developing countries such as China, others. According to a report released by the brownfield land is becoming a growing problem.Brownfield carries many definitions and Concerted Action on Brownfield and Economic Much of its industrial restructuring has leftassociated risks with it. It has been defined as Regeneration Network (CABERNET) in Europe: many abandoned brownfield sites in mostlyland formerly used by industry that has some “Brownfield land will always be with us -- it urban areas. As industrial expansion continueslevel of contamination, preventing it from being is a symptom of the process of urban land in China, more of its land will be transformeddeveloped without meeting environmental and use change, seen as cities evolve to meet the into brownfields in the future. Unless thepublic safety regulatory standards. In the UK, needs and challenges of a changing society and transfer to industrialisation in China and otherhowever, it is simply defined as ‘previously economy. There will never be, nor should there developing countries is done sustainably, theredeveloped land’. There is currently no universally be, no available brownfield land”. will be an even greater need for green, low-cost,agreed definition of brownfield in Europe. The methods to regenerate brownfield land.UK currently has a total of around 76,600hectares of brownfield land (not including Brownfield density (brownfield area as % of total area of country)Wales and Northern Ireland). In 2003, theLabour government set a target of 60 percent United Kingdom Suspected / potential numberof all new housing to be located on brownfield Brownfield Land Profile of brownfield sites:land. So far the government has identified ENGLAND: 100,000enough brownfield for 50,000 new homes. Not Estimated total area of brownfield land: SCOTLAND: 4,222all of it is contaminated, but many brownfieldsites in the UK do have light to heavy levels of ENGLAND: 65,760 hectares Source:contamination, mostly left from industry. National Land Use Database ‘04In response to this vital problem, scientists and SCOTLAND: 10,847 hectares Scottish Vacant & Derelict Land Survey ‘04engineers throughout the world are researchingways to restore brownfield land at little economicor environmental cost.There are a variety of mostly expensive high-tech methods being explored for remediatingcontaminated land, but some of the conventionalones are ‘dig and dump’, where contaminatedland is moved to a landfill and ‘stabilisation andsolidification’, where cement is dug into theground to immobilise contaminants. Stabilisationand solidification, while much better than theformer, has been found unsustainable in manycases and prohibitively expensive for communitieswho want to regenerate brownfields in their area.There is also the widely used ‘cap and bury’method where impermeable barriers are created,such as slurry walls, in attempt to seal offcontaminants from the rest of the landscape.The problem with moving soil with contaminantsis that it doesn’t remediate the problem,but instead moves the source of pollution to alandfill that may even be located near placeswhere people live. Another problem with landfillsis that they are subject to the same environmentalprocesses as the rest of the land. Contaminants,such as mercury, lead and arsenic placed inlandfills have been known to leach into thegroundwater over time threatening human,plant and animal health.The problem of brownfield land is ubiquitousthroughout Europe. According to the NationalLand Use Database, other countries throughoutEurope that also have large amounts of brownfieldland include: Germany: 128,000 hectares;Poland: 800,000 hectares; France: 200,000

21 Figure 2. Computer simulations allow for the prediction of contaminant movement through soil. This can be used to help focus remediation schemes and predict their effects. Credit: Jack Barnard.Figure 1. Credit: Peter Swift. ability to oxidise organic contaminants, Figure 3. Lysimeters allow researchers to test the quality of water breaking them down. They are able to after it passes through contaminated soil. Credit: Jonathan Asquith.Science and sustainability immobilise toxic metals in the soil including lead and arsenic preventing them from By working with local communities, theThe word ‘sustainability’ has been used so entering into the ground water. team hope to develop a methodology wherebyfrequently in the recent past that it has been local communities can work with academicsdifficult to pin down exactly what it means, Manganese oxides are also used for and local authorities to regenerate theirespecially in relation to science and technology. environmental applications in industry. brownfield land.Usually, if something is sustainable it will be They are used by water treatment companiesable to endure for some time and be useful for to clean water from reservoirs before it comes The project is developing a new way togenerations to come. It also implies that there out of the tap as well as for treating air harness waste minerals for beneficial useswill be a positive environmental impact. To pollution, preventing harmful gases from being to land that could be redeveloped near wherethoroughly address the problem of brownfield emitted into the atmosphere. If manganese people already live, as brownfields are oftenland, a scientific understanding of how to oxides are recycled from the clean water interspersed amongst communities, especiallyuse resources that are already available in industry, it would prevent one of many highly in cities or places where industry was onceintelligent new ways is needed. It has become useful resources from being wasted. A method located. “Soil itself is very complex and thatcommonplace in modern society to regularly for using recycled manganese oxides and other is what we’re setting out to understand in thisdispose of potentially useful materials. minerals from these sources to decontaminate project. We’ve set up a series of soil trials withSome of the solutions to its longstanding brownfield land is currently being developed different waste mineral amendments and theenvironmental problems may actually lie in and tested by IHRR´s ROBUST (Regeneration soils contain many different contaminantswhat it wastes. Ironically, a lesser known, yet of Brownfield Using Sustainable Technologies) left from industry”, says Dr Karen Johnson,potentially effective method for remediating research project in collaboration with the a hydrogeologist who is one of the leadcontaminated brownfield land is in some of Wolfson Research Institute and funded researchers on ROBUST.the mineral wastes that are discarded from by the Engineering Physical Sciencethe clean water industry known as Water Research Council. Johnson and her research team are interestedTreatment Residuals (WTRs). in using minerals from WTRs to treat ROBUST is dedicated to developing new ways contaminated areas of land known as ‘cocktailManganese, iron and aluminium oxides left to decontaminate brownfield land sustainably sites’ that have a mixture of organic wastes,from filtration processes used to produce using manganese oxides and other recycled including petrol, heavy oil and diesel fuel,clean drinking water have the potential to minerals from WTRs, along with developing but also metals like lead. This is becausedecontaminate brownfield land cheaply and advanced methods for detecting contaminants manganese oxide and other minerals can acteffectively. Manganese oxide in particular in the soil using terahertz radiation (see Figure as a ‘defence mechanism’ within the soilforms a large part of the soil’s natural defence 1) and evaluating the long-term effectiveness that allows it to render a range of differentmechanism against pollution and is a mineral of the technology using computational contaminants inert. This is promising forwhich is present in the soil already. It is modelling of the land (see Figure 2). It is also regenerating former industrial sites becauseoften used in fertiliser and even in dietary working alongside communities that live near they often have a mix of different contaminantssupplements. What makes manganese oxides brownfields in North East England in order to present in the soil. In order to test the effectsattractive for decontaminating brownfield understand their perspective on the risks posed these minerals have on contaminated soil fromland is that they are able to transform petrol by contaminated land and involving them in brownfield sites, special containers known asand other industrial wastes into harmless developing ways to help regenerate it. ‘lysimeters’ (see Figure 3) are used to measureby-products. These chemical compounds that the quality of water that passes through theoccur naturally in the soil have the unique soil. These trials will then help determine how suitable waste minerals are for treating different kinds of contaminants in soil. CONTINUED >

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOSUsing ‘wastes’ petrol. Some minerals seem to work better into the vacant sites of the manganeseto treat waste land than others at treating specific contaminants. but it’s a strong immobilisation”, she said. According to Johnson and Finlay, iron oxideWTRs could be the key to providing effective, does particularly well at adsorbing arsenic, Finlay is currently working with Northumbrianreadily available ecological methods for but in combination with manganese oxide Water to collect samples of water treatmentregenerating brownfield land, but how are which can convert toxic forms of arsenic into residuals to see if there is a difference betweenthese ‘wastes’ actually able to treat soil with non-harmful forms, the minerals could actually the mineral contents of residuals at differenta large range of contaminants that have been have a synergistic effect on contaminated soil. times of the year. “The aim of the research isin place for years, even decades? There is a to find out what else the water treatmentwide spectrum of contaminants present in “On one hand there could be some competition residuals are good at locking up and testing itbrownfield sites formerly used by industry. The effects and on the other they could all be with real contaminated soil to see if it works”,North East of England was once a well-known working together so that is something we are says Finlay. “It’s so important to find simple,centre of the coal mining industry. Many of its really interested in finding out”, says Finlay. low-cost techniques that can be used toformer industrial sites have been reduced to Johnson says manganese controls many clean up these sites and bring them back intolittle more than wasteland carrying levels of biogeochemical reactions so it could be that beneficial use, because otherwise they’re justcontamination far above national standards. we don’t need that much manganese to reduce left”, she said.“Brownfield land is a really important issue in contaminants present in the soil. But howthe North East, but it is also overlooked. There does manganese oxide actually work? Another important reason for discoveringare often a lot of brownfield sites lying around long-term, ecological, cost-effective solutionsas stagnant, barren wastelands and they are Biogenic manganese oxides, like those in for treating brownfield is that many developingoften eye sores or attract unwelcome attention”, the WTRs, have a nanocrystalline structure, countries undergoing industrialisation are alsosays Nina Finlay, a researcher on ROBUST who meaning that from the outside it appears running into problems with brownfield land.is doing her PhD on the effects of WTRs on amorphous, but upon close inspection at the “Even though ROBUST is definitely a projectcontaminants in soil. nanoscale it is ordered giving it a number of focused on North East England we would like unique abilities for absorbing contaminants. to see the methods used in developing countries,Minerals from WTRs do one of two things to It is able to absorb metals because it has a mainly because they often have more brownfieldcontaminants in the land: they either adsorb number of vacant sites where positively charged than us. Fortunately, countries like Souththem completely, making them stick to the manganese ions are missing giving it an overall Africa, China and India also have a lot ofsurface of the material, which prevents them negative charge. Toxic metals like lead have a manganese oxides”, says Johnson.from moving through the soil, or oxidise them, positive charge so manganese oxides are ablebreaking down organic contaminants such as to swallow them up. “It’s a slow process”, says Johnson, as it takes time for the lead to moveLand, communityand healthOne of the biggest reasons for regeneratingbrownfield land is to improve the environmentfor existing communities that live near formerindustrial sites and to create new communitieson brownfield sites. This also involves engagingwith the people who are likely to benefit themost from applying sustainable methods forregenerating brownfield. “Previously, therehaven’t been any remediation techniquesavailable to councils that are cost effective”,says Johnson. Brownfield regeneration may notonly improve the health of the land, but also thehealth of the people who live on it by makingthem feel better about their local environment.Former industrial sites pock marking thelandscapes that people call home can affectdifferent aspects of their health. In formercoalfield communities in North East England,many people suffer from debilitating long-termillness. While the direct cause(s) of illnessamongst people who live near former coalfieldsis not known, a sense of hopelessness as wellas socioeconomic inequality as a result ofjoblessness pervades many of these areas.Like water, land that is free of contaminationappears essential to good physical, socialand mental health.

23 Prime Minister David Cameron’s government has cut over 1,300 pages from the UK’s National Planning Policy Framework.This is an opportunity for researchers who government interference, however, as the David Cameron strongly defends changesare interested in the physical and social law currently stands it seems that any land to the NPPF claiming that it will give localaspects of how the environment affects developments could be approved, making it communities more of a say in how planningcommunity health. quite controversial. The National Trust criticised is run. But if an enticing financial incentive the bill for not prioritising brownfield land for is given by developers to councils, what is“People have looked at the association between development as government has done in the preventing them from say building on anygreen space and health, but not specifically past. They argue that the UK’s greenbelt could greenbelt they wish that could be legallybrownfield and previously used land and well- be in danger because developers may prefer to developed under the new planning provisions?being”, says Dr Steve Robertson, a Senior develop land that has not been previously used This is why if councils are already taking soleResearcher on ROBUST who is working on soil or that has contamination. responsibility for planning permissions forremediation techniques as well as researching brownfield land in their respective countiesthe social impacts of brownfield land on The UK government has cut over 1,300 they need tools for redeveloping it themselves.community health. “Land is clearly important pages of planning guidance from the National However, some councils throughout Englandto communities. If it is seen as waste or Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) reducing it already have plans to build new homes onderelict land and is sitting in the middle of your to a mere 52 pages. Conservation groups and greenbelt including Durham County Council,community it tells people ‘we’re not building communities alike are concerned that vast areas which intends to build 3,550 homes onnew supermarkets or housing estates because of the UK’s greenbelt and rural landscape will formerly protected countryside. Newcastleno one wants to build here’”, he said. be invaded by housing developments. Kirklees upon Tyne and Gateshead plan to build 9,700 Council in Yorkshire, for example, plans to homes on greenbelt. If brownfield land is toMany communities throughout the world that build a total of 25,400 new homes by 2028, be preferred for development in the futurelive in rural, urban or suburban environments with 2,500 of them to be built on greenbelt. then new methods for genuine sustainablelive with what is left from an industrial age The Campaign to Protect Rural England and development are needed.that has been passed on to other parts of the the Kirklees Environment Partnership withdrewworld that were once untouched by modern from the group developing the proposals Low-cost, environmentally sustainabletechnological development. In the UK, laws accusing the council of ‘lack of transparency’. remediation techniques could likely play agoverning the use of brownfield and other kinds large role in the future for empowering localof land for development by communities are Since the new NPPF has become law in April, communities to take back contaminated landbeginning to change. It may mean that local the fear is that developers will bribe councils as planning policy changes over time. Theauthorities will be able to have more control into developing land leaving little room for methods and technologies being developedover the land around them that could lead to community influence to decide where and how by ROBUST may not only make available newsome improvements in regenerating land and housing should be implemented. But Planning ways to remediate brownfield land, but servecommunity health, but in some cases seems Minister Greg Clark argues that Clause 167 of as an exemplar for how science, environmentalmore likely to hand over more power to land the Localism Bill requires that brownfield and sustainability and community initiatives candevelopers to influence councils. poor quality land always be considered before work together. other kinds of land for development, such asAccording to the new Localism Bill recently greenbelt or farmlands. According to Section You can keep up to date on the progress ofpassed in the House of Commons, UK government 106 of the NPPF, developers are already the ROBUST project by visiting its websitewill allow communities to approve development allowed to sway communities into accepting at www.robustdurham.org.uk.without requiring normal planning permissions. developments by offering to build somethingThis could mean that communities can get to for the council.work right away in regenerating and developingbrownfield land without national or even local

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOSThe UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Older people needing health and social care The pattern of extreme weather events is likely(CCRA) draws attention to the importance of depend on help from their family, friends to change throughout England over the nextplanning ahead for the effects of a changing and health and social care staff or volunteers 30 years due to climate change. Preparing forclimate in the UK over the coming decades. alongside more formal provisions. Also future events related to extreme weather, suchWhile reducing C02 emissions in order to essential is infrastructure such as roads, as floods and heatwaves, as well as continuingmitigate climate change is very important, so electricity and water supplies, and access to risks of coldwaves, is essential for humantoo is action to adapt to changes in climate that facilities such as hospitals, clinics, dispensaries adaptation to a changing climate. Modifyingare now inevitable. We expect to see changes in and community centres. The BIOPICCC project infrastructure responsible for the care of olderthe pattern of extreme weather events (such as involves researchers from Durham and Heriot- people (age 65+) is important because theyheatwaves and coldwaves) and related hazards Watt Universities, working with local authorities often need to use services and also this agesuch as flooding. Climate change research helps in England to inform planning for older group is projected to increase relatively rapidlyus to understand these changes and develop people’s care facilities and the infrastructure over the coming decades.appropriate measures for preparation and that underlies them. The project is part of aadaptation to extreme weather events. Health programme of linked studies funded by the UK Projections for demographic and climateand social care planners, for example, are Engineering and Physical Sciences Research change suggest that the effect of future trendsalready working to make health and social care Council to examine Adaptation and Resilience will vary across different parts of England. Themore resilient to climate change. Their task is to a Changing Climate (ARCC). project has mapped the expected distributionto ensure that key services for groups such as of older people across England by 2031 usingvulnerable older people and their carers are The project benefits from the special capacity population data from the Office for Nationalmaintained as well as possible during periods in IHRR to combine knowledge and research Statistics, to show where the oldest andof extreme weather. methods from different disciplines to show potentially most ‘vulnerable’ population will how local adaptation over the medium term grow fastest and be most concentrated. UsingTo help with this process the project Built can help to allay the impacts of environmental the latest available projections for trends inInfrastructure for Older People’s Care in change. Although it is focussed on England, temperature and flood hazard we have alsoConditions of Climate Change (BIOPICCC), is this research also has international implications mapped geographical patterns of ‘hazard’ forworking closely with the public, private and for assessing, communicating and mitigating heatwaves, coldwaves and floods. These mapsvoluntary sections in the UK. We are helping extreme weather events (e.g. floods and help us identify areas where forward planningto organise knowledge about the service needs heatwaves) caused by climate change is especially important to adapt and buildin local communities and identify services and around the world. resilience in services and infrastructure forsupporting infrastructures which are most likely to older people’s care.be disrupted due to extreme weather in the future.

FIG 1. Percentage increase in the number of especially if local authorities do not have plans and 25heatwave events per year between baseline resources in place to cope with them. Studies have(1961-1990) and 2030s reported excess mortality and increased health and Further Information social care service use among older people during(Data derived from the UKCP09 Weather Generator extended coldwaves. Oven, K., Curtis, S., Reaney, S.,(Version 2) under the medium emissions scenario). Riva, M., Stewart, M., Ohlemuller, FIG 3. The annual probability of flooding R., Dunn, C., Nodwell, S.,There is no fixed definition of a ‘heatwave’. For around the 2050s Dominelli, L.. Holden, R. (2012).this study we considered the sorts of conditions ‘Climate change and healththat tend to increase the risk of health problems (Source: The UK Government’s Foresight Flood and and social care: defining futureamong older people. We defined a heatwave event Coastal Defence Project, Environment Agency, 2004). hazard, vulnerability and risk foras three or more days in succession that are hotter infrastructure systems supportingthan usual, with maximum temperatures at a For flooding, we adopted the definition used older people’s health care inlevel that will occur only five percent of the time. in the Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence England.’ Applied Geography,Since the definition is relative to prevailing average Project (Environment Agency, 2004), the annual 33: 16-24.temperatures expected in the future, it theoretically probability of inundation. This definition therefore www.sciencedirect.com/science/makes some allowance for future adaption to heat includes relatively minor floods which may disrupt article/pii/S0143622811000956among the older population and modification of critical infrastructure. The findings suggest that http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.built infrastructure, which may mitigate, to some some areas are expected to experience an increase apgeog.2011.05.012extent, projected climate change effects on health. in flood hazard (both fluvial and coastal), inThe findings suggest that the greatest likelihood of particular, the South East, the East of England UK Climate Impacts Programmeheat waves is expected to be in South and South and the Yorkshire and Humber Region. Founded to help coordinateWest England, while the East, North West, Yorkshire scientific research into theand Humber are projected to experience an increase FIG 4. Projected proportion of older people aged impacts of climate change, UKCIPin heatwave events compared to conditions now. 85 years and over in local authority areas in 2031 is based at the Environmental Change Institute at the UniversityFIG 2. Percentage decrease in the number (Analysis based on 2006 sub-national population projections of Oxford. It helps organisationsof coldwave events per year between baseline by age group at local authority area level. Source: Office for and businesses adapt to the(1961-1990) and 2030s National Statistics, 2007). unavoidable impacts of climate change.(Data derived from the UKCP09 Weather Generator The research suggests that areas experiencing www.ukcip.org.uk(Version 2) under the medium emissions scenario). the most rapidly changing hazards often also have large and growing numbers of older people, Foresight Flood andWe defined a coldwave as an event where the especially in the oldest age groups (85 years and Coastal Defence Projectdaily maximum temperature is 0°C or below for over). These areas include parts of the South East Environment Agencythree or more consecutive days. Although these of England outside central London, and the East This government Foresightevents are projected to become less common in of England. Many of these are rural and coastal programme produced a report onthe future, they are still likely to cause disruption, areas outside major urban agglomerations. the challenging and long-term vision for the future of flood andFIG 1. FIG 2. coastal defence for the UK. It is being used to inform policy andFIG 3. Legend (probability) FIG 4. its delivery. www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/The BIOPICCC project illustrates the need for the kinds of interdisciplinary work that IHRR promotes; projects/published-projects/flood-geographers, health and social care experts, environmental scientists and engineers are all involved. In this and-coastal-defenceresearch we are also engaging with a range of partners outside the Universities, including Age UK, Defra,the Environment Agency, the Meteorological Office and the Health Protection Agency as well as a number of The BIOPICCC project isimportant partners with whom we are working in local authorities around the country. International experts in funded by the UK Government’sother countries are also advising the project. This underlines the significance for society as a whole of the agenda Engineering and Physicalconcerning how to adapt to climate change and the value of university research that connects these issues. Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) as part of a programme on Adaptation and Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARCC). www.durham.ac.uk/geography/ research/researchprojects/biopiccc www.ukcip-arcc.org.uk/ See BIOPICCC Research Briefing 1 for further information on the hazard and vulnerability mapping:

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOSSURVIVING THESTORM: REBUILDINGAFTER CYCLONE SIDRIN BANGLADESH A Saudi government sponsored house. The house in the background on the top right is owned by an elite, which is three times larger, but built at the same cost.MD NADIRUZZAMAN reports oncommunity housing struggles insouthern Bangladesh after theCyclone Sidr disasterTerror of the Sidr’s Night On 15 November, the weather was pretty night: winds roaring like a ferocious monster, normal like any other typical monsoon day and trees crashing down; broken branches,In mid-November 2007, the coastal there was no sign of treacherous weather a few pieces of wood and other debris flying incommunities around the Boleshwar River hundred miles down the coast. Even when the all directions. It seemed they hadin Bangladesh were devastated by a gigantic weather worsened in the evening and turned to underestimated the warning.storm surge. In Gabtola, located in southern thunderstorms, they saw it as a normal tropicalBangladesh, only four houses out of thousands storm similar to the ones they experience every They were puzzled. Some people made their waywithstood the storm. There was not a single year and stayed home. to the cyclone shelter and many came back homefamily who did not count a huge financial loss after being blocked by flying debris and uprootedin all three of my field sites. They were familiar Many of my respondents were in bed sleeping trees along the way. At Gabtola, those who reachedwith both cyclone and false cyclone alarms, or trying to sleep when the cyclone struck their the cyclone shelter in the first instance had tobut never imagined it could be of such high village sometime after 10pm. People who were head back elsewhere as the shelter was locked,magnitude. still awake described similar things from that with the only key located several miles away.

27When water started pouring into people’s homes ‘Right to housing’ in Bangladeshthey had no other choice but to seek safe shelter.They started running to the nearest big houses, Right to housing is one of the five basic For example, the Gabtola community havecyclone shelters and other places in search of human rights endorsed by the Constitution received housing from the government,safety. They were again proved wrong when a of Bangladesh. The home happens to be donated by Saudi Arabia. For a 10x15gigantic water-wall crashed down on Gabtola. an assured commodity right protected by square ft area and 9ft high house 41 tinNone of the big houses near the riverbank, within state law to every household. However, sheets and 8 concrete pillars were provided.about 100 metres, had survived despite being while distributing housing materials to the The government involved external vendorsinside the embankment. I had been to several affected community, this constitutional right to buy tin sheets and make concrete pillars.spots where many people had perished together seems to have been forgotten. At Gabtola, A total of 62,875 Taka (approximatelytrapped inside large houses that collapsed. there were several dozen families living in £630) was allocated to build a house,Inside a cemented single storied primary school small flimsy huts on the government-owned which includes a budget of 10,000 Taka26 people drowned when water surged over the embankment that had lost their lands (£100) for developing an earthen plinthembankment and eventually flowed above the due to natural causes or socioeconomic and installing a house on it. From thisschool’s rooftop. People who could make their problems. Despite their homes being construction cost, 6,500 Taka was givenway to cyclone shelters were apparently lucky. destroyed by Cyclone Sidr, they came under to the recipient of the house and the restThose that failed had spent the whole night the housing scheme only when they were went to labour hired from outside, thoughfloating on the water by holding onto able to purchase a small piece of land labour force was available locally. Moreover,tree branches. inside the embankment at a much higher a substantial amount of my respondents, rate than the usual market price from the particularly those who are marginalised orThe following morning people were surrounded land owners who were usually elites. These have no connections, gave their contacts aby tens of thousands of dead bodies of their homestead lands were purchased using minimum of 1,000 Taka as bribe to keeprelatives and livestock along with the wreckage government aid money originally intended their name on the recipient list. I was notof their homes, trees and boats. They had no for income generating activities. None of quite convinced that bribing took placeclothes other than the ones they had on, no food the people in Sonatola Model Village have as every household received at least oneand no money. Cyclone Sidr had stripped them of received any housing benefit nor have 24 house, but I did encounter several incidentseverything. Salt water had contaminated drinking households at Mazer Char because they live of bribing during my field research.water ponds. Crops and seeds, fishing boats on disputed lands owned by government. Communities expressed frustration overand nets were either destroyed or washed away. In both cases housing was not granted in the government’s housing scheme thatThe cyclone indiscriminately ruined every single accordance with their constitutional rights. led to the abandonment of many houses.family at all of my field sites. The SouthkhaliUnion[1] has suffered from a 709 human death Aid money, intended to rebuild devastated CONTINUED >toll, which is one-fifth of the official total for the communities has not only slipped into localwhole country. Gabtola, one of ten villages of elites’ pockets, but has transferred outsideSouthkhali Union, alone lost 381 people from of local economies.the disaster. There were no major humancasualties in Sonatola Model Village, anotherone of my field sites in the same Union, farinland and quite well protected by theSundarbans from the South and the West.Although close to Gabtola, located in the middleof Boleshwar River, Mazer Char had only fourhuman deaths. In fact, three adjacent villagesof the Southkhali Union, all in the same linealong the Boleshwar River – North Southkhali,Gabtola and Bogi – accounted for more than90 percent of the total human loss in the wholeUnion. Human losses were mainly close to theriverbank. Other than significant differencesin human death toll, all three sites experiencedloss of their homes, livestock, assets and so on.When I went to visit my field sites two years afterthe Cyclone Sidr disaster, Sidr’s terror was stillvisible to everyone who survived that nightmare.My research investigates how decisionsabout relief in Bangladesh are made duringthe aftermath of Cyclone Sidr. It reflects onimplemented housing schemes, particularlyin Gabtola, where I took the housing schemeas a case study because it is the most visibleaid product provided by government andNGOs which has not only changed the landscape,but is also substantially important for explainingdifferent aspects of decisions governing relief aid.

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOSBuilt to be abandoned A substantial amount of the housing budget The bureaucratic nature of the ‘relief’ went to vendors and builders and space mechanism in place, lack of accountabilityTo give an idea of how this government was an issue as one house allocated to a and vigilance and eliminating the localhousing project could help the communities single household (a household comprises community from hands-on participation hasinvolved and be cost-effective, I explored the all members of a family whose meals are caused widespread dissatisfaction amongstsame quality housing schemes implemented cooked together) was not suitable for an the beneficiaries and deprived them fromby other agencies. Anecdotal estimates from entire family. People with little to no money receiving a house worth living in.local builders, tin sheet traders, elected or voice in government complained aboutlocal representatives and communities squeezing into a small house while relatively Not only do these houses have little valuesuggest a maximum of 35,000 Taka (267 affluent families’ unmarried sons were for communities, but they also come withGBP) to build a house that is part of the declared as separate households and received potential health risks. For example, tingovernment’s housing scheme. This is a very more houses. Finally, design of these houses sheets keep the inside hot in the summerrough valuation however and there is a fair was severely criticised for being culturally and cold in the winter. Combining this withchance of it being undervalued by the local insensitive and having no foresight in terms poor ventilation, they are like small tincommunity as a whole. There is widespread of liveability. The problems in relation to tombs that can increase heat-induced formsfrustration over this housing scheme for cultural sensitivity and liveability were of disease. These extreme hot and coldseveral reasons. Gabtola people were provided seemingly shared by all the recipients of conditions mainly expose toddlers to sicknesswith houses in the end. In fact, other NGOs the government housing scheme. and disease, such as pneumonia, measleswho provide housing, like Muslim Aid, CARE, and smallpox. However, people who canDSK, BRAC, Friendship, MCC and others, The government houses were normally built afford it have their homes rebuilt with woodhad Gabtola as their top priority, but they very poorly and were inadequate for people’s or bamboo fenced walls all around and highwere diverted to other villages, following a needs. Therefore many recipients that had tin-roofs with a soft ceiling of bamboo fence,promise of a foreign diplomat of building rebuilt their homes abandoned them. For plywood, hardboard and so on underneath.a model village in the most affected area. them, budgeted construction costs for Some reused relief tin sheets and pillars, government relief houses (10,000 Taka others left them abandoned or used themThere were rumours of promises for each) was simply a waste of money. as sheds for their livestock. Only thosedelivering much better quality houses, There is a large discrepancy between who really cannot afford to rebuild theirparticularly more spacious ones with brick the government and beneficiaries. homes are squeezing into the housesand cement walls, but the houses received government provided.were far below expectations.Abandoned governmentsponsored house in Bangladesh.

Inset: Abandoned house used as 29 a cow shed. Below: Abandoned government sponsored houses ‘Build back better’? in Bangladesh. The government of Bangladesh has beenDushtha Shasthya Kendra This approach had two impacts: it caused popularising the slogan ‘build back better’, them to build with care while adding up their since committing themselves to rebuildingDSK (Dushtha Shasthya Kendra) is a national own tin sheets and other materials to extend Sidr’s ruins. In the case of their housingNGO that followed a rather different approach their homes; and they were earning income for scheme, the slogan implies building strongerin helping people rebuild their homes from building their houses, which kept money inside houses that can withstand future cyclones.ruin that was more inclusive of their needs. the community. They also completed a house If the government was right, it could bringThey had a budget of 27,000 Taka per house, they were a part of from the very beginning prosperity to the communities of Sidr. But, ifwhich was less than half of the government’s and do not have many complaints other than it fails, it could result in a massive loss of life.budget. They informed the beneficiaries of the envying people who were aided by other NGOs In a stormy situation every single tin sheet couldbudget deficit and asked their advice on how who provided cement floors, concrete walls become a spinning blade. Unfortunately, thisto accomplish the project with this financial and tin roofs. When I explained DSK’s housing grave scenario is likely because Cyclone Ailaconstraint. They also considered the issue of scheme to the UNO, the chief government – which had one-third the strength of Sidr inextreme hot and cold conditions through the executive who oversees any governmental and terms of wind velocity and surge height – struckuse of excessive tin sheets and instead used non-governmental development activities within a few months after the housing programme wasbamboo-fenced walls using tin only for the top Upazila’s jurisdiction, he said, “Government accomplished; it partially damaged every singleroofs. They also maintained house plinth height has certain rules to follow and does not have house from this scheme. Thereafter, everybodyabove the last flood mark and clamped tin as much administrative and management under this scheme received a small grant forsheets with deeply anchored concrete pillars, flexibility as NGOs do”. In short, though repairing their homes. Since these housesto withstand future cyclones. For assuring every household at Gabtola had an official became vulnerable to a weak cyclone like Aila,transparency, the DSK took their beneficiaries entitlement of 62,875 Taka, a substantial can they withstand a super cyclone like Sidr?to the market where they bought tin sheets at amount of their entitlement was compromised If not, are we inviting potentially new risks toa bargain price. In the same way, they bought by sharing with vendors and builders and many the community?iron rods, cement and other building materials of them eventually abandoned the governmentto make concrete pillars. They mobilised houses only because of bureaucratic red tape. During the last couple of decades, naturalfamily members, relatives, neighbours and hazard events have increased dramatically andother beneficiaries to help each other build About 4,000 houses were distributed under in 2004-05 climate-induced casualties havetheir homes. this scheme, which really makes the financial increased by 18 percent in the world as a whole. figure of their compromise a significant sum. Statistical, satellite and observational data Thus, entitlement is not only backed by law, suggest that both the intensity and magnitude but also breached by it. But, does it pose any of storms will increase in the future. Professor additional threat to future climatic disruptions? Bimal Kanti Paul, from the University of East Anglia, conducted a cyclone-induced injury survey on 132 people in 12 Sidr affected villages. Paul later reported in an article in 2010 in the journal Natural Hazards[2] that 55 percent of injuries were from falling trees and 45 percent from flying debris. He also adds that 61.54 percent of structural collapse was due to trees crashing into houses, which caused more indoor injuries during the Sidr event than outside. Taking into account these findings, in the context of the government’s ‘build back better’ campaign these entirely tin-built homes will likely worsen the situation if and when a cyclone occurs again. If those houses could even survive through a strong velocity wind and high water surge, would they be able to avoid collapsing from damage caused by fallen trees? These findings need to be accounted for in government’s housing plan for the communities of Sidr.1. Union, often expressed as UP, is the Union 2. Human injuries caused by Bangladesh’s cyclone Md Nadiruzzaman is a PhD candidate in the Dept Parishad which is the lowest tier of the Local sidr: an empirical study. Natural Hazards, Volume of Geography and the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Government structure in Bangladesh. 54, Number 2, 483-495, DOI: 10.1007/s11069- Resilience and is funded by the Christopher Moyes 009-9480-2 Memorial Foundation. He is supervised by Prof Peter Atkins and Prof Phil Macnaghten.

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS Defining resilience is far from straightforward as it is ever changingPUTTING A ‘FACE’ and evolving says DAVID DIVINEON RESILIENCEHow is resilience defined by its pioneers its economic resilience and social resilience and efficient manner, including through theand popularisers in the social sciences? describes abilities within human societies to preservation and restoration of its essentialAnd what does it mean for how we use the adjust to change, particularly ‘to absorb basic structures and functions”[3].term universally to describe the world around us? recurrent disturbances such as hurricanesSocial geographer Bernard Manyena states and floods so as to retain essential structures, My own perspective on resilience includesthat resilience has its roots in the Latin word processes and feedbacks’ [1]. the two prerequisites outlined by Luthar –‘resilio’, meaning ‘to jump back’. He also adversity and response. The new state of beingreminds us that there is dispute as to where Psychologist Suniya Luthar, who studies consisting of the ingredients of the shock to thethe term was originally used: ecology, physics, vulnerability and resilience in young people, former system – the former system itself andpsychology or psychiatry? He does however in a valiant attempt to defend the construct the response of the former system to the shockaver that most of the literature is of the view of resilience in the face of mounting concern – is where I wish to focus in terms of tryingthat the study of resilience evolved from regarding its definitional opaqueness in to answer some of the outstanding questionsthe discipline of psychology and psychiatry some studies, sets out to offer clarity but relating to resilience.in the 1940s and it is mainly accredited to regrettably does not help matters bypsychologists Norman Garmezy, Emmy Werner defining resilience thus: The manifesting of resilience howeverand Ruth Smith. The term arose from studies identified is seen as something positivelyinvolving the exploration of the origins and Resilience is operationally defined in this responding to the shock, although the naturedevelopment of physical and mental disorders volume, as a dynamic developmental process of that ‘positively responding,’ is as yetin ‘at risk’ children of parents with identified reflecting evidence of positive adaptation unclear. What we appear to know is thatphysical and mental disorders, a history of despite significant life adversity. Resilience the nature of that resilience is episodic,inter-parental conflict, poverty, perinatal is not believed to be a child attribute operating developmental, constantly changing dependingproblems or a combination thereof. in isolation; rather it is viewed as a phenomena, upon circumstances and questionably a hypothetical construct, that must be inferred predictable. Whether one can prepare for aHowever, ‘what it is’ is still a subject from an individual manifesting competent pattern of resiliency for a further shock to theof considerable debate. What are its functioning despite significant adversity[2]. system, incorporating the lessons of the past,determinants? How can it be measured, is subject to debate although the work amongstmaintained, and improved? How can it be One is left even more perplexed about researchers suggests that this is possible.predicted? Can we identify the ingredients resilience, with questions such as what The question of whether resiliency pathwaysof it and help in interventions to prepare determines the outcomes of resilience, – stepping stones – can be worked out intopeople to manifest resilience in given trying who defines competent functioning; would the clouds of an unknown future is stillcircumstances? we recognise resilience if we tripped over it? subject to debate. How can we make the term useful? How canPsychologist Ann S. Masten, who studies risk we make the characteristics of it observable Perhaps we simply need to accept thatand resilience in childhood development, and amenable to measurement and being according to sociologist and social workerdescribes resilience as “a class of phenomena compared from study to study? Lena Dominelli:characterised by good outcomes in spite ofserious threats to adaptation or development”. Luthar states however that two factors appear Resilience is a contested, eclectic, andIt begs the question of what constitutes to be evident when the construct of resilience perhaps elastic term that has moved from its‘serious threats’ and ‘good outcomes’. The is used: adversity – a shock to the system, accepted meaning in the physical sciencesUK’s Cabinet Office, in its Draft Strategic whether human or natural – and a response as the capacity of materials to respond toNational Framework on Community Resilience of the system to that shock, in order to deal stress, to the social sciences and the arts andconsultation document defines resilience as with it. humanities where this definition is often used“The capacity of an individual, community uncritically to manage crises. In the process,or system to adapt in order to sustain an The responses can vary, there is no it has re-emerged as an active concept as theacceptable level of function, structure, and predictability, the system can ‘adapt to’, capacity of systems, whether natural, humanidentity”. Community resilience is defined succumb to, be strengthened or transformed or hybrid, to sustain themselves in the facein the same document as “Communities and by a shock, but one thing is certain and that of endogenous and exogenous shocks to anindividuals harnessing local resources and is regardless of the shock to the system, and existing state.expertise to help themselves in an emergency, regardless of the nature of the response ofin a way that complements the response of the the system, the system itself has changed The nature of that sustainability, theemergency services”. Sociologist Betty Hearne inexorably. It is new, not the same as before, ingredients of it, the origins of it, how it isMorrow in ‘Community Resilience: A Social a qualitatively different entity is now in maintained and developed, whether it can beJustice Perspective’, develops this notion of existence, made so by the effects of the replicated, would we recognise it if we cameresilience further: shock and the response of the system, across it, is all still unclear. melding into something qualitatively different.Physical resilience refers to the strength to David Divine is a PhD candidate in the School ofdeal with an impact (such as the ability of a There is a formal definition of resilience fromhouse to withstand high winds or the physical the United Nations International Strategy Applied Social Sciences. His research focuses on thehealth of an individual to survive a disaster). For Disaster Reduction (ISDR) which is experience of living in an orphanage and individualThe robustness and diversity of the economy being widely used at present: “The ability of resilience. He is supervised by Prof Lena Dominelli.to survive and recover from a disaster defines a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely

311. Morrow, B.H. ‘Community Resilience: 2. Luthar, S.S. Resilience and Vulnerability, 3. United Nations International Strategy 4. Dominelli, L. 2011 (private A Social Justice Perspective, 2008, Adaptation in the Context of Childhood For Disaster Reduction (ISDR) communication with the author) Community and Regional Initiative Adversities. Cambridge University press, (CARRI) Research Report 4’ 2008

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS Dave Petley and Brett Cherry review the harrowing landslide event that took place in 1966 in South Wales – the Aberfan Disaster.

33The story of the Aberfan Disaster is seared By 1969, seven tips had been constructed. In the years leading up to the landslide,into the memories of a generation of people Tip 7, from which the disastrous landslide water from the hillside had been a perennialin South Wales, and it remains a tragedy of developed, was started in 1958, and reached problem for the people of Aberfan. Startinghuge proportions. Today, 45 years after the a height of about 40 metres. It contained in 1949, and possibly earlier, a series ofdisaster, there is much to learn from the events about 230,000 m3 of waste. The material was floods had affected the upper part of theleading up to, and that occurred on, the day. transported to the tip on trams that were hauled town, causing damage and disruption, andPrior to the disaster, Aberfan was just another up an incline by a series of motors, before the leaving a legacy of a ‘slimy black deposit’ insmall, Welsh coal mining village, located in waste was dumped on the tip by a crane. its wake, which was almost certainly minethe valleys of South Wales. Essentially the waste. The people of the town repeatedlyreason for the existence of the village lay in The Commission of Enquiry noted that when wrote to the council and the National Coalcoal mining – it was founded shortly after the coal waste tips are concerned, “water is Board asking for this problem to be addressedfirst excavations for the Merthyr Vale Colliery undoubtedly the root cause of most failures”. to no effect; it is ironic that in the aftermathin 1869. The village was formed primarily of This was not a new finding – indeed it had of this disaster this flooding issue was solveda close-knit community of miners and their been known for at least 40 years – and 45 through the construction of a simple culvert.families, but was sufficiently large to be years on it is still the case.able to sustain both a primary and The disaster itself occurred on 21st Octobersecondary school. This area of South Wales has a wet climate 1966 at about 9:15am. The day was calm (average rainfall is about 1500 mm per year), and sunny at 7:30am, when the team ofPictures from the post-war period show that and the hillsides are marked by lines of springs. men responsible for the dumping of minethe hills above the village were dominated The presence of these springs on the hillslopes waste on Tip 7 arrived for work. At the topby a series of enormous spoil heaps. Dealing above was noted on Ordnance Survey maps of Tip 7 they found that it had subsided bywith the waste is a perennial problem in coal dating from the late 19th Century. Remarkably, about three metres. The team had to send amining, which often generates large volumes some older tips at Aberfan built on springs or messenger down to report this information toof dirty material that has little economic use. watercourses had previously failed – for example, the mine managers as the telephone was outIn South Wales, as elsewhere, it was common Tip 4 slipped in 1944, and Tip 5 had a large of action as a result of the repeated theft ofto pile the waste close to the mine workings bulge that was considered to be an indication the cable. A decision was taken by the mine– in the case of Aberfan on the slopes above that it was unstable. Furthermore, just down managers to cease tipping at that location,the village. the valley of Abercynon, a landslide developed and an additional team was sent up to move in a tip in 1939 that buried a road to a depth of the tipping infrastructure back from theMining at Aberfan started in 1869; initially nearly seven metres. And so, the arguments that area of active movement. By the time theythe waste was dumped in tips on the slope the events at Aberfan were unprecedented, or reached the top, the subsidence had furtheradjacent to the mine. However, as the volume could not have been anticipated, cannot developed, with another three metres ofof material increased, new tips were built on be sustained. movement being reported.the slopes higher up the hillside. The final, catastrophic collapse developed apparently spontaneously as an initially rotational movement that rapidly transitioned into a flow. About 107,000m3 of material flowed down the hillside and into the village. Descriptions of the event from eye-witnesses bring home the suddenness and catastrophic nature of the landslide. Most witnesses report a noise that sounded like a jet plane passing low over the village; the witnesses also describe a wave of debris, higher than a house, moving fast and demolishing houses ‘like a pile of dominoes’. The landslide behaved like a liquid, but with twice the density of water, sufficient to demolish everything in its path. Some victims who escaped the main flow were struck and injured by flying debris. By the time the landslide stopped, it had demolished Pantglas Junior School and 18 houses, and had seriously damaged the secondary school and many more houses. A total of 144 people were killed, including 116 children. CONTINUED >

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS

35Of these, 109 children mostly aged between The aftermath of the disaster The tribunal named nine members of theseven and ten years old, were killed in the board directly responsible for the event, andprimary school, together with five of their Immediately following the disaster a tribunal specified in some detail how their actions led toteachers. It is a mercy that lessons in the was appointed to investigate the events leading the catastrophe. However, perhaps surprisinglysecondary school did not start until 9:30, up to the disaster at Aberfan. The tribunal when seen from the perspective of modernmeaning that many of those children were still found that the National Coal Board was entirely times, no-one was prosecuted for causing thewalking towards the building at the time of responsible for failing to act to prevent the deaths of the 144 people and for the physicalthe landslide. The eye-witnesses report that disaster[1]. Throughout most of the proceedings and social ruin of the community of Aberfan.when the landslide stopped there was complete of the tribunal, the National Coal Board soughtsilence: for example a local hairdresser who to deny responsibility, but by the end of the According to a 2000 report funded by thewitnessed the landslide reported that “In that proceedings the report notes that “however ESRC on the government response to thesilence you couldn’t hear a bird or a child”. belatedly, it was conceded by the National disaster, senior officials of the NCB were Coal Board that the Aberfan Disaster stemmed not prosecuted because the UK governmentImmediately people flooded into the area from from their failure to initiate any policy with in the late 1960s and early 1970s “neededfar and wide to try to save the victims buried respect to the siting, control, inspection and their help in the ‘high politics’ of runningby the landslide, including miners from the management of tips”. down the coal industry without provokingcolliery. News footage from that day shows a national strike”.numerous pit workers in their colliery helmets The NCB was found to be at fault by thedigging at the site of the school. However, tribunal for placing a tip on a site that had not Since the NCB was treated as if it wereconditions were exceptionally difficult – the been properly investigated. Evidence brought a government department, making themlandslide mass had drained almost as soon as forward by residents of Aberfan revealed that pay the environmental or direct costs of themovement ceased, leaving a dense, cohesive the spring underneath Tip 7 was far from disaster was considered to be unwise as itmass that was difficult to excavate. ‘unknown’ as originally claimed by the Chair of would have increased the governmental deficit, the NCB, Lord Alfred Robens. The worker who which would then have to be recovered fromAt the school site there was little room reported the first sinking of Tip 7 on the day of general taxation.to manoeuvre. The last living victim was the disaster told the judge of the tribunal, Lordextracted before 11am, less than two hours Justice Edmund Davies, that “no one walking Furthermore, the report suggests that theafter the landslide. on the mountain before Tip 7 was started could interests of the people of Aberfan simply did fail to see the stream and the spring”, nor not have any sway over policymakers and did they require any surveying or engineering according to laws in place at the time relating expertise to see that the site was unsuitable to corporate negligence, no regulatory offence for the tip in the first place. was committed during the Aberfan Disaster because no miners were killed. CONTINUED >

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOSPsychosocial Effects of Disaster: Birth Rate in The Legacy of Aberfan Since the accident, coal spoil tips have beenAberfan. British Medical Journal, 1975 treated as engineering structures requiring The village of Aberfan continues to be proper design and maintenance. A DerelictAfter the disaster, a fund was created that profoundly affected by the disaster in Land Unit was set up in Cardiff not longattracted donations of £1,750,000 (equivalent 1966, despite the change in population after the disaster to restore brownfield land,to about £30 million today), with money being that accompanied the closure of the colliery. including former sites of collieries and landreceived in the form of more than 90,000 According to a psychiatric study that undertook used by the coal industry. New ways to disposecontributions from over 40 countries. This a follow-up of the disaster in 2003, many of colliery spoils have also been developed.fund distributed the money in a number people who lived through the Aberfan Disasterof ways, including direct payments to the continue to suffer regular bouts of post- Lessons learntbereaved, the construction of a memorial, traumatic stress. However, the majority ofrepairs to houses, respite breaks for villagers survivors refused to participate in the study. The dreadful calamity of the Aberfan landslideand the construction of a community centre. In common with observations of large-scale disaster remains perhaps the most poignantHowever, the fund itself attracted considerable disasters in other locations, soon after the and memorable disaster in the UK since thecontroversy. landslide the birth rate of Aberfan and Merthyr Second World War. The combination of a failureFirst, when the fund was created it did not Vale increased dramatically, such that by 1972 of responsibility by the relevant authorities, theinclude any representatives from Aberfan it has been calculated that more additional dreadful events in the moment of the landslide,itself; subsequently, after protests from the children had been born than had been lost in the heroic but mostly futile rescue attempts,villagers, five places through democratic the tragedy. This is a phenomenon known as and the appalling behaviour of some partieselection were created. biosocial regeneration, which is a subconscious in the aftermath of the disaster created anRemarkably, no other members of the disaster response primarily by couples who had not lost extraordinary mix from which there is muchfund were elected democratically. Second, a child in the disaster. to learn. There are some positive legaciesin the aftermath of the disaster the NCB and of the disaster, most notably the dramaticthe Treasury refused to accept full liability, The Aberfan Disaster also led to detailed improvements to the management of mineand thus to fund the removal of tips that studies of the behaviour of mine waste, and in wastes, but there is still much to do to ensurestill loomed above the village. Lord Robens particular of its potential to undergo apparently that these lessons are learnt internationally.claimed that it was too expensive to remove spontaneous catastrophic collapse. Researchthe tips, with an estimated cost of £3 million into this mechanism continues today, but sadly Since the Aberfan Disaster, there have beenpounds. In response, the community of mine waste failures remain common, especially a variety of studies on its aftermath from theAberfan formed a Tip Removal Committee to in less developed countries. For example, in mental health of those who lived through theactively seek out contractors for estimates September 2008 a mine waste landslide struck disaster to the regulatory failure of government,to remove the tips. Eventually the tips were the village of Taoshi in the Shaanxi province of which was the focus of a report funded byremoved by the NCB, but using £150,000 that China, killing at least 128 villagers. Of course, the ESRC released in 2000[2]. This reportLord Robens appropriated from the disaster in the UK the disaster led to major changes concluded that since the disaster took place,fund. Understandably, this caused long-term to the ways in which mine wastes are managed, UK policy of ‘making the polluter pay’ hasresentment in the community. In 1997, this and there has been no repeat of this dreadful a stronger foothold in government, and lawssum (but without interest) was repaid to the accident. relating to corporate negligence are morefund by the UK government. attentive to victims than they were in the past. The findings show that preparation for disaster has improved since 1966 not due to loss of life, economic damage or more obvious impacts, but largely due to the fact that Emergency Planning had to find a new role after its loss of legitimacy in the Civil Defence programme and the end of the Cold War. The ESRC report concluded that political processes in place during and after disasters provide the context for government response. Furthermore, governments must learn to never underestimate the length and depth of trauma suffered by survivors of disasters like the mine waste landslide at Aberfan. Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) was found to be high in victims of the Aberfan Disaster, even decades after it took place[3]. It is of utmost importance that the knowledge gained from experiencing and responding to past disasters feeds into current and future regulations to prevent failings of policy in addressing the needs of vulnerable populations to large-scale physical hazards.1. Report of the Tribunal Appointed to Inquire into 2. Mclean, Iain. Corporatism and regulatory failure: 3. Johnes M. ‘Aberfan and the Management of Trauma’. the Disaster at Aberfan on October 21st, 1966. government response to the Aberfan disaster. ESRC. Disasters, 24(1):1-17 H.M.S.O. 1967 Available online: http://www.esrc.ac.uk/my-esrc/ grants/R000222677/

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS 37 Campaigns for funding science in the UK Focusing on the development of research The findings of the Strategic Science project are becoming increasingly innovative programmes in nanotechnology and synthetic suggest the challenge facing social scientists and strategic in their approach, says biology, the results of the project reveal that in an increasingly strategic policy context MATTHEW KEARNES while research councils and other funding and highlight the importance of a thorough agencies are increasingly taking an active investigation of how new research programmesIn recent years the scientific establishment role in shaping new research programmes – and questions are defined. A number ofhas been through something of a theological by delineating key research terms, building social scientists are making important stepsmoment. With the combined effects of agendas and working to establish a core in this direction – developing new modescontinuing public disquiet about the trajectory research community in emerging fields – a set of engagement and collaboration with theof technological change and a policy context of underlying policy narratives about the power natural and physical scientists. For example,that has increasingly emphasised strategic of science to produce social progress continues in the area of synthetic biology, an ESRC-investments in research, scientists and to shape institutional practice. funded network of social scientists (www.scientific organisations have begun, perhaps genomicsnetwork.ac.uk/) are working to build alike never before, to publicly defend the The results of this research suggest that this ‘post-ethical, legal, and social issues’ approachbenefits of fundamental research and ‘definitional work’, though often couched in to the life sciences that explores the ways that‘basic science’. technical terms, typically involves questions of scientific fields are constituted and sustained. fundamental societal significance. For example, This work will be an important step inIn recent months these efforts have crystallised the emerging field of synthetic biology is reimagining the roles that social scientists mayin a series of high-profile and effective increasingly defined as the rational design of play in critical collaboration with their naturalcampaigns to promote the vitality of science ‘biologically-based parts’, ‘novel devices and and physical science colleagues.to the future economic prosperity of the UK. systems’ and the redesign of ‘existing naturalResponding to similar concerns, UK research- biological systems’. This definition shows the Dr Matthew Kearnes is based at the University offunding bodies have launched a series of desire to make the ‘engineering of biology New South Wales, Australia. His research at IHRRstrategic and cross-disciplinary research easier and more predictable’, and is tied to a focused on public perception of emerging scienceprogrammes. Covering areas of research as range of expected applications in areas such and technologies including nanotechnology anddiverse as environmental change, energy as biofuels and pharmaceuticals. In turn, this synthetic biology along with science and governance.and lifelong health, these initiatives definitional work has the effect of tying theencapsulate a new argument about the value field to a largely unquestioned future. Self-replicating synthetic bacteriaof research in the UK; that interdisciplinary (J. Craig Venter Institute).and collaborative research can, throughcareful programme design, be brought tobear on the ‘grand challenges’ of the day.But these initiatives represent a challengefor social scientists and the broaderrelationship between science and society.They focus attention on the ways in whichthese grand societal challenges are definedand framed and the kinds of collaborativeroles that social scientists are increasinglytaking in interdisciplinary research teams.Will this strategic approach, that seeksto encourage research on cross-cuttingchallenges, be framed solely in technicalterms, as requiring scientific rather thansocial innovations? Will this approachrepresent an opportunity to open up innovationprocesses to a wider array of disciplinaryperspectives and diverse viewpoints?Against this backdrop, the results of a recentlycompleted ESRC-funded project entitled:‘Strategic Science: Research Intermediariesand the Governance of Innovation’, show thegravity of this challenge.

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOSAlex A large part of Alex’s research is devoted (which are often hazards in themselves) past, present and future climateDensmore to understanding how earthquakes that pull mountains back down again. conditions. This research investigatesSarah affect the landscape, creating a range This requires: looking at the landscape to how groundwater used for irrigation in theCurtis of secondary hazards which lie at the find evidence of past earthquakes, finding region is dependent upon local geology,Katie core of the IHRR programme ‘When the out where and how active the faults are, such as the presence or absence ofOven Shaking Stops’. His research also has and determining when the most recent buried river channels. Predicted changesFolarin to do with the way mountain ranges are earthquakes took place. While searching in the Indian monsoon over the next 50-Akinbami built and destroyed – that is, with the for signs of earthquakes that occurred 100 years influenced by climate changeSim interactions between earthquakes and in the past, Alex is also researching the could have serious, but largely unknownReaney active tectonic processes that create high environmental impacts of groundwater effects on this critical resource. topography and the erosional processes extraction in northwestern India under Much of her research fits well with the As the director of Frontier Knowledge Many of the projects fostered through interdisciplinary model that IHRR is aiming programme at IHRR, Sarah is generally IHRR bring together experts in the to encourage. For example, environmental interested in how different projects led by humanities, social and physical sciences. impacts, including climate change, play IHRR researchers break with convention This produces novel ways to think about a large role in human health and can also in order to think in new ways about the ‘whole systems’ that are important for affect the operation of health and social care hazard, risk and resilience. IHRR aims to hazard and risk and for vulnerability and services that we need to use to maintain our bring together researchers from different resilience. Sarah’s own research focuses health. This is the focus of one of IHRR’s disciplines to find original ways to study on the links between human health and core research projects, Built Infrastructure many of the complex problems the world the social and physical environment. It for Old People’s Care in Conditions of faces today because no single discipline shows how and why places are important Climate Change (BIOPICCC). Sarah is provides sufficient expertise to tackle for our health as well as our individual one of two principal investigators leading issues of hazard, risk and resilience in characteristics and the medical care BIOPICCC. a comprehensive way. we use. supporting older people’s health and Katie is a geographer working at the Katie’s findings led her to re-evaluate social care delivery in the UK. She has interface of physical and social science, the roles of both local and outside also continued her work in Nepal as with an interest in disaster risk reduction scientific knowledge in landslide risk part of a NERC/ESRC-funded scoping in the context of geophysical and reduction. Since completing her PhD study: ‘Increasing Rural Resilience hydrometeorological hazards. Her doctoral in 2009, Katie has been working as in Seismically Active Areas’. Working research investigated the vulnerability a Post-Doctoral Research Associate with local partners, the study sought to and resilience of rural communities to on the multidisciplinary BIOPICCC develop a conceptual and methodological landslides and debris flows in the Nepal (Built Infrastructure for Older People’s approach for combining local, practitioner Himalaya. The study examined local Care in Conditions of Climate Change) and scientific knowledge for effective perceptions and understandings of project funded by the EPSRC. The risk reduction in the context of seismic- mass movement hazards and the study investigates the impact of extreme related hazards. factors giving rise to the occupation weather events (heatwaves, coldwaves of landslide-prone areas. and floods) on the built infrastructure Such factors include excessively loose monetary policies in the Folarin is a legal scholar on Work financial crises. Folarin’s research run-up to the financial crisis, poor Package 2 (WP2) of the Tipping interests lie in financial services corporate governance within banks Points project: ‘Financial Crisis in the regulation, banking law, company law and other financial institutions, and Banking Sector: Past and Present’. and regulatory theory. His research for the failure of regulators to supervise WP2 is multidisciplinary and involves Tipping Points involves studying how the financial industry and maintain research on law, finance and history. and why banking and other financial the overall stability of the financial It compares current and historical crises occur in the UK and other system. This research offers the events through the lenses of finance parts of the world, with a particular potential to significantly improve our and governance history. Identifying the focus on the global financial crisis understanding of the global financial similarities and differences between of 2007-2009. This work is carried system and the critical transitions past and present financial crises out primarily through investigation, that can occur within it. fosters a deeper understanding of the discussion and analysis of several financial system and helps identify factors which contributed to and ‘risk-based’ approaches. The model Sim tipping points that contribute to exacerbated the global financial crisis. has developed simulates the movement of water through the combined hillslope The key question Sim is trying to floods are not the only type of hazard and river channel system. It is currently answer in his research at IHRR is ‘how produced by catchments, low flows and being used to investigate the projected do catchments transform rainfall into droughts are equally important. Also, impacts of climate change on catchment hazards?’ A catchment is an area of land the nutrients and pollutants carried behaviour, the hydrological connectivity that collects all the water (e.g. rain, by the water affect the ecology and its dynamics of small catchments and the melting snow or ice) that converges into usage. Sim is researching these issues impacts of rural land management on a single point and joins another water using a combination of both field-based the generation of flooding and low body such as a river, lake or sea. Rainfall measurements and environmental flow events. occurs across large areas and this water simulation modelling. He does two moves through a range of pathways and types of modelling: (1) fully distributed, a series of stores to potentially produce a physically-based, catchment hydrological hazard, such as a flood event. However, models and (2) reduced complexity,

Introduction The Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience (IHRR) is harnessing the capacInitsytiotuf treeosefaHrcahzearrsdf,rom acrIonsssDtiutruhatme of H University to makeRiask daInnsitfidftueterReoefnHscailzeiaerdnt, oRcieskhaondwResiwlieSencecliiveenwciethSite, eirnemnseeoarvgracitnhivgein,hiantzhtaeerrddUsisKcainpdalinnrdaSwDDiscrwuukirrywethhsnh.aad.cammurerpoI,hSUHDapuinmtHreigR.v1,oaehcSra3R.soouLicutkuEyth/hi,ithesUrRrsKotaahtdoe,nhewarovzerawlrdcdw.eanwWnt.rdeedruafiorsrker.ac.u championing key research programmes in hazards,Introduction vulnerability and resilience. The Institute operates through a growing array of research projects and externally-fundedThe Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience Our research aims to ifmeplrloovewhsuhmiapnsr.esIptonissesinvolved in policy engagement in risk and(IHRR) is harnessing the capacity of researchers etoarbthotqhuaakgees-o, lldanhdaszlaidrdehssasaunzcdahfrlaodsodvosldcaasenwboeealsl,taess across much of the globe, strategyfrom across Durham University to make a the new and uncertaindreisvkseolfocplimmaetencthawngiet,h industry and wider stakeholders and alsodifference to how we live with emerging hazardsand risks. IHRR is a nerve centre for innovative, surveillance, terror, barnekisnegaarncdhemceorgninsgultancy. Our research aims to improve humanurenscpeirWonerestneetaraasdrreeiicsnhscchiipnatlrmoitnihpaseibrkoyUnosaiKnptgphoarnkofdeaayctghhcrereelossi-uemtoagorhlcahodhuatztpeahrtrohdagecrzaawhnamodarrmlrnddies.gsskeins,ucshurndteavaecvtsehueinrlvoelolplooaoifnglngchiecaawsz.eonaIr,rtlodda,.etlrsTeisosh,rkefroaeIocnnaudrssr,tevittsuuhblptneqaaerarutnaiimcbakuislkiliatnteyrolgsyidn,oetnvlaheaetlnhonepdd slides and floods as well as the new and emerging technologies. It also focusesparthiaczuarldas,rvluylnoernabitlhityeanndarteusilrieencoe.f ThheaIznsatirtudte, riskradaicnadl nevwuilnnsieghrtawbitihlirteygaridntothhaezarddeavndelrioskp. ing world. The Institute aims to developlroacdaiiopclnprvoaecojrellaovctentemsdseaitmwnnhdrpouoieunlnxgitchseiytirangeiaenghlrgsloyatw-gfawieunmnngidedtaenhrdtraoifrynetelohrliofgswerkaesrsarhenidapadrspch.thoapItzraihsordapzraiardtpaBepoyalpiascrndoytpomdapriaktairktneeeighrssska,tona.lkoladecBphaeplyorrlcodosaaemcrdsihmnoiwnuphnttiihtchtiiehenescdgoaic-rnpeaodcrotn-oldyptuhaecrentporigopdangrueoosfcaticohnwohfi ch directly engages policymakers, knowledge, the Institute aims todevedleobaptesinacnroossvamtuicvheofpthoelgicloybe,asntrdatetgoy increaseknoswolcedigael, tchae pInastcitiuttye afiomrs troeddevuelcopiningnovvautilvne erability and harm.development with industry and wider stakeholders policy and to increase social capacity for reducingFocusand also research consultancy. vulnerability and harm.The Institute is developing three areas of activity through uinndteerrdsitsacnipdliinnpurgeanassrrcptyteooircrnbtueaselseiaEendsrvaelteryrvocnieohstlbkn,osospatthelholdeof awingnciaenlrti-ugemolrlaaepdttrioeoohfbnachlzhteaaomarzndeasxgsritedsso,,tuircnbsihugesrkavaes nivldloalframed in different ways and new theoretical approaches andprobFloemcuss.vHsVoouacllcizndtpTtoahhaehr-oreenveobotreuroreIlldeenogacetmphsisthcesbsiiadt,n:nutiltoitehlanoerpibsdorlipteeseioswrilafodcagreaitaepiicshmvolcheinlenaleaeodatsazplovriayianneneanrrxgldedndidssitufhtedfsinarreneRdrrigafceeesihnrpreenas,trertosaeawablapnialnlasoedylrwcmsnioinoifieansgdadan.gsncdluttcoinhvceeeibteaawey:dzr ta,thrphqdaecawvVusrunoui.atulltdvnhnirkeesrucherereaauaslabsbiznllnaii;ilaleerdiidtntririsescelba,osesycnubaoaionaefrtitidllacsniibeoRstvmlaoefyilsirelmaoirtslthmsiouioeoonnnsnpiace,tomeinavceh:enostderamdhttyhnezmw,aartvhctuuaehernhlralsndiaetnievihsgetlerhaiesaetebsowszitnilehnlihaitocviilresnaeieefsdte sodlraeofaenmcdvdacieecollrnaomgcolpeotmnCHAcmaioeUnOubjniomwLWnsnlniTniydoituUieTltylvnRrnisOaiernauAsuingBstiLtnrgidUihpeHivohntIsLsrwEehtlteDiRiartsdapdwoIAitTineonsmAicDsdtlgiGhi,niAhpEcialMfmioynlvrwiotaseeAhraeoyagNentdwyahDtrdooessrrS,,dkiamAtsdlophVptisrovaoEpupoicenrtcuhoochgafwprhzeriattaiasahrss,dtee assontcdaikaFocusiFhsarozolaaeHefnlantoarritvozdtoiadihrrsosqend,n,usr,dm:anrkheaoKeonounswtg;tanhdablhtouhasbw,ztawalzvayraholdsrllcdseoetasrahhndraeaoeonzegadptssrer,hednos:sodeetutacsaihcbenolaeeltdymnvi,eelnoamlpmnraveiidrsrastusegiolcetinaudilnivleianadstert,iliyeoasnnwdahncoihFosrdfraoozsellneaaectaatrieidrotonrvinamiKvnnuangednobltnwdroiwilsnecelkiodarv,amgeayttehbwib:sriooiinintuoahnlngtifoithtohvrinaeneleteeripsdewvaedeurawruvaccanarnesyediiissvrnceeeorrsgfeenilraasfiiettstriiunkovlorceileeemelw.aoniarfvnycepsineog.w,fTvrieahtrhmetyte,IhdnceshidD6Dtnpa-au1i7mtre1ndthuhs0ragit,vmoJfeeDnufaelsUacyswirnuis2isielvvtn0ouenend1rras2tBelnilituwvhyfaieeelDdatrlieiutynocpagrsagpoereDtaiu.mHnnore1gsfnd3et LthonEhfaaeArnzwrecdahetrahdesaooelroacoegniyraaedsltiocfarisk,sutrhprrisoinuggwhaysn, seuwch wasasoycsio-otefchrnioslokgilcealaarnnd ing, nneewwformfosromf risskosfharrinisgkansdhnaewriwnagys aofnridsk n e pwrowbalyesmopFsolf.eramsreiosrvekisiintf:foohrrtmtepacst:ia/o/snsittoeirsn.tgogo.boogolek.caopmla/sciete, / l ac financial hazards. ap forecasting.Examples of Current Research Activities Hazardssav:echulotuwralhheariztaagerds are produced, particul volcanoes, sea level rise and earthquakes;Landslides: Exploring both the spatial and temporal distribution soocfio-technological and financial hazards.SlaencdoEsnxliaddmeasrp, ylaensHd oathfzeacurimdrrspe:anctEtsrxetahsmaeitantrihcnehgy atchcaetuisveciot(inFetisrgoulrse 1). secondary Vulnerabilities and Resilience: the vuln on earthquhaakzeards, notably those communities whose vuphenLaondmsliedens:aE,xpploarinrgtibcouthlathrelsypatliaalnadndsltiedmeposraal ndTiprpiinvgeProinbtsa: Rseinsearcchhiangntgheepsh, ysiincal sapndascoecialaisnodlation, and where these in isolation and comat ifmf eectdSh,ietsectwyorcincbohdauamuitrislyoeemnH(aFocuzfiogalnuraldrnliesadt: i1sbEel)ix.dosaemrsia,ninatinindndgegtthvheeewiclmoointpphtarciontlsssogtohncacitoa lu ns ctirecmcbi eloaniammnsttkhpaiiiestlnneemtgxssaictoytyristicrtsooseedf.msse,esokr,x-nchpaotilswollteoloedrbdric‘geutaiepliwdpladiinfnafdguryscpeisooonsinnttielthasmin’eedpinsnoercpaarehys.ta z arFrirds kos,ntthireoruKg hn on ewwl ewdagyes: oifn nr iosvkaltei vaer nainndg, creativ new foClimsecaontdeary eAardthaqupakteapthieononm:enaU, pnartdiceurlasrtlyanding the diverse array of influencesExamples of Current Research Acclimltaiamntdees,lwicdhheislaeancnodgllreaibvehorraabtasinsgoinwncihthsapnsgoeeccsia,ileinsscsipeinnactciesltasuntddoing hRreeussimilliieenanccnee:sin,DecevosemplompeuicnngiitaiienlsnlyotovaittnhiveethhwaazeaysrpdtsroetbhpuaitaldtrheaytionoTfi pi ntdepoxefpivbrlenuoalirolgespdtiwnrrPeagusyoicscloiitetuhnnunecttsrereise.ehs:naizRnearoeedrddsseeaerfadferccftohcroimnvmguutlnnhitieeerspainhbyl es igcaf(eacar.cuoglet.,euaersapanorntscdghi,iaqnlssugoiaumfkrccepoishmaacintltash.tcrsheoeaotmHslidfmproealmrleaxynpaaisett)uyotrhapolroldfueisg.sahsottoe-rcsa llLlaeandndds lsi dlei ds,easn: d Exp loring both the spatial a the impacts that they cause (Fig‘tippCliinmagtepAdoaipntattiso’n:iUnndpearsstatncdilnigmthaetdeivesrysestems, historical and contemporary bankSinegcondary Hazards: Examiningcrisearsr,aykonf ionfwluleencdegs eclimdaiftefuchsainogne haasnodn smpeacitehs em atics. phenomena, particularly landslides the contrResiinnifclrliauesdtirnnugccthueur:emnDaenesed,veedesplfeoocrpivaulilnlyneginraitbhnleenpgorreovpuaaprsta,itsivouenchowf ay and river s to build resilience in communitietsimtoe, while collaborating with social scientiststhe ahsaolzdaerrpdesoplteh. at they face, ranging from threats from natural disasteearthquakes in the Himalayas) through to acute social impacts (such rs (Caetfh.lfgeie.mct actoemmAudnaiptiteastiinonde:veUlonpdinergstFcaiognuurdeni1tnrgiesthineloss of major industrial employment in County Durham, UK . as climate change has on species including human of infrastructure needed for vulnerable groups Tipping Points: Researching the physical and ‘tipping points’ in past climate systems, histori

IHRR research CALL FORTipping points SUBMISSIONSClimate changeBIOPICCC Interested in submitting toHuman health Hazard Risk Resilience?GeohazardsCoffee growing We’re looking for writers, photographers and artists from acrossCyclone Sidr Durham University and beyond to contribute to the next issue.Strategic science Email [email protected] for further details.Defining resilienceBrownfield landAberfan Disasterwww.durham.ac.uk/ihrr © Espen Rasmussen/Panos Pictures