TransitionsGarfield County Demographic and Economic Update State Demography Office Colorado Department of Local Affairs April 2018 https://demography.dola.colorado.gov/
Transitions to Watch• Migration – attracting and retaining the best and brightest. Can we continue to do it? Do we want to continue to do it and where do we put them?• Age and aging – impacts everything… including the economy.• Slowing labor force growth• Industrial transitions – retail, manuf. const.• Increase racial and ethnic diversity• Slowing income growth• Growing and slowing - Population
Big Picture – 2016-2017 Pop Change• US – 325.7 million, + 2.3 million or .7%• Colorado - 5,607,154• Ranked 9th fastest 1.4% - ID, NV, UT, WA, FL• 8th in total growth 77,049 – TX, FL, CA, WA, NC, GA, AZ• Growth of 578,000 since 2010 and Ave. Annual Growth rate of 1.5%• Garfield + 2,900 or .74% Mesa + 5,100 or .5• Eagle + 2,700 or .73%• Pitkin + 700 or .6%
Population Garfield County Population, 1990 to 2017 1990 1991 60,0001992 55,000 1993 50,000 1994 45,000 1995 40,000 1996 35,000 1997 30,000 1998 1999Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Garfield County Components of Population Change1990 Natural Increase 2,50019911992 NetMigration1993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Garfield County Components of1,200 Natural Increase Births Deaths1,0008006004002000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Population Change by Place 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total ch Ann. Ave 2017 2010-17 Pct. Ch.GARFIELD 56,150 56,003 56,749 56,940 57,182 57,755 58,938 59,167 3,017 0.8%COUNTY 6,395 6,378 6,455 6,477 6,516 6,611 6,767 6,826 431 0.9%Carbondale 9,571 9,535 9,647 9,787 9,793 9,850 10,001 9,977 406 0.6%Glenwood 4,495 4,481 4,534 4,534 4,572 4,636 4,750 4,821 326 1.0%Springs 1,080 1,075 1,090 1,090 1,091 1,098 1,114 1,109 9,136 9,108 9,214 9,219 9,228 9,305 9,465 9,465 29 0.4%New Castle 2,915 2,909 2,962 2,969 2,992 3,029 3,098 3,121 329 0.5% 206 1.0%Parachute 22,558 22,517 22,847 22,864 22,990 23,226 23,743 23,848 1,290 0.8%RifleSiltUnincorp.Area
2010-17 Net MigrationTotal 2,23265+ 1,100
Migration locations
Garfield County Total Estimated Jobs37,00035,00033,00031,00029,00027,00025,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Recession Employment
Total Employment Pre-Recession to 2017 Total Change Pct.(%) Change 2008-17 2008-17Statewide 381,314 13.0%Eagle 743 1.8%Garfield -7.4%Lake -2,721 8.8%Pitkin 251 -4.4%Summit -976 10.6% 2,566
15 Largest Employers in Garfield CountyBusiness Name Business Size/ Industry NameValley View Hospital # Employees 859 General Medical and Surgical HospitalsGrand River Health 520 Offices of Physical, Occupational and Speech Therapists, and AudiologistsGrand River Hospital District 440 General Medical and Surgical HospitalsColorado West Regional 350 Other Individual and Family ServicesMental Health OutpatientColorado Mountain College 300 Colleges, Universities, and Professional SchoolsValley View Hospital 300 Other Accounting ServicesProfessional Billing ServicesWalmart Supercenter 261 Department StoresSchmueser & Associates IncGarfield County School District 242 New Multifamily Housing Construction (except For-Sale Builders) 198 Elementary and Secondary SchoolsSunlight Mountain Resort 165 Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and MotelsHot Springs Athletic Club 165 Fitness and Recreational Sports CentersMassage 160 Other Electric Power GenerationHoly Cross Energy IncEncana Oil & Gas 150 Support Activities for Oil and Gas OperationsBayou Well Services 150 All Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesRoss Dress For Less 142 Family Clothing Stores Source: EMSI / DatabaseUSA.com
Proprietors as Share of Total Employment 2017 2016Lake 19.6% 20.1%Garfield 19.1% 19.1%Pitkin 17.6% 17.7%Eagle 17.6% 17.8%Summit 16.3% 16.8%Statewide 15.5% 15.4%Denver-Boulder MSA 14.6% 14.4%
Proprietor Trends 2001 to 20178,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Eagle Garfiled Lake Pitkin Summit
2017 Unemployment RatesArea Labor Force Employed Unemployed Unemp. RateColorado 2,992,307 2,907,468 84,839 2.8% 812 2.3%Eagle County 35,052 34,240Garfield County 31,778 30,863 915 2.9%Pitkin County 11,032 10,691 341 3.1%
Annual Wages (Real, 2017 $) 2001 to 2017$60,000$55,000$50,000$45,000$40,000$35,000$30,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Colorado Eagle Garfield Lake Pitkin Summit
GarfieldCommuting
AGEWhy?PreferencesHousingIncomeService DemandsLabor Force
We are Aging Fast• Currently very few people over the age 65. ◦ 6th lowest share of all states in US (13%) in 2015 ◦ 3rd fastest growing in the 65+• Baby Boomers ◦ Born 1946 – 1964 ◦ 1,360,000 Boomers in Colorado (25% of pop. in 2015)• 2015 – 2030 Colorado’s population 65+ will grow 719,000 to 1,270,000 (77%) (primarily from aging)• Transition age distribution from “young” to more US average between 2015 and 2030. State Demography Office, Census Bureau
Growth in young adults Demographicdue to migration DividendAGE
Population 65+ by County 2015 203014,00012,00010,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Eagle Garfield Lake Pitkin Summit
Aging Issues• Numbers• Economic Driver - wealthier …. depends ◦ Impact on occupational mix• Labor Force• Housing – Universal Design, sidewalks ◦ All price levels and need levels, fewer movers.• Income – Downward Pressure• Health/Disabilities• Transportation• Public Finance – Downward Pressure• Aging Plan – Make sure to have one.
Ethnicity/Race increasing
Census Bureau
Share of Net Increase in Working Age Population, 2015-2020AmericanIndian, NH Black, NHWhite, NHAsian, NHHispanic 20% 40% 60% 80% 0%
Educational Attainment Gap• Colorado has 2nd/3rd highest educational attainment gap in nation between White – non Hispanic and Hispanic – 30 points - 1. Washington D.C.- 51 - 2. California – 31 - 3. Colorado – 30 - 4. Hawaii - 28 - 5. Massachusetts – 28 - 16 - Arizona – 23 - 17 - Utah – 22 - 18 - Washington – 21• Influenced by being one of the highest attainments in US by White-non Hispanics (46%) but Colorado is 24th in attainment by Hispanics (16%) ACS 2016 Population 25+ with bachelor’s degree or higher.
Population by Race2016 ACS % White % Hispanic % OtherColorado 69% 21% 10%Eagle 67% 30% 3%Garfield 69% 28% 3%Pitkin 86% 10% 4% Source: ACS 2016 5-yr Estimate
Housing and Costs
Cost-Burdened Renters andOwners Owners pay Renters Owner Owner Renter Renter >35% of pay >35%Area Number Share Number Share income of incomeEagle County 12007 68.2% 5606 31.8% 28.7% 34.6%Garfield County 13695 65.9% 7076 34.1% 32.5% 38.6%Lake County 1737 55.7% 1384 44.3% 16.7% 35.9%Pitkin County 4774 62.8% 2827 37.2% 26.4% 33.6%Summit County 6532 67.2% 3182 32.8% 32.5% 43.4%Colorado 1320617 64.4% 730999 35.6% 21.5% 41.3%
Median Home Value, ACS 2012-16 - 282,500 - 19th highest value - 8th largest increase from 2007-11 of $37,900
Housing Affordability Median Median home home Home Home price to price toGeographical Price Price HH Inc HH Inc income incomeArea 2007 2016 2007 2016 ratio 2007 ratio 2016 chgDenver 272,505 292,700 53,179 56,258 5.1 5.2 0.08Summit 520,828 496100 76,036 70,192 6.8 7.1 0.22Lake 192,120 184,200 45,391 46,928 4.2 3.9 -0.31Garfield 384,799 299,700 71,573 61,300 5.4 4.9 -0.49Pitkin 743,736 552,900 76,402 69,789 9.7 7.9 -1.81Eagle 593,600 438,500 79,394 78,763 7.5 5.6 -1.91American Community Survey 5 Yr. 2007 and 2016
Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates, Census
More Growth but Slowing Balancing Job Growth with the Population
Driver and Local Resident Service Jobs and Forecast for Garfield 2015 Share of 2030 Share of Jobs Total Jobs TotalTRADITIONAL 5,644 17% 6,952 15%REGIONAL & NATIONAL SERVICESTOURISM 5,926 18% 7,815 17%RETIREE GENERATED JOBSPUBLIC ASST. GENERATED JOBS 3,779 11% 4,308 9%INVESTMENT INCOME & WEALTHTOTAL DIRECT BASIC JOBS 3,047 9% 7,082 15%LOCAL RESIDENT SERVICETOTAL JOBS 587 2% 672 1% 1,078 3% 1,444 3% 20,287 61% 28,381 61% 13,087 39% 18,318 39% 33,374 100% 46,699 100%Population 2015 2030 Garfield 57,779 77,404
Ann. Ave. 2015 2050 Change Pct Ch.REGION 11 250,525 409,507 158,982 1.41% Garfield Mesa 57,779 105,711 47,932 1.74% Moffat Rio Blanco 149,023 236,554 87,531 1.33% Routt 12,884 13,868 984 0.21% 6,529 7,376 847 0.35% 24,310 45,998 21,688 1.84%
Risks (plus or minus)• National Growth – National Policies – Intl’ immigration• Water• Housing – supply, price, type, location• Infrastructure/Transportation• State Budget/Policy• Aging – labor force, prepared labor force• Industry changes – downturn, bust, recession, competitiveness.• Natural disasters - nationally
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