LISat Symposium Program Book

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 commonly costly, time consuming and laborious. The high dynamics changes in forest cover and landscaping were also another challenges. Dynamics changes in forest cover require high frequency forest inventory. Relying on the experience of the nation's foresters, the use of remote sensing data and aerial photographs on forest planning and forest inventory regularly since the 1940s, then the use of digital remote sensing data since 1980s, the nation is increasingly optimistic about the presence of remote sensing technology. Technical constraints due to weather, the dynamics of social change, economics and politics can be overcome with the leaps of remote sensing technology. In forest management, utilization of remote sensing data, has become a must, both at the national, management unit and ecosystem unit levels. Since the 1990s, the forestry sector is the largest user of satellite imagery in Indonesia, Forestry Department particularly, use the Landsat imageries (from Landsat 4 and Landsat 5 to 8) to map the extent of forest cover per time period. No the use of medium resolution satellite data is no longer a costly item, because it can be accessed easily and free of charge. For management unit level, the use of satellite imagery is not only using the digital medium resolution imagery, the use of high-resolution imagery and very-high resolution has become a part of the routine operational use. Since 2014 the presence Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) imagery have afforded new challenges and opportunities in forest inventory. Their utilization for mapping and forest inventory has been promising. The further utilization of the UAV images will increase continuously because the technology is capable for (a) recording data at a low safety risk (b) can operate fully semi-automatic or full automatic mode (c) can perform data recording under a cloud (d) does not need special take off and landing area, (e) the cost is relatively cheap compared using satellite image technology, (f) provides data having a very high spatial resolution (10 cm). With this UAV technology, forest inventory might be done quickly (recording capacity of about 3000 ha per day) with relative efficiency ranges between 30-40% (or 60-70% cheaper compared to the conventional method). As a forester, the presence of a digital satellite imagery ranging from low resolution up to ultra-high resolution has opened a big opportunity and challenge in forest inventory techniques that are effective, efficient, comprehensive, accountable and scalable. The UAV image particularly, these opportunities could include: (a) the use of cheap technology and 'handy', (b) an inventory with low risk and non-destructive. Program Book 49

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 'Indonesian Sea Level Rise and Jakarta Bay Reclamation' Bisman Nababan, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Dept. of Marine Science and Technology, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia Profile: Bisman Nababan is currently working as a lecturer at the Dept. of Marine Sciences and Technology, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Science, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor. He completed bachelor degree in 1989 from Agrometeorology Dept., IPB. He graduated for master degree in 1998 from Nova Southeastern University, Dania, Florida, USA majoring in Coastal Zone Management. He graduated for Ph.D. degree in 2005 from the College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, Florida, USA majoring in Biological Oceanography and Marine Remote Sensing. He is active in professional organizations such as the Indonesian Association of Oceanology (ISOI), Indonesian Society for Remote Sensing (MAPIN), International Society of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences (IReSES), Association of Fisheries of Indonesia (IPSIKANI), Council of Asian Science Editors (CASE), and the Fishermen Association of Indonesia (HNSI). Research Interests: His current research project involves in the study of Indonesian sea surface dynamic and the development of Indonesia regional algorithm for sea surface height estimation from satellite. He is also studying in the variability of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a concentration based on multi sensors satellite in Indonesian waters. Summary of the topic: A rise trend of global warming leads to a rise in global sea level due to sea water expansion and melting land based ices such as mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets. 2 Jakarta as the Indonesian Capital with total area of 662 km and total population of 12.5 million is facing a very high environmental pressure due to relatively high rate of population growth, economic and industrial development, and housing/apartment development. Based on this hypothetical problems, in 2007, Indonesian Government through a project of National Capital Integrated Coastal Development (NCICD) cooperated with the Dutch Government initiated a big project in Jakarta called a Giant Sea Wall (GSW) Project which span along 32 km off the Jakarta Bay with the primary purpose to protect Jakarta from flood or sea water inundation. In this paper, we elaborate and discuss the scientific background of GSW project, internal and external factors affecting the project, and the possibility of strategy and policy to the project success. Program Book 50

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 ABSTRACTS Program Book 51

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 AGRICULTURE (AGR) AGR-001 Mapping of Paddy Field Integrated with the Duck Breeding Ground. Sudiarto*, Baba Barus, Khursatul Munibah, Asdar Iswati (Bogor Agricultural University, Dramaga, Bogor, Indonesia; [email protected]) Paddy field is a land use that requires a lot of water for rice cultivation. Paddy field that has water availability can create opportunities for other uses, such as for ducks breeding ground. Ducks are waterfowl and omnivorus, and it can be kept with a simple keeping system and can produced well so that it can be kept in the paddy field. Aims of this research are to mapping the suitability of paddy fields for ducks breeding ground, as well as the effect of irrigation and cropping pattern against ducks breeding ground. Technique that used in this research is to identify paddy field coverage with satellite imagery and field survey. The results from the interpretation of satellite imagery acquired two types of paddy fields’s land cover, there are fallow and transplanting rice. The results of field survey showed that the distribution pattern of duck breeding are extends to follows the irrigation channels and during the fallow. The suitability of paddy fields for duck breeding were divided into four priority classes that was measured based on land cover of paddy field, cropping pattern (IP 200) and the distance to the irrigation channels. The paddy fields which have the irrigation channel near its location has more capacity to accommodating the ducks breeding, and vice versa. The best time for ducks breding was when the “rendeng” rice harvest (March to April). The paddy fields that are not recommended, was the fields with IP 250 and on “gadu” rice harvest on September. AGR-002 Simulation Phenomenon of Urban Heat Island in Semarang Using WRF-ARW Model in July 2015. Dita Rahmawati*, Sri Aprilia Khoirunisa (Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika; [email protected]) Semarang city is one of the major cities in Indonesia where population density and land use to be a contributor to an increase in air pollution index and the urban heat island phenomenon. Urban Heat Island (UHI) is a meteorological phenomenon characterized by an increase in surface air temperatures in urban areas where the population is very complex activity compared to surrounding rural areas. This phenomenon can be an index of climate change locally in the long term and the discomfort index of a region is compound if simultaneously occurs on the days during the dry season. the approach will be undertaken in this study to look at the UHI phenomenon in the city of Semarang is to look at a variable surface air temperature, potential temperature, and distribution of the vertical height of the height of PBL in the midday and evening of measurement and modeling of WRF-ARW and Radio Sonde. The primary data used in this study is data FNL of 1st June to 7th July, 2015, as a sample of the days in the Drought, then the results will simulate the UHI phenomenon over the city of Semarang on data representation in the dry season. Program Book 52

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 AGR-003 Identification of Rice Fields Using Multi-temporal NDVI and PCA Method on Landsat 8 (Case Study: Demak, Central Java). Abdi Sukmono*, Ardiansyah (Department of Geodetic Engineering; Diponegoro University; [email protected]) Paddy (Oryza sativa, sp) is one of the most important agricultural sector in Indonesia, because rice is the main food for more than 90% of Indonesia's population. Based on BPS-Susenas data, consumption of rice per capita in 2013 amounted to 97.4045 kg/capita/year. In 2017, the Government has the mission of realizing Indonesia became self-sufficient in food. Therefore, the Government should be able to seek the stability of the fulfillment of basic needs for food, such as wetlands mapping. Its accurate mapping can use a quick and easy method such as Remote Sensing. In this study, carried out the identification of rice fields using st multitemporal Landsat 8 based on Rice Planting Time 1 in Demak that range between the end of October 2013 to early March 2014. The methods which was used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and band combination. Image classification is processed by using nine classes, those are water, settlements, mangrove, gardens, fields, rice fields rd th nd 1 , rice fields 2 , rice fields 3 and rice fields 4 . The results showed the rice st fields area obtained from the PCA method was 50,009 ha, combination bands was 51,016 ha and NDVI method was 45,893 ha. The accuracy level was obtained PCA method (84.848%), band combination (81.818%), and NDVI method (75.758%). AGR-004 Review on the Application of Remote Sensing for Agriculture in Indonesia. Sri Hartini (Geospatial Information Agency/BIG, Indonesia; [email protected]) Remote sensing application on agriculture is among the oldest and the largest applications of this technology for natural resources inventory and management, including in Indonesia. The advancement on the remote sensing technology in terms of its temporal, spectral and spatial resolutions, both in active and passive sensors, enable people to get better opportunities to the application of this technology. At the beginning, remote sensing technology has been applied simply to differentiate the agricultural and non-agricultural area in order to determine the agricultural area. In fact this task remains a challenge due to several obstacles. Remote sensing technology also then has been applied for monitoring crop health related to water stress, nutrient deficiencies, weed management, insect diseases and flood hazard. By combining with Geographical Information System (GIS) and other technology, remote sensing technology has been applied for yield forecasting and even supporting precision farming. In general, the availability and access to remote sensing imageries is among the problems hindered the application, besides other technical problems related to data quality and characteristics of the agriculture areas. This paper will review the application of remote sensing technology on agriculture in Indonesia including the challenge and opportunities for future development and application. Program Book 53

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 AGR-005 Observing The Eruption of Mt. Sinabung 2013 - 2016 Using Landsat-8 OLI. Suwarsono*, Hidayat, Totok Suprapto, Indah Prasasti, M. Rokhis Khomarudin (Remote Sensing Application Center; Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN); [email protected]) Since 2013 until now, Mt. Sinabung in North Sumatra has shown fluctuating eruptive activities. The eruption has claimed lives and destroyed croplands around the slopes of volcanoes. This study attempts to observe eruptive activities that occurred in the period 2013 to mid-2016 using Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). The observations focused on the areas which are affected by the eruption, which covered both materials from the eruption of lava, ash fall and pyroclastic flow. The results showed that the initially affected areas eruption in the south and southeast. But in the last eruption, the direction of the eruption was changed, which leads to the east. This study shows the importance of the use of Landsat-8 OLI for monitoring the changes in the direction of eruption from the volcano. AGR-006 Method for Detecting Biological Parameter of Rice Growth and Early Planting of Paddy by Using Multitemporal Remote Sensing Data. Dede Dirgahayu (Pusfatja; LAPAN; [email protected]) Rice crop is the most important food crop for the Asian population, especially in Indoseia. During the growth of rice plants have four main phases, namely the initial planting, the vegetative phase, the generative phase, and bare land. Monitoring the condition of the rice plant needs to be conducted in order to know whether the rice plants have problems or not in its growth. Application of remote sensing technology, which uses satellite data such as Landsat 8 and others which has a spatial and temporal resolution is high enough for monitoring the condition of crops such as paddy crop in a large area. In this study has been made an algoritm for monitoring rapidly of rice growth condition using Maximum of Vegetation Index (EVI Max). The results showed that the time of Early Planting can be estimated if known when EVI Max occured. The value of EVI Max and when it occured can be known by trough spatial analysis of Multitemporal EVI Landsat 8 or other medium spatial resolution satellite data. AGR-007 Mapping the Vegetation Type and Vegetation Cover Percentage in Green Zone Using Pleaides Imagery. Bambang Trisakti (Remote Sensing Application Center; LAPAN; [email protected]) Green space is needed to maintain the availability of land as a water catchment area, creating aspects of urban planning through a balance between the natural environment and the built environment that are useful for the public interest. Local governments have to map their green zones and monitor the changes of green space in the zone. Utilization of medium and high resolution satellite data have been used to identify and monitor green space. This paper explains the Program Book 54

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 utilization of high resolution Pleaides imagery for mapping vegetation type and estimate the vegetation cover percentage in the green zone. Vegetation cover as indicator of green space was identified using combination of NDVI and blue band. Vegetation types in the green space were classified into three classes: low- medium vegetation, medium-high vegetation and sparse vegetation using unsupervised and supervised classification methods. The area of vegetation types was calculated to estimate the vegetation cover percentage inside the green zone. Classification accuracy of unsupervised and supervised methods scored respectively 97% and 98%. Furthermore, this method can be used for quick estimation to produce acurate information of vegetation cover percentage in the green zone, thus helping local governments to manage the green spaces in their regions. AGR-008 Conversion Patterns of Paddy Fields in Subang Regency, West Java, Indonesia. Paulus Basuki Kuwat Santoso*, Widiatmaka, Supiandi Sabiham, Machfud, I. Wayan Rusastra (Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia; [email protected], pbksantosogmail.com) Population growth and activities have contribution to land use conversion, including paddy fields which have experienced much pressure. This research was conducted in Subang Regency, West Java, as one of the food production centers in Java Island. The objectives of this research are (1) to analyze conversion patterns of paddy fields into non-paddy field and (2) to analyze the driving factor of such land use conversion from paddy fields to non-paddy fields. This conversion analyses used the data of land use of land cover available in 1999, 2009, and 2014. Data of land use in 2004 were obtained from interpretation of land satellite imagery in 2004. All land covers were transferred into a raster form and divided into 15mx15m grids. The research shows the number of paddy fields have been continuously shrinking in conversion patterns from paddy fields into plantation and built-up areas. Over the periods of 1999-2004, 2004-2009, and 2009-2014, the numbers of paddy field cells that have been converted ware 980,957 cells, or 22,072 Ha; 24,884 cells, or 560 Ha; dan 24,075 cells, or 542 Ha, respectively. AGR-009 Mapping Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand in Batanghari Catchment. Suria Tarigan ( Bogor Agriculture University; [email protected]). Ecosystem services represent the benefits that humans obtain from ecosystems. These services are both direct and indirect in nature. By definition, an ecosystem service is only a service, if there is a (human) benefit. In other words, there must be a certain demand by people to use a particular ecosystem service. Batanghari catchment is stretching from Bukit Barisan high land in the west to the peat land area in the east coast. The catchment provides vital ecosystem service for the inhabitants. Due to the rapid land use change in the catchment, there is a tendency that the provision of ecosystem service of the catchment is declining. It is necessary to map types of ecosystem services and their current condition in the Program Book 55

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 catchment. The map can be used by decision maker to plan for their protection and mitigation. Different type of ecosystems has different functions. Consequently, their ecosystem capacities to supply services are strongly dependent on (a) natural land cover, hydrology, soil conditions, fauna, elevation, slope and climate as well as (b) anthropogenic impacts; mainly land use but also emissions, pollution, etc. Land covers analysis using remote is important source of data to map demand and supply of ecosystem services. We presented ecosystem service map of Batanghari catchment in the period 2010 using remote sensing data, demographic statistic books and the hydrological simulation model. AGR-010 Monitoring of Landscape Change in Paddy Fields: Case Study of Karawang District – West Java Province. Eduwin Eko Franjaya*, Syartinilia, Yudi Setiawan (Dept. Landscape Architecture, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]). Paddy field is an important agricultural land in Indonesia, as one of the largest rice producing-country in the world. At least 26 from 33 provinces in Indonesia are characterized by the existence of paddy field landscape. However, due to the increasing of population and development of infrastructure building, a conversion of paddy field rapidly occurs in many sites. This study aimed to examine the dynamics change in paddy field in Karawang District-West Java during the period of 1994-2015. The method used in this study mainly by the remote sensing technique using satellite images data. The result indicated that conversion of paddy fields in Karawang is approximately 10,326.6 ha. It took up 9.92% from total area of paddy fields. Based on the result, the changes are likely to occur in the middle of karawang district, near the central city. This result showed the change of paddy field in 1994 converted into some built-up areas such as settlement or roads in 2015. However, about 85,597.56 ha paddy field is not changed during these period. The study showed that paddy fields landscape is facing a changes over the last two decades. AGR-011 Transfer Function Control Strategy of Subak Rice Field Land and Agricultural Development in Denpasar City Based on Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS). Indayati Lanya*, I Nengah Netera Subadiyasa, Ketut Sardiana, I Putu Gusti Ratna Adi (Udayana University; [email protected]). The success of tourism development in Bali gave a negative impact on Subak rice -1 fields, especially on land convertion over 2579 ha year (2002-2013) to the area -1 awakened. Denpasar city has lost rice fields 185 ha year and six Subak, as well as potentially losing 10 Subak, as a result of the allocation of space in the region in the Spatial Planing. UNESCO, in 2012 the establishment of Subak as a cultural heritage. Most Subak rice fields designated as an open area of green space City (OAGSC). Satellite image Iconos 2002, Word 2015 View Coverage of Denpasar, and ArcGIS 10.3 software used for mapping the balance of rice field and violation of land use in the area of urban (GOSC). The control strategy over the convertion of Program Book 56

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 spatial land-based environment is done through zoning map. Control of legal regulations on the Regional Regulation. Land conversion of rice fields for 13 years (2002-2015) in Denpasar (572.76 ha), comes standard acreage of rice fields in 2015. Denpasar city has experienced of food deficits, even in the OAGSC has -1 awakened 96.04 ha (24.04 ha year ). A period of 50 years into the future, rice fields which needs to be protected 872.83 ha, buffer area 984.77 ha, and can be converted 499.81 ha. Academic studies of Subak rice fields land protection as the sustainable food agricultural land (zoning text) resulted in 18 chapters and 77 articles used as a regulation for the control over the convertion of rice fields and agricultural development in urban areas. AGR-012 Land Conversion and Economic Development in Jawa Barat Province: Trade off or Synergy? Nunung Nuryartono*, Alfianisa Tongato, Sigit Yusdianto, Syamsul Pasaribu, Triana Anggraenie (International Center for Applied Finance and Economics (interCAFE) and Economics Department IPB; [email protected]). Jawa Barat province contributed 22 percent to the national rice production. Since land availability is one of important factors for food production, this must be addressed seriously. During the period of 2008-2013 years there has been a shrinking of wetland area of 20,502 hectares (nearly 2.2 percent out of total wetland area in Jawa Barat). This condition may have implications on local and national food production and food security. This study analyzes influencing factors for land use changes of wetland in West Java using a panel of 5200 villages level data in 2011-2014 by panel method. Important influencing factors that contribute to the land conversions mostly related to the development such as increasing number of new settlements and regional economic development. Geographically, some areas have high rate of land conversion compared to other areas such as regency of Bekasi and Bogor (hinterland of DKI Jakarta province). As there are trade off between economic development and land use, government policy should be adressed for economic development while it should be simultaneously preventing wetland conversion. AGR-013 Spatial Modelling of Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) in South Tangerang City, Banten. Khalid Saifullah*, Baba Barus, Ernan Rustiadi (Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia; [email protected]). Urban sprawl in peri-urban region remains a major issue for regional planning and development, as it converts most of the land cover into built-up settlements rapidly and extensively beyond its spatial allocation plan (RTRW). South Tangerang City is one of municipalities in Jabodetabek with the most rapid annual population growth rate reached 6.87%. LUCC analysis from three LANDSAT land cover maps (1990, 2002, and 2014) shows that the built-up area has increased 8 times (8650 ha) in 1990-2014 with the average annual growth rate of 10.83% per sub-district (kelurahan). The most extensive land conversion type in 1990-2002 was vegetated land to open land (3605 ha), while in 2002-2014 land conversion type was Program Book 57

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 dominated by open land to built-up (3446 ha). In general, the built-up area expansion in 1990-2002 shows irregular ribbon development pattern in district Serpong Utara, Pondok Aren, Ciputat Timur, Ciputat, and Pamulang, while district Serpong tends to represent leap frog development pattern. The expansion in 2002-2014 shows infill and ribbon development pattern continuation across the city. MLP was used to model LUCC sensitivity prediction. The model performance shows 73.16% accuracy with ROC validation of prediction output reaches 0,804 for 2014, which is qualified to predict LUCC sensitivity in 2032. AGR-014 Estimated Production of Crops Plant Based on Land Suitability Using Geo-Eye Imagery in The District Karangasem, Bali. Heratania Aprilia Setyowati*, Shanti Puspitasari, Eni Susanti, Ratna Nurani, Retno Ariyani, Rahmawati Esti P, Aranda Amatul Firdausi, Sigit Heru Murti B.S. (Program Studi Kartografi dan Penginderaan Jauh; Departemen Sains Informasi Geografi; Fakultas Geografi; Universitas Gadjah Mada, Sekip Utara, Sleman, Yogyakarta 55281; [email protected]). Agriculture is a vital matter in an agricultural country like Indonesia. Along with the development time, growth, and development of the construction coupled with less information on agricultural production makes a lot of public land or any intervening land conversion into non-agricultural land. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the activities of agricultural crop production particularly to the agricultural potential in an area can be determined further. Based on research this was conducted in the District of Karangasem Bali with varies physical conditions. Estimated production of agricultural crops using remote sensing techniques and geographic information systems through land suitability approach, where the commodity under research including rice, maize, and cassava. This research aims to: 1) Estimate the production and productivity of agriculture crops with the suitability of land approach in Karangasem district, 2) Calculate the production and productivity of agriculture crops, 3) Map the type of cropping pattern and time of planting. The result of this research is remote sensing and GIS can be used to estimate production and productivity of agricultural crops with suitability land approach. The total production of rice is 540,173.840 kg/year, corn 1,843,857.202 kg/year, and casava 903,416.517 kg/year. Type planting patterns and time crops agriculture in Karangasem affected by subak system, weather, economic farmers, and different in each land suitability. AGR-015 Changes Detection in Wetland Irrigation District Indramayu with Spectral Mixture Analysis Method. Alia Saskia Puspitasari (Institute Technology Bandung; [email protected]). Inaccuracies of agricultural land irrigated data become a serious problem in the decision to national food security policy. It is caused by the conversion of agricultural land into non agricultural land rapidly. It required a monitoring method that can provide input in managing iriigated land that cover a wide area, rapid time, accurate, efisien and current. Remote sensing technolgy is the one of Program Book 58

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 method can be used for the purpose. SPOT data of Indramayu Distric in 2010 and 2015 is used in this paper. Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) method is use for supervised classification. SMA is a physically based model where the spectrum of a mixture or combination of pixels modeled as a pure spectrum called endmember. The components contained in a single pixel can be identified and determined spatial proportion. SMA methods used to detect subpixel and classification of the mix piksel on remotely sensed imagery. The results of this study is the detection of changes in irrigated land. AGR-016 Impact of Oil and Gas Field in Sugar Cane Condition Using Landsat 8 In Indramayu Area, West Java Province, Republic of Indonesia. Tri Muji Susantoro*, Asep Saipuloh, Ketut Wikantika, Alia Saskia P. (Center for Remote Sensing & Research and Development Center for Oil and Gas Technology (LEMIGAS); [email protected]). The study tried to monitor sugar cane condition surrounding of oil and gas field area. The spectral approaches were conducted for mapping sugar cane stress. As an initial stage Landsat-8 was corrected radiometrically. Radiometric correction is an important stages for spectral approaching. So that all pixel values were transformed to the surface reflectance. Several vegetation index were conducted to monitor vegetation stress surrounding of oil and gas field. NDVI, EVI, DVI, GVI, GRVI, GDVI and GNDVI were applied for generating tentative sugar cane stress images. The results indicated that sugar cane surrounding of oil and gas field has been influenced by oil and gas field. AGR-017 Land-Conversion Processes of Agricultural Land into Urban Settlement in Surabaya. Muhammad Fikri Amrullah (University State of Malang; [email protected]). Surabaya is the second mega city of Indonesia. Village of Ngagelrejo is one of the most densely populated areas in Surabaya which originally was an agricultural region. This village is interesting research, because the status of entire land is state property whose legality evidenced by the green letters (surat ijo). The purpose of this research is to find out the process and the factors that affect the conversion of agricultural land into settlement in Ngagelrejo. Acquisition of information of this qualitative research is determined by triangulation, analyzing document about the development of Surabaya, and based on key and expert informants. The approach of analysis is the process of spatial, but limits of this article are discussion about the process of land conversion and early development of Ngagelrejo village. The results showed that conversion of agricultural land began in 1957, then developed until 1999. Factors affecting of conversion of agricultural land in Ngagelrejo is the rapid population growth that impact the increasing need for land settlement, in addition, the price of the land at that time was still low, and the development of industrial sector very rapidly. Program Book 59

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 AGR-018 Deriving Vulnerability Indicators for Crop Production Regions in Indonesia. Perdinan*, Yon Sugiarto, Ujang Sehabudin, Tri Atmaja, Lina Febriyanti (Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia; [email protected]). Food supply is considered as one of the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Higher temperature and changes in rainfall patterns and intensity may adversely impact crop production, which will eventually have an implication to food supply. Consequently, adaptation strategies should be devised to address the potential adverse impacts. The adaptation strategies can be devised by considering factors contributed to cause vulnerability of food supply chain, starting from production to consumption. The contributed factors are identified by defining indicators for each component of the food supply chain in one of crop production centers in Indonesia, West Java. The identification processes consider the existing problems of the food supply chain, covering aspects of production, post-harvest and storage, distribution and consumption. Field surveys to Indramayu district, the main grower of paddy production, and Garut district, the main grower of corn production, has been conducted to explore the problems related to each aspect of the food supply chain. Crop simulation model has also been employed to study the potential impacts of climate change on crop production in the two production centers. The selection of the vulnerability indicators is also considered the data availability for the research area. The result is proposed a list of indicators classified into production, post-harvest and storage, distribution and consumption that can be used as a reference to devise plausible adaptation options for the development of climate change adaptation programs, which are aimed at enhancing the food supply resilience to climate change. AGR-019 Spatial Simulation Modelling of Paddy Fields Changes Scenario in Banyumas Regency, Central Java: A Cellular Automata-Markov Chain Approach. Assyria Fahsya Umela*, Nila Ratnasari, Ainil Mardhiah, Widyanissa Rahmayani (Kartografi dan Penginderaan Jauh, Fakultas Geografi, Universitas Gadjah Mada; [email protected]). Paddy field area nowadays have been decreased continuously. Those changes is the necessary of build-up area which increased throughout the years. Linear relation that occurred between the total area of agriculture, in this case the paddy field area and the population growth including the need of build up area could threatens the national food security. Higher population will lead to higher needs of build area and thus could cause to paddy field conversion. Banyumas regency is one of the food national security in Central Java with paddy as the main commodity. Year 2010, this regency has rice surplus stock that reached 44,750 tons with total area of paddy field that spread in 27 district at 68,852 Ha with mean production in amount of 5.65 tons/Ha, but in the year of 2014 the harvest area have been changed into 61,552 Ha and the production only reach production in the average of 4,968 ton/Ha (BPS Banyumas Regency). To support the Program Book 60

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 sustainability of national food security, this research is made which integrate multi temporal remote sensing and GIS technology to evaluate the changes of paddy field a rea using Celullar Automata – Markov Chain model; and also to create a projection of paddy field area and its average production amount in the next 25 years. Analysis result of the paddy field changes were validated using error matrix method in order to know the accuracy of the model. The images that used in this research are Landsat imagery year 2010 and 2014. AGR-020 Assessment of the Potential Improvement of Rural Food Security in Mexico Using Decision Tree Land Use Classification on Medium Resolution Satellite Imagery. Adriana Bermeo, Stephane Couturier* (Geography Institute, UNAM; [email protected]). Food security in sub-tropical countries has recovered much importance in international agendas, but spatial components of food security remain largely undocumented. Among other aspects, food security can be assessed using a food availability index, i.e. the balance between basic food production and its consumption. We propose a spatial representation of this assessment in the densely populated rural area of the Huasteca Poblana, Mexico, where selfsufficiency of basic grains has a wellknown decreasing tendency. The main agricultural systems in this area are the traditional 'milpa' (a multicrop practice with maize as the main basic crop) system, coffee plantations and grazing land for bovine livestock. In this paper, we estimated the potential conversion of extensive coffee and pasture systems to milpa - based smallholder maize production. For this purpose, the surface of extensive agrosystems were estimated using a decision tree algorithm involving the detailed coffee agricultural census data, and a combination of unsupervised and supervised spectral classification techniques of medium scale (Landsat) satellite imagery. We found that some large rural geostatistical units of this region could benefit to up to 30% increment in the food availability index from the conversion of extensive systems to the traditional multicrop milpa system. AGR-021 Spatial Pattern of Critical Land in Komering Watershed as a Result of Land Use/Land Cover Changes from 1990-2016 Period. Saras Tiara Dayanti*, Eko Kusratmoko, Supriyatna (Magister Programe Department of Geography Universitas Indonesia; [email protected]) Land use/ land cover changes in a watershed could affect the ecological system, hydrological system and water quality, meanwhile land use/ land cover changes study is needed to conduct especially in Komering watershed. Land use/ land cover is the main factor determining the critical level of land, so the land use/ land cover changes should correspond with the capability through which degraded land can be controlled. This study aimed to calculate land use/ land cover changes from 1990 to 2016 and generalize critical land criterions. The objectives of the study was to determine the physical and social factors that influence the degree of Program Book 61

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 criticality land in watershed. Physical and social characteristics were measured including soil salinity, thickness of peat, water logging, solum, slopes, outcrop, land productivity, and policy. This study applied supervised classification- maximum likelihood algorithm in ENVI 5.1 imagine to detect land use/land cover changes observed in Komering watershed, South Sumatera province, using multispectral satellite data obtained from Landsat 5, Landsat 7, and Landsat 8 for the years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2016 respectively. Determination of the critical level of land and land use/ land cover conditions are executed through a spatial approach by utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and statistical analysis. In this paper also discused critical level of land in Komering watershed with policies from up to the top. AGR-022 Sensible Heat Flux of Oil Palm Plantation: Comparing Aerodynamic and Penaman-Monteith Methods. Nurul Amri Komarudin (Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Oil Palm (Elais guinensis Jacq.) has a unique morphological characteristics, in particular it has a uniform canopy. As plants become more mature, their canopies will be close to each other and influences characteristics of micrometeorology of it.Sensible heat flux estimation of oil palm plantation is important to identify the contribution of oil palm in reducing heat to its surrounding environment. This research compared two methods, Aerodynamic and Penman-Monteith. The result shows similar diurnal variations. The peak of sensible heat flux happen in the afternoon, both for two and twelve years oil palm plantations. Sensible heat flux of young palm plantation is higher than the older plantations, with mean value 0.52 W/m² (stable), 43.53 W/m² (unstable), 0.63 W/m² (neutral), with standard deviation of 0.50, 28.75 and 0.46 respectively and the old plantation is 0.29 W/m² (stable), 35.38 W/m² (unstable) dan 0.47 W/m² (neutral), with standard deviation of 0.54, 23.39 and 0.46 respectively. Sensible heat flux estimated by Penman- Monteithmethod in both study areas was higher than the value estimated by Aerodynamic method with respective value of 0.77 W/m² (stable), 45.13 W/m² (unstable) dan 0.63 W/m² (neutral), with standard deviation of 0.96, 29.61 and 0.91 respectively dan 0.34 W/m² (stable), 35.82 W/m² (unstable) dan 0.71 W/m² (neutral), with standard deviation of 0.20, 24.31 and 0.90 respectively. AGR-023 Land Use Patterns Analysis of Indigenous Communities Using Spatial Fragmentation Method. Luluk Dwi Wulan Handayani*, Khursatul Munibah, Rilus Kinseng (Department of Soil Science and Land Resources, Bogor Agricultural University; Center for Environmental Research, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) The high rate of population and development processes that tend to emphasize the modernization of the physical aspect can involve incompatible development and misleading. This caused the high needs for land. Consequently, there is encroachment of forest and lands owned by communities of indigenous Program Book 62

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 communities, especially Baduy traditional territories in Kanekes village, Lebak district, Banten Province. This study was conducted to analyze the pattern of land use with the spatial fragmentation method using Landsat TM 7 and Landsat 8. The results can be used for early information to identify behaviors and local knowledge of indigenous people. The results of this study are guidance of space utilization and sustainable development of the region. AGR-024 Analysis Effect of Land Cover Change to Discharge Surface Flow in Bogor City (Comparative between Rational Method and Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number Method). Fulki Dwiyandi Araswati*, Prima Jiwa Osly (Pancasila University; [email protected]) The development of Bogor City had a great impact to the activities in the surrounding area, especially the change of land-cover that previously is an unconstructed area, now become a built-up area. The rapid changes in the land cover have awakened an impact on increasing the coefficient of runoff and make an increased surface flow rate. This study was conducted to determine how the effects of land cover change to the surface flow rate in Bogor. The analysis used to determine land cover changes is using GIS Models and methods that used to analyze the surface flow rate is using Rational method and Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. According to analysis, in 2007 to 2016 period, land cover changes Bogor tends to increase. Changes that occur in the form of non built-up area into a built-up area. Built-up area increased to 78.12%, while non built-up area decreased by 49.82%. With the significant decreasing of non built-up area caused coefficient water flow becomes larger every year, so that surface flow rate to be increased by 9.910% with Rational method and amounted to 2.121% by SCS-CN method in the 2007 to 2016 period. AGR-025 Estimation of Emission of Biomass Change Based on Land Use Change Modeling. Muhammad Ardiansyah*, Widiatmaka, Miranti Anisa Tejaningrum (Department of Soil Science and Land Resources, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) The role of estate crops subsectors in supporting West Kalimantan Province’s economics are relatively large. Furthermore, the non-estate crops land will be converted into estate crops land. The land use change analysis was done to see how much the change in land uses has occurred and to model land use change, so this modeling can be used to predict future land use. The Artificial neural network was the tool that used to make a land use change modeling. The purpose of this study was to predict the land use on 2025 in Pontianak District and to calculate the emission of CO2. There were two scenarios that used on this research, BAU (Business As Usual) and conservative. Prediction of land use in 2025 with BAU’s scenario showed that the estate crop will be continue increasing followed by the decreased of swamp forest (19.80%). On the other scenario, conservative can control the decreasing of swamp forest (23.81%). The emission that produced Program Book 63

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 from land use change on the prediction of 2025 with conservative’s scenario was more lower than BAU’s scenario, where with BAU’s scenario was -711 234 ton CO2, while conservative’s scenario was -375 241 ton CO2. AGR-026 Analysis of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Using Standardized Precipitation Index and Vegetation Health Index. Ummu Ma'rufah*, Rahmat Hidayat, Indah Prasasti (Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Relationship between agricultural drought and meteorological drought was conducted by understanding their durations, spatial extents, severities and lag time of meteorological and agricultural drought during El Niño years. The data used in this study are monthly data of CHIPRS and MODIS. The result shows meteorological drought and agricultural drought intensified in the El Niño 2015. The duration of meteorological drought is regionally different and generally occurs during June to November while agricultural drought is from August to November. Spatially, meteorological drought and agricultural drought in 2015 has wider areal extent and higher severity (SPI &<-2 and VHI <10) than in El Niño 2002. Agricultural drought is generally intensified in Java, Bali, Lampung, southern part of Kalimantan and Sulawesi. We found that VHI significantly correlated with SPI-3 which means that agricultural drought leads meteorological drought about 3 months. AGR-027 Detection of Land Cover Change in Mine Environment. Suci Puspita Sari (Bangka Belitung University; [email protected]) Detection of land cover change is significant for planning and managing an area. The condition of an area should be analyzed to observe human activities that influence environment and thus it is important to simulate land cover changes. Land cover can be effectively monitored by remote sensing technique and GIS using multi-temporal satellite images. Multi-temporal satellite images analysis will be helpful to conceive the sequence patterns of land cover change and to detect the trend of changes. Supervised classification is applied to classify land cover type and calculate the changes of coverage area. Mining is one of human activity which its process causes land cover change. This study is intended to analyze the land cover change in Bangka Tengah due to mining activities. Landsat time series are used in this research during 18 years period (Landsat acquisitions are 1997, 2002 and 2015). Site area of this research is in Batu Belubang, Tanah Merah, Kedimpel and Tanjung Gunung. Field study shows change of land cover from vegetation cover into tin mining area and its post tin mining activity such as tailing area and an artificial lake known as kolong. Program Book 64

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 AGR-028 Analysis of Agricultural Drought in East Java Using Vegetation Health Index. Luisa Febrina Amalo*, Rahmat Hidayat, Sayidah Sulma (Department of Geophysics and Meteorology; Bogor Agricultural University; Indonesia; [email protected]) Drought is a natural hazard indicated by the decreasing of rainfall and water storage in the region and impacting agricultural sector. Agricultural drought assessment has been used to monitor agricultural sustainability, particularly in East Java as national agricultural production center. Identification of the drought characteristics associated with ENSO events, and agricultural impact on paddy fields and rice production in East Java using Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were conducted. VHI is a combination of two drought indices (i.e. TCI and VCI) derived from MODIS satellite data, LST and EVI respectively. The results show agricultural drought in East Java usually starts in June, maximum in October and end in November. Onset and endtime drought in East Java tend to follow monsoonal rainfall pattern. In El Niño 2015 shows long duration of agricultural drought (i.e. ±5 months), high severity (i.e. mild-extreme drought; VHI 0-40) and areal extent of 2 drought (i.e. ±197,343 km ) while during La Niña 2010 the area extent is only 2 ±28,685 km with mild-severe drought (VHI 10-40). Impact of agricultural drought on paddy fields show high and low drought areal extent in Subround 3 (September to Desember) and Subround 1 (January to April) respectively. Drought areal extent is highly correlated with rice production (r = -0.79) which significant in 99% level confidence. It explains that high rice production in Subround 1, while low rice production in Subround 3. AGR-029 Study of Vegetation Index from Phenology Corn Crop with UAV and Tetracam ADC SNAP Sensor (Field Study: BB Biogen, Bogor). Michael Vashni I R*, Abdi Sukmono, Ladju Gandharum (Department of Geodetic Engineering, Diponegoro University; [email protected]) Corn is a plant that is often planted by Indonesian farmer after paddy. Farming abilities in Indonesia country need to know how far Indonesian farming ability goes on, a method called precision agriculture or precision farming is needed to measure how far Indonesia farming ability goes. UAV technology is can be used to map in large scale. Now, UAV technology is combine with Tetracam ADC Snap sensor that have 3 band (NIR, Red and Green). Vegetation index is a calculation method to compute index from mapping data to identify vegetation. Vegetation index that we used are NDVI vegetation index and SAVI. The result of this study indicates that UAV can be used to analyze phenology vegetation. Spatial resolution that resulted from UAV mapping area between 5 cm until 7 cm. Calculation method of vegetation index NDVI and SAVI are can be used to indentify phenology from corn crop. The comparison of NDVI calculation result and SAVI calculation result are accurate with the real field. Program Book 65

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 AGR-030 Planning of Conservation Based of Local Wisdom on Land of Eroded at Sub District Kintamani Province Bali. Made Sri Sumarniasih*, Made Antara (Faculty of Agriculture, Udayana University; [email protected]) Location determination is based on the compilation of map of soil types, land use map and slope map. Uniformity of soil type, slope and land use are classified into one unit of land, so that there are 47 units of land to be point sample. Soil analysis conducted in the Laboratory Soil and Environment, the parameters analyzed were bulk dencity, texture, and organic materials. The aim of this research is to predicti on of erosion and planning of conservation soil and water based of local wisdom. Methodology, the erosion prediction used USLE method, erosion of tolerated (Ed) using the formula Hammer. The results of research showed that the erosion on lan d used in Subdistrict Kintamani from very light to very heavy. Very light and light e rosion occurs on paddy rice use and forest, while erosion of heavy to very heavy o ccurs on land use garden mixed, dryland and shrubs. Prediction of erosion decreas ed to very light with improved management of crops and land based on local wisd om namely land use intercropping of citrus with gumitir flowers, citrus plants inter cropped with coffe, citrus with horticulture and added plastic mulching. AGR-031 The Sustainability of Paddy Field in Subang Regency, West Java, as Analyzed Using Multi-Dimensional Scalling Approach. Widiatmaka*, Wiwin Ambarwulan, Irman Firmansyah, Paulus B.K. Santoso, Supiandi Sabiham (Dept. of Soil Science and Land Resources; Fac. of Agriculture; Bogor Agricultural University; Indonesia; [email protected]) The provision of this Indonesian staple food is still actually highly dependent on paddy fields in the Java Island. Actually, more than 50% of national rice production comes from paddy field in the island of Java, an island which area constitute less than 7% of Indonesian territory. There are high pressure on paddy field land utilization in Java Island. The objective of the study was to analyze the sustainability of the land utilization for paddy fields in Subang Regency, one of the Javanese center of production. The methodology used was sustainability analysis using multidimensional scaling (MDS) analysis, followed by a prospective analysis. The attributes analyzed include the attributes belonging to the ecological, economical, social, infrastructure and technology as well as legal and institutional dimensions. The data used come from the result of field survey, focus group discussion as well as secondary data. The results showed that land utilization for paddy fields in Subang Regency was actually less sustainable. Increasing the sustainability can be done through intervention on performance of several sensitive attribute resulting from leverage analysis. Several priority policies were established according to the key factors resulting from prospective analysis. Program Book 66

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 AGR-032 Comparison between Wavelet Transform and Moving Average as Filter Method of MODIS Imagery to Recognize Paddy Cropping Pattern in West Java. Kreshna Dwi Nugroho*, Singgih Pebrianto, Muhammad Arif Fatoni, Liyantono, Yudi Setiawan, Alvin Fatikhunnada (Faculty of Agricultural Technology, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Information on the area and spatial distribution of paddy field are needed to support sustainable agricultural and food security program. Mapping or distribution of cropping pattern paddy field is important to obtain sustainability paddy field area. It can be done by direct observation and remote sensing method. This paper discusses remote sensing for paddy field monitoring based on MODIS time series data. In time series MODIS data, difficult to direct classified of data, because of temporal noise. Therefore wavelet transform and moving average are needed as filter methods. The Objective of this study is to recognize paddy cropping pattern with wavelet transform and moving average in West Java using MODIS imagery (MOD13Q1) from 2001 to 2015 then compared between both of methods. The result showed the spatial distribution almost have same cropping pattern. However the accuracy of wavelet transform (75%) is higher than moving average (70%). Both methods showed that the majority of the cropping pattern in West Java have pattern paddy-fallow-paddy-fallow with various time planting. The difference of the planting schedule was occurs caused by the availability of irrigation water. AGR-033 Spatial Change Analysis of Paddy Cropping Patern Using MODIS Time Series Imagery in Central Java. Muhammad Arif Fatoni*, Kreshna Dwi Nugroho, Alvin Fatikhunnada, Liyantono, Yudi Setiawan (Faculty of Agricultural Technology; Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Central Java had the diverse paddy field utilization patterns and it was influenced by several factors such as water availability, land condition, paddy fields ownership, and local culture. The aim of research was to analyze paddy field utilization dynamic using MODIS imagery (MOD13Q1) from 2001 to 2015 based on temporal crop pattern. This research used k-means clustering algoritm for classified cropping pattern in Central Java based on similarity pattern of annual data from vegetation index. The result of this research classified cropping pattern become 12 main class and produced 15 annual maps of distribution cropping pattern. The result also divided Central Java’s paddy fields become 2 section (constant and change) based on cropping pattern that majority was caused by water availability. This research got the better acuracy (77.67%) of cropping pattern than long time series analysis from previous research. Although some classes successfully obtained upon annual time series analysis, MODIS still difficult to detect mixed cropping pattern. Program Book 67

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 AGR-034 Spatial Pattern of Urban Expansion along the Jakarta-Bandung Corridor. Yudi Setiawan*, Ernan Rustiadi, Andrea Emma Pravitasari, Setyardi Pratika Mulya (Center for Environmental Research, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) This paper introduces a spatial modeling for urban expansion on the Jakarta- Bandung Corridor considering neighborhood interactions between land use types and the change area. Then, these neighborhood characteristics used in logistic regression model to estimate the probability of the change events occurrence. Moreover, the future role of urban expansion is then projected using the Markov model based on the series land use maps. The results indicate that paddy rice, especially in upland areas has a high positive spatial auto-correlation with the change areas. Residential area, paddy rice, and upland have a high effect to the probability of urban expansion occurrence. Meanwhile, barren lands/dry land, bush-shrub and mixed garden give a negative impact to the change occurrences in agricultural lands. The future role of urban expansion was projected using the transition area and probability of Markov model. The accuracy of the model will be assessed through comparison the projection with the actual area in 2015. AGR-035 Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) Production Prediction Model Based on Priority Development Map (Case Study: East Seram Regency, Indonesia). Prima Jiwa Osly*, Widiatmaka, Bambang Pramudya, Kukuh Murtilaksono (Pancasila University; [email protected]) Agriculture is the main land use consumers in the world, extracting the physical resources of the earth is a direct threat to the ecological sustainability and diversity. In recent decades, there has been increasing concern about the ecological quality in relation to agriculture. Therefore it needs a direction to prioritize the sugarcane plantation development area and to predict the production for the priority fields. The goal is to design a sustainable sugar cane plantations model used to predict the outcome of the regional production. The method used to create a priority map is based on Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) method based on Analytical Hierararcy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS). Methods to predict the outcome of the production is using dynamic systems. Model of sustainable sugarcane plantation area is designed for a period of 60 years (2016-2076), predicted to produce maximum yield 189.73 tonnes/ha and a minimum of 95.04 tonnes/ha. Two scenarios were simulated based on Investment and Community. Simulations were performed on the investment scenario produces maximum output value amounted to 186.01 tonnes/ha and a minimum amount of 125.03 tonnes/ha with an average production of sugarcane at 152.64 tonnes/ha. Community scenario produces maximum output of 168.91 tonnes/ha and a minimum amount of 103.07 tonnes/ha with an average value of productivity amounted to 132.87 tonnes/ha. Program Book 68

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 AGR-036 A Simple Method for Estimating Surface Runoff from Land Use Change Using SCS Curve Number and Geographic Information System. Sri Malahayati Yusuf*, David Guluda, Trisumitra Jayanegara (Center for Environmental Research, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Land use is a form of interaction between man and land in order to fulfill their needs. If the human need increases, there will be competition in the use of land that would lead to changes in land use. Land use changes are affected by natural and human factors. Natural factors include soil, topography, climate, and natural disasters. While the human factor is considered as the most dominant factor in land use change because their activities are always trying to meet their needs. Changes in land use leads the changes in hydrological characteristics of the watershed (Pawitan 2006; Ministry of Agriculture Research Balitklimat 2007). So that, it is need to analyze the effect of land use change on surface runoff in a watershed. Study was conducted in Mapili Watershed, West Sulawesi using SCS Curve Number method that integrated with Geographic Information Systems. AGR-037 Fragmentation of Paddy Field on the Difference of Slope and Distance from City Center. Khursatul Munibah*, La Ode Syam, Ennie Dwi Wahyuni, Hermanu Widjaja (Department of Soil Science and Land Resource, Faculty of Agriculture, IPB; [email protected]) Paddy field is the agriculture land that produces rice and needs to be protected because of the threat of high conversion. In the period 2003-2013, paddy field in West Java Province has decreased by 9,098 ha, while all of Indonesia increased by 235,538 ha (BPS 2014) because of the new paddy field in outside Java.The paddy field located near the center city has the big potnsial to be fragmentated. The objectives are (1) analysis of fragmentation of irrigated and rainfed paddy field; (2) analysis of relationship between fragmentation index with slope and distance from city center. Fragmentation index that used in this research are Class Area (CA), Number of Patch (NP), Mean Patch Size (MPS), Patch Size Standard Deviation (PSSD), Mean Sharp Index (MSI). Distance between paddy field to city center is measured based on eucledian while the slope contructed from Topographic Map. The results showed that the rainfed paddy field in Cianjur Regency more fragmented than in irrigated paddy field showed with higher NP and MPS smaller. Fragmentations of irrigated paddy fields were affected by the proximity to the city center because of the potential to be converted. Fragmentation rainfed paddy field were more affected by the slope compared with the proximity to the city center. AGR-038 Spatial Dynamic Approach for Control Model of Rice Field Conversion in Citarum Watershed. Irman Firmansyah*, Widiatmaka, Bambang Pramudya, Sugeng Budiharsono (Study Programme of Management Natural Resources and Envronmental, PSL-IPB; [email protected]) Program Book 69

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 Rice fields are the producers of staple food – rice, for Indonesian. The width of rice fields has been decreasing continuously, because the pressure of non-agriculture land usage or the pressure of the farmers’ economy basic need. Other than as a producer of staple food, rice fields have multifunction benefits, like maintaining the stability of the hydrological functions Watershed (DAS), slow the rate of flow runoff causing flooding, decrease the erosion, food security, provision of nutrients, improvement of the climate, the habitat of flora and fauna, provide employment, providing a uniqueness and maintain the value -the value of rural culture. Java Island had the widest field for paddy, i.e. 3,231,377 ha or 39.83% as width as of the whole size of rice fields in Indonesia, which is 8,112,103 ha. West Java is in the third area width (11.40% or as width as 925,042 ha) after East Java and Central Java. Among the various provinces, West Java contributed the most to rice production result, namely 16.95% of the national rice production. On the other hand, from the perspective of rice field extention, West Java has the highest conversion of rice field with the average of 4,994.7 ha per year. Citarum watershed one of the production center in West Java which has the pressure. In 2000, width in this watershed is 161.028,89 ha, turned into 145,903.98 ha in 2012. This can also affect the water supply as the factor needed by the rice field. Dynamic system simulation result, show that the rate of paddy conversion is still high, if there is no special policy to protect it. The optimistic scenario showed that the rice fields decreased into 29,047.61 ha from 2009 to 2030. The moderate scenario became as much as 30,751.03 ha from 2009 to 2030. With this condition, the rice fields must be protected specifically, or they must be owned by the governement. Based on dynamical spatial analysis, rice fields in study area which are potential to converse in Karawang and Bandung Regencies. This is because Karawang Regency is the northern coast of the island of Java road in which many types of land transportation pass the road, while Bandung Regency is a travel lane. The width change based on the dynamic spatial result of paddy field in the research location will become 107,573.37 ha in 2030, or it will turn into 38,330.61 ha. Otherwise, the settlement areas that will become 95,035.69 ha, or will go up 41,665.70 ha from 2009 to 2030. AGR-039 Assessing the Ecological Status of the Cisadane River’s Headwaters Using Benthic Macroinvertebrates. Yunita Magrima Anzani*, Majariana Krisanti, Yusli Wardiatno (Master Program in Aquatic Resources Management; Graduate School of Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Benthic macroinvertebrate is commonly used in river health biomonitoring. The use of benthic macroinvertebrate biotic indices are now widely established in water quality monitoring around the world, a few biotic indices have been developed for the tropics. The aim of this study was to analyze ecological status of Cisadane River’s headwaters in inside and outside of Mount Halimun-Salak National Park by using biotic indices. The research was conducted in the headwaters of Cisadane River. One of the Cisadane River’s headwater is located in Mount Halimun-Salak National Park. Benthic macroinvertebrates were collected from four sites inside the park (station 1, 2, 3, and 4) and from two sites outside Program Book 70

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 the park (station 5 and 6). Collections were made twice a month, starting from April to June 2015 using Surber sampler (30x30 cm). A total of 65 genera from 38 families and 11 orders were found in the river. The results showed that based on LQI (Lincoln Quality Index), FBI (Family Biotic Index), and SIGNAL 2 (Stream Invertebrate Grade Number Average Level 2), stations located within national park were ecologically better than those outside national park. Rivers with well- preserved riverside vegetation, as in the national park area have greater ecological status. AGR-040 Applying New Approach on Spatial Clustering Method to Identify the Formation of Jakarta-Bandung Mega Urban Region. Ernan Rustiadi*, Andrea Emma Pravitasari, Setyardi Pratika Mulya, Yudi Setiawan (Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Jakarta megacity (Jabodetabek region) was reported by RIHN (2014) has been identified as the second largest megacity in the world in term of urban population aglomeration. Due to a continuing urban expansion, the foratmion of Jakarta- Bandung Mega Urban Region (JBMUR) as a result of connectedness and integration Jakarta megacity with Bandung metropolitan has been reported in some previous researches. This expansion has been converting prime agricultural land in the vicinity of this two metropolitans. In the context of regional development and spatial planning, the ability to control urban sprawl due to continuing urban expansion is determined by our ability to conduct an effective zoning techniques in a very dynamics and complex region. This study aims to implement a zoning technique based on Rustiadi’s spatial clustering method that has been developed by Rustiadi et al. (1999). In this case, zoning process is required to facilitate the regional management of JBMUR that spatially characterized by the expansion of urban areas and shrinking paddy fields. To manage JBMUR is not only to control urban expansion, but also to protect the agricultural land to ensure the food security for the nation. AGR-041 Analysis of Carbon Stock and Biodiversity Index at the Small Scale Agroforestry Landscape in Ciliwung Watershed. Mohamad Bagus Suryono Choliq, Regan Leonardus Kaswanto (Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Agriculture, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) The small scale agroforestry landscape or also called Pekarangan has sustainable functions to mitigate global climate change. In terms of economic, Pekarangan can supplies foods and nutrition; social, for building low carbon communities and increasing the environmental awareness; ecological, for providing landscape services such as carbon stock and biodiversity. Therefore, this research aims to analyze carbon stocks and biodiversity index of Pekarangan in Ciliwung Watershed. This study has measured 48 samples which were divided in three stream, namely upstream, midstream, and downstream. The samples were divided into four groups, G1 (Pekarangan size less than 120 m2 and doesn’t have other agricultural land (no other agricultural land - OAL), G2 (<120 m2 with OAL < Program Book 71

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 1000 m2), G3 (120-400 m2 with no OAL) and G4 (120400 m2 with OAL < 1000 m2). The results show that carbon stock value is between 0.13 to 27.15 Mg/ha and biodiversity index is around 0.77 to 2.51. The highest value of carbon stock is in midstream with averaged of 9.73 Mg/ha and the highest biodiversity index value is in downstream with averages of 2.00. On a regional scale, through satellite imagery, aggregated Pekarangan can be an alternative for mitigating climate change and modeling the food availability. AGR-042 Carbon Stock and Plants Biodiversity of Pekarangan in Cisadane Watershed West Java. Tatag Aisyah Filqisthi, Regan Leonardus Kaswanto (Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Agriculture, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) The climate change has caused the uncertainties in human life, which impacts the food security. The presence of vegetation in Pekarangan can be proposed to mitigate global climate change impacts by CO2 sequestration and at the same time to promote the availability of food for the community. Pekarangan is one of the small landscape agroforestry system that have functions in terms of economic, social, and ecological. Management of landscape services in pekarangan will reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, which mean create a low carbon society (LCS) that support the food security. The aims of this research is to calculate carbon stock and biodiversity in pekarangan, and to compare carbon stock and biodiversity on three levels of Cisadane Watershed. Four groups of Pekarangan defined on a purposive random sampling. Those four groups are G1 (Pekarangan size less than 120 m2 and doesn’t have other agricultural land (no other agricultural land - OAL), G2 (<120 m2 with OAL < 1000 m2), G3 (120-400 m2 with no OAL) and G4 (120-400 m2 with OAL < 1000 m2). Allometric models were developed to estimate aboveground biomass of vegetation, and an inventory was conducted in 48 pekarangan. Shannon Weiner Index (H’) and Margalef Index (Dm) are used to evaluate biodiversity, averaged 2,84 and 5,10 (G1); 2,55 and 4,27 (G2); 2,56 and 4,52 (G3); 2,68 and 4,84 (G4), while carbon stock averaged 33,20 Mg Carbon/ha (G1); 29,97 Mg/ha (G2); 59,18 Mg/ha (G3); and 40,98 Mg/ha (G4). There is no relationship between biodiversity with carbon stock on pekarangan (R2 = 0,02), or tree’s biodiversity with carbon stock (R2 = 0,23). High resolution satellite imagery can be used to extrapolate carbon stock and plants biodiversity of Pekarangan at watershed level. AGR-043 Land Use Cover Changes and Water Quality of Cipunten Agung Watershed Banten. Afifa Karima, Regan Leonardus Kaswanto (Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Agriculture, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) In general, the land and natural resources utilization of Cipunteng Agung Watershed could be classified into protected and cultivated region. Based satellite imagery classification, protected region covers 885.76 ha (22.71%), while Program Book 72

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 cultivated region occupied 3,041.69 ha (77.29%) in 2013. It means the land use and covers change (LUCC) to be cultivated is rapidly increase. Those conditions had impacted positively to the local economy development, however had negatively to degrade of water quality in Ciputen Agung river. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to analyze LUCC impacts to the water quality (WQ) in Ciputen Agung watershed. Supervised classification method and Water Pollution Index (WPI) approach were correlated to define the optimal solution to reduce the rate of LUCC. The imagery of Cipunten Agung watershed was classified into five classes, namely water bodies, forest, cultivated tree, settlement and paddy field. The result shows that area of cultivation tree and paddy field are higher than others in midstream, and settlement is higher in downstream, particularly at riparian landscapes. The LUCC into paddy field often occur at two periods from 1995 to 2005 and 2005 to 2015 with several areas are 530.92 ha and 388.17 ha. Meanwhile, WPI values at mid and downstream were lightly polluted with range 1.0 until 5.0. The concentration of total phospate, nitrite, and nitrate which indicated from agriculture land were complies with WPI class 2 until 4 standart. In contrary, the concentration of total coliform were slightly higher than permissable level recommended by Indonesian Government Decree No. 82/2001. The rate of LUCC of Cipunten Agung watershed and the density of settlement are potential to be the driving factor of water quality degradation. Regional planning with ecology approach was recommended for sustainable development of Cipunten Agung Wateshed. AGR-044 Identification of Potentially High Yielding Irradiated Cassava 'Gajah' Genotype with Different Geographic Coordinates. Isnani Subekti, Nurul Khumaida*, Sintho Wahyuning Ardie (Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, Faculty of Agriculture, Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), Jl. Meranti Kampus IPB Darmaga, Bogor; [email protected]) Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz.) is one of the main and important carbohydrate producing crops in Indonesia, thus cassava production and its tuber quality need to be improved. ‘Gajah’ genotype is a local genotypes cassava from -1 East Kalimantan, has high potential yield (> 60 ton Ha ) and the tuber has a good taste. However, the harvest time of this genotype is quite long (>= 12 months). The objective of this research was to identify the high yielding cassava mutants from the gamma rays irradiated 'Gajah' genotype at M1V3 population and potential yield at different location. Several putative cassava mutants (12 mutants) were planted in Cikabayan Experimental Field, IPB from March 2015 to March 2016 and the yields compared with the same genotype grown at different location by seeing its coordinates to observe the potential yield. Our result showed that the fresh tuber weight per plant of some putative mutants could reach more than -1 8 kg (yield potential of 64 ton Ha ). The harvested tubers also had sweet flavor, although the tubers of some putative mutants were bitter. Based on previous research study, the different geographic coordinate resulted variability on fresh tuber yield. It seems need to observe the stability of 'Gajah'- irradiated mutants in several location in Java Island. Program Book 73

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 AGR-045 Identification of Paddy Field using Landsat Image Implemented in Karawang Regency, West Java. Bambang Riadi*, Bambang Suriadi (Geospatial Information Agency, Jl. Raya Jakarta Bogor KM. 46 Cibinong; [email protected]) The Government of the Republic of Indonesia has a mission to achieve self- sufficiency in food in 2017, therefore it is necessary efforts to the stability of food needs. Karawang regency as a granary States have a vital role in maintaining the national rice self-sufficiency, so indispensable information wetland area. Wetland accurate mapping can be done with a fast and efficient method of using remote sensing technology. This study aims to identify the wetland using remote sensing technology. The data used is Landsat TM 2002 and Landsat-8 2015. The classification method using an approach Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Tasseled Cap Transformation (TCT). Based on the obtained NDVI image associated with gradation gray tone for vegetation. This method provides a high value Digital Number on vegetation. This method can be implemented to identify the fields that are still green or in the growing season. Transformation Tassled Cap produces three images of the six combinations, namely Brightness (BRT), greeness (GRN), and wetness (WET). BRT provides graytone gradation of non vegetation to water. The highest DN value indicates an object such as dry and vegetated roofs, open and dry soil, vegetated areas are very rare or dry rice fields up to DN lowest is the object of aquatic or marsh and wet rice land. GRN is indicated the gradation of vegetation cover, begin from densely vegetated until the most rare or non-vegetated areas. DN highest are green dense vegetated areas. While wetness (WET) indicates the area associated with the presence of water. Regions with high DN indicates the presence of water, and the lowest DN is a dry area. The main results of the classification is not a wetland and paddy. Based on existing data paddy land area of research area is ± 53% of the area of Karawang regency. CLIMATE (CLI) CLI 001 The Contribution of Mesoscale Convective Complexes to Rainfall over Indonesian Maritime Continent. Trismidianto*, Erma Yulihastin, Haries Satyawardhana, Jalu Tejo Nugroho, Sachinobu Ishida (National Institute of Aeronautics and Space, Jakarta, Indonesia; [email protected]) This study uses a database consisting of 1102 Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) during 2001-2015 to determine the contribution of MCCs to rainfall total over Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC). MCCs have been identified by infrared satellite imagery using an algorithm that combines criteria of cloud coverage, eccentricity, and cloud lifetime. The contribution of MCCs rainfall is expressed as the ratio of MCCs precipitation to the total rainfall at each grid point. Rainfall data set obtained from the Real Time Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission’s (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-RT) 3B41RT v7 measurements for period 2001 - 2015. The results of the study show that the highest value for contribution of MCCs to all of rainfall total during 15-years over IMC around 16- Program Book 74

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 22% that occur in the coastal region of Sumatra Island, Central Kalimantan and the valley of Jayawijaya Mountain. On average, the highest contribution of each season ranged between 24-33%. Most high contribution occurred on the mainland for every season except JJA that lot found over the Indian Ocean. On monthly, MCCs rainfall contributions around of 27-36% in all months with maximum contribution in March, April and October. CLI 002 Analysis of Evolution and Propagation of the Mesoscale Convective Complexes Accompanying Heavy Rainfall over Borneo Island and Surrounding Area. Trismidianto*, Erma Yulihastin, Haries Satyawardhana, Jalu Tejo Nugroho, Sachinobu Ishida (National Institute of Aeronautics and Space, Jakarta, Indonesia; [email protected]) This study analyzes the propagation of the mesoscale convective complexes (MCC) at five location frequent occurance of MCC during 2001-2015 over Borneo Island o o o o and surrounding area which covered area of 3 S- 1 N; 111 E-115 E (location 1), o o o o o o o o o o 2 N-6 N; 110 E-116 E (location 2), 3 S-0 S; 107 E-110 E (location 3), 3 S-1 S; o o o o o o 116 E-118 E (location 4) and 1 N-3 N; 115 E-118 E (location 5). MCCs were identified by infrared satellite imagery using an algorithm that combines criteria of cloud coverage, eccentricity, and cloud lifetime. The data used is a combination of satellite data, reanalysis and observation data. The study results confirm that the MCC at five location have evolution and propagation pattern almost the same in every location during 15-years. The new convective cell that generated by cold pool during of MCC decayed tend to propagated; southward toward the coastal sea and the Java sea (location 1), northward toward South China Sea (location 2), westward toward Eastern Sumatra and partly towards the mainland of Borneo (location 3), westward toward Eastern Kalimantan (location 4) and spread to surrounding areas (location 5). MCC's growth and propagation pattern also reflects the pattern of rain clouds system and convective activity, which reach peak rainfall during maximum phase of MCC even reach extreme rainfall. CLI 003 Propagation of Convective Complexes Systems Triggering Potential Flooding Rainfall of Greater Jakarta using Satellite Data. Danang Eko Nuryanto*, Hidayat Pawitan, Rahmat Hidayat, Edvin Aldrian (Research and Development Center, Indonesia Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG); [email protected]) A convective cloud system that large, long lived, and exhibits a quasi-circular cloud shield could be called a mesoscale convective complexes (MCC) system. These systems produce a wide variety of severe convective weather such as heavy rainfall. In 15 January 2013, Jakarta experienced an extraordinary heavy rainfall event. In this study, we examined the propagation of the convective complexes system that trigering heavy rainfall occurred in the Great Jakarta area, using observations from the Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT)-1R and the synoptic data. The convective complexes system developed from midnight on 14 January until the morning of 15 January, and it was intensified by the influence of Program Book 75

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 low-level westerly winds. There are two convective system developed during 14 – 15 January. First a convective systems were generated during the daytime of 14 January 2013 of northern Great Jakarta over Java Sea, and they propagate to the Northeast of Java Sea. Second a convective systems were generated during the nighttime of 14 January 2013 of over Sumatera, and they propagate to the Southeast through Java Sea until northern coast of Great Jakarta the morning of 15 January 2015. The second convective systems give heavy rainfall up to 10 mm/h average over the Great Jakarta area at 04.00 LT. CLI 004 Estimating Evaporation Based On Coupled Energy-Radiative Balance Model Using Landsat 8 Imageries (Case Study: Karawang, West Java, Indonesia). Aryo Adhi Condro (Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Evaporation is a physical process – through which, water from the earth surface is vapoured and transmitted to the atmosphere. In a water balance model, evaporation is considered as the water loss from the earth surface. Thus, estimating the amount of water loss due to evaporation is therefore very crucial, in order to further assess: (1) crops water demand; (2) crops water stress; and (3) other impacts of drought. Lysimeter is conventionally used for measuring evaporation on the field. However, since one lysimeter can only measure evaporation at one particular point of location; thus, in order to obtain and analyse evaporation data of a relatively large area, using lysimeter is therefore cost-inefficient. Hence, estimating evaporation on a large area using remotely sensed data should offer a more efficient approach. This study estimated evaporation using Landsat 8 imageries. Moreover, a coupled energy-radiative model was used to estimate evaporation, based on latent heat. The study was carried out in Karawang, one of major rice growing areas in West Java, Indonesia, thus spatial information on water demand of rice fields in this area is therefore very crucial. Findings of the study indicated daily potential evaporation in Karawang as observed on 15 August 2015 was ranging from 1.2 mm/day to 10.6 mm/day – which varied among various types of land cover, i.e. : water body, built- up area, and vegetation of about 6.6-10.6 mm/day, 4.3-7.7 mm/day, and 1.2-2.2 mm/day respectively. It suggests that each land cover has different surficial properties, functioning as constraining factors to evaporation. CLI 005 MJO Modulation on Diurnal Rainfall over West Java during Pre-Monsoon and Strong El Nino Periods. Erma Yulihastin (National Institute of Aeronautics and Space; [email protected]) This study was conducted to determine the MJO modulation on diurnal precipitation during the pre-monsoon and strong El Nino periods in 2015 over West Java. The data used is a combination of satellite data, reanalysis, radar, AWS, and numerical weather prediction of WRF with spatial resolution of 5 km. The results of the study confirm that the strong MJO in 4 and 5 phases has to modulate the amplitude of diurnal rainfall increase significantly over West Java in phase of lag+1. Modulation on diurnal cycle of rainfall is also indicated by the Program Book 76

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 persistence of the rain and the formation of two peaks of maximum rainfall in the afternoon and early morning. In addition, modulation of rainfall for the southern part of Java greater of 50% compared to the north. Moreover, the MJO modulation mechanism is characterized by the formation of an active and extends of Meso-scale Convective System (MCS) which has life cycle of up to 12 hours and persistent from 4 to 8 November over West Java. CLI 006 The Mapping Distribution Hotspot in Banjar Regency South Borneo. Kumalawati (Geography Education Program, Department of Social Education, Faculty of Teachers Training and Education, Lambung Mangkurat University; [email protected]) The objective of this research is to develop a mapping distribution hotspot in Banjar Regency, South Borneo. The tittle of this reaserch is “The Mapping Distribution Hotspot in Banjar Regency, South Borneo”. Purposive sampling technique was used to select the research area. The unit analysis are Banjar regency included in the land and forest fire. The result of the research shows the number of hotspots in every district in Banjar regency fairly evenly. Each land use hotspot is found except waters. CLI 007 Assimilation of Satellite Radiance Data Within The 3D-VAR at weather Research Forecasting (WRF) Model. Novvria Sagita*, Rini Hidayati, Rahmat Hidayat, Indra Gustari (Indonesia Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG); [email protected]) Limitation of directly weather observation data is one cause inaccuracy in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The Inaccuracy of WRF model is due to by the incompatibility of initial condition model with the actual atmospheric conditions. One technique to improve initial condition model is the data assimilation. The method used in this research is the method Three Variational Dimensional (3D-Var). The data using for the data assimilation is the weather observation data parameter directly and satellite radiation data from AMSU-A, HIRS, and MHS sensor. The purpose of this study was to compare the radiation data assimilation with AMSU-A sensor, HIRS, and MHS. The results of this study indicate assimilation radiation data from AMSU-A sensor provides a significant difference initial condition model rather than assimilation radiation data from sensors HIRS and MHS. Equitable Threat Score (ETS) rainfall forecast 12-hour increasing from 0.26 (without a data assimilation) to 0.83 (with radiance data assimilation). Program Book 77

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 CLI 008 Spatial Model of Dengue Fever Hazard in Kudus Regency Using Fuzzy Logic. Trida Ridho Fariz (Semarang state University; [email protected]) Dengue Fever is a tropical infectious diseases which often cause epidemic in Indonesia. Kudus Regency is one of the area which every years increased extremly Dengue Fever distribution. The one of act for prevention and controlling of Dengue Fever is build a hazard mapping of this disease. The purpose of this research is build a spatial modelling of Dengue Fever hazard with fuzzy logic. This modeling is built from determinant hazard level indicators of Dengue Fever like rainfall index, settlement density, land elevation and water supply. Analisys used fuzzyfication then fuzzy overlay with operators are: AND, OR, SUM, PRODUCT, GAMMA-0.5 and GAMMA-09. The best result is a Overlay PRODUCT with correlation value of 0.57 and defuzzyfication area with high level of Dengue Fever hazard are Jati District, Kudus District and partially of Bae District dan Kaliwungu District. Conclussion from this research, fuzzy logic is pretty good for build spatial modelling of Dengue Fever hazard in Kudus Regency, other than that model still needs to be tested accuracy in modelling of Dengue Fever hazard in other places. Indicators of modelling also can be added so model can represents process with better. This study evaluates spatial distributions of heavy rainfall over Java Sea region based on wet season conditions; namely, December January February (DJF). Rainfall data set obtained from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) measurements for period 1998 - 2013. Heavy rainfall is represented by amount of rainfall maximum. Diurnal cycles of rainfall features present that the development and movement of convective rainfall is mainly related to the land and sea breezes. The evolution of hourly rainfall at 3 hourly intervals, illustrates a clear diurnal variation over Java Sea region. From 22 WIB to 10 WIB the large average rainfall mainly located in the Java Sea. Then from 13 WIB to 19 WIB the large average rainfall mainly located in the inland. While from 10 WIB to 13 WIB the large average rainfall located in both the Java Sea and the inland. And from 19 WIB to 22 WIB the large average rainfall located in coastwise. This situation have agreement with the formation of its maximum and standard deviation in diurnal cycles. The daily convective rainfall in the inland region is much more than that in the sea region, but heavy rainfall is often found over the sea. CLI 009 Estimation of River Based Transportable Volcanic Material Distribution Based on Satellite DEM and Precipitation Data. Andre Wisoyo*, Santosa Sandy Putra (Barunadri Engineering Consultant; [email protected]) Satellite imaginary taken after volcano eruption situation usually used for deposited volcanic material mapping. Rainfall events will erode the deposited material by gravity and transport some amount of it through the river as a lahar flow. The river authority needs the estimation of transportable volcanic material distribution around the river on the volcano slope in order to map the lahar risk distribution. This paper explore a new method for estimating the transportable material distribution into the volcano watershed based on hydrology characteristic of the watershed. The proposed method implement satellite based rainfall data Program Book 78

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 and DEM. The rainfall pattern from the satellite based precipitation data will be analyzed to generate rainfall sediment transport potential value for each watershed. The watershed terrain also investigated to see the percentage of the deposited material that is hydrologically latent to be transported into each individual watershed. Based on the case study of 2015 Mt. Marapi, West Sumatera, Indonesia, the transportable volcanic material of the major rivers that are up streamed in the top of volcano is calculated. This result can be an alternative for Sumatera 5 river authority for sediment control infrastructure planning around the Mt. Marapi area. CLI 010 The Phenomenon of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Its Influence on the Concentration of Chlorophyll-a in a Sea of the West Sumatra and South Java. R Marianto Tri Yuda*, Mega Laksmini Syamsudin, Lintang Permata Sari Yuliadi, Martono (Padjajaran University; [email protected]) This research aims to study on the phenomenon of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and their impact on the level of chlorophyll-a concentration in the waters of South West coast of Sumatra and Java. Value Dipole Mode Index (DMI) index is obtained from the difference between the SST anomalies in the western Indian Ocean to the eastern part of the Indian Ocean. Based on DMI chart can be seen that the phenomenon of IOD (+) occurred in 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2015. For the IOD (-) occurred in 2010, 2013, and 2014-2015. IOD value (+) was highest in the month of August 2012 with a value of 1.05 and IOD value (-) occurred in September 2010 with the value of the index reached -0.87 so that it can be categorized IOD low intensity. In the span of years 2008-2015, IOD tends to occur in east monsoon season to the second transition. These phenomena have a significant impact on the current phase of positive IOD in the waters south of Java. At the time value of DMI stronger (0.4°C) value of chlorophyll-a concentration increased significantly, reaching 0.5-5 mg/L in the span of those months and followed a decline SPL reaches 0.6-1.7°C. For in the waters west of Sumatra, on a positive IOD phase during happens increased concentrations of 0.5-0.8 mg/L in 2011 and 2015 but was followed by a decrease SST reach 0.6-1°C. IOD phenomenon affects the intensity of chlorophyll-a concentration, but not entirely caused because of the range of 2008 to 2015 the value of its DMI average below one. CLI 011 Water Allocation for Agriculture Complex Terrain under Changing Climate. I Putu Santikayasa*, Perdinan, Rizki Abdul Basit (Dept. Geophysic and Meteorology; Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Currently Indonesia facing a serious issue related to water scarcity. The current situation required Indonesia government to pay more attention on water resources management to allocate water to different water users. Agriculture as the highest water demand in the country need better water management under decreasing water availability as impact of future changing climate. While if it may require to integrate the climate change into water resources policy and Program Book 79

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 management, it is appropriate to examine the impacts of climate change on water allocation. Agropolitan in Malang district, East Java–Indonesia is an agriculture characterized by complex agricultural system and was assigned as a case study. The supply-demand water allocation approach was applied on how water is allocated to the water users (agriculture, domestic and industries) under current and future climatic condition. Both climate and the changing nature of water demand have affected the development and evolution of water allocation. On the supply side, it is expected the water supply to decrease under future climate comparing with the current condition. Analysis of the water allocation is used to identify factors that may affect to the uncertain impacts of future climate on water availability and water demands. It results the need of incorporated the future climate information on design the future water policy and management to reduce the adverse impact of changing climate. This study also suggested the policy actions as recommendation to better manage current climate variability as well as future uncertainty from climate change impacts on water allocation and resources management. CLI 012 Spatial Variability of Climate Types over Crop Production Growing Regions. Perdinan*, Engggar Yustisi Arini, Ryco Farysca Adi, Annisa Arifah, Endah Kurniasih (Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected] ) Climate fluctuation plays a critical role in dictating crop production. Spatial variability of climate information over a crop-growing region can provide information on understanding the relation between the differences in climate types and crop production potential. An approach to understand spatial variability of climate condition within a region is the utilization of climate regionalization that is applied to climate data such as rainfall to distinguish differences in the pattern and magnitude (characteristics) of rainfall over a region. However, the application of climate regionalization poses a critical issue in Indonesia considering the availability of climate data for a region. Recent advances in satellite and reanalysis data measuring climate variability over a large area provided an opportunity to apply climate regionalization techniques to distinguish spatial variability of climate types in a region. Hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering techniques are the two common approach employed for the climate regionalization. Using the West Java as the case study, the climate regionalization techniques are applied to map spatial variability of climate types based on rainfall data recorded by climate stations (point based analysis) and estimated by modeled/reanalysis data and satellite. The application reveals that West Java can be divided into 4 to 8 climate types, with differences in climate types following north- south and west direction. Comparison the climate regionalization with the Oldeman classification map explains that there is a little bit differences in the central area of West Java, which the climate regionalization reveals more detail spatial climate types in the central area. Program Book 80

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 CLI 013 Characteristics of Kelvin Waves and Mixed Rossby-Gravity Waves in the Tropical Lower Stratosphere in Opposite QBO Phases. Nur Zaman Fathullah*, Sandro W. Lubis, Sonni Setiawan (Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) A 35-year satellite data assimilation from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model has been used to analyze the characteristics of Kelvin waves and mixed Rossby-gravity waves by using Space-Time Spectral Analysis (STSA) technique. Our results show that Kelvin wave activity is stronger during easterly QBO phases, while mixed Rossby-gravity waves are stronger during westerly phase of the QBO in the lower stratosphere. Analysis on seasonal variations indicates that Kelvin waves and Rossby-Gravity waves are strongly observed in JJA and SON, respectively, as a result of the variation in basic mean flow in the lower stratosphere and also by convection activity over the Pacific warm pool. Our results also reveal that both of these waves have a lower phase speed in the troposphere as a consequence of the coupling with convection. In addition, the variations of Kelvin and Rossby-Gravity waves in the troposphere are not significantly affected by the phase of QBO. This result is agreement with the theory that the variations of equatorial waves in the lower troposphere are mainly controlled by convective process. This result helps to improve the prediction skill of the tropical tropospheric weather via interaction between QBO and the equatorial waves. CLI 014 Evaluation of Surface Salinity Bias of CMIP5 Models in the Indian Ocean. Ibnu Fathrio*, Atsuyoshi Manda, Satoshi Iizuka, Ishida Sachninobu (Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space; Meteorological Laboratory, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Hirosaki University; [email protected]) th Prior to future climate assessment in the 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) experiments, how well CMIP5 models simulates present climate should be examined. Equally important to sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity (SSS) plays important role in ocean stratification and indirectly affects air sea interaction. However, few studies have been carried out to evaluate SSS in CMIP5 models. In this present study, performance of CMIP5 models in simulating SSS in Indian Ocean is examined with respect to the observation. Our results show that multi model ensemble (MME) mean of CMIP5 models displays annual and seasonal salinity bias in three regions: Western Indian Ocean (WEIO), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and Southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO). Biases in WEIO and BOB are mainly attributed to bias in precipitation. CMIP5 models overestimate (underestimate) precipitation in WEIO (BOB) during Boreal summer to winter. Meanwhile, advection process is responsible for negative SSS bias in SEIO. Our results suggest that CMIP5 models needs to be improved in both atmospheric and ocean simulation in order to minimize the biases. Program Book 81

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 CLI 015 Intraseasonal Rainfall Variability in North Sumatra and Its Relationship with Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO). Desiana Nurussyifa, Akhmad Faqih* (Department Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) The Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) is a mode of climate variability on intraseasonal timescales that dominantly occurs during the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon. Its propagation and activity can be monitored by using indices namely as BSISO1 and BSISO2. The phenomenon could affect daily rainfall anomalies and extreme rainfall in some regions, including in Indonesia. The rainfall anomalies and extremes in North Sumatra may be potentially affected by BSISO due to its location within the path of BSISO propagation. This study analyzes the relationship of BSISO with daily rainfall anomalies and extremes during different phases and types of BSISO. Spectral analysis was conducted to identify dominant periods of BSISO indices and daily rainfall. It is shown that there is an agreement in the periodicity of BSISO1 and daily rainfall, especially on 50-60 days oscillation periods. This study also identifies extreme rainfall during different phases of BSISO, showing that the extreme rainfall increased during both BSISO1 and BSISO2. Extreme rainfall beyond 90th and 95th percentile thresholds were found in the whole phase of BSISO1 and BSISO2, while the extreme rainfall above 99th percentile threshold were found only in phase 3 of BSISO1 and phase 2 and 5 of BSISO2. Composite analysis conducted separately for spatial daily rainfall anomalies and its standard deviations were also performed in this study. The results found BSISO influences on rainfall variability in North Sumatra especially during phase 2 and 3 of BSISO1, and phase 1 and 2 of BSISO2. CLI 016 Observed and Blended Gauge-Satellite Precipitation Estimates Perspective on Meteorological Drought Intensity over South Sulawesi, Indonesia. Amsari Mudzakir Setiawan*, Yonny Koesmaryono, Akhmad Faqih, Dodo Gunawan (Department Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) South Sulawesi Province as one of the rice production center for national food security are highly influenced by climate phenomenon that lead to drought condition. This paper quantifies meteorological drought based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) as one of the extreme indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The indices were calculated by using (i) quality controlled daily and monthly observational precipitation data from 45 weather stations of various record lengths within 1971-2015 periods, and (ii) 0.05° x 0.05° blended gauge- satellite of daily and monthly precipitation estimates of the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset. Meteorological drought intensity represented by Average Drought Intensity (ADI) from three-month SPI (SPI3) show spatial differences characteristic between eastern and western region. Program Book 82

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 Longest Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) period and lowest SPI3 value occurred especially during strong El Niño years. CLI 017 Impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Global Distribution of Total Water Vapor and Column Ozone in the Tropics. Irvan Fathurochman*, Sandro W. Lubis, Sonni Setiawan (Department Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is characterized by intraseasonal atmospheric circulation that is coupled with large-scale convection in the tropics. In this study, total precipitable water (TPW) and total column ozone (TCO) datasets from satellite data assimilation in ECMWF model (ERA-Interim) were used to analyze the impact of the MJO on the distribution of water vapor and column ozone in the tropics from 1979 to 2013. Intraseasonal MJO signal was isolated by applying a Butterworth-bandpass filter technique with period of 20-90 days. The results show that seasonal variations of TPW modulated by the MJO maximize in the tropics of about 10°-20° latitude, while variation in TCO maximizes in the mid latitudes of about 30° - 40° during boreal winter. The composite analysis also showed that the MJO modulates TPW and TCO anomalies eastward. The underlying mechanism of the MJO’s impact on TPW is mainly associated with tropical convection modulated by the MJO, while the underlying mechanism of the MJO’s impact on TCO is mainly associated with an intraseasonal variability of tropopause height modulated by the MJO activity. This knowledge helps to improve the prediction skill of the intraseasonal variation of water vapor and column ozone in the tropics during boreal winter. CLI 018 Strong BSISO Indices and Their Relationships with Thunderstorms and Daily Rainfall Intensities in Sumatra. Nisrina Rohadatul Aisy, Akhmad Faqih* (Department Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) This study aims to identify the patterns of thunderstorms events and rainfall intensity in Sumatra during strong phases of Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (BSISO). Data of thunderstorm events were obtained from synoptic weather station reports, while daily rainfall intensities were obtained from CHIRPS version 2.0 dataset. Composite analysis of thunderstorms and rainfall intensity during strong BSISO phases were conducted in this study. The result showed that the number of thunderstorm events were averagely high during phases 1 and 2 of BSISO1. BSISO1 dominates over Equatorial Indian Ocean (phase 1) and over Indian Ocean and East Asia (phase 2) with spatial coverage of the affected areas could reach western part of Indonesia, especially over Sumatra. It is found that in several locations the number of thunderstorm events may averagely reach; 24 times during active phase 1 and 2 of BSISO1. Significant correlations between thunderstorms and strong BSISO1 index at different phases during May-October were found in phase 1 and 2 (r=0.41 and 0.20), along with strong correlations Program Book 83

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 during phase 3 and 4 (r=0.53 and 0.40). In addition, correlation analysis also showed significant correlations between thunderstorm events and strong BSISO2 at phase 2 (r=0.34) and 3 (r=0.30). In relations to the mean daily rainfall intensities, this study also found their significant correlations with strong BSISO1 and BSISO2 indices, both during phase 1, 2 and 3, with r=0.28, 0.23 and 0.32, respectively for BSISO1 index, and with r= 0.36, 0.20 and 0.40, respectively for BSISO2 index. CLI 019 Simulated Ocean Circulation and Upwelling Dynamics during ENSO Episode (2009-2011). Agus S. Atmadipoera (Bogor Agricultural University, Darmaga, Bogor 16680, Indonesia; [email protected]) Banda Sea (BS) is a deep and large ocean basin in interior Indonesia Seas that plays a significant role on regulating ocean dynamics and regional climate variability such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), since BS functions as “'temporary reservoir” for Indonesian Throughflow pathways before exiting into Indian Ocean, as well as seasonal alternating upwelling/downwelling region. The objective of present study is to investigate surface ocean circulation and associated upwelling anomaly during normal (2008), El Nino (2009/2010), and La Nina (2010/2011) events in Banda Sea, using data sets from validated INDESO ocean general circulation model. The results show that surface circulation in BS is regulated by both local forcing of monsoon winds and Indonesia Throughflow (ITF) inflow via Flores Sea (FS), Lifamatola Strait, and Halmahera-Seram Sea. Inflow from FS is drastically increased during northern winter and La Nina periods, where a transient anti-clockwise eddy with radius of about 290 km is also devopped in southwestern BS. The uppwelling event occurs along the islands arc on eastern edge of BS with the Ekman transport direction southwestward with magnitude of kinetic energy is above 10 joule. The Ekman layer depth in BS is about 60 m. During El Nino event surface circulation is much stronger, causing Ekman layer shallower due to increased Ekman transport and upwelling intensity. CLI 020 Impact of ENSO on Seasonal Variations of Kelvin Waves and Mixed Rossby- Gravity Waves. Saeful Rakhman*, Sandro W. Lubis, Sonni Setiawan (Department Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) NOAA satellite measurement of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) was used to study the characteristics of atmospheric equatorial Kelvin waves and mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves as well as their relationships with the tropicals convection activity associated with ENSO. Identification of Kelvin waves and MRG waves was analyzed by using a Space-Time Spectral Analysis (STSA), where the differences in the strength of both waves were quantified by taking the spectrum differences for each El Nino and La Nina years. Our results show that Kelvin waves are strongly observed during an El Nino years, whereas as the MRG waves are stronger during the La Nina years. Seasonal variations of Kelvin wave activity is strongly observed during MAM in El Nino years, while the seasonal variation of Program Book 84

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 MRG wave activity is strongly observed in MAM and SON La Nina years. Strengthening the Kelvin wave and MRG wave activities during particular season is influenced by the variation in tropical convection induced by SST increase in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. The results revealed in this study are important not only for weather forecasting in the troposphere but also for stratospheric behavior. CLI 021 Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific during Strong Phases of Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (BSISO). Dara Fiyanka Khairunisa, Akhmad Faqih* (Department Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere predominantly occurs in the summer or early autumn, which is possible to coincide with convective activity of Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (BSISO) during May to October. This study examined the influence of BSISO on the formation and characteristics of tropical cyclone in the Western North Pacific (WNP) region. Composite analysis and regression analysis were performed for analyzing the characteristics of tropical cyclones during strong phases of BSISO when the indices >1.5. During 2002-2011 periods, BSISO phenomenon was found to have relation with the formation of tropical cyclones in the WNP region. Strong phases of BSISO1 and BSISO2 coincided with 82% and 59% of total tropical cyclones in this region, respectively. This study found that the magnitude of the BSISO indices were not always followed by the increase of tropical cyclone formation in every phase. Dominant characteristic found during strong phases of both BSISO indices were the formation of tropical storms and tropical cyclones of category 2, which have moderate level of damages with the shortest lifetime is 8 days and the longest is 21 days. BSISO1 has been linked to high-intensity of tropical cyclone (category 4), which has 12 days of lifetime and would caused extreme damages. CLI 022 Upwelling in Banda Sea and Along the Southern Coast of Java. Herlina Ika (Department Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Upwelling analysis is identified from ekman pumping calculation which shown by using climatological satellite data, wind surface and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and ocean color. Chlorophyll-a concentration di Banda Sea maximum during southeast monsoon (JJA) and minimum during northwest monsoon (DJF). Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and ekman pumping are also has same pattern with the chlorophyll-a consentration. It’s indicated the upwelling process. Higher chlorophyll-a consentration found in southern coast of Java. Chlorophyll-a concentration in southern coast of Java increases during southeast monsoon (JJA), maximum in SON periode and and minimum during northwest monsoon (DJF). Ekman pumping and chlorophyll-a consentration are higher during southeast monsoon (JJA to SON) in comparison to those during the northwest monsoon (DJF). Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is lower during southeast monsoon (JJA) to Program Book 85

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 those during the northwest monsoon (DJF). Upwelling occurs in Banda Sea and along southern coast of Java dominanly is a response to regioulation nal wind driven motion associated with the monsoon climate. CLI 023 Atmospheric stability and extreme rainfall and its relation to the risk of flooding in Jakarta. Yon Sugiarto*, Reni Sulistyowati, Dwi Rachmawati (Department Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Indonesian maritime continent is a region with an active atmospheric physics processes that contribute to the various weather and climate extremes phenomena such as high intensity rainfall which could increase the threat and risk of flooding. As the capital city of Indonesia, Jakarta is still under threat of flooding that occurred during the peak of the rainy season on December through February. In Jakarta, flooding can occur due to local high intensity rainfall as well as runoff from the upstream Ciliwung watersheed. Analysis of atmospheric parameters is conducted to assess the stability of the upper atmosphere in the upstream area of the Ciliwung watersheed and diurnal variation during the peak period of the rainy season in Jabodetabek. Atmospheric parameters was derived from rawisonde data using The Universal RAwinsonde OBservation program (RAOB). Atmospheric stability conditions that affect the formation of clouds and precipitation validated with hourly rainfall data observed at a weather station in Citeko and Dramaga. During the peak period of the rainy season in February, the atmospheric conditions are relatively stable except for the 9th and 18th of February. High- intensity rainfall occurred between noon till late afternoon which is associated with the movement of air masses from the gulf coast of Jakarta to the highland area around Bogor. The analysis showed that flooding in Jakarta and its surroundings that occurs during the peak rainy season is due to their local extreme rainfall as the main cause and not always related to water runoff from upstream Ciliwung waterseheed in Bogor. CLI 024 Shierary-Rice: a Crop Modeling Model to Predict Rice Development and Growth. Handoko (Department Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Crop development and its growth of rice crop are correlated each other and affected by climatic factors. Air temperature is the varible mostly affects crop development which subsequently determines partition of assimilates to varying organs. Lower temperature will cause slower crop development which in the model (Shierary-rice) predicted by Heat Unit concept. On the other, crop development is detemined by temperature and also other climatic factors such as solar radiation, relative humidity, rain and wind speed. In this approach, the crop is only determined by climatic approach. Water-balance submodel was then introduced to crop growth submodel to make the model more realictic. In this water-balance approach the crop limiting factor (fw=Ta/Tm) was introduced. Program Book 86

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 CLI 025 Multi-criteria Analysis for Delineating Landslide Hazard in Banjarnegara, Central Java. Widiatmaka*, Risky Ramadhan, Untung Sudadi (Department of Soil Science and Land Resources, Faculty of Agriculture; Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia; [email protected]) In the context of climate and geology, Indonesia is a country with high natural hazard including landslide. This research was done in Banjarnegara Regency, one of the Central Java Province’s regency with high potency for landslides. During the period 2003-2015, 39 times of landslide with 189 victims has been occurred in this area. The objective of the study was to identify the factors controlling the distribution of landslide hazard and delineate the areas with different levels of hazards. The methodology used was spatial multi-criteria analysis integrating geographic information system and remote sensing. Controlling factor for landslides were identified based on expert interviews in an analytical hierarchy process steps. The controlling factors include slope, rainfall, soil type, lithology, land form and land utilization. Delineation of the areas of landslides hazards were done through weighted overlay in geographic information system. Validation were done using the official data as well as field survey. The results of the study indicate that the study area could be classified into several area with different levels of landslide hazard. The results of this study can be used as an input for improvement of official spatial land use plans in order to mitigate the landslide hazard. CLI 026 Prototype of the Mexican Spatial Data Infrastructure for Climate Raster Models Based on Satellite Imagery (VISTA-C). Stephane Couturier*, Javier Osorno Covarrubias, Victor Magaña Rueda, Ivan Martinez Zazueta, Gustavo Vazquez Cruz (Geography Institute, UNAM (National Autonomous University of Mexico); [email protected]) In the face of climatic uncertainty and related impacts on agricultural yields, there is a growing need for public institutions of subtropical countries to access highly (or as highly as can be) reliable meteorological models and effectively transmit a representation of their results to stakeholders in agriculture. In spite of this situation, the use of satellite imagery in Mexico for climate applications remains largely limited to visual assessment. Recently, a project developed by the Institute of Geography at UNAM university, and financed by the National Institute for Geography and Statistics, consisted in the development of a climate monitoring system, which includes three main features: 1) the acquisition of satellite imagery though the ERISA receiving station, 2) a climate modeling module based on successive error corrections of raster maps derived from the received imagery, and 3) the development of an online spatial data infrastructure based on Geonode technology. We illustrate the innovative characteristics of the platform (e.g. the inclusion of satellite images in the climate model and the extension of Geonode to raster images) which has been released and will contribute to the production of regional data for the Geonetcast America network, part of the global GEOSS infrastructure. Program Book 87

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 CLI 027 Future Rainfall Variability in Indonesia under Different ENSO and IOD Composites based on Decadal Predictions of CMIP5 Datasets. Harisa Bilhaqqi Qalbi, Akhmad Faqih*, Rahmat Hidayat (Department Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are amongst important climate drivers that play significant role in driving rainfall variability in Indonesia, especially on inter-annual timescales. The phenomena are also suggested to have association with inter-decadal climate variability through the modulation of their oscillations. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of future rainfall variability in Indonesia during different condition of ENSO and IOD events based on decadal predictions of near-term climate change CMIP5 GCM data outputs up to year 2035. Monthly data of global rainfall data with 5 km x 5 km grid resolutions of the Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset is used in this study to represent historical rainfall variability as well as to serve as reference for future rainfall predictions. The current and future rainfall and sea surface temperature data have been bias corrected before performing the analysis. Given the comparison between rainfall composites during El-Nino and positive IOD events, the study showed that the future rainfall conditions in Indonesia will become drier than the historical condition resulted from the same composite approach. In general, this study showed that the Indonesian rainfall variability in the future is expected to respond differently on different combination of ENSO and IOD conditions. CLI 028 Ecosystem Change Projection Study of Lombok Island Using Climate Scenario RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Saputri Sapta*, Akhmad Faqih, Bambang Sulistyantara, Indung Sitti Fatimah (Bogor Agricultural University, Darmaga, Bogor 16680, Indonesia; [email protected]) Lombok Island has various topography and surrounded by coastal area which indirectly affect ecosystem characteristics in many areas of Lombok Island. It is also located on the edge of the Wallace line indicating the ecological transition between the continents of Asia and Australia to form a distinctive diversity. Lombok Island is categorized as a small island, which makes it susceptible to climate change and may lead to ecosystem change. The objective of this study was to analyse the projection of ecosystem changes using climate scenarios. The methods used include climate data analysis using historical and projection data, and ecosystem zone analysis using Holdridge Life Zones classification system. Ecosystem zones projection for future periods were analysed based on two climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) which are RCP 4.5 as moderate scenario and RCP 8.5 as extreme scenario. Both scenarios are used for the comparison of the possibility of changes in ecosystems that may occur in future periods. Based on projection analysis, some of ecosystem zones are expected to change in five locations of study area. The ecosystem zone Program Book 88

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 changes that may occur can be a threat to the life of species on the Lombok Island. The results could be a basis for further study of the species vulnerability specifically to keep species that could be threatened due to ecosystem changes. CLI 029 Impacts of La Niña and La Niña Modoki on Indonesian Rainfall VariabilityImpacts of La Niña and La Niña Modoki on Indonesian Rainfall Variability. Maharani Dwi Juniarti*, Rahmat Hidayat (Department Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Impact of La Niña and La Niña Modoki on Indonesian rainfall variability has been conducted. These two events influence rainfall variability in Indonesia. In this study we found that Nino 3.4 index is highly correlated (r = -0.8) with Indonesian rainfall. During La Niña, positive rainfall anomalies (about 200 mm/month) occurred in most of Indonesian region, but on Desember-January-February (DJF) negative rainfall anomalies are found at several areas of Sumatera, Kalimantan and eastern part of Indonesia. In La Niña Modoki events, positive rainfall anomalies (50 mm/month) occurred in several area of Sumatera, Kalimantan, Java and eastern Indonesia (DJF) and up to 175 mm/month in Java Island in March – April - May (MAM) season. During La Nina strong cooling SST in central and eastern equatorial Pacific (-1.5°C) in DJF. Meanwhile, warming SST occured in western and eastern equatorial Pacific (0.75°C) and cooling SST in central Pacific (- 0.75°C) in DJF and MAM during La Niña Modoki. La Niña and La Niña Modoki events show strong convergence over the western Pacific (Indonesia) during DJF. However, only La Niña Modoki events show strong convergence over the western Pacific (Indonesia) during MAM. CLI 030 IPB Green Transportation Model for CO Emission. Taufiq Yuliawan*, Ana Turyanti, Hartrisari Hardjomidjojo (Center for Environment Research, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Our transportation system uses oil for vehicle fuel. Oil fuel usage in our transportation system gives big amount of carbon emission. 23% of carbon emission was from gasoline and coal usage, and 75% of that was emitted by road transportation, and over 90% of vehicles on our transportation uses oil fuel. Bogor Agricultural University want to reduce their carbon emission with Green Transportation System. IPB Green Transportation Model for Emission can simulate the CO emission for some scenario of transportation system planning. This model use distance as spatial variables. From this model, first scenario can reduce more than 36% CO emission, second scenario is about 40%, and third scenario is about 65%. Program Book 89

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 CLI 031 Westerly Wind Bursts and Their Relationship with EL-Nino Events. M. Dinulhaq HS*, Rahmat Hidayat (Department Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Westerly Wind Burst (WWBs) are defined as synoptic-scale atmospheric disturbance and characterized by westerly winds event which have speed greater than 5 m/s, exist near the equator for more than 2 days. WWBs considered to be one of the triggers in the physical processes of El Nino. The identification of WWBs characteristics is important to assess the relationship between WWBs and El Nino events. Analysis of zonal and meridional wind, sea surface temperature (SST), and Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) data were conducted. During period of 1981 to 2015, 173 WWBs events were detected with various wind speeds ranging between 5-10 m/s spreading from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean. The highest frequency of WWBs were detected in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Nino 3.4 region) i.e. 102 and 64 events respectively, while in the western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, WWBs found only 4 and 3 events. Number of WWBs event is significantly correlated with El Nino events. The composite analysis of zonal wind and SST in three El Nino events (i.e. 1982-1983, 1991-1992, 1997-1998) shows that WWBs is detected about 3 to 4 months before mature phase of El Nino events (November to January). The correlation between the WWBs frequency and ONI is 0.51 which significant at 99% confidence level. It is implies that frequency occurence of WWBs increased when El Nino is intensified. CLI-032 Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Rainfall over West Java. Rahmat Hidayat*, Murni Ngestu Nur’utami (Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, Bogor Agricultural University (IPB); [email protected]) Rainfall variability over west Java and its linked to tropical climate phenomena such as MJO, ENSO and IOD were examined by analyzing observational ground data, satellite data and reanalysis dataset. Composite analysis show that west Java rainfall is significantly decreased when El Nino and positive IOD are simultaneously occured. In contrary, the rainfall has significantly increased when La Nina and negative IOD are co-occurred. By conducting simple linear correlation, we have found that West Java rainfall is significantly correlated with basin-scale climate phenomena both in Pacific and Indian Oceans during July to November (JASON). However, the correlation between IOD and the west Java rainfall becomes insignificant if the ENSO influence is excluded. It is suggested that the west Java rainfall is likely influenced by IOD. In order to investigate intraseasonal variability of rainfall in this region we have examined west Java rainfall at each phase of MJO. In general, rainfall anomalies over the west Java is increased (decresed) during Phases 3 to 4 (5 to 7) of MJO. Interestingly, the impact of MJO phase on the west Java rainfall variation tends to influence the northern and southern part of west Java. It is revealed that in terms of the MJO phase, there is north-south difference in amplitude of rainfall variation. Program Book 90

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 FORESTRY (FOR) FOR 001 Accurate Mapping of Tropical Peat Swamp Forests Using Airborne Discrete LIDAR. Solichin Manuri*, Hans-Erik Andersen, Cris Brack (Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University; [email protected]) The ability to better understand tropical peat ecosystem for restoration and climate change mitigation hampered by the unavailability of accurate and detailed data on vegetation cover and disturbances, which should be derived from detailed and high resolution measurements. The aims of this study were to explore the potential advantage of airborne discrete lidar for mapping of forest cover and hydrological system in peat swamp forests in Central Kalimantan. We used 2.8 1 pulse.m lidar derived from airborne platform. The lidar dataset fully covered 120 thousand hectares of protection forest. We extracted maximum vegetation heights in 5-m grid resolution to allow detailed mapping of the forest. We compared existing forest maps and explored forest definition from FAO for forest and non-forest classification. FOR 002 Forest Cover Dynamics Analysis and Prediction Modeling Using Logistic Regression Model (Case Study: Forest Cover at Indragiri Hulu Regency, Riau Province). Irmadi Nahib*, Jaka Suryanta (Geospatial Information Agency; [email protected]) Forest destruction, climate change and global warming could reduce an indirect forest benefit because forest is the largest carbon sink and it plays a very important role in global carbon cycle. To support Reducing Emissions from + Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD ) program, people pay attention of forest cover changes as the basis for calculating carbon stock changes. The present study attempted to study the forest cover dynamics and prediction modeling in Forest cover at Indragiri Hulu Regency, Rivau Provinve of Indonesia. The study aims to examine and analyze the various explanatory variables associated with forest conversion process and predict forest cover change using logistic regression model (LRM). The Materials used in this study are: Land Use Spatial Data (1990- 2011), Director General of Forestry Planning, Ministry of Environment and Forestry. The predictive performance of the model was assessed by comparing the model-predicted forest cover with the actual forest cover for 2011. To explain the effects of anthropogenic pressure on forest, this study considered three distance variables viz., distance from forest edge, roads and settlements, and slope position classesas explanatory variables of forest change. The analysis showed that forest cover has undergone continuous changebetween 1990 and 2010, leading to the loss of 73,156ha of forest area. The LRM successfully predictedthe forest cover for the period 2010 with reasonably high accuracy (ROC = 82.45 %). Program Book 91

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 FOR 003 Spatial Distribution and Habitat Suitability of Javan Gibbon in Gunung Halimun Salak National Park. Rahayu Oktaviani (Javan gibbon Research and Conservation Project; [email protected]) Javan gibbons (Hylobates moloch) are endemic to the western and central parts of Java, Indonesia, one of the most densely populated islands on earth. IUCN (2014) lists Javan gibbons as Endangered, with 2,500 adults remaining in >20 habitat fragments, although substantial uncertainty remains about population sizes and habitat occupancy. Despite legal protection of Javan gibbons and some critical gibbon habitats, deforestation and habitat degradation are the primary threats to their persistence. Gunung halimun salak national park (GHSNP) is well known as remaining forest and the best habitat for javan gibbons. Identification of suitable habitat for javan gibbon is essential to improve conservation management decision-making in the region for javan gibbons. This study was conducted to identify javan gibbons' distribution and habitat suitability using spatial analysis modeling with geographic information system (GIS) tools. Maximum Entrophy (MAxEnt) analysis was used to identify spatial distribution and to estimate the level of suitable habitat for javan gibbons. The result showed 42.14% (44,231.34 ha), 24.67% (25,899.67 ha) and 33.19% (34,833.02 ha) areal GHSNP has high, moderate and low suitability habitat for javan gibbons. Meanwhile forest canopy density (FCD) (53.88%) and temperature (35.60%) were dominant factors that influence javan gibbons distribution in GHSNP. FOR 004 Forest fires Detection in Indonesia Using Satellite Himawari-8 (Case Study: Sumatera and Kalimantan on August-October 2015). Fatkhuroyan*, Trinah Wati, Andersen Panjaitan (BMKG Indonesia; [email protected]) Forest fire in Indonesia are serious problems effecting widely in materials losses, health and environment. Himawari as one of the meteorological satellite with high resolution 0.5 km x 0.5 km can be used for forest fire monitoring and detection. Combination between 3, 4 and 6 channels using Sataid (Satellite Animation and Interactive Diagnosis) software will visualize forest fire in the study site. Monitoring which used Himawari data on August, September and October 2015 can detect the distribution of smoke and the extents of forest fire in Sumatera and Kalimantan. The result showed the extents of forest fire can be identified for anticipation in the next step. FOR 005 The Abundance and Spatial Distribusion of Plankton Communities in Perancak Estuary, Bali. Amandangi Wahyuning Hastuti*, Yuli Pancawati (Institute for Marine Research and Observation; [email protected]) Perancak estuary is a productive ecosystem and have important role for the balance of nature and the life of local communities. However, research about water quality and organisms in Perancak estuary is still low, especially on plankton Program Book 92

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 abundance and distribution. The aim of this research was to analyze the abundance and spatial distribution of plankton communities in Perancak estuary. The research was conducted by field surveys in November 2015, and samples were taken from 3 stations representing upstream (S1), stream (S2) and downstream (S3). Plankton sampling was carried out by filtering water samples as much as 100 litres by plankton net with mesh size 25µm, diameter 31 cm and length 80 cm. Filtered samples were stored in the sample bottle and the preserved with 1 ml of 4% formaldehyde. Result showed, abundance of phytoplankton 3 ranged between 33.600 – 3.002.400 cell/m and zooplankton between 6.000 – 3 57.000 ind/m . Total of 6 genus of phytoplankton and 14 genus of zooplankton were recorded during the research period. Ecological index showed that species diversity of plankton in Perancak estuary was categorized as low diversity. Generally, plankton abundance in S1 which located in Loloan River is higher than others. It’s caused by anthropogenic waste from agriculture, households and industrial waste. FOR 006 Wildlife Species Composition in Various Types of Land Cover on Sebuku Island, South Kalimantan. Afroh Manshur*, Cecep Kusmana, Omo Rusdiana, Haryanto R. Putro (Department of Forest Resources Conservation and Ecotourism, Faculty of Forestrym Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Sebuku is one of the small islands in South Kalimantan Province having high potential economic in mining sector. Based on its business permit, the island has been divided up into several mining concessions. So that biological diversity studies in this island is an interesting in order to serve biological baseline data if someday this island to be extracted for mining. The purpose of this research is to know the wildlife species composition in each type of land cover on Sebuku. This research was conducted on 28th November to 5th December 2015 in 7 forests 2 areas with rectangle transect method (40 x 1000 m ) in each location. Landsat imagery (November 2012) and Spot 6 imagery (November 2015) shows that there are 11 land cover types in Sebuku. Quite a contrast with LIDAR (2011), which is better interpret land cover types. The results also show there are 90 species identified in Sebuku. The beach forest ecosystem has the highest wildlife composition (36 species), while the area having the highest protected wildlife species are lowland forest. Both of there ecosystem having a secondary dry land forest cover. Mangrove forests generally have a lower species diversity. Nevertheless, in Sebuku, can be found mangrove forest that have a quite high of wildlife diversity (28 species, 50% protected). It is due to silt sedimentation in the estuary area, so that this area become feeding ground for shore and migratory birds although this area has not been designated as an Important Bird Area or Endemik Bird Area. Program Book 93

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 FOR 007 Effectiveness Study of Spatial Monitoring and Reporting Tool (SMART) Software on Conservation Activity in Palm Oil Plantation. Hernandea Frieda Forestriko*, Muhammad Silmi, Kharisma Putra, Ali Amran, Fila Istina Machid, Aldino Fauzil Fanani, Muhammad Ikhsan (UP-PT Surya Sawit Sejati; [email protected]) Biodiversity monitoring has become the duties of palm oil plantation companies which involved in Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO). An effort to maximize the management of High Conservation Value (HCV) in monitoring the biodiversity in palm oil plantation is by applying the geographic information system. Based on that reason, UP-PT. Surya Sawit Sejati which located in Central Kalimantan has reported their biodiversity monitoring used the Spatial Monitoring and Reporting Tool (SMART) software. This study aims to analyze the effectivity of SMART software in managing the HCV. The method that used is by extracting information about biodiversity, threat, river, road, and settlement area. That informations are given the specific weight and also overlay analyzed to obtain the biodiversity key area. The biodiversity key area will be used as guideline by management to apply the forest management strategy. The results showed that the SMART software will contribute positive impact in biodiversity monitoring at the conservation area of palm oil plantation. FOR 008 Agricultural Expansion and Deforestation in the Forestland of Riau, Sumatra. Zubair (Department of Forest Resources Conservation and Ecotourism, Faculty of Forestry, Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Some of Riau, Sumateras forestland is slowly turning into an altered forest, which is populated by a cultivated only species, the palm oil (Elaeis guineensis). Sacrifies its original form of land that serves as global carbon bank and the biodeversity in it. Palm oil also gives another product for mandkind. However in some ways the greedy behavior of economic-based bussines will bring chaos for nature. Basically, the Government set some regulation for the expansion of the palm oil plantation. Incluiding planning and ground-based data for control it. But this method is so vurnerable of data manipulation for sake of bargaining the expansion that will followed by deforestation. By that assumtion, it will be necessary to provide another data, the satellites photograph will be the one, that suitable. FOR 009 Habitat Suitability of Javan Langur (Presbytis comata) in Plantation Forest. Lilik Budi Prasetyo*, Toto Supartono, Agus Priyo Kartono, Agus Hikmat, Syahru Ramdoni (Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Jawa has been experiencing deforestation due to high population pressure. A lot of natural forest which play an important role as wildlife habitat are loss. The Program Book 94

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 remaining natural forest distribute in mountainous areas in the form natural conservation area, meanwhile the others have been converted into settlement and its infrastrcture, food crops, cashcrops plantation, estate and private forest plantation. Javan langur (Presbytis comata) is endemic species of Java and used to utilize natural forest as habitat. However, recently the species are identified in plantation forest in Kuningan district, West Java. This is interesting finding, due to the fact that based on previous literature, plantation forest is not suitable habitat for Javan langur. The research is trying to map its spatial distribution and habitat suitability based on biological and physical factors of its habitat. Data on Javan langur presence and its habitat component were derived from field observation, meanwhile analysis were conducted by using GIS, Remote sensing and statistical package software. FOR 010 Agarwood-Planted Trees Inventory in Indonesia. Maman Turjaman*, Asep Hidayat, Erdy Santoso (Forest Microbiology Research Group; Forest Research and Development Centre; Environment and Forestry Research; Development; and Innovation Agency (FORDA); Ministry of Enviromental and Forestry; [email protected]) Indonesia is known to have high diversity of agarwood-producing trees (APT) species compared to other countries in Asia. Unfortunately, the wild populations of APT species have declined significantly. After the development of technology for induction of agarwood formation by FORDA, many people have been initiating voluntarily to plant small scale of APT species. The purpose of this study was to record and maps the agarwood-planted trees in Indonesia as a baseline for future management of this species. The questioners were distributed to 31 of prefectures in Indonesia. The feedback came from 21 prefectures (67.7%), consisting from 121 regencies (36.6%) those in detail came from 579 district, 1,257 villages and 4,757 farmers group. The major of APT species planted by farmer groups are Aquilaria malaccensis, A. microcarpa, A. subsintegra, A. crassna, A. filaria, and Gyrinops versteegii. The potency of APT in Indonesia is 3.4 million trees, consisting from 0.2 million tree with DBH > 20 cm and 3.2 million tree with DBH < 20 cm. The highest APT in Indonesia is located in Central Kalimantan (24.7%) followed by North Sumatera (17.9%). The Prediction of agarwood products and its derivate will be obtained in 2020. The economic value might reach 1.6 trillion rupiahs if the inoculation used the standard procedure recommended by FORDA. These results showed how the APT contained a big potency to be future developed. Along with those of establishing small scale APT community plantation, government should also make and build all kind of regulation related to those of activities. FOR 011 Clustering of CO and CO2 Concentration from Sumatra Peat Fire Smog using HYSPLIT and K-Means Algorithm. Muslichatun Ni'am*, Imas Sukaesih Sitanggang, Danang Eko Nuryanto (Department of Computer Science, BogorAgricultural University; [email protected]) Program Book 95

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 Peat fires in Indonesia could have a negative impact for human life such as the emergence of smog. Therefore, this research aims to analyze concentration of CO and CO2 due to peat fires in Sumatra in 2015 using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) and K-Means algorithm. The results of this study indicate that HYSPLIT can be used to obtain the concentration of CO and CO2 from the smog. Clustering using K-Means algorithm produces an average of 3 3 the highest concentration of CO is 11.1471 µg/m and CO2 is 88.5882 µg/m . Generally, pollutants have an average concentration of 0.0487 µg/m3 for CO 3 and 0.3687 µg/m for CO2. The pollutant concentration is contained in 45 525 (95%) positions in smog trajectory and the smog spread starting from Riau to Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam. FOR 012 Mapping of Shorea Natural Distribution in the Last Remaining Forests in Riau as a Baseline Information for Conservation Strategy. Atok Subiakto*, Henti Hendalastuti Rachmat, Kesuma Wijaya (Center for forestry Research and Development; [email protected]) Dipterocarpaceae is the dominant tree family of tropical rain forest in Malesia region. Among the family, Shorea is the largest Genus compromising of about 196 species. In the past, conservation of dipterocarps was not an important issue as the family was common and abundant. However, Sumatran rain forests were cleared and converted at an annual rate of 500,000 hectares, with the most extensive were happened in the province of Riau, which lost 63% of its 6.9 million hectares of forest cover between 1985 and 2009. This study was carried out to determine the existing Shorea species in the remnant forest of Riau Province. Line transects, walk transects, and point count methods were conducted to determine the presence any of dipterocarps species in the designated remnant areas. Field surveys conducted three times during year 2015. Leaves samples for morphological identification was collected especially for dubious species for further taxonomic identification. The methods also included mapping all Shorea species found with recorded coordinates by GPS for each of tree in the forests. Data analysis for mapping was conducted by using Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The result showed that the patchy remnants forest in Riau still conserve of around 22 species Shorea, included of 14 species Shorea Red Meranti, 1 species of Shorea White Meranti, 4 species of Shorea Yellow Meranti, and 3 species of Shorea Balau. However, in average the numbers of individual found for each of the species was low showing the fragility of local species loss and extinction. FOR 013 Mangrove Management Based on Local Wisdom Through Increased Perception of School Environment (Case Study at Lhokseumawe, Aceh). Dewi Susiloningtyas* (Department of Geography, FMIPA UI; [email protected]) Program Book 96

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 After 2004 tsunami, lots of efforts have been made, such as building school and distributing mangrove forests. This study examines the perception of teachers and students about mangrove management which spread in the administrative area of Lhokseumawe to become a reference then applied as local education regarding mangrove after tsunami disaster. This paper was based on primary data taken using questionnaire with a predetermined analysis unit to interview teachers and students in the study area. The result presented with quantitative and descriptive analysis. The result is of the total number of junior high schools in the city of Lhokseumawe as many as 41 Public Schools, Private and Religious School, there are 31 schools with priority for local wisdom education implemented mangrove. The result is classified with 3 class. The school’s first priority is schools with a melee, with mangroves poor condition, educational, priority 2 is schools with close proximity to the mangrove and mangrove condition with moderate levels of damage. Schools with third priority are school with a close range, and mangrove good condition. Priority I, as many as 18 schools, 10 schools priority II and 3 school for priority with learning competency standards that differ from each other. FOR 014 Potential Habitat of Javan Hawk-Eagle Based on Multi-Scale Approach and Its Implication for Conservation. Cici Nurfatimah, Syartinilia*, Yeni Aryati Mulyani (Department of Landscape Architecture Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Javan Hawk-Eagle has been designated as one of the 25 top priority protected species to be increased by 10% of current population number. Lack of suitable habitat is most likely the reason for the decline of the species in landscapes subject to major human modification. Central part of Java Island has suffered the most severe forest damage and fragmentation compared to the western part and eastern part of the island. This study presents the number of predicted suitable habitats for Javan Hawk-Eagle in the central part of Java Island based on habitat probability model. Multi-scale approach was being used to determine the accuracy level of patches reading between different image resolutions. 38 patches were detected at 30 m, 28 patches at 90 m, and 19 patches were detected at 250 m images resolutions. Higher reading implied more landscape structures within different regions should be considered during management of habitat conservation. Therefore, larger scale of conservation management application should be conducted as well. FOR 015 Visualization of Spatial Decision Tree for Predicting Hotspot Occurrence in Land and Forest. Aji Primajaya*, Imas Sukaesih Sitanggang, Lailan Syaufina (Department of Information Technology; Faculty of Computer science; University of Singaperbangsa Karawang; [email protected]) Visualization is an important issue in datamining to easy understand patterns extracted from dataset. This research applied the Bottom-Up Approach method to Program Book 97

T h e 3 r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n L I S A T 2 0 1 6 develop a visualization module for a spatial decision tree in a geographic information system. Spatial data used in this work consists of nine explanatory layers and one target layers in the study area Rokan Hilir District, Indonesia. Explanatory layers include physical, weather, socio-economic, peatland type and peatland depth layers. The target layer contains hotspot and non-hotspot points that occurred in 2008. The result is the visualization module of spatial decision tree that has three main features including mapping window, interactive window, tree node and tabular visualization for predicting hotspot occurrence. FOR 016 Spatial Temporal Clustering for Hotspot Using Kulldorff Scan Statistic Methode /KSS (Case Study in Province Riau). Sahid Agustian H*, Taufik Djatna, Agus Ambarwari (Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) The forest fires in Indonesia occurs especially when the dry season. About 61% of forest fires in Southeast Asia occurred in Indonesia in the period 1990-2010. Almost all the causes of forest fires are caused by human action itself. The impact of forest fires is the loss of biodiversity, pollution hazard and harm the economy of surrounding communities. Given the impact of the fires are very harmful and the factors causing the fire complex, it is important to develop early warning systems for the prevention of forest fires. Indication of land and forest fires can be known through the hotspots detected in a location at a certain time. Hotspot data is one of product from remote sensing, then processed to provide information about the fire, using Spatial Temporal Clustering with Kulldorff Scan Statistic method which is a statistical approach to process data such hotspot. The result can be used for early indication for land and forest fires. FOR 017 Hotspot Sequential Pattern Visualization in Peatland of Sumatra and Kalimantan using Shiny Framework. Gema Abriantini*, Imas Sukaesih Sitanggang, Rina Trisminingsih (Bogor Agricultural University; [email protected]) Peatland is one of potential land in Indonesia. However, fires on peatland occurred each year in Sumatra and Kalimantan. Fires on peatland can be identified by hotspot sequential patterns. Sequential pattern mining is one of data mining technique that can be used to analyze hotspot sequential patterns. Sequential pattern discovery equivalent classes (SPADE) algorithm can be applied to extract hotspot sequential patterns. The objectives of this work are: 1) obtain hotspot sequential pattern in Sumatra and Kalimantan in 2014 and 2015, and 2) build a web based application using Shiny framework that is available in R package for hotspot sequential pattern visualization in peatland of Sumatra and Kalimantan. Hotspot sequential patterns were obtained using minimum support of 0.01 with the focus of analysis is the hotspot sequences with length two or more events. This work generated as many 89 sequences with length 2 or more in Sumatra in 2014, 147 sequences in Sumatra in 2015, 48 sequences in Kalimantan in 2014, and 51 sequences in Kalimantan in 2015. Hotspot sequential patterns are visualized based on peatland’s characteristics, weather, and social economy. The Program Book 98