Ethiopia and Russia Diplomatic Relation

Ethiopian Civil Service University School of Diplomacy & International Relations (SDIR) Ethiopia and Russia Relation: Strength, Weakness, Opportunities BY Belayneh Zelelew To Be Submitted to: Mr. Endale Nigussie School of Diplomacy and International Relation November 2019 Addis Ababa

Table of Contents Introduction................................................................................................................................................... 3 Ethiopia and Russia Foreign policy from International Relation Theoretical Perspective ........................... 4 Ethiopia and Russia Relation ........................................................................................................................ 7 Economic Relation.................................................................................................................................... 7 Political Relation....................................................................................................................................... 8 Cultural relation ........................................................................................................................................ 9 Ethio-Russia Relation strengths and weaknesses........................................................................................ 11 Weakness ................................................................................................................................................ 11 Strengthen ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Opportunities............................................................................................................................................... 12 Recommendations....................................................................................................................................... 13 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................. 14 Reference .................................................................................................................................................... 15 2

Introduction Russia’s rich relationship with Africa dates back to the time of the tsars. For geopolitical and ideological reasons, the Soviet Union did not attempt to build up a system of African colonies, though during Tsarist Russia there had been several unsuccessful colonial attempts. Official relations first intensified following the liberation of the African states, especially in the 1950s (Tamas, 2019). Russia-Africa relations have entered a rapid phase of decline in political and economic terms after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Under the imperatives of the post-Cold War era, Russia- Africa relations were in need of a comprehensive stage of reconstruction. In the first decade of the 21st century, Russian foreign policy started to be reconstructed on the principles of economic benefit and pragmatism. At this stage, the perception of Africa in Russia changed within the framework of the new national priorities, and Russia-Africa relations gained a new positive momentum. The history of Ethiopia and Russia relationship has its origins in the 19th century. Russia’s first steps in the Horn of Africa were taken by a Cossack Adventurer, N.I Ashinov, who attempted to establish a “New Moscow” at the coastal town of Sagallo in modern-day Djibouti. This short- lived settlement came to an end in February 1889 when French authorities removed the 175 Russian settlers, (Yohannes, 2013). While Ashniov had never more than lukewarm support from the Russian Tsar, a delegation led by V.F. Mashkov to Emperor Menelik II in October 1889 was Official. Mashkov discussed arms sales to Ethiopia with the Ethiopian emperor and, upon returning to Russia, was decorated by the Tsar. Mashkov made a second visit to Ethiopia early 1891 under the sponsorship of the Imperial Russian Geographical Society The Soviet Union was one of only five nations which refused to acknowledge Italy’s Occupation of Ethiopia. Official diplomatic relations between the two countries were established 21 April 1943, (Yohannes, 2013). This paper will attempt to examine based on appropriate theory analyses the relations between the two countries. This paper argues that the rising trend of the African continent, especially Ethiopia, in the international arena presents a new series of opportunities to Russia in economic and political domains. Ethiopia and Russia have had a long history of collaboration and partnership. It is the right time to take this even further for the mutual benefits of both countries. 3

Ethiopia and Russia Foreign policy from International Relation Theoretical Perspective Theory of international relations explains how the international system works. Theories are not reality, but they show us something significant meaning about the real world. There are widely practiced classifications of IR theory in the West, such as realism, liberalism/Idealism, and critical theory or constructivism (Viotti and Kauppi 1998; Weber 2005; Nau 2006). Russian theory of international relations is nationally specific, yet it is also grounded in three main intellectual traditions of presenting Self, Other, and their relationships. We refer to these traditions as Westernism, Statism, and Civilizationism because they each emphasize categories of the West, the independent state, and the distinct civilization as their desired identifications of the Russian Self. Westernizers saw the Russian idea as an essentially Western idea, and they placed the emphasis on Russia’s similarity with Western nations and viewed the West as the most viable and progressive civilization in the world. Westernizers within the Soviet system saw Russia as not standing too far apart from European social-democratic ideas. Statists have equated the Russian idea with that of a strong independent state and emphasized the state’s ability to govern and preserve the social and political order. They too showed their wariness of the other and introduced the notion of external threat as central to Russia’s security. Depending on a situation, the threatening other was presented as coming from either an eastern or western direction. Ever since the two-centuries-long conquest by Mongols, Russians has developed a psychological complex of insecurity and a readiness to sacrifice everything for independence and sovereignty. For instance, when justifying the need for rapid industrialization, the leader of the Soviet state Josef Stalin famously framed his argument in terms of responding to powerful external threats. The history of the old Russia was the continual beating she suffered because of her backwardness. She was beaten by the Mongol khans. She was beaten by the Turkish beys. She was beaten by the Swedish feudal lords. She was beaten by the Polish and Lithuanian gentry. She was beaten by the English and French capitalists. She was beaten by the Japanese barons. All beat her – for her backwardness […] we are fifty or a hundred years behind the advanced countries. We must make good this distance in ten years. Either we do it, or we shall be crushed” (Sakwa 1999:187–8). 4

Finally, Civilizationists conceptualized the self/other relationships in terms of cultural oppositions. This intellectual tradition positioned Russia and its values as principally different from those of the West. Viewing Russia as a civilization in its own right, many Civilizationists insisted on Russia’s “mission” in the world and spreading Russian values abroad (Duncan 2000). Realists propose that Russia concentrate on strengthening its international position by consolidating regional ties and pursuing even-handed relations with Western and non-Western nations. When we see the Ethiopia context, in ancient times Ethiopia had external relations with various countries. However a well-organized foreign policy document of the country was introduced in the 20th Century. In the absence of organized foreign policy, historically Emperor/Atse Tewodros had an ambition of making alliances with Christian countries-such as Britain and France and defend the country from foreign attack as well as expanding the territory of the country in all sides. He was requesting them for making alliance against the treat from the Muslim countries such as Egypt. He called upon the “principle of Christian solidarity against Muslim Egypt” (Bahru, 2002). When his ambition to make balance of power failed, he had tried to build his own fire arms for self-help (Bahru, 2002) which is in line with the basic concepts of Realism theory. Similar alliance need continued to exist in the following monarchs of Ethiopia. For instance Emperor Yohannes IV victory against Egyptian at the battle of Gundat(1875) and Gura(1876). showed that he relied on “self-help”. In his external relations he had signed Hewett(Adwa) Peace Treaty in 1884 with the British to evacuate Egyptian troops from the Mahedist of Sudan..In his conflict with Egyptians, Emperor Yohannes had also requested “Christian solidarity with Ethiopa, who found herself under the threat of Islamization and enslavement by Ismail” (Bahru, 2002). The victory of Ethiopian troops against the Italian invaders at the battle of Adwa also showed that Emperor Menilik was relying on “self-help”. In the later period the victory of Adwa had inspired other liberation movements in the African continent. In his period, the Emperor had established Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia which was a step forward in the external relations of the country. Foreign legations had also been established in Addis Ababa. Before the establishment of the League of Nations which underlined the principle of collective security system, states used to rely on their own military might and self help (Melaku, 2016). 5

During the reign of Emperor Haile Sellassie we find the elements of Realism and Liberalism theory in his foreign policy. The policy of Emperor was in line with the principle of Liberalism school of thought when he pushed to join the League of Nations, and later to be signatory member of the United Nations as well as playing a greater role in crafting the establishment of the Organization of the African Unity. During his reign, Ethiopia had also participated in the collective security system of the United Nations Organizations by contributing troops in the Korean War(Melaku, 2016). In 1974, the Dergue regime established a “pro-Soviet Marxist-Leninist communist one-party state” (Steven, 2012). Soon the regime started supporting the socialist ideology against the capitalist ideology. Based on this direction the foreign policy of the country became in line with the Marxists School of thought. At the time of the Cold War period the Dergue regime was practically on the side of socialist bloc. Because of a threat from Somalia and the interest to gun down “rebel” groups in the north, the regime had established one of the biggest army in the continent. This showed that there was element of realism school of thought in the implementation of the foreign policy. We find mixed school of thoughts in the foreign policy of the EPRDF government. At the beginning of its establishment, the government has made clear that it will not participate in any military alliance-which is in favour of the Liberalist school of thought. Good neighborliness has become the motto of the government. The government had gone to the extent of diminishing the size of the army considerably. This shows that the government relies more on collaboration and cooperation with other states, rather than relying on self-help and balance of power. We also find the elements of Social Constructive Theory in the foreign policy of the EPRDF government. As mentioned above this theory gives a focus on social or subjective forces, rather than “objective” or material forces in the international relations, (Melaku, 2016). Theoretical frameworks help to show the base of the policy in crafting it as well as it shows the patterns of decision making of a state towards other countries. In scrutinizing the present foreign policy document of Ethiopia we do not find any explanation about theoretical frameworks by which it was crafted. It is possible to say that in implementing the foreign policy of Ethiopia, Liberalism and Realism school of thought are being reflected based on the issues at hand. 6

Ethiopia and Russia Relation Ethiopia and Russia established a formal diplomatic relation soon after the victory of Adewa 121 years ago. On 21 April 1943, a new phase in Russo-Ethiopian relations began when, on Ethiopia’s initiative, diplomatic relations between Moscow and Addis Ababa were established (E.Kartserva, 2008). Ethiopia is one of Russia’s main partners in Africa. Both countries are tied by years of solidarity with the African countries in their fight for independence and decolonization. Throughout their partnership, they have gained extensive experience in mutually beneficial cooperation that meets the interests of both countries in various areas. In this part will provide an additional insight about Ethiopia and Russia economic, cultural, political relationship. Economic Relation The first trade and cooperation agreement signed by the USSR and Ethiopia dates back to 1959. The document triggered dynamic development of trade and economic ties that peaked in the 1970s. The USSR assisted Ethiopia in 20-plus large-scale projects, i.e. construction of a number of industrial facilities, large power installations, and a polytechnic college, as well as geological exploration project of considerable scale. Particularly significant assistance was rendered to Ethiopia when the country struggled with the aftermaths of famine and drought persisted multiple years in the 1980s. Another milestone came in 1995 when the partners founded a bilateral Intergovernmental Committee on Trade, Economic, Scientific and Research Cooperation. In 2001, the partners signed a Declaration on the Principles of Friendship and Partnership. In recent years, there has been an increased exchange of visits between high level officials the two countries. The two countries established an Intergovernmental Commission responsible for facilitating economic, trade and scientific cooperation. Russia agreed to cooperate with Ethiopia in major projects such as energy, agriculture, transport infrastructure and others (Rosoboronexport, 2019). In 2018 Sergey Lavrov concentrated his efforts on Sub- Saharan Africa, where Russia is weakest economically, in the hope of clinching framework agreements. Lavrov visited Angola, Namibia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Ethiopia in succession. In each country, he promoted 7

three pillars: a revival or increase in military and security cooperation; the opening of national economies to Russian investment and the relaunch of cultural and university exchanges (Arnaud, 2019). For Russia, it is about gaining a slice of the market, developing scientific and technical cooperation, no longer being excluded from the exploitation of natural resources and being seen as a major player in the fight against terrorism by African leaders. In other words, Moscow wants to develop partnerships in which it exchanges security for economic advantage. Such partnerships depend on three characteristics mainly, the weariness of some African public bodies towards Chinese lending and trade with China: Russia promotes, in contrast, a model that, on the face of it, appears more interesting. In Mauritania, Ghana and even Ethiopia, governments have become disappointed with their Chinese partners as a result of loans whose terms are unfavourable in relation to the benefits that they provide. According to Russia, it wants to dispense with such onerous contracts and focus on the needs of the government in question. Bilateral trade is in the red: having fallen by 50% between 2016 and 2017, Ethiopia’s trade with Russia is worth just $80 million per year, much less than its trade with the USA and China, its two main trading partners (Arnaud, 2019). Russian supplies Ethiopia with mineral fertilizers (56% of total export) and grain crops (40%). Import from Ethiopia is dominated by agricultural products like coffee, oil-seeds and pulses, vegetables and flowers. According to Russia Ambassador to Ethiopia Yevgeny Terekhin, there are more than 30 Russian companies presently (2019) investing in different spheres in Ethiopia. Russians are not new to the Ethiopian oil exploration and mining sector, manufacturing and energy companies show their keen interest to engage in these sectors. Russian companies shows interest to develop hydropower projects in Ethiopia. Per the Russian Ambassador they view as promising such fields as rail road construction, pharmaceutical industry, tourism and others. Today Russian government is trying to encourage Russian investors to come to the country. Political Relation Symbolically, Tsar Nicholas II’s help offered to Emperor Menelik II, as well as the USSR’s political support to Haile Selassie during the Italian occupation, are two key episodes in the pre- 8

1960 period that formed the foundation for mutual respect and understanding. In both cases, Russia, and then the Soviet Union were guided by their own national interests, as Ethiopia was the fulcrum of Russian regional designs, aimed at its greatest adversaries (Radoslav, 2012). Military and technical cooperation between Russia and Ethiopia has been on and off through all these years. In 1970-1990, Russia exported military equipment worth a total of $5.2 bln. to Ethiopia. Not least significant was assistance, both practical and advisory in nature, rendered by the USSR to Ethiopia in repelling the Somalian aggression in 1977-1978. In 1998-1999, Ethiopia received Russian Su fighters, Mi helicopters, artillery systems, T-55 tanks, MANPADS’s, and other weapons(Radoslav,2012).. According to ambassador Yevgeny Terekhin view, the Horn of Africa is a strategic region both geographically and geopolitically, as it is overlooking an important maritime route from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean. It is also an evident link between Sub-Saharan Africa and the Arab world and an ancient crossroad between different cultures and regions. So, it is quite natural that it always stays in the focus of the global community and the permanent members of the UN Security Council, especially given the persistent instability on both sides of the Gulf of Aden. Hence, the efforts by many foreign players to extend their influence in the Horn both through military and economic presence are not surprising. The Russia strongly believes that international cooperation and assistance is much more essential to create secure and predictable environment in the Horn. It could obviously assist paving the way to unlocking the full economic potential of the region for the benefit of its peoples. The ongoing integration processes in the region and on the whole African continent can lead to increasingly intensive cooperation in numerous areas, but it would not be easy to provide this development successfully without global outreach. The Russia ambassador in Ethiopia believe that the Russia support positive efforts on these tracks, given that they are conducted with full respect to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries of the region and are endorsed by their respective governments. Cultural relation The inter connectivity of Ethiopia and Russia is not confined to political, economic and diplomatic activities alone. They also have cultural and religious linkages. The majority of 9

people of both countries are the Orthodox faithful. The two have strict social norms and cultural affiliations. Russian Cultural Center in Ethiopia is the oldest institution of its kind in the African continent. It was opened in 1945 (Teshome, 2019). Russia’s political engagement in Africa pales in comparison with its investment in Asia. Since his first term in office, Vladimir Putin has toured Asian countries to develop bilateral ties. Africa was of only marginal importance to him. Whereas Asia beyond the Urals is part of Russian cultural history, to the point of appearing in Russia’s coat of arms (the two- headed eagle), Africa is imagined as a far-away land, despite Alexander Pushkin’s part-Ethiopian origins. Beyond cultural cooperation in the strictest sense—promoting Russian literature, cooperation between museums—the Russian language and subjects such as history, mathematics and economics represent key elements in Russia’s cultural diplomacy in Africa. The tasks of developing Russian-Ethiopian cooperation in the scientific field are among the embassy priorities. Ethiopian scientific circles highly appreciate the activities of the joint Russian-Ethiopian biological expedition, operating in the country since 1987 under the auspices of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Work is underway to develop cooperation with Ethiopia in the field of education. Over 20 thousand Ethiopian citizens have received higher education in the universities of the USSR / Russia. Ethiopian citizens are currently being sent to study in Russia within a quota (about 30 places annually) of Russian state scholarships and on a contractual (paid) basis. The selection for study on a quota basis is carried out through the RCSC. Many Ethiopian graduates of Soviet / Russian universities make up the cultural and scientific elite of their homeland and occupy high governmental positions. The development of inter-university relations has now become the subject of negotiations with the number of local universities. Russian-Ethiopian cultural cooperation is necessary to note the work of the Russian Center for Science and Culture. Cultural and educational events are held periodically at the RCSC site (round tables, contests, exhibitions, concerts, film shows, literary evenings, etc.) dedicated to significant dates in Russian history and the work of prominent figures of science, culture and art. The proximity of the Christianity professed by a large part of the Ethiopian population with Russian Orthodoxy served as a solid basis for the rapprochement of the two countries peoples. 10

Interchurch contacts contributed to the establishment of sympathy and mutual understanding between the imperial houses of the two countries (Mekasa, 2019). It is worth noting that church contacts between the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) and the Ethiopian Orthodox Church (EOC) took place in the Soviet era, although they could not be made publicly available. The ROC actively assisted the sisterly EOC in training clergymen. Ethio-Russia Relation strengths and weaknesses Weakness Russia’s decades-long absence from Africa for granted, cash-strapped Russia’s reach on the continent is still a far cry from what China, the West and many lesser powers can muster when it comes to financing, trade, investment and even influence. As we can see from Paul Stronski data, In 2017, trade between Russia and sub-Saharan Africa was $3 billion, well behind China's $56 billion and the U.S.' $27 billion. The most significant mineral and energy opportunities it's pursuing have already been examined or discarded by other players. The bilateral trade turnover reached $157.6 million in 2016 that is 137% higher than in 2015. Russian export multiplied by 2.7 and amounted to $144.3 million whereas Ethiopian export remained at its level of $13.3 million. The trade relations between the two \"historically connected countries\" stood in favor of Russia. Another weakness we can see from Ethiopia side is vulnerable to weather conditions and changes in world commodity prices, being landlocked country, low foreign exchange reserves, persistent challenges in the business and governance environment, unstable regional context and strong ethno-political tensions that hinder to promote investment and attract Russian tourists. Strengthen Russia written off ($ 163.6 million) Ethiopia’s debt cancelled under Russia’s debt-for- development program. The program assumes that debt cancellation is made in exchange for privileges such as expanding business opportunities for Russian companies, access to natural resources and building strategic economic ties. This is one of the strength of the two countries long relations (Aleyev, 2019). 11

Russia has, for several years, been quietly investing in Soviet-era partnerships and forging new alliances by offering security, arms training and electioneering services in exchange for mining rights and other opportunities. There is huge amount of opportunities in the Energy sector, hydrocarbon production, infrastructure and peaceful use of nuclear are amongst the areas that the two countries can apparently cooperate. Similarly, both sides regularly discuss regional and global security issues, supporting each other’s position in the Security Council of the United Nations. It helps a lot to draw experiences and trends about the modernity and the development of the Russia country. Their pursuit of civilization is a lesson for the nation’s youths and the people at large. It gives a quantum leap for the youth’s passion to catapult to the heights of self-reliance and self-leadership. Opportunities Russia has profoundly changed its narrative about Africa: from presenting the continent in a negative light before 2013, it began to emphasise its economic potential. This rhetorical shift was embodied by Mikhail Margelov, who served as the Kremlin’s Special Representative for Africa until 2014(Arnaud, 2019). The Russian actors active in Africa are mainly seeking to reap economic benefits in return for selling Russian goods and services in the security sector. To achieve this, and to strengthen its position in Africa, the Kremlin and the MFA have used the machinery of state to first launch an information offensive (2014) and then to deploy delegations on the ground (2018), with the Foreign Minister (Sergey Lavrov) and Secretary of the National Security Council (Nikolai Patrushev) at their head(Arnaud,2019). As we can see from present international relation there is no doubt that 2019 will see a quickening of renewed international competition in Africa. China is now Africa’s leading trading partner and India, Russia and others are increasing their involvement, whereas the European Union is treading water and the United States is falling behind. A key development in 2018 was Russia’s re-entry into Africa. The Russia and Ethiopia have blood ties through most well known author Alexander Pushkin. His ancestor came from Abraham Hannibal who sailed to Istanbul on boat crossing the Red Sea. 12

Then the ambassador of Russia to Istanbul astonished by light dark skin of Abraham took him to Russia. Then after, the ambassador handed over Abram as a gift to Peteros I. Abraham was settled himself in the palace and emcee. Alexander Pushkin’s linage could be traced back to Abraham. This is a great opportunities to strengthen Ethiopian soft power for cooperation with Russia (Tesome, 2019). One of the opportunities to strength Ethiopian soft power is a number of prominent Russian scientists made a significant contribution to the study and teaching of the state language of Ethiopia in Russia. Thanks to their efforts, a number of fundamental scientific works, textbooks and Russian-Amharic dictionaries were published. They brought up a whole generation of Russian Amharists(the current Russian Ambassador speak Amharic). Today Amharic is taught at four Universities in Moscow and St. Petersburg. There is huge amount of opportunities which focused on economic, scientific, technical and trade cooperation between the two countries. Cooperation on climate change, renewable energy, space and digital technologies, culture and tourism, peaceful use of nuclear energy are also among the opportunities of cooperation. Recommendations This is the last part of this paper that provides recommendations based on the above analysis made in the previous part of this paper. The recommendations are designed to address the existing gaps and indicate opportunities the two countries mutually benefits from their cooperation. Herewith, few recommendations that helps to strengthening the two countries political, economical, and cultural and other types of relation and cooperation;  Russia promised further cooperation, building on recent agreements with African governments. Ethiopian government should plan strategically to increase the benefit and mitigate the drawback from Russia-Africa cooperation.  Russia’s trade with Africa remains below levels, this means that Russia’s engagement and presence in Africa is still lagging behind the other major powers in many ways. The Russia governments should fill the gap through different ways like enhancing trade relationships with Africa, more specifically with its old ally’s country Ethiopia.  One of Russia’s goals is clearly to revive Russia great-power status. And Ethiopia is the seat of the African Union (AU) , United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), 13

Regional power and served as a symbol of African independence throughout the continents, because of those and others reason Ethiopia can play a great role Russia to achieve this goal.  Russia should use strategic investment in energy and minerals, as well as military muscle and soft power, to gain more traction on the continent.  Ethiopia diplomats in Russia and non state actor works hardly to gets the Russian investors and government attention.  Ethiopia needs to develop robust and dynamic policy options that are consistent with its strategic pillars and with the changing global, regional and local power alignments in order to strengthen and sustain its hitherto successful foreign policy.  It is very important that the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats are continuously, robustly analysed and articulated with a view to strengthening the strategic pillars and further developing additional, smart policy options. Conclusion The strategic pillars of Ethiopia’s foreign policy positioning globally, regionally and locally are based on the principles of respect for national sovereignty, non-alignment, pursuance of mutual benefits and the creation of peaceful environments conducive for internal and regional development and progress. These policies have yielded dividends for the country in terms of safeguarding its national interests economically, politically, diplomatically and militarily, which are the outcomes of pursuing a “Win-Win” foreign policy. The two countries throughout their partnership, they have gained extensive experience in mutually beneficial cooperation that meets the interests of both countries in various areas. Significant countries of the world that hold political and economic powers currently aim to develop economic interests and political influence on the African continent. Russia uses every opportunity to demonstrate its willingness to acquire its former prestige among world states. In short, Russia and Ethiopia have blood and marital bondages. 14

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