Water and Politics its impact on Development in Ethiopia

Water and Politics: it’s impact on Development in Ethiopia Belayneh Zelelew Negash Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, October 2020 Water is fundamental importance for human and economic development, the environment and all living creatures for their existence. Although water is available on this earth in large quantity but it is not equally distributed. It occupies 70% of earth surface from which 2.5% is considered fresh water and the remaining 97.5% is highly saline Ocean. Rivers are main source of fresh water and serve humanity in different ways. They provide socio-economic linkages among the riparian. This precious commodity has a political as well as economic significance too. It played vital role in decision making both at regional and international level (Levine, 1983). Distribution of water has always been an issue throughout the human history. Distribution is not a problem when commodity like water is available abundant and every co-share gets his satisfactory share. It becomes a problem when water is in short supply that leads to disagreements and disputes. Water has often been a source of conflict among shareholders. When a dispute arises over water resource, peace cannot be achieved without resolving the question of water right. The upper-riparian usually took advantage and want to use maximum quantity of the available water, while the lower-riparian wants equitable distribution of water for the development of its areas (Rajput, 2007). Water resources are shrinking due to swelling population, industrialization and urbanization. Production of different commodities requires the consumption of water also. The scale of water consumption for producing different commodities at present time is very high, for example in order to produce one litter of petroleum, one cane of vegetables, one kilogram of paper, and one ton of woolen cloth, it is necessary to consume ten litters, forty liters, hundred liters and six hundred liters of water, respectively (Encyclopedia Britannica, pp. 646). According to Ministry of Water Resources, water sector development programme2002-2016, 20002, Ethiopia is endowed with water and other natural resources. It has an area of 1,104,000 km2 of which cultivable land area estimate is between 30 to 40Mha, which is about 300 to 400 thousand km: or 30 to 40% of the total land mass. It receives an average of 850mm of rainfall per annual. Surface and ground water resources potential are about 122 and 36 BM\\ respectively. It has significant irrigation and hydropower potential with estimated values of 5.3million ha and 2|Page

45000MW respectively. Nonetheless only 15Mha of the cultivable land is under cultivation, about 12% is irrigated and less than five percent of the hydropower potential is utilized so far. Furthermore the national average water supply coverage is at 61.7% according to national WASH inventory result (MoWE, 2013). The aforementioned facts and figures indicate that Ethiopia faces range of challenges in water resources to use for its’ development. Cognizant of these facts, the government of Ethiopia has given strong emphasis to the sector. The huge proportion of the national and regional budget allocated to the endeavor concretizes this fact. Currently there are a number of huge water sector development projects (including Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam) that are undergoing in different parts of the country (like Gilgel Gibe 1,2,3 and Tana Beles, Tekeze, Melka Wakena, Fincha, Koka, Genale I-VI, Tis Abay..etc) and many more are planned. Political Economy analysis The Ethiopian People’s Democratic Revolutionary Front (EPDRF), has started major processes of governance reform, including devolution into an ethnic group-based federation, a reform of the civil service, a gradual liberalisation of the economy and a policy to devolve fiscal, political and administrative power to regional governments. Such reforms have had mixed reviews. Today, major elements of the Political Economy context include: continued centralisation of power and state control of land; tight control of the party over state institutions; relative weakness of opposition parties and civil society; and, continuing suspicion of the private sector – for example, in borehole drilling and the provision of spare parts for water supply infrastructure (Seleshi, Makonnen, Aster,2007). One of the most significant reasons for the formation of a federal government has been to combat tyrant regimes by decentralising the powers of the government. But an attempt to mix Marxist ideology of one-party rule with federalism is believed to create contradictory scenarios. The former indoctrinates centralisation of political power while the latter teaches decentralisation of power. As it is quite evident today in Ethiopia, the blending of two contradictory ideologies coupled with the modalities of the federal structures (such as ethnic federalism, asymmetric and 3|Page

incongruent forms of federalism, dominant-party governance) provide valid reasons for the prevailing ethnic conflict in Ethiopia (Belalu, 2017). According to EPRDF program, under economic program the strategic economic objective is to build a robust free market economy whereby: rapid economic growth is guaranteed, where the people are genuine beneficiaries of growth and development and where the share and position of the country in the global economy is improved to ensure the country's economic independence (EPRDF, unknown). On article 7.6 the program stated that the party ensures the building of infrastructure supporting agricultural development: education and training, health services, irrigation schemes and the like. To ensure also organizational forms that enable greater coordination of agricultural development programs. To strengthen executive bodies of government, particularly at the district (Woreda) and local (kebele) levels. The program not stated boldly the usage of water resource of the country for its economic development. In the EPRDF program article 7.10 of the economic program mentioned that, the party ensures the country's food security. To ensure food security through improved land use and proper selection of agricultural work with optimal yield in a given area, and through efficient use of rainfall and dry land water (EPRDF, Unknown). The usage of our Water resources is not adequately addressed, though there is tremendous need for it. Ethiopia’s Water Resource All countries depend on water; but some countries are more dependent on their water resources than others-Ethiopia is top on the list. Ethiopia is mainly agrarian nation and the rain fed system has always played a central role in Ethiopian society. Dependency on rain fed system has put more than 80% of the society at the mercy of meteorological variability (Seleshi, Makonnen, Aster ,2007). The geographical location of Ethiopia and its endowment with favorable climate provides a relatively higher amount of rainfall in the region. Much of the water, however, flows across the borders being carried away by the Trans-boundary Rivers to the neighboring countries. Although we cannot be definite due to lack of researched data as yet, preliminary studies and professional estimates indicate that the country has an annual surface runoff of close to 122 billion cubic meters of water excluding ground water. The big and main water resources problem in Ethiopia is the uneven spatial and temporal occurrence and distribution. Between 80- 4|Page

90% of Ethiopia's water resources is found in the four river basins namely, Abay (Blue Nile), Tekeze, Baro Akobo, and Omo Gibe in the west and south-western part of Ethiopia where the population is no more than 30 to 40 per cent. On the other hand, the water resources available in the east and central river basins are only 10 to 20 per cent whereas the population in these basins is over 60 per cent (MoWR, Unknown). Consequently, for all the water development activities achieved so far, the average access to clean and safe water supply is about 17% of the total population of Ethiopia. This can be cited as an example of a very low supply and coverage level even by Sub-Saharan African standards. Irrespective of Ethiopia's endowment with potentially huge irrigable land the area of land under irrigation so far is only about 3 per cent showing that water resources have made little contribution towards the development of irrigated agricultural sector up to now. It can easily be realized, however, in addition to the underdeveloped irrigation, the accelerated population growth and the disparity of rainfall distribution make production of sufficient food and food security almost impossible. On the contrary, a number of studies made in the field confirm that if the country's water resources are developed to cater for irrigation, it would be possible to attain agricultural surplus enough both for domestic consumption as well as for external markets (MoWR, Unknown). The other major natural resource of Ethiopia is the hydropower potential. Many field studies reveal that Ethiopia stands second in hydropower potential next to the Congo. The mountainous feature and hydrological conditions enables the country to generate hydropower at a lower cost. So far, however, the country has utilized only a fraction of this potential. If this resource is developed and utilized properly, the studies show that the hydropower generation will not only be enough to meet the national energy demand but shall also provide surplus power enough to be marketed to neighboring countries earning commensurate foreign exchange (MoWR, Unknown). Ethiopia’s Current Water Supply Ethiopia is among the countries with considerable achievement of MDGs; and has successfully achieved six of the eight MDGs. Despite progressive economic growth, the country lags behind the regional average. Access to safe water has significant impact on the economic development. Considerable progress in Water provision but still needs further effort to catch up with its sub 5|Page

Saharan neighbors: At the beginning of the MDG period Water supply coverage in Ethiopia was very low (13% for Water Supply). However, during the MDG periods the government has made profound change in creating the enabling policy, legal and institutional environment as well as allocated more resource to the sector. These have significantly increased access to improved water supply to 57% (2015) but still below the sub-Saharan average of 68 % for water supply (MoWIE, 2018). Water Resource for Ethiopia Ethiopia is one of the World‘s poorest countries. Out of a population of around 80 million (2008) people, 35 million people are living in abject poverty. In one of the world‘s poorest countries, where about 44 percent of the population lives under the poverty line, more than 12 million people are chronically or at least periodically food insecure. With 80% of Ethiopians dependent on agriculture as their main livelihood, severe arid conditions due to persistent lack of rainfall coupled with civil disputes have worsened Ethiopian poverty (World Bank, 2017). Traditionally the Ethiopian economy has been characterized by subsistence farming that is highly dependent on rainfall and extremely vulnerable to all kinds of shocks. As a result, an overwhelming majority of the country’s people have long suffered from extreme poverty and persistent food crises. Water is an essential element for the environment, food security and sustainable development (Cox, 1987). 95% of Ethiopian farmers are dependent on rainfall, which has been inconsistent in recent years. This has led to investments in small and large-scale irrigation projects. However, a comprehensive analysis of water availability and use is lacking. The construction of hydro dams and the issue of water pollution further complicate this balance (DAG, 2017). According to Rural Economic Development and Food Security’s the population of Ethiopia is currently approaching 100 million. In spite of a reduction in births per family, it is estimated the population will double to 200 million over the next forty years. This burgeoning population will exert greater pressure on already precarious land and water resources and further challenge food security (DAG, 2017). And the country suffered from acute power shortages and where 65% of the population live off-grid, and will make Ethiopia Africa’s biggest power exporter. The energy 6|Page

generated will be enough to have its citizens connected and sell the surplus power to neighboring countries. Ethiopia’s Water politics and development Water politics has gained prime importance in the world as trans-boundary water resources cover nearly half of the earth surface connecting many states. The Nile basin is among the largest river basin in the world connecting several states. As a result of current progress like their increasing number of population, ecosystem degradation and constantly failing rains in addition with the existing poverty, the upstream countries have started to see the Nile as one of the best resource for development (Sakwa, 2015). The past few decades have witnessed tensions due to population growth, poverty, and degradation of the ecosystem and water scarcity that characterized the region. The constant threat of droughts increases the urgency of the problem, and pollution from land-use activities affects downstream water quality. Except for Kenya and Egypt, all of the basin countries are among the world’s 50 poorest nations, making their populations even more vulnerable to famine and disease (Kameri, 2013). The need for a sufficient and constant water supply is essential for these countries in particular in order to protect the lives of the population, support food production among other needs. These countries depend for their economic and social stability on the access to the waters of the river. Ethiopia for example, wants to use the Nile River for hydro-electrical plants and industrial development (Sakwa, 2015). The main development agenda of the Ethiopian government is poverty eradication through broad-based, accelerated and sustained economic growth. Our economic growth and social development plans are set out in the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), which spans three five-year planning periods (2010-2015; 2015-2020 and 2020-2025). Through ‘Agricultural Development-Led Industrialisation’, Ethiopia aims to build an economy which has a modern and productive agricultural sector and a strong industrial sector, ultimately increasing per capita income of the citizens so as to reach the level of those in middle-income countries by 2025 and to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015 (MoWIE,2015).To achieve this 7|Page

development objective the energy sectors is critical and the sole backbone of industrialization of the country. If Ethiopia properly Utilize of Nile water for hydroelectric power generation has been estimated to generate an annual gross economic benefit for the country. Nile River Water Agreements Even before the enactment of the current Nile River Water Agreements, there were a number of protocols that sought to govern the utilization of the Nile waters either directly or indirectly. The earlier agreements were primarily between the colonial powers that had laid claim to different African territories. Some of the more relevant agreements include: the 1891 Anglo-Italian Agreement signed between Britain (which was representing Egypt and Sudan) and Italy (which was representing Eritrea), in which Italy committed not to “construct on the Atbara, in view of irrigation, any work which might sensibly modify its flow into the Nile;”(Art,1902) the 1902 Anglo-Ethiopian Agreement, signed between Britain and Ethiopia to settle the boundary between Ethiopia and Sudan, which stipulated that Ethiopia should not undertake any activities on the Blue Nile and its tributaries that would interfere with the flow of water to the Nile and hence, negatively affect Britain’s cotton-growing interests in Egypt; (Art,1902) the 1906 Tripartite Treaty between France, Britain and Italy, which specifically dealt with the allocation of water in the Ethiopian sub-basin; and the 1925 Anglo-Italian Agreement signed in Rome and purported to provide a structure for the effective allocation of the waters of the Nile with Italy agreeing not to construct any structures on the various rivers that fed into the Nile—a process which Britain feared could severely constrain the flow of water into the Nile and, hence, negatively impact its agricultural interests in Egypt (LNT, 1925). The 1929 agreement was signed between Egypt and Britain (which was representing Sudan and its other colonies in East Africa). Despite the fact that Britain was representing the interests of Sudan, the final agreement granted Egypt virtually unlimited control over the Nile—Egypt claimed the entire timely flow of the river—and actually limited the ability of Sudan to access the waters of the Nile. Specifically, the agreement (1) gave Egypt the right to monitor Nile- related activities by upstream riparian states to make certain that they did not negatively affect availability of water to Egypt’s agricultural projects, and (2) allowed Egypt to veto any construction projects by other riparian considered harmful to Egypt’s interests on the Nile (LNT, 8|Page

1929). The agreement purported to bound upstream riparian even though they were neither signatories nor participants in its development (Christina and Knobelsdorf, 1999, 2006). After estimating the Nile’s average production of water to be roughly 84 billion cubic meters per year, the 1929 agreement allocated 48 billion cubic meters per year to Egypt; 4 billion cubic meters per year to Sudan; and the remaining 32 billion cubic meters for possible allocation between the upstream riparian states (Art, 1959). Unlike the 1929 Agreement, the 1959 Agreement is the first agreement concluded by independent riparian states. In terms of substance and objective, however, it is not different from the 1929 agreement as it purportedly created a complete monopoly over the waters of the Nile. Despite the baseless claim of the parties, the complete monopoly created by the agreement has no legal basis whatsoever. As a bilateral treaty signed by Egypt and Sudan, whatever rights and obligations it created bind only the parties (Article 34 and 35, 1969). For the upstream riparian states which are third parties, the agreement is of no legal significance as it neither confers any right nor imposes any obligation on them (Article 34, 35, and 36, 1969). The most fundamental principles which define the rights and obligations of riparian states are the principle of equitable and reasonable utilization and the obligation not to cause significant harm. What is expected from Ethiopian Side? Emphasizing that water is critical for sustainable development and the eradication of poverty and hunger. Ethiopia seems, this time around, to have taken its lessons from history that mere assertion of a right, however legitimate and well founded in law and equity, and does not make a difference in reality unless the claimant demonstrates resolve to back it up with action. The trajectory of the new strategy becomes even more evident when the questionable limitation of the purpose of the GERD –a national project fully financed by Ethiopia– to power generation is contrasted with huge hydraulic projects launched by Egypt and Sudan with no discussion on what their purposes should be. The Southern Valley (Toshka) project in Egypt and Merowe Dam in the Sudan are prime examples. Ethiopia should ensure the equitable and sustainable utilization of the Nile waters for the benefit of all, and the negotiations undertaken among the three countries and any agreement made among them should be consider as the monumental in its 9|Page

implications for current and future Ethiopian generations economic development needs as well as national interest. Ethiopia should use all available means to brief the international community about her right to use its’ water resource. In a world of concentrated wealth and major Egyptians conflicts of interest, to fulfill this role Ethiopia needs to design strategies and techniques that help her to influence the heart and mind of the international community. Ethiopia is a country with more than 100 million people and has an acute shortage of electricity, with 65% of its population not connected to the grid. While the Blue Nile River and other tributaries contribute to more than 80% of the total water flow of the Nile, a system of global injustice that has barred Ethiopia from using its own water resources to generate electricity and change the lives of its poor people(Basillioh,2020). Conclusion Water politics has gained prime importance in the world as trans-boundary water resources cover nearly half of the earth surface connecting many states. The Nile basin is among the largest river basin in the world connecting several states. Emphasizing that water is critical for sustainable development and the eradication of poverty and hunger. Even before the enactment of the current Nile River Water Agreements, there were a number of protocols that sought to govern the utilization of the Nile waters either directly or indirectly. The earlier agreements were primarily between the colonial powers that had laid claim to different African territories. The Hydro politics of the Nile basin is further complicated not only by lack of availability of alternative water source but also due to Egypt’s arrogance behavior that hinders from cooperating with others riparian states. Both Egypt and Sudan depend on the river as they lack the necessary rainfall amount and other water sources to sustain their agriculture and other needs. Ethiopia also highly needs to utilize the River as its most part lacks the necessary rainfall amount and alternative water resources. As a result, stress and competition among these countries is high. Availability of alternative water sources also has affected the degree of concern of riparian states in the Nile basin. As the two downstream countries and Ethiopia lack the necessary alternative water resources to satisfy their water needs, they highly engage in water related issues 10 | P a g e

in the basin. On the other hand, the remaining upstream countries have been less active in such issues as they have the necessary alternative water resources to satisfy their needs. Ethiopia upholds the principles of equitable and reasonable utilization and the causing of no significant harm on any other riparian country in the use of the waters of the Nile. All the treaties signed between the colonial powers, Egypt and Sudan, denied Ethiopia’s sovereign right over the use of its own water resources. Ethiopia through the years has rejected all Nile River related treaties that violated its sovereignty and denied its natural right over the Nile. However, during the colonial era most of African countries controlled by these colonizers, Ethiopia neither had the diplomatic muscle nor the military might to protect its interest or to regain its use of the Nile water. Egypt also has been using different strategies to hinder Ethiopia’s attempt to develop its water resources on the Blue Nile and its tributaries. Military expeditions to control the source of the Blues Nile, destabilizing Ethiopia by supporting disgruntled internal forces, blocking loan or financial aid for the construction of dams on the Blue Nile or threatening the use of military force are the major strategies Egypt used to deter any development project on the Blue Nile River and its tributaries. Back in 2011 when the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was announced, Egypt completely opposed the construction of the dam citing the colonial era treaties that gave her veto power over the construction of dam on the Nile River and its tributaries. Also Egypt flexed her diplomatic muscle and convinced the IMF, the World Bank and many other donor nations and organizations to not finance the GERD. Nine years later today, Egypt using US and the World Bank to pressure Ethiopia not to commence the filling of the Dam. Recommendation Recommendations As stated elsewhere, one of the compelling findings of this study is that increasing demand on Nile River water is a vital regional interest. Evidence has consistently shown that the Nile basin is at its greatest level of water stress. This has prompted countries to redesign policies that are aimed at addressing the emerging challenge. If this phenomenon is not dealt with in a manner that it is acceptable to all countries, it may trigger a sub-regional war. 11 | P a g e

The Government of Ethiopia should work the existing mechanisms of cooperation that will allow resolution of differences and Ethiopia need remind the need to refrain the Egyptian negative media and other campaigns against GERD. Our Medias and diplomats create awareness about GERD benefits for these downstream countries that will increase the confidence among the three countries. The Government of Ethiopia should reinforce its efforts to realize development of its water resource to meet the present and future needs of its people that deserve development and adequate standard of living. Ethiopia has to uphold the principles of equitable and reasonable utilization and the causing of no significant harm on any other riparian country in the use of the waters of the Nile. Furthermore, the Government of Ethiopia should continue to follow an approach that will not result in direct or indirect recognition of any preexisting water allocation treaty, which has no applicability whatsoever on Ethiopia. Ethiopians government should see the ancient river’s waters as a matter of national sovereignty seeing that the country could not be expected to be bound by a colonial agreement to build its own dam over the Nile. Ethiopia deserves its fair share of the Nile to lift its people out of poverty in a fair and equitable way. The Nile riparian states should negotiate to reach a win-win solutions that will enable all parties achieve satisfactory results and a lasting agreement. 12 | P a g e

References Articles 34, 35 and 36, Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties 1969, 1155 UNTS 331. Art. 1(1)-(2) of United Arab Republic and Sudan Agreement (With Annexes) for the Full Utilization of the Nile Waters, Signed at Cairo, on November 8, 1959, 6519 U.N.T.S. 63 (“The 1959 Agreement”); in force December 12, 1959, specifically the 1929 Nile Waters Agreement assigned Egypt “48 Milliards [billions] of cubic meters per year as measured at Aswan” and Sudan “4 Milliards of cubic meters per year as measured at Aswan.” Art. III. Treaties Relative to the Frontiers between Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea, May 15, 1902, Eth.-Gr.Brit.-Italy. Exchange of Notes Between the United Kingdom and Italy Respecting Concessions for a Barrage at Lake Tsana and a Railway Across Abyssinia from Eritrea to Italian Somaliland, December 14 and 20, 1925, No. 1 & No. 2, League of Nations Treaty Series, No. 1211. Basillioh Mutahi(2020). Egypt-Ethiopia row: The trouble over a giant Nile dam. BBC News, Nairobi. March, 2020 Available on line at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-50328647 Belalu Atnafu Taye (2017).Ethnic federalism and conflict in Ethiopia. Addis Ababa,7 DEC 2017.p.7 Cox WE (1987). The role of water in socio-economic development. France: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. Development Assistance Group,(2017). Development Effectiveness in Ethiopia. DAG annual report 2016/17.December 2017. Development Assistance Group Ethiopiap.16 Ethiopia People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) Program Encyclopedia Bartannica Macrop/Edia, (Chicago: Helen Hemming Way, 1973-1974), Volume 19. FDRE Ministry of Water Resource (Unknown). Ethiopian Water Resources Management Policy. Addis Ababa. P.i 13 | P a g e

FDRE Ministry of Water, Irrigation & Energy, (2015) Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy Climate Resilience Strategy: Water and Energy. Addis Ababa. P.2 FDRE Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity (2018). One WaSH-Consolidated WaSH Account Project (One WaSH-CWA), Updated final Draft Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) Addis Ababa, November 2018.p4 Exchange of Notes between His Majesty’s Government in the United Kingdom and the Egyptian Government in Regard to the Use of the Waters of the River Nile for Irrigation Purposes (May 7, 1929), League of Nations Treaty Series, No. 2103, at 46. Levine, M. Herbert. (1983).World Politics Debated, A Reader in contemporary issues,(USA: Mc Graw-Hill,inc,)p.45. Rajput, Muhammad Idris (2007) Water problems: perspective from Sindh. Problems and politics water sharing and management in Pakistan. Edited by Parvez Iqbal Cheema, Rashid Ahmad Khan, Ahmad Rashed Malik, Islamabad Policy Research Institute. Ministry of Water and Energy (2013), Water and Energy Sector Development Researchable issues/problems and list of research outputs/index. Research and Development Directorate, March 2012, Addis Ababa, p.1. Seleshi Bekele; Makonnen Loulseged; Aster Denekew, (2007). Impact of Irrigation on Poverty and Environment in Ethiopia,Draft Proceeding of the Symposium and Exhibition held at Ghion Hotel, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. 27th -29th November, 2007. p.2 Sakwa Maureen Wesonga(2015), “The impact of water politics on regional security: a case study of Nile Basin States”,MA thesis submitted to university of Nairobi, Kenya November 2015.p3,7 Christina Carroll, “Past and Future Legal Framework of the Nile River Basin,” 12 Georgetown International Environmental Law Review, 269, 278 (1999); and Knobelsdorf (2006), p. 628. 14 | P a g e

Kameri-Mbote, Patricia. “Water, Conflict and Cooperation: Lessons from the Nile River Basin”. In: Navigating Peace, N° 4, August 2013. Available Online at: www.wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/NavigatingPeaceIssuePKM.pdf World Bank, (2017). Facts about Ethiopia and poverty in Ethiopia (website search). Ephrem Madebo: The Grand Renaissance Dam, Ethiopia, Egypt and the United States, March 16, 2020 https://borkena.com/2020/03/16/the-grand-renaissance-dam-ethiopiaegypt-and-the-united-states/ Mehari T. Maru: The Emergence of another African Conflict: Egypt, Ethiopia and Geopolitics of the Renaissance Dam. March, 2020 Available on line at: https://studies.aljazeera.net/en/reports/emergence-another-african-conflict-egypt-ethiopia-and- geopolitics-renaissance-dam 15 | P a g e

16 | P a g e