Emerging technologies

Emerging technologies and the future of warfare Dr. Victor Gervais Strategic Trends (5) June 2021

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Contents Abstract 1 Trends in warfare 2 5 Hypersonic weapons 12 3. Directed energy weapons 13 4. Biotechnology 17 5. Quantum technologies 20 Conclusion 24 References 27 About the author 30 32 36

Abstract A consensus has grown among experts and policymakers that emerging technologies have the potential to change the character of war. Indeed, rapid advances in artificial intelligence, robotics, data processing, quantum computing, and other emerging technologies seem to be taken warfare into new and unexpected directions. As with previous era of rapid progress in science and technology, military organizations will be expected to evolve, adapt, and innovate in order to maintain a competitive advantage vis-à-vis states or non- states adversaries. In a future conflict environment characterized by expanding dimensions, converging domains and sensor proliferation, as well as increasing weapon ranges, speed, autonomy, lethality, and compressed time horizons, the transformative impact of these technologies is likely to manifest itself along the whole spectrum of military engagement and warfare – from great-power, hybrid and hyper wars to memetic warfare. In this regard, this paper highlights a number of trends in warfare that many experts believe will shape the way emerging military technologies are likely to be employed in the future. Reflecting the significance of new technologies in the conduct of armed conflict today, it also provides an assessment of selected key emerging military technologies that have the potential to play a major role in future warfare, including robotics and autonomous systems, hypersonic weapons, directed-energy weapons, biotechnologies, quantum technologies. For each of these technologies, this paper reviews current programs and areas for research and development, considers potentials for future military applications, and outlines broader implications for the strategic, operational and tactical aspects of warfare.

Emerging technologies and the future of warfare Dr. Victor Gervais Introduction What will future wars and armed conflicts look like? How will they be fought? This paper addresses these questions by examining trends in emerging technologies that are likely to play a significant role in future warfare. It aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the future technology landscape and describe the risks and opportunities presented by integrating emerging military technologies into existing military forces and concepts of operations. In recent years, a consensus has grown among experts and policymakers that emerging technologies have the potential to change the character of war. Indeed, rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, data processing, quantum computing, and other emerging technologies seem to have taken warfare into new and unexpected directions. As noted by General Sir Richard Barrons, former commander of Joint Forces Command (UK): “The same wide span of Fourth Industrial Revolution technology that is changing how we live, work and play will now transform the way war is waged.”(1) As with the previous era of rapid progress in science and technology, military organizations will be expected to evolve, adapt, and innovate to maintain a competitive advantage vis- (1) Richard Barrons, “The nature of warfare is changing. Its Time Governments caught up,” Wired, October 4, 2017.

à-vis states or non-state adversaries. Among major powers, the potential implications of emerging military technologies have been primarily seen from the viewpoint of intensifying strategic competition, characterized by the confluence of political, economic, and military-technological rivalries in the context of major shifts in the global security environment. As the US Interim national Security Strategic Guidance of March 2021 warned, “the world’s leading powers are racing to develop and deploy emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, that could shape […] (the) military balance among states. [We] must reinvest in retaining our scientific and technological edge and once again lead, working alongside our partners to establish the new rules and practices that will allow us to seize the opportunities that advance in technology present.”(2) However, as new technologies proliferate and expand to more actors with lower entry barriers, maintaining a technological edge will be increasingly challenging. Moreover, in a future conflict environment characterized by expanding dimensions, converging domains and sensor proliferation, and increasing weapon ranges, speed, autonomy, lethality, and compressed time horizons. The transformative impact of these technologies is likely to manifest itself well beyond the realm of great power competitions to include the whole spectrum of military engagement and warfare (2) This was echoed by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who reminded member countries of the Organization that its “technological edge has always been an essential enabler of its ability to deter and defend against potential adversaries. Our future security will depend on our and hypersonic systems.” “NATO: Ready for the Future – Adapting the Alliance (2018-2019),” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 2019. 3

– from great-power, hybrid, and hyper wars to memetic warfare.(3) This paper aims to provide a broader, more comprehensive understanding of the potential implications of emerging technologies for warfighting. It first highlights several trends in warfare that many experts believe will shape the way emerging military technologies are likely to be employed in the future. Reflecting the significance of new technologies in the conduct of armed conflict today, it then provides an assessment of selected key emerging military technologies that have the potential to play a major role in future warfare: Robotics and autonomous systems Hypersonic weapons Directed-energy weapons Biotechnologies Quantum technologies For each of these technologies, this paper reviews current programs and areas for research and development, considers potentials for future military applications and outlines broader implications for the strategic, operational, and tactical aspects of warfare. (3) The central role played by private sector companies in the development of dual-use technologies have had various implications, including shorter innovation cycles, especially in the area of hubs emerging in Asia – that are challenging western technological dominance and military superiority. “Science & Technology Trends 2020-2040. Exploring the S&T Edge,” NATO, March 2020. 4