Pharos 2020

PHAROS 2020

“We wanderers, ever seeking the lonelier way, begin no day where we have ended another day; and no sunrise finds us where sunset left us.” - Khalil Gibran -

CONTENTS 3 Welcome letter 4 Welcome letter Dean Rachel Kyte Professor Nadim Rouhana 5 Welcome letter 7 Pharos Team Professor Ibrahim Warde Text 9 H.E. Mohammad Jusuf 10 Yemen at the edge Kalla 12 \"Forbidden\" - with Amal 11 Foreign Policy Auction Ramsis 13 Policy in the age of trump 14 The Levant Express 15 The Arab Spring 16 \"MBS\" with Ben Hubbard Aftershocks 18 Environmental In(Security) 17 Policy in the age of trump in the Middle East 19 A Time for Reform 21 A New Reality in Northern Syria 24 About Fares Center 00 XXX 00 XXX 00 XXX 00 XXX 00 XXX

Dean Rachel Kyte Dear friends, colleagues, and fellow members of the Fletcher community, I am honored to share the newest edition of Pharos, which details the extensive and impactful work of The Fares Center for Eastern Mediterranean Studies under the directorship of Dr. Ibrahim Warde. These past two years have been full of important conversations, insightful research, and meaningful engagement around a region which remains academically and politically critical. The Fares Center has helped The Fletcher School remain at the center of ongoing dialogue about the Eastern Mediterranean and surrounding regions. From the Fall of 2018 through the Spring of 2020, The Fares Center continued to host notable visitors and compelling events, covering topics ranging from finance to faith and gender to conflict. Perhaps most significantly, the efforts of The Fares Center have been led primarily by students of The Fletcher School, reflecting the quality of our institution and its stakeholders. These students have been the driving force behind some of Fletcher’s most popular recent events, including conversations with then Vice President of Indonesia His Excellency Mohammad Jusuf Kalla and Prince Moulay Hicham Alaoui of Morocco. These events are discussed in more detail here in Pharos. In addition to these events, The Fares Center has also produced insightful research and analysis. Students have researched both historical and current topics relevant to the region, the result of which can be read online as well as this publication. They have also reinvigorated The Fares Center Podcast on Spotify, which has allowed the broader Fletcher community to access the contributions of the many notable figures that have visited our campus. As we witness the many important changes taking place in our community, The Fares Center remains a vibrant example of The Fletcher School’s commitment to diversity, rigor, and academic excellence. I am excited for you to read about The Fares Center’s recent work, and I look forward to this next chapter of its contribution to The Fletcher School. PHAROS 2020  |   3

Professor Nadim Rouhana Dear Friends of the Fares Center, It is my pleasure to share the 2020 edition of Pharos, a publication that showcases the research, events, and activities of the Fares Center for Eastern Mediterranean Studies at The Fletcher School at Tufts University. This edition of Pharos coincides with my first semester as Director of the Fares Center. For the past two years, the Center has flourished under the leadership of Interim Director Ibrahim Warde, who hosted numerous distinguished speakers and high-profile events. Under his tenure, student involvement at the Fares Center has increased greatly, with students managing the center, finding a home to publish capstones, and honing their research expertise via articles and policy papers. I thank Dr. Warde for his dedication to providing a space to critically analyze the common narrative of a war-torn region, and for his commitment to upholding academic excellence at The Fletcher School, the Fares Center, and beyond. Pivotal to the 2019-2020 goals of the Fares Center was integrating the various communities from which our members stem - not only the Fletcher community and Tufts University at large, but our local community in Boston and our friends and colleagues in the Middle East and North Africa. As the new Director of the Fares Center, I will further expand upon this effort, beginning with a series of virtual events open to the universal public. The themes for this academic year include repercussions of the historic Abraham Accords, the economic collapse of Lebanon and possibilities for recovery, and the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. As you flip through the pages of the publication, you will see that such a diverse array of topics is customary for the Fares Center; indeed, the Center borrows an interdisciplinary approach directly from the Fletcher School, providing an ideal environment for future policymakers to thrive. Be it through events, our Podcast Series, or contributing to our publications, I sincerely hope you will join the Fares Center as we continue to provide a space for congenial debate while pushing the boundaries of traditional regional studies. PHAROS 2020  |  4

Professor Ibrahim Warde Jamal Khashoggi was a towering figure in the world of Arab media. An insider and sometime critic of Saudi royals, he credibly played the roles of participant, observer and explainer to the outside world. He first made his reputation in Afghanistan as he reported, favorably, on Usama bin Laden and the Afghan jihad. He was later a spokesman for the Saudi embassies in London and Washington. His 2011 writings on the Arab Spring signaled the beginnings of a more independent streak. While the Saudi government favored repression, Khashoggi sided with the forces of change, pluralism and democracy throughout the Islamic world. With the steady rise of Mohammed bin Salman, commonly known as MBS, challenges confronting the journalist mounted. The relations of the Kingdom with the United States were closer than ever. For his first visit abroad, Donald Trump had chosen Saudi Arabia. The king threw a dazzling reception and promised, according to Trump, to inject $450 billion in the American economy through the purchase of weapons and other items. Sidelining the Secretaries of State and Defense, Senior adviser and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner was now working directly with MBS on the “deal of the century”—a comprehensive solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict based on Israeli preferences and the need to confront Iran. By now, Khashoggi was systematically departing from the official narrative, criticizing the “reforms” of the crown prince, the war in Yemen, and Trump’s policy toward Saudi Arabia. Once an insider, Khashoggi was now shunned by the political and media establishment. He remained nonetheless an influential editor and columnist with some 2 million Twitter followers. The last straw occurred when Prince Khaled bin Sultan, publisher of the influential, London-based, pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat announced with great fanfare that the paper was severing its relationship with him. In September 2017, he decided to go into self-imposed exile in Alexandria, Virginia, where he soon started writing a regular column for the Washington Post. Published in English, his articles were translated into Arabic and reached a broad audience. PHAROS 2020  |  5

A mutual friend had put me in contact with Jamal Khashoggi, who enthusiastically agreed to give a lecture on Saudi Arabia at the Fares Center. On September 28, 2018, while in Istanbul to get divorce papers from the Saudi Consulate so he could marry his Turkish fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, he confirmed his visit and his desire to address Fletcher students and faculty. At the Consulate that day, he was told that the paperwork was not ready and that he needed to come back the following Tuesday. A few dissidents warned him that this could be a trap, but the Saudi Ambassador to Washington, Prince Khalid bin Salman (the brother of MBS), personally reassured him that he would neither be harmed nor sent back to Saudi Arabia. On Tuesday, October 2, at 12:53p.m. EST (7:53p.m. Turkish time), I received an ominous text message from my friend: “Jamal went missing after going to Saudi Consulate in Istanbul!!!!” What happened next is widely known. The Saudi Consulate claimed that Khashoggi left the embassy after completing his formality. Six days later, Prince Khalid bin Salman was still repeating the Saudi version of events: “I assure you that the reports that suggest that Jamal Khashoggi went missing in the Consulate in Istanbul or that the Kingdom’s authorities have detained him or killed him are absolutely false, and baseless.” Finally, on October 19, Saudi Arabia acknowledged the death of the journalist, claiming that he died during an altercation in the consulate. But the Turkish authorities had monitored and recorded all the details of the operation and were releasing the evidence in dribs and drabs. A 15-member hit squad led by close advisers of the Saudi crown prince had arrived in Istanbul on October 2. The team also included a forensic doctor armed with a bone-saw, and a “body double” who would wear the journalist’s clothes soon after the killing in order to create a misleading trail for the surveillance cameras. Recordings show that Khashoggi was strangulated and dismembered soon after he entered the Consulate. The bone-saw doctor was heard reassuring his team: “It will be easy. Joints will be separated. It is not a problem. The body is heavy. First time I cut on the ground. If we take plastic bags and cut it into pieces, it will be finished. We will wrap each of them.” In November, the CIA concluded that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the assassination of the journalist, as did other investigations, including that of Agnes Callamard, special rapporteur on extrajudicial execution at the United Nations. Bipartisan legislations were adopted in Congress to impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia but were vetoed by President Trump, who continued defending the crown prince as a “dear friend” and “steadfast partner.” In his book Rage, Bob Woodward quotes President Trump as saying of MBS: “I saved his ass. I was able to get Congress to leave him alone. I was able to get them to stop.”. PHAROS 2020  |  6

PHAROS - TEAM Magazine content: Ben Ben has worked with The Fares Center since January 2020, when he began his M.A. in Law and Diplomacy at The Fletcher School. His academic and professional interests include international politics, security, and religion. Before attending Fletcher, Ben worked for two years in Beirut, Lebanon with an NGO focusing on conflict resolution and humanitarian aid. He also received his B.A. in International Relations and certificate in Conflict Management from Pepperdine University. Marina Within the M.A. in Law and Diplomacy program, Marina is pursuing concentrations in International Negotiation & Conflict Resolution as well as Southwest Asia & Islamic Civilization.  She has a particular interest in diplomatic negotiation, sanctions, and arms control.  Prior to graduate school, Marina held two roles focused on exchange between the US and MENA Region at the American Middle East Institute and at Al Akhawayn University in Ifrane, Morocco. Rachel Rachel has served as the Fares Center's Event Coordinator since 2018, and holds an M.A. in Law and Diplomacy from The Fletcher School. Prior to attending Fletcher, Rachel completed a Fulbright in Agadir, Morocco, and served as the CDC's liaison in the Moroccan Ministries of Health and Interior. She is currently a Boren Fellow, and will spend next year furthering her study of Arabic in Muscat, Oman. Magazine design: Eda PHAROS 2020  |  7

EVENT REPORTS

DECEMBER 2016 PROFILE H.E. MOHAMMAD JUSUF KALLA OOn September 21, 2018, The Fletcher School, with He also highlighted his nation’s role in assisting other support from The Fares Center, hosted The Vice countries as they seek to avoid the path of President of Indonesia His Excellency Mohammad radicalization and extremism. In Indonesia and Jusuf Kalla as he neared the end of his second term elsewhere, this approach had helped combat in office. The discussion, facilitated by Director of terrorism and reduce violence. This has underscored The Fares Center Ibrahim Warde in Fletcher’s the positive influence of Islam and Islamic actors in ASEAN auditorium, focused on peacemaking, the promoting a culture of peace and tolerance. role of Islam is world affairs, and economic investment and development. The event closed with a discussion of development and investment. His excellency stated his belief that In addition to his two terms as Indonesia’s Vice economic changes were necessary for cultural President, His Excellency has also served as the changes, especially in countries or regions where Chairman of the Indonesian Red Cross Society. radicalization is still a challenge. These changes Previously, he was involved in a number of might come be driven by foreign investment, which peacemaking initiatives in his native Indonesia, in turn require capital, skill, and technology. helping to end significant conflicts and earning him a reputation as an astute conflict resolution His Excellency has since stepped down from the practitioner. office of Vice President, but, as he promised the audience at Fletcher, has remained active in the On the topic of peacemaking, His Excellency advised Indonesian Red Cross Society and in other students to take the path of neutrality when philanthropic roles in Indonesia. addressing conflict. PHAROS 2020  |  9

YEMEN AT THE EDGE AAt the end of November 2018, The shared challenges and a way to move Fares Center hosted Abby Maxman, toward peace and stability. the President and CEO of OXFAM America, for Yemen at the Edge: Although the prospects for peace in Humanitarian Protection, Needs and Yemen remain slim, Ms. Maxman Rights. Ms. Maxman joined OXFAM expressed hope that recent America in 2017 after more than 30 developments signal an important years in the humanitarian relief and shift. It is clear from her description development sector. Her experience, of the humanitarian situation that both past and present, make her more urgent measures are needed to uniquely qualified to discuss the end the suffering of the Yemeni ongoing crisis in Yemen, which people. demands a concerted effort at both peace and humanitarian response. Ms. Maxman detailed Yemen’s challenging conditions prior to the war, including inequality and weak institutions, which were only made worse when the Saudi-led coalition began its air campaign shortly after the conflict began. Yemenis are now facing widespread difficulty in accessing food, as well as the rapid spread of diseases like cholera. Meanwhile, the international community continues to debate the broader political aspects of the conflict, and the United States justifies its involvement by pointing to the need to counter Iran’s influence in the region. While she spread blame for the crisis in Yemen on all parties, she highlighted specifically the enormous impact of Saudi Arabia’s efforts to restore the previous government through indiscriminate air attacks. These have killed or injured countless Yemeni civilians, while encouraging those who survive to support the Houthi rebels. Ms. Maxman further pointed out that this crisis is entirely man-made, endangering over 14 million people every day. While the international community and organizations like OXFAM must help foster conditions for negotiation and peace between Yemeni groups, it is ultimately their responsibility to find solutions to PHAROS 2020  |  10

FOREIGN POLICY AUCTION OOn April 9, 2019, The Fares Center According to Dr. Freeman, one of the Perhaps most significantly, Dr. hosted a lunch and discussion with most notorious perpetrators was in Freeman identified specific senators Ben Freeman, Director of the Foreign fact Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Party, who had accepted funds from Gulf Influence Transparency Initiative which led to the 1938 passing of FARA countries, highlighting their outsize (FITI). Dr. Freeman focuses on -The Foreign Agents Registration Act. influence in the U.S. Congress. In exposing the influence of foreign doing so, Dr. Freeman shed light on governments on U.S. policy and Dr. Freeman highlighted the legal an issue that will continue to impact elections. He also wrote The Foreign ways that Gulf funding influences Fletcher students as they move Policy Auction, the first book to policy in Washington. We often think forward in the American and systematically analyze the impact of first of “nefarious lobbying,” when international political sphere. foreign influence in U.S. foreign actors use illegal channels to policymaking. achieve policy goals in the United States. Our discussion with Dr. Freeman focused specifically on the influence Often though, this influence is gained of Gulf money in U.S. politics. through methods which protect these However, he first detailed the history actors from litigation or other forms of foreign influence, stating that it has of consequence, helping to legitimize been present since the country’s and sustain their interactions with founding. American policymakers. PHAROS 2020  |  11

DECEMBER 2016 PROFILE \"FORBIDDEN\" - WITH AMAL RAMSIS IIn October 2019, The Fares Center collaborated with During the Q&A session, Ramsis asked students to Tufts’ Center for the Humanities (CHAT) to host bear in mind that while nearly a decade has passed filmmaker Amal Ramsis. Tufts Professor of Arabic & since the uprisings, repression in all forms is still Comparative Literature Kamran Rastegar facilitated constant in Egypt as the regime “has yet to fall”. Both the screening of Ramsis’ recent film, as well as a Q&A Ramsis’ documentary and blunt honesty were greatly session with the artist. appreciated by the Tufts audience, and are key considerations as Fletcher students further Shot just five months before the revolution, Ramsis’ contemplate the ‘mirage effect’ in a post-Arab Spring Forbidden explores the idea that Egyptian society Egypt. both facilitates and inhibits all things taboo. Primarily through interviews, Forbidden examines the daily lives of Egyptian citizens at a time when tension was palpable in every corner of Cairo. The documentary relates the history of a period pre-revolution, with Ramsis’ final edits made on January 25th, 2011. A commentary on the hypocrisies and suppression of the Egyptian regime, Fletcher and undergraduate students alike were pleased to welcome Ramsis and view her work. Following the screening, students were given the opportunity to ask Ramsis questions on subjects ranging from the participation of women in Cairene communities to the process of filmmaking. PHAROS 2020  |  12

POLICY IN THE AGE OF TRUMP IIn November 2019,the Center for the are increasingly skeptical of these a leftist activist and mother’s familyhad Humanities at Tufts Universityandthe efforts. Over ten years, Dr. Bajoghlimet worked in Mohammad Reza Shah’sand Fares Center for Eastern Mediterrean with men intheIRGC, Ansar Hezbollah, Prime Minister osaddegh’s Studies hosted a discussion between and Basij paramilitary organizations to governments). ProfessorNargesBajoghliof Johns investigate how their media producers Hopkins University and Professor developedstrategies to court Iranian It was critical for her to gain the NaghmehSohrabi of Brandeis University. youth. trust of high-rankingmembers within The conversation presented findings the IRGC. As she explains, working from Professor Bajoghli’s most recent Dr. Bajoghli emphasizes the need for closely with veterans of the Iran-Iraq book, Iran Reframed: Anxieties of scholars to pivot away from waron a documentary, “The Skin That Power in the Islamic Republic, an inside understanding the 1979 Revolution and Burns,” about survivors of chemical look intothe Iranian Revolutionary contemporary Iranian society strictly warfare allowed Dr. Bajoghli to gain Guard Corps (IRGC), pro- through the lens of political Shia credibility and introductions into the regimepropaganda in Iran, and Islam. Instead, she recognizes that the state-sponsored media production.In perspectives on thefuture of the Islamic appeal of the Islamic Republic is order to conduct this research, Johns Republic. derived from issues around socio- Hopkins University had to pay over economic status, inter-generational $50,000 in legal fees due to the U.S. Now entering its fifth decade in power, differences, and social mobility (or lack sanctions regime. the Iranian regime faces the paradox of thereof). Long-term participant any successful revolution: how to information. Moving forward, Dr. Bajoghli plans to transmit the commitments of its pursueacademic projects “on the other political project to the next generation. In the discussion, Dr. Bajoghli shared side of the coin” –the impetus for New media ventures supported by the how she navigated herown identity as an negative rhetoric and propaganda in the Islamic Republic attempt to win the Iranian-American, whom the regime US against Iran. hearts and minds of younger Iranians. routinely labels as spies, and a child of Yet members of this new generation - counter-revolutionaries (her father was  whether dissidents or fundamentalists - PHAROS 2020  |  13

THE LEVANT EXPRESS OOn February 13, 2020, The Fares Center hosted its first event of the For Dr. Ishay, this plan begins with the new semester with Dr. Micheline Ishay, a professor at The Korbel recognition and implementation of School and a widely respected voice in political theory, human rights, Roosevelt’s Four Freedoms -of speech, of and foreign policy. She visited Fares to discuss her latest book, The worship, from want, andfrom fear. To these Levant Express: The Arab Uprisings, Human Rights, and the Future of she added a fifth, freedom from sexual the Middle East. discrimination, specifically for the women of the region, who face daily challenges in their Dr. Ishay’s observations are drawn in part from her time as a communities. She believes that these five professor at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, where she witnessed the freedoms are critical for the Middle East to beginning of the uprisings from a unique perspective. There, working achieve peace and a dignified life for all its as one of the few female scholars in the field, she taught one of the people. first courses in human rights in the Arab World. This experience helped shape her views on the political and social situation in the The Levant Express provides an apt Middle East, as well as a plan to move toward a more stable and metaphor for the process envisioned by Dr. prosperous region. Ishay, but it also symbolizes a real proposal she thinks can revitalize the region. She has suggested the rebuilding of the historic tracks that connected the Arab World, The Hejaz Railway. This project might help unite the Arab people beyond their respective borders while stimulating economic growth for countries in the region. This book and discussion presented a framework throughwhich we can observe the current state of the Middle East, as well as concrete ideas for a way forward. Only time will if these proposals can be implemented and provide hope for a challenged region, but Dr. Ishay has presented a compelling case for optimism in the coming years. PHAROS 2020  |  14

DECEMBER 2016 THE ARAB SPRING AFTERSHOCKS IIn February of 2020, the Fares Center welcomed former Prince Alaoui cited numerous factors Director Warde asked Alaoui if he Moulay Hicham Alaoui of which have allowed for a believes in the resiliency of monarchies Morocco. In conversation with reawakening in protests and in the region. Alaoui replied that the Director Ibrahim Warde, Mr. dissent in the region’s youth; chief legitimacy and power which stems from Alaoui discussed the aftershocks among them the growing youth a monarchy is indeed deeply-rooted in of the Arab Spring, and the new bulge. The desire for young men wave of popular uprisings and and women toemigrate is only Arab ociety,and geopolitical shifts occurring in exacerbated by economic often revered by the Middle Eastand North Africa. stagnationand skyrocketing the people. unemployment, resulting in a Yet,he elaborated Known as Morocco’s “Rebel “staggering 70% of Moroccans that Kingdoms Prince”,HichamAlaoui formally aged 18-29 wantingto leave”. have lost the asked King Mohammed VI to be opportunity to relieved of his title and removed As many scholars agree, Alaoui capitalize on this from the line of succession. He believes the so-called “Arab potential through holds the rare position of a royal Spring” resulted in authoritarian their rejection of who suggests reform of the regimes choosing a “reversion to democracy and monarchy, and his firsthand violence and repression” rather reform. “Saying experience as amost than consideringmore democratic this will get me unusualdissident resulted ina futures. Such a reversion has only in trouble back fascinating discussion at The inspired what Alaoui termedas home. But Fletcher School. dégagisme (“get-out”-ism), trouble is my wherecitizen’s shared desire is middlename,” the removal of political elites. added Alaoui. PHAROS 2020  |  15

\"MBS\" WITH BEN HUBBARD IIn April 2020, New York Times’ Beirut Khashoggi was scheduled to speak at the The developments in the foreign policy Bureau Chief and journalist,Ben Fletcher School after a pit stop in of Saudi Arabia underscore MBS’s key Hubbard,zoomed in from Beirut and Istanbul, but the rest of the events priorities for the country.MBS seeks to spoke to Fletcher students.Hubbard are now a part of a gruesome history. diversify the country’s economy away hasreportedfromtheMiddleEastformore from oil exports, attract foreign thanadecade,whilecoveringcivilwars,po Continuing to provide perspective on investors, and position the country as a pculture,andreligion.In the session, he Saudi Arabia’s strategic priorities, global tech hub. This is most evident provided an overview of political and Hubbard shifted to Saudi Arabia’s recent through the stated $500 billionproject in economic relations between US and activitiesin the Middle East, signaling the northern desert, Neom. However, Saudi Arabia as well as an MBS’ departure from the long-standing since its announcement in Oct. 2017, the introduction to his first book, MBS: The positons of his father.While MBS does megacity project has floundered largely Rise toPower of Mohammed bin maintain the country as a counterweight becauseof foreign investors exhibiting Salman. to Iran within the region, he has low confidence in the profitability of the intervened in Qatar and Yemen in project. European and North American Prior to MBS’ position as theMinister of unprecedented ways while reigning in investors are largely hesitant due to the Defense, theinternationalcommunity financial support to Lebanon via the Kingdom’s human rights record and lack would not have imagined his rise to Sunni political wing. The attempted of legal reform to protect investors. the current positionof Crown Prince. hacking of Hubbard’s phone in 2018 by Furthermore, in the current climate, the He was the eldest son of the second Saudi operatives underscores MBS’ impacts of COVID-19 and the oil price (according to some accounts, third) vision for increased covert operations dispute among OPEC+ countries, are not wife of the 25th son of Abdulaziz Ibn and intelligence capabilities of the assuring MBS to fulfill Vision Saud, the founding king of the nation. country.Meanwhile, MBS is also 2030.Hubbard underlined the Since the death of King Abdulaziz in priming his countryfor a diplomatic importance for MBS to make critical 1953, the monarchy has passed the relationship with Israel, while pursuing decisions moving forward in order to crown from one brother to another quiet business deals withIsraeli security recover the country’s economic potential without any clear andtech companies. and image –at home and abroad. successionplan.MBS had several older half-brothers, including an astronaut or anotherholding a Ph.D. from Oxford,but by the time his father ascended the throne, 29-year-old MBSwas alreadythefavorite. While the others were educated abroad and lived muchof their lives outside the kingdom, MBS had stayed close to home and developed a close relationship with his father, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. Opening up the conversation, Hubbardframedthe US-Saudi Arabia relationship in the past few years throughthe rise of President Trump and the Crown Prince bin Salman(MBS). Critical moments in the relationship between the two leaders include President Trump’s first foreignvisit in May 2017 to the Kingdom, Saudi Arabia’s $350billioncommitmentsin defense equipment, and President Trump’s continued support of the Crown Prince’s positionin the faceof the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.Notably, PHAROS 2020  |  16

POLICY IN THE AGE OF TRUMP OOn September 2019, the Fares Center by American dominance to Trump’s Trump administration’s strategy is, at and Tufts’ School of Arts and Sciences tendency to employ Bush-era war best, contradictory in its approach. At hosted Dr. Vali Nasr for an evening hawks. worst, it has strengthened the resolve of lecture. Currently, Dr. Nasr is the Majid the radical right in Iran; most notably Khadduri Professor of Middle East Still, Dr. Nasr reiterated that the following the U.S. withdrawal from the Studies and International Affairs at Middle East is no longer under the sole Nuclear Deal. Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced control of the United States. The International Studies (SAIS). Chaired by disconnect between the commander-in- While it remains to be seen if Trump will Professor Leila Fawaz, Issam M. Fares chief and his generals proves the be granted another four years to weaken Professor of Lebanese & Eastern administration’s lack of viable strategy America’s already-fragile standing in the Mediterranean Studies, Dr. Nasr in the region, while Russia’s growing region, Dr. Nasr’s lecture provided the discussed U.S. Foreign Policy towards influence threatens U.S. hegemony in audience a chance to reflect upon what the Middle East and South Asia in the Syria and Afghanistan. Dr. Nasr also the administration has failed to age of Trump. argued that in the face of such threat, accomplish thus far. The Fletcher School the Department of Defense shifted back was pleased to welcome back Dr. Nasr, Dr. Nasr connected U.S. Foreign Policy to a ‘Great Power’ competition and and the lecture provided an insider’s goals and actions under the Obama simultaneously pivoted away from view into the decision-making administration to those of his successor, engagement in the Middle East. tendencies of America’s most elite specifically noting the shift from ending branch of government. the ‘War on Terror’ to a new battle of In keeping with the theme of demonizing immigrants. As Dr. Nasr disengagement, Dr. Nasr further shared with the Fletcher audience, the detailed Trump’s choice to destroy what policies of the successive he termed the “peace process industry”, administrations stood in stark contrast beginning with his decision to dispense to one another; particularly in regards with the Israeli peace plan. Nasr took to President Obama’s desire to this blunder to emphasize that the  withdraw from a region overwhelmed PHAROS 2020  |  17

DECEMBER 2016 PROFILE ENVIRONMENTAL IN(SECURITY) IN THE MIDDLE EAST IIn October of 2019, The Fares Center joined both Madani argued that as governments attempt to Fletcher’s Middle East Club and Center for make water more readily accessible via increases in International Environment and Resource Policy to the public water supply, they also tend to host environmental scientist Kaveh Madani. Having overextend to rapid development. previously served as the Deputy Vice President of Iran in his position as the Deputy Head of Iran’s Madani further warned of the nuances of Department of Environment and as Vice President climatology; particularly in regards to authoritarian of the UN Environment Assembly Bureau, Mr. governments. As the Madani holds a unique position at the interface of threat of climate change increases in severity with public policy, science, and society. Mr. Madani’s each passing year, so too does the desire for change. timely discussion was introduced by Dean Rachel Thus, Madani argues that profound need for Kyte. sustainable development will likely be undermined by the deep-rooted corruption plaguing numerous Chaired by Fletcher student Kiana Kazemi (F’20), governments of the region. Madani opened the talk by referencing what he considers to be the main symptom of Madani concluded his discussion by suggesting that underdeveloped infrastructure in the Middle East: climate change is not the largest issue harming the poor governance and lack of capacity. Particularly environment. As Madani reiterated to the Fletcher over recent years, the Middle East has suffered from audience, poor governance, underdeveloped a demand for water far greater than the available infrastructure, and politics are the most degrading resources. factors of the environment. PHAROS 2020  |  18

A TIME FOR REFORM TThe government of Hassan Diab resigned Hezbollah directly nominated the Comprising militant groups that amid unanswered questions regarding the Minister of Health Hamad Hassan and operationalize terrorist training, the FTO Beirut port explosion in August 2020. the Minister of Industry Imad Hoballah, list intends to degrade a group’s ability Answers await about the lack of action to while other ministers stood aligned with to function and to threaten U.S. national remove ammonium nitrate, the owners of the group. security interests. Beyond stigmatizing the ammonium nitrate, and the remaining FTOs on the global stage, the designation chemicals at the port. In response to the In 1997, the State Department added impacts travel for members, makes it a explosion, the U.S. government is Hezbollah to its list of designated crime to provide material support, and delivering $17 million in disaster aid to the foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs). freezes the financial accounts in U.S. Lebanese Red Cross and the FBI is joining financial institutions. an international investigation. As the situation develops, U.S. government officials must re-evaluate their approach to achieving government reforms. The past twelve months have brought to the fore the consequences of the sectarian character of Lebanese politics. Namely, the popular protests across Lebanon in the fall of 2019, the default of a $1.2 billion Eurobond, the port explosion, and the subsequent ruling from the U.N.-backed tribunal on the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. The political divisions along confessional lines allows elites to turn political access within government institutions into economic privileges. Exacerbated by the political architecture, Hezbollah, an Iranian-funded and directed Shia militant group, has been able to achieve significant social and political capital in Lebanon. Formed during the Lebanese Civil War in response to Israel’s 1982 occupation of Lebanon, Hezbollah gained popular support through providing health, security, and social services to Shia-majority areas of Lebanon. Politically, Hezbollah first established a foothold in Lebanon's Parliament in 1992, and gained cabinet positions in 2005. Since then, Hezbollah has increased its political presence to the point that, in response to anti-sectarian protests in late 2019, President Michel Aoun named Hassan Diab—an un-elected, former professor at the American University of Beirut—to form a government in December 2019. Prime Minister Diab subsequently appointed a cabinet of ministers filled with Hezbollah’s preferred candidates, giving Hezbollah unprecedented political power PHAROS 2020  |  19

Paths forward In recent years, the European Union has In terms of the U.S. sanctions regime on If the U.S. government wishes to maintain a not demonstrated the same appetite as Iran, strong traditional partners of the posture to degrade Hezbollah, then the U.S. the United States to counter Hezbollah U.S. (France, Germany, South Korea, government should reconsider its through terrorism designations. The Switzerland, and the U.K.) have been approach to the group. With the following E.U. distinguished between the political developing their own channels to actions in place, the U.S. government and military wing of Hezbollah in a 2013 facilitate trade with Iran despite the U.S. would be in a stronger position to work on listing on the E.U. terror list. Despite sanctions regime. Thus, the U.S. will an international basis for government recent calls from members of Congress, likely not be able to depend on a reforms in Lebanon. Via the State and the E.U. has not designated the political coalition of states to enact a unified Treasury Departments, below are a few wing of Hezbollah as terrorists. sanctions regime. options:   1) Sanction Lebanon’s Officials through the Global Magnitsky Act. The Global agnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act authorizes the president to block or revoke the visas of foreign persons or to impose property sanctions. Sanctions may result from extrajudicial killings, torture, or other gross violations of internationally recognized human rights, or government officials complicit in corruption.   2) Designate the Free Patriotic Movement as an SDGT. While several political parties in Lebanon may legally qualify for an SDGT designation, President Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement, a long-time collaborator with Hezbollah, would be a significant place to start. The International Emergency Economic Powers Act authorizes the Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) list. Primarily a sanctions-related designation, the SDGT is an effective tool to incentivize corporate compliance through civil penalties. Executive Order 13224 expanded the criteria for SGDT designation to disrupt the financial support network for terrorists and terrorist organizations. 3) Reduce funding to the Lebanese Armed Forces. The LAF holds primary responsibility for securing Lebanon’s land and maritime borders. The port explosion further calls into question the effectiveness of the LAF funding. Since 2010, the State Department has provided more than $1.8 billion in security assistance to the LAF, partly in an effort to decrease Hezbollah’s power in the country. Simultaneously, since 2011, the Ministers of National Defense have been either members of Hezbollah or directly appointed by Hezbollah political allies. Furthermore, the LAF has operated directly alongside Hezbollah in military operations on numerous occasions. © picture alliance/Thibault Camus/AP/dpa PHAROS 2020  |  20

NAONT“REWhTWeiHthGERdeRroEaNpAwoLaSlilIt”YTicYRs IoIAANf :TNrumGp’Es SDyriaIntroHforces initiated a combined groundIn addition to Turkey, other regional and HIn recent months, the geopolitics of the and air campaign against targets such as global powers are quickly taking Kobani, Ras al Ain, and Akcakale, killing advantage of the U.S. forces drawdown to Syrian Civil War have shifted yet again. Inhundreds of Kurdish fighters and increase their presence in Syria. mid-October, the Trump administrationcivilians. On October 11, Turkish Despite not having a formal alliance, forces reportedly fired on  U.S. forces Russia and Iran have had an active Cannounced that U.S. forces would embedded with Kurdish fighters in the military presence in the country since vicinity of Kobani. September 2015 and early 2011, withdraw from Syria, a tactical move that respectively. Russia, whose principal opened the door for Turkey to launch aAlthough the incident was clarified to be tactical approach has been the use of military offensive into Northern Syria asa mistake, U.S.-Turkish relations, airstrikes reportedly targeting anti- already strained from Turkey’s purchase Assad insurgent and terrorist groups, is I Epart of a security operation to protect itsof S-400 missiles from Russia, U.S. has stepped up patrols and offered to homeland from alleged Kurdish terroristtariffs on Turkish imports, and the play the role of mediator between parties groups such as the Syrian Democratic detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson, to the conflict. Forces (SDF). The Trump administration’shave worsened since the offensive Bdecision to withdraw has sparked against the Syrian Kurds began. U.S. Moscow is also capitalizing on its significant backlash in the U.S. and around the world, resulting in increased destabilization within Syria and new geopolitical maneuverings from the larger Opowers participating in the conflict. TGeopolitical Shifts The U.S. withdrawal paved the way for the Vice President Mike Pence purportedly presence in Syria to engage in resource Erdogan regime to launch a military negotiated a now-defunct ceasefire with extraction, as oligarch Gennady offensive against Kurdish fighters in Erdogan on October 17, and the Turkish Timchenko, a close friend of Putin, Northern Syria. On October 10, Turkish president paid a visit to Washington, signed a deal back in March 2018 for his D.C. on November 13. company, Stroytransgaz Logistic, to operate the phosphate mine near PHAROS 2020  |  21

Palmyra. Russia, to which the Assad regime gave exclusive oil and gas extraction rights in 2018, has come into conflict with U.S. troops over Syrian oil fields. In short, Russia’s quest for greater military, economic, and political power in Syria will only grow larger as the U.S. military presence decreases. Iran’s presence in Syria also continues to grow. Tehran has been a BE CHANGEDTheoverallgeopoliticalshiftsinSyria strategic ally of Damascus remain to be fully seen, as the U.S. has for years. The two reiterated its presence in the Middle East countries continue to find in light of rising tensions with Iran, common ground over sending thousands more troops to Iraq, opposition to Israel and On the Ground regional powers under Sunni leadership. Iran As Turkey moved into northern Syria as has employed a diverse part of its “Operation Peace Spring,” the tactical toolbox in Kurdish-led administration was forced Syria, sending 10,000+ of its own operatives into Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere. to seek out a deal with the Assad regime. the country; supporting 130,000+ fighters in Joint Syrian-Russian operations to seize On Oct. 15, a deal to allow Syrian troops Syria, including an estimated 20,000- oil fields throughout the country have to reenter areas previously held by the 30,000 foreign Shia fighters; and supply arms led to the re-deployment of limited U.S. Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic and training to Hezbollah to carry out its activities forces into Syria to protect these Forces (SDF) was announced. Under the targeting Syria, Lebanon, Israel, and beyond. strategic resources. Moscow remains deal, areas such as Kobane, Manbij, Tehran has committed to bolstering the Assad and Ain Issa were now to be occupied by also spent upwards of $15 billion supporting the regime and maintaining sufficient regime forces, which would allow Assad regime, and in 2017 alone, it lost an estimated military forces in Syria. Even in the wake Kurdish troops to pull back to safer 2,100 troops in the conflict. Iranian power in of the U.S. airstrike that killed Qasem areas. Syria will likely grow even further with a decreased U.S. presence in the country, allowing Tehran to use hybrid warfare tactics with greater effectiveness to support OAssad-aligned groups or nonstate groups such as THezbollah advancing Iranian interests throughout the region. Soleimani on January 3, Iran has © picture alliaofnufncpdreao/mxTyehwnitbaarlaflyaurrelettinaCinSayemrdiauit,sscuo/AnsutPian/ludsitnprgaatteogy This deal did not come out of left-field, however. In 2018, a similar deal was carry out attacks on a variety of groups including some backed by the U.S. And Turkey’s role has grown ever- PHAROS 2020  |  22 more complex in the recent months and will likely continue to evolve along with

made to prevent Turkish forces from For instance, on Oct. 30, the Syrian regime Though uniformed Turkish troops have entering the town of Afrin in proposed a new deal with the Kurdish also engaged the Assad regime and its northwestern Syria. forces. According to the Syrian Arab News allies. Indeed, on Oct. 30, Syrian and Agency, the regime’s official mouthpiece, Turkish troops clashed near the town of A few days after the Syrian-Kurdish the Syrian government asked the Kurdish Ras al Ayn near the Syrian-Turkish agreement in northern Syria, military forces to join the Syrian army, as border. While on Nov. 9, another round Russia announced its own well as the Kurdish Asayish police to join of clashes between Turkish and Syrian aforementioned agreement with Turkey. the Syrian military police. While some government troops occurred near Ras al This deal, implemented on Oct. 29, observers have postulated that a joint Ayn. Further clashes risk reigniting the ordered Kurdish forces to pull back to Syrian-Kurdish government could be flames of war in northern Syria, thereby areas deeper in eastern Syria to provide formed in northeastern Syria, this exacerbating the civil war even further. Turkey its intended buffer zone. statement does not bode well for that scenario. As the regime and its allies move further In return, Russia, Turkey, and the Assad The various deals brokered late last year in into Idlib, where Turkey maintains northern Syria were believed to act as a several outposts, it has lost more soldiers regime would patrol the buffer zone to make sure the agreement is being win-win situation for the Assad regime. to regime airstrikes. For instance, on upheld by all parties. While the SDF has Not only do they get to reclaim some areas Feb. 3, at least 8 Turkish troops were ostensibly lost much of the territory it lost years ago during the course of the civil after Assad’s soldiers shelled their gained during the fight against the war, thereby hampering any chances of a positions. Five more Turkish troops were Islamic State, the deal technically still unified Kurdish state in northern Syria; but killed by the regime a week later. the deals also allow them to focus their Turkish airstrikes were reportedly Dallows them to retain much of this attention more on Idlib province, the last launched in retaliation. rebel-controlled area in the country. Or so ground. That said, moves by the Assad the regime thought. On Feb. 20, two other Turkish troops were killed after further regime or Eregime show a much more dangerous, Since moving back into various areas of Russian airstrikes. It is possible that NGlong-term scenario. northern Syria, regime troops have these soldiers died as the result of engaged in various battles with Turkish- Russian airstrikes, as video emerged backed rebel groups (aptly referred to as showing alleged Turkish special forces the Turkish-Free Syrian Army, or TFSA). firing an anti-air missile at a Russian jet. TFSA units have attacked regime troops in Russian airstrikes against Turkish both Hasakeh and Raqqa governorates. troops have also been reported. As the regime continues to move into On Feb. 20, two other Turkish troops Anorthern Syria, these clashes have were killed after further regime or Russian airstrikes. It is possible that continued. This is especially true as these these soldiers died as the result of Turkish-backed forces continue to conduct Russian airstrikes, as video emerged attacks in areas where Syrian troops have showing alleged Turkish special forces firing an anti-air missile at a Russian jet. Hdeployed. For instance, in late October, Russian airstrikes against Turkish troops have also been reported. the sides clashed near Tel Tamer. CThese units have also fought with the SDF, Conclusion as in November, heavy rounds of fighting As of this month, there are around 500 were reported near Ain Issa. Later that U.S. troops in Syria, and their primary mission is to protect oil fields. Despite Emonth, the TFSA units again tried to attack this continued, albeit small troop presence, the initial decision for troop near Ain Issa, prompting another round of withdrawal in October has allowed clashes with the SDF. Turkey to invade northern Syria against the US-backed Syrian Democratic BIn Idlib, many of the TFSA units have redeployed to various areas in the Forces, Syria to regain several lost province to help fend of the current regime advance. Shifting their attention from the SDF, these forces have provided force O multipliers for other rebels, the jihadist conglomerate Hay’at Tahrir al Sham, and T other jihadist groups in the province. Armed with new Turkish weaponry, the Turkish-backed fighters have even locales, and Russia to step in and play an recently downed a regime helicopter with even greater role in the country. The anti-air missiles. changing geopolitical landscape in Syria © picture alliance/Thibault Camus/AP/dpa will continue to have serious geopolitical implications not only for the region, but US interests as a whole. PHAROS 2020  |  23

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