Yojana June 2014 KURUKSHETRA

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sectoral analysis deep probeAgricultural Growth in India: Performance andProspects P K Joshi Anjani Kumar Effective system need A gricultural and a number of important policy to be evolved right from development has measures have been initiated to basic strategic research been a primary goal address the issues of agrarian distress. of India’s efforts to These initiatives were taken forward to location-specific ensure food security and further strengthened in the Twelfthtechnology development and reduce poverty. In Five Year Plan. The performance of pursuing this objective, the planning agriculture has shown a promising to ensure adoption of process in the country has initiated trend in the recent decade and the technologies at the several pro-poor policies and reform view of deceleration in agricultural measures in agriculture sector to growth has been put aside. This paper farm level. Technology accelerate agricultural growth. Public deliberates on the performance ofgeneration and extension measures directed at agricultural Indian agriculture and the associated development have been focused on factors responsible for agricultural must be in viewed in creating infrastructure, spreading growth.continuum. Further, the adoption of modern inputs, increasing credit, enhancing irrigation facilities Contribution of Agriculture to spread of agricultural etc. These initiatives have a direct Income and Employment in Indiagrowth to less developed bearing on agricultural development. In recent years, the emphasis on having Indian agriculture has transformed regions would lead to a more desirable composition of GDP significantly during the last six increase in the overall growth by targeting an average 4 per decades. These are reflected in the agricultural growth as cent per annum growth in agriculture changing share of agriculture inwell as reduction in rural sector has found favour with the national economy and employment. poverty in the country policy makers. The agricultural sector Agriculture contributed more than has been in the centre of public policy 51 per cent of total output of India’s discourse particularly after the global economy in early 1950s. Its share food crisis witnessed in 2008. Earlier has steadily declined to about 16 too, the policy debates dominated the per cent in TE 2011-12 (Figure 1). concerns of significant deceleration Obviously, the growth of industrial of agricultural growth during 1990s and services sectors have far outpaced and the acute livelihood hardships the growth of agricultural sector. of the farming communities and Transformation of Indian economy agricultural workers. Consequently, from agriculture to non-agriculture the Eleventh Five Year Plan (2007- sector got a strong push after 1980- 2012) has placed heavy emphasis on 81. These changes are not contrary agriculture and rural development to the processes of economic growth and development experienced in otherDr. P.K. Joshi is the Director for South Asia, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) . Previous to this, heheld the positions of the Director of the National Academy of Agricultural Research Management, Hyderabad, India, and the Directorof the National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, New Delhi. Anjani Kumar is Research Fellow, InternationalFood Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).50 YOJANA June 2014

developed countries. However, the Figure 1: Share of Agriculture in GDP and Employment in India (%)slow absorption of workforce in the 80non-agricultural sector raises concernswhen seen along with the changing 70structure of the national gross domesticproduct. The asymmetry in income 60and employment shares of agriculturaland non-agricultural sectors created a (Per cent)50widening gap between the incomesof agricultural and non-agricultural 40workers. This has become a majorsource for growing rural-urban 30divide and inter-sectoral disparities.However, the share of agriculture in 20employment, which almost stagnatedaround 70 per cent for first three 10decades, declined by 22 per cent in thenext three decades. The opportunities 0in non-agricultural sectors havestarted growing relatively at a faster TE 1952 TE 1961 TE 1971 TE 1981 TE 1991 TE 2001 TE 2011rate in the recent years, leading todecline in the share of agriculture GDP Employmentin employment by more than 10 percent in the most recent decade. The Source: Base data are from National Accounts Statistics, GOI; NSSO Reports onlatest estimates reveal that about Employment and Unemployment in India (Various rounds)49 per cent of the total labour forcewas engaged in agricultural sector in growth rate of the Indian economy played an important role in achieving2011-12. This offers a ray of hope for continue to persist (Figure 2). higher growth of the sector during thisdeclining dependence of workforce on period. The importance and priorityagriculture if a similar trend continues Performance of sub-sectors in given to agriculture was diluted in thein future. Agriculture Second and Third Five-Year Plans, and there were occurrence of severeGrowth of Agriculture Sector Crop sector droughts too in the mid-sixties. As a consequence, the sub-sector witnessed Agricultural growth is necessary The growth of crop sub-sector in a deceleration during sixties (1.7 pernot only for attaining high overall the first decade of India’s planning cent). This led to severe shortagegrowth but also for accelerating phase (1950s) was quite modest (3.1 of foodgrains, and the country wasthe speed of poverty reduction in a per cent). The First Five-Year Plan compelled to import huge quantitiesdeveloping country like India. The accorded highest priority to agriculture of foodgrains. The food aid fromannual compound growth rates of and allocated substantial part of the the USA came with conditionality,agricultural sector have been quite plan outlay to this sub-sector. This which forced the country to putdismal ranging from 2 to 3 per cent period witnessed remarkable progress greater efforts to increase foodgrainduring all decades after independence, in land reforms, institutional changes, production. In mid-sixties, a newwith exception during the sixties. It and operationalization of some major agricultural development strategywas 2.6 per cent per annum during irrigation projects. These initiativesfifties but decelerated to 1.7 percent per annum during sixties. Later Figure 2: Annual Growth rate in GDP Agriculture and Non-it accelerated, touching 3.2 per Agriculture, 1950-51 to 2011-12 (%)cent per annum, in the nineties andduring 2000-12. It reached to 3.5 (Per cent)10.0per cent against the target of 4 per 9.0cent per annum. The growth of 8.0agricultural sector remained higher 7.0than the growth rate of population 6.0in the country. However, the non- 5.0agricultural sector has grown faster 4.0than the agriculture and the divergence 3.0between agricultural growth rate and 2.0 1.0 0.0 1950-51 to 1960-61 to 1970-71 to 1980-81 to 1990-91 to 2000-01 to 1959-60 1969-70 1979-80 1989-90 1999-00 2011-12 GDP total GDP Agriculture GDP Non-Agriculture Source: Base data are from National Accounts Statistics, GOI.YOJANA June 2014 51

was adopted which emphasized on when the policy emphasis was largely backward population. With thespreading the adoption of dwarf and focused on the crop sub-sector. The changing consumption patterns,high-yielding varieties (HYVs) of acceleration continued in the eighties emerging market forces andwheat and rice. The new strategy (4.9 per cent) but it slackened in the technological developments, it haspaid dividends and resulted in well- nineties and after 2000s. Even then, assumed added importance. On theacclaimed ‘green revolution’. The this sub-sector was able to maintain whole, the growth of the fisheries sub-crop sub-sector, which was growing a respectable growth rate close to 4 sector in India has been remarkable;at an annual rate of 1.8 per cent in the per cent per annum. The impressive growth rate of more than 5 per cent perseventies, grew at the rate of 2.2 per performance of the livestock sector annum in the eighties and nineties andcent in eighties and 3.0 per cent in the is attributed to effective government is attributed to the rapid developmentnineties. Though the same growth in interventions, success of the Anand of aquaculture. This sub-sector is stillthe crops was maintained, it fell short Pattern Cooperatives, and rising registering an annual growth rate ofof the targeted growth rate of 4 per demands for livestock products more than 4 per cent per annum.cent in the eleventh five year plans in response to rising incomes in(Table 1). urban and rural areas and growing Changing Contribution of Different urbanization. The liberalization of Commodities to Agricultural The policy support, adoption of livestock markets, entry for private Growth in Indiaimproved production technologies and sector in marketing and processingpublic investment in infrastructure, of livestock products, improvement Crops are the major componentsresearch and extension contributed in veterinary services, trade friendly of agricultural economy and theto growth in the crops sub-sector. policies (esp. buffalo meat), emphasis performance of agricultural sectorHowever, investment on agriculture on improvement in quality and has been traditionally dependent ondeclined throughout the nineties, hygiene of the livestock produces etc. the performance of crops sub-sector.leading to a slowdown in the gave further fillip to this sub-sector. However, the contribution of crop sub-agricultural growth especially in the Future increases in per capita income sector has been declining overtime inlate nineties. This led to deceleration and changing consumption patterns the agricultural growth from about 79in growth of total factor productivity in would lead to still higher demand for per cent during 1970s to 60 per centthe north western region, especially in livestock products which would give during the 2000s. The contribution ofrice and wheat growing areas (Kumar further boost to this sector. livestock grew almost three times andet al., 2004). In fact, investment on it accounted for more than one-thirdagricultural research, education and Fisheries of the agricultural growth. Withinroad development paid the highest crops, the share of cereals has gonereturns to agricultural GDP and Fish sector has been recognized down from 43 per cent in the greenreduction in rural poverty (Fan, Gulati as a promising source of augmenting revolution period to merely 13 perand Thorat, 2007). Recognizing the income, generating employment cent in the recent decades. The mainimportance of investment and the and improving nutrition. It is also source of growth in the crops sectorcontinuous threat to the production an important source of livelihood is the horticultural crops. It accountedand lowered factor productivity of for a large section of economically for 47 per cent of the growth in therice and wheat prompted governmentto take corrective measures to reverse Table 1: Annual Growth Rate in Output of Various Sub-sectors ofsuch trends and conscious efforts Agriculture at 1999-00 Prices, 1950-51 to 2011-12have been made to raise investmentin agriculture. Period Crop Livestock Fisheries Horticulture Non- CerealsLivestock sector sector crops Horticulture The growth of livestock sub-sector cropswas modest till 1970. It was 1.4 percent per annum in the fifties and as 1950-51 to 3.06 1.42 5.79 0.74 3.52 3.95low as 0.4 per cent per annum in the 1959-60sixties. An upsurge in growth ratein livestock sector was registered in 1960-61 to 1.70 0.41 4.00 4.87 1.09 2.10the seventies when it rose to 3.9 per 1969-70cent per annum. Livestock sub-sectorgrowth was always higher than crop 1970-71 to 1.79 3.92 2.90 2.86 1.49 2.40sub-sector since 1970. This was 1979-80even during the heydays of greenrevolution (seventies and eighties); 1980-81 to 2.24 4.91 5.67 2.63 2.12 2.89 1989-90 1990-91 to 3.02 3.79 5.36 5.95 2.07 2.24 1999-00 2000-01 to 3.12 4.45 4.06 4.11 2.76 2.12 2011-12 Source: Base data are from National Accounts Statistics, GOI;52 YOJANA June 2014

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value of output from crops sector. Table 2: Contribution of States in the Growth of AgGDP of IndiaAmong cereals, maize and cotton are State Agriculture and allied activitiesthe exceptions and their contributionsto the agricultural growth have 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09been increasing. Diversification Andhra Pradesh 6.4 7.3 10.7towards high value commodities has Assam 2.3 0.7 1.5been observed to be a sustainable Bihar 8.8 0.1 4.7source of growth, which provides Gujarat -1.9 9.0 19.2an opportunity to smallholders to Haryana 5.1 2.6 3.2 Himachal Pradesh 0.3 0.1 1.3enhance their income and enable Jammu & Kashmirthem to escape poverty (Birthal et Karnataka 0.0 0.0 1.1 6.0 9.4 -0.2al.2014) Kerala 1.8 2.7 3.1 Among livestock products, milk Madhya Pradesh 4.8 8.0 11.7 Maharashtra 9.4 13.8 10.5and milk products are the major Orissaitems. However, this sub-sector seems Punjab 4.2 1.8 3.1 10.1 5.2 3.8to be diversified overtime and the Rajasthan 6.3 7.0 9.6contribution of meat, poultry and eggs Tamil Nadu 6.5 5.8 1.6has been increasing in the growth of Uttar Pradesh 13.8 13.2 6.5this sector. Their contribution in the West Bengal 14.4 13.6 6.3growth of this sub-sector increased Other State 1.7 -0.3 2.3from about 3 per cent during 1950s Source: Base data are from National Accounts Statistics, GOIto about 30 per cent during 2000- variations in the growth rate of NSDP as the biggest contributor to national11s. Similarly, in fisheries the inland agriculture. The growth witnessed agricultural growth with 13.8 perfisheries, have emerged as the source by different states varies widely. cent contribution, closely followedof fisheries growth. Its contribution The sharp variations of agricultural by Uttar Pradesh (13.6 per cent) andto fisheries growth was about 31 growth across states seem to have West Bengal (13.2 per cent). Twoper cent during 1960s and 1970s, altered the regional growth sources states, low in agricultural productivityand now accounting for 83 per cent of Indian agriculture. During eighties per ha, Gujarat and Rajasthan,of the fisheries growth during West Bengal (14.4 per cent), Uttar emerged as the major contributors2000-11 (Figure 3). Pradesh (13.8 per cent), Punjab to agricultural growth during 1990sRegional Trends: Emergence (10.1 per cent), Maharashtra (9.4 and each contributed 9 and 7 perof New Sources of Agricultural per cent), Bihar (8.8 per cent), Tamil cent, respectively. Madhya PradeshGrowth in India Nadu (6.5 per cent) and Andhra is another state whose contribution to Pradesh (6.4 per cent) were the main growth in Indian agriculture increased With these national trends, there contributors to agricultural growth considerably from 4.8 per cent duringare wide inter-state variations. The in India. They together accounted 1980s to 8 per cent during 1990s. Theranking of various states based on for about 70 per cent of growth in contribution from Andhra Pradeshthe productivity witnessed significant Indian agriculture during 1980s. also increased slightly from 6.4 perchanges during this period because of During 1990s, Maharashtra emerged cent during 1980s to 7.3 per cent during 1990s. The contribution of FigFurigeu3r:eC3o: nCtornibturitbiountioonf dofifdfeifrfeenrtenstusbu-bse-scetcotrosrisninagagrirciucultluturraal lggrroowwthth(%(%)) Bihar in growth of Indian agriculture 90 during 1990s was nil. The subsequent 80 decade witnessed Gujarat emerged 70 as the biggest source of national 60 agricultural growth. It contributed(Per cent) 50 about 20 per cent of the national 40 average growth of agriculture. The contribution from Madhya Pradesh 30 further accelerated and reached to 20 11.7 per cent. Bihar also emerged as 10 one of the major contributor to the 0 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-11 national agricultural growth and it contributed about 5 per cent to the 1950-59-10 Crop sector Livestock Forest Fish agricultural growth in India during 2000s. However, the contributionSource: Base data are from National Accounts Statistics, GOI from Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal54 YOJANA June 2014

declined substantially during this significant role in the agricultural Similarly, there has been significantperiod (Table 2). growth of the country. The use of increase in road density in rural modern inputs increased significantly. India and considerable enhancement Regional convergence of During the green revolution of 1970s, in the flow of agricultural credit.agriculture is another dimension, the cropped area planted with HYVswhich need serious attention of the cereals increased from less than Prospects for Acceleration ofpolicy makers. This is driven partly 17 per cent in 1970 to 40 per cent Agricultural Growthby the diversity in the production in 1980. The area under HYVspotential and extensive cultivation continued to increase and reached The continuing primacy ofin marginal areas, and partly by 70 per cent of the cropped area by agriculture as the primary sourcepolicy priority promoting food 2009-10. Similarly, the cropped area of employment in the Indian ruralproduction regardless of technical under irrigation, increased from economy calls for accelerationor economic efficiency (Jha, 2004). 23 per cent in 1970 to 34 per cent of agricultural growth. However,Several studies have shown that there in 1990 and 45 per cent in 2011- the increasing marginalization ofare large disparities in agricultural 12. But the increase has been only land holdings in most of the Indianperformance across regions and the marginal in recent years. The fertilizer states, accompanied with increasingprimary sector has been attributed consumption (NPK) per ha was fragmentation compounds theto be the major source of regional merely 26 kg in 1970, increased to 58 challenges of increasing productivitydisparities of inter-state income in kg by 1980-81, to 96 kg in 1991. The and accelerating agriculturalIndia. Moreover, the deceleration in fertilizer consumption in 2011-12 was growth. Ensuring sustainability andagricultural growth in the late 1990s about 195 kg/ha (Table 3). It is well economic viability of smallholdersrenewed the debate of convergence in documented that HYVs, irrigation and improving their competitivenessagricultural performance across states and fertilizer application have been in production and marketing byin India. The indicators of regional major engines of productivity growth facilitating better access to improveddisparities exhibit a fluctuating trend. in Indian agriculture. technology, inputs, credit and marketsHigh level of regional disparities in is crucial for higher and inclusiveagricultural output and productivity The rapid electrification has been agricultural growth. If appropriateduring the 1980s which tapered one of the greatest achievements in institutional alternatives are provided,off to some extent during 1990s the rural India. In 1970, only 34 per smallholders are as competitive asagain started rising during the recent cent of the villages in rural India large farms. Options for easy leasingdecade of 2000s. The persistence of were electrified. But in 1995 this out of land must be encouraged. Thisregional variations poses a challenge percentage increased to 86 per cent, would induce several farm familiesfor attaining balanced regional which rose to 95 per cent in 2014. The to go out of agriculture and makeagricultural development. increase in electrification not only fortunes in other sectors. This would contributes to agricultural growth, also create an opportunity for othersFactors for Agricultural Growth by encouraging more irrigation, to raise the size of their holdings by it also contributes to reduction in leasing-in land. The wide spread adoption of rural poverty through generationhigh-yielding varieties, expansion of non-agricultural employment Shifting a large chunk of workforceof irrigation facilities and increase opportunities (Fan et al., 1999). from agriculture by creatingin fertilizer application along with The literacy rate in rural India has productive work opportunities inimprovement in rural literacy, increased steadily from 23 per cent the non-farm sector is also requiredincrease in agricultural credit and in 1970 to 69 per cent in 2011. to check the disturbing trend ofimproved infrastructure played a increasing disparities between agricultural and non-agriculturalTable 3: Technology and, Infrastructure Use in Indian agriculture, occupations. However, accelerating 1970-71 to -2011-12 agricultural growth is crucial to ensure food security and enhance theYear HYVs ( Irrigation Fertilizer Literacy Electrified welfare of the people dependent on per cent) (per cent) consumption rate village agriculture. Pragmatic and plausible options to accelerate agricultural (kg/ha) (per cent) (per cent) growth need to be harnessed. The level of cropping intensity continues1970-71 16 22 20 23 20 to be very low in spite of significant1980-81 42 28 39 29 45 progress in the irrigation facilities. In Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka,1990-91 52 34 88 36 81 Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, more than one crop is grown on less2000-01 55 39 118 47 862011-12 70* 45 199 69 95+Source: Agricultural Statistics at A Glance (Various years): refers to 2009-10; + inJanuary 2014.YOJANA June 2014 55

than 30 per cent of the area under these states have irrigation potential need to be evolved right from basiccultivation. The low level of cropping to cover 2/3rd of their gross cropped strategic research to location-specificintensity indicates the possibilities area. technology development to ensureof substantial enhancement in adoption of technologies at the farmagricultural output by increasing The level of productivity of most level. Technology generation andarea under double cropping. of the crops is quite low in most extension must be in viewed in of the states. However, available continuum. Further, the spread of The fertilizer use has increased in evidence shows that there is a big agricultural growth to less developedthe country but the inter-state variation gap between the level of yield with regions would lead to increase inin its use is glaring. Fertilizer use in improved farm practices in farmers’ the overall agricultural growth asthe recent years is as low as 40-50 fields and the actual yield realized well as reduction in rural povertykg/ha in Assam, Orissa and Rajasthan by the farmers. Bridging the existing in the country. Policy measures likeand as high as 330 kg/ha of net sown yield gap would enhance agricultural land reforms, enhanced rural credit,area in Punjab. The agricultural output considerably. For achieving and greater public investment areoutput can be substantially enhanced the existing potential, availability important to promote agriculturalby increasing fertilizer application of quality seed is the most critical growth in less developed regions.in lagging states. Similar is the story factor apart from strengthening theof use of electricity in agriculture. technology transfer mechanism. ReferencesConsumption of electricity was just India needs to develop a competitive11 kWh/ha in Assam, whereas it market for seeds by intensifying Birthal, P S, P K Joshi, Digvijayexceeded 1,000 kWh/ha in Andhra the role of public sector and by S Negi and Shaily Agarwal (2014).Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab encouraging private sector in seed Changing sources of growth in Indianand Tamil Nadu. Increase in electric business vigorously. agriculture: Implications for regionalsupply to agriculture is crucial for priorities for accelerating agriculturalpromoting irrigation facilities, which Though input subsidies are critical growth. IFPRI Discussion Paper, 716.in turn can increase agricultural for smallholders in marginal and International Food Policy Researchoutput. deprived areas, there is a need of Institute, Washington DC. reorienting the policies to maximize The coverage of irrigation in the gains to small farmers and Fan, Shenggen, Ashok Gulati andvarious states varies from 5 to 95 per increase efficiencies in its use and Sukhadeo Thorat (2007). Investment,cent. There is a large gap between the conserve natural resources. It is subsidies and pro-poor growth in Ruralcurrent level and the ultimate irrigation necessary to emphasize productivity- India. IFPRI Discussion Paper, 716.potential (except in Punjab, Haryana enhancing interventions and subsidies International Food Policy Researchand Rajasthan). Bihar has abundant should be geared towards promoting Institute, Washington DC.water resources, which can cater to use of technologies that increasethe needs of irrigation requirements productivity and enable movements Jha, Dayanatha (2004). Agriculturaleven for further expansion in gross up the value chain in agriculturalcropped area through an increase in production. Shifting of agricultural R&D in India : Growth, equity andcropping intensity. Similarly, Uttar processing into rural areas shouldPradesh has the potential to raise the be paid serious attention. A strong institutional challenges, in Ramesh Chandlevel of irrigation to 95 per cent. Only integration and effective coordination5 per cent of GCA in Assam and 32 is required in Research, Education (ed.) India’s Agricultural Challenges :per cent in Orissa are irrigated though and Extension. Effective system Reflections on Technology, Policy and Other Issues, Centre for Trade and Development, New Delhi, P. 171-196. q (E-mail:[email protected] [email protected])Yojana July 2014 &Forthcoming Issues August 2014 July Democracy and Electoral Reform August Urban Planning56 YOJANA June 2014

General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) CGS J¼koku yHkrs Kkue~General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS)An endeavour for excellence. The Legion of Leading Faculties. YE-39/2014Batch Starts – 15th June, 2:30 – 5:30 pm Alok Ranjan Hemant Jha (Paper I & III) C.B.P. Srivastava Shubhra Ranjan (Paper II & IV) History, Geography, Governance & (Paper–II) Art & Culture, Environment & Ethics inCurrent Affairs Ecology, Disaster Administration, Indian PolityScience & Tech. Management. International & Relations, Economic Constitution. Issues (Paper III) Culture & Heritage Indian Economy Indian Society Ethicsby Faculty from Heritage – Praveen Kishor By Faculty by Eminent Faculty from IIPA Management InstituteFEATURES300 days course programme.No mixing of topics (Segregation of subjects & their completion as a section to avoid the cascading effects in your preparation)well-crafted tutorials and qualitative, compact, relevant and updated study material15 Subjective and 15 Objective TestsAnswer depiction & Skill development through specialised classes.WE INTEND WHY USTo provide you an accurate & a rational interpretation Faculties are unparallel withof the entire syllabus. unflinching records.To offload the burdensome garbages of materials. Weekly discussions on Current Affairs.To teach precisely the content & their calculated analysis. Free Magazine Contemporary Issues and AwarenessTo minimise your efforts & optimise your gains.To keep you upbeat & enthused about Civil Services Free News Papers & Magazine Topics Preparation.To enrich your current awareness, we provide a Teaching According to present standard of Examination. weekly magazine. Get Registered before 10th June & Win a concession of 10%.you may send D.D. in favour of \"Centre for General Studies\" payable at DelhiB–14, 2nd Floor, Commercial Complex, Dr. Mukherjee Nagar, Delhi–110009 8588834215-216-217General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS) General Studies (CGS)YOJANA June 2014 57

agricultural policies outlookIndian Agriculture: Emerging Issues and PolicyPerspectives Srijit Mishra T he summer of 2014 that the average returns per worker got drenched with the in agricultural households was less elections euphoria, but than Rs.8. Assuming a 6 per cent for Indian agriculture annual average growth rate, which all eyes are set on the is much on the higher side, the per capita per day returns in 2013-14 prospects of a good would double to Rs.16. This explains the poor returns to cultivation. With monsoon. Is there a possibility nearly half the population being still dependent on agriculture, the non- of an El Nino? Will it lead to a farm opportunities remain limited. drought like condition and have The 2013 Global Hunger Index puts India at a rank of 63 from among an adverse impact on agricultural 78 countries, which is lower than some of the Sub-Saharan countries and all Indian agriculture production? How will this impact the other South Asian countries. The has been going per capita per day availability of those dependent on agriculture for foodgrains, as indicated in the State through a crisis that of Indian Agriculture 2012-13, has is agrarian as also their livelihood? What about farmers' reduced from 510 grams in 1991agricultural. A way out to 463 grams in 2011. This is also suicides? These questions remind reflected in the per capita per day of this is to calorie and protein consumption as explore context- us of the larger agrarian crisis and the national sample survey estimates specific knowledge- of 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10 centric approaches. its interrelated dimensions of an suggest. Such an outcome is also This, to borrow a because of a shift in the cerealterm, has the potential agricultural developmental crisis. production and their consumption for an inclusive, from millets to rice and wheat. sustainable and The former is about declining share There have been recent initiatives to food-secure India increase the millets production and of the overall pie towards agricultural their consumption. sector, poor returns to cultivation, and The manifestation of the agrarian crisis has been identified with farmers' nutritional deprivation while the latter suicides. However, it is symptomatic and its absence does not necessarily is about inadequate and inappropriate planning that led to a deceleration in the growth rate of production and productivity, and an increase in risk and vulnerability. This also calls for alternative policy thinking. Agrarian Crisis The share of agriculture and allied activities in gross domestic product at constant 1999-2000 prices decreased from 41 per cent in 1972-73 to 14.6 per cent in 2009-10 while during the same period the share of employment in the sector declined from 73.9 per cent to 53.2 per cent. This meansThe author is Associate Professor at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai. His research relatesto applied development economics. He was the Subir Chowdhury Fellow 2013-14 at the London School of Economics and PoliticalScience (LSE). He has co-edited the book Agrarian Crisis in India, Oxford University Press (2009) with D. Narasimha Reddy.58 YOJANA June 2014

preclude risks. A comparison of period (2.7 per cent) and there has been current knowledge become redundantsuicide mortality rates (SMRs, suicide an increase in the growth rate in the and there is deskilling.deaths for 100,000 persons) between recent period (3.0 per cent). An analysisfarmers and non-farmers suggests that in terms of value addition points out Adequate, affordable and timelyat the all India level the difference in that the growth rate in the first period availability of credit would bethe rates diverged the most in 2004 was statistically significantly higher essential for any enterprise, but this(18.8 and 13.6) and then there was than the second period for cereals (3.3 has been eluding the Indian farmer. Ina secular decline in the gap till 2008 per cent and 1.0 per cent), pulses (1.5 addition, agricultural credit is about(16.9 and 14.7) to diverge again in per cent and -0.03 per cent), oilseeds doing the same things again and again2009, a drought year, and then started (6.1 per cent and 0.5 per cent), cotton and not linked to horizontal or verticalconverging again from 2010 to 2012. (4.1 per cent and 1.0 per cent), milk expansions. Thus, any shocks areHowever, a closer look at the six (5.0 per cent and 3.7 per cent) and likely to make debt non-serviceablestates with relatively higher incidence meat (5.1 per cent and 2.9 per cent); the and this would make the farmerof farmers' suicides indicate that for growth in the third period was higher ineligible for subsequent loans fromthe recent three years (2010 to 2012) than the second period for all the above formal sources. This would increasethe rates are diverging in Andhra except for milk (3.5 per cent) and it the reliance on informal sources at aPradesh, Maharashtra and Kerala and was statistically significantly higher greater interest burden. for pulses (2.5 per cent), oilseeds (4.8 However, a closer look at the per cent) and cotton (13.7 per cent). Input-intensive cultivation practices six states with relatively higher The trends observed till 2010-11 bring in risks that go beyond weather incidence of farmers' suicides have continued till 2013-14, but for a and market uncertainties. There can setback in 2012-13 because of delayed be inappropriate fertiliser applications indicate that for the recent onset and deficient rainfall. having an adverse impact on soil health three years (2010 to 2012) the resulting in yield fatigue or pesticides rates are diverging in Andhra Conventionally, in monsoon India, having harmful impact on livestock Pradesh, Maharashtra and Kerala the farmer was exposed to either yield and human health or depletion of and converging in Chhattisgarh, or price shocks that were supposed groundwater among others. A way out Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. to move in opposite directions being propagated is an expansion of counterbalancing each other. Today,converging in Chhattisgarh, Karnataka the possibility of yield risk increases Conventionally, in monsoon India,and Madhya Pradesh. The turnaround because of unavailability of power the farmer was exposed to eitherin Chhattisgarh is because it has that in turn affects water availabilitystopped reporting farmers' suicides at a crucial time, or because of yield or price shocks that wereand instead increased reporting of a spurious seeds or due to an increase supposed to move in oppositecategory called self-employed others. incidence of pest attack or because directions counterbalancing eachIn addition, West Bengal did not of weather changes. Further, because other. Today, the possibility ofreport profession-wise suicides data of global integration, price volatility yield risk increases because offor 2012. Thus, the convergence that has increased and price shocks could unavailability of power that inone observed at the all India level is be because of higher subsidies in the turn affects water availabilitymore on account of inappropriate and United States or the European Union. at a crucial time, or because ofincomplete reporting. In any case, one And, with these changes the two risks spurious seeds or due to an increasehas to look up other aspects to identify do not counterbalance each other and incidence of pest attack or becausepossible changes. the farmer can also be exposed to both the shocks in the same season. of weather changes.Agricultural Developmental Crisis Over the years, the farmer is the same, that is, to bring more areas Using triennium ending data divided increasingly relying on the market under the input-intensive approachto three sub-periods, 1981-82 to 1993- for inputs. The link between ground - the look east policy being touted94, 1993-94 to 2004-05 and 2004-05 realities and publicly funded research under a second green revolution or anto 2010-11, an analysis of growth and extension is waning and the farmer evergreen revolution. The argumentrates computed through a double- depends on the input-dealer leading to put forward in favour of this or otherkinked exponential curve suggests that a supplier-induced-demand. What technology-driven approach is thatthe growth of agriculture and allied is more, the private provisioning there is no alternative (TINA).activities in the first period (3.3 per of inputs without any regulation tocent) was statistically significantly address the sale of spurious products Alternative Policy Thinkinghigher when compared with the second or other market irregularities increases farmers' vulnerability. Further, with In practice, multiple alternatives changes in technology, the farmers' exist (MAE) that is context-specific.YOJANA June 2014 59

It differs across locations and evolves an understanding of the system water, soil, seed, livestock, fisheries,over time. It questions the one-size dynamics and evolving effective credit and institutions among others.fits all approach. Such thinking structures of managing them. TINA is They also collaborate with the local-takes advantage of the variability crop-specific and involves application level line departments and otherof the natural resource base and the of inputs/technology to enhance government functionaries, as thatdiversity in the production systems. production. is very essential to scale-up withinAs each crop has a different life the pilot area. The interventionscycle, the diversity spreads out the MAE focuses on the production of that started in Kharif 2012 havevulnerability from each episode a complex system with an important attracted the attention of the Planningof unforeseen climatic events. In emphasis on risk reduction. TINA Commission, the Department ofaddition to an integration of different focuses on a single crop or livestock Science and Technology and the Foodcrops, the system is also integrated with an emphasis on improving and Agriculture Organization. Thiswith livestock production. These productivity. requires greater research engagementcould lead to low external input that will delineate the specificities insustainable agriculture (LEISA). The MAE understanding of efficiency each comprehensive pilot and identifyapplication or propagation of this is from a system perspective. the similarities across comprehensiveapproach is knowledge centric. TINA looks into efficiency in the pilots to facilitate their application technological and economic sense beyond the pilot areas. The comprehensive pilots are that is normalised per unit of input. spread across different agro- To sum up, Indian agriculture has ecological conditions and focuses MAE involves marginal lands been going through a crisis that is on integrating knowledge-centric with the crop-livestock system spread agrarian as also agricultural. A way out interventions on water, soil, over a larger area and in that sense is of this is to explore context-specific seed, livestock, fisheries, credit extensive. TINA is mainly in areas knowledge-centric approaches. This, and institutions among others. with better soils and with access to to borrow a term, has the potential for They also collaborate with the water (preferably through irrigation) an inclusive, sustainable and food- local-level line departments and and input-intensive. secure India. other government functionaries, as that is very essential to scale- MAE is about integration of mixed To promulgate it, one needs up within the pilot area. The and multiple crops with livestock. the support of appropriateinterventions that started in Kharif TINA is about specialisation that knowledge, resources and 2012 have attracted the attention espouses mono-cropping. adequate leveraging with of the Planning Commission, marketing opportunities and the Department of Science and MAE production on private lands information technology. It also Technology and the Food and is dependent on commons. TINA requires constant monitoring and production is in owner-operated Agriculture Organization. lands. evaluation. Comparing knowledge-centric Despite these differences, MAE (This paper draws from some ofMAE to technology-driven TINA, one like TINA, cannot happen on itscan state the following. own. To promulgate it, one needs the the recent works by the author. They support of appropriate knowledge, MAE is bottom-up where different resources and adequate leveraging include: Technology, Development,knowledge providers will not only with marketing opportunities andhave to keep the local specifics information technology. It also and Farmers' Suicides in India: Ain mind, but will have to work in requires constant monitoring andtandem with the users. TINA is evaluation. Misplaced Debate, Visiting Fellowstop-down where the provider of thetechnological-fix, as a solution to One of the recent initiatives in- Seminar, Asia Research Centre,some presumed problem, is considered line with MAE is the interventionshierarchically superior to the user of in comprehensive pilots through the London School of Economics andthat technology. Revitalizing Rainfed Agriculture Network (RRA-N) comprising of Political Science, 20 March 2014; MAE is context-specific, requires a number of civil society groups spread across the country. The Agriculture in India: Performance, comprehensive pilots are spread across different agro-ecological Challenges and Opportunities (with conditions and focuses on integrating knowledge-centric interventions on S Mahendra Dev and Vijaylaxmi Pandey) in Ashima Goyal edited The Oxford Handbook of the Indian Economy in the 21st Century, Oxford University Press (OUP), New Delhi, q 2014; etc.).  (E-mail: [email protected])60 YOJANA June 2014

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Best practicesIlluminating the dark-dense forestsI n the deep-dark forests power cuts face far more challenges solar lights could easily prevent this of the Achanakmar tiger in their day to day life. Electricity hazard. Explains Sant Kumar, “The reserve in Chhattisgarh, shortage also affects healthcare light we provide saves energy. Once scattered over an directly. Because, if there is a power the battery is recharged, it can work expanse of 557.55 square cut during one’s dinner, one is for two days. This light can also be unlikely to enjoy one’s meal. This charged in the cloudy season.” kilometers, wild animals was a major reason why cheap solar lights were provided in the area,” Located amid lush green forests isand humans coexist. As dusk falls, it explains Sant Kumar, a Jan Swasthya the picturesque village of Chiraigoda, Sahyog activist. with wooden houses constructed faris time for the wild to emerge, forcing from one another, this village is For the last three years, Jan home to the Uraon Adiwasis. “I havethe humans to lock themselves in. Swasthya Sahyog has assisted with two solar lights, of which only one making solar lights available in is in good condition. It helps myWhat is common on both sides of the villages in Lormi region of Mungeli children to study after dark and in District and Kota region of Bilaspur the preparation of food. It has alsolocked doors is darkness, for there is made our night trails easier, helping district. Though the cost of one solar us keep a check on our fields. Paddyno electricity in the villages falling light is Rs 500, for health activists it is seeds can be threshed in the light available for Rs 250 and for villagers, of a solar bulb. Often, we hang thein the buffer zones of the reserve, or at a nominal rate of Rs 100. solar light on trees to keep the wild animals at bay,” shares Dhaniramso it used to be. The government’s Electricity Ekka, a local adivasi, with evident Department has its own solar plant satisfaction. Today, residents of Bamhani, a in villages with no power supply.far flung village in the Achanakmar Unfortunately, it often remains He adds, “Earlier, we would neverTiger Reserve, have moved on from switched off during the monsoon receive adequate kerosene from thethe days of sheer darkness, with season as the sun is not visible for ration shop, only a litre a month.lit bulbs, charged mobile phones, many days at a stretch. Ironically, Those were difficult times.”refrigerators and water-motors it is that time of year when peoplebecoming increasingly common. actually need more power. Adiwasis “The service provided byThe credit for this silent revolution are used to sleeping on the ground government solar plants is nottranspiring in the dense jungles without beds or cots (charpais) and satisfactory as they remain inactive forgoes to the Government and non- hence often become victim to snake want of repairs. Jan Swasthya SahyogGovernment Organizations as the or scorpion bites. The presence of purchased the plant from a Mumbaivillages are now lit up and better still, based company that has given oneusing natural light. year’s guarantee and if it gets faulty during the year, the company will Jan Swasthya Sahyog, a non- either replace it or repair it. In future,Government organization with we wish to train a mechanic who canexpertise in the field of healthcare, repair it locally,” shares Sant Ram.is one of the non-Governmentorganizations that have distributed Indeed, as villagers becomesolar lights in the area in the last three comfortable wisth the new eco-years. Besides, the Government’s friendly technology, a brighter futureEnergy Department has also provided lies ahead for them and the planet.power to these villages by installingsolar plants. Most of the villages in Charkha Featuresthis region have street lights as wellas domestic lights through solarenergy. “From preparing food at night toa walk towards the farm, a minimumquantity of light is always required.Villages with no electricity or heavy62 YOJANA June 2014