CRJ 16 2 June 2021

CRISIS RESPONSE CRISIS RESPONSE VOL:16 | ISSUE:2 | JUNE 2021 WWW.CRISIS-RESPONSE.COM JOURNAL Protection Prevention Preparedness Response Resilience Recove r y MYANMAR | ICELAND VOLCANO | CLIMATE, BIODIVERSITY & GOVERNANCE | COVID-19 | LEADERSHIP | PEOPLE | SEARCH & RESCUE | TECHNOLOGY VOL:16 | ISSUE:2 | JUNE 2021 CLIMATE FIXES? Myanmar security | Climate & Planning | People at the heart of resilience | Rising CALLS FOR GLOBAL GOVERNANCE attacks on places of worship | Risk & BCM | Cybersecurity | Reputation | Leadership

June 2021 | vol:16 | issue:2 contents Editor in Chief News ................................................................ 4 Covid-19 Emily Hough Comment India’s second wave of Covid-19 ................32 [email protected] Is home-working really the answer? ...........8 Dr Peter Patel provides an in-depth update Assistant Editor of the worsening situation in India Lyndon Bird investigates whether Claire Sanders working from home is a useful stop- Tourism through a safe corridor .................36 [email protected] gap or the right way forward I Hakan Yilmaz explores Turkey’s options Design & Production Analysis for restarting international travel Chris Pettican The rise of resistance ....................................12 Risk, Resilience & Leadership [email protected] Enhancing capability of in-country Cross-training...............................................38 News and Blog research INGO staff can help them to develop a resistance mindset, says Andrew Brown Robert Fagan describes the advantages of Lina Kolesnikova developing employees’ skills so that they Turning potential disaster into sensation...16 can perform multiple roles, if necessary Subscriptions Dóra Hjálmarsdóttir outlines safety C-suites and crises ...................................... 40 Crisis Response Journal is published precautions to make the volcanic quarterly; it is available by subscription in eruption on Iceland’s Reykjanes peninsula C-suite executives can be a help or a hard copy or digital. safe for residents and visitors hindrance, says Eric McNulty, providing steps [email protected] that can be taken to ensure they are an asset Climate Published by Crisis Management Limited, It’s all a matter of risk ..................................44 Sondes Place Farm, Westcott Road, Dorking What is nature’s worth? ..............................20 RH4 3EB, UK Emily Hough talks to Michele Wucker about © Crisis Management Limited 2021. Claire Sanders speaks to Professor Sir her new book, exploring trust, agency and Articles published may not be reproduced in Partha Dasgupta about his research understanding our own risk relationships any form without prior written permission. on the economics of biodiversity Printed in England by The Manson Group, UK The very real risks of reputation.................46 ISSN 1745-8633 Solar radiation modification .......................22 Massimo Pani shares his research www.crisis-response.com Janos Pasztor outlines the pros and cons on reputational risk to provide follow our CRJ company page on LinkedIn of an approach to help cool the planet practical advice for organisations follow us on twitter @editorialcrj to help bring carbon dioxide emissions under control, saying that now is the time Crisis management is about people ..........50 for discussions around governance Thomas Lahnthaler explains why we Nature-based solutions ..............................26 should focus on people rather than situations when crises strike The ecosystem-based approach is gaining traction says Haseeb Md Security & Cyber Irfanullah, but now is the time for action Shining a spotlight on security culture...... 52 Time to prepare ............................................28 The aviation sector needs to prioritise a Alice C Hill and Madeline Babin urge security culture. Nina Smith elaborates communities to make investments now to improve preparedness against the Nefarious actors building back better ...... 56 growing number of unfamiliar events that climate change is bringing about It is not only legitimate organisations that are building back better, warns Andy Blackwell, malicious actors also have plans Cross-training p38 Malicious actors p56 John Holcroft | Ikon Images Grandeduc | 123rf 2 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

CRISISRESPONSE Cover story: Solar Geoengineering, call for governance commentCover image: Daniel Mitchell The rise of religious hatred ........................ 60 Healthcare workers and Covid-19..............82 On top of the millions of deaths and Andrew Staniforth and David Fortune Erik de Soir relates the experiences of nurses protracted health introduce an EU-funded project aimed at in emergency and intensive care medicine protecting Europe’s places of worship in Belgium to provide insights into the consequences brought What’s our next normality?.........................64 psychosocial effects of a pandemic outbreak about by this pandemic, Lina Kolesnikova focuses on the next normal and how aspects of critical infrastructure Search & Rescue Covid-19 is a particularly are evolving as a consequence cruel crisis in that it isolates Cybersecurity in critical infrastructure .....66 Helping to make SAR effective................... 87 and deprives people of the comfort they Keyaan Williams says engineered and PIX4D explores the merits of using would normally derive from the affirming failsafe operations are key to cybersecurity drones in time-sensitive missions to company of other human beings. As Adversary behaviour in crowded spaces ..70 save precious time and resources Lyndon Bird says on p8: “We are social Mark Chapple reviews how we protect crowded places animals. We need to get together Human-centred thinking Strengthening Iran’s USAR capacity ..........88 to share thoughts, feelings, ideas, Using the right words .................................. 73 Iran already has high quality existing hopes, and sometimes complaints.” Jeannie Barr from the EPS explains the response capabilities, but here our Of course, technology has helped with significance of effective communication and use of vocabulary during emergencies authors describe enhancements made by multiple ways of communicating that Natural first responders .............................. 74 international co-operation and collaboration were unimaginable just a few years ago. When governments work alongside But although many of today’s virtual neighbours, caregivers and young people, the whole community’s resilience is Living at risk in a multi-hazard country ... 90 methods of communication are widely strengthened, says Marcus T Coleman Burcak Basbug reflects on the dynamic viewed as being here to stay, in some Design to the rescue .................................... 76 disasters that arise in her home circumstances human contact is, quite David Wales urges humanitarians and emergency services to country of Turkey, saying that how simply, irreplaceable. Virtual interaction explore design processes they are dealt with can be used to can never fully replicate the complex A decade of design-led exploration .......... 78 immunise society against other risks subtexts and nuanced cues when Jonathan Collie shares his research and the results of a design-led journey Communication meeting another person face-to-face. to discover service gaps in society Words and body language are vital, as The aftermath of disasters ......................... 80 Revolution or evolution? .............................92 described in Jeannie Barr’s exploration Kjell Brataas shares stories of how Fifth generation technology for mobile of communication and vocabulary frontline workers have dealt with grief and trauma during the pandemic networks provides even faster broadband used during emergencies. The choice Design & society p78 connectivity. But should public safety and of language and tone can be either Otto Dettmer | Ikon Images mission critical organisations switch to helpful or detrimental in a crisis (p73). 5G now? Mladen Vratonjić investigates On p64 Lina Kolesnikova examines how Covid-19 has disrupted working and Gathering momentum: NextGen 112 ..........94 shopping habits, as well as the ways Freddie McBride explores the merits of we access healthcare and information. implementing Next Generation 112 in She says that the very essence of what emergency services communications we define as ‘critical’ infrastructure is Regulars being transformed. This brings new risks in terms of resilience and security, Events.............................................................96 including in the areas of technology we Frontline.........................................................98 have come to rely upon during Covid-19. Lord Martin Rees, Astronomer Royal, speaks Design is another undervalued to Claire Sanders about his research on but essential piece in the jigsaw of existential threats, climate and astrophysics humanitarian and emergency response disciplines. David Wales notes on Healthcare workers p82 p76: “As the meeting point between states and communities, public service agencies would greatly benefit from making design a standard approach.” The key lies in understanding people – their culture, fears, concerns, past experiences and predispositions. Michele Wucker calls this an individual’s unique risk fingerprint (p44). All of the above should be combined with a simple shift of focus onto the people dealing with – and affected by – a crisis, says Thomas Lahnthaler (p50). Because, above all, we must not forget Vampy1 | 123rf that crisis management is about people. Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 3

Concerns for children amid volcanic eruption in DRC THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE fled Goma dangers to children increase,” cautioned a avert what threatens to be a catastrophe following the May 22 eruption of the Unicef representative. “We must be alert to for children,” said Unicef.  Mount Nyiragongo volcano, which caused immediate risks for children on the move, at least 32 deaths and left 40 missing in including protection issues, nutrition and Nearly 1,000 children were separated from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. health risks, including waterborne disease their parents amid the chaos following the and especially the spread of cholera.” first day; Unicef helped to reunite around 700 As the authorities advised people in parts of children with their families. An additional Goma to vacate their homes owing to the risk Thousands of those fleeing Goma – many 142 children were placed in transitional of another volcanic eruption, Unicef warned of them on foot, carrying mattresses and foster families, while 78 were in transit that as many as 400,000 people – including cooking utensils – headed to the nearby town accommodation centres. But more than 170 280,000 children – could be displaced of Sake, an area prone to cholera outbreaks. families were still looking for lost children and in need of protection or support. and Unicef expressed concern that the chaos “With an increased danger of a of the evacuations would result in more “Whenever large groups of people are cholera epidemic, we are appealing children being separated from their families.  displaced in a short period of time, the for urgent international assistance to Nyiragongo volcano erupts above Goma on May 22, 2021 UNICEF | UN0466156 |Acland Extreme flooding is set to continue AN INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH analysed over 170 peer-reviewed scientific regions. The study shows that human papers. They found that in small and urban activity has an impact on increases in team has concluded that increases in catchments in many parts of the world, extreme daily rainfall, augmenting the extreme rainfall has increased the chance likelihood of some significant events. extreme rainfall and associated flooding of floods occurring and their magnitude. In larger, rural catchments, floods depend The findings show that the risk of flash are projected to continue as global on different factors and flooding is less flooding on urban areas has likely grown directly linked with extreme rainfall events. in recent decades, owing to the expanding temperatures continue to rise. Efforts to impermeable landscape increasing surface Their analysis also suggests that increases runoff, and more extreme rainfall. limit warming to +1.5°C will help limit in daily extreme rainfall rates have been ■ The ScienceBrief Review, Climate change observed globally and on continental scales changes in extreme rainfall, though some through the 20th and early 21st centuries, increases extreme rainfall and the chance of floods, and that global warming is driving increases is published as part of a collection on Critical Issues in societal adaptations will still be required. in short-duration rainfall extremes in some Climate Change Science, prepared for the COP26 climate Sharing their findings in a new ScienceBrief conference to be held in Glasgow (2021) Review, scientists from Newcastle University, the University of East Anglia (UEA), the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), São Paulo, Brazil, 4 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

news Pandemic oxygen supply challenges in brief OXYGEN IS THE single most important should not be forced to ‘make do’ with the Burkina Faso: UN Secretary treatment for those suffering from Covid-19, insufficient resources they have available.” General António Guterres says Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in its May expressed outrage at an 2021 briefing paper, Gasping for Air: The deadly Dr Marc Biot, MSF Director of Operations attack on the village of Solhan. shortages in medical oxygen for Covid-19 patients. says: “Oxygen supply is often insufficient Armed men went on a killing because infrastructure has been neglected in spree, burning homes and the “This disease, and the many other conditions lower- and middle-income countries for decades.” local market. Approximately that require oxygen, are not going to 160 bodies were recovered disappear. The appropriate resources must be MSF further advises that access to oxygen by local people from three made available to ensure that the disparities concentrators must be scaled up as a matter mass graves, amid worries between wealthy and resource limited of urgency, with the support of donors. It that the death toll could rise. countries do not result in preventable deaths also adds that many hospitals and medical from Covid-19,” according to the paper. facilities are dependent on one source of Bangladesh: A shanty town oxygen, and that back-up mechanisms for fire in Dhaka destroyed at Oxygen is a crucial therapy for critically oxygen supply are crucial to saving lives. least 200 buildings after a ill Covid-19 patients, yet governments, blaze started in a kitchen. No global health organisations and donors Governments need to calculate oxygen casualties were reported. appear to be paying it less attention than needs for different scenarios and map oxygen they do to pharmaceutical treatments or resources before cases surge and hospitals Pakistan: At least 45 people vaccines. This needs to change, says the become overwhelmed. Furthermore, in died and more than 100 were NGO, because: “Oxygen saves lives.” countries where private suppliers of oxygen injured when two express play a key role, governments should keep trains crashed in the Ghotki MSF makes a number of recommendations to oxygen prices in check. MSF recommends that district, Sindh Province. Local the international community, including calling industrial oxygen producers and governments rescuers worked to pull for innovation in how oxygen is given to patients, should find ways to work together ahead of survivors from the carriages adding that international mechanisms, including shortages of oxygen for Covid-19 treatments. and the military deployed the WHO-led biomedical consortium and the troops and helicopters to help. Covid-19 Oxygen Emergency taskforce, should In addition, MSF recommends that ramp up efforts to support countries so that patients with Covid-19 in need of oxygen Italy: A cable car plunged they can access available funds and procure therapy must be admitted to hospital earlier 20 metres into the side of the necessary tools for oxygen provision. It and warns that there is often also a lack of the Mottarone mountain says: “With so many lives at stake, healthcare adequately trained staff to administer oxygen. near Lake Maggiore, killing workers and patients in low-income settings ■ The full briefing paper can be downloaded from msf.org 14 people. Prosecutors ■ Dr Peter Patel reports on India’s healthcare situation, p32 opened an investigation into suspected involuntary The looming risk of Biodisaster X manslaughter and negligence. WITH ADVANCES IN science and Its findings show that Biodisaster X has the India: At least 17 workers, mostly women, died in a fire technology, biotechnology is becoming more potential to upend lives and livelihoods and at a chemical factory in Pune. accessible to people of all demographics, destroy economies, essentially posing a looming Brazil: A four-storey building collapsed in the Rio das Pedras say the authors of a new study. risk for civilisations worldwide. To shed light on area of Rio de Janeiro, killing one person and a child. These advances hold the promise of the threats, the researchers detail effective AI World: A server issue caused substantially improving personal and population and 6G-enabled strategies, ranging from natural the websites of thousands of major organisations to wellbeing and welfare. However, the authors language processing to deep learning-based crash. The disruption was attributed to a software say: “It is paradoxical that while greater image analysis, in order to address issues ranging bug at the US-based cloud computing services provider, access to biotechnology on a population level from early Biodisaster X detection, remote Fastly. Outages lasted no more than an hour, but caused has many advantages, it may also increase design and development of pharmaceuticals chaos for organisations. The incident raises questions about the likelihood and frequency of biodisasters and public health, as well as disaster recovery. reliance on a small number of companies to maintain the due to accidental or malicious use.” They conclude that Biodisaster X is Internet’s infrastructure. Similar to ‘Disease X’, which describes a looming, but avoidable catastrophe: unknown naturally emerging pathogenic “Considering the potential human and diseases with the potential to cause a economic consequences Biodisaster X could pandemic, researchers term this unknown cause, actions that can effectively monitor risk from biotechnologies ‘Biodisaster X’. and manage Biodisaster X threats must be To date, no studies have examined the taken promptly and proactively,” they note. potential role of information technologies Rather than depending on the overstretched in preventing and mitigating Biodisaster professional attention of health experts and X. However, the Journal of Medical Internet government officials, the researchers suggest Research has now published a study exploring it might be more cost-effective and practical what Biodisaster X might entail and how to deploy technology-based solutions to solutions using artificial intelligence (AI) prevent and control Biodisaster X threats. and emerging 6G technologies could help ■ J Med Internet Res 2021;23(5):e26109; monitor and manage such threats. doi:10.2196/26109 Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 5

PEOPLE The Emergency Services ‘Oscars’ CRJ is delighted to welcome two new Members THE 112 AWARDS Ceremony recognises organisations and citizens to its Advisory panel for their exceptional contribution to improving and driving change for people’s safety. Organised by the European Emergency Number DAVID WALES MSc, CCXP, FRSA is the Association (EENA), the ceremony usually runs in conjunction with Founder of SharedAim Ltd, a customer the association’s annual conference. However, this year was slightly experience consultancy that helps different. On June 2, an announcement on social media was organised organisations design and deliver human- and each awardee and their story were given individual recognition. centred services. David instigated and led a pioneering study of human Vasilis Patelakis took home the First Aid Ambassador Award, for behaviour and motivation that continues to influence saving one of his customers from choking while eating at his restaurant thinking and practice in the UK and international Fire and on the Greek island of Crete by performing the Heimlich manoeuvre. Rescue Services. He introduced the concept of customer experience to the UK Fire and Rescue Service and took After the incident, he published CCTV footage from the rescue the lead as its first Customer Experience Manager. on social media to raise awareness about the importance of first aid As an operational fire officer, he attended thousands techniques. Several people contacted him to say that they managed to of emergencies in various roles and oversaw the UK save someone’s life thanks to his video. On receiving the accolade, he response to the first fire in the Channel Tunnel, for which said: “It is a great honour to receive this 112 Award. My purpose from he received a commendation. He developed a combined the beginning was to upload this video in order to make people see how service model and wrote the national guidance for fire important first aid knowledge is. In a perfect world, first aid lessons investigation practice. would be taught in every school. I hope this will come true one day.” He has worked extensively with academia and his own research focuses on the human experience of The second trophy was given to the AS Roma football team, which emergencies. He completed his MSc in Risk, Crisis and partnered with the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children in Disaster Management at the University of Leicester, with the US and Telefono Azzurro in Italy, using the club’s social media channels a dissertation titled Unrecognised: The public role as first to include pictures of missing children in social media posts announcing new responders to dwelling fires. signings. This campaign, which managed to find missing children around David is an Advisor to the Avoidable Deaths Network the world, earned the team the Outstanding Social Media 112 Award. and works with commercial organisations, professional bodies, government departments, emergency and AS Roma defender, Max Kumbulla said: “I discovered that my new club humanitarian agencies, allowing him to transfer insights was working with organisations around the world as a part of the ‘Missing and practice between sectors. Children’ campaign, using videos of new player signings to give visibility to missing children across the globe. In fact, a young girl from my announcement DR GIANLUCA PESCAROLI is Assistant video was found safe, and for me, that was an incredibly emotional feeling.” Professor and Lecturer in Business Continuity and Organisational Resilience at University Co-ordinating this campaign was Roma’s former Chief Strategy Officer, College London (UCL). Paul Rogers. For his creativity and the use of social media for good, he His research investigates how to build and was also awarded with the Outstanding Social Media 112 Award. improve the continuity of operations during disruptive events, how to minimise their impact and increase the The swift and professional international collaboration between call- resilience of public and private sectors. This includes takers saved the life of a grandmother in Estonia after her granddaughter managing complex challenges such as cascading risks, called the UK emergency services to request help. For this joint effort, critical infrastructure failures, systemic and compound Megan Hollinrake, call-taker at the North West Ambulance Service dynamics. (NWAS) and Birgit Krullo, call-taker at the Estonian Emergency Response Gianluca’s work is impact-orientated, aiming to bridge Centre, were both awarded the Call-taker Collaboration Award. academia and practice. In 2016, he co-founded the Research Group on Cascading Disasters at UCL. Hollinrake explained: “I received the emergency 999 call from a lady in Since then, he has contributed to strategic Manchester needing assistance for her grandma in Estonia, who was having documents such as the UN Office for Disaster Risk difficulty breathing. This was a team effort where my colleague helped Reduction’s Guidelines on National Risk Assessment, pass the information over to the other ambulance service in Estonia.”  and edited reports such as the Guidelines on Cascading Effects of Wide-Area Power Failures in collaboration with Krullo was also moved to receive the award: “I am very thankful to my London Resilience. He was one of the lead authors of the colleagues in the UK who contacted the Estonian Emergency Response Flagship Report Science for Disaster Risk Management Centre so we were able to send out help for this grandmother in Haapsalu.” 2020: acting today, protecting tomorrow, drafted by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre. This year, EENA’s 112 Inspirational Role Model Award went He consults with local authorities and international to Dr Ola Brown, who pioneered West Africa’s first air-operated organisations on resilience to cascading scenarios and emergency medical services in Lagos – the Flying Doctors Nigeria. stress testing. In 2020, he became the director of UCL’s multi-disciplinary Masters programme in Risk, Disaster Staying in the air, the Remarkable Rescue Award was given to six and Resilience. volunteer firefighters from Carpentras (SDIS 84), who intervened and saved a heart attack victim on board a plane flying over Canada. The last award of the afternoon, the Public Safety Answering Points (PSAP Award), went to the Kuopio Emergency Response Centre for its incredibly fast response to a sword attack at a college in Kuopio, Finland. The first call was responded to within two seconds, the assignment was forwarded in less than 60 seconds and the police reached the attacker in eight minutes from the time the first emergency call was received. The Savo Vocational College, where the attack took place, recorded a video expressing its thanks for the Finnish Emergency Response Centre Agency’s fast response. ■ www.eena.org 6 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

Shipwreck oil spill fears news AS CRJ WENT to press, a chemical- Sri Lankan Navy personnel, wearing protective gear, clear the beach from debris and other materials that laden cargo ship, which had been washed ashore from the crippled container cargo vessel MV X-Press Pearl, on the beach of burning for almost two weeks, was Negombo, north-west of Colombo sinking off the coast of Sri Lanka.  Chamila Karunarathne | EPA-EFE | Shutterstock Hundreds of tonnes of oil from the X-Press Pearl’s fuel tanks could leak into the sea.  Sri Lankan and Indian navies worked jointly to put out the fire and prevent the ship from breaking up and sinking.  The fire on the boat raged for nearly two weeks. Once extinguished, the salvage company began towing it towards deeper seas, but the operation was halted as the stern of the boat was bumping the seabed and began to settle to the bottom of the sea. Sri Lankan marine and coastal protection authorities warned about an environmental crisis as tonnes of plastic waste and pellets from the ship washed ashore. The island’s Fisheries Ministry urged fishermen not to venture out into the coastal waters. Genocide and chemical weapons Permafrost melt feedback warnings ISLAMIC STATE IN Iraq and the Levant other international crimes were also committed RAPID ARCTIC WARMING has (ISIL/Da’esh) committed genocide against the against the Yazidi community, including intensified northern wildfires and is thawing carbon-rich permafrost, Yazidi and war crimes against unarmed cadets extermination, enslavement, sexual violence, according to a paper published in the proceedings of the US and military personnel at Tikrit Air Academy, forcible transfer, persecution on religious and National Academy of the Sciences. the head of the UN team investigating these gender grounds, and conscription of children Carbon emissions from permafrost thaw and Arctic wildfires are crimes told the Security Council in May, 2021. into an armed group. “But let us not forget, not fully accounted for in global emissions budgets, and will greatly Karim Asad Ahmad Khan, Special Adviser these crimes are ongoing,” warned Khan. reduce the amount of greenhouse gases that humans can emit to and Head of the UN Investigative Team to Turning to the June 2014 attacks by remain below 1.5°C or 2°C. Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed ISIL on predominantly Shia unarmed More than 70 countries announced ambitious nationally determined by Da’esh/Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant air cadets and personnel from Tikrit Air contributions as part of their Paris Agreement commitments; but the (Unitad), said: “Unitad has established clear Academy, he said the team has compiled carbon budgets that informed them were incomplete, as they do not fully and convincing evidence that genocide was and analysed extensive evidence detailing account for Arctic feedbacks. “There is an urgent need to incorporate committed by ISIL against the Yazidi as a their capture, torture and mass execution. the latest science on carbon emissions from permafrost thaw and religious group.” Khan noted that the intent Information obtained from ISIL electronic northern wildfires into international consideration of how much more of ISIL to destroy the Yazidi, physically and devices also led to the opening of a new aggressively societal emissions must be reduced to address the global biologically, is manifest in its ultimatum investigation into the development and climate crisis,” the paper says. and applied remorselessly to all members successful deployment of chemical and ■ Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global climate goals: doi.org/10.1073/ of their community – to convert or die. biological weapons by ISIL in Iraq, Khan pnas.2100163118 Thousands were killed, either executed en continued. Evidence details how ISIL used masse, shot as they fled or perishing from laboratories at Mosul University as the exposure on Mount Sinjar as they tried to escape, epicentre of its chemical weapons programme, he said, adding that thousands more were drawing on the expertise of scientists and enslaved, with women and children abducted medical professionals from Iraq and abroad.  and subjected to brutal abuses, including serial Initially weaponising chlorine from water rape and other forms of sexual violence. treatment plants that were taken over in For many, this abuse lasted years, 2014, ISIL developed toxic lethal compounds often leading to death. The intent was including thallium and nicotine, which to destroy the capacity of these women were tested on live prisoners. As its capacity and children to have children and build strengthened, it developed a sulphur mustard families within the Yazidi community. production system that was deployed in The team has established that numerous March 2016 through the firing of 40 rockets. Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 7

If home-working is the answer, what is the question? Remote and online working has been a successful solution for many organisations during Covid-19 restrictions and lockdowns. But is working from home just a useful stop-gap, or the right way forward? Lyndon Bird investigates The vast majority of readers of have probably been other hand, the negatives are nebulous – what is the real value working from home for considerable periods over of meeting new professional colleagues, catching up with old the past 15 months in just one of many changes to business acquaintances, or chatting face-to-face with international working practices adopted as a result of Covid-19. experts? For a financial controller it is a no-brainer – so, should I generally work from home but often travel to all conferences become virtual events from now on? speak at international conferences, so lack of business travel is my main change. If we take the example of professional A purely financial approach ignores the most fundamental aspect conferences, there are positives and negatives to consider in of human behaviour – the need to meet other people and share space switching to virtual events. If we put them down on a spreadsheet, and time with them. We are social animals. We need to get together the positives from an accountancy perspective would easily with others to share thoughts, feelings, ideas, hopes and sometimes outweigh the negatives. We can see a much wider range of complaints. Gossip with an old friend can often put our world to speakers; it is easy for anyone to attend, with large savings on rights and boost morale for weeks. Many people use conferences airfares and hotel costs and less time out of the office. On the purely for networking and developing valuable future contacts. Working collectively has been the primary means by which Advisory Panel Dennis Davis CBE, OStJ, QFSM, MPhil, Dr Jennifer Hesterman US Air Force CEng, FIFireE, CCMI, Civil Protection (Retired), Vice President at Watermark Risk Paola Albrito Chief of Branch, Advisor, Vice Chairman FSF, VP, CTIF, Management International, adviser at the Intergovernmental processes, Interagency UK Homeland Security Training Institute, co-ordination & Partnerships, UNDRR Chloe Demrovsky President and CEO of College of DuPage, USA Albrecht Beck Director Prepared Disaster Research Institute International Deborah Higgins Head of the Cabinet International, Senior Disaster Preparedness (DRI), USA Office Emergency Planning College, UK and Evacuation Expert, Germany Major Erik L J L De Soir Associate Lyndon Bird Chief Knowledge Officer at Professiate Professor in Psychotraumatology Alice Hill Senior Fellow for Climate DRI International (Disaster Recovery & Crisis Psychology, Royal Higher Institute Change Policy at the Council on Foreign Institute), UK of Defence, Belgium Relations, USA Andy Blackwell Independent Security and Brian Dillon MSc BSc (Hons), expert in Brig Gen D Alois A Hirschmugl Resilience Consultant, former Head of counter-terrorism operational response and Humanitarian Affairs Advisor to Chief of Corporate Security, Virgin Atlantic contingency planning, UK Defence Staff, Austria Helen Braithwaite OBE, Head of Colonel Robert ‘Rob’ Fagan US Army Arn Howitt MA, PhD, Executive Director, National Cyber Security, Standards, (Retired), Crisis Management Consultant, Ash Center for Democratic Governance & Training & Exercising, Ministry of Housing, USA Innovation, John F Kennedy School of Communities & Local Government, UK Paolo Garonna Professor of Political Government, Harvard University, USA Andrew B Brown CMgr FCMI, FSyl, Economy, LUISS Guido Carli University of Lucian Hudson Board Chair, Chief Security Officer and independent Crisis Rome, Italy Communications Director, former UK and Hostage Negotiation Expert, UK Roger Gomm QPM, Advisor, Trainer, Government Chief Spokesperson on climate Winston Chang Global Thematic Focal Consultant, Associate Lecturer, Cabinet change Point for the International Search & Rescue Office Emergency Planning College, UK Christine Jessup is a professional Advisory Group Secretariat, Geneva Beverley Griffiths Senior Lecturer in educator of more than 35 years, based in Dr Gregory Ciottone MD, FACEP, Emergency Planning, University of Australia FFSEM, President of the World Association Wolverhampton, UK Ørjan N Karlsson Specialist Director, for Disaster and Emergency Medicine, USA Lord Toby Harris Chair of the National Directorate for Civil Protection & Emergency Jeremy Collymore Honorary Research Preparedness Commission, UK Planning (CPEP), Norway Fellow, Institute of Sustainable Development, Arjun Katoch Emergency and Disaster University of West Indies Management Advisor, India Elton Cunha Municipal Director of Barra Velha Municipal Civil Defence, Brazil 8 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

comment humanity has progressed from the Stone Age to the not be done alone. At the end of the first Covid wave Irstone | 123rf advanced technological state taken for granted today. in the US, I produced a survey and analysis for DRI Working together is fundamentally why the concept of International, which asked resilience professionals companies was originally invented. The word company how they saw the post-Covid workplace. I found means ‘being together’ and this is what a business that 92 per cent of respondents agreed that more company is about – doing things together that could home-working would be permitted, with only eight Lina Kolesnikova Consultant in Mostafa Mohaghegh Senior Co- Terje Skavdal Project Manager, USAR international relations, security, risk and ordinator, Asia and Pacific Centre for Capacity Building, Norwegian Directorate crisis management, Brussels, Belgium Development of Disaster Information for Civil Protection, Norway Dr Patrick Lagadec Former Senior Management (APDIM) Andrew Staniforth Director of Saher Research Scientist, Paris, Consultant in Mike O’Neill CSyP FSyI, Managing Europe, UK crisis intelligence and leadership, France Director of Optimal Risk Group, UK Dr Jay Levinson Adj Professor at the John Dr Jörg Szarzynski Education Jay College of Criminal Justice, USA Peter Patel Founder and International Programme Director, Head of Section Director of the Faculty of Disaster Medicine EduSphere, United Nations University, Maj Gen Jassim Al Mansouri Former - India & Nepal Germany Director General of the Kuwait Fire Service Alvaro Pemartin MD Emergency Doctor, Denise DP Thompson PhD, Associate Directorate, Kuwait Nostra Senyora de Meritxell Hospital, Professor, Department of Public Management, Andy Marshall GPO Group Director, Andorra John Jay College of Criminal Justice, NY, Business Continuity Management, Dr Gianluca Pescaroli Assistant USA AstraZeneca, UK Professor and Lecturer in Business Andy Towler Expert in disaster and Laurence Marzell Innovation Lead, UK Continuity and Organisational Resilience at emergency management and founder of The & Europe, Serco UCL, UK Resilience Group Ltd, UK William Peterson Senior Consultant, Mladen Vratonjić Board Chair and Stewart Mashiter Senior Lecturer in Strategic Government Resources, former Director at TCCA, UK, Vice President, Emergency Planning, University of Regional Administrator, FEMA Region 6 EENA Wolverhampton, UK Kate Rawlins Associate Director, Digital David Wales MSc CCXP FRSA, Founder Robert McAlister Strategic Co- Capability at Helpful Digital, UK of SharedAim Ltd, UK ordination and Crisis Specialist, UK David Rubens DSyRM, CSyP, FSyl, MD Charles Werner Founder and Director of Eric J McNulty Associate Director and Deltar Training Services Ltd, UK Droneresponders, USA Program Faculty, NPLI, Harvard University, USA Jacqui Semple Chair of the Emergency Tomasz Zweglinski Director at the Matt Minshall Specialist in defence, Planning Society, UK Internal Security Institute at the Main security and resilience project management, School of Fire Service, Warsaw, Poland UK Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 9

per cent expressing any doubts. This result was understandable, savings, as many might be illusory. Who pays for all the IT and but 71 per cent also believed that working from home would telecoms equipment needed at home? What about support, or become compulsory, with no office alternative. This observation consistent hardware, software and security updates? How does concerned me, but I suspect it will turn out to be incorrect. it affect insurance cover – including business interruption? What happens to the technology when people leave? How are I wrote at the time: “Even for those who can technically work new starters supplied with kit and properly trained before use? from home, there are challenges… not everyone has the living How easy is it to commit fraud in a remote environment? accommodation or lifestyle that can support home-working. Not everyone’s family life is conducive to staying at home all the During lockdown, short cuts have been permitted, with people time. Young, single people at the start of their careers often see sharing their own computer for personal and company usage. It their working location as where they meet new people, make is known that this causes additional vulnerabilities and that the new friends and even find a long-term partner. However slick number of cyberattacks has escalated. How do you ensure that technology becomes, it does not replace the office rumour mill, any viruses and other malware in your domestic system are not the off-the-cuff comment at the coffee machine, or the after office being transferred to your business systems now and in the future? drink with colleagues following a stressful day. Most people prefer to separate home life from office life. Most of us went Duty of care, legal liabilities and insurance are also likely to be from full-time education to full-time careers based at a specific key elements of any decision. Employees working from home need location. The separation of home and workplace is as crucial to be treated the same as those in the office from a health and safety psychologically for young adults as school attendance is for perspective. What happens if a person is injured or even killed children. Cities are the great cultural meeting point that ambitious while working from home? What happens if an employee claims young people strive to become part of. That will not change.” long-term disability owing to stress from home-working? The effect on company financial liabilities and reputation might be sizeable. One reason compulsory home-working is being considered is the financial savings a company could make by reducing the In some ways this whole debate often misses the elephant in need for centralised office accommodation. There are already the room. Of course, when asked, many will say they like home- stories about companies not renewing leases or renegotiating working – but they will also say yes if you ask them whether they smaller floor space. This has resulted in another opinion want a regular pay rise, longer holidays and guaranteed annual that has become popular with the media – the possible promotions. This doesn’t mean you can, or should, provide all demise of large cities. I don’t agree with this either. of that. People who enjoy home-working as a novelty need to understand that it will not come without fundamental consequences, Far reaching purpose and consequences notably immediately extending the candidate pool for good jobs, given that living in proximity to your place of work no longer I wonder how many readers might answer ‘yes’ to one or more matters. Candidates from all areas of a country and from lower of the following questions: Did you meet your spouse or partner labour cost countries will ultimately increase supply into what at work? Have you got long-term close friends you met originally could be reduced demand for labour as artificial intelligence takes at work, but you no longer work together? And do you feel your hold. You don’t need to be an economic guru to understand where work has developed your interpersonal skills and given you increased supply and reduced demand lead to – lower salaries, fewer balance and maturity in dealing with difficult situations? job vacancies and reduced job security. Working from home will make local employment markets global, so it is not a free bonus Work has a purpose and consequences far beyond what a job for any employees, however senior or skilled they might be. description defines it to be, and home-working is not a new idea – many of us have been doing it for several years. It is popular for A hybrid or blended model is needed to mitigate some of these some people who wish to avoid the daily commute, but not for issues. The link between office and employees cannot be completely others, who like the routine, structure and the social aspects of severed and new relationships do still need a chance to form office life. And it is probably only possible for around 40 per cent and develop. Cost savings might be less dramatic than expected, of the working population, according to several academic studies. but overall performance and productivity could improve. For large scale, information-based businesses, such as banking, Remote working during this emergency has been successful insurance and accountancy, home-working is a great strategy largely because relationships with colleagues, suppliers or customers for business continuity, but most planners have included it in were already established. With any future working model, we response plans for years. We didn’t realise it would work so well need to find ways of building new relationships with customers, or be sustainable for so long, but the pandemic has proven its suppliers, bosses and colleagues when we meet them less often. value. However, it is still not a business as usual strategy – what we have done so far is simply extended the disaster recovery Technology gives us the chance to be much smarter at work, time horizons. Moving people from central offices to home has but it must be used imaginatively and sensitively. Replacing a worked well as an emergency or contingency measure, but this luxurious city centre office with a spare bedroom or a kitchen is far from a fundamental change. I believe we have a solution table will soon pall and ambitious young people will gravitate that just about works technically and with which a reasonable towards employers who can meet their social needs. percentage of workers are content. To move further in this direction, organisations must face many issues that they have If I were leaving university today, would I seek a company that understandably chosen to ignore during the pandemic. gave me an office in a global city, international business travel and a chance to build strong relationships with like-minded people? Top management has to accept that this is not a technical Or would I prefer to stay at home with my phone and computer? issue – it is a complex business decision with multiple facets. As Children need school for much more than just gaining information; such, it needs to be planned at the strategic level with input young adults need a real business location for much more than just from all main business areas. Companies must understand and earning a living. implement approaches that are HR rather than financially driven. The effect on people might be far reaching and Author damaging to long-term business credibility and performance. LYNDON BIRD is Chief Knowledge Officer for Disaster Chief Financial Officers need to investigate the claimed financial Recovery Institute (DRI) International, chair of DRI’s Future Vision Committee, and a Member of the CRJ’s Advisory Panel 10 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

RISK RESILIENCE & SECURITY ADVISERS Organisational Resilience Consulting and Planning � Crisis Management Planning and Preparedness � Crisis Management Planning and Preparedness Executive Close Protection and Travel Logistics � Investigation and Surveillance Services � Risk and Security Consulting � Physical Penetration Testing � Specialist Security Systems �Cyber Security � Digital Forensics Special Projects WWW.OPTIMALRISK.COM +44 (0)20 7118 8870

The rise of resistance Enhancing capability of in-country INGO staff can help them to understand military, police and criminal tactics and develop a resistance mindset, so that they may continue to accompany, serve and advocate for those who need them most and guide them back to peace safely. Andrew B Brown elaborates The Collins English Dictionary definition where violence and the erosion of human rights are daily Robert Boc | of ‘resistance movement’ is: “A encounters for those who just want to live in peace. Alamy movement fighting (for freedom, etc), often secretly or illegally, against Often associated with meeting violence with violence, an invader in an occupied country resistance movements have adapted to become non- or against the country’s government, etc.” violent, where the unarmed populace confronts the adversary by using collective action, including protests, Growing up in Scotland, we would often visit the site of demonstrations, strikes and non-cooperation, to the Battle of Bannockburn as we learned about Scottish build power to inform and influence political goals. history and the role in which Robert the Bruce, King Sometimes referred to as civil disobedience, people of Scots, played against the army of King Edward II power, unarmed struggle or non-violent resistance, this of England. I was fascinated by the quotation from the has become a tactic for political action across the globe. Declaration of Arbroath displayed below the statue of Bruce: “We Fight Not For Glory, Nor For Wealth, Nor Recent research clearly demonstrates the rise Honour But Only And Alone We Fight For Freedom in non-violent and violent mass campaigns, which Which No Good Man Surrenders But With His Life.” shows that while violent insurgencies have declined since the 1970s, there is a clear and sharp increase My family history is embedded in two resistance in the number of non-violent campaigns. movements; the first being my grandfather, a doctor in the Royal Army Medical Corps, who was parachuted Statistics indicate 15 mass non-violent campaigns into wartime France to collaborate with the Maquis, erupted at the beginning of 2019, with some 24 others treating wounded allied airmen so that they could be that were continuing as 2019 ended. Possibly derived repatriated to continue the fight against Nazi Germany. from a greater knowledge through the consumption My wife’s grandfather was a doctor in Limassol, Cyprus, of online media in private chat rooms, websites, and became a member of the Ethnikí Orgánosis online campaigns and social media, many have Kipriakoú Agónos (EOKA), tending to wounded seen the use of non-violent resistance as a legitimate fighters to support the struggle that would see the end and largely successful means of creating change. of British colonial rule over the island. Like many others, he was arrested, detained in a concentration Tactical adaptation camp and tortured before his eventual release. While there are many success stories from across Both came from a stoic generation that never disclosed the world where civil resistance has persuaded what they had endured in their contribution to what they change in governments across a range of subjects felt and knew was the right thing to do, no matter the cost. such as racial justice, immigration justice, gun control, women’s rights and climate justice, there is Throughout my policing career I encountered an adaptation by governments to respond and reduce many protests where people felt they were standing the effectiveness of such civil resistance movements. up for what was right and just. As a negotiator, I learned the key to reducing emotional tension in this Entrenched regimes have proved to be especially interaction between the police and the protesters resilient in the face of repeated challenges, using various was through constructive dialogue to empathise and tactics such as: Shoring up support from local allies and understand their plight, but also to be able to facilitate key constituencies; imprisoning prominent opposition a peaceful protest where their voices could be heard. individuals; provoking opponents into using violence; stoking fears of foreign or imperial conspiracies; or Transitioning into the humanitarian sector, I naively obtaining diplomatic cover from powerful international thought that the skills I had gained during three supporters. With the rich history of successful non-violent decades of policing would gradually fade away as campaigns, state actors are more likely to infiltrate my currency lapsed into retirement. I was wrong. movements and divide them from within. In this way, the authorities can provoke a non-violent movement Working with a global faith-based INGO with into using more militant tactics, including violence, operations across some 50 countries, I have observed before the movement has built a broad enough base to first-hand the rise in resistance by the populations of many ensure its popular support and staying power. While countries as they struggle against oppressive regimes 12 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twit

analysis many states have begun to anticipate and suppress conflicts where misinformation is produced by both such resistance and disobedience by the populace, civil resistance movements have used the restrictions of sides to cause confusion, both internally and externally. the coronavirus pandemic to rethink their tactics. However, staff training will refresh knowledge and So what does this mean for INGOs operating in such environments? While there are many factors that influence awareness on how to act, especially around the key risk appetite and assessment for operating in such complex environments, there is a shift in how to keep staff and activities of hibernation, relocation and evacuation. beneficiaries safe during times of civil disobedience as they strive to campaign peacefully for democracy. Information sharing with other INGOs and partners in In our usual guidance to staff in the field we often a secure and vetted environment is essential to anticipate identify the risks from terrorism, crime, travel and health safety and cultural awareness, where the expectation the next moves of a governing body that is predominantly is that the ruling government is there to protect and serve its people. Sadly, with ever increasing frequency, militaristic in we have observed military coups taking over the governing of a country dissatisfied with the result of its control and There is a shift in a democratic vote and then imposing a raft of unjust outlook. Having laws to curb individual and collective freedoms. access to those with how to keep staff and How should we operate in such environments to keep expertise and a our staff safe, but also to enable staff to accompany, serve and advocate those who need us most? good knowledge of beneficiaries safe during the country’s history, One way is to establish a cross functional and combined with times of civil disobedience collaborative crisis management team to assess the impact of the newly imposed environment and good intelligence as they strive to campaign laws on how we operate in the field through the key analysis, helps to pillars of awareness, anticipation and avoidance. anticipate what peacefully for democracy Raising awareness among staff of the current and emerging situation through good analysis of information might happen next and intelligence, is an ever-increasing challenge in and, importantly, how to prepare for it. An understanding of military and police tactics in crowd control – again, combined with good credible intelligence – means you can brief staff on how to keep safe as they continue to accompany and serve communities during turbulent times. Understanding the peaks and troughs in state violence allows the imposition of temporary travel bans on staff movement so that they may navigate the country during lulls in violence. 13

In countries ruled by a military body, governments Community and peer pressure will inevitably force quickly impose restrictions on the ability to communicate some staff into accompanying protesters on marches, as freely, rapidly closing down internet and communications they want to join their brothers and sisters in morally networks and, when they become operational again, this standing up for what is right. An understanding of how is usually accompanied by intrusive surveillance. Staff the use of force is deployed within policing protests can must be aware of the content and wording of newly help staff to comprehend police actions and identify imposed laws that seek to control the population’s where they go beyond what is just and lawful. freedom of expression. With emotions running high, it Policing protest is based on three main components – is all too easy for staff, sometimes pressured by their necessity, proportionality and precaution. These norms peers or community, to be vocal on social media to are binding on all states as general principles of law. ‘like’ or ‘share’ posts by a civil resistance group. But Necessity and proportionality set limits on how and when this could provide sufficient justification for police to force may be used lawfully during policing actions. Law locate and detain staff through their use of social media enforcement officials must comply with both principles: platforms that openly criticise the ruling government. failure to respect either principle will usually mean that a Some governing victim’s human rights bodies will act With increasing frequency, have been violated by quickly to control the state. In contrast, internet access to the military coups are taking over the principle of general population, precaution applies so monitoring https:// the governing of a country upstream; it requires netblocks.org will help states to ensure that you understand the dissatisfied with the result of a law enforcement pattern of behaviour democratic vote and imposing operations are of the ruling body as it planned and endeavours to control a raft of unjust laws to curb conducted so as online access, both individual and collective freedoms to minimise the inside and outside risk of injury. the country, making Unfortunately, it more challenging this does not for media reporting, particularly of atrocities. Also, be always happen and, as we have seen in many civil aware that government surveillance of social media and resistance movements, police and military often messaging, the favourite platform for civil resistance target the leaders of protests through the use of fatal groups to co-ordinate mass protests, is used to identify force in an attempt to break the will of the people. locations, numbers of protesters and identifiable leaders of Staff should be aware of how to keep safe in a a planned protest. Shutting down the Internet overnight protest by knowing what to do and not to do, what then allows the police and military to move resources to to bring, what to wear, how to deal with tear gas the identified protest location before it even starts. Access and by knowing their rights. The Safety During to IT support is not only vital, but it is also essential Protest aide-mémoire by Amnesty International is that staff know how to stay safe and secure online. a good quick reference guide (amnestyusa.org). Advocating for peace Developing staff capability and capacity not only gives them the skills, but also the confidence that they are able Communication and media relations must be co- to help. Often, increasing their ability to administer first ordinated outside the country, not only to help protect aid – from minor injuries to dealing with gunshot wounds staff, but also to devise a strategy that ‘tells the story’ of until medical assistance can be sought – is lifesaving. atrocities and suffering in order to advocate for peace and Staff will no doubt encounter many things reconciliation, preferably in partnership with other bodies that could be traumatic, and how they navigate so as to increase collective pressure. This is also helpful in all these complex challenges psychologically will Zinko Hein | Unsplash relaying the picture to donors and grant funding bodies invariably have impacts on their mental health. so that we can acquire resilience in our finances and be A supportive network of peers and feeling part ready to assist quickly when the environment allows. of a team are essential to wellbeing, along with a The shutdown of the in-country banking system staff care system that can provide external one-to- and restrictions on ATM withdrawals rapidly lead to one support for those who are struggling but do money shortages for INGOs to pay staff and provide not wish to share their concerns with others. resources for those who need help. In some countries, Leaders taking the time to check in on organisations have had their accounts examined staff, briefing them as to the day’s activities and to ensure that they are not funding civil resistance helping to raise their awareness so that staff can movements. Building up cash reserves comes with risks, navigate difficulties with a degree of confidence, but it helps staff to have a degree of certainty when can be inspirational to those around them. planning for how long they can sustain field projects. You cannot underestimate the power of teamwork Be aware that some staff will resort to smuggling cash and a leader who not only cares, but helps guide a team from other towns where they have been able to access to achieve what many would see as being too risky in supplies. Alternatively, finding a co-operative supplier selflessly accompanying, serving and advocating for that takes online payments might help to mitigate some those who need us most. For me, this is true humanity. of the risks of managing and moving large sums of cash. Those in positions of influence must develop skills 14 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

analysis in de-escalating tensions between rival groups and Operating in such environments, where the providing the right atmosphere in which groups can come protectors of the community suddenly become the together to begin reconciliation towards peace. They perpetrators of violence against their own people need to draw on a deep well of wisdom and possess a who are striving for democracy, is challenging and natural ability to listen actively to either side in airing complex. Emotions run high and people are prepared grievances and to empathise with their respective and willing to lay down their lives for that freedom. plights. Skilful in negotiations, they will be able to exert influence internally within the country and with those in Carefully and skilfully enhancing capability of in- power, persuading them towards a more peaceful path. country staff can help them understand military, police and criminal tactics and develop a resistance mindset so The impact of violence within a country can quickly that they may continue to accompany, serve and advocate lead to mass displacement towards borders for refuge, for those who need us most and guide them back to peace to insecurity in food supplies and an unstable economy in the safest way possible. that can suddenly spiral a country into civil war as old wounds are reopened between warring factions. Author All this leads to one certainty in life – death. In ANDREW B BROWN is the Chief Security Officer this, those negotiating must be able to wield soft power, of an undisclosed INGO and an independent crisis/ which is influential in bringing behavioural change hostage negotiation consultant in the UK. He is a and creating an environment for peace to flourish. Member of the CRJ’s Advisory Panel Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 15

Turning a potential disaster Iceland’s Reykjanes peninsula is on fire. After a dormancy of almost 800 years, one of the volcanic fissure systems on the peninsula has started to erupt. Dóra Hjálmarsdóttir outlines the comprehensive safety precautions that have been put in place to protect communities, livelihoods and infrastructure T remors began a year before the eruption started on Húsavík in the north. There are frequent earthquakes March 19, 2021, with tens of thousands of earthquakes along the Ridge, signalling the Earth’s movements. reaching up to 5.2 registered in this period. These tremors Sometimes these movements herald an eruption, as in intensified in February 2021, leading up to the eruption. Geldingadalir at Fagradalsfjall – the current eruption. There are several volcanic fissure systems on the The earthquakes that shook the whole southwest of Reykjanes Peninsula, which become active approximately Iceland not only affected the population of about 28,000 every thousand years. This does not just involve an inhabitants in the immediate vicinity, but also 230,000 eruption of one fissure system; history tells us that people in the capital area of Reykjavík. Thousands of in every sequence, all of them have erupted during earthquakes shook the area in January and February, a period of about 300 years. According to this, we changed their nature in March and signalled pre-volcanic are just at the start of a long-standing event. tremors that led to an eruption on the night of March 19. The current eruption is on the fissure system furthest Iceland sits on top of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge where away from populated areas in the peninsula, so neither the tectonic plates of America and Europe are moving people nor infrastructure are currently threatened. apart, slowly but constantly, at a rate of around two to four centimetres every year. The gap is filled A disaster or a sensation? During the tremors, the continuously with molten magma and, when it opens location of a likely eruption was uncertain. Even up to the surface, we have an eruption. The Ridge though the peninsula is sparsely populated, it still crosses Iceland from the Reykjanes Peninsula in the has infrastructure and industries that are important south, ranging through the middle of the country to the Icelandic economy: Fishing ports at the coast; and meeting the North Atlantic Ocean offshore near the international airport in Keflavík; two geothermal 16 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

into a worldwide sensation power stations producing electricity and hot water for at Verkís engineering. These simulations show the area As CRJ went to communities and industries, including the main fresh that could be affected by lava flow from different locations press, more than water supply for the area; the renowned Blue Lagoon on the peninsula, including speed and accumulation. 94,000 visitors resort; and the ISAL aluminium factory. A vital electrical This work enables predesign proposals of protective had made their transmission line also runs along the northern coast. An measures such as dams or trenches, including established way to the volcano, eruption on a fissure system other than Fagradalsfjall work procedures for their construction, designed in often venturing could therefore present a serious threat to local co-operation with Efla engineering. Similar measures into dangerous communities and infrastructure. An eruption close to have been put into action around the world, such as areas, picking up Grindavík could cause lava flow into the village. Even in Hawaii, Italy, Japan and during the 1973 Heimaey warm lava stones though one can assume that evacuation of the population eruption on the Vestmann Islands in Iceland. or sitting on the would be conducted safely, such an event would cause warm edges of the a serious threat to livelihoods in the immediate area, Research has been carried out on the heat resistance lava flow, despite including damage to housing and infrastructure, as of underground pipes to protect them from molten the risks well as halting the production of electricity, hot lava on the surface. The utility companies HS orka water and drinking water for an extended period. and veitur, as well as transmission operator Landsnet, Anna Elísabet together with local municipal authorities, have played Ólafsdóttir Mitigating actions an active role in preparing mitigation activities. Working with the authorities, telecommunication companies Therefore, as scientists were fairly sure that the tremors have secured emergency equipment and operations would lead to an eruption, preparation for mitigating for maintaining telecommunication in populated actions were initiated as early as February. This included areas in the event of an eruption causing a blackout. extensive research into the nature of the volcanic activity in the area by scientists and engineers, as well as detailed Volcanic gases produced by the eruption, as well mapping of the area’s infrastructure. Scientists from the as wind direction, are closely monitored by the University of Iceland and the Icelandic Meteorological Meteorological Office so that inhabitants can be Office are monitoring current activity closely. notified. A special weather report is issued for the immediate area as well as for nearby communities, and Information from this research has fed simulations of monitoring of the volcanic gases has been intensified. lava flow from different fissure systems led by engineers This mitigation work has required close co-operation Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 17

Lava flow: Dams were built to divert the lava flow, but these were over-run Áki Thoroddsen between all parties, so regular online meetings are held by the Volcanic activity changed during these first two months of Civil Protection Authority to disseminate information on the activity, evolving from a couple of smaller craters to one main evolution of the eruption and the probable prognosis. Needless to crater spouting a lava fountain tens of metres into the air. This say, all parties have updated their emergency response plans. has also provided scientists with a unique opportunity to research and gather knowledge about the nature of volcanic activity However, the public has embraced the event as a once in a lifetime in the area, magma composition and prediction of further sensation. Instantly, there was a big rush to see the eruption. It took activity. No one can forecast precisely how long the activity some effort for people to get there at the beginning, since the area will last, but history tells us that there may be more to come. is off the beaten track. There was traffic chaos on the country roads leading to the site and people wandered off into the area. The Civil Therefore, preparations are being made for the site to become Protection Authority, alongside the police, the Red Cross and the a major tourist attraction in the near future when the pandemic ICESAR (which responds to emergencies, search and rescue, the abates. Interest from abroad has been growing and since it is assistance of travellers and public safety in general), soon brought expected that some travellers from Europe and the USA will be able the situation under control. From the first day onwards, these to visit soon, owing to vaccination and immunity against Covid-19, parties, in co-operation with scientists, local authorities and the potential visitors are well advised to acquaint themselves with travel population of Grindavík, have put in a tremendous amount of good restrictions before getting on a plane to Iceland to experience this and effective work to enable the public to visit the site safely. Traffic unique event. and parking spaces have been organised, walking paths laid and relocated, in co-operation with local authorities and land owners. Additional information The ICESAR, helped by volunteers from across the country, ■ Online cameras: Eldgosið í Geldingadölum í beinni útsendingu, RÚV: ruv.is and conducts safety watches, closely monitoring volcanic gases, Gosið í Geldingadölum í beinni: mbl.is; watching out for changes in the lava flow and wind direction, ■ Pandemic regulations for Iceland: covid.is/English; directing people to safe areas should conditions change and ■ Safetravel – The official source for safe adventure in Iceland: safetravel.is; helping those who have overestimated their physical abilities. ■ Iceland Public Safety: almannavarnir.is/eldgos This has enabled nearly 100,000 people to visit the site so Definitions far. The visitors are mostly Icelanders from the southwest corner of the country; very few foreign tourists are present ■ HS orka: Public utility producing electricity and hot water in Reykjanes; geothermal because of Covid-19 restrictions. Drones have been useful power plants in Reykjanes and Svartsengi; for close-ups and helicopters have been chartered for people ■ HS veitur: Public utility distributing electricity and hot water, producing and who do not want to – or cannot – make the hike. Photos and distributing drinking water in Reykjanes; videos have been posted on news websites and social media. ■ Landsnet: Transmits electric energy in the country; ■ Neyðarlínan: Emergency hotline and telecommunication TETRA It is magnificent and at the same time frightening to watch the glowing lava spouting from the earth, but one should not Author underestimate the dangers of poisonous volcanic gases and hot lava. The crust soon cools off, appearing black and safe, but underneath DÓRA HJÁLMARSDÓTTIR, MSc, CEM has been a consultant it is molten and red hot at 1,200°C. So it is important to keep a safe in emergency management since 1995, specialising in critical distance with the wind at your back and away from low-lying areas. infrastructure at Verkís Engineering Consultants Ltd, Iceland 18 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

Pix4Dreact 2D fast-mapping for emergency response and public safety Get rapid and reliable situational awareness from drone images in minutes Try for free at pix4d.com

What is nature’s worth? In a follow up to her article on the report on the Economics of Biodiversity, Claire Sanders speaks to lead author, Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta, about his research and the challenges facing global leaders P rofessor Dasgupta and his team of economists and countries lack good governance and trust between certain scientists published The Economics of Biodiversity: societies and their leaders is fragile and brittle. “The The Dasgupta Review this February (CRJ 16:1). Its root causes of many of the problems society faces are findings make it clear that humanity has been deeply hidden,” he says, and this is where the role of the outstripping nature’s supply with its demands since citizen comes in. “The Review places a special emphasis the mid-20th century, known as the Anthropocene on informed citizenship as a route to good governance, epoch. A fundamental change is needed in how because information about nature is very dispersed. nature is managed as an asset if we are to reverse the Citizens recognise some problems, but not others.” potentially devastating effects of biodiversity loss. Many of the Review’s recommendations rely on good Residents will be more than aware of the intrinsic value governance, trust and a sense of civic responsibility. of a natural feature – such as a peat bog – that provides I ask Dasgupta how measures can be implemented a service in or near a community, and they understand successfully in locations that lack one or the other, or all the need to preserve and maintain it. However, this three. Good governance is essential for policy measures won’t necessarily be high on the agenda of someone to be implemented successfully and Dasgupta says that who lives in a city on the other side of the world. The the Review must assume that governments are acting in Review reflects this, stating the: “Degradation of nature the best interests of their citizens. This is because it is a is not experienced in the same way by everyone.” scientific review, not based on politics. However, some Dasgupta extols the importance of education, and not only for school children: “It’s not just about 20 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

climate Anek citizenship; it’s about educated citizenship,” he be placed on nature, Dasgupta says: “The Review Suwannaphoom stresses. The Review suggests that: “Connecting with doesn’t set out to do this at all. Chapter One states | 123rf nature needs to be woven throughout our lives.” the true ‘value’ of nature – without it, we would be dead!” The inclusive worth of nature needs to be The fact that the biosphere has three pervasive accounted for. It is not simply the market price – what features: “Mobility, silence and invisibility,” means cutting down a tree costs in monetary terms for that the later consequences of destructive actions might example – it is about what will be gained by doing so, not be traceable or detected for years or decades. So and what will be lost in terms of ecosystem services. the education of why we must treat nature as an asset, with trade-offs as we use and replenish resources, must The last group is those who blame capitalism for start with children. Here, Dasgupta notes that he has our current situation and who express frustration at a received a lot of correspondence from teachers about capitalist approach to solving biodiversity loss. Dasgupta how they would like to incorporate nature studies considers this a knee-jerk reaction: “People seem to forget into their curricula, such as wildlife field trips and that the Soviet Union was not a capitalist nation, but taking lessons outside. Frustratingly, they have come the regime destroyed the country’s natural assets. The up against resistance from parents objecting to these idea is not about capitalism versus this, that and the learning opportunities. As an ex-science teacher, I other. It is about citizenship.” He emphasises that we can empathise with the teachers – despite the worth should pay for the resources we use, but the problem and enjoyment of including natural studies in lessons, is that so much of nature is freely available and her red tape surrounding risk assessments and potential resources are also heavily subsidised by governments. litigation cases are enough to put off senior management teams. Dasgupta agrees: “You need leadership and for The Economics of Biodiversity engaged scientists as well principals and head teachers to say: “No. This is part of as economists, so Dasgupta is confident that it addresses our curriculum.” Education about the state of the natural some of the issues that have been encountered by those world needs to be ingrained across the age spectrum. working on the economics of climate change. Putting a price on the cost of carbon has been so hotly debated I ask about the challenges of reworking thinking because the economists involved have not consulted with around economics and moving away from GDP as climate scientists. Dasgupta bridged that gap, pooling the exclusive measure of economic growth. Dasgupta resources with his team at the UK’s HM Treasury. explains that the Review does not intend for GDP to be abandoned – it is an incredibly useful tool for economists Inevitably, our discussion turned to Covid-19, a and decision-makers when assessing progress. However, manifestation of the effects of biodiversity loss and he says that post-war macroeconomic models simply increased human-animal interaction. I ask what effect do not take nature into account enough and he has the pandemic has had on the global community in its been working on this idea for more than two decades. approach to, and respect for, nature and biodiversity. Many economists have grappled with which metrics He reflects before saying: “Most intellectuals have should be used to measure the wealth of a nation, but good discipline, but a large body of influential thinkers now the professor is seeing a shift: “It was around eight have become sanguine that human ingenuity can years ago when I first started to see the change in my overcome nature’s constraints easily.” The pandemic colleagues’ mindsets. But now the idea of natural capital is an opportunity to take stock and to remember accounting is much more acceptable and governments that nature will bite back if she is interfered with too are moving in the right direction. We have a natural often. “There’s a hell of a lot about nature that we capital committee in the UK, but GDP still has – and don’t know, or will ever know,” says Dasgupta. should continue to have – an extremely important role.” The UK Treasury commissioned Dasgupta to create Intangible capital a comprehensive and independent study, but what the governments do with it is not in his remit. “The decisions Some aspects of wealth are less tangible and they make will be politically driven and will depend on harder to measure, such as social capital, or human constraints they face and feasibility issues,” he comments. capital like healthcare and education, and the The Treasury has asked Dasgupta to continue until same applies to natural capital. Dasgupta remains the end of this year, so his work now involves follow-up optimistic: “The shift is inevitable, because it is articles, lectures, symposia, interviews and updates, as intuitively obvious that we should be considering well as further research that will continue to disseminate stocks rather than flows when we talk about nature.” the Review’s message as far and wide as possible. The concept of valuing nature as a stock is gaining The full report is aimed at government officials and traction. However, there are those who say that putting policymakers, but the abridged version is designed for a monetary value on nature represents all that is the ‘concerned citizen’. The issues, explanations and problematic about the capitalist system. How would recommendations that are addressed should resonate with Dasgupta answer those critics? He replies that there are us all. Its clarity and frankness help the non-economists probably three groups of people who would find fault with among us to make sense of the economics of biodiversity and the Review: “There will be those who haven’t read it at to realise that, as it concludes: “The fault is not in economics; all. On the very morning of the launch back in February, it lies in the way we have chosen to practise it.” there were already blogs published challenging its stance. This is a 600-page document. It suggests to me that you Author don’t have to read the Review to have an opinion on it.” CLAIRE SANDERS is Assistant Editor at the Crisis To those who say that a monetary value should not Response Journal Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 21

Solar radiation modification: The world must learn more Solar radiation modification is one of the approaches proposed to help cool the planet, providing some breathing space while humanity brings its CO2 emissions under control. But, warns Janos Pasztor, this approach brings very real physical, social and geopolitical risks Unless the world acts much faster to emissions and removing large amounts of carbon end CO2 emissions, and to remove from the atmosphere, but – so the thinking goes CO2 already in the atmosphere, it may – it might help reduce risks and curb the worst soon no longer be possible to limit consequences of climate change, while the global warming to 1.5°C. And as the world makes the far-reaching changes Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) necessary to make human civilisation has made clear, breaching that boundary would make more sustainable and compatible with our planet an increasingly dangerous place to live. the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C. The World Meteorological Organisation warned Yet SRM approaches would bring recently that the world has already reached new risks of their own, and one in 1.2°C warming in 2020, and that we face: “An particular – that of stratospheric increasing occurrence and intensification of high- aerosol injection (SAI) – is impact events and severe losses and damages generating widespread concern. affecting people, societies and economies.” The basic idea of SAI is As temperatures rise, we can expect to see more to fly planes into the lower extreme weather stratosphere and patterns, The broad ideas are to release reflective heatwaves, aerosols, which droughts, forest reflect sunlight back would travel fires, increasingly around the severe storms into space or allow world, acting and sea level more heat to escape as a sunshield. rise. Crop yields Somewhat akin will fall, species the Earth’s atmosphere to what happens will lose their after a large climatic range, to cool the planet volcanic eruption, if it worked as economic output will decline and some suggest, diseases may increase. SAI could effectively and In short, the more temperatures rise, the quickly cool the global climate more disasters the world is likely to suffer. at a relatively low cost, and With global heating of 3-4°C, some scientists in a way that does not require warn that we could tip into an irreversible changes to the global economy. ‘hothouse earth’ scenario, no longer amenable But its risks are also manifold to civilisation as we currently know it. – including physical, social, and It’s against this backdrop that scientists are geopolitical – and these touch on some exploring the viability of an additional set of very difficult questions about who we approaches to limit temperature rise and reduce are and how we want to live, as well as climate risk, known as solar radiation modification deep-seated issues of justice and equity. (SRM), solar geoengineering, or just geoengineering. In addition, some physical risk may Proposals vary widely, but the broad ideas are to come from the particles themselves: some reflect sunlight back into space or allow more heat aerosols could reduce atmospheric ozone, to escape the Earth’s atmosphere to cool the planet. others could enhance it, and others could cause This would not replace the essential work of cutting harm as they drop out of the stratosphere. 22 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

climate There is also an issue of the potential for varying physical risks are, the geopolitical effects on different regions. Depending on the ones could be even greater. deployment targets and scale, while most of the world could be better off, some areas might see more climate Many fear that even debate and research on risks owing to changes in their specific weather. SAI could undermine political efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and would lead to Another issue is that regular spraying would be greater climate risks. This is the ‘moral hazard’ needed to maintain the effect, as aerosols fall into argument. Others say the prospect of SAI could the troposphere (forming acid rain or air pollution). scare people into cutting emissions faster. Under certain circumstances, should an SAI deployment suddenly be stopped, the consequent Were deployment to go ahead, great geopolitical sudden temperature increase – to a level back to what tensions could emerge if countries disagreed. Uncertainty around SAI is a risk in itself: tensions it would have been without the application of can emerge not only from definable effects, but SAI – could create a ‘termination from the mere suspicion that they exist. shock’, with potential large scale environmental, I will go into some more detail below, but what economic and these issues all point to is the need for governance, social effects. including broad-based learning, debate and discussion. And, as big as Outsize effect the Right now, however, there is no comprehensive Bruce Rolf | Alamy framework to govern SAI. Some instruments exist and have relevance, but they were not designed for this challenge. In the meantime, a rather small number of actors are currently having an outsize effect on the framing and development of a technique that is designed to affect the whole world. Unsurprisingly, this has led to some concern. An experiment that might have contributed to the understanding of how SAI might work was planned to take place this June in Sweden by the Keutsch Group at Harvard University. However, it was postponed indefinitely in late March after a group of civil security organisations (CSOs) decried a lack of consultation, called for broader governance and expressed concerns about the longer-term possibility of deployment. This was an example of limited governance having a significant effect. Even those most amenable to SAI research do not currently propose its deployment, owing to a lack of knowledge and appropriate governance – and see grave risks in the possibility of ungoverned deployment. For most, the climate crisis would have to get pretty bad even to consider SAI. The trouble is, our best assessments indicate that we are heading towards a pretty bad situation, and the world is far from achieving the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals. According to Climate Action Tracker, current pledges and targets would lead to warming of around 2.4°C, while current policies would lead to 2.9°C. However, given the range of estimates, this could be even higher. My view is that without much faster decarbonisation of the global economy, including starting efforts to decarbonise the atmosphere seriously – and I still fervently hope this happens – we may reach a point in the not-too-distant future when the observed effects and increasing risks of living with climate change may be seen to outweigh concerns about the consideration of SAI. Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 23

Dolphyn | 123rf We need to be prepared for this possibility, without examples to draw upon. That being understood, perhaps suggesting that the use of SAI has to be a given. That’s the most fundamental challenge is that SAI will likely why I think we need to learn more about it now, and have asymmetrical impacts in an unequal world. how to govern it, before events potentially spiral out While the global average temperature could of control. We also need to consider the governance be reduced, individual experiences will differ. requirements of a world that is unable to avail itself of SAI. SAI might improve the climate for some and So what does this mean for policymakers and deteriorate it for others. Some regions prefer a colder other stakeholders in practice? Faced with the rising temperature, others may prefer a warmer one. uncertainties and risks of climate change on the one hand, In a nutshell, there would be winners and losers – or and the uncertainties and risks of SAI on at least greater winners and lesser winners, the other, how do we go about making There may be a or the perception of such – which could plans and building governance? What lead to inequity and tensions at the heart mechanisms could help weigh up risks and of international decision-making. Of course, such inequity and chance that one orbenefits, and help if things go wrong? Could it ever be possible to reach a few countries (or tensions are already evident and consensus given the different circumstances other actors) may further anticipated in a world where faced by different countries? global temperatures exceed 1.5°C. Addressing these questions is decide to take matters So how should the relative why Carnegie Climate Governance risks be considered? Initiative (C2G) was created. We do into their own hands If, after a deployment, negative not have the answers – and it’s not our asymmetries occurred (or were perceived to job to provide them. Rather, our work have occurred) and harm or loss arose, the is to introduce these ideas to senior policymakers world would need to decide how to compensate those who around the world and ask them to start thinking lost out (if possible), by whom and under what jurisdiction. about the governance issues for themselves. Some of these asymmetries could be anticipated, Before I delve deeper into some of the toughest while others may emerge only after deployment. governance challenges, I would add one more important Who decides these things? Will it be a body like proviso: much of this is essentially conjecture – these the UNFCCC, or another mechanism? What are ideas about ideas, based on implicit assumptions if the world can’t reach agreement – whether (sometimes called ‘imaginaries’). We have no real world owing to lack of shared understanding, or an 24 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

climate appropriate forum to discuss it? What then? and debate. Putting that into place is not easy, In practice, there may be a chance that one especially for an imagined technology that doesn’t exist. This is why we need to start the process now. or a few countries (or other actors) may decide to take matters into their own hands. It is not C2G’s task to determine what form that process should take. That is for society to decide. Our Unilateral deployment would probably be beyond mission is to catalyse the creation of governance the physical and technical capability of many countries around SAI, one that is fully supportive of certain and states with limited power might be deterred by the principles, including the need to work within existing threat of sanctions or even of military intervention. international law, to take a risk management approach and to enable multiple sectors of society to engage, But more powerful states, or a coalition of smaller including the public and the most vulnerable. states and/or non-state actors (the so-called ‘Greenfinger’ scenario), may not be so easily deterred. Existential Does that require a comprehensive process, a new risk owing to global warming or the prospect of institution or a polycentric patchwork of instruments ‘saving the world’ could be a powerful motivator and measures? I’m not sure. Let’s talk about it. That for some – and may not be easily countered. is what I am asking of governments, international organisations and non-state actors around the world. In practice, if a large, powerful single state or group of states decided to deploy SAI alone, it might not In 2019 Switzerland brought a resolution to the be possible to stop them from going ahead. And this UN Environment Assembly to commission a study of would almost inevitably lead to problems, including climate-altering approaches. Many supported, some potential conflict. While SAI deployment could opposed, some didn’t know enough, and the resolution benefit the deployer, it might also cause real problems was eventually withdrawn. This was frustrating for for the climates of non-deploying countries, possibly many. But the good news was that the debate was affecting water resources or food production. a form of governance in itself, and the conversation led to engagement by many more countries. Consider also the reaction of those who might welcome some degree of global warming, for example countries Governance or regions that would benefit from ice-free Arctic transport, from the opening up of new agricultural In late March 2021, the influential US National opportunities or from greater access to resources. Academies of Science Engineering and Medicine issued a report calling on the US to “cautiously pursue” a Given how strongly countries could feel against $100-200 million solar geoengineering research SAI deployment, some may turn to countermeasures, programme over five years, in order to improve including potential military force. The legitimacy understanding of what options might be available of a military response against SAI is currently and how they might be governed. Other countries unclear, but it is conceivable that states could assert and institutions are also beginning to show interest. the principle of ecological sovereignty as a basis for a just war – especially if the SAI deployment was SRM is being addressed in the forthcoming IPCC perceived to be creating war-like levels of harm. And 6th Assessment Report and there are efforts to bring all this is aside from the concern that some states might a new resolution on the governance of emerging consider using SAI specifically as a weapon of war. climate altering approaches, including SRM, to the UN Environment Assembly in 2021. This scenario may be unlikely in practice – some experts assert that it would be too crude and C2G aims to catalyse an initial consideration of SRM – imprecise – but it remains an issue that many suitably framed – in the UN General Assembly (UNGA) stakeholders would like to see addressed. by 2023, which could provide indications on how the multilateral system would address its governance. We now It’s not just states that could create a security need to work out the framing most likely to attract support, threat. SAI infrastructure could become the target of and which could result in useful outcomes for next steps. terrorists, requiring security institutions to become involved. An added complication may be that military We might succeed in catalysing a UNGA assets could be used to deliver SAI, even if peacefully. consideration, but then again, we might not. In short, SAI could bring about some very However, the reality remains: new techniques are being serious security challenges – bearing in mind, considered, and these could lead to huge risks if deployed, as always, that unfettered climate change is but they might also prevent worse risks – and the world already leading to security challenges. has no real way of working out what to do. And all of this in the absence of real transformative action by the Given the potential global impacts of SAI, any world that would limit temperature increase to 1.5°C. decision to deploy, even if taken collectively, might be contested and create a whole set of novel and potentially I don’t know the answers – neither does the world – but dangerous geopolitical problems. Without functioning I am convinced that this is a conversation we cannot afford and adequate systems of governance in place, how to delay any longer. the global community prepares for taking a decision on whether or not to use SAI, and the implications Author of such a decision either way, are unknown. JANOS PASZTOR is the Executive Director of the How might the world go about building a multilateral system of governance of SAI? To my mind, the Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative (C2G) and a answer is that this will be difficult, but essential. former UN Assistant Secretary-General for Climate Governance is about more than governments. Rules and regulations are part of it, but just as Change. The author thanks Mark Turner, Paul important is a broad societal process of learning Rouse and Kai-Uwe Barani Schmidt for their contributions to this article Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 25

Capitalising on nature- based solutions Haseeb Md Irfanullah explores the history and growing popularity of the ecosystem-based concept as a means of mitigating the damaging effects of climate change and preventing biodiversity loss A s a biologist from climate-vulnerable ecosystem, it may also change the existing ecosystem Tanguar Haor, Bangladesh, I have been fascinated by the services. The NbS standard suggests that understanding Sunamganj, growing global attention that nature-based such trade-offs is an important aspect of an effective Bangladesh. An solutions (NbS) have been receiving lately. NbS. It takes time to produce the envisaged benefits. internationally Before we explore the newfound fame of Ecosystem functions also act differently over time as important NbS, it is worth defining the concept. In 2016, the experts they interact with climate and other socio-ecological wetland known of the International Union for Conservation of Nature systems. It is therefore important that the management for its aquatic (IUCN) formalised NbS with case studies from around the of an NbS would adapt to such changes. Scaling biodiversity, world. NbS are the actions we take to protect our diverse up and mainstreaming of a successful NbS are also especially ecosystems, sustainably manage their resources, restore important criteria, since societal challenges continue migratory them if they are degraded by natural or human causes to cause suffering in different parts of the world. birds, fish and and even create new ones where needed. The concept freshwater of NbS brings together a wide range of ecosystem-based The year 2019 was a milestone for the ecosystem-based swamps approaches, such as ecological restoration, ecosystem- concept, especially in the fight against climate change. Haseeb Irfanullah based adaptation, green infrastructure, integrated coastal The draft Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework of zone management and protected area management. the UN Convention on Biological Diversity included elements of NbS to guide biodiversity conservation Once an NbS is implemented effectively over the next 30 years. In September, the UN Climate and adaptively, two types of benefits are seen Action Summit held a session on NbS. Around the simultaneously: increased human wellbeing and same time, the Global Commission on Adaptation improved biodiversity. This dual advantage makes published its first flagship report where NbS was NbS different from pure community development identified as one of the eight action tracks to pursue. initiatives and hard core conservation projects, which can deliver on one of the benefits, but not both. Major discussion point Unlike its engineered counterparts, an NbS intervention The year 2020 started positively – the UK prepared often provides multiple gains. A healthy patch of to lead the world to the 26th Conference of Parties mangroves not only protects human lives and assets from (COP26) on climate change in Glasgow, in November. coastal flooding, but also provides carbon sequestration, As the COP president, the UK included NbS as a biodiversity, livelihoods and cultural benefits. Studies core agenda item, along with adaptation, climate show that NbS such as wetland protection are more finance and renewable energy. Although COP26 was effective than grey solutions, such as check dams, for postponed until November 2021, NbS remains a major managing freshwater flooding. Moreover, NbS protecting discussion point, as confirmed by US President Joe mangroves and salt marshes were found to be up to five Biden’s Leaders Summit on Climate held this April. times cheaper than coastal engineered interventions under certain water depth and wave conditions. As envisaged in the Paris Agreement in 2015, nations Nevertheless, it is sometimes necessary to consider a are supposed to reduce carbon emissions to keep global combination of green and grey options, especially temperature rise below 2°C and if possible, below where NbS alone may not give enough protection to 1.5°C this century. While decarbonising our economy natural calamities worsened by climate change. by adopting zero-carbon solutions is the main way to achieve that goal, NbS can also help in climate change Last year, IUCN proposed the first ever standard mitigation. Recent studies suggested that NbS such as for NbS. Made up of eight criteria and 28 indicators, creating and restoring forests and other ecosystems can the Global Standard for NbS highlights the importance remove a significant amount of carbon dioxide from of scale when designing an NbS to address a the atmosphere by 2030 and keep the world cooler. societal challenge, net biodiversity gains from its implementation and its economic feasibility. It A review of 168 Nationally Determined Contributions also identifies people’s participation in planning to (NDC) documents showed that most of the 77 low and implementation phases as an integral part of a true NbS. lower middle-income countries included NbS not only as a means of adaptation – adjusting to long-term impacts While an NbS offers new or better benefits from an of climate change – but also of mitigation, in terms of 26 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

climate removing carbon from the atmosphere. However, such displace vulnerable people from their homes. This, in adoption of NbS is still low among developed nations. turn, creates pressure on towns and cities and the It is a good example of the least-developed countries’ longstanding inclination towards NbS. Bangladesh has insecurity of incoming migrants is perpetuated. NbS been creating coastal green belt since 1966 to protect residents from cyclones and storm surges. Farmers on can improve climate security in vulnerable locations the central coast have traditionally practised floating agriculture, growing crops and seedlings on rafts made of by expanding natural resource bases and reducing densely-packed water hyacinth plants. Over the last two decades, this indigenous technology has been rebranded disaster and conflict risks. NbS can also improve the as an adaptation option and scaled up in other wetlands. living conditions in informal urban settlements, often Since the late 1990s, Bangladesh has implemented initiatives involving local communities to protect built on disaster-prone areas, and offer livelihood and manage wetlands and forests sustainably. The country’s long experience of participatory natural opportunities for displaced populations. resource governance has recently been formalised through several legal instruments. Bangladesh’s Second, NbS should be made a core funding principle national strategies and planning documents include: Five-yearly national development plans; the ten-year- of climate finance, whether it is a national fund, such long Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan; and the 80-year-long Bangladesh Delta Plan as the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund worth 2100. The country has also adopted ecosystem-based approaches in these documents with the aim of becoming $447 million, the international multi-billion dollar Green a ‘resilient delta nation’ in the coming decades. Climate Fund, or through corporate climate funding. It is exciting to see NbS being recognised and valued in studies, dialogue and strategies on climate This is crucial for piloting, scaling up and mainstreaming change. But talking about NbS and making pledges in Glasgow this November won’t change anything NbS. In all cases, investment should comply with unless words are transformed into action. Seeing NbS through three interconnected lenses – security, NbS standards and guidelines and be driven by the finance and justice – may help us to act. evidence on effectiveness and impact of NbS to avoid First, NbS must be linked with climate security. Climate-induced water, food and livelihood insecurities any miscommunication, misuse and misinterpretation. Third, in any NbS interventions, the rights of local and indigenous peoples should be recognised and it is they who should be in the driving seat. Concerned local communities should understand and take part in designing an NbS intervention, be aware of the Author potential associated social, economic DR HASEEB MD and environmental costs and IRFANULLAH is an benefits, and be able to enjoy them. independent consultant from NbS can help to flatten the curves Bangladesh who works on of climate crisis and biodiversity environment, climate change and loss as our journey to sustainable research systems. He spoke on Water development continues. We need to Crises and Resilience at the IDME make the most of them. conference this May Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 27

Climate change: Time to prepare Alice C Hill and Madeline Babin say that we have little or no experience of the ferocity of the events that climate change is likely to spawn and that this unfamiliarity risks leaving us deeply unprepared. However, communities can make investments now to improve future outcomes – but we must act now H umans have little or no experience with the ferocity his right hand and swore to tell the truth. A soft-spoken of the events that climate change will likely spawn. man, Hansen had come to the US Capitol to testify on That unfamiliarity risks leaving us deeply unprepared. the reality of human-caused global warming before the But the signs are clear. Communities can make Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. investments now to improve future outcomes. Taking his seat at the long table facing the Senators, he For over three decades, the world has been told them he had concluded with 99 per cent certainty on notice that climate change will bring greater that the year’s record temperatures were not the result of destructive forces that wreak havoc. It’s time to stop a natural fluctuation in the climate. Rather, the growing waffling and, instead, act now on preparedness. concentration of pollutants such as carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere resulting from human On a sweltering day in June 1988 in Washington, DC, activity – in other words, the ‘greenhouse effect’ – was a government scientist with the US National Aeronautics to blame. Seven years earlier, in the journal Science, and Space Administration (NASA), Dr Jim Hansen, raised 28 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

climate Hansen had predicted that the burning of fossil fuels however, comes at a tremendous cost. It is time to It is time to stop could drive global average temperatures to increase by address the growing risks proactively and that means waffling and act 2.5°C. In a statement to reporters following the second investing in preparedness to ensure a safer future. on preparedness of what would become several congressional testimonies, he warned: “It’s time to stop waffling... the greenhouse Early 2021 gave the United States a vivid example of Wetzkaz | 123rf effect is here and is affecting our climate now.” how much the failure to prepare could cost. In February, a severe winter storm propelled the entire state of Texas Two decades after Hansen’s testimony, in the face – the largest state in the continental United States – into of global inaction to address climate change, the a state of emergency. The culprit? Extreme cold. National Academy of Sciences undertook its own study designed to aid national security experts in assessing Repeated warning signs the security threats to the United States posed by climate change. The results of the study published in Texas is no stranger to bouts of freezing weather. Over 120 2012 warned that it was prudent to: “Expect climate years ago, Texas experienced record cold as temperatures surprises in the coming decades, including unexpected plunged to 23 degrees below zero Fahrenheit in February and potentially disruptive single events… and for 1899. Some 30 years later, in 1933, frigid temperatures them to become progressively more serious and more tied this all-time record. In 1989, blistering cold hit frequent thereafter, most likely at an accelerating rate.” again forcing the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (Ercot), the energy grid operator for over 90 per cent of All these predictions have proven true, yet the the state, to resort to rolling blackouts. In the wake of United States continues to be set back on its heels that disaster, the Public Utility Commission of Texas when it comes to climatic events. Failing to prepare, (PUC) recommended that all utilities: “Incorporate the Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 29

lessons learned during December of 1989 into the design of new One facility in Texas emitted 262,522 pounds of methane over facilities,” and to: “Correct defective freeze protection equipment just an hour-and-a-half owing to: “Weather related system prior to the onset of cold weather.” Texans failed to take heed. failures.” Estimates of losses from the storm ran as high as $130 billion, making it the costliest weather event in state history. Another freeze settled over the state in 2011. That year, as temperatures plummeted amid a bitter wind, the state’s power The lesson of Texas’s experience is that the failure to generators once again began to fail. Natural gas wells froze prepare for known risks, much less those heightened while coal plants faltered. Electrical companies turned to their by climate change, carries heavy costs. Communities reserve units to compensate for the surging power needs, and can no longer afford to postpone preparedness. once diminished, Ercot again ordered rolling blackouts. More than three million Ercot customers were left without power The 2021 freeze illustrates that if essential infrastructure fails when over a quarter of the state’s reserve power capacity failed during extreme cold, those failures cause cascading damage that in the freezing weather. After the event, the Federal Energy fractures other vital systems. Most modern systems, including Regulatory Commission and the North American Electric communication networks, financial systems and transportation Reliability Corporation issued a report advising the state networks, are wholly dependent on electricity to function. to require operators to invest in additional ‘winterising’ of Safeguarding these sectors requires investing heavily in preparing energy infrastructure to withstand future severe weather. A study published in 2012 warned it was prudent to: But it’s not just cold that will damage critical systems, so too “Expect climate surprises in will other climate-fuelled extremes, including flooding and the coming decades, including extreme heat. In 2012, when Superstorm Sandy drove a nearly unexpected and potentially 14-foot storm surge over lower Manhattan’s 12-foot flood barriers, disruptive single events... causing an electrical substation to explode, the city that never and for them to become sleeps was plunged into darkness. When the electricity failed, progressively more serious...” the transportation, water treatment and health sectors quickly collapsed. New Yorkers later learned that city planners had the energy infrastructure. Again, the state of Texas failed to not accounted for the almost foot of sea-level rise the city had heed the warning to protect itself against future extremes. experienced since 1900 when it erected its flood barriers, allowing the swell of water to overwhelm the city’s defences with ease. The Texas cold streak in February 2021 brought over a week of bitter conditions with temperatures dropping to -2 degrees Likewise, new climate-driven heat extremes also threaten to Fahrenheit (-19°C) in some areas. This cold spell also bore the lead to widespread damage. A 2021 study published in the journal telltale signs of climate change. The polar vortex – the ring of Environmental Science & Technology found that the combination winds circling around the North Pole – had weakened, causing cold of blackouts caused by major grid failures and extreme heat: air to shoot out from the Arctic. Scientists have found evidence that “May be the deadliest climate-related event” imaginable. The as climate change causes temperatures to rise in the Arctic, it has researchers determined that the potential for critical infrastructure the ability to alter the polar vortex, which increases the likelihood failures during extreme weather is increasing, with the frequency that frigid Arctic air will escape to shock other parts of the planet. of widespread blackouts rising over 60 per cent in the past five years. When these major grid failures occur at the same time The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as extreme heat, between 68 and 100 per cent of the affected (NOAA) recorded that as the polar vortex spewed the coldest population enters high risk of heat stroke or heat exhaustion. air since 1989 across the central United States in February 2021, more than 60 all-time daily cold minimum temperature The collision of new climate extremes with existing infrastructure records were broken across the country in just six days. is a recipe for disaster. The reality of a changing climate is that future weather events will continue to pummel critical systems, With cold air and freezing wind gripping the state, the bringing extremes that surpass the historical conditions for which electrical grid failed. Without power, nearly 4.5 million residents they were designed. As extreme weather events become more plunged into prolonged darkness. Across the state, people frequent and more intense, catastrophic system failures become went without heat in below freezing temperatures for several more likely. Until communities build resilience to the mounting risk, days. Over 14.6 million residents were left without safe water climate impacts will continue to overwhelm vital infrastructure, to drink when the cold temperatures caused pipes to freeze inflict more damage and result in more lives and livelihoods lost. and then burst. And for those residents with water, the chronic power outages meant that thousands lacked the electricity So where should communities begin their needed to boil it and render it safe for drinking. Nearly 200 work to ensure better outcomes? people died in the freezing conditions, some in their beds. At least 100 of these fatalities resulted from hypothermia. First, they should incorporate considerations of climate change in all aspects of decision-making concerning Officials lamented how most of these deaths were preventable infrastructure – from design and construction to operation and: “Attributable to the fact that Texas simply could not ensure and maintenance. This will reduce the number of ‘surprises’. that electricity would stay on during a severe winter weather event.” In the absence of electricity, oil refineries and petrochemical Next, they should invest in reducing damage. That’s what companies released nearly four million pounds of extra pollutants. New England did after its clash with a polar vortex that fuelled a spate of extreme cold in 2014. After the storm, grid operators vowed not to let another polar vortex weaken the grid. The New England grid subsequently winterised its power systems and increased fuel availability to compensate during periods of extremely low temperatures. Operators implemented new winterisation requirements, including basic measures such as increasing insulation. The grid operators also created a winter reliability programme, which works to increase fuel reserves and bolster demand response capacity during times of extreme weather. This means that should 30 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

plants experience a surge in outages during a storm, existing climate reserves are sufficient to preserve residents’ lights and heat. warned the citizens of Philadelphia against the dangers of fire with Japan has also worked to prepare vital infrastructure systems the adage: “An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” and basic services to ensure citizens have reliable power in a future of climate-fuelled extremes. The 2011 earthquake That advice holds true today. Nations and communities must and subsequent tsunami spurred an energy revolution in take heed and invest in protection against worsening extremes. the country, with the Japanese government establishing the Surprises, as the National Academy of Sciences has warned, National Resilience Programme to increase preparedness. will keep occurring, but it’s time to plan to be surprised. For the Japanese city of Higashi Matsushima, which In other words, it is now time to imagine the unprecedented suffered widespread flooding and loss of life in the wake of the threats that climate change will bring – bigger storms, greater earthquake, this meant rebuilding its energy infrastructure temperature extremes, larger wildfires, more extreme precipitation, utilising decentralised renewable power and microgrids. melting permafrost and sea-level rise – and prepare for the Microgrids, which are interconnected distributed energy resources unfamiliar and unforeseen. grouped into single, controllable entities, have the capacity to act independently, or as part of the larger grid system. References This built-in adaptability is not only useful during grid outages, ■ Shabecoff P (1988): Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate, New but also in facilitating the integration of renewable energy. York Times; Using microgrids to supply power means that if the main grid ■ National Research Council (2013): Climate and Social Stress: Implications for experiences a failure, the city’s microgrid can supply power to all Security Analysis; its residents for several hours, preventing widespread blackouts. ■ Dexheimer E (2011): February power blackouts across Texas echoed 1989 The system also has the alternative capacity to divert power away failures, state report shows, Austin American-Statesman; from residential buildings to hospitals and the community hall ■ McLaughlin T and Kelly S (2021): Why a predictable cold snap crippled the for multiple days in the event of a disaster. Higashi Matsushima Texas power grid, Reuters; is now known as a ‘smart disaster prevention eco town’. ■ Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and North American Electric Reliability Corporation (2011): Report on Outages and Curtailments During the Dozens of cities have followed suit, turning to the country’s Southwest Cold Weather Event of February, 1-5, 2011; National Resilience Programme to fund investment in increasing ■ United Nations (2021): Polar vortex responsible for Texas deep freeze, warm the self-sufficiency and reliability of their energy systems. Arctic temperatures, UN News; ■ NOAA (2021): Assessing the US Climate in February 2021; Adoption and enforcement of strong building codes can ■ Francis J & Vavrus S (2015): Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to also reduce damage. A 2020 study by the National Institute of rapid Arctic warming, Environmental Research Letters; Building Sciences found that adopting modern model building ■ Findell E (2021): Full Death Toll From Texas Storm Could Take Months to codes saves $11 for every $1 spent to fortify against earthquake, Determine, The Wall Street Journal; flood and wind, with a $4 to $1 ratio for wildfires. Yet in the ■ Findell E and Thomas K (2021): Texas Cities Under Boil-Water Orders, The United States, nearly two-thirds of jurisdictions have failed to Wall Street Journal; put modern codes in place that provide minimum protection. ■ Ament J and Brisbin S (2021): Nearly 200 People Died In February’s Winter Storm, Double The State’s Initial Estimate, Texas Standard; Early warnings ■ Uteuova A (2021): Texas facilities released 3.5m pounds of extra pollutants during winter storm, The Guardian; Another area ripe for investment is that of early warnings and ■ O’Donnell P (2021): The Texas winter freeze’s economic toll climbs to $130 emergency alerts, which save lives by allowing people to act in billion, The Dallas Morning News; advance of disaster. The February freeze caught Texans off guard ■ Stone Jr B, Mallen E, Rajput M, Gronlund C J, Broadbent A M, Krayenhoff E and unprepared. In the days before the blackouts, Ercot failed to S, Augenbroe G, O’Neill M, and Georgescu M (2021): Compound Climate and issue any warnings to residents about potential widespread outages. Infrastructure Events: How Electrical Grid Failure Alters Heat Wave Risk, As a result, citizens lacked the opportunity to gather the necessary Environmental Science & Technology; supplies, chart evacuation routes, or plan for alternative supplies ■ Moore J (2018): Cold Temps Prove Value of Electricity Grid Markets, of energy to ensure that their oxygen machines and space heaters Planning, Natural Resources Defense Council; could remain active. Then, during the freeze, the state of Texas ■ (2018): The Resilience Programme: Changing Japan’s grid, Power was unable to deliver crucial information to its citizens. At one Technology; point, in the midst of the crisis, Governor Greg Abbott instructed ■ Sheldrick A and Tsukimori O (2017): Quiet energy revolution under way in his constituents to refer to Google to figure out where to go and Japan as dozens of towns go off the grid, Reuters; how to get access to warming centres in the freezing conditions. An ■ FEMA (2020): Building Codes Save: A Nationwide Study & Why Should early warning system might have saved lives and averted damage. Strong Building Codes Matter to You?; ■ Wellenstein A, Escobar M, Sanahuja H, and Martínez Gómez C (2021): Can a Early and accurate alerts are vital for ensuring communities have country prepare for the unforeseen? World Bank Blogs. enough time to prepare. In 2020, Nicaragua demonstrated the value of early warning in giving residents time to act before catastrophe Authors strikes. In November of that year, two category 4 hurricanes, Eta and Iota, rammed the country within the span of two weeks. ALICE HILL is the David M. Rubenstein senior fellow for After a hurricane struck in 2007, the country had decided to energy and the environment at the Council on Foreign prepare for ‘the unforeseen’, increasing the budget for its National System for Disaster Prevention, Mitigation, and Assistance by $3.5 Relations and former special assistant to President Barack million and bolstering national early warning capabilities. Three days before the first storms hit in 2020, Nicaragua issued alerts to Obama and senior director for resilience policy on the initiate evacuation procedures and pre-position emergency supplies, ultimately leading to six times fewer fatalities than the 2007 disaster. National Security Council staff. She is a Member of the CRJ Disasters have always posed challenges for communities. In 1736, Advisory Panel; Benjamin Franklin, the great American scientist and philosopher, MADELINE BABIN is a research associate, climate change policy, at the Council on Foreign Relations Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 31

India’s second wave of Covid-19 In his previous article in the CRJ, Peter Patel brought together a review of the challenges facing the world’s largest democracy in managing the Covid-19 pandemic. Here, he provides an update on the situation in India “T his pandemic has brought home the reality of an plan for mitigation and risk reduction between November absence of disaster medicine planning and capacity 2020 and February 2021. It could have been managed building, vastly inadequate affordable heath provision, better had politics not got in the way; and thousands poor mitigation and risk reduction planning, and of lives could have been saved if politicians had not reactive policies, leading to widespread poverty prematurely declared that they had defeated the virus. and health inequalities for millions in this country.” This was my concluding statement in CRJ 15:4. The second wave has crippled the health system in parts of India and exposed major weaknesses in the Five months down the line, nothing has changed. India management of the pandemic, leading to large numbers is experiencing one of the biggest catastrophes from the of avoidable deaths. It has highlighted serious gaps in second wave of Covid-19. The impact could have been planning and implementation, leading to the collapse reduced significantly had the government taken time to of the healthcare system in parts of the country. 32 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

Covid-19 Table 1: Increase in ventilators, oxygen supported and ICU beds India Today, May 3 – Parliamentary documents Oxygen supported beds April 21, 2020 September 22, 2020 % ICU Beds 62,458 247,972 297 Ventilators 27,360 66,638 143 13,158 33,020 152 The Kumbh Mela India’s first wave started in early June 2020 (seven April 2021, it appears that they believed India festival was day average of 11,023 cases) peaking around September had won the fight against Covid-19. termed a super- 16, (seven day average of 93,199 cases). By the end of spreader event, December, the number of daily cases had dropped to a From the first announcement of national lockdown in with returnees seven day average of 20,144. From June 1 to December March 2020, central and the state governments swung increasing 30, 2020, India saw 10,095,664 cases, while the cases into action, aiming to correct an imbalance in the infection across all in this country of 1.3 billion people dropped to a daily availability of hospital beds and ventilators. State health parts of India average of 12,300 in January and February 2021. departments, armed forces, railways and – to a limited Government politicians started to declare victory. extent – small and large private providers were involved. Karma Sonam | ■ January 16, 2021: On the launch of India’s Covid-19 Hospitals and emergency care centres were organised in AP | Shutterstock vaccination programme, Prime Minister Narendra auditoriums, sports centres, stadia and in railway coaches. Modi said: “India has set examples for the world at different stages in its fight against the pandemic. The first wave peaked with 97,860 daily cases The entire world is taking note of the manner in recorded on September 16. There was a significant which India has fought against this pandemic.” increase in the availability of ICU beds, isolation beds, ■ January 18, 2021: At the World Economic Forum oxygen supported beds and ventilators across most in Davos, PM Modi said: “India today is among the states between April and September 2020 (Table 1). nations that have been the most successful in saving lives and where the number of cases is rapidly declining. On September 23, 2020, Minister of State Sri Ashwini The country has also managed to effectively contain Kumar Choubey said, in a reply to question raised in the coronavirus, saving the world and mankind from the Lok Sabha (lower house): “States/union territories a huge calamity.” He continued: “India is saving (UTs) are being provided required technical and financial the lives of people in many other countries of the assistance for managing the Covid-19 public health world by sending Covid vaccines and developing challenge… the primary responsibility of strengthening of the necessary infrastructure for the vaccination. healthcare system lies with respective state governments.” Responsibility was clearly put on the states/UTs. “In this battle, everyone in India performed their duties with patience and turned the fight against corona Guards down into a people’s movement. Today, India is among those countries which have succeeded in saving the lives In a November 2020 parliamentary report, health of the maximum number of its citizens,” he noted. experts and a Parliamentary Committee had sounded ■ January 30, 2021: Dr Harsh Vardhan, Union Minister an early warning of the impending second wave, of Health, addressed the BAPIO Wales Conference: calling for health infrastructure to be strengthened “Covid-19 pandemic broke out in December 2019 and and highlighting the need for hospital beds, ventilators spread around the world. With the ‘whole of government’ and medical oxygen. They also recommended and ‘whole of society’ approach, we were able to fight price controls for oxygen and essential drugs. the pandemic much better than other countries.” ■ February 8, 2021: In a motion of thanks to the Most beds and ventilators were still in the President’s address in the Rajya Sabha, PM Modi private sector. Public-private partnerships never said: “The world is proud that India has really took off and there were no comprehensive plans played a very important role in saving mankind. to use the vast capacity of the private sector. “The kudos of winning this battle does not go As the numbers of new cases declined from a peak to any government, nor does it go to a person, in September, both state governments and the private but it goes to India… This country has done sector started letting their guard down. An analysis it. The poorest of the poor have done it.” of government data published in India Today on May ■ March 7, 2021: Addressing a gathering of doctors 3, demonstrated that the number of oxygen-supported in Delhi, Dr Vardhan declared: “We are in the beds, ICU beds and ventilators showed a significant endgame of the Covid-19 pandemic in India. decrease ( -34, -46 and -28 per cent respectively) between September 2020 and January 2021. “Similarly, India cannot be safe from Covid-19 if the rest of the world continues to be unsafe, which is why Between December 2020 and February 2021 a few it is essential to curb Covid-19 vaccine nationalism.” months of calm led to people relaxing their guard. Covid-19 appropriate behaviours were forgotten, masks From the actions and words of senior politicians discarded and social mixing carried on unabated. in central government between January to Government shifted its focus to the upcoming State elections and politicians from all other parties also ignored warnings of an impending second wave and engaged in mass political rallies. Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 33

Funeral pyres of Daily Health Ministry press statements were reporting days before the festival, the Chief Covid-19 victims rising cases from March 2021. The Health Ministry Minister of the State, Trivendra at an improvised reported daily new case increases in Maharashtra, Kerala, Singh Rawat, was fired for wanting crematorium in Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat, accounting for 80 to 87 to restrict access to the festival. The New Delhi per cent of new cases – 1,036,545 – in that month alone. new Chief Minister Tirath Singh Rawat was quoted as saying that: Abhishek | UPI | In addition to massive political rallies, religious “Nobody will be stopped,” and Shutterstock festivals such as Kumbh Mela in Haridwar were allowed that a negative Covid test was not to continue as the second wave gathered pace. Just necessary. More than nine million people attended the festival. By the end of April, 6,000 devotees had tested positive and the Kumbh Mela was termed a super-spreader event, with festival returnees increasing infection across all parts of India. According to a report in the New Indian Express, in the last seven days of April, Uttarakhand – whose population makes up 0.8 per cent of India – accounted for 2.73 per cent of Covid-19 deaths. By April, the pandemic was spreading rapidly. The period from April 1 to May 5 saw 8,768,987 new cases added, affecting Maharashtra, Delhi (UT), Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, UP and others. There was pressure on PM Modi not to announce a full lockdown and to keep the economy running. He called the election: “The festival of democracy,” and expressed belief that the pandemic could be managed by micro-lockdowns. According to NDTV, the Madras High Court in Tamil Nadu had said to the Election Commission: “Your institution is singularly responsible for the second wave of Covid-19. Your officers should be booked on murder charges probably.” In early May, the External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar justified the elections by saying: “We are a democratic country, you don’t stop an election in a country like India,” adding that Covid-19 was a shared problem and a global crisis. Other major contributing factors to the second wave were two new variants of Covid-19 – the Alpha (B 1.1.7) and Delta double mutant (B 1.617.2) – which were identified as the main variants responsible for the rapid spread. The new variants were more infectious, infected much younger populations (25-50 age group) and were spreading among middle and high income groups. As the pandemic gathered pace, it spread to the districts and villages of all major states. The Covid-19 tsunami had hit India. On April 4, 2021, the daily number of new cases was 103,588, significantly higher than the 94,000 recorded at the peak of the first wave in September 2020. By April 34 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

Covid-19 15, the number of daily new cases had doubled to dirty tubing and non-sterile water for humidification. 217,353. On May 6, it reached a peak of 414,188, having The treatment of choice is a liposomal Amphotericin quadrupled in 21 days and setting a new world record. B injection, which can last for four to six weeks at an There were no beds, no oxygen or ICU beds available estimated cost of around £5,000 to £8,000.00. Private in any major cities. People were dying outside hospitals, hospitals in Delhi have been quoting £10,000 to in ambulances, in rickshaws, cars and even in the £15,000, which is unaffordable for most but, in spite backs of mini vans and trucks. Ahmedabad saw over of the cost, the shortage has created a black-market 100 ambulances queuing up outside the government for the drug. Around 29,250 vials of Amphotericin B hospital. Hospitals told families there was no oxygen have been distributed across all states, based on 11,717 available; they should get their own oxygen and treat patients on the record with confirmed diagnoses. their loved ones at home. There was a massive shortage of oxygen cylinders – both empty and full. Hundreds of Although five new manufacturers were given licence people queued every day outside oxygen filling stations to produce the drug, a shortage of raw materials and a black market emerged for medical and industrial has created a problem. A Delhi High Court, headed oxygen and empty oxygen cylinders. Unscrupulous by Judge Vipin Sanghi, intervened and, on May traders sold empty repainted industrial cylinders as 25, asked central government to produce a report medical oxygen cylinders at exorbitant prices. on availability and production of the drug. People were – and still are – desperate to save There was already a vast black market for other members of their family and willing to pay the asking drugs, with Remdesivir being sold at £250 to £500 price, while scammers are ripping people off by taking per injection. Fake drugs were in circulation and their money for cylinders they do not have. Demand for scammers abounded amid confusion over treatment oxygen concentrators increased tremendously and the protocols and state to state variations of drugs price shot up by three times above normal. Many are guidelines. Many doctors created their own protocols selling home oxygen concentrators, which are not fit for for treatment and were using discredited drugs. Covid-19 patients, at extortionate prices. People have started stocking up on oxygen cylinders and concentrators A massive discrepancy in the recording of deaths was in case they need them, creating a market shortage. highlighted by the media every day in major parts of the country. In UP and Bihar, hundreds of dead bodies In Delhi and Karnataka, hospitals went to the courts were discovered along the banks of the river Ganges. in early May, seeking to order central government to supply oxygen. In New Delhi, the Supreme Court The vaccination programme was faltering. Shortages also ordered the officers of central government to were evident and there was no coherent vaccination submit a plan for oxygen supply to Delhi hospitals. policy. Many major vaccination centres closed. Adar Justices Vipin Singhi and Rekha Palli, hearing the Poonawala, CEO of the Serum Institute, India’s biggest petitions by a group of hospitals in Delhi said: “You vaccine manufacturer, had to leave the country to escape can put your head in the sand like an ostrich, we will threats and aggression from political leaders who wanted not. We are not going to take no for an answer.” him to supply vaccines to them directly and immediately. Villages reported no Covid-19 testing or medical The Indian Government declared a major crisis and support, adding that their nearest hospitals had neither asked for international help. The UK, US, Germany beds nor oxygen-supported beds. Primary care centres and other countries stepped in immediately, sending were closed. People reported that many were dying urgent medical aid. Massive numbers of oxygen plants, without treatment and were either cremated or buried concentrators and cylinders, along with ventilators, without Covid-19 like illnesses being recorded. medicines, mobile hospitals and testing kits were flown in. The public and NGOs also stepped up, Black fungus epidemic raising financial donations to support the country. To make matters worse, a black fungus (mucormycosis) PM Modi mobilised the armed forces and army epidemic has emerged, with over 11,117 cases reported medical services to help with the crisis. It is reported in most states (May 26). The illness is caused by a that it took seven days to create a ‘streamlined mucor, which is present in soil, compost and air. The distribution mechanism’ to distribute supplies to various infection causes discolouration or blackening over the states. The country is struggling with distribution nose, affecting sinuses or lungs and affecting the skin logistics amid millions of tons of aid arriving from after an injury. If not treated, it has a mortality rate of around the world. Dedicated relief flights from the 20 to 50 per cent. Depending on where it is growing, UK, US, EU states, Taiwan, Turkey, UAE, Israel, symptoms of facial swelling, skin ulcers, black lesions in Uzbekistan, Russia and several other countries the mouth and fever are common. The disease usually arrived in India from late April to early May. starts with skin infections around the forehead, nose and cheekbones and spreads to the eyes, teeth and lungs and International aid effort continues, but many donors do can reach the brain. Besides necrosis of the area around not know where and how their donations will be used. the nose, chest pain, breathing difficulties and blurred or double vision are common. The disease has been Unfortunately, my review here is not complete owing found mainly in Covid-19 patients with excessive steroid to lack of space. I will end by saying that perhaps Indian usage, uncontrolled diabetes with high sugar levels and politicians will learn lessons from this second wave compromised immune systems. Doctors have also linked tsunami and prepare for the anticipated third wave in time it to an absence of infection control in hospitals, including to save lives and the economy. the use of industrial oxygen with unclean cylinders, Author PETER PATEL Founder and International Director of the Faculty of Disaster Medicine – India & Nepal, and a Member of the CRJ’s Advisory Panel Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 35

Resilience in tourism through a safe corridor As Covid-19 cases surge and new variants emerge, Turkey and other countries have reintroduced travel restrictions, including mandatory testing, quarantines and domestic lockdowns. I Hakan Yilmaz explores the current options for restarting international travel I nternational tourism recorded an unprecedented 73 again from the same date. A traffic light system was per cent decline in 2020; Europe and Africa both saw introduced, with countries classed as green, amber Vaccination of the a fall of 85 per cent in arrivals and the Middle East or red; leisure travel to countries on the amber or red entire tourism staff recorded a drop of 84 per cent. The World Tourism lists is not advised. Considering key factors such as the in Turkey adds Organisation (UNWTO) expects international percentage of population vaccinated, rate of infection, an extra layer of tourist arrivals to be down by 85 per cent in the first the prevalence of variants of concern and Turkey’s resilience to the quarter of 2021, compared with the same period access to reliable scientific data and genomic sequencing, industry of 2019, representing a loss of around 260 million Turkey has fallen into the red list. However, there international arrivals compared to pre-pandemic levels. are more factors to consider that may render a better tga.gov.tr view of the health and safety level of Turkey’s tourism Looking ahead for 2021, UNWTO prepared two industry, all decreasing the risk and increasing the scenarios. The first pointed to a rebound in July, with a resilience level of the whole industry from end to end. 66 per cent increase in international arrivals compared with the historic lows of 2020, with arrivals being 55 A family or a couple dreams of a holiday in Antalya per cent below levels recorded in 2019. The second with luxurious dining, perfect pools, extensive activities, considered a potential rebound in September, leading rooftop cocktail bar with sunset views, high-quality service to a 22 per cent increase in arrivals compared with and great entertainment. Now, pandemic realities have 2020. This would still be 67 per cent below 2019 levels. to be blended with guests’ dreams to render a safe and trustworthy holiday; tourists must have the assurance Given UNWTO’s projected recovery scenarios and that all measures are in place to prevent the spread of being a popular holiday destination, Turkey was in tight the virus. That’s where the Safe Tourism Certification lockdown until May 17, 2021 to lower the number of Programme (STCP) comes into play: To open up space Covid-19 cases to 100 per 100,000, in order to restart for guests; assure them that they don’t need to ask ‘what its international tourism. Elsewhere, the UK made if ’ questions; and take steps to realise their dream holiday. its cautious decision that foreign travel could start 36 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

Covid-19 A year ago, Turkey introduced the STCP with longer than the planned holiday, extra accommodation Sources: unparalleled measures that do not exist in most EU costs are covered by the hotel as part of Turkish hospitality. countries. It defines and advises an extensive series of When the isolation period ends with a negative PCR ■ e-unwto.org; actions concerning transportation and accommodation test, the guests can fly back to their own country. ■ Which countries of all guests who holiday in Turkey, as well as the are on the green wellbeing and health of passengers and employees at Turkey started fully fledged vaccination of its list for foreign tourist facilities. Pandemic and certification protocols are tourism employees in March, including airlines, holidays? (May, issued separately in terms of domestic airlines, airports, airports, accommodation facilities and travel 2020): bbc.com/news/ highways, transportation vehicles and tourism facilities agencies, as well as professional guides, covering explainers; with over 50-bed capacity. In other words, STCP is all service employees within the safe corridor. ■ gov.uk/guidance; configured to ensure the health and safety of passengers ■ tga.gov.tr; landing at the destination airport, travelling to their Employees of all facilities holding a valid Safe Tourism ■ covid19asi.saglik. hotels, their time spent at their hotels and all employees Certificate are included in the Covid-19 vaccination gov.tr who serve them at every point in this process. Similar to programme, adding an extra layer of resilience to the transportation of foods through an unbroken cold chain, tourism industry in Turkey, making it a healthier, safer Photos taken from the factory to the shopping trolley, STCP aims for and a more trustworthy destination for holidaymakers. at Barut Hotels’ rigorous implementation of pandemic protocols inside resorts, showing a ‘safe corridor’ from the airport to the accommodation Currently, the Ministry of Health offers both Covid-19 facility and back, including all service elements. BioNTech/Pfizer and Sinovac (China) vaccines for measures in place tourism employees. The European Medicines Agency Safe Tourism Certificates are not valid forever. For was reviewing data for both Sinovac BioTech and Barut Hotels every facility that has earned its certificate, monthly Sputnik V to file a formal application for authorisation. inspections are conducted across 187 criteria with no remote inspection. In addition, secret customer As an example, Barut Hotels operates 13 resorts inspections without notice are conducted. Verification is in Turkey with four resort hotels, one city hotel and a completed within three days following the field inspection textile laundry as part of Barut Hospitality Management to determine whether a tourist facility re-qualifies. (BHM). Among its 2,000 employees, the first dose of vaccination rate on May 6, 2021 was above 70 per cent. Inspections are carried out by institutions accredited by the Turkish Accreditation Agency (Turkak), a full In co-ordination, Turkiye Tourism Promotion and member of the European Co-operation for Accreditation Development Agency (TGA), the Ministry of Culture (EA), the International Accreditation Forum (IAF) and Tourism and the Ministry of Health undertook and the International Laboratory Accreditation Co- vaccination of the entire tourism staff, to be completed operation (ILAC). These institutions must comply with criteria such as being ISO 17020 and ISO 17021 certified; by the end of May 2021. Therefore, every employee a have experience in inspection of food hygiene and safety, occupational health and safety, environmental guest may encounter within the safe corridor should have management systems; be an international and accredited brand and have been operating in at least five different been vaccinated before the start of the summer season. countries, at least two of which must be in Europe (except Turkey); and be a brand that has executed at least 50 Whether this is an overly cautious or necessary opening international certificates regulated in standard norms in at least five different countries each (except Turkey). of the doors of international tourism, there are certainly As of May 2021, 3,875 accommodation facilities, 1,575 more critical factors to be included tour and transfer vehicles, 1,702 restaurant and café facilities, five culture-art-congress facilities, 149 marine when assessing the risks, level of tourism facilities and vehicles, six theme parks and nine ski lift facilities had passed strict inspections and resilience and determining the health Author held Safe Tourism Certificates. The STCP certainly increased the capability to prevent the spread of and safety levels of each country HAKAN YILMAZ MTQM Covid-19 and mitigate risks through strong measures in place inside the safe corridor, thereby increasing every three weeks when it comes (Hons), BSc, ME, is the Group the resilience of the tourism industry in Turkey. to managing international travel Director of Human Capital at So, how can the export of Covid-19 to travellers’ countries of origin be prevented? There have been through a traffic light system. Barut Hotels instances where guests arrived in Turkey during the incubation period and became symptomatic after arriving at a hotel. In such cases, they are taken to a hospital for a PCR test and, if positive, they can decide whether to be treated in hospital or at the hotel. Isolation rooms are mandatory in hotels with over 50 rooms and a Covid-19 test can be performed by trained healthcare staff or a health institution. Guests with Covid-19 remain isolated in hotels until their PCR test results are negative. Since most hotels implement all-inclusive board, guests do not need to pay for food or beverages. Even if the isolation period lasts Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 37

CCroovsisd--t1r9aiannindgbdeuyroinngd John Holcroft | Ikon Images

resilience In a follow up to his article on leadership succession planning in our previous edition, Robert Fagan explores the concept of cross-training as a means of identifying future and potential leaders Cross-training has always been important in emergency but it is worth it in the end. If each department is tasked with response organisations and business continuity, but identifying valuable skills to add to a cross-training programme, the era of Covid-19 has demonstrated its importance they will be forced to look closely at what is important and how in all organisations across public and private sectors. best to pass that knowledge along. While Covid-19 has been a Cross-training involves teaching employees who terrible pandemic, the silver lining is that it has forced many were hired for one role to develop the skills required to perform organisations to be much more efficient, because they must now other job functions. In this article, I use the term ‘employee’ achieve more with less. How many legacy tasks exist in your holistically to include volunteers and all types of staff. Cross- organisation because it has always been done that way or because training employees goes beyond training in case someone is the higher echelon requires it? The activity of task identification ill. It is about developing employees to improve the business, and function in and of itself increases efficiency, especially in small customer or client experience and product or service delivery. organisations where each employee already has multiple layers It allows employees to expand their skills and knowledge of responsibility. Honing the skills needed and figuring out how on the job, because they work on new projects and gain the to transmit them efficiently and effectively can help streamline skills necessary for specialisation or a more senior role. every aspect of the organisation’s processes and client delivery. There are several major benefits of implementing cross-training. Cross-training employees may entail on-the-job training that In a dedicated, well developed organisational programme, the can help reveal hidden talents, increase employees’ skillsets and positives far outweigh any negatives. At all levels, employees’ skills provide opportunities for advancing goals and objectives. are reinforced and developed to ensure better overall organisational understanding. The idea is to empower employees to provide Who knew that your logistics assistant also speaks support from within the organisation, instead of outsourcing Mandarin? Who was aware that someone in your public or overloading one group of employees during hectic times. If relations staff happens to be a skilled accountant? nothing else, the Covid-19 pandemic has taught us that there may not be immediate availability outside our own organisation. Rainbows and unicorns? Then there is the potential to improve returns on investment – However, cross-training is not all rainbows and unicorns. Some everyone likes to save money and time. Look no further than internal employees may view it as an added responsibility with no added personnel for increased savings and gains. While time has already pay. It is important to make sure that leveraging each employee’s been spent on hiring employees who can do their jobs well, there are strengths is done fairly and equitably, balancing workloads as additional talents, abilities and knowledge already among your staff much as possible. While we all seek maximum productivity, the if you know how to mine them and are willing to invest in upskilling risk of burn-out during Covid-19 is higher than normal, especially existing personnel. Who knows the organisation better than those when too much is added, too fast. Employees need to know that working there already? If done well, cross-training encourages their abilities are valued and that they are not viewed as beasts employees to share their knowledge without the need to introduce of burden. Another potential risk is building an organisation new people, saving employers in terms of time and onboarding costs. filled with generalists. These are employees who know a little bit about a lot of things, but not too much about one. While this can Crucially, cross-training is about collaboration in a slightly be helpful to fill gaps when an employee is ill or quarantining, more formalised way to share knowledge about plans, policies, particularly in a small organisation, there is a risk of appearing procedures and delivery to clients. Many employees have to be a mile wide and an inch deep in terms of the organisation’s extensive expertise in one area, but because they are hyper- true mission in its field. Let highly trained specialists be specialists, focused or over-specialised, they lack the ability to collaborate even as they dip a toe into other aspects of the organisation. successfully with others in the organisation. Job rotations, special projects between teams and occasional temporary During Covid-19, most of us have experienced the positive reassignments are simple ways to break down these barriers. and negative effects of cross-training. Whether in our own organisation, the local and national governments we deal with, Thus far the concept might sound like more work for the same or through goods and services, we can see who has understood pay. But nothing stops employee initiative faster than the perception these concepts and responded well to them, and who has not. of a dead-end job or assignment. Good employees who see no potential for growth will quickly perceive this and may start The benefits of cross-training are real and long-lasting, helping looking for employment elsewhere. When employees know there are to boost organisational resilience. Developing a cross-training opportunities for growth within, their motivation to seek out training programme need not be an arduous, time consuming task. opportunities – and perhaps a corresponding increase in pay – grows. In the next issue, I will outline how to develop a cross-training During Covid-19, most of us have felt the absence of someone plan regardless of size and staffing numbers. A little investment in in our organisation, either through illness or quarantine, and this area can go a long way to making organisations adaptive and might have asked: “How come nobody else knows how to do this?” much more responsive. Whether it’s emergency response or a neighbourhood church, no organisation can afford to allow this level of vulnerability to creep Author in. Cross-training builds resilience, even when the resident expert steps away. This makes plans, policies, and procedures more During his 30-year military career, Colonel ROBERT FAGAN, sustainable in times of transition or during unexpected emergencies. US Army (Ret) deployed to many international humanitarian The process is not easy at the outset and the effort is frontloaded, assistance and disaster relief operations. He is involved in training and education, is a crisis management consultant and Member of the CRJ’s Advisory Panel Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 39

C-suites: A wild card Eric McNulty says that C-suite executives can be helpful or a hindrance when dealing with a crisis. Here, he puts forward some advice and steps for senior executives to follow so that they can be assets when it matters most T here is an old joke shared with me by friends in emergency activities. Suddenly, no one knows what to expect services: “CHAOS stands for: Chief has arrived on next. Hesitation and second-guessing follow. This scene.” It can be equally apt for chief executives and predictable surprise upends carefully laid plans and their peers in a corporate or public sector crisis. At unsettles the battle rhythm of the crisis team. The their best, C-suite executives provide institutional cascading turbulence can gravely derail a response. support for a crisis team, set an appropriate tone with the media and the public and reassure employees I spoke with Jim Andrews, a health, safety, and and investors. At their worst, they make unforced environment (HSE) executive with decades of experience errors, disrupt practised protocols and create the in the energy sector. He has worked with several CEOs avoidable secondary crisis of a fumbled response. and the nature of that industry is such that he has seen plenty of volatile situations. “Accomplished executives The difference between the two is the ability of often underestimate the difficulty of leading in a crisis,” he crisis team managers to ‘lead up’ effectively, deploying said. Having put together a merger does not necessarily influence well beyond their authority. Among the prepare one for a situation where lives are on the line. unanticipated risks I have seen crisis teams face is a senior executive who has failed to make time for Senior executives, like all of us, are subject to the drills and exercises, yet who shows up for the crisis Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias that leads one to and expects to be in charge. Unfamiliar with the plan overestimate one’s abilities. Without experience, however, and its contingencies, the executive begins to direct few people have sufficient self-knowledge to judge their own competence. This is one reason why Andrews 40 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

leadership when crisis strikes? Natallia counsels that senior executives engage in a six-to-eight- the CEO if a member of the crisis team needs to be Yaumenenka | hour exercise at least once a year. If an executive performs replaced,” he said. “If the CEO is leading the team and 123rf well, you know you can draw on them in an actual crisis. stumbles, I have nowhere to go to fix the problem.” If they do poorly, they gain an improved appreciation of the skills of the crisis professionals and are more likely This point was echoed by cybersecurity executive to refrain from trying to run a response themselves. Malcolm Harkins, who noted that it is important to protect the organisation in a crisis. This is more difficult According to Andrews, a disciplined approach to if the CEO is on the front lines of the response. “If things preparation helps senior executives to understand roles do not go well and someone needs to step down, it is and expectations for themselves and others. There will easier to replace a senior vice president than a chief be something for everyone to do and the goal is to get executive. The organisation and its board do not need as many people as possible engaged in activities that succession concerns on top of the other issues in play.” advance the group towards the best possible outcome. This is not to suggest that C-suite executives If senior executives fail to take crisis preparedness seriously, it should be an articulated corporate Cards in your favour: A risk alongside severe weather, active shooters and disciplined approach to geopolitics. Andrews advised using ‘bad’ examples preparation helps senior from other organisations as part of annual risk executives to understand mapping to illustrate the reality of the danger. roles and expectations Ideally, executives develop the self-awareness to are not involved in the crisis response. Instead, understand where they can best add value. In interviews they should have specific, well-crafted roles to in the aftermath of the Boston Marathon bombings in play. Three important functions for them are 2013, my Harvard colleagues and I heard repeated praise presence, communication and decision-making. for Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick. We learned that Patrick never tried to direct operations. Instead, he A colleague at the National Preparedness Leadership consistently asked: “How can I be helpful?” and: “What Initiative (NPLI), Dr Leonard Marcus, said that crisis do you need me to do?” None of this diminished his leadership presence has something in common with real authority or stature. In fact, being willing to be led in estate: the importance of ‘location, location, location.’ The CEO who retreats to his or her office can be as dangerous the tactical domain best positioned him to as one who will not leave the emergency operations centre. lead his constituents, while enabling his Location decisions should be strategic and intentional. operational leaders to do their jobs well. Andrews shared that he wants the For example, when the triple disaster of an earthquake, operating crisis team to be one or tsunami, and nuclear plant meltdown hit Fukushima two levels below the C-suite. “The in Japan in 2011, the damage was significant and the crisis team may need to dedicate country’s morale was devastated. In research for our prolonged time during an event,” book, You’re It: Crisis, Change, and How to Lead When he said. “Top executives are best it Matters Most, I interviewed Muhtar Kent, CEO and deployed overseeing the day-to-day Chairman of the Coca-Cola Company during this business. That’s where they have incident. Among Kent’s first moves was to travel to the greatest expertise – and not Japan, accompanied by two of the company’s directors. all of them have the temperament Employees of Coca-Cola and their local bottling for crisis leadership.” The response partners, as well as their families and customers, were team needs to be practised and directly affected by the disaster; Japan is a major proficient in managing the dynamics market for the company. The physical presence of of crises together. Executive teams the CEO conveyed that the company understood rarely have the time or inclination the magnitude of the incident and demonstrated its to dedicate sufficient time and effort commitment to its stakeholders there. The company to achieve that level of collective later established the Coca-Cola Japan Reconstruction skill. This is not a criticism of senior Fund with ¥2.5 billion – approximately $31 million or managers; it is an acknowledgement £19 million – to be used: “Mainly in the construction that leading in a crisis requires of educational and other public facilities needed for distinct capacities and capabilities. rebuilding the lives of children affected by the disaster.”  Andrews also mentioned that it was important for him, as the senior HSE manager, to monitor the performance of each member of the crisis team constantly. “I may need the support of Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 41

Albertus Engbers | 123rf Steve Soltis, now at the Darden School of Business at six months of the active response would have sufficed. the University of Virginia, led executive communications Potentially more troublesome than the distraction of for Coca-Cola at this time. He told me that Kent’s presence on the ground was essential to the company’s the visit are the decisions a top executive might make overall response. His yardsticks for executive prominence during interactions with stakeholders or the media. in a crisis are severity and aptitude. The more On one of Obama’s visits, he responded to complaints serious the event and the more adept the executive at from local officials by committing to increase the communicating, the more visible you want them to be. number of responders significantly. The challenge was that there were not enough tasks for a surge of Too much executive presence, however, can have responders. Nor were there resources available to negative consequences. During the response to the house, feed or train them. Obama was well-intentioned Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, US President yet he did not fully understand the implications of Barack Obama visited the Gulf of Mexico region five his promise. One responder I was with at the time times. It was the largest environmental disaster in US bemoaned that: “Now we’re into response theatre.” history, meeting Soltis’s severity test. Obama was a master communicator, clearly exceeding the aptitude Leading requires effective communication, and never standard. Yet every visit by a top leader is disruptive more so than in a crisis. People want to know that top to response leaders on the ground: They generate executives grasp the problem, care about how it is affecting briefings that must be given and tours that must be led; them and are doing something about it. According protocol and security issues arise; and optics compete to Soltis, four thematic elements should populate with operations for priority. One or two visits over the every company’s crisis communications dashboard: Trustworthiness; timeliness; transparency; and tenacity. 42 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

leadership “In content and delivery, your executives’ experience to making high importance calls. A ship communications should reinforce the organisation’s blocks the Suez Canal. Who decides whether your trustworthiness with the full range of stakeholders,” he ships should wait, or seek an alternate route? A coup said. “That requires being forthcoming, to the extent topples the government in Myanmar. Who decides legal and regulatory requirements allow, and empathic.” if you evacuate and move your production to another Soltis emphasises the importance of unity between the country? An extremist kidnaps two of your employees and chief communications officer and the general counsel. In demands a ransom. Who decides whether to negotiate? my own experience, the communications team sees the When I am asked by business continuity professionals benefits of engagement in the unfolding event narrative how to get top executives to pay attention to preparedness, lest it be shaped by others, while the legal team prefers I advise them to start the conversation with decisions. a quieter posture. One general counsel I worked with Executives pride themselves on their ability to make shared that everything the company does after an incident decisions. It allows them to demonstrate expertise and creates evidence that is discoverable in litigation. Each authority. Invite them to help you understand where view has validity. One job questions like those above sit of the crisis team leader is One risk is the senior on their agenda. This will to help these executives find often lead to a discussion harmony, balancing the executive who fails to make of what the executive will opportunities and risks of need to know in order both offence and defence. time for drills and exercises, to make the decision – Tenacity, Soltis notes, invaluable insight for the yet shows up for the crisis crisis leader to anticipate means owning the issue, even if you are not and expects to be in charge information needs and responsible. “You want to avert micromanagement. follow through until the It also assures the senior very end,” he says, so that you never lose influence in the executive that he or she will have an important role to play. narrative. This includes social media monitoring to listen Everything above is dependent upon a productive, trust- for ticking time bomb issues that might emerge during a based relationship between the crisis team leader and the crisis, even after the main event appears to be resolved. senior-most executive they report to. To understand these Communications are not only external. June dynamics better, I spoke with an NPLI colleague, VADM West, associate professor of business administration (ret) Peter Neffenger, former Vice Commandant of the at the Darden School, specialises in organisational US Coast Guard. Neffenger served as deputy national communication and leadership. She tells me that incident commander for the Deepwater Horizon spill and executives often fall short in communicating with who was administrator of the US Transportation Security employees. She noted that a crisis can take employees Administration during its ‘wait line crisis’ of 2016. Those rapidly down Maslow’s hierarchy to concern over experiences have taught him a lot about leading up. basic physiological and safety needs. “The Covid Neffenger tells me that you must ensure that your boss crisis has upped the accessibility of CEOs, and has the confidence in you to do the job. “Sometimes that has increased employee expectations,” she tells you have to just come out and ask,” he says. Putting the me. “Executives need to be ready to meet them.” question on the table can clear up ambiguity. It also West pointed to the 2021 Edelman Trust Barometer opens a deeper exploration of what the boss needs in that shows business as the most trusted of the four order to maintain that confidence and what support you sectors measured, and the only one with an increase need from them in order to deliver on expectations. in trust over 2020. According to Edelman: “The It is a fact of life that CEOs worry about share prices heightened expectations of business bring CEOs and political officials are concerned with polls. These new demands to focus on societal engagement with reflect the sentiments of people to whom they are the same rigour, thoughtfulness, and energy used to accountable. “Work with your boss to know his or her deliver on profits.” West says that executives need style and needs,” Neffenger says. “What information to listen to the organisation and be ready to hear do they want? How often? In what form? What core difficult truths: “Employees want to take pride in their principles do they expect you to follow? You need organisation. They want the company and its executives to understand the pressures they are facing. All of to represent positive values and be good citizens.” this helps you build a productive relationship.” In NPLI research on leader behaviours during crises, In today’s turbulent world, every leader in every two activities that degraded team performance stood out: organisation needs to anticipate confronting a micromanagement and the inability to make a decision. crisis. It is a skill rarely taught in business school, They are two sides of the same coin, each reflecting a lack but is too important to leave to chance. of understanding of how senior executives can help in a By effectively leading up, crisis professionals can avert crisis. You don’t want them making every decision, but chaos erupting at the top. The chief arriving on scene can there are certain decisions only they can, or want, to make. be welcome, after all. Here again is the value of requiring the C-suite team to participate in scenario-based exercises. This Author allows them to experience being overwhelmed by small ERIC J MCNULTY, Associate Director and Program consequence decisions, the unintended consequences Faculty, NPLI, Harvard University, USA and member of decisions outside of their domain of expertise and of CRJ’s Advisory Panel. NPLI is a CRJ Key the importance of their broader view and business Network Partner Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 43

It’s all a matter of risk In this short interview, Emily Hough speaks to Michele Wucker about her new book, You are what you risk, and discovers that the key to better risk literacy lies in trust, agency and understanding your own relationship with risk “T he world is getting scarier. Often it feels harder and harder to exert control over the risks we face in our daily lives, much less over many of the global risks facing the entire planet. “Like past viruses that ignore national boundaries, the Covid-19 pandemic has raced around the world. Temperatures are rising and weather is becoming more extreme. Scientists warn that we risk the collapses of ecosystems and the life they support. Financial collapse in a single industry or country can create a domino effect across global financial markets. The risk of disruptive new technologies and artificial intelligence has upended industries, changed global trade and employment trends, created deep anxieties over the future of work and increased the potential for the global spread of disinformation and hate speech. Even as inequality among countries shrinks, inequalities within them have risen, leading to political and social instability, distrust in civil institutions, racial tensions, nationalism and protectionism.” These words from Michele Wucker’s new book, You are what you risk: The new art and science of navigating an uncertain world, encapsulate the malaise that many people around the world are feeling. But what, if anything, can Michele Wucker, author of You are what you risk Hal Shipman we do about it? Is it our perception that needs to change, You are what you risk firmly embraces the strengths or are there more concrete actions we can take? What that come from transcending traditional boundaries and brings together research in anthropology, journalism, of business continuity teams, struggling to make their strategy, policy, behavioural psychology, organisational dynamics, policy, sociology, organisational typology voices heard in organisations that see this function as and behavioural economics, with a sprinkling of theology and etymology. And of course, economics a necessary, but ultimately easily ignored asset… until underpins the whole, but: “I try to downplay that a bit, as I wanted the book to be accessible,” Wucker notes. it comes to a crisis? How does trust – in the people Using the Risk Type Compass developed by British around you, institutions, governments and international psychologist Geoff Trickey, Wucker explains how eight risk personality types can be placed on the 360-degree governance – affect perception of risk? Why do some spectrum of a compass. These include: Excitable; deliberate; intense; composed; adventurous; wary; people avoid risk after major shocks, while for others prudent; and carefree. Yet these types, she contends, are just the starting point. Each person has their own, conquering risk leads them to face more risks? Can we unique risk fingerprint, which is the combination of their underlying personality disposition, experiences and train ourselves to act differently in the face of known how they choose to act in a variety of situations. It also extends to the people around them – family, friends, the risks? What prompts us to change our risk behaviour? organisation where they work, their community and broader society. Viewed through this lens, it becomes The answers, according to You are what you risk, lie in: easier for an individual to assess their personal risk fingerprint, predispositions, attitudes and tendencies. “The feedback loop between individual risk profiles and the health of the businesses and organisations where they work, and in turn how cultural attitudes and policy ecosystems can make the difference between a healthy economy and society, or one that is teetering on the brink of disaster.” Wucker explains that the book is a natural progression from the best selling Gray Rhino: How to recognise and act on the obvious dangers we ignore, and that it is about: “Finding ways to talk about risk in a way that is relevant to every single one of us. “We make an estimated 35,000 decisions every day,” she continues. “Every risk is a choice, and every choice is a risk. So that’s 35,000 risks a day, but most of the time people don’t think about this consciously.” 44 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

risk Organisations have their own risk fingerprints Whether confronting a pandemic or climate change, too, emphasises Wucker: “How sensitive is the organisation’s culture to risk and things that could the solution lies in understanding risk sensitivity, go wrong, and how do they even define things that go wrong? This will be different, depending on risk attitude and risk behaviour, and not becoming departmental roles, for example, marketing and legal departments will have very different risk fingerprints.” overwhelmed. “Everybody has to work together to solve It is here that risk empathy is vital, Wucker emphasises. a problem,” she says, “businesses, governments and Paying attention to the risk fingerprints of those around you – including other departments – helps individuals all have a mutually reinforcing role to play.” to see things from their point of view. In turn, this supports and builds more resilient relationships across In the end, what is risk? Wucker’s book says: “Its cultures, in families, communities and politics. appearance changes depending on your point of view. Risk Risk empathy can be a danger, an opportunity, or both. Risk is taking a Risk empathy, especially in a business sense, is so important because: “Risk professionals are used to chance: a possibility or an estimated probability. Risk is a things keeping them up at night,” but they also need to understand their colleagues’ concerns about risk and how muscle. Risk is a privilege. Risk is what you love or what empowered they feel to do something about it. When Wucker spoke to people working in disaster risk reduction you fear. What you are willing to risk signals your sense and business continuity, many voiced how difficult it was for them to break out of the organisational silos they have of purpose. Every risk is a choice; every choice is a risk.” been placed in, and the problems in getting business continuity to be taken as seriously as it should be. “That’s It is impossible to do justice to You are what you risk in one of the reasons I wrote this book,” she says. “I wrote it with lots of business relevance, but it is also addressed this short interview, which only skims the surface of the at individuals who might not necessarily see themselves as business leaders or who might ‘hate’ business books. deep analysis and reflection that Wucker brings to life with “I hope that it will help people to understand their own fluent, literary ease. However, one risk fingerprint, their organisational risk fingerprint, and then start showing risk empathy towards others… underlying message should resonate and understand what makes people feel excited enough to pursue a ‘good’ risk – an opportunity – and what far and wide – as human beings we Author motivates them to head off a danger, a ‘bad’ risk. have agency, and liberation from EMILY HOUGH is Editor in “When you understand motivations on a team, it becomes easier to mobilise people in the direction risk paralysis lies in accepting the Chief of the Crisis Response you want. My hope is that this book becomes a tool that helps risk management professionals to prepare vulnerability of trying. Journal people well ahead of a crisis, so they are ready. The more we take certain risks and face down other risks, not just dealing with them passively, the more muscles we build and the better we get at doing it.” In the wider world, however, there is a paradox. Wucker highlights how global threats such as climate, polarisation, toxification of discourse and societal division, among others, are all part of a complex system, and many can seem so overwhelming and potentially catastrophic that people can simply tune them out, focusing instead on areas that they can control. This creeping, world weary paralysis means that: “We can swing wildly between overprotecting ourselves from some risks, ignoring others, and embracing more and more questionable risks,” she comments, and this is symptomatic of a broken relationship with risk, which is widening some of today’s most global fault lines: “Not least of which are inequality and the global surge of populism.” You are what you risk: The new art and science of navigating Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 45 an uncertain world by Michele Wucker, is published by Pegasus Books, ISBN: 978-1-74313-678-3 and can be purchased from bookshops Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com

The very real risks of reputation Organisational reputation is a conundrum. It takes years of hard work, ethics and consistency to build and maintain, yet it is unpredictable. It can erode slowly until it reaches a tipping point, or can be lost overnight. Massimo Pani has researched this enigma and provides practical advice While company reputation has been a top risk priority for board level management, it is still a neglected asset Oiahi | 123rf 46 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

reputation R eputation declines when the opinion, experience or with a settlement of millions of dollars. A study the perception held by different stakeholders, based on the past following year revealed that the pharmaceutical industry actions or prospects of a company or organisation, falls ranked last in reputation behind a dozen other sectors. short of their expectations. According to Rupert Younger, author of The Reputation Game, while we cannot control We live in a contradictory time where a general what people are thinking and saying about us, we can and unprecedented aversion to risk contrasts with master three elements: behaviour, network and narrative. a continuously perceived lack of trust. Technology and globalisation have boosted business and Behaviour is what others expect from us. For example, financial flows, yet public interest and societal if a business always pays suppliers within 30 days, this norms have shifted, demanding greater scrutiny, indicates it is reliable. Younger then argues that if you improved transparency, higher accountability, are not part of the right networks, it is harder to be better governance and enhanced compliance. appreciated and to have the reputation you deserve. The explosive growth of social media has Finally, we have narrative, which can represent dramatically altered brand communication, with a conundrum – Younger says that this is because organisations joining the online arena through we all have multiple reputations, which vary Twitter accounts, Facebook pages and Snapchat according to the views of different stakeholders. channels, to understand the nature of the modern brand communication environment, learn what drives While it is relatively easy to define a firm’s customers and determine what strategy works best. reputation and investigate its distinctive elements, it is more difficult to characterise reputational risk, Other factors have increased company exposure to as there is no agreed unanimity on the term. reputational risk, including a heightened sensitivity to cultural, diversity, inclusion and race issues. Another For some, it is a specific risk that differs from other issue is a growing trend of CEOs releasing comments categories as it is purely a ‘human-caused’ product created on social media on topics about which they would by social interactions and communication, with clear have previously been silent, stirring reactions among drivers and specific tangible business consequences. For foreign governments, workers, customers, journalists others, it is a risk among risks and does not exist on a and pressure groups, all with their own agendas. The standalone basis. A third perspective considers reputation public view of the purpose of a business has also shifted, not to be a risk at all, but simply an outcome of other risks. with a growing sense that corporate actions should be evaluated based on their impact on shareholders, Reputational risk is different from other types of risk not purely on profitability and shareholder value. because it is shaped outside the organisation, usually involving what the media, customers, employees High priority, yet neglected and stakeholders are saying in the public domain. Consequently, tools, analyses, monitoring and Reputation is high on the list of CEO and boardroom metrics of reputational risks are different from those risks, a fact confirmed by many surveys over recent of traditional risk management, which deals with years. One survey shows that 58 per cent of participants what lies within the control or the organisation. reported being increasingly worried by the constant risk posed to the growth of their business by the breakdown Another element makes reputational risk different: in public trust. Eighty-seven per cent thought that it cannot be transferred to a third party. Although social media would harm the level of stakeholder some types of insurance are specifically developed for trust in the next five years. Fifty-eight per cent were reputational risk, these only capture certain aspects of the convinced that data collected will impact stakeholder damages (such as expenses for public relations activities), levels of trust, showing that not only it is difficult to while the real damages are difficult to estimate and long- win stakeholder confidence in a digitised world, but term effects are hard to quantify. Organisations bear the it is even harder to keep their trust, owing to evolving consequences of reputational risk as they are the only ones society, benchmarks and breakthroughs in technology. that can devise a holistic approach to it from start to finish. Notwithstanding this climate of mistrust, while Reputational risk is highly unpredictable and can be company reputation has been in a top risk priority triggered by virtually anything and anywhere, both for board management, it is still a neglected asset. within a business or outside of it, and can range from a small incident to a large crisis. Its causes can be as A 2020 Willis Tower Watson global reputational diverse as product harm, C-suite actions, social media risk management analysis claims that only 48 per posts, bad reviews, environmental impact, employee cent of people surveyed are ‘very committed’ to misbehaviour, outsourcing, physical security, corporate managing reputational risk, while another 27 per cent policies, employment, cyber threats or a data breach. are ‘somewhat’ committed. Another 2020 survey by Hence, it is a strategic risk, representing a diverse Deloitte Global Risk Management provides an even business risk segment with its own circumstances lower predisposition towards reputational risk, with only and peculiarities. Other than causing chaos within 65 per cent of respondents ready to tackle intangible an organisation, reputational damage can add asset risks. Organisations need to change their posture. extra pressure or provoke cascading effects. There is too much at stake – a brand developed over decades can be dismantled by a single event. Such damage can spread across an entire industry sector, generating cascading effects that tarnish the Covid-19 has caused nearly 3.8 million deaths globally reputation of all other companies in that same sector. so far. Alongside this abysmal scale of fatalities and a Take the case of one pharmaceutical company that raised worldwide financial crisis, and despite previous stark the price of one of its products by 400 per cent, sparking warnings and predictions, the pandemic has exposed outrage, triggering an official investigation and a lawsuit Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 47

the world to unfathomable uncertainties. National However, it is necessary to distinguish damage and local governments and businesses are perceived associated with the incident, such as operational as having been greatly unprepared to face a crisis of losses, imposed penalties, and recovery or restitution these proportions. Reputational damage to institutions costs, from damages that are strictly reputational. and businesses has yet to be calculated, but it is already The latter can diminish the company’s value, limit evident that Covid-19 has aggravated a pre-existing future opportunities and increase the cost of doing lack of trust in governments and global organisations. future business; all are a direct consequence of how the company is perceived following an incident. Cases of employers putting profits before the welfare of workers during Covid-19 have not only Given the impact of such damage, reputational been judged negatively by investors, but have risk management is a critical organisational function sparked worldwide employee backlashes, pushing that must be managed proactively to protect and companies to be fairer and more responsible when prevent, as well as to deal with events and consequences dealing with employees and the supply chain. that may cause damage to its reputation. But while the eyes of the world were locked on Covid-19, However, an often-overlooked positive aspect other unprecedented events were developing. The 2020 of company reputational risk is that it presents an Australian bushfire season caused billions of dollars of opportunity to improve the company name. damage, killed 34 people with more than 445 indirect deaths, killed or displaced nearly three billion animals Although reputation is an intangible concept, and destroyed thousands of homes. A survey by the researchers universally show that with good reputation, Australia Trade and Promotion Agency showed that 31 companies demonstrably increase their corporate worth per cent of people interviewed in China, 27 per cent in and provide a sustained corporate advantage. A business South Korea, 18 per cent in the UK, 15 per cent in Japan can achieve its goals more easily if it has a good reputation and Indonesia, and 13 per cent in the USA, experienced among key stakeholders represented by customers, opinion a worsening perception of Australia owing to these fires. groups, suppliers and employees. Being known as a great employer and providing rewarding career opportunities Another major incident that generated reputational will help recruit the brightest and best, leading to damage in 2020 was in Beirut, when the most powerful lower recruitment costs, less staff turnover and greater non-nuclear explosion reported in history – involving productivity. Likewise, a firm that is considered reliable the detonation of 2,750 tons of stored ammonium and well regarded secures a loyal bond with customers. nitrate – resulted in more than 211 deaths and 6,000 When a problem arises, they will be persuaded to offer the injured, left an estimated 300,000 homeless, triggered benefit of the doubt. Government regulators will be less a government resignation and seeded a financial crisis. prone to punish a company with a good reputation if a Despite repeated warnings since 2014, the unstable single incident trips its business. Equally, lawmakers know explosive had been left stored in Beirut harbour. It seems the importance of the reputation of public institutions that the authorities still have not learned their lesson, that underpin a fair legal system and good governance. as two kilos of depleted uranium salts were recently found stored in an oil facility close to the capital. These positive examples provide an opportunity to outline another contradictory aspect of reputational The year 2020 also saw a financial scandal that left risk – its two dimensions: Capability, that is how the Wells Fargo’s reputation in tatters when employees, company is perceived by others; and character, the pressured by unrealistic targets, were found to have been perception of how we carry on with what we do. opening fake client bank accounts and signing clients These distinctive aspects can result in the difference up for unrequested services. Before the scandal broke, between failure and success for a company. the bank was considered to have a sterling reputation. Younger uses Rolls Royce as example. The company These events show how corporations and organisations has always had a reputation for producing aircraft engines are unprepared for reputational risk crises. of extraordinary reliability and quality. When one of the engines on Qantas Flight 32 exploded after take-off Amorphous risk from Changi airport in Singapore in November 2004, the crew managed an emergency landing, resulting in According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, problems no casualties. The accident was later ascribed to an in managing reputational risk include confusion engine with a defective component. While the incident over how it should be categorised, the lack of widely caused a fall in share price, Rolls Royce investors and accepted techniques on how to quantify such an customers saw the event as an exceptional situation and amorphous risk, and the fact that there is no formal its reputation of reliability and trustworthiness prevailed. ownership of reputational risk, with responsibility In 2016, the company was investigated for bribery and spread across a wide range of managers and employees. fraud in the UK, Indonesia, China, Brazil and Nigeria. It This shows how reputational risk is more difficult to sustained several reputational blows, but nothing as severe anticipate and manage than any other type of risk. had it been under investigation for an engine failure. An unchecked or neglected reputational risk So how can CEOs and managers identify, manage can seriously undermine companies in multiple and mitigate reputational risk? First, companies ways, with both short and long-term consequences. should delve into the past to improve their planning Reputational damage can reduce investment capacities and make better-informed decisions for their and put off existing and potential customers. It future. This is done by analysing and understanding also affects competitiveness, positioning, trust, the root causes of reputational risk events that have stakeholder loyalty, media relations, legitimacy of affected their peers and other industries. Such analyses operations and, ultimately, the license to exist. 48 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

reputation help to understand the variety of potential events, professional tools to solve client issues promptly. evaluate their patterns, monitor how and when the threat materialised and in what way it evolved. Keeping the workforce happy is another way to Once analysis of the past has been mastered, and mitigate reputational risk. Treating all employees fairly managers have a better idea of what they could face, scenario planning is the next step to identify events and ensuring they operate with ethical standards will that are most likely to manifest, based on company profile, risk tolerance, industry, geography and overall reduce staff turnover, boost morale and productivity and exposure. When these vulnerabilities have been identified it might be necessary to quantify their severity, provide a safeguard that customers are treated well. evaluating potential impact on the company itself, the brand, employees, suppliers and overall reputation. Reputational risks can stem from external sources, such As reputational risk is subjective, it is appropriate to as an unethical partner, agent, supplier, third parties, or divide stakeholders into separate groups to determine different areas of exposure, allowing the specific level of even another company in the same sector. While it is not danger for each group to be ascertained. One technique is to use internal and external surveys to collect information always possible to foresee these risks, it is appropriate to from different stakeholder categories. Another is to analyse discussion topics on search engines or major social media be proactive and to take any step platforms to discover drivers of unfavourable content and build a complete picture of a product or industry. Review that may mitigate a negative fallout. sites offer a snapshot of how the company is perceived by current and past employees. Finally, monitoring Reputational risk is a complex and tools can support analysis and research on the web. ambiguous strategic challenge that Author Next, it is necessary to elaborate a strategy to manage and mitigate reputational risk. The crisis could tarnish a brand irredeemably. MASSIMO PANI is an EU response plan should include not only resource identification (human, assets and technology), but By following this practical advice, CVE-CT Resident Advisor. He also a response preparedness and an escalation plan. Countermeasures should include preventive and managers and CEOs can mitigate is a security and risk responsive solutions, as well as internal and external measures, both for the short and the long term. the risk and avoid personal and management expert and an Companies should educate employees and stakeholders organisational consequences. international crisis and resilience on cyber safety practices. Other education programmes should address customer service mishaps. Bad online ■ For references, email [email protected] specialist reviews can include product, service, or personal treatment by employees, so customer service training should be a stark reminder to the entire workforce that is important to create positive situations with clients, rather than leaving them dissatisfied. Specific internal policies should also be established for frontline employees, empowering them with dedicated An often-overlooked Crisis Response Journal 16:2 | June 2021 49 positive aspect of company reputational risk is that it presents an opportunity to improve the company name Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com

Crisis management is people management Thomas Lahnthaler explains why we should focus on people rather than on situations when a crisis strikes Anisa Goshi T he global Covid-19 crisis has led to increased discussions people affected by it. Ultimately, crisis management is about about crisis management, preparedness and resilience. managing people, not situations or events. For some, this Crisis management is broadly considered as being might be semantics, yet framing can make all the difference. the ability and tactics required to handle unexpected and threatening events. While definitions differ, the Our realities differ, and while we sometimes use idea is similar: a situation occurs that presents a the same words to describe the same situations, we threat and needs to be managed. I have operated each have our own interpretations, connotations and within this understanding of crisis management connections. ‘Crisis’ is a label for a situation and is for most of my 15-year career. Or so I thought. often connected to the trigger (eg Covid), or a by- product of another related situation (eg financial). Over the past year, I have worked with and spoken to leaders, managers, stakeholders, friends and colleagues However, this doesn’t define what the crisis about their experiences during Covid-19, as crisis entails and what is meant by it. We are left with management became personal and moved into our our own interpretations and understanding of the homes as much as it played out on the global scale. situation, and these often differ fundamentally.  One single common denominator stood out: crisis management is about people above anything else.  Ask anyone to describe the opposite of a crisis in just one single word. You will get multiple, different My own personal and professional experiences and answers, probably illustrating something the person approach to managing crisis led me to the same conclusion. is missing, lacking and longing for during a crisis. Whenever crisis management became challenging, it was Naturally, they will work towards attaining this missing because the focus was on the situation rather than the phenomenon; this might leave you with a team or employees who are subconsciously working towards their 50 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj