CRJ Volume 17 Issue 1

human factors Enquiries Foundational Behavioural Relational Contextual (Structural) (Acting) (Interacting) (Thinking) Myths That regulations That the default world That the ‘softer’ That you can What are the myths guarantee safe is perfect and error- relational issues enable systemic we hold onto that outcomes free, and mistakes aren’t that important change without prevent us from are abnormal shifting deeply looking at issues held assumptions systemically? and beliefs Why don’t we learn? Our persistent failure Our obsession Our failure The lack of political What is the condition to address issues with blame and to rebalance intent and will holding the status in governance and blame avoidance power effectively to enable real quo in place accountability systemic change How could we enable Improve our Ensure fairly borne Tap diverse and Create safe spaces systemic change? capability to deal consequences, where distributed knowledge to engage with What is our biggest with complexity those that enabled and challenge opportunity to disrupt and ambiguity disasters (versus deeply held views the status quo? the victims) bear the consequences for remediation etc Table 1: Making the water visible and not to worry about which ones live and which ones die. ■ Question two: What myths are contributing to our When I say that the intent of the approach is to inability to learn? This is designed to reveal widely held (and mostly unquestioned) beliefs that hinder learning. enable change, it is change that will disrupt the status Hanging onto these myths justifies an over-reliance on the quo, which is about planting seeds and experimenting obvious responses that fail to address systemic issues; and discovering which seeds grow and which don’t. ■ Question three: Why don’t we learn? Here, through a process of sense-making, I propose the key factor holding This approach to making the water visible is existential in conditions in place and inhibiting systemic change. Rather nature – you will be changed, your beliefs and biases will (and than working to shift these factors, which are entrenched, should) be challenged and exposed, questioned and altered. my view is that considering them as ‘givens’ and working to enable change despite them will be more effective; and The Grenfell Model for Systemic Change (Figure 1) ■ Question four: How might we enable systemic change? Here, I is named in honour of the 72 lives lost during the fire, enquire and propose a key opportunity to disrupt the status quo. I provides a framework for making the water visible. created these after sitting with the messy kaleidoscope (for years) and observing what people were doing and the impact (or lack of Obscure elements impact) this was having. I expect these to alter and iterate with time. It looks through four lenses: Governing and operating As an illustration, Table 1 summarises some of my sense- frameworks, and obvious and obscure elements. Governing making, considering why our failure to learn makes sense. frameworks provide the architecture for decisions and actions, whereas operating frameworks guide how we function. The As a warning, this is a retrospective articulation that bears little obvious elements are the lenses we usually look through, such resemblance to the messy emergent process that took place over a as regulations or scrutiny mechanisms. Most analyses focus three-year period. As such, it will always be flawed. Making the solely on these, but this fails to create a holistic, systemic picture. water visible is never going to be a neat and tidy methodology. I The obscure elements include issues such as relationships, found myself immersed in a world that, at times, was emotionally power, narratives, culture, biases and issues of trust. and intellectually overwhelming. I had to learn to sit with the mess, to allow things to emerge, to dwell in ‘not knowing’ and to These lenses sit behind four quadrants. The foundational start over – again and again and again, until some new thread quadrant considers what elements are in place to prevent or thought helped me make sense of things in new ways. catastrophic events. The behavioural quadrant considers what mechanisms are in place to prevent and respond to catastrophic As Rebecca Solnit says in her book, Whose Story is This? Old events. The relational quadrant considers how relational issues Conflicts, New Chapters, my hope is that engaging with this kind of contribute to catastrophic events and our ability to learn. The approach may help us to: “Remake the world, and… do so mostly by contextual quadrant considers the contextual aspects that affect the accretion of small gestures and statements and the embracing of our ability to prevent and learn from catastrophic events. new visions of what can be and should be.” Within each of these quadrants, I considered four questions Author designed to give access to the complex factors, to facilitate sense- making and reveal new openings for acting (or seed planting). GILL KERNICK is an internationally experienced consultant ■ Question one: What are the known issues? This expands understanding and reveals issues that have persisted over time but specialising in safety, culture and leadership. Between 2011 have never improved, such as complex delivery mechanisms in local and central government that prevent clarity of accountability. This and 2014, she lived on the 21st floor of Grenfell Tower, London, entails more traditional research methodologies and then sitting with the picture this presents to enquire into the remaining questions; UK. Her book, Catastrophe and Systemic Change: Learning from the Grenfell Tower Fire and Other Disasters, was published in 2021 Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 51

Who wants to be a… Crisis manager? Andy Blackwell explores the challenges faced by crisis managers and the critical human factors at play during their selection, training and when managing crises C risis managers can face immense psychological relevant jobs and the organisation’s structure. It and physical pressures. Their desire to get things includes deciding on the duties and responsibilities of right and win the battle to restore normality can the job holder, the way the job is done, as well as what be overshadowed by a fear of failure and concerns support and resources the job holder needs.” Getting over damage to their personal reputations. the job design right will facilitate the recruitment and The role of a crisis manager can be a bit like being selection process and improve the chances of appointing a contestant on a game show: you are in the hot seat, a suitable candidate, as the job requirements and under the spotlight, facing challenging questions and accountabilities are clear to recruits and recruiters alike. tasks, as well as having to make quick and accurate Volunteers decisions under stressful conditions. This analogy would hardly make a good recruitment advertisement Many commercial organisations lack dedicated for the next generation of crisis managers, but it does crisis manager incident commanders in permanent highlight how important it is for human factors to be roles, relying instead on volunteers from across the considered right from the initial recruitment, selection business to be trained and mentored to provide and training stages, through to performance in the leadership in times of crisis. The fact that they are role and continuous professional development.   volunteers should not diminish the need to apply One common error that organisations make when the same selection diligence as for a new employee selecting crisis managers is to assume that high in any challenging and high-pressure role. performance in the potential candidate’s own areas The board has a duty of care to all employees and of expertise means that they will be able to perform those in the highly charged roles of crisis leadership just as well in the high-stress environment of crisis and management can be particularly vulnerable to management. This is not only risky for the individual, psychological trauma, so the importance of ensuring but the organisation too, as the leadership skills required the best people for the job cannot be overstated. don’t necessarily transfer across, and the individual’s Other human factors, such as fear of failure, also create psychological makeup challenges when it may indicate that a The role of a crisis manager can comes to recruitment high-stress, highly and selection. pressured role is be a bit like being a contestant on Volunteers for such not for them. Dr roles are often few and Tony Jaques (see a game show: you are in the hot far between, owing to a belief that being seen p92) highlights this seat, under the spotlight, facing to fail when under the dilemma in his article for the Chartered challenging questions and tasks spotlight, as in the Management Institute case of the game show titled How Covid-19 contestant, could result Changed Crisis Management, in which he says: “The in personal embarrassment. So, why take the chance? reality is while senior managers and leaders may be The corporate game also carries greater risks in expert at running an organisation, very few have built the event of the crisis manager’s perceived failure by their career on handling crises – and it’s an experience top management, such as potential damage to future most would rather avoid. Yet a crisis or major public career opportunities, or personal reputations. issue can be one of the most challenging and important While corporate leaders are often keen to promote their moments in the life of a professional manager.” organisation’s positive cultures publicly, the inside story This challenge provides us with our first human can be very difficult, with a just culture rapidly turning factors opportunity: getting the job design for our into a blame game when things do not go as planned. crisis managers correct. The Chartered Institute In his book, Guidance from The Greatest, What the of Personnel Development describes job design, or World War Two Generation can teach us about how we live redesign, as a: “Process of determining job roles and our lives, Gavin Mortimer, a leading authority on WWII what a job involves, as well as how it relates to other special forces, details 12 qualities that can improve 52 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

human factors our individual character and our collective approach ■ Decide with speed over precision: The need for a Denis | Adobe to life. While the book is written for the community simple, scalable framework for rapid decision-making Stock at large, the qualities it describes are aligned with the is critical. Focus on the few things that matter most; Blitz spirit and the ‘Keep Calm and Carry On’ style of ■ Adapt boldly: Strong leaders get ahead of changing leadership that crisis managers need in order to deal circumstances. Seek input and information from diverse with modern day crises, and to motivate and lead the sources and bring in outside expertise when needed. crisis management team. These qualities are stoicism, Don’t be afraid to admit what you don’t know; fellowship, ingenuity, liberality, selflessness, courage, ■ Deliver reliably: The best leaders take personal vitality, integrity, duty, self-discipline, humour and ownership in a crisis, even though many challenges forgiveness. This extensive list provides useful insights and factors lie outside their control. They align team to those involved in job design, job analysis assessing focus, establish new metrics to monitor performance job quality, the selection of crisis managers and the and create a culture of accountability; and preparation of their training and development plans. ■ Engage for impact: In times of crisis, no job is more important than taking care of your team. In addition to the personal qualities sought in crisis Effective leaders are understanding of their team’s managers/incident commanders, there are desired circumstances and distractions, but they find ways leadership behaviours. An article featured in Harvard to engage and motivate, clearly and thoroughly Business Review entitled Four Behaviors That Help Leaders communicating important new goals and information. Manage a Crisis, written by Nichols, Chatterjee Hayden and Trendler, discusses the key behaviours that help I now turn to some of the human factors that affect leaders manage a crisis. These are summarised as follows: decision-making in high stress situations. Valuable 53

insights into this topic come from the research into Quarterly. Three main sources of stress were highlighted. First, we have the nature of the crisis and the decision making with fire commanders across the UK, team’s action or inaction in managing it, which conducted by Dr Cohen-Hatton, Chief Fire Officer, can result in shock, confusion, and anger. West Sussex Fire and Rescue Service and author of The heat of the moment – life and death decision-making from a Second, a lack of experience in dealing with such firefighter. Two types of decision-making were identified: events, leading to feelings of uncertainty about the appropriateness of responses. This aligns with my earlier Analytical, thoughtful considered decisions based on point raised by Dr Jaques about the lack of experience many senior managers and leaders have in handling crises. gathering information, evaluating options and enacting a Lastly, managing the expectations of the various plan, so these decisions were rational and calculated; and stakeholders to re-establish control, safety and confidence in the organisation is another source of stress. While corporate leaders are often keen to promote their Although it is intended for mental health trusts, organisation’s positive cultures Organisational Wellbeing During the Covid-19 Pandemic: publicly, the inside story can be A Guidance Document written by the Royal College of very difficult, with a just culture Psychiatrists, provides relevant information likely to rapidly turning into a blame game be of benefit to any organisation, not just in response to the pandemic, but for other crises. The document Crystaleye Studio intuitive decisions based on fire commanders’ previous covers 12 key recommendations including the | Adobe Stock following, which are more generic and transferable: experiences and gut instincts. The research revealed ● Recognise that the excessive anxiety affects functioning and the ability to think at every level of the organisation; that analytical decisions only occurred 20 per cent of the ● Aim to establish a culture of learning from experience when things go wrong and avoid blame. It is an unfolding time, with 80 per cent being instinctive gut decisions. process and decisions will be made that will need revision; ● Maintain differentiation of staff roles as much Crisis managers and leadership teams are at risk of as possible and avoid terms such as ‘non-essential duties’ that can demoralise staff. All staff have suffering severe stress in the aftermath of crises and valuable expertise and experience to make a helpful contribution at different stages of the crisis; other major disruptive events. This finding is highlighted ● Encourage all staff to be mindful of their own in Doepel’s article, Crisis management: the psychological dimension, which was published in Industrial Crisis 54 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

human factors internal states, fear and threat trigger reactions based Organisations using their established day to day platforms upon previous experiences of trauma and loss; for crisis response are less exposed than those with a ● Recognise that all staff will have vulnerabilities dedicated platform that crisis responders only get to use and blind spots that affect their functioning once or twice a year. Time lost in managing the initial at work, so offer support; and phases of an incident can be the difference between the ● Be kind to each other. Functioning during a crisis event being managed or its development into a full-blown calls for unity. Increased stress will exacerbate pre- crisis. When time is of the essence, the last thing you existing tensions in any organisation. Pre-existing want is your crisis team trying to manage the intricacies dilemmas can be addressed once the crisis is over. of a complex incident/crisis management system they are unfamiliar with. Complexity is a hidden threat. In crisis room activations and crisis management exercises, it is not unusual to see participants spending Far from a game more time trying to grapple with the technology than getting to grips with managing the crisis. Overly In some ways, the human factors involved in being a complicated systems and processes will quickly overwhelm game show contestant and those applicable to crisis the team and compromise effective decision-making management are similar, but with lives and livelihoods if the team is unable to obtain a clear organisational at stake, crisis management is far from a game and view of the latest inputs and updates. Familiar, simple losing is not an option; make the wrong decisions systems in everyday use generally work better than and untoward consequences will surely follow, along platforms used solely during a crisis, which are quickly with intense scrutiny from some of the most learned forgotten about when the incident is over. The ability in our society. Understanding human factors across of an operator to learn and retain information about the whole crisis management spectrum is key. specialist systems is challenged by limited usage, which fails to embed it into the operator’s muscle memory. Organisations demand a great deal from their crisis managers, and it is important that those selected Some recommendations follow. for the role are resilient, have the required qualities ■ Select, train and develop for success: As previously and can demonstrate the necessary behaviours. discussed, skilled business leaders cannot always transfer their traditional knowledge into the skills required for Selecting the right people for leadership roles in crisis the agile and safe management of crises. The challenge management can have a huge effect on an organisation’s lack of experience brings can be managed by intense ability to deal with crises effectively and recover battle-hardening; interactive and immersive training safely from them. Using familiar systems and keeping courses and exercises under realistic conditions mirroring emergency plans simple will reduce the risk of them the level of pressure and generating the type of stress being regarded as a hindrance rather than an aid. that would be experienced in actual ‘battles’ (crises). Aspects of gamification can help organisations create Many airport rescue and fire services use this challenging, yet safe, play areas for training and exercising type of training for their incident commanders, crisis managers and incident commanders, enabling them and gamification is already helping organisations to become battle-hardened, address experience shortfalls understand how their people make decisions in and improve their intuitive decision-making capability. complex, ambiguous environments fraught with uncertainty. Regular training and exercising help The time and resources spent selecting, training to develop intuitive decision-making skills. and supporting incident commanders and other crisis managers are a prudent corporate investment. Another opportunity for crisis managers to build experience is by learning lessons from previous References incidents and crises managed by your own organisation, along with others that are relevant to your situation. ■ Nichols C, Chatterjee Hayden S, Trendler C: 4 Behaviors That Help Inquiry reports are a rich source of information. Leaders Manage a Crisis, Harvard Business Review, hbr.org; ■ Cohen-Hatton S (2019): The heat of the moment, Life and death Failing to invest appropriately in the areas of selection, decision making from a firefighter, Doubleday; training and development creates significant exposure ■ Mitroff I, Anagnos G (2001): Managing Crises Before They for the organisation and are aspects that would be Happen, Amacom; scrutinised closely in any formal inquiry should an ■ Mortimer G (2021): Guidance From The Greatest, Constable; adverse event involving fatalities or major injuries occur; ■ Chartered Institute of Personnel Development (CIPD) Factsheet ■ Understand the human factors: Use established – Job Design, cipd.co.uk; research to help understand how people involved ■ Jaques Dr T: Long read: How Covid-19 changed crisis in crises are likely to behave – the ‘human factors’. management, Chartered Management Institute, managers.org.uk; This is crucial when creating and developing ■ Doepel DG (1991): Crisis management: the psychological incident response and crisis management plans. dimension, Industrial Crisis Quarterly, 5(3), 177–188, jstor.org; ■ Organisational Wellbeing During the Covid-19 Pandemic: A The research should cover all key stakeholders, Guidance Document, rcpsych.ac.uk; from the first responders to those managing the ■ Risk decision-makers are investing in gamification: What that crisis. Emergency plans should focus on the people Means and Why you Should too, riskandinsurance.com they might affect, as well as the organisation’s facilities, assets, systems and services; and Author ■ Keep things simple: Overly complex emergency plans and incident management systems can compromise ANDY BLACKWELL is the former Head of Security crisis management, particularly in stressful situations where they cannot be easily understood or operated. and Resilience at Virgin Atlantic and is now an independent security and resilience consultant. He is a Member of the CRJ’s Advisory Panel Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 55

Wellbeing: Successful interventions While literally tearing down walls to accommodate a surge of Covid patients, the management at the Anaesthesia and Intensive Care Clinic at Södertälje hospital in Sweden adopted a combined approach for resilience, robustness and maintaining staff’s physical and mental ability to function at individual and group level. Here, our authors build on the concepts introduced in CRJ 16:4 B y employing a methodology for cross-training, and psychological operations in our field security the clinic could access a blend of military/field programmes and crime prevention projects on behalf security experience of resilience and science of municipalities in Sweden. A key success factor in the tailored as a toolbox for the health sector. Södertälje model lies in actively looking for similarities rather than differences when developing solutions. In the initial stages there was a need for crisis management, but soon enough the challenge and We quickly established a conceptual understanding narrative matured. The main issue was performance of Håkan’s perception of the problem. His military under pressure over an uncertain and prolonged period background meant he not only had the ability to assess of time. This required a different mindset and there was a situation from a tactical perspective, but we also had a shift towards pre-emptive interventions to retain staff. a joint vocabulary. Together, we drilled down through the complexities to find the core challenges and needs – The Covid intensive care unit (ICU) at Södertälje similarities and analogies – from operating in conflict and hospital made structured and proactive psychosocial post-conflict zones. We identified cues together, enabling welfare an integral part of its pandemic response. Long- us to identify patterns and discuss prototype solutions. term health and wellbeing of staff were made matters of strategic importance. This translated into tactical Södertälje Hospital provides emergency and hospital preventive measures to identify and reduce stress care for 233,000 inhabitants in the greater Stockholm issues at the earliest stage possible. The strategic goal region. Initially, the hospital had a total of three to four to preserve the force was allowed to imbue decision- ICU level two beds and no intermediate care. Covid-19 making. As Bengt Cederlund, MD and Chief Medical infected patients are expected to be treated at their Officer at Södertälje Hospital, said: “It was used local hospital. A socioeconomic structure susceptible to navigate in the uncharted waters that tested all to rapid virus spread made the situation in Södertälje protocol and stretched all levels in the organisation.” more troublesome. Over the course of three weeks, staff numbers were increased from 180 to 320. Half of the Staff in transfer Transferring methodologies recruits had no medical training and needed to be following a shift trained rapidly. ICU capacity rose to a total of 17 three at the Södertälje After two years of monitoring psychosocial wellbeing and to four level ICU beds during the pandemic’s first peak. hospital covid-ICU mental – as well as physical – health of the clinic’s staff Staffan Löwstedt | and management, the results indicate that approximately It was clear that a traditional training set-up was out of Svenska Dagbladet around 30 per cent are in the ‘risk’ zone of mental health the question. Our shared understanding that grew into a issues. In addition, several individuals have developed mission statement was formulated: “We need to maintain medical conditions that can be attributed to prolonged high functional capacity (stridsvärde) among the staff stress, such as type 2 diabetes and hypertension. until we can rest. We don’t know when that will be. The train has already left the station and we’ll have to grease This article is an in-depth look based on the overview the engine’s moving parts while travelling at full speed.” presented in the December 2021 issue of the CRJ. We start by looking back on the situation as it emerged. We built our model on three pillars: Capacity building organisational endurance and leadership; In March 2020, Managing Director of Anaesthesia stress management and psychosocial environment; and Intensive Care in Södertälje Hospital Stockholm, and overlapping immediate interventions. Sweden Håkan Kalzén MD, PhD, called on Metis Services, experts in human security. It was clear from the Four main elements set the Södertälje clinic apart. First, start that the Covid-19 pandemic was a novel situation, it could tap into the experience and transfer knowledge requiring innovative thinking. At Metis, we believe in from other sectors, such as military and academic the transfer of methodology from one context to another, research into decision-making and performance under having successfully used and incorporated insights pressure. Second, it made the move from being reactive and tactics from counterterrorism, counterinsurgency to pre-emptive. Third, the interventions integrated 56 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

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Maridav | Adobe Stock organisational endurance with psychosocial environment Positive or negative, they need to be understood to be mutually reinforcing. And finally, we can add and are a factor in operational risk management. documentation, monitoring and measuring the impact of stress from the onset of the pandemic and our involvement. Stress is understood along a stress continuum and not all stress is harmful. Not tending to negative impact factors We approached the Södertälje assignment as a team is harmful, but even this is not dangerous as long as we of three. Johan from Metis provided thought leadership, ensure recovery. The military perspective also presents his experience in building resilient organisations with a realistic view on casualties; some can be avoided, but capacity for crisis response and a methodology for some will occur. We need a mindset that prepares us for cross-training and transfer of skills along the strategic- this. To maintain a cohesive force ready for deployment, tactical nexus. Niclas, a military psychologist and a COSC programme aims to prevent, identify and PhD candidate on extreme stress, contributed with manage impacts of combat and operational stress and his knowledge of stress reactions and management. promote wellbeing among troops and their families. Magdalena brought knowledge in organisational risk mitigation, crisis communication and crisis management. In Sweden, the concept of ‘stridsvärde’ has a long She also played an integral role in forging the overlap, history (CRJ 16:4) and indicates capacity to perform a anchoring and building rapport for the model. specific task, including both physical and psychological abilities. Stridsvärde is a gradient for functional or combat Looking at the codified approach, one of the pillars is fitness monitored at individual and group level. It is the scientific subject matter expertise and interventions dynamic, depending on recovery, preparation, experience on mental health, stress and endurance. Here, we and expectations. Keeping track of stridsvärde helps to combined military experience and field security and inform a leader if there is the capacity to take on a task strategies with academic research and tools. and succeed (high stridsvärde), or if we risk failure and are putting too much pressure on personnel (low stridsvärde). Combat and Operational Stress Control (COSC), In the organisation, there is a vertical line of responsibility as developed by the US Marine Corps, comprises running top-down to be informed and assume policy and methods to identify and address responsibility, and bottom-up to report status. It also operational stress issues. Combat stress reactions runs horizontally between peers to listen, boost and act in can be either positive and adaptive, or negative; the order to maintain the individual and unit’s stridsvärde. latter resulting in distress and loss of functioning. 58 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

human factors Work-related stress should no longer be treated acknowledged stress and sent a very clear signal that: “We as a matter of simply too much to do and too little care, we’re acting, we’re in this together and we can all time to get the job done. The amount of information impact our situation.” Developments were monitored we are exposed to, constant availability, along with with weekly follow-ups of impact factors, enabling increased cognitive and emotional load, constitute management to take intelligence-based decisions on how additive stress (many stressors at the same time) and/ to lead under pressure and informing them as to whether or cumulative stress (building up over time). an intervention worked or not. These were phased to avoid – rather than respond – to counselling and sick-leave Different types of stress can appear in combinations. needs and could be designed with a specific NIF in mind. Low-intensity, everyday stressors wear and tear over time and lower the threshold for intense or acute stress. Drawing on our findings from the participatory Intense or acute stress can become traumatic if their load observations and the monitoring, we also supersedes an individual’s resources to manage them. sought to address any inhibiting factors. The understanding that stress is present all the time informed our model, but such needs are often largely An immediate effect of introducing the tool was that ignored or beyond the realms of assistance provided it gave the organisation the terminology, training and by an employer. However, the problem arises when occasion to create awareness and talk about stress. low-level stressors accumulate, but the situation can be managed successfully when stress is balanced and Stress can be tackled by learning to recognise a recovery administered. Stress is often taught to be closely stress reaction, what causes it and how to handle associated with flight or fight, or play-dead scenarios; it. It made a difference for hospital staff to be able so activities to counter stress are focused upon and only to understand the stress continuum and be able to triggered post factum when the harm is already done. distinguish between ‘fear of fear’ and what is actually hazardous, in order to address strong initial fears about We knew from the onset of the pandemic that the virus. Working closely with strategic support on individuals and functions at the hospital were impaired information sharing and stress management methods, by a negative balance and that the health sector is we provided direct support to management and indirect particularly short-staffed and fraught with sick leave. support to staff, to address identified problem areas. In a holistic response, at any given time or in any We employed psychoeducation to address specific organisation, there will be a significant number themes such as interpersonal conflict and to ease the of individuals with unique combinations of stress, transfer of information, access to treatment, support vulnerabilities and limitations regarding accessibility in self-help and self-care, and to offer a time and of methods and resources to deal with them. safe place to express frustrations constructively. Communication & camaraderie Building on the experience from military and overseas humanitarian missions, we introduced a package to Considering the resource-balance model, we acted to prepare staff and their families for the reactions and stimulate the ability of managers and staff to exercise: stressors that may surface when on leave or at the end of Impact; clear communication; mindset about the situation; an assignment. After the first wave in the summer when and camaraderie. These are the types of resources in society was bursting to go back to normal, we recognised stress-reducing leadership that have a positive balance a pattern of pressure building up, so we invited all staff vis-á-vis demands that are placed on us. Stimulating daily to discuss their expectations and any apprehensions. uplifts can compensate for daily hazards. Monitoring is also important to identify those in need of support and In addition to moral stress and worries over patient to assume responsibility for psychosocial wellbeing. care owing to understaffing, stress about summer leave was high, which caused tension within units, between Starting in April 2020, we introduced weekly different professional groups in the hospital and agitation assessments to monitor the load on staff using the psychosocial work environment leadership tool (PWELT) A structured methodology of: to collect, analyse and provide management with a dashboard to get a temperature check and visualisation Actively building rapport of staff conditions and impact on critical functions. It allows for a comparison between units, flagging those Sizing up/sense-making of the situation – whose low scores show a negative balance and internal creating an immediate action plan differences that could potentially cause strain or conflict. Participatory observation – holistic perspective Sensors among staff collect ratings of demand and and deeper understanding resource balance and the impact of relevant stressors. The negative impact factors (NIFs) we applied were: Applying the Pareto Principle and a sense of urgency – Workload; conceptual (regulations, routines, procedures, systematic, calming and avoiding being a digression and systems); moral (mood and psychosocial environment); emotional load; and miscellaneous. Monitoring NIFs Going tactical – applying a tactical approach for strategic effect helps to avoid the common pitfall of measuring stress but failing to identify psychosocial hazards – ie the stressors Presence mid-action and where the threat is coming from. Another use of the tool is to observe changes over time that are too small to Maintenance of stridsvärde being mandatory and a standing order stand out, but that indicate trends and opportunities to follow up on interventions. It is also used to respond to Table 1: Principles of the concept developed for the clinic hazards as soon they appear. Importantly, management Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 59

towards management. With the finishing line now being mandatory rest regulations. Other groups nurtured a moved and much needed and deserved breaks in jeopardy, macho climate of no rest and mystical elitism that was questions from families about holiday bookings were assumed to protect them from fatigue and burnout. mounting. So too were anticipations about coming home; When we implemented a routine, a method or made some created by staff themselves and others by their other adjustments, we soon found that hospital staff, families. Many had been working 12-hour shifts for weeks like most people, let go of the remedy as soon as the on end. For some, going on holiday felt like the last push problem was no longer acute. This is not uncommon. The over the cliff, with comments such as: “All I want to do physiotherapist’s dilemma occurs when a patient stops is crash in bed,” “I’m drained, don’t touch me and don’t doing rehab exercises or reverts to old habits when the ask anything of me,” and, “No-one understands we’ve pain is lessened, but before the injury has healed, leading been in a warzone; they’ve been out in the sun playing.” the patient to think that the rehab has not worked and To create awareness of discrepancies in expectations, is therefore not worth pursuing. The health profession to make staff aware that they might encounter stress is well aware of the challenge with patients who stop reactions rather than relief going on holiday and to taking their medicine prematurely. However, it was help with feelings of guilt about not enjoying themselves imperative to explain and repeatedly create awareness or being able to rest, we produced a leaflet from around the needs and methods to manage stress and hospital management aimed at family members. recovery. We needed to address organisational culture The inclination to relativise and downplay symptoms and introduce supporting practices like tactical after- of stress was strong. At the same time, compassion action reviews and checking stridsvärde to remind people fatigue was setting in. We addressed this with a mixture of the responsibilities to themselves and their peers. of reading the culture and climate of the particular It was crucial – using principles, transferable evidence- profession or unit and by making use of parallels to based methods and science – to anchor strategy and other fields where the expectation of being ‘fit-for-fight’ methods with the entire staff; a group that is highly is explicit. A stark contrast was made by comparing skilled and professionally trained to review treatments staff’s awareness and levels of self-care with those of critically and whose members were under intense truck drivers, pilots and soldiers who view it as a matter pressure to respond to various divergent demands. To of professionalism and are not only obliged, but are make it work, Håkan asked us to maintain a presence also provided with the means, to ensure they are fully to remind and mentor staff. This is even more necessary operational and to monitor suboptimal conditions. in a civilian organisation that works within a less Management struggled to tend to tasks related to command-based structure, to emphasise that recovery strategic leadership (tasks that were invisible to the has to be requisitioned and followed up intimately. staff) and go home for the night; a single person often What was, and still is, needed is recovery on a strategic tried to be available for three shifts. There was a strong level, addressing not only the imminent need for rest element of solidarity among the nurses that made and recuperation, but also the rebuilding of individual them neglect stress-related issues or stopped them from and organisational capacity. At the levels of exhaustion alerting their peers and management. Out of solidarity, most ICU-staff were experiencing, merely removing some nurses and, in some cases, a tight unit of doctors, the stressors or decreasing the workload are not enough. Figure 1 would step in for others in a way that violated all Simply going back to the pre-pandemic workload will not suffice. A more active approach to recuperation to create a positive balance at individual and organisational levels is needed. Strategic recovery is not the sole Capacity building, Stress responsibility of the individual. The organisational management employer needs to ensure that it endurance and and psychosocial can – and will – be done. Resources leadership environment are finite, yet the insight and input regarding recovery must be reflected in the hospital’s strategic resource management. To keep staff safe and sound is a moral obligation Overlapping immediate interventions as well as an investment that pays off and avoids the costs of rental Reading of the situation Measuring negative impact factors nurses and doctors, sick leave and Creating a ‘shared consciousness’ resources spent on introducing new staff instead of on ‘production’. At Common operational picture Psychoeducation Södertälje, this eventually fed into a policy and agreements with other Crossover training toolbox for acute and cumulative stress larger hospitals, for example, to Strategies and principles for prolonged strain and recovery transfer patients to another ICU. In anticipation of a new wave, mental health screening was arranged in mid-September, 2020. The goals were to make 60 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

human factors individuals aware of their level of risk and reflect upon When asked to reflect on the preliminary results their individual structures for support, and to make and the dedicated effort to maintain functional the hospital aware of how affected staff were after fitness, Håkan offered four take-aways: more than seven months of pandemic response. ● It is possible to implement tools used in a different context. It is most likely that doing A total of 151 people, including management, were so saved this ICU from collapse during the screened using a trio of clinical forms to assess the challenge of the first pandemic wave in 2020; impact of stress on an individual level. We used: The ● Data showed that stridvärde was kept to a hospital anxiety and depression (HAD) scale; post higher degree than in neighbouring hospitals; traumatic stress disorder (PTSD); and the Shirom- ● Documentation of methods used makes it Melemed Burnout Measure (SMBM). The screening used possible to learn and implement the codified external professional staff and representatives from the approach elsewhere in the future; and human resources department were present and ready ● Even though data on our stridsvärde was to refer staff members directly to professional care. presented to authorities, new demands were forced upon the organisation, despite awareness Intense stress reactions that recovery was badly needed. Our findings indicate that one-third of the staff needed The data collected seems to indicate that the damage support in some way, either with stress-mitigation caused to mental health is on a par with that of natural strategies, work-life balance, recovery or clinical support. In this group, 20 per cent were at risk and 10 per cent The inclination to downplay showed symptoms at a clinical level. Almost all of those stress symptoms was strong. who scored high experienced anxiety. Only a few showed At the same time, compassion signs of depression and none indicated PTSD or burnout. fatigue was setting in Although stress reactions may be extremely intense, hazards; on average 30 per cent experience symptoms after they can be normal, given the situation and exposure. the event. This was to be expected and it may be that the We cannot fully exclude that a portion of these adequate outcome was inevitable. Given Södertälje’s catchment area, responses feature in the screening. However, in order its size and staff numbers, at a time when all hospitals to provide adequate support and to avoid diagnosing were left to fend for themselves, the expectation was that or scaring the larger group into thinking that they are this ICU would be hit particularly hard. It was not. experiencing something that is harmful or signs of poor mental health, it is important to distinguish between what There is no way of knowing what damage was prevented. constitutes an adequate response and what does not. The difference we can point to however, is that in the case of Södertälje, the effect on staff was identified and The screenings were a key component to identify individuals could be referred to adequate support early on. individuals in need, barriers to treatment and We also see a correlation in staff retention figures being understand the relevance of differentiated recovery. at an all-time high relative to the clinic’s pre-pandemic figures and those of other clinics. Perceptions that the When asked, very few of those at-risk or with clinical- organisation is looking out for the individual and unit, as level symptoms had taken part in any of the activities compared to experiencing it as neutral or even hostile, or recourses provided. From this, we can infer that the have a positive and immediate effect on alleviating stress. threshold of recognising the need for support is so high that it prevents staff from seeking help based on how they Our system of monitoring and following up personnel feel. There was also a tendency for staff to normalise their sent an unequivocal message to the entire organisation own reactions. The screenings show that a structured that staff wellbeing is a priority. And this makes a way to assess staff individually was needed to identify and significant difference. prompt active behaviour with regard to supportive needs. Authors Medical screening of physical health was arranged 15 months after the first wave, as staff started to feel MAGDALENA R LIND, Co-Founder of Metis Services AB. An that their physical health had taken a heavy toll. expert in human security, crisis management and resilience, From the 155 people screened, 25 per cent showed she is also co-author of Come Back Alive, a handbook for abnormal blood-lab findings that needed addressing. personal security in high-risk contexts We discovered five cases of hypertension, four thyroid JOHAN ROBERTSSON LIND, Co-Founder of Metis Services, malfunctions and three type 2 diabetes. All members senior expert in field security, adviser in capacity building of staff were offered screening. The 25 people who organisational risk mitigation and resilience and co-author of did not participate already had an established Come Back Alive contact with a GP, owing to a medical condition. NICLAS WISÉN, Operational Psychologist, PhD researcher at Karolinska Institutet in military psychology and stress, Figures relating to staff retention have, surprisingly, Founder of PWELT AB been on a par with the two years prior to the pandemic. HÅKAN KALZÉN, MD PhD EDIC, Medical Director of However, Södertälje experienced a peak in resignations Anaesthesia and Intensive Care department, Södertälje among anaesthesia nurses occurring recently, 1.5 years Hospital, Sweden into the pandemic. This correlates to a much lower than expected yearly salary increase, a disappointment after having been conscripted to work at the Covid-ICU. In particular, we noted that according to the preliminary data, the clinic has not seen an increase in long-term sick leave owing to burnout. This stands out in comparison with other neighbouring hospitals. Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 61

The issues of burnout & organisational resilience Burnout is a strategic problem. It needs to be addressed as a strategic risk and your organisation is only as resilient as the individuals within it, says Mike Rennie, in a call for policy and practice to be developed so that the effects of burnout can be mitigated for both individuals and organisations I drafted this article on January 31 which, according to health services from being overwhelmed, yet the extra the morning’s Telegraph newspaper, is “quitters’ day”. load on a service which, in places, was already operating The piece explored why people have joined the ‘great at its limit, was always going to have an impact on staff. resignation’, discussing factors such as changing work practices during the pandemic, better understanding The UK Fire Service National Operational Guidance of personal wellbeing and issues surrounding improved notes in its discussion of stress: “Even one team member mental health. It boiled down to the fact that people are who is affected in a negative way can be enough to affect the way a team functions.” The problem for the NHS becoming aware that they are suffering from burnout. and other first response organisations was that it wasn’t just one team member who was dealing with burnout. Burnout isn’t a new phenomenon. In 2019, before the The impact of frontline services was highlighted pandemic, the WHO defined burnout as an occupational in an April 2020 report published by the charity MIND, showing the effects not only on the NHS, but phenomenon. In doing so, it recognised that although also on other services. Symptoms ranged from lack of emotional engagement to heightened levels of frustration not a medical condition per se, burnout was a factor in and negativity, leading to absenteeism, reduced effectiveness and productivity. Research around the influencing health status and individuals’ engagement same time was concerning, with between 69 and 90 per cent of emergency service staff reporting that their with health services, specifically resulting from chronic mental health deteriorated during the pandemic. workplace stress. Chronic stress can cause long-term Over the last two years, individuals have had to cope with experiences directly related to Covid-19, such as health issues such as anxiety, insomnia and high moral injury (guilt, shame, disgust or anger when the situation clashes strongly with someone’s moral or ethical blood pressure. It tends to be a response to persistent, code), ill health and bereavement. Many have also dealt with secondary stressors, including financial difficulties, poorly managed pressures, usually over a prolonged relationship problems and altered working conditions. period. Symptoms of burnout include feeling tired and Evidence submitted to the House of Commons Health and Social Care Committee for its report on Workforce drained, with many people feeling overwhelmed. They burnout and resilience in the NHS and social care, noted that 92 per cent of NHS trusts reported concerns often become cynical and detached, feeling trapped about staff wellbeing and burnout from the pandemic, with around 44 per cent of staff feeling unwell owing and alone. This can lead to issues around professional to work-related stress in the previous 12 months. efficacy and diminished workplace performance. It’s not just the UK. In December 2021, the Journal of General Internal Medicine surveyed more than 500 The advent of the doctors, nurses and first responders at the University of Pennsylvania Hospital in the US and found Organisations could Covid pandemic has that 15 per cent said it was ‘not at all likely’ they focused awareness on would still work in the field in five to ten years. spiral into decline if wellbeing and mental If essential staff are leaving their profession owing to health, as seen in burnout, organisations could fall into a spiral of decline. One of the main causes of burnout is understaffing. As essential staff leave the early days of the individuals try to cover for staff who are ill or have because of burnout first lockdown with left their jobs, they in turn become at risk of burnout concern over how and may start questioning their efficacy in their roles. people would cope with isolation and working from home. Wellbeing practitioners published guidance and advice online, and articles appeared in the press. Organisations such as the British Psychological Society and The Royal College of Psychiatrists in the UK created online guides and coping tools. Although burnout in the commercial sector was in some ways the stereotype, the National Health Service (NHS) was, in particular, a focus of concern. The heightened workload, the possibility of the service being overwhelmed and the effect of dealing with the increase in patient numbers, were seen as significant threats to staff wellbeing. The UK’s lockdown was designed to protect 62 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

human factors Added to the increased risk of trauma and PTSD in Author Oleksandra Bez many first responder roles, it is easy to see why people Verkha | 123rf may take early retirement or change profession to DR MIKE RENNIE is Chartered Psychologist and a safeguard their wellbeing. It would be interesting to Senior Lecturer at the Royal Military Academy research how the perception of burnout risk affects Sandhurst, UK, secretary of the Defence and recruitment and retention across the sector. I Security Psychology Section of the British would speculate that very quickly we would see Psychological Society and a Fellow of the Institute of Civil that the resilience of individuals starts to affect Protection and Emergency Management. He volunteers with that of the organisation as people move away Berkshire Lowland Search and Rescue, where he is a TRiM from careers perceived as causing burnout. Manager and Mental Health First Aid Instructor Covid’s impact is ongoing and society is adapting to a new normal, which is likely to include a degree of fear, uncertainty and loss of control. The effects of pressures that workers in all sectors have experienced during Covid-19 will probably continue over the short to medium term and are not likely to end simply because lockdowns are no longer in place. Many issues affect mental health and the incidence of burnout. Even without the pandemic, services are stretched, with limited resources. Where there are mechanisms to support the wellbeing of staff, there is still uneven provision, not helped by the lack of clarity as to what constitutes best practice. Evidence to support the effectiveness of interventions is lacking and funding is often not forthcoming. Research by King’s College London showed a lack of engagement by leaders and little sharing of knowledge and best practice. Beware conflation Most of the strategies in place in organisations (where they have them; 25 per cent said they hadn’t) seem to focus on the individual being aware that they need some help and using tools such as resilience training, proactively engaging through wellbeing screening, or the use of mental health first aiders in the workplace, trauma risk management (TRiM) or other embedded welfare services. It is often thought that training in mental health awareness will solve the problem, but this doesn’t address the specific problem of burnout. One of the criticisms of how mental wellbeing is dealt with is that the focus is mostly on dealing with PTSD to the exclusion of other areas, including burnout. In research literature, there are examples where PTSD and burnout are conflated. Even more damning is the fact that whole populations – even within the emergency response community, including volunteers and call centre staff – are routinely ignored. Burnout is a strategic problem; it must be addressed as a strategic risk. Policy and practice should be developed, using evidence so that the effects of burnout can be mitigated for both the individual and the organisation. Leaders should develop their own knowledge and that of their staff. Research needs to be funded so that a strategy with measurable outcomes can be developed. Barriers to implementation must be identified and mitigated against. Obviously, this requires buy-in from key leaders within the organisation to instigate a cultural change. Information will need to be shared and training packages created. This is not a one-off effort, but a continuous process. By taking a proactive, strategic view of burnout, organisations will become more resilient, staff will be more effective and crisis response will be enhanced. Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 63

Living with shortages in the post-Covid world As the post-Covid world takes shape, it is time to think about the configuration of tomorrow’s supply chains. We will probably have to learn to live with shortages, tolerating long delivery times that were considered unacceptable just a few months ago, as Gilles Paché explains I n the spring of 2020, the world was shaken by a major to end soon. One could argue that structural fragility pandemic with dramatic economic effects, and if Europe will survive in the post-Covid world, as evidenced by Sea and Sun | and North America escaped the collapse, it was thanks to shortages in supply chains as diverse as the electronics Adobe Stock huge political interventions not seen since WWII. In early industry, fast food and e-commerce. In CRJ 15.2, I 2022, with the wave of infection linked to the Omicron anticipated that the economic recovery was likely to variant, the situation has still not stabilised. Worse come up against a lasting blockage in supply chains still, many observers point out that the vulnerability of owing to a lack of sufficient supplies of the raw materials, developed economies to global sourcing remains a concern. components and sub-assemblies needed to produce finished products; a blockage linked to Jay Forrester’s In a prescient article published by the Harvard Business famous ‘bullwhip effect’. It seems that the situation in Review in February 2020, the authors drew attention to many European countries confirms this premonition. the destructive effect of Covid-19 on international supply What lesson can we learn from this? Undoubtedly, that chain organisation. They noted that Fiat Chrysler and we will have to learn to live with recurrent shortages and Hyundai announced at the start of the pandemic that they their consequences, in terms of both price and time. were suspending production owing to a lack of parts and components from China. The whole of 2020, and then The history of supply chains over the last 30 years or so 2021, thus saw the threat of a paralysis of global value is closely linked to a continuous search for agility based chains, which had been built up over three decades. on the implementation of just-in-time systems, mainly aimed at minimising stocks to increase company profits While the fragility of Western economies in the context and shareholder income. The seminal work of Martin of globalisation has been identified since the Covid Christopher has emphasised this point sufficiently over the crisis, few analyses have recognised that it is not going 64 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

supply chains last 20 years not to return to it. However, the very concept Of all the sectors, the automotive sector is the most Iaroslav Nelibulov of an agile supply chain has demonstrated its limits since affected by supply difficulties. In Europe, several | Adobe Stock the spring of 2020, by underlining the extent to which factories were forced to close their doors in 2021. it means a strong dependence on a high level of product The Renault group partially halted production availability and responsiveness. The Covid-19 pandemic at its assembly plants in Spain for two months; in paralysed most major traffic routes, significantly reducing Germany – a country where the car industry plays the level of availability of many products, raw materials, a key role in the economy – long delivery delays spare parts and components. The disruption has been are multiplying and the difficulties experienced by compounded by the existence of global value chains with manufacturers are hindering economic recovery. expanded scales of production and physical distribution. The pulp sector is also heavily affected by shortages. A well-documented example is the microcomputer. The significant reduction in tree felling since the Apart from the external peripherals connected by beginning of the pandemic has led to a weakening of paper cables or wireless communication, a microcomputer production. In France, where six to seven million tonnes usually consists of hundreds of components designed are usually produced each year, only about 1.5 million and manufactured by suppliers and subcontractors tonnes have been produced since spring 2020. The price of around the world. Another case is the aeronautical a tonne of pulp has risen by 60 per cent, as have transport industry, which was one of the first to systemise the times. As four factories in Europe have announced decomposition of its industrial processes over thousands that they will stop producing pulp, including one in of kilometres, as Daniela Mocenco notes. It is clear here Sweden and one in Finland, the situation is expected that local failures in supply, manufacturing and delivery, to worsen throughout 2022. The publishing industry is even of components considered to be secondary, can concerned that some printers are experiencing delays in paralyse the entire supply chain, and thus prevent the the supply of white paper, their main raw material, with finished product from being made available to the final delivery times increasing from 24 to 48 hours to three customer. This is a main dimension in supply chain to four weeks. Other sectors affected by pulp shortages management: a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. include toilet paper, sanitary napkins and baby nappies. As Sodhi and his colleagues point out, careful thought Structural fragility needs to be given in the context of future pandemics to deal with the shortages that are likely to recur. The computer and aeronautics industries are not exceptional cases. Many assembly industries, such as For particularly sensitive products such as micro- household appliances and the automotive industry, processors, it is obvious that strong geopolitical tensions are part of the same global value chain. However, will emerge from the shortage situation, notably between the Covid-19 pandemic has underlined a structural the US and China. The latter has triggered hostilities with fragility that is likely to be long-lasting, and that its ‘made in China’ plan, which aims to produce 70 per directly threatens the capacity of supply chains to cent of the components it needs in the country by 2025. show resilience in the face of an external shock of In response, former President Donald Trump’s ‘America an intensity hitherto unknown in recent history. The recovery of logistical systems on a global scale is likely to be slow, given the health constraints imposed to avoid the spread of new waves of the contagion, making international supplies uncertain in terms of both frequency and reliability. It is true that in the past, external shocks have had a significant effect on the monitoring of supply chains, but whether caused by an earthquake, tsunami or terrorist attack, the external shock was limited in time and space. With the Covid-19 pandemic, Ferreira and her colleagues note that economies have discovered their strong dependence on constant logistical performance at the risk of increasing shortages. This central question of shortages at one or more given points in a supply chain has been raised since early 2020. An analysis conducted by the International Monetary Fund in 2021 indicates that supply chain disruptions, based on the difference between the supply delivery times sub-index, and the supply delivery times based on manufacturing output index, ‘exploded’ in the first part of 2020. However, after a sharp decline, supply chain disruptions have risen dramatically in 2021, particularly in the US, as shown in Figure 1. The best-known and most widely discussed result is an increase in shortages in various sectors. One example is the shortage of semiconductors – the chips that form the basis of all electronic products – because most are produced in Asia, which has been hit hard by the pandemic. Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 65

Reproduced First’ programme was launched. Accused of collusion with sourcing from low-cost countries is consequently being under CC license the Chinese Government, Huawei has seen its supply of questioned as supply chains are struggling to get back from statista.com components cut off by the US. Europe is indirectly affected on track, particularly because of the lack of manpower. by the economic war between the US and China, caught However, the weak signals of a return to business as between the two superpowers. The US administration usual are already perceptible with the resumption of has given itself the right to control European international trade with China, which is once again exports of products with ‘made in USA’ components, becoming the world’s workshop. Several European car preventing France from delivering Scalp missiles to manufacturers have thus relaunched their international Egypt. Shortages thus exacerbate the clashes linked to sourcing programme for several new models. access to resources, by weakening a growing number of supply chains owing to an increasingly uncertain Yet not a day goes by without the media reporting on supply of raw materials, spare parts and components. shortages or delays in delivery, sometimes in a humorous tone. For example, in September 2021, the press reported Supply difficulties lead inevitably to higher on beer shortages in UK pubs, partly owing to Brexit, production costs for manufacturers, which are then but mostly because of the pandemic. Later, supply tempted to pass these on to the consumer. In the problems affected iconic brands such as McDonald’s, clothing sector, the price of cotton has risen by 47 per whose customers were deprived of milkshakes, or KFC, cent in one year, and experts project that clothing which had to remove certain items from its menu. prices will rise by at least another five per cent. These examples, which may seem anecdotal, indicate The situation is exacerbated by rising logistical costs, a gradual shift in expectations of logistical performance, linked to shortages in transport facilities. Asics – a leading for example in terms of tolerance of delays. Where the sports equipment company – makes extensive use of air dominant paradigm three years ago was one of near- transport, the price of which has quadrupled in a year. instantaneous product availability, there may be an This will affect the selling price of its finished products. emerging acceptance of delay and shortage by customers. The situation can be explained in part by a mismatch Perhaps the disruptive model of slowness logistics will between supply and demand. With the reduction of health be the symbol of tomorrow’s supply chains, in a world that constraints and the end of lockdown periods, demand is more respectful of the environment and that has broken for many products has exploded, leading factories to with the frenzy of immediacy. increase their production rhythms and need to buy more raw materials and components than are available. Sources It is safe to assume that the cause of the shortages is ■ Christopher, M (2000): The agile supply chain: competing in related to the aftermath of the pandemic and should volatile markets, Industrial Marketing Management, 29(1), 37-44, disappear in the post-Covid world. The health crisis has doi.org/10.1016/S0019-8501(99)00110-8 disrupted production in many countries on numerous ■ Ferreira C, Cardoso C, Travassos M, Paiva M, Pestana M, Lopes occasions. It has also had a major effect on the logistics J-M, Oliveira M (2021): Disorders, vulnerabilities and resilience in associated with the operation of global value chains, the supply chain in pandemic times, Logistics, 5(3), article 48, doi. particularly with a sharp increase in air and sea org/10.3390/logistics5030048 transport costs. The economic model of offshoring and ■ Forrester J (1958): Industrial dynamics: a major breakthrough for decision makers, Harvard Business Review, 36(4), 37-66 ■ Fulconis F, Paché G (2021): Halte à la ‘logistisation’ du monde? Revue Politique et Parlementaire, June, revuepolitique.fr ■ Haren P, Simchi-Levi D (2020): How coronavirus could impact the global supply chain by mid-March, Harvard Business Review Digital, February, hbr.org; ■ Mocenco D (2015): Supply chain features of the aerospace industry: particular case Airbus and Boeing, Scientific Bulletin- Economic Sciences, 14(2), 17-25; ■ Paché G (2020): Lockdown exit strategy: supply chain dimensions, Crisis Response Journal, 15(2), 38-41; ■ Sodhi M, Tang C, Willenson E (2022): Research opportunities in preparing supply chains of essential goods for future pandemics, International Journal of Production Research, forthcoming, doi.org/1 0.1080/00207543.2021.1884310 Author GILLES PACHÉ is Professor of Retailing and Supply Chain Management at Aix-Marseille University in France. He has more than 500 publications in the forms of journal papers, books, edited books, edited proceedings, edited special issues, book chapters, conference papers and reports. A Member of the Centre d’Etudes et de Recherche en Gestion d’Aix-Marseille (CERGAM) and Director of the University Press of Aix- Marseille, his major interests are supply chain management, humanitarian logistics and retail operations management 66 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

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Supply chain chaos continues 68

supply chains Bill Peterson takes a closer look at the conditions and factors that continue to cause supply chain challenges and offers a view of what might be in store in the months – and possibly years – to come T his is an updated and somewhat more comprehensive America. For much of 2021, only 40 per cent of the examination of the pandemic related disruptions containers that arrived in North America were sent ABCDStock | to the global supply chain. The topic was covered back to Asia or Europe. Excess containers piled up Adobe Stock both in a previous article, The last tactical in ports. As such, Chinese suppliers are fighting for mile, (CRJ 15:2) and a brief blog on the Crisis more container availability and delays are projected Response Journal website in December 2021. before container manufacturers in China will be able to increase the supply to meet the growing demand. Moving into the third year of coping with the challenges posed by the pandemic, the US continues to be frustrated A significant factor in getting the supply chain system by exposure to over-reliance on foreign nations for back to normal is China’s fear of reintroducing the critical goods. Lack of manufacturing capacity in North Covid-19 virus to its population. National policy, including America and traditional supply chain components are still widespread total lockdowns, has disrupted shipping affected by factors previously inexperienced, as well as the worldwide. But the issue is particularly acute in China, ineffective management and distribution of warehoused where most foreign travel remains off-limits, including a stockpiles that led to continued goods shortages when substantial amount of outbound international travel. Ports supplies were most needed. Covid-19 continues to be a are especially sensitive spots, with regular shutdowns VUUCCA – volatile, uncertain, unprecedented, complex, for mass testing when infected personnel are identified. chaotic and ambiguous – supply chain situation, still with no clear vision of what an eventual workable and Exploitative industry efficient solution will be, or when it will be forthcoming. In August 2021, the world’s third busiest port of Ningbo, In year two of the pandemic, the USA’s efforts towards China, was shut down over a single Covid-19 case; solving the economic consequences of the pandemic the world’s fourth busiest port in Yantian Province led to rising wages and poorly targeted pandemic shut down operations in May and June, 2021 owing to relief programmes that gave Americans enormous 150 cases. Chinese coronavirus policy, practices and new spending power while, concurrently, the Covid-19 restrictions are the precipitating factor, and are part of variants discouraged consumption of services. As a the wider overseas marine crew staffing crisis that has result, consumers spent unexpected pandemic relief left ship crews stranded around the world. Thousands of funds on goods, many of which had to be imported. merchant sailors have been abandoned, a byproduct of a This snarled up overly optimised supply chains; badly regulated and exploitative marine transportation/ because of their historic design and performance, they shipping industry, making the timely and efficient couldn’t adapt to the rapidly shifting conditions. movement of goods by sea even more problematic. While previously very successful at delivering Chinese manufacturing struggled in 2021, and this required goods in a cost-effective just in time continues in early 2022, despite its surprisingly strong mode, the North American supply chain found partial recovery last year. Recent energy supply shortages itself bogged down, as multiple choke point effects and shutdowns are part of the problem, but growing rippled across the supply chain (see Figure 1). labour shortages may present a more permanent issue throughout all the individual elements of the global A report from early January 2022 by the Institute supply chain system. Covid-19 restrictions have made of Supply Management (ISM) – the oldest and travel harder for migrant workers, especially those largest supply management association in the world without proper identification. But China also faces – indicated that supply chain performance improved a demographic crisis, as its working-age population slightly in December 2021, compared with the continues to shrink since peaking in 2011. month of November. However, the US Department of Labor Statistics reported that manufacturing As a result of efforts to control the effects of the input cost for November 2021 was nearly 30 per cent coronavirus pandemic, China’s previous success as a higher than the cost reported in November 2020. predominant role player in the global supply chain may now be a liability. Having seen only small outbreaks As of late January 2022, global supply chains previously, the population has very little immunity were still experiencing bottlenecks with higher than other than that provided by vaccines. Studies indicate historical consumer demand and are expected to that China’s vaccines offer little protection against the remain that way for the foreseeable future. Delta and Omicron variants and the country is simply too big to import foreign vaccines in sufficient quantity Smaller, initial supplier companies continue to (and might not be inclined to do so, since it would mean report projected delays of up to nine months on orders admitting its own vaccine’s inferiority). China also from China, while larger ones are struggling to keep refuses to license mRNA vaccines developed elsewhere. products moving through the established supply chain. This means China is wide open to the Omicron variant In the US, shortages of shipping containers – critical and potentially to subsequent variants which, because of to modern supply chains – are also contributing to their more transmissible nature, will require even faster ongoing disruption. The containers normally circulate worldwide, but many are still stored unused in North Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 69

Figure 1 and more rigorous suppression. Xian, China, a city of 13 Current inadequacies of the supply chain between China and the United States can million, was in full lockdown from December 22, 2021 show us the source, deficiencies, reasons and consequences behind the continuing to January 24, 2022 because of a Covid-19 outbreak. supply chain situation The number of cases in Xian is trivial by American standards – only about 1,800 – but obviously more than the Chinese leadership will tolerate. The Winter Olympics in Beijing in February, 2022 also posed a significant risk for spread of any highly contagious strain of Covid-19. As large as China is, there is simply no way Omicron, or any contagious variant, will stay confined to Xian, Beijing, or any other location where a case is discovered. If we have learned anything over the past two years, a virus variant could pop up elsewhere, and quite possibly everywhere. This suggests that China will see more extensive lockdowns. In the long term, China’s demographic challenge is likely to drive some level of diversification of the supply chain away from it – both for economic reasons and because it will lend more weight to existing concerns about security, reliability and political vulnerabilities. China no longer has the luxury of being the world’s low-cost labour source. It is moving up the value-added chain, but will face significant competition from the rest of the world as the design of the global supply chain is likely to be modified in response to recent shortcomings. China’s Covid problem will have both internal and external effects. Within China, it will further slow an economy that was already transitioning to a new ‘Common Prosperity’ paradigm. However, rolling, random, weeks-long production shutdowns will not add to anyone’s prosperity, but will further aggravate global supply chain logistical snarls. Transportation, shipping, and warehousing choke points have also seriously challenged companies ever since the pandemic closed factories, cut into the labour force and significantly disrupted the transport of goods around the world. This legacy sector has been affected by challenges that will surely transform the current vision for providing transportation services throughout the entire supply chain. In the US, Southern California ports handle nearly 40 per cent of the nation’s seaborne container imports. Offloading terminals have been overwhelmed by the pandemic, while port delays fuel demand from both retailers and factories to replace depleted stock inventory to meet strong consumer demand. Container ships arriving from Asia have been required to berth offshore for up to two weeks before being given access to a port unloading berth, then encounter increased delays because marine terminals are choked with containers. Port trucking companies further struggle to pick up containers owing to a shortage of trailers. When trucking companies do manage to deliver a container at a warehouse facility, they often encounter even more delays caused by lack of storage space and workers. Between January and August 2021, Southern California ports processed an increase of 23 per cent in container traffic from comparable months just two years earlier. The increased cargo surge overloaded many links in the supply chain leading to both shortages and delivery backlogs, and contributed to a 31-year high for inflation of cost of goods. The US recession that followed the onset of the pandemic was relatively short, and a significant number of Americans continued to spend wildly because of the multiple stimulus payments sent to 70 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

supply chains taxpayers. Chinese manufacturing also recovered continue to affect supply chain production challenges faster than expected, but has recently been affected well into 2022, possibly even into 2023. Much depends by shutdowns. However, marine shipping companies on the continued impact of all the effects of the pandemic. had previously cut their schedules, causing ongoing While we have learned a lot about Covid-19, there are disruptions in both marine operations and in other still several questions that remain unanswered, and elements of the supply chain system that continue to more unknowns as to how long the underlying pandemic reverberate through the overstretched global system. impact will continue to challenge the individual and collective elements of the global supply chain. A surge in Covid-19 absenteeism, fuelled by the original Covid-19 virus, along with the Delta and Omicron At some point later this year, or early next year, we variants, is likely to sustain the problems that have should resume what will be a post-Covid, post-snarled, caused supply chain and transportation bottlenecks new normal supply chain. We’re sure to face many of and delayed deliveries of everything from automobile the same issues we saw in 2019, plus a host of new ones. components to medical supplies, and much in between. Some will be positive, some negative. For example, bringing back certain critical parts of the supply chain The Omicron variant has manifested itself particularly to move from a just in time to a just in case operation in labour shortages that have resulted in productivity paradigm will be a long-term positive for the economy. losses in every step throughout the entire supply But this transformation could also be inflationary, chain. While anticipated – or at least hoped – to be as it will increase prices. And it will take time. temporary, these supply chain hiccups will hit both supply and demand. Production will fall as employees Reshoring operations are off sick and these workers (plus their families) will likely reduce, or at least change, their spending habits. When supply chain disruptions can have global implications, there seems to be a growing interest The supply chain currently depends on predictable and a highly likely trend, where companies may be demand (spending) and, as such, we may see seeking opportunities to reshore operations, that oscillating impact from lower to higher supply were previously off shored, in the hope of finding and demand until the effects of the pandemic a more suitable location that provides an open, are stabilised or controlled. A stretch of depleted secure, more reliable and cost-effective solution. workforces and lower production volumes could potentially fuel further cost increases of goods and Some companies are reported to be considering influence already higher consumer inflation cost. leaving China. A recent survey of supply chain leaders showed that 33 per cent have plans to move at least a Employee absenteeism has been routinely reported portion of their manufacturing out of China by 2023. to be from 15-25 per cent, to as high as 50 per cent. The list of companies rethinking their subcontracting Manufacturing companies have resorted to employment strategy ranges from technology manufacturers like changes and wage increases of up to 30 per cent for Apple and Dell, to Hasbro, an American multinational hourly workers. Some have implemented flexible conglomerate with toy, board game and media assets. work schedules; others are deliberately over staffing, assuming that some new hires will leave quickly or In summary, with Covid-19 cases still rampant that another outbreak will overcome the workforce. across the world and beginning to make stronger inroads across China, the highly contagious nature The surging experience in employee absences is the of the Omicron variant, along with unknown future most recent – but probably not the last – strain on both variants, will continue to challenge every segment of public and private sector supply chain shortcomings, the supply chain pipeline. Major manufacturers are labour shortages and rising prices. While the Omicron closing factories. Ports continue to be clogged by a variant tends to result in mild symptoms, particularly to variety of issues such as capacity and availability. those who are vaccinated and boosted, employees must still miss multiple days of work so as not to infect others. Every element of the supply chain pipeline is dealing This continues to affect employers and requires them to with a short supply in the workforce, or those who react to the daily challenge of not knowing who will be are not showing up to fulfil their supply chain role. able to work, who cannot show up and how they need to react to play their critical role in the supply chain. The responses needed to overcome the myriad of primary and secondary causes of supply chain failure The current supply chain demands continue to outstrip continue to pose an unprecedented, uncertain, complex the availability of capacity, from ocean shipping to and ambiguous solution to mitigate the chaotic short and long-haul trucking and other goods delivery performance of the global supply chain caused by the networks, to driving manufacturers, shipping and worldwide impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. transportation suppliers and retailers. Put together, all of these factors increase overall supply chain costs. Author The future performance of the global supply chain WILLIAM BILL PETERSON is Senior Consultant will depend on the resolution of two key issues within China, along with ripple effects throughout the rest for Strategic Government Resources, with lead of the supply chain pipeline. The first is the impact of pandemic infections in China that continues to responsibilities for fire, emergency medical and cause ongoing interruptions within the world’s second largest economy. The second is China’s zero-tolerance emergency management related executive policy and strategy for combatting the pandemic. searches. Bill also serves as the primary technical expert for Manufacturing entities across the world have heightened fears that a wide variety of supply chain issues will operational assessments and management consulting in these fields. Previously, he was appointed Regional Administrator of the US Department of Homeland Security’s FEMA Region 6 in Denton, Texas, by President George W Bush. He is a Member of CRJ’s Advisory Panel Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 71

Under threat: The foundations of food security Millions of people in the world simply do not have enough food and are facing the shadow of famine. Even in affluent countries, the thin veneer of food security is stretched and weakening. Lina Kolesnikova warns how Covid, logistics, energy policy and rising prices, climate and raw materials all have unsustainable and far- reaching social and security ramifications I n October and November 2021, Twitter saw a discussion products for most tastes. Then Covid came, and between David Beasley, director of the UN World shortcomings in food security started to appear. Food Programme (WFP) and former governor of South Carolina, and Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of Tesla. Food security is defined as a situation when all people It started with Beasley’s CNN interview when he called consistently have physical, social and economic access to for billionaires to: “Step up now, on a one-time basis,” to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary help combat world hunger, specifically referring to the needs and preferences for an active and healthy life. world’s two richest men – Musk and Bezos (the owner of Amazon). Musk responded: “If WFP can describe Four dimensions of food security have been identified: on this Twitter thread exactly how $6 billion will solve ● Availability at national, and, in the case world hunger, I will sell Tesla stock right now and do it.” of the EU, at supranational levels; ● Accessibility at household level; Beasley highlighted how the current hunger crisis is ● Utilisation at individual level; and the “toxic cocktail” result of conflicts, climate change, ● Stability, which may be considered as a disasters, structural poverty and inequality. The pandemic time dimension and that affects all levels. has compounded existing issues, leaving: “Forty-two million people that are literally knocking on famine’s All four of these dimensions must be intact for door.” He added: “This is a worst-case scenario. The full food security. More recent developments also world is on fire. I’ve been warning about the perfect emphasise the importance of sustainability. storm brewing due to Covid, conflict, climate shocks and now, rising supply chain costs. It is here.” Food security is best considered as a causal, continuously linked, end-to-end consideration – from production The FAO’s report, State of Food Security and Nutrition to consumption, through distribution to processing. in the World in 2021, estimated that between 720 and 811 Notably missing in this concept is waste. Food security million people in the world faced hunger in 2020, up and food insecurity are dynamic, reciprocal and time to 161 million more when compared to 2019. Overall, dependent. The resultant status largely depends on the nearly 2.37 billion people did not have access to adequate cumulative result of a balance between the threats of food in 2020, 320 million more than the previous year. food insecurity and strategies aiming at dealing with it. Thus, the issue of food security has been Threat to food security brought to the attention of many more people. Universal indicators for measuring food security are We need to ask ourselves whether we have got our challenging. Different indicators may be applied priorities right and whether the right questions are being to different levels of food security. Measuring food asked. Could it be that we have somehow forgotten to security at the household level involves five categories pay attention to the basics – the foundations – on which – dietary diversity and food frequency, spending on the pyramid of our aspirations and progress is built? food, consumption behaviours, experiential indicators and self-assessment measurements. Developed by If the foundations are too weak, we run the risk the Economist Intelligence Unit, the Global Food that they might not be stable enough to sustain the Security Index highlights drivers and factors across Babylonian tower of our hopes and ambitions. more than 100 countries, ranking performance by considering affordability, availability, quality and Much attention has been paid to environmental safety, as well as natural resources and resilience. changes, often narrowly referred to as climate change. Countries compete to define their aspirations of green The threat to food security lies with urbanisation, economies and carbon-neutrality for the decades ahead. income disparity, overpopulation, ecosystem degradation, But, along with fresh air, water and liveable conditions, animal health and food wholesomeness. The latter is food is one of the founding stones of our pyramid. also an important aspect of nutrition and is monitored via food safety and food defence programmes. For years, food security did not seem to be a problem in Europe. Farmers and agricultural companies, albeit Food security, nutrition and sustainability are subsidised, have delivered a diverse basket of food increasingly discussed in one common context. The 72 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

food security Gillian Blease | Ikon Images integration of food security as an explicit part of the The other foundation stones also show signs of cracking. sustainability agenda would go a long way towards With rises in the prices of fuel and raw material prices, achieving a common approach and the realisation and shortages in energy production, energy costs have of efforts towards sustainable food security and skyrocketed. This, along with the impact of Covid on nutrition for our planet and its population. people and their availability for work, has led to logistical struggles, resulting in further growth of prices and a Apart from financial aspects, technical barriers and deficit of timely delivery of materials and fertilisers. subsidies, food security largely rests on four foundational stones – energy, logistics, productivity (largely depending These factors have led to the real risk of decreased on fertiliser and the size of crop areas) and people. crop yields. As small and medium farms struggle to keep afloat, more of them might go under and, ultimately, We have seemingly missed the point that small stop production. This would lead to unemployment, and medium farmers are the unique force cementing which could subsequently lead to social unrest. food security, giving it variety and flexibility. As the foundations weaken, the whole house becomes We have forgotten to respect the work of those shaky. In the modern world we are very comfortable small and medium farming enterprises by casually with buying and throwing away food; in doing so, dismissing their work and needs in favour of large we might be throwing away respect for the work of agricultural holdings. The latter are crucial, no the farmers who produced it. Should not we remind doubt. But, with their often-globalised interests and ourselves to respect them, and to pay them attention primarily, economically-driven aspirations, larger for what they do – ie cementing the foundations? agricultural organisations are not enough to sustain food security amid the current context of pressure on local EU Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius production at a time when logistics are not optimal. expressed doubts about the prevalence of food security Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 73

over environmental aspects in the current EU food wave of food inflation in the second half of 2022, system, suggesting that traditional concerns might causing another spike in the fertiliser market. have fallen in priority compared to ‘new’ issues like climate change, sustainability or biodiversity. “Food Many smallholders cannot afford higher costs and security is no longer a major concern for the European could potentially reduce their production. And this Union,” he said at the European Parliament’s agriculture will hurt food security in vulnerable regions at a time committee in June 2020. Among other challenges, he when access to food is already under threat from the mentioned food waste, overconsumption, obesity pandemic and climate change, including widespread and the food industry’s environmental footprint. drought, as well as higher costs and shortcomings He also insisted that the EU demonstrated its food in logistics. Local produce could have eased the supply resilience during the pandemic period. problem. But the number of farms in Europe has fallen by well over a third in two decades, hastening rural However, one year later Europe’s natural gas desertification. “The reason we lost four million farms shortage might have further and more serious social in the EU was a mistake in CAP,” acknowledged EU and political impacts. The cold winter has led to more agriculture commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski in stored gas being used; more had to be burned to make mid-2021: “The support was too geared to industrial electricity and there was not much wind for power farming and not enough to small and medium farms.” generation, so gas had to be used to produce electricity. At the same time there was a higher demand for gas Rural depopulation has gone hand in hand with unsustainable farming methods that the The pandemic has exposed European Environmental Agency says could see weaknesses in our food systems, crop yields fall dramatically. In southern Europe, threatening lives and livelihoods, it warns that wheat, corn and beet production particularly the most vulnerable could suffer a 50 per cent drop by 2050. and those living in fragile contexts Food security outside wealthy areas such as Europe is from Asia (China), along with the fact that geopolitical much worse. In various highly stressed regions, climate developments and the transition from fossil fuel energy change, local conflicts and the pandemic might ultimately to renewable energy have proved to be costly and have result in famine. Ethiopia, Madagascar, South Sudan, brought possible shortcomings into the spotlight. Syria, Yemen, multiple other African and Asian states – the list is long. For example, famine in Afghanistan The issue is not about lack of potential supplies, is looking unavoidable, with a high proportion of the but rather that, at current free market prices, there country’s 39 million people at risk of starvation (CRJ 16:4). are fewer companies willing to buy gas because they might have serious difficulties in making Food security risks in wealthy regions, which extra production economically viable and able to are the main donors and suppliers of the WFP, are withstand competition from outside the EU. related to potentially decreasing crop and ever- more-expensive and failing logistics. This puts Prices for other fuels are increasing too. The cost of additional stress on the WFP’s capability of delivering crude oil has passed $90 a barrel owing to higher demand meaningful support to developing countries. when economies reopened after Covid shutdowns. In summary, the pandemic is having a devastating The sharp rise in energy prices has led to the price of impact on the world’s economy, triggering an fertiliser tripling. According to Fertilizers Europe, the cost unprecedented recession not seen since WWII. of energy (primarily natural gas) has increased by up to Unfortunately, it continues to expose weaknesses in 80 per cent. Since September, some ammonia producers our food systems, threatening the lives and livelihoods have decreased production by as much as 40 per cent of people around the world, particularly the most owing to energy costs. Reducing ammonia production vulnerable and those living in the fragile contexts will decrease the supply of fertiliser and make it more of conflicts, violence and changing climate. expensive, further undermining food production. Considering past and present occurrences and dynamics Next to reduced production come limitations on of these drivers, together with economic slowdowns export. There are strict quotas effective for the export and downturns, as well as high and persistent (and, of fertilisers from Russia until the end of May 2022, in some countries, growing) levels of inequality, it is and Chinese authorities have also placed restrictions unsurprising that many governments, politicians and on fertiliser exports. There are also fears that export other decision-makers are not paying adequate attention volumes from Belarus will decrease significantly, to the worst-case scenario for food security and nutrition. owing to the effect of international sanctions. We need to wake up and assure the basics of food The persistence of high prices for fertilisers security. We need to respect the work of smaller farming in 2022 will force agricultural producers to organisations, for example, by attempting better planning buy less, which could lead to a decrease in the and predictions, as well as by managing the value chain volume and quality of crops in 2022–2023. to reduce waste. We need to optimise our support to them and ensure we have everything in place to sustain food This, in turn, will drive food inflation and security, at local, national and supranational levels. force governments to subsidise fertiliser and food purchases further. The market may face a new Author LINA KOLESNIKOVA is a Consultant in international relations, security, risk and crisis management, Belgium and Member of the CRJ’s Advisory Panel 74 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

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Worsening food insecurity in Pakistan An agricultural country, Pakistan has upped its game when it comes to both wheat and rice, becoming a surplus food producer. One would think that the country shouldn’t have to worry about food security. Why, then, are 36.9 per cent of its people food insecure? Luavut Zahid investigates A t a glance, the numbers do not look good. According which empowered provinces through devolution of to the World Food Programme, over 20.5 per cent power, had the opposite effect on Balochistan. of the country’s population is undernourished, with 44 per cent of children under five displaying “The local leadership has no capacity to tackle stunted development. In a country of 207.7 these issues. They continue to be unheard since the million people, these are troubling numbers. representation of Balochistan in Parliament is negligible. It’s equal to just Lahore – a city in Punjab – despite The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification being the largest province in the country,” he explains. (IPC) notes that food security is not equal across the country. The provinces of Sindh and Balochistan The disparity between the provinces doesn’t stop suffer the worst, with issues ranging from abysmal at their borders. A report from the Pakistan Institute inflation to climate change related loss of crops. of Development Economics notes that the problem takes a different shape when rural and urban areas IPC’s Acute Food Insecurity Analysis for April to November are compared. According to the Pakistan Bureau of 2021, and December 2021 to February 2022, shows that Statistics, over 64 per cent of the country’s population over 3.8 million people face acute food insecurity in the lives in rural areas, where their income is generated two provinces. In a second report, the IPC adds several from agricultural activities. As producers, they have rural districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to the mix. much quicker and more convenient access to food. “Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh are Qasim Shah is the Deputy Executive Director at the three provinces in Pakistan that have a high prevalence Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) and of food insecurity, malnutrition and poverty. In 2021, has been working on issues related to food insecurity their populations faced multiple shocks including high for more than a decade. He says that the availability food prices, drought, inadequate rainfall and livestock of food has always been better in rural areas. diseases, which were exacerbated by the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic,” the IPC report notes. “There is a clear mention that food insecurity is always an urban phenomenon. Unlike poverty, which is more Water & electricity of a rural phenomenon, food insecurity is mostly an urban phenomenon,” he told me, noting that even if In Punjab, arguably the most populated province food is in abundance, it is not always of good quality.  in the country, the disparity can be seen in terms of the region, where South Punjab, which is classified Abid Qaiyum Suleri serves as the Head of as a poorer part of the province, experiences much Independent Policy at SDPI. He is also the convenor worse food insecurity than the rest of the country. of the National Co-ordination Committee on Agricultural Transformation and a member of the Mir Sher Baz Khetran, a Research Fellow at the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council. Institute of Strategic Studies (ISSI), says that resource allocation between provinces itself has a disparity, which The issue of food security is an uneven problem feeds into all aspects of life. “For example, there is a in the country. “Pakistan has many geographical shortage of water and electricity in Balochistan. While areas that are food insecure, and even within larger farmers have used solar power as a workaround, areas where there is food security, we can see small farmers have to rely on the three or four hours patches that are food insecure,” Suleri says. of electricity provided, during which they are unable to water their crops effectively. Moreover, there is no “Rural areas are food producers, so ideally they research and development here, unlike in Punjab, so the should have adequate supply, but urban areas have a quality of seeds or crops is different,” Khetran explains.  larger buying capacity. More or less, rural areas have food self-sufficiency because of availability,” he adds. He goes on to note that the province barely has any representation in the country’s leadership or Suleri says there are three main aspects to the issue bureaucracy. Changes in power dynamics, such as the of food security in Pakistan: The physical availability introduction of the 18th Amendment to the Constitution, of food; socioeconomic access; and food utilisation. “When it comes to physical availability, the food is available, there is no genuine shortage. However, 76 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

food security socioeconomic access remains problematic. There are against rapidly rising inflation is the question,” he adds, A farmer cutting many sections of society that cannot afford food, so they explaining that each time the Government allows for grass for his have to rely on less nutrition or lower quality food,” he deficits in any human development indicators, they goats in Punjab, notes. Food absorption or utilisation is also an issue, come back to affect food insecurity. For instance, if the Pakistan. South where clean water, health facilities, sanitation and an health budget is decreased, the effects can be seen. Punjab, which awareness of what food is nutritious are all lacking. is classified as The pandemic has also resulted in small industries a poorer part Adding to the issue is inflation. In December 2021, taking a huge hit. Many were unable to adjust to the of the province, the country’s consumer price index jumped by 12.3 challenges brought on by lockdowns. However, Pakistan’s experiences per cent, with the prices of edible items being the main industries did not experience the kind of toll observed much worse food drivers. In the coming months, several tax exemptions elsewhere. Suleri notes that other factors have had a insecurity than the will be removed, while new duties and taxes are expected. role to play rather than the pandemic, saying: “We did rest of the country “Lower or middle income earners take on the brunt of not have lockdowns like the rest of the world. Instead, inflation, and this directly means that they will opt for Pakistan went with smart lockdowns, isolating problem Zubair Hussain | lower quality or compromised food sources,” Suleri notes. areas alone. Instead, the rising fuel prices, along with Unsplash the instability in Afghanistan, have both played a role.” The Government is eyeing fresh funding from the International Monetary Fund, but this could be at the Khetran also notes that staple food is being cost of several human development indicators, including siphoned off to other countries, and this is a major food security. Further inflation is on the cards. It is contributor to the food shortage at home. “We have important for the leadership to take stock of the situation. to address this issue on a priority basis. Last year we imported $10 billion worth of agricultural products Shah adds that this is a worrying trend: “Over 60 from Russia, including wheat and sugar, because per cent are unable to buy nutritious food. There is our own produce was smuggled out,” he laments. a loss of $6 billion annually owing to malnutrition in Pakistan,” he asserts, adding that the situation has The problem is, and will remain, that policies in now worsened because of the employment crisis. Pakistan are implemented to fight fires instead of focusing on sustained improvement in growth. It remains to be seen The Government’s efforts can be fragmented at times. how big a blaze food insecurity will have to become before For instance, prices have been reduced in officially-run it gets the attention it is due. utility stores, but people in far-flung areas have no way to access them. “Take the example of tomatoes. Just a week Author ago they cost PKR 80 per kilo in a controlled market, but the price has jumped to PKR 160,” says Shah. LUAVUT ZAHID is a professional journalist based in “There are initiatives such as the Benazir Income Lahore and is CRJ’s correspondent in Pakistan Support Programme, but how far it can withhold 77



key network partner Responding to geological hazards Natural hazards can be inconsistent and unpredictable in their occurrence and intensity. This requires public safety operators to be highly adaptable, says CRJ Key Network Partner, Pix4D I n the case discussed in this article, a landslip had occurred and used checkpoints – locations with known geographic on the outskirts of Tbilisi, the capital city of Georgia. coordinates – to ensure the accuracy of the model. The National Environmental Agency of Georgia was This level of geolocational accuracy meant that team called in to assess the risk to the nearby infrastructure members could be confident in their analysis, which in the Vashlijvari suburb, in co-ordination with included determining the depth, volume, curvature and the Tbilisi Town Hall. The response required them potential movement of the landmass. The team measured to assess the situation to assess and predict terrain 500,000 cubic metres of terrain at risk of displacement. movement. To analyse a geological hazard, the team set out to measure the landslip, which started with a The team generated a digital surface model (DSM) in crack opening on the hillside. Measuring the site would PIX4Dmapper that showed both natural and constructed lead to planning for redirections of flow and managing features on the terrain. All the processing was completed what volume of earth might be mobile. To do this, the by the software in four-and-a-half hours, ready for team used drones and specialised photogrammetry analysis and to be shared between organisations. software that can take measurements from images. The DSM was used to predict the velocity When they are paired with the right software, drones and flow accumulation of the landslide, which are a great option for public safety operations. They was critical to the overall mission. empower operators to gain situational awareness about a scene, while being able to maintain a safe distance, thus After the results were generated, the National lowering operational risks. Drones can also be transported Environmental Agency shared its findings with Tbilisi to a site easily, making them a highly versatile tool. City Hall and helped with preventative and protective measures. Later that year, the threat was declared over In combination Ideal solutions thanks to the joint efforts of these two organisations. with the right mapping software, The team used an eBee X drone with an Aeria X Naturally, not all emergency situations are as slow- drones are camera. This drone is a fixed-wing model and has a moving as this one. Drones are still applicable in these invaluable tools for longer flight time. It is ideal for larger surveys, as in this cases, but it might be beneficial to use different measuring terrain analysis case, where a large area of terrain was being analysed. software to gain situational awareness such as PIX4Dreact, which generates 2D maps within minutes, entirely offline. Vitali The crevice that opened measured 14 metres Machavariani | long, and the National Environmental Agency In this case, PIX4Dmapper was the ideal solution, Georgia National team ended up surveying the crevice itself, as thanks to its capabilities for 3D modelling and terrain well as 2.5 square kilometres around it. analysis. The threat of the landslide has been eliminated, Enviroment and the authorities now have an actionable DSM that Agency A total of 889 images were captured and then can be compared with any changes to the landscape, and processed with the specialised 3D mapping software, they can continue to monitor the landscape to see whether PIX4Dmapper. The team measured the torn landmass further action needs to be taken. ■ Pix4D is a CRJ Key Network Partner, see pix4d.com Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 79

The peacebuilding rationale for civil defence Alistair Harris outlines the positive effects that the Palestinian Civil Defence teams are having in Lebanon, in terms of promoting social cohesion and peace among the communities who live there T he first civil defence capabilities in the Palestinian refugee In addition to their emergency, firefighting and camps of Lebanon were developed in 2014. In my article, pandemic response activities, the teams demonstrate From refugee to responder (CRJ 15.4), I highlighted that the the clear peacebuilding rationale for civil defence; refugees’ displacement, poverty and vulnerability are they frequently intervene in outbreaks of armed exacerbated by the fact that: “A complex, and at times violence inside and outside the camps, with a singular conflictual, history with the Lebanese state means that focus on saving life and promoting de-escalation. many services usually provided by the state are not available within the camps, including those traditionally On August 1, 2021, five people were killed by Sunni associated with civil defence. Overcrowding, lack of Arab tribesman in an ambush during a Hezbollah fighter’s building regulations, frequent flooding and dangers posed funeral in Khaldeh, south of Lebanon’s capital Beirut. by irregular wiring, as well as the presence of unregulated The PCD leader from the Palestinian refugee camp of weapons, mean that challenges to social stability and Shatila (itself the scene of the massacre of hundreds of the wellbeing of camp residents are never far away.” Palestinians at the hands of a Christian militia in 1982) deployed to the scene in a PCD ambulance to attend to In the ecology of a refugee setting in a country the wounded, as no other actor was able or willing to struggling with its own complex political and approach the scene. After 45 minutes without medical socioeconomic crises, the cadre of more than 350 assistance, one of the victims was in danger of bleeding Palestinian Civil Defence (PCD) volunteers has to death. Working alongside the Lebanese Armed demonstrated the multifaceted utility of civil defence Forces, the PCD saved the life of the man who had been in areas characterised by conflict and instability. shot in the chest. He was one of the three wounded 80 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

communities The men and history of conflict has been evidenced more recently with women of the the PCD’s role in supporting a Lebanese NGO. It has Palestinian Civil brought young people from the opposing communities Defence of Jabal Mohsen and Bab Al-Tabbaneh in the Lebanese city of Tripoli together to create a joint youth emergency ARK response capability. Tripoli, like the Palestinian camps, is characterised by poverty, alienation and lack of who were then transported safely to hospital. The PCD opportunity. In the most recent iteration of a survey medical response and the team members’ willingness conducted by UNDP, respondents in Tripoli were asked: to insert themselves between opposing Lebanese parties “Compared with this time last year, would you say that contributed directly not only to saving lives but – as the your household is doing much better, better, about the Palestinian first responder was interviewed on satellite same, worse or much worse?” Nearly all households television immediately after the event – in presenting the provided a negative report, with 51 per cent responding PCD’s neutrality, humanity and impartiality to millions that they were doing ‘worse’ and 43 per cent saying of Lebanese and regional viewers. This contributed to they were doing ‘much worse’ than a year previously. changing people’s attitudes towards Palestinian refugees. In the same survey, Tripoli residents were These attitudes are steeped in Lebanon’s history, extremely pessimistic about the future. Asked if they particularly the role of Palestinian armed factions during thought: “Five years from now, Lebanon (would) the Lebanese civil war. Very public deployments such be a better or worse place to live.” Seventy-nine as this, combatting the wildfires that routinely ravage per cent noted that they expected the country to be Lebanon and working hand-in-hand with their Lebanese a ‘worse’ place to live, and 15 per cent predicted that civil defence colleagues after the Beirut port explosion of the country would be a ‘much worse’ place to live. August 4, 2020, serve to reduce prejudice incrementally and promote reconciliation between communities Tripoli has witnessed a recurring conflict between with a history of conflict and strained relationships. the Sunni Muslim residents of Bab-al-Tabbaneh and Alawite Muslim residents of Jabal Mohsen. Residents Following the wildfires in North Lebanon in 2021, of the two neighbourhoods have clashed periodically Father Nassim Kastoun, a well-known figure in the since the Lebanese civil war, often engaging in region, stated: “These people didn’t leave us all the time, violence. They are divided along sectarian lines, as they were present since day one, they slept here even well as by their opposition or support of the Alawite- and they gave their best. A big salute to the Palestinian led Syrian Government. With extensive experience Civil Defence.” Another person noted online: “While of operating in a contested, impoverished, peri-urban the Lebanese Civil Defence and others came from spaces, characterised by frequent armed clashes, the different areas in Lebanon and left (we thank them PCD is ideally placed to offer an alternative vision to all), the Palestinian Civil Defence haven’t left the fire young people on both sides of the community divide. for three days non-stop, we kiss your hands who helped extinguish this fire and a thousand thanks from our heart.” Peacebuilding programme Seeing Lebanese Christians – many of them historically hostile to Palestinians – openly praise the intervention, In late October last year, the PCD team from Baddawi speaks to the peacebuilding logic of civil defence. Palestinian refugee camp near Tripoli undertook a joint training course with 24 young people (nine The rationale for supporting communities with a of them women) from Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen. The training was conducted in the nearby Palestinian camp as well as the NGO’s premises on Syria Street, which is the dividing line between the two antagonistic communities. The basic training, which is part of a broader peacebuilding programme for the two communities, consisted of first aid and firefighting. The functions of civil defence are traditionally understood as being the protection and assistance of populations, as well as of safeguarding property and the environment in the face of natural hazards and human-caused disasters. Conflict is perhaps the most apposite example of a human-caused disaster. The PCD teams in Lebanon continue to demonstrate that civil defence can play a key role in peacebuilding and building confidence in areas that suffer from conflict. They do this by working across fault lines to de-escalate armed conflict, model participatory community safety and create joint capabilities that serve the interests of all members of the community. Author ALISTAIR HARRIS OBE is the CEO of ARK, an international organisation specialising in assisting communities affected by conflict and instability Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 81

(Re-)Defining Bangladesh at 50 Guest Editor Haseeb Md Irfanullah introduces this feature on Bangladesh in which six experts on governance, climate and security o er their views and share research about how the country has made improvements to its resilience and disaster risk management capabilities B angladesh celebrated the golden jubilee of its Nepal. With hills and uplifted blocks occupying one-fifth independence in 2021. Born through genocide and the of its landmass, it is no surprise that a significant portion suffering of millions of people during a nine-month long of Bangladesh – criss-crossed with numerous rivers, liberation war with the Pakistan military in 1971, the canals and wetlands – is immersed by floodwaters every country has gone through tremendous transformation over rainy season. Climate-wise, Bangladesh is a subtropical the past 50 years. In the first decade of its independence, country. It is positioned on the tip of the funnel-shaped Bangladesh experienced many sociopolitical shocks – Bay of Bengal, which frequently ushers low pressure shifts in government and political systems, assassinations systems or depressions to the country’s coast in the form of the Father of the Nation and political leaders, military of cyclones and storm surges. In terms of biodiversity, coups and martial law, as well as repeated amendments the country is home to around 3,800 flowering plant of the constitution. Many of these issues still live species (1.5 per cent of the world’s total species), about on in one form or another and influence decisions 2,000 algal species (4.5 per cent), more than 700 bird governments take on governance, economic development, species (seven per cent) and around 650 fish species (1.5 international relations and social and national security. per cent). These are amazing numbers for a country of Bangladesh’s geographical location also shapes its 147,570 square kilometres, which accounts for only 0.01 evolution. Being a lower riparian country in one of the per cent of the world’s landmass. Bangladesh’s location world’s largest deltas within the Ganges-Brahmaputra- also puts it on the crossroads of South Asia and South- Meghna Basin, 92 per cent of the water that flows through East Asia, thus making it a part of diverse political and Bangladesh originates in Bhutan, China, India and cultural ecosystems, as well as of political and economic 82 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

focus on Bangladesh strategies of large economic powers active in this region. country, up until February 18, 2022, Bangladesh had 1.93 In its first couple of decades, Bangladesh was million confirmed Covid-19 cases and approximately identified as a populous, disaster-prone, poverty- 29,000 deaths. As of February 14, 2022, Bangladesh stricken country, often suffering from political administered about 176.8 million vaccine doses and is turmoil. All this has changed. Let me share some key, working towards vaccinating its 170 million people fully. interconnected dimensions of this transformation. Despite the digital divide between different sections Bangladesh reduced its poverty from 57 per cent in 1990 of society, Bangladesh is benefitting from being Digital to 20.5 per cent in 2019. Studies showed that the Covid-19 Bangladesh more than ever as it fights the pandemic pandemic almost doubled the number of people in – from pandemic awareness, testing, treatment and poverty by December 2020. This is now expected to come vaccination, to online commerce and education, and down to the pre-pandemic level by the middle of 2022. working remotely. While the short and long-term Nevertheless, the last three decades of poverty alleviation effects of the pandemic on health, rural economy, have been a result of outstanding concerted efforts from employment, remittance, education, social cohesion and the government and its branches, the private sector and international relations are debated and the government’s NGOs. In addition, development partners have offered responses are scrutinised, we cannot ignore what the assistance through, for example, microfinance support to country has achieved while tackling this global crisis The first 50 years and social safety net programmes for the extreme poor, – the swift revival of annual GDP growth and rapid of Bangladesh’s independence employment generation in the production and service reduction of Covid-induced poverty summarise it all. are marked by the graduation sectors, foreign remittance by exporting labour power Adaptation leader from LDC status, and large rural community development programmes. climate leadership and the realisation This shift is in line with the economic growth that In recent decades, Bangladesh took several commendable of a vision called ‘Digital Bangladesh has maintained, especially over the last steps that have been praised globally. Since August Bangladesh’ decade. In 2012, the government elaborated its Vision 2017, the country has been sheltering approximately Haseeb Md Irfanullah 2021 to transform Bangladesh into a middle-income one million Muslim Rohingya refugees who fled economy by 2021. The country first met all the criteria to severe persecution and genocide in Myanmar, their graduate from least developed country (LDC) status in home country. Over the last 33 years, Bangladesh’s 2018 and maintained the same during the 2021 triennial contribution to the UN peacekeeping missions has been review. In November 2021, the UN General Assembly widely appreciated. As a climate-vulnerable country, approved a five-year preparatory period for Bangladesh Bangladesh has also shown leadership in the global arena. for a smooth transition while recovering from the In June 2020, and for the second time, Bangladesh Covid-19 shock. So, Bangladesh’s full graduation will assumed the presidency of the Climate Vulnerable now take place in 2026. In 2019, Bangladesh attained Forum, representing 1.3 billion people from 48 an astonishing 8.15 per cent growth in GDP. Despite the nations. Constrained by the pandemic, the Bangladesh pandemic, the country managed 3.5 per cent growth in presidency has shown strong compassion to lead the 2020, 5.5 per cent in 2021 and is expected to reach around forum to the COP26 in Glasgow in November 2021. 6.5 per cent in 2022. Bangladesh now aims to become The Global Centre on Adaptation’s South an upper middle-income country by 2031 and a high- Asia Office was established in the capital Dhaka income country by 2041 – known as the Vision 2041. back in September 2020, and is now flourishing Along with economic growth, Bangladesh has made with the host government’s support. significant progress in food production, leading to self- For the 2021–2022 fiscal year, Bangladesh allocated sufficiency. In 2018, it became the third and the fifth almost $3 billion for its climate budget, which equates highest producer of fish through inland water capture to 4.16 per cent of the total national budget and 0.73 and aquaculture respectively. The coverage of basic per cent of national GDP. In 2010, the government services has improved, marked by outstanding reduction established the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund of the child mortality rate, expansion of its healthcare (BCCTF) to implement the Bangladesh Climate Change system, improved water supply and sanitation provisions, Strategy and Action Plan (2009). Until May 2021, the and almost 100 per cent primary school enrolment. BCCTF – a pot that has so far received about $450 In terms of wider access to information and million from Bangladesh’s annual budget allocations communication technology, the motto ‘Digital Bangladesh’ – supported 789 projects. While developed countries was recognised as a popular equivalent of the Vision failed to channel the promised $100 billion climate funds 2021. Over the last ten years, Bangladesh realised an every year from 2020, Bangladesh’s rural communities’ outstanding digital shift. In November 2021, the country fight against climate change continues as they spend had 181 million mobile phone subscribers and 127 million $2 billion per year, an IIED study has estimated. internet users. On average, the equivalent of $250 million The outstanding adaptive capacity of the people has transactions take place daily through mobile banking. created Bangladesh’s characterisation as the “adaptation About 5,900 digital centres, run by more than 10,000 capital of the world,” an “adaptation leader,” and the “best entrepreneurs, were established at local government level teacher” in climate change adaptation, as Ban Ki-moon to serve tens of millions of citizens who otherwise would recently pointed out. not have easy access to certain information and services. The country is earning more than $500 million annually Author through outsourcing work, which has been tagged with DR HASEEB MD IRFANULLAH is an independent large human resource development programmes. consultant from Bangladesh who works on As I write this article, the world’s Covid story is far environment, climate change and research systems. from over. Despite being the eighth most populous He is a Member of the CRJ Advisory Panel Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 83

Preparing to seize opportunities Fahmida Khatun explores what will happen after Bangladesh graduates from being a least developed country, saying it must prepare to face the challenges and seize the opportunities that lie ahead B angladesh was categorised as a least developed country enjoyed by the country, the most useful of which is (LDC) by the UN in 1975. At that time the country trade preference. Other than for ready made garments was poverty stricken, with a less diversified economy. in the USA, Bangladesh receives duty free-quota free (DFQF) market access for all products to all developed An LDC has to fulfil at least two criteria for graduation, countries as an LDC. Some developing countries, according to the UN. These are per capita gross national such as India, provide duty-free market access for income, human assets index and economic vulnerability. all products from Bangladesh, while China offers On March 16, 2018, Bangladesh qualified to be considered duty free access for more than 1,000 tariff lines. for graduation by meeting all three criteria. Around 45 years after its LDC categorisation, the country received Bangladesh has been successfully utilising those ISMs the final recommendation to graduate from this category in a much better way than many other LDCs. One by the Committee for Development Policy of the UN such ISM is the Generalised System of Preferences after its second triennial review in February 2021. The (GSP) provided by developed countries. In fact, under country expects to graduate in 2026 if all goes well. the ‘Everything but Arms’ (EBA) initiative, the EU grants DFQF to Bangladesh. The loss of DFQF With the prospect of graduation, the country will market access after graduation will affect Bangladesh experience new realities. Indeed, there will be mixed negatively, since the EU is the largest market for realities, at least in the short to medium term. While Bangladesh’s ready made garment exports. Bangladesh will face some challenges because of LDC graduation, there will also be several opportunities. Under the agreements of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), LDCs also benefit from special and differential The greatest challenge that Bangladesh will face treatment. A waiver for patenting pharmaceuticals following LDC graduation is the loss of several under the Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights international support measures (ISMs) presently 84 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

focus on Bangladesh In addition to (TRIPS) is available to LDCs until the end of 2032. This products that previously benefitted from partial or national and waiver will still be in place once Bangladesh graduates full tariff reduction under the EBA initiative will no international in 2026, but it will no longer be able to take advantage longer receive such benefits under GSP or GSP plus. policy regimes, of it. Bangladesh has a strong pharmaceutical sector and Bangladesh must exports to more than 100 countries. One third of LDCs The country should therefore remain competitive ensure inclusive are among the countries that export pharmaceutical in the global market through higher efficiency and development and products and, when the LDC-specific special and productivity. This brings us to the issue of quality. governance differential treatment under the WTO’s TRIPS agreement Substantive qualitative improvements will be required ends, Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry could in areas such as education, health and other service Haseeb Md face difficulties in continuing export momentum. delivery by the public sector. Global competition could Irfanullah have a positive impact on Bangladesh since there will be The other important source is the availability of LDC- a demand for improving quality to remain competitive. specific funds. The Green Climate Fund (GCF) is crucial, since Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries The loss faced by Bangladesh owing to the cessation facing the brunt of climate change. As it must adapt to of various ISMs should be compensated for by taking the effects of a changing climate, there is a need for large part in regional and sub-regional initiatives such as the financial investment in shelter, agricultural production Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and other climate-resistant economic and social activities and Economic Cooperation, while remaining an active so that the lives and livelihoods of the people can be member of the WTO to reap the benefit from any protected. The cessation of GCF is worrying as it could progress on negotiations. The strength of the country hamper the country’s climate adaptation measures, unless climate funds are mobilised from other global sources. During its five-decade Another related issue on funding is the unavailability of journey, Bangladesh’s concessional finance for LDCs; the cost of development resilience has manifested finance and debt servicing liabilities are expected to rise. at various junctures New heights following its LDC graduation should be utilised through efforts towards making an entry into various As far as opportunities are concerned, the developing comprehensive economic partnerships. Bangladesh can country status itself will take the country to a new also try to be an observer member of the Association height; its image and branding will be upgraded of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), for example, immensely. Once a developing country, Bangladesh which could open avenues for economic partnerships. will be identified as having higher economic strength and capacity and this will help to attract prospective Finance is no less important for Bangladesh than investors. Bangladesh’s creditworthiness is expected to trade. The country will need higher finance to increase and its credit rating to improve, helping it to meet its growing demand for investment in physical mobilise external resources through loans from the global infrastructure and within social sectors such as market. Agencies will be comfortable with issuing loans, education and health. So, after graduation, Bangladesh as the country will have better ability to repay them. should secure funds from various sources. It will have opportunities for loans from the development institutions Indeed, the need for higher resource mobilisation and global commercial financial bodies. Additionally, will increase with greater demand for investment and funds from regional institutions such as the Asian employment generation. Once the country is out of Infrastructure Investment Bank and New Development the LDC group, there will be more opportunities Bank could be mobilised. The country should also for it to approach commercial loans from global develop its capital market for resource generation. sources. This will also help the private sector as it will not have to rely on domestic sources alone. During its five-decade journey, Bangladesh’s resilience has manifested at various junctures. From natural hazards To seize the opportunities after LDC graduation, to political instability and refugee crises – the people of Bangladesh will, of course, need to prepare now. the country have remained steadfast during all periods Once graduated from the LDC group, the economy and continued to perform and deliver by way of higher must diversify in many ways, including moving food production, remittances and ready made garment agricultural production from its main dependence exports. Economic growth has also been translated into on rice, towards more crop varieties. It will also have social progress in many ways. such as a higher literacy to diversify its exports more widely than the apparel- rate, lower maternal and child mortality and better based sector. There is potential for export expansion access to sanitation and drinking water. The success in pharmaceutical products, leather, shrimp, tea and and sustainability of its economic journey will depend jute goods. The country should also diversify its export how Bangladesh prepares for a smooth transition by markets and explore new markets for its products. overcoming the pitfalls of the LDC graduation. For economic diversification, skills development, Author technological upgrades, innovation and infrastructure development will be the key factors. To enjoy some DR FAHMIDA KHATUN is Executive Director, of the facilities that could still be available after Centre for Policy Dialogue, Bangladesh LDC graduation such as GSP plus, Bangladesh must comply with international conventions on labour and human rights, environmental protection and good governance. Of course, both GSP and GSP plus cover only two-thirds of tariff lines. Therefore, many Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 85

Resilience and prosperity under a changing climate Saleemul Huq, Md Bodrud-Doza and Khandker Tarin Tahsin outline the progress in Bangladesh over the last 50 years in terms of climate resilience, highlighting areas for improvement and lessons that can be learned B angladesh, jeopardised by multiple environmental, second largest clothing producer and has bloomed economic and social hazards, is one of the countries in pharmaceuticals, basic steel, cement and ceramic most vulnerable to climate change. Despite having industries. The country has also enhanced public- limited resources, it has made significant progress private partnerships and has invested in the power in reducing the loss of human life through improved sector, communication infrastructure and digitisation. early warning and forecasting systems, effective use of local governance structure, active involvement However, Bangladesh is predominantly an agrarian of community-based organisations, risk informed country and agriculture contributes 13.07 per cent to and evidence based policy formulation and effective GDP, while industry contributes approximately 28.54 implementation of the policies and strategies. per cent and the services sector about 52.96 per cent. On the other hand, geophysical location, high population Bangladesh’s progress is also reflected in its GDP. In density, dependence upon agriculture, nature-based 1971 growth rate was -5.48 per cent, increasing to 5.2 livelihoods and a lack of resources have made Bangladesh per cent in 2020. Bangladesh’s per capita has increased one of the countries most affected by climate change. from $134 to $2,064 between 1971 and 2020, which has had huge effects on society, reducing the percentage Although it has come a long way in managing natural of the population below poverty line by 80 per cent. hazards, the unpredictable and unprecedented effects of climate change may halt its economic aspirations. Export earnings have increased since the 1980s, with According to the Ministry of Environment, Forest and a rise of around 80 per cent in the past decade thanks Climate Change (MoEFCC), climate-induced disasters to the flourishing garment industry. Bangladesh is the account for a 1.5 per cent loss in Bangladesh’s GDP. In 86

focus on Bangladesh The climate 2016 the World Bank reported the economic losses from crops, cyclone and flood shelters, community-based crisis paints a climate change over the past 40 years to be $12 billion. and ecosystem-based adaptation projects, water bleak picture It is evident that development and climate change are infrastructure and embankments. Perhaps other for Bangladesh. inextricably interlinked. This should urge us to synergise climate vulnerable countries can take note from the But, given its climate and development policies to support adaptation experiences of Bangladesh with the BCCSAP and transformation in and resilience of climate vulnerable communities. BCCTF in how this strategy and funding window the last 50 years, navigate, nurture and, in turn, help implement the the country’s In the last 50 years, despite all of its climatic hazards, building blocks of reaching climate resilience. ambitions are Bangladesh has recorded impressive growth in food-grain, something to look fish, poultry and meat production. In 2020, total food- Bangladesh has also adopted Nationally forward to grain production was recorded as 45.4 million metric Determined Contributions (NDCs) to manage Haseeb Irfanullah tons, and Bangladesh now stands as the fourth largest growing emissions without compromising development rice producing country in the world. Furthermore, it and to allow the country to play its role in global has significantly improved in health, sanitation and life efforts to limit temperature rise to two degrees, or expectancy, as well as maternal and child mortality ratios. preferably 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels. Bangladesh has improved its gender disparities Recently, Bangladesh developed a plan called the successfully, securing first position in gender Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan (MCPP) to move towards equality among South Asian countries. prosperity from climate resilience. This plan offers strategies to move from managing the adverse risks of The country has made remarkable progress in climate change to achieving prosperity while overcoming integrating climate change and development plans, all the risks associated with climate change. The MCPP mainstreaming climate change adaptation measures in is not intended as a replacement for the eighth five-year national development objectives and moving towards plan or the Delta Plan 2100. However, it attempts to low-carbon, climate resilient development. Being bridge the knowledge and technical gaps that persist. This proactive in global climate negotiations and addressing plan further promotes green opportunities, maximises local climate issues has conferred the position of climate resilience and lays out funding needs ahead global leader in adaptation upon Bangladesh. of international, regional, public and private funding sources for technological advancement of the country. Climate change adaptation and developing resilience are constitutional obligations for Bangladesh. The The MCPP’s main agenda is to accelerate adaptation country has embraced a number of policies, strategies and resilience actions by empowering local communities, and plans at national and international levels and particularly those who are most at risk. The MCPP also adopted and ratified all three Rio Conventions – on places emphasis on enhancing the capabilities of private biodiversity, climate change and desertification – in 1992. and public sectors to ensure better access to global green investment funds, as Bangladesh will certainly Low-carbon pathway lose its share of grants from developed countries when it graduates out of least developed country (LDC) status. In 2005, Bangladesh prepared The National Adaptation Third, it focuses on educating youth and empowering Programme of Action (NAPA) and was the first country to them to participate and contribute in generating adopt it. Later, the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy ideas in solving such global crises. Finally, the MCPP and Action Plan (BCCSAP) which is considered as an aims to hasten the process of Bangladesh reaching extension of NAPA, was prepared in 2009. The MoEFCC middle-income status from LDC status and not rely on is the climate change related focal ministry of the development partners for grants or intellectual input. Government, as well as the focal point of UNFCCC. Bangladesh has undoubtedly outperformed most of The BCCSAP was developed to ensure climate the LDCs and has established itself as a role model for resilience followed a low-carbon pathway. It describes adaptation. However, there is still room for improvement mostly medium and long-term programmes and includes in terms of adopting locally-led adaptation approaches 120 projects across six thematic areas: Food security, and nature-based solutions. The MCPP outlines key social protection and health; comprehensive disaster investment areas for achieving prosperity from climate management; infrastructure; research and knowledge resilience. Nevertheless, managing, tracking and management; mitigation and low carbon development; maintaining fiduciary standards of such investments and capacity building and institutional strengthening. is essential if Bangladesh aims to equip vulnerable Additionally, the sixth, seventh and eighth five-year communities and reduce climate change vulnerabilities at plans have components concerning climate change. the local level. The Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF) Authors was created in 2009 to support the implementation of the BCCSAP. It became the first country to allocate DR SALEEMUL HUQ, Director of the International $350 million for climate change risk management from a non-development budget. Now, the BCCTF has a pot Centre for Climate Change and Development of $450 million and has supported 789 projects up to 2021. Additionally, multilateral and bilateral development (ICCCAD) and Professor at the Independent partners provide resources for undertaking climate actions. University Bangladesh (IUB) Since the BCCSAP was formulated; multiple governments and NGOs have been pursuing adaptation MD BODRUD DOZA is the Manager at the projects to climate-proof development and reduce the effects of climate change on the economy. Some of ICCCAD at IUB the projects include food security, health and disaster management, coastal green belts, saline tolerant KHANDKER TARIN TAHSIN is a Junior Research Officer at the ICCCAD at IUB Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 87

A new reality for Bangladesh On July 1, 2016, a terrorist attack on an upmarket café in Dhaka not only upset the tranquillity of a leafy part of the crowded town, but changed the way the world perceived political violence in Bangladesh. Shamsad Mortuza explains how T he victims included nine Italians, seven Japanese, one aspires to become the 24th economy in the world by 2030. Indian, one Bangladesh-born American accompanying The Holey Artisan attack almost spoiled this, forcing the two locals, and two first responders. The five young government to adopt multifaceted responses to satisfy its attackers were from educated, privileged backgrounds development partners and international stakeholders, as whose profiles did not match those who reportedly well as to secure political and financial stability. carried out a spate of attacks on free-thinking bloggers The main challenge became finding a balance and ethnic minorities. The men behind the Holey between development and democracy; between Artisan Bakery Café attack in Dhaka were different maintaining economic growth, while negotiating with from both the radicalised madrasa students and the voices of dissent. In responding to this attack, the the political opportunists who used petrol bombs country learned to leverage its economic successes for and arson attacks to unsettle the government. Their geopolitical gains to become an influential regional player. foray awakened the authorities to a new reality of homegrown terrorism, where a combination of local Bangladesh responded to the crisis by re-educating grievances attracted international influences, encouraging itself. It learned to keep its Islamist extremism in check middle-class youth from mainstream secular education and attained relatively stable investment and security to become a part of trendier ideological movements. climates. It tried to address vulnerable groups and engage with them at strategic and cognitive levels. However, The international community responded by addressing the youth in an ideologically divided nation issuing colour-coded security alerts, making Bangladesh became tricky as the state’s surveillance mechanism and a potential pariah state. The presence of the Japanese regressive policies seemed to undermine democratic norms. victims in a mega-river bridge project linked to the Asian Highway, and of the Italian nationals in the Debunking theories fashion industry, posed a double blow to the country, which was poised to be on a development highway, buoyed Background on the Dhaka attack helps to contextualise primarily by its garment exports. A country already the issue. All in their mid-twenties, the attackers drew flagged for its climate vulnerability and dangerous work media attention with their charisma and chauvinism. environments could ill afford to have another ‘scarlet They laid an overnight siege to the café and died in letter’ sewn to its map. Tropical storms periodically front of the camera, promoting their idealistic cause. lash the coastal areas of the low-lying flood-prone delta, The spectacle raised concerns of copycat terror attacks. whose existence is threatened by seawater rise in the Bay The mastermind, Tamim Chowdhury, was a chemist of Bengal. News of deaths from fire incidents, building who claimed to be a Da’esh member. His aide, Saiful collapses and labour abuses in the industrial sectors are Haque Sujan, attended the University of Glamorgan and other areas in which the country’s reputation suffers. was considered Da’esh’s top cyber expert. Funding came from a London-based computer engineer. The militants For the government, the timing of the attack was terrible. on the ground, Nibras Islam, Rohan Imtiaz and Meer With Parliament crippled by the absent opposition parties, Saameh Mubasheer, all attended elite private schools a terror attack one year before the national election was and universities. Their privileged backgrounds debunked sure to affect its political future. The Awami League the theory that only madrasa-based religious (AL) – the party that spearheaded the independence education was connected to violent extremist ideologies. movement in 1971 – espoused secularism as one of its founding principles, while severing its ties with Pakistan. Then again, the exponential growth in the number The military junta that usurped power following a of madrasas – including females – is a growing massacre in 1975 reverted to Islamic ideology. In its concern. The government’s statistical wing estimates that current leg, the ruling AL’s electoral manifesto involved a there are 9,305 madrasas, hosting 2.55 million strategic emphasis on digitalisation, aiming to refurbish students, of which 1.41 million are female. Research the image of Bangladesh as a nation set to graduate as shows that students of these institutions, irrespective a developing country, leaving behind its aid-dependent of their progressive or conservative curricula, are ‘basket case’ and least developed country (LDC) tags. politicised as they all want to see Bangladesh as an Islamic state. Some of the institutions, located in the Bangladesh now supplies the most military political hubs of the ruling party, use government personnel to the UN peacekeeping force. It is a Muslim banners to shield themselves or pose as apolitical. majority country with the highest female labour participation. It has a $330 billion economy that benefits The government’s promotion of female leadership from remittances sent home by its overseas workers, and and participation, religious pluralism in the name of secularism and counterterrorism tactics that 88 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

The Holey target religious leaders, do not sit well with these terrorist organisations such as al-Qaeda and Da’esh. Artisan attack religious institutions. This is further aggravated The government, however, denies the presence of demonstrated by the lack of mainstream job opportunities and that poverty social mobility for graduates, with frustrations often international terrorist groups and employs its intelligence and a lack of translating into violent outbursts. At times, they machinery to deal with radicalisation, extremism education are not are blown out of proportion and tarred with the and terrorism. It is known for its hardcore handling the root causes of fanatic brush. Take, for example, Bertil Lintner’s of extremism and softcore community engagement extremism 2002 article, Bangladesh: A Cocoon of Terror. programmes. It can claim considerable success in containing the aftermath of the Holey Artisan Syed Zakir The Holey Artisan attack shed light on a different reality. attack. However, there is a growing suspicion that the Hossain Poverty is not a root cause of extremism. A 2016 Pew ‘secular’ government may deviate from its secular centre poll showed that affluent and educated Bangladeshi men to accommodate the religiosity of its voters before support suicide attacks more than those from economically the next election. In recent times, the government disadvantaged groups. This is further corroborated by the has shown leniency in upholding secularism and fact that extremism has increased, despite improvements democratic principles, as well as defending minorities, in food security, healthcare and other basic services. which could spur on religious zealots. The increasingly While investigating the causes of the involvement of polarised environment of the country demands that the private university students in extremism, security government not only monitors the political dynamics personnel discovered many fundamentalist sleeper cells. constantly, but also develops effective responses to In response, educational institutes were brought under the rise of violent extremism in Bangladesh. state surveillance. Traditionally, universities have been the platform to promote democracy and revolutionary One response must take education into its cognisance ideas. The Holey Artisan incident proved them to be and bridge the madrasa/non-madrasa divide. Previous places where Islamist and secular ideas would clash. attempts to modernise madrasas prompted a mass protest that nearly toppled the government in 2013. It should The problem is enhanced by the reach of the Internet, aim to make education meaningful and impactful for which allowed globalisation to flourish. Events in all. A much more pragmatic outlook is required to instil Israel or Kashmir can have a butterfly effect in Dhaka. cognitive excellence in our young minds. Our future Conversely, those who work abroad, mostly in Middle generations must be given positive purposes in life so that Eastern countries, are often indoctrinated or exposed they can learn to live with dignity and peace. to a cultural disparity. They return home with ideas foreign to our local culture of tolerance and mutual Author respect. The diasporic experience, urbanisation and social unrest all add to the identity crisis of a young person PROFESSOR SHAMSAD MORTUZA is Pro-Vice transitioning to adulthood. Their anger feeds international Chancellor and the Dean of the School of Arts and Humanities, University of Liberal Arts, Bangladesh Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 89

Bangladesh: Now and beyond In his first article of this edition’s focus on Bangladesh, our Guest Editor Haseeb Md Irfanullah outlined features that currently define Bangladesh. Now, he explains, as the country enters the sixth decade of its independence, it has to deal with a few major challenges O ver the last 15 years, Bangladesh hardly ever left context – the impact of the historical burden it carries, Germanwatch’s Climate Risk Index table of the ten most the natural calamities it frequently deals with because of climate-vulnerable countries of the world; climate its geography, or the trade-offs it has to accept to remain crisis and climate-induced disasters will remain a relevant in geopolitics? It is therefore important for a large concern for this country in the years to come. In country in economic transition, like Bangladesh, to define addition to adaptation, the country will need to intensify its own development pathway, with its own priorities and its fight against climate-induced losses and damages at its own pace. While being ambitious, it must realise with much larger investment. Growing economically is that the quality of life and wellbeing of its people is much not the only story Bangladesh will write in the coming more than per capita income and GDP. It is important decades; how to protect and sustain such development to recognise how diversity, equity and inclusion could be gains under a changing climate will remain an ensured in economic and social activities by reducing the integral part of the country’s development treatise. gaps in gender, age and religion, as well as by minimising And while Bangladesh looks forward to leaving the the divide in accessing health services, education, least developed country (LDC) list in 2026, it needs livelihoods opportunities and modern technology. to realise what this really means for its people, for its Speaking of gaps, the next challenge is to reduce the environment, for the world. Globally defined standards distance between evidence-making and policymaking. and indices are used to measure a country’s progress. But Essentially, the government relies upon data and how effective are they at reflecting a country’s specific information collected by its agencies, not necessarily 90 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

focus on Bangladesh Bangladesh’s upon the new knowledge created by academics and a critical role to play in long-term regional stability. development researchers. Nevertheless, evidence-guided policymaking Over the last five years, Bangladesh formulated several story is all about is a crucial aspect of sustainable, adaptive development. people and their We often see research conducted without knowing the planning instruments to guide sustainable, resilient relationship with needs of the policy and decision-makers. We also see, once economic growth. The short-term plans, such as the Eighth nature. This conducted, that research is not sufficiently translated Five-Year Plan (2020–2025), define the country’s sectoral bond needs to for policymakers to use it. As a result, there exists a priorities to be translated into programmatic actions. be strengthened ‘valley of death’ between researchers and policymakers, Medium-term plans, like the Perspective Plan of Bangladesh as the country who seem to walk along parallel paths in the same (2021–2041), outline country’s strategic ambition to advances towards direction, but without much interaction. These parallel become a high-income country over the next couple of resilient prosperity paths must be connected like steps on a ladder. Our decades. The Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (2018), on the development ladder needs research and policymaking other hand, is a long-term investment plan to transform Haseeb Md to complement each other by meeting in the middle. the country into a resilient delta, initially by investing Irfanullah $37 billion in large infrastructural projects by 2040. We hardly need any indices to measure the dire conditions of Bangladesh’s natural and modified Paradigm shift ecosystems. Our city air and peri-urban rivers are highly polluted. It seems to be nearly impossible to However, Bangladesh needed a paradigm shift in its reverse the encroachment and conversion of forests and development thinking to redefine its development wetlands. Establishing a coal-based power plant near pathways. That opportunity came when Prime the Sundarbans mangrove, which was designated as a Minister Sheikh Hasina declared her government’s World Heritage Site in 1997, created tension between plan to formulate the Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan the government, environmentalists in Bangladesh soon after Bangladesh assumed the presidency of the and Unesco in recent years. Achieving a healthy Climate Vulnerable Forum in late 2020. This plan is balance between economic growth and environmental named after the Father of the Nation, Bangabandhu sustainability seems to be a long way away. Such scenarios Sheikh Mujibur Rahman (1920 to 1975), as the country don’t tally with the fact that Bangladesh has been celebrated the centenary of his birth in 2020. The Mujib undertaking coastal afforestation since 1966; it enacted Plan offers a new generation of development philosophy the Bangladesh Wild Life (Preservation) Act in 1974; it where Bangladesh will not only see itself as a resilient has been implementing natural resource management nation, but also a prosperous one amid the climate crisis. initiatives with the rural communities for the last 25 Made public in September 2021, this draft investment years; and, in 2011, it included in the constitution that plan expects to mobilise $83.55 billion by 2030. biodiversity conservation is the state’s responsibility. More recently, the Bangladesh Parliament passed the The major dimensions of the Mujib Plan include the Bangladesh Biodiversity Act, 2017 to protect biodiversity promotion and facilitation of locally-led adaptation to and ensure its sustainable use, while in November 2019, address equity and inclusion in the development process. it unanimously adopted a resolution on the ‘planetary emergency’, considering both climate change and the Nature-based solutions as an approach are biodiversity crisis. Bangladesh’s national policies do mainstreamed in this plan for the first time in Bangladesh, mention the protection of nature and environmental not only as a means of protecting and restoring ecosystems, sustainability, but the pace of action is painfully slow. but also as an opportunity for creating green jobs. The $7.2 billion Mujib Bongoposagor Independence Giga And I see the last challenge is that being a lower Array project proposes to combine wind power generation, riparian country, Bangladesh is closely connected coastal protection with mangrove plantation, as well as with its neighbours by rivers. Of its more than 700 marine conservation by introducing blue bonds in and small and big rivers, 54 are transboundary. Equitable around the Bay of Bengal. Among others, the plan brings sharing of these waters, especially the large ones such together protective infrastructure against disasters, the as the Ganges and the Teesta, has always been a critical use of technologies for citizens’ wellbeing and innovative issue in Bangladesh’s national politics, as well as in financing to support the labour market, enterprises its relationship with its largest neighbour, India. The and energy-driven sectors. Ambitious? It is. But, once South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation is the its implementation starts, it will be a game changer. oldest regional forum that Bangladesh is part of, having hosted its launch in 1985. In recent years, the country When we look at the numbers predicted for climate has actively been exploring alternatives of regional change, we see a grave picture for Bangladesh. But, when co-operation through the Bay of Bengal Initiative for I look into Bangladesh’s ambition to become a prosperous Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation nation, despite the perceived challenges, I see a country and the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN) that respects regional and global co-operation, that values Initiative, for example. However, this was unable to the importance of translating knowledge into action, ease the country’s tense relationship with Myanmar, that appreciates the urgency of pro-nature development, its other closest neighbour, as the ongoing Rohingya and that believes in its people and their strengths. refugee crisis enters its sixth year on August 25, 2022. Maybe I am biased, but I welcome you to join me in As far as geopolitics is concerned, Bangladesh is watching Bangladesh as it prospers – by 2026, 2030, 2041 in a strategic position given its China-India tilt. The and beyond. country’s role is also important from a human security point of view as it is on the routes of human, wildlife, Author arms and drugs trafficking. Bangladesh therefore has DR HASEEB MD IRFANULLAH is an independent consultant from Bangladesh who works on environment, climate change and research systems. He is a Member of the CRJ’s Advisory Panel Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 91

Retrorocket | 123rf Innovations in disaster management In December 2021, the Crisis Response Journal hosted a public webinar to explore current endeavours to strengthen disaster resilience links between all sectors and stakeholders, writes Nadine Sulkowski T he webinar was held on behalf of the Erasmus+ lead research and educational initiatives and to mobilise Capacity Building in Higher Education Project, networks, resources and specialist expertise in the Building Universities in Leading Disaster Resilience event of emergencies and during recovery. Led by the (BUiLD), and particular focus was given to showcasing University of Gloucestershire, UK, the consortium brings multi-agency and multi-stakeholder collaborations together 11 higher education institutions from across aimed at bridging the gap between academia and Indonesia and Europe, three private consulting firms practice in crisis and disaster management. and a growing group of associated partners, including public sector agencies, disaster aid organisations and Launched in 2019, the BUiLD project is committed funding platforms within Indonesia as well as the to devising a comprehensive disaster resilience Institute of Strategic Risk Management (ISRM). framework for Indonesia’s higher education sector (CRJ 16:4). The framework is based on universities The aspirations of the BUiLD project could not acting as catalysts for knowledge exchange between be timelier. The combined effects of the coronavirus public, private and third sector organisations to drive pandemic, geopolitical factors and climate change have scientifically and practice-informed innovation in caused an unprecedented crisis. Dealing with multiple, disaster research and disaster management education. longitudinal and complex threats and crises requires increasingly sophisticated and dynamic conceptual Universities have strong networks within the public and crisis and disaster management frameworks, diagnostics private sectors and with local, regional and international and solutions. Alongside this, new coping abilities, communities. This places them in a unique position to 92 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

EU project partner pedagogic and leadership models are needed to prepare communication and scientific communication. Science individuals, organisations and communities for disruption and uncertainty. As one of the most reputed academic communication is the process of informing, educating thinkers in the field of crisis management and in a recent webinar convened by the ISRM, CRJ Advisory and raising awareness of science-related topics among Panel Member Patrick Lagadec warned that 90 per cent of problems are no longer solvable with conventional the general public and non-expert audiences, whereas solutions and that crisis and disaster management approaches must be fundamentally reimagined. Voices scientific communication involves communicating new like his have sparked a critical debate about, and search for, those best placed to lead 21st century research, knowledge to scientists and technical experts. To be education and policymaking in this discipline. effective and meaningful across multiple stakeholders, Three issues tend to dominate such conversations. First, there is a general consensus that too much both types of communication require a common language segregation between academics and practitioners hinders meaningful advancements of knowledge, and appropriate information-sharing mechanisms. innovations to practice and input into policymaking. Second, conceptualising hypercomplex crises and Common barriers to information sharing were disasters requires imagination of the unknown as well as the most feared. It is intellectually and emotionally identified, including differences in national approaches, challenging. An inability and reluctance to foresee extreme situations therefore hinder intellectual debates legal frameworks or their absence, the availability and the furthering of discourse, let alone the fostering of new talent. Finally, unprecedented and dynamic and nature of IT infrastructure and suboptimal situations raise questions to which even experts do not know the answers. New leadership models that promote levels of co-operation between thematic experts. cross-sector collaboration and embrace trial and error as necessary pathways to success are needed to overcome Rut Erdelyi, the European Director of the Resilience entrenched professional thinking, silo mentalities, fears of accepting gaps in knowledge and fears of failure. Advisors Network (RAN), a CRJ Key Network Partner, Multi-agency dialogue and the Co-ordinator of the Horizon 2020 DRS01 Cluster, Overcoming these issues requires a strategic approach was the second based on two fundamental principles. The success of such an endeavour will rest on the facilitation of panellist. RAN is Multi-agency and a structured and ongoing multi-agency dialogue a group of over directed at the consolidation of expertise, resources and networks. Moreover, the advancement of scientific 100 international multi-stakeholder inquiry, education and knowledge transfer must be practitioners who underpinned by the creation of an accepted body of crisis and disaster management knowledge that is form expert project collaborations bridge the thematically dissected and can provide a roadmap for teams. Advisors come future curriculum development, research, innovation from a broad range of gap between academia and policymaking. Without either, future initiatives and collaborations in the pursuit of efforts in these areas related backgrounds and practice in crisis and will remain fragmented. Likewise, opportunities for the and projects are exploitation of scalable solutions are at risk of being lost. typically designed disaster management Examples of multi-agency collaborations involving to strengthen universities exist in various forms, at various levels and with varying impact. The CRJ webinar hosted in community, locality December brought together leading experts who shared European perspectives on how academic institutions can or infrastructure resilience from disasters and emergencies drive innovation in disaster management at a global scale through collaboration based on the two principles above. and may focus on the development of guidance materials, The first panellist was Christian Resch (CRJ 12:3), training, disaster drills or scientific research projects. Managing Director of Disaster Competence Network Austria (DCNA). As a co-operation platform of Erdelyi echoed the introductory argument for universities and research institutions, DCNA aims to promote knowledge transfer through research and developing academic institutions as catalysts for bringing education activities with stakeholders, and to provide scientific information to decision-makers in the event together science and resilience and called for linking of a disaster. Resch talked about science literacy and explained the need for multi-agency collaboration research clusters to leverage the social capital of academia. in developing 21st century discourse for both science She acknowledged political dimensions of DRR and the growing importance of Eastern and developing nations in influencing this dialogue, suggesting that the notion of capacity-building collaborations, typically led by Western nations, must be reimagined. Through her work with the Crisis Management Innovation Network Europe (CMINE) for Horizon 2020, Erdelyi connects RAN to a variety of other networks including academia (CRJ 16:4). Developed as part of an EU funded project, CMINE acts as an open, co-operative and inclusive knowledge exchange network for individuals, crisis management organisations, researchers, industry and policymakers across Europe and globally. CMINE provides a platform for focused discourse and co-operation, while trying to reduce repetition and fragmentation. The third panellist was Joerg Szarzynski, Co-Head of Global Mountain Safeguard Research (Glomos) Programme and CRJ Advisory Panel Member. As a collaborative programme and a scientific alliance between the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) and Italy-based Eurac Research, Glomos acts as an interface between the international mountain research community and the UN system. Szarzynski spoke about the UNU, which was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Japan; its mission is to engage in collaborative research and education to support efforts to resolve the global problems of human Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 93

intellectual capital and promoting knowledge transfer across multiple agencies. Her research is looking to better understand the way in which emergency responders from the police, fire and rescue and ambulance services work together. The aim is to enhance the common understanding of why challenges in emergency response persist and what intervention can be implemented to reduce the re-occurrence of those challenges in the future. Davidson is a researcher and doctoral student in Psychology at the University of Sussex and the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), an executive agency sponsored by the Department of Health and Social Care. The agency is responsible for protecting communities from the effects of infectious diseases, chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear incidents and other health threats, and it provides intellectual, scientific and operational leadership at national and local level, as well as on the global stage. The co-project manager for BUiLD, Michael Fuller, who leads on the development of institutional disaster preparedness and response capability, is currently Chief of Staff at UKHSA. Retrorocket | 123rf Powerful networks survival, development and welfare that are the concern The webinar was moderated by Dr David Rubens, Executive Director of the ISRM, Member of CRJ’s of the UN. UNU works with leading universities and Advisory Panel and also a member of the Advisory Board for BUiLD. The ISRM was established to create research institutes in UN member states and functions as a global networking and knowledge exchange platform where practitioners, academics and policymakers can a bridge between the international academic community come together to share information, help progress and promote the underlying understanding and capabilities and the UN system. The institution contributes to capacity associated with strategic risk and crisis management, as well as to develop their own personal and professional building and acts a gateway to systemic risk information. networks. Through its training platform, the ISRM is able to embed new insights and frameworks emerging UNU’s network of from practice into discipline-specific training and academic programmes at undergraduate and postgraduate Patrick Lagadec institutes include, for level. Debating approaches towards bridging the gap example, the Institute for between academia and practice is a frequent agenda item at international webinars facilitated by the ISRM. warns that 90 per cent the Advanced Study of Sustainability in Tokyo, In summary, the webinar brought together representatives of powerful national, regional and global of problems are no the International Institute networks whose initiatives are based on similar principles longer solvable with for Global Health in Kuala and a shared vision. Discussions led to three principal Lumpur and the Institute outcomes. First, they highlighted the need for knowledge sharing to inform an intellectual discourse that can conventional solutions for Water, Environment advance the crisis and disaster management discipline to and Health in Hamilton, the level of capability needed to manage unprecedented threats and crises. Second, they have given direction for Canada. Key questions organising future multi-agency and multi-stakeholder collaborations in a way that is meaningful, built on raised by Szarzynski revolved around the best mechanisms synergistic working and aimed at exploiting the scalability of solutions. Finally, it has created a stepping stone for developing disaster resilience competencies and towards the further consolidation of global expertise and collaboration efforts in crisis and disaster management. interconnected solutions for interconnected risk factors. ■ To listen to the CRJ webinar, visit crisis-response.com/listen ■ For information about the BUiLD project, visit disasterresilience.eu The final panellist, Louise Davidson (CRJ 15:3, 16:3 ■ BUiLD is funded by the Erasmus+ Capacity Building in Higher Education Programme: 610447-EPP-1-2019-1-UK-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP and CRJ blogs online), presented insights into her Author current doctoral research as an example of developing NADINE SULKOWSKI F ISRM is leading the Erasmus+ BUiLD Project and is a Senior Lecturer in the Gloucestershire Business School, UK 94 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

www.risk-in.com 4 tehdition MEDIA PARTNER Events for risk professionals Zurich, Switzerland Sheraton Hotel, 19 & 20 May, 2022 Security Insurance Resilience Risk management Btorebaekttethr me sainloasge risks! Truly multidisciplinary, transverse and interactive conference PLATINUM SPONSORS GOLD SPONSORS SILVER SPONSORS BRONZE SPONSORS -25% until 30.04.2022 with code: RISKIN25CRJ

At the forefront of innovations and trends 123rf MILIPOL QATAR is a leading exhibition of the key players involved in the Middle East Homeland Security sector. Under the authority of the Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, Milipol Qatar is held biennially in Doha. The event has become the largest international exhibition in the region dedicated to Homeland Security and Civil Defence, becoming a globally renowned security and safety event. Milipol Qatar is aimed at professionals from the whole security industry. The 2021 edition hosted more than 150 exhibitors hailing from 17 countries and almost 8,000 visitors from more than 60 countries. Milipol Qatar’s success is enhanced by the quality of the technologies showcased at the exhibition. Participants can take advantage of the event’s reputation to present their latest innovations and products related to homeland security. In addition, a content-rich conference programme aims to discover new trends and discuss the issues of security market key topics. Last year’s programme focused on cybersecurity and cyberthreats, civil defence and large events security management. The event enables all industry players to meet up in a fast-developing environment and conduct economic or strategic projects on a medium or long-term basis. The 14th International Event for Homeland Security & Civil Defence, Milipol Qatar, will be held at the Doha Exhibition & Convention Centre from May 24 to 26 this year. ■ Register at milipolqatar.com Prioritising risks: Advice for organisations OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS, several organisations each had their own specialities; Antoine was more expert in have confused the management of processes linked to crisis weather forecasting and choosing the right route, while Julien had management, business continuity management and risk developed his expertise more on the mechanical side of things. management. We have witnessed decision-makers failing to understand emergencies that need to be dealt with immediately They learned how to manage immediate crises such as completely in order to lower the impact of risks, such as supply chain torn sails, along with long term challenges such as following the right disruptions linked to Covid developments versus the assessment path to win the race. Winning, by the way, was not on their agenda. of water scarcity, and their effect on long term production assets. There were more than 200 supporters in a WhatsApp At this year’s Risk-!n Conference, organisations and group who followed and encouraged the two brothers individuals will be helped so that they can address priorities in real time. It was a breath-taking adventure. to increase value of their organisations, implement positive resilience processes and help achieve societal goals. At Risk-!n Conference 2022, the organisers will address all human, process and system aspects of resilience, security insurance and risk The conference co-founder, Stéphane Martin, uses the management (see pages 31, 34, 36). example of his business partner Antoine Lacombe and his ■ Risk-!n takes place in Zurich, Switzerland from May 19 to 20. Visit risk-in.com brother Julien to illustrate the importance of prioritising risks. 123rf One year ago, they decided to participate in the Transquadra 2022; a sailing race crossing the Atlantic from Marseilles in France with a stop at Funchal, Madeira for the first stage and then from Funchal to Marin in the French West Indies. After 15 days, 11 hours, 34 minutes and 28 seconds of sleepless nights, a cabin drenched by huge waves, tough winds, being hit by flying fish, torn sails, electricity breakdowns, four sail changes during the night and many other things too numerous to mention, they arrived and although it was their first attempt at the race, they won against 70 other boats. How could they achieve this feat without perfect risk management, resilience and maybe a bit of recklessness? Public and private organisations should take this as an example. The two brothers were prepared for the unexpected and they had to face it every day and night. They had to back each other up constantly, but 96 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

events A window on expertise and innovation April 4 – 5, 2022 June 1, 2022 CBRNe Summit Asia, Bangkok, Community Risk Reduction THIS YEAR’S EENA CONFERENCE will see more Thailand Leadership Conference, Canada than 100 public safety sector specialists come together to intelligence-sec.com iafc.org discuss and debate high-level regulatory matters, technical issues and innovative products on the market. April 12 – 14, 2022 June 13 – 17, 2022 International Federations Summit, Eurosatory 2022, Paris, France Following last year’s successful in-person event, the Lausanne, Switzerland eurosatory.com conference will follow three diverse tracks. The first morning’s majoreventsinternational.com schedule includes an analysis of the rescue of Danish footballer June 20 – 25, 2022 Christian Eriksen while on the field during UEFA’s Euro 2020 April 27 – 29, 2022 Interschutz, Hannover, Germany championship and an exploration of how emergency medical EENA Conference 2022, interschutz.de services dealt with the 2020 Beirut explosion in Lebanon. Marseilles, France eenaconference.org June 28 – 30, 2022 CRJ Advisory Panel Members, Eric McNulty and David SEDEC, Ankara, Turkey Wales will be presenting on practical insights for leading May 2 – 20, 2022 sedecturkey.com through turbulent times and the human experience in video HNPW, Geneva, Switzerland communication with PSAPs, respectively, while Mladen vosocc.unocha.org July 6 – 8, 2022 Vratonjic will chair a session on mission critical control rooms. Eighth International Conference May 11 – 12, 2022 on Flood & Urban Water The CRJ recently hosted a webinar (crisis-response.com/listen) European Police Congress, Berlin, Management, Milan, Italy featuring a presentation from Rut Erdelyi, European Director of Germany wessex.ac.uk the Resilience Advisors Network – a CRJ Key Network Partner. At European-police.eu the conference, Rut will be chairing a session on strengthening the August 24 – 26, 2022 engagement of civil society in transforming disaster management, May 17 – 19, 2022 Fire-Rescue International, San involving an insight into European projects that are working FIREX International, London, UK Antonio, Texas, USA towards stronger, safer communities and increased resilience. firex.co.uk iafc.org The exhibition area will host more than 35 suppliers, May 17 – 19, 2022 September 6 – 8, 2022 all showcasing their latest technologies and solutions for IFSEC International, London, UK Commercial UAV Expo Americas, emergency response and public safety. This, along with the ifsecglobal.com Las Vegas, USA social events, will provide the perfect opportunity to renew expouav.com acquaintances and network with peers in an informal setting. May 17 – 19, 2022 Intelligent Building Europe, September 7 – 8, 2022 There is also the 112 Awards Ceremony, where citizens, London, UK International Conference on responders and emergency services are recognised for intelligentbuildingeurope.com Sustainable Development 2022, their outstanding contributions to public safety. Rome, Italy May 18 – 20, 2022 ecsdev.org This year’s conference should appeal to those in the field of Milipol Asia-Pacific 2022, emergency services and public authority, supplier organisations, Singapore September 19 – 22, 2022 researchers and telecom regulators, as well as officials from EU milipolasiapacific.com Asia-Pacific Ministerial institutions. Conference on DRR 2022, ■ The conference will take place in Marseilles, France, from April 27 to 29 this year. May 19 – 20, 2022 Brisbane, Australia For more information, visit eenaconference.org Risk-!n Fourth Edition, Zurich, undrr.org Switzerland Strengthening dialogue in the security sector risk-in.com October 4 – 6, 2022 CBRNe Summit USA, Denver, THE EUROPEAN POLICE CONGRESS is an international May 23 – 28, 2022 Colorado, USA congress for decision-makers from police forces, security Global Platform for Disaster Risk intelligence-sec.com authorities and industries. Its intention is to strengthen the Reduction, Bali, Indonesia dialogue between the authorities and enable the participants undrr.org October 12 – 14, 2022 to establish new contacts to colleagues from all over Europe. 13th Conference on Risk Analysis, May 24 – 26, 2022 Hazard Mitigation and Safety & Every year critical discussions on up-to-date issues are Milipol Qatar, Dohar, Qatar Security Engineering, Rome, Italy held and the latest developments in technologies for the en.milipolqatar.com wessex.ac.uk professional use in the security sector are presented by the exhibitors. The European Police Congress is the largest May 24 – 26, 2022 October 22 – 23, 2022 conference for internal security in the European Union. Explosive Ordinance Seminar, Seventh National Conference for Budva, Montenegro Promoting DRR, Kobe, Japan Held annually, the conference is a meeting place for intelligence-sec.com preventionweb.net experts from more than 20 countries. Representatives of polices, border polices, secret services as well as governments, See more dates on our online calendar parliaments and industries participate in the conference. at www.crisis-response.com The European Police Congress will take place in Berlin, Germany from May 11 to 12. Key points include: An international platform for the executive level of European politics; keynote speeches by the interior ministers; a meeting point for political and police decision- makers; and attendance of interior ministers, European delegates, secretaries of state, government officials, police and border guard authorities, as well as executive committees of companies. ■ For more information, visit european-police.eu Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 97

frontline Climbing the career ladder Elton Cunha speaks to Senior Sergeant Samira Coelho dos Santos of the Military Fire Department of the State of Santa Catarina in Brazil about her professional life and what she wants from the future Coelho dos Santos has been in service she has always been always fascinated by the military for 16 years as a Military Firefighter world. Coelho dos Santos continues: “At the time I was and is currently in the role of Senior studying at university, and I earned an internship position Sergeant. Her work entails administration in a military firefighting organisation. Consequently, and operational activities at the 3rd I began to learn about the activity of firefighters.” Military Fire Brigade of the Seventh Military Fire Battalion of the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. However, there was a problem. “Unfortunately, at the time of my internship, there were no vacancies Coelho dos Santos says: “The administration activity for women,” she notes. Fortunately, in 2005, positions is basically linked to the management of the institution’s finally opened up for women and Coelho dos Santos human resources, both at the company’s headquarters applied for a public contest. She passed the first and in the five cities that are part of this district. class of women in the Military Fire Department. “Regarding operational activity, I work in firefighting Her involvement in the administrative side of her role and search and rescue on land, in the air or on the water.” includes the management of human resources such as shifts, daily activities, vacations and leave, as well as She never intended to become a firefighter, but says community services that the volunteers provide. And on the operational side, she says: “There are basic activities that are activated on the emergency number such as traffic accidents, firefighting, search and rescue and, as Barra Velha is a coastal city, I also work in water search and rescue on the beaches of our region.” People management Coelho dos Santos describes her great daily challenge as being: “Related to people management, working with continuous improvement, listening to the needs of the troops, understanding their desires and meeting the expectations of an activity that involves daily risk.” She is highly motivated by the possibility of risking her life to help people and assisting in the day-to-day running of the Fire Department. As for the main downsides that she lives with at work, Coelho dos Santos explains: “These are related to life and livelihoods. In every incident where we cannot help the victim in time; it generates frustration and sadness, even when lives have not been lost, but there has been the destruction of people’s assets.” When asked about her plans for the future, Coelho dos Santos replies enigmatically: “Professionally, I plan to climb the career ladder and I aim to develop the institution in terms of people management skills and excellent services, especially in search and rescue and also in firefighting.” Author ELTON CUNHA is Municipal Director of Barra Velha Municipal Civil Defence, Brazil, and a Member of CRJ’s Advisory Panel Coelho dos Santos is highly motivated by the reality of risking her life to help people and listening to her team’s needs Thiago Rodrigues dos Santos 98 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

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