Oregon Agent Fall 2020

Official publication of the Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of Oregon OREGON AGENT FALL 2020 Connectors Way: Exclusive Program for Agency Members Invest: Turning Education into Future Opportunity Opportunity Knocks The Future of Office Real Estate

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Fall 2020 CONTENTS Page 6 Page 12 OREGON AGENT Page 21 Big I Oregon Office 5 Message from the Big I Oregon President Mark Atkinson 6 Centerpointe Drive, #430 6 Opportunity Knocks – Steve Smelley Lake Oswego, OR 97035 8 Big I Oregon Leadership 10 Thank You 2020 Partners Phone: 503-274-4000 12 Message from the Big I Oregon Executive Director Tyra Dressel Fax: 503-274-0062 14-15 The Connectors Way: A New Exclusive Big I Oregon Program Toll Free: 866-774-4226 for Agency Members in 2021 Big I Oregon Staff Directory 16-19 2021 Premier Partner Program “COVID-19 Edition” Executive Director 21 The Future of Office Real Estate Tyra Dressel 24 Invest: Turning Education into Future Opportunity 26 NextGen (Formerly Young Agents) [email protected] 28 Virtual Ugly Sweater Holiday Party 29 Following the Science Difficult in a World of Tradeoffs Director of Member Services LeeAnn Smelley ADVERTISER INDEX Applied Underwriters 32 Mutual of Enumclaw 31 auw.com/us 13 mutualofenumclaw.com 20 [email protected] Berkshire Hathaway Guard Preferred Property Program 20 guard.com/apply 3 ppp-quotes.com Director of Agency E&O EMC 2 RT Specialty 7 Melissa Reed emcins.com 20 rtspecialty.com Griffin Underwriting Services Western National [email protected] goGus.com wnins.com Imperial PFS RLI Administrator ipfs.com April Pitz [email protected] Big I Oregon Lobbyist Roger Beyer [email protected] Cover photo: www.istockphoto.com/Nick Wiltgen The Oregon Agent is a publication of the Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers of Oregon and is published quarterly by Blue Water Publishers, LLC. Big I Oregon reserves the right in its sole discretion to reject advertising that does not meet Big I Oregon qualifications or which may detract from its business, professional or ethical standards. Big I Oregon and Blue Water Publishers, LLC do not necessarily endorse any of the companies advertising in the publication or the views of its writers. The publisher cannot assume responsibility for claims made by advertisers, content provided by the editor, or for the opinions expressed by contributing authors. For more information on advertising, contact : Eric Johnson Blue Water Publishers, LLC phone: 414.708.2059 fax: 414.354.5317 [email protected] 4 Big I Oregon • Fall 2020

FROM THE BIG I OREGON PRESIDENT Mark Atkinson Founder, CEO Atkinson Insurance Group I I want to thank Big I Oregon members for the opportunity to branding and marketing to answering agent’s questions serve as your 2020/2021 president. I have enjoyed serving through the help of Virtual University, as well as Big I on the board for the past eight years and I am excited about Market products. Perhaps the greatest resource the Big I the year ahead of us. Much has been accomplished this offers is their lobbying efforts on a national level. We are past year and by all indications, the momentum isn’t slowing certain to face issues over the coming years that will present down. It’s going to be a great year. challenges to our industry and agencies. The lobbying done through our political action committee, InsurPac, helps to Great year? In light of all that has happened this year, I may keep the independent agency system strong and viable. I’d sound overly optimistic. Yes, we are in the midst of a global like to encourage all of our members to join me this year in pandemic and one of the most severe wildfire seasons contributing to InsurPac is only as strong as the support they that our state has ever encountered. The members of Big receive through agents and carriers.   I Oregon are resilient, resourceful and ready to help those that we serve: our clients and policyholders.  My agency is built upon the cornerstone of community service and giving back. I invite you to join me this year and Over the past year, Executive Director Tyra Dressel and give your time and talent to the association. Make this the Director of Member Services LeeAnn Smelley worked year you attend an additional event, serve on a committee or tirelessly to serve us. They have created a new website, start something new. If you have any questions or concerns, converted our database to a new and improved system and please feel free to contact myself or our association staff. created the Premier Partner Program, to name just a few projects. There are more projects in the works and we will Sincerely, make sure to keep you posted as they come about.     Mark Atkinson Founder/CEO  There are several reasons I believe our association is in Atkinson Insurance Group store for a great year ahead. First, is the Premier Partner Program. The program delivers more value to both our www.istockphoto.com/ smshoot partners and our membership by allowing our partners to support, connect and engage with our agency members in a unique and innovative way throughout the entire year.   Second, I want to praise the Young Agents Committee, now Big I OR Next Gen, for what was a successful year. Along with providing unique continuing education opportunities and socializing, they have a reputation for doing so well; they also bring great value to agents across the state. Through networking, collaboration and community involvement, our Young Agents really shine. I have attended several of the Young Agent activities and can say firsthand, you don’t want to miss out on what they have to offer.   Lastly, because of the renewed and strengthened relationships we have built with Big I on a national level, I feel the momentum won’t be stopped. The resources that are offered by the Big I are incredible. They range from Fall 2020 • Big I Oregon 5

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS By Steve Smelley, CEO/Founder Goldfinch Consulting Everywhere I go and every Zoom Meeting I attend, there is a www.istockphoto.com/ EtiAmmos common question that often comes up, “When will business get back to normal”? We all have hopes for a vaccine and a cure to COVID. We have hopes for fires to be doused, smoke to clear, riots and looting to cease. We long for a better world where all people are treated fairly and without fear. We long for a world where our elected leaders represent the interest of the people and treat our tax dollars as if they were coming out of their own pocket. We would love to end homelessness and poverty, cure mental illness, deliver effective and efficient education, resolve transportation issues, deliver clean water and clean air for all and tackle many other noble causes for our society. Some are looking forward to the days of more intimate social interaction and doing anything to connect that involves something other than staring into a computer screen. Some of us would be happy to just get out of the house or out of bed in the morning. We long for the days of opportunity. The opportunity to grow, to learn, to contribute and to build something we are passionate about. I believe that that time is RIGHT NOW! Sometimes we forget the value we bring to our clients, our The only thing stopping you is the person in the mirror. employees and our communities through the collective work of our industry. The truth is that the independent agency system is chock Our industry has historically been one of the best at building full of difference makers. From the carriers providing product to relationships and restoring a sense of balance, calm and peace of underwrite risks, to the InsureTech providers who are making things mind when everything has otherwise been lost. We were built for easier, faster and cheaper to bring quality products to market, to this! This is our time! I challenge each of you to stop waiting for the the premium finance companies that help bridge the cashflow of world to “get back to normal” but to fight every day to build a better insuring risks, to the claims payers and premium payors and the world. Reach out to a client and ask how you can help them. Reach best distribution system on the planet, the independent agents and out to a colleague and let them know that you appreciate them. brokers, our industry makes a difference. Reach out to a stranger and show them the value of abundant thinking, gratitude and connection. Build bridges and better more Clients need our help in identifying, quantifying, mitigating and intimate relationships. Challenge the assumptions that better is not addressing all types of risks from the mundane to the emerging possible. I am proud to work in the best industry and with the best and undiscovered. I would argue that there has never been a distribution system. Please join me better time to establish and articulate our value than in times of in my quests to make new difference chaos and uncertainty. This is OUR time to shine! This is the time in today’s new world. I have faith in to provide true value and grow our businesses through helping YOU! We are fiercely independent but others. much stronger together. Opportunity is knocking. It’s time to answer the door. When we take the time to challenge our old beliefs, we can find new solutions and add new value. If you are waiting for the world Steve Smelley is past president of Big to change, wouldn’t you much rather get up and change the world? I Oregon. This is the time to double down. Invest in your talent because it will pay dividends. Take care of your clients and staff so that they can take care of you. I’ve seen too many individuals and businesses pivot and grow this year to believe that anything less than that should be expected. I am not saying it is easy, but it is possible. 6 Big I Oregon • Fall 2020

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Board of Directors Executive Committee Mark Atkinson Lyndsay Kooistra Russ Schweikert President President - Elect Vice President Vice President, LaPorte Insurance Ashland Insurance, Inc., President, Atkinson Insurance Group Portland, Oregon - 18 years Ashland, Oregon – 26 years Portland, Oregon - 38 years Debbie Flores Bob Rosson Ed Davis Past President Finance Chair National Director KPD Insurance, Inc. President, Timmco Insurance Maps Insurance Services Springfield, Oregon - 33 years Portland, Oregon – 26 years Salem, Oregon - 55 years Board of Directors Tyra Dressel TJ Sullivan Michelle Gallardo Executive Director Legislative Chair NextGen Chair, Lake Oswego, Oregon - 27 years The Partner’s Group 17 BH Insurance Portland, Oregon - 17 years 8 Big I Oregon • Fall 2020 Salem, Oregon - 23 years

Board of Directors, Continued... Dallas Ross Kriston Correll Tim Cundari Past NextGen Chair, PayneWest Insurance JUUL Insurance Agency, Cundari Insurance North Bend, Oregon – 22 years Portland, Oregon - 26 years Beaverton, Oregon - 6 years Trish Fulwiler Greg Horner Marty Kantola President, J.D. Fulwiler & Co. Commercial Lines Producer, Owner, Chet Hill Insurance Portland, Oregon - 24 years Portland, Oregon - 37 years Insurance Partners, LLC Portland, Oregon - 31 years Steve LaCesa Matthew Pidcock John Powell Owner, Oak Tree Insurance Co-Owner, Valley Insurance Owner / Agent, Hopp Insurance Lake Oswego, Oregon - 37 years LaGrande, Oregon - 17 years Newberg, Oregon - 11 years Brett Slater Steve Smelley Jennie Weiland President, Slater & Assoc. Insurance, Inc. President & CEO Goldfinch Consulting PayneWest Insurance/Managing Director, Tualatin, Oregon - 26 years Beaverton, Oregon - 31 years Small Business Beaverton, Oregon - 20 years Insurance carriers and service providers do not serve on the Big I Oregon board of directors, but support the association as Associate Members, Allied Members and Premier Partners. If you want to learn more about the Big I Oregon, or if you would like to get involved, please contact any of these individuals.  If you are not a member, please email LeeAnn Smelley, [email protected] for information on membership. Fall 2020 • Big I Oregon 9

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FROM THE BIG I OREGON EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Tyra Dressel I It is hard to believe that summer is long behind us, the and Rothert at Gold; Capital Premium Finance, PuroClean, weather has changed and we are now over eight months Red Shield, Saif and Travelers at Silver; and Acuity, into doing life and work COVID style. What I have found Chubb, Mid Valley General Agency, Mutual Of Enumclaw, most rewarding during my first year as Executive Director Superior Underwriters and United Fire Group at Bronze is the ability for our association to be so responsive to (as of 10/9/2020). This year we were able to get our our members’ needs. We’ve had historical events and 2021 guide out early to appeal to budget planning that I’d say Big I Oregon has shown up in a big way to serve many of our carriers and vendors do in the fall. We are our members. 2020 has delivered many obstacles to the incredibly grateful to our Premier Partners, without them association, including the first time we have had to cancel we could not serve our members with quality education the Annual Convention in Eagle Crest. But beyond the (our program was once again awarded the Diamond level, obstacles have also come many successes. For instance, Excellence in Insurance Education award) and events as in early September, in just a few short days we were able to well as creating a collaboration that has been especially turn committed convention add-on sponsor dollars into gift noteworthy this past year. In effort to get ahead of the cards for families impacted by the wildfires. Our Stomp Out curve and be pro-active we have hired Patrick Galvin to the Flames initiative raised a combined $10,250 with Red bring our members an exclusive, The Virtual Connector’s Shield, Capital Premium Finance, Mutual of Enumclaw Way. We’ve anticipated that we are in for several more and Big I National’s Trusted Choice Disaster Relief Grant. months of limited “gathering” and we’ve put together a We’ve been able to support our member agencies across year long program that is sure to keep our members at the state who were working night and day to deliver the top of their craft. The first three quarterly events will empathic service that only local, independent agents can be virtual and we will determine later if the last quarter deliver! A true testament to #strongertogether. will convert to face-to-face. One thing we have learned is flexibility is the cornerstone of succeeding during difficult Our 2021 Premier Partner Program Guide is now times. LeeAnn Smelley, [email protected], our published and being distributed. We’ve already gained Director of Membership Services, heads up the Premier steam with the following companies who have “Partnered Partner Program. She will be more than happy to share the Up”: Safeco/Liberty at Diamond Plus; BBSI at Diamond; benefits partnership has to offer. Imperial PFS and Kennedy at Platinum; Oregon Mutual www.istockphoto.com/ matejmo 12 Big I Oregon • Fall 2020

A significant relationship that has been crucial to our state’s group is known for. Please reach out to Michelle Gallardo, success is Big I National’s continued devotion to our state [email protected], the new chair of NextGen, as well as association. They continue to deliver unparalleled resources, Tyler Ross, [email protected], the membership chair, legislative advocacy and showing up for Oregon when we’ve if you’d like more information on how to get involved with this needed it the most. We are proud to be co-branded with amazing group. national so that our agency members will have easy brand recognition in the independent agency system. They created Gary Githens, a long time board member and advocate a video, that we launched at our August Pivot event, which of the independent agent, has officially retired and our highlights many of the resources available to our members. August board meeting was his last. Thank you, Gary, for This video is now available for viewing and you can find your years of service and valuable insight you shared with it on our Facebook site as well as on our website www. our association. We appreciate you and all you have given bigioregon.com. And if you haven’t checked out our new over the years! Our August board meeting also welcomed membership Hub please do so. This is where you can keep three new board members: Jennie Weiland, PayneWest your employee log-ins up to date and insure that everyone in Insurance, Tim Cundari, Cundari Insurance and Michelle your agency is taking advantage of the resources included Gallardo, The Partners Group. in your membership. I’m looking forward to 2021 as a year of continued growth Our most recent change has been the Young Agent’s and innovation as we forge ahead with the new knowledge Committee updating their look and outreach to rebranding that the lessons of this past year have taught us. Continue to as the Big I OR NextGen. As the next generation of be safe and stay healthy. insurance professionals, they felt this name change more aptly encouraged all professionals in our industry to join in Tyra Dressel the unique networking and give back opportunities that this Big I Oregon, Executive Director AmGUARD • EastGUARD • NorGUARD • WestGUARD CWoomrkpeerns’sation We distinguish our Workers’ Compensation coverage by providing value-added services before, during, and after a claim. We’ve been successfully protecting our policyholders and their employees for decades. Up-front loss control measures Responsive claims handling Facilitation of quality medical care (when an accident does occur) Our Workers’ Compensation policy is available nationwide except in North Dakota, Ohio, Washington, and Wyoming. APPLY TO BE AN AGENT: WWW.GUARD.COM/APPLY/ Fall 2020 • Big I Oregon 13

The Connector's Way : Exclusive Member Program for 2021 Brought to you by Presented by Patrick Galvin  Save the Dates! Galavanizing Group January 12th (virtual) April 13th (virtual) July 13th (TBD) October 12th (TBD) Register at www. bigioregon.com/education 14 Big I Oregon • Fall 2020

The Connector’s Way: A New Exclusive Big I Oregon Program for Agency Members in 2021 By Patrick Galvin As the end of the calendar year comes into sight, I am very pleased to look ahead to 2021 and announce an exciting collaboration with Big I Oregon and its partners in which agency members will have exclusive access to the curriculum and materials of The Connector’s Way. First, a bit of background. The Connector’s Way is a philosophy and a methodology born of the belief that strong relationships are the key to personal and professional success. It is also the title of my book, a parable that follows the journey of a struggling independent insurance There will be three additional interactive presentations agency owner who discovers seven simple yet powerful rules for building business one relationship at a time. throughout the year (April, July, and October), each one highlighting the relatiTohneshCiponbnueildcitnogr'ssuWccaeyss: stories of If you have read my book or attended one of my past Big I Oregon Emxecmlubseirvse. MMoeremovbeerr, aPlrl omgermamberfsorw2ill0h2a1ve Big I Oregon presentations, you know that I emphasize aCcocnensescttoor’tsheWaauydOionvlienreBsriSoonyusgotehfmtmtywohbyiocoohukwbaiylsl well as The the value and importance of getting out of the office or be available stepping away from your desk to build relationships face through December 31, 2021. to face. This year has certainly thrown a wrench into What is The Connector’s Way Online System? It is a things, hasn’t it? powerful online learning curriculum consisting of a series What has not changed since COVID-19, however, are the of short videos (each between two and five minutes fundamentals of relationship building. In fact, they align Presloenngt)edabdydrPeastsriincgk Gimalpvoinrt ant relationship bSuialdvineg ttohpeicsD. ates! perfectly with the core values of Big I Oregon: Support, TheGaslayvsatneimzingreGsriodueps on a state-of-the-art platform that is Connect, and Engage. Thanks to Big I Oregon and its fully optimized for desktop computers, laJpatonpusa,ryta1b2lethts(,virtual) Diamond Plus, Diamond, and Platinum 2021 partners, I am and smartphones — making it easy for everyoAnperiiln13ytohu(rvirtual) delighted to have the opportunity to share the principles of agency to proceed through the curriculum at thJeuirlyo1w3nth (TBD) October 12th (TBD) The Connector’s Way with a comprehensive program that pace. kicks off this coming January. Register at More details will follow, but highlights include: I am honored to be partnwerwinwg. wbiigthiorBeigoIn.Ocoremg/oend,ucitsation partners, and members, and look forward to going “all in” with you to make 2021 the most interactive and engaging An interactive 60-minute online presentation titled year ever! The Virtual Connector’s Way: How to Build Business Relationships When You Can’t Meet Face to Face. Patrick Galvin (patrickgalvin.com) is a TEDx speaker, presenter, and business relationship building coach who Scheduled for January, the presentation will include a wrote “The Connector’s Way: A Story About Building Business One Relationship at a Time.” It is the only panel of Big I Oregon leaders who will share their best bestselling business parable that features an independent insurance agency owner as its main character. practices. I will also give attendees multiple opportunities to connect and engage using a variety of collaborative online tools. Fall 2020 • Big I Oregon 15



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OUT-THINK. IPFS Connect® Flexible Payment OUT-WORK. Mobile App Options OUT-EXECUTE. eForms Cancellation REPEAT. Avoidance Tools The industry veterans at RT Specialty are precisely the ones to help you Agency Management IPFS Credit navigate the wholesale specialty and MGA marketplace. RT Specialty System Integrations Advantage leads the way in providing specialty insurance services, proven leadership, extensive industry experience and quality services to retail agents. CONTACT: DARREN EVERSOLE | 503.957.5460 | [email protected] Sue Brennan, President Visit us today at ipfs.com or follow us on social D: 425-954-2322 media for news and updates on Imperial PFS. Or contact your local RT broker at rtspecialty.com Access to products and services described herein may be subject to change and are subject to IPFS’s standard terms and conditions in all respects, including the terms and conditions specifically applicable to use of IPFS’s website and mobile application and IPFS’s eForms Disclosure and Consent Agreement. Copyright 2020 © IPFS Corporation. All rights reserved Preferred Property Program can help you procure Umbrella coverage for your insureds with an AXV A.M. Best rated carrier for the following types of risks: Developer Sponsored Boards Master Associations High-rise Associations & Apartments to 35 stories are eligible and more Limit options ranging from $5 million to $50 million Coverage can include excess D&O ● General Liability ● Auto ● Employee Benefits Employers Liability, Including Employment Practices Liability* (*if covered under the D&O) Follow Form EPLI is available only up to $25 Million limit AURA In 2016 we partnered with American Union Risk Underwriters (AURA) located in Florida. With our new partner we can now also o er our comprehensive Umbrella, with unsurpassed service and for the following types of risks: Hotels ● Motels ● Timeshares ● Lessor’s Risk Enclosed Malls Shopping Centers Retail ● O ce Buildings ● Warehouses ● Light Industrial Apartments Limit options ranging from $5 million to $100 million For information on our AURA program, contact our experienced underwriter Tom Clementi at 877-506-1430 or visit our website, www.aurains.com A subsidiary of For more information contact our team of Underwriters 101 Crawfords Corner Road, Suite 1300 Holmdel, NJ 07733 888-548-2465 www.ppp-quotes.com 20 Big I Oregon • Fall 2020

THE FUTURE OF By Bill Conerly, PhD OFFICE REAL ESTATE Connecting the Dots Between Economy and Business As written for Forbes Magazine When the Covid-19 pandemic is over, offices will still be used—but differently. Companies and their employees will have more options, and thus diversity of locations and uses will dominate the business world. We have learned about possibilities that we didn’t imagine in 2019, the good old days. Remote work has proved to be far more viable than we realized, even in the eyes of last year’s greatest skeptics of “work from home.” (An earlier article explored the implications of this for residential real estate.) But many business leaders also lament the loss of face- to-face meetings. Remote communications works best with occasional real live conversations. That’s true both for one-on-one relations as well as small group meetings. The creativity that can come from an in-person meeting was lost. Alex Conant and Terry Sullivan of Firehouse Strategies wrote in the Wall Street Journal, “Online video conferences are no substitute for the creativity that happens when a group of smart people get together in person. Trust between colleagues can easily break down outside the office.” From a management perspective, the old way of working may seem best. But the picture is different from an employee retention and recruiting viewpoint. Some people liked working from home. Some people had mixed feelings: they didn’t much care for working from home but were happy to skip the commute. The preferences of these employees are important. Before the pandemic, the United States (and many other countries) faced an extremely tight labor market. Continued on page 22 >> Fall 2020 • Big I Oregon 21

<< Continued from page 21 The demographics for employers were ugly. The scariest chart for business in the coming decade showed virtually no growth in the working age population between 2020 and 2030. But since those last Census Bureau projections, foreign immigration into the United States has plummeted, so businesses will once again face a labor shortage. The tight labor market means that every company work requirement has a cost in employee retention and recruitment. Only work requirements that add value to the business are worth the cost. If the company gets as much done with an employee working from home four out of five days, and the employee is happier, that’s what the successful business will allow. We’ll have some people working from home most days, while others will want to return to the office for social connections. And now consider those with mixed feelings. Plenty of people don’t want to work from home. They have other people and animals in the house, or they don’t want an obligation to keep the background of video calls tidy. Yet commuting is a drag, whether by car or train or bus. The ideal for these folks might be a desk in a local co-working space five minutes from home, plus one day a week at the central office. The cost of downtown real estate is high enough that renting a suburban co-working space for a worker is a good deal. At least, it’s a good deal if the company does not also reserve space for that employee downtown. With many folks spending a few days a week working remotely, office space can be downsized. The company will need to juggle different needs from different groups, such as the marketing team working together in the office on Mondays, finance on Tuesdays, and so forth. 22 Big I Oregon • Fall 2020

Adam Segal concurs with this vision of diversity of work Technology will be needed in many directions. Some companies locations, and argues that businesses will have to be more need to work on their current tech support for remote work. intentional about how and why employees interact with one Plenty of employees who want to work from home—which will another. Segal is the founder and CEO of Cove, a technology save the company money—need better internet connections firm helping companies and property managers organize and hardware. Many businesses will have to add technology and operate office space. He says that the casual hallway to coordinate use of the reduced space, including scheduling conversation that results in a great new idea doesn’t really of different spaces. Some companies may have sufficiently happen much. Team leaders will have to be more intentional flexible space that on the days when their own employees are about bringing employees together for creative collaboration. not using it, other companies’ employees will be able to. That may sometimes involve quick emails or text messages, or short meetings on office days, and sometimes lengthier Scheduling software will be vital. The nuts and bolts of meetings. managing office space in the new environment may not be a core corporate function. In fact, it may make sense to outsource We who are veterans of corporate staff meetings know that operations to a company specializing in such work, a niche that they sometimes constitute a series of one-on-one discussions Segal’s company is moving into. The office of the future will be with the boss, totally irrelevant to the rest of the team. Good based on some core concepts. People vary in their preferences. managers must understand when group discussions will be The labor market will be tight, so managers must not demand valuable and who should attend those discussions, without things of employees that don’t add value to the company. And, wasting other employees’ time. What will it take to get from in Segal’s words, “Real estate is value-less unless people use where we are to that future office model? Segal begins with it.” companies understanding what their space needs really are as we come out of the pandemic. He expects many companies to wait until lease renewals to re-think their needs, though I recommend that executives start the process much earlier. Fall 2020 • Big I Oregon 23

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NextGen OREGON V IRHTOULAILDAUYGLTYRI SWE AT ER VIA NI TE! DECEMBER 3RD, 2020 5-7PM | VIRTUAL EVENT REGISTER AT WWW.BIGIOREGON.COM/EVENTS 28 Big I Oregon • Fall 2020 TRIVIA UGLY SWEATER CONTEST MAKE A WISH FUNDRAISER

FOLLOWING THE SCIENCE DIFFICULT IN A WORLD OF TRADEOFFS By Bill Conerly As written for Forbes Magazine LEADERSHIP STRATEGY I connect the dots between the economy ... and business! “Follow the science” sounds like a wise course of action in the populations, so that cannot be ignored. COVID-19 pandemic, or for climate change and a host of other difficult issues. Business leaders trying to anticipate government And how should quality of life be weighed against mortality risk? policy would do well to understand where science is taking People’s preferences tend not to prioritize life above all else. politicians. But the simple mantra of follow the science misses the People engage in dangerous activities such as rock climbing, key lesson of economics: choices are about trade-offs. hang gliding and scuba diving. People engage in risky occupations that pay higher wages, including fishing, logging and roofing. Few We cannot have everything we want. That is a fundamental principle people eat a diet calculated for longevity, preferring some risk of of economics presented in Chapter One of most textbooks, but it’s health problems to the pleasures of sweets and red meat. also true far afield from economics. If we want to spend more time with family, we have to give up time doing other things. If we want Given people’s preferences, as demonstrated by their actual longer life expectancy, we have to give up some risky behaviors. choices, following the science should reflect the pleasure that That fundamental economics principle makes following the science people get from risky activities, even if that risk involves COVID-19. impossible. The most common criticism of science-based policy is that scientists don’t fully understand the problem. There’s truth in that If we want fewer deaths from COVID-19, what do we have to assessment, but we have to make decisions based on the best give up?. It’s not just jobs and economic growth we must give information we have available. To give this point its due, note that up. Reducing COVID-19 deaths may increase deaths from other early assessments of COVID-19 have turned out to be wrong. causes. Following the science requires understanding all the other For example, Science News reports that China’s first assessment health impacts of policy actions. showed limited ability of the virus to be transmitted from one person to another. Then scientists acknowledged person-to-person Some cancer screening saves lives, though the screening conflicts transmission, but believed that most of the spread was from people with social distancing practices. This is not a case of which who were symptomatic. They later came to understand that the science to believe, but a need to fully integrate all of the scientific disease was being passed along by asymptomatic infections. evidence about a myriad of issues. Scientific knowledge may lack the precision to know if the COVID-19 risks of a mammogram Early-stage scientific knowledge must be taken as provisional, but outweigh the cancer detection benefits of the procedure. Following still it’s the best information we have at the time. It would be nice to the science is complicated. postpone decisions until years of study have been completed, but that does not work when people are dying in the present. In fact, Psychology research from before the pandemic found that more this problem illustrates an issue familiar to economists: knowledge isolated people have a higher risk of death relative to more socially is a scarce good, which is often developed over time and after connected people. That risk of death comes from many other substantial commitment of resources. So we must decide whether diseases, which presumably interact with psychological health. to act today based on knowledge that is incomplete and possibly How do we take the health benefits of social connection into inaccurate, or suffer along until we have invested in developing account? Ideally we’d compute risks of COVID-19 transmission much greater knowledge. as well as risks associated with social isolation. And ideally we’d run the calculations for different groups. The elderly may have Using current scientific knowledge makes sense, but it must different risks than the young or middle-aged. Going to that level be done with humility. Scientific knowledge evolves over time. of granularity may require us to rely on just one or two scientific Analysis of what the science says must reflect tradeoffs among studies specific to the group, rather than the more numerous different causes of mortality, as well as quality of life preferences studies of the general population. Targeted research often has as demonstrated by behavioral choices that people make. fewer subjects in the study, reducing our confidence in the results. But most of the science shows markedly different risks for different Yes, follow the science. But no, that’s not simple. Fall 2020 • Big I Oregon 29

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