HDBMarketPulse1Q16

REAL ESTATE DATATREND HDB Market Pulse Keener Sense of Real Estate Bringing you the latest trend in the heartlands 6 May 2016 RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY At a glance Celine Chan  Placebo Effect of stabilising market Research Analyst  Effect of latest policy review  Rents for 4-Room and 5-Room may come under | Singapore | Residential | pressure  4,070 flats offered in next HDB sales launch E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.orangetee.com Placebo Effect of stabilising market A plateauing HDB resale index seems to have a positive or Follow us on perhaps placebo effect on individual buyers and sellers evidenced by higher resale volumes when compared against all the first quarters of 2013, 2014 and 2015. Stabilising resale index also suggest that expectations of buyers and sellers found a new equilibrium. Effect of latest policy review th HDB announced on the 4 of May that transfer of flat ownership between Housing Board flat owners can only be done under special circumstances. This refinement is seen to affect home buyers who perform such transfers in order to avoid paying additional buyer stamp duty (ABSD). The method commonly used to avoid paying ABSD is known as decoupling; this involves one spouse legally giving up his or her co-owner status to become an authorised occupier. Rents for 4-Room and 5-Room may come under pressure The oversupply situation in the private residential market, especially in the Outside of Central Region (OCR), has resulted in a tenants’ market. With the increased Expected BTO Launches completions in the OCR, owners of private residential properties who face difficulties because of nagging vacancy cost will succumb to lowering asking rents. Demand for 4- room and 5-room flats may come under pressure as tenants may prefer to choose private condominium units at a comparable cost. BTO Launch in May 2016 The BTO launch in 2016 will be held in May. There will be an estimated total of 4,070 flats, spread across 5 towns, 2 non-mature towns/estates and 3 mature towns/estates namely Bukit Panjang, Sembawang, Ang Mo Kio, Bedok and Bukit Merah. Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research See terms of use on last page. Page 1 | 4

Exhibit 1: HDB Resale Price Index Minor adjustments The HDB Resale Price Index registered a -0.1% q-o-q and a -0.7% y-o-y drop. The index is generally | Singapore | Residential | plateauing hence suggesting a stabilising market. Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research Exhibit 2: HDB Resale volume by room type Strongest first quarter since 2013 HDB resale volume for 1Q16 saw a - 10.9% q-o-q increase from 4,992 units in 4Q15 to 4,449 units in 1Q16. It is customary for the first quarter of the year to register a lower sale volume due to the traditionally quiet Chinese New Year period. Having said that, 1Q16 is one of the highest sale volumes when compared against the first quarter of 2013 (4,335), 2014 (3,781) and 2015 (4,135). Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research Exhibit 3: HDB Rental volume by room type Record highest rental volume 1Q16 records the highest quarterly rental volume in history. HDB rental volume saw a 5.8% jump from 10,618 in 4Q15 to 11,239 in 1Q16. 4-room flat category had the highest increase, 4.6% higher than that in 4Q15. Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research See terms of use on last page. Page 2 | 4

Exhibit 4: Top and Bottom 5 performers 1Q16 (Based on Resale Transactions) | Singapore | Residential | Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research Exhibit 5: HDB Towns median resale price by room type Date 1Q16 3-Room 4-Room 5-Room Median QoQ Median QoQ Median QoQ Resale Absolute Resale Absolute Resale Absolute Region Town Price Change Price Change Price Change Central Bishan * $0 $545,000 $10,000 $739,000 $9,000 Central Bukit Merah $350,000 -$35,000 $605,000 -$35,000 $750,000 $22,000 Central Bukit Timah - $0 * $0 * $0 Central Central $445,000 $20,000 * $0 * $0 Central Geylang $275,000 -$13,000 $457,500 -$42,500 * $0 Central Kallang/Whampoa $342,000 $14,000 $572,500 $26,500 * $0 Central Marine Parade * $0 * $0 * $0 Central Queenstown $358,000 -$9,500 $680,000 -$19,000 * $0 Central Toa Payoh $303,000 $0 $510,000 -$20,000 * $0 North Sembawang - $0 $366,000 $6,000 $416,500 -$3,500 North Woodlands $276,500 $3,500 $360,000 -$5,000 $425,000 -$4,900 North Yishun $289,000 -$1,000 $360,000 $6,000 $460,000 $10,000 North-East Ang Mo Kio $318,000 $0 $465,000 $1,000 $680,000 $32,000 North-East Hougang $298,000 -$2,000 $383,900 -$14,100 $500,000 $10,000 North-East Punggol * $0 $435,000 $15,000 $450,000 $3,100 North-East Sengkang * $0 $410,000 $7,100 $455,000 $0 North-East Serangoon * $0 $467,000 $39,000 * $0 East Bedok $300,000 $0 $400,000 -$15,000 $573,000 -$14,500 East Pasir Ris - $0 $402,000 $5,000 $475,000 $7,000 East Tampines $323,000 $3,000 $423,400 $3,400 $526,500 $6,800 West Bukit Batok $288,000 $8,000 $400,000 -$2,000 * $0 West Bukit Panjang $285,000 $0 $356,600 $6,600 $455,000 $5,600 West Choa Chu Kang * $0 $352,000 -$1,000 $416,500 $0 West Clementi $330,000 $10,000 $514,000 -$21,000 * $0 West Jurong East $300,000 -$3,000 $405,000 -$11,000 $607,000 $0 West Jurong West $285,000 -$2,500 $384,000 $4,000 $480,000 $22,000 Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research ( * ) refer to cases where there are less than 15 resale transactions recorded ( - ) refer to cases where there are no resale transactions See terms of use on last page. Page 3 | 4

Exhibit 6: HDB Towns median rents by room type | Singapore | Residential | Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research ( * ) refer to cases where there are less than 15 rental transactions recorded ( - ) refer to cases where there are no rental transactions Exhibit 7: HDB Towns estimated rental yields by room type Source: HDB, OrangeTee Research Page 4 | 4 Terms of Use: The reproduction or distribution of this publication without the express consent of the author is prohibited. This publication is provided for general information only and should not be treated as an invitation or recommendation to buy or sell any specific property or as sales material. Users of this report should consider this publication as one of the many factors in making their investment decision and should seek specific investment advice. OrangeTee.com Pte Ltd and the authors of this publication shall not accept and hereby disclaim all responsibilities and liability to all persons and entities for consequences arising out of any use of this publication.