GR1 บทสัมภาษณ์ ดร. มณทิพย์ ศรีรัตนา ทาบูกานอน อธิบดีกรมส่งเสริมคุณภาพสิ่งแวดล้อม ผู้บุกเบิกศูนย์วิจัยและฝึกอบรมด้านสิ่งแวดล้อม

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'i'l-.l'i'llilL'il~unm~'fl'W LL~:::'flruV111i1mmPl LLuni'fl~~L~l-JLU'Wfl1 eigenvalue LL~::: L1il1--+ (1) \"f 1 I \"I \\J , , ,li0 l1'i'llil-L'il~m1mliell'l fl'W \"nnml-J'fllil'W- U:W....'lVlm e,,igenvector 'i'l lil1flrWlilP11'i'llilf LL~::: Z1(1, 1) Z,( l,624) , ,~01'W'l'W 24 'i'lm'W- d'l' l'lfl~'flUfl~l-.J..'.V. l'lVlnrnfl ~ z= t 11mi1 i\"'Wlil'i'l'Wm11Lfln:::>I PCA M,i.JLMU'fl .r,,~ 'll'fl..ii.Jr:::LVlPl1Vlu L'W1:::wi1.:iil 2494-2545 1 Z,.( 24,l ) Z,.( 24,624 ) lillil'l'W mr~n~'W'i'l'.WrL~L'il'l'i1:::n1'i'LlIBU''WLLi.J~.:i m1Lfln:::,;1w:ii .:i~n L~ '11Pim~1mr L'W~'i'W'll'fl'l-1' 'fll;j ~'e{ NVl~i'.l '1l1n1Pl L~U'WLLi.J~.:i'll'fl'l'!lruV111i1mmPl*.:iL'Wr:::u::: z(t,x) Yivhmrliln~1'1il ru L'l~1 t= 1... Yi' l-J1n n~ 1V1~ .:iil i;\\.:iJ'Wfl'lrn°1r.i'1i1 mr \"' , \\J\"' ' Li.J~U'WLL1.J~-.llil1l-J']~n1~~'i'l'W~~:::~Lfl'i'1:::,; iwL~:::r:::u:::mrinl-J-.1..imn~'i'll-JLmnu 624 ( 52 tJ Xl 2 L~ 'il'W) LL~::: ru 'i'l mil 'i'lmvmi1mmPl'll'i'l'1L~n LVlflUY!vhil'Wm'i' x=l...24 'i'l1mrnL~U'WL'W1l.JLl-Jlil1ni'll'W11il PCA LlilUf1°1'W'lru~1L'iliu1'Wr:::u:::u1ri ~ 624 'i'llill-J'JlLL~::: 24 LL'1'l .J''U \"' ..... t\\i•'Wm'N...'W.r..f.l'fl 52 u~ ) ,~ ~Lfl'i'1:::~-D''fll-l~ ~'fl Principal Component 11illil'l'W 'll'fl'l'flNVIJll-J'fl1n1Pl ~' ~ Analysis (PCA) ~'1LU'WLVlf1Uf1Vl1'1'i'ln~L~'I ,iilriLLi.JrnVI ( Multivariate Statistical ' Technique) Yiilul-l1-ii'l'Wmr1Lfln:::,; mni..J.,J~U'WLLi.J~.:i L-'l!'l'l'.i.'Wr V.,.l: LL~::: L-'ll'I L'l~1'll'fl'I 1Ji1'1l1mPl ~~UUl-J~VlU1LL~:::'i'l~VlrP11'i'llilf L'Wr:::r;1u11i1rnf1LL~:::1:::r;1u1~n ' V1~nm1 .,,,.OJ .J'.c:Y r n iJ ~\" .... '1 \" 'fl'I 'll 'fl-.l LVl fl'Wfl'Wfl 'fl m L'll L'i'l'WlilN'll if'fll;j ~ L~ l-J~ ij 'll'W1 Ii\\LVlaj LL~:::i'.i iil'l LL i.J1 \"1°1'W'l'Wmn 1i.J~1 lil'll'W1 lilLiin'll'fl'I iilri LLi.Jr LLl'i\\L.u\"'W!~lil'l LLVl'Wfl'l1l-J LL.uI'.i'uIn'WL~'ll'.l'lJ'i''W.VJl LL~::: L~'IL'l~1~'l'WLVlaj'll'fl'li'fl~~L~l-J Lliluvi'rili.J 1fimr1Lfln:::t.f PCA ~:::ri'1'Wriru~1n Ll-llil1nifl'l1l-JLLi.Jri.Jn'Wr'll-J (Covariance Matrix) V1r'flLl-llil1n-nflri1l-Jil-l~'Wfiiril-l (Correlation Matrix) 'll'!l'lii'!l~~ LyJ'fl

b'WLLlii'i'l:;L~'il'W (Climatological monthly LL'i'l:;~fi1mnn~1P1UtJV11'1lfi1 Eigenvalue Vl'1'1l Time Coefficient (A(t )) 'll'il..:ILL~ mean) bb~'lu11'\\1'1lruV1!li'.1mwH•H~:w1u 1u'Y1nvi'1 Lb V11.l..:i'll''1l..:JL~U'Vl LLm:w:w ~'il '1'l:;1:wl'1 l'i'1u'lruL~\"l1ni:-J'i'lJ''l:W'Y1n'i'ln1u L~'il'WLU'i'lunul''\\1 ' '' ' Lb~'i'l:; i:-J'i'l~'V1fiV1' 'll'il'li'ild;j'i'l'f\\WVl~iJL~:W (z(t) ) 'il1tJ1 rii'-mch'l L~ ~'1lfl1ldtML1J'W'll'il..:1'1lrtrnlli'.1'1l1n1PI A. 1 (Projection ) uwL~'i'l:;L:wl?i 1umru1:wl'1 \"l1nfi1L'il~' tJ1m:;tJ:;tn'l' ' A= (s) A. 24 k=l...24 A(t ) l~tJ'Wb'WdU'i'l:Wn1J'L~ri1..:id (Anomaly) ' \"l1mfuu1i'1ll;J'i'lb:Wlil1ni z 1iJl'i'1u'lruV11 bl?itJUn~fi1 Eigenvalue \"l:;L~tJ..:J'i'l01rii'u kA(t) = E,z(t) (7) L:Wlil1n'llri'l1:WLLUJ'UJ\"l'W~'l:W (Covariance \"l1nmn1iJmu'1ltJ Vl1'1l A1>A2...>A24 Matrix, (24 x 24 R,,1)) 'll'il..:i~ruV1.1Jii'1l1mPI 11?1uw1L:wlil1n'll z 1urirunrn:wlil1ni zr Vl1'1l i1Vl~rn:wlil1n~ E buw:wlil1n'll\"llil~'i'l'll'W11'1 Li?itJVl x A'il'i'lmu (x=i...24) LL'i'l:; t A'il L:Wlil1n'll Z ~~mJ''i'l~U''i'll?i:WJlLUUbbmLL'i'l:; '24 L'l'i'l1 ( t= 1... 624 ) Time Coefficient x 24 <jb' l?itJ'Y\"\"\"1' 'i'll?i:Wl~l E1, E,. .. E P-dil'il 2 , ( A (t )) 'll'il..:iLL~'i'l:;1:w1?1:i1f1ru'i'l:wu,,~L~u Llbl'lLU'W'i'll?i:wJl (Transpose Matrix) Eigenvector '>11'tl Principal Component Loading (PCL) 'll'il..:i Rzz' zj..:ililJ'..:irl1Jrl1 L~tJ'lnu PCL A'1lLlJu;;jiqJ':;V1'1'1liil..:i'il1n (Z,Z1) (Z,Z,) . . (Z,Z,,) A.1,A.2... J..24 ii11:w'Ci'1rii'u ~'1lnu1rn:n..:iL'l'i'l1 fi1'll'il..:J Eigenvalue Ru' = (2) LL~'i'l:; fi1\"l:; Liluil?i~'lunu bu'ilfb~u~'l!'il..:i (Z,,Z,) (Z,;z.,) ... (z,;z.,,) i1 L~ :w~ri'd1:w\"un 1 E(1,1) E(2,1) E(24,1) LL u J u u.Ji 'il:W 'iI'l'i,l r u t r n E = E(l,24) E(2,24) E(24,24) \\I 'ii 11\"illJ'l ( ZZ;) = ( Zz;) = 6241 _ 1 ~~ Z;(t)Z;(t) ; 1.,.J= l...24 (3) (6) '1lfiu1tJL~\"l1rnb~'i'l:;1:wl'1 ~..:il'i'1u'druL~\"l1n ~'Wlil'1l'Wlii'1lLUA'1lmrnnub)dVl1 Eigenpro- (B) blem bl?it.JbbtJnL:Wlil~n'll RzzT'il'ilmliu Model Mode2 Mode2A L:Wlil1n'll E bL'i'l:; A 1uulii'i'l:;b:Wl?i (Mode) Vl~'il PCL :i1 1?1..:\"iuu % P1'l1:wLLUJ'UJ''lU'll'il'lb:wl?i k 1:-J'i'lJ\"l:W~.\".:J'l-1:Wl?i'll'1l..:Jfi1 Eigenvalue \"l:; ri ru'i'l:wu~~ Li'.Ju;;jM:;V1'1'1l ~..:!'inn~ 'ilrl'W Lvi1nu 1:-J'i'ln:w~..:1V1:w1?1'l1'1l..:iri'l1:w bLuJ'unu , '-' I I 1ui'1l:W'i'l'ilruV1ni'.1 L~:w R,,1•E = E• A (4) ( Orthogonality) 1uL:n..:iYluV1 bU'il..:J\"l1n '' ' E*ET = Er.E = ' I ~'1ll:Wlil1n'JlV'1~ I bl?itJVl 'Y1nfi1Lllu i ~..:idmnu~tJULLU'i'l..:iL:n..:ib'l'i'l1 '

~'i'ln11Am~nLL'i'l~\\J'V11r.t11ci gu(]) 100 <> Monthly mean air temperature <> Monthly maximum air temperature ~'i'lm71Lrin::ilriu11 h1r;i~ i 'il'il.:J <> Monthly minimum air temperature Principal Component (PC1) 'il'il.:J \"la 80 'flnJ~Jli'.i'il1n1PIL'U~tJnm~'ilU 'fln.!~Jli:i :> . .. -tl1n1i'\\'jq.:J'jq(;)L'U'i'lm1m(;)'ilU LL'i'l::'ilru~lll.J <€>l , \\I , \\I ~...... 60 ..0.... . .. ..\\II, , \\I \"0\"\" ,'il1n1 f'!(i)1'jq r;iL'U'i'l unmr;i 'ilU 'jq1l.J'lH1 40(]) Crol) 'flffU1tJfl11l.JUU7U71U'il'tl.:Jf'fll.J'i'IL;l.Ja.:i \"\\:: ~ 20 u(..]..). f'iltJ'i'l:: 60.5, 62.2 LL'i'l:: 67.4 (i)1l.J'li°1Cilu 0pI..I.). i1~fo 23 Ll.J(;)~L~;'il 'jq1l.J1Hl'tlff1.J1tJ 0 5 10 15 20 25 Mode number ri:1l.JLLu7U nu'll'il.:Ji'tl~ 'ii,'; lJ1rilW'tl um n Li'.J'tlLmtJULYltJl.Jrll.Jll.J(;)Yl 1 LL'i'l::f'fltJ'i'l:: z1HI u~\"'~1 Scree plot tor percentage at total variance and mode number of principal component 'll'il.:Jfl11l.J LLU7unu7::~11.:iLl.Jr;ii'.J rh1n~ Lf1tJ.:JrlU (iu~ 1) r.nn~'i'l~.:irnh1 LL'jq(;).:J11 ri11l.Jil.J~ufi7:;~~1.:iiii'1LLU7'il'tl<!Y,ln'jqn1il i'.1~1~.:i LL'i'l::ri11l.JLLU7unu1r;iu~1u1~aj 'il'fl.:Ji'tll.J'i'IL;l.J'jq1l.J1rn'ilfimu1rifr.i1n PC1 ~1Ufl11~l.JUU7UJ1UYlL~' ;'tl~1U~'tltJYl' nmLtJnlil1l.J-Kr;i~1u1u~n 23 Ll.Jr;i mr.ir.i:; ~ Lnr;ir.i1n \"noise\" ~1'tlri11l.JLLurunuu~n .U'iltJLui'fll.J'i'IL;l.J ~'i'lmrri'1u1ru PCL ' 2) unn{]11-Kl.Jur::~Ylff''jq~-Kl.J~ufi ( ruY1 ~y (Correlation Coefficient) 'il'tl<!Yl.:J'jq1l.J lll1LLU7rl1.J PC1 nr11~'jq•.:JLL'i'l::Ln~Lf1u.:inu Ln'tlu\"1n'jqmil ~m~mYlu.:i 4 'jqmWlu 0 ll1flL~lil'tlU~1.:iY1i'.J~1~'flui1-1~h r.i1n~'i'l Cil.:i n'l'l 11'jq~u1iii 11 fl11l.J LLU7U71UL::n .:i 1600000 :u~~'flfimu1rilr.i1n PC1 hi1ii1Lnr;ir.i1n m1l.JLLurunu'll'fl.:Ji'fll.J'i'l'1lruw1i:immf'! '\\JI , \\I L'UYi1::'jqmil'lr;i'jqmil~\\l.:i~1'tlmri1r;imri ~d.:iLvhJu LL~Lnr;ir.i1nfl11l.JLLUJUnu U'ii 'fl.:Ji'il:I.I 'ii 'Cl ru~flij '1l1 n1 f3\\ Ln 'tll.J Yl n'jq m -,i , \"' \\I , 1200000 • Mant1d.ymu:i:m.wn. ilitnn.1n :ntur:1: i1l.Jnu r;i'.:iumYlu.:i PC1 'jq1mniH' e Man.thtymun W 1r:m11rnt\\Sr • Munthtyminimum &it trmgu1tuir LUUlll1LLYlU~ L~l.J1:;'jq)J L~'tl'tlff1.J1tJn17 LU~ tJULLU'i'l.:JL1.:i:u~ LL'i'l:: L1.:i L1'i'l1'il'fl.:I ',flru~11~i'.i'tl1n1f3\\Lu u 7 : ; LYlf'!LYltJL(;)tJ'~1UL~aj ' LL'i'l::ll1Yinl.JLiii n17LU~tJULLU'i'l.:JLUL1.:i L1'i'l1'il'tl.:J PC1 'tlff1.J1tJLrilr.i1n Time 800000 1200000 Coefficient (TC) ~.:iri'1u1rur.i1n'jql.Jn17 400000 ~ 7 LL'i'l::'1l1\"lLLU<lfl11l.JLLU7U71U'il'tl.:i TC y 'tl'tlnd'.lur:;u:;-Ku (tl~'tlti) LL'i'l::7::tJ::m1 ( mnn~1 s ll) 1iii (tu~ 3) jtl;f 2 \"~\"'~ Loadings on the first principal component (PC1 ) for each station. The loadings are correlation coefficients.

:::: (a) SOI n111re11mf'IV1' r:: ri'luii\"·w1:: L'i'lVl' Lm::m~~ 0 2.0 (b) Monthly maximum air temperature -~ (17° 33' 1tii, 149° 20' lil::foliln) ~'I -~ Lilu~'l LLVIU'll'eN r:: UUl'l'l1~n \"1'fl1 n1 f'\\Lu -0 0.0 ~vn~~Vlrntl:nYI n1tii LL'i'l::~ Li'.l'tl'11?11i1u ] (12° 26~ 1tii, 130° 52' lil::.ru'tl!ln) ~'ILUU -g -2.0 iil'l LLVlur::uu l'l'l1~ n111'tl1m f'\\ur L'lru ~ , - .... .... \".1....'l!.U....Ui.J' if] -4.0 ~vn~~VIHJUL\"1EJLL'i'l::?l'tl~LlilH'i'ltl 0.2 uu~1-ifLlluin.Jn.J1uu?Jnn'ltlnn!Jmrn1 0.0 L'tlu1\"1i 1111u~tl'1i;l'l!ili1~1'1'1u r.i::Ln111 tlnn!JmrruL'tl'i'lULu 1uV11-lniunutl'1 --0.2 i;\\'l!ul1r\\1u'ln r.i::Ln1111.Jr1n!Jmrru 0.2 (c) Monthly mean air temper<1.tw-e 'i'l1UU1 3 r.i1nmm.~tJULVltJU~U~1 TC 'll'tl '1'f\\ruii~ij'[]1n1 Pl L'il~ tJj1tJ L~ 'tlU 0.0 , . ,'tl ruiin ~- 'tl1n1f'l~ .:i~ \"1L'il'iq'l m1m11~1'tlu\\I ,, , 'll I LL'i'l:: 'tl ruiin- ~m m Pl li0l1~111 L'il'i..'.l. tJ n tJ Ld\"1'tlU --0.2 1utlr::LV1f'ILV1t1 i.Jr\\1mnn~1~utf (f!lu 0.2 (d) MonthJy minimum air temperature n~1tln~) 1ull~1n111tlnn!JmrruL'tl'i'lULu 0.0 L\"JiU U ~.Pl. 2512, 2516, 2526, 2530, 2534 LL'i'l:: 2541 1u'llru::~'t,lrui11~1iJ\"1-lmi1'l' --0.2 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 i.Jr\\1u'tlt1n~1~utl ( Liiun~1tln~) 1uilV1 Ln111tlr1n!Jmrru'1'l1u-J1 L'liu il ~.Pl. 2499, Year 2506, 2515, 2517 LL'i'l:: 251s crnmr zi!¢ J u~M Time series of SOI (a) and Time coefficient of the first principal component ·b,c,d,. The .. -1Lrir1::ifowi'mfofi (Correlation bar plots are 12- term running mean filter whereas the line plots are 60-term running mean fllter. .Analysis tJUt..J...UL~~~Llil~'l' 1 SOI ~....fl'l1~ i~~UflYl1'1~ Ci ~L UL:jj 'l'i'lU'tlU 1'1i1Uti 1ur::u::.ffu (illii'tlti) TC 'll'tl'I PCl 1ur::i1~1'1tl 2494-2545 iii'lr.i1nH 12- term running mean filter LliJ'tlri1~111 ri'l1~ LLtirtlnuViu'' tlt1n~1i1i!'l'lJ?J'tln i.J ~\"'lf11V1' mnLL'i'l::U'tlt1,m1~utlmJwn111Lr.iu :Ji 'I LL~ \"1'1~1n1H ti~ tJULLti'i'l'IU vi 'tllJ'll?l'I .... .... -c:!I ..... 'tlrui111~mmf'IL'il'i'lt1nm111'tlu 'tlrui111~ 'I 'll , 'lJ mmf'l~'l~\"1L'il~t1nmc.i'tlu LL'i'l::'tlruiiniJ ~, I , 'lJ mmf'li;i'1~1,11L'il~t1nt1 Lc.i'tluLutlr:: LVlf'ILViti i1\"1i'l'lrl'tlUoil1·:Jn'11.:i L\"1tl1J1'1Ui.J rl1~~'1 .iir'tlr;i~1n~1r\\1tln~ (rt!~ 3) u'tlnr.i1n•cl' ' inl!tru::mrnJ~tJULLLi'i'l'IUlii'tlU'll?l'I TC 'll'tl.:i~.:i~1~~'lLLtir t1'1i.Jri'l1~i~~uifnu i;\\'l!u mre:J'mLtir'!l'tl'lr::uu?J1 mf'ILuon n L'i'ln1tii (Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)) SOI Llluri'l'l!u'll'tl'lfl'l1~LLlilnlii1'l r::i1~1'1r\\1~~'liir'tl~1n~1r\\1tln~'ll'tl'lri'l1~ ~

I .. , I ,../ ~ -- ' .. , .~·1\"1'1.)nlJ TC 'll'il..:J'fl ruvin iJ'Cl1n1f'I .TC 'il'fl..:J'fl CUV!ll iJ 'fl1n1f'I~ 'I~ '1l L'U~' U (iu~ 3) zj..:ii.1~n\"Etru:::~Lvii1'flunuiuLLuu ' , \\I \\I ,, mnu~tJ'WLLU~..:J'il'fl..:J'flCUVllli1 L'U~U'il'fl..:JL~n L'U~m1m~!l'W (r= -0.47; p<.001; n = nuL~'fl'WLL~:::',Clruvini1mmP1i;\\'1~',1lL'U~tJ J\" 1 \\I I 612) !lruvini1mmf'l~..:iMlL'i'l~unm~'flu nm~'fl'W V1~..:ir.i1n1'D 60-term running 'W'flnr.i1nu TC 'il'fl..:J!lruvini1mmf'li;\\'1~'1l , \\I \\I , ~ mean filter L~'flrl1~'1lfl'l1~LLU1UT'l'W~ I I ,\\.' I, , . ,( r= -0.58; p<.001; n = 612 ) LL~::: L'il~ unu L~'fl'WLYi ~~'W'fltJ 1..:ii;\\ 'fl LU'fl..:JLu ' '~ 0 ..., ~ 'fl ruvin ~ 'fl1n1 f'lli11~ '1l L'il~ unm'1l 'fl'W U'flun~1 4 U'fl'fln if..:iLL~'1l..:imn~uuLLu~..:i o1i'n'l:tru:::L:.D..:JL~'Wli11..:Jii..:iLLi;\\tl ~.f'I. 2500 (r= -0.40; p<.001; n=612) r.nnvi~nj1'W 1u1:::u:::mri~i'\"1L\"'l'W n'Gi1rii'i'fl TC 'll'fl..:J ,~ .,: J' .. ' LL~:::'Clli111n1H~~'il'W1'WLLNVl1'fl~1nn'l1 i1..:i~u 'fl1\"'l~'WU'l:tj1'WLiiih:rnm:::V1u ~..:J~'Cl..:J~'lLLUHl!l'WU ~.Pl. 2525 L'1ltJ~'lLU ~ ... di 'fl CUV!ll ~ 'fl1n1 f'I~ 'I~ '1\\L'il~ tJ11tJL'1l 'fl'W 1 I 'lJ \\I , .'ll'fl..:iurin!JmrnlL'flu1~~'flmm.muuLLu~..:i J' ..ii' I ...,,: I ,lli;\\'flU'il'fl..:J'Clruvini1mmf'l1uuj'::: LVI f'IL VltJ ..., I 'V I II .( iuV1 3) r.i1no1i'n'l:tru:::mnu~um~uM il1r.i:::mr.i1n~1LV1lil'i,l'fl..:Jn1j'LL~'ilmun1'' 1..:i ~f11'W'fltJ~'l1~'WtJ LLl'lL~~'il'W'CltJ1..:Jl'l'ClL'W'fl..:J , ,ril..:in'i'i1ri r.i:::vh11X'flruvini1'fl1mf'lli1°1~'1l 1n~'fl'fl n1U'll'fl.:iu~mruriri1~f'fluV1 Ln '1l LL~:::i.1rhl1~1nn~1f'l'•WU~..:JLLiilU ~.Pl . 2525 r.i1nriri1~~'1lun~'ll'fl..:J'flruvini1~ritl1V1:::L~ ' , \"'\\I LL~::: mnri~'fl'W~'l'il'fl..:J LL~..:ii11~u1uu1Lriru L~ uP1• u J.J~'. mm..:i~vi1~~ Vlrnu:nYrn , u!lnr.i1nu riri1~eJ'WLLUT'll'fl..:Jj':::1Jummf'I L'1ltJL'ilYn:::'flth..:i~..:imm~uL1uu'll'fl..:immf'I ~LL1J1J'l!lf1Ln'flf (Walker, Circulation) Ln'1l\"'l1nn1j'L~tJ~~'1l~,'il'fl..:Jn1j'LL~nLU~tJ'W riri1~ f 'fl ur:::vi~ 1..:iunm m f'I LL~::: VI::: L~ . .il1r.i::: Luutrr.i~m~1~1umri11~1riri1~f'flu 'fl'flnr.i1nurLriruL~uP1utfal'l1'll'fl..:i~vi1~,~V11 LLu:.DYln~1~•u1::: LVI f'ILVltJ

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