1000 Islands Workforce Development Report English

LocalLabourMarketLLMPPlanningReportOctober 22001145

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board would like to thank our community partners for their continued support and valuable contributions in developing this planning document. Together we will continue to make strides in building a skilled, effective and adaptable workforce.The Board would also like to acknowledge the efforts of Sandra Wright, Labour Market Analyst, who was hired to prepare this Local Labour Market Planning Report. For further information pertaining to this document, please contact: Frank O’Hearn, Executive Director 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board 23 Mill Street, Gananoque, Ontario K7G 2L5 Telephone: 613-382-7462 Fax: 613-382-1172 Email: [email protected] This Employment Ontario project is funded by the Ontario government. Ce projet Emploi Ontario est financé par le gouvernement de l’Ontario. The views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Ontario. Les points de vue exprimés dans le présent document ne reflètent pas nécessairement ceux d’Emploi Ontario.

TABLE OF CONTENTS1.0 EXECUTIVE 12.0 ABOUT THE BOARD 33.0 LOCAL LABOUR MARKET PLANNING (LLMP) REPORT 4 3.1 THE LOCAL LABOUR MARKET PLANNING (LLMP) REPORT 4 3.2 PLANNING PROCESS OVERVIEW 44.0 KEY TRENDS & CHALLENGES 5 4.1 KEY TRENDS 5 4.2 POTENTIAL CHALLENGES 85.0 LOCAL LABOUR MARKET STATUS AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES 14 5.1 KEY SOURCES OF INFORMATION 14 5.2 DATA LIMITATIONS 14 5.3 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 16 5.4 POPULATION 24 5.5 MIGRATION 30 5.6 MOBILITY 31 5.7 LABOUR FORCE DYNAMICS 31 5.8 JOBS 35 5.9 EMPLOYERS 36 5.10 EDUCATION 38 5.11 INCOME 406.0 EMPLOYMENT ONTARIO DATA 417.0 COMMUNITY CONSULTATIONS 57 7.1 ON-LINE SURVEY – COMMUNITY PARTNERS – “LABOUR MARKET CHALLENGES\" 57 7.2 TELEPHONE SURVEY – EMPLOYERS – “PERCEPTION OF LABOUR SHORTAGES” 598.0 ACTION PLAN 619.0 GLOSSARY 73



1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 This Local Labour Market Planning (LLMP) Report is an update to the LLMP report produced 2 in October 2014. Although it is an update, it is a very comprehensive document on the local 3 labour market in the 1000 Islands Region. The report contains a lot of data and analysis. It 4 outlines labour market trends and potential challenges in workforce development. It also provides 5 an action plan that outlines activities and projects that community partners are undertaking to 6 address some of the labour market challenges. 7 The key to developing this report is labour market planning. This planning involves the 8 compilation and review of labour market data and local intelligence. It is a partnership with community stakeholders who are committed to developing a workforce that has the skills and 1 experience required by employers. The ideal scenario would be to have a balance of labour supply to meet labour demands in a timely manner. That is always the ultimate goal. And while that goal is very ambitious and may never be fully attainable it is always the focus. This region has exceptional educational and training facilities and dedicated employment service providers available to assist the workforce with their educational and employment needs. Economic development organizations continue to develop initiatives and deliver programs to support employer development, attraction and retention in the area – all backed by local, provincial and federal governments. Labour Shortages – Myth or Reality? The 1000 Islands Region, like many other areas across Ontario and Canada, is experiencing demographic changes that could result in potential labour shortages. The key factor continues to be the ageing workforce. As data suggests, the population in the 1000 Islands Region is ageing and at a faster rate than Ontario. Population ageing reflects the success of societies in securing higher living standards, which in turn results in increased longevity. However, the continued growth of the older populations also poses serious challenges for policy makers, particularly in relation to economic growth. Increased expenditure on health care for elderly people, and in particular a critical labour shortage as larger cohorts of workers retire at the same time, are some of the negative implications of an ageing population. Population growth in certain cohorts will determine the impact of labour shortages in the area. But this presents another concern in this area. Population growth factors are determined by natural growth (births less deaths) and net migration (international, interprovincial and intraprovincial). With declining birth rates not at replacement levels, population growth from natural factors is extremely low. This area obtained most of its growth from net provincial migration. It is also projected that over the next 15-20 years, as the population is continually ageing, there will be a significant decline in the proportion of our population in the prime working years (25-64). This will have a major impact in filling employment opportunities resulting in possible LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

labour shortages. While there is a real concern about projected labour shortages, it is extremely difficult to obtain local information on which occupations will be in critical need. There is not a consistent, reliable method for collecting and sharing this information. Most of it is anecdotal. However, as previously mentioned a critical labour shortage is looming due to large cohorts of workers retiring in the coming years. Most occupations will be affected by this shortage, but of significant importance, are the occupations requiring the most skill, training and education as it will take more time to develop these workers. Currently, many community partners and employers do not believe this region is experiencing a labour shortage. The 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development recently conducted a survey with stakeholders asking specific questions about a potential shortage of labour. Most respondents believe that there may be pockets of labour shortages in skilled trades, but as a result of a mismatch of skilled or untrained labour and not from an actual shortage of labour supply. They feel that there is an ample supply of labour looking for work and a vast array of untapped labour from the marginalized workforce and those not participating in the workforce. Employers were concerned about obtaining employees that were motivated to work and who had good work ethics. Many employers responded that they had a significant number of applicants applying for job openings. At the present time there appears to be more of a focus on job creation and job retention -- to provide more jobs for those who are unemployed. But this is not to negate a possible real threat of labour shortages in the future.12345678 2 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

2 ABOUT THE BOARD 1 The 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board (1000 Islands Region WDB) 2 is one of twenty-six (26) workforce planning boards across Ontario. Its mission is to work collaboratively with community partners to address the region’s key labour force needs. 3 The 1000 Islands Region WDB was first incorporated in 1996 and has been in operation for 4 over 19 years and has spearheaded over 125 projects and partnerships in the community relating 5 to workforce development. The volunteer Board of Directors includes representatives from 6 Labour, Business, Educators, Trainers and Equity Groups. 7 The 1000 Islands Region consists of the counties of Frontenac, Leeds and Grenville and the 8 Township of Loyalist (within the county of Lennox and Addington). The Local Board Objectives are to: 3 • Provide the community with high quality local labour market information for planning by collecting, analyzing and disseminating reliable local labour market information to local stakeholders and employers. The Local Board is to gather intelligence and identify priority issues through consultation with community stakeholders. This process will lead to a local labour market report that identifies key issues and proposes consensus-based strategies to address them. As of 2013, this report was to be available to the community in October. • Foster, develop and generate new partnerships to execute projects that address labour market issues such as local skills misalignment, workforce development challenges and gaps in service. Partners will include but are not limited to providers of employment, training, human,socialandotherrelatedprogramsandservices. TheBoardwillestablishrelationships with various levels of government (for example, municipalities, other Ontario ministries, and federal agencies), post-secondary institutions, employers, business associations, industry and unions and labour organizations. There is to be a focus on promoting available labour market programs and services with stakeholders, particularly employers. • Facilitate service coordination and planning by collecting and interpreting local labour market and Employment Ontario program information to assist decision making and planning, link employers, service providers, other ministries/levels of government and broader support agencies to promote a comprehensive and seamless system of client services and identify service delivery gaps, overlaps, duplications and potential areas for further collaboration and coordination across employment, training and other related programs and services. Each year, local boards undertake a comprehensive local labour market planning (LLMP) process. This process engages communities in a locally-driven and evidence-informed process to identify and respond to the key local labour market challenges (and opportunities) in their local labour markets. LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

3 THE LOCAL LABOUR MARKET PLANNING (LLMP) REPORT 3.1 THE LLMP REPORT The LLMP Report is a result of a process involving local labour market partners, giving them a voice in setting local priorities in their communities. Workforce Planning Boards of Ontario support a community development process that identifies, assesses and prioritizes the skills and knowledge needs of the community, employers and individual participants and learners in the local labour market. The results of this process are then translated into a Local Labour Market Plan (LLMP) The October 2014 Local Board LLMP was a comprehensive report that incorporated National Household Survey (NHS) data relevant to the local labour market and economic conditions. This report of December 2015 is an update of last year’s report which includes changes in labour market information, results of community consultations and updates to the community plan of action. The report leads the reader through discussions of labour market activities and challenges affecting the 1000 Islands Region. 3.2 THE PLANNING PROCESS OVERVIEW The specific timelines and activities of the Local Labour Market Planning Process (LLMP) are detailed below. Specific Timelines and Activities of the Local Planning Process Review of Labour Market A review and analysis of local labour market information and data was conducted Information May – September 20151 Key Challenges Survey On-line survey conducted with community stakeholders. This survey was to June – August 2015 provide comments on key challenges that were identified as a result of labour2 market data analysis. There were 58 respondents to this survey.3 Employer Survey A telephone survey was conducted with employers. This survey was to obtain July - August 2015 employers’ comments pertaining to the perception of labour market shortages and the difficulties in finding suitable labour. 46 employers responded to this4 survey.5 Employment Ontario Data – A survey was developed and disseminated to key stakeholders to validate and6 Analysis prioritize local trends and issues as outlined in the Discussion Paper.7 Aug – Sept 2015 Draft of LLMP Report. LLMP Report8 October 2015 LLMP Report Final LLMP Report completed and disseminated. December 20154 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

4 KEY TRENDS & CHALLENGES 1 2 4.1 KEY TRENDS 3 The following trends have been identified by analyzing local labour market data from the Census 4 2006, the Census 2011 and the National Household Survey 2011. There were limitations to the Canadian Business Counts (formally Patterns) for 2015 and therefore, no trends were 5 identified from this data. Where other data has been used it has been noted. Data Tables have 6 been published in a separate document and can be referenced to provide specific details to 7 these finding. The key trends have not changed from the previous year and are outlined below. 8 4.1.1 POPULATION TRENDS COMPARED TO ONTARIO 5 Low population growth • Virtually no population growth over the last 5 years in Leeds & Grenville • Low estimated natural population growth (negative growth in Leeds & Grenville – more deaths than births) - Population Estimates – Statistics Canada – July 2014 • Population growth mainly from migrants from Ontario Few migrants from other provinces and fewer from International migrants - Population Estimates – Statistics Canada – July 2014 Older population demographics compared to Ontario • Median age of the population has increased compared to 2006 figures with a slight increase in Frontenac County of 0.8% to 41.6 years and a substantial increase in the counties of Leeds and Grenville of 3.1% to 46.7 years. Ontario had an increase of 1.4% to 40.4 years. Distribution of population compared to Ontario • Lower distribution of workers in the key income earning ages of 25-49 • Lower distribution of youth in the ages 15 and under • 4% more females than male (More males than females under 15 years of age) • Comparable figures of males and females in the ages of 15 to 59 • Substantial number of older women over the age of 60 compared to men and about 68% more women over the age of 80 4.1.2 MIGRATION TRENDS Overall net in-migration of residents to the area • Largest net in-migration in Leeds & Grenville in the ages of 45-64 • Largest net in-migration in Frontenac in the age groups of 18-24 and 24-44 • Significant out-migration of youth (-1412) between the ages of 18-24 in Leeds & Grenville 4.1.3 MOBILITY TRENDS There was a slight or no movement in residency within the municipality reported 1 year ago and 5 years ago which indicates a stable population base. Few reported a change in residency from other parts of Canada or another country which may indicate that this area is not attractive to migrants outside of the municipality – may stifle population growth. LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

4.1.4 LABOUR FORCE TRENDS Jobs Changes - 2006 vs 2011 • Overall Increase in jobs in the 1000 Islands Area • Significant Increase in jobs in Frontenac County • Significant Decrease in jobs in Leeds & Grenville Counties and Loyalist Township Flow of Labour In the 1000 Islands Region, there is a net flow of labour who work outside of the region which indicates that there are more people who live in the area and work than there are jobs in the area. However, in Frontenac County, there is a net flow of labour to the county to work. This implies that this area needs to bring in people from outside the area to fill its jobs. But in Leeds & Grenville counties and Loyalist Township, there is a significant net flow of labour of those who work outside the area. This implies that there are a lot more people that reside in these areas than there are jobs. Unemployment: • Higher unemployment rates since 2006 but slightly lower than Ontario • Unemployment of females slightly higher than males in Frontenac County but significantly lower in Leeds & Grenville • Significantly higher unemployment rates of over 19% for youth under the age of 24 compared to the overall unemployment rates of 8.0% in Frontenac, 7.0% in Leeds & Grenville and 7.7% in the 1000 Islands Region. This is in contrast to the low unemployment rates of between 4.3% - 6.4% for those aged 25 and over Participation & Employment Rates: • Participation and employment rates lower than that of Ontario • Higher participation rates of men Labour Force:1 • Increase in the labour force in Frontenac of 4.9% from 75,205 – 78,860 • Decrease in the labour force in Leeds & Grenville of -0.6% from 51,520 to 511902 • Total labour force participants in occupational and industry categories exceed3 the number of jobs respectively - no major shortages identified4 4.1.5 EDUCATION TRENDS5 Levels of Education6 • Still a significant number of the working age population without a high school diploma (15.7% in Frontenac & 19.6% in Leeds & Grenville)7 • In Frontenac, 42.3% of the population over 15 have no post-secondary education8 compared to 49.0% in Leeds & Grenville • Substantial fewer females with apprenticeship or trades education (more than twice as many males) • Females significantly more college and university credentials6 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

• There are significant people not in the labour force with varying degrees of 1 educational attainment that need to be investigated further. 2 3 • Generally, persons with a post-secondary education have higher rates of employment. 44.1.6 INCOME TRENDS 5Income Levels 6 • Family Incomes 7 • Significant median and average family income disparities between Frontenac 8 and Leeds & Grenville with incomes being higher in Frontenac County. • These same income levels are greater in Frontenac County compared to 7 Ontario but are lower in Leeds & Grenville in comparison to Ontario. • Gender & Income • Less women work in full-time employment than men • Average and median income of women in full-time employment is substantially less than that of men • Education & Income • It was consistent in all areas that the higher the education levels achieved resulted in higher earnings in full-time employment4.1.7 INDUSTRY TRENDSNumber of Employers • Both Frontenac and Leeds & Grenville had an increase in the numbers of employers from June 2012 to June 2013 at increases of 8.8% and 1.8% respectively. Ontario had an 8.4% increase of employers during this same time period. • Significant increases in self-employment. • Substantial growth in the number of businesses in employee size ranges up to 499 employees in Frontenac. • Leeds & Grenville had increases in numbers of employers with no employees and with numbers of employers with an employee size range of 5-9. In all other categories they experienced no change or a loss.Significant Job Growth By Industry - 2006 vs 2011 • 1000 Islands Region • Educational Services • Public Administration • Professional, Scientific and Technical Services • Retail Trade • Finance and Insurance • Frontenac County • Educational Services • Public Administration • Professional, Scientific and Technical Services • Arts, Entertainment and Recreation • Health Care and Social Assistance LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

• Leeds & Grenville Counties • Public Administration • Retail Trade • Finance and Insurance • Wholesale Trade • Professional, Scientific and Technical Services • Loyalist Township • Retail Trade • Utilities Significant Job Losses By Industry - 2006 vs 2011 • 1000 Islands Region • Manufacturing • Other Services (except public administration) • Administrative and Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services • Arts, Entertainment and Recreation • Transportation and Warehousing • Frontenac County • Manufacturing • Other Services (except public administration) • Administrative and Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services • Arts, Entertainment and Recreation • Leeds & Grenville Counties • Manufacturing • Accommodation and Food Services • Administrative and Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services • Other Services (except public administration)12 • Loyalist Township • Public Administration43 • Other Services (except public administration) • Accommodation and Food Services5 • Health Care and Social Assistance'6 4.2 POTENTIAL CHALLENGES7 It is not sufficient to look at the facts and trends in labour market information. It is important to try and determine what the data may be suggesting and to follow-up with community partners8 to validate the findings. The challenges outlined below were validated and further defined by an on-line survey conducted with community stakeholders; a telephone survey with employers and supporting data from the Employment Ontario data.8 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

From the trends reported throughout this document, key concerns and potential challengeshave been identified. Challenges #1 to #5 were ranked in priority by responses from communitystakeholders. Other challenges were commonly mentioned by stakeholders but not prioritized.Challenge #1: Ensuring labour supply exists to meet employment demands of employersChallenge #2: Attracting and retaining youthChallenge #3: Retaining and attracting businesses – Creating new jobsChallenge #4: Increasing participation of those not in the labour forceChallenge #5: Increasing participation of women in apprenticeship and tradesChallenge #6: Ensuring the employment and other needs of older residents are addressed.Other Challenges Identified - (Commonly Identified But Not Ranked By Stakeholders) • Transportation in rural areas. • Low wages and high cost of living. • International Migration Complexity – government process, welcoming communities, credential recognitionChallenge 1:Ensuring labour supply exists to meet employment demands of employersThe following trends indicate that this area may experience labour shortages. 1 • Low population growth 2 • An aging population 3 • Low birth rates • Reliance on the growth of population from migrants 4 • Low in-migration of persons outside of Ontario and immigrants • Low distribution of workers in key income earning age of 35-49 5 6Q. Is there a Shortage of Labour? 13% of respondents agreed. 7 35% of respondents agreed. 8 Current shortage of labour 39% of respondents agreed. Current shortage of only skilled labour 24% of respondents agreed. 9 There will be a shortage of in the future Do not believe there will be a shortage of labourSummary of Responses:76% respondents agreed that there currently is or will be shortage of labour in this area. Only24% believed that there will be no shortage of labour. However, some of the comments indicatethat the shortages may be related to more of a mismatch of job openings to skills of the labourforce or due to unfavourable working conditions/wages of the position. And in fact it mayLLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

not be an overall shortage of people looking for work. Some indicated that we actually have a surplus of workers. The majority of employers surveyed agreed that they did not believe there was a shortage of labour in this area. Most of them responded that they usually had an ample number of people applying for job openings. Shortages that were reported were due to a lack of qualified and experienced applicants willing to work for the wages they could afford. The difficulty is trying to balance the supply and demand of labour in a timely fashion. It is very difficult to predict employers’ needs and then try to train and educate employees to meet these needs. This is especially an issue with occupations that required several years of education and training. Respondents also indicated that occupational shortages are more prevalent in the skilled trades and other skilled occupations. Key Actions To Address This Challenge (ranked) • Encourage and train those not currently in the labour market • Support current businesses and attract new business • Focus on initiatives to retain and attract youth • Promote the hiring of marginalized workers • Increase initiatives to attract new migrants Other Actions (not-ranked) • Obtain better information on the labour market – demand/supply • Train/Retrain people to meet specific labour demands – targeting the marginalized workforce, youth and immigrants • Remove/adjust government restrictions for immigrants – make process more streamlined • Increase government funding to assist employers and employees • Develop initiatives to attract and retain business12 Challenge #2:3 Attracting and retaining youth4 Data suggests that the number of youth in the area is dwindling due to the following trends:56 • Low birth rates • High unemployment rates7 • Out-migration of youth (net-out migration of youth in Leeds & Grenville)8 • Decreasing supply of youth in working age groups • Lower distribution of youth in the ages 15 and under10 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

Q. Based on these trends, what are your perspectives of attracting and retaining youth in this area?Need to attract and retain youth in the area. 79% of respondents agreed.This is a normal trend of youth in rural areas and there is no need for 21% of respondents agreed.concern.Summary of Responses:Approximately 80% of respondents agreed that the community needs to attract and retainyouth in the area. The community needs to ensure that the youth have the proper training andeducation to fill the jobs in the region.Key Actions To Address This Challenge (ranked) • Develop and apply long-term strategies to attract and retain youth • Focus more services on youth to help obtain employment • Explore why youth are leaving the areaOther Actions (not ranked) • Service providers to develop initiatives to ensure youth are better prepared for the expectations of employers pertaining to skills and work requirements in general (ie: work ethic ) • Promote job creation • Provide better education and labour market information for youth on employment opportunities in the area that have good career paths and good payChallenge #3:Retaining and attracting businesses – Creating new jobsThe following trends indicate the importance of retaining and attracting businesses to the 1000Islands Region.• High unemployment rates 1• Significant loss of employers (with employees) particularly in Leeds and Grenville 2• Losses in goods industries – particularly manufacturing 3• Labour force exceeds the number of jobs in occupational and industrial categories 4Key Actions To Address This Challenge (not ranked) • Continue to develop and promote hiring and other incentives to employers 5 • Market existing skills of workforce to attract new business 6 • Bring training to employers 7 • Work collectively to promote what we have to offer employers 8 • Celebrate successes of businesses • Create and support networks for employersLLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board 11

Challenge #4: Increasing participation of those not in the labour force. 35.8% people over the age of 15 are not participating in the labour force in Frontenac and 38.2% in Leeds & Grenville with varying levels of education. Although, this will not increase our population, it will increase our labour supply. Q. Based on this data, what are your perspectives on those not participating in the labour force? Need to undertake activities to increase the participation of this group 95% of respondents agreed. in the labour force. There is already a sufficient labour supply to fill the demand of labour so 5% of respondents agreed. no action is required. Summary of Responses: 95% of respondents agreed that the community needs to undertake activities to increase the participation of this group in the labour force. Key Actions To Address This Challenge (ranked) • Investigate why this group has chosen not to participate in the labour force • Develop a strategy to increase participation • Organize workshops/consultations with this group to encourage participation • Undertake a study/analysis to obtain a demographic breakdown of this group Other Actions (Not ranked) • None Challenge #5: Increasing participation of women in apprenticeship and trades1 There are over twice as many men than women who have graduated in the trades and this is an2 area where shortages are projected.43 Q. Based on this finding do you think that we need to increase the number of women in apprenticeship and trades?5 Yes 75%6 No 6% 19% No Opinion78 75% respondents agreed that we need to increase the number of women in apprenticeship and trades.12 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

Key Actions To Address This Challenge (not ranked) • Provide opportunities to try various trades including: mentoring, job-shadowing • Develop/establish pre-apprenticeship introduction programs specifically for women • Connect female students early in their high school or grades 7 and 8 with opportunities • Provide wage subsidies and incentives to employers and women • Career fairs • Public awareness campaignsChallenge 6:Ensuring the employment needs and other needs of the older resident are addressed.This area has older population demographics than Ontario. There has been an increase inmedian ages of population (41.6 in Frontenac and 46.7 in Leeds & Grenville). 22.6 % of thepopulation is over the age of 60 and about 60% of that figure being women.Key Actions To Address This Challenge (not ranked) • Offer training/education sessions to employers on how to effectively hire, train and retain older workers - including flexible hours, modified workstations etc. • Continue with the TIOW (Targeted Initiative for Older Workers) program • Investigate the needs of the older worker • Recognize the contributions of this cohort to the economic, social and cultural fabric of the broader communityLLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 13

5 LOCAL LABOUR MARKET STATUS AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES This section of the report attempts to provide an overview of the current labour market status and reports on significant changes based on statistical data and survey results with community stakeholders. The purpose of the data and information outlined in this document is to lay the groundwork for short and long-term planning and decision making by community partners in developing a skilled and adaptable workforce. Below are the components outlined in this section: 5.1 Key Sources of Information 5.2 Data Limitations 5.3 Economic Outlook 5.4 Population 5.5 Migration 5.6 Mobility 5.7 Labour Force Dynamics 5.8 Jobs 5.9 Employers 5.10 Education 5.11 Income 5.1 KEY SOURCES OF INFORMATION While other sources of information may have been used, the key sources used in this report include: • 2011 Census Data, Statistics Canada • 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada • Canadian Business Counts, Statistics Canada1 • Taxfiler, Statistics Canada2 • Economic Insights Into Canadian Metropolitan Economies, Winter 20153 Conference Board of Canada • Annual Demographic Estimates – 2014, Statistics Canada54 • Labour Challenges Survey, 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board • Employer Survey, 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board • Employment Ontario Data, Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities6 • Economic Development in Leeds & Grenville Report - April 201578 5.2 DATA LIMITATIONS It is important to recognize the availability and limitations of sources of labour market information. The Census and accompanying National Household Survey (NHS) are conducted every five years with the latest undertaken in May 2011. There is a wealth of information that is produced by Statistics Canada as a result of these surveys and some of it is discussed in this report.14 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

Census and NHS data was obtained from special tabulations purchased by the Ministry of 1Training, Colleges and Universities for the Workforce Planning Boards of Ontario. The data is 2housed on the server of OneHub and is manipulated using the Beyond 20/20 software. 3 4Limitations: 5 1. NOC 2006 vs NOC 2011 - There were significant changes made between these two National Occupational Classifications and it was impossible, even using the 6 Concordance Tables, to make a comparison of Census 2006 NOC data with 2011 7 NHS NOC data given the limited data to work with. Therefore, there were no 8 comparisons of NOC data from the 2006 with NOC data from the 2011 NHS. 2. Data at the 3 & 4 digit NOC and NAIC levels did not add up to the expected totals. Although, there will always be some errors in rounding data, there appeared to be more of a discrepancy than that. Therefore, for the purposes of analysis, 1 or 2 digit NOC and NAIC were used. 3. Special tabulations were provided at the Workforce Board areas and Census Divisions (County Level). There were no special tabulations for Census Sub- Divisions (ie: Townships). Therefore, data obtained for Loyalist Township was derived from using data from the 1000 Islands Region as a whole less the counties of Frontenac, and Leeds and Grenville. Only selective tables allowed for this data extraction and the data was only reliable at a 1 or 2 digit NOC or NAIC level.There are also, other sources of other information between Census years that can be used to tell usabout more recent changes. Common sources include the “Canadian Business Patterns” (nowreferred to as “Canadian Business Counts”) – information on businesses and employment;Labour Force Survey – monthly survey by Statistics Canada; Taxfiler Information; and studiesand reports produced at various levels.Canadian Business CountsStarting with the June 2015 reference period “Canadian Business Patterns” has changed itsname to “Canadian Business Counts.” (refer to the Glossary for more details on the CanadianBusiness Counts.)NOTE: In 2015, Statistics Canada reclassified data that the local boards have analyzed and compared annuallyto report on the “total number of employers” and “changes in local industries”. Statistics Canada has statedthat there will be no historical revision of the CBC data. Therefore, the CBC data is no longer comparableto previous year. This report will only include the reclassified data with no comparisons. And future yearcomparisons will be based on the 2015-16 fiscal start date.LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board 15

5.3 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 5.3.1 Kingston Census Metropolitan Area – from the “Economic Insights Into 15 CMAs, Winter 2015 Overview Kingston’s arduous recovery from the 2008– 2009 recession gained some traction in 2014 as real gross domestic product growth hit 1 per cent in 2014, a three-year high. The area has been limited by its relatively heavy dependence on public money, which has been in short supply recently. Indeed, Kingston’s GDP growth has lagged Ontario’s for five straight years, with an average annual shortfall just under 1 percentage point over this period. And, while we expect Kingston’s economic growth to accelerate to 1.8 per cent in 2015 as the outlook improves for the local goods sector, more softness in the area’s government-dependent industries will again leave the area trailing Ontario’s 2.6 percent advance. Still, the expected improvements in manufacturing and construction are important; growth in both industries is forecast to hit multi-year highs. The relatively tepid economy has trimmed total net migration for four straight years, although net flows from other cities, provinces, and countries remain generally positive. Accordingly, population growth dipped to a seven-year low of 0.6 per cent in 2014. Residential demand has been soft under these conditions, although we expect a small rebound in housing starts for 2015. Manufacturing Makes Gains Growth has been elusive for Kingston’s modest manufacturing sector. Industry output fell 5 per cent in 2013 and a further 0.5 per cent in 2014, leaving the1 industry a third smaller than in 2000.23 Kingston’s manufacturing sector produces only 6 per cent of its GDP, compared with 13 per cent province-wide. Better times await as the low Canadian dollar and recovering U.S. economy54 boost Ontario’s manufacturing exports. Kingston’s manufacturing output is forecast to rise 2.6 per cent in 2015.6 Growth will be aided by the opening last summer of a production facility by Grafoid, a high-tech7 company that has developed a new form of graphene, a remarkably light substance said to be the8 strongest material ever measured. Unfortunately, such success will not prevent a further 2.6 per cent drop in manufacturing employment in 2015. Industry job counts were cut nearly in half between 1998 and 2013, before rebounding by 6.4 per cent last year.16 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

Construction Growth Picking Up Kingston’s construction sector essentially stabilized in 2014,with output rising 0.1 per cent following a 3 per cent drop in 2013. The industry is set for amuch better year in 2015, with output increasing 2 per cent. Optimism is fueled by a big jumpin building permits; these roughly doubled in 2014 from their year-earlier level, driven by a bigincrease in non-residential construction.Kingston is in the midst of the ongoing reconstruction of underground sewer and water servicesalong Princess Street, referred to as the “Big Dig.”The work seeks to replace a sewer system constructed of limestone in the 1800s that severely restrictsdowntown development. Excavation will continue over several years to minimize business disruption.Queen’s University is set to build a new $20-million football and soccer stadium, featuring an 1artificial turf field, state-of-the-art scoreboard, and bowl-style seating for 9,000. Construction 2will begin after the 2015 university football season and be complete in fall 2016. 3Kingston housing starts dropped below 640 units in 2014 after three years of above-average 4activity, which featured annual volumes near 900 units. The drop was chiefly due to a bigpullback among starts of multifamily dwellings, although single-detached activity also eased. 5Hints of overbuilding will permit only a small increase in total starts to 680 units in 2015.Kingston’s ratio of housing starts to population growth was above its 20-year average each year 6between 2011 and 2013. 7Services Growth Also Accelerates Output growth in Kingston’s aggregate services sector slowed 8to 1.1 per cent in 2014 from 1.4 per cent in 2013.Two industries, business services and public administration, saw output shrink. We expect faster 171.7 per cent output growth in the broader services sector this year, with all industries exceptpublic administration growing. LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

A significant portion of Kingston’s economy depends on government funding. This limits the area’s growth prospects, since most governments are attempting to control spending. Indeed, the federal government has promised a balanced budget for 2015–16, while Ontario’s government wants to trim spending growth from 3.1 per cent in 2014 to nearly zero by 2017. The non-commercial services sector, home to publicly funded schools and hospitals, is the area’s biggest industry and generates almost a quarter of Kingston’s GDP—nearly twice the provincial average. Three post-secondary institutions are located here: Queen’s University, the Royal Military College of Canada, and St. Lawrence College. Area hospitals are also important. Non-commercial services output is forecast to rise 1.8 per cent in 2015, the lowest in three years. The area also has a large military base and a federal prison, which are included in the public administration sector. This industry’s output is forecast to contract for the fifth straight year,1 with the 2015 drop clocking in at 0.3 per cent.2 But since most of the declines have been small, public administration output is only about 33 per cent below its 2010 level. Output growth is forecast to finally resume in 2016, albeit at a4 modest 0.7 per cent pace.5 Finance, insurance, and real estate is the largest private sector industry. Its output rose only 0.86 per cent in 2014 after advances exceeding 2 per cent in four straight years.7 Kingston’s market for existing homes is soft; although it is in a balanced state, sales declined8 in both 2013 and 2014 and prices are essentially flat. But persistently low interest rates and slightly higher employment should help the resale market this year. This, combined with renewed growth in housing starts, should help lift finance, insurance, and real estate output a faster 2.3 per cent in 2015. 18 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

Kingston’s real GDP is forecast to grow by 1.8 per cent in 2015, the strongest gain in fiveyears. This better economic performance will improve the job market, with employmentforecast to rise 0.6 per cent this year, after a dip in 2014. The next few years look similar,with ongoing moderate gains in both output and employment.LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 19

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5.3.2 Counties of Leeds & GrenvilleNOTE: There is no CMA (Census Metropolitan Area) that reflects the specific area of Leeds& Grenville. Therefore, there is no reliable forecasting data on the economic outlook for thisarea. The information provided in this section has been primarily gleaned from the report on“Economic Development in Leeds & Grenville, April 2015” and from the data analysis of the1000 Islands Region Workforce Development using Census and National Household Survey data.Over the last two decades, there has been a significant loss of manufacturing jobs in Leeds andGrenville as well as across Canada and the United States. Many of the manufacturing jobshave gone off shore to countries in Asia. Many of the larger private sector employers in Leedsand Grenville have disappeared or reduced their levels of employment and investment. Thisis due primarily to costs – the costs of manufacturing and shipping goods is much less thosecountries than it is in Canada or the United States.This impact has caused a shift in jobs from the traditional manufacturing sector to the servicesector, often at lower rates of pay and benefits. Between 2001 and 2011, there has been a lossof over 3000 jobs in the manufacturing sector in Leeds and Grenville - a loss of 2225 jobs from2001 – 2006 and a further loss of 820 jobs from 2006 – 2011. Employment in Leeds & Grenville Counties # JOBS 34420 (Place of Work by 2-Digit Industry - NAIC by Employed Labour Force) 5255 4570 Industry 4515 Total - Industry - North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) 2007 2550 44-45 Retail trade 2440 62 Health care and social assistance 2120 31-33 Manufacturing 1585 72 Accommodation and food services 1540 61 Educational services 1435 91 Public administration 1395 54 Professional, scientific and technical services 1295 41 Wholesale trade 1245 12351 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 12252 48-49 Transportation and warehousing 9703 81 Other services (except public administration) 480 385 23 Construction 160 04 56 Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services 0 71 Arts, entertainment and recreation5 52 Finance and insurance6 53 Real estate and rental and leasing7 51 Information and cultural industries8 22 Utilities 21 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 55 Management of companies and enterprises Source: 2011 NHS – Table 10 – POW22 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

From 2006 to 2011 there was a net loss of 1100 (3.3%) jobs in the counties of Leeds andGrenville, primarily in manufacturing (-820), Accommodation and food services (-495),Administrative Support (-470) and Other Services (-385) and Construction (-215). However,there were employment gains primarily in Public Administration (+495), Retail Trade (+380),Finance & Insurance (+285), and Wholesale Trade (+210)Population By Age Characteristics 2011 - 1000 Islands Region Population Distribution by Age - 1000 Islands Region AGE 1000 1000 Frontenac Frontenac Leeds & Leeds & Loyalist Loyalist % Ontario %COHORT Islands Islands % Grenville Grenville Region Region % %Total 265,265 100% 149,740 100% 99,305 100% 16,220 100% 158%Populationby AgeGroup0 to 4 12,470 4.7% 7,335 4.9% 4,355 4.4% 780 4.8% 5.5% 820 5.1% 5.5%5 to 9 12,805 4.8% 7,170 4.8% 4,815 4.8% 940 5.8% 5.9% 2,540 15.7% 16.9%10 to 14 14,320 5.4% 7,660 5.1% 5,720 5.8% 975 6.0% 6.7% 870 5.4% 6.6%0-14 39,595 14.9% 22,165 14.8% 14,890 15.0% 900 5.5% 6.3%15 to 19 17,335 6.5% 9,865 6.6% 6,495 6.5% 965 5.9% 6.2% 1,090 6.7% 6.6%20 to 24 17,925 6.8% 12,090 8.1% 4,965 5.0% 1,055 6.5% 7.2%25 to 29 15,265 5.8% 10,145 6.8% 4,220 4.2% 1,395 8.6% 8.2% 6,275 38.7% 41.1%30 to 34 14,460 5.5% 8,980 6.0% 4,515 4.5% 1,270 7.8% 7.8% 1,210 7.5% 6.7%35 to 39 15,025 5.7% 8,435 5.6% 5,500 5.5% 1,255 7.7% 6.0% 945 5.8% 4.4%40 to 44 17,250 6.5% 9,680 6.5% 6,515 6.6% 655 4.0% 3.4% 495 3.1% 2.8%45 to 49 21,440 8.5% 11,785 8.1% 8,260 8.3% 295 1.8% 2.1% 310 1.9% 1.9%20-49 101,365 38.2% 61,115 40.8% 33,975 34.2% 6,435 39.7% 35.1% 43.6 40.450 to 54 21,305 8.0% 11,520 7.7% 8,515 8.6%55 to 59 19,795 7.5% 10,455 7.0% 8,130 8.2%60 to 64 18,780 7.1% 9,700 6.5% 7,825 7.9%64 to 69 14,560 5.5% 7,430 5.0% 6.2%70 to 74 10,950 4.1% 5,745 3.8% 4,550 4.6%75 to 79 8,950 3.4% 4,850 3.2% 3,605 3.6%80 to 84 6,575 2.5% 3,610 2.4% 2,670 2.7% 1 285+ 6,080 2.3% 3,285 2.2% 2,485 2.5% 3 450+ 106,995 40.3% 56,595 37.8% 43,965 44.3% 5Median 41.6 46.7age of the 6population 7 8% of the 85.1 85.2 85 84.4 83populationaged 15and overSource: Statistics Canada, 2011 CensusThe population of Leeds and Grenville is ageing faster at a median age of 46.7 compared toOntario with a median age of 40.4. LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board 23

Factors of Population Growth from July 2013 to June 2014* July 2013 to June 2014 Population Natural Net Net Net Total Net TOTAL 2014 Increase International Migration GROWTH Interprovincial Intraprovincial (July 1) Migration 1042 (86.5%) 1204 Migration Migration 983 (93.7%) 1049 Kingston 168,353 162 (13.4%) 105 (8.7%) 392 (32.6%) 545 (45.3%) 20 -267 CMA 82,228 127,811 Frontenac 157,056 66 (6.3%) 98 (9.3%) 339 (32.3%) 546 (52.1%) Leeds & 101,355 -287 0 -46 66 Grenville Ontario 13,678,740 45,583 96,208 -13,980 0 *Annual Demographic Estimates: Sub-Provincial 2013 – 2014 , Statistics Canada – Catalogue No. 91-214-X , July 2014 The counties of Leeds & Grenville had an estimated negative population growth in the year ending June 2014 of 276. This was attributed to natural decreases of population of -287 (more deaths than birth) and very little migration. A slowing and/or declining population suggests a limited labour supply and training should be focused on existing supply. It may also indicate a greater need to increase migration to the area. This region is solely reliant on external factors in increasing its population and labour supply. It needs to continue to focus on attracting more migrants to the area from not only Ontario and the rest of the country but internationally as well. As the population in Leeds and Grenville ages, more people retire, and as technology advances, there is an expectation that there will be a large gap between the skills of available employees and the jobs available. Data also suggests that due to a lack of growth and possible decline of workers, that the area may experience a shortage of labour in the area. Some employers are finding it more difficult to find qualified and skilled employees. However, the results of a recent survey with employers in the 1000 Islands Region, indicate that employers do not feel there is a shortage of labour at this time and that there are ample number of applicants to employment openings. 5.4 POPULATION Population growth drives the labour supply in a region, therefore, it is important to identify population trends over time. A growing population suggests an increased labour supply and higher training needs. Slowing and/or declining population growth suggests a limited labour supply and training should be focused on existing supply. It may also indicate a greater need to increase migration to the area. Ultimately it is important that the supply of the labour force is1 adequate to address the employment demands of the employers in the area to ensure a thriving2 and vibrant economy.34 5.4A: Population Growth 2001 - 2011 Population Change5 Table 5.4A: Population Growth6 Geography 2001 2006 2011 2006-2011 (%) Frontenac County 138,606 143,865 149,738 4.1 96,606 99,206 99,306 0.17 Leeds & Grenville Counties8 Loyalist Township 14,590 15,062 16,221 7.7 100 Islands Region (TOTAL) 249,802 258,133 265,265 2.8 ONTARIO 11,410,046 12,160,282 12,851,821 5.7 Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 Census24 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

Population Growth - Table 5.4A: • The population for the 1000 Islands Region grew by 2.8% from 2006-2011, which is less than half of the national growth of 5.9% and Ontario’s growth of 5.7%. It is interesting to note that if you exclude the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) from Ontario’s data the growth of the population is 3.1%. Therefore, the population growth of the 1000 Island Region is quite comparable. • The population in Frontenac County grew by 4.1 %, while the counties of Leeds & Grenville experienced a minimum growth of 0.1%. Loyalist Township, which is included in the boundaries of the 1000 Islands Region experienced significant growth of population at 7.7%.It is not sufficient to know whether or not the area is experiencing population growth. It is alsonecessary to understand the factors of this population growth/decline.5.4B: Factors of Population GrowthTable 5.4B-1: Factors of Population Growth from July 2011 to June 2012* July 2011 to June 2012 Population Natural Net Net Net Total Net TOTAL 2012 Increase International Migration GROWTH Interprovincial Intraprovincial (July 1) Migration 1383 Migration Migration 1257 21Kingston CMA 165,472 152 (11.0%) 181 (13.1%) 136 (22.8%) 734 (53.1%) 1,231 (89.0%) 139.606Frontenac 156,063 161 (12.8%) 172 (13.7%) 283 (22.5%) 641 (51.0%) 1,096 (87.2%)Leeds & 103,186 -304 21 -75 379 325GrenvilleOntario 13,505,900 45,598 102,099 -8091 0 94,008*Annual Demographic Estimates: Sub-Provincial 2011 – 2012 , Statistics Canada – Catalogue No. 91-214-X , February 2013Table 5.4B-2: Factors of Population Growth from July 2013 to June 2014* July 2013 to June 2014 Population Natural Net Net Net Total Net TOTAL 2014 Increase International Migration GROWTH Interprovincial Intraprovincial 1 (July 1) Migration 1204 2 Migration Migration 1049 3 -267 4Kingston CMA 168,353 162 (13.4%) 105 (8.7%) 392 (32.6%) 545 (45.3%) 1042 (86.5%) 127,811 5Frontenac 157,056 66 (6.3%) 98 (9.3%) 339 (32.3%) 546 (52.1%) 983 (93.7%) 6Leeds & 101,355 -287 0 -46 66 20 7Grenville 8Ontario 13,678,740 45,583 96,208 -13,980 0 82,228 25*Annual Demographic Estimates: Sub-Provincial 2013 – 2014 , Statistics Canada – Catalogue No. 91-214-X , July 2014Factors of Population Growth - Table 5.4B-1 & 5.4B-2Table 5.4B looks at factors estimating population growth from 2 periods of time. Kingston Census Metropolitan Area (CMA)1 The Kingston CMA was estimated to have had decline in the growth of population from 1 Kingston CMA includes the City of Kingston and the township of Frontenac Islands, South Frontenac and Loyalist LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

2012 to 2014 of 12.9%. Significant areas of growth continued to be from net-migration from within Ontario (intra) and and from other provinces (inter) (75.9% in 2012 vs 84.4% in 2014) There continues to be little growth estimated from net international migration growth due to natural increases (#births less #deaths). Frontenac Similar to the Kingston CMA, the county of Frontenac also shows an estimated decline in population growth from 2012 to 2014 of 16.5% - again resulting mainly from net- migration from within Ontario and other provinces. (73.5% in 2012 and 84.7% in 2014.) There were substantial declines from 2012 to 2014 in population growth from international migration and natural increases. The Kingston CMA area and the County of Frontenac, rely heavily on external factors in increasing its population and labour supply. It indicates a vibrant economy able to attract migrants but indicates a potential concern if there is no longer the will to move to this area. Leeds & Grenville The counties of Leeds & Grenville had an estimated negative population growth in the year ending June 2014 of 276. This was attributed to natural decreases of population of -287 (more deaths than birth) and very little migration. This region is solely reliant on external factors in increasing its population and labour supply. It needs to continue to focus on attracting more migrants to the area from not only Ontario and the rest of the country but internationally as well.1 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board2345678 26

5.4C: Population Growth Rates by Census Metropolitan AreaCMA growth unequal from east to west 1In the Atlantic provinces, the highest population growth during the 2013/2014 period was 2recorded in the St. John’s CMA (11.9 per thousand). The population growth rates in the CMAs 3of Moncton (11.5 per thousand) and Halifax (10.7 per thousand) were similar to the national 4average (10.9 per thousand). In contrast, the only CMA in the country to see a significant declinein its population was in the Atlantic provinces, namely Saint John, New Brunswick, with a 5negative population growth rate of -5.3 per thousand, representing a decrease of 700 persons. 6 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board 7 8 27

In Quebec, the CMAs of the Quebec portion of Ottawa–Gatineau (11.1 per thousand) and Montréal (10.6 per thousand) posted population growth rates similar to the Canadian average, while the growth rates for the Sherbrooke CMA (9.3 per thousand), Québec CMA (7.7 per thousand) and Trois-Rivières CMA (4.5 per thousand) were lower than the national average. The population of the Saguenay CMA remained relatively stable (-0.8 per thousand) during the last period. In Ontario, the population of four of 15 CMAs grew at a rate above the national rate. The Toronto CMA (14.9 per thousand) posted the strongest population growth in the province. However, it was the lowest population growth rate in that CMA since the early 1990s. The CMAs of Oshawa (13.3 per thousand) and Barrie (12.2 per thousand) and the Ontario portion of the Ottawa–Gatineau CMA (11.8 per thousand) also saw their populations grow at a rate above the national average. The population of the Kingston CMA grew as a rate below the national rate. In keeping with the population trends observed at the provincial level, the Prairie region stood out for its strong population growth. The five CMAs in the Prairie provinces all posted higher population growth rates than that of Canada. In addition, during the same period, the population growth rates of the CMAs of Calgary (35.5 per thousand), Edmonton (32.5 per thousand) and Saskatoon (32.3 per thousand) were three times higher than the Canadian average. In British Columbia, the populations of the Kelowna and Vancouver CMAs grew at a steadier rate than that of Canada, posting growth rates of 17.8 per thousand and 12.8 per thousand respectively. The Victoria and Abbotsford–Mission CMAs had low population growth rates (3.0 per thousand and 2.7 per thousand, respectively), down when compared to the average of the past five years.12345678 28 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

5.4D: Population By Age CharacteristicsTable 5.4D: Population By Age Characteristics 2011 - 1000 Islands Region Population Distribution by Age - 1000 Islands Region AGE 1000 1000 Frontenac Frontenac Leeds & Leeds & Loyalist Loyalist % Ontario %COHORT Islands Islands % Grenville Grenville Region Region % 158% % 5.5%Total 265,265 100% 149,740 100% 99,305 100% 16,220 100% 5.5%Population 5.9%by Age 16.9%Group 6.7% 6.6%0 to 4 12,470 4.7% 7,335 4.9% 4,355 4.4% 780 4.8% 6.3% 6.2%5 to 9 12,805 4.8% 7,170 4.8% 4,815 4.8% 820 5.1% 6.6% 7.2%10 to 14 14,320 5.4% 7,660 5.1% 5,720 5.8% 940 5.8% 8.2% 41.1%0-14 39,595 14.9% 22,165 14.8% 14,890 15.0% 2,540 15.7% 7.8% 6.7%15 to 19 17,335 6.5% 9,865 6.6% 6,495 6.5% 975 6.0% 6.0% 4.4%20 to 24 17,925 6.8% 12,090 8.1% 4,965 5.0% 870 5.4% 3.4% 2.8%25 to 29 15,265 5.8% 10,145 6.8% 4,220 4.2% 900 5.5% 2.1% 1.9%30 to 34 14,460 5.5% 8,980 6.0% 4,515 4.5% 965 5.9% 35.1% 40.435 to 39 15,025 5.7% 8,435 5.6% 5,500 5.5% 1,090 6.7% 8340 to 44 17,250 6.5% 9,680 6.5% 6,515 6.6% 1,055 6.5%45 to 49 21,440 8.1% 11,785 7.9% 8,260 8.3% 1,395 8.6%20-49 101,365 38.2% 61,115 40.8% 33,975 34.2% 6,275 38.7%50 to 54 21,305 8.0% 11,520 7.7% 8,515 8.6% 1,270 7.8%55 to 59 19,795 7.5% 10,455 7.0% 8,130 8.2% 1,210 7.5%60 to 64 18,780 7.1% 9,700 6.5% 7,825 7.9% 1,255 7.7%64 to 69 14,560 5.5% 7,430 5.0% 6,185 6.2% 945 5.8%70 to 74 10,950 4.1% 5,745 3.8% 4,550 4.6% 655 4.0%75 to 79 8,950 3.4% 4,850 3.2% 3,605 3.6% 495 3.1%80 to 84 6,575 2.5% 3,610 2.4% 2,670 2.7% 295 1.8%85+ 6,080 2.3% 3,285 2.2% 2,485 2.5% 310 1.9%50+ 106,995 40.3% 56,595 37.8% 43,965 44.3% 6,435 39.7%Median 41.6 46.7 43.6age of thepopulation 1 2% of the 85.1 85.2 85 84.4 3 4population 5aged 15 6and over 7 8Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 Census LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board 29

5.4E: Median Age of Population Table 5.4E: Median Age of The Population 2006 Cencus 2011 NHS Difference 0.8 Frontenac 40.8 41.6 3.1 1.4 Leeds & Grenville 43.6 46.7 Ontario 39.0 40.4 Since 2006, the median age of the population has increased in the three areas noted above with the most significant increase in the United Counties of Leeds and Grenville with a change of 3.1 years. 5.5: Migration Table 5.5: Migration 2006 - 2011 Frontenac Leeds & Grenville TOTAL 1000 Islands Region - less Loyalist AGE Out- Net- Out- Net- Out- Net- GROUP In-Migrants Migrants Migrants In-Migrants Migrants Migrants In-Migrants Migrants Migrants 0-17 7,267 6,653 614 4,225 3,347 878 11,492 10,000 1,492 18-24 7,762 6,064 1,698 2,079 3,491 -1,412 9,841 9,555 286 25-44 16,004 14,422 1,582 6,458 6,076 382 22,462 20,498 1,964 45-64 6,117 5,356 761 5,006 3,305 1,701 11,123 8,661 2,462 65+ 2,354 2,207 147 1,771 1,655 116 4,125 3,862 263 TOTAL 39,504 34,702 4,802 19,539 17,874 1,665 59,043 52,576 6,467 Source: Statistics Canada, Taxfiler Data, 2006-2011 Migration is often a good indicator of how a local labour market is doing. High in-migration suggests greater employment opportunities, while high out-migration suggests a limited work supply, forcing residents to seek out of region employment. Overall the Region (less Loyalist Township) experienced a net in-migration of 6,467 residents from 2006-2011, with the greatest in-migration in the 45-65 age group (2,462) and the 25-44 age group1 (1,964). These are key groups in terms of employment earnings and indicate a good labour supply.2 Both areas of Frontenac and Leeds & Grenville experienced a net increase of migrants to the area.3 (Note: no migration data was available at the census sub-division, therefore there is no data to report4 for Loyalist Township.)5 The 0-17 age group also experienced significant in-migration (1,492), primarily as a consequence of6 the net-in-migration of their parents (the 25-44 and 45-64 age groups) For the age group 18-24, there was a small net in-migration of 286. This was the net effect of the7 two counties posting opposite results. Frontenac achieved net in-migration of 1698, while Leeds &8 Grenville had a net out-migration of 1492 as younger adults left the Region, usually for educational opportunities and to a lesser extent employment needs.30 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

5.6 MOBILITY Frontenac Leeds & Grenville 2011 NHS Reference 2011 NHS ReferenceTable 5.6A: Mobility Status 1 Year Ago Population (143,685) Population (96,935) Lived at same address 1 year ago (non-movers) 85.7% (123,225) 89.7% (86,960) Changed addresses within the same municipality 1 year ago (non-migrants) Moved to another municipality within Ontario 1 year ago (Intraprovincial migrants) 8.5% (12,140) 4.2% (4115) Lived in a different province or territory 1 year ago (Interprovincial) Lived in a different country 1 year ago(External Migrants) 4.2% (6010) 5.1% (4930)Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 NHS 1.1% (1545) 0.7% (670) 0.5% (765) 0.3% (255)A significant number of the population reported that they had not moved from their place ofresidence from 1 year ago (85.7% Frontenac and 89.7% Leeds & Grenville). There was a modestmovement from within the same municipality and from within Ontario but very little movementfrom other parts of Canada or from another country. This indicates a very stable population base.Table 5.6B: Mobility Status 5 Year Ago Frontenac Leeds & Grenville 2011 NHS Reference 2011 NHS Reference Lived at same address 5 years ago (non-movers) Population (137,795) Population (93,235) Changed addresses within the same municipality 5 years ago (non-migrants) Moved to another municipality within Ontario 5 years ago (Intraprovincial migrants) 58.1% (80,065) 67.3% (62,785) Lived in a different province or territory 5 years ago (Interprovincial) Lived in a different country 5 years ago(External Migrants) 22.3% (30,765) 13.7% (12,785)Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 NHS 14.0% (19,280) 16.0% (14,905) 3.5% (4765) 2.0% (1860) 2.1% (2920) 1.0% (910)Even after 5 years, the majority of the population remained at the same resident or moved 1within the same municipality (80.4% Frontenac and 81.0% Leeds & Grenville). There was 2a modest movement from within Ontario but again very little movement from other parts of 3Canada or from another country. This continues to support a very stable population base 4from a longer period of time (5 years). 55.7 LABOUR FORCE DYNAMICS 6Table 5.7A Labour Force Status by Sex - Frontenac 7 8 Frontenac Male Female 31Characteristics 58685 64135 39275 39580Total population 15 years and over 122820 36185 36330 3090 3250In the labour force 78855 19410 24555 66.9% 61.7%Employed 72520 61.7% 56.6% 7.9% 8.2%Unemployed 6340Not in the labour force 43960Participation rate (Total Labour /Pop 15yrs+) 64.2%Employment rate (# Employed/Pop 15yrs+) 59.0%Unemployment rate (# Unemployed/Labour Force) 8.0%Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 NHS LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

Table 5.7B Labour Force Status By Sex – Leeds & Grenville Leeds and Grenville Male Female Characteristics 40260 42505 26390 24805 Total population 15 years and over 82765 24325 23260 2060 1535 In the labour force 51190 13875 17700 65.5% 58.4% Employed 47590 60.4% 54.7% 7.8% 6.2% Unemployed 3600 Not in the labour force 31575 Participation rate (Total Labour /Pop 15yrs+) 61.8% Employment rate (# Employed/Pop 15yrs+) 57.5% Unemployment rate (# Unemployed/Labour Force) 7.0% Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 NHS Table 5.7C Labour Force Status by Sex – Ontario Ontario Male Female Characteristics 5,064,715 5,408,950 3,542,030 3,322,955 Total population 15 years and over 10,473,670 3,249,165 3,047,840 292,865 275,120 In the labour force 6,864,990 1,522,690 2,085,990 69.9% 61.4% Employed 6,297,005 64.2% 56.3% Unemployed 567,985 8.3% 8.3% Not in the labour force 3,608,685 Participation rate (Total Labour /Pop 15yrs+) 65.5% Employment rate (# Employed/Pop 15yrs+) 60.1% Unemployment rate (# Unemployed/Labour Force) 8.3% Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 NHS The unemployment rates for both Frontenac (8.0%) and Leeds & Grenville (7.0%) are lower than that of Ontario 8.3%. These rates are significantly higher than the rates from the 2006 Census of 6.7%, 5.7% and 6.4% respectively. Employment rates are lower than that of Ontario indicating a lower number of people employed1 based on the working age population (15 years and over)2 30% of the population over the age of 15 do not participate in the labour force, This could be3 a pool of untapped labour.4567832 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

Table 5.7D Labour Force Status by Age - Frontenac Total 15-24 15-19 20-24 25-64 25-44 45-64 65+Characteristics 11310 78300 35715 42585 23595 9210 61760 30365 31395 3320Total population 15 years and over 122820 20925 9615 7240 58470 28415 30060 3165 1975 3290 1950 1335In the labour force 78855 13775 4565 2100 46545 5350 11190 115 81.4 20275Employed 72520 10885 3645 78.9 85 73.7 64 74.7 79.6 70.6 14.1Unemployed 6340 2895 920 21.4 5.3 6.4 4.3 13.4 4.7Not in the labour force 43960 7145 5050Participation rate (Total Labour /Pop 15yrs+) 64.2% 65.8% 47.5Employment rate (# Employed/Pop 15yrs+) 59.0% 52% 37.9Unemployment rate (# Unemployed/Labour 8.0% 21% 20.2Force)Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 NHSTable 5.7E Labour Force Status by Age – Leeds & Grenville Total 15-24 15-19 20-24 25-64 25-44 45-64 65+Characteristics 82765 11335 6435 4895 53175 20635 32540 18260Total population 15 years and over 41310 17890 23420 2640 39225 16885 22340 2500In the labour force 51190 7240 3230 4010 2085 1010 1075 140 11865 2745 9120 15615Employed 47590 5860 2540 3325 14.5 77.7 86.7 72 13.7Unemployed 3600 1380 685 690 73.8 81.8 68.7 5.6 4.6 5.3Not in the labour force 31575 4090 3205 885 5Participation rate (Total Labour /Pop 15yrs+) 61.8% 63.9 50.2 81.9Employment rate (# Employed/Pop 15yrs+) 57.5% 51.7 39.5 67.9Unemployment rate (# Unemployed/Labour 7.0% 19.1 21.2 17.2Force)Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 NHSSignificantly high unemployment rates of over 19% for youth under the age of 24 compared 1to the overall unemployment rates of 8.0% in Frontenac and 7.0% in Leeds & Grenville. This 2is in contrast to the low unemployment rates of between 4.3 – 6.4 for those aged 25 and over. 3This may indicate the need for more targeted programming, training and services for those 4under the age of 25. 5 6 7 8 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board 33

Table 5.7F - Labour Force By Occupation - Frontenac 2011 NHS Male Female 78860 39,280 39,580 Total Population 15+ in the Labour Force 1400 Occupation – not Applicable2 77460 550 850 Total Occupations by NOC -2011 (see note below) 8065 38,730 38,735 0 Management Occupations 11250 1 Business, Finance and Administration Occupations 4575 4845 3220 2 Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations 6445 2930 8325 3 Health Occupations 14780 3485 1095 4 Occupations in Education, Law & Social, Community and Government Services 2280 1415 5035 5 Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport 18840 6475 8310 6 Sales and Service Occupations 8980 920 1355 7 Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations 795 8305 10540 8 Natural Resources, Agriculture and Related Production Occupations 1440 8480 505 9 Occupations in Manufacturing and Utilities 700 1175 95 Source: Statistics Canada - National Household Survey 2011 260 The top 3 occupations of the labour force in Frontenac County in 2011 were: Sales and Services; Education, Law & Social, Community and Government; and Business, Finance and Administrative Services. NOTE: e 2011 National Occupational Classification (NOC) System was used for the NHS 2011. Because there were substantial revisions from the NOC 2006, even at the general category levels, there has been no comparison with 2006 Census occupational figures. Table 5.7G - Labour Force By Occupation - Leeds & Grenville 2011 NHS Male Female 26390 24805 Total Population 15+ in the Labour Force 51190 505 310 24295 Occupation – not Applicable3 815 26080 1995 3610 5335 Total Occupations by NOC -2011 (see note below) 50375 1855 625 2575 3135 0 Management Occupations 5605 3685 515 7751 1 Business, Finance and Administration Occupations 7105 1720 68852 225 4253 2 Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations 3200 4975 3904 7540 3 Health Occupations 3645 1175 10405 4 Occupations in Education, Law & Social, Community and Government Services 5410 189567 5 Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport 10008 6 Sales and Service Occupations 11855 34 7 Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations 7970 8 Natural Resources, Agriculture and Related Production 1565 Occupations 9 Occupations in Manufacturing and Utilities 2935 Source: Statistics Canada - National Household Survey 2011 2 Unemployed persons aged 15 years and over who have never worked for pay or in self-employment or who had last worked prior to January 1, 2005 and January 1, 2010 only respective to 2006 Census and 2011 NHS. 3 Unemployed persons aged 15 years and over who have never worked for pay or in self-employment or who had last worked prior to January 1, 2005 and January 1, 2010 only respective to 2006 Census and 2011 NHS. LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

The top 3 occupations of the labour force in Leeds & Grenville in 2011 were: Sales and Services;Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators; and Business, Finance and Administrative Services.NOTE: e 2011 National Occupational Classification (NOC) System was used for the NHS 2011. Because therewere substantial revisions from the NOC 2006, even at the general category levels, there has been no comparisonwith 2006 Census occupational figures.5.8 JOBSTable 5.8A - Job Comparison – 2006 vs 2011 JOBS 2006 JOBS 2011 Variance % Variance 111400 1720 1.6%1000 Islands Region (Total) 109680 74170 3420 4.8% 34420 -1190 -3.3%Frontenac County 70750 2810 -515 -15.5%Leeds & Grenville 35610Loyalist Township 3325Source: 2011 NHS, 2006 CensusSmall increase in the number of jobs in the 1000 Islands Region of 1.6% mainly due to thesignificant increase in jobs in Frontenac County.Table 5.8B - TOP 20 Jobs in Frontenac County by Occupation by Employed Labour Force– 2011 NHSOccupation # JOBS % TotalTotal - Occupation - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2011 74170 100.0%40 Professional occupations in education services 6990 9.0%12 Administrative and financial supervisors and administrative occupations 4855 6.5%67 Service support and other service occupations, n.e.c. 4310 5.8%65 Service representatives and other customer and personal services occupations 3905 5.3%01-05 Specialized middle management occupations 3610 4.9%14 Office support occupations 3510 4.7%64 Sales representatives and salespersons - wholesale and retail trade 3420 4.6%06 Middle management occupations in retail and wholesale trade and customer services 2920 3.9%63 Service supervisors and specialized service occupations 2615 3.5% 1 222 Technical occupations related to natural and applied sciences 2435 3.3% 3 466 Sales support occupations 2355 3.2% 541 Professional occupations in law and social, community and government services 2295 3.1% 621 Professional occupations in natural and applied sciences 2100 2.8% 7 830 Professional occupations in nursing 2075 2.8% 3544 Care providers and educational, legal and public protection support occupations 2015 2.7%42 Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services 1905 2.6%72 Industrial, electrical and construction trades 1820 2.5%32 Technical occupations in health 1800 2.4%31 Professional occupations in health (except nursing) 1765 2.4%75 Transport and heavy equipment operation and related maintenance occupations 1710 2.3%SUB-TOTAL 58110 78.3%Source: 2011 NHS (National Household Survey) by POW (Place of Work) LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

The top 20 jobs in Frontenac County represent 78.3% of the total jobs in the county. Table 5.8C - TOP 20 Jobs in Leeds & Grenville by Occupation by Employed Labour Force – 2011 NHS Occupation # JOBS % Total Total - Occupation - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2011 34420 100.0% 67 Service support and other service occupations, n.e.c. 2105 6.1% 65 Service representatives and other customer and personal services occupations 1925 5.6% 64 Sales representatives and salespersons - wholesale and retail trade 1820 5.3% 12 Administrative and financial supervisors and administrative occupations 1730 5.0% 06 Middle management occupations in retail and wholesale trade and customer services 1670 4.9% 66 Sales support occupations 1600 4.6% 14 Office support occupations 1425 4.1% 40 Professional occupations in education services 1200 3.5% 75 Transport and heavy equipment operation and related maintenance occupations 1195 3.5% 22 Technical occupations related to natural and applied sciences 1155 3.4% 07-09 Middle management occupations in trades, transportation, production and utilities 1105 3.2% 01-05 Specialized middle management occupations 1085 3.2% 63 Service supervisors and specialized service occupations 1020 3.0% 73 Maintenance and equipment operation trades 1010 2.9% 41 Professional occupations in law and social, community and government services 845 2.5% 15 Distribution, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations 820 2.4% 72 Industrial, electrical and construction trades 820 2.4% 42 Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services 795 2.3% 21 Professional occupations in natural and applied sciences 780 2.3% 30 Professional occupations in nursing 765 2.2% SUB-TOTAL 24870 72.4% Source: 2011 NHS (National Household Survey) by POW (Place of Work) The top 20 jobs in the counties of Leeds and Grenville 72.4% of the total jobs in the county.1 5.9 EMPLOYERS23 Table 5.9A # Employers by Employee Size Range – June 20154 Employee Size Range Number of Employers Number of Employers5 Frontenac Leeds & Grenville 2015 201567 0 7571 51808 1-4 2123 1489 36 5-9 944 674 10-19 640 352 20-49 439 236 50-99 132 67 100-199 47 33 200-499 30 18 500+ 13 4 Total 11,939 8053 Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Counts (formerly Canadian Business Patterns) LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

NOTE: In 2015, Statistics Canada reclassified data that the local boards have analyzed and comparedannually to report on the “total number of employers” and “changes in local industries”. Statistics Canadahas stated that there will be no historical revision of the CBP data. Therefore, the CBP data is no longercomparable to previous year. This report will only include the reclassified data with no comparisons. Futureyear comparisons will be based on the 2015-16 fiscal start date The name of Canadian Business Patterns hasalso been changed to Canadian Business Counties. Refer to Glossary of Terms for further information onCanadian Business Counties.Table 5.9B TOP 20 Employers by 3-digit Industry - Frontenac - June 2015NAICS Frontenac % Total #ERs Ontario Total % Total #ERs 17.14531 - Real Estate 2,802 23.47 215384 14.36 5.55541 - Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 1,273 10.66 180432 6.01 3.65621 - Ambulatory Health Care Services 1,164 9.75 69719 4.08238 - Specialty Trade Contractors 689 5.77 75478 2.89 3.31523 - Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other 433 3.63 45882 2.04Financial Investment and Related Activities 2.03561 - Administrative and Support Services 392 3.28 51317 2.12722 - Food Services and Drinking Places 361 3.02 36279 2.63 1.65236 - Construction of Buildings 355 2.97 41542 1.03 266 2.23 25674 1.23813 - Religious, Grant-Making, Civic, and Professional and 0.99Similar Organizations 1.09 1.06812 - Personal and Laundry Services 255 2.14 25525 0.85 3.51811 - Repair and Maintenance 234 1.96 26590 0.67 100551 - Management of Companies and Enterprises 231 1.93 33101112 - Animal Production 187 1.57 20689624 - Social Assistance 177 1.48 12916445 - Food and Beverage Stores 170 1.42 15467448 - Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 159 1.33 12398611 - Educational Services 147 1.23 13701524 - Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 129 1.08 13270453 - Miscellaneous Store Retailers 123 1.03 10654484 - Truck Transportation 121 1.01 44112SUB-TOTAL – Top 20 Employers 9668 1.09 970130 1 2TOTAL #EMPLOYERS 11939 100 1256277 3 4Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Counts 5The top 20 industries from 102 industries represent 81% of the total number of employersFrontenac County. The corresponding industries for Ontario represent 77% of the total number 6of employers. 7 8 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board 37

Table 5.9C TOP 20 Employers by 3-digit Industry - Leeds & Grenville - June 2015 NAICS Leeds & % Total #ERs Ontario Total Distribution % Grenville 531 - Real Estate 1,260 15.65 215384 17.14 541 - Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 887 11.01 180432 14.36 238 - Specialty Trade Contractors 664 8.25 75478 6.01 112 - Animal Production 420 5.22 20689 1.65 236 - Construction of Buildings 362 4.50 41542 3.31 621 - Ambulatory Health Care Services 360 4.47 69719 5.55 561 - Administrative and Support Services 290 3.60 51317 4.08 111 - Crop Production 249 3.09 22937 1.83 811 - Repair and Maintenance 226 2.81 26590 2.12 722 - Food Services and Drinking Places 225 2.79 36279 2.89 523 - Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other 192 2.38 45882 3.65 Financial Investment and Related Activities 484 - Truck Transportation 186 2.31 44112 3.51 813 - Religious, Grant-Making, Civic, and Professional and 180 2.24 25674 2.04 Similar Organizations 812 - Personal and Laundry Services 179 2.22 25525 2.03 445 - Food and Beverage Stores 125 1.55 15467 1.23 551 - Management of Companies and Enterprises 123 1.53 33101 2.63 453 - Miscellaneous Store Retailers 118 1.47 10654 0.85 721 - Accommodation Services 113 1.40 5688 0.45 624 - Social Assistance 108 1.34 12916 1.03 441 - Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 88 1.09 8376 0.67 SUB-TOTAL – Top 20 Employers 6355 1.09 967762 0.67 TOTAL #EMPLOYERS 8053 100 1256277 100 Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Counts1 The top 20 industries from 102 industries represent 79% of the total number of employers in2 the counties of Leeds and Grenville. The corresponding industries for Ontario represent 77%3 of the total number of employers.4 5.10 EDUCATION5 Table 5.10A - Labour Force By Educational Attainment - Frontenac67 Frontenac NHS Male Female8 2011 58685 64130 38 Total Population aged 15+ by highest certificate, diploma or degree 122820 (47.8%) (52.2%) 9404 No certificate, Diploma or Degree 19355 (15.7%) 15835 9950 High School Certificate or Equivalent 32800 (26.6%) 7015 16965 Apprenticeship or Trades Certificate or Diploma 10160 (8.3%) 11165 3145 College, CEGEP or Other Non-University Certificate or Diploma 27585 (22.5%) 1295 16420 University Certificate, Degree or Diploma below the bachelor level 3280 (2.6%) 13965 1980 University Certificate, Degree or Diploma at or above the bachelor level 29640 (24.3%) 15680 Source: Statistics Canada - National Household Survey 2011 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

In Frontenac County 42.3% of the population over 15 have an educational attainment of highschool or less.But 48.6% of the population has a college or university certificate, diploma or degree.More females have no certificate, diploma or degree.Over twice as many males have more apprenticeship or trades certificates or diplomas thanfemales. But females have significantly more college and university credentials.Table 5.10B - Labour Force By Educational Attainment - Leeds & Grenville Leeds & Grenville Male Female NHS 2011 42500Total Population aged 15+ by highest certificate, diploma or degree 82765 40265 (51.4%) (48.6%) 7935No certificate, Diploma or Degree 16210 (19.6%) 8275 12660 2230High School Certificate or Equivalent 24320 (29.4%) 11665 12265 1170Apprenticeship or Trades Certificate or Diploma 7865 (9.5%) 5640 6250College, CEGEP or Other Non-University Certificate or Diploma 20595 (24.9%) 8330University Certificate, Degree or Diploma below the bachelor level 2235 (2.7%) 1070University Certificate, Degree or Diploma at or above the bachelor level 11530 (13.9%) 5280Source: Statistics Canada - National Household Survey 2011In the counties of Leeds & Grenville 49.0% of the population over 15 have an educationalattainment of high school or less.But 38.8% of the population has a college or university certificate, diploma or degree.More males than females have no certificate, diploma or degree.Over twice as many males have more apprenticeship or trades certificates or diplomas than 1females. But females have significantly more college and university credentials. 2 3OTHER EDUCATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS - REFER TO DATA TABLES 4Detailed educational attainment data can be found in an accompaning document referred to as 5Data Tables. In these tables educational attainment is broken down further by age groupingsand also by total labour force, employed labour force, unemployed labour force and those not 6in the labour force. The reader can ascertain a lot of information from these tables which may 7be surprising. 8In Frontenac County, there are over 19,355 or 15.8% of people over the age of 15 that have no 39certificate , diploma or degree. That may seem alarming but if you investigate further you willfind that 5730 or 29.6% are employed and only 860 or 4.4% are unemployed. The remainder12765 or 66% are not in the labour force.LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

As a matter of concern is that 35.9 % of the population over the age of 15 is not in the labour force in Frontenac County. 34.1% of youth between the ages of 15 and 24 are not in the labour force in Frontenac County and of those 89.2% have no post-secondary education. Only 21.0% of those between the ages of 25 and 64 are not in the labour force. But generally those with a higher level education have a higher degree of employment but the researcher needs to look closely at all the data to make specific recommendations. 5.11 INCOME Table 5.11A - Income Frontenac Leeds & Grenville Ontario $75,219 $60,061 $71,670 Characteristic $87,305 $79,091 $80,678 Median Family Income 2.0 Average Family Income 2.0 $30,831 2.0 Average Family Size $31,814 $38,319 $30,525 Individual Median Income $40,983 $42,264 Individual Average Income Median and average family income is substantially higher in Frontenac County. Median family income is much lower in Leeds & Grenville. Individual median income is relatively the same across the 3 geographies with those in Frontenac being the highest.1234567840 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

6 EMPLOYMENT ONTARIO DATAThe Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities provided Local Boards with aggregatedEmployment Ontario data relevant to each individual Local Board geographical area. This datacaptured client and program information for the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 fiscal years. Therewas also regional and provincial data provided to offer comparative context. The data elementswere to serve as the basis for discussions that relate to local service and provide evidence whichmay identify service issues-gaps, overlaps and under-serviced populations.The data elements included Employment Services, Literacy and Basic Skills, Second Careerand Apprenticeship. This report was derived from data entered by EO service providers intothe Employment Ontario Information System- Case Management System (EOIS – CaMS).The Ministry strived to keep the data elements, derived from the different programs, asconsistent as possible to allow for identification of cross-program commonalities. But it shouldbe noted there are possible limitations to this data. It is important to keep in mind that theMinistry has conducted a careful review of the data to ensure that it does not compromise clientconfidentiality. The data was provided in aggregated form and individual client or organizationcannot be identified. Also, to ensure confidentiality, any data counts lower than 10 participantshad been suppressed and were reflected as zero in the data reports.The Board received the Employment Ontario client data in July 2015. The data was reviewed bythe Board and discussion points were identified and shared with employment service providersin the area.The findings from this data are including this section of the LLMP.Table #6.1: EMPLOYMENT SERVICE COMPARISONS 1000 Islands Region 2014 vs 2015EMPLOYMENT SERVICE 1000 % 1000 % Variance %Variance Islands Islands 2015 vs 2015 vs Region Region 2014 2014 1 2015 2 2014 3Number of Clients 4Unassisted R&I Clients 9777 67.1% 10341 67.1% 564 5.8% 5 32.9% 281 5.9%ES Assisted Service Clients 4795 32.9% 5076 100.0% 845 5.8% 6Total # of Clients 14752 100.0% 15417 7 8Clients by Age Group 1376 28.7% 1555 30.6% 179 13.0%15-24 2025 42.2% 2154 42.4% 129 6.4%25-44 1347 28.1% 1322 26.0% -25 -1.9%45-6465 and older 47 1.0% 45 0.9% -2 -4.3%Total by Age Group 4795 100.0% 5076 100.0% 281 5.9% LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board 41

Gender 2333 48.8% 2445 48.2% 112 4.8% Female 2452 51.2% 2626 51.8% 174 7.1% Male Undisclosed 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 n/a Total by Gender 4785 100.0% 5071 100.0% 286 6.0% Designated Groups 162 14.5% 200 14.9% 38 23.5% Newcomer 212 19.0% 271 20.2% 59 27.8% Visible Minority 603 54.0% 681 50.8% 78 12.9% Person with Disability 140 12.5% 188 14.0% 48 34.3% Aboriginal Group 1117 85.5% 1340 85.1% 223 20.0% Total by Designated Group 9 34.6% Educational Attainment at Intake 26 0.5% 35 0.7% 56 8.3% Less than Grade 8 678 14.1% 734 14.5% 104 5.7% Less than Grade 12 1818 37.9% 1922 37.9% -7 -9.0% Completion of Secondary 78 1.6% 71 1.4% 74 5.4% Certificate of Apprenticeship / Journey Person 1379 28.8% 1453 28.6% 70 12.1% Completion of College 579 12.1% 649 12.8% -25 -10.5% Completion of University 237 4.9% 212 4.2% 281 5.9% Other 4795 100.0% 5076 100.0% Total by Educational Attainment at Intake 22 7.5% 22 7.5% Internationally Trained Professionals 293 100.0% 315 100.0% Internationally Trained Professionals 293 100.0% 315 100.0% 61 6.8% Total by Internationally Trained Prof. 65 8.9% 27 16.2%1 Source of Income 903 18.8% 964 19.0% -78 -6.9%2 Employment Insurance 729 15.2% 794 15.6% 206 11.1%3 Ontario Works 167 3.5% 194 3.8% 281 5.9%4 Ontario Disability Support Program 1133 23.6% 1055 20.8%5 No Source of Income 1863 38.9% 2069 408% 91 3.8% Other 4795 100.0% 5076 100.0% 121 16.8%6 Total by Source of Income 41 6.5% 27 2.6%7 Length of Time Out of Employment/Training 2412 50.3% 2503 49.3% 280 5.8%8 Less than 3 months 721 15.0% 842 16.6% 3-6 months 630 13.1% 671 13.2% 267 8.3% 42 6-12 months 1032 21.5% 1059 20.9% -29 -4.0% More than 12 months 4795 100.0% 5075 100.0% 43 4.9% Total by Length of Time Out … 281 5.9% Outcomes at Exit 3204 66.8% 3471 68.4% Employed 717 15.0% 688 13.6% Training/Education 874 18.2% 917 18.1% Other 4795 100.0% 5076 100.0% Total by Outcomes at Exit LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

Employment Outcomes At Exit 1834 57.2% 2067 59.6% 233 12.7%Employed Full-Time 539 16.8% 725 20.9% 186 34.5%Employed Part-Time 157 4.9% 145 4.2% -12 -7.6%Self-Employed 41 1.3% 34 1.0%Both employed and in education 34 1.0% 27 0.8% -7 -17.1%Both employed and in training 44 1.4% 40 1.2% -4 -12.9%Employed Apprentice 485 15.1% 369 10.6% -4 -9.1%Employed in area of training/choice 21 0.7% 33 1.0% -116 -23.9%Employed in a more suitable job 52 1.6% 31 0.9% 12 57.1%Employed in a prof occ/trade 3204 100.0% 3471 100.0% -21 -40.4%Total by Employment Outcomes at Exit 267 8.3%Training/Education at Exit 70 9.8% 85 12.4% 15 21.4%OSSD or equivelent 60 8.4% 79 11.5% 19 31.7%Postsecondary 26 3.6% 34 4.9% 8 30.8%Academic Upgrading 27 3.8% 39 5.7% 12 44.4%Other Education 195 27.2% 163 23.7% -32 -16.4%Second Career 135 18.8% 115 16.7% -20 -14.8%EO training initiatives 19 2.6% 25 3.6% 6 31.6%EO Literacy training 30 4.2% 22 3.2% -8 -26.7%ESL/FSL 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 n/aMCI Bridge Programs 82 11.4% 32 4.7% -50 -61.0%Federal 73 10.2% 94 13.7% 21 28.8%Other occupational skills training 717 100.0% 688 100.0% -29 -4.0%Total by Training/Education at ExitCOMMENTS PERTAINING TO TABLE 6.1: 1000 Islands Region 2014 vs 2015• Number of Clients - Number of Clients has increased 5.8% from 2014 from 1 14572 to 15417 in the area covered by the 1000 Islands Region Workforce 2 Development Board. Unassisted R&I Clients and ES Assisted Service Clients 3 have increased 5.8% and 5.9% respectively over last year. They made up 67.1% 4 of the total number of clients in 2015. ES Assisted Service Clients have increased 5 5.9 % from last year and represent 32.9% of the total clients in 2015. 6• Clients by Age Group - Youth Clients between the ages of 15-24 have increased 13% from last year and represent 30.6% of the total clients. This is almost double 7 the percentage of youth in the working age population of approximately 15.6%. 8• Gender - There is basically no change of male and female client proportions 43 from the previous year. Women represent 48.2 % of the total clients and men represent 51.8% of the total clients. This is relatively consistent with their share of the working population at 49.9% and 50.1% respectively.• Designated groups share of total clients increased from 7.6% to 8.7% of total clients. Persons with disabilities continue to represent over 50% of total clients in the designated groups.• Educational attainment at intake remained relatively consistent from the previous year across the various categories with the share of clients with the completionLLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

of secondary school and college have the larger share of client representation at 37.9% and 28.6% respectively. 42.5% of clients at intake had completed post-secondary education or apprenticeship. • The percentage of Internationally Trained Professionals remained unchanged from the previous year at 2.0% of the total number of clients. • Source of Income - Approximately 80% of total clients had some source of income. However, 20% had no source of income. • Length of Time Out of Employment/Training - Compared to last year there was little change in the length of time the clients had out of employment/training. Approximately 50% had less than 3 months out of employment/training. But more than 20% had more than 12 months out of employment/training. • Employment Outcomes at Exit - Over 68% of clients were employed at exit and over 82% were employed or in training at exit. 60% were employed full- time. However, only 10.6% were employed in their area of training or of their employment choice. Only 1.2% were employed in apprenticeship and 0.9% were employed in a professional occupation or trade. • Training/Education at Exit - Significant numbers of clients participated in Second Career Program and EO training initiatives but there was a decline from last year. Significant decline of persons who participated in Federal programs. Low numbers of clients who participated in EO literacy training. Further Interpretation of Data – Table 6.1: Increase in youth numbers is an indication of the intractable high unemployment amongst the age group; also youth accessing YEF were registered through ES – outreach to youth increased because of YEF. Increase of those within designated groups is an indicator of better data capture and service coordination, particularly with OW/ODSP. The increase in those accessing service who have a university education could be another indicator of high youth unemployment even amongst those with a degree, but is more likely a reflection1 of the high educational attainment of our immigrant job seekers.23 Employed Outcomes are an indicator of the drop in quality of employment: more part-time, less4 work in area of training/choice. Educational outcomes are an indicator of the increase in those returning to school in the hopes of improving their employment opportunities with training.65 Note the exception of closed to Second Career, as fewer individuals chose this option. Those returning to school/training are generally not eligible for Second Career.7844 LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board

TABLE #6.2: EMPLOYMENT SERVICE COMPARISONS 1000 Islands Region vs Eastern Ontario Region and Ontario 2015EMPLOYMENT SERVICE 1000 % Eastern % Ontario % Islands Ontario 2015 70.1% 29.9% Region Region 100.0% 2015 2015Number of ClientsUnassisted R&I Clients 10341 67.1% 69152 67.5% 473710ES Assisted Service Clients 5076 32.9% 33356 32.5% 201886Total # of Clients 15417 100.0% 102508 100.0% 675596Clients by Age Group 1555 30.6% 9579 28.7% 52747 26.1%15-2425-44 2154 42.4% 14026 42.0% 91901 45.5%45-6465 and older 1322 26.0% 9460 28.4% 55490 27.5%Total by Age Group 45 0.9% 291 0.9% 1748 0.9% 5076 100.0% 33356 100.0% 201886 100.0%Gender 2445 48.2% 15803 47.4% 99037 49.1%FemaleMale 2626 51.8% 17512 52.5% 102461 50.8%UndisclosedTotal by Gender 0 0.0% 41 0.1% 388 0.2% 5071 100.0% 33356 100.0% 201886 100.0%Designated Groups 200 14.9% 1636 20.7% 17702 31.2%NewcomerVisible Minority 271 20.2% 2689 34.1% 22129 39.0%Person with DisabilityAboriginal Group 681 50.8% 2600 32.9% 10824 19.1%Total by Designated Group 188 14.0% 971 12.3% 6022 10.6% 1340 85.1% 7896 79.3% 56677 68.8%Educational Attainment at Intake 35 0.7% 330 1.0% 2341 1.2% 1Less than Grade 8 2Less than Grade 12 734 14.5% 4542 13.6% 22926 11.4% 3Completion of SecondaryCertificate of Apprenticeship / Journey Person 1922 37.9% 11442 34.3% 62573 31.0% 4Completion of CollegeCompletion of University 71 1.4% 525 1.6% 2720 1.3% 5OtherTotal by Educational Attainment at Intake 1453 28.6% 9465 28.4% 52737 26.1% 6 649 12.8% 5202 15.6% 46801 23.2% 7 8 212 4.2% 1850 5.5% 11788 5.8% 5076 100.0% 33356 100.0% 201886 100.0%Internationally Trained Professionals 315 100.0% 2733 100.0% 32659 100.0%Internationally Trained ProfessionalsTotal by Internationally Trained Prof. 315 100.0% 2733 100.0% 32659 100.0% LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board 45

Source of Income 964 19.0% 6230 18.7% 35596 17.6% Employment Insurance Ontario Works 794 15.6% 5236 15.7% 27196 13.5% Ontario Disability Support Program No Source of Income 194 3.8% 982 2.9% 4443 2.2% Other Total by Source of Income 1055 20.8% 12676 38.0% 88736 44.0% Length of Time Out of Employment/Training 2069 40.8% 8232 24.7% 45915 22.7% Less than 3 months 3-6 months 5076 100.0% 33356 100.0% 201886 100.0% 6-12 months More than 12 months 2503 49.3% 16338 49.0% 94463 46.8% Total by Length of Time Out … 842 16.6% 4988 15.0% 31244 15.5% Outcomes at Exit Employed 671 13.2% 4752 14.2% 28953 14.3% Training/Education Other 1059 20.9% 7271 21.8% 47159 23.4% Total by Outcomes at Exit 5075 100.0% 33349 100.0% 201819 100.0% Employment Outcomes At Exit Employed Full-Time 3471 68.4% 22450 67.3% 136715 67.7% Employed Part-Time Self-Employed 688 13.6% 4467 13.4% 27426 13.6% Both employed and in education Both employed and in training 917 18.1% 6439 19.3% 37744 18.7% Employed Apprentice Employed in area of training/choice 5076 100.0% 33356 100.0% 201885 100.0% Employed in a more suitable job Employed in a prof occ/trade 2067 59.6% 12075 53.8% 76674 56.1% Total by Employment Outcomes at Exit 725 20.9% 4228 18.8% 22913 16.8% Training/Education at Exit OSSD or equivelent 145 4.2% 867 3.9% 4396 3.2% Postsecondary Academic Upgrading 34 1.0% 264 1.2% 1876 1.4% Other Education Second Career 27 0.8% 191 0.9% 1735 1.3% EO training initiatives EO Literacy training 40 1.2% 247 1.1% 1305 1.0% ESL/FSL MCI Bridge Programs 369 10.6% 3440 15.3% 20532 15.0% Federal Other occupational skills training 33 1.0% 762 3.4% 3914 2.9% Total by Training/Education at Exit 31 0.9% 376 1.7% 3370 2.5%1 3471 100.0% 22450 100.0% 136715 100.0%23 85 12.4% 320 7.2% 1467 5.3%45 79 11.5% 653 14.6% 4605 16.8%6 34 4.9% 189 4.2% 1414 5.2%7 39 5.7% 199 4.5% 1434 5.2%8 163 23.7% 1333 29.8% 8312 30.3% 46 115 16.7% 788 17.6% 3856 14.1% 25 3.6% 153 3.4% 584 2.1% 22 3.2% 159 3.6% 1070 3.9% 0 0.0% 29 0.6% 193 0.7% 32 4.7% 208 4.7% 1212 4.4% 94 13.7% 436 9.8% 3279 12.0% 688 100.0% 4467 100.0% 27426 100.0% LLMP October 2015 | 1000 Islands Region Workforce Development Board