Foreign Policy - #203 November-December special double issue 2013

Sponsored Report MEET THE DEAN The vision and strategies of key players in Nuevo León’s vibrant educational sector. We ask how they are building their institutions, and where they are headed. Economic Cooperation and Development Salvador Alva How do you see the role of universities in society? (OECD) noted that the country still has Gómez Higher education institutions play a key role in social development. It’s some way to go in improving education, generally understood that universities invest continuously in an asset that but it gave high marks for efort and prog- Rector, Monterrey Tec System provides an extraordinary return on this investment: our students. For 70 ress. years Monterrey Tec has gone through a process of continuous innovation Innovation to achieve continually greater returns on this investment by satisfying the “Educational achievement is consid- & Leadership educational demands that are created by social, economic, scientific, labor erably below the OECD average, but has and technological changes. been gaining ground in the past decade, FORMER PepsiCo LATIN AMERICA while education quality measures have PRESIDENT PRIZES INNOVATION Can Monterrey Tec help rebuild the identity and well-being of the city been increasing at a moderate pace,” the AND AN INTERNATIONAL whose name it carries? OECD said. “This is particularly impres- OUTLOOK We recently launched an urban citizenship initiative to create synergies sive given that nearly all students from among all members of our community and to promote a city-wide the age of 4 to 14 are now in school.” transformation into a more dynamic, attractive and aspirational place to live. The OECD report referred to the coun- Your university produces many business and civic leaders and decision try as a whole, not specifically the state maker. How do you see this role? of Nuevo León, which has significantly We seek to transform our students into agents of global change. Our better education levels and outcomes. In institution provides a unique educational model that educates students to be 2011, according to the state secretariat for citizens with ethical and human-centered values. It’s an international outlook education, Nuevo León registered 97.8 with a strong entrepreneurial culture. We promote growth through research, percent literacy, for example, against a new educational models and social activities, not just within Monterrey national level of 92.4 percent. Preschool Tec but also with our community and international partners. Our motto is enrollment was 85.3 percent in Nuevo “Education that transforms lives.” León against 80.9 percent nationally. And high school dropout rates were also bet- You were working on UDEM’s 2020 Vision even before you became rector in ter, at 4.4 percent against 6 percent. 2009. What does this involve? The three main pillars of the 2020 Vision are an academic culture of According to the OECD, Mexico needs excellence, service-oriented holistic education and sustainable educational continued efort in reforming teaching infrastructure. We are aware that there is a valuable education offer in the and school leadership, system funding, region, but our DNA is different and that’s what distinguishes us. We began and curricula, as well as evaluation and designing an integral system. It is already working, and we have made great assessment strategies, but the organiza- progress. tion welcomed new legislation from the federal government. “The law passed in Antonio José UDEM is a privately funded university, but you place great stress on January of [2013] is an important step, Dieck Assad relations with the community. Why is that? and should make the system for hiring, The university is not an island in the community. I usually tell colleagues evaluating and promoting teachers more Rector, Universidad de Monterrey that this is an organization from, for and [directed] to the community. We professional, as it dispenses with the dis- come from the community. We may be a private college, but our resources cretionary criteria that have sometimes High-tech are public, because they come from the public. We’re not called a public allowed teaching positions to be bought driver university because we don’t have government resources, but we are grateful or inherited.” for the trust of parents and organizations that work with us and give us their PhD INDUSTRIAL ENGINEER resources, as contributors and benefactors that help us do large projects. SEES COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT AS PART OF THE PATH TO And your vision, for your students? EXCELLENCE We care about what we do with students so they become valuable members of society—technical trainers, engineers, lawyers, accountants, financiers, doctors and the like. We want to go from “made in Mexico” to “designed in Mexico.” MONTERREY 9

Sponsored Report Monterrey: International City of Knowledge Government, universities and business working together: the “triple helix” in action. Jaime Parada Director of PIIT DREAMING BIG R&D INVESTMENT IS NO ACCIDENT; IT’S A KEY PART OF THE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY “The culture of the significance of research, innovation and postgraduate courses is already present in the lives and minds of businessmen.” Many states and cities try to promote innovation, A decade ago, Monterrey’s city fa- are around US$400 million, mainly from but with mixed results. Why has Nuevo León been so thers took a visionary step. No private companies and universities. Cur- successful? longer could the city rely only on rent and future areas of interest include The first step was passing a law to encourage knowledge its traditional strength in manufacturing, IT, nano-materials, biotechnology and re- and technology innovation. In 2005 we created the despite the boost from the North Ameri- newable energy. Institute of Innovation and Technology Transference, ca Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that a public body responsible for science, technology and opened up the U.S. and Canadian markets. Leading local universities now rub innovation programs and policies. And the institute has With uncommon perspicacity, they saw shoulders with the University of Texas a 25-year program, which is not usual in countries like the growing threat from cheap Asian labor at Austin, which opened a branch of its Mexico with six-year planning horizons, like government and decided that Monterrey had to evolve Center for Global Innovation and En- terms. We also realized that university students need from an industrial to a knowledge-based trepreneurship at PIIT. Government re- places to work, otherwise the only destination for our economy. search labs are also present, but perhaps young people will be Canada, the U.S. or Europe. the most interesting facet of PIIT is the Today, that vision—expressed as the growing presence of private companies— What was the solution? Monterrey International City of Knowl- mainly Mexican, but also foreigners, in- With complete intellectual honesty, we recognized that edge Program—represents a key difer- cluding Motorola, PepsiCo and Schneider Nuevo León needed research centers, and we facilitated ential for attracting investment, at the Electric, a German specialist in energy the conditions to carry this out. We currently have 85 same time that the country is opening up management. There’s also an incubator research centers in the state; there are 50 in university its telecommunications sector to greater for software start-ups. Over one thousand campuses and 33 in the PIIT, the Research & Innovation competition and foreign investment. people are involved in research, including Technology Park. support staf. In Monterrey, the Research & Inno- And now other places are copying you. vation Technology Park (PIIT) has 33 “They’re working together, discover- I am glad that I dream about developing big, ambitious company and university research cen- ing the future, transforming ideas into projects that generate national pride, because Mexico ters, with more planned. Investments products and new businesses and helping needs that. Mexicans are always looking for icons of success; too often there is a feeling of defeat. It makes me extremely happy that other states are copying what we are doing here because it means they believe it is a good practice to follow. Yucatán is constructing a 500-hectare park, Chihuahua will build two parks, and two are planned in Hermosillo. 10 MONTERREY

Numbers tell the tale: Nuevo León has more than 1,300 companies with ISO-9000 and ISO-14001 Sponsored Report certification. It also registers more patents than any other Mexican state. Spotlight In 2007, the IDB’s Korean Technology Fund was so impressed with Monterrey’s quest to become a knowledge-based city that it granted money to help plan the 2008–2015 phase. Nuevo León businessmen incorporate in- monopolies. Analysts said changes should TOMÁS MILMO SANTOS novation into their culture as a lifestyle,” allow foreign ownership of up to 100 per- CEO, Axtel said Jaime Parada Ávila, the director of cent in much of the telecoms sector and Axtel was the first landline competitor in Monterrey PIIT, who holds a Ph.D. in engineering up to 49 percent in broadcasting; faster for Mexico’s giant Telmex. “From 1994 until 1999, from Shefeld University in England and transition to digital TV; permission for we fine-tuned our business plan, attracting private was director general of Mexico’s National concessionaires to ofer various services; investors and technology partners,” said founder Science and Technology Council. Invest- asymmetric regulation to reduce market Tomás Milmo Santos, a graduate of Stanford ment comes from a variety of sources and dominance; and a second national fiber- University in business economics. “But primarily, we includes venture capital to help transform optics backbone. Run by an independent waited for authorities to launch spectrum auctions ideas into marketable realities. public-private partnership, it will enforce and grant respective local services concessions. We equal access. “This is very interesting,” quickly realized it wasn’t going to be a level playing Many new and established high-tech Milmo Santos said of the new backbone. field for new entrants.” companies in Mexico are set to receive a “It will enable us to compete.” Today Axtel still awaits the expected creation of boost with a landmark constitutional re- a fully open and competitive telecoms market, form of the telecommunications section, The Monterrey International City of but more than US$3 billion of investments have signed this June by President Enrique Knowledge program is overseen by the made it the country’s second-largest fixed-line and Peña Nieto. Detailed enabling legislation Nuevo León Institute of Innovation and long-distance operator, with 12,200 km of fiber-optic is due in six months. Monterrey-based Ax- Technology Transfer—I²T²—which orga- cabling and what it describes as Mexico’s most tel has been campaigning for years to cre- nizes sectorial clusters to promote eco- advanced broadband service. ate a level playing field, with CEO Tomás nomic development (see page 13). There’s Milmo Santos fighting in Mexico’s su- also cooperation with universities or BLANCA TREVIÑO DE VEGA preme court against discriminatory pric- agencies in the United States, Germany, CEO, SOFTEK ing policies by the market leader. This and Spain and South Korea, plus multilateral Hailed by Fortune magazine in October 2007 as one similar court cases helped topple the old institutions including the InterAmerican of four “rising stars” and by Forbes magazine this Development Bank. year as “the face of Mexico’s principal technology industry,” the cofounder of Softek has been its CEO Universities are enthusiastic. “We have and president since 2000. “We were just kids and we an engineering research center at PIIT; we could dream,” Treviño said, recalling the company’s are creating a nanotoxicology center and 1982 origins. “Some friends and I wanted to have we plan to create a data center,” said Jesús a global company, to serve major corporations at Áncer, rector of Universidad Autónoma. the top of the pyramid. So Softek was born with “This has given us the chance to relate this vision and the idea of providing value for these to companies and to create an important clients—to improve their competitiveness.” synergy. It’s a place where my graduates Today the company has 30 offices around the world, have job opportunities and where profes- with 10 Global Delivery Centers in the U.S., Mexico, sional practice and development occur.” China, Brazil, Argentina, Spain and India, and it describes itself as “the creator and a leader of the For Universidad de Monterrey, the nearshore industry.” technology park ofered the chance to cre- ate an innovative research center called MONTERREY 11 Abre, dedicated to improving packaging. “We concluded that there was a large mar- ket with great needs in this area, because almost all manufacturing companies in the region have to subcontract or less usu- ally develop their own packaging materi- als and products,” explained Rector An- tonio José Dieck Assad. Abre can handle all that, with innovation and greater ef- ciency.

Sponsored Report YOUNG ENTREPRENEURS WILL BOOST THE LEGACY Monterrey’s new generation Often, family companies find they need to bring in outside professional management of business leaders blend once the founders retire, because succeeding generations lack the interest or com- strong family tradition and petence to carry on. Not so in Nuevo León, where many companies remain in family work ethic with cutting- hands while professionalizing their management thanks to the strong business- edge skills acquired at top -oriented tradition of local families and universities. And as new generations of high- universities. ly trained entrepreneurs come along, so new companies are being formed—not least in the financial sector, where there is always room for new players with a new vision. It helps make Monterrey the center of Mexico’s most dynamic business region. ALBERTO SANTOS BOESCH MANUEL RIVERO ZAMBRANO ERNESTO LÓPEZ CLARIOND INGENIOS SANTOS COO, BANREGIO CEO BANCREA Ingenios Santos is a third-generation family Banregio is a fast-growing, mid-sized bank that’s Bancrea is a new bank, formed by a group of 10 business with roots in a home-bake business. “My turning in an excellent performance since going Nuevo León investors, including various traditional grandfather started selling cookies to his neighbors public around the middle of 2011. local families. It received federal authorization to before he came to Monterrey and set up Gamesa,” “We’re not interested in market share; we’re start operations in July 2013, with initial capital of said Santos Boesch, who is now building on the interested in quality and being profitable,” 480 million pesos—roughly US$37 million. The goal family tradition. said Rivero Zambrano, a graduate in financial is to grow from an initial three branches to 12 within Gamesa became a major player under his father, administration from Monterrey Tec and one of five years, focusing on the greater Monterrey region. Alberto Santos de Hoyos, who then sold most of it to the masterminds behind the repositioning of the López Clariond, one of the key partners in the PepsiCo in 1990 in a landmark deal between a local 18-year-old bank, Monterrey’s third largest. Certainly, new venture, is pushing an innovative business company and a global giant. But Santos de Hoyos the market approves. By the end of October 2013 the model that focuses on serving small and medium held onto and expanded the family’s sugar interests. stock price had more than doubled on the Mexican businesses rather than the major companies so “My father always had this thing for industry, and he exchange, measured in pesos. beloved of larger, more traditional institutions. It’s a bought sugar mills to supply the cookie production. “As a banker, you have to be humble and understand customer-oriented, local-vision approach, but with When he sold Gamesa, he kept the mills. We bought the challenges that you, your employees and your cutting-edge technology and robust, conservative more in 1996 and today have five, in San Luis Potosí, community are facing,” Rivero Zambrano said. “The financial management. Veracruz, Jalisco and Michoacán. monetary policy of previous governments protected “We want to return to the concept of personal Now Santos Boesch sees a 21st-century future in economic stability… but in the last 12 years, the customer service,” López Clariond said. “It’s still alternative energy, if and when Mexican legislation government has been unable to do the structural very difficult to obtain credit in Mexico. We have permits. He recently visited Brazil, the world leader reforms we need for sustainable growth. Some many international players and they have different in sugarcane-based bioethanol, to see the latest economists think that if these reforms are done operational rules, because that’s how they do things technologies in action: “Sugar is the basis of many correctly, we could be looking at annual GDP growth in their head offices. We want to begin by making things that are central to sustainability, like energy of 5 percent or more. I know the government is decisions locally, in the place where we see the co-generation, ethanol and medicines.” working hard at this, but the political cost is going to financial need.” be significant.” 12 MONTERREY

Sponsored Report CLUSTARIZATION: THE ENGINE OF FUTURE GROWTH Academia, private companies and government are cooperating to strengthen, expand and promote the state’s strategic sectors. T he idea of promoting selected in- a nanotechnology business incubator Hugo Lara dustries in the form of clusters is within the PIIT technology park. Clus- not unique to Nuevo León, but few ter members include cement giant Ce- President, Nuevo León cities or regions around the world have mex, U.S. multinationals Owens Corning Clusters Council given it more thought and efort. The state and Whirlpool, and the U.S. universities now has nine clusters—automotive and of Texas (at Austin) and Arizona State, What exactly is the Clusters Council? auto parts, nanotechnology, aerospace alongside local leaders Monterrey Tec and How does it work? industry, agrifoods, information technol- UANL. It was created last year [2012] by the state governor ogy, sustainable housing and renewable as a consulting council. It’s a consultative body that energy, specialized medical services, bio- The specialized medical services clus- forms the link between the nine clusters and the technology and electrical appliances— ter reflects a perception that Monterrey, state’s long-term economic development plan. with a central coordinating council. This so close to the U.S. border, has great poten- selection reflects the understanding of lo- tial for supplying certified services, includ- So is it a lobby? cal business and government leaders and ing high-complexity surgery to American Not at all. It’s an association aimed at having more university researchers about the areas patients. Cluster members include leading competitive companies in the sector. We are trying where Nuevo León can best compete and local hospitals and universities. And the to develop a strategic plan to align all clusters in that create well-paid jobs. Each cluster brings biotechnology cluster brings together gi- direction. together companies, public and private ants such as Novartis and Merck Sharp & research bodies and universities. Dohme with local hospitals and universi- Is there a risk of reducing competition? ties to support the production and applica- No, we work with a “cooperate to compete” The nanotechnology cluster, for ex- tion of scientific and technical knowledge, philosophy, but there are companies that do not join ample, was formed in 2008 with the goal and the transfer and sale of technology, to us. We have had companies competing directly with of developing professional staf with ap- create innovative products, processes and clients, and we have said that if you do not want to propriate skills and knowledge, attracting services, and in particular to create new share your best practices, or visit plants, that’s all financing and implementing new nano- companies and promote economic devel- right. It doesn’t mean you cannot share anything. At technology business projects—there’s opment in the region. the end of the day, we are all interested in sharing things such as best HR practices and energy-saving ideas. Fernando Turner Davila Federico Toussaint CEO, Katcon CEO, Lamosa Member: Automotive cluster Member: Housing Cluster “My personal opinion is that by eliminating private monopolies, making state monopolies “I think Lamosa’s challenge will be globalization. I have been working here for 20 years. function as private companies, focusing on industry and having a competitive exchange rate, When I started, the company was selling US$60 million; now we sell more than US$800 Mexico could quickly achieve an annual growth rate in excess of 7 percent, and it could do that million. My dream is to have an active participation from Argentina to Canada. We already without major reforms. If China has been growing at more than 10 percent a year for 30 years, I export [to the Americas], but I believe there are big opportunities. don’t see any reason why Mexico can’t achieve 7 percent. There is no concrete reason why not. “We’ve been working on long-term sustainability in the business model. It necessarily We need to invest heavily in highways and telecommunications; that’s part of achieving that has several fronts, not only economic development. You have to look at environmental growth rate. questions and find ways of generating more value. Social development is also important. “Monterrey is easily one of the best places in the world to do business; our culture is completely “For ceramics, one of the most important supplies is gas, and the North American region pro-business. Workers have a lot of respect for their companies; my employees love their has the cheapest gas in the world. As we compete in ceramics with Europe or China, having company. It’s not like other countries where they’re bored and just doing their job to get paid. a competitive advantage in energy [is important]. Proximity is the second significant Salaries have been growing in recent years, but even so the productivity is just amazing.” advantage, and also knowing the behavior of the market.” MONTERREY 13

Sponsored Report Point of view Mauricio Making things better Doehner Monterrey’s traditional manufacturing strength is being VP, Corporate Affairs, reinvented with copious R&D, savvy marketing, and CEMEX attention to sustainability. What’s special about Monterrey There’s a consensus among the like an elastic band: you bounce back into as an industrial and knowledge hub? Nuevo León business community your lane instead of going to the other side There are several factors. First, there are great that their state, and particularly or jumping over. We developed the tech- universities, and they develop entrepreneurship, its capital city of Monterrey, have some- nology and took it to other countries.” influencing people to take the risk of starting a thing special. A mixture of work ethic, a new business. So, unlike other places, many new tough climate that punishes sloth, prox- The second-largest producer of steel companies are created every year. Monterrey has imity to the world’s biggest market and wire mesh in the world, Deacero now has been the cradle for key industries in the development some standout universities have com- 15 production units in Mexico and exports of Mexico—cement, steel, beer, petrochemicals, flour bined to give local manufacturing compa- to 20 countries. Its 14 distribution depots and even telecommunications were created here. So nies enviable strength. And although the include Indianapolis (U.S.). Not bad for a there’s a culture of business relations and hard work. talk these days is all about transformation company founded in 1952 by the father of Things have never been easy for Monterrey, even the to a knowledge-based economy, the state’s the current CEO and a prime example of weather. There are other places in the country and bedrock competence still lies in making how many Monterrey firms have grown to the world where you stretch out your hand and grab things. The diference is that, going for- conquer foreign markets without losing a mango, so it’s not that difficult to move forward. In ward, Monterrey plans on making them their family roots. our case, we have always had to walk an extra mile, even better. take an extra step. The strategic location of Monterrey Cydsa is another. Founded in 1945 in a is also very important. The fact that we are close “We manufacture many products for farmhouse on the outskirts of Monterrey to the U.S. undoubtedly helps; it’s easier to attract infrastructure, and especially for high- to produce rayon fiber for the textile in- investment. We have become a kind of international ways,” said Raúl Gutierrez Muguerza, dustry, Cydsa today has factories in seven hub for investment. joint CEO of Deacero, a major producer locations throughout Mexico and exports of wire products for the construction, do- to more than 20 countries. Jorge Garza Montemayor mestic, industrial and agricultural mar- CEO Prolamsa kets. The company, Gutierrez explained, “For a long time now, Nuevo León “We refer to luck as work” developed technology for a cable-based has taken pride in training and ofering Family firms with a strong work ethic are a founda- highway guardrail, to substitute for rigid a wealth of personnel, from laborers to tion of modern Monterrey and Prolamsa—Productos sheet-metal ones: “This is very interest- executives, who meet the highest stan- Laminados Monterrey, SA—is a prime example. ing; it has many advantages because it’s dards of education and training,” said Founded in 1954 by Juan Montemayor Martìnez, a Tomás González Sada, Cydsa president local metalworker, and his son Mario, the company and CEO. This has given the state an ex- began by making metal door and window parts, chicken coops, bathtubs, pails and the like. One day, the story goes, a friend commented on the son’s luck at having a successful business. “In my son’s home,” the mother replied, “we refer to luck as work, because he is up by six a.m. and finishes at midnight.” Prolamsa is still a family firm, now run by CEO Jorge Garza Montemayor, but it has far outgrown the chicken coop era. Today it sells a wide variety of carbon steel tubing products through Mexico and North America. Located in Escobedo, in the north of Monterrey, the company offers as-welded Mechanical tubing, high-strength welded structural steel tubes so as a wide range of structural shapes. 14 MONTERREY

Sponsored Report Point of view ceptionally diverse manufacturing sector. for materials at a fixed, inflation-proof Juan Garza Recent growth has moved in the direction price, plus free technical advice. Often Herrera of greater added value, often adding a ser- they’re women, squirreling away a bit of CEO vice element to an existing manufacturing the family budget—or preventing it dis- XIGNUX base, González Sada explained, and the appearing on other matters—to improve “A culture of hard work” trend is likely to continue. their home. Nuevo León has a very strong industrial sector and a culture of hard work, although it’s true that the This fertile mixture of work ethic, re- “We believed there was a niche oppor- culture is changing, like the country itself. We have spect for technology and easy access to a tunity, and it’s being applied in Mexico, employees at Xignux who have been working with major foreign market has made Monter- South America and the Caribbean,” Doeh- us for the last 45 years, but I don’t believe that rey a surprisingly efcient springboard ner said. It’s grass-roots marketing know- new generations will want to stay so long in the for internationalization. Founded in 1906 how by a company that, at the other end of same company. We should teach young people to CEMEX is today one of the largest build- the spectrum, is a member of Monterrey’s deal with globalization, with mobility. The modus ing material producers in the world, and is nanotechnology cluster. operandi is different. Nuevo León has a very strong the biggest in the Americas—performance industrial sector and attracts foreign direct invest- that is even more impressive given that Xignux is also investing in innovation, ment for several reasons—because it is close to the Mexico is not among the world’s top 10 particular in cables and transformers. U.S., and also for the quality of its universities. The cement producers. Just 23 percent of CE- “We used to need a type of oil that was labor force is limited only by the fact that most of MEX’s US$15 billion in sales in 2012 came very harmful to the environment; today the population already has the skills to be working; from its home market, with the U.S. and we use organic oil,” said CEO Juan Garza we are not talking about an unskilled popula- northern European markets contributing Herrera. “And our products used to be tion. Today Xignux is one of the most competitive 21 percent and 28 percent, respectively. larger; now they’re smaller, quieter and companies in Mexico; everything we produce is a more attractive. Cables will continue be- world-class product. We look to every detail in the “CEMEX is a global key player in its ing made of copper, but for everything value chain in order to satisfy the client and obtain three main areas—cement, concrete and that’s around the cable, even the packag- greater rates of return. aggregates—but it’s also a local business, ing, we can always innovate.” so integrated solutions for clients are de- Eduardo Coronado veloped locally, and then we extrapolate Lamosa, one of the world’s largest pro- Co-CEO Coflex what can be applied to similar markets,” ducers of ceramic tiles, ceramic adhesives “Innovation: The new Monterrey way” explained Corporate Afairs VP Mauricio and sanitary ware, has pushed sustainabil- Monterrey is a city to do great business, and we Doehner. One example is “Patrimonio ity. It’s the first Mexican ceramics produc- see that many international companies are doing Hoy,” a program created in Mexico for the er to receive Green Square Certification just that. Manufacturing is strong with American, informal urban construction sector where from the Tile Council of North America Japanese and other foreign corporations operating many potential small customers lack ac- (TCNA), recognition that the group’s pro- large factories here. Americans might not be cess to credit. They save a small weekly duction processes comply with a series of aware of it, but most of their bathroom sanitary amount with CEMEX, then exchange it sustainability requirements for raw mate- ware is made in Nuevo León. There are many suc- rials extraction and use. cess stories of local companies as global leaders in their industries; I believe this is partly due to our skilled labor force, which supplies us with talent— from assembly workers to top-level managers. Monterrey is ready for the next era and is focusing on innovation. We have the PIIT, a new science and technology park with 30 research centers, funded by the government, universities and private companies. In our case, Coflex has seven patents granted in the USA and more in other countries; we are committed to offer innovative products for the plumbing industry. MONTERREY 15

Sponsored Report SPOTLIGHT Julio Villareal Mining, iron and steel: Chairman and CEO, wealth today Villacero “The global economic crisis brought great challenges; the public and private sectors must to work together.” Villacero is a 100% Mexican private company headquartered in Monterrey. Mexico’s leading steel distributor, it offers world-class products and services through its steel and financial businesses with a solid nationwide presence of strategically located facilities. Villacero is also an important player in NAFTA and global markets through processing, marketing, distribution and international trading operations, with presence in more than 20 countries. It recently acquired the Hamburg-based C&F International— previously Coutinho & Ferrostaal. José Antonio Monterrey is today best known reforms in Mexico could hurt the mining Rivero Larrea for its high-end manufacturing and processing sector. Lawmakers have CEO, Minera Autlán S.A. prowess, but iron and steel were spoken of royalties as high as 7.5 percent of historically the foundation of gross earnings; companies say this would “Mexico has been a mining country since the very start; it economic wealth, and many inhibit expansion. “Some US$30 billion of is rich and powerful in minerals. We have a strong mining companies have built on that investment is planned for the sector in the culture that dates from before the Spaniards conquered tradition. coming years, so let’s hope the government us. Mexico is the main silver producer in the world. is thinking about that before approving Canadian mining companies have special fiscal incentives, Mining in Nuevo León dates back to the the reform,” Rivero said. so they have invested a lot here and they have enjoyed 17th century, with the discovery of lead and great success. zinc. Currently, the Mexican Geological Mining is Mexico’s fourth-largest con- Our manganese ore mines are the most important in North Service said, mining in the state is limited tributor to GDP, behind vehicles, electron- and Central America. The use of manganese is basically to nonmetallics such as gypsum, barite and ics and petroleum. for the production of steel; we deliver it to the Mexican limestone. But the strong traditions creat- and North American steel industries. We are like pepper to ed when the state industrialized in the late Capital costs tend to weigh heavily, salad; we grow side by side with the steel industry.” 19th century live on, and many companies inhibiting investment and leading to the are still active in the iron and steel sector. export of raw materials. The government Raúl Gutierrez says that other parts of the planned fiscal Muguerza Minera Autlán, a publicly traded con- reform will lower costs. With easier access Co-CEO, Deacero glomerate headquartered at Garza Garcia to financing, more investments could be in Monterrey, has three mines and three made in processing, adding greater value “Deacero develops wire and steel products. The steel we ferroalloy processing operations spread to the mining sector within Mexico. make is used for construction, agriculture and industry. throughout central and eastern Mexico, We have grown especially in the car sector, for which we although none is in Nuevo León. As one of Mexico’s largest steel dis- produce many specialties, for example airbags. These are tributors, Villacero is also looking to the made of wire; the bag has a powder device and the plastic “We turn our manganese into ferroal- promised reforms to pave the way for has wire threaded around to keep it compressed. When it loys; this is then used to make steel,” said long-term sustainable growth. “Everyone explodes, the wire is destroyed, and the bag comes out. We José Antonio Rivero Larrea, the company knows that small and medium companies produce wire for spark plugs, seat parts, and steering wheel chairman. “It’s a process that requires a are the main job generators around the reinforcements that have wire inside so they don’t break. lot of energy; that’s why we have a sister world,” said Julio Villareal, chairman and Mexico’s challenge is to increase national content, which in energy company where we generate a sig- CEO. “At Afirme Bank, the financial arm the car industry is under 30 percent.” nificant amount of the energy we use, and of Villacero, we work to support small and we do it in an efcient, sustainable and medium businesses by creating new prod- green way.” ucts and services, adapting our business to their needs. We seek to capitalize their Rivero cautioned that planned fiscal businesses and help them to grow in finan- cially sustainable way.” 16 MONTERREY

Sponsored Report SPOTLIGHT Investors’ infrastructure Sergio Argüelles, Nuevo León plans more than US$1 billion for infrastructure CEO Finsa upgrading, with ample opportunities for foreign investment. “Sustainability is very important to Finsa. As a major developer of industrial parks, we have wanted to develop something different, something well planned. So there are well-established green areas, recreational areas and wide avenues. We have already developed 16 industrial parks and built approximately 7 million square meters in Mexico. For 20 years, the automotive sector has been the engine of Mexican industrialization. Some 50 percent of our activity is automotive, but we are diversified; we have worked with several aerospace companies, and we continue doing so, especially European ones that have come in.” Monterrey and Nuevo León already of- to bring five cubic meters of water per Jose Maria fer excellent infrastructure, with good second from the Tampaón river in San Garza Treviño, highway and rail connections to the U.S. Luis Potosi State. Six pumping plants CEO Grupo GP market and impressive urban develop- will overcome a 265-meter height dif- ment. Now investments of up to US$2 ference along the 378-km system. The “Public-private partnerships (PPP) or projects for provision billion will provide a new Metro (sub- Monterrey Water and Drainage Service, of service (PPS) that started in England many years ago way) line, highway upgrades, improved which is leading the project, said that are coming to Mexico, and can be important. Just imagine health facilities and a major expansion of “the aqueduct, pumping plants and wa- if everyone had to pay for their house in cash; 80 percent the water supply, with significant oppor- ter treatment plant may be built accord- of people would have no home. Governments are like that; tunities for Mexican and international ing to the DBOT [design, build, operate they want to do everything in cash. The PPS law means companies. and transfer] scheme, with a 25-year you can build the infrastructure you need and pay it in 25 concession for operation.” It projected years. Concessions have existed in Spain for years, and Work has started on the long-awaited an internal rate of return of 16.9 percent. they work. It is beginning here with roads, and we need it US$440 million Line 3 of the Monterrey to be implemented at the level of urban infrastructure by Metro. This will add 7.5 km of new track Jose María Garza Treviño, CEO of cities, states and the federal government.” and eight stations to the existing 32-km Grupo GP, a major constructor and de- system, which dates from 1991. Other veloper, said it was essential for greater Hector Martinez, projects include regional hospitals in Sa- Monterrey to invest in upgrading its Kalos linas Victoria and Montemorelos. water supply: “All the supply sources of Monterrey come from dams; these “We created Kalos to satisfy the growing demand for Infrastructure projects spell oppor- are filled by rainwater, but we have had offices and industrial and commercial buildings from tunities for a range of companies. Tuba- droughts for two years. Dams are at 25 national and international firms that choose northeastern cero, for example, is boosting capacity to percent of their capacity, and if it does Mexico. We specialize in industrial parks, and our park 850,000 tonnes a year and will build the not rain or a hurricane come in a year or at Apodaca in greater Monterrey is particularly suited first 118-km phase of the Los Ramones two, we will be in trouble.” to high-tech companies—it’s very close to the PIIT 900-km gas pipeline. technology park. Monterrey generally has a good level of Without denying the need for new infrastructure and offers the manpower that companies In all, Nuevo León was due to receive investment, Hector Martinez of Kalos need, but we aim to go further—for example, in 2010 we federal, state and municipal invest- said that “infrastructure in Monterrey decided to invest US$1.5 million to install a natural gas ments totaling 15 billion pesos—just over is ready for any kind of challenge,” while backup power generator to give clients a greater degree US$1.1 billion—through 2013, said State Sergio Argüelles of Finsa said business- of reliability.” Public Works Secretary Luis Gerardo men were still committed to Nuevo León Marroquín earlier in the year. That was and its capital: “Anyone who bets on MONTERREY 17 without counting the planned Monter- Monterrey will win.” rey VI aqueduct, a US$1.1 billion project

Sponsored Report SPOTLIGHT Arturo Garza 21st-century Logistics CEO, Akzent Logistics Major new dryport and tax-free manufacturing zone Monterrey offers significant potential as a fast- is Monterrey’s trump card to succeed in the globalized growing industrial market and logistics hub, because economy. this is where most rail lines and highways converge leading to and from Mexico’s largest commercial A quick glance at the map shows new Interpuerto project comes in. partner, the United States. Nevertheless, when why Monterrey has such poten- Interpuerto—literally, Interport—is taking into account current infrastructure and growth tial as a logistics hub. It’s where potential, Monterrey has failed to take full advantage the country’s two major rail systems, Fer- the brainchild of a group of Nuevo León of this potential as it relates to the important logistics romex and Kansas City Southern (KCS), businessmen, with government backing. role it plays for the country. Interpuerto, which should converge and interlink. Heading north, Located just north of Monterrey, it will have been started years ago, will help companies KCS feeds directly into the U.S. network provide warehousing; specialized termi- capitalize on burgeoning trade volumes through an with easy access to Houston and the Gulf nals for grains, automobiles, steel prod- ever-improving supply chain infrastructure to make Coast, then onward to Chicago and the ucts, and petrochemicals; and an industri- Monterrey an increasingly attractive target for cross- Eastern Seaboard. Northwest out of Mon- al park with an associated free-trade zone border industrial opportunities. World-class supply terrey, the Ferromex track carries freight where companies can import, repackage, chain infrastructure will help Monterrey grow as a through El Paso to Los Angeles. And by manufacture and store in a tax-free en- regional and national leader. road it’s just a couple of hours via Nuevo vironment. There will also be facilities Laredo to the U.S. I-35 leading directly to to pre-clear—for both customs and secu- José Manuel Contreras Lomeli Houston. rity—goods destined for the U.S. market, saving time at the border. CEO, Grupo Senda The same road and rail networks ofer Our bus fleet serves 12 states in Mexico and 10 in the access to major Mexican ports: Lazaro “We’re bringing Mexico’s northern United States—we go as far as Chicago. As for Mexico, Cardenas and Manzanillo on the Pacific border right into the Interpuerto,” said significant investments have been made in the last coast, and Altamira and Veracruz on the Silvano Solís, director of the project. “And six years, mainly on highways between medium and Gulf of Mexico. And, of course, due south there are some very attractive tax exemp- large cities. Investments should continue regionally, is greater Mexico City, the largest conur- tions.” because smaller roads also need improvement. bation in the Americas, with a population With more than 80 years of experience, we are of 20 million. The 1,350-hectare site has already se- the leader in ground transportation services for cured various company commitments passengers and personnel in the northeast of México Monterrey’s privileged situation at the and organizers speak of US$2 billion in giving service to over 80 million passengers per year. heart of this road-and-rail web is a con- total investments, leading to the creation We have invested over two million dollars in the sequence of Nuevo León’s importance as of perhaps 50,000 jobs when counting di- last two years in logistic systems to reduce empty a manufacturing region throughout the rect and indirect employment. kilometers, downtimes and improve our role structure, 20th century. But in the 21st, even such a for the federal transportation business and even more strategic location must be leveraged with “Unfortunately, Mexico has outdated for the personal transportation business. overall logistical efciency to really com- logistics that have been neglected for In addition we have Invested close to 500 million pesos pete in global terms. And that’s where the years,” said Solís. “What we bring to the in 2013 to increase and re-new our fleet and terminals. table is a node that will connect Mexico with the world.” 18 MONTERREY

U.S. chains operating in Mexico Households earning of at least $$ Sponsored Report include Costco, Victoria’s Secret, US$50,000 per year should double to Starbucks and Wendy’s 21 percent by 2017 In smaller cities and towns, less than 50 percent of grocery purchases are in supermarkets Modern, dominated by traditional outlets. Based in 1 SORIANA efcient Monterrey, Soriana is now present in 208 retailing is cities, with five distinct store formats. RICARDO MARTÍN BRINGAS, CEO OF A PUBLICLY TRADED tipped to grow 606-STORE SUPERMARKET CHAIN “The retail sector in Mexico is still char- Expanding middle-class acterized by the presence of the informal “Purchasing, inventories and process optimization incomes and reducing sector, but this represents a great opportu- constitute a key area for our company’s efforts to informality will drive further nity for formal operators to continue grow- operate with the latest technology, because it permits growth in the retail sector, with ing at an aggressive pace in hundreds of better use of our human and material resources. richer-than-average states like locations that have not yet benefited from It’s worth mentioning that Soriana’s transformation Nuevo León set to benefit. businesses like ours,” said Soriana CEO Ri- program, which is only two years old, started with cardo Martín Bringas. Planned economic a strategic rethink of the way we operate, looking Similar to other large emerging econ- reforms should help speed up the process, to optimize all the administrative, commercial, omies, Mexico has seen exception- he added. operational and logistics processes. This cultural ally strong growth of middle-class transformation was combined with implementing consumption. That’s even more the case Convenience retailing is gaining space the integration of information systems, allowing us in Nuevo León, where GDP per capita is al- against traditional formats. Iconn’s very to have the necessary elements to make immediate most double the national average. successful 7-Eleven brand has been lever- decisions every day. We used world-class consultants aged with a chain of 24-hour gas stations to facilitate the implementation of the Enterprise A study by Business Monitor Interna- called “Petro-7.” Resource Planning (ERP) and SAP.” tional predicts that retail sales in Mexico will rise from US$203 billion in 2012 to Mexican shopping habits and prefer- 2 ICONN US$255 billion by 2016, representing ences are evolving as wealth spreads down- growth of almost 5.9 percent a year. Super- ward. More women are in the workforce, LUIS A. CHAPA, CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD AND CEO OF ICONN & markets, hypermarkets and convenience prompting a move to increased retail open- 7ELEVEN, TRACES COMPANY ROOTS BACK ALMOST A CENTURY stores could see their sales increase even ing hours and the growth of convenience faster as modern chains like sector leader stores. Rising disposable income means “Iconn is a 100 percent Mexican company, founded Wal-Mart de México and Soriana, the larg- above-average growth of spending on lux- 90 years ago in Monterrey. Today it operates in 17 of est nationally owned player, continue to ex- ury items, designer clothing and the latest the 32 states in the country, with 15,500 employees. pand beyond the larger cities into areas still technology gadgets. We specialize in wholesale groceries, convenience stores—including 7-Eleven—logistics and gasoline E-commerce is also gaining traction, stations. From the very beginning, our company’s with the market currently worth US$6.5 philosophy has been based on customer service, billion, according to Interbrand, a consul- innovation, teamwork and passion for outcome. An tancy, but analysts point to popular con- important characteristic of Iconn has been to be a cerns about credit-card fraud, low Internet leader in adopting the best corporate governance penetration and inefcient or expensive practice. This has allowed us to participate effectively delivery systems as factors that are retard- [in the market] to achieve our goals, identify how ing its growth. best to manage risks, use resources carefully and maintain a strong position in the market.” GRUMA: TORTILLAS FOR THE WORLD Gruma is the world’s largest producer of corn flour and tortillas, with more than 20,000 employees and 100 plants around the world, selling in more than 100 countries. Founded in 1949 as Molinos Azteca—literally, Aztec Mills—the company is now traded on the Mexican and New York stock exchanges, with 2012 net sales of 64 billion pesos—the equivalent of just under US$5 billion at current exchange rates. “We feel a great responsibility as a Mexican company that, through its products, shares the flavors and traditions of our country with the world,” said CEO Juan Antonio Gonzalez Moreno. “This responsibility has led us to continuously improve the quality of our products and to promote Mexican culture through our marketing campaigns and collaboration with Mexican embassies around the world, thereby also seeking to strengthen cultural roots among Mexicans. We face two challenges. The first is to consolidate the markets that we have entered and where we have competitive advantages. The other is to increase our global presence by profitably getting into new market segments and continuing to innovate and develop products.” MONTERREY 19

Sponsored Report FINANCING GROWTH A robust financial sector, strengthened by years of turmoil, is set to grow as the economy expands. Mexico’s financial system today enjoys countries, and Mexico has a privileged sold in the country is around 3 percent of the resilience that can only be gained situation.” He also cited the agreement GDP, which is less than a quarter of the through a decades-long rollercoaster by the government and opposition par- OECD average.” ride. Things went from boom to bust in ties to push through major reforms, the the seventies and eighties, followed by a surge of new consumers coming into the Alejandro González, CEO of Aba Se- foreign debt crisis and repeated devalua- market, and the demand for food, petro- guros, agrees about the prospects. “In tions, then more inflation, then renewed leum and clean drinking water. the residential market 96 percent of growth and soaring trade in the early homes are not insured. There’s no in- years of this century thanks to the North In addition, Lozano said, Mexico to- surance culture in Mexico, not even in American Free Trade Agreement. Mex- day enjoys excellent economic funda- the high-end sector. The figures for car ico took a particularly severe bufeting mentals, with record foreign reserves insurance are misleading but we can say in the international financial crisis, not and a strong financial sector. that only about 30 percent to 40 percent because of any inherent weakness in the of cars in Mexico are insured. So 60 per- financial system but because the high de- “There’s no magic wand, but I believe cent to 70 percent have no coverage, not gree of trade integration with the United there’s an opportunity for interesting even third-party insurance. So there re- States magnified the impact. But sound growth through the next six or 12 years.” ally are a lot of opportunities.” economic policies have helped pull the country back on track. Now financial Many bankers tip insurance as a sec- Investment services are another po- institutions are looking for robust excel- tor to grow. “In Mexico the penetration tential growth area. Carlos Bremer Guti- lent growth. of the financial sector in general is low errez, CEO of Value Grupo Financiero, so there’s a lot of potential, but specifi- said the Mexican Stock Market’s Inter- “I believe we’re at a turning point, for cally for insurance the penetration is national Quotation System, introduced various reasons,” said Adrián Lozano very low,” said Guillermo Ortiz Marti- a couple of years ago, made it possible Lozano, CEO of Bancrea. “For a start, the nez, president of Banorte, the country’s to invest abroad without expatriating international context favors developing fifth-largest bank and the only major funds. “Every day we expand the range institution not owned by a foreign group. of products that we ofer,” he said. “The total number of insurance policies Talking ALEJANDRO GONZÁLEZ, CARLOS BREMER GUTIERREZ, ADRIÁN LOZANO LOZANO, finance CEO, Aba Seguros CEO, Value CEO, Bancrea The financial system in Monterrey-based ABA Seguros is a leading Based in Monterrey with branches in A new bank authorized to start Mexico faces exceptional Mexican insurance company with over half Mexico City, Guadalajara, Chihuahua and operations in July of 2013 with an initial a century of experience. It became part of Morelia, Value Grupo Financiero has more three branches and a focus on the Greater opportunities because the ACE Group in May 2013. than 6,000 clients. Monterrey region. —apart from being very solid—it’s currently under- ABA was focused on retail insurance I think this is probably the best moment As a result of Mexico’s 1994 financial crisis, services, while ACE brought expertise, there’s ever been for investing in Mexico. banks here had to apply much higher sized in relation to the infrastructure and technology that The country offers some extremely levels of capital and more stringent risk economy. Private debt is expanded our capabilities into an all-round interesting opportunities—I would single limits. It was many years of suffering just around 20 percent of insurance company ready to meet any out energy, agriculture, tourism and and belt-tightening, but Mexican banks GDP, although rising fast, industrial demand. The union between of course manufacturing. All the main were ready to apply the Basel accords (a and only some 25 percent of ABA and ACE thus goes to the very heart variables that investors look at are very global regulatory framework for more the population is banked. of what Monterrey is: a great market full positive today, and trending in the right resilient banks and banking systems) and Personal credit is difcult to of opportunities in the industrial sector but direction. I would argue that it’s not we are creating Bancrea to apply Basel get and expensive, and much demanding integrated solutions, which unreasonable to rank Mexico as one of III (the most recent). At the same time, company credit comes from we can now offer with the expertise of a the world’s three best investment options we see economies like the United States suppliers rather than banks. company that operates in more than 50 today and for the foreseeable future. and Europe say they need 11 years to All this spells enormous countries. implement Basel III. room for growth as the promised reforms kick in. 20 MONTERREY

Vibrant arts and culture Sponsored Report SPOTLIGHT Culture and the arts took of in cial efort to reach young people. “Marco- Nina Zambrano Monterrey toward the end of the Movil—literally, Mobile Marco—started 19th century, and the city’s emer- around 10 years ago. We wanted to make President MARCO Museum gence as a major center owes much to the art even more accessible. I used to go to Marco’s permanent collection reflects one of its goals: to support of prominent local families who schools and ask students if they had ever promote international contemporary art with an emphasis have created and sponsored universities, been in the museum; very few had. So Mer- on Latin America by bringing together the works of theaters, galleries, museums and a host cedes-Benz donated a bus, and we have established artists. We have more than 100 works; mainly of activities. Leading institutions mirror been to many municipalities and shopping paintings and sculptures, but with a few installations and the city’s business strength by promoting centers—even football matches. The bus some graphic arts. excellence. also has small tables for creative activities. We also have major temporary exhibitions, both individual People feel intimidated in this big build- and collective. These bring Monterrey significant examples “We are not prepared to let the great ing; with Marco-Movil they lose their fear.” of Latin American and international contemporary art talents of Monterrey people go to waste,” by showcasing a variety of techniques such as painting, said Liliana Melo de Sada, president of Generoso Villareal, a successful Mon- sculpture, photography, graphic arts, architecture, installa- the Escuela Superior de Música y Danza, terrey art producer, praised the contri- tion and electronic art. a university founded in 1977 that ofers bution of Marco to preserving culture in 18 degree courses in music and dance and all of its manifestations: “Art is now very Yolanda Santos claims Spanish tenor Plácido Domingo as commercial, which is good, but we need to its honorary president. “We do the same promote culture for its own sake.” President Ballet de Monterrey with engineers and other professionals, We have to institutionalize the artistic venues in Monterrey so why not the arts?” Yolanda Santos de Hoyos, who helped to create continuity and elevate the quality of the culture found the Ballet de Monterrey in 1990 and on offer. It is very important in a city like Monterrey that The Monterrey Museum of Modern remains president to this day, recalled we develop our culture, because at the end of the day, our Art, known as Marco, is a shining example how she worked with other citizens to culture is fundamental for the identity of our people. of the Nuevo León cultural scene at its create the city’s own company: “We dis- The Monterrey Ballet was created to bring culture to best. Occupying a stunning 16,000 m2 edi- covered a great passion for ballet in Mon- Monterrey and the North of Mexico. We’ll go to Torreón, fice created by leading Mexican architect terrey, but after eighth grade at school the Monclova, Saltillo and León. We’re trying to build up the Ricardo Legorreta, the permanent collec- dancers had no continuity.” culture of ballet in these places. tion concentrates on paintings, sculptures and other works from Mexico and Latin With 40 dancers, the company has per- Liliana Melo de Sada America. Europe, the United States and formed in New York, Washington, Miami, Canada are also represented. Houston, Barcelona, Madrid and other President of La Superior cities, describing itself as “a dance com- Monterrey has a rich artistic and cultural heritage. It’s been President Nina Zambrano makes a spe- pany with a Latin flavor.” almost a century since the industrial success began, and in the 1930s there was already a feeling of responsibility to support culture. People used to see Monterrey as just industry and business, but I think our businessmen have always been characterized by their philanthropic efforts, by concern for the well-being of people who work for them—health, education and culture. It was one of the first places in Mexico to have this kind of awareness. USA Office Spain Office Editor-in-Chief Stella Klauhs Creative Director Marta Conceição 1050 Connecticut Avenue, NW Paseo de la Castellana, 10th floor, Suite 1000 95. 15 Planta Managing Director Nadine Padrón Writer Brian Nicholson Washington, DC 20036 - USA 28046 Madrid - Spain Tel +1 202 772 1090 Tel +34 91 418 50 32 Editorial Director Juan Fernández Illustration André Kano [email protected] www.peninsula-press.com Project Directors Laura Fortes, Susana Herrero Editorial Assistant José Santoyo Project Coordinators Eliana Lucio, Soraya Bellaneda http://io.peninsula-press.com/ MONTERREY 21

“ During my studies, I interacted with senior of¿cers from the US armed forces, leading ¿gures in the UN and senior managers from NGOs. This has enabled me to gain a unique insight from some of the most important players in ”international relations. ~ Danilo Zimbres, Class of 2012 Brazilian Vice-Consul in Frankfurt am Main Because the World is Subject to Change Earn Your Master of Arts in Diplomacy – Online Understanding and insight are crucial to foreign relations and global business. Perspective on globalization and knowledge of cross cultural issues will differentiate the leaders and innovators of tomorrow. InÀuence change, initiate dialogue and foster collaboration with Norwich University’s Master of Arts in Diplomacy. Concentrations available include International Terrorism, International ConÀict Management, and International Commerce. Earn your degree in as few as 18 months from a fully accredited university with nearly 200 years of academic heritage. To learn more, visit diplomacy.norwich.edu/fpp NEASC Accreditation: Norwich University is accredited by the New England Association of Schools and Colleges, Inc.,through its Commission on Institutions of Higher Education.

THE100 LEADING GLOBAL THINKERSOF2013 KEITH EDWARD MOXIE ALEXANDER SNOWDEN MARLINSPIKE GLENN KEVIN AMINATA GREENWALD MANDIA TOURÉ SERGEI LAVROV POPE NIGEL FRANÇOIS ANGELA FRANCIS FARAGE HOLLANDE MERKEL ALEXIS LAURA DMITRI JOHN MARIO TSIPRAS POITRAS ALPEROVITCH KERRY DRAGHI ALEXEY PG 64 VLADIMIR NAVALNY PUTIN TAMARA RON SHINZO JOSÉ MORSHAKOVA WYDEN MUJICA YAIR ABE LAPID JESSELYN DAVID RADACK GRAEBER DILMA NINA CÉCILE ROUSSEFF WILSON KYENGE ARVIND PG 75 KEJRIWAL ELLEN WANG LI QISHAN PG 85 DAVID MACARTHUR RAND JAMES C. LOBELL SHEELAH SYLVIA KEQIANG PAUL SCOTT MCLEAN MCADAM MICHAEL JOKO THOMAS BEN ENRIQUE HASSAN ASH WIDODO PETERSON BERNANKE PEÑA NIETO ROUHANI THOMAS ROBERT JESSICA JUAN MANUEL CHRISTINE HERNDON POLLIN GORDON SANTOS LAGARDE THAD CHRIS STEPHANIE TODD IGOR STARNER ANDERSON HERRING STERN GULALAI & SABA KOCHETKOV PG 92 ISMAIL ALEXEY XU DAVYDOV ZHIYONG ELON XIAOLIN XIE FATOU MUSK ZHENG PETER MARTIN AZZAM ZHENHUA BENSOUDA NAVI HOERLING ALWASH PILLAY STOTT HEBA MORAYEF THEODORE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PU BERGER PANEL ON ZHIQIANG PG 96 DAMIAN CLIMATE CHANGE HOSSAM EVANS BAHGAT GEORDIE PG 104 FAREA ROSE BRE BASSEM JULIETA AL-MUSLIMI MARTIN PETTIS YOUSSEF CASTELLANOS COLLEEN RIDDIFORD JIM STEVE THANT FARRELL REEVES KALEV BILL ELKINS MYINT-U MALALA LEETARU PAUL BENENSON YOUSAFZAI SALOPEK URVASHI CHRIS MARY JENNINGS BUTALIA HADFIELD HEGAR THE MARS ROVER TEAM PETER RICHARD JENNIFER HANNAH ZOE KAVITA HIGGS MOSSE HUNT GAY BEDELL KRISHNAN SANJAY PG 110 ZANELE DAVID BASU KATHERINE MUHOLI STUCKLER LUZURIAGA JOSHUA DEBORAH FRANÇOIS OPPENHEIMER PERSAUD ENGLERT LYNETTE YIADOM- FABIOLA WANG THOMAS CAROLINE ERICA BOAKYE CHIMAMANDA GIANOTTI JIANLIN FRIEDMAN BUCKEE CHENOWETH NGOZI ADICHIE JEFF SENDHIL NOVIOLET GEORGE BEZOS MULLAINATHAN HOMI BULAWAYO PACKER KHARAS HAIFAA SAAD PG 117 AL MANSOUR MOHSENI PAUL ELDAR NIEHAUS NOURA SHAFIR MARK JEREMY AL KAABI DYBUL SHAPIRO PG 121 ZAHA BABAK ANAND MICHAEL HADID WANG NIVI GROVER FAYE MOHSIN GONGQUAN ROHIT HAMID WANCHOO PG 127 JIA ZHANGKE JONATHAN STEPHEN NAVAL WATKINS SCHWARZMAN RAVIKANT TAMARA MARK CHALABI ZUCKERBERG

THE SURVEILLANCE STATE AND ITS DISCONTENTS This year, leaks of classified U.S. government documents rewrote our understanding not only of the American intelligence apparatus, but of the possibilities and pitfalls of the Internet writ large. The statesmen, hackers, and activists in this category of Global Thinkers are working on the bleeding edge of the digital revolution, where a battle is being fought over who will control the defining tool of the 21st century. They represent those seeking to harness the web in the name of national security, those working to bring it under the letter of the law, and those hoping to liberate it in the name of human freedom. 64 DECEMBER 2013

REUTERS/TOBIAS SCHWARZ; ALEXANDER: SAUL LOEB/AFP/GETTY IMAGES EDWARD SNOWDEN Supporters of Edward Snowden rally in Berlin in July. Snowden leaked top-secret government documents this year, revealing the scope of U.S. electronic surveillance. LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS SURVEILLANCE STATE FOR EXPOSING THE REACH OF GOVERNMENT SPYING. leaks from the documents can eral’s impact: Keith Alexander even as belt-tightening gripped go on without him—and they is the architect of a sweeping most of the government. The FORMER CONTRACTOR, NATIONAL certainly will—it’s unclear surveillance infrastructure that nsa recently constructed a $2 whether Snowden the man now is monitoring Internet traffic in billion data-processing center »SECURITY AGENCY | RUSSIA matters as much as Snowden the United States and routine- in Utah, and it is considering Perhaps the most the symbol. Still, his actions ly scooping up Americans’ quadrupling the size of its Fort surprising thing about to date have positioned him phone records, emails, and text Meade facility. the man behind the biggest as the single most important messages. Surveillance also story of 2013 is that we know his figure in the global surveillance extends to countries around The surveillance state Alex- name. When Edward Snowden debate—and the most divisive the world. ander has built, it seems, is here took credit for giving journalists world figure of 2013. to stay, and its next move may classified documents from the Alexander made headlines in be to take over the security of U.S. National Security Agency, KEITH ALEXANDER 2013 when leaked documents major companies threatened by in the process revealing sev- showed that the National Secu- cyberattack. As Alexander, who eral clandestine intelligence FOR MASTERMINDING THE rity Agency has been collecting is supposed to retire in 2014, programs, he deviated from SURVEILLANCE STATE. data from the world’s largest said recently, “I am concerned the long-standing tradition technology companies—a that this is going to break a of anonymity among leakers. DIRECTOR, NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY; revelation that set off a storm threshold where the private Consequently, Snowden has COMMANDER, U.S. CYBER of public criticism and induced sector can no longer handle it become the public face of a heartburn among some in and the government is going to raging international debate COMMAND | FORT MEADE, MD. the intelligence community have to step in.” over surveillance. who fear Alexander is running » He has been called roughshod over Americans’ For Alexander’s critics, the Opinions on the merits “Emperor Alexander” constitutional rights. One notion is a sinister one. (For of Snowden’s actions are as and “Alexander the Geek” by former intelligence official who more on the surveillance state, divergent as the terms used to his colleagues. But even those worked with the general has see William T. Vollmann’s describe him. Patriot, whis- nicknames don’t truly capture said that he “tended to be a bit article on p. 68.) tleblower, hero. Traitor, enemy, the scope of this four-star gen- of a cowboy” whose philosophy defector. “I’m an American,” was, “Let’s not worry about the GLENN GREENWALD, Snowden told the South China law. Let’s just figure out how to LAURA POITRAS Morning Post while in Hong get the job done.” Kong in June, the month that FOR GIVING EDWARD the first media accounts based But even as his work is SNOWDEN A VOICE. on his pilfered files appeared. increasingly saturated in con- “I acted in good faith, but it is troversy, Alexander’s domain is »JOURNALISTS | BRAZIL, GERMANY only right that the public form growing. From a 350-acre head- Glenn Greenwald and its own opinion.” quarters in Maryland, Alexan- Laura Poitras are be- der oversees tens of thousands lieved to be the only journal- From Hong Kong, Snowden of employees and a budget that ists with full access to leaker flew to Moscow, seeking asylum expanded by billions of dollars as U.S. authorities charged him with espionage, theft, and “unauthorized communication of national defense informa- tion.” Intelligence sources have pegged Snowden’s cache of documents at approximate- ly 50,000 pages, and their contents have inspired intense backlash. Leaks from the files, for instance, have compelled foreign governments targeted by U.S. spying to seek a U.N. resolution about the rights of individuals to retain their priva- cy on the Internet. Snowden remains in Russia, at least temporarily, and he has reportedly given two journal- ists, Glenn Greenwald and Laura Poitras, full access to his documents. Insofar as, in Greenwald and Poitras’s hands, 65FOREIGN POLICY

LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS SURVEILLANCE STATE Edward Snowden’s purloined DILMA ROUSSEFF RON WYDEN trove of documents from the FOR CONFRONTING ROUSSEFF: EVARISTO SA/AFP/GETTY IMAGES; WYDEN: MARK WILSON/GETTY IMAGESNational Security Agency. WASHINGTON AND ITS SPIES. FOR INSISTING THAT THE LAW SHOULD NEVER BE SECRET. Thus, what more we learn about the nsa’s classified spy- » PRESIDENT | BRAZIL SENATOR | WASHINGTON ing operations is largely up to When Edward Greenwald, a blogger turned Snowden disclosed “Does the nsa collect any type of data at all on millions or columnist for the Guardian, the extent of the National Se- hundreds of millions of Americans?” When Sen. Ron Wyden and Poitras, a documentary curity Agency’s surveillance asked that question of the U.S. director of national intelligence, James filmmaker. (Both have joined activities in Latin America, it Clapper, in March, he already knew the answer. But his hands were tied a recently announced online awoke memories of a histor- because, as he explained in July, “under the classification rules observed news venture backed by eBay ical U.S. paternalism at odds by the Senate, we are not even allowed to tap the truth out in Morse founder Pierre Omidyar.) with the region’s growing code—and we tried just about everything else we could think of to warn sense of independence and the American people.” In the work they’ve done strength. No leader has come Edward Snowden revealed what Wyden couldn’t: The National Security thus far with Snowden’s doc- to embody the resulting out- Agency is surveilling U.S. citizens. That revelation allowed Wyden to wage uments, revealing the extent rage quite like Brazilian Pres- his fight publicly—and wage he has. of the nsa’s spying on U.S. ident Dilma Rousseff. She has He wants to roll back the nsa’s authority to collect data on Americans citizens, world leaders, and openly criticized the United and make public the government’s interpretations of terrorism laws. others, Greenwald has been States, including in a scathing To get there, he has pressured intelligence ofcials and even President the more public half of the speech at the U.N., and she Barack Obama to disclose their legal interpretations of the Patriot Act and duo. A frequent guest on radio even canceled a state dinner the extent of the surveillance apparatus the law has been used to create. and tv shows, he’s working in Washington. “The right to He has also pushed legislation to make the intelligence community more on a highly anticipated book safety of citizens of one coun- accountable to Congress. and has engaged in more than try can never be guaranteed It’s not unusual for Wyden’s principles to separate him from his a few Twitter fights with his by violating fundamental colleagues. He was on the losing side of votes to strip wiretap provisions critics. Poitras is a quieter human rights of citizens of from the Patriot Act, and in March, he was the only Democrat to join force. Instead of hitting the another country,” Rousseff Republican Sen. Rand Paul in protesting the administration’s targeted- talk-show circuit, she has argued before the U.N. killing policy. The nsa revelations just gave Wyden a new platform for opted to set up shop in Berlin expressing his outrage about violations of Americans’ civil liberties. and pore through Snowden’s Her anger is informed by After a move to restrict the nsa’s surveillance program failed by documents, writing for outlets her background as a leftist just 12 congressional votes in July, Wyden told Rolling Stone, “I think like Der Spiegel and teaming revolutionary. The daughter Congress will come back in the fall and there will be new support for up with other reporters, such of a Bulgarian ex-communist the kinds of views we’re talking about.” That hasn’t happened yet, but as the New York Times’ James who fled his home in the expect Wyden to keep working overtime to secure that support. Risen. 1930s, Rousseff was a militant left-wing university student ing the movements of foreign in the affairs of its southern Poitras, the first journalist by the time a military dicta- diplomats in its capital a neighbors and, more recently, with whom Snowden made torship took over Brazil. With decade ago—Rousseff’s a drug war that has left tens of contact via email, told the her husband, she smuggled anti-authoritarian impulses thousands dead have fanned Times of their initial corre- guns, bombs, and money for have aligned conveniently the flames of discontent with spondence, “I thought, ok, the guerrilla group Colina. with her country’s desire to Uncle Sam. Amid the nsa if this is true, my life just After allegedly helping to plan flex its muscles and represent scandal, Rousseff has had changed.” Since that moment, the 1969 theft of $2.5 million the interests of its region. no problem reminding the Poitras and Greenwald have from the mistress of a former Among Rousseff’s generation United States that its era of been consumed by Snowden’s São Paulo governor, Rousseff of Latin American leaders, the dominance in Latin America leaks—a situation that shows was apprehended, spending legacy of U.S. interventions is over. no signs of abating. As Poitras three years in prison and told the Times, she and Green- enduring intense torture. She wald may never really be free maintains her innocence. of the surveillance apparatus they’ve worked to expose. “I In standing up to U.S. spy- don’t know if I’ll ever be able to ing—even as Brazil admitted live someplace and feel like I to following and photograph- have my privacy,” Poitras said. “That might be just completely gone.” But having their worlds permanently altered is a reality Greenwald and Poitras have accepted: Both say there are more surveillance stories to come. 66 DECEMBER 2013

JESSELYN RADACK try to shift the media story use it,” Marlinspike, who goes 2013 IN LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS SURVEILLANCE STATE from details about the former by a pseudonym, said at a 2010 LEAKS FOR CHAMPIONING THE RIGHTS nsa contractor to the specif- computer security conference. OF WHISTLEBLOWERS. ics and potential impact of Since Edward Snowden the surveillance programs he In 2013, revelations about delivered classified NATIONAL SECURITY AND HUMAN has revealed. (In October, she mass spying by the National U.S. National Security RIGHTS DIRECTOR, GOVERNMENT visited Snowden in Russia to Security Agency have made Agency documents to present him with an “Integrity Marlinspike seem like a surveil- Glenn Greenwald and ACCOUNTABILITY PROJECT | in Intelligence” award.) lance soothsayer. (In May, he Laura Poitras, news also exposed a Saudi telecom- sources have published » WASHINGTON “Instead of focusing on munications company that revelations about the Before she became a Snowden and shooting the tried to hire him to monitor its scope of U.S. surveillance. leading defender of messenger, we should really fo- customers.) He has had plenty Here are some highlights, government whistleblowers, cus on the crimes of the nsa,” to say about the nsa news: “It listed by the dates we Jesselyn Radack was one her- Radack told abc’s This Week in is possible to develop us- learned about them. self. In 2002, Radack resigned June. “Because whatever laws er-friendly technical solutions from the U.S. Justice Depart- Snowden may or may not have that would stymie this type of JUNE 5 ment after John Walker Lindh, broken, they are infinitesimal- surveillance.… It’s going to take the so-called “American Tali- ly small compared to the two all of us,” he wrote on his blog. The NSA ordered Verizon ban,” was questioned without major surveillance laws and Calling for “all the opposition Business Network Services his lawyer present. Radack, the Fourth Amendment of the we can muster,” he implored to hand over metadata for who had advised prosecutors Constitution that the nsa’s other techies to join him in all U.S. phone calls on an against the interrogation, gave violated.” developing ways to undermine “ongoing daily basis.” emails about the event to a surveillance. reporter. MOXIE MARLINSPIKE JUNE 6 FOR MAKING IT HARDER For a man who says he Today, at the Government FOR THE NSA—AND GOOGLE— “secretly hate[s] technology,” PRISM, an NSA program, Accountability Project, Radack Marlinspike’s tools and mes- obtains information is a go-to defender of and pub- TO SPY ON YOU. sage have already gone a long from companies such as lic advocate for government way toward defying states and Microsoft, Google, and employees who have disclosed CO-FOUNDER, WHISPER companies that spy. Facebook to access videos, sensitive information about SYSTEMS | SAN FRANCISCO emails, documents, and intelligence and counterter- KEVIN MANDIA connection logs. rorism programs to journalists. » In January 2011, as Her most famous client is for- Egyptians took to the FOR IDENTIFYING THE AUG. 21 mer National Security Agency streets in revolution, Moxie PERPETRATORS OF CHINA’S official Thomas Drake, who Marlinspike, then working at a Over three years, one NSA told a Baltimore Sun reporter tiny tech start-up, designed a CYBER-OFFENSIVE. program collected as many about a failed computer sys- pair of encrypted communica- as 56,000 emails from tem at the agency that cost tax- tions services, RedPhone and FOUNDER, CHIEF EXECUTIVE, Americans who had no payers millions of dollars. The TextSecure, that protect phone discernible connection to government tried to prosecute calls and text messages from »MANDIANT | ALEXANDRIA, VA. terrorism. Drake under the Espionage eavesdroppers. “[RedPhone] Since at least January Act, but dropped the charges is targeted just for Egypt, but 2010, when Google OCT. 24 before going to trial. sets the stage for worldwide reported that a “highly sophis- support,” he told Wired at the ticated” attack on its corporate The NSA monitored the In 2013, Radack has been time. infrastructure and “at least phone calls of 35 world a regular on talk shows and twenty other large companies” leaders. op-ed pages, advocating for Twitter later bought the had originated in China, U.S. whistleblower protections and start-up, Whisper Systems, for business executives have wor- FOR SOURCING, PLEASE VISIT criticizing the unprecedented an undisclosed amount, and ried about the integrity of their FOREIGNPOLICY.COM prosecutions of leakers by the Marlinspike’s creations have secrets. But because of the Obama administration. She’s been released as Android apps. difficulty of determining the 67FOREIGN POLICY not representing the world’s Versions for the iPhone are in most famous whistleblower, development. He also designed continued on page 74 Edward Snowden, but she is a program that helps people using her quasi-celebrity to remain anonymous when they’re using Google’s services. “Who knows more about citizens in their own country, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il or Google? Why is Google not scary? Because we choose to



MACHINES LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS SURVEILLANCE STATE OFLOVING GRACE I’D RATHER RISK BECOMING A TERRORIST’S VICTIM THAN LIVE UNDER A SURVEILLANCE STATE. BY WILLIAM T. VOLLMANN ILLUSTRATION BY OLIVER MUNDAY THAT THE UNITED STATES WILL SUFFER ANOTHER as needed. As a Richard Brautigan at age 5) would presumably cause inter- major terrorist attack is certain. In the poem has it, we would be “all watched action with airline industry.” long run, determined, intelligent malice, over by machines of loving grace.” coupled with the willingness to sacrifice In fact, some cursory investigation one’s own life in the act, must now and I myself would rather risk becoming a of my activities might not have been then trump our defenses, which remain terrorist’s victim than live under any such unreasonable. To carry out my journal- merely reactive. To be sure, proactive system. istic work I have visited war zones, drug measures (such as drone strikes and com- lords, and so-called “rogue states.” But mando operations) may prevent certain NOT LONG AGO, THANKS TO A REQUEST MADE the snoopers were more interested in my terrorist operations. All the same, we can under the Freedom of Information “anti-progress” themes. only see and foresee so much. A lone-wolf Act (foia), I learned that I had been a suicide bomber retains the advantage. suspect in the Unabomber case. You see, My file, which I wrote about in detail I had written a historical novel called for Harper’s, indicates that the fbi sur- It follows that any rational policy- Fathers and Crows, and the Unabomb- veilled and perhaps burgled my home. maker would wish to know as much er’s moniker was fc. That book, by the After the Unabomber was brought to as possible about as many people as way, exemplified my “anti-growth and justice, I became a suspect in the 2001 possible. A perfect extension of this aim anti-progress” themes, according to the anthrax attacks, in part because I had would entail constant passive surveil- (redacted) copy of my fbi file, because it been a former Unabomber suspect. Your lance of everyone on Earth, with the was about 17th-century Iroquois. Even tax dollars at work! capability of making that surveillance worse, “regarding airline-related targets, active and then employing lethal force vollmann’s extensive travel (beginning The contents of the file (or the 294 out of 785 pages I was allowed to read) are frequently laughable. About this case, 69FOREIGN POLICY

LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS SURVEILLANCE STATE my foia lawyer, David Sobel, wrote: PREVENTING has been broken three times. Lately, “Vollmann’s writing and professional MISUSES OF some good Nazi seems to have started associations were the sole reasons for SURVEILLANCE on the inner lining. First it was torn back the fbi’s interest in him, leading to the IS NEARLY just a trifle, then a trifle more. I imagine creation of a Bureau dossier that tells us a IMPOSSIBLE— they will keep doing it, because it is now lot about the factors that often drive law ALL THE beginning to appear thoroughly suspi- enforcement and national security inves- MORE SO cious. I once called a Homeland Security tigations.” The 1974 Privacy Act, passed BECAUSE MANY telephone number to complain and, of to prevent the sorts of abuses uncovered FUNCTIONARIES course, received no response. by the Senate’s Church Committee, WOULD CLAIM prohibits federal agencies from keeping THAT THEY For another example, consider the Iraq records on how Americans exercise their ARE NOT war. As I understand it, erroneous intelli- First Amendment rights. But as Sobel MISUSES. gence—the weapons of mass destruction noted, “This restriction, however, is not that Saddam Hussein did not have and absolute; it permits the collection of vestigation in Mexico), I became “evasive the link between Baghdad and al Qaeda such information if it is ‘pertinent to and about its use.” In fact, this is an utter lie. that could never be verified—led to a war within the scope of an authorized law I answered all their questions freely and whose false pretenses have covered this enforcement activity.’ As the Vollmann fully. Without the Freedom of Informa- nation with shame and whose destruction file demonstrates, that’s a loophole that’s tion Act, I would never have been alerted of Iraqi society and thousands (some say easy to pass through when the ‘rights to this tiny character smear. Well, where’s hundreds of thousands) of casualties in guaranteed by the First Amendment’ are the harm? Simply this: Were I an agent of no way constituted just reprisal for the 9/11 exercised by those deemed to ‘think like’ the Department of Homeland Security attacks. I remember when then-Secretary or ‘write like’ the wrong people.” who was called upon to read the file of of State Colin Powell tried to sell our errors Suspect No. S-2047, I might well decide or lies (how can I ever know which?) to As I remind myself and my friends, no that his evasive character warranted European heads of state, seeking and real harm came to me. In a worse country, I more thorough treatment. My laptop has largely failing to get partners for our so- might have wound up in prison. Of course, never yet been confiscated at the border; called “coalition.” You may disagree with what would have happened to me right perhaps that will happen the next time I my opinion on this subject. But please re- here had my name been Mohammed? return from the Middle East. Who knows? member that it is shared by many people Such micro-slanders—or, if you like, er- all over the world and that it bears violent Anglo-American that I am, I have rors of understanding and transcription— consequences. Having been to Afghan- suffered only small inconveniences. For further their own extension. istan, Somalia, Yemen, and Iraq, I can one thing, I have lost any expectation of assure you: The rage we engender through reliably receiving my international mail. If you doubt this, let the following be a secret and therefore unaccountable kill- My Japanese translator informs me that metaphor. I travel often. In the last several ings over there impels some individuals she has written me a number of times; years, the zipper of my unlocked suitcase to reprisals. Secrecy hinders the detection her letters never reach me. Books from of errors, thereby making us less safe if we my French publisher have come with kill the wrong people. each volume’s spine carefully slit open. All I can do is throw them in the trash. This raises the central question: Who A letter from my mother, who lives in gets to decide what surveillance proves Switzerland, shows up with the envelope and what response it calls for? unsealed. How will I ever know why this keeps happening to me? Has the U.S. When I read in the newspaper that Postal Service grown ham-handed, or are another drone strike in Pakistan has neu- my tax dollars helping to employ some tralized militants or suspected militants, I operative charged with bulking out the wonder how many of them were innocent file of Suspect No. S-2047? As a uniformed women and children. What if they all bully proudly informed me in 2002, when were? What little I possess on which to I was detained (for the first time) at the found any judgment, namely my fbi file, border crossing in Calexico, California proves that investigations can be absurdly (for only three hours): “We know quite a off base and that agents can lie. U.S. bit about you.” citizens seem to be expected to believe whatever the government says about IN THE DAYS WHEN I WAS A COMPUTER whomever it kills, just because it says so. I programmer, there used to be an acro- reply: Not in my name. nym: gigo, meaning “garbage in, garbage out.” A surveillance file is only as good as SURVEILLANCE BECOMES MORE ODIOUS TO THE its compilers. If some functionary wishes surveilled as it is coupled with secrecy. to make himself look important and me An absolutely open society, in which look bad, he can write, as one did, that we could watch each other at any time, when my detainers asked me about my might be beautiful in its own way, but it button camera (used for a journalistic in- would certainly be alien to us. A society in which the surveilled are kept ignorant of 70 DECEMBER 2013

the watching, the state that our security NOW FOR MY FINAL OBJECTION TO SECRET my bank, which always tries to learn LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS SURVEILLANCE STATE apparatus appears to be striving for—one surveillance. I can, perhaps, admit the more about me; the nameless ghouls and reason it expressed so much fury when theoretical possibility of government trolls that track consumers’ preferences, leaker Edward Snowden exposed its spying that is motivated only by the associations, and spending habits on activities—would be the other extreme. highest good of that government’s cit- the Internet in order to “assist” us with As I have said, it is not a society in which I izens—“good” as both the government personalized advertisements; the phone would like to live. and its citizens define it. Of course such companies, so ready to share God-knows- a situation is extraordinarily unlikely. what information with the National Surveillance creates a power differen- From my point of view, it would entail, Security Agency—these are the sorts of tial. The spies know ever more about the among other things, an absolute prohi- creatures that will feed on the surveil- spied-on, who know virtually nothing bition on “fishing expeditions” and on lance boom. about the spies. We live in what is fondly the use of data collected ostensibly to imagined to be a “representative democ- fight terrorism for other purposes. For MY OLD FRIEND PAUL FOSTER, WHO IS AT LEAST racy.” I understand this to mean that my example, a drone that can see through as good an American as I, proposes the leaders exercise power on my behalf, sub- walls and ceilings flies over my home following definition: “Privacy is the ject to recall. My choice at the polls will be to check for anthrax and discovers a right to do what you feel guilty about.” limited and may be sterile; nonetheless, I marijuana greenhouse (which, let the “Guilty” is not quite the word I would cherish the sense, however illusory, that fbi be assured, I don’t have), after which choose. But were I to expand on Paul’s my government remains accountable the Drug Enforcement Administration formulation, I would say that whatever I to me. If my congresswoman supports comes to arrest me. Or let’s suppose that do in the bathroom and bedroom ought legislation that entails spying on citizens, someone like President Richard Nixon to be my business alone. The second I may, if I hear about it, try to vote her out simply wishes to extend his “enemies time the U.S. government detained me and vote in another person who might list.” I repeat, preventing such misuses in Calexico (nearly seven hours), I even- repeal her bill. If, however, I am prohibited of surveillance is nearly impossible—all tually needed to urinate, so a uniformed from knowing what she seeks to do, my the more so because many functionaries functionary followed me to the lavatory ability to stop her declines from implau- would claim that they are not misus- and then watched through the door- sible to hopeless. Where is accountability es. All the same, let us envision some way as I peed. I was not ashamed, only then? herculean, incorruptible mechanism of offended. I’ll bet he wouldn’t have liked oversight that forces the government to it if I’d watched him pee. Well, so what? THERE ARE TWO REASONS SPIES PREFER TO police itself, with severe criminal penal- Have my “rights” been violated? And watch their targets secretly. First, and ties applied to corrupt agents or corrupt when I come down with prostatitis and most practically, so long as surveillance purposes (such as entrapping members they test me for gonorrhea and enter the remains undetected, it may continue at of dissident organizations). The problem result of the test into my medical record, will. At times, this is commendable. I am remains that, when it comes to surveil- where’s the harm? It all depends on grateful to those American agents who lance, we have to deal not only with the whether the medical-industrial complex eavesdrop continuously on al Qaeda and government, whose ends and limits Abra- sells that information. Maybe some puri- other organizations dedicated to doing me ham Lincoln succinctly laid out: tanical college will buy it and then make harm. But let me state the obvious: Most sure I never lecture there. Well, I could human beings, including those whose The legitimate object of govern- probably still pay my mortgage. But profession is surveillance, prefer to make ment, is to do for a community of what if every time I applied for a job the their work convenient and productive. people, whatever they need to have employer’s hired candidate-investigation Who would voluntarily make it inconve- done, but can not do, at all, or can service pulled up the information that nient and unproductive? Therefore, some not, so well do, for themselvesÑin I have been a terrorist suspect and that outside party had better monitor each spy, their separate, and individual Homeland Security’s surveillance of me to decide just when he must be compelled capacities. appears to be ongoing? Thank goodness to go against his immediate interest. I am a privileged native son! For what In all that the people can individ- if my name were Mohammed? My file After all, the second reason spies like ually do as well for themselves, reveals that sometimes the fbi could not their secrecy is because it protects them government ought not to interfere. even spell my name right. What if they from oversight. In The Republic, Socrates mixed up one Mohammed with another mentions the ring of Gyges, which gives Limited active and passive surveillance and nobody cared? its wearer invisibility. What would I do if I of proven terrorists is Lincolnesque, jus- had it? Could I resist watching my favorite tified. Unfortunately, we also must take Postscript: I feel honored to have been actress take a shower or, worse yet, read into account big business. invited to express my thoughts here. The my unexpurgated fbi file? “If now there longer I live, the more I love our beautiful should be two such rings, and the just EVEN THE MOST NAIVE PATRIOT CAN HARDLY land and the ideals of our Constitution. man should put on one and the unjust believe that the corporations have our the other, no one could be found, it would interest at heart. Their purpose is profit. William T. Vollmann is an American seem, of such adamantine temper as to The robo-entities that send me credit novelist, journalist, essayist, and winner persevere in justice.” Why indeed should card offers in the mail, which I must then of a 2005 National Book Award. I trust in the justice of an operative, never shred to reduce my risk of identity theft; mind an entire system, whose very exis- tence is secret? FOREIGN POLICY 71





LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS SURVEILLANCE STATE CH1N4’S L33T PETER PARKS/AFP/GETTY IMAGES H4X0RS* The Internet security firm Mandiant, run by Kevin Mandia, alleges that this 12-story building in Shanghai is the home of a Chinese UGLYGORILLA military-led hacking group. Thought to be in People’s source of a hack and the seem- China denied the report’s back or [to] take data off that Liberation Army (pla) Unit ing absurdity (not to mention accusations, but they are widely machine to mitigate the dam- 61398, this hacker has sensitivity) of accusing Beijing, seen as credible. Similar to age?” Alperovitch said in an attacked U.S business and the allegations went unproved. what Edward Snowden’s leaks interview with mit Technology government targets and is have done to the U.S. National Review, which named him one known for the signature “No That is, until a February 2013 Security Agency, Mandiant’s of 2013’s top innovators under Doubt to Hack You, Writed report by the cybersecurity report has made it much more age 35. by UglyGorilla.” firm Mandiant traced individ- difficult for China to pretend it ual hacks of U.S. companies to isn’t launching attacks. This provocative approach SUPERHARD an exact address in Shanghai. isn’t without controversy. DMITRI ALPEROVITCH Many cybersecurity experts ar- Also in Unit 61398, In the report, ceo Kevin FOR LEVELING THE CYBER gue that it’s a terrible idea for SuperHard has infiltrated Mandia and his team of corpo- PLAYING FIELD. a private business to retaliate, Windows operating systems rate lawyers and cybergeeks CO-FOUNDER, a practice colloquially called and sometimes changes the traced more than 90 percent of CROWDSTRIKE | IRVINE, CALIF. “hacking back,” because it will signature on system files the attacks they had seen to the only encourage hackers—who from “Microsoft corp.” to headquarters of Unit 61398 of » Amid reports in 2010 probably have more resources “superhard corp.” the People’s Liberation Army. that Chinese hackers than the business—to become “Either they are coming from were stealing billions of dollars more aggressive. Alpero- TAWNYA inside Unit 61398,” Mandia in trade secrets from American vitch, in response, says that GRILTH told the New York Times, “or companies, Dmitri Alperovitch with active defense, he isn’t the people who run the most saw a business opportunity. advocating hacking back, but Outed by Bloomberg controlled, most monitored Eschewing ineffective firewalls rather a framework that allows Businessweek as Zhang Internet networks in the world and virus scanners, Alpero- networks under attack to iden- Changhe, an employee at are clueless about thousands of vitch decided the best way to tify the source and use limited a pla military academy, people generating attacks from defeat serious hackers was to offensive measures, such as Tawnya Grilth infiltrated this one neighborhood.” use some of their own tactics misinformation and malware, government computers against them, gaining intelli- against it. in Vietnam, Brunei, and In May, in a white paper gence about who they are, how Myanmar. titled “Chinese Motivations for they operate, and what they CrowdStrike has plenty of Corporate Espionage: A His- steal. supporters: It has garnered HONKER torical Perspective,” Mandiant some $60 million from eager UNION made a case for why Beijing It’s a strategy Alperovitch investors and wowed audienc- would conduct large-scale calls “active defense,” and es at tech conferences. This A nationalist hacker corporate spying. “China’s he co-founded a company, has helped Alperovitch make collective, the Honker Union political history and popular CrowdStrike, to help clients headway in his mission to, as has attacked networks in culture is littered with exam- employ it. “Why can’t you he said in August, “change the the United States and Japan. ples of changing allegiances, go into [a] network for the existing security paradigm … The group’s leader, who uses profiteering, lies, spying, etc. purpose of getting your data and protect the intellectual the nom de guerre “Lion,” is in the name of victory, which, property and trade secrets that a man named Lin Yong. more often than not, ultimately are the crown jewels of our equals moral legitimacy,” the knowledge-based economy.” * In hacker speak, “China’s report said. elite hackers.” FOR SOURCING, PLEASE VISIT FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 74 DECEMBER 2013

THE DECISION- MAKERS High ofce—whether elected, appointed, or simply taken— comes with power. But that is not a sufcient precondition for success. Among the world’s hundreds of regents, presidents, chairmen, ministers, and secretaries, only a few really stand out for the risks they have taken and the changes they have made. Their impact is not always uniformly positive and sometimes their gambits are not rewarded, but their influence cannot be denied. In this category, we acknowledge leaders who have shown the courage to lay their reputations on the line, the cunning to seize opportunities, or the wisdom to recognize that the worst enemy of the political establishment is often inertia. 75FOREIGN POLICY

LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS DECISION-MAKERS JOHN KERRY tional community to ward off LI KEQIANG U.S. military action, the White KERRY: CHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGES; LI: LUONG THAI LINH/AFP/GETTY IMAGES FOR BETTING ON MIDDLE House and Kremlin turned an FOR TAKING ON CHINA’S BIGGEST ECONOMIC CHALLENGES. EAST PEACE WHEN ofand comment into a diplo- matic deal.) But it’s easy to see PREMIER | CHINA NO ONE ELSE WOULD. that Kerry is making real (if incomplete) progress on what China’s economy, as Li Keqiang is fond of noting, is at a crucial »SECRETARY OF STATE | WASHINGTON naysayers have long dismissed stage. It is moving from a growth model driven by exports As secretary of state, as radioactive, quixotic initia- and investment to one with a heavier focus on domestic consumption. Hillary Clinton tives. “Countries and people Chinese policymakers have said that annual gdp growth of roughly 7.5 famously practiced what a and leaders of countries act percent, lower than the near double-digit rate China enjoyed over U.S. official once described out of self-interest,” he once the past few decades, is the new normal. If the economy is not properly as “odometer diplomacy,” remarked. “Foreign policy is stewarded, however, the rate could drop to 4 percent—or even lower— logging 956,733 miles across the art of finding those inter- raising fears of social unrest. 112 countries. Her successor, ests and seeing what serves The man overseeing this transition is Li, who ascended to China’s by contrast, prefers to focus your nation, and trying to premiership in March 2013. An economist by training, Li has on the speedometer. marry them.” implemented policies aimed at structural reform that sacrifice short- term growth so that China can achieve more sustainable economic Since taking over at Foggy VLADIMIR PUTIN, expansion in the future. For instance, he has reduced the amount Bottom in February, John SERGEI LAVROV of credit available in the country’s market, vowed to overhaul Kerry has raised eyebrows by and open up state-dominated financial institutions, and pushed for plunging into the world’s most FOR RE-ESTABLISHING RUSSIA interest-rate liberalization. intractable conflicts, persuad- AS A GLOBAL POWER. Li also reportedly spearheaded Shanghai’s free trade zone, a ing the Israelis and Palestin- closely watched area in China’s financial capital that launched in late ians not just to relaunch peace »PRESIDENT, FOREIGN MINISTER | RUSSIA September. It may have some of the country’s most open economic talks but to strive for a final In one masterstroke, policies—and may be a harbinger of things to come nationwide. agreement, threatening U.S. Russian President Vlad- Although details remain sparse, the zone will reportedly allow China’s military intervention while imir Putin and Foreign Minister currency to be converted more easily and permit wholly foreign- pushing a political solution in Sergei Lavrov reversed what owned banks to open in China for the first time. Syria, recruiting China to neu- could have been a death blow If Beijing meets the challenges it faces, Li says, “the giant vessel tralize North Korea as a global against Moscow’s sole remain- of the Chinese economy will break waves and sail far.” Given threat, and participating in ing ally in the Arab world. In China’s status in the world today, that could mean smooth sailing a flurry of high-level nuclear September, as the United States for the global economy as well. talks with his Iranian counter- prepared to launch airstrikes part at the United Nations. against Syria’s regime for using have laid the groundwork for a using his new platform to argue chemical weapons, Lavrov broader resurgence of Russia’s that the days of American he- In short, Kerry has an seized on an unexpected public global role. Putin brushed off gemony are over. In September, appetite for getting in a room remark by U.S. Secretary of U.S. pressure when granting he wrote in the New York Times and hammering out the Big State John Kerry to propose an Edward Snowden, the leaker that it “is extremely dangerous Issues with the Big Players. (For initiative whereby Damascus of top-secret National Security to encourage people to see more on the Kerry Doctrine, would give up its chemical Agency files, temporary asylum themselves as exceptional.” see Douglas Brinkley’s article weapons if the West pulled back in Moscow. Lavrov, mean- The kgb operative turned pres- on p. 78.) on its threat to attack. Putin while, has played matchmaker ident may not have returned then swooped in to present between the international com- his country to the superpower Granted, sometimes it’s Moscow as the world’s voice of munity and Tehran, arguing status of the Soviet empire, hard to tell whether Kerry is reason. Even as Syrian Presi- that a grand bargain over the but with Lavrov’s aid, he has at the vanguard of President dent Bashar al-Assad employed nuclear issue can be consum- allowed Russia to enjoy more Barack Obama’s foreign policy Russian-made arms to crush mated in just months. international influence than it or way out ahead of it. (When rebels, Putin framed Moscow’s has in a generation. Kerry pledged that U.S. drone position as a defense of inter- Putin hasn’t been shy about strikes in Pakistan would end, national law. “We protect the the administration furiously modern world order,” he said. backpedaled; when he pub- licly floated the possibility of Whether or not Assad gives Syria handing over its chem- up his stockpile, there’s no ical weapons to the interna- denying that the duo in the Kremlin has successfully transformed Russia into an indispensable player in efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis. And beyond Syria, Putin and Lavrov 76 DECEMBER 2013

ABE: FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/GETTY IMAGES; PEÑA NIETO: CHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGES WANG QISHAN politics is more opaque than a involves three components: a WHAT IS river full of fish. But Wang, it $210 billion stimulus that fo- ‘ABENOMICS’ LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS DECISION-MAKERS FOR INSISTING THAT CHINA’S is thought, is perceived as less cuses on public works, finan- ELITES ARE NOT ABOVE THE LAW. corrupt than his peers—and cial aid for small companies, TRYING perhaps only someone with and incentives for corporate TO TACKLE? MEMBER, POLITBURO that kind of reputation can investment; the liberaliza- clean up China’s water. tion of monetary policy; and 243% »STANDING COMMITTEE | CHINA reforms to stimulate private Book of Han, a history SHINZO ABE investment. Abe has managed Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio. of ancient China, con- to force members of the noto- Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tains the expression, “There FOR REVIVING THE riously reactionary Japanese hopes to reduce that figure, are no fish in clean water.” It JAPANESE ECONOMY. bureaucracy to work together was a phrase appropriated by in instituting his plan—the largely through growth Mao Zedong, whose political PRIME MINISTER | JAPAN first two components have and moderate inflation. system thrived on moral been implemented, while the ambiguity and a utilitarian » In 2007, Japan and third is, to date, less defined— 14% sense of progress. China’s Shinzo Abe were both and amping up gdp growth. next paramount leader, Deng in bad shape. The country The amount that Japan’s Xiaoping, was also a pragma- was still mired in its “lost Abenomics appears to be GDP would expand if female tist, but one who wanted decades,” which started in working. The Bank of Japan to end the excesses of Mao’s 1991 after the collapse of its announced in September participation in the labor purges. He reportedly stock market and real estate that “Japan’s economy is force—currently at about instituted an unwritten rule bubble sent its economy into recovering moderately,” and 60 percent—matched male shielding the country’s top a tailspin. Abe, elected prime Nobel laureate economist participation. Abe has asked political elites from prosecu- minister in September 2006, Joseph Stiglitz has stated that business executives to tion. Since 1981, no current found his term marred by Abenomics “may have quite a appoint at least one female or former member of the scandal and mismanagement. lot to teach” the United States executive per company, Politburo Standing Commit- He resigned just a year later in its own economic recovery. and he supports expanding tee, China’s top ruling council, for health reasons, which That’s a big improvement for the availability of child care. has faced criminal charges. many interpreted as a cover the country that was recently But that may change under for his incompetency. He was written off as the place where 40% Wang Qishan. leaving “Japan in disarray,” growth goes to die, and an the New York Times reported. almost superhuman turn- The amount Japan’s Wang ascended to the around for its leader. working-age population Standing Committee in No- In one of the greatest will decrease by 2050. vember 2012. As head of the political comebacks of the last ENRIQUE PEÑA NIETO Abe’s productivity-boosting Communist Party’s Central decade, Abe swept into office Commission for Discipline In- again in December 2012 with a FOR SHAKING UP MEXICO’S reforms are meant spection, Wang is tasked with resounding popular mandate: MORIBUND INSTITUTIONS. to address this looming fighting corruption, a center- His Liberal Democratic Party piece of President Xi Jinping’s won an astonishing 294 of the » PRESIDENT | MEXICO problem. administration and a massive 480 seats in the lower house After being elected by job in a country where the rule of parliament. Since then, a slim margin in 2012, 778% of man has long trumped the Abe’s popularity has skyrock- Mexico’s young president rule of law. eted, the legislature has come faced the difficult task of The tarif applied to rice out of gridlock, and Japan is bringing his country and his imports. Protectionism is In his first year, Wang has re-emerging as a player on the aging Institutional Revolu- one of many obstacles to criticized “hedonism” in the international stage. tionary Party into the 21st cen- Japan’s joining the Trans- Communist Party and cracked tury. “It is time to get Mexico Pacific Partnership trade down on alleged corruption Abe’s most important pact. Abe wants to open in the state-owned China policy contribution is a plan continued on page 80 up the Japanese economy, National Petroleum Corp. to resuscitate Japan’s econo- which will require him to Perhaps most importantly, my, dubbed “Abenomics.” It extract painful concessions though, Wang is said to have proposed scrapping the Stand- from either Japan’s ing Committee members’ farmers or his international exemption from investigation. Reuters reported in September negotiating partners. that Wang’s proposal had been approved; if so, the first inves- FOR SOURCING, PLEASE VISIT tigative target is likely Zhou FOREIGNPOLICY.COM Yongkang, a former Standing Committee member seen as the architect of many unpopu- lar and repressive policies. The world of elite Chinese FOREIGN POLICY 77

LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS DECISION-MAKERS THE KERRY DOCTRINE THE SECRETARY OF STATE’S GO-BIG-OR-GO-HOME FOREIGN POLICY. BY DOUGLAS BRINKLEY ILLUSTRATION BY BEN WISEMAN THE WORLD OF HIGH-STAKES Unlike his hyperkinetic celebrity the issues most likely to make a historic international diplomacy can be predecessor, Hillary Clinton, who many difference—that is, the world’s most rough and tumble, but it’s more often than believed was using Foggy Bottom as a festering problems—and doing so with not a procession of suits and summits, launching pad for another presidential direct, don’t-sweat-the-small-stuff diplo- protocol sessions and photo ops. And in run, Kerry looks more like a diplomat macy. It rests on leveraging long-term, this genteel old boys’ club, John Kerry in the old model. A patrician figure—and substantive relationships with fellow is a pro. The Yale-educated son of a for- the first white man to hold the position politicians around the world in order to eign-service officer, he served in the U.S. since Warren Christopher—he clearly employ diplomatic intervention as the Navy, became a veterans’ advocate, spent relishes the secretaryship and has made first choice, not the last resort. 28 years on the Senate Foreign Relations clear that he has no aspirations to further Committee—including four as chair- office. But if anyone had expected Kerry The media doesn’t often cover the Kerry man—and, of course, ran for president. to settle quietly into his sunset post, Doctrine in action—but that’s by design. Perhaps that’s why it surprised no one his first year has been nothing less than It’s a brand of diplomacy done face to when President Barack Obama picked shocking. Brazen even. face, in private, without media crews in him to become the 68th secretary of state tow. In an extension of the old Eastern this February. This boldness is at the heart of the Establishment ethos of statesmen Henry Kerry Doctrine, which involves tackling Stimson and George Marshall, Kerry 78 DECEMBER 2013

won’t betray trust: He believes that dip- As Abbas explained the issues of top con- THE KERRY DOCTRINE LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS DECISION-MAKERS lomatic options dry up when discretion cern to him—for instance, that no Israeli INVOLVES TACKLING breaks down. troops be allowed to stay in the Jordan THE ISSUES Valley, a policy that Netanyahu disagrees MOST LIKELY TO It was this doctrine that guided Kerry’s with—Kerry says he searched for possible MAKE A HISTORIC efforts to jump-start the Middle East peace solutions. DIFFERENCE— process, to the surprise of many, within THAT IS, THE weeks of becoming secretary of state. He kept the circle of participants in WORLD’S MOST Syria was in flames, Lebanon seemed on discussions very small to prevent leaks, FESTERING the verge of unraveling, and Egypt—the and he largely ignored the chattering PROBLEMS—AND guarantor of peace with Israel—was then classes—and much of official Washing- DOING SO WITH governed by the Muslim Brotherhood, ton—as they scoffed that it was too soon, DIRECT, DON’T- an Islamist party inimically opposed to that he was wasting time, that any talks SWEAT-THE-SMALL- the Jewish state. While others were talking were certain to fail. STUFF DIPLOMACY. about giving up on a turbulent and unpre- dictable region, Kerry was looking for a Eventually, the Kerry Doctrine paid stopped the United States from going to Camp David redux. off. Quietly, without fanfare or a Rose war in Syria—or at least saved the Garden address from Obama, Israeli and administration the ignominy of being told So what convinced Kerry he could Palestinian negotiators gathered in not to by Congress—and one that required pull this off? Long-standing relationships Washington in late July to begin the first bravado and bona fides that few states- with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin direct peace talks in almost three years. men have. Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Over the course of Only time will tell whether all of Then, as U.N. inspectors began the several conversations I had with Kerry Kerry’s spadework will produce a lasting dangerous work of dismantling Assad’s this fall, he stressed his ties to the players peace accord that resolves one of the most chemical weapons program, Kerry turned in the region. Kerry’s connection with intractable conflicts on Earth. But Kerry to Iran, which had—with the election of Netanyahu goes back a quarter-century. believes firmly in the power of diplo- Hassan Rouhani—seemingly offered an It began in Massachusetts in the 1980s, macy and in his ability to get people who olive branch to the West. Following Rou- when the prime minister was a private have the power to make decisions in a hani’s surprising visit to New York for the citizen in Boston and Kerry was in the room together—and then help them make U.N. General Assembly session, Kerry met early stages of his political career; Kerry those decisions. privately with top officials from Tehran recalls that the two would sometimes during September discussions in Geneva meet for meals. And Kerry was one of the Take Syria, which as of press time between Iran and the P5+1 (the five per- first American politicians to meet with was well along the path toward relin- manent U.N. Security Council members Abbas after his 2005 election. Kerry quishing, under U.N. supervision, plus Germany), opening the door to often tells of the Palestinian president its stock of chemical weapons. This, too, serious negotiations in November on saying, “I know what you want me to do: owes in part to the Kerry Doctrine. sanctions relief and nuclear inspections. You want me to disarm Hamas. How Of course, Kerry’s old friend Netanyahu am I supposed to do that when I have no While perhaps a jump of the gun, isn’t thrilled about Washington warming army, no rifles, no tanks?” Kerry’s remark at a September news con- to Tehran, but you can bet the secretary ference, at which he seemingly offered won’t leave it to a phone call to assuage As the newly minted secretary of state, the Syrian regime a reprieve from the the skeptic in Jerusalem. Kerry has parlayed these relationships Tomahawk missiles aimed at Damascus into serious diplomacy. Soon after Obama if President Bashar al-Assad gave up his It is risky stuff from someone few saw visited Israel in March 2013, Kerry flew to chemical weapons arsenal, reportedly as a risk-taker. And the outcomes, good or Jerusalem for a long dinner with Netanya- stemmed from ongoing conversations bad, will define Kerry’s legacy as a states- hu and his team, beginning a dialogue with Russian officials. In the days after man. Either way, he’s not stopping. that lasted several months. The Israelis the horrific Aug. 21 chemical weapons said that they would not allow a repeat of attack in Ghouta, Syria, Kerry says he Douglas Brinkley, a history professor at what happened when their forces with- spoke to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Rice University, is the author of Tour of drew from Lebanon and Gaza and that the Lavrov nine times on the phone, and it Duty: John Kerry and the Vietnam War. country’s legitimate security needs had was clear that Moscow was interested in to be met in any final status agreement. playing a role. Over many meetings, often between just him and Netanyahu, Kerry probed Israel’s After the Kremlin seized on Kerry’s questions and concerns, telling Netanya- comment at the news conference, the hu that Israel’s issues were America’s, too. secretary of state met Lavrov face to face in Geneva for formal talks. An agreement Kerry also met with Abbas through- was ultimately reached, however, during out 2013, often in extended one-on-one a private conversation by the pool at sessions. He says that he heard Abbas’s the InterContinental Hotel. “Lavrov insistence on having a viable state that was just out there, and I took advantage the Palestinian people could be proud of of it,” Kerry explained to me. “Some- and assured the president that this was times, things [like that] just work better a priority for the United States as well. than getting everybody in the room into formal mode.” It was a triumph of diplomacy that 79FOREIGN POLICY

LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS DECISION-MAKERS moving,” Enrique Peña Nieto Angela Merkel, the chancellor of Germany, has helped Europe rebound—slowly—from its financial crisis. Here, she meets with other said in his inaugural address. German politicians soon after winning re-election this year. MERKEL: SEAN GALLUP/GETTY IMAGES; ROUHANI: ATTA KENARE/AFP/GETTY IMAGES Less than a year into his HASSAN ROUHANI two have exchanged letters, and ANGELA MERKEL administration, Mexico’s they spoke on the phone while wheels are turning. Peña Nieto FOR OPENING A DOOR. Rouhani was in New York to FOR BEING THE DISCIPLINARIAN has embarked on a flurry of attend the opening session of THAT EUROPE NEEDS. reforms, including a new PRESIDENT | IRAN the U.N. General Assembly— police force designed to be less the first conversation between » CHANCELLOR | GERMANY corrupt and more difficult for » Hassan Rouhani’s first American and Iranian leaders in Between political drug cartels to infiltrate; an foray into U.S.-Iranian more than three decades. turmoil in Italy and education bill aimed at ending diplomacy was in 1986, when he Spain and a financial crisis in teachers unions’ unchecked and a group of moderate Iranian Rouhani’s diplomacy is Cyprus, economic recovery dominance over the Mexican government officials pressed not without risks. He avoided very well could have slipped school system; legislation to for the sale of weapons to Iran meeting Obama face to face through the fingers of Europe- weaken the power of the coun- in exchange for negotiating the at the United Nations because an leaders in 2013. But today, try’s telecommunications and release of American hostages of how it might have been the eurozone remains intact, tv conglomerates; and a plan being held by Hezbollah in received in Tehran. Even the in no small part thanks to the to let foreign companies partic- Lebanon. The secret dealings news of his phone call sparked unyielding, if controversial, ipate in Mexico’s oil industry, were eventually disclosed in protests from hard-liners upon leadership of German Chan- long a state monopoly. the Iran-Contra affair, but even his return: He was met by cellor Angela Merkel. the scandal did not diminish a crowd of supporters at the Peña Nieto’s accomplish- the sense among some U.S. airport, but others pelted his Critics argue that Merkel’s ments stem in large part from diplomats that Rouhani was a motorcade with eggs while insistence on economic the Pact for Mexico, an alliance moderate they could work with. shouting, “Death to America.” austerity—budget cuts and among the country’s three Many foreign critics, including other tough measures in main parties that the president Today, Rouhani, who took the Israeli government, remain European countries, particu- established on his first day in office in August, is once again wary of Rouhani’s intentions. larly those that have received power and that agreed to 95 trying to present himself as a Others wonder just how much bailouts—has done more to shared policy goals. True to his pragmatist, this time to U.S. authority he has to negotiate bleed her neighbors dry than word, Peña Nieto has conferred President Barack Obama. The the future of Iran’s nuclear help them. Yet Merkel’s firm regularly with the opposition program. After all, Rouhani approach to protecting the and given it real power in still answers to the country’s euro, in conjunction with forging legislation. Rivals have supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. policy moves by international regularly hashed out disagree- financial institutions and ments over dinners or even Nonetheless, Rouhani’s early the European Central Bank, over a bottle of Johnnie Walker charm offensive with the United has helped lift the continent Blue Label. States is a promising sign. out of the depths of crisis: The And in a relationship that hasn’t eurozone posted economic The president has also shown promise in decades, growth this year—the first subtly shifted Mexico’s overall that’s saying something. uptick since 2011. (For more strategy in the drug war. Unlike his predecessor, who spear- headed a massive military-led crackdown against the cartels, Peña Nieto has taken a more nuanced approach, coordinat- ing enforcement efforts across government institutions and emphasizing economic growth and foreign investment. This has strengthened ties with Washington, as U.S. officials have traveled to Mexico City to explore further trade and investment. “In the next months, we will be deciding what history we are going to write for the next decades,” Peña Nieto said in Mexico’s annual presidential address in September. But he is already writing—and the story is one of transformation. 80 DECEMBER 2013

on the eurozone’s recovery,LAGARDE: WIN MCNAMEE/GETTY IMAGES; DRAGHI: ERIC PIERMONT/AFP/GETTY IMAGES; BERNANKE: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/GETTY IMAGESCHRISTINE LAGARDE percent. In July, Draghi see Daniel Altman’s article on announced that the ecb p. 84.) LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS DECISION-MAKERSFOR GIVING EUROPE SOME TOUGH ECONOMIC LOVE.would maintain low interest rates indefinitely, a move In Berlin, meanwhile, MANAGING DIRECTOR, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND | WASHINGTON meant to reassure investors Merkel has successfully by guaranteeing that cheap fended off her political rivals In her role at the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde money is here to stay. He through a series of disarming is meting out tough love to Europe. backed this up by dropping policy maneuvers. She has The imf has now had a hand in four European bailouts, and Lagarde the benchmark interest rate dropped her opposition to didn’t shy away in 2013 from issuing stern warnings to economi- to 0.25 percent in November. gender quotas on corporate cally wayward countries like Greece and Portugal and other states He has even floated the idea boards, abandoned nuclear that haven’t done enough to jump-start growth and job creation. of setting a negative interest power, and embraced a flexi- The Economist, among others, praised her schoolmarmish tone. rate—that is, charging banks ble minimum wage regime— Lagarde also turned her criticism inward. In June, the imf issued a for holding excess reserves— all traditionally leftist posi- scathing internal review of its handling of the 2010 Greek bailout. in order to get capital off the tions that the right-of-center The report, made public after details leaked to the media, showed how sidelines. Merkel can now claim as her the imf bent its rules to push through the funding. While some of those own successes. In September, measures may have been necessary, Lagarde told the Wall Street With some European Germans re-elected Merkel, Journal, the report will nonetheless force the imf to reassess when economies rebounding and whom they refer to affection- and how it can make exceptions to its policies for lending money to others in free-fall, Draghi has ately as Mutti (“mommy”). countries in financial emergencies, and what role it should take in had mixed goals, and his job regional projects. has been made more complex With Merkel situated Lagarde is demonstrating that she can learn and teach at the by the need to stimulate comfortably in her third term same time, which many argue is just what Europe and the imf need. growth while staying inside in office, the obvious question That said, Lagarde knows she’s not always winning friends: “It’s the ecb’s strict mandate to now is how she will shepherd natural that the imf is perceived during its intervention as negative … ensure price stability. Unable a still-frail Europe toward because it always intervenes in a crisis situation,” Lagarde said in to pursue the kind of aggres- more robust growth. While June. But she’s hopeful that in time “the imf action in Europe will be sive bond-buying programs the answer remains opaque, appreciated.” championed by the U.S. expect Merkel to prioritize Federal Reserve, he has been survival—her own and the forced to fight with one hand eurzone’s. “I experienced the tied behind his back. Despite collapse of the German Demo- being hobbled, and even with cratic Republic,” she has said, a regional unemployment referring to the events of 1989 crisis yet to be tackled, the that enacted an enormous man known as “Super Mario” economic toll on her native has helped arrest Europe’s state. “I don’t want to see the economic collapse: The eu- eu falling behind.” rozone began posting growth again this summer. MARIO DRAGHI Central Bank (ecb), his about the danger of a strong BEN BERNANKE mantra has been “whatever euro sent it plunging in FOR DEFENDING THE it takes.” At times, the mere international markets, a FOR RATTLING THE MARKETS EUROZONE WITH ONE HAND promise of ecb intervention potential boon to European IN THE NAME OF RECOVERY. has been enough to calm exporters, though Draghi TIED BEHIND HIS BACK. market nerves. At other denied that he was trying CHAIRMAN, FEDERAL moments, Draghi has turned to manipulate the currency. PRESIDENT, EUROPEAN to the unprecedented or un- In May, he cut his bank’s » RESERVE | WASHINGTON usual to protect Europe. benchmark interest rate With his eight years »CENTRAL BANK | GERMANY to a then-record low of 0.5 Mario Draghi is the In February, his comments as chairman of the wily operator of Eu- U.S. Federal Reserve drawing rope’s economic recovery. As head of the European 81FOREIGN POLICY

LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS DECISION-MAKERS to a close, many observers CÉCILE KYENGE to triple Italy’s capacity to Before becoming Senegal’s prime minister, Aminata thought Ben Bernanke’s shelter refugees at immigra- KYENGE: GABRIEL BOUYS/AFP/GETTY IMAGES; MUJICA: JUAN MABROMATA/AFP/GETTY IMAGESboldest days were behind FOR COMBATING EUROPE’S tion centers. marijuana, an effort to stifle him. Having steered the PERSISTENT XENOPHOBIA. the power of drug traffickers American economy through These ideas have not been and a profound rejection of the worst financial crisis »INTEGRATION MINISTER | ITALY easy for many Italians to the U.S.-led drug war. “The since the Great Depression, As Italy’s first black swallow. But in pushing her consumption is already Bernanke hinted that the minister, Cécile agenda, Kyenge is holding happening.… It comes from Fed would wind down its Kyenge has endured unimag- out a promise to current and a clandestine market that by aggressive bond-buying inable abuse. She has been future generations of immi- nature has ferocious rules,” program. He was expected compared to a prostitute and grants. the 78-year-old Mujica, a to announce this “taper” in an orangutan; she has had onetime Marxist guerrilla September. bananas thrown at her and JOSÉ MUJICA who spent 14 years in jail, ar- bloody mannequins placed gued in defense of the mea- But Bernanke surprised outside halls where she’s FOR REDEFINING THE sure. In addition to changing pundits, traders, and mar- speaking; she has been told LATIN AMERICAN LEFT. the status quo in Uruguay, ket-watchers by announcing she’d make a great house- he hopes legalization will instead that bond-buying keeper. A local councilor PRESIDENT | URUGUAY spread to other countries. would continue at full speed. even suggested she ought to This sparked an instant be raped. » When Venezuelan Mujica’s controversial pol- backlash. “Ben Bernanke just President Hugo icy agenda, which has gar- pulled the biggest fake out Kyenge has handled this Chávez died in March, many nered him both detractors in the history of the market,” breathtaking racism, much assumed that the resurgent and admirers, has generated raged a Fortune article. One of it from fellow politicians, Latin American left would a new debate about the fu- market strategist said the with grace and equanim- die with the blustering pop- ture of Latin America’s left. Fed’s credibility was “in a ity—perhaps because it’s ulist in the red shirts. A few In breaking with Chávez’s shambles.” her job to ensure that Italy short months later, however, overt anti-Americanism and welcomes diversity. the movement has found a also with Latin America’s Bernanke may well have new, unlikely trailblazer in deep-seated social conserva- sacrificed years of care- Kyenge, who left the José Mujica, the president of tism, Mujica is pointing to a fully built trust with people Democratic Republic of the Uruguay. possible path forward for his working in the markets. Congo three decades ago, is comrades. He argued, however, that his Italy’s integration minis- Mujica, a modest man decision was based—as it ter. In a country that has frequently called the world’s was always going to be—on struggled to come to terms “poorest president,” who economic data: Unemploy- with a growing population donates 90 percent of his ment remained too high for of immigrants, her ap- salary to charity and enjoys comfort, the housing market pointment has value for its chrysanthemum farming, still looked fragile, and fiscal symbolism alone. But the has engineered an exper- belt-tightening in Washing- soft-spoken Kyenge is also iment in social liberalism ton was putting an already pursuing an ambitious leg- without precedent in Latin shaky recovery at risk. islative agenda, including a America. In late 2012, Uru- law that would make it easier guay legalized abortions This careful, informed for foreigners’ children to during the first trimester, a explanation was in and of become Italian citizens. radical departure from Latin itself an example of prog- Moreover, in the wake of an America’s famously strict ress. Bernanke is known for October shipwreck off the abortion laws. Then, in May, being far more transparent Italian island of Lampedusa Uruguay endorsed same- than his predecessor, and as that killed hundreds who sex marriage. To complete John Authers wrote in the had left Africa for Europe, the trifecta, the country Financial Times, “Not long Kyenge has called for Italy to later moved to become ago, the Fed could make approach immigration with the world’s first to legalize decisions as big as this one less “repression” and more the production and sale of with no warning or explana- “acceptance.” She promised tion. Traders complaining that the Fed has not held their hand through the process sound like spoiled children.” In defying expectations, Bernanke did what he be- lieved was right and prudent. As a result, he’s ending his Fed tenure with a bang. 82 DECEMBER 2013

MAMADOU TOURƒ BEHAN/AFP/GETTY IMAGESTouré served as justice minister. Here she attends an opposition rally in Dakar in June 2012. AMINATA TOURÉ FRANÇOIS HOLLANDE FOR KEEPING THE FLAME JUAN MANUEL SANTOS LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS DECISION-MAKERSthorny, and many ColombiansFOR ARTICULATING AOF HUMANITARIAN remain skeptical that talks will PROGRESSIVE VISION OF INTERVENTIONISM ALIVE. FOR RISKING EVERYTHING TO bear fruit. According to a recent AFRICAN LEADERSHIP. PRESIDENT | FRANCE END HIS COUNTRY’S CIVIL WAR. poll by Ipsos Public Affairs, more than half of Colombians PRIME MINISTER | SENEGAL » “We have won this » PRESIDENT | COLOMBIA expect the talks to fail, and 60 war; we have chased When Juan Manuel percent don’t want to see San- » Aminata Touré is out the terrorists,” French Santos was elected pres- tos re-elected next year. quickly rising through President François Hollande ident of Colombia in 2010, he the ranks of Africa’s most said in September, at the turned more than a few heads Still, Santos has pushed progressive government lead- inauguration of Malian Presi- by extending an olive branch to ahead with negotiations, and ers. A onetime soccer player, dent Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. the country’s notorious Marxist he has even hinted that his Touré built a career in human It was eight months after guerrilla group, the Revolution- government could begin talks rights activism. She worked French forces had intervened ary Armed Forces of Colombia. with Colombia’s second-largest for the U.N. Population Fund, in Mali with airstrikes and a After nearly 50 years of an guerrilla group, the National advocating gender equality ground assault against Isla- insurgency that has claimed Liberation Army. and women’s health. Then, she mist militants who had seized roughly 220,000 lives, Santos battled corruption and abuse much of the country’s north. launched formal talks with the If he fails to deliver, Santos as Senegal’s justice minister. terrorist organization in Octo- will almost certainly lose In early 2013, for instance, Whether the French have ber 2012. In 2013, the two sides his re-election bid. Success, she brought Karim Wade, the indeed achieved a lasting announced agreements on land however, could bring peace to son of a former president, to victory or the Islamists have reform and a framework for reb- Colombia for the first time in justice for siphoning money simply melted away to fight els to participate in politics, two half a century. from the government, and she another day, the decision to items on a six-point agenda. worked to establish a special deploy troops was an important “War is far more spectacu- tribunal to pursue war crimes moment in the fight against Resistance to Santos’s peace lar than peace,” he wrote in a charges against Chad’s former Islamic extremism. It was also offensive is growing, however. recent op-ed in the Wall Street president, Hisséne Habré. important for France—not only The remaining issues on the Journal. “Peace, on the other because Mali was once a French negotiation docket—including hand, requires patience, discre- When she was appointed colony, but because the episode disarmament and compensa- tion and determination in the prime minister by President solidified Hollande’s reputation tion for victims of violence—are face of seemingly insurmount- Macky Sall in September, as an interventionist. able odds.” Touré immediately articulated her vision for an inclusive and The Socialist’s embrace just Senegal. Her list of cabinet of military force is a striking appointees includes Sidiki feature of his still-young pres- Kaba, a human rights activist, idency, and it has continued as her replacement at the Jus- since the Mali intervention. tice Ministry—a controversial Hollande has long been an ag- pick because of Kaba’s support gressive proponent of arming for decriminalizing homo- Syrian rebels, and when world sexuality. In late October, in a leaders waffled on whether to speech before Senegal’s legis- strike Syrian President Bashar lature, Touré highlighted the al-Assad for using chemical importance of strengthening weapons against his own the country’s economy, tack- people in August, Hollande ling poverty, and empowering vehemently supported action. women and girls. His hawkishness has not As one observer noted always enjoyed support among in the Guardian, Touré’s the French. The public backed appointment was a feat in and the Mali intervention, but not of itself—she is a “feminist, Hollande’s approach to Syria. women’s rights, reproductive rights, human rights activist” Still, at a time when “hu- in a country where only one manitarian intervention” and other woman has ever been “responsibility to protect” are prime minister and where embattled concepts, Hollande women, as well as minorities, has bucked the trend: He has the disabled, and other groups, kept alive the idea that the in- face widespread discrimina- ternational community must tion. Her Senegalese support- not stand idly by in the face of ers expect there is much more aggression from dictators and to come. terrorists. 83FOREIGN POLICY

LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS DECISION-MAKERS NO QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT on average, grown at about the same rate. The euro may have aided economic THE EUROZONE LIVED TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY. BUT A NEW BATTLE IS BREWING. integration in other ways, but by these two primary measures, its effect has been BY DANIEL ALTMAN Budget deficits, which averaged 6.5 per- negligible. cent of gdp in 2009, are now at 3.7 percent. » IS THERE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE Public debts have risen substantially, but If economic cycles in the eurozone fail Chunnel? Five years after the glob- they are still controllable in non-bailout to synchronize, its downturns and reces- al financial crisis kicked off, the eurozone countries. And the International Monetary sions will continue to be unduly deep. is finally starting to regain its economic Fund expects gdp to grow in every euro- The reason is simple: Countries that use footing. Budgets are being balanced, zone country except Cyprus and Slovenia the euro can’t unilaterally devalue their growth is returning, and questions about next year. currencies in a bid to attract investment countries leaving the currency union have and boost exports. As a result, the return ebbed. Yet despite a positive outlook for The medium term, however, is a to growth and job creation takes longer. the short term, the eurozone still hasn’t different story. High unemployment in Making matters worse, the European resolved the issues that cloud its future as the eurozone and the European Union as Union’s new, stricter fiscal rules—designed an economic bloc. a whole has inflicted damage that may in part to protect the euro—will make take many years to repair. The labor force it harder for countries to stimulate their The eurozone arguably turned the in a country doesn’t always bounce back economies with government spending. corner in July 2012, when Mario Draghi, when economic growth returns. People the president of the European Central who have been jobless for years may be Unfortunately, synchronization is where Bank, pledged “to do whatever it takes to too discouraged to look for work again. the long-term outlook for the eurozone is preserve the euro.” Not only would the The return of growth may be accompanied the blackest. In terms of future economic bank keep short-term interest rates low, by demands for higher wages among the development, its members are diverging. but it would also bolster the finances of employed, narrowing the scope for new Some boast entrepreneurial environments member countries by buying their bonds hiring. And the skills of the unemployed for business that are ripe with innovation, and thus reducing the interest they paid may have become obsolete during their while others continue to struggle with on their debts. long spells of joblessness. As Draghi and bureaucracy and corruption. Some have others have suggested, young people may relatively young populations and manage- The markets took Draghi at his word, be at a particular disadvantage in such a able debts, while others are aging fast and and confidence in the euro and the eu- difficult labor market. They have little or staggering under the burden of existing rozone began to strengthen. Meanwhile, no experience, and their education may borrowing and pension liabilities. It does Spain cleaned up its banks and launched not have given them the skills employers not help that these differences largely a reform of its public sector; Portugal are seeking. follow geographical lines. survived the worst of its austerity program; and Ireland became the poster child for Even if the eurozone survives these Given these fundamentals, the econ- fiscal and financial turnaround. Even dark portents, there is no guarantee that omies of the eurozone countries will not Italy showed signs of exiting its two-year the problems of the past several years fall magically into lock step merely recession, provided it could achieve a won’t recur. This is because the fundamen- because they share a single currency. If measure of political stability. tal problem with the euro has not been workers could move easily among them, solved: A single monetary policy is still not there might be some hope. People would Indeed, for much of 2013, the eurozone appropriate for all the countries that use flee weak economies and flock to strong seemed well on its way to recovery. Its the currency, and it may never be. ones, helping to balance wages and overall recession ended over the summer, unemployment across the eurozone. But and at the time of this writing, the euro’s This is mainly because the economic even with nominally free migration within trade-weighted value had risen more than cycles of the members have failed to the European Union, barriers including 8 percent since Draghi’s speech. Only synchronize. Although the variance in licensing, languages, and prejudice still Greece has continued to limp along, barely growth rates among eurozone members exist. And with anti-immigrant sentiment satisfying the terms of its existing bailout came down in the previous decade, having risen in tandem with unemploy- and possibly heading for another one. since the global financial crisis it has ment in some countries, the potential returned to pre-euro levels. saving grace of the eurozone is also one Still, it’s hard to find anyone these days of its most controversial attributes. who thinks Greece or any other country Enhanced trade was supposed to aid will leave the eurozone soon. Draghi’s synchronization, but the eurozone’s The recent crises among eu members October visit to the United States was members haven’t performed any better had diverse causes, from bank failures something of a victory lap; at a speech in than the three other eu countries—Britain, to low tax collections. Taken as a whole, New York he said, “[The] euro area has Denmark, and Sweden—that opted not to however, the crises served as a late alarm a strategy to return to sustainable growth join the currency union. Since 2001, when bell from a system that was broken and employment, and that strategy is there were 12 eu countries in the eurozone, from the beginning. It’s still a long way actually being executed.” All policymakers the two groups’ exports within the eu have, from being fixed. need to do, he said, is to “stay the course.” Daniel Altman, a columnist at In the short term, he might be right. ForeignPolicy.com, teaches economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and is chief economist of Big Think. 84 DECEMBER 2013

CTHHE ALLENGERS Inertia is as powerful a force in society and politics as it is in physics, and efecting change can be demanding and discouraging. But that hasn’t stopped these Global Thinkers, who have found innovative ways to shake up the status quo. Of course, challenging the establishment does not automatically put one on the side of angels—the entrants in this category have earned inclusion for specific eforts, not their overall worldviews. Most, however, are broadly pushing the powers that be toward justice. They have sought to revive decrepit institutions, protect the rights of ordinary citizens from predatory governments, and expose the laziness that often supports conventional wisdom. Their eforts have made them forces to be reckoned with. 85FOREIGN POLICY

LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS CHALLENGERS POPE FRANCIS remembers and returns to its RAND PAUL ideological roots, emphasiz- POPE: BUDA MENDES/GETTY IMAGES; PAUL: WIN MCNAMEE/GETTY IMAGES FOR BRINGING THE ing the importance of service FOR CHALLENGING AMERICA’S HAWKS—IN BOTH PARTIES. CATHOLIC CHURCH INTO and kindness. He has spoken frequently of a church that SENATOR | WASHINGTON THE 21ST CENTURY. offers succor, not judgment; that exists to help the world, In March, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky embarked on the » POPE | VATICAN CITY not to perpetuate its own longest talking filibuster the U.S. Senate had seen in decades Did the Catholic car- rules and rituals; and that to protest the Obama administration’s use of drones, which he dinals know what they ensures its clergy are pastors, warned could be used to target U.S. citizens at home. The 13-hour were in for when they handed not bureaucrats. (For more on event was quintessential Paul: The upstart libertarian, already a relatively unknown Argen- Pope Francis, see E.J. Dionne considered a candidate for the 2016 Republican presidential tine, Jorge Mario Bergoglio, Jr.’s article on p. 88.) nomination, described his stance as a principled defense of the keys to the Vatican at the constitutional rights. “I really don’t think [Barack Obama] would 2013 papal conclave? Proba- Some of Pope Francis’s drop a Hellfire missile on a cafe [in the United States] … but it really bly not. critics—despite his sky-high bothers me he won’t say that he won’t,” he explained in the filibuster. approval ratings, they do Perhaps most remarkably, Paul got results. With polls showing Since becoming pontiff, exist—say a tonal shift is that Americans supported Paul’s stance, Attorney General Eric the 76-year-old Pope Francis one thing, but real, tangible Holder sent a letter to the senator affirming for the first time that has been something of a reform at the opaque and os- the White House does not believe it has the right to use drones to kill one-man whirlwind, seeking sified Vatican is quite anoth- Americans not engaged in combat on U.S. soil. to bring vigor and relevance er. Still, the papacy remains Paul sees the victory as just a first step in a broader quest to back to a church seen as an influential bully pulpit, reimagine the basic foundations of U.S. foreign policy. His neo- increasingly out of touch and Pope Francis appears isolationist views have led him to butt heads against many in his with the world. Challenging determined to use it for all own party. On Syria, for instance, Paul opposes military strikes, and his conservative base, he it’s worth. The world, in turn, he blasted U.S. plans to aid the opposition as “funding … the allies made headlines in Septem- is paying attention. of al Qaeda.” Such comments have earned him the ire of Republican ber with the publication of hawks like Sen. John McCain, who dubbed Paul a “wacko bird.” Paul, a wide-ranging interview ALEXEY NAVALNY however, doesn’t seem too concerned. He recently picked another with La Civiltà Cattolica in fight over the National Security Agency’s massive data-collection which he said the Catholic FOR DEFYING THE DARK HEART efforts, highlighting the tension between his party’s ethos of small hierarchy is too focused on OF THE RUSSIAN STATE. government and its acceptance of a surveillance state. “small-minded rules” when it Win or lose, it’s clear that Paul isn’t going to back down from his comes to issues like abortion ANTI-CORRUPTION ACTIVIST, radical, party-shaking positions anytime soon. As he said at the and same-sex marriage. And beginning of his filibuster, “I will speak until I can no longer speak.” the media can’t seem to get » POLITICIAN | RUSSIA enough of the many small Arguably no one in gestures of humility and pop- Russia has done more ulism that have so endeared than Alexey Navalny to expose the new pope to his flock: He the corruption of President shunned the popemobile for Vladimir Putin’s regime. So a used 1984 Renault, person- it was painfully ironic for the ally canceled his newspaper 37-year-old activist when, in subscription in Buenos Aires July, he found himself standing after being elected, and before a court facing trumped- encouraged Argentines to up charges of embezzlement. celebrate his election not Yet Navalny was defiant: “As if by flying to Rome but by this can change all that I write donating their plane fare to about the swindlers who really the poor. steal billions from all of us,” he said before the court. Then, Pope Francis’s broad prior to being sentenced to a vision, it seems, is one in five-year prison term, Navalny which the Catholic Church entered Moscow’s mayoral race to challenge the Putin-backed incumbent. Freed pending an appeal, he campaigned on a platform of, among other goals, improving Moscow’s business climate, and he finished sec- ond in the polls. With a rabid public fol- 86 DECEMBER 2013

LAPID: DAVID VAAKNIN/AFP/GETTY IMAGES; KEJRIWAL: SAJJAD HUSSAIN/AFP/GETTY IMAGES lowing and a growing base in acting and has written ARVIND KEJRIWAL INDIA’S of political support, Navalny books, tv shows, and plays. FOR LEADING A CORRUPTION LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS CHALLENGERSis the vanguard of Russia’s He has been a newspaper CAMPAIGN TO CLEAN UP opposition, and he has helped columnist and editor, as well BY THE inject vitality into the country’s as the host of Israel’s answer INDIA’S CAPITAL. NUMBERS protest movement. When he to 60 Minutes. In 2012, was found guilty this summer, however, Lapid left all that »FOUNDER, AAM AADMI PARTY | INDIA $462$ thousands flooded the streets to stake out a space on the Arvind Kejriwal is out BILLION of Moscow in protest, issuing center-left of Israeli politics, to ignite a revolution. a highly public—and highly with the establishment of The founder of the new The amount that corruption, embarrassing—warning to the his Yesh Atid (“There’s a Aam Aadmi Party (aap)—or including bribery and Kremlin. (His sentence was Future”) party. His rise since “Common Man’s Party”— suspended in October, but has been meteoric. Kejriwal is leading an influ- kickbacks, has cost India investigators later brought new ential campaign to rid New since its independence. charges of money laundering Yesh Atid contested its Delhi of corruption and refo- against him, and he is prohib- first election in January 2013 cus government attention on 54% ited from running in the next and pushed the campaign the needs of citizens. Known presidential election.) conversation to include not for his no-nonsense oratory, The proportion of the only matters of peace and he has also staged protests population that pays bribes To be sure, Navalny is far security, but also socioeco- and hunger strikes, and to access public services. from a universally loved figure. nomic and group privilege. he has leveled corruption During his mayoral campaign, For instance, Lapid chal- charges against some polit- 62% he sometimes blamed Russia’s lenged Israel’s powerful ical heavyweights, includ- problems on its immigrant Orthodox bloc—a practice ing the son-in-law of Sonia The proportion that pays population. Some observers Yesh Atid politicians have Gandhi, head of India’s them to the police. have also speculated that the continued in office, cracking ruling Congress party. Kremlin is positioning him as down on military service 30% an acceptable, if marginalized, exemptions and instituting India’s elite have good opponent in order to claim at education standards for reason to be worried about The proportion of least the semblance of demo- Orthodox schools. Lapid also Kejriwal: The country India’s state and federal cratic legitimacy. urged a moderate approach was rocked by a series of lawmakers facing criminal to the peace process and anti-corruption protests charges, many for serious But that thinking is predi- advocated for a two-state just two years ago, and in cated on the idea that Russians solution—“a divorce agree- a poll released in July, 71 ofenses like rape, will continue to tacitly accept ment we can live with,” as he percent of respondents said kidnapping, and murder. a state built on corruption and told voters. corruption is getting worse. support Putin and his cronies. Unsurprisingly, several 13.9$ If the backing that Navalny’s Despite reports that Israe- high-profile politicians have MILLION work has gained so far is any lis were shifting to the right, filed lawsuits against Kejri- indicator, that assumption may Lapid’s campaign struck a wal, and he also claims that The number of modern be crumbling. chord, especially with young state intelligence services slaves in India; corruption people. Yesh Atid came are snooping on his private is cited as one of the main YAIR LAPID in second to the slate of communications. reasons that India has the candidates presented jointly highest number of slaves of FOR APPEALING TO ISRAEL’S by the Likud and Yisrael Unfazed, Kejriwal is taking POLITICAL CENTER. Beiteinu parties, an outcome his anti-corruption fight to any country. that earned Lapid the role of the ballot box. The aap will FINANCE MINISTER | ISRAEL finance minister. run candidates for all 70 FOR SOURCING, PLEASE VISIT seats in the Delhi Legislative FOREIGNPOLICY.COM » At 50, Yair Lapid has It’s evident that Lapid, Assembly in early December, already had several whom the Jerusalem Post and given the resonance of 87FOREIGN POLICY careers. He has dabbled named the world’s most the party’s message at the lo- influential Jew this May, cal level, the aap could end has big aspirations. In his frequent media interviews, continued on page 90 he seems as passionate about foreign policy as he is about economics, and it’s widely expected that he’ll try for the prime minister’s office again. For Lapid, then, politics might just be the career that sticks.

LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS CHALLENGERS RESURRECTION POPE FRANCIS BRINGS THE FRESHNESS OF THE GOSPEL TO THE CATHOLIC CHURCH. BY E.J. DIONNE JR. ILLUSTRATION BY JIMMY TURRELL » FOR ALL THOSE ASSESSING THE MEANING of Pope Francis’s rise and its everywhere provides a clue as to how inspire a vibrant faith. someone who has held the papal office Francis is orthodox, all right. He has implications for one of the world’s most only since March has already revolution- reasserted the church’s “clear” teaching on abortion and said he could not do powerful transnational institutions, the ized—there is no other word—the world’s otherwise. “I am a son of the church,” he explained. But he is an orthodox searcher pontiff has already offered a warning. “If view of the Roman Catholic Church. At who wants to share the journey with any- one of goodwill (including nonbelievers) one has the answers to all the questions,” a time when religion has come to seem who takes the quest for truth seriously. “Who am I to judge?” he replied when he said in an August interview with La synonymous with dogmatic certainty and, asked his view of those who are gay. For Civiltà Cattolica that has become a kind of in the eyes of many secular observers, manifesto for his papacy, “that is the proof fundamentalism, here is arguably the that God is not with him.” most visible religious leader in the world That delightful rebuke to know-it-alls asserting that questions, not answers, can 88 DECEMBER 2013

so many, judging is what a pope does for in English in the Jesuit magazine Ameri- AT A TIME WHEN LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS CHALLENGERS a living. Francis did not change church ca. “I have not spoken much about these RELIGION HAS COME TO doctrine with his statement. He merely things, and I was reprimanded for that. SEEM SYNONYMOUS changed virtually everything about how But when we speak about these issues, WITH DOGMATIC we see the role of a supreme pontiff. we have to talk about them in a context.… CERTAINTY AND, IN The dogmatic and moral teachings of the THE EYES OF MANY A few things are already obvious. As church are not all equivalent. SECULAR OBSERVERS, the first non-European pope in over 1,200 FUNDAMENTALISM, years and the first from the global south, “The church’s pastoral ministry,” he HERE IS ARGUABLY Francis speaks in decidedly different went on, “cannot be obsessed with the THE MOST VISIBLE accents about capitalism and globaliza- transmission of a disjointed multitude of RELIGIOUS LEADER IN tion. It should not be forgotten that both doctrines to be imposed insistently.… We THE WORLD ASSERTING John Paul ii and Benedict xvi were highly have to find a new balance; otherwise even THAT QUESTIONS, NOT critical of unbridled capitalism. But they the moral edifice of the church is likely ANSWERS, CAN INSPIRE still discussed the market in terms largely to fall like a house of cards, losing the A VIBRANT FAITH. set by the debates in Europe and the freshness and fragrance of the Gospel.” United States. The economic and political Francis seems to want to move his church into a model of a kind of mystical humility visions of the pope from Poland and the outward, from the nave of a dark cathedral that combines a spirit of moderation pope from Germany could not help but to the bright garden outside its doors. with intellectual openness and a radical be shaped by their reactions to the bitter understanding of what the primacy of experience of Soviet communism. So their Again, the pope is not changing church the spiritual over the material means. strong calls for social justice were always doctrine. But a major change in emphasis Benedict issued a stern warning against a tempered by warnings against the politics itself has profound implications. “dictatorship of relativism.” Francis seems of class struggle. worried about something else entirely. Equally profound was his choice to Francis is necessarily more radical in canonize Pope John xxiii, the reformist “If the Christian is a restorationist, a his preaching about the poor and the pope of the Second Vatican Council, legalist, if he wants everything clear and shortcomings of global capitalism because alongside Pope John Paul ii. It was the safe, then he will find nothing,” he has he addresses the rest of the world from unifying act of a superb politician, and it said. “Tradition and memory of the past the perspective of the south and from the sent a powerful message. It applied to the must help us to have the courage to open experience of those suffering from deep church itself one of his dicta: “The thing up new areas to God. Those who today poverty. the church needs most today is the ability always look for disciplinarian solutions, to heal wounds and to warm the hearts of those who long for an exaggerated doctri- Thus has Francis declared: “While the faithful.” nal ‘security,’ those who stubbornly try to the income of a minority is increasing recover a past that no longer exists—they exponentially, that of the majority is Rapid sainthood for John Paul ii was have a static and inward-directed view crumbling.” Thus has he condemned “an inevitable, given the widespread devotion of things. In this way, faith becomes an economic system which has at its center to him in many corners of the church, not ideology among other ideologies. I have an idol called money” and “the dictator- simply in its conservative wing. But by lift- a dogmatic certainty: God is in every ship of an economy which is faceless and ing up John xxiii as well, Francis is telling person’s life.” lacking any truly humane goal.” Thus has Catholics to gladly accept his legacy—and he linked his words with a series of actions the legacy of the council’s embrace of Thus is his one “dogmatic certainty”—a eschewing a regal style of living to under- democracy, religious freedom, and the thoroughly undogmatic universalism score his commitment to building “a poor centrality of the Catholic laity. If some more interested in shattering barriers than church for the poor.” conservative voices in the church have erecting them. It’s a very new approach sought to play down just how important to religion in the modern world, rooted in A pope who sees lifting up the poor and the council was in opening Catholicism to the oldest of doctrines. moralizing an unjust economy as primary the modern world, Francis is welcoming objectives inevitably views the culture its dialectical mission: that modernity E.J. Dionne Jr. is a columnist for the wars that so engage Catholic conserva- has lessons to teach Catholics, even as the Washington Post, a senior fellow at the tives, particularly in the United States, church should be critical of modernity’s Brookings Institution, and a professor as a peculiar rock on which to build the failings. at the McCourt School of Public Policy at church’s public ministry. This view has Georgetown University. brought him criticism from the Catholic Much is expected of this pope: serious right, as he has acknowledged. But putting reform of the Vatican, a substantial the culture wars in their place is consis- decentralization of authority, a definitive tent with a papacy that finds its inspi- reckoning with the pedophilia scandal, ration outside the ongoing arguments and, among Western Catholics especial- among liberals and traditionalists in the ly, a broadening of the “opportunities developed world. for a stronger presence of women in the church,” as Francis himself has put it. “We cannot insist only on issues related to abortion, gay marriage, and the use of In global terms, however, here may be contraceptive methods. This is not pos- the central paradox of his papacy: As the sible,” he said in one of the most widely leader of a church that has so long been cited parts of his interview, as published viewed as dogmatic, hierarchical, and traditional, Francis bids to turn himself 89FOREIGN POLICY

up being a kingmaker. EvenLEADING GLOBAL THINKERS CHALLENGERS Sheila Dikshit, Delhi’s current chief minister and Kejriwal’s EPA/ALKIS KONSTANTINIDIS main rival, has admitted that the anti-corruption crusader “has caught the imagination of people.” (The aap is also ex- pected to contest India’s gen- eral election next summer.) The aap will appear on December’s ballot next to a picture of a broom. “The broom,” says Kejriwal, “will become our weapon.” NIGEL FARAGE Greece’s Alexis Tsipras (center) has emerged as a staunch critic of European Union-imposed austerity measures. LEADER, UK INDEPENDENCE Prime Minister David Cam- THOMAS HERNDON, ancy and told Herndon to go PARTY | BRITAIN eron’s tack to the right. In MICHAEL ASH, back to the source. So Herndon January, the prime minister ROBERT POLLIN contacted Reinhart and Rogoff ALEXIS TSIPRAS announced that he would and asked for the data they had seek concessions from the FOR DISCOVERING A used to draw their conclusions. LEADER, SYRIZA PARLIAMENTARY eu on repatriating powers WHOPPER OF AN ERROR. What he found was astounding: GROUP | GREECE and present a referendum by Because of a Microsoft Excel er- 2017 on British membership »GRADUATE STUDENT, PROFESSORS | ror, Reinhart and Rogoff—both FOR ATTACKING THE EUROPEAN in the union. AMHERST, MASS. Harvard University profes- ESTABLISHMENT FROM THE For a time, many sors—had omitted key coun- Tsipras, with his Syriza considered the work of terexamples in their study. »RIGHT AND THE LEFT. party, has created a polit- Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Additionally, they excluded ex- Nigel Farage is a ical movement out of the Rogoff, two highly respected amples of economies that saw right-wing populist same populist impulse and economists, to be the gospel. high growth under conditions in Britain. Alexis Tsipras is a used it to power a resurgent Their 2010 study on how of high debt relative to gdp. radical left-winger in Greece. left-wing agenda. Tsipras, economic growth slows during Lastly, the professors employed Together, they represent the the foremost critic of the eu- times of too-high debt provid- an unconventional method of two most influential strands backed austerity budgets that ed the intellectual foundation weighting their averages that of heterodox political have gutted Greece, wants to for austerity programs that skewed economic growth in thought in 2013 Europe. keep his country in the eu slashed budgets and social their model downward. while pursuing a gentler path spending around the world, Farage’s uk Independence toward economic reform. most notably in Europe, in When Herndon and his Party has recently shot up in He has traveled to European an effort to bring countries’ professors published their popularity in Britain thanks capitals to seek debt forgive- expenditures closer to their findings, a firestorm ensued. to a simple argument: The ness and a Marshall Plan-like incomes. “Is the evidence for austerity British people never agreed stimulus package. He has based on an Excel spreadsheet to hand over vast powers also recently taken to arguing Problem being, they were error?” the Washington Post to the European Union and that Germany, the austerity wrong. asked. Not long after, Herndon are now disgusted with the enforcer in chief, owes Ath- appeared on The Colbert Re- bloated, sclerotic body in ens reparations for World War As part of his graduate port, where he was introduced Brussels. Although Farage’s ii-era abuses. Although un- coursework at the University as the “grad student who had conservative, often anti- popular in Berlin, it’s another of Massachusetts, Amherst, fiscal conservatives’ panties in immigrant politics are arrow in Tsipras’s quiver for Thomas Herndon endeavored an economic bunch.” Rein- distasteful to many, he’s use in the anti-austerity fight. to replicate the findings of hart and Rogoff eventually right on this point: The Reinhart and Rogoff’s work, published an embarrassing British people never really If Europe’s leaders hope to but try as he might, he couldn’t correction. had a say in their country’s resolve the eurozone crisis match their results. Frustrat- embrace of the eu. So Farage in 2014, they’ll have to find ed, he took his findings to It just goes to show that, has opened a fundamental a way to take the sting out of his professors, Michael Ash sometimes, it’s worth doing debate: Does Britain want these two men’s politics. and Robert Pollin, who also your homework. to be part of Europe or couldn’t figure out the discrep- staunchly independent? This debate, as well as the fear that Farage will peel off crucial votes from the governing Conservative Party, has been evident in 90 DECEMBER 2013

JOKO: OLIVIA RONDONUWU/AFP/GETTY IMAGES; MORSHAKOVA: COURTESY IMAGE TAMARA MORSHAKOVA JOKO WIDODO Indonesia’s 2014 presidential Graeber and James C. Scott are FOR STANDING HER GROUND race. An August poll showed looking far outside the political LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS CHALLENGERS AGAINST THE KREMLIN. FOR GOVERNING BY that he is far more popular mainstream for remedies: FORMER JUDGE | RUSSIA HITTING THE STREETS. than other expected challeng- They’re looking to anarchism. ers, including former Presi- » Russian President Vlad- GOVERNOR OF JAKARTA | INDONESIA dent Megawati Sukarnoputri, The authors, respectively, of imir Putin has called the leader of Joko’s own the recent books The Democra- Tamara Morshakova “the best » Joko Widodo is a political party. cy Project: A History, a Crisis, lawyer in the country.” But this huge Metallica fan. a Movement and Two Cheers hasn’t stopped his adminis- The 52-year-old governor of Joko might be hard to beat for Anarchism: Six Easy Pieces tration from targeting her in Jakarta and likely presiden- if he runs, and there’s hope on Autonomy, Dignity, and what some have called a “witch tial candidate was part of the that if he takes the presidency, Meaningful Work and Play, hunt.” fist-pumping audience at one he will repeat the good work have created a 21st-century of the band’s recent concerts he has done in his other jobs. manifesto for anarchism. And Morshakova is a former and likes to throw up devil “[He’s] the only leader who it isn’t about advocating vio- judge on Russia’s Constitution- horns during news confer- can make me amazed,” reads lence—it’s about building new, al Court and a onetime member ences. But it’s for other reasons a testimonial that helped Joko radical forms of political and of Putin’s Council for Civil that he really breaks the mold place third this January in the social engagement. Society and Human Rights. of Indonesian politics. World Mayor Prize, an inter- Long vocal in the fight against national award handed out by Graeber, who teaches at the corruption and the push for po- Unlike many of his mon- the City Mayors Foundation, London School of Economics, lice reform in Russia, she came eyed peers, who hail from an urban-affairs think tank, was a principal organizer of under increasing fire in 2013 for powerful political dynasties “the only leader that when I Occupy Wall Street, and his her involvement in the widely and have little contact with remember him, I feel excited book assesses that movement’s covered “case of experts”—al- the common man, Joko clings and have new hope.” failures and successes. He also legations that a group of legal to his humble beginnings. He articulates how to think like professionals received foreign was born poor and now makes DAVID GRAEBER an anarchist in a historical funds to promote liberalization a point of regularly walking moment defined by neoliberal and advocate against the con- his city’s most impoverished ANTHROPOLOGIST, ACTIVIST | BRITAIN economics. “[M]ost Americans viction of businessman Mikhail neighborhoods, talking to have been taught since a very Khodorkovsky. citizens about their concerns. JAMES C. SCOTT young age to have extremely His biggest public projects— limited political horizons,” he This summer, Morshakova dredging a river to prevent POLITICAL SCIENTIST | NEW HAVEN, CONN. writes. Anarchism “is a matter was called in for two days of flooding, for instance—are of taking … core democratic questioning by the notorious unglamorous but practical, FOR SHOWING WHAT ANARCHISM principles to their logical Investigative Committee, the and they’ve earned him the conclusions.” Scott, a political Russian equivalent of the goodwill of his constituents. »CAN OFFER THE WORLD. scientist at Yale University, fbi. Another figure in the He has become so popular that From Egypt, where a offers instructions for using the “case of experts,” prominent his presence in public some- military coup ousted “anarchist squint,” a method of economist Sergei Guriev, fled times incites “jokowimania,” the first freely elected pres- illuminating the ways in which Russia in early 2013, fearing in which he is swarmed by ident, to the United States, disorder already explains and repercussions. But Morsha- people hoping to touch him. where the government shut enriches the world. For in- kova is standing strong at down over partisan bickering, stance, surveying a playground home and continuing to speak Before becoming governor 2013 has been a tough year for where children build their own out publicly, aware that, if in late 2012, Joko served as democracy. Together, David play area together, instead of arrested, she would enjoy the mayor of Surakarta. Now, using pre-made structures, little to no legal protection. many expect that he will enter Scott sees an anarchist society “Today we have lawyers in our grounded in consensus-based leadership—both Vladimir Joko Widodo, the governor of Jakarta, attends a Metallica concert in August. politics—and better off as a Putin and Dmitry Medvedev result. He invites readers to do have law degrees,” she told the the same. Daily Beast in August, “but they do not know what the Graeber and Scott present a rule of law means.” vision, which has sparked fer- vent responses from both con- servative and liberal thinkers, of what the radical left still has to offer the world. The drasti- cally reconstituted society they envision seems impossible, but their dreaming has nonetheless made anarchism a hot—and more legitimate—topic of polit- ical debate. 91FOREIGN POLICY

THE NATURALS What does humanity’s future hold? In this era of climate change and booming populations, it’s an all-too-serious question—one the Global Thinkers in this category have each addressed. They have crunched the numbers to gauge just how close to environmental catastrophe we are. They have identified ways to slow the damage we are inflicting on both our surroundings and ourselves. They have restored wastelands to their original beauty. They are helping humanity become a better steward of the planet and, in the process, ensuring that our future will be long and fruitful. INTERGOVERNMENTAL the document, the panel favorite argument: that glob- DAVID LOBELL COURTESY MACARTHUR FOUNDATION PANEL ON imposed stricter standards al warming has “paused.” on its work—and painted a The rise of atmospheric FOR HELPING FARMERS CLIMATE CHANGE grimmer picture than ever. temperatures has slowed (not FEED THE WORLD. Global warming, according to stopped), the report explains, FOR SHOWING THAT HUMANITY IS the fifth comprehensive anal- because oceans are absorbing AGRICULTURAL ON THE BRINK OF CATASTROPHE. ysis of climate research since more of the new heat. the ipcc’s founding in 1988, »ECOLOGIST | STANFORD, CALIF. »CLIMATE SCIENTISTS | SWITZERLAND is not only “unequivocal,” it’s The panel, composed of cli- Against the backdrop In September, the going to get much worse. mate scientists from around of climate change, a United Nations’ the world, is not pulling question looms large: Can Intergovernmental Panel The ipcc found a higher punches. “By the mid-21st the world feed all its people? on Climate Change (ipcc) concentration of greenhouse century,” its 2013 report reads, There are already 842 million announced that it is “virtual- gases in the atmosphere “the magnitudes of the pro- undernourished people on the ly certain” that humans are than at any time in the jected changes are substan- planet, and recent research responsible for the planet’s last 800,000 years. By the tially affected by the choice of suggests that food supplies are rising temperatures—the century’s end, if greenhouse emissions scenario.” most authoritative rebuttal gas emissions go unchecked, of climate-change deniers seas could rise to almost 3 In other words, the ipcc, to date. Rebounding from feet (nearly a foot higher than which won the Nobel Peace problems surrounding its the ipcc’s 2007 estimate) and Prize in 2007, has shown that 2007 report, including hack- displace millions of people. climate change is already ers publishing internal ipcc too far along for us to stop it. emails and a few inconse- Perhaps the biggest news But whether the worst of the quential, but still embarrass- in the report, however, panel’s predictions come to ing, errors making it into is the debunking of cli- pass is, at least in part, still mate-change deniers’ up to us. 92 DECEMBER 2013

A satellite view of Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 shows the “superstorm” over the U.S. East Coast.NASA PHOTO; FOOD ICON: THE NOUN PROJECT HOW IS GLOBAL increasingly at risk as tempera- LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS NATURALSa catcher at a baseball game in The study, released in early WARMING tures rise. If we do nothing to which farmers and breeders September, was coordinated CHANGING address agricultural practices who need to adapt to climate by four scientists: Thomas OUR FOOD? and climate change, then the change are the pitchers. “I Peterson, Martin Hoerling, picture of human hunger looks can give them a good target,” Peter Stott, and Stephanie JAPANESE dire as our population heads Lobell says. “It’s really a matter Herring. Using the tools of a FUJI APPLES toward an estimated 9.6 billion of working together.” field known as “climate attri- in 2050. bution science,” the research- Popular for their crispness, With the goal of feeding the ers compared, correlated, and they have gotten softer David Lobell, an agricultural world on the line, it’s reas- analyzed data on weather and and sweeter over the past ecologist at Stanford Universi- suring to know that Lobell is anthropogenic pollution such 40 years. ty who works in the emerging behind the plate. as carbon dioxide emissions. field of crop informatics, wants They examined a dozen POTATOES to brighten this picture. Lobell, THOMAS PETERSON, meteorological cases from who won a MacArthur “genius MARTIN HOERLING, 2012, including superstorms, Spud crops in Greenland grant” in 2013, is working to retreating Arctic sea ice, heavy recently doubled over determine how the world can PETER STOTT, rainfall in Europe, and intense just four years because increase crop yields—that is, STEPHANIE HERRING heat along the United States’ of longer, warmer get more food without expand- Eastern Seaboard. Their study summers in the Arctic. ing farmland—in the chang- FOR PROVING THAT THE concluded that, in about half “Also, cabbage has been ing environment, while also DEVASTATION OF SUPERSTORM of the cases, human activity very successful,” a local mitigating long-term damage SANDY WAS PARTLY OUR FAULT. increased the likelihood of scientist told Reuters. to the planet. His work exam- extreme weather incidents. ines regions from sub-Saharan »SCIENTISTS | UNITED STATES, BRITAIN For instance, the scientists AVOCADOS Africa to South Asia and staple Were humans respon- concluded that Sandy-related crops from corn to wheat. To sible for Hurricane flooding was exacerbated by Production in California conduct his research, he culls Sandy or the severe droughts the rise in global sea levels could decrease by as and analyzes existing data on of 2012? The question was caused by climate change. much as 40 percent by weather patterns, agricultural widely debated by politicians 2050, according to a practices, and resources such and the public this year—and The researchers were study in Agricultural and as water and soil. In a 2013 it was also at the heart of a careful in their conclusions, Forest Meteorology. Sorry, study, Lobell determined that groundbreaking study of noting that “natural variabil- guacamole lovers. corn is more vulnerable to extreme weather, conducted ity can still be the primary extreme heat and drought than jointly by the U.S. National factor in any individual CORN previously thought—a finding Oceanic and Atmospheric extreme event.” But in linking that has major implications for Administration and Britain’s the devastating scale of recent Prices of this staple crop helping corn farmers optimize Met Office. floods, storms, and droughts go up as temperatures do, their output. to humans’ impact on the which inflates the cost of environment, their study was everything from cereals Lobell compares himself to to sodas. FOR SOURCING, PLEASE VISIT FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 93FOREIGN POLICY

LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS NATURALSa breakthrough in climate science, whose experts had COURTESY GOLDMAN ENVIRONMENTAL PRIZEpreviously been hesitant to link climate change to ex- treme weather events. As governments seek to address climate change’s pernicious impacts—in early November, for instance, U.S. President Barack Obama set up a task force to advise his ad- ministration on responding to wildfires, droughts, and other calamities—understanding how and why extreme weather occurs is more important than ever. Peterson, Hoerling, Stott, and Herring have pointed problem-solvers in the right direction. TODD STERN, Azzam Alwash (center) visits Baghdadia Lake. Alwash has spent years restoring Iraq’s marshes, which Saddam Hussein drained. XIE ZHENHUA frameworks and focusing energy efficiency. And their sought refuge there. FOR SHOWING THAT CLIMATE on areas of mutual interest, June deal got a boost this fall, Azzam Alwash says his first POLICY AGREEMENTS REALLY Stern and Xie, with the back- when the G-20 announced it ing of their countries’ lead- also supports a reduction in post-Saddam-era view of the CAN BE REACHED. ership, broke this gridlock. hfc emissions. marshes he’d loved as a child One U.S. senator called the was “traumatic.” He told the U.S. ENVOY FOR CLIMATE deal, which was announced Stern and Xie’s work shows Guardian, “I remembered the CHANGE | WASHINGTON in June, “a model for broader that small steps toward place as lush and alive; now it VICE CHAIRMAN, NATIONAL climate change initiatives.” combating global warming was just dust, devoid of clean DEVELOPMENT AND REFORM are still possible. There’s air, with no reeds, no people, It could also have a big hope that, eventually, such just sickly dogs.” È COMMISSION | CHINA environmental impact: The steps could add up to major Since the much-hyped warming effect of hfcs, change. Alwash, who fled Iraq in 2009 Copenhagen found in refrigerators and the late 1970s, returned home climate talks ended with a air-conditioners, is roughly AZZAM ALWASH in 2003 to restore the marsh- whimper, a comprehensive 1,430 times more powerful FOR SAVING THE lands. He founded the non- international agreement to than that of carbon dioxide, GARDEN OF EDEN. profit Nature Iraq and used address global warming has and by 2050, hfcs are pro- his professional engineering seemed very unlikely. But jected to make up one-fifth È ACTIVIST | IRAQ experience to develop a plan when Todd Stern, the U.S. of greenhouse gas emissions. Add it to the list to bring the water back. special envoy for climate The U.S.-China agreement, of crimes commit- change, and his Chinese however, could slash the ted by Saddam Hussein: His efforts have been wild- counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, equivalent of two years’ the destruction of Iraq’s ly successful. Almost half the negotiated a landmark worth of global greenhouse marshlands. Known as the original marsh area has been agreement this year to limit gas emissions by the middle birthplace of agriculture and reflooded. Plants and birds the production and use of of the century.  writing, the cradle of ancient have slowly returned. Even hydrofluorocarbons—known civilizations ranging from the people who once lived as hfcs, or “super green- Stern and Xie, who co-lead Sumer to Babylonia, and pos- there—the so-called Marsh house gases”—they proved the bilateral Climate Change sibly the site of the Garden of Arabs—have begun to rebuild there’s another way forward: Working Group, formed in Eden, the marshlands were their lives. bilateral agreements. April, have helped their drained and transformed into countries agree on five other barren desert in order to root In 2013, Alwash was The United States has long initiatives aimed at curb- out political opponents who’d awarded the Goldman Envi- pushed for China, the world’s ing emissions, including ronmental Prize (the “Green largest polluter, to curb augmenting carbon storage Oscar”) for his efforts. Also emissions, while China has and increasing buildings’ this year, the marshlands insisted it shouldn’t have to were designated as Iraq’s first sacrifice development to fix a national park. Now, Alwash problem created by more- industrialized countries. By working outside multilateral 94 DECEMBER 2013

MYCHELE DANIAU/AFP/GETTY IMAGES has turned his energies name spread across Canada. model of taking, making, and THE 4 toward fighting a new threat Solidarity demonstrations disposing, a circular econo- BIGGEST LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS NATURALSto the marshlands: upstream also occurred in the United my focuses on reusing and ENEMIES OF dams along the Turkey-Syria States, Europe, and Australia. restoring the world’s resourc- CANADA’S border. The protests in particular es. For instance, food waste ENVIRONMENT targeted Canada’s extractive can be turned into biogas and Being an environmentalist industries, asserting that new soil nutrients; spent grain at What exactly is the Idle No in a postwar country isn’t pipelines and other projects beer breweries can be given More movement up against? always easy. “People are would destroy land and dis- to farmers as a feed supple- Here’s a taste. worried about security. And rupt ecosystems. One protest ment; and manufacturers can here I am worrying about the delayed exploratory drilling develop durable goods and MINERAL environment,” Alwash said in in British Columbia. biodegradable packaging that MINING an interview with the journal won’t contribute to mounting of the University of Pennsyl- More recently, Idle No landfills. And this can all be Projects in Ontario’s Ring of vania’s Wharton School. More staged nationwide done collectively: Businesses, Fire region, mining nickel, demonstrations on Oct. 7 governments, and consumers copper, and other mineral “I’m a tree hugger,” he to mark 250 years since the can work together to create deposits worth up to $50 added, “and a proud one at British Royal Proclamation, networks that allow a circular billion, stretch across the that. And that’s how I choose which created guidelines for economy to function. northern half of Canada’s to help the nation of Iraq.” European settlement of in- boreal forests—and sit digenous territories in North MacArthur has embraced next to nine Matawa First JESSICA GORDON, America. Supporters say the the idea—drawn from the Nations’ communities. SYLVIA MCADAM, movement also continues to work of various economists, SHEELAH MCLEAN, give a voice to an often over- scientists, and environmen- FRACKING NINA WILSON looked population. “People talists—because of her expe- weren’t willing to listen to riences at sea, where finite Forty members of the FOR DEMANDING THAT our issues,” First Nations resources are a reality. “You Elsipogtog nation were CANADA NOT LEAVE ITS FIRST blogger Chelsea Vowel said manage what you have down arrested in New Brunswick in October, “unless a white to the last packet of food and in October after clashing NATIONS BEHIND. person said them.” the last liter of diesel for the with police over shale gas generator,” she told the Brit- exploration. FOUNDERS, IDLE NO MORE | CANADA ELLEN MACARTHUR ish edition of Wired. FOR JUMPSTARTING THE TAR SANDS È Last winter, what CIRCULAR ECONOMY. In 2013, the Ellen MacAr- started as a flurry of thur Foundation released a Extractions from these emails among four Saskatch- FOUNDER, ELLEN MACARTHUR report on the rationale for a deposits generate ewan women grew into a circular economy, projecting, greenhouse gas emissions robust grassroots move- È FOUNDATION | BRITAIN for instance, that the concept and turn forests and ment. The women—Jessica Ellen MacArthur, a could save the consumer territories used by First Gordon, Sylvia McAdam, competitive sailor, goods industry $700 billion Nations into wastelands. Sheelah McLean, and Nina broke the world record for each year. MacArthur’s foun- The proposed Keystone xl Wilson—were correspond- fastest circumnavigation dation points to examples pipeline would transport ing about a budget bill that of the globe in 2005. For such as the eco-industrial crude oil from Alberta’s tar would affect land manage- someone else, that might be park in Kalundborg, Den- sands to the United States. ment on the reservations enough for one lifetime. But mark, where one company’s of Canada’s indigenous MacArthur has taken on a waste becomes another’s COPPER communities, called First new challenge: putting the raw materials, as models for MINING Nations. Believing the bill ambitious concept of a “cir- change. challenged First Nations’ cular economy” into action. Indigenous people in Quebec sovereignty and weakened With the report in hand, and British Columbia have environmental protections, In contrast to the typical MacArthur—who made a opposed projects because they organized a meeting of splash in January at the they would negatively afect local activists. Gordon called World Economic Forum traditional hunting and the Facebook page that meeting in Davos—began fishing. resulted from the meeting gathering partners. So “Idle No More” as a reminder far, she counts Coca-Cola, FOR SOURCING, PLEASE VISIT that the community had to Philips, and the Scottish gov- FOREIGNPOLICY.COM “get off the couch and start ernment among her support- working.” ers. And she’s challenging 95FOREIGN POLICY more countries and business- Before long, #IdleNoMore es to join her. “Be it mar- was trending on Twitter, keting, manufacturing, or and protests under the same governments,” she has said, “there is a role to play.”

THE INNOVATORS The modern world changes quickly in no small part because technology keeps bringing us new ways to do more, do it better, and do it faster. That is not always a good thing: Far from ushering in the utopia so often promised by Silicon Valley boosterism, 2013 brought us all too many reminders that, in the wrong hands, technology has a dark side. But the Global Thinkers in this category have shown us the power, goodness, and sheer amazement that innovation can bring. From eforts to explore the vastness of the solar system to machines that coax intelligence from the tiniest of particles, their work has given even the world-weary that most precious of gifts: wonderment. 96 DECEMBER 2013

MUSK: FERNANDO LEON/GETTY IMAGES; ROSE: JEAN BAPTISTE CC; STARNER: JOSH EDELSON/AFP/GETTY IMAGES ELON MUSK Although many of his THAD STARNER projects have been met with LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS INNOVATORS FOR MAKING SCI-FI REAL. skepticism—“Overpromise FOR PREACHING THE GOSPEL OF WEARABLE COMPUTING. disease is endemic to Silicon »ENTREPRENEUR | LOS ANGELES Valley, but Musk has an COMPUTER SCIENTIST | MOUNTAIN VIEW, CALIF. It’s no wonder that aggravated case,” journalist Elon Musk draws Tad Friend wrote in the New From Google Glass eyewear to Samsung’s Galaxy Gear comparisons to Marvel Com- Yorker in August—Musk’s smartwatch, 2013 has been the year of wearable computing. ics character Tony Stark (aka track record so far is pretty And we have Thad Starner, a Georgia Tech professor and co-founder Iron Man), the billionaire impressive. And even if he of MIT’s wearable computing project, to thank for much of this playboy, industrialist, and doesn’t succeed with some of technology. inventor. his more ambitious propos- Starner has worn some form of a computer for the last 20 years. als, Musk may well be an As early as 1998, he had developed a camera with face-recognition In August, Musk, who first inspiration to a new genera- software, sparing him the awkwardness of not being able to appeared in the public eye tion of innovators. (For more remember the names of acquaintances he ran into on the street. after co-founding PayPal in on Elon Musk, see Michael It’s no surprise, then, that Starner is one of the technical managers 1999, unveiled a proposal for Belfiore’s article on p. 102.) behind Project Glass, Google’s effort to bring wearable computing a near-supersonic transport to the masses. Initially released to a select number of people in mechanism that would whisk GEORDIE ROSE early 2013, Google Glass is expected to be widely available in 2014, passengers from Los Angeles allowing people to surf the web, call friends, and shoot videos, all to San Francisco. Musk says FOR PIONEERING THE DEVELOPMENT through a set of eyeglasses. his Hyperloop of dual tubes OF QUANTUM COMPUTERS. Pretty soon, Starner could be joined by millions of other people would reduce travel time to with computers strapped to them. 35 minutes and cost only $6 FOUNDER, D-WAVE SYSTEMS | CANADA billion. Then, in September, and the private investing firm wants to determine “how Musk announced that his » Geordie Rose won of Amazon.com founder Jeff quantum computing might company Tesla Motors would two national wres- Bezos. advance machine learning.” begin producing a car capable tling championships in Moreover, the device in the of running on auto pilot Canada. He later became a Rose’s critics have ques- new Google Glass eyewear within just three years—faster world champion in Brazilian tioned whether his ma- that determines whether a than his two competitors for jiu-jitsu. “I don’t mind a good chines truly utilize quantum blink is an involuntary reflex self-driving cars, Germany’s fight,” Rose has said. mechanics. A 2011 Nature or an attempt to activate the Daimler ag and Japan’s article concluded that they wearable computer’s built-in Nissan. (Google, which has That’s good, because he is do, quieting some skeptics. camera uses a quantum algo- fitted cars with radar-like fighting to restructure how And a May 2013 study showed rithm developed by D-Wave. equipment for driverless we see and use computers. that one of Rose’s quantum navigation, hasn’t provided a Rose, the founder and chief machines could solve a prob- Rose has high hopes for timeline.) technology officer of D-Wave lem 3,600 times faster than a quantum computing. “The Systems, is a pioneer in the high-end conventional one. idea is to create machines These announcements only esoteric field of quantum that are as intelligent as augmented Musk’s reputa- computing, which uses This year, D-Wave sold humans,” he says, “and prob- tion for thinking big—really quantum bits (“qubits”) to machines to a joint nasa- ably much more so.” big—about innovation. With process quantities of data Google research team that the money he earned from the exponentially larger than sale of PayPal in 2002, Musk what normal computers founded SpaceX, a space ex- can analyze. D-Wave sold ploration company. In 2006, its first quantum computer nasa hired the firm to design to Lockheed Martin in 2011, a launch and delivery system and in 2012, D-Wave raised to supply the International $30 million from In-Q-Tel, a Space Station; in 2010, Musk’s cia-linked investment fund, business became the first private company to launch a spacecraft into orbit and re- turn it successfully to Earth. 97FOREIGN POLICY

LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS INNOVATORS THE GLOBAL CONVERSATION IRAN WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU TAKE SIX MONTHS OF news coverage from around the world and compile BARACK a list of every person mentioned and the people they OBAMA were mentioned alongside? You get a network of 3 million nodes connected by 42 million links. Based MOHAMED on the gdelt Global Knowledge Graph—a massive MORSY compilation of the world’s people, organizations, locations, themes, emotions, and events created by HOSNI Kalev Leetaru, one of FP’s Global Thinkers, and his MUBARAK colleagues Philip Schrodt and Patrick Brandt—this visualization is a snapshot of the 25,000 newsmak- Edward Snowden’s rise ers mentioned most frequently from April to October to fame this year is 2013 and the 100,000 connections among them. reflected here with his interconnection to many The yellow cloud portrays coverage involving the world leaders. Just United States, with President Barack Obama near its above him and slightly center. The left portion encompasses world leaders to the right is the most most heavily interconnected with Washington, from connected node of all, Russian President Vladimir Putin to Syrian President Barack Obama. Bashar al-Assad, while the top portion comprises major American politicians, like House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Geographical regions make up many of the larger colored clusters: Egypt (left-most blue), Africa (top-right red), Canada (center-right green), India (center-right pink). The relative centrality of the regions, their size, and the strength of their ties to the United States and each other give a sense of how prominent each has been in news coverage and, by inference, the degree of importance world leaders give them. Egypt’s cluster, for example, is quite large, reflecting the detailed coverage of its struggles. By contrast, Iran’s far smaller cluster is actually an extension of the U.S. grouping, reflecting the narrow focus on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, which are seen almost completely in the context of the country’s relationship with Washington. One of the most notable aspects of the visualiza- tion is the isolation of some subjects that receive a lot of news coverage but that have few ties to anything else happening. For example, the bottom-most green cluster focuses on movie stars, while the lower-right pink cluster focuses on sports. In a sign of just how influential the scandals over leaked intelligence documents have been this year, actor Benedict Cumberbatch, who plays hacker Julian Assange in The Fifth Estate, forms one of the primary connec- tions between Hollywood and the rest of the network. This visualization is, in essence, a snapshot of the global conversation—not only whom we are talking about and how much, but how each separate discussion is connected to every other discussion and the greater whole. It’s a new way of gauging what matters to us, and it’s just one of the ways in which big data is changing the way we see the world. 98 DECEMBER 2013