Foreign Policy - #203 November-December special double issue 2013

PLUS: WILLIAM T. VOLLMANN ON THE SURVEILLANCE STATE DOUGLAS BRINKLEY ON JOHN KERRY E.J. DIONNE JR. ON POPE FRANCIS SPECIAL DOUBLE ISSUE THE LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS OF 2013



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LETTER FROM THE EDITORS A Year of Big Ideas Welcome to our fifth annual special issue featuring fp’s 100 Leading Global Thinkers. Each autumn, Foreign Policy’s editors start compiling this remarkable list of people who, over the past year, have made a measurable difference in politics, business, technology, the arts, the sciences, and more. To get the ball rolling, we reach out to wonks, writers, experts, and policymakers on six continents for nominees. We look at the year’s biggest stories and scour the weird and arcane from trade and scientific journals (and find someone to explain it all to us). Then, armed with thousands of names, we sit down to hash out the list. Putting together fp’s 100 Leading Global Thinkers is a chal- state—perhaps this year’s biggest story. And to give the story lenge and a pleasure—an opportunity to single out some of the world’s most exciting people and laud their accomplishments. texture and context, we could think of no one better than our Some will be obvious, many you may have never heard of, and others, well, we just think they’re cool. generation’s answer to George Orwell, award-winning novel- Admittedly, not every one of our ist William T. Vollmann. The result is mesmerizing (p. 68). Global Thinkers is an angel. There are a few we’d prefer were a little less We’d also like to draw your attention to successful, a few whose goals and mo- tivations are mixed at best, and plenty the data visualization compiled by one of who, though well intentioned, may not achieve what they set out to. But our Global Thinkers, Kalev Leetaru, and the vast majority are not only accom- plished—they are affirming. They are his colleagues, who mapped millions of doing nothing less than bringing peace, protecting the planet, and pushing media mentions of the 25,000 most-talk- the boundaries of the possible. Their achievements are the reward of talent ed-about individuals in the world—and and dedication, and we all benefit. the connections among them (p. 98). If This year, rather than trying to rank the Global Thinkers, we’ve you want to know who’s really driving grouped them into clusters, which we think is a better way of present- the global conversation, look no further. ing their contributions, and we’ve singled out a handful of individ- It has been a big year, one full of uals and developments for deep- er dives. For example, the list includes the main players amazing stories, stunning revelations, (Edward Snowden, Keith Alexander, Glenn Greenwald, and Laura Poitras) in the unmasking of the global surveillance and groundbreaking ideas. And it has been a big year for fp as well. By the time this issue hits newsstands, we hope you’ll have already spent some time online at the redesigned ForeignPolicy.com. We’ve worked hard to sharpen our focus on inci- sive reporting and global analysis, and our articles are now comple- mented by a bold new look with brilliant images and graphics, inter- active features, and intuitive navigation. Enjoy the new site—and the Global Thinkers issue—and be sure to let us know what you think. —The Editors FOREIGN POLICY 3

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CONTENTS SPECIAL ISSUE DEPARTMENTS THE 8 Contributors 10 Letters LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS OF 2013 A Steampunk History of the Cold War, Vice Vice Baby, The Bold and the Cautious 64 THE SURVEILLANCE STATE AND ITS DISCONTENTS 75 THE DECISION-MAKERS 85 THE CHALLENGERS 15 92 THE NATURALS 96 THE INNOVATORS INBOX 104 THE ADVOCATES 110 THE CHRONICLERS 117 THE HEALERS 121 THE ARTISTS 127 THE MOGULS 16 Opening Gambit Augustine’s World By Robert D. Kaplan FEATURING: 20 The Optimist Linked Out 68 William T. Vollmann ON SURVEILLANCE IN AMERICA By Charles Kenny 78 Douglas Brinkley 98 Kalev Leetaru MAPS 22 Anthropology of an Idea ON THE EMERGENCE OF THE THE GLOBAL CONVERSATION The Darknet By Ty McCormick 24 The Things They Carried KERRY DOCTRINE 102 Michael Belfiore ON The Middle-Class Syrian Refugee ELON MUSK’S RACE TO SPACE Photographs and text by Bryan Denton 84 Daniel Altman 25 The New New Normal The Roadblock ON EUROPE’S RECOVERY 112 Douglas Preston ON ARCHAEOLOGY’S NEW By Mohamed A. El-Erian 88 E.J. Dionne Jr. ON THE 28 Ideas What’s an African Life Worth?, GOSPEL OF POPE FRANCIS LOVE OF LASERS The Selfish State, Use It or Lose It, ON THE COVER: ILLUSTRATION BY SEAN FREEMAN FOR FP Oppa Gangnam Bubble By Alicia P.Q. Wittmeyer 30 Think Again: Mexican Drug Cartels By Evelyn Krache Morris 34 Pictured The Sochi Project 36 Dispatch Hack Tibet By Jonathan Kaiman 39 Epiphanies Leon Panetta Interview by Ty McCormick 139 IN OTHER WORDS Most Favored Narrations The 10 best books, according to China’s ruling elite. By Isaac Stone Fish and Helen Gao 144 COLUMN Dysfunction Junction Americans aren’t the only ones fed up with their government. By David Rothkopf 5FOREIGN POLICY

David Rothkopf CEO & EDITOR AT LARGE J. Peter Scoblic Benjamin Pauker Noah Shachtman EXECUTIVE EDITOR MANAGING EDITOR EXECUTIVE EDITOR ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY NEWS Lindsay Ballant CREATIVE DIRECTOR Rebecca Frankel Seyward Darby SPECIAL PROJECTS EDITOR STORY EDITOR MIDDLE EAST EDITOR David Kenner ASSOCIATE EDITORS Ty McCormick, Isaac Stone Fish ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITOR Jake Scobey-Thal ASSISTANT EDITORS Elias Groll, Thomas Stackpole, J. Dana Stuster, Prachi Vidwans, Alicia P.Q. Wittmeyer FELLOWS Catherine Traywick, Hanna Kozlowska RESEARCHER Katelyn Fossett COPY CHIEF P.J. Aroon DEPUTY ART DIRECTOR Ed Johnson SENIOR STAFF WRITERS Yochi Dreazen, Shane Harris, Gordon Lubold SENIOR REPORTER Jamila Trindle STAFF WRITERS John Hudson, Dan Lamothe SENIOR EDITORS, TEA LEAF NATION Rachel Lu, David Wertime ASSISTANT EDITOR, TEA LEAF NATION Liz Carter CONTRIBUTING EDITORS Daniel Altman, John Arquilla, Peter Bergen, David Bosco, Ian Bremmer, Rosa Brooks, Christian Caryl, Daniel W. Drezner, Mohamed A. El-Erian, Peter D. Feaver, David E. Hoffman, William Inboden, Charles Kenny, Christina Larson, Colum Lynch, Marc Lynch, Aaron David Miller, Thomas E. Ricks, James Traub, Stephen M. Walt, Micah Zenko SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, CIRCULATION, GLOBAL ADVERTISING SALES DIGITAL STRATEGY AND OPERATIONS Christopher Cotnoir Amer Yaqub WEB DIRECTOR Tim Showers ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER WEB DEVELOPER Priya Nannapaneni Eleanor Dixson-Hobbs VICE PRESIDENT, COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR, CONTENT SALES Keith Arends Jess Dillman ASSISTANT DIRECTOR, MARKETING RESEARCH SENIOR ACCOUNT DIRECTOR AND AD TRAFFIC Maria San Jose Matthew J. Curry SENIOR MANAGER, NATION BRANDING Emily Simon BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT MANAGER Tara Vohra SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, EVENTS Deborah Cunningham SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER Allen Chin VICE PRESIDENT, EVENTS Alex Glass ASSISTANT TO THE CEO Hilary Kline COMMUNICATIONS AND MARKETING FELLOWS Maria Ory, Andrea Willis Foreign Policy 11 Dupont Circle NW, Suite 600, Washington, D.C. 20036 PUBLISHING OFFICE: (202) 728-7300 | SUBSCRIPTIONS: (800) 535-6343 SUBSCRIPTIONS & SUBSCRIBER SERVICES Foreign Policy, P.O. Box 283, Congers, NY 10920-0283; ForeignPolicy.com/services; e-mail: [email protected]; (800) 535-6343 in U.S.; (845) 267-3050 outside U.S.; Publi- cations mail agreement no. 40778561. Rates (in U.S. funds): $59.99 for one year. For academic rates, go to ForeignPolicy.com/education. NEWSSTAND AND BOOKSTORE DISTRIBUTION Curtis Circulation Company, 730 River Road, New Milford, NJ 07646-3048; (201) 634-7400. BACK ISSUES $10.95 per copy. International airmail add $3.00 per copy; online: ForeignPolicy.com/backissues; e-mail: [email protected]. SYNDICATION REQUESTS Contact Matthew Curry (202) 728-7351; [email protected]. OTHER PERMISSION REQUESTS Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (978) 750-8400; www.copyright.com. FOR ADVERTISING Call (202) 728-7310. 2009 NATIONAL MAGAZINE AWARD GENERAL EXCELLENCE © 2013 by The FP Group, a division of The Washington Post Company, which bears no responsibility for the editorial content; the views expressed in the articles are those of the authors. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher.

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CONTRIBUTORS In 1982, WILLIAM T. VOLLMANN used what little money he EVELYN KRACHE MORRIS, a fellow at had saved working at an insurance company to travel Harvard University’s Belfer Center to Afghanistan and embed with the mujahideen in for Science and International their fight against Soviet occupation, motivated, Affairs, studies how the illicit drug he said, by the “urgent case of politically induced trade has influenced U.S. relations suffering.” Vollmann’s writing since then has been with Mexico and Afghanistan. informed by his brand of subversive, anti-authori- According to Krache Morris, the tarian politics—politics that attracted the watchful failure to stem drug trade violence eye of the fbi, which once suspected him of being in the Americas is due to ineffec- the Unabomber. Vollmann, who won a 2005 National tual interventions and a simple Book Award for his novel Europe Central, recently lack of attention. A historian by published The Book of Dolores, in which he explores training, Krache Morris wrote her his female alter ego. | P. 68 dissertation on the U.S. use of her- bicides in South Vietnam under A Washington Post columnist and Georgetown John F. Kennedy. | P. 30 University professor well known for his com- mentary on American politics, E.J. DIONNE JR. has Historian DOUGLAS BRINKLEY, based a long-standing interest in the intersection of at Rice University, has spent his religion and public life. He covered the Vatican for career researching and writing the New York Times from 1984 to 1986 and traveled about the lions of American extensively with Pope John Paul ii. His 2008 book, politics, from Theodore Roos- Souled Out: Reclaiming Faith and Politics After the evelt to Ronald Reagan. In 2004, Religious Right, foresaw a shift among American he published Tour of Duty: John Christians away from the culture wars and toward Kerry and the Vietnam War, a bi- issues of social justice—not unlike the transfor- ography of the then-Democratic mation Pope Francis is now proposing within the presidential candidate. In recent Catholic Church. | P. 88 years, he has written about the effects of Hurricane Katrina and MICHAEL BELFIORE knew he wanted to write about the work of the American conser- space after reading Robert A. Heinlein’s Rock- vation movement. | P. 78 et Ship Galileo when he was 6 years old. After initially pursuing a career in science-fiction writ- ing, Belfiore went on to document the real-life characters and innovations that propel humani- ty’s reach into the cosmos. His 2007 book, Rocke- teers: How a Visionary Band of Business Leaders, Engineers, and Pilots Is Boldly Privatizing Space, was the first to chronicle the birth of the com- mercial space age. | P. 102 Like any good mystery novelist—he has written 23 thrillers—DOUGLAS PRESTON values the search as much as the reveal. His nonfiction reporting, which has often focused on ancient civilizations, has led him deep into the Cambodian jungle to visit a lost Angkor temple and inside a previously un- explored Egyptian burial tomb in the Valley of the Kings. In 1992, Preston, who used to work for the American Museum of Natural History, published Cities of Gold, an account of his own 1,000-mile trek across the American Southwest retracing Fran- cisco Vásquez de Coronado’s search for the Seven Cities of Gold. | P. 112 8 DECEMBER 2013

how do we reconcile power and justice? david bosco -Assistant professor -Contributing editor, Foreign Policy -Author of the forthcoming book, Rough Justice great challenges David Bosco, Fulbright Scholar and writer for Foreign Policy’s Multilateralist blog, examines fundamental global issues of our time through the lenses of organizational development and historical relevance. His work has appeared in the Washington Post, demand a Slate, and The New York Times Book Review. He has provided commentary for several media outlets, including CNN, National global perspective Public Radio, and Voice of America. A former attorney who focused on international arbitration and antitrust matters, Bosco also served as a political analyst and journalist in Bosnia and Herzegovina and as deputy director of a joint United Nations/NATO project on repatriating refugees in Sarajevo. au’s school of international service prepares international relations graduates for global service in government, nonprofits, and business. american.edu/sis

LETTERS A Steampunk two chairmen of the Joint recently, suggests a concep- VICE VICE BABY History of Chiefs of Staff were asked at tual omission in Kroenig’s In the September/ the Cold War the time whether they would analysis: the downside of October issue, trade strategic nuclear forces superiority. Kroenig says dedicated to the topic In his article “Think Again: with the Soviet Union. The the state with more nuclear of vice, Foreign Policy American Nuclear Disarma- answer each time was no. weapons is more likely to get crunched the numbers ment” (September/October its way in a crisis. It is nice to to determine the 2013), Matthew Kroenig cites Kroenig’s four “defeats,” get one’s way, of course, but drunkest, fattest, and his own work in the journal meanwhile, are bizarre. what of the risk that the crisis laziest countries in the International Organization to According to Kroenig’s model, ends in a nuclear disaster, world. The so-called claim that nuclear superi- waning U.S. nuclear supe- whether by accident, inad- “Sindex” provoked ority matters. Kroenig fails riority helps explain why a vertence, or misperception? spirited reactions to mention, however, that Democratic Congress refused The extreme Soviet paranoia online. other scholars in the very the Ford administration’s during the Able Archer inci- same issue of the journal request to aid one side in the dent suggests that superiority The Dutch novelist find the opposite to be true: Angolan civil war, the Soviet can frighten an adversary Barry Smit Todd Sechser and Matthew decision to invade Afghani- into doing dangerous things, @barrysmit: Very Fuhrmann conclude that stan in 1979, some unspecified particularly if its leadership is good. Let the nuclear weapons are simply outcome from the 1983 Able less than perfectly rational. machines do the not effective tools of coercion. Archer nato exercise that work. RT @timorel (The blog Duck of Minerva terrified the Soviets, and a So I’d hold off on start- Among all hosted an online exchange in Soviet shipment of MiG-21s ing that arms race with the industrialized March between Kroenig and in 1984 that may have been Russians and Chinese—at nations, the Sechser and Fuhrmann.) intended for Nicaragua but least until we see a couple Netherlands works never arrived. In the original more regression models. the least. Policymakers too busy to data set, the last two cases referee this debate would still are coded as neither wins JEFFREY LEWIS Ian Bray, a do well to scrutinize Kroenig’s nor losses; Kroenig pres- Director of the East Asia spokesman model before embarking on ents both as U.S. defeats for Nonproliferation for the NGO Oxfam a massive arms buildup. His reasons that are obscure. Program, Center for @IanOxfam: When it model implies an alternate Nonproliferation Studies comes to rhinoplasty, history of the Cold War that The Able Archer military Monterey, Calif. China is ahead of could not be stranger if it exercise, much in the news Japan by a nose. were steampunk. Sechser and Fuhrmann, for example, won- Paul Benson, a der about Kroenig’s data set, Melbourne-based which suggests U.S. nuclear financial planner superiority enabled the Unit- @Paul_Benson11: ed States to ferry 545 Belgian According to Foreign paratroopers into Congo over Policy magazine’s Soviet objections in 1964. #Sindex, Australians lose the most to I, too, am puzzled by gambling in the OECD Kroenig’s data set, especially - $1,288 per capita. the claim that the United Makes you proud! States suffered a string of four crisis “defeats” that coincided The Tokyo-based with the onset of a period magazine the of imagined Soviet strate- Diplomat: gic superiority in the 1970s. ”Working in Europe Kroenig measures superiority and partying in Asia through sheer bean-counting, may be the best of including “beans” like nucle- both worlds.” ar weapons for air defense. In real life, U.S. policymakers did not believe Soviet nuclear forces to be superior, despite some partisan hand-wringing about an imagined “window of vulnerability.” At least Foreign Policy welcomes letters to the editor. Readers should address their comments to [email protected]. Letters may be edited for length and clarity. For more debate and discussion of our stories, go to ForeignPolicy.com. 10 DECEMBER 2013

LETTERS Matthew Kroenig deter crime without drawing his Even then, as the other points in compatriots for a new world. replies: firearm or threatening to use it. my Foreign Policy article explain, But Peraino’s article concerns In arguing against cuts to the The deterrent effect of nuclear it would be foolish to gamble on foreign policy, not racial U.S. nuclear arsenal, I explain superiority is evident in the many nuclear cuts. Nothing less than policy, and the ways that that because nuclear superiority crises that have not occurred, and America’s national survival is at President Barack Obama “is carries strategic benefits and no in the high-stakes crises Lewis stake. operating on a globe that major costs, the United States references, the shadow of nuclear Lincoln helped shape.” It is should not make further nuclear war loomed even larger. The Bold and also about what the two men reductions. But in his letter, the Cautious have in common and thus Jeffrey Lewis questions my claim Lewis asserts that nuclear what Lincoln’s legacy might that superiority enhances crises are dangerous. I agree. But Foreign Policy readers tell us about Obama’s America’s ability to deter and U.S. nuclear reductions only scanning the headline of eventual one. coerce adversaries. (He does not make them more dangerous by Kevin Peraino’s article “How contest my claims that cuts do decreasing the probability that Lincoln Shaped Obama’s Obama, Peraino remarks, not aid American nonproliferation adversaries will capitulate and by World” (September/October embodies “a particular style of objectives, save money, or help increasing the damage the United 2013) might surmise that its stolid forbearance [that] abolish nuclear weapons States would suffer in the event contents concern race. By suited global politics in altogether.) of war. freeing American slaves, Lincoln’s era just as it does our inviting freemen to serve in own.” Forbearance was indeed While the purpose of Lewis’s Lewis asks for more regres- the Union army, and, during a Lincolnian trait in both discussion of a number of crises sions. He can have them. A the last year of his life, domestic and foreign policy. between the United States and growing body of social science imagining a nation in which As Peraino points out, during its adversaries is unclear, my research by Erik Gartzke, Vipin African-Americans voted and his first important foreign best guess is that it is intended Narang, and others converges enjoyed the economic policy debate, Congressman to show that nuclear weapons around the notion that robust opportunities that the United Lincoln cautioned against war were irrelevant because they nuclear arsenals enhance States offered, Lincoln was with Mexico. In congressional were not used or explicitly threat- deterrence. certainly preparing his speeches in December 1847 ened. But this is a narrow-minded and January 1848, Lincoln, way to think about deterrence. Nevertheless, for the sake of while fellow lawmakers After all, a cop on the beat can argument, let’s assume that we clamored CONTINUED ON PAGE 13 >> are genuinely uncertain about whether superiority matters. FOREIGN POLICY 11

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LETTERS << CONTINUED FROM PAGE 11 a few word changes, these two beginning, Republican retaliatory action against Syria Lincoln speeches could have abolitionists pressured after it used chemical for war, demanded to know been delivered to restrain the Lincoln to make emancipation weapons against civilians. But “the particular spot of rush to war with Iraq in 2003— the penalty for Southern like Lincoln, Obama can be [American] soil on which the which Obama opposed when secession, but the president audacious in foreign policy. blood of our citizens was so he was still a state senator. prudently waited for the right His dogged pursuit of Osama shed.” He accused President moment. He first offered the bin Laden and his use of James Polk of covering his Lincoln’s boldest move as slave states a gradual, drones to attack suspected motives by “fixing the public president—freeing the compensated emancipation, a terrorists are examples. gaze upon the exceeding slaves—was made with all proposal that was rejected. brightness of military glory— deliberate speed, and with Only after a Union victory at Indeed, there are similari- that attractive rainbow that foreign policy objectives in the Battle of Antietam, in ties between Obama’s and rises in showers of blood.” With mind. From the Civil War’s September 1862, did Lincoln Lincoln’s leadership. The two issue the Preliminary naturally cautious politicians Emancipation Proclamation. have at times acted with His timing was perfect: Gen. surprising boldness—Lincoln Robert E. Lee’s thwarted with his devastating war invasion of the North made against his own countrymen the British wary of aiding the and by abolishing American South, and the proclamation slavery, Obama with his fully ended British interest in aggressive prosecution of the fighting with the Confederacy. war on terror. But the question remains: Will history vindi- Obama, meanwhile, has cate Obama’s foreign policy been criticized for being choices as it did Lincoln’s? overly cautious in foreign policy. He was derided for JAMES TACKACH “leading from behind” during Professor of English the crisis in Libya and was Roger Williams University criticized for not taking swift Bristol, R.I. “GMAP’s first rate curriculum and faculty have refreshed and sharpened my world view” – Mark Mullinix, (GMAP 2011) First Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond GLOBAL MASTER OF ARTS One-year Master of Arts Degree. PROGRAM 

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