Foreign Policy - #215 November-December 2015

NOV/DEC 2015 $8.99 U.S./CAN





contents 11|12.2015 040 054 Donald Ingber Slava Epstein THE LEADING 048 THE INNOVATORS Kim Lewis GLOBAL THINKERS OF 2015 Theresa Dankovich Dena Marrinucci THE CHALLENGERS Nina Tandon ON THE COVER 042 Miguel Nicolelis 074 Khaled al-Asaad Justin Sanchez TYPOGRAPHY BY Charles Williams THE DECISION Radhika Anthony Zador THE STEWARDS Michael Cima Christiana Figueres MAKERS Coomaraswamy Robert Langer Trang Tran Rodrigo Janot Amy-Willard Cross Pope Francis Angela Merkel Eamon Gilmore Thelle Kristensen Amelia Telford Margot Wallström Christopher & Regina Hans Jørgen Wiberg Suhail al-Mazrouei Ben Rhodes Daniel Fletcher Akon Ricardo Zuniga Catrambone Anne Hidalgo Roberta Jacobson Jim Obergefell 057 Rachel Notley Josefina Vidal Anthony Kennedy Chai Jing Yanis Varoufakis Eka Zguladze- THE ADVOCATES Gina McCarthy Ali Akbar Salehi Joanne Liu Marjan Minnesma Ernest Moniz Glucksmann Wai Wai Nu Boyan Slat Vladimir Putin Selahattin Demirtas Johnetta Elzie Kinlay Dorjee Sheikh Hasina Fei-Fei Li DeRay Mckesson Mohammed bin Salman Olga Russakovsky Peter Bloom 077 Ameenah Gurib-Fakim Erin Summers Mara Glennie Zainab Ghadiyali Lenore Zietsman THE CHRONICLERS Robyn Andreja Pejic Khadija Ismayilova Ayman Odeh Nick Bostrom Anas Aremeyaw Anas Catherine Murphy Sabeen Mahmud Raqqa Is Being Nicola Sturgeon Cecile Richards Margrethe Vestager Pierre Claver Mbonimpa Slaughtered Silently Iván Velásquez Li Tingting Alice Bowman Loretta Lynch Rebecca Gomperts Robin Hammond Shukria Barakzai Marlon James 064 Mário Macilau Johanna Schwartz THE ARTISTS Rosetta Mission Team Tania Bruguera Tobias Zielony María Magdalena Raif Badawi Leslee Udwin Campos-Pons Eka Kurniawan Sonita Alizadeh Matthew Heineman Banksy Chigozie Obioma Invisible Borders Carla Dirlikov Canales 084 Helly Luv Lin-Manuel Miranda THE MOGULS Fabrice Monteiro Rajan Anandan Njideka Akunyili Crosby Emily Leproust Fiona Hall Laura Mather Hanya Yanagihara Tawni Cranz Suzan-Lori Parks Shannon Schuyler Ara Oshagan Ayesha Khanna Levon Parian Vahagn Thomasian 044 Gene Luen Yang Mike Holmes THE PESSIMIST’S Adejoke Tugbiyele PROPHECY Serik Abishev by ADAM KIRSCH Adilkhan Yerzhanov 046 072 THE FOG OF CHANGE THE HEALERS by ROBIN WRIGHT George Church Robert Garry 062 Alexander Bukreyev Michelle Meyer POWER SURGE Mosoka Fallah by MARK GEVISSER Waleed Hassanein Illustration by MIKE McQUADE

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contents 11|12.2015 Sightlines Observation Deck 022 088 APERTURE MAPPA MUNDI Changing of the Guard The Making of the photographs by DENI ELLIS Modern Superheroine BÉCHARD by DAVID ROTHKOPF 028 090 THE THINGS THEY CARRIED NATIONAL SECURITY The Art Crime Investigator Cloak and Danger interview by HILLARY KELLY by JAMES BAMFORD 030 094 VISUAL STATEMENT ENERGY Free Bird Green Gamble by LAPIZTOLA by KEITH JOHNSON 032 INNOVATIONS 098 Robotic Roaches, ECONOMICS Ingestible Sensors, and a The Baby Benefits Club Bioelectric Nose by DEBORA L. SPAR by NEEL V. PATEL 114 034 THE EXCHANGE THE FIXER Michela Wrong and Out and About in Kigali Sam Hopkins on Africa’s interview by JULIA STEERS New Missionaries 116 THE FUTURIST Doom-and-Gloom Forecasting by JAKE SCOBEY THAL

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Sponsored Report CYPRUS From Recovery to Riches Cyprus has gone from boom to bust and back again in just a few years. The 2013 crisis prompted a firm response from the government, supported by large sections of society: take the bitter medicine and resolve problems quickly. Long a favored location for tourism, shipping, and finance, Cyprus now holds the promise of renewed growth, privatization opportunities, and an offshore energy boom.

Sponsored Report 02 Bouncing 03 WWW.PENINSULA-PRESS.COM back Just two years after a major crisis, Cyprus is enjoying the first fruits of a painful and ongoing adjustment. The economy is growing again, albeit slowly, the fiscal deficit is being reined in, and foreign investment is starting to reappear. Now privatization programs and the promise of offshore energy are bringing back the smiles. C“ yprus’s reform program ment of fiscal risks and public that lies in the Mediterranean almost double the aggregate remains a success,” In- administration reform. Criti- in the same way that the found- GDP by 2035. Main drivers ternational Monetary cal growth-enhancing reforms, ing fathers of the European would be tourism, construc- Fund (IMF) Deputy Managing including the public adminis- Union have transformed coal tion, financial services, trade, Director Mitsuhiro Furusawa tration reform and a privati- and steel into a common fac- transport, and gas exports via said in September, after a re- zation road map, have already tor of stability and peace for Turkey. view of the island’s progress. been initiated.” countries that were previously “Economic activity in the first enemies,” Foreign Afairs Min- “The main message is that half of the year has been better The finance ministry pre- ister Ioannis Kasoulides said. this is the time [to invest in than expected, and fiscal out- dicts economic growth of 0.5 Cyprus]. Next year it might be turns are running ahead of pro- percent this year and 1.4 per- Reunification of the island too late. Prices have started jections. Liquidity in the core cent in 2016. It’s a far cry from is under discussion with sup- rising already and there are banking system has continued the three years from 2012 port from the United States. huge opportunities in Cyprus to improve and the prospects through 2014 when the econ- Economists speak of a poten- now,” said Savvas Kakos, CEO for resolving non-performing omy shrank by a cumulative tial “peace dividend” that could of Quality Developments. O loans are improving.” 9.8 percent. Finance Minister Furusawa went on to say Harris Georgiades called 2015 that “the strong fiscal perfor- growth “sufficiently satisfac- mance is impressive.” Nev- tory” and ruled out additional ertheless, he cautioned, high taxes. On the contrary, he not- public debt, together with ed, the budget calls for a 5 per- sizeable contingent liabili- cent increase in spending with ties, warrants continued pru- “gradual and careful” steps to dence while ensuring support ease the tax burden. Unem- for growth-enhancing public ployment remains high but spending and the safety net. inflation is low and the fiscal “Reform efforts should fo- deficit has fallen from 5.8 per- cus on advancing public ad- cent of gross domestic product ministration, improving the (GDP) in 2012 to a projected 0.7 management of government percent this year and 0.2 per- guarantees, and strengthening cent next. revenue administration.” Speaking earlier, President Looking ahead, Cyprus Nicos Anastasiades said that hopes to kick-start an energy after a string of positive re- industry thanks to a sizeable views, the emphasis was now ofshore gas discovery. There’s on “advancing our structural a possibility the island could reform agenda, notably on tax cooperate with neighboring administration, the manage- countries and perhaps even involve Turkey. “Our vision is to transform the natural gas

Q&A Sponsored Report “A solution to the Cyprus problem may very well have positive ripple effects on our conflict-ridden neighborhood. Furthermore, the reunification of the island can unleash great economic potential for the local economy.” REUNIFICATION H.E. Nicos Anastasiades W hat is your assessment of the country and put it on new and sound COMING TOGETHER? President of the island’s new foundations. hydrocarbons discoveries in Cyprus has been inhabited for some A Man with its offshore exclusive economic zone? What is your position on the possible eleven thousand years. It was largely a Mission This discovery, and the prospect of further reunification of Cyprus? settled from Greece but suffered waves of new discoveries, have renewed and Given developments in our region, as well conquerors, including Egyptians, Persians, Nicos Anastasiades, president of strengthened the strategic importance of the as world events, it really is time to do away and Romans, with brief spells under Cyprus since 2013, is a lawyer with Eastern Mediterranean, both economically with the artificial complacency related to the the Knights Templar and the Republic postgraduate studies in shipping and politically. Our vision—Cyprus’s vision—is current status quo in Cyprus and to finally of Venice before falling to the Ottoman law at University College London. that these discoveries will contribute negotiate a lasting solution. This would of Empire in the sixteenth century. Britain Born in 1946 and married with toward the transformation of the Eastern course be beneficial to all Cypriots, Turkey, took over in Victorian times, then a two daughters, he was elected to Mediterranean into an area of sustainable our immediate region, and, evidently, the postwar bid to establish an independent parliament in 1981 and in recent economic development, enhancing political international community. I believe that the unity government broke down and led years has challenged some stability and improving bilateral relations time is right, and I believe that we have to the installation of a United Nations members of his own broadly through synergies emerging from the already gone too long without a solution to (UN) peacekeeping force in 1964. Turkey center-right Democratic Rally party exploitation of hydrocarbons. Hydrocarbons the Cyprus problem. I believe that the new occupied the northern part of the island in by working toward reunification of could serve as a means to strengthen negotiating process we started last spring is 1974, leading to division and declaration of the island. regional energy security, attract foreign on the right track. What we aim to achieve as the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Addressing the UN General investments, and boost the economies of soon as possible is a comprehensive, viable, recognized only by Ankara. Assembly in September, the countries of the region to the benefit and and fair settlement of the Cyprus problem. Several attempts at international Anastasiades said: “I strongly well-being of their people. mediation have failed, but in April of believe that reaching a solution on What might this look like? 2015 pro-reunification candidate Mustafa the Cyprus problem can become a And do you see Cyprus becoming an energy It would be based on a bicommunal, bizonal Akinci was elected president in the north. paradigm of how diplomacy and center in the Eastern Mediterranean? federation with political equality, as set out He expressed that “[his] policy will be the adoption of a reconciliatory Certainly I do. Our strategic location, our in the relevant Security Council resolutions, focused on reaching a peace settlement. stance can contribute to the stable legal and financial environment, and the High-Level Agreements, and the Joint . . . This country cannot tolerate any more resolution of even the most our traditionally excellent relations with our Declaration of February 2014, with a single wasted time.” difficult international issues, neighbors all help create the best conditions international legal personality, a single prevailing over mistrust.” possible to make our vision a reality. We sovereignty, and a single citizenship. We also are in the process of discussing ideas and need to safeguard for Cyprus and all Cypriots plans with neighboring countries such as the principles upon which the European Union Egypt, Israel, and Jordan, and setting up is founded. I am totally committed to work the necessary legal and political framework tirelessly to this end. Cyprus can become a for this to work. Our natural resources in model for the wider region, and a solution hydrocarbons; the investments put or to to the Cyprus problem may very well have be put into their exploration, exploitation, positive ripple effects on our conflict-ridden development, and commercialization; and neighborhood. Furthermore, the reunification the proceeds from the export of natural gas of the island can unleash great economic could undoubtedly strengthen the economy potential for the local economy. O

Sponsored Report 04 Q&A 05 € WWW.PENINSULA-PRESS.COM € Irena Georgiadou Banking Chairwoman Hellenic Bank Climbing Out of a Hole W The crisis left a deficit of trust for many bank customers, but lessons have been learned; deposits and investors are returning. hat is your assessment of the Cyprus banking sector today? E ver since the 2012 finan- “In order to succeed and be able to become “The majority was a very an- Restoring the soundness of the financial cial crisis hit Cypriot a protagonist again, business cannot be as gry bunch of people who put sector was one of the three pillars of banks, survival has been usual. We all have to change and reinvent their money in the bank hav- the economic adjustment program. the name of the game. our business model, primarily as a country, ing earned it over their lifetime Cyprus had to restructure and downsize to make it competitive and sustainable.” and a lot of them lost it or their its financial sector, capitalize it, and “We have been shrinking the –Irena Georgiadou, provident fund was clipped. improve its governance and supervision. bank to strength,” said Bank Chairwoman of Hellenic Bank These were psychologically Today we can say with certainty that of Cyprus CEO John Hou- scarring experiences for those we have ticked all the boxes. The best rican, an award-winning Irish only “bail-in”—accounts over people. It will take a long time proof of this is the confidence displayed banker drafted in to help save €100,000 took a mandatory for them to get back to trusting by international investors who are the country’s largest financial haircut of 50 percent, with the institution and the state.” participating in the share capital of the institution in terms of market holders receiving shares now banks and of course the confidence of capitalization after the system worth a fraction of what they Curiously, not all Russian the depositors who are returning their sufered what he called “a mas- lost. Uninsured depositors in depositors have fled; they still money to the system. Because we were sive cardiac arrest.” the country’s second-largest represent a sizeable chunk of able to tick all the boxes, the capital bank lost everything when it business. And some interna- controls were completely lifted earlier Cyprus had an overlarge failed. tional capital is coming back, this year. banking sector, with assets val- albeit from investors with an ued at six times gross domestic Roundly critical of the EU appetite for risk. How was Hellenic Bank affected? product (GDP) before the crash. reaction, Hourican—who led Our recapitalization came from Banks were exposed to overlev- the recovery for two years— Hellenic Bank Chairwom- private international investors so we eraged real estate investors and says tiny Cyprus was used as an Irena Georgiadou noted did not have to resort to any state the Greek and Cypriot govern- an “experiment” that was un- that the smaller, recapital- aid. At the same time, as a bank we ments, while European Union fair for many ordinary Cypri- ized sector now has stronger made it a priority to raise the quality (EU) countries, in particular ots, and cost the sector its most governance: “Supervision was of governance and had recourse to Germany, were reluctant to see valuable asset: trust. strengthened primarily due to international advisors for this purpose. their own taxpayers put on the the fact that all the systemic hook to bail out depositors who “We inherited some very banks of the island, Hellenic You are one of the most powerful included many rich Russians angry customers,” he recalled. Bank being one of them, are women in Cyprus in a very male- stashing their cash in a low-tax supervised directly by the Eu- dominated sector. How do you see haven. The result was Europe’s ropean Central Bank.” that? Well, things have to change in Cyprus. It cannot be just business as usual. I suppose that being a woman at the top of a banking institution helps to send the message that nothing is as we used to know it and that we need drastic and disruptive changes in order to win this battle. O

Key Players Sponsored Report BANK OF CYPRUS Q&A Origins: establishment and operation of the Nicosia Savings Bank, 1899 Harris Georgiades Branches: 136 (130 in Cyprus, 1 in Romania, 4 in the United Kingdom, and 1 in the Channel Islands); Minister of Finance representative offices in Russia, Ukraine, and China Products and services: retail and commercial banking, finance, factoring, investment banking, “A vote of confidence brokerage, fund management, private banking, and general and life insurance Recent highlight: A €1 billion share capital increase was completed in September 2014, involving high- L in Cyprus” quality institutional investors such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and Wilbur Ross. This significantly strengthened the bank’s capital position; it passed the European et’s start with banking, which has been a major challenge Central Bank (ECB) Comprehensive Assessment in October 2014. for Cyprus . . . We have been promoting a very deep reform of the banking sector HELLENIC BANK for the last two years. Essentially, we now have a smaller banking sector but one that is better capitalized, better managed, and better Origins: started operations in 1976 supervised. Public finances were also a problem, burdening the private Branches: more than 60 in Cyprus, employing 1,400 people; representative offices in Russia (Moscow and sector. We also have debt. We are now essentially operating with St. Petersburg) Ukraine, and South Africa a balanced budget—no need to burden the private economy with Products and services: traditional banking products plus factoring, brokerage services, insurance, continuous deficits and debt, which eventually lead to taxes. portfolio management, investment banking, mutual funds, private banking, and custodial services Strategy: The bank has adopted a customer-centric structure to enable it to meet the differing What other major challenges do you currently face? requirements of its wide and diverse client base; a number of business divisions have been formed to Bureaucracy. Red tape. This is something that we as a government cater to particular client segments, supported by a number of corporate support units. consider to be one of the main drawbacks and something that is limiting entrepreneurship and local and foreign investment. We are not shying COOPERATIVE CENTRAL BANK away from the problem; we are identifying and acknowledging it. We are in the process of unveiling a plan that will simplify procedures, Origins: founded in 1937; began operations in 1938 simplify regulation, and see the merging of government services and Branches: 295 as of September 30, 2014, compared to 349 as of December 31, 2013; group employees in departments in an effort to deal with what is a real problem. Cyprus reduced to 2,707 from 2,973 on same dates Products and services: current and deposit accounts, loans, bank cards, insurance products, foreign Some international investors identify Cyprus with Greece. Is this fair? exchange, payments, company financing, and international trade How can Cyprus differentiate itself? Recent highlight: A restructuring plan was set up in March 2014; the bank was recapitalized with the I don’t think there is an identification; I think there is a very clear transfer of a €1.5 billion European Stability Mechanism (ESM) bond and the issue of corresponding differentiation. I hope that Greece will be able to move toward its own shares in favor of Cyprus government. Annual salaries were reduced by more than 15 percent; a recovery but I think we have clearly demonstrated, and it is perfectly voluntary retirement scheme was adopted by 304 employees resulting in a €12.9 million per annum understood, that our economy is a completely different jurisdiction. reduction in staff costs. Of course the traditional ties between Greece and Cyprus exist, but everyone realizes these are not translated into our economy being Echoing a common theme, and sustainable.” linked to theirs. For instance, when Greece was regrettably moving Georgiadou said that Cyprus The efforts are starting to toward the imposition of capital controls, we were fully lifting them. had learned a “big lesson” over As a result, deposits came in instead of leaving, and our economy the past two years: “In order to pay off. This September the was returning to positive ainternational capital markets. This is hard succeed and be able to become Standard & Poor’s (S&P) rat- evidence that the international investment community is expressing a a protagonist again, business ings agency raised its Cyprus vote of confidence in Cyprus and its economy and the efforts toward cannot be as usual. This ap- sovereign risk rating to BB-, economic recovery. We are even seeing an influx of new business, for plies not only to Hellenic Bank with a positive outlook. “While instance in shipping and other sectors. or the banking sector, but the we continue to view the bank- economy as a whole. We all have ing sector’s asset quality as a And Cyprus has a very pro-business government . . . to change and reinvent our key concern,” S&P said, “the Yes, we are a very pro-business administration, but moving beyond business model, primarily as a country’s economic and budg- the government of the day, Cyprus is a very business- and investment- country, to make it competitive etary performance exceed our friendly jurisdiction. For example, we went through the economic crisis expectations.” O without raising a single tax. No new taxes were imposed during these difficult years and there are no plans to raise new taxes that would burden either households or businesses. We were actually able to offer a series of tax incentives to encourage new investment. So we are a very business- and investment-friendly jurisdiction. At the same time, we openly acknowledge our shortcomings. We do not pretend that everything is perfect. This is a very honest approach. O





Sponsored Report 08 Q&A 09 WWW.PENINSULA-PRESS.COM John Hourican Banking CEO Bank of Cyprus Building the Future W As they pull out of the crisis, Cypriot banks grapple with the long-standing tradition of not paying debts on time. hat is your assessment of the Cyprus banking sector today? One of the biggest chal- with ample assets. But many a viable option, time to recover It is still in recovery. We have no capital lenges facing the Cyp- politicians opposed the law, and re-enter the market.” controls in place and we have a stability riot banking sector is painting it as a mechanism for of mood, albeit with lingering anger nonperforming loans (NPLs), banks to throw families onto He said the bank—now 99 from various groups as you might expect which stood at 47.8 percent in the street. percent owned by the Cyprus in an economy that has suffered so September, according to the government—was well capital- much, and we have the beginnings of Central Bank. For some banks, “I have great sympathy for ized to cover NPLs, and these economic recovery. The banking system the ratio is even higher. individuals in distress who could represent “a gold mine” is recapitalized and stable. There is a come and talk to us because if the situation could be re- growing local deposit base and we Earlier this year legislators we absolutely want to help,” solved positively. are seeing slight improvement in the voted to facilitate foreclo- said Bank of Cyprus CEO John nonperforming statistics, though there sures—a requirement of the Hourican. “We need to start The Co-op bank also does is still the issue of nonperforming loans. European Central Bank (ECB) driving up the behavior of our substantial business lending That is really important—we are going to for Cyprus to benefit from borrowers. . . . Banks will not re- to municipalities, many of solve that next. the ECB’s sovereign bond- cover and this country will not which can receive partial EU buying program. The new law recover unless we get back into financing for infrastructure How was Bank of Cyprus affected? protects mortgages of up to the habit of meeting our obliga- projects. However, he said, We reversed a lot of managerial €250,000 on a person’s prin- tions, when we borrow money.” the general lack of working strategies. Company tourism. We had cipal home, but beyond that capital since 2013 now made businesses in the Ukraine and Russia. We allows for repossession and Nicholas Hadjiyiannis, it di cult to structure such had businesses in Romania and Serbia. auction. It is designed to end chairman and acting CEO projects. These were not sensible expansions of a system whereby banks could of the Cooperative Central the bank’s base from Cyprus and we take twenty years to recover Bank, said his aim was to seek “The new regulatory re- reversed all that. The last big one we sold bad loans, even from people to revive the relationship with gime is very strict; we have was Russia. We sold Ukraine. We sold off debtors. His bank has no for- gone from one extreme to the pieces of our Romanian exposure. We “We need to start driving up the eign exposure but claims the other in terms of bureaucracy, will get it all down. We sold off things like behavior of our borrowers. . . . Banks biggest penetration of ordi- regulatory issues, and com- hedge funds we should not have been will not recover and this country will nary accounts among the local pliance,” Hadjiyiannis com- investing in. We got rid of our largest not recover unless we get back into the population. plained. “This is sufocating single nonperforming loan exposure in habit of meeting our obligations, when a small country and a small Serbia. we borrow money.” “At the Co-op, what we want banking system like ours. As John Hourican, to do with our NPLs is to re- a rule of thumb, we say that So now you are back in Cyprus . . . CEO of Bank of Cyprus structure and revive the rela- of every three euros being re- We are fundamentally focusing on the tionship we have, to put these paid, we need to lend at least Cypriot economy and our dominant distressed loan owners back one euro. This is not happen- position in it, lending and being here for into the credit cycle. You can- ing just now. We need to do it; the Cyprus population, and also for those not foreclose half the popula- otherwise we have a creditless who come here for what Cyprus offers as tion, so you need to give them recovery.” O a business destination in terms of offshore wealth preservation and so on. O

Sponsored Report Investment Q&A Haven with great opportunities Yiorgos Lakkotrypis A member of the European Union since 2004 and in the Minister of Energy, Commerce, eurozone since 2008, Cyprus offers foreign investors significant Industry and Tourism advantages. Not least are sunshine and favorable taxation. Cyprus is looking to broaden its traditional “sun-and-sea” tourism offering and wants T he government’s Cy- attractive tax systems, which the international gaming industry to invest in casinos. How is that progressing? prus Investment Pro- is nevertheless transparent Our ministry launched a tendering process for the Paralimni Marina, set up several golf motion Agency (CIPA), and fully compliant with EU courses, and approved legislation for an integrated casino resort. The casino would be the lists twenty-seven projects laws and regulations. CIPA first of its kind in Europe. It would operate under a single license, issued for thirty years ready for foreign investors. notes that dividend income, with exclusivity guaranteed for the first fifteen years. The casino we plan to build will Most are in tourism, not sur- most international transac- be different from the many smaller casinos that can be found in the rest of Europe. It is prising given the warm Medi- tions, profits from overseas going to be significantly larger and feature major attractions. The model we introduced terranean climate with vir- permanent establishments, is specifically aimed at improving tourism rather than introducing gambling into our tually year-round sunshine, and profits from the sale of society. Gambling will be but a small part of the entire range of offerings. sea bathing, and golfing. But securities are all tax-exempt, there are also residential de- and there is no withholding Are you looking to the major players in the Las Vegas casino market? velopments, medical cent- tax on dividend, interest, and Yes, we are looking at companies from Las Vegas and Asia as potential investors. Macau ers, educational institutions, royalties paid from Cyprus. is also considered. Many of the dominant market players have expressed interest in waste-fired and solar power Cyprus’s casino project. Since it is closely related to tourism and the development of generation, and high-end As a final sweetener, any- strategic infrastructure, the Ministry of Energy and Tourism’s best interest is to be in close shops and offices, plus the one taking up tax residency contact with potential investors. Promoting special-interest tourism like cycling, athletics, island’s traditional strength in Cyprus and earning over and sports is another of our concerns. O in shipping, the upcoming €100,000 a year now gets a privatizations, and the sig- ten-year, 50 percent exemp- Marios Demetriades nificant ofshore oil and gas tion from personal tax. Minister of Transport, discoveries. Communications and Works “Our clients say that Cy prus “Despite the financial pro- has an extremely good tax and What are the plans for information and communications technology (ICT) investment? gram that contains several legal system, with highly qual- Telecommunications and broadband are necessary in an economy that provides services. tax reforms, Cyprus main- ified people in all sectors, in- We are currently studying to implement a large project providing service to the home. This tains its position as a tax- cluding professional services,” project will be done by the private sector, but we have secured some funding from the e cient jurisdictional hub,” CIPA Director General Charis European Union. We will also do a study to see what is the best way to proceed with this lawyer Anastasios Antoniou Papacharalambous said, re- project. It is our intention to have the fastest possible internet with the lowest possible price. explained. “That aspect is piv- ferring to incoming investors. otal and integral in Cyprus’s “Everyone speaks English and And there’s a real commitment to bringing in the private sector? economy.” Cyprus ofers great quality of The government is trying to complete as many infrastructure projects as possible life, with clean air, the clean- with public-private participation. We formed a unit to deal with this and we are also The country prides itself on est water, and the lowest crime promoting a number of projects. The ministry is promoting a project at the marina. We having one of Europe’s most rate in Europe.” have other projects related to government roads. The second thing is, we are looking for new areas of growth. For example, we are strengthening our relationship with the > European Space Agency to help promote a number of Cyprus-based telecommunication companies. The third thing is antiquities. Antiquities? They come under this ministry. People visit Cyprus for sand, sea, and history. We are investing a lot in refurbishing museums. We are spending €50 million for a new museum in Nicosia. We need to promote our culture. We need to become more commercial in the way we think about antiquities. O

WWW.PENINSULA-PRESS.COMSponsored Report A Gas-Fired Chess Board 10 For centuries, the Eastern Med- larger ofshore gas fields. year, and could, in theory, meet 11 iterranean was essentially a Problems abound. The fields Cypriot needs for a long time, trade route. But suddenly, it has the country currently consumes NOT JUST GAS sprung onto the world stage as a are fairly close to each other in just one bcm per year. A pipeline potentially major energy source, the Levant Basin, where the serving solely Cyprus would be With so much attention on natural with important economic and three countries’ exclusive eco- utterly uneconomic. gas and the potential for Cyprus to geopolitical implications for nomic zones (EEZs) converge. become a hydrocarbons hub in the several countries. Today Cyprus This means that additional ex- Cyprus had hoped to split Eastern Mediterranean, it’s easy lies at the heart of a still-emerg- ploration could lead to cross- a pipeline with Israel to bring to overlook the electricity sector. ing energy chess board. Israel border discoveries. More im- the gas northward, across the But privatization of the Electricity and Egypt are the other players, mediately, the fields lie far out island and hence to Turkey and Authority of Cyprus (EAC) is moving Turkey claims a stake, and Russia in the Mediterranean. Aphro- possibly the European market. ahead, with a completion horizon of and the European Union have an dite is almost 200 km south of This could connect with exist- 2018 established under the EU-IMF interest in the outcome. Limassol, and while the field ing major pipelines from Russia. bailout agreement. One study has was declared commercially vi- Economically, everyone could reportedly suggested a partial The first major strike was able for production earlier this benefit, not least Turkey, which privatization whereby transmission Israel’s Leviathan field in 2010. remains a state function. A year later Cyprus discovered There are also plans to open up the smaller Aphrodite field, esti- the power market to incorporate mated at 129 billion cubic meters renewable energy sources and (bcm), equal to 4.54 trillion cu- independent energy producers. bic feet of gas. And very recently, Energy Minister Yiorgos Lakkotrypis Egypt announced a huge strike in described the new model as part the Zohr field, 30 percent larger of a broader effort that would than Leviathan. Experts describe “improve the market to the benefit it as potentially one of the world’s of consumers.”

Sponsored Report ruling out Egypt as a market for Q&A both Israel and Cyprus. Some would receive substantial tran- analysts suggest a solution Charis Papacharalambous sit fees. But such a solution hits could be to ship out the Aph- Director General, geopolitical snags, especially rodite gas in compressed form, CIPA the partitioning of Cyprus. which requires much less in- Turkey does not recognize the vestment than pipelines. Who invests in Cyprus? Cypriot EEZ. If you look at foreign investment into Cyprus over the past few years, you’ll see that most The Cyprus government sectors have some sort of geographical focus. The Americans are very active in energy and A Zohr point remains upbeat. Energy Min- now more recently in leisure—an American company has announced a large wellness- ister Yiorgos Lakkotrypis told medical-sports tourism venture. A significant number of hotels have changed hands and a Israel reportedly hoped to sell reporters recently that the lot of money is going into renovations and upgrades. Education is mostly British; shipping its gas to neighboring Egypt, country might even consider a is very much German oriented; real estate is to some extent Chinese and to some extent for domestic consumption and third round of oil and gas ex- Russian driven these days. Medical tourism is picking up slowly; there’s a lot of interest from possible export—Egypt has ploration tenders, despite low Israel. In terms of renewable energy, there are two very big projects in the pipeline. And U.S. IT unused gas liquefaction capac- international oil prices and companies and others are based in Cyprus, so this knowledge-based economy will grow in a ity. But the Zohr discovery has disappointing results in Cyp- direction the country should go. changed everything, potentially riot blocks close to Aphrodite, on the basis that the Zohr strike And shipping, which is a traditional Cypriot strength? would increase market interest Shipping is doing extremely well. Ship owners all over the world should be considering the in the region. qualities and the managed-tax system that was approved by the EU and Cyprus Shipping in 2010 (Law 44-I). With all the advantages Cyprus offers it’s no surprise that we’re the world’s second- The government is also opti- largest shipping management center. More than 20 percent of the world’s fleet is being managed mistic that Cyprus can become by Cypriot companies. It’s a huge sector, and we have seen a number of investments. O a hydrocarbons industry hub in the region, ofering an ideal operations base for exploration and production companies. O

WWW.PENINSULA-PRESS.COMSponsored Report Privatization 12 Telecoms and ports come first 13 CYTA Cyprus is pressing ahead with plans The Cyprus Telecommunications to raise money, pay down debts, and Authority (CYTA) provides voice and improve economic efficiency. data applications in both fixed and mobile telephony. Founded 1955, CYTA B ack in 2013, when Cy- encouragement of capital in- Cyprus Ports Authority (CPA), moved into mobile telephony in 1988 prus received a €10 bil- flows, and to help restore debt and various real estate and and has operated a network partnership lion bailout from the sustainability.” land assets. Bodies of minor agreement with Vodafone since 2004. European Central Bank and concern, such as the Cyprus It has been in digital and interactive TV the International Monetary The EU estimated the pri- Stock Exchange, could be also since 2004. The company offers Fund, the money did not come vatization plan would yield added later. broadband Internet and fixed-line without strings. One condition €1 billion, plus an additional services in Greece via a subsidiary called was a privatization plan. In an €400 million through 2018, “We can’t let CYTA re- Cytaglobal Hellas SA. analysis published that same by focusing on selling state- main the last organization in Market reports put the Cyprus mobile year, the EU said privatization owned enterprises and “semi- telecommunications in all of telephony sector at 1.1 million subscribers would help Cyprus “improve governmental organizations” Europe that operates as an in mid-2014, split roughly between economic efficiency through including telecoms company extension of the state govern- contract and prepaid, with CYTA the enhanced competition and CYTA, the Electricity Au- ment,” Finance Minister Har- leading player on a 66 percent share, thority of Cyprus (EAC), the ris Georgiades said in August followed by South Africa’s MTN. However, the reports—citing data from telecoms regulator OCECPR (Office of Electronic Communications and Postal Regulations)— suggested that CYTA was gradually losing share to its private-sector competitors, down from 81 percent in 2009.

LIMASSOL PORT Sponsored Report Famagusta was traditionally the island’s Spain Office largest port, but it lies in the northern, Paseo de la Castellana, 95 15º planta Turkish-occupied zone, and the title has Madrid 28046 shifted to Limassol—also known as Lemesos. Tel +34 91 418 50 32 Years of expansion have given Limassol www.peninsula-press.com 2,070 meters of quays with maximum draft USA Office of 16 m. In 2013 Limassol handled 3.2 million 1050 Connecticut Avenue, NW tons of cargo—41 percent of the country’s 10th floor, suite 1000 total—with 308,000 TEUs (twenty-foot Washington, DC 20036 equivalent units) of container traffic and Tel +1 202 772 1090 140,000 passengers. [email protected] Editor-in-Chief Stella Klauhs after the cabinet finally ap- The sell-of was opposed man Alecos Michaelides says Associate Director Mauro Perillo proved legislation to privatize by labor unions and CYTA he prefers to use the term Project Director Milena Golda the sixty-year-old company. staff. This led the govern- “commercialization”: “Pri- Production Eliana Lucio, Dora Skalicki ment to offer exit packages vatization is a word that im- Creative Director Marta Conceição The two-stage strategy that were taken up by 521 em- plies the selling of assets. This Writer Brian Nicholson sees CYTA initially convert- ployees and reduced 2014 op- is going to be a concession. We Photos Diplomatic Office of the ed into a private-law company erating profits by more than are not selling any assets from President of the Republic of Cyprus, that remains wholly owned by €27 million to €42.6 million, Cyprus Port Authority. We Fotolia (cover) the government, and then of- CYTA Chairman Christos are just giving a twenty-five- Illustrations Freepik.com fered in whole or part to one Patsalides said. Remaining year license to some investors or more private-sector inves- employees will be ofered the to come in and operate the This report was made possible with the support of: tors. Stage one should be com- option of staying on the state port for this period.” pleted by the end of 2015; stage payroll in some other branch www.antoniou.com.cy two wrapped up through 2017. of government, or moving to “A prequalification stage in However, Congress also had an eventual privatized CYTA 2015 generated interest from to OK the cabinet’s bill. with some form of shares many of the main operators of compensation. Reports also the world,” Michaelides, who “What it comes down to is said the government has as- is also permanent secretary that our proposal at this point sured unions it will take over at the Ministry of Transport, is not denationalization, but the CYTA pension fund at Communications and Works, the creation of a private-law privatization—the fund has said. “We have issued tenders company that will be fully lost a reported €209 million and prequalifications for state owned, [and] that even since 2013, mainly because three contracts—a container under state ownership will of bad investments and the terminal, a general cargo ter- be in a position to function financial crisis. minal, and maritime services. much more e ciently than it The general cargo terminal does today,” Georgiades said, At the Port of Limassol, Cy- also includes operation of the apparently seeking to answer prus Ports Authority Chair- passenger terminal.” O fears from workers.



APERTURE THE THINGS VISUAL STATEMENT INNOVATIONS THE EXCHANGE From WWII to Iraq, The wings of refu- Health sensors Michela Wrong transgender sol- THEY CARRIED gees, clipped you swallow, and Sam Hopkins diers haven’t been The tool kit by tough migration robotic roaches on Africa’s new a phenomenon— required to go policies, cannot that spy, and a new NGO missionaries but a part of U.S. undercover and carry people method of sniffing and the gospel they history. | P. 22 rescue stolen to freedom. | P. 30 out pollution. | P. 32 preach. | P. 34 Rembrandts. | P. 28 “Everyone, everywhere deserves to move freely, to seek new paths.” | P. 30 Illustration by JORDAN DOMONT FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 21

aperture photographs by DENI ELLIS BÉCHARD Changing of the Guard The Pentagon’s recent announcement that it is moving to allow transgender men and women to enlist openly— perhaps as early as next year—signaled a transformative moment for the armed forces. But to photojournalist Deni Ellis Béchard, the emphasis on the military’s future conveniently neglected its past: the transgender veterans who have served in all U.S. wars, but who often felt, and con- tinue to feel, dismissed and marginalized. Researchers at the University of California, Los Angeles estimate that some 15,000 active-duty service mem- bers, reservists, and National Guard members—and 134,000 living veter- ans—identify as transgender. Yet of the transgender vets canvassed in a 2008 study from the Palm Center, a California think tank, 97 percent said they did not transition until after leaving the military. Robina Asti, shown here in her Manhat- tan apartment, joined the U.S. Navy in 1938 at age 17, flew air campaigns over the Pacific—and transitioned 30 years after ending her military career. Béchard traveled to Sacramento, Bos- ton, New Jersey, and New York City, docu- menting vets who represented the United States in conflicts from World War II to Vietnam to Afghanistan. “Transgender veterans are not an aberration or a recent phenomenon,” Béchard says. “They are part of American history.”

SIGHTLINES FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 23

aperture JENNIFER BLAIN, 33 BRANCH: Army SERVED: 2005-2009 DEPLOYMENTS: none TRANSITIONED: 2010 RESIDENCE: Massachusetts POST MILITARY LIFE: poet, homeless-shelter volunteer, advocate for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) veterans.

SIGHTLINES GENE SILVESTRI, 38 SAGE FOX, 42 BRANCH: Army BRANCH: Army SERVED: 2002-2003 SERVED: 1994-1998, DEPLOYMENTS: none 2008-2013 TRANSITIONED: 2010 DEPLOYMENTS: Haiti, Kuwait RESIDENCE: California TRANSITIONED: 2013 POST MILITARY LIFE: mem- RESIDENCE: California ber of four LGBT veterans’ POST MILITARY LIFE: Army organizations, including the Individual Ready Reserv- Transgender American ist, IT manager, LGBT and Veterans Association (TAVA). veterans activist, executive vice president of TAVA, Sac- ramento LGBT Community Center board member.

aperture JANICE JOSEPHINE CARNEY, 5 BRANCH: Army SERVED: 1969-1972 DEPLOYMENTS: Germany, Vietnam TRANSITIONED: 2001 RESIDENCE: Massachusetts POST MILITARY LIFE: essayist, poet, activist. JENNIFER MARIE LONG, 50 BRANCH: Army SERVED: 1983-2012 DEPLOYMENTS: Afghanistan, Cuba, Iraq, Kuwait TRANSITIONED: 2012 RESIDENCE: New Jersey POST MILITARY LIFE: insur- ance and financial services specialist, transgender rights activist, commander of local Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW) post, member of VFW state legislative committee.

























SPONSORED REPORT PANASONIC Panasonic’s sustainability efforts largely focus on greening its materials and supply chain, buildings and manufacturing processes, packaging and shipping systems, and reducing power consumption in its products as well as its operations. The company emphasizes the reduction of CO2 emissions and recycling-oriented manufacturing. Panasonic’s work on Fujisawa Sustainable Smart Town Project outside Tokyo serves as an example of designing for disaster resistance, safety, and environmental responsibility. Panasonic and its partner companies have designed a community that uses smart tech to enhance healthcare, com- munications, security, financial interactions and other lifestyle experiences. HITACHI TOYOTA Hitachi has installed a battery energy stor- Toyota debuted the Mirai, a zero-emission, age system called “CrystEna” into the PJM fuel cell sedan in California in 2015. The Ancillary Services market, a regional electric- Mirai is an electric vehicle that creates power ity coordinator for 13 states and the District on board using hydrogen and oxygen while of Columbia. Each CrystEna container holds emitting nothing but water vapor, and it has more than 1,600 lithium-ion batteries and an estimated driving range of 312 miles on can store enough energy to supply the aver- a single fill of hydrogen. Toyota’s Kentucky plant, its largest in the U.S., recently began age Japanese residence for a month and a drawing on methane gas from solid waste at a local landfill as part of its power supply. The half. The CrystEna unit was first installed in process reduces the amount of harmful methane-produced C4 greenhouse gases that get Somerdale, New Jersey, at a shopping mall to into the air and provides enough clean energy to manufacture 10,000 vehicles. demonstrate its performance before bringing it to the commercial market. SOLAR PANELS TRADITIONAL POWER ENERGY STORAGE Traditional power grids rely on energy from sources such as coal and natural gas, the burning of which U.S. company Enphase releases harmful emissions. Microgrids composed of Energy is working with solar, wind, and other renewable energy sources help Japan’s ELIIY Power decrease the amount of power being drawn from the Co. on a battery storage traditional supply, reducing emissions and helping system that could help communities use energy more efficiently. power private residences and take them off the grid. ELECTRIC VEHICLE SERVICE EQUIPMENT Electric vehicle service equipment (EVSE) allow drivers to recharge their cars from their own homes. EVs such as the Toyota Mirai and Nissan Leaf reduce harmful emissions and lower consumers’ dependency on oil for gasoline.

THE YEAR OF CHANGING OUR MINDS

THE LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS OF 2015 THE DECISION MAKERS If the events of last year—from the rise THE CHALLENGERS of the Islamic State to Russia’s inva- THE INNOVATORS sion of Ukraine—harbingered the frac- THE ADVOCATES turing of the world, then 2015 showed THE ARTISTS that some wounds can in fact be healed. THE HEALERS Historic agreements with Iran, Cuba, THE STEWARDS and Greece all emerged from months, THE CHRONICLERS even decades, of hard-fought, spir- THE MOGULS ited negotiations. Common ground, whether political, economic, or moral, Illustration by MARK SMITH ultimately bested the power of differ- ence. Other stories showed that pub- lic opinion, no matter how seemingly intransigent, can change: In both the United States and heavily Catholic Ire- 42 land, for instance, same-sex marriage 48 is now legal. Yet despite this head- 54 way, the work of curing what ails the 57 world is not done. The Global Think- 64 ers on these pages represent how the struggle—from Raqqa to Washington, 72 Athens to Kabul—continues. While 74 some of them are impediments, many 77 more have generated ideas that could 84 promise humankind a better future.

ANGELA MERKEL MARGOT WALLSTRÖM CHANCELLOR FOREIGN MINISTER GERMANY SWEDEN FOR TRASHING FOR DETAILING WORTHLESS A FEMINIST REFUGEE POLICY. FOREIGN POLICY. THE Getting to yes is rarely easy. This year, In August, Angela Merkel’s Margot Wallström, for cease-fires and however, diplomats and politicians came DECISION MAKERSadministration stopped enforc- Sweden’s foreign min- peace-building through together to open long-closed doors in ing the Dublin Regulation, ister, unabashedly pro- our development coop- Iran and Cuba, bring Greece back from WALLSTRÖM: JONATHAN NACKSTRAND/AFP/GETTY IMAGESwhich in most cases stipulatesmoted women’s rightseration with Syrian civil the precipice of collapse (for now, at that European Union countries in international afairs society, worth 50 mil- least), and address a refugee crisis of deport refugees to the coun- this year. Wallström lion kronor [$5.7 million] epic proportions. Other Global Thinkers try through which they entered publicly criticized Saudi per year. In the longer made headlines for forging a feminist the continent. The rule has Arabia’s rights record, term, the government foreign policy, tackling climate change been criticized as inhuman for after which the kingdom has taken the initiative despite a poor country’s economic lim- evicting refugees from their recalled its ambassador to start a network of itations, and seeking to place science at desired destinations, as well from Stockholm. With- Swedish women medi- the heart of national development. For as for overburdening EU bor- out much delay, Swe- ators who, in two years’ good or evil, this cohort held some of the der countries. Merkel has also den completely nixed time, will be ready to world’s most important keys. strategically used her country’s its long-term—and assist in peace negotia- weight and influence to take lucrative—arms agree- tions around the world.” aim at other European states, ment with Riyadh. FOR- such as Hungary, which EIGN POLICY spoke with “ANY KIND OF sexual have failed to take their Wallström about Saudi abuse in a U.N. con- share of refugees. Arabia’s flogging of text is unacceptable, writer and fellow Global not least in peacekeep- Thinker Raif Badawi, ing missions where the women’s roles in con- local population may be flict resolution, and U.N. especially vulnerable. All accountability for sexual allegations of this kind violence. must be properly inves- tigated. It is crucial that “PROMOTING and non-uniformed U.N. respecting universal personnel are also sub- human rights is a cor- ject to measures. I wel- nerstone of Swedish come the fact that the foreign policy. Corporal secretary-general has punishment is unac- taken a strong stance ceptable and not in against sexual exploita- conformity with rele- tion and paved the way vant international con- for the implementation ventions on human of a zero-tolerance pol- rights. Around the icy. Whistleblowers play world, we see too many an important role in this. examples of threats We need to combine against free speech. I eforts to break silence truly believe that media and combat impunity, freedom makes societ- by improving efective ies stronger.” mechanisms for the protection, security, and “WOMEN’S meaningful dignity of both survivors participation in peace and witnesses.” processes leads to more sustainable peace. Tunisia has given us a good example, as has Colombia. Sweden sup- ports Syrian women’s networks and women’s participation in local and international processes Illustration by PAUL RYDING

BEN RHODES & RICARDO ZUNIGA; YANIS VAROUFAKIS ROBERTA JACOBSON & JOSEFINA VIDAL FORMER FINANCE MINISTER DIPLOMATS GREECE WASHINGTON, D.C.; CUBA FOR COMBATING FOR BRIDGING THE THE TROIKA. STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A lingering chapter of the Cold War closed example, Fidel Castro’s public call for the In this year’s dramatic In bailout talks, Varo- in December 2014, when the United States relinquishing of U.S. control of Guantánamo political battle between ufakis’s controversial announced it would re-establish full rela- Bay, which the United States isn’t prepared Greece and the Euro- views and fiery per- tions with Cuba. Leading the reconciliation to accept). Yet they still laid the groundwork pean Union, no one sonality riled EU rep- were two White House aides, Ben Rhodes for a new era of cooperation: In July, both fought more fervently resentatives, and he and Ricardo Zuniga, who spearheaded more countries reopened their respective embas- than Yanis Varoufakis resigned in July, hoping than 70 hours of secret talks with Havana on sies in Havana and Washington for the first did. The Greek finance that excusing himself previously intractable issues such as pris- time in a half-century. minister from the left- from the negotiating oner swaps and easing economic sanctions. ist Syriza party blamed table would facilitate a austerity measures for deal to salvage Greece’s In 2015, the State Department’s Roberta plunging his country economy. But when the Jacobson and the Cuban Foreign Minis- into its worst recession subsequent agreement try’s Josefina Vidal seized the diplomacy since World War II. He called for more auster- baton, meeting to hash out the détente’s demanded a new eco- ity, Varoufakis set his nuts and bolts. They sometimes clashed nomic path—namely sights on his former (on both countries’ harboring of fugitives, debt forgiveness and Syriza colleagues. In a for instance) and faced complex politics (for restructuring—and was September interview quick to criticize Euro- with CNBC, he said, pean creditors: “What “A 10-year-old with they’re doing with some basic mathe- Greece has a name: matics skill … knows terrorism,” he told a that [the deal] cannot Spanish newspaper. end well.” ALI AKBAR SALEHI & VLADIMIR PUTIN Russian President Vladimir Putin launched ERNEST MONIZ airstrikes in Syria this September, purport- PRESIDENT edly to protect Moscow’s interests. But HEAD, ATOMIC ENERGY ORGANIZATION RUSSIA Putin is also angling to add a new feather OF IRAN; ENERGY SECRETARY to his cap—that of mediator—so he has IRAN; WASHINGTON, D.C. FOR PLAYING couched the operation in careful language: PEACEMAKER BY “The only aim is to aid in establishing FOR FIGHTING SCIENCE DROPPING BOMBS. peace,” Putin said at a forum in October, WITH SCIENCE. the same month he welcomed Syrian Presi- dent Bashar al-Assad in Moscow to discuss PUTIN: MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/AFP/GETTY IMAGES Diplomats received much of the credit for this a political solution to the crisis. (Moscow year’s historic nuclear deal between Iran and world has insisted its strikes have targeted the powers. Yet it was two physicists who negotiated Islamic State; Washington says they’ve hit the science required to advance the big-picture anti-regime forces, while Human Rights politics. Ali Akbar Salehi of the Atomic Energy Watch has documented civilian deaths.) Organization of Iran and U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz joined the talks in 2014, employing Consequently, Putin’s Kremlin-measured their expertise to resolve a debate over what lim- approval rating has moved to a high of nearly its to place on the Islamic Republic’s centrifuge 90 percent. On a global scale, he has strength- program. This year, they ironed out an innovative ened Assad, poised Russia as critical to any and breakthrough agreement—limiting not only peace deal, and, as CNN put it, “scor[ed] Iran’s production of uranium but also plutonium, points against … America.” which provides a much quicker path to a bomb— and contributed to the deal’s provisions for more robust scientific cooperation in fields from nuclear fusion to cancer therapy. Illustration by JAMES DAWE FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 43

THE everything outstanding, excellent, individ- PESSIMIST’S ual, select, and choice,” Vargas Llosa laments PROPHECY “the democratization of culture,” which “has had the undesired effect of trivializing and WHY EUROPEAN INTELLECTUALS’ DESPAIR COULD cheapening cultural life.” HERALD THE CONTINENT’S NEX T WAVE OF DANGEROUS POLITICS. By ADAM KIRSCH The new cultural pessimism—the belief that European civilization has left its glory Is it still possible to believe in Europe? If intuition of its own disappearance. What days behind—is in part a reflection of real- you ask the hundreds of thousands of Syr- he calls “eschatological self-awareness” has world challenges. It is not news that Euro- ian refugees who crossed its borders this been a constant since the Middle Ages, when pean institutions are deeply beleaguered year—even into Greece, as Syriza and the Christianity dwelled on visions of the apoc- by mass immigration, economic stagnation, troika traded blows over the nation’s fal- alypse. In light of the horrors of the 20th Russian aggression, and the consequent rise tering economy—the answer is clearly century, “a belief in the termination of the of far-left and far-right parties hostile to the yes. Certainly compared with that of the European idea and of its habitations is almost liberal consensus embodied in the European 1920s and 1930s, the Europe of 2015 is a a moral obligation,” Steiner writes. In his Union. Yet the pessimists are focused less on vision of paradise. In less than a century, view, with Europe’s supremacy ended, the concrete solutions to these problems than on the continent has progressed from fascism, continent’s only hope is to cultivate ironic the fear that Europe lacks the energy and con- depression, and war to largely unbroken indifference and serve as a sophisticated, fidence to tackle them. It is no wonder, then, democracy, prosperity, and peace. secular rebuke to American culture. that the talk of decline so often crystallizes around the subject of demography, where the So it is all the more striking that, recently, For Peruvian writer Mario Vargas Llosa, intuition of Europe’s demise is most dramat- there has been a revival in European discourse who became a Spanish citizen in 1993, even ically played out. With its falling birthrate, of some of the most ominous and despair- that supporting role on the world stage is Christian Europe cannot reproduce itself, ing ideas of the interwar period. Not since beyond Europe’s grasp. The burden of his the cultural pessimists note. As they see it, the post-World War I era, when German phi- 2015 book, Notes on the Death of Culture, is “Eurabia”—to use the title of a 2005 paranoid losopher Oswald Spengler’s The Decline of that Western culture—which has spread tract by the pseudonymous, Egyptian-born the West convinced a broad readership that from its European birthplace to encompass British writer Bat Ye’or—is a possible future. Europe was doomed, have European intellec- much of the world—is intellectually and mor- tuals been so seduced by the tropes of cultural ally bankrupt, with no right to any kind of An increasingly visible group of Euro- pessimism—the conviction that they are part leadership. On every count, he consciously pean intellectuals blames that potent- of a dying civilization. The danger is that such reiterates the indictment made by José ial outcome on Europeans themselves— apocalyptic feelings will set the stage, as they Ortega y Gasset in his 1930 classic, The specifically, on their inability and unwilling- did a century ago, for apocalyptic politics. Revolt of the Masses. Where Ortega y Gas- ness to resist such a fate. In his 2010 best- set complained that “the mass”—the newly seller, Deutschland schafft sich ab (Germany In The Idea of Europe, published this year, enfranchised populations of democratic Is Abolishing Itself), Thilo Sarrazin blamed literary critic George Steiner notes that the Europe—“crushes everything different, what he saw as Germany’s lax immigration continent has always been haunted by an policy and timid acquiescence to multicul- turalism for allowing a threatening Muslim population to grow in its midst. Similarly, in France, Éric Zemmour’s popular 2014 book, Le Suicide français—whose title echoes Sar- razin’s—attacks the French cultural elite for undermining national pride, leaving the country unable to defend itself against social ills, among which the author counts immigration. With his newly translated novel, Submis- sion, Michel Houellebecq gives Europeans’ self-accusatory anger a new direction. His merits as a novelist may be debatable, but the best-selling French author is undeni- ably a brilliant diagnostician of Western European despair. Submission imagines a near-future France in which the leading par- ties are the anti-immigrant National Front and the newly founded Muslim Brother- 44 NOV | DEC 2015 Illustration by MARK SMITH

hood, which promises to Islamize the coun- SHEIKH HASINA Although Bangladesh was among the first produces just 0.3 per- developing countries try. And Houellebecq suggests that if this is PRIME MINISTER cent of global emis- to create a climate BANGLADESH sions, rising oceans change strategy. It a battle for the soul of France, it is one that could displace more has since pledged in a FOR ADAPTING than 18 million of constitutional amend- the French secretly long to lose. The Muslim TO THE CHALLENGE its citizens by 2050. ment to preserve nat- AS HER COUNTRY Refusing to sit idly ural resources and candidate wins the election with the backing DROWNS. by, Prime Minister has equipped mil- Sheikh Hasina has lions of off-the-grid of the Socialist Party, which will do anything made environmental homes with solar protection a national power. It now sets to fend off a victory by the National Front’s priority—which won aside 6 to 7 percent her a U.N. Champion of of its annual budget Marine Le Pen. Immediately, the French the Earth prize this fall. for climate change In 2009, Bangladesh adaptation. adjust: Non-Muslims are forbidden from teaching in schools, women go veiled, and plural marriage becomes the law of the land. Mischievously, Houellebecq shows his cast of French academics and intellectu- als settling into this new order as into a MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN warm bath. Western society, the author DEFENSE MINISTER SAUDI ARABIA has always said, makes its denizens miser- FOR SPEARHEADING A HAWKISH TURN. able, with its hypersexuality, its unrelenting individualism, and its empty consumer- ism. The return of patriarchy, under the guise of Islam, restores to France a sense of personal and cosmic order. “Europe had already committed suicide,” Houellebecq writes; the advent of Islam merely buries a civilization that was already dead. This vision of Europe as a home for spir- itual invalids, ripe for conquest by a more vital civilization, has deep roots. More than a century ago, Friedrich Nietzsche foresaw the rise of “the last men,” a tame and timid race addicted to physical pleasures and fear- ful of all forms of greatness. The intellec- tuals who supported fascism in the 1920s were seduced by its promises of restoring European vitality, its noisy cult of youth and strength. Today’s diagnoses of European cultural suicide could be preparing the way Since taking over in January as Saudi Arabia’s defense minister, Mohammed bin Salman, for better or for worse, has championed aggressive military action against regional enemies—and redefined the country’s for a similar reaction. If Europeans are told role in the Middle East. The young prince has led the kingdom’s war against Iranian-backed forces in Yemen, proving that Riyadh is willing to sacrifice blood and treasure to drive Tehran’s influence from the Arab world. often enough that their civilization is com- But his sway over domestic politics has been just as notable. As the king’s favored son, he controls Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, inking several deals with Russia this summer. The New York Times has ventured mitting suicide, one day they will decide to that he has “accumulated more power than any prince has ever held.” fight back against the immigrants and elites who are allegedly responsible. What Europe needs now is what it failed AMEENAH GURIB FAKIM to find a hundred years ago: vigorous, com- PRESIDENT MAURITIUS PRINCE MOHAMMED: MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AFP/GETTY IMAGES mitted defenders of liberalism and interna- FOR APPLYING tionalism who can explain that peace does A SCIENTIFIC METHOD TO DEVELOPMENT. not equal weakness or passivity and that cos- In June, despite no previous political expe- The United States invests around 3 percent of rience, she became the island nation’s first mopolitanism is not merely a surrender to its GDP in science research. South Korea spends female president—and one of Africa’s most nearly 4 percent. But for many African states, vocal ambassadors for science funding. She demographic forces, but is the essence and laments Mauritian President Ameenah Gurib- has pledged to buoy domestic employment Fakim, that number remains under 1 percent. and boost wages by investing in bioparks and strength of European culture itself. Other- technology sectors. She also helped launch the Alliance for Accelerating Excellence in wise, Europe’s pessimism will turn out to Science in Africa, which plans to invest $100 mil- lion in research and to ensure that Africans— be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Q not Western powers—set science goals in the continent’s labs. ADAM KIRSCH is a poet and critic. He is the author, most recently, of Rocket and Light- ship: Essays on Literature and Ideas. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 45

THE FOG This year, Iran illustrates the den- OF CHANGE sity of change. For almost two gen- erations—through six American THE IRAN DEAL IS HISTORIC AND PRAGMATIC. presidencies—relations between the BUT IT ISN’T RE VOLUTIONARY. United States and Iran have been toxic. By ROBIN WRIGHT Revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini warned against “Westoxication,” Those clarion pivots—Nelson Mandela’s walk or infection by foreign culture and political to freedom or the fall of the Berlin Wall—are ideas. In 1979, he praised the Iranian stu- enchanting. It’s tempting simply to credit a visionary dents who seized the U.S. Embassy in Teh- leader, the human spirit, or a historical trajectory. ran (to the students’ surprise, prolonging Change, however, is often foggier. It takes the crisis) after Washington agreed to take a convergence of causes also selfish, crudely in the ailing shah. Khomeini pronounced, commercial, strategically pragmatic, and more “America is the Great Satan, the wounded reactive than altruistic. In apartheid South Africa snake”—a label that stuck. Final negotia- and the communist states of Eastern Europe, tions to free the 52 diplomats were so tor- isolating societies and economies indefinitely tured that American and Iranian envoys proved too expensive, too impractical, too unsus- wouldn’t meet in the same country, much tainable. After a war that killed millions of less the same room. people, Washington and Hanoi restored relations over the economic lures of new Asian markets for Yet this July 14, top U.S. and Iranian dip- America and of foreign investment for Vietnam. lomats shook hands to seal a deal to check Despite enduring ideological differences, they Iran’s ability to make a nuclear bomb. Over also shared a common fear of a rising China. 20 months of talks, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister 46 NOV | DEC 2015 Mohammad Javad Zarif spent more time with each other than with any other for- eign leader. Relationships bloomed across their staffs. After 36 years—almost twice as long as it took for the United States and Vietnam to restore relations—minds had changed: This August, 76 percent of Ira- nians surveyed said they approved of the deal with the Great Satan. The United States likes to claim credit for forcing Iran to the negotiating table under the most punitive international sanctions ever imposed on any country. Many other factors intersected, however, to produce conditions conducive to real diplomacy. It was a long slog to coopera- tion—and one that’s far from over. Change can be change without being a pivot. IRAN’S SHIFT WAS partly due to the natural course of revolutions. The feverish early rage inevitably fades, priorities change, and zeal fizzles, as Harvard University historian Crane Brinton chronicles in The Anatomy of Revolution. The original movement frag- ments into factions that no longer speak or see as one; rivalries emerge over what the future will be and who will control it. The Islamic Republic is no exception. Consider the case of Mohsen Mirdamadi, one of three ringleaders of the U.S. Embassy Illustration by MARK SMITH

seizure in 1979. He later led the Islamic Iran But Iran’s evolution isn’t the only factor sectarian tensions as much as at any time Participation Front, the country’s largest that facilitated this summer’s agreement. since the original schism 14 centuries ago. reform movement. He was elected to parlia- Diplomacy was never just about Iran’s Iran is the world’s largest predominantly ment in 2000 and became head of its foreign nuclear program, whatever the rhetoric. Shiite country, but Shiites are only about affairs committee. Although he was unre- It was also, implicitly, about the future of 15 percent of the Islamic world’s 1.5 billion pentant about the hostage crisis, he started the morphing Middle East. The first mod- members. In a numbers game, against promoting a dialogue with Washington more ern theocracy feels threatened by a grow- Sunni powers or militias, Iran could be than a decade ago. “Our emphasis originally ing array of rivals: al Qaeda, the Islamic the loser. Already, from Tehran’s van- was on winning independence from foreign State (which in 2014 came within 25 miles tage point, the so-called Shiite crescent— influence and creating an Islamic state,” he of Iran’s border), al-Nusra Front, the resur- running from Tehran through Bagh- told me in 2000. “But today our emphasis is gent Taliban, and dozens of smaller mili- dad and Damascus to Beirut—is being on freedoms.… Our tactics have shifted too. tias. In an interview a month after nuclear replaced by a Sunni circle surrounding Before, we carried out a revolution. Today, talks began in 2013, Ibrahim Asgharzadeh, the Islamic Republic. we’re trying evolution.” another ringleader of the U.S. Embassy takeover, described these groups as form- “Iran is a lonely country and a lone coun- In 2004, the Guardian Council, which ing a “cancerous tumor.” The regional map try,” Abbas Maleki, a former deputy foreign vets candidates, banned Mirdamadi from today faces more changes than at any time minister, told me when the nuclear diplo- running for office again. In 2009, during since its borders were defined a century macy started. As a result, despite stubborn the Green Movement protests over elec- ago, and while the United States and the Persian nationalism, Tehran now seeks bet- tion fraud, he was arrested. He was tried in Islamic Republic compete for influence, ter ties with the West, both to balance the a mass, Stalin-esque event along with 100 often supporting rival parties, they also strategic scales and to prevent the United former officials, including a vice president, now share a broader strategic goal: prevent- States and Europe from siding solely with cabinet members, and presidential advi- ing the Middle East from disintegrating Sunni governments. sors, on charges of being mohareb (God’s into dozens of unstable mini-states. “We enemy). He was sentenced to six years in have common ground in fighting terror- Undoubtedly, economic hardship has prison—a hostage-taker taken hostage. He ism,” Asgharzadeh told me. also been a major factor in Iran’s decision- was released a month before the nuclear making. But Tehran assumes more of deal was sealed. The new flash points have deepened the blame than U.S. sanctions do. During the two terms of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran earned around half of all petroleum revenues since oil was dis- covered under its soil in 1908. Yet his gov- ernment blew threw it—with irresponsible fiscal policies, mismanagement, waste, shoddy public projects, and corruption. The value of the rial was halved. Inflation exceeded 40 percent, with some people claiming that it went as high as 60 per- cent. In 2013, Hassan Rouhani won a six- way presidential race by promising to fix the economy and conclude the nuclear dispute. Shortly after taking office, he acknowledged on national television that Iran’s coffers were virtually empty. Sanc- tions only compounded Tehran’s failings. Within two months of taking office, Rou- hani embraced diplomacy—and spent 15 minutes on the phone with U.S. President Barack Obama. Epic excesses, however, were not the final cause of change in Iran. The gov- ernment of God also plummeted to Earth because of its successes, most notably in shaping its flock. After the revolution, the ruling clerics called on Iranian women to breed an Islamic generation. They did: The population grew some 55 percent FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 47

EPIC EXCESSES, The United States was driven by realpolitik THE HOWEVER, WERE NOT considerations too. The rise of the Islamic THE FINAL CAUSE State imperiled America’s eight-year invest- CHALLENGERS OF CHANGE IN IRAN. ment in Iraq and created a new threat, to the THE GOVERNMENT region and the homeland, more dangerous OF GOD ALSO than al Qaeda. The Arab Spring exposed the PLUMMETED TO frailty or vulnerability of all 22 Arab govern- EARTH BECAUSE OF ments, including key allies, without present- ITS SUCCESSES, ing viable alternatives. Iran, by comparison, MOST NOTABLY IN appeared more stable. SHAPING ITS FLOCK. In groping for solutions to regional con- flicts, Tehran was ever a factor for Amer- ica. In Iraq, U.S. and Iranian advisors who once targeted each other suddenly found themselves supporting the same side. Meanwhile, going to war with Iran over its nuclear program was neither appeal- ing nor popular. On a balance sheet, diplo- macy with Iran was cost-efficient, the least bad option. THE NUCLEAR DEAL may be historic, but that in a decade. The regime soon realized it clarion moment of change has not yet been couldn’t feed, clothe, house, educate, and eventually employ these numbers of peo- reached. Suspicion between the two coun- ple, so it reversed course with a drastic fam- ily-planning program. Clerics preached tries still runs deep. Since July 14, Supreme the benefits of limiting children per fam- ily to two (the average was then about six). Leader Ali Khamenei has regularly spewed Thousands of women were recruited to go door to door to reinforce the message. anti-American vitriol on his Twitter Everything was made free: condoms, birth control pills, Norplant, tubal ligations, and account and in public appearances. “We vasectomies. The campaign worked; the birthrate plummeted. will not allow the U.S. to influence [our] Yet today, the baby boom from the economy or politics or culture. We will 1980s—close to 20 million people now between 25 and 35 years old—accounts for stand against such penetration with all more than half the electorate. It formed the backbone of the Green Movement protests. our power,” he said in an August speech. It is far more engrossed in generating tech start-ups than debating the ideal Islamic On the anniversary of the U.S. Embassy state; it gets globalization and wants to be part of it. Over the next 50 years, it will takeover this November, more than 190 be the largest determinant on almost any political or social issue. members of Iran’s parliament issued a The original revolutionaries, now in statement vowing, “The martyr-nurtur- their 60s and 70s, can’t afford to ignore public sentiment and consumer demands ing nation of Iran is not at all prepared to among society’s largest sector without endangering their own survival. The baby abandon the slogan of ‘Death to America’ boomers’ thirst to live a normal life in a normal country was thus a factor in Iran’s under the pretext of a nuclear agreement.” decision to sit at the table with the Great Satan’s envoys. And the Islamic Republic still holds four Americans of Iranian descent—a Wash- No belief was too deep-seated, no institution too entrenched, and no ington Post correspondent, a Christian cause too daunting for these Global Thinkers to tackle in the name of preacher, a former Marine, and a busi- effecting change. Some of them tar- geted corruption in organizations so nessman—on trumped-up charges of sub- powerful they were previously thought to be untouchable. One gave his life to version or no charges at all. They are the protect ancient history. Another united long-fractured Arab political parties in equivalent of hostages. Israel. And several threw wrenches into the plans of dictators, oligarchs, and The fog, in other words, has only barely other powerful interests by demand- ing or designing government reform. begun to clear. Q Each of these thinkers, in other words, proved that even sacred cows can ROBIN WRIGHT (@wrightr), a distinguished be toppled. scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson International Cen- ter for Scholars, is the author of Rock the Casbah: Rage and Rebellion Across the Islamic World. 48 NOV | DEC 2015