Foreign Policy 2017 05-06

First, It Came for the Polar Bears THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE MAY/JUNE 2017

040 Yeah, the Weather Has Been Weird People already believe in climate change—the trick is getting them to realize it. by KATHARINE HAYHOE 046 The Watson Files What if there were a blueprint for climate adaptation that could end Somalia’s civil war? An English scientist spent his life developing one—then he vanished without a trace. by LAURA HEATON 058 The Timely Disappearance of Climate Change Denial in China From Western plot to party line, how China embraced climate science to become a green-energy powerhouse. by GEOFF DEMBICKI 066 The Radically International History of America’s Best Idea The United States may have invented national parks—but the rest of the world helped perfect them. Now, generations later, that spirit of cooperation and competition might just be the thing that saves them. by TIM MURPHY ON THE COVER ILLUSTRATION BY Justin Metz Photograph by NICHOLE SOBECKI

contents 05|06.2017 Sightlines Observation Deck 016 074 APERTURE DEEP STATE CAFE Mexico City’s Last The Wages of Sin Is Living River the Death of the World photographs by by DAVID ROTHKOPF LUC FORSYTH 076 024 GREEN POLITICS THE THINGS THEY CARRIED Lean In to The Inuit Whale Hunter Climate Change interview by ELAINE ANSELMI by GINA MCCARTHY 026 078 THE EXCHANGE NATIONAL SECURITY Planned Parenthood: The Ministry of Two philosophers discuss Preemption the ethics of mitigating by JAMES BAMFORD climate change by 080 limiting procreation HISTORY LESSON 028 The Thucydides Trap PASSPORT by GRAHAM ALLISON Dispatches from around the world by FP staff 082 THE FIXER Out and About in Bogotá, Colombia interview by LAURA DIXON 004 Contributors 084 The Final Word

David Rothkopf CEO AND EDITOR, THE FP GROUP Rebecca Frankel Benjamin Pauker Sharon Weinberger EXECUTIVE EDITOR, PRINT EXECUTIVE EDITOR, ONLINE EXECUTIVE EDITOR, NEWS Amy Finnerty Cameron Abadi Keith Johnson STORY EDITOR, PRINT DEPUTY EDITOR, ONLINE MANAGING EDITOR, NEWS ACTING Cláudia de Almeida, Margaret Swart (o Banquinho) Adam Griiths CREATIVE DIRECTORS, PRINT CREATIVE DIRECTOR, ONLINE CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, PRINT SENIOR STAFF WRITERS Thomas Stackpole Dan De Luce, Colum Lynch MIDDLE EAST EDITOR SENIOR REPORTER David Kenner David Francis AFRICA EDITOR STAFF WRITERS Ty McCormick Robbie Gramer, Elias Groll, Jenna McLaughlin, ASIA EDITOR Paul McLeary, Emily Tamkin James Palmer CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, NEWS EUROPE EDITOR Jessica Holzer Alicia P.Q. Wittmeyer COPY CHIEF ASSOCIATE EDITOR, DIGITAL Michael Crescione Reid Standish DEPUTY COPY EDITOR ASSISTANT EDITOR Shannon Schweitzer Benjamin Soloway COPY EDITOR FELLOWS Brian E. Stout Ruby Mellen, Kavitha Surana INTERACTIVES AND EDITORIAL FEATURE DESIGNER DIGITAL INTERNS C.K. Hickey Noah Buyon, Christian Paz CONTRIBUTING EDITORS CONTRIBUTING ARTISTS Daniel Altman, John Arquilla, Edmon DeHaro, Matthew Hollister, Peter Bergen, David Bosco, Je Lysgaard, Steve Walkowiak Ian Bremmer, Rosa Brooks, VICE PRESIDENTS, EVENTS SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT AND Christian Caryl, Mohamed A. CHIEF REVENUE OFFICER El-Erian, Peter D. Feaver, Stephanie Cherkezian, David E. Ho man, William Grace Rooney Christopher Cotnoir Inboden, Charles Kenny, Christina Larson, Aaron David Miller, DEPUTY DIRECTOR, EVENTS VICE PRESIDENT, Thomas E. Ricks, James Traub, ADVERTISING SALES Stephen M. Walt, Micah Zenko Katie Gardner Duc Luu 2009 NATIONAL MAGAZINE AWARD COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR VICE PRESIDENT, EDUCATION GENERAL EXCELLENCE Maria Ory NONPROFIT SALES Foreign Policy SUBSCRIPTIONS SUBSCRIBER SERVICES COMMUNICATIONS ASSOCIATE Keith Arends Foreign Policy, P.O. Box 283, Congers, NY 10920- 11 Dupont Circle NW, Suite 600 0283; ForeignPolicy.com/subscription-services; Alex Dor VICE PRESIDENT, Washington, D.C. 20036 e-mail: [email protected]; (800) 535-6343 in ADVERTISING SALES PUBLISHING OFFICE U.S.; (845) 267-3050 outside U.S.; Publications SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT AND (202) 728-7300 mail agreement no. 40778561. Rates (in U.S. CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER Tom Tempe SUBSCRIPTIONS funds): $59.99 for one year. NEWSSTAND AND (800) 535-6343 BOOKSTORE DISTRIBUTION Curtis Circulation Allen Chin DIRECTOR OF MARKETING Company, 730 River Road, New Milford, NJ 07646- AND AD OPERATIONS ADVERTISING 3048; (201) 634-7400. BACK ISSUES $10.95 ASSISTANT TO THE CEO (202) 728-7310 per copy. International airmail add $3.00 per copy; Matthew J. Curry online: ForeignPolicy.com/buy-back-issues; email: Tianho He © 2017 by The FP Group, a division of Graham [email protected]. SYNDICATION REQUESTS ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR, Holdings Company, which bears no responsibility Contact Keith Arends (646) 517-0540; JUNIOR ACCOUNTANT MARKETING CLIENT RELATIONS for the editorial content; the views expressed in [email protected]. OTHER the articles are those of the authors. No part of this PERMISSION REQUESTS Copyright Clearance Henry Riggs Hanna Berman publication may be reproduced in any form without Center, Inc. (978) 750-8400; www.copyright.com. permission in writing from the publisher. 2 MAY | JUNE 2017 SALES AND MARKETING SUPPORT ASSOCIATE Jonathan Chan SENIOR WEB DEVELOPER Saxon Stiller WEB DEVELOPERS Priya Nannapaneni, David Varndell

We are standing at a crossroads. Whether it’s a question of climate change, WKHWKUHDWRIQXFOHDUFRQȵLFW RUQHZULVNVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKELRWHFKQRORJ\\DQG$UWLȴFLDOΖQWHOOLJHQFHWKH ZRUOGFRPPXQLW\\QHHGVWRFROODERUDWHDVQHYHUEHIRUHWRLGHQWLI\\PDQDJH DQGDYHUWFDWDVWURSKH2XUDFWLRQVLQWKHQH[W\\HDUVZLOOVKDSHRXUIXWXUH RYHUWKHQH[W\\HDUVDQGEH\\RQG The Global Challenges Foundation Global LVEDFNLQJDQRSHQ0FRPSHWLWLRQ Challenges IRUDQ\\RQHFDSDEOHRIGHYHORSLQJQHZ Foundation JRYHUQDQFHDSSURDFKHVWRWDFNOHJOREDO ULVNV7KHȴUVWVWHSLQFUHDWLQJVROXWLRQV GCF & thought leaders LVXQGHUVWDQGLQJWKHLVVXHV7KH*&)QRZ sharing what you need to know on MRLQVIRUFHVZLWKRYHUWKRXJKWOHDGHUV WRVKDUHZKDW\\RXQHHGWRNQRZDERXW Global Catastrophic WKHJUHDWHVWULVNVFXUUHQWO\\WKUHDWHQLQJ Risks 2017 WKHH[LVWHQFHRIKXPDQLW\\/HDUQPRUHDW globalchallenges.org

contributors 05|06.2017 Katharine Geo Dembicki JANE GOODALL Hayhoe is a freelance jour- Goodall is a primatologist known for her groundbreaking work with is an atmospheric nalist and author chimpanzees, which convinced her fellow anthropologists of the scientist and direc- based in Vancouver, individuality and human characteristics of primates. A U.N. Mes- tor of the Climate Canada. His work senger of Peace, Goodall is the founder of the Jane Goodall Institute Science Center at has appeared in the and the Roots & Shoots program, which brings environmental issues Texas Tech Univer- New York Times, to children around the world. She travels 300 days a year, arguing sity, where she is the Atlantic, Vice, for environmental and animal preservation. “We can stop this crazy also a professor. In and Mashable. His rush to extinction,” she says. 2014, Hayhoe was first book, Are We named one of TIME’s Screwed? How a 100 Most Influential New Generation Is People as well as Fighting to Survive an FP Global Thinker. Climate Change, will She is producing be published inter- Global Weirding: nationally in August. Climate, Politics and Religion, a short series for PBS Digi- tal Studios. Luc Forsyth Laura Heaton is an independent is a journalist based photojournalist and in Nairobi. She is filmmaker based in contributing to a Mexico City. Before book on the role of relocating to Latin women’s leadership America, Forsyth in post-genocide spent nearly a decade Rwanda, working in Asia, where he cov- with U.S. Ambas- ered social, political, sador Swanee and environmental Hunt. Her work has issues. His photogra- appeared in the New phy and videography York Times, NPR, have appeared in Newsweek, and such outlets as the National Geographic. New York Times, the Heaton is a climate National Geographic change reporting Channel, Al Jazeera, fellow with The and ESPN. GroundTruth Project. GOODALL: FERNANDO TURMO 4 MAY | JUNE 2017

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YEGOR ALEYEV VIA GETTY IMAGES “It is morally uncomfortable to ask whether we should have smaller families.” THE EXCHANGE, P. 26 ABOVE: NEWBORNS WRAPPED IN BLANKETS LIE IN A ROW AT THE ZELENODOLSK DISTRICT HOSPITAL IN ZELENODOLSK, RUSSIA

aperture photographs by LUC FORSYTH Mexico City’s Last Living River The most populous city in North America has only one living river not confined to underground pipes: the fragile Río Magdalena. The forest ecosystem that nur- tures it is the same one that sup- ports the majority of Mexico City’s water sources, including the vital Cutzamala reservoir system. Though the Magdalena feeds into the water grid, it turns from clear to sludgy shortly after it makes contact with the periph- ery of the city. The river becomes a “disgusting sewer,” says pho- tographer Luc Forsyth, as soon as it hits the urban sprawl. “I have never seen so dramatic a shift in a river within a few hundred meters.” Urbanites living along its banks could easily go their whole lives unaware that the Magdalena remains pristine just a few miles upstream. Farmers and shepherds whose rural coun- tryside the Magdalena passes through have compelling incen- tives to protect the river. Much is at stake. “People make the mistake of thinking the source of their water is the aqui- fer,” Forsyth says. But “the source of their drinking water is the forest—the ecosystem that feeds the Río Magdalena.” 16 MAY | JUNE 2017

SIGHTLINES

aperture A discarded birdcage is exposed in the summer, when the Río Magdalena is at its lowest level, leaving Mexico City with virtually no fresh flowing river water. The capital was once home to many rivers, but governments unwill- ing to invest in their maintenance drained and encased them in underground pipes. A car tire is half-submerged in a pool of raw sewage. Quickly upon entering the city, Río Magdalena becomes too polluted to support much wildlife, and far too repel- lent to invite recreation. 18 MAY | JUNE 2017

SIGHTLINES (Previous spread) An ofering of The crumbling remains of an elec- fruit and flowers has been left on tricity generating station along the banks of the Río Magdalena. the Río Magdalena. At one point, Such rituals are typically per- four such facilities existed, sup- formed only near clean water, a plying power to private factories resource in short supply in Mex- that have since shut down. ico City, where drinking water is pumped in from more than 90 FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 19 miles away. Many rely on bottled water even to bathe their children.

aperture Cows graze in a field around the unsullied stretch of river outside the city center. Even during the dry season, the Río Magdalena supports life in the hills surround- ing Mexico City, says Fermín Vazquez, a tourist guide who works in the area. If the river were to dry up completely, very little could survive the hot summers. 20 MAY | JUNE 2017

SIGHTLINES A tree’s eroded roots are choked with plastic that has washed along the banks of the Río Mag- dalena. Mexico’s urban poor buy the vast majority of their drinking water in bottled form, and never drink the river water that flows through the city. Living close to the poverty line, many have urgent concerns other than keeping the river clean. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 21

aperture Mexico City residents travel to the outskirts of the metropolis to relax along the banks of the Río Magdalena. The region is one of the few places in Greater Mexico City to enjoy clean river water and an unspoiled landscape. 22 MAY | JUNE 2017

SIGHTLINES Horses drink from the Río Magda- lena and graze on the grass that grows on its banks. Around its unpolluted segment, the last living river in Mexico City supports micro-climates that are relatively unknown for the metropolis. A small stream marks the beginning of the Río Magdalena. The fragile waterway is under constant threat from the urban expansion that brings pollution with it. Stricter monitoring of illegal dumping around urban sections of the Río Magdalena could reverse the worst of the spreading damage. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 23

The Inuit 1 Whale Hunter 3 Emmanuel 2 Adam 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 Knives Thermos Scabbard Gun Harpoon Fire-starter kit Every knife has a You bring a little Every traveler will I’ve had this for We make harpoons We bring a lot of different purpose. extra grub, a little have a scabbard quite a while. It from regular hard- kids out, so we try One is for skin- thermos. I bring or another kind was given to me by wood. You throw to keep the natu- ning, one is for car- hot water. You can of case. This one’s my brother. A reg- the harpoon before ral things but also ibou, and the two bring tea or coffee. nothing fancy. Nor- ular 30-30. (Shoot- you shoot. Every- the emergency commercial knives But hot water—you mally you just go ers learn to aim for one practices that, things. (To build a are for cutting the can make anything for the day, and a certain part of the so you won’t lose fire using a tradi- oil and muktuk with hot water. you have all of your whale’s head, the a whale. We ensure tional kit, rub the (strips of blubber travel equipment. most humane kill.) that we get the bow against the and skin) from the whale first. wooden post to cre- whale. ate friction.) 24 MAY | JUNE 2017 Photographs by NATHALIE HEIBERG HARRISON

the things they carried SIGHTLINES by ELAINE ANSELMI 5 7 6 10 WHEN THE SEA ICE around Tuktoyaktuk 8 in the Northwest Territories of Canada 10 melts in early July, hunters in the Inuvial- 9 uit community on the shore of the Beaufort 10 Radio Sea head out in aluminum boats packed sparsely to make room for their prey: 7 8 9 This is an AM radio. beluga whale. We also have a Snow knife Backpack Ammunition marine radio so Emmanuel Adam, a 64-year-old hunter, we can keep in con- trapper, and native of Tuktoyaktuk, says The snow knife is Living near the We bring enough tact with people. calm weather helps the hunt. His commu- for cutting blocks ocean, we have ammunition to But we always want nity of 850 people can bring in as many and slicing through to go out for only harvest the whale. up-to-date news. as 70 beluga in a season. However, he hard-packed snow. the day to hunt You’re traveling says, “Numbers were kind of low last year And the case— whales—not like light with just because of weather.” Among the effects of you can find any- in Inuvik or Akla- enough gas to get the warming climate are melting sea ice thing online. vik, where they’ll there and back. and permafrost, along with more storms. camp out. You A whole whale don’t want your has to fit in your Whale harvesting has been critical to camping gear boat. You don’t survival in the northernmost stretches of to get covered in want to bring too North America since around the year 1100. blood or oil. much junk. Today, country food—whale, seal, caribou, muskox, and fish—offsets exorbitant prices in remote communities. In the late 1800s, U.S. whalers pushed bowhead whales in the Beaufort Sea to near-extinction, criti- cally altering traditional hunting practices and the culture of the Inuvialuit. One bow- head whale a year can be harvested legally around Tuktoyaktuk. There’s no such limit for the more plentiful beluga population, but hunting is kept to what’s needed for subsistence. Boys join expeditions when they’re 12 or 13. They learn to throw a harpoon before they fire their weapons so that, once shot, the whale doesn’t sink before it’s pulled in. Adam hesitates to call the hunt a rite of passage. “It’s just in the nature of the peo- ple to teach the younger generation how to do things the right way,” he says. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 25

the exchange Is There a Case to be Made Against Baby Making? As the effects of climate change become more pronounced and overpopulation threatens the planet, individuals and policymakers are increasingly forced to consider the environmental implications of personal childbearing decisions. Here, two philosophers, TRAVIS RIEDER of the Berman Institute of Bioethics at Johns Hopkins and REBECCA KUKLA of the Kennedy Institute of Ethics at Georgetown, discuss the morality of deciding to have children in a world threatened by environmental degradation and the fraught ethics of encouraging people to opt for smaller families. TRAVIS RIEDER: It is morally uncomfortable to ask TRAVIS RIEDER COURTESY TRAVIS RIEDER LEFT ; COURTESY REBECCA KUKLA RIGHT whether we should have smaller families—and for good reasons. But so far, we have focused almost of the opposite. Iran was facing population entirely on per capita emissions: deeply decarbon- pressures, joblessness, scarce resources, so ize, change our infrastructure, until we’re not actu- the government decided that it needed to ally adding anything to the atmosphere. ¶ We could slow population growth by lowering fer- also ask whether that gives me some kind of moral tility. It adopted family planning policies obligation to have a certain size family. Should the that included opening rural health clinics global community think about adopting family plan- that served something like 55,000 villages ning policies that would help to drive down popula- and promoting women’s education. All of tion growth? REBECCA KUKLA: I agree that the rate of the data say that this was a massively suc- population growth is making climate change signifi- cessful, noncoercive family planning inter- cantly scarier, and so techniques for slowing it down, vention. Is there anything between the two? all else being equal, would be a good idea. But there ¶ Among the globally wealthiest, negative are pervasive assumptions in our culture that good, incentives could include cutting the child unselfish people, nice people with good values, want tax credit and having a tax imposed on a to have kids, want to build things that look roughly like certain number of children. That is the traditional families, and our informal social structures most morally risky thing that we’re con- are set up around that assumption. sidering, and we would be very sensitive to empirical data that say it’s too risky and not TR: In a recent paper, Jake Earl, Colin Hickey, and worth trying. RK: Pretty much every aspect I explored the question: Should all of us try to pro- of monitoring reproduction ends up falling mote small families through intervention? Procre- ative rights policy is very scary because it involves the possibility of coercion, and we have a history rife with coercion and with violating people’s procreative autonomy when considering family planning poli- cies. The one that people almost certainly bring up is China’s one-child policy, which was recently relaxed. It led to forced sterilization and forced abortion—all kinds of massive human rights violations. ¶ But there are historical cases that we talk about less that are kind 26 MAY | JUNE 2017

SIGHTLINES on women’s bodies, and what that’s actu- bility. ¶ My male students might see this as understand that comes with a massive cost ally going to mean is putting pressure on an interesting exercise. But the women in that the world’s worst-off will be the ones women to have smaller families and disci- the class are really overwhelmingly influ- to bear. Would it be selfish, or troubling, plining and surveilling women in yet new enced by this sort of consideration. RK: On or irresponsible, or problematic to do it ways. So it’s hard for me to imagine poli- the one hand, of course, it drives home the again? And the answer that we came to—in cies that wouldn’t turn out to dispropor- point that women are the ones who feel our very contextualized and specific situ- tionately burden women. The incredibly like they’re responsible for reproduction. ation—was yes. RK: The method that you sad irony is that poor women are also the But it’s important to distinguish between just described is lovely. But—this is the real ones who have less sexual autonomy and individual decision-making and policies. take-home punchline—the ethics of what less ability to actually fully control when Having no children or even having small it’s OK to tell somebody is not the same as they are and aren’t reproducing. They’re families are choices that are surrounded the ethics of how we should reason about the ones who are going to be held respon- by all kinds of complicated pressures and our own situation. If you take somebody sible, and they’re also the ones who are half-knowledge and bits of ideology. TR: It’s who’s under enormous, complicated pres- least in a position to live up to these norms. not my job to tell people what to do pro- sures to have a child, then you say, “Hey, I creatively. Instead, what I do is I carry peo- heard this argument for why you shouldn’t; TR: I endorse all of Rebecca’s worries. One ple through a deliberative process that my this is the right ethical conclusion,” you’re of the things that I wonder: Is there some family has gone through because they’re inserting yourself into their ethical reason- reason to think that this will always make relatively like me—wealthy high emitters ing in a way that can be problematic and things worse rather than better? Because a with control over reproductive decisions. stigmatize people. lot of times, as cultures go through what is ¶ And we got to have a child—we did it. We often called a demographic transition, it’s TR: The reason we’re in this problematic sit- seen as a liberating force for women and REBECCA KUKLA a movement forward in terms of equality. uation is that we’ve already made the wrong RK: In principle, this could have positive effects. I’m deeply worried because of the decisions. We should have mitigated the long, long, long history, despite all kinds of cultural changes, of reproductive control problem 40 years ago so that this was never being used as a weapon against women. Now we’ve got a whole literature about on the table. We need a serious culture shift, how women are bad, irresponsible moms if they let themselves have disabled chil- and that will take time we don’t have. RK: I dren. Which is also incredibly problematic from the point of view of ableism. don’t see any of this working without culture TR: My students’ personal deliberations change. If we focus more on concentrated, about these questions of their own pro- creation is incredibly gendered. They vertical, urban development, not only is consider that having a child raises your lifetime carbon emissions by almost 10,000 that directly, dramatically better from a car- metric tons, almost six times your non- procreative average lifetime if you’re an bon-footprint point of view, but also people American. For me, when I think about that, I am immediately just kind of slammed who live in small, active city spaces with with this massive sense of moral responsi- tons of possibilities just tend to have fewer children. ¶ In the short-to-medium term, one thing we can be thinking about is ways of scaffolding different kinds of family struc- tures, making them possible and appealing for people, so that they’re really choosing them on their own because of the opportu- nities that they offer. Q This conversation has been condensed and edited for publication. Go to FOREIGN- POLIC .com to read the extended version. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 27

passport How to Fund dren line up excitedly each morning outside a wave of “rage donations” by Americans a Refugee the classrooms, a cheery contrast with the incensed by the executive order. Jennifer Camp School drab life outside the school. Patterson, the deputy executive director at USA for UNHCR, which raises money for By David Kenner Here, I am rarely introduced as a the U.N. Refugee Agency and other part- reporter or the Middle East editor of FOR- ners, said that the weekend after the travel BAR ELIAS, LEBANON—The dirt paths in the EIGN POLICY. Rather, I am ibn Carol: the ban, her organization experienced a 370 encampments turn into rivers of mud son of Carol. My mother is the head of the percent surge in traffic on its website and when it rains. Cold leaks through the can- American nonprofit that raises money for the second-largest fundraising weekend vas tents in the winter; some refugees have the Kayany schools. in its history. frozen to death during particularly vicious storms. But now it’s spring, and the fields So while I make no pretense of objectiv- Kayany, too, has since seen a wave of outside the town of Bar Elias are green ity when discussing Kayany, I can provide donations. Money poured in from organi- with budding wheat and potatoes. Inside you with a few facts about the schools. I can zations of Arab-American college students; the blue-and-white tents dotting these tell you there are seven of them, including art dealers in New York were suddenly fields, however, the struggles to build a two all-girls schools, enrolling more than eager to help organize charity auctions life remain as daunting as ever. 3,400 students. I can tell you that a large in support of the schools. “People were just portion of teachers are Syrian refugees, and aghast. It just hit a raw nerve,” said Jumana There are no well-ordered, state-run ref- that the schools serve 77,000 free meals Elzayn, a Syrian-American living in Cali- ugee camps in Lebanon; everything is hap- per month. I can tell you that many of the fornia who has donated to Kayany. “This hazard. The tent encampments are built children who attend these schools would is not what our country is about.” on private land, placing the refugees at the probably receive no education at all if it mercy of landlords, and scattered at random weren’t for Kayany, and that every time But in the Syrian refugee camps of Leba- across the eastern Bekaa Valley, making it I have visited, clusters of children linger non, there is still not enough—not enough difficult for humanitarian organizations to outside the chain-link fence around the schools, not enough psychosocial support, coordinate support. Many of the 1.5 million schools, hoping to be allowed in. not enough money. Some students start Syrian refugees in the country live in con- drifting away from school before they reach ditions like this. It is as if an entire nation Kayany operates on a mix of partner- their teenage years, because their parents deposited itself in an area where one would ships with larger organizations and pri- need them to work. Amina Al Zein, the expect to find nothing but agricultural land vate donations. For example, it received administrator of the Telyani school and a or the odd farmer tending his sheep. financial support from the Malala Fund to refugee herself, said there are roughly 100 open the all-girls schools, and has partnered A cluster of buildings, the largest of with organizations like the Jesuit Refugee which is perhaps the size of a small barn, Service to operate them. After salaries are sits on the edge of the tent camp surrounded paid, textbooks are bought, and meals are by a chain-link fence. This is the Kayany prepared, it costs Kayany $1.7 million per Foundation’s Telyani School, where chil- year to fund its operations. The organiza- dren 6 to 13 attend classes in subjects such tion relies heavily on private donations— as English, Arabic, and math. The outer and until recently, raising that money was walls are adorned with cardboard cutouts no easy feat. (It’s not just Kayany. The U.N. of pink, red, and blue flowers. “Welcome humanitarian response plan, which is Spring” reads a rainbow-colored sign. Chil- meant to provide support for Syrians who haven’t left the country, suffers from a fund- ing gap of $2.9 billion in 2017 alone.) But in January, the efforts of Amer- ican nonprofits to raise money in sup- port of Syrian refugees received a boost from the unlikeliest of sources: Donald Trump. The newly inaugurated U.S. pres- ident had just issued the first travel ban, which would have suspended the entry of Syrian refugees indefinitely, sparking 28 MAY | JUNE 2017

SIGHTLINES COURTESY OF THE KAYANY FOUNDATION Students at a Kayany Foundation school Don’t Call It bottom to a proper cup of tea.” (Sample funded by Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Brexit Radio catchline: “More British than Stephen Fry Yousafzai prepare for class. riding a swan.”) By Alicia P.Q. Wittmeyer children in the school’s first grade, but only But Union JACK began broadcasting in 13 in the sixth grade. The rest, she says, have OXFORD, ENGLAND Union JACK Radio broad- September 2016, less than three months gone to work. casts out of a low-slung, graffiti-covered after the country voted to leave the Euro- structure that its staff affectionately refers pean Union, following a bitter campaign Eleven-year-old Aya worked in the to on the air as “the dumpy little build- that both divided the United Kingdom potato fields last summer, rising at 4 a.m. ing.” On a nondescript Oxford Street, the and exposed anew some of the sources of to begin her shift and then heading to building is technically two stories but looks its deepest collective anxieties, including school at noon. She’s a slight, precocious shorter; the ceilings are low, the carpeting imperial nostalgia and English national- girl who regularly drowns out her class- worn. When I visited recently for a tour, ism. These wounds have not healed in the mates in her determination to be heard. one of the first things I learned was that months since. And so, Union JACK has Her favorite classes are Arabic and English, there are bomb shelters underneath dat- spent the first few months of its young life she says, because she “wants to under- ing back to World War II—the days of Chur- pushing back—always cheerful, always stand everything.” chill, Spitfires, and Britain’s finest hour. impeccably polite—against those who’ve dubbed the station “radio Brexit.” NME, an Only the most menial employment is Had it launched at any other time, influential British music magazine, cov- available, and preteens work in factories Union JACK might not have attracted quite ered the first hour of Union JACK’s debut or the fields for as little as $10 a week. Her so much attention. The concept behind in an article that began, “If you liked Brexit mother eventually stopped her from work- the station is straightforward. As the name but thought it lacked a decent soundtrack, ing because Aya was experiencing back- implies, it plays only British music, by Brit- you are in luck.” Another publication went aches. She might return this summer; her ish artists. Its target audience is people with the headline “Brexit Britain Radio father is dead, and her family needs the 45 to 59 years old. This demographic is Station Bans Foreigner[s].” money. reflected both in the choice of the listen- er-selected playlist (you’re more likely to Today, that stream of press coverage has But it will be only during the summer, hear Pink Floyd than grime) and in the mostly died off, but the station still fields Aya insists, not when Kayany opens its smattering of British-inflected dad jokes the occasional angry tweet. In response, doors. She juts out her chin and smiles listeners are treated to between songs (the the social media team, which consists proudly. “I don’t let anything stand in the station eschews DJs in favor of pre-re- solely of a sunny 20-something named way of coming to school.” —David Kenner corded promo material). On a recent morn- Phil, tweets back friendly responses that is Middle East editor at FOREIGN POLICY. ing, the playlist included music by New insist on the station’s staunch neutrality Order, Queen, Radiohead, some very good on all things Brexit. punk by a band called The Members, and recorded voiceovers making quips about “We’re letting people shake their fists some of the things typically viewed as at us, and we’re just sort of waving back,” essentials of Britishness: “popping out for a program manager Giles Gear, an energetic curry,” MINI Coopers, excessive politeness. 23-year-old with an unlikely enthusiasm According to its promotional materials, the for radio, told me. “No bias/Brexit under- station aims to celebrate “the quirky Brit- tones here. We’re more Mr. Bean than Mr. ish way of life … from Mary Berry’s soggy Farage,” the station’s Twitter account recently chirped in response to a tweet calling the station another sign that “Brit- ain has lost its mind.” “Nah, no bias here,” it said in another. “All about celebrating the music, comedy and quirks from this weird and wonderful island. Smashing!” My visit to Union JACK came in early April. It was just a few days after an episode FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 29

that, for many, signaled a new low in what- wrote, was presenting itself to the world A Secessionist ever post-Brexit madness had taken hold: as “a nation secure in its own post-empire Abroad the unexpected flare-up between Britain identity” if “sometimes slightly insane.” and Spain over the fate of Gibraltar. Ear- By Benjamin Soloway lier that month, former Conservative Party Walker, who is Australian but has lived leader Michael Howard had suggested that in the U.K. since 2002, said he saw in the WASHINGTON Carles Puigdemont, the Britain would willingly go to war over the spirit of these Games an opportunity. president of the government of Catalo- rocky peninsula. This was followed, later “When the Olympics came to London there nia—bespectacled and shaggy haired at the same day, by a report in the right-lean- was such a groundswell of national pride,” 54—surveyed the passing monuments ing Daily Telegraph clarifying that while he said. “It was really transformational.” and museums as we skirted the National Britain’s navy was “far weaker” than it was Britain, he said, was a country longing for Mall in his black SUV. This was his first during the Falklands War, it could “still a chance to celebrate and embrace its idio- time in the United States. “Seven million cripple” Spain. syncrasies. What if a radio station could people visit here each year,” he informed tap into that same enthusiasm? me, gesturing vaguely toward one of the But Union JACK was not born out of Smithsonian museums. “The same as the this Britain, insisted CEO Ian Walker, 49, Five years later, Union JACK is still sell- population of Catalonia.” while sitting on a plush couch covered ing a version of this Britain: a weird and with Union Jack pillows. Rather, it was wacky island with certain cultural touch- It was early afternoon on a cloudy a concept conceived in the wake of the stones that everyone, Brexiteers and Tuesday in March, and we were headed much-celebrated London 2012 Olympic Remoaners alike, can love and share: tea, to The Monocle, a restaurant on Capitol Games. queuing, The Great British Bake Off. But Hill where generations of legislators and it’s not yet clear that in post-Brexit Brit- their coteries have hobnobbed over steaks Those Games were marked by an open- ain, where once-simple patriotism has and crab cakes, and where you might have ing ceremony almost universally received suddenly become politically fraught, such to pass a signed photo of Dick Cheney to as deeply strange but oddly stirring. Lon- symbols can be universally embraced the use the bathroom. don was hosting the Summer Olympics way they were five years ago. four years after Beijing, which had seen “During the Women’s March, the Mall the occasion as a coming out party on the Or maybe it is that simple, and maybe was covered with protesters as far as the world stage for a newly rich China. In its they can. Jordan Bassett, who reviewed eye could see,” I told Puigdemont. He asked opening ceremony, Beijing had opted for Union JACK for NME, for instance, started how many had attended. Maybe half a mil- the spectacular: performances on a gigan- out his hour of listening with his tone set lion, I said. tic, elaborate, $100 million, 15,000-per- firmly to snide. The first 30 seconds on the former scale. Now that it was Britain’s turn, air, which included a man talking about “In Catalonia, we get more than a mil- the world waited anxiously to see how a “pork pies and pasties” (a Cornish pastry) lion people in the streets on National Day,” country—not a rising power, but one long and the TV sitcom Fawlty Towers, were he said. “And that’s out of 7 million.” He in decline—would follow. like “a moodboard from the mind of Nigel pressed his phone to the car’s window and Farage,” he wrote. snapped a photo. The United Kingdom opted not for grandiosity, but for quirk. The queen A few minutes later, however, the sta- When we got to the restaurant on D parachuted out of a helicopter (or at least tion moved onto the music—and it proved Street, the delegation made its way to a appeared to, with the aid of a royal stunt hard to resist. By minute 10, following Era- white-clothed table toward the back of double) accompanied by James Bond. Paul sure’s “A Little Respect”: “I’ve removed the wood-paneled dining room, a series McCartney made an appearance, as did my shirt, and I’m dancing at my desk.” of D.C. aphorisms emblazoned along the Mary Poppins and the National Health Minute 36: He was swooning over Pulp’s top of each wall. One of them read, “If you Service, in a celebration of British cul- “Common People.” By minute 49, it was all want a friend in Washington, get a dog.” tural icons. Britain, the New York Times over. British music, after all, is very good. “The accumulative effect of Erasure, Oasis, The restaurant was full of patrons, none Pulp and The Smiths is reason to believe of whom seemed to recognize the almost- that maybe Union Jack is the best radio world-leader in their midst. An advisor station ever invented,” he wrote. Tallyho. —Alicia P.Q. Wittmeyer is Europe editor for FOREIGN POLICY. 30 MAY | JUNE 2017

SIGHTLINES JOSEP LAGO / STRINGER VIA GETTYIMAGES Protesters pose with Carles Puigdemont The National Day demonstrators that has its own parliament and executive bod- during a pro-independence demonstration Puigdemont mentioned take to the streets ies, with extensive control over its affairs. in Barcelona on Sept. 11, 2016. each year to agitate for their region’s inde- However, Catalonia produces more value pendence from Spain. Puigdemont—the for the government in Madrid than it gets passed around a phone so that the entire former mayor of Girona, one of Catalo- back. Many Catalans believe they bear an company—a group of eight that included nia’s largest cities—is a staunch secession- unfair tax burden and blame the central Catalonia’s foreign minister and the head ist, and his ruling coalition in the regional government for the country’s debt crisis. of its delegation to the United States— government wants to leave Spain. But Critics of the independence project see could see the latest excitement: a tweet the region remains firmly under Spanish the region’s identity politics as a mask for by a Washington Post reporter noting control. these economic concerns. Puigdemont’s visit. The president ordered salmon, followed by a generous portion of Once we’d finished lunch—and the Cat- Madrid has indicated that it doesn’t vanilla ice cream and an espresso, which alans had paid—we headed over to CNN en intend to let go of a fifth of Spain’s econ- came not in an espresso cup, but at the very Español for a quick taped interview, after omy or Barcelona, its second-largest city. In bottom of an oversized mug, resembling a which Puigdemont met briefly with a few March, Spain’s constitutional court barred nearly finished cup of coffee. Puigdemont members of Congress in their offices. (I was Artur Mas, Puigdemont’s predecessor, from examined it quizzically. not invited to these closed-door conversa- holding office for two years because he tions.) Later, Puigdemont told me they had ran an independence referendum in 2014. When Matteo Renzi, then the Italian discussed “normal things.” The poll he organized was symbolic and prime minister, visited Washington last nonbinding, but nonetheless constituted year for Barack Obama’s final state din- “We try to explain what’s happened in an act of criminal civil disobedience in ner, the White House rolled out the red Catalonia,” he said. They asked, “What do the eyes of the justice system. That hasn’t carpet. It’s not hard to imagine a president you think of European Union or Brexit?”— stopped Puigdemont’s plans to hold a ref- of Catalonia—which is just larger than Bul- questions he called “neutral, without a erendum in September. According to his garia and just smaller than Switzerland in previous point of view.” vice president, he is willing to declare inde- population, has a higher gross domestic pendence unilaterally if Spain tries to block product per capita than Spain, and con- Catalan independence tops the list of the vote. When asked about the possibil- tains Barcelona, one of the largest cities in polarizing issues in Spanish politics. But in ity of meeting the same fate as Mas, Puig- Europe—receiving similar treatment. But the United States, it’s met mostly with mild demont answered with bravado. “This is one fact gets in the way: Catalonia isn’t a curiosity. Puigdemont, who spent decades not important,” he said. “If we are barred real country. as a journalist before entering politics, is from public office, there will be another versed in the contrast between this domes- person, and another person, and another tic contentiousness and foreign indiffer- person. … Nothing will change.” ence. In 1994, he published Cata … What? Catalonia as Seen by the Foreign Press—a Western Europe is no stranger to inde- book about articles like this one. pendence referendums. Scotland held one in 2014, choosing narrowly to remain in Catalonia’s view of itself, and interest in the United Kingdom, and may well hold the way others see it, must be understood another one soon. Independence sup- in the context of Spain’s 20th-century his- porters hope to save Scotland from Brexit tory. During his almost four-decade reign, entirely or rejoin the EU independently. Spanish dictator Gen. Francisco Franco That’s where Catalonia comes in. Some suppressed Catalan identity and banned have suggested that Spain could play the Catalan language. Since the drafting of democratic Spain’s constitution in 1978, the region has enjoyed a degree of auton- omy, continuing a centuries-old tradition of self-governance. In recent years, support for the indepen- dence movement has grown, with more people in favor than against, according to a poll conducted last year by the regional center for sociological research. For many Catalans, the current configuration is unsatisfactory. The region claims only limited fiscal and political autonomy. It FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 31

passport A Bodega Once Stood Here By James Palmer spoiler to the EU’s speedy reintegration BEIJING They began bricking up my street, Workers put up a brick wall at the site of a of Scotland to avoid the precedent it would a quiet alley in central Beijing, on a Sun- former restaurant near the Forbidden City in set for Catalonia. day morning. Behind a half-built wall, Beijing on April 20. the middle-aged owner of a small phone “No one now in Europe is questioning accessories and knickknack store sat the pavement. In the chaotic and corrupt that independent Scotland will remain an glumly, minding his stock as he watched early 2000s, it was often impossible for EU member,” Puigdemont told me. “No his vocation disappear brick by brick. The business owners to get legitimate paper- one [except in] Spain disagrees with this construction workers sent by the city gov- work. Even if they did, the city could still point of view.” ernment weren’t technically evicting him— brick up their doorways. Out of a dozen just sealing off the only entranceway from stores in the first 100 yards of my street, Just over a mile from the Spanish the street. What could he do? The hair- two survived. Embassy, the imposing edifice of which dressers across the road had made plans takes up nearly a block on Pennsylvania to move back to Shandong, their home On the third day of construction, the Avenue, is the Delegation of Catalonia to province; they’d been in the capital for 16 builders didn’t look happy about their the United States, Canada, and Mexico. I years only to have their livelihoods vanish work. Like many store owners, they were met with Puigdemont in that office, on on a government whim. migrants trying to make their way through the third floor of a nondescript 12-story an expensive and confusing capital. They office building on K Street above a Potbelly Riot police leaned against their plastic were mostly small men, ill-fed and badly Sandwich Shop, the morning following our shields next to piles of teetering bricks. shaven. In streets elsewhere in the city, lunch at The Monocle. A map of Catalan There didn’t seem to be any chance of they’d put up improvised shelters to sleep borders and cities in some bygone time trouble. Word of the Beijing govern- in even as they tore down other people’s hung in an otherwise empty corner of the ment’s upcoming “cleanup” campaign, shops and homes. “We don’t like the work,” sparse office. The cartographer had left off and the demolitions that would go with one of them told me as his friends nodded. the rest of Spain. it, had already gone through the neigh- Two were from Shandong and the other borhood a few weeks before. But it wasn’t three were from Anhui, both among the Puigdemont and I sat in the delega- just our street. Across central Beijing, post- poorest provinces in China. “But it’s work. tion’s small conference room and dis- ers announced plans to demolish “illegal What can you do? Outsiders never have a cussed his previous evening. The day structures” made by “building walls and home in Beijing.” earlier, he told me he’d planned a night digging holes.” out on the town, mentioning his love of By Wednesday, the brickwork was fin- theater and gospel music, and asked for Yet “illegal” is a shifting term in China. ished and the demolition had begun. Yards recommendations. Business operates in a permanent gray zone, of new alleyway appeared as frontal expan- where the rules can shift at any minute. The He and some friends had hoped to get smaller a venture, the more vulnerable it is. into a jazz club near his hotel in George- There’s no definite protection, only layers town. “But it was full, and also expensive,” that can provide some shield from a change he said. So they stood outside, where he in the authorities’ mood. With this cam- could hear that the music “was very good,” paign, it took a new level of legitimacy for then gave up. shop owners to save their businesses—the right papers in the right zone, ideally with “I went to the hotel to sleep,” he said. the right city listed on their personal resi- —Benjamin Soloway is assistant editor at dence permit. FOREIGN POLICY. Restaurant owners, who believed that they had the necessary food permits, came to terms with the fact that they were now in blocks zoned only for residences. Fruit vendors found that their stalls, which had been operating for years, were obstructing 32 MAY | JUNE 2017

SIGHTLINES REUTERS/THOMAS PETER sions were torn down. The building next to after my alley was torn down I returned to mination to present a clean face to the my house, once a mahjong parlor, shrunk my old Beijing neighborhood, Tuanjiehu, leadership’s upper echelons, who drive by a third. Two members of the demolition to count the businesses. Photo shop, gone. through Beijing on their way between pal- crew shared a companionable pack of cig- Pizza parlor, gone. Hand-job salon, gone. aces in the city center and villas elsewhere, arettes with the manager of a bathhouse Brick walls were in their place, blocking has nothing to do with what people—both as they tore down his neighbor’s home. former doorways made from identical-col- foreigners and locals—want. Nor does the Fresh mounds of dirt littered the sidewalk; ored bricks. unrestrained gutting of small businesses on one of them, three children played as throughout the city seem very practical. happily as if they were on a sandy beach. The goal of the campaign has been to “They can’t close us down!” a stallholder drive out as many of Beijing’s incomers argued naively. “Where would people buy The next night, I found Mrs. Yang, the as possible. Local government’s popula- their vegetables?” owner of the diminished mahjong par- tion figures are consistently fake, as the lor, staring drunkenly at what used to be National Bureau of Statistics frequently Perhaps there’s a fear there, too. Authori- her front door. “I don’t know where all the complains. Officials in rural areas try to tarian states have never liked tangled alley- wires go now,” she said, looking at the tan- keep their numbers up to get more central ways. That’s one reason most of Beijing’s gle of cables running across the street. In government funding, and urban areas try traditional neighborhoods have been the former barbershop, now half-rubble, to lower theirs on paper to fulfill promises replaced by the vast, bleak highways that the builders had pulled down the ceil- to control migration—and to prevent peas- pierce the city—designed like the ave- ing-high mirror stand and were using it ants from using the superior hospitals and nues of Paris under Napoleon III for the as a place to eat their noodles. I saw the schools of the metropolises. easy marching of soldiers. “Paris sliced former owners packed and ready to head to by strokes of a saber: the veins opened, the train station. Their small dog, Jingjing, Beijing’s nominal population of 23 nourishing one hundred thousand earth ran to me to say an unknowing goodbye. million is in reality far larger, as judged movers and stone masons; crisscrossed by by proxy figures such as the use of pub- admirable strategic routes, placing forts in The same process has been going on all lic transport. But population quotas are the heart of the old neighborhoods,” Émile over the city center. On the edge of Guan- being issued district by district, motivating Zola wrote in 1871 of the city’s redesign. ghua SOHO, a glitzy mall, another set of local officials to clear out their neighbor- restaurants had been bricked up but was hoods in the service of their own careers. These measures are disastrous for Bei- still operating behind the wall. “Come on Breaking up small businesses makes life jingers. The small businesses targeted, round, we’re still going,” the owner of one in the capital deliberately harder for the according to 2011 data quoted by the Finan- eatery said cheerfully. On the weekend poor. If the cheap street-side dumpling cial Times, make up 35 percent of the city’s joints are gone, what’s left behind are the economy. But top-down order is prevail- chain restaurants that serve the same food ing yet again over the determination and at three times the price. intelligence of small-town Chinese in the big city. But there’s also a determination to “civilize” the city, to turn the streets into a This economic hollowing is visible in the uniform slate-gray frontage broken only Yashow Market, once a bustling bazaar in by Costa Coffee outlets and luxury malls. the foreigner-friendly Sanlitun neighbor- Small businesses are the veins of a city, hood. After the city government pushed but the authorities’ vision of the Chinese out clothing markets, a popular business capital as “an international city” doesn’t for migrants, to the far reaches of Beijing, include New York-style bodegas or Lon- Yashow was closed and redone as a fancy donesque corner shops. Their deter- mall full of empty boutiques. The only thriv- ing business is a Burger King. The shopping center’s management has already resorted to offering shops free rent to stay. However, the successful strip of shops behind the mall— with its tailor, kebab stand, and cheap booze —has just been bricked up. —James Palmer is Asia editor at FOREIGN POLICY. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 33

Sponsored Report MADAGASCAR BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE MADAGASCAR On the road to stability and development With its return to the international scene, 2016 stood out work with us.” There are already a as a key year for Madagascar and 2017 is forecasted to be number of US companies working the country’s year for reconstruction with Malagasy partners, such as Caterpillar, Ford and Symbion Pow- There is no question that Madagas- na, stresses, “We aim to achieve a er, who have all chosen to do busi- Hery Rajaonarimampianina car made progress in 2016, as high- growth rate in GDP of 4,5%, and ness with local players, and Groupe President of the Republic lighted by the Malagasy President, we believe that our current policies Star, Coca-Cola’s oldest partner in of Madagascar Hery Rajaonarimampianina: “Look- will help us reach this goal in 2017. the world dating back to the 1950s, ing back at 2016, we can really talk We are trying to attract investors is the leading beverage manufactur- Cie’s Managing Director, David about political, social and economic by improving the business environ- er and distributor in the country. Ranaivo, believes foreign investors achievements, as demonstrated by ment. We are a country blessed with would benefit from working with the strengthening of our relations resources of wealth, but we cannot Sara et Cie is a Malagasy compa- local partners: “If foreign investors with donors and the hosting of claim that we can achieve our goals ny specialized in working with inter- choose to do business in Madagas- world-class summits which, in turn, without external aid.” The govern- national donors. As a leader in con- car, they have a vested interest part- helped consolidate the country’s ment will be investing the funding struction, the company is a prime nering with Malagasy local compa- stability.” At the Francophonie and into specific sectors. Agriculture will example of a Malagasy business that nies which, whatever the situation, COMESA summits, the coun- be at the forefront, a sector which managed to survive the 2009-2013 will always be present in the coun- try hosted more top international 80% of the population depends on. crisis period, during which it lost try. Sara et Cie has existed for more representatives than ever before. Others sectors that will play an im- 80% of its turnover and was close to than 50 years in Madagascar, and Furthermore, the successful ‘Do- portant role in the country’s growth bankruptcy. Sara et Cie’s strategic foreign companies regularly request nors and Investors Conference for include infrastructure, energy, live- turnaround was triggered by for- partnering with us.” He says that Madagascar’ held in Paris resulted stock, fishing and tourism. eign direct investment which had a this shift should happen as soon as in record funds (10 billion USD) be- tremendous impact on the compa- possible: “What we need is an accel- ing promised to the country. With The Malagasy government is ny, and has since led it to become a eration of the process, so that the 6.4 billion USD of the total coming currently implementing initiatives reference in the eyes of international donors concretize new projects with from international funding agencies, to favor investment into the country institutions investing in Mada- it is clear that the private sector has – it has made significant progress gascar. The company particularly also pledged extensively to contrib- with regards to public finances, in- seeks to build partnerships with US ute to Madagascar’s development. cluding the improved collection of counterparts, in order to buy tech- taxes, and in modernizing a num- nologies that will help Madagascar 2017: A year for reconstruction ber of the country’s public com- develop its infrastructure. Sara et Although Madagascar has the re- panies. Eric Razafimandimby, the sources necessary to become a lead- Malagasy Minister of Public Works ing African nation, it has lacked the says, “2017 is a year of stimulus and means to turn these resources into continuity. At the level of the Minis- a sustainable source of income and try, we will strengthen road quality growth. However, the country has controls, increase partnerships to now been given the means to rebuild raise the funding required, through itself. The Malagasy Prime Minister, agreements between the private Olivier Mahafaly Solonandrasa- sector and public authorities. Our priority is to encourage investors to 1

MADAGASCAR BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE Sponsored Report the Malagasy State, and that private car. The bank provides value-added has a great environmental impact. country will strengthen the contri- foreign investors return as quickly services such as mobile and online However, the mining code that we bution of the mining sector to the as possible to Madagascar.” banking, and is the first bank in are going to ratify in the near future economy, which to date amounts Madagascar to be ISO 9001:2015 attaches great importance to the to 2% of GDP. By 2018, the share The Société du Port à gestion certified on all of its banking oper- protection of environmental and of the mining sector is expected to Autonome de Toamasina (SPAT) ations. BMOI’s Managing Director, social resources.” reach 12-15% of GDP.” has also made successful PPP agree- Alain Merlot, is truly optimistic ments with international partners. about the country’s potential and BCMM has managed mining In 2017, BCMM will achieve a The government authority is re- says that the Malagasy economy is permits, administration fees and major milestone with the opening of sponsible for three quarters of the on the verge of accelerating drasti- the distribution of taxes for decen- its new Mining Business Center, set maritime trade on the island and cally: “The potential of Madagascar tralized territorial authorities in up to facilitate investments, com- in charge of managing and mod- has existed for a long time, and ev- Madagascar for 16 years. The state- munication and interaction between ernizing the Toamasina port, Mad- eryone is convinced: the question owned company is a central plat- mining stakeholders. All of the Mal- agascar’s most important gateway that arises is not why Madagascar form for the Malagasy mining busi- agasy mining administration struc- to the Indian Ocean. The Japan has not developed, but when the ness. With its overall goal to turn tures related to mining operators International Cooperation Agency country is really going to take off, Madagascar into a destination for will now be gathered on one site (JICA) has been the principal inves- because this is inevitable.” With mining projects and investments, and the Mining Business Center is tor in the development of this port regards to the Paris Conference he the company works to improve the expected to become the gateway to and this year it will be launching a says, “The promises have started to synergies between public authori- mining investments in Madagascar, plan for its extension, which will be realized in 2017, primarily those ties and mining companies across as well as a platform for trade and enable port traffic to increase five- involving the budget releasing. De- the country, promote the interests exchange with domestic and for- fold upon completion. The port spite the crisis, the Malagasy econ- of the mining sector and enhance eign companies in the sector. This has become the largest provider of omy was able to resist mainly due mining investments. is bound to increase the potential jobs in Toamasina, Madagascar’s to a resilient private sector. The in- for the forging of partnerships with second largest city, accounting for jection of these funds from donors In 2016 it issued almost 10,000 companies and international opera- more than a third of the total em- will have a very important multiplier licenses. BCMM’s General Manag- tors. Ratsimbazafy says, “Thanks to ployment. Christian Eddy Avellin, effect.” er David Ratsimbazafy says, “2017 this new business center, BCMM is Managing Director of SPAT empha- is a pivotal year as several compa- able to accompany investors in all sizes, “The Indian Ocean is becom- Developing the mining sector nies will move from the research back office procedures, throughout ing a major hub, so we need to take With gold, nickel, cobalt, chrome, stage to the exploration stage, par- the whole value chain (research, advantage of this strategic opportu- sapphires and rubies, and new proj- ticularly in the field of graphite and exploitation, exportation, etc.), and nity… It is the PPP that brought ects foreseen in uranium, Madagas- rare earths”. He adds, “We believe even help them set up a company us where we are today. PPPs create car has extensive mining potential. that in the longer term, the explo- under Malagasy law.” win-win situations: the private sec- The government has made notable ration of five major mines in the tor gets the required return on in- progress in enhancing the ease of vestment, and at the same time the doing business in this sector and BCMM: A platform for trade and exchange infrastructure development benefits according to the Malagasy Minister the country and the population.” of Mines and Oil, Ying Vah Zafilahy, The Mining Business Centre is a public mining entity managing “We are in the process of finalizing a extraction licenses. We are a platform for trade and exchange for mining Other key PPPs in Madagascar new mining code and we will estab- operators, serving as a central meeting point include projects with the Swiss lish a mining observatory to ensure for investors and for forging local and group SGS, which provides world better traceability. All relevant min- international partnerships. leading inspection, verification, test- istries and governmental bodies at a ing and certification services, and provincial and regional level should Contact us: Bureau du Cadastre Minier de Madagascar with one of its subsidiaries, Gasyn- be involved so that we can guarantee Phone : +261 20 22 400 29 | Email : [email protected] et, which played an important role that the extracted resources benefit Website : www.bcmm.mg in the modernization and digitaliza- the population of Madagascar.” The tion of trade in the country. government’s overall objective is to ensure a sustainable exploration, To help concretize the initiatives which will benefit future Malagasy presented during the Paris Confer- generations, whilst ensuring that ence and to support foreign inves- the environment is protected. Zaf- tors with the launch of new projects ilahy says, “Madagascar is a blessed in the country, BMOI, a subsidiary country in terms of biodiversity, and of the French bank BPCE, stands as we all know that open pit mining a partner of choice for top compa- nies, institutions and high-end cli- ents wanting to settle in Madagas- 50 years of infrastructure excellence Sara et Cie Avenue du General Ratsimandrava TANANARIVE MADAGASCAR Tel: +261(0)20 222 1832 | [email protected] 2

Sponsored Report MADAGASCAR BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE An improved climate for oil investments in Madagascar Madagascar is exploring and exploiting oil blocks to boost economic development and strive towards energy independence, spearheaded by OMNIS In the words of the President of the ing steadily, and it is achieving the 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day is anticipated (Block 3104 Tsimiroro) Democratic Republic of Madagas- increased interest from foreign in- car, Hery Rajaonarimampianina, vestors that it desires. upstream oil sector and strategic be sold to companies interested in “Madagascar is a country under mining products. OMNIS’ overall investment. construction, if not reconstruction. Mining in the hands of OMNIS mission is to enact Madagascar’s So, there are infinite economic and The Malagasy state agency, OM- petroleum and mining policy and OMNIS celebrated its 40th anni- social opportunities.” Oil explo- NIS (The Office of National in turn contribute to the develop- versary in 2016, and its successes ration in the country is currently Mining and Strategic Resources), ment of a prosperous nation. to date are widespread, with heavy a booming sector. Madagascar was created in 1976 to promote oil and dry gas among them. At was ranked 2nd place in Africa’s and exploit strategic natural re- Four years after the foundation of the start of 2017, 13 international top destinations for oil and gas sources and extractive industries OMNIS, the first oil code was ad- oil companies were working on 20 investments at the inaugural Af- across Madagascar. Oil exploration opted in 1980. Over the years, the offshore and onshore oil blocks. rica Oil and Power conference in has a long history in the country, company has acquired seismic data The exploration work has reached 2016, the purpose of which is to dating back to 1900 with the drip- and drilled wells, often in collabo- an advanced stage and, as a result, facilitate investment and turn the ping of shallow wells at Tsimioro ration with partner companies. Its many have been granted a license spotlight to Africa, arguably the and Bemolanga. OMNIS has been first discovery of gas was in 1987 extension. world’s most overlooked oil and managing, developing and pro- in West Manambolo in the Mo- gas region. Madagascar’s reputa- moting Madagascar’s petroleum rondava basin. In 1996 a revision Heavy oil represents one of the tion for its petroleum and mineral and mineral resources for the past of Madagascar’s oil code led to the biggest successes in the coun- resource potential is certainly grow- 40 years, and is responsible for signing of a number of new oil con- try’s oil exploration history. tracts. Since then there have been Following the discovery of an oil Point of View various international companies deposit, a commercial authoriza- succeeding one and another in the tion was granted in 2014 for Block FP 1976-2016: How has OMNIS developed? field of oil exploration in the coun- 3104 Tsimiroro, which has a cer- BR For 40 years, OMNIS has worked towards devel- try. With the aim of increasing tified reserve capacity of around investment into Malagasy oil sec- 1.7 billion barrels. Production is oping strategic natural resources in Madagascar. Since its tor, a revised oil code is on process. expected at 6,000 to 10,000 barrels foundation in 1976, it has undertaken several studies on per day, which will be dedicated the country’s strategic mineral soils and analyzed the po- The great Malagasy subsoil to local consumption. In the long tential of resources such as uranium and crude oil. The potential for further oil ex- term, a production of 100,000 to ploration in Madagascar is vast. 150,000 barrels per day is antici- FP What are OMNIS’ key priorities? The Great Red Island has five pated for exportation. As a result of BR OMNIS intends to carry out new studies of Mada- sedimentary basins, covering an this success, a 25-year exploitation license has been granted, which has gascar’s basins and resources. We hope that these studies Bonaventure Rasoanaivo will increase Madagascar’s potential. In addition, several “Madagascar was ranked 2nd place in Africa’s top Managing Director seismic studies have already been carried out, and we ac- destinations for oil and gas investments in 2016.” OMNIS tively encourage potential investors to use the data made available. 2016 Africa Oil and Power conference FP With 20 out of 200 potential oil blocks having been explored, how will new area of 820,000km2, with a strong led Madagascar to enter the exclu- investors be attracted to increase exploration further? hydrocarbon potential. Yet, the sive list of oil-producing countries. oil system is under-explored, and The future output of heavy oil will BR OMNIS, in consultation with all concerned entities, is currently working on the today there is only one oil well for contribute to the development of reform of the petroleum code. Once this code is adopted, OMNIS will start promoting and an area of 10,000km2. The basins the Malagasy economy, allowing issuing calls for tenders for the unexplored oil blocks. OMNIS will focus on providing are very similar to those recently the country to reduce imports and incentives to attract investors, and on providing technical and administrative assistance. uncovered in East Africa, where save on foreign exchange. As soon as the revised oil code gets the official go-ahead, we intend to launch a bidding oil and gas were discovered in campaign for 40 additional offshore blocks. Mozambique and Tanzania. Geo- Developments in dry gas are also physical prospecting companies underway. In 2012, high-quality FP Do you see Madagascar becoming an oil-producing economy in the future? are currently leading speculative dry gas was discovered 2900m deep BR The various exploration works that have taken place in Madagascar since 1900 surveys to demonstrate explora- in the South West region. A de- tion possibilities, and the data will posit of around 20bn m3 was also attest to Madagascar’s oil potential. The continued arrival of new companies also sup- discovered in the south, for which ports this potential. There is therefore no reason why Madagascar should not become an oil-producing country in the years to come; perhaps not as big a producer as the OPEC member countries, but with considerable potential nevertheless.

MADAGASCAR BACK TO THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE Sponsored Report Opening the doors for increased investment The Malagasy mining hydrocarbons code is being revised to facilitate foreign investment into the sector 44°0'0\"E 48°0'0\"E ³ MADAGASCAR PETROLEUM BLOCKS Ambilobe Pura Vida Antsiranana OYSTER 14°0'0\"S 14°0'0\"S Seismic operations Antsohihy a feasibility study for the electrifi- Madagascar Northern cation of the region is currently in Petroleum company progress. Once an advanced stage of this development is reached, it is (ONHYM) visited Madagascar 18°0'0\"S Bekodoka 18°0'0\"S expected that the gas produced will for the Malagasy hosted 2016 22°0'0\"S Madagascar Petroleum Energy provide sufficient energy for all of Francophonie Summit. Moroccan 22°0'0\"S Madagascar. experience in the field of mining Tambohorano and oil is evident, and ONHYM Varun Energy LEGEND Fostering partnerships identified OMNIS as a partner of Onshore block granted (14) Today, Madagascar Oil is OMNIS’ choice, which led to the signing Bemolanga Offshore block granted (3) most advanced exploration partner. of an agreement between the two Madagascar Oil SA Onshore free blocks (110) Created under Malagasy law in counterparts. Offshore free blocks (307) 26°0'0\"S 2004, the company operates on ma- Tsimiroro jor oil blocks such as the Tsimiroro This is one example of many to Block 3104, which is currently in come: several US companies have Madagascar Oil its heavy oil pilot production and also already expressed their pref- SA sale phase and has approximately erence for some of the future oil 160,000 barrels in stock. blocks. Belo profond Grand prix Manambolo OMNIS highly values the for- Sustainable development South Atlantic Petroleum/ OMV Exploration and Production/ Madagascar Oil mation of partnerships with OMNIS’ future prospects include Marex Enermad SA international oil and mining com- the assessment of the oil potential panies. For more than 40 years, the of sedimentary basins. The com- Morondava company has sought to diversify pany and its partners continue to study and evaluate oil blocks by Madagascar Oil reprocessing past data to highlight SA the current configuration of the Manandaza Madagascar Oil SA Manja Amicoh Coorporation Berenty Tullow Oil Toliary Sakaraha Madagascar Southern Madagascar International Petroleum company Energy Bezaha Petromad 26°0'0\"S 0 45 90 180 270 360 44°0'0\"E 48°0'0\"E Kilometers OMNIS december 2016 “OMNIS, in consultation with all concerned entities, The Malagasy government set Director Bonaventure Rasoanai- worked on the reform of the petroleum code. We are out clear objectives for 2017: The vo emphasizes that “the objective now promoting and issuing calls for tenders for the Malagasy Prime Minister Olivi- of the revised oil code is first and unexplored oil blocks.” er Mahafaly Solonandrasana said foremost to implement an incentiv- “We aim to achieve a growth rate izing law that encourages investors Bonaventure Rasoanaivo, Managing Director, OMNIS in GDP of 4.5%, and we believe to come to Madagascar.” that our current policies will help its partnerships with entities from subsoil. us reach this goal.” The revised According to Ying Vah Zafilahy, all over the world. According to Efforts are focused on offshore ba- version of the mining and hydro- the Minister of Mines and Oil, the President of the Democratic sins that are known to present high carbons code aims to improve the “Our objective is to ensure a ratio- Republic of Madagascar, “Looking potential and have already been conditions for exploration and nal and sustainable exploitation back at 2016, we can really talk subjected to exploration analyses. exploitation of hydrocarbons to for future generations... The code about political, social and econom- Geophysical service companies facilitate FDI and offer incentives attaches great importance to the ic achievements, as demonstrated will be contracted for seismic data to potential investors. The Prime protection of environmental and by the strengthening of our rela- acquisitions. Looking ahead, the Minister adds: “We are convinced social resources.” The Minister tions with donors and the hosting overall objective is to establish that foreign investment is key to en- adds: “We encourage foreign com- of world-class summits, which in good governance and transparency suring the growth of Madagascar.” panies to participate in the tender turn, helped consolidate the coun- and ensure for the sustainable de- offer we will be launching.” try’s stability.” velopment of Madagascar, whilst OMNIS is continually carry- safeguarding the interests of the ing out studies of Madagascar’s Last year, the Moroccan National Malagasy people. basins and potential resources in Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines the aim of attracting increased foreign investment. Managing Office of National Mining and Strategic Resources (OMNIS) 21 Lalana Razanakombana Ambohijatovo, Antananarivo, Madagascar | Tel: +261 20 22 242 83 | [email protected] | www.omnis.mg For further information please visit www. prisma-reports.com



COURTESY OF RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND RESEARCH the climate change issue “Held up to a light, his old slides offer a glimpse into another time: broad, hundred-year-old trees in southern Somalia, vines creating a thick canopy over the road...” THE WATSON FILES, P. 46

Yeah, THE WEATHER Has Been WEIRD People already believe in climate change—the trick is getting them to realize it. by Katharine Hayhoe Illustration by Justin Metz 40 MAY | JUNE 2017



O NE II. happen in poor countries where people already live on a few dollars a day. When the brisk morning in March, two years ago, The life of a polar bear revolves around price of food doubles, families go hungry. I found myself at a bustling diner in Salt sea ice. It’s where they feed in the winter Lake City sitting across the table from Ste- on seals, their preferred prey. But today, Amstrup was right: What’s happening ven Amstrup. Lanky and affable, he was Arctic sea ice is in a kind of death spiral. to the bears is happening to people, too. eating a plate of fried eggs cooked just the As the top of the world warms, its ice cap way he liked them: with smashed yolks, as thaws, exposing the ocean beneath it. That I I I. if they’d been “stomped on.” dark water absorbs more of the sun’s energy than the reflective white ice—so the Arctic Despite the fact that the impacts can be We were in Utah to talk about climate heats up even more, triggering a cycle that observed today, a frustratingly large num- change. As chief scientist for Polar Bears is causing the Arctic to warm twice as fast ber of Americans think climate change is International, Amstrup was there to give as the rest of the planet. a hoax. But the largest obstacle we face a series of lectures at Brigham Young Uni- isn’t those who dismiss and disregard the versity on the threat climate change poses The bears’ feeding ground is literally science of climate change, or attack scien- to conservation. My next appointment was melting. As sea ice disappears earlier every tists like me as alarmists, or worse. It’s not with local decision-makers to discuss car- spring and forms later each fall, more polar even the emotionally immediate about- bon pricing and free market solutions. bears are spending more time onshore. But face in the U.S. government’s approach to Though we’d emailed and spoken over the the prey they catch on land isn’t a viable climate policy and scientific research. No, phone, Amstrup and I had never met. But substitute for what they catch on the ice. the most dangerous myth we’ve bought scientists are a naturally curious bunch, That’s why polar bears are one of the first into is the idea that climate change is a so I was eager to pick his brain in person. and most visible species to suffer the effects future concern, one that we can address or of a warming climate. When I went to the ignore without immediate consequence. Amstrup has been researching polar Arctic with Amstrup and his team in 2015, bears for nearly 40 years. He’s tagged and I saw this with my own eyes. into is the idea examined hundreds of individual bears and published more than 150 scientific Historically, the ice on Hudson Bay The idea that we’re invulnerable to any- papers, including the ones that led to polar refreezes in early November. But when we thing the planet might throw at us isn’t bears being listed under the U.S. Endan- made the nearly 2,000-mile trip to Chur- unique to climate change. In Lubbock, gered Species Act. I asked Amstrup jokingly chill that year just in time for Halloween, Texas, where I live, no one doubts the real- how many bears he’d given mouth-to-nose there wasn’t a piece of ice in sight, just ity of tornadoes. Yet as the warnings for the resuscitation to, expecting him to laugh. plenty of ravenous bears. My 8-year-old devastating 1970 tornado—to this day, one Instead, he did some mental math before son had come along, wide-eyed at the sight of the strongest tornadoes to hit the busi- replying, “As many as a dozen.” And then of grown-ups patrolling every corner that ness district of any American city—went he told me about the trip his team takes night to keep trick-or-treaters safe from out, veteran west Texas broadcaster Bob every fall to Churchill, Manitoba, to observe hulking bears that often stray too close Nash dismissed them, saying, “You have the bears in their natural habitat. to civilization. During our first morning less chance of being hit by a tornado than out on the tundra, he shook me awake as being trampled by a dinosaur.” “Why not come see the bears for your- the sun appeared over the horizon. “Look self?” he asked. outside!” he said, pointing. “This bear has We see this attitude reflected in opinions been waking me up all night, standing up about climate change. In a recent Gallup poll, I wanted to go—who wouldn’t? But I and peering in the window at us.” And, sure 68 percent of Americans surveyed said they hesitated. I already had a hectic schedule enough, there was a giant bear right outside planned for the fall, and my focus is on our window: curious, bored—and hungry. how climate change affects people—real humans, in the here and now. Not only Many consequences of climate change that, but I’ve often said that when the polar are far more subtle than a famished bear bear is the most visible mascot of climate inches from a third-grader, but they are no change, it does the rest of us a disservice by less proximate and life-threatening. And making the issue seem remote and distant. they impact us even more directly. From 1981 to 2002, for example, it’s estimated My reluctance must have shown on my that warming temperatures were respon- face because Amstrup then said something sible for an average of $5 billion worth of that completely changed my perspective. wheat, maize, and barley losses each year “We care about the polar bears because around the world. These crop losses often they’re showing us what’s going to hap- pen to us,” he said. “If we don’t heed their warning, we’re next.” 42 MAY | JUNE 2017

believe humans are causing climate change, can’t pick them up and move them farther messengers than heeding their warnings. but only 42 percent agreed that global warm- inland. We prepare for extreme events—the I’m a climate scientist. When I’m asked ing will pose a serious threat in their lifetime. drought of record, or the 100-year flood. When asked if we think climate change will What happens when a stronger drought about global warming, my answer is affect us personally, fully 50 percent of us comes along, or much more frequent unequivocal: It’s real, we’re causing it, and respond with a resounding no. floods? When water resources dry up, in it’s serious. Every week, I receive bile-filled many places there isn’t a new source to messages—through email, Twitter, Face- This is a bigger problem than whether move on to; it’s already taken. By assuming book, and even handwritten letters. They we accept the science of climate change. that the climate will continue to be stable, accuse me of getting rich off my research, or Even for many of us who acknowledge we have built our vulnerability to climate perpetuating a hoax, or even aiding the Anti- that global warming is happening—and change into the very foundation of our christ. Or simply of being stupid, corrupt, or we should, because it is—chances are we infrastructure and socioeconomic systems. evil (or all three!). There are days when it all still see it as just one more item on our over- seems too much, and I consider quitting. But flowing list of priorities. News headlines are I V. I can’t, because too much is at stake. full of urgent problems: refugees, immigra- tion, and the threat of war; the economy, For more than 150 years, we’ve known that I get these messages because I’m stat- energy, and finite resources. As individuals burning coal, gas, and oil produces carbon ing the truth about what’s happening to our daily attention goes to our health, our dioxide, an important heat-trapping gas. our planet. I’m not committed to this only safety, our jobs, and our families. Heat-trapping gases occur naturally in the because I’m a scientist, but because I’m a atmosphere. They keep our planet habitable; human. As a child growing up with one And here is where we need to alter our without them, it would be a ball of ice. But foot in a developed country and the other approach if we’re going to tackle climate by digging up and burning massive amounts in a developing one, I learned the value of change successfully. It’s not a question of clean air to breathe, safe water to drink, and moving climate change “up” our priority healthful food to eat. Today, I’m a mother The most dangerous myth we’ve bought that CLIMATE CHANGE is a future concern. list. I don’t think climate change needs to of carbon, we’re wrapping an extra blanket who wants a safe world for her child to grow be an issue on our lists at all. We care about around our planet, a blanket it doesn’t need. up in—and everyone else’s as well. I’m a life- a changing climate because it affects nearly And that’s why the world is warming. long Christian who believes that we should every one of those things that are already love others as Christ loved us and care for on our priority lists. By the 1890s, we knew how much global those who are suffering, their vulnerability temperature would increase if we continued exacerbated by a changing climate. Almost 7.5 billion of us have built our to burn fossil fuels. Yes, there’s always more cities and our countries under the implicit to learn when it comes to understanding Americans are more deeply divided assumption that climate is stable, and that this complex planet we live on. But it’s been along political lines than at any time in the conditions we’ve experienced in the more than 50 years since U.S. scientists felt recent history, and climate change may past are reliable predictors of the future. the evidence was sufficient to formally warn be one of the most critical casualties of Today, though, that assumption is no lon- President Lyndon B. Johnson about the this divide. The United States is an outlier ger true. Earth’s climate is changing far dangers posed by global warming. Climate among developed countries: The major- faster than at any other time in human change isn’t a future problem anymore. It’s ity of a political party holds that climate history. Two-thirds of the world’s largest happening here and now, but lately every- change isn’t a real problem. As a direct cities lie within a few feet of sea level. We one seems more interested in shooting the result, the No. 1 predictor of what we think FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 43

about climate science isn’t how much we V. Last year, in a hotel ballroom in San know about science, but where we fall on Antonio, I gave a talk on climate to some the political spectrum. The further to the I live in Texas, where many of the world’s 300 water conservation experts from across right we are, the more likely we are to reject largest energy companies have settled. The the state. The record-breaking 2011 drought it as a hoax. biggest carbon emitter in the United States, had awakened them to the challenge that Texas would be the seventh-largest polluter water poses for Texas’s growing population. So it’s no surprise that one of the most on the globe if it were its own country. The But most Texans still question the link to frequent questions I’m asked is: “Could Lone Star State also has Rep. Lamar Smith, human-induced change, and my presen- you explain the science to my elected rep- who opened a March hearing of the House tation followed that of a state senator who resentative? If they knew the truth, I’m Committee on Science, Space, and Technol- rated an F on the League of Conservation sure they’d get it.” But the biggest thing ogy, which he chairs, with a diatribe against Voters’ scorecard, and the executive direc- I’ve learned during the past 10 years in climate scientists. “Far too often, alarmist tor of a state agency that maintains “the sci- talking to farmers, Rotary Club members, theories on climate science originate with ence of climate change is far from settled.” city planners, and petroleum engineers is scientists who operate outside of the prin- that science won’t convince many of those ciples of the scientific method,” said the I started with water, how we never have who are in denial. This may sound strange Republican, who later added, “All too often, enough unless we have too much. I talked coming from a scientist, but agreeing on scientists ignore the basic tenets of science.” about how temperatures are increasing the impacts and solutions matters much If there was ever a state that might seem as throughout the state, and how rainfall is more than agreeing on the science. Aston- if it needs new values, sound science, and a becoming more erratic in many regions. ishingly, it is often easier to concur with smack upside the head, Texas is it. I showed predictions of drier and hotter actions that will increase our resilience to summers as the world warms by one, two, or current risks and actions that will lead us Yet when we add up all the weather even three degrees. Then I focused on what to the new clean-energy economy than to and climate disasters since 1980 that have we can do: Make smart water choices, plan put faith in scientific facts that are more caused over $1 billion worth of damage— than a century old. droughts and floods, wildfires and torna- to connect the dots does, hurricanes and hail—Texas stands By following this train of thought, we out as having the most such events of any ahead, and prepare for a water-scarce future. arrive at a simple yet potentially revolution- state. For many of these weather extremes, During my presentation, I avoided the ary understanding: Getting people to care climate change is loading the dice against words “climate” and “change” in sequence, about a changing climate doesn’t require us. In some areas, heavy rainfall is becom- even though that’s what the talk was about. adopting “new” values. Gone is the burden ing more severe, increasing flood risk. In of inspiring people to “care” about defor- others, droughts will get more intense The event went well. No one interrupted estation and melting ice caps. No need to and more expensive. Hurricanes, fueled to object, and everyone clapped at the teach them to hug a tree, respect a polar bear by record warm ocean water, are ramping end—even enthusiastically. Afterward, (hugging not advisable), or throw them- up, and Texas is right in the crosshairs of quite a few people wanted to chat with me. selves into land conservation. Most remark- this increasing risk. First in line was an animated woman in a ably, the implication of this new perspective tailored Chanel-style suit who shook my is that imparting urgency and concern is just Incrementally, attitudes are changing, hand vigorously before saying, “You know a matter of showing people how to connect too. The other day, while waiting to pick those people who are always talking about the dots among the issues they already care up my son, another parent came up to me. global warming? I don’t agree with them at about, and how those issues are affected “Can I ask you something?” he said. “Do you all. But this? This makes sense.” by—and in many cases are threatened by—a think our weather is getting weirder?” Yes, changing climate. I said, I think it is. “I knew it!” he exclaimed Other people who may not be as triumphantly. “I’ve lived here more than I’ve seen it work. I’ve watched people’s 30 years, and I can tell.” This year’s winter attitudes change, going from flat denial of was the state’s warmest on record, as the global warming to jumping into the fight to much-beloved bluebonnet season began prepare for it or even stop it. I’ve seen farm- and peaked a month earlier than usual. ers talk about why they prefer wind turbines Across the country, nearly everyone has to oil pump jacks. Water planners who work a bluebonnet story now. The majority of for an organization that doesn’t officially people in every single congressional dis- acknowledge climate change have asked trict, red or blue, recognize that, yes, things me for future projections. And all this has are changing, including the severity of our happened in the most unlikely of places— summers and the length of our droughts. the place I call home. 44 MAY | JUNE 2017

concerned about the effects of warming Although Texas is not doing much to the warning scientists delivered to LBJ on see the benefits of transitioning to clean address climate change—Gov. Greg Abbott that day in November 1965. energy. The fastest-growing job in the dismisses the science of climate change, as United States is wind energy technician, does state Attorney General Ken Paxton—I I traveled to Paris a few weeks after Hud- according to Bureau of Labor Statistics have been heartened by the changes I have son Bay to witness a very different event— projections. That’s particularly true in seen throughout the state. City managers the world negotiating a plan to keep global Texas, which had almost 12,000 wind tur- recognize that climate change is affecting warming “well below” 2 degrees Celsius. bines as of the first quarter of 2017, more us now, and they know it is only exacerbat- Two degrees isn’t a magic number that than any other state. Wind generated ing the problems we face. It isn’t a priority will avert all negative consequences, but about 15 percent of our power last year on their list; it affects everything already it puts a limit on this experiment we’ve and 23 percent in the first quarter of 2017, on their list. That’s reason for us to care, been conducting inadvertently. The Paris according to data from the Electric Reli- whether we recognize it or not. Agreement on climate change gives us a ability Council of Texas, the grid operator viable target, and 145 countries have rat- for most of the state, and more turbines VI. ified it (though 41 of the original signers are being installed every week. Along with still need to do so). wind, Texas has huge solar potential. New When I saw the polar bears in Churchill clean-energy installations, both solar and with Steven Amstrup, Hudson Bay didn’t The link between human warming of wind, are powering Army bases like Fort freeze until December. “The ice-free sea- the world and polar bear welfare makes Hood (saving taxpayers some $168 mil- son is nearly a month longer than it was these animals an iconic messenger for the lion over the life of the contract), Face- three decades ago,” he said, which means risks of climate change, but it’s one that’s book’s new data center in Fort Worth, and the bears’ time to hunt and feed is consid- entirely consistent with humans as mes- places like Georgetown, Texas. As oil patch erably—and detrimentally—shorter. There sengers, too. Both of our fates hinge on living in a safe, secure place that provides access to the resources we need. This is why It’s just a matter of showing people how among the issues they ALREADY care about. workers have lost their jobs due to falling are many important research questions to Amstrup and his team are so focused on prices, solar companies have taken them answer. But, he said, we know what we need in to retrain them. to do to save the bears. If sea ice continues to telling people about the threats posed by shrink, the bear population on Hudson Bay A poll conducted by the Yale Program could be gone by the middle of the century. global warming and what we can do about on Climate Change Communication in 2016 showed there are wide swathes of the As the polar bears see their world chang- it. And this is why I’m so focused on com- country where less than 50 percent of peo- ing around them, so do we, but with one big ple agree that climate is changing mostly difference: We have the capacity to recog- municating the risks of a changing climate. because of human activities. But when nize why this is happening, how it’s affect- they asked another question, they got a ing us, and how we can respond. Since the Together, we confront both a challenge and different, and more encouraging, answer. Industrial Revolution, we have been con- More than 80 percent of people across the ducting an unprecedented experiment a hope. Although some impacts are inev- country agree that it makes sense to invest with our planet. We can’t guarantee a safe in renewable energy, and 66 percent would future if we don’t bring it to a close. Now’s itable, by acting now it’s possible to save require utilities to do the same. the time to pull the plug and finally heed the polar bears—and ourselves. Q KATHARINE HAYHOE (@KHayhoe) is an atmo- spheric scientist. She has conducted climate impact assessments for organi- zations, cities, and regions, from Boston Logan Airport to the state of California. FOREIGNPOLICY.COM 45

A policeman stands beside a riverbank outside the Somali town of Geerisa the day after a deadly flash flood. 46 MAY | JUNE 2017

The WATSON FILES What if there were a blueprint for climate adaptation that could end Somalia’s civil war? An English scientist spent his life developing one—then he vanished without a trace. by Laura Heaton Photographs by Nichole Sobecki

Watson knew the dangers of working kidnappers, whom the journalist by then in this region, but over the years he had believed to be members of al-Shabab. The honed a set of instincts that usually kept man’s demands ranged from $2 million to him out of harm’s way. He had lived in $4 million for the ecologist’s safe return. Somalia on and off for more than a decade Watson’s family couldn’t pay, his country (from the late 1970s until the government wouldn’t, and the trail has been quiet ever collapsed in 1991), spoke basic Somali, and since. No group has claimed his killing. No was married to a Somali-Kenyan woman. remains have ever been found. He was fluent in the country’s ever-shift- For years after the kidnapping, the small ing power dynamics. But no amount of cadre of environmentalists still working in local knowledge could have saved him Somalia had assumed that decades’ worth that spring morning. of scientific knowledge compiled by Wat- About an hour after they left the hotel, son had also been lost. Without vital land as they bumped along a dirt road that ran surveys that vanished during the civil war, parallel to the Jubba River, Watson and it would be hard to determine precisely Amukhuma came upon a vehicle block- how or at what rate the country’s climate ing their path. Six gunmen lay in wait. The was changing—and therefore difficult to driver attempted an evasive U-turn but got design measures that could limit the dam- stuck in a gully as the attackers opened fire. age. But a recent discovery, made more JUST Watson was hit, and blood soaked through than 4,000 miles away in Britain, has sud- the sleeve of his shirt. One of the guards denly resurrected the possibility of con- surrendered his weapon; the other fled on tinuing Watson’s environmental work. It after sunrise on April 1, 2008, the foot after firing a few rounds. The gunmen renowned English ecologist Murray Wat- tied up the driver and translator, leaving son left the Saakow Hotel, a modest con- them behind. Then they pushed Watson crete guesthouse in rural southern Somalia, and Amukhuma into the car and sped off heading off for work in a Nissan Patrol. deeper into the wilderness. He and a Kenyan colleague, an engineer One of the guards managed to call the named Patrick Amukhuma, along with a Saakow Hotel and a band of local mili- country wouldn’t, translator and two guards, were on their tia quickly mobilized to search for the way to finish up a survey of flood-prone researchers. When they got to the scene areas for the United Nations using an aerial of the ambush, they found Watson’s driver, and ground survey technique Watson had the translator, and the guards. The kid- pioneered decades earlier. nappers and their victims were long gone. One of the more lush regions in a largely For days, authorities from Britain’s arid country, the area covered by Watson’s embassy in neighboring Kenya worked survey was also among the most hazardous. to track them down. So did a number It was crawling with al-Shabab extremists, of Watson’s friends and acquaintances, has also revealed the extent to which his who had taken to extorting the banana and including the veteran BBC reporter Owen legacy may be intertwined with the fate sugarcane farms that unfurled along the Bennett-Jones, who was based in London of Somalia itself. banks of the Shabelle and Jubba rivers. but had contacts at the BBC Somali Service. Increasingly erratic rainfall, a phenomenon The Brits sent at least two search parties to Somalia is a country long scientists have linked to climate change, case the area around Jilib—a town where was further threatening the farms by caus- they believed he was being held, about 100 beset by extremes. In its harsh and arid ing frequent floods that Watson hoped his miles south of Saakow—and assess the scrublands, where temperatures can survey could help mitigate. Though the feasibility of an extraction, but they were exceed 110 degrees Fahrenheit, nomadic 69-year-old Englishman wouldn’t have never able to establish exactly where the people eke out a living on just inches of described it as such, he was leading a kidnappers were holding Watson. rainfall each year. The margin for survival groundbreaking climate adaptation effort A few days after the abduction, Ben- is razor thin, and drought has often sparked in a country that is among the most vulner- nett-Jones started getting calls from a bloody conflict over livestock and other able to climate change—and to the conflict Somali man who spoke excellent English resources. When the rains fail, herds of that often follows in its wake. and claimed to be a negotiator for the camels and goats wither and die, often wip- 48 MAY | JUNE 2017