Foreign Policy - #209 November-December 2014

PLUS GEORGE PACKER ON THE NEW WORLD DISORDER BILL MCKIBBEN ON EARTH’S MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION GILLIAN TETT ON THE INEQUALITY OBSESSION A WORLD DISRUPTED THE LEADING GLOBAL THINKERS OF 2014 $8.99 U.S./CAN NOV/DEC 2014 FOREIGNPOLICY.COM

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LETTER FROM THE EDITORS Disruption, But Not Despair Un bien pour un mal, goes the French phrase—a blessing in disguise, or good that comes cloaked in bad. This year, when morning headlines proclaimed doom and disaster day after day, it began to feel routine to hope, fiercely, for just that: a grace that would emerge from the evil and destruction afflicting the world. In late winter, a revanchist Moscow laid claim to Crimea, our cover image, a Molotov cocktail in mid-explosion. It’s setting off months of violent, pro-Russian separatism on a metaphor for violence, certainly, but also one for defi- Europe’s eastern periphery, leaving more than 3,600 dead and ance, for resistance, for unleashing the startlingly new. The hundreds of thousands displaced. In April, the terrorist group image, like the majority of Global Thinkers on our list, is a Boko Haram, which had been wreaking murderous havoc and reminder that change can start at any second: change that is gaining ground in northern Nigeria, kidnapped more than 200 destructive, beautiful, inspirational—sometimes all at once. schoolgirls from the town of Chibok and vowed to kill or enslave them. The history books might remember Then emerged the Islamic State, an this year as one in which people sowed army of thousands that poured out of chaos and fear. But it was also a year northern Syria into Iraq, leaving a trail when health workers risked their lives of death and wanton bloodshed. Add to save thousands of strangers in West to these events an Ebola epidemic that Africa, when protesters took to the has ravaged the fragile states of West streets demanding government reform Africa, racial tensions in the American from Hong Kong to Caracas, when inno- heartland, the hottest year on record vators worked to ensure a nuclear-zero for the planet, and you have 2014. world. Others, as environmentalist and author Bill McKibben notes in his essay, So when it came time for FOREIGN galvanized grassroots movements to POLICY to put together its annual list guard humanity from approaching of 100 Leading Global Thinkers, our environmental calamity. Artists’ explo- opening category was clear, albeit sive creativity, meanwhile, offered new sobering: the Agitators of a World visions of the past, present, and future, Disrupted, as we have named them. and advocates supported civilians They include Russian President caught in the cross-hairs of war with Vladimir Putin, Islamic State leader boldness and determination rivaling in Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Boko Haram strength even the megalomania of the chief Abubakar Shekau, and others agitators. Add to this businessmen and whose ideas and actions have rocked businesswomen who are reinvigorat- the foundations of geopolitical order. As author and journalist ing marketplaces and chroniclers telling the most important George Packer writes in his essay in this issue, above all stories of our time in pioneering ways, and you have 2014. these actors have “revealed the waning of America’s abili- Disruption, clearly, is not always a bad thing. ty to control events—not just its willingness and ability to In this tumultuous year, FP’s Global Thinkers are project force, but the attractive power of liberal democracy individuals who shook the world as we knew it. And, in as a counterweight to authoritarianism and extremism.” doing so, many of them have helped build a far better one. Yet the message in this issue is not one of despair. Take —The Editors FOREIGN POLICY 3

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CONTENTS PG 48 The 2014 Leading Global Thinkers 50 THE AGITATORS ABU BAKR AL BAGHDADI VLADIMIR PUTIN ALEXANDER DUGIN ABUBAKAR SHEKAU 52 THE BIRTH OF A NEW CENTURY BY GEORGE PACKER ALEXANDER BORODAI HAJJAJ AL AJMI ABD AL RAHMAN KHALAF AL ANIZI JIHADI JOHN 57 THE DECISION MAKERS NARENDRA MODI ANGELA MERKEL AMIT SHAH HASSAN ROUHANI CATHERINE SAMBA PANZA LUIS VIDEGARAY AYDAN ÖZOGUZ LUIS ALMAGRO JOSÉ MUJICA MATTEO RENZI 61 THE CHALLENGERS THOMAS PIKETTY BENNY TAI JOSHUA WONG TETYANA CHORNOVOL ORIOL JUNQUERAS ALEX SALMOND MARINE LE PEN THE FEMALE FIGHTERS OF KURDISTAN 64 ANXIETY IN THE AGE OF INEQUALITY BY GILLIAN TETT ANAT ADMATI BENJAMIN LAWSKY LEOPOLDO LÓPEZ THULI MADONSELA SUTHEP THAUGSUBAN KARA SWISHER HOUCINE ABASSI 68 THE NATURALS AKIRA MIYAWAKI RUTH BUENDÍA KATHARINE HAYHOE PARTHA DASGUPTA VEERABHADRAN RAMANATHAN 70 EXTREME HEIGHTS BY BILL MCKIBBEN IOANE TEITIOTA JOHN KOVAC SONJA HEIKKILÄ ALETA BAUN 73 THE INNOVATORS JENNIFER LEWIS MYLSWAMY ANNADURAI JANET IWASA EMMANUELLE CHARPENTIER JENNIFER DOUDNA BOAZ BARAK ALEXANDER GLASER ROBERT GOLDSTON FLORENT BOUDOIRE ARTUR BRAUN EDWIN CONSTABLE JAKOB HEIER RITA TOTH PALMER LUCKEY THIERRY N’DOUFOU CHRISTINA WATSON ELIZABETH HOLMES STEVEN MOLLENKOPF ARYE KOHAVI MIKE JANKE PHIL ZIMMERMANN 78 THE ADVOCATES HANNA HOPKO RAMI ABDUL RAHMAN HAGAI EL AD ZAINAB BANGURA BERNARD KINVI PATRICK NAINANGUE LENA KLIMOVA YEVGENY VITISHKO IRIS YASSMÍN BARRIOS AGUILAR ILHAM TOHTI BIRAM DAH ABEID WENDY YOUNG GLORIA AMPARO MARITZA ASPRILLA CRUZ MERY MEDINA XIAO MEILI 82 THE CHRONICLERS SHUBHRANSHU CHOUDHARY ELENA FERRANTE HAJOOJ KUKA MICHAEL LEWIS CRISTINA DE MIDDEL ROBERTO TROTTA BINYAVANGA WAINAINA MARYAM MIRZAKHANI JOHN OLIVER JENNIFER EBERHARDT PADMINI PRAKASH SIÂN EVANS DOROTHY HOWARD RICHARD KNIPEL JACQUELINE MABEY MICHAEL MANDIBERG LAUREL PTAK FARAH BAKER 89 THE HEALERS JOSEPHINE FINDA SELLU KEVIN WHALEY LARRY ZEITLIN KATHRYN HUNT TANYA LUHRMANN GORDANA VUNJAK NOVAKOVIC DEEPAK KAPUR JOHN ROTHER MICHAEL SOFIA WENG KUNG PENG BRIAN GRIMBERG JOHN LEWANDOWSKI SANGEETA BHATIA 93 THE ARTISTS KARA WALKER MAYMANAH FARHAT MOHANNAD ORABI JASON DECAIRES TAYLOR ALEXANDER PONOMAREV NADIM SAMMAN RITHY PANH SAM HOPKINS KILUANJI KIA HENDA CAMILLE HENROT SILVER X ANILA RUBIKU SHAMSIA HASSANI HONG SUNG DAM SHIGERU BAN 101 THE MOGULS JACK MA GENNADY TIMCHENKO KIRAN MAZUMDAR SHAW LEI JUN ARUNDHATI BHATTACHARYA REEMA BINT BANDAR AL SAUD JAY FLATLEY 18 Pictured E Is for Egalitarian DEPARTMENTS 104 In Other Words Artwork by Jonathas de Andrade Character Development 24 Ideas Swedish Fish, Lord of the Flies, 20 Anthropology of an Idea Girl Power Means Boy Power By Ruth Franklin Biomimetics By Jake Scobey-Thal By Alicia P.Q. Wittmeyer 112 Column The Dumbing Down 22 The Things They Carried 26 Epiphanies Christine Lagarde of Smart—and Washington The Climate Scientist Interview by David Rothkopf By David Rothkopf By Thomas Stackpole 28 Dispatch The Forgotten Streets By Scott C. Johnson ON THE COVER: PHOTOGRAPH BY MARCEL CHRIST FOR FP FOREIGN POLICY 5

David Rothkopf CEO AND EDITOR THE FP GROUP Mindy Kay Bricker Benjamin Pauker EXECUTIVE EDITOR EXECUTIVE EDITOR PRINT ONLINE Seyward Darby Yochi Dreazen DEPUTY EDITOR, PRINT MANAGING EDITOR, NEWS Lindsay Ballant CREATIVE DIRECTOR Amy Finnerty Rebecca Frankel Nicole Duran ARTICLES EDITOR SENIOR EDITOR, SPECIAL PROJECTS SENIOR EDITOR, NEWS SENIOR EDITORS, TEA LEAF NATION Rachel Lu, David Wertime SENIOR STAFF WRITERS Colum Lynch, Gopal Ratnam MIDDLE EAST EDITOR David Kenner SENIOR REPORTERS Kate Brannen, John Hudson, ASIA EDITOR Isaac Stone Fish Keith Johnson, Jamila Trindle ASSOCIATE EDITOR Max Strasser STAFF WRITER David Francis ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITORS Jake Scobey-Thal, COPY CHIEF Preeti Aroon Alicia P.Q. Wittmeyer COPY EDITOR Vanessa H. Larson ART DIRECTOR Ed Johnson HOMEPAGE EDITOR Emma Carew Grovum ASSISTANT EDITORS Elias Groll, Siddhartha Mahanta WEB DEVELOPER Erik Reyna Thomas Stackpole, Prachi Vidwans FELLOW, TEA LEAF NATION Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian FELLOWS Justine Drennan, Siobhán O’Grady EDITORIAL RESEARCHER, TEA LEAF NATION Shujie Leng EDITORIAL RESEARCHERS Simon Engler, Reid Standish CONTRIBUTING EDITORS Daniel Altman, John Arquilla, Peter Bergen, David Bosco, Ian Bremmer, Rosa Brooks, Christian Caryl, Mohamed A. El-Erian, Peter D. Feaver, David E. Hoffman, William Inboden, Charles Kenny, Christina Larson, Aaron David Miller, Thomas E. Ricks, J. Peter Scoblic, James Traub, Stephen M. Walt, Micah Zenko SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, CIRCULATION, GLOBAL ADVERTISING SALES DIGITAL STRATEGY AND OPERATIONS Christopher Cotnoir Amer Yaqub VICE PRESIDENT, ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND BRAND MANAGEMENT Ian Keller Tara Vohra VICE PRESIDENT, INTERNATIONAL Emily Simon WEB DIRECTOR Tim Showers WEB DEVELOPERS Josh Mobley, DIRECTORS, INTERNATIONAL Priya Nannapaneni, Saxon Stiller Duc Luu, Aaron Schumacher DIRECTOR, CONTENT SALES DIRECTOR, ADVERTISING Keith Arends Brian Ackerman ASSISTANT DIRECTOR, MARKETING RESEARCH VICE PRESIDENT, COMMUNICATIONS AND AD TRAFFICKING Carol Ross Joynt PRESS DIRECTOR Matthew J. Curry Maria Ory SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, VICE PRESIDENT, EVENTS CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER Grace Rooney Allen Chin DEPUTY DIRECTOR, EVENTS Stephanie Cherkezian ASSISTANT TO THE CEO Hilary Kline JUNIOR ACCOUNTANT Luyi Shonekan Foreign Policy 11 Dupont Circle NW, Suite 600, Washington, D.C. 20036 PUBLISHING OFFICE: 202 728 7300 | SUBSCRIPTIONS: 800 535 6343 SUBSCRIPTIONS SUBSCRIBER SERVICES Foreign Policy, P.O. Box 283, Congers, NY 10920-0283; ForeignPolicy.com/services; e-mail: [email protected]; (800) 535-6343 in U.S.; (845) 267-3050 outside U.S.; Publi- cations mail agreement no. 40778561. Rates (in U.S. funds): $59.99 for one year. For academic rates, go to ForeignPolicy.com/education. NEWSSTAND AND BOOKSTORE DISTRIBUTION Curtis Circulation Company, 730 River Road, New Milford, NJ 07646-3048; (201) 634-7400. BACK ISSUES $10.95 per copy. International airmail add $3.00 per copy; online: ForeignPolicy.com/backissues; e-mail: [email protected]. SYNDICATION REQUESTS Contact Matthew Curry (202) 728-7351; [email protected]. OTHER PERMISSION REQUESTS Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (978) 750-8400; www.copyright.com. FOR ADVERTISING Call (202) 728-7310. 2009 NATIONAL MAGAZINE AWARD GENERAL EXCELLENCE © 2014 by The FP Group, a division of Graham Holdings Company, which bears no responsibility for the editorial content; the views expressed in the articles are those of the authors. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher.

OUR NEIGHBORHOOD. TREASURY WHITE COMMERCE OAS FEDERAL NATIONAL ACADEMY DEPARTMENT HOUSE DEPARTMENT RESERVE OF SCIENCES WORLD IMF THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY THE ELLIOTT SCHOOL STATE BANK OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT YOUR FUTURE. GW’s Elliott School of International Affairs is located just steps from some of the most important policymaking institutions in the world. Our proximity to U.S. and international organizations puts our scholars in a powerful position to analyze policy prob- lems as they unfold, and it draws world leaders to our campus to address some of the most important issues of our time. Every school of international affairs bridges the theory and practice of foreign policy. At GW’s Elliott School of International Affairs, we don’t need bridges; we have sidewalks. elliott.gwu.edu

CONTRIBUTORS “BASICALLY, WE JUST PACK A CLEAR GLASS bottle with a small amount of explo- sives. They are connected by wire to a detonator that we control. We then put the bottle in a plexiglass box—about 1.5 feet by 1.5 feet— filled to the brim with water. This is where the explosion happens. And of course the walls are bulletproof; you never know where the shards of the bottle will go. We want to photograph the exact millisecond after we detonate, right when you can see the fire of the explosion, but also with the shape of the bottle still intact. That’s the perfect timing and most mesmerizing moment. If you flash with a delay of two millisec- onds, you’re too late. In order to do this, we use a laser that senses movement. Right as the bottle erupts, the laser triggers the cam- era’s flash. We are using very high- speed flash equipment that goes up to a 1/50,000 of a second, but it’s still difficult to get the timing right and we often have to re-engineer the explosion multiple times. For this cover, we did about 15 takes. It’s nice, though; you see amazing details each time—all kinds of in- teresting textures and color combi- nations. Every explosion is different and surprisingly beautiful.” MARCEL CHRIST Amsterdam-based photographer | COVER GEORGE PACKER GILLIAN TETT is As an author, RUTH FRANKLIN is a staff a columnist environmen- is a book writer for the and the U.S. talist, and critic and a New Yorker managing activist, BILL contributing and the editor MCKIBBEN is on editor at the author of the for the the front lines New Republic; 2013 National Financial of grassroots her book, A Book Award-winning The Un- Times. Since joining the FT, advocacy against climate Thousand Darknesses: Lies and winding: An Inner History of she has worked in the former change. A former staff writer Truth in Holocaust Fiction, was the New America. In his report- Soviet Union, Western for the New Yorker, McKibben published by Oxford University ing, Packer has covered the Europe, and Japan. Her has written about global warm- Press in 2010. Her work has Iraq War, atrocities committed 2009 book, Fool’s Gold, won ing and its costs in publications appeared in the New Yorker, the in Sierra Leone, civil unrest in Financial Book of the Year at such as the New York Review New York Review of Books, the Ivory Coast, and counterinsur- the inaugural Spear’s Book of Books, National Geographic, New York Times Book Review, gency worldwide. | P. 52 Awards. | P. 64 and Rolling Stone. | P. 70 and the Washington Post. | P. 104 8 NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2014



LETTERS ‘Needless in the United States without meter. Perhaps the most Solid Euphemisms’ legal authorization. 8 U.S. chilling example of the effort Foundation Code § 1101 defines an alien to manipulate the language Polemicists, politicians, and as “any person not a citizen or of the debate is the recent The White House’s rhetoric tyrants have long understood national of the United States.” publication and distribution during President Barack that language does not just An illegal alien is a foreign of the “Media-Friendly Obama’s first term suggested he express ideas; it also shapes national who is in a country Glossary on Migration”; wanted to be more engaged ideas and influences the way in violation of U.S. law. funded by George Soros’s and more transformative people think. Nowhere is the Open Society Foundations in internationally than any manipulation of language “Illegal alien” is not collaboration with an obscure U.S. president since John F. and perception more evident a derogatory term. As A U.N. agency, the Alliance of Kennedy. Expectations, then, than in the contemporary Dictionary of Modern Legal Civilizations, it amounts to were high. Consequently, debate about immigration Usage notes, “[I]llegal alien is nothing less than a frontal Obama set himself up for the policy. As Jake Scobey-Thal not an opprobrious epithet: assault on clear language. criticism—offered so (“Anthropology of an Idea: Il- it describes one present in eloquently by David Rothkopf legal Alien,” September/Octo- a country in violation of the If there is to be actual (“National Insecurity,” ber 2014) illustrates, the battle immigration laws (hence reform of U.S. immigration September/October 2014)— over terminology pertaining to ‘illegal’).” The dictionary policies that truly serve the that, in practice, his foreign immigration can be as heated also goes one step further, interests of the American policy has been marred as the policy debate itself. condemning the use of terms people, then the current debate by a lack of interest. such as “undocumented must be framed using sharp If proponents of open worker” as “needless euphe- but respectful language. Illegal  It is true that the pres- immigration and amnesty for misms” that “should be avoided aliens are not inherently bad ident’s policy toward the illegal aliens (there, I used as near-gobbledygook.” people, but they are foreign broader Middle East, as well the term) are to achieve their nationals who have no legal as al Qaeda and its affiliates, political ends, they must first Euphemism and near- right to be in America. They is in serious trouble. He control the language of the gobbledygook are precisely should be defined accurately. neglected Syria for three debate. They must create the the objectives of those trying years, and now the Islamic false impression in the minds to create the impression DAN STEIN State chickens have come of the American people that that taking up residence in President, Federation for home to roost. In Iraq, his violation of U.S. immigra- the United States illegally American Immigration unwillingness to put some tion laws is, at minimum, a is on par with forgetting to Reform, Washington, D.C. special forces and military completely innocuous act, put a quarter in the parking and perhaps even noble. Rather than lawbreakers, the people who settle in the United States illegally must be defined in euphemistic terms that obfuscate both their deeds and their impact on the people whom U.S. laws are meant to protect. These laws are clearly meant to safeguard U.S. citizens’ vital interests: eco- nomic, social, and national security, among others. While it may be in the interest of foreigners to immigrate, and while immigration may also serve some narrow domes- tic political and economic interests, excessive inflows of illegal aliens can inflict significant harm on Ameri- can workers and taxpayers. The use of the term “illegal alien” clearly and accurately describes people who are living FOREIGN POLICY welcomes letters to the editor. Readers should address their comments to [email protected]. Letters may be edited for length and clarity. For more debate and discussion of our stories, go to FOREIGNPOLICY.com. 10 NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2014

LETTERS advisory teams on the ground  On Ukraine and Russia, Strategic Reassurance and THE PRESIDENT with Iraqi Army units will Obama rightly began the U.S. Resolve: U.S.-China Relations STILL NEEDS, AS probably need to be response with mild sanctions in the Twenty-First Century.  ROTHKOPF WROTE, reassessed. In Libya, Obama’s over the Crimea issue. He TO SAVE HIMSELF. main failing is not his handling avoided pursuit of immediate  On Iran, building on BUT THIS SAVING of the Benghazi attack per escalation, in both military President George W. Bush’s IS LESS FROM A se, but the hands-off approach and economic terms, which legacy, Obama has patiently DISASTER THAN the United States has taken to European allies would not put together progressively FROM A FOREIGN helping the country get back have supported in any event, stronger sanctions using POLICY THAT HAS on its feet since the overthrow and rightly focused on deter- creative formal and infor- LOST SOME OF THE of Muammar al-Qaddafi. In rence of even more egregious mal means, establishing the ENERGY AND FOCUS addition, the president’s overall action by Moscow in eastern conditions that gave rise OF EARLIER TIMES. rhetoric about the need for Ukraine. It is much too early to President Hassan Rou- minimalism and retrenchment to declare success, but the hani’s election there. These some of the energy and focus in U.S. foreign policy, while current situation looks far conditions now give at least of earlier times. The needed apparently what voters want at more promising than it did some hope for a negoti- repair work is more akin to one level, is not actually what just a few months ago. ated settlement over the carpentry than to wholesale they expect from their com- nuclear issue. And if force construction of a new edifice. mander in chief—and it is not  On China (and North does prove a necessary last adequate to the task at hand. Korea), Obama’s April trip resort, few will be able to MICHAEL O’HANLON to the region restored some say that Obama invoked the Co-director, Center for 21st  Yet the allegations of momentum to his “rebal- military option too soon. Century Security and weakness and irresoluteness ance” policy. This policy is Intelligence, Brookings now being made against the not overly muscular, but  Add it up, and it is a Institution, Washington, D.C. president are, to my mind, that is correct for a situation decent grand strategy at the badly wrong. On most of in which the United States broad level, even if it has the big issues, his policies should be demonstrating serious shortcomings with are at least pointing in the resolve while also seeking regard to the Middle East. right general direction, to reassure and cooperate The president still needs, even if, in some cases, they with Beijing, something as Rothkopf wrote, to save are in need of refinement James Steinberg and I himself. But this saving is and reinvigoration. argue in our new book, less from a disaster than from a foreign policy that has lost 2014 Statement of Ownership, Management and Circulation 1. Publication Title: Foreign Policy 2. Publication Number: 0879-260 3. Filing Date: 9/30/14 4. Issue Frequency: Bi-Monthly 5. Number of Issues Published Annually: 6 6. Annual Subscription Price: $59.99 7. Complete Mailing Address of Known Office of Publication: 11 Dupont Circle NW, Suite 600 Washington, DC 20036 8. Complete Mailing Address of Headquarters or General Business Office of Publisher: Same as No. 7. 9. Full Names and Complete Mailing Addresses Publisher, Editor and Managing Editor: SVP Global Advertising Sales: Amer Yaqub Same address as no. 7 Executive Editor: Mindy Kay Bricker, Same address as no. 7 Managing Editor: Benjamin Pauker, Same address as no. 7 10. 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No. Copies Each Issue During Preceding 12 Months; 62,923; No. Copies of Single Issue Published Nearest to Filing Date 58,735; (G) Copies not Distributed Avg. No. Copies Each Issue During Preceding 12 Months 28,121; No. Copies of Single Issue Published Nearest to Filing Date, 29,419; (H) Total Avg. No. Copies Each Issue During Preceding 12 Months 91,044; No. Copies of Single Issue Published Nearest to Filing Date, 88154; (I) Percent Paid/Requested Distribution Avg. No. Copies Each Issue During Preceding 12 Months; 53.2% No. Copies of Single Issue Published Nearest to Filing Date 63.7% 16. This is a general publication. Publication of this Statement of Ownership will be printed in the December 2014 issue of this publication. 17. I certify that all information furnished on this form is true and complete. I understand that anyone that furnishes false or misleading information on this form or who omits material or information requested on this form may be subject to criminal sanctions (including fines and imprisonment) and/or civil sanctions (including civil penalties). Christopher Cotnoir, September 28th 2014. FOREIGN POLICY 11

Special Advertising Supplement NIGERIA Fast Growth; Big Problems No other emerging market offers the potential of Nigeria. Projected to have the world’s fourth-largest population by 2040 and to become an economic leader by the mid-21st century, the oil-rich nation is trying to improve governance and modernize its economy. But its challenges are immense—not least the corruption, oil theft, poverty, and a brutal insurgency. T he International Monetary The IMF does not project so far ahead, policies while boosting public and private Fund (IMF) predicts that Ni- but it is quite positive about the near-term investment. A year later, he launched the geria’s economy will grow outlook. “Structural reforms under the Transformation Agenda, with an empha- by 7 percent this year and by Transformation Agenda are ongoing,” the sis on bringing private investment into oil, slightly more next year; then it will ease to fund noted in its April 2014 country report. gas and power. 6.8 percent by 2019. But what’s really ex- “Growth is expected to remain strong, citing is where this prolonged expansion driven by agriculture, trade, and services.” “Nigeria’s development efforts have path could lead—if Nigeria’s problems can However, it cautioned that “significant in- over the years been characterized by lack be overcome. By the middle of of continuity, consistency and commit- this century, according to projec- frastructure gaps and weak institutional tions by Goldman Sachs, Nigeria capacity still retard growth prospects.” ment (3Cs) to agreed policies, pro- could boast the world’s 13th- A Long Road Ahead grams and projects as well as an ab- largest economy, right behind Dealing with generational legacy issues sence of a long-term perspective,” France and Germany. Moody’s is rarely quick or easy, and Nigeria is not read the agenda. “The culminating puts Nigeria in the top 15 within without its share of problems, many of effect has been growth and devel- the same time frame, up from which dominate international press re- opment of the Nigerian economy 28th place now. Former Gold- ports about the country. President Good- without a concomitant improve- man economist Jim O’Neill in- luck Jonathan, who holds a doctorate ment in the overall welfare of Nige- cludes Nigeria in a select group in zoology from the University of Port rian citizens. Disregard to these 3Cs of “MINTs” along with Mexico, Harcourt, took office in May 2010, seek- has resulted in rising unemploy- Indonesia, and Turkey—four ing to implement conservative economic ment, inequality and poverty.” large emerging economies that all have “very favorable demo- Since then, Nigeria has priva- graphics for at least the next 20 tized much of the power sector years, and their economic pros- (see the infographic on the follow- pects are interesting,” O’Neill ing pages), and essential invest- wrote. ments are starting to flow. Recent pension reforms, in addition to a “I am especially excited about gradual easing of some old-age pov- Nigeria because of it being nearly erty, may help steer local funds into 20 percent of Africa’s popula- infrastructure. Inflation is under tion, and if they find success it will be re- control, bureaucracy is improving, ally important for the African continent,” and welfare reforms are promised. O’Neill told Grant Thornton, a consul- Small steps, perhaps, but in the right di- tancy, in March. “I also think they have rection. a generation of leaders that are trying to Most of the reforms have so far benefit- behave differently from the past in terms ed the more developed and peaceful south of stronger and better governance. In a of the country, doing little to help the un- broader context, I am among those that derdeveloped northern region, where vio- believe this could be sub-Saharan Africa’s lence from Boko Haram feeds on poverty ‘moment,’ so to speak, as with the benefits and systemic corruption. of modern technology, the better gover- nance, and with improving infrastructure, The Lessons of Ebola it looks quite promising.” Often criticized for its corruption, social problems, and inefficiency, Nigeria showed the world a dramatically different face dur- NIGERIA

Special Advertising Supplement ing its recent brush with Ebola. Rapid re- some early mistakes and initial hesitation, Q&A sponse, well-organized public officials, dedi- the government rapidly adapted an emer- cated health workers, and good preparations gency-operations center that had been es- H.E. Chinedu helped prevent the virus escaping into the tablished earlier with foreign aid to fight Ositadinma densely packed shantytowns of Lagos, one of polio. This provided unified command and Nebo the world’s largest metropolitan areas with a enabled contact tracing. The widespread Minister of Power population of 21 million. mobile phone network was crucial, as was the existing Lagos hospital and ambulance How does power privatization fit into the “Nigeria is now free of Ebola,” Rui Gama system, which is much better than in many Transformation Agenda? Vaz of the World Health Organization told other parts of the country, and indeed most Nigeria has conducted the largest privatization of reporters in Abuja, the capital. “This is a of sub-Saharan Africa. Some 1,800 health public utilities in Africa—a model for other countries. spectacular success story.” Vaz was speaking workers were quickly trained and 900 pos- But it wasn’t just the government handing over the in late October, just three months after Pat- sible contacts were traced and monitored in power sector; privatization was the realization that rick Sawyer, a Liberian-American, landed in more than 18,000 visits. government alone could not continue to run the power Lagos with symptoms of fever, diarrhea, and sector as a matter of social welfare. Government did vomiting. “Nigeria acted quickly and early and on not have the funds, and it needed to give Nigerians the a large scale,” John Vertefeuille, an epide- level and quality of power supply that they clamor for. Eight deaths later, Nigeria is celebrating miologist with the U.S. Centers for Disease the dedication of Dr. Stella Ameyo Adade- Control and Prevention who spent time in What motivates you, as Nigeria’s minister of power? voh, who—according to reports—refused to the country, told reporters. “Tracing was Power is the key to unlocking Nigeria’s potential, in believe Sawyer’s denial of any exposure to central to the success of the response.” industry, manufacturing, and SMEs [small and medium Ebola, physically restrained him in his hos- enterprises]. Without power, none of this is possible. pital bed, and resisted official pressure to Critics noted that the Ebola response In the past, some companies even left Nigeria because discharge him. This dedication cost Adade- contrasted sharply with the government’s le- of inadequate power supplies. I see myself in a historic voh her life. thargic and so-far-ineffective handling of the position to help address that huge vacuum. The April kidnapping of more than 200 school- government is committed to taking electricity to the Nigeria was perhaps lucky that Sawyer girls by the Boko Haram militant group. most distant rural populations. arrived with visible symptoms. But after Technology Peter Jack is nothing if not ambitious: areas. Jack, who studied information have mobile phones that use the for Growth he sees Nigeria’s ICT sector possibly technology policy at Seoul National older GSM-2G technology and cannot rivaling oil and gas as a generator University in South Korea, sees that access the Internet. Now the challenge Peter Jack of gross domestic product. Jack, a Asian nation as a potential role model: is to extend networks further into Director General, NITDA postgraduate chemical engineer with “In 1997, after the Asian financial crisis, poorly served rural areas and upgrade an MBA from the University of Lagos, South Korea adopted an ICT-focused the whole system to 3G or even 4G NIGERIA’S NATIONAL INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY was recently appointed director- economic development strategy and technology to allow for services such as DEVELOPMENT AGENCY (NITDA) LIES AT THE general of NITDA with a mandate to get successfully positioned ICT as a 25 mobile banking. VERY HEART OF THE COUNTRY’S GROWTH things moving. percent contributor to GDP.” STRATEGY. DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY MEANS BETTER Nigeria recently announced that it JOBS AND HIGHER SALARIES; IT ALSO MEANS “We plan to position NITDA as a prime Omobola Johnson, Nigeria’s minister of would license seven infrastructure LEAPFROGGING MANY TRADITIONAL STAGES OF catalyst for transformation,” Jack communication technology, is equally companies to expand broadband DEVELOPMENT WITH A MIX OF IMPORTED AND said in an interview. “We are going to optimistic. More people in Nigeria networks and adopt an open-access HOMEGROWN PROGRAMS AND PLATFORMS. engage with all sectors; our principal have mobile phones than have a bank policy whereby carriers will be required SOME US$25 BILLION OF LOCAL AND FOREIGN strategy is stakeholder partnerships. account, she points out, meaning that to lease network space to competitors. INVESTMENT COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT We are going to position ICT as a the potential for going straight to The government’s National Broadband FIVE TO TEN YEARS TO BUILD OUT INFORMATION credible economic sector, possibly mobile financial services is huge. Plan 2013–2018 quotes studies showing AND COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY (ICT) surpassing oil and gas in the future. that “every 10 percent increase in INFRASTRUCTURE. And we plan to use ICT to catalyze Currently about 28 percent of Nigerians broadband penetration in developing growth in other sectors, to be an have some Internet access, but countries results in a commensurate enabler in sectors such as oil and gas, broadband penetration, counting increase of 1.3 percent in GDP.” 3G agriculture, industry, housing, and mobile and fixed, is just over 6 percent. coverage is due to reach 80 percent of so on.” ICT currently generates an However, around 75 percent of people urban areas by 2018, with a minimum estimated 9 percent of Nigerian GDP. speed of 1.5 Mbit/second. Subscribers would multiply fivefold, to around 30 Created in 2001, NITDA is charged percent of the national population. with promoting ICT development by drawing up standards, fomenting Jack said he hopes to create 600,000 e-government, fostering ICT training, ICT-related entrepreneurs and two and sponsoring infrastructure million jobs during his four-year term development, particularly in rural at NITDA. For more information, please visit us at: www.peninsula-press.com | www.io-peninsula-press.com NIGERIA

NIGERIAN POWER SECTOR FINANCING GENERATION COMPANIES NATIONAL INTEGRATED POWER PROJECTS US$7bn/5yrs 600 MW Shiroro Hydro Power Plc (Hydro) Conceived in 2004 as a fast-track publicly funded initiative to add 942 MW Ughelli Power (Thermal) significant new generating capacity to Nigeria’s electricity supply President Obama’s Power Africa initiative aims to 987 MW Afam Power Plc (Thermal) system, along with the electricity transmission and distribution doube the number of Africans who have 1,020 MW Sapele Power Plant (Thermal) and natural gas supply infrastructure that is required to deliver the access to electricity 1,320 MW Egbin Power Plc (Thermal) additional capacity to consumers throughout the country.* 1,330 MW Kainji/Jebba Hydro Electric Plc (Hydro) US$4.68 bn 1,131 MW Alaoji Generation Company Nigeria Ltd. 508 MW Benin Generation Company Ltd. Total investment portfolio of Nigerian banks in the power sector (Dec. 2013) 634 MW Calabar Generation Company Ltd. US$5bn p.a. 381 MW Egbema Generation Company Ltd. Yearly funding needs for power sector over the next 254 MW Gbarain Generation Company Ltd. five years 506 MW Geregu Generation Company Ltd. 508 MW Ogorode Generation Company Ltd. US$700 m 754 MW Olorunsogo Generation Company Ltd. UBA line of credit for acquisition of power assets in the 265 MW Omoku Generation Company Ltd. recently privatized power sector 513 MW Omotosho Generation Company Ltd. US$550 m * “A Guide to the Nigerian Power Sector”, KPMG, December 2013 Pending completion Amount he federal government provided to its sovereign wealth fund to help guarantee power INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCERS NATIONAL INTEGRATED POWER PROJECTS trading and spur investments to build the country’s These are power plants owned and managed by the private sector. • Kaduna Electricity Distribution Company Plc electricity market Note: There were Independent Power Producers (IPPs) present in • Abuja Electricity Distribution Plc Nigeria prior to the privatization process.* • Jos Electricity Distribution Plc *70 licenses issued by NERC to IPPs to improve power in the country. • Kano Electricity Distribution Company Plc • Yola Electricity Distribution Plc 642 MW Shell - Afam VI • Enugu Electricity Distribution Plc 480 MW Agip - Okpai • Benin Electricity Distribution Company 270 MW AES Barges • Eko Electricity Distribution Company Plc • Ikeja Electricity Distribution Company Plc • Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company Plc • Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution Company Plc The National Council on Enactment of the Electricity Power US$1 bn US$1.3 bn Privatization (NCP) constitutes Sector Reform Act (EPSRA) provides the Electricity Power Sector legal backing for the power sector to be invested by the Azura Power Group in the Deal with the Chinese government that involves Implementation Committee reform program. EPSRA calls for 450 MW Edo-Azura Independent Power Plant construction of a hydroelectric plant in Zungeru (Niger (EPIC) to undertake a unbundling the national power project to increase national output State) and that is expected to add 700 MW to the comprehensive study and utility company into 18 successor national grid review of the entire industry to companies: 6 generation companies; OCTOBER 2005 prepare grounds for liberalizing 11 distribution companies (discos) JULY 2010 the power sector to attract covering all 36 states; and one Inauguration of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory private investment and ensure national power transmission Commission (NERC). Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc (NBET) incorporated competition in the market. company (TCN), all under the Mandated to conduct the monitoring and regulation of the in line with the “Roadmap to Power Sector Reform” and umbrella of the Power Holding electricity industry, issue licenses to market participants, the requirements of the Electric Power Sector Reform Act Company of Nigeria (PHCN). and ensure compliance with market rules and operating (EPSRA). guidelines. AUGUST 2010 NOVEMBER 2005 President Goodluck Jonathan launches the Power Sector Incorporation of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) Roadmap. Unbundling of PHCN companies commences. as a product of the defunct National Electric Power Authority (NEPA). CPCS Transcom Limited (Ottawa) hired by the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) to advise on privatization of the 11 distribution companies and 6 generation companies. 1999 2005 2010 POWER GENERATION CAPACITY + Nigeria 4,000 MW +160m 6,976 MW US$ 4bn + South 44,000 MW total installed generation capacity, with expectation est. 2014 Africa 51m of expansion from the National Integrated Power US$ 6bn Projects (NIPPs) ELECTRICITY by 2016 United 1,000,000 MW MARKET States 315m 20,000 MW NIGERIA and population (millions) estimated generation capacity by 2018 Special Advertising Supplement

An Opportunity for Growth INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS President Goodluck Jonathan hands over shares certificates and This is the auspicious time to invest licenses to new owners in September of 2013 in power; the Nigerian Government US$2.9 trn is poised to buy all power generated, through its agency, the Nigeria Bulk required for infrastructure development efforts through over Electricity Trader (NBET), also the next 30 years in Nigeria (2014-2045) with World Bank backing through the Partial Risk Guarantee (PRG). US$900 bn All power generated will be paid for 100% when produced. required for the energy sector alone Prof. Chinedu Nebo, Minister of Power US$10 bn SOLAR POWER required for capital expenditure by generation and distribution companies in the next few years to enable the nation to add OPERATION LIGHT UP NIGERIA 5,000 MW US$1.5 bn annual requirement over the next five years to ensure reliability and stability of the transmission grid RENEWABLE ENERGY The project is conducted in partnership with foreign firms such as Philips and Schneider and aims to provide 24-hour solar-powered energy in all parts of the country. SOLAR Average solar insolation 5.25 kWh/m2/day WIND Wind speeds range from 1.4 to 3.0 m/s (coastal and offshore) in the south US$100 m and from 4.0 to 5.1 m/s in the far north pledged by the World Bank for a BIOMASS Government plans sugarcane and cassava plantations for bioethanol production development plan in Nigeria to diversify the country’s reliance on oil GEOTHERMAL Major potential geothermal sites have been identified HYDRO 22% of electrical power supply 13% of exploitable hydropower in use DECEMBER 2010 OCTOBER 2012 SEPTEMBER 30th, 2013 More than US$3 billion The NCP advertises for EOIs from prospective core investors NCP approves 14 preferred bidders for President Goodluck Jonathan formally is generated interested in acquiring controlling stakes in the 11 successor the PHCN’s generation and distribution hands over share certificates and licenses distribution firms created from PHCN companies. to 14 new core owners of PHCN successor through Manitoba Hydro International (MHI) takes companies. the bidding MARCH 2011 charge of TCN in a US$24.7 million contract expected to run for three years, aiming FEBRUARY 2013 Deadline for submission of EOIs; to reorganize TCN into a market-driven 180 applications received, including company that is technically, financially and The privatization agency sends a request for proposal (RFP) to from 72 prequalified bidders. commercially viable. 48 prospective bidders. Afam and Kaduna discos were among the 17 PHCN successor companies advertised for sale in Decem- ber 2010 along with 15 other PHCN successor companies that went through a full competitive tender process, culminating in the submission of technical and financial proposals in July 2012. 2011 2012 2013 PRIVATIZATION TIMELINE 55% 75% 260 trn ft3 of Nigeria’s power generation of total population has access depends on natural gas total reserves of natural gas (note that Nigeria’s gas reserves are triple the nation’s crude oil reserves) to electricity in Nigeria 1st in Africa US$8.5 bn FEDERAL MINISTRY OF POWER in proven gas reserves FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA Gas Master Plan 9th largest www.power.gov.ng The Federal Government has earmarked US$8 billion for execution of the Nigerian Gas Master Plan with specific interest in meeting the country’s gas-to-power demand. in global reserves

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Pictured: INBOX “I found an institution E Is for Egalitarian that was under shock.” P. 18 P. 26 20 22 24 The Forgotten ANTHROPOLOGY OF AN IDEA THE THINGS THEY CARRIED IDEAS Streets P. 28 BIOMIMETICS THE CLIMATE SCIENTIST LORD OF THE FLIES 26 EPIPHANIES CHRISTINE LAGARDE PHOTOGRAPH BY FABIO CUTTICA FOR FP FOREIGN POLICY 17

banana candidate bone united slap happy money fire rocket belly toucan tongue INBOX • PICTURED In 1962, Brazilian educator Paulo the building blocks for language Freire implemented a radical lessons. The pedagogy, which E IS FOR method for teaching people how rejected the normal hierarchies EGALITARIAN to read. Instead of using of the student-teacher textbooks, Freire encouraged his relationship, worked. His pupils ARTWORK BY JONATHAS DE ANDRADE pupils—300 adult sugar-cane were literate within weeks, and cutters—to learn from one the initiative soon became a another by sharing their life federal program. It didn’t last experiences. Freire then used the long, though. When the military students’ working vocabulary as took power in 1964, Freire was 18 NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2014

honey excess knife reason late looting brazil cologne brick wealth sparks lost exiled and his program was money. This new approach, linguistics and the art of methods. By carefully juxtaposing dismantled. however, ultimately denied interpretation in Brazil over the 20 government vintage posters prospective students the agency past five decades. In 2010, de into the work, he not only Among the literacy programs at the heart of Freire’s mission. Andrade worked with a group of introduced unique and, at times, that emerged in its place during illiterate seamstresses to provocative word combinations the junta years was something It is this history that undergirds choose 40 words to be displayed to unpack Brazil’s recent much more controlled: commer- Jonathas de Andrade’s on the prints, co-opting the history—he also provided a cially published language “Educação para Adultos” graphics-based teaching sobering commentary on an posters. Sold at newsstands, the (“Education for Adults”), a series tradition from the military years aspirational pedagogy that had prints displayed popular of 60 educational posters that but imbuing it with Freire’s been forgotten. concepts, such as food and combines the science of 19FOREIGN POLICY

INBOX • ANTHROPOLOGY OF AN IDEA 1505 1506 1969 BY JAKE SCOBEY THAL Leonardo da Vinci writes American biophysicist ILLUSTRATION BY ALEX EBEN MEYER Otto Schmitt uses the Codex on the Flight of term “biomimetics” This year, NASA presented three for the first time, in a designs for its latest prototype Birds, which speculates paper he presents at the 1996 spacesuit, designed to withstand International Biophysics the habitat on Mars. One of the that human air travel 1903 Congress in Boston. No Architect Mick Pearce concepts mimicked creatures could be modeled on stranger to bio-inspired designs the Eastgate that thrive in one of the harshest the mechanics of avian In the first-ever technology, Schmitt had environments here on Earth: the flight. Over the course of successful airplane invented an electrical Centre in Harare, deep sea. The suit replicated the his life, da Vinci produces flight, brothers Orville circuit modeled after the Zimbabwe. Inspired by scaly skin and bioluminescence a number of works and Wilbur Wright’s neural impulse systems self-cooling mounds of certain fish. Although the suit and more than 500 craft stays airborne for of African termites, the eventually lost out to a different sketches dealing with just under a minute of squids in 1934, large office and retail model, it showed that nature might the mechanics of flying in Kitty Hawk, North when he was a doctoral space does not have a offer important keys to unlocking and the nature of air. Carolina. The Wright conventional heating the cosmos. And that’s not all: student. Schmitt’s and cooling system; Nature might also help build a better brothers’ model, partic- word catches on and, rather, it uses chimneys industrial future back home. Human that naturally draw in ularly the wings’ control five years later, is cool air to maintain a adopted into Webster’s temperate environment. mechanism, is inspired According to Pearce, dictionary. the ventilation system 1851 by the way birds use air currents to gain lift 1986 costs one-tenth of In London, landscape and facilitate changes that in a comparable, designer Joseph of direction. Just over NASA and 3M test a air-conditioned building, Paxton builds the technology that resem- and it uses 35 percent a decade later, the bles the grooves found 990,000-square-foot world’s first commercial less energy. Crystal Palace for passenger flight travels on shark skin. Small indentations called rib- 1997 the Great Exhibition, from St. Petersburg, lets are attached to the the first international Florida, to Tampa. outer shell of an aircraft Scientist and writer expo of manufactured with adhesive to reduce Janine Benyus publishes drag in the air and make products. The palace’s jets more aerodynamic. the book Biomimicry: Innovation Inspired by unique architecture, 1955 Today, Lufthansa is Nature. Benyus, now which uses crisscrossed developing technology considered the field’s iron girders to support Swiss engineer George to “paint” these grooves nearly 300,000 panes de Mestral patents directly onto commercial chief proselytizer, frames the concept of of glass over a vast, Velcro. His idea, however, aircraft exteriors to biomimetics around open space, is inspired was hatched years lower fuel consumption by the leaf of a water earlier when, during the urgent goal of lily: Interconnecting ribs a hunting trip in the by about 1 percent. ending environmental help the plant support Alps, his dog became (It may not sound like destruction. “We’re able substantial weight in much, but the savings to apply fresh thinking covered in burs. Inspired could yield significant to traditional manufac- water. by the prickly seeds’ environmental benefits. turing to undo the toxic Annually, the United and energy-intensive tiny hooks, de Mestral States alone consumes mistakes of the past,” about 20 billion gallons Benyus tells National envisioned a product: Geographic years later. of aviation fuel.) “I wish we had been at two pieces of fabric, the design table at the Industrial Revolution.” one with hooks, the other with loops. Velcro becomes widely known in the 1960s, when NASA uses it in space shuttles to prevent food, equipment, and other items from floating 20 NOVEMBER/DECEMBaEwR ay in zero gravity.

innovation, some thinking goes, 2006 2010 2012 JANUARY 2014 should take cues from naturally occurring processes, because after Richard Bonser, then Janine Benyus co- Boston College Harvard scientists and billions of years of evolution, nature of the University of founds Biomimicry 3.8. undergraduates engineers publish a has determined what is efficient, Reading’s Centre for The firm, whose name is Deckard Sorensen and paper in Nature intro- effective, and enduring. This isn’t Biomimetics, publishes a reference to 3.8 billion Miguel Galvez, founders ducing a new, metal- a novel idea. From airplanes to a study in the Journal of of NBD Nanotechnol- free battery that relies Velcro, inventors have long turned Bionic Engineering that years of natural life, ogies, produce a proof on naturally abundant, to flora and fauna for inspiration assesses the growth of consults for, trains, and of concept for a water and instruction. But now more than biomimetic innovation. educates companies bottle inspired by the carbon-based molecules ever, biomimetics is generating Bonser finds that be- on how to incorporate Namib Desert beetle. called quinones— product designs—not to mention tween 1985 and 2005, bio-inspired innovation Like the insect, which similar to those that hundreds of millions of dollars in the number of patents into their practices. To- draws water from air by capital investment—that are not worldwide containing the day, it has worked with collecting condensa- store energy in animals just pioneering, but also potentially word “biomimetic” or more than 250 clients, tion on microscopic and plants. Significantly sustainable. “bio-inspired” increased including Shell, Boeing, bumps on its back, the cheaper than the metals by a factor of 93. bottle would harvest normally used in batteries, (The growth factor for and General Electric. air moisture; the team this technology, the non-biomimetic patents estimates the device researchers note, could 2011 could store up to 3 liters improve the efficacy was 2.7.) of drinking water every of renewable energy in Lynn Reaser, chief hour. “If we’re creating 2008 economist at Point [several] liters per day large grid systems. in a cost-effective Engineer and entrepre- Loma Nazarene manner,” Galvez tells JULY 2014 neur Hansjörg Wyss University’s Fermanian the BBC, “you can get Business and Economic this to a community of India’s Lavasa Corp. files pledges $125 million to Institute in San Diego, people in sub-Saharan for an initial public Harvard University—at Africa and other dry offering, its second the time, the largest establishes the Da regions of the world.” single endowment in Vinci Index. Measuring attempt in four years, to the university’s history— raise 7.5 billion rupees the frequency of (over $100 million) to to create the Wyss biomimetics terms used develop the country’s Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering. in scientific journals, first city based on According to a press re- patents, and grants, the biomimetic principles. lease, the institute “will index aims to quantify The company has strive to uncover the the expansion of worked closely with engineering principles bio-inspired research biologists to develop the that govern living things, city’s master plan, which and use this knowledge and innovation. incorporates reforesta- to develop technology According to a report on tion efforts, rainwater solutions for the most biomimetics, the field is harvesting, and green pressing health-care set to explode: By 2025, construction practices. biomimicry could repre- If realized, the city could and environmental sent $300 billion of U.S. be home to as many as issues facing humanity.” GDP annually, 1.6 million 300,000 people. jobs, and $50 billion in terms of resources conserved. 21FOREIGN POLICY

INBOX • THE THINGS THEY CARRIED Malå Geoscience Starrett 5-meter ground-penetrating radar measuring tape The box with the phone cord has During an expedition led by a recording device, and the other Australia in 2003, we wanted to mount a piece of equipment— box has the connection to the our thermal radiometer—on the laptop. That’s a small one for investigating the upper 5 to 10 railing of the ship to measure meters of snow layering in great the skin and air temperature on detail. The layers give a historical picture of what’s happened sea ice, but we didn’t have a there, like the rings of a tree. tape measure. We got this one in Hobart, Tasmania. THE CLIMATE Garmin hand-held GPS and Panasonic Toughbook SCIENTIST Kestrel 4000 pocket weather meter: This interfaces with the INTERVIEW BY THOMAS STACKPOLE data-recording device for the That’s handy because if you’re radar and the camera, chronicling PHOTOGRAPHS BY BRENDEN NEVILLE in a small camp, the pilots ferry what we see and measure. We in teams and supplies, and they also use it to watch movies. A Talk about polar opposites: While Arctic sea ice continues to melt, want to hear what the weather Mighty Wind was a favorite one down in the Antarctic, ice is actually accumulating—and at record year. No polar movies. Most of levels. Capping off an anomalously high three-year trend, is like—wind speed and September 2014 saw 7.76 million square miles covered in ice; direction—before they land. them are pretty bad. that’s more than 500,000 square miles above the average documented between 1981 and 2010. Glaciologist Ted Scambos and his colleagues are trying to figure out what, exactly, is happening. A senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, a part of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado, Boulder, Scambos has been tramping around the Antarctic since the 1990s. His trips typically run “eight weeks, door to door,” he says, which means two to three weeks on the ice collecting samples and deploying ground-penetrating radar and other technologies to determine how the ice is changing. He and his crew work in temperatures that dip to minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit, but after a few days in the cold, he says, “you can enjoy a beer outside of your tent on a sunny day, no problem.” Despite this year’s good news about ice, Scambos notes that people shouldn’t assume the Antarctic is in great shape. In 2002, a Rhode Island-sized piece of the Larsen B ice shelf—a 720-foot- thick plate on the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula— disintegrated when ponds of meltwater caused a sudden breakup within five weeks. Now more ice is expected to disappear: This year, two studies posited that the collapse of the Amundsen Sea ice sheet in the western Antarctic appears inevitable—and that it might raise global sea levels by some 4 feet. Scambos says it can be a struggle to communicate the urgency of his work, which is highly detailed and done in a faraway, isolated place. And yet, he adds, minds are slowly changing. “People do think, ‘You know, 50 years from now, we won’t have any water left for California,’ or ‘50 years from now there will be no forest.’ There’s no technological solution other than conservation and careful planning.” Scambos’s next big trip likely will be to a ridge on the East Antarctic Plateau, thought to be the coldest place on Earth. FOREIGN POLICY recently caught up with Scambos to learn what is required to live and work at the bottom of the world. 22 NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2014

Life-Link avalanche shovel Iridium satellite phone and Grivel ice ax Goal Zero solar panels and climbing rope If you get into trouble, you can dig out your snowmobile with That’s become essential This is the field mountaineering this. Snow in Antarctica isn’t like equipment. Scientists used to gear we carry in a crevassed what you see at a ski resort. It’s be issued big shortwave radios area. We try not to work more like Styrofoam that you that required big batteries and in places where falling into antennas. We use the solar crevasses is a danger, but can chop into blocks. panels to charge the satellite sometimes you can’t avoid it. phone out on multiday treks. We’ve been trained to rescue somebody, if we had to, but we always have a field mountaineer that works with us to be safe. Grabber hand warmers Canada Goose Bumble Bee expedition parka sardines, Lake We’d put two or three hand warmers into large mitts called We call this “Big Red.” It was Champlain “bear paws.” They’re from the designed specially for working Chocolates dark Cold War, and they’re so big you almost can’t do anything with at McMurdo Station in chocolate, Antarctica, but it’s actually a bit Nature Valley them—they’re like boxing of overkill for most of the work granola bar gloves. The way you work at Good pocket food is -30 is you pull out your hands we do. When you’re out important. It’s and work for maybe three or burying equipment and taking amazing how four minutes on some fine instrument; then your fingers samples, you can heat up many more get so cold that you really can’t quickly—and you really don’t calories you want to sweat. If you do, you consume in the do what you want to do can actually get icicles on the cold, but I almost anymore. always lose weight inside of your clothes. in Antarctica. I never eat sardines while in the U.S., but in Antarctica I really like them. 23FOREIGN POLICY

INBOX • IDEAS Lord of the Flies Swedish Fish BY ALICIA P.Q. WITTMEYER » Give a man a fish, and you’ll feed him for a day. Teach ILLUSTRATIONS BY SERGIO MEMBRILLAS a man to fish, and you’ll feed him for a lifetime. Tell him he has more fish than his neighbors—and apparently I n 1969, entomologist T.A.M. Nash he’ll vote conservative. wrote in Africa’s Bane: The Tsetse Fly that the unpleasant little insect, So says a new study by three Swedish-based its nasty bite, and the sleeping sickness researchers, who found that when it comes to opinions it carries had fundamentally shaped on the redistribution of wealth, a little self-awareness agriculture across a wide swath of goes a long way. Africa. “It seems reasonable to suppose that for hundreds of years, the tsetse The researchers conducted a survey among Swedes dictated that the economy of the African that first looked at whether respondents had a good should be based on the hoe and the grasp of where they fell on the spectrum of their head-load,” Nash noted. country’s income distribution. They did not: When asked to estimate the percentage of their compatriots who earned a yearly income below their own, 74 percent of respondents were off by more than 10 percentage points. The vast majority (92 percent) of those who guessed wrongly underestimated their own positions— meaning, they thought they were poorer than their compatriots. All those surveyed were also asked several questions meant to assess their political leanings. Months later, the researchers returned to their subjects and, based on random selection, clued half of them in to their true positions on the Swedish economic ladder—which in most cases was higher than they had originally thought. The subjects were then queried again about their politics: Among other questions, they were asked what level of wealth redistribution they would prefer, which political party they supported, and what changes they would make to Sweden’s income tax system. People who learned they were richer than they had assumed, researchers found, were more likely to demand lower levels of wealth redistribution than those who were not informed about their true level of relative wealth. They were also more likely to express support for the Sweden Democrats, the country’s far-right party. (The effect was much stronger, however, for those who had initially expressed some right-wing leanings in the first round of the survey.) Why different countries have different predilections when it comes to wealth redistribution remains a puzzle for political scientists. Some experts have suggested that the United States, for instance, prefers lower levels of redistribution relative to other developed countries in part because many Americans have a skewed sense of how well off they actually are. Now evidence suggests that the famous Nordic socialism may be less about adhering to the Law of Jante—that is, a mentality that emphasizes the collective—and more about a big misunderstanding. 24 NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2014

Tsetse flies, in other region’s climate is to the words, had created troublesome fly, based on environments ill-suited to temperature and the domestication of humidity. animals, such as cattle Alsan found that and horses, that could important societal traits have made large-scale could be explained, in farming possible. part, by the presence or Turns out, Nash was absence of the tsetse fly. A onto something—but it lack of agricultural may have been an even development brought on GIRL POWER MEANS BOY POWER bigger phenomenon than by the fly, for instance, » Women’s empowerment is good for, among many he imagined. Well beyond meant a population could other things, economic development, global health, agriculture, the tsetse fly never grow dense enough and the advancement of human rights. Now research shows that it’s also good for medal counts. may have left an indelible for centralized govern- A study in the Journal of Experimental Social mark on numerous ment. Meanwhile, a lack Psychology, due out in early 2015, looks at the connection between gender equality and how well a aspects of life in parts of of domesticated animals country’s athletes—both male and female—have fared in the Olympics. The study, which looked at results Africa. to work equipment meant from both the Summer 2012 and Winter 2014 games, found that the better a country scored on In a forthcoming that slavery remained a metrics of equality between the sexes as measured by the World Economic Forum (across the realms of January 2015 relevant economics, politics, health, and education), the more medals it accumulated. (The authors controlled for study in the Alsan found institution. factors like gross national product and population size.) Equality in education was an especially good American that important Does the predictor of performance by a country’s athletes. Economic societal traits tsetse fly Interestingly, greater gender parity at home not Review, could be determine only seemed to provide female athletes with a boost, Marcella long-term but it was also linked with male performance. Alsan, explained, in destiny? Not Although the researchers did not examine why, assistant part, by the necessarily. precisely, this was the case, lead author Jennifer professor of presence or Consider Berdahl of the University of British Columbia medicine at absence of the Nigeria, which speculates that strict gender roles might hinder some Stanford tsetse fly. A lack sits in the talented male athletes from pursuing their dreams. University, of agricultural heart of the For example, men who are considered too feminine by identified a development fly-friendly societal standards may leave their sports early. handful of brought on zone but has The results echo those of another study, released in April 2014, which looked at Summer Olympics societal by the fly, for nonetheless between 1996 and 2012. It found that athletes of both sexes had a better chance of medaling if they characteris- instance, meant grown into were from a more gender-equal country. tics from the a population Africa’s pre-colonial largest The authors of the new study say their findings era that seem could never grow economy. By belie the idea that measures such as Title IX, which to have played dense enough contrast, the has enhanced resources for U.S. women’s sports, a pivotal role for centralized ancient city of creates gains for female athletes at the expense in predicting government. Great of male success in the long term. Rather, such measures can help build a society that, the how well Zimbabwe, researchers note, “allows members of both genders to realize their true potential.” various African societies the capital of a once- 25FOREIGN POLICY have fared economically, powerful civilization that up to the present. These nurtured agriculture and traits include the degree trade, has been relegated of political centralization to the history books, of a government—that is, despite its location on a whether a central tsetse-free highland, while authority could marshal present-day Zimbabwe is taxes and provide public one of the world’s most goods—and whether there dysfunctional states. Still, was indigenous slavery. Alsan’s research gives She then compared those the tsetse its due: For its traits to what she calls the size, the study emphasizes, “tsetse suitability index,” the fly was—and might or a scoring system that still be—a surprisingly gauges how hospitable a mighty force.

INBOX • EPIPHANIES When I arrived on July 4, Economic exclusion is a major 2011, I found an institution risk. When you know that more that was under shock. The than 800 million women precipitated departure of the around the world are held back previous managing director had for all sorts of religious, occurred under circumstances economic, cultural reasons, that put the institution on the that’s an issue. When you see front page of pretty much every the number of young people, newspaper around the world. With about 75 million of them, held staff that was discouraged and a back again because of high bit at a loss as to where the unemployment in many countries compass was going to be. My first of the world, including in all the priority was, then, to try to bring Middle East and North African people together. countries, as well as in some of the European countries, those are I think the fund is and will be as really key issues. relevant as ever, if not more. The decision to downsize the fund The risks brought about by in 2006-2007 was very climate change are a major misguided. There are ebbs and concern. It often goes unnoticed— flows. We have seen moments of unless people find out that 12 of economic euphoria, the last 13 biggest during which climatic disasters Christine Lagarde members suddenly have occurred in question the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund America is still the last 10 years INTERVIEW BY DAVID ROTHKOPF | ILLUSTRATION BY ROBERT BALL relevance and the largest or they figure out When Christine Lagarde took over the International necessity of the economy in the that the actual Monetary Fund in 2011, the bank was in crisis. Its institution. Then world and the rise of temperature previous chief, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, had resigned comes the will definitely amid allegations of sexual assault. But restoring the IMF’s profile wasn’t Lagarde’s biggest challenge at the time. [economic] crisis, biggest player, exceed the 2 That honor went to the eurozone. Lagarde buoyed and everybody yet it doesn’t percent threshold debt-distressed European countries, helping to negoti- struggles to urgently deliver on its that players had ate a bailout deal for Greece and raising more than $400 increase their set for themselves billion for a global rescue plan. Credited with helping to save Europe’s economy, Lagarde is now leveraging the resources. At the end international five years ago. We bank’s resources in other ways. This year, the IMF pledged of the day, who is commitment to have a group of $17 billion to Ukraine, and in September it committed available in a very multilateralism. countries here that $130 million in emergency financing to West African short period of time are fragile states. countries embattled by the Ebola epidemic. “If more is needed,” Lagarde said at an October news conference, to put money on the They will be “it will be there.” table? Who is there devastated by those FOREIGN POLICY spoke with Lagarde in Washington, D.C., prior to presenting her with the magazine’s annual to lend credibility to consequences. Diplomat of the Year award in late October. Lagarde discussed risks to financial stability, the IMF’s current reforms that a country is prepared international role and reputation, and her frustrations with lawmakers in the world’s largest economy. to undertake when it’s in trouble? Congress and the executive Who is there to provide technical branch are at odds with each assistance of a high caliber? other on a number of issues. Bringing together donors and One of those is the IMF’s quota countries in need, it’s the IMF. and governance reforms, which were agreed upon by the G-20 in On Ukraine, everybody went, 2010 but have not yet been “Oh, we need to help,” but then ratified by the U.S. Congress. It’s everybody scratched their a sad reflection of a real heads as to how they were dichotomy between the leadership going to bring together that should be exercised by the financial packages. We were the United States of America, which institution that put $17 billion on still holds the international the table and negotiated and currency of reserve. It is still eventually approved a program of the largest economy in the reforms that Ukraine has to go world and the biggest player, through if it wants to restore yet it doesn’t deliver on its economic stability and eradicate international commitment corruption. to multilateralism. 26 NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2014

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INBOX • DISPATCH Residents walk in Puente Nayero’s “humanitarian zone” in Buenaventura. The Forgotten Streets While ongoing peace talks may finally put an end to Colombia’s guerrilla fighting, it remains to be seen what will happen to Buenaventura, the urban monster the war created. By Scott C. Johnson Photographs by Fabio Cuttica BUENAVENTURA, COLOMBIA neighborhood of Buenaventura, a threatened to call the police. sprawling, rain-soaked port city on “I shot him with a 9 millimeter,” he B One day in the middle of Colombia’s Pacific coast. The butcher’s August, a gaunt 20-year- offense was simple enough, Jeilin said, “four times, to be sure he was dead.” old who goes by the name explained: He refused to pay the two Jeilin and I met in a hotel room not far of Jeilin approached a months’ worth of extortion money, about middle-aged man and shot him several 400,000 pesos (or roughly $200), to the from his home turf, a quadrant of streets in times in the chest with a pistol, killing gangs who control the city’s streets. a waterfront neighborhood called Santa him. The victim was a carnicero, a What’s more, Jeilin said, the butcher had Monica, where rickety wooden shacks on butcher, who worked in the San Pedro stilts jut out precariously over the brackish water of the bay. Wearing a black wool 28 NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2014

beanie, a T-shirt, blue jeans, and a pair of Andes Mountains, the city is a signature of Unless Santos’s government can deliver, quickly, on promises to tend to green Nike sandals, Jeilin was unassum- government indifference the consequences wrought by years of neglect, Buenaventura is only likely to ing, but he explained that he was a and continues to lack the necessary become more violent, with or without a national peace agreement. And that primero—a kind of block leader for his infrastructure that could connect could be disastrous for Colombia’s long-term vision for its future. gang, known as the Gaitanistas. Along with Buenaventura with the rest of the country. MORE THAN 220,000 PEOPLE HAVE DIED IN the Urabeños and La Empresa, Jeilin’s In 2012, Colombia joined the Pacific Colombia’s war, thousands more have been wounded, and some 6 million have gang is one of three main armed groups Alliance, a trading bloc that includes been internally displaced. All told, around 6.7 million people are considered that control large parts of Buenaventura’s Mexico, Peru, and Chile, whose principle victims of the conflict. The government and the FARC first tried in 1984 to engage waterfront through a combination of aim is to aggressively pursue economic in peace talks and have continued to try, in vain, ever since. That year, the extortion, murder, kidnappings, and ties with Asia, in particular China. But Colombian government promised widespread changes, including agrarian threats. For now, the Gaitanistas are the when government officials presented reform, increased political participation, and a reconciliation process. But when weakest of the gangs, but Jeilin said that Buenaventura as a location for a Pacific these reforms failed to materialize and the commission that the government had his bosses have ordered him to keep Alliance summit the following year—a established turned out to be ineffectual, the talks quickly broke down, and the fighting until the group controls the city Pacific gateway to South America, the city FARC ramped up its campaign of attacks and ambushes. completely. “That’s the mission we have,” had the region’s largest port and could Within a few years, the conflict became he explained, “to keep our territory and to establish Colombia as a key player in the even more volatile. Landowners and small-business owners, outraged by the expand it.” Was he ever afraid? He shook Pacific Alliance, the thinking went—the continued campaign of kidnappings and extortion, began backing right-wing his head: “I’m not scared. idea was shot down because paramilitary groups in Buenaventura, often with the tacit knowledge of the When it’s time to die, it’s the city was far too Colombian National Army and govern- ment. The most prominent of these time to die.” dangerous. The summit was paramilitary groups, the United Self- Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), Buenaventura is often ultimately held hundreds of employed many of the same tactics of the FARC—assassinations, kidnappings, and described as Colombia’s miles away on the Caribbean, massacres, often of civilians—in their bid to beat back the rebels. By this point, most violent city. Its serving as a wake-up call for however, the FARC was actively engaged in large-scale drug trafficking to help homicide rate is 56 percent BOGOTA those intent on moving the fund its operations, increasing the nebulous ties among organized crime, higher than the national BUENAVENTURA country into the next terror, and economic survival. average, and nine times that century. Since then, In 2003, Colombia, under then- of New York City. An President Juan Manuel President Álvaro Uribe, undertook a massive campaign to “demobilize” some expansive port system has Santos has worked with city 32,000 paramilitary fighters who had joined the war, often at the behest of turned the city into the officials to improve small-business owners who were more vulnerable to extortion campaigns by the gateway for roughly 60 Buenaventura’s image by FARC. As part of the campaign, the government also signed a peace deal with percent of Colombia’s COLOMBIA developing an aggressive the AUC and offered fighters reduced prison sentences in exchange for laying imports and exports, but plan to promote tourism down their arms. But the government didn’t provide job training or education very little of the profits have trickled down and downtown development that includes to residents. In 2013, some 15 million tons a multimillion-dollar waterfront espla- of legal goods, along with untold quanti- nade and luxury hotels. But the state of ties of illicit drugs and weapons, passed affairs in this city have made such an through Buenaventura. The mix of about-face nearly impossible. high-end development prospects, a Colombia faces serious obstacles as it strategic international port with easy struggles to put 50 years of conflict behind access to Asia, Europe, and North America, it, and economic renewal is just part of and the city’s poverty—roughly 80 percent Santos’s plan to emerge intact from the of the population is considered poor—has guerrilla war that has pitted successive helped make Buenaventura a battleground administrations against the Revolutionary for all sorts of competing interests, Armed Forces of Colombia (known by its legitimate and criminal alike. Often called Spanish acronym of FARC). Peace talks, bacrim, for bandas criminales (criminal which began in October 2012 and now bands), Jeilin’s group and others like it continue in Havana, Cuba, could fight each other over drug-trafficking potentially put an end to Latin America’s routes, but also for control of valuable longest-running conflict. But the problem waterfront property, which large compa- is that, while the government is making nies are, in turn, eyeing for high-end progress on negotiations with the FARC, development. there are consequences of the war—seen For decades, the Colombian govern- most extremely in Buenaventura—that ment paid scant attention to the stretch of aren’t likely to be healed by the peace Pacific coastline where Buenaventura sits. process. Years of fighting, combined with With the exception of the port, the state a largely absentee government, have largely abandoned these areas, leaving turned Buenaventura into a kind of feral Buenaventura and its residents—mostly place in which Jeilin and the other Afro-Colombian descendants of slaves— members of the bacrim—descendants of isolated and impoverished. Geographically paramilitary groups that once fought the separated from the rest of Colombia by the FARC—operate with impunity. 29FOREIGN POLICY

INBOX • DISPATCH programs to many of these ex-paramili- For those in leaders had little choice but to organize tary fighters. Consequently, they began Buenaventura, themselves into a neighborhood watch drifting back into drug smuggling and the neighborhood and self-defense coalition to confront the criminality, and, as such, the bacrim was is the new battlefield. tyranny of the gangs. With the help of the born—a network that overwhelmingly police and the Inter-Ecclesiastical consisted of people who had been caught BUT FOR ALL THE OPTIMISM THE PEACE TALKS Commission of Justice and Peace, part of up in the war, on both sides. On the have generated in Cuba—and, to a lesser the World Council of Churches, an NGO streets, the bacrim members applied the extent, Colombia—for the residents of that places volunteers in violent same zeal to their lawless endeavors as Buenaventura, the talks might as well be communities as “witnesses,” they walled they had as soldiers. Some former FARC happening on another planet. When off overnight the entrance to their street members trafficked drugs, for instance, Santos visited the city this past April, he with wooden barriers and declared using the very networks that had helped vowed to develop job-training programs Puente Nayero a violence-free “humani- them fund the war. And Buenaventura, for young people, as well as increased tarian zone”; one of their first acts was to with its open ocean access and general credit lines for small businesses. The tear down the chop house. Today, some lack of rule of law, proved more than FARC responded by exploding a make- 290 families live inside, yet the gangs— fertile ground for the bacrim to prosper. shift bomb at Buenaventura’s central desperate to expand their territory— electrical tower, leaving the city dark for continue to threaten the residents. If there was any hope for ex-combat- days. “Control of Buenaventura means ants to trust the government’s promises, control of the national economy of A humanitarian zone existing on a single that was squashed in 2006, when the Colombia,” said Víctor Vidal, a local street anywhere seems improbable—and it government—which had promised council member and outspoken critic of is. But for all its fragility, the zone does former fighters protection from extradi- government inaction in Buenaventura. provide a necessary sanctuary for a tion during the demobilization process— “And as long as the ships keep coming beleaguered population. Near the began sending some of them north to the and going and the port is working, no one entrance to the humanitarian zone, United States to face drug-trafficking cares about the deaths in these neighbor- residents turned the wall of a house into charges. Supporters of the paramilitaries hoods. No one cares.” a public mural with a hand-painted thought the government had betrayed its charter: #1 We will never use any kind of promise to protect them, while relatives That is to say, for those in Buenaventura, violence; #5 We will protect each other of those whom the paramilitaries had the neighborhood is the new battlefield. inside the humanitarian space; #6 We killed lost hope they would ever learn will take turns guarding the doors. what happened to their loved ones. In March, Human Rights Watch published a damning report documenting Nevertheless, when local children Today, President Santos is so commit- widespread human rights abuses in the argue with each other, they resort to a ted to the peace process that he pegged city, including scores of murders, language they know works. Te voy a picar, his narrow re-election campaign to it, dismemberments, and disappearances. they say: I’m going to cut you up. “It’s and recently he has had to push hard for One of the more disturbing revelations easy to get the paramilitaries out,” said patience and tolerance with a public that was the existence of several casas de 22-year-old Fleiner Angulo. “But it’s hard has grown wary of both the rebels and pique, or chop houses, where gangs to get the violence out of your head.” government rhetoric. The meetings in torture their victims by cutting them to Havana have been plagued by setbacks, pieces—sometimes while the victims are FEW NEIGHBORHOODS IN BUENAVENTURA threats by both sides to walk away, and still alive. They then throw the body parts haven’t been affected by violence, and continued attacks and counterattacks as into the ocean. some have been emptied completely as the FARC and government leaders jockey residents succumb to pressure and flee. for position and leverage. (Other rebel This spring, residents of Puente Nayero, According to Human Rights Watch, some groups are not part of the talks, and the a small sub-neighborhood that juts out 56,000 people were displaced in and government recently announced separate into the bay, found themselves sandwiched around the city from 2010 through 2013, negotiations with the National Liberation between two warring bacrim groups, the more than in any other municipality in Army, or ELN.) Urabeños and La Empresa. At the end of Colombia. Many of these were children one long street was a chop house. “They who became prey for gangs that are But there also have been scenes of were killing people in front of kids; they constantly on the lookout for new hope. In late August, Gen. Javier Flórez, were taking houses,” said resident William recruits. Although there are no official the Colombian military’s second-highest Mina. “The community was scared.” The tallies of how many kids have been officer, met with senior FARC officials in 19-year-old remembers gangsters pulling conscripted, Father Adriel Ruiz, who runs person—the first time a serving general people down the street and into the a parish and community center in a in Colombia has agreed to such an wooden shed. He remembers the screams. particularly rough neighborhood called intimate and public encounter with barrio Lleras, estimates that as many as sworn enemies. One of the FARC’s top Faced with daily death threats and 4,000 children have been swept into the negotiators, Iván Márquez, said the terrorized by the violence, a group of bacrim in recent years. meetings were a chance to talk “warrior to warrior.” The meeting signaled that the Julio César Biojó has seen a generation two sides had opened discussions about of children disappear into this under- the decommissioning of weapons and world in the Palo Seco neighborhood, a had moved one step closer to a final jumble of half-finished wooden huts, agreement. open sewage canals, and rocky, trash- 30 NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2014

strewn dirt lanes. GREAT CHALLENGES A native of Buenaventura, Biojó says OF OUR TIME the bacrim first appeared in his neighbor- hood in 2005 and immediately held a DEMAND A community meeting in a nearby school. They were there to protect the neighbor- GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE hood, they told the residents. Over time, however, the newcomers began recruiting MARIA DE JESUS children and teaching them how to fight—and the children have since Assistant Professor, School of International Service become the lifeblood of the bacrim. NINA YAMANIS In 2008, a group of armed men from La Empresa forced Biojó out of his home at Assistant Professor, School of International Service gunpoint; they wanted to control the neighborhood, and he had refused to HOW DO WE REDUCE SOCIAL AND HEALTH budge from his lot. He only returned in INEQUALITIES LOCALLY AND GLOBALLY? 2012, when control of the neighborhood had passed to the Urabeños and his School of International Service professors Maria De Jesus and Nina former tormentors had been driven out. Yamanis apply community-based research to local and global health The new gang, he explained, wasn’t challenges, training students in health research and promotion in necessarily a safer option, but, for the Washington, DC, and around the world. time being, the men who had threatened Learn how you can join Professors De Jesus and Yamanis and their his family were gone. “We can’t go SIS colleagues in world-class conversations at american.edu/sis. against any of them or else we face assassination,” he said. “So if you want to 31FOREIGN POLICY save your children, you have to find some other way to do it.” That year, he set out to help the community. With some meager govern- ment assistance, he created a safe haven where kids can read and play music. The NGO, called the Junta de Acción Comunal (Community Action Group), is run out of a cement building with bars on the windows. His own children, two boys and a girl, are frequent visitors. It’s a far cry from a high-end day care or anything even resembling one, but it provides kids with a sense that there is at least one place outside their homes where they can feel a modicum of safety and where the bacrim might leave them alone. Jeilin, the primero and assassin for the Gaitanistas, was one of the unlucky ones—a child who fell into the gangs early on. He was 13 years old in 2007, when two men from the Urabeños broke into his home while his family was eating a dinner of chicken and rice and shot both of his parents in the face as he watched. That year, Jeilin’s cousin Longi, himself a gang member, taught Jeilin how to use a machete, then a gun, and finally schooled Jeilin on “technical things,” such as how to dismember people properly. Around that time, Jeilin said, he first participated in a murder. The victim was a woman who had transgressed somehow— it was never clear to Jeilin exactly what her crime was. Led by an older man, Jeilin and the other kids helped hack her to death

INBOX • DISPATCH with machetes. “Then we cut her up and William Mina, at home, helped organize Puente Nayero’s “humanitarian zone.” put her in the ocean, and I went home,” Jeilin said. “I went back to normal.” terrible here, but the police have started across in his docket every day said as to attack back, and that has weakened much about the authorities’ incompetence Jeilin’s gaze is vacant and cold, and he the gangs.” and corruption as they did about the expresses no remorse for his victims, criminal networks operating in the city, he though he did concede that thinking too In early September, Colombian believes. Even with a functioning, ethical much about his parents is difficult. “I feel National Police and U.S. Drug Enforce- police force and a fully staffed prosecutor’s sad for my family, but they already killed ment Administration operatives nabbed office, he said, the violence in Buenaventura them. There’s nothing to think,” he said, two leaders of La Empresa during a raid would still be overwhelming. explaining that what he does now is for in Panama. Édgar and Ever Bustamante them, “and it’s also part of my job.” In were believed to be responsible for The official told me that he had total, Jeilin said, he has killed eight large-scale drug- and money-smuggling reviewed 19 murder cases between July people. Many of them he dismembered operations in Buenaventura. “The police and September, and he pointed behind “finger by finger” afterward. Some of them here are making spectacular progress,” him to three large cardboard boxes filled he burned. Most wound up in the ocean. Correa said. “Criminal activity is going with more pending cases—about 90 in “If I get an order to kill,” he said, “that’s it.” down, and it’s limited to the gangs.” total. Many of the victims were innocent merchants caught up in the violent IN MANY RESPECTS, BUENAVENTURA HAS But many people in Buenaventura politics of extortion, he said. But this already crossed a Rubicon of sorts, from question this claim, maintaining that the caseload doesn’t even take into account being a city where police can be effective police are complicit with the gangsters, a portion of the other types of crimes, to one where a quasi-military occupation actively working with them to keep he said, such as kidnappings and is required just to prevent complete revenues from the drug trade flowing. disappearances, that are also routine anarchy. The violent waterfront neigh- Even the district attorneys responsible for occurrences. borhoods in particular are swarming with bringing criminals to justice express police officers, all of whom are equipped skepticism about the loyalty and diligence “There’s a capture of a gangster every with automatic assault rifles, pistols, and of the police with whom they work. day here, but it doesn’t make a differ- fatigues that make them look much more ence,” he said. “You get captured, and like soldiers than police. Virtually every When I was searching for evidence of there’s always someone to replace you.” corner of these neighborhoods is manned Jeilin’s murderous exploits, a highly placed What the city really needs, he added, is by at least one officer, often two. official at the district attorney’s office massive investment in infrastructure, agreed to speak with me on the condition education, and health. The peace process Colombian officialdom insists that that I not use his name. Rifling through a is a good thing, he said, but until these violence has been decreasing in Bue- stack of blue and tan folders piled on his other, deeper problems are addressed, naventura. In late October, President desk, he pulled file number 02417, which “the violence won’t stop—there’s too Santos visited Buenaventura again and belonged to a butcher who was killed in much misery.” claimed that a security plan called Vamos the San Pedro neighborhood, a warren Seguros (Let’s Go Safely) had led to a 25 of alleys, shacks, and canneries where THE COLOMBIAN STATE HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR percent reduction in crime in Colombia’s fishermen sell their daily catches. so long in Buenaventura, Father Ruiz told 11 biggest cities, including Buenaventura, That sounded like the crime Jeilin had me, that “the people have started living within the first week of implementation. described. in a kind of anarchy.” In that kind of According to the president’s website, environment, the prospect of thousands seven drug-trafficking rings and more The official looked at the file and of trained soldiers, guerrilla fighters, and than a dozen armed-robbery outfits had frowned. “It doesn’t say why he was picked paramilitary thugs wandering around been shut down. up, and that worries me,” he said. There looking for work, or food, or simply a was a killing and an arrest, but the means to survive, is a sobering one. When I visited in September, Col. José paperwork shed no light on whether they Miguel Correa, the commander of the were connected. The stories he came local police force, similarly claimed that progress was already underway in Buenaventura. Sitting back in his chair, he pulled out a data sheet and began ticking off numbers—262 arrests of Urabeños and La Empresa members in 2014, including 26 leaders of both groups; 177 firearms confiscated; 2,732 kilos of drugs impounded—and said the progress was partly a result of increased pressure from Santos’s Let’s Go Safely plan and Bue- naventura’s strategic importance in Colombia’s national narrative. “The geographic location, the peace process, our economic growth—all of these things are very important here,” he said. “It was 32 NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2014

Even with a functioning ON BUENAVENTURA’S WATERFRONT SITS THE The Master of Arts in Global police force and a fully neighborhood of Colón, which, like the Governance program at Florida staffed prosecutor’s others, is little more than an assemblage International University prepares office, the violence in of shanties. Several former FARC rebels students to tackle some of the Buenaventura would occupy one set of houses at the end of a world’s toughest security challenges still be overwhelming. dirt road. Nearby are several known including transnational crime, cyber members of the Urabeños, who in recent security, human rights, surveillance One evening I met with a former years have taken control of the neighbor- and intelligence, religious conflict, paramilitary soldier who had gone hood. Here, in this forgotten corner of the immigration and refugee flows, global through the demobilization program; he city, the guerrilla war seems like a distant terrorism, business risk and more. requested anonymity. Originally from a memory, but the threat of violence to rural area called Pital, he was recruited in everyone remains stark. Pursue a degree that will help you 2001 into the Bloque Calima, a notorious understand, innovate and lead. paramilitary organization. He was Although I understood the toll that uneducated and illiterate, and the violence is taking on Buenaventura’s Master of Arts in Global Governance paramilitary group offered him 700,000 residents, in the first week of my School of International and Public Affairs pesos a month (about $350). That same reporting I hadn’t seen any bloodshed 1101 Brickell Avenue year, in April, he was involved in an myself. That all changed one late Miami, FL 33131 infamous chainsaw massacre along the afternoon, when it was still bright outside banks of a river, which flows down from and the streets of Colón were filled with magg.fiu.edu | 305-348-4113 the mountains toward Buenaventura. A people. I was getting into a car when a few weeks later, the group’s leader forced shot rang into the air. A crowd, screaming School of International and Public Affairs him to kill a friend, apparently for a and crying, ran away from the noise and minor infraction involving a rifle. For toward the water. In their midst, a large 33FOREIGN POLICY some commanders, he realized, “the man held a woman by her hair and weapon was worth more than the man.” dragged her across the street; both of them were shouting. The man carried a Scared and emotionally overwhelmed, pistol and pointed it at the woman’s head. the soldier entered the demobilization program. And though he received modest Moments later, at least four more shots payments from the government, he didn’t rang out. receive any job training or education. Eventually, the money ran out. The street mostly emptied except for a small number of spectators. About 50 He can’t return to his ancestral village feet away from me, lying by the side of a along the river because too many people black Kia sedan, was the woman, a who sympathize with the FARC are still 42-year-old wife and mother of two there, and his affiliation with the named Yolanda del Socorro Guerrero, the paramilitary groups would be a death 16th woman murdered in Buenaventura sentence. So he’s scraping by in Bue- this year. She ran a small business selling naventura as yet another possible recruit panela, or brown cane sugar, and for the gangs who control the city. according to witnesses and police, she had come to Colón to meet a customer. It “I never want to touch another weapon emerged later that she had probably in my life,” he said. “But what I don’t refused to pay the requisite bribe to the know is if the weapons are going to touch local gang, in this case the Urabeños, and me.” In other words, with no prospects for that she was murdered. and no further support from the govern- ment, he may find that his only means of None of the residents told the police survival involve crime. they saw anything; saying too much was dangerous. Meanwhile, Yolanda’s killer “I went in ignorant, without thinking disappeared on the back of a motorcycle, about my life and the future, and my ties trailed by a small car with black tinted to the community are broken,” the windows. Around Yolanda’s head was a ex-paramilitary soldier said. “I just want large pool of blood and, on her back, a the government to help me keep the large smoke burn, indicating that the promise we both signed.” last bullet was fired at short range, when she was already down, the latest assassination of 2014. Scott C. Johnson is the former bureau chief for Newsweek in South Africa, Mexico, and Iraq. His book, The Wolf and the Watchman: A Father, a Son, and the CIA, was longlisted for a National Book Award in 2013.

From 20th century walls to 21st century bridges. From geopolitics to global business. From security to humanitarian aid. From investment to sustainable development. From walled gardens to open source. The world you inherit will require you to be agile across borders of many kinds— EHWZHHQFRXQWULHVEHWZHHQDFDGHPLFÀHOGVEHWZHHQNQRZOHGJHDQGSUDFWLFH EHWZHHQWRSGRZQSROLFLHVDQGERWWRPXSYHQWXUHV 7KH)OHWFKHU6FKRRO·VPXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\\DSSURDFKWRFRPSOH[SUREOHPVROYLQJ WUDQVFHQGVWKHFODVVURRPDQGSUHSDUHVJUDGXDWHVIRUOHDGHUVKLSSRVLWLRQVWKDW VSDQWUDGLWLRQDOERXQGDULHV6WXGHQWVIURPGLͿHUHQWFRXQWULHVFKRRVHIURP PRUHWKDQFRXUVHVLQODZHFRQRPLFVÀQDQFHGLSORPDWLFKLVWRU\\SROLWLFV VHFXULW\\DQGPXFKPRUH$FURVVP\\ULDGEDFNJURXQGVÀHOGVRILQWHUHVW SHUVSHFWLYHVDQGFXOWXUHVWKH\\ZRUNFROODERUDWLYHO\\DQGVWXG\\FROOHFWLYHO\\ $VDUHVXOW)OHWFKHUVWXGHQWVHPHUJHQHWZRUNHGHQJDJHGDQGHTXLSSHGZLWK WKHVNLOOVWREXLOGEULGJHVWRZDUGDPRUHVHFXUHDQGSURVSHURXVIXWXUH Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy (MALD) Visit fletcher.tufts.edu or Master of International Business (MIB) email [email protected] Global Master of Arts Program (GMAP) Master of Laws in International Law (LLM) Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) Master of Arts (MA) Executive Education Become part of a global network of international leaders shaping today’s world: Photo credit: ICRISAT Rachel Kyte GMAP 2002, James Stavridis MALD 1983, PhD 1984, Manjula Dissanayake, MALD 2012, Mariana Benitez Tiburcio, LLM 2012, World Bank Group Vice President and (left), former Supreme Allied Founder, Educate Lanka micro- the first female Deputy Attorney General Special Envoy for Climate Change at Commander at NATO and current scholarship fund; Diplomatic Courier’s for International and Legal Affairs of an ICRISAT lab for transgenic crops Fletcher Dean, and Joseph Dunford Top 99 Under 33 Foreign Policy Mexico, second in line to the national MALD 1992 (right) Commandant of the Leader (2013) Attorney General’s Office. United States Marine Corps





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Mark Galeotti Clinical Professor Center for Global Affairs “Transnational Crime”...“Intelligence and Counterintelligence”...“Hard Power: The Uses and Abuses of Military Force”... just some of the courses that Dr. Mark Galeotti teaches at the NYU School of Professional Studies Center for Global Affairs. His areas of specialty include organized crime, security affairs, and modern Russia. His depth of knowledge is based upon years of experience working as a researcher in the British Houses of Parliament and in the City of London, serving as an advisor to the British Foreign & Commonwealth Office, and collaborating with commercial, law enforcement, and government agencies—from the U.S. Department of State to Interpol. Through his teaching in the M.S. in Global Affairs, Dr. Galeotti explores organized crime and its impact on the international order, providing students with a knowledge base that could only be acquired through years in the field. It is this caliber of education and this level of expertise that defines the programs offered by the Center for Global Affairs, as well as those across the NYU School of Professional Studies. Learn More M.S. in Global Affairs visit: sps.nyu.edu/cga/programs1a Graduate Certificates in call: 212-998-7100 Global Energy Peacebuilding request info. and/or apply: Transnational Security sps.nyu.edu/gradinfo12a Knowledge Through Practice



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