Foreign Policy - #169 November-December 2008

TOP PICKS FOR THE NEXT U.S. PRESIDENT’S CABINET GLOBAL POLITICS, ECONOMICS, AND IDEAS ® THE WORLD’S 60 MOST GLOBAL CITIES NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2008 ForeignPolicy.com America’s Hard Sell How American values lost their luster

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Big News and Big Ideas We normally use this page to highlight some of the big ideas our readers will encounter in the magazine. This time, we are making an exception to share some important news: Foreign Policy has a new home. We are thrilled to announce that on October 1, our magazine was purchased by the Washington Post Company from its longtime owner, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. For nearly four decades, the Carnegie Endowment’s generous and unwavering support allowed Foreign Policy to become what it is today—an award-winning pub- lication recognized for the quality of its content and the caliber of its writers. We are also proud that FP enjoys a growing, enthusiastic, and global audience, with editions in nine languages and readers in more than 160 countries. FP’s success would not have been possible without Carnegie’s recognition that editorial excellence depends on intellectual inde- pendence. As editors, we not only enjoyed Carnegie’s material support but, just as important, we were given the freedom to pursue big ideas regardless of any consideration other than their importance, rigor, and originality. In a competitive marketplace of ideas that is international and instantaneous, we know we will only attract and retain readers by presenting the most important ideas about global politics and economics in a way that challenges the common wisdom and stimulates new thinking. This approach has served us well. It stands at the core of the reasons that led the Washington Post Company to buy FP. At a time in which print publications are challenged by the Internet, our new owner recognizes that quality content mat- ters more than its format. And while most American publications are cutting back on their international coverage, the Washington Post Company sees the opportunities cre- ated by a growing market of readers eager to better understand how their communities, jobs, and families will be affected by what happens in other countries and continents. We don’t plan to make major changes to an editorial approach that is working well— just to give you more of it. Foreign Policy will continue to appear every two months, and ForeignPolicy.com will continue to offer original material on a daily basis. We will also be hard at work on a major relaunch of FP’s Web site for early 2009. We could not be more excited to join a company that embodies the values of quality journalism: objectivity and independence. And we cannot help but celebrate that our new owners are as dedicated as we are to the mission laid out in the first issue of Foreign Policy by its founders: “Our goal is a journal of foreign policy that is serious but not scholarly, lively but not glib, and critical without being negative.” These words are as valid today as they were in 1970. We look forward to hearing from you. And thank you for your continued support. The Editors P.S.: We are proud to announce that FP won three Folio awards in September. The magazine won gold in the Best Article category for “What America Must Do,” and it received second-place honors in the Best Article and Best Full Issue categories. We are honored to be singled out once again for one of the industry’s most competitive honors. November | December 2008 1

CONTENTS November|December 2008 4 LETTERS A legacy of failure I A second opinion I Questioning corruption I The problem with Pakistan. 28 IN BOX Fashion forward I The globalization of martyrdom I This is your brain on war I Epiphanies from Garry Kasparov I Development’s great depression I Plus, FP tests your knowledge of the world. 50 THINK AGAIN Meet the men and women who should form the next 32 The Catholic Church From the outside, the Vatican appears president’s team of rivals. flush with riches, resistant to change, and tone-deaf to scandal. But, 68 in reality, the Catholic Church is attracting millions of new and Urban legends: diverse followers who are embracing the church’s traditions of Find out which towns debate and independence as gospel. By John L. Allen Jr. top our ranking of the world’s most global cities. PRIME NUMBERS COVER: ILLUSTRATION BY SHOUT! FOR FP 40 Change Is in the Air More airlines around the world have gone 2 Foreign Policy belly up this year than in the aftermath of September 11. Airlines have simply met their match in the high price of oil. Nothing short of a com- plete overhaul of the industry—fewer carriers, fewer flights, and far higher prices—will keep the world flying. By William Swelbar ESSAYS TOP: ILLUSTRATION BY ZINA SAUNDERS FOR FP; BOTTOM: ANDY HWANG/ISTOCKPHOTO.COM 42 America’s Hard Sell For more than half a century, the United States ensured that five Big Ideas shaped international politics. Now, as the Big Ideas of the 21st century are formed, just who will corner the new global market of ideology is anyone’s guess. One thing is certain, though: If the United States wants to remain a player, it’s going to have to refine its sales pitch. By Bruce W. Jentleson and Steven Weber 50 The Dream Team The next American president will confront a host of potential cataclysms: from a virulent financial crisis to a vicious terrorist enemy, nuclear proliferation to climate change. He’ll need his country’s brightest minds—not his party’s usual suspects. So, we asked 10 of the world’s top thinkers to name the unlikely team that can best guide No. 44 through the turbulent years ahead. Robert Baer Kishore Mahbubani Christoph Bertram Cesare Merlini Robert L. Gallucci Grover Norquist Leslie H. Gelb Gideon Rachman Katrina vanden Heuvel Shashi Tharoor

TOP: GILLES SABRIE; BOTTOM: ILLUSTRATION BY SHOUT FOR FP GLOBALIZATION AT WORK 58 The adoption racket: 58 The Lie We Love International adoption seems like the ideal solution Inside the sad trade to a heartbreaking imbalance: Poor countries have babies in need of in foreign babies. homes, and rich countries have homes in need of babies. Unfortunately, those little bundles of joy may not be orphans at all. By E.J. Graff 42 Why the world THE FP INDEX is in the market for a new set of values. 68 The Global Cities Index Cities bear the brunt of the world’s November | December 2008 3 financial meltdowns, crime waves, and climate crises in ways national governments never will. So, when Foreign Policy, A.T. Kearney, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs teamed up to measure globalization around the world, we focused on the 60 cities that shape our lives the most. ARGUMENT 78 Power to the People Why it’s the poor—not the experts—who can best solve the food crisis. By Eric Werker REVIEWS 80 IN OTHER WORDS The dangers of ignoring evil By James Traub I An Arab intellectual studies an unlikely subject By Robert Silverman I Plus, what they’re reading in Havana. 90 NET EFFECT Development mafia 2.0 I Rebels with a server I Text for the cure I Bloggers sink the eu I Plus, Wired’s Chris Anderson on the sites that make him so darn smart. MISSING LINKS 96 After the Fall What the lessons of 9/11 could teach the world about the financial crisis. By Moisés Naím

[ ]L E T T E R S Moisés Naím A Legacy of Failure administration. It is, once again, an indictment of the American media and EDITOR IN CHIEF David Frum (“Think Again: Bush’s political establishment as a whole. Legacy,” September/October 2008) William J. Dobson makes some good points, but most of —Anatol Lieven the arguments in his essay are MANAGING EDITOR unproven or only manage to defend Professor, King’s College London George W. Bush by implicitly indicting Kate G. Palmer the U.S. foreign policy and security Senior Fellow, New America Foundation establishment in general. DEPUTY MANAGING EDITOR London, England On Iraq, Frum writes entirely in the Carolyn O’Hara future tense: The United States will The foreign-policy course of the Bush have achieved this and Iraq’s neighbors administration will long be remem- SENIOR EDITOR will remain that. It is still too early to bered, but any nostalgia will likely be tell what will happen if the United for opportunities lost rather than taken. Rebecca Frankel States withdraws most of its troops. Even Frum has a hard time selling the What we do know is that the invasion notion of a positive Bush foreign-policy ASSOCIATE EDITOR of Iraq failed to meet all the grandiose legacy. Frum argues that closer ties to promises held out by advocates, India, a pragmatic relationship with Preeti Aroon, Elizabeth Dickinson including Frum, from Israeli-Palestinian China, and pressure on Iran will pay peace to the democratization of Iran dividends for years to come. Frum’s ASSISTANT EDITORS and Syria. metaphor suggests that Bush has “invested” his foreign-policy capital, Joshua E. Keating On terrorism, Frum rightly points implying that even though these don’t out that there have been no new attacks seem like major gains now, they will be EDITORIAL ASSISTANT on the United States. But the reason in the future. may well be that, given moderately suc- Lara Ballou cessful defensive security measures, In the case of China, it’s hard to argue such attacks were never going to mate- with the pursuit of a pragmatic rela- ASSISTANT TO THE EDITOR rialize. Perhaps the 9/11 attacks were in tionship. Has this been a big invest- fact an evilly brilliant one-off, which ment or simply a recognition of China’s Jerome Y. Chen did not require or justify the radical role as the United States’ second largest recasting of U.S. strategy—let alone the creditor? With respect to Iran, the RESEARCHER invasion of Iraq. administration invested little diplomatic capital, leaving the tough negotiating to Travis C. Daub What we do know is the following: its European colleagues. More impor- that tens and possibly hundreds of tant, the policy hasn’t worked. ART DIRECTOR thousands of Iraqis died from civil war and terrorism in the wake of the Amer- On India, however, Bush made a big Bradley Amburn ican invasion; that terrorism and and unnecessary gamble. Like the extremism are rising in the vital coun- financial sector that relied on the con- DESIGN & PRODUCTION MANAGER try of Pakistan; and that the chief plan- tinuation of the housing bubble, Pres- ners of 9/11, Osama bin Laden and ident Bush’s big concessions to India Katherine Yester Ayman al-Zawahiri, are still free to have been predicated on a few hopes— plan attacks. and prayers—that India would reorient PRODUCTION ASSISTANT its foreign policy toward the United Furthermore, what is the “alliance” States and provide a strategic coun- Blake Hounshell with India really worth, given India’s terweight against China. In return, opposition to U.S. strategy on a range India achieved legitimacy as a nuclear WEB EDITOR of issues including links with Iran? power. And it doesn’t hurt that India, How valuable is the “alliance” with with the trade ban lifted, will now be Thomas R. Stec Europe, given the lack of real Euro- able to run its nuclear power reactors pean military help in Afghanistan? on foreign uranium, freeing up what WEBMASTER What have the United States and had been a limited domestic supply Europe together been able to do to for weapons. Blaine Sheldon stop Iran’s nuclear program? What has become of the Bush administration’s No one really believes there will be WEB DEVELOPER strategy toward Russia, given the com- nonproliferation dividends from this bination of recklessly encouraging deal. But the gamble may provoke CONTRIBUTING EDITORS Georgia and failing to defend that more runs on the bank. Jacques Attali, Paris; Jorge I. Domínguez, country? What has become of the Cambridge, Mass.; Yoichi Funabashi, Tokyo; “road map” to Middle East peace? —Sharon Squassoni Yegor T. Gaidar, Moscow; Gianni Riotta, Rome The fact that these questions are not being forcefully asked in the United Senior Associate CONTRIBUTING WRITERS States is not a defense of the Bush David L. Bosco, Christine Y. Chen Carnegie Endowment for International Peace EDITORIAL BOARD Washington, D.C. Morton Abramowitz, John Deutch, Lawrence Freedman, Diego Hidalgo, Stanley Hoffmann, Robert D. Hormats, Thomas L. Hughes, Karl Kaiser, Jessica T. Mathews, Donald F. McHenry, Cesare Merlini, Thierry de Montbrial, Joseph S. Nye Jr., Soli Özel, Moeen Qureshi, John E. Rielly, Klaus Schwab, Helmut Sonnenfeldt, Lawrence Summers, Strobe Talbott, Richard H. Ullman, Stephen M. Walt Foreign Policy 1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 Publishing Office: (202) 939-2230 Subscriptions: (800) 535-6343 ForeignPolicy.com © 2008 by Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive, LLC. All rights reserved. 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[ ]Letters On geopolitical grounds, Frum’s assess- on future events: whether Iraq contin- ments are highly questionable. Although ues toward peace and whether the U.S.- he concedes that the war in Iraq has India relationship matures into a true defined Bush’s presidency, Frum over- partnership. At the same time, many of looks the critical human toll of the war their criticisms are conditional as well. Lynn E. Newhouse on Iraq: citizens forced to move from The assumption that further terrorist ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER & GENERAL MANAGER their homes and become refugees in their attacks could have been prevented with Annette Munroe own country and beyond it. The human- “moderately successful defensive secu- CIRCULATION DIRECTOR itarian crisis in Iraq is no mere detail. rity measures” or that the Indian poli- Robert Essaf Displaced populations are fertile breed- cy will generate “runs on the bank” BUSINESS ASSISTANT ing pools for despair and terrorism. They are far from guaranteed outcomes, for Amy Russell can trigger conflict for the seizure of example. DIRECTOR OF SALES land and ethnic cleansing. And they can Much of the harshest criticism of the Maria San Jose shape the geopolitical interests of neigh- Bush presidency has already been ADVERTISING SALES REPRESENTATIVE boring countries. debunked by events. The tone of this Jina Hassan Regarding Latin America, Frum criticism has often been hyperpartisan MEDIA AND PR COORDINATOR makes the cryptic suggestion that Bush and overstated far beyond any reason- Alexia Sagemüller has given Hugo Chávez “enough rope able interpretation of the facts. CORPORATE PROGRAMS DIRECTOR to hang himself.” That could not be Laura Garcés’s letter is a perfect Sabina Nicholls further from the truth. Aside from example of this tendency. There has CORPORATE PROGRAMS ASSISTANT reports that the United States actively indeed been a terrible human toll in Randolph F. Manderstam intervened in 2002 to depose Chávez, Iraq. That toll has been the work of the SYNDICATION COORDINATOR the Bush administration has been quite terrorists and insurgents who have SUBSCRIPTIONS & SUBSCRIBER SERVICES active in supporting the Venezuelan made war on their fellow Iraqis with FOREIGN POLICY, P.O. Box 474, Mt. Morris, IL 61054-8499; ForeignPolicy.com; e-mail: president’s nemesis, Colombian Presi- brutal disregard for human life. The [email protected]; (800) 535-6343 in U.S.; (386) 246-0120 outside U.S.; Publications mail agree- dent Álvaro Uribe, in militarizing the suffering of civilians is the work of ment no. 40778561. Rates (in U.S. funds): $24.95 for one year; $44 for two years. Canada drug issue and, in the process, polariz- those who purposefully attacked them, add $12/yr. for postage and handling; other countries add $18/yr. For academic rates, go to ing South American countries along not those who tried with imperfect suc- ForeignPolicy.com/education. obsolete Cold War lines. Certainly, cess to protect them. ADVERTISING & FP CORPORATE PROGRAMS [For More OnlineWashington has been successful in alien- [ Call (202) 939-2243. ating several countries to its south. NEWSSTAND AND BOOKSTORE DISTRIBUTION Finally, Frum mentions that, because Curtis Circulation Company, 730 River Road, New Milford, NJ 07646-3048; (201) 634-7400. the United States has not suffered a major terrorist attack since 2001, one BACK ISSUES must infer that Washington’s policies $10.95 per copy. International airmail add $3.00 per have made Americans safer. Of course, David Frum answers readers’ questions copy; online: ForeignPolicy.com; e-mail: about his controversial defense of [email protected]. President Bush’s record, at MEDIA INQUIRIES one cannot quarrel with events that have ForeignPolicy.com/extras/frum. Call Jina Hassan at (202) 939-2242; [email protected]. not happened. But one could venture SYNDICATION REQUESTS that Osama bin Laden has no reason Contact Randolph F. Manderstam (202) 939-2241; now to expose himself and expend mas- [email protected]. A Second Opinionsive resources when he already accom- OTHER PERMISSION REQUESTS Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (978) 750-8400; plished exactly what he wanted: billions Roger Bate (“The Deadly World of www.copyright.com. of U.S. dollars spent launching wars, Fake Drugs,” September/October 6 Foreign Policy the total neglect of American infra- 2008) correctly identifies the serious structure, and the loss of business from threat to patient safety that substan- thousands of tourists who are wary of dard counterfeit medicines pose. But staying in line for hours dealing with one of his prescriptions—that health airport personnel. Decay and bank- professionals consider sacrificing broad ruptcy are what he sought, and fear is public access to treatment in favor of what he wanted to instill. purchasing more expensive brand- Can anyone doubt that he succeeded? name drugs—is bad medicine indeed. Bate, a resident fellow of the American —Laura Garcés Enterprise Institute, failed to disclose Independent Researcher that his organization receives substantial Washington, D.C. funding from brand-name pharmaceu- tical companies, including the Eli Lilly David Frum replies: and Company Foundation and the Anatol Lieven and Sharon Squassoni Bristol-Myers Squibb Foundation. Bate are certainly correct that some of my is also a fellow at the Institute of Eco- defense of the Bush foreign-policy nomic Affairs, which employs on its record is conditional. Much will depend board of trustees a former chairman of

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CAMPAIGN 2008: “A bridge between the [ ]Letters THE ISSUES CONSIDERED world of ideas and the SmithKline Beecham who is currently Baker Institute Fellows and Experts from the world of action.” a member of GlaxoSmithKline’s board Republican and Democratic Parties Examine Key of directors. Policy Issues of the 2008 Presidential Race James A. Baker, III Honorary Chair Brand-name pharmaceutical com- panies stand to benefit substantially New International Stem JAMES A. BAKER III Energy Forum from some of Bate’s proposals. For Cell Program Examines INSTITUTE FOR Explores Ways example, he claims humanitarian Middle Eastern Policies PUBLIC POLICY to Lower Fuel groups must choose between “expen- Prices sive, safe drugs that treat fewer patients, or cheaper drugs that might For more: not work.” This false dichotomy www.bakerinstitute.org excludes the many affordable generic medicines that have undergone rigor- ous testing at the World Health Organization and other major drug regulatory authorities. Bate asserts, with no supporting evi- dence, that “[humanitarian] groups often purchase copy drugs from China and India that have not been tested properly.” But estimates suggest up to 80 percent of the raw materials used by the U.S. drug industry are imported. Half of these also come from China and India, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is rarely able to inspect these plants. Expensive brand-name drugs are not categorically safer. Counterfeit medicines are a subset of a larger drug-quality problem. Relying on brand-name drugs won’t solve it. Bate’s suggestion would enrich Big Pharma while leaving the millions who rely on low-cost, high- quality generic medicines without treatment of any kind. —Peter Maybarduk Attorney Access to Medicines Project Essential Action Washington, D.C. Roger Bate replies: Peter Maybarduk mischaracterizes my arguments, denies a real problem, and scurrilously implies my arguments are dictated by money. Even major donors such as the Global Fund to Fight aids, Tubercu- losis and Malaria buy drugs not approved by stringent agencies like the U.S. fda or the World Health Organization. Given the inadequacies of testing regimes in most developing countries, where these drugs are pro- duced, substandard drugs pass through the system. The corrupt national drug producer of Thailand, applauded by many

The Best in International Economics China’s Rise: Challenges and Opportunities C. Fred Bergsten, Charles Freeman, Nicholas R. Lardy & Derek J. Mitchell “…designed to clarify contemporary China and advise how U.S. ‘engagement’ with China may best move ahead. There’s lots here, but clearly presented, with a great chronology.” Library Journal September 2008 • ISBN hardcover 978-0-88132-417-4 • $26.95 Leveling the Carbon Playing Field: International Competition and US Climate Policy Design Trevor Houser, Rob Bradley, Britt Childs, Jacob Werksman & Robert Heilmayr This important new book explores the critical question for the design of pro- posed US climate policy: how to level the playing field for carbon-intensive industries in competing polluting economies during a period of transition. This book is a collaboration between the Peterson Institute for International Econom- ics and the World Resources Institute. May 2008 • ISBN paper 978-0-88132-420-4 • $19.95 Challenges of Globalization: Imbalances and Growth Anders Åslund & Marek Dabrowski, editors This book addresses the growing global macroeconomic imbalances as well as the chal- lenges of globalization and long-term economic growth, with a focus on Europe and Asia. Various aspects of the macroeconomic imbalances are the theme of the first six chapters. The second part of the book discusses how the capitalist model of economic development is developing or should evolve, with the last two chapters considering options available to European policymakers to compete with the rapidly growing East Asian Tigers—Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea—and China. July 2008 • ISBN paper 978-0-88132-418-1 • $29.95 Russia The Balance Sheet US Pension Reform: Lessons from Other Countries Anders Åslund & Andrew Kuchins Martin N. Baily & Jacob F. Kirkegaard This collaboration between the Peterson Institute and CSIS provides information on all key aspects of Russia and discusses It is generally accepted that Social Security must be reformed, but there is what its status means for the US and other nations. The book little agreement on how. This book looks at the social pension reforms of develops a cohesive, overarching framework that analyzes twelve other countries, assesses the current US Social Security program, economic reforms and integration, domestic politics and society, and evaluates how these models inform opportunities for reform. It forges foreign business partnerships, and energy demands. It suggests significant advances and boldly confronts the challenge of reconstructing constructive policies for Russia and the next US administration the US Social Security program. that will take office in 2009. ISBN paper 978-0-88132-425-9 • $26.95 ISBN paper 978-0-88132-424-2 • $24.95 www.petersoninstitute.org

NYU’S [ ]Letters CENTER FOR GLOBAL AFFAIRS nongovernmental organizations and ini- tially supported by the Global Fund, Many people think about changing the world. was forced to shut down because of Some are actually preparing to do it. low-quality products. However, these same medicines were administered to MASTER’S IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS thousands of hiv/aids patients by We live in a time of unprecedented interaction between countries, continents, and ngos and the Thai government. No cultures. The impact of political decisions, economic trends, and social and environ- public apology was ever made for mental issues extends more broadly than at any time in human history. Today, we are buying these substandard products. all global citizens. Chinese and Indian producers have The Master of Science in Global Affairs at NYU is designed for those looking to widely varying standards. The best effect change in the international community, providing the context, insights, and companies in these countries have drugs connections necessary to do so. Our exceptional faculty—UN officials, economists, approved by the World Health Organi- historians, NGO leaders, journalists—will help you develop the kind of leadership zation and the fda. I support these and strategic decision-making skills you will need to make a difference in our inter- drugs, not just brand names as May- connected world. barduk suggests. Information Sessions: But problems remain with most drugs Tuesday, November 11, 6–8 p.m. produced in China and India. U.S. com- Wednesday, December 17, 6–8 p.m. panies do import their ingredients, but Please call for locations and to RSVP. unlike American patients, they can assess if the imports are defective. Yes, scps.nyu.edu/811 1-888-998-7204, ext.811 occasionally they make mistakes, and the nearly 100 Americans who died New York University is an affirmative action/equal opportunity institution. ©2008 New York University School of Continuing and Professional Studies from Chinese heparin were a tragic and rare example. Imagine the death toll if the fda had allowed importation of the unsafe final products routinely used in the developing world. The American Enterprise Institute has hundreds of corporate supporters accounting for only about 20 percent of its budget. None can contract for specific work. The vast majority of funding for my investigations of coun- terfeit drugs was grants from the Ohrstrom Foundation and Legatum Institute—neither of which creates a conflict of interest. As to the Institute of Economic Affairs, I am an unpaid fellow, and my only mention of GlaxoSmithKline was highly critical of the company. The funding of May- barduk’s organization doesn’t interest me, but his advocacy of poor medi- cines for the poor worries me greatly. Questioning Corruption Raymond Fisman and Edward Miguel (“How Economics Can Defeat Cor- ruption,” September/October 2008) rightly argue that in fighting corruption “incentives matter” and that the foren- sic use of economic data can provide valuable insights into corruption schemes. Continuous, creative approaches are always needed to keep up with the ingenuity of the corrupters.

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[ ]Letters Raymond Fisman and The Pakistan Edward Miguel reply: Problem But, to suggest that “[o]nly then can We fully agree with Nancy Zucker we take up the much more difficult chal- Boswell that immediate and direct International observers, including those lenge of determining what to do about action is required to root out corrup- surveyed in Foreign Policy’s 2008 it” is to ignore a substantial body of evi- tion around the world, and that pol- Terrorism Index (September/October dence that can and should be put into icymakers already have some tools in 2008), have concluded that Pakistan action now. There is broad consensus hand for doing so. We applaud those will soon become the central front in among donors, governments, and the efforts that are already taking place, the fight against terrorism and that private sector that certain approaches including those spearheaded by Trans- their respective governments must play are necessary—if not entirely sufficient. parency International. a central role in this fight. But without These include increased transparency of local knowledge and a deeper under- information, supervision, criminal However, there is far more we must standing of the forces at play, such per- enforcement, and, yes, rewarding learn about designing the most effec- ceptions are meaningless and highly accountability with incentives. tive anticorruption strategies. Beyond counterproductive. To make real the methods we discuss in our article progress, the world must adopt a These and other basic pillars of an for reforming economic incentives and sophisticated and nuanced approach effective anticorruption agenda that institutions, future research can also to work with Pakistan. Transparency International has long play a role in debunking certain ele- espoused are now universally agreed ments of conventional wisdom regard- Since 9/11, Islamabad has paid a upon and codified at the international ing anticorruption efforts that sound heavy price for collaborating with level, most notably in the U.N. Conven- plausible in theory but might not be Washington. Pakistan’s western tribal tion Against Corruption and in the effective in practice. regions, a natural buffer of defense, World Bank’s Governance and Anti- have been eroded. For supporting the Corruption Strategy. Although further The worst enemy of progress against United States, Gen. Pervez Mushar- study is always welcome, action to imple- corruption is complacency. So, yes, we raf’s regime lost the support of tribal ment these basic tenets is well overdue. should conduct anticorruption actions leaders, contributing directly to an now, but the rigorous reevaluation of upsurge in terrorist attacks from that —Nancy Zucker Boswell public policy—which can often yield region. In 2007 alone, Pakistan suf- unexpected results and insights—must fered at least 45 suicide bombings, President remain a top priority. Transparency International—USA Washington, D.C. SCHOOL of INTERNATIONAL SERVICE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY preparing leaders largest school of international affairs in the United States giving committed to students the oppo tunity to earn masters degrees in the following fields of study: developing ideas, promoting Comparative & Regional Studies International Economic Relations Global Environmental Policy International Peace & Conflict Resolution sustainable action, International Communication International Politics and advancing global International Development United States Foreign Policy public service. APPLICATION DEADLINE FOR FALL 2009 IS JANUARY 15, 2009 w w w. a m e r i c a n . e d u / s i s Celebrating 50 Years of International Service eeo/aa

more than double the number that STANFORD UNIVERSITY took place between 2002 and 2006, and the deaths of a number of politi- managing global complexity cal leaders, including Benazir Bhutto. After Iraq and Afghanistan, Pakistan requires substantive policy expertise has suffered more fatalities from sui- cide terrorism than any other country. THE FORD DORSEY PROGRAM IN INTERNATIONAL POLICY STUDIES Preparing the next generation of analysts to influence international To neutralize the threat, Pakistan policy making in trade, foreign affairs, security, and economic needs international understanding, development. Join a small group of peers who want to make a participation, and support. Unless its difference in the world. rule of law, judiciary, and law enforce- Master of Arts | Two year program | Fall 2009 application deadline: January 6, 2009 ment authorities are strengthened, the Islamists and jihadists will win. To LIMITED FINANCIAL AID AVAILABLE challenge the forces of extremism sys- tematically, the West must also sup- 216 Encina Hall West, Stanford, CA 94305-6045 | 650.725.9155 port Pakistan’s economic development http://ips.stanford.edu | [email protected] and the reform of the country’s edu- cation system. PROVOCATIVE Pakistan faces an unprecedented cri- Strategic Advantage sis. But it cannot fight the contempo- rary wave of terrorism and extremism Challengers, Competitors, and Threats to alone. With the threat from tribal areas America’s Future spreading to the country’s center, the world’s security is in peril. No country Bruce Berkowitz is more important than Pakistan in the 978-1-58901-222-6, $26.95, paperback fight against terrorism—and it’s time for the international community to Career Diplomacy back up its concern with action. Life and Work in the U.S. Foreign Service —Rohan Gunaratna Harry W. Kopp and Charles A. Gillespie Head, The International Centre for 978-1-58901-219-6, paperback, $26.95 Political Violence and Terrorism Research Professor of Security Studies, The S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore The Center for American Progress replies: The experts polled in the Terrorism Index also see a national security dis- aster unfolding in Pakistan, as militant groups extend their authority beyond Pakistan’s tribal areas, threatening Pakistan, the region, and the world. The September terrorist attack on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, in which 53 people were killed and hundreds wounded, is further evidence of Pak- istan’s vulnerability to these extremists and the growing strength, cruelty, and audacity of these groups. Like Rohan Gunaratna, a majority of the index’s experts recommend a change in the U.S. approach toward Pakistan. Moreover, most agree with the assessment that the world must focus on areas such as the rule of law, Pakistan’s economic development, and education. When asked to name the most important step the United

New York is An Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Institution [ ]Letters INTERNATIONAL States could take to assist or pressure THE NEW SCHOOL Pakistan to combat militant groups more effectively, few experts chose is New York increasing military assistance. Most prefer efforts to integrate tribal areas EARN A MASTER’S DEGREE IN into the rest of Pakistan or increases in development assistance. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS What is clear to the national secu- Join a community of students from 62 rity establishment is that there are no countries—from NGO activists, executives easy answers to Pakistan’s problems. of international organizations, and experts in This summer, U.S. President George technology, media, and finance, to returned W. Bush secretly authorized the use of Peace Corps volunteers and recent college force within Pakistan without the graduates—each desiring to effect real country’s approval. Yet when asked change in the world. Here, you’ll combine for their assessment of whether the interdisciplinary study with practical problem- United States should take military solving skills, and gain new perspectives action in an identical situation, more that can only be found in the world’s most than 6 in 10 of the experts answered international city. “unsure” this spring. · Work directly with international Policymakers from Pakistan, the United States, and elsewhere are now practitioners and scholars running out of time. They must move urgently to create a more effective, · Explore issues in global economics, comprehensive, and coordinated strat- egy to address the Pakistani crisis. As poverty and development, cities and Gunaratna rightly indicates, it must be urbanization, international institutions, regional, extend beyond a military NGOs, human rights, conflict and approach, and target the sources of security, and media and culture Pakistan’s instability. · Learn from summer fieldwork —Caroline Wadhams experiences around the world National Security Senior Policy Analyst INFORMATION SESSIONS The Center for American Progress Monday, December 1, at 6:00 p.m. Wednesday, January 21, at 6:00 p.m. Washington, D.C. 66 West 12th Street, NYC Corrections: To RSVP or for more about the program, The In Box article “Poppy Trade” in contact admissions at 212.229.5630 or Foreign Policy’s September/October visit us online. issue misstated the market prices for wheat and poppy in Afghanistan. It www.newschool.edu/ia10 should have read: “In 2007, a farmer could expect returns of about $320 per acre of wheat and $640 for an acre of poppy. But by this spring, the return on an acre of wheat had risen to $840 per acre, while poppy had fallen to $400 an acre.” FP regrets the error. Foreign Policy welcomes letters to the editor. Readers should address their comments to fpletters @ForeignPolicy.com. Letters should not exceed 300 words and may be edited for length and clarity. Letters sent by e-mail should include a postal address.

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Earn a Master of Arts in GOVERNMENT The Master of Arts in Government Program at Johns Hopkins’ Washington, DC Center maximizes the synergy between the study of politics and practical work experience — it’s where the theory and practice of government merge. Discover the next phase of your career with Hopkins in the Capital. Concentrate your studies in: MA in Government/MBA Security Studies Legal Studies Certificate in National Political Communication Security Studies Evening and weekend classes are available. Take advantage of great networking opportunities and rolling admissions. Apply online anytime. Learn more online now. government.jhu.edu eufocus in Foreign Policy A MESSAGE FROM AMBASSADOR JOHN BRUTON Q EU Focus In-depth treatment Head of Delegation of important European European Commission Delegation to the United States issues and the One of the founding purposes of today’s European Union was to create transatlantic relationship lasting peace among countries that had fought each other for centuries. Not surprisingly, given that peace and prosperity are still our guiding Q This Issue objectives, we devote considerable energy and resources to maintaining The EU and Peacekeeping: peace beyond our borders. Promoting Security, Stability, and Democratic Values Through military and civilian missions, the EU and its Member States monitor ceasefires, observe elections, support police and judicial reform, promote human Q Comments rights and the rule of law, and help rebuild democratic institutions. Since 2003, the EU E-mail to Delegation-USA- has carried out more than 20 peacekeeping operations in Europe, Africa and Asia, either [email protected] autonomously or in conjunction with the UN, NATO, or the African Union. www.eurunion.org In this issue of EU Focus, I’m pleased to share with you the many ways in which the EU is working to help others end – and recover from – violent conflict.

Special Advertising Supplement eufocus| |November2008 The EU and Peacekeeping: Promoting Security, Stability, and Democratic Values \"The enlarged European Union From its creation, the European Union has engaged in EUFOR Chad (2008) has the power and the capability crisis management and conflict prevention. Conceived to shape global order. During as a means to end war in Europe through institutional From the Western Balkans to Africa, from West the last fifty years, we built integration and a voluntary pooling of sovereignty, the EU Asia to Southeast Asia and beyond, the EU's ESDP a peaceful Europe based on today continues to strive for peace, security, and prosper- missions have helped save lives, protect the vulner- freedom and solidarity. In the ity across the European continent—and often beyond. able, and achieve greater stability. Ranging from future, to guarantee and to Since the mid-1990s, the EU has been developing a military actions to police and rule of law opera- reinforce such achievements, we credible foreign and security policy designed to contrib- tions, EU missions are deployed autonomously or to need to influence and to shape ute meaningfully to peacekeeping through international complement those of the UN, NATO, and the African the world around us….We will crisis management operations around the globe. Union. EU Member States also contribute forces to not live in peace if we do not other international peacekeeping activities. face the external threats to our The European Union and its 27 Member States, security and the instability in the together with the United Nations and others involved European Security and regions close to Europe.\" in peacekeeping, are currently engaged in innovative Defense Policy (ESDP) missions to secure, maintain, and build peace through- European Commission President out the world. Modern peacekeeping dates back to 1948 Part of the EU's Common Foreign and Security José Manuel Barroso and the launch of the first United Nations mission—the Policy, ESDP enables the EU to develop the UN Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO), which international crisis management capacities inside still operates in the Middle East today. required to achieve five key objectives: 2 Supporting a A necessary element in today's conflict management Q Safeguarding the EU's common values and Sustainable Peace operations, traditional peacekeeping focuses primar- fundamental interests; ily on monitoring ceasefires. Without establishing and 3 Ensuring Free and Fair maintaining a safe and secure environment in post- Q Strengthening the security of the EU; Elections: EU Election conflict situations, further development is impossible. Q Preserving peace and international security Assistance and However, since the end of the Cold War, peacekeep- Observation Missions ing operations have evolved to incorporate additional in accordance with the UN Charter; non-military elements designed to foster democratic Q Promoting international cooperation; 4 ESDP Missions institutions, the rule of law and respect for human Q Advancing democracy and the rule of law, around the World rights, a functional police and judiciary, and an electoral process that meets accepted international standards. including human rights. 6 Peacekeeping Close to Home: Perhaps the best example of the EU's comprehensive Paving the Way to approach to peacekeeping can be found in the Western EU Membership in Balkans. Countries that were mired in devastating the Western Balkans conflict in the early 1990s are now at various stages on the road to EU membership. European Security and 8 EU Peacekeeping Defense Policy (ESDP) military operations in both in the International Bosnia and Herzegovina and the former Yugoslav Context Republic of Macedonia have contributed to a safe, secure environment, supported by police missions that shared expertise and best practices to develop a professional, effective police force. | eufocus 1 |

Special Advertising Supplement Supporting a Sustainable Peace The EU's Guiding Doctrine— The European Union strives for stability, security, ties by developing 13 battle groups which will be in European Security Strategy and prosperity at home and in its relations abroad. service by 2010. Each battle group consists of approxi- Supporting a sustainable peace is the first step in mately 1,500 troops that can be deployed within 15 The European Security Strategy, meeting these objectives, as well as in ensuring days for up to four months, either as a stand-alone adopted in December 2003, that states emerging from conflict can rebuild their force or as an advance force preparing for a larger presents the EU vision of a stronger democratic institutions and rejoin the community of multinational peacekeeping effort. international society, based on nations as active, functioning states. well-functioning international Two battle groups are already permanently on institutions and a rules-based Peacekeeping has evolved from its traditional role of standby for six-month periods, providing the capacity international order, by: maintaining a safe and secure environment to include to undertake two concurrent rapid-response opera- elements like election observation missions, support tions. Member State contributions to the required t \"TTFTTJOH UIF &6hT TFDVSJUZ for police and the judiciary in states recovering from troop commitments have been confirmed through environment in the context the ravages of conflict, promotion of the rule of law, the first half of 2011. Future military needs will be of global challenges and key and respect for human rights. coordinated by the EU's European Defense Agency, threats, including terrorism, which is charged with improving European defense the proliferation of weapons From traditional peacekeeping to police and security capabilities in the field of crisis management and of mass destruction, regional sector reform, from border management to judicial sustaining the ESDP now and in the future. conflicts, state failure, and training, the EU is helping other countries to end and organized crime; recover from conflict. The EU employs an innova- Many EU Member States are also members of NATO, tive mix of military and civilian operations to keep and the EU and NATO officials work closely together t %FGJOJOH UISFF NBKPS TUSBUFHJD the peace, to manage crises, and to advise, assist, and to ensure proper coordination and mutual reinforce- objectives: confronting threats train local officials who are vital to the functioning of ment of military crisis management operations. The through conflict prevention a democratic, rules-based government. 2003 so-called EU-NATO Berlin-Plus Agreement and responding to complex allows the EU access to NATO's collective assets and problems with multifaceted European Security and Defense Policy capabilities for EU-led operations. solutions; building security in Europe's neighborhood; and During the past decade, the European Security and Through Civilian Crisis Management Missions, the promoting an international Defense Policy (ESDP) has developed rapidly to EU supports a fragile state through operations targeting order based on multilateralism; become the Union's first coherent strategy to identify police and security management, the rule of law, civilian and respond to EU-wide security concerns. administration, and monitoring. Such assistance helps t 0VUMJOJOH UIF QPMJDZ JNQMJDB- the state to recover enough to deliver a secure and safe tions for Europe to become ESDP affords EU Member States a broad range of options environment, a reliable, trustworthy police force and more active, more capable, and for managing crises as well as an enhanced ability to act judiciary, and a competent government administration. more coherent—the EU is a rapidly and collectively in the face of security threats. global player and must share the ESDP missions include humanitarian and rescue opera- Q Police operations can entail advice, assistance, responsibility for global security tions, peacekeeping and peacemaking, and the use of training, and even substituting for local police and building a better world. combat forces in crisis management. Since 2003, the EU forces. EU Member States can provide roughly has carried out more than 20 ESDP operations—includ- 6,000 police officers, of whom 25 percent can be ing military and police missions, rule of law missions, deployed in less than 30 days. border management operations, and civilian-military support actions—in Europe, Africa, and Asia. Q Strengthening the rule of law with a properly functioning judicial and penal system necessarily ESDP on the Ground: how it works. backs up the work of the police forces. Member States contribute more than 600 officers for Military Crisis Management Operations do not these missions. depend upon a standing EU army but rather on troops drawn from dedicated national forces. The initial goal Q A pool of more than 550 European civil admin- was for Member States to be able to cooperatively istration experts can be deployed for civilian deploy a force of up to 60,000 within 60 days, and administration missions, at short notice, sustain the deployment for up to one year. if necessary. To address the current and future need for more rapid Q Member States have committed more than 500 deployments, the EU augmented its military capabili- personnel for monitoring missions, which contribute to conflict prevention and deterrence and enhance EU visibility on the ground. | 2 eufocus |

Special Advertising Supplement Ensuring Free and Fair Elections: EU Election Assistance and Observation Missions Credible and fair elections are vital to democracy, When there is no EU EOM, and the European \"Over the last decade Cambodia has the rule of law, and respect for human rights—all Parliament decides to send an observation mission, taken many important steps toward elements that help keep the peace. Genuine elections the observation team participates independently (or democracy and in particular in the are an essential basis for sustainable development in cooperation with the relevant international organi- field of human rights. Nevertheless, and a functioning democracy. Election observers zations), as it did for the parliamentary elections in it is still a country in a post-conflict deter fraud and violence and build confidence in the Kosovo in 2007. situation and more work remains to electoral process among political contestants, civil be done. Therefore, the EU has been society, and the wider electorate. Election Observation Missions on the and will remain actively engaged Ground in supporting Cambodia in a wide Even the United States government, in the wake of the array of areas including education, contested 2000 presidential election, requested and Pakistan. In February 2008, an EU EOM team was judicial reform, fighting corruption, received an election observation mission from the present for the national and provincial assembly and increasing transparency within Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe elections in Pakistan. Led by Michael Gahler, Member the government.\" (OSCE) to ensure that the 2004 elections were free, fair, of the European Parliament (MEP), the EOM and conducted according to widely accepted standards. concluded that the elections represented a plural- —Benita Ferrero-Waldner, When a democracy as well-established as the U.S. can istic process in which a broad range of views were EU Commissioner for External benefit from election observers, it is no wonder that expressed. The public demonstrated increased public Relations and Neighborhood Policy fledgling democracies increasingly count on impartial confidence in the polling process, in comparison to observers like the EU to monitor their electoral process. previous elections, and the media and civil society provided greater scrutiny of the electoral process. Like the OSCE, the EU is actively involved in election assistance and observation missions worldwide. Since However, abuse of state resources and bias in the state 2000, more than 60 EU election observation missions media favored the former ruling parties. As a result, (EOMs) and 10 election assistance missions have been the overall process fell short of a number of interna- deployed to almost every continent, except the OSCE tional standards for genuine democratic elections. region, where the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) takes the Cambodia. An EU EOM was present in Cambodia for lead. Both organizations adhere to accepted inter- the July 2008 National Assembly elections. Headed by national standards for elections and the democratic Martin Callanan, MEP, the mission concluded that the process, and coordinate closely with other groups conduct of these elections showed a marked improve- involved in similar activities. ment over previous ones, but fell short in a number of key international standards. There was a lack of The EU has deployed election observation missions, confidence in the impartiality of election authorities; often headed by a member of the European Parliament, widespread use of state resources marked the campaign throughout Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin period; media access was difficult for opposition America, and closer to home in the Western Balkans. parties; and civic education favored the ruling party. Authorization for an EU election observation mission Election Assistance involves technical or material support for the electoral process, including requires an invitation from the host country's govern- provision of voting material and equipment, help with voter registration, general input to the ment or election authorities and is predicated upon national electoral body, or advice on establishing a legal framework for the election. additional conditions being met in the country holding the election, notably: Election Observation is the political complement to election assistance and aims to legiti- mize and enhance public confidence in the electoral process, deter fraud, strengthen respect Q Universal adult suffrage; for human rights, and contribute to the resolution of conflict. Observers scrutinize the ability of political parties to participate freely and be heard during the electoral process, Q Political parties and individual candidates must access to the media for candidates, voter education, and overall security as it relates to be granted their legitimate right to participate in citizens' participation in the process. the election; EU election observation also involves an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of an Q Freedom of movement, assembly, and expression electoral process and the presentation of recommendations that help determine appropriate must be safeguarded, including public opposition post-election assistance. to the incumbent government; Q Candidates must have reasonable access to the media. | eufocus 3 |

Special Advertising Supplement ESDP Missions around the World EU High Representative for Military Operations—Ensuring Stability Civilian Missions—Police, Rule of Law, Common Foreign and Security and Security Border Management, Monitoring Policy Javier Solana meets with peacekeepers in Chad. 1 EUFOR Concordia | former Yugoslav Republic Police Missions of Macedonia (fYROM) | 2003 | 350 Troops \"The linking of civilian and military Supported the implementation of the August 2001 Ohrid 9 EUPM Bosnia and Herzegovina | Since 2003 elements, at both the conceptual Framework Agreement ending hostilities between armed Aims to establish a sustainable, professional, and and operational level, is probably ethnic Albanian groups and fYROM security forces. multi-ethnic police service in BiH through mentoring, our most important contribution to monitoring, and inspection, with a particular focus on conflict resolution. All are concerned 2 EUFOR Artemis | Democratic Republic of Congo police reform and fighting organized crime. with conflict prevention, resolution, | 2003 | 1,800 Troops and stabilization.\" Helped the UN Mission in DR Congo (MONUC) 10 EUPM Proxima | former Yugoslav Republic of stabilize the security conditions and improve the Macedonia (fYROM) | 2004–2005 Javier Solana, humanitarian situation in Bunia. Supported fYROM's development of an efficient and EU High Representative for Common professional police service through monitoring and 3 EUFOR Althea | Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) | advising at the central, regional, sub-regional, and Foreign and Security Policy Since 2004 | 2,500 Troops police station level. Ensures compliance with the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords, provides deterrence against future conflict, 11 EUPAT | former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and enhances security and public safety. (fYROM) | 2006 Succeeded Proxima, with a special focus on border 4 EUFOR DR Congo | 2006 | 2,300 Troops police, public peace, order, accountability, and the fight Assisted the UN Mission in DR Congo (MONUC) against corruption and organized crime. in securing the region during the historic electoral process in 2006. 12 EUPOL Kinshasa | DR Congo | 2005–2007 Strengthened the management capacities of the 5 EUFOR Chad/Central African Republic (CAR) | Integrated Police Unit through training and partici- 2008–2009 | 3,700 Troops pation in a joint think tank on the reform and Contributes to a wider international and multi-dimen- reorganization of the National Congolese Police. sion presence under UN auspices in response to the Darfur crisis. 13 EUPOL DR Congo | Since 2007 Building on the Kinshasa mission, assists the Congolese Mixed Civilian/Military Operations for police in reform efforts, and supports all its possible Security Sector Reform interactions with the judicial system. 6 EU Support for African Union Mission in 14 EUPOL COPPS | Palestinian Territories | Darfur/Sudan | 2005–2007 Since 2006 Established a civilian-military action to support the Helps improve the enforcement capacity of the AU's enhanced mission to Darfur/Sudan, including Palestinian Civil Police through advice, mentoring, provision of equipment and assets, planning and techni- and support for immediate operational priorities and cal assistance, training of African troops and police, longer-term transformational change. and help with tactical and strategic transportation. 15 EUPOL Afghanistan | Since 2007 7 EUSEC DR Congo | 2005–2009 Establishes sustainable and effective civil policing Provides advice and assistance to the Congolese security arrangements to ensure appropriate interaction with authorities, while promoting policies compatible with the wider Afghan criminal justice system, including human rights, international humanitarian law, democratic strategies for criminal investigation, national training, standards and good governance, and the rule of law. and border management. 8 EU SSR Guinea-Bissau | 2008 Rule of Law Missions Provides advice and assistance to the local authorities to help create the conditions for implementation of the 16 EUJUST THEMIS | Georgia | 2004–2005 National Security Sector Reform Strategy. Supported Georgian authorities in addressing urgent challenges in the criminal justice system and | 4 eufocus |

Special Advertising Supplement 3 19 9 18 10 16 1 11 17 15 20 14 6 21 8 5 2 47 12 13 assisted the government in developing a coordinated Monitoring Missions approach to the reform process that conformed to international standards. 21 AMM Monitoring Mission | Aceh, Indonesia | 2005–2006 17 EUJUST LEX | Iraq | Since 2005 In coordination with Norway, Switzerland, and Provides professional development opportunities for contributing countries of ASEAN, monitored the senior Iraqi officials from the criminal justice system, implementation of various aspects of the peace agree- to foster confidence, mutual respect, and operational ment reached between the Indonesian government and cooperation between officials with the Iraqi police, the Free Aceh Movement. judiciary, and prison system. 18 EULEX Kosovo | Deploying during the second Q&A with Lieutenant-General Pat Nash, Operational Commander half of 2008 of the EU Force in Chad/CAR Helps Kosovo achieve a strong independent multi- ethnic justice system and police and customs service, Q. Why is Europe acting and why now? on UN Security Council Resolution 1778 with a particular focus on protection of minority What are the specific EU interests in (2007), and is aimed at contributing to a communities and the fight against corruption and this area? general improvement in security, creating organized crime, by monitoring, mentoring, and A. Stabilization of the Darfur region is an a safe and secure environment in eastern advising on all areas related to the rule of law. important objective for Europe. Security Chad and in northeastern CAR. This will is a precondition for development, and allow for humanitarian aid to be deliv- Border Management Missions the military operation will reinforce ered, and provide for the safety of the UN's and complement other EU initiatives, MINURCAT (United Nations Mission in the 19 EUBAM | Moldova and Ukraine | 2005–2009 political, economical, and diplomatic, in Central African Republic and Chad) police Reinforces the capacity of Moldovan and Ukrainian the region. mission and the return of internally displaced officials to carry out effective border and customs persons. Resolution 1778 was unanimously controls and border surveillance. Q. What is the goal of the military opera- approved and authorizes \"all necessary tion in Chad/CAR? measures\" to achieve the mandated tasks. 20 EUBAM RAFAH | Gaza | Since 2005 (temporar- A. My task is to translate diplomatic policy ily suspended in the wake of the Hamas takeover in into military action; the operation is based — EDSP News, July 2008 the Gaza Strip) Monitors the operations of the Rafah border crossing point in Gaza and builds confidence between the government of Israel and the Palestinian Authority. | eufocus 5 |

Special Advertising Supplement Peacekeeping Close to Home: Paving the Way to EU Membership in the Western Balkans \"In failed states, military instruments It is no accident that the EU's earliest peacekeep- According to Javier Solana, the EU's High may be needed to restore order, ing activities were in Europe's own backyard, in the Representative for Common Foreign and Security humanitarian means to tackle the Western Balkans. When war broke out in the former Policy, \"As the main threat to stability is no longer immediate crisis. Regional conflicts Yugoslavia, the EU—without a formalized inter- armed conflict but criminality, the emphasis of our need political solutions, but military vention capacity—tried unsuccessfully to broker a support must be police and not military.\" assets and effective policing may diplomatic settlement but could only intervene as part be needed in the post conflict of UN peacekeeping efforts and subsequently, under The 175-member Proxima mission monitored, phase. Economic instruments serve U.S. leadership, as part of a NATO force. mentored, and advised the country's police on fighting reconstruction, and civilian crisis organized crime and promoting European policing management helps restore civil In response to its inability to act as decisively as standards. When Proxima concluded in late 2005, an government. The European Union is it had hoped to do, the EU pushed forward with EU Police Advisory Team (EUPAT) remained for a particularly well equipped to respond its Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), further six months to bolster the development of an to such multi-faceted situations.\" European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP), and efficient and professional police service. European Security Strategy (ESS), which paved the —European Security Strategy, way for a unified and effective EU presence on the Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) 2003 world stage. The Dayton Peace Agreement successfully ended \"We are here to help establish the rule Regional conflicts and state failures are among the the Bosnian war after three and a half years of fratri- of law, so that we can help protect key threats to global security identified by the ESS. cidal ethnic killing. However, as a study by the EU's people and guarantee freedom of The EU and its Member States have actively helped Institute for Security Studies notes, the BiH state was movement. We are here to help provide contain these threats in the Western Balkans, and the left extremely weak and would not have survived fair and impartial access to justice for EU has offered the countries the prospect of member- without substantial international commitment over everybody and to make sure the rights ship contingent upon political and economic reforms, the next decade. of everybody will be respected.\" along with their willingness to conform to EU law and policy and to take on the obligations of membership. Since 2003, the EU has been the primary international —Yves de Kermabon, head of the peacekeeper/peace builder in BiH, and the potential EULEX mission in Kosovo The EU's \"gravitational pull\" has proved to be the now exists to turn Bosnia into a sustainable multi- ultimate conflict prevention strategy. Today, the Balkans ethnic democracy. The EU's integrated approach are an excellent example of the EU's commitment to toward Bosnia combines a multi-dimensional ESDP maintaining peace—to building a secure, prosperous, presence on the ground with the \"carrot\" of progres- and democratic Balkan region as an essential element sive European integration. of a Europe that is whole, free, and at peace. The EU launched the EUFOR Althea military opera- The former Yugoslav Republic of tion in BiH in December 2004, deploying 7,000 troops Macedonia (fYROM) to ensure continued compliance with the Dayton peace accords, contribute to a safe and secure environment The EU launched its first military peacekeeping in BiH, and support the authorities in their fight operation under ESDP—Concordia—on March 31, against organized crime. EUFOR Althea took over 2003, at the explicit request of the fYROM govern- from a NATO operation and uses NATO's assets and ment. The aim was to contribute to a stable, secure capabilities to carry out its mission under a permanent environment, and to support the implementation of EU-NATO arrangement known as \"Berlin Plus.\" the August 2001 Ohrid Framework Agreement, which ended hostilities between armed ethnic Albanian While improved security conditions have led to a force groups and the country's security forces. reduction to roughly 2,500 troops (backed by \"over the horizon\" reserves) consisting of personnel from 24 EU Taking over from NATO, Concordia's 250 lightly-armed Member States and five non-EU countries (Albania, military personnel helped fYROM become a peaceful Chile, fYROM, Switzerland, and Turkey), EUFOR and democratic country, where an international Althea is ongoing and will remain as long as necessary. security presence is no longer needed. Concordia was completed on December 15, 2003, and was succeeded The EUPM—the EU's very first ESDP mission—is by an EU-led police mission, Proxima. an ongoing police mission in BiH that employs best European and international practices to establish a sustainable, professional, and multi-ethnic police | 6 eufocus |

Special Advertising Supplement service in BiH. Launched in 2003 at the request of the BiH government, EUPM upgrades the skills of officers throughout the country and equips the police force to fight organized crime. It also plays a key role in police reform. Achievements to date include: Q Transformation of the State Investigation and EU police mission in Sarajevo The Road to EU Protection Agency (SIPA) into an operational Membership for the police agency with enhanced executive powers to and Association Process, helps drive through reforms Western Balkans fight organized crime; that strengthen institutions, develop the economy, and adopt European standards. The EU is the largest donor Because the future of the Western Q Development of other state-level institutions, to Kosovo (nearly €2 billion to date), and in the next Balkan nations lies firmly in particularly the Ministry of Security and the three years (2009-2011), EU commitments to Kosovo Europe, the EU has offered the Border Police; will exceed an additional €1.2 billion. prospect of membership to Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Q Local ownership of the police reform process the former Yugoslav Republic of through establishment of the Police Steering Macedonia (fYROM), Montenegro, Board, co-chaired by EUPM and local authorities; Serbia, and Kosovo. Q Progress in implementing the police reform with The Stabilization and Association the mission playing a key advisory role. Process (SAp) is the policy through which the EU provides political, Kosovo The office of the EU Special Representative supports practical, and financial support to Kosovo's government during the political process potential Member States, subject When Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence leading to European integration; provides overall coordi- to countries meeting conditions February 17, 2008, it remained the prerogative of nation for the combined EU presence in the country; including democratic and economic individual EU Member States to determine their and contributes to Kosovo's development of respect for reform, respect for human and relations with Kosovo, based on national practice human rights and fundamental freedoms. The EUSR minority rights, refugee return, and international law. Whether or not an EU country also works closely with the transitional administration regional cooperation, and good recognizes the newly independent government has of the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). neighborly relations. little bearing on the dedicated EU drive to help guarantee peace and stability in Kosovo and the wider The third body, the European Union's Rule of Law The SAp includes Stabilization Western Balkan region. Mission in Kosovo (EULEX) is the largest civilian and Association Agreements mission ever launched under ESDP. Its task is to assist (SAA)—contractual agreements The EU has been providing significant support to the Kosovo authorities in implementing the rule of law, tailored to and concluded with each Kosovo since 1999, when the UN Security Council particularly by helping develop an independent and country once sufficient reform has authorized a civilian and military presence there multi-ethnic justice system and police and customs been accomplished. All but Kosovo under UN authority. The international community service, and ensuring that these institutions are free have signed SAAs, and Croatia and divided up specific responsibilities: the UN (civil from political interference and adhere to internation- fYROM are already official candi- administration), the EU (reconstruction), the UN ally-recognized standards and best practices. date countries. High Commissioner for Refugees (humanitarian aid), and the OSCE (institution building). By July 2008, EULEX had deployed 300 people, with | eufocus 7 | full operational capacity anticipated by late fall. Fully Present in Kosovo since June 1999, the UN-mandated, deployed, EULEX will consist of roughly 1,900 interna- NATO-led KFOR peacekeeping force (currently tional police officers, judges, prosecutors, and customs 15,900 troops) has been crucial in maintaining officials, supported by around 1,100 local staff. Initially security in support of wider international efforts to operating under the auspices of UNMIK, EULEX build peace and stability. EU Member States provide was established for 28 months, until June 15, 2010. more than 75 percent of the KFOR personnel. In addition to EU Member State personnel, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, and the U.S. have indicated that Renewed EU efforts in Kosovo build on earlier accom- they will contribute to the mission. plishments and include three main EU bodies operating in the country. The European Commission Liaison Office, in place since 2004, supports the Stabilization

Special Advertising Supplement EU Peacekeeping in the International Context United Nations EU Relations with Regional Actors: Keeping the Peace The EU approach to peacekeeping is closely modeled North Atlantic Treaty Organization on that of the UN, particularly as it has conformed NATO and the EU share common strategic inter- to the changing nature of conflict that is less about ests and frequently partner to prevent and resolve sovereign borders and more about human suffering. crises and armed conflicts in Europe and beyond. Since the signing of the landmark “NATO-EU UN peacekeepers In 1999, former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan Declaration on ESDP” in 2002, which paved the posed an important question: \"If humanitarian interven- way for the “Berlin Plus” arrangements that form \"The European Union has formed tion is, indeed, an unacceptable assault on sovereignty, the basis for practical work in crisis management a partnership with the UN to how should we respond to a Rwanda, to a Srebrenica—to between the two organizations, cooperation has work together in the area of crisis gross and systematic violations of human rights that increased dramatically. Twenty-one EU Member management…From the Balkans to the affect every precept of our common humanity?\" States are also members of NATO. Middle East, from Africa to Asia, the EU and the UN are working effectively An independent report (\"Responsibility to Protect\") African Union together on the ground under some of presented to the UN suggests that sovereign states In 2007, the EU and the African Union (AU) adopted the most difficult circumstances.\" have a responsibility to protect their own citizens the Joint Africa-EU Strategy and an action plan involv- from avoidable catastrophe—from mass murder, ing eight partnerships in areas including peace and —Javier Solana, rape, and starvation—but when they are unwilling security, democratic governance, and human rights. EU High Representative for Common or unable to do so, that responsibility must be borne by the broader community of states. The new intercontinental agreement aims to establish Foreign and Security Policy a robust peace and security architecture in Africa; With its universal mandate and legitimacy, the UN promote good governance and human rights; and is uniquely placed to advance global solutions to create opportunities for shaping global governance common challenges. Since the end of the Cold War in an open and multilateral framework. and the ensuing explosion of local crises and conflicts, UN peacekeeping missions have more than doubled Since 2003, the EU has also managed the African Peace in number compared to the organization's first forty Facility (APF), designed to provide the AU and other years, and the EU has followed the UN lead. regional organizations with the resources to mount effective peacemaking and peacekeeping operations. EU Focus is published bi-monthly Over the past five years, the EU has significantly From its start through 2010, the EU is providing more by the Delegation of the European increased its operational contribution to interna- than €550 million in funding for the APF. Commission to the United States. tional crisis management. Through autonomous and UN Security Council-mandated ESDP opera- On the Web Anthony Smallwood tions in locales such as the Democratic Republic EU Common Foreign and Security Policy Spokesman and Head of Press of Congo, Chad/Central African Republic, and the http://ec.europa.eu/external_relations/cfsp/intro Western Balkans, the EU helps lessen the burden on & Public Diplomacy UN peacekeeping capacities that are stretched close European Security and Defense Policy Editor-in-Chief to the limit. http://www.consilium.europa.eu/esdp Stacy Hope According to the European Security Strategy, Election Observation Editor \"Strengthening the United Nations, equipping it to http://ec.europa.eu/external_relations/ fulfill its responsibilities and to act effectively, is a human_rights/intro Melinda Stevenson European priority.\" In addition to its on-the-ground Writer/Assistant Editor presence through ESDP operations, the EU is one of Western Balkans and Enlargement Process the most significant donors to UN operations, funding http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement ISSN: 1830-5067 almost 40 percent of the UN budget, 20 percent of UN Catalogue No.: IQ-AA-08-06-EN-C peacekeeping operations, and approximately half of UN member states' contributions to the organiza- Delegation of the European tion's funds and programs. Commission to the United States 2300 M Street, NW Washington, DC 20037 202.862.9500 www.eurunion.org For further information: http://www.eurunion.org/eufocus email:[email protected] | 8 eufocus |

The Responsibility to Protect Ending Mass Atrocity Crimes Once and for All Gareth Evans 340 pp., cloth, 978-0-8157-2504-6, $29.95 G_fe\\1 /''$,*.$,+/. fi +('$,(-$-0,- =Xo1 +('$,(-$-00/ Difficult Transitions 8mX`cXYc\\ Xk pfli cfZXc Yffbjkfi\\ fi fi[\\i fec`e\\ Xk Foreign Policy Troubles at the n n n% Y i f f b ` e ^ j % \\ [ l &g i \\ j j Outset of Presidential Power Kurt M. Campbell & James B. Steinberg 225 pp., cloth, 978-0-8157-1340-1, $26.95 The Search for al Qaeda Its Leadership, Ideology, and Future Bruce Riedel A Saban Center book 180 pp., cloth, 978-0-8157-7414-3, $26.95 Winning Turkey How America, Europe, and Turkey Can Revive a Fading Partnership Philip H. Gordon & Omer Taspinar Afterword by Soli Ozel 125 pp., paper, 978-0-8157-3215-0, $18.95 Axis of Convenience Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics Bobo Lo Copublished with Chatham House 300 pp., cloth, 978-0-8157-5340-7, $32.95 Global Development 2.0 Can Philanthropists, the Public, and the Poor Make Poverty History? Lael Brainard & Derek Chollet, eds. 150 pp., paper, 978-0-8157-1393-7, $22.95

IN countries. Zara, BOX which is responsi- Fashion Forward ble for two thirds W hen Inditex, the parent company of the company’s of Spanish retailer Zara, over- took the Gap in sales earlier this year, revenue, attributes it won the title of world’s largest clothing retailer. It’s an improbable its success largely to achievement for Inditex, which has utterly defied retail orthodoxy since its revolution of the the first Zara store opened its doors in northwest Spain in 1975. Its unique retail timeline. Typ- business model—which uses little to no advertising, sends clothes from the ically, stores like the drawing board to the store rack in mere days, and introduces an astound- Gap and J. Crew ing 22,000 product lines each year (most retail giants don’t break the low order most of their thousands)—has made Zara the envy of the high street. styles six months in Last year, Inditex sold $13.9 billion in advance. By con- clothing—15 percent more than in 2006—in nearly 4,000 stores in 70 trast, Zara creates more than half its stock in season, when the company Dressed to kill the competition: Zara delivers fashion at warp speed. can react to current fashion whims. It’s known as fast fash- distinctive local supply chain. Whereas ion. “Seeing an item in a disco in Tokyo most global retailers outsource the bulk to putting it in a [Zara] window in of their production to Asia, Zara pro- Milan takes 15 to 30 days,” says José duces most of its styles close to home— Luis Nueno, professor of marketing at in Morocco, Portugal, Spain, and the iese Business School in Barcelona. Turkey—allowing its biggest European At its fastest, the company can send its stores to receive shipments practically designers to a Madonna concert one overnight. The company has been able night, says Nueno, and have the singer’s to “adapt the product to market . . . styles “in the windows earlier than the and [to] the unpredictability of next concert.” With that kind of turn- demand,” says Tony Shiret, a retail around time, Zara won’t make any analyst at Credit Suisse. “They’ve money, but “it’s a psychological war changed the way people buy in with the competition,” says Nueno. “It Europe.” And with the company setting hurts the [competition’s] morale.” its sights on expanding its footprint in The ability to deliver high fashion at Asia and the United States, there may lightning speed stems from the company’s be little reason to mind the Gap. The Globalization of MARTYRDOM 104 353 Laoss Egypt Italy SSyyrriiaa Uzbekistan Suicide terrorism has truly gone global. According to data compiled by Assaf Moghadam, a SSoommaoliliaa terrorism expert at West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center, not only have the number of Iraq suicide attacks around the world reached unprecedented heights in recent years, but the terror Indonesia Moldova 127 tactic has spread to the far corners of the Earth with deadly effect. Afghanistan Serbia Saudi Arabia Iraq Algeria 71 China Afghanistan SSoommaolliiaa 54 TTuunnisisiaia Russia Iraq Fiinnllaand Turkey Key: 37 AAffgghhaanniissttaann Indoonneessiiaa Pakistan Saudi Arabia Afghanistan 0 India # of suicide attacks CChhiinnaa UnUnitietedd SSttaatteess Israel China China worldwide Sri Lanka Yemen Yemen Country afflicted 20 16 YYeemmen Saudi Arabia China 2004 11 TTuurrkkeeyy TTaannzzaanniiaa RRussssiiaa Russia Yemen Turkey Russia PPaannaammaa Pakistan Kenya India Turkey Russia Pakistan Turkey 3 2 Israel Israel Turkey Pakistan Israel Kenya India Pakistan Argentina Lebanon Israel Israel India Pakistan Lebanon Argentina Israel Israel Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Israel Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2006 2008* CORBIS *Through August 21 28 F o r e i g n P o l i c y

This Is Your Building a brighter, brainier army cer- You Can No Brain on War tainly isn’t the only goal. The U.S. Longer Argue... military is also interested in applications Could pills one day replace bullets that impair its enemies’ performance. …that immigrants vote more often than in an army’s arsenal? It might These could range from neural-imaging native-born U.S. citizens. sound like science fiction, but thanks technologies that tell interrogators when to new advances in pharmaceuticals a prisoner is lying, to aerosols that NATIVE BORN and neuroscience, the next genera- destroy an adversary’s will to fight or FOREIGN BORN tion of conflict may indeed move drugs that alter their moods, even from the battlefield to the brain. increasing their trust as they are attacked. It might seem intuitive that people who That’s according to a recent report go through the process of becoming U.S. commissioned by the U.S. Defense And when it comes to laying the citizens will vote in greater proportions Intelligence Agency to map the future groundwork for this future mind war- than those born with the right. Not so. of cognitive warfare. fare, it’s the for-profit pharmaceutical Naturalized citizens vote at lower rates sector that often conducts the necessary than native-born citizens, and they do Combat in years to come, accord- research. Aging baby boomers in the not vote more frequently over time, ing to the report, will be dramatically United States are driving “a growing even as they become assimilated into influenced by breakthroughs in neuro- market for cognitive enhancers” that the U.S. population. science that can be adapted for defense can be adapted for military purposes, purposes. These developments might says Diane Griffin, a professor of micro- involve improving a soldier’s ability to biology at Johns Hopkins University process information with chemicals who also contributed to the report. that alter brain chemistry or comput- er hardware that interfaces directly Unfortunately, lax rules about human with the brain. “There’s the potential to experimentation in other countries could not only bring someone up to a certain mean that advances abroad might “par- level of function, but actually enhance allel or even outstrip the . . . work being their function, make them smarter or done in the West,” according to the study. faster than they would be otherwise,” The authors single out China and Iran as says Jonathan Moreno, an expert on potential foes in this brave new war, with neuroscience and warfare at the Cen- active programs in advanced neuro- ter for American Progress who worked science and keen state interests in military on the report. applications. On the battlefield, it seems, today’s firepower might not stand a chance against tomorrow’s brainpower. Epiphanies: Garry Kasparov DMITRY KOSTYUKOV/AFP/GETTY IMAGES I WAS ASKED at the press conference after a FOR MANY RUSSIANS, millions and millions of the school with kids and women—for me, that tournament I won in 1997 or 1998, ‘What them, 1991 was a disaster. Not that they had was the final call. else is left for you in the world of chess?’ any illusions about the Soviet Union, but they And I said that I have a son, who was born wanted change, they wanted democracy, they YOU SHOULD NOT BE MISTAKEN by the nice in 1996, and I want him to see his father win wanted freedom, they wanted better lives, and suits, the jets, the luxury yachts. [Putin and the a big chess tournament. At the end of 2004, instead they got a lot of horsesh*t. oligarchs] are different and they will always hate I played the Russian national championship. you. The question is whether they will mix this [My son] was already 8, and I won very I BECAME GRADUALLY, NOT EVEN ANGRY, hate with fear or with contempt. So far, the latter. but ashamed at the events in my country. I convincingly. At the recognized that I had a very tough choice: fight [THE OPPOSITION IN RUSSIA] has no long-term closing ceremony, this regime or leave my country. Because seeing strategy. We are struggling to survive day to day. I got my gold this bunch of criminals destroying the future of medal and put my country and doing nothing, I couldn’t bear it. I REMEMBER one of the guards followed me to the it around his roof [of the jail] where I was walking, and he asked neck. And THE FINAL MOMENT that shaped this decision me, ‘How is it that a man of great glory like you that was it. was the Beslan [school massacre]. After I saw has ended up in jail?’ And I said, ‘In Russia, people the tragedy at Beslan, I recognized that it was are in jail for two things: for murder or for truth.’ coldblooded murder, premeditated by Putin and Garry Kasparov, a chess grandmaster, is a his gang. The fact that the Kremlin, with democracy activist in Russia. no hesitation, ordered to burn down [ ]For More Online Read more of Kasparov’s Epiphanies, like what he thinks could ruin Putin, at ForeignPolicy.com/extras/kasparov. N ov e m b e r | D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 8 29

[ ]In Box Development’s the Brookings Institution and Great Depression author of the study, explains If your paycheck fluctuated unpre- dictably from year to year, you’d that U.S. aid is most prone to probably have a hard time planning for the future. That’s exactly the predica- volatility because the funds ment many countries that receive inter- national aid face. When Bono throws a are discretionary at the exec- series of global concerts or a disaster strikes, aid can post a banner year. But utive level. “If [a U.S. admin- when donations dry up due to unmet conditions or a U.S. dollar in free fall, the istration] decide[s] they like drop in official development assistance is often devastating to poor countries. somebody, they can ramp up Just how painful are these shocks? A aid very quickly, and if they recent study of aid volatility during the past four decades finds that fluctua- decide they don’t like some- tions in aid have produced income shocks in developing countries just as Heavy burden: Aid shocks cause instability in poor nations. body, they cut it off very rap- large as and more frequent than those that developed countries experienced idly,” says Kharas. during the two world wars and the Great Depression, when gdp per capita well off if they had received billions of One way to reduce volatility is for plunged 15 percent or more. In fact, the study found that the unpredictabil- dollars less each year, as long as the countries to commit stable amounts of ity of aid leads to an overall loss of 15 to 20 percent of the total aid sent, mean- flow of money had remained steady. aid over a multiyear time frame—say, ing countries would have been just as Sharp swings in aid often lead to dra- $50 million a year for three years. Britain matic changes in poor countries’ fiscal already has multiyear financing in place, spending. In Kenya, official develop- and the aid arm of the European Union ment assistance for the health sector is considering it. Bringing a little more wavered from $91 million in 2000 to stability to the world’s most fragile coun- $17 million in 2002 to $147 million in tries seems like the least donors could do. 2005 to $111 million in 2006. As a result of these swings, health clinics had FOR THE FIRST TIME to be closed and large numbers of doc- tors and staff were laid off. One billion personal Some rich donors are guiltier than oth- computers are in use ers for the volatility. The United States is around the world. the most unpredictable donor, whereas Scandinavian countries are the most con- sistent. Homi Kharas, a senior fellow at Are you a globalization junkie? Test your knowledge of global trends, TOP: ZOHRA BENSEMRA/REUTERS; MIDDLE: ISTOCKPHOTO.COM economics, and politics with 8 questions about how the world works. BOTTOM, CLOCKWISE FROM TOP LEFT: ISTOCKPHOTO.COM, ISTOCKPHOTO.COM, ISTOCKPHOTO.COM, ISTOCKPHOTO.COM, GETTY IMAGES 1 What percentage of 5 Which country, after the United States and NBA players were born Britain, has the most troops in Iraq? outside the United States? Australia 8 percent Poland 16 percent South Korea 24 percent 2 Which country has the highest proportion 6 How many people have been put on trial of its population on Facebook? before the International Criminal Court? Canada Egypt France 0 5 15 3 Which country has the most 7 Which country is the largest owner of journalists in jail? U.S. federal government debt? China Britain China Japan Cuba Iran 8 What is the most expensive street in the world for property? 4 In which of these countries do academics earn the Avenue Princesse Grace, Monaco highest income relative to the national average? Severn Road, Hong Kong Fifth Avenue, New York City China India South Africa For the answers, turn to page 92. 30 F o r e i g n P o l i c y









“All the great things are simple, and many can be expressed in a single word: freedom, justice, honor, duty, mercy, hope. ” —Sir Winston Churchill INSPIRED BY LEADERS OF THE PAST EDUCATING LEADERS OF THE FUTURE TheElliottSchoolof InternationalAffairs | Asian Studies | European and Eurasian Studies | International Affairs | International Development Studies | | International Science and Technology Policy | International Trade and Investment Policy | | Latin American and Hemispheric Studies | Middle East Studies | Security Policy Studies | www.elliott.gwu.edu

THINK AGAIN By John L. Allen Jr. The Catholic Church From the outside, the Vatican appears resistant to change and tone-deaf to scandal. But, in truth, the world’s oldest religious institution bears little resemblance to the mysterious church imagined by conspiracy theorists. Today, Catholicism is attracting millions of new and diverse followers who are embracing the church’s traditions of debate and independence as gospel. “The Catholic Church Is Shrinking” No. Whether it is the global shortage of priests, the century, from 1.9 million to 130 million. The Democratic Republic of the Congo today has the same number of empty pews in former Catholic strongholds, or the Catholics as Austria and Germany put together. India has slew of sex abuse scandals, it might seem as though more Catholics than Canada and Ireland combined. the modern Catholic Church is in decline. In fact, the church is in the midst of the greatest period of growth What’s happening is not that Catholicism is shrinking, in its 2,000-year history. The world’s Catholic popu- but rather, its demographic center of gravity is shift- lation grew from 266 million in 1900 to 1.1 billion ing. What was once a largely homogenous religion, in 2000, an increase of 314 percent. By comparison, concentrated in Europe and North America, is now a the world population last century grew by 263 per- truly universal faith. In 1900, just 25 percent of cent. The church didn’t just hitch a ride on the baby Catholics lived in the developing world; today that fig- boom; it successfully attracted new converts. ure is 66 percent and climbing. In a few decades, the new centers of theological thought will no longer be Yes, Catholicism is getting smaller in Europe, and it Paris and Milan, but Nairobi and Manila. would be losing ground in the United States, too, were it not for immigration, especially among Hispanics. A Today, fertility rates are falling across much of the recent Pew Forum study found that fully 10 percent of developing world, so it’s unlikely Catholicism can Americans are ex-Catholics. These declines, however, maintain the 20th century’s spectacular gains during the have been more than offset by growth in Africa, Asia, and next 100 years. In parts of Latin America, Africa, and Latin America. In sub-Saharan Africa alone, the number Asia, Catholicism is being outpaced by its competitors, of Catholics grew a staggering 6,700 percent in the past especially fast-growing evangelical and Pentecostal churches. Still, the single biggest challenge facing the John L. Allen Jr. is senior correspondent for the National Catholic Church is not coping with decline, but rather, Catholic Reporter and senior Vatican analyst for CNN. managing the transition to a multicultural faith. 32 F o r e i g n P o l i c y

The church at a crossroads: The Vatican must strike an often uneasy balance between change and tradition. “Catholicism Is Right Wing” ALESSANDRA BENEDETTI/CORBIS Only in part. It depends on your definition of Even the official positions of the church would hardly draw a clean bill of health from secular con- “right wing,” and, for that matter, of the church. It’s true servatives. The late Pope John Paul ii was the leading that the institutional structures of Catholicism are moral critic of both U.S.-led Gulf wars. Pope Benedict instinctively conservative. In the 19th century, Pope xvi has denounced the “false promise” of American- Gregory xvi actually blocked construction of railroads style free market capitalism and has emerged as an elo- and gas lighting in the Papal States for fear of where quent environmentalist. Meanwhile, the Catholic such “unnatural” innovations might lead. It’s also true Church is officially anti-death penalty, anti-arms trade, that on controversial issues such as abortion, same- pro-United Nations, and pro-immigrant—stances sex marriage, and embryonic stem cell research, official anathema to many on the right. Catholic positions stand solidly with the cultural right. Bishops and theologians insist that, given the full Yet the church has always been more than its range of Catholic social doctrine, the church isn’t com- hierarchy, and grass-roots sentiment is anything but patible with any secular alliance. John Carr, a veteran uniform. The United States offers a case in point. staffer for the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, calls American Catholics were historically Democrats, Catholicism “politically homeless.” In the nine U.S. and despite aggressive efforts by conservatives since presidential elections between 1972 and 2004, a the Reagan era to court them, there’s still a sizeable majority of U.S. Catholics voted for a Republican in five liberal Catholic constituency. As proof, most opin- and a Democrat in four. Whether it’s a matter of official ion polls taken in the run-up to the 2008 presiden- teaching or rank-and-file opinion, the Catholic Church tial election showed Catholics evenly divided is hardly the American Republican Party at prayer. between Barack Obama and John McCain. N ov e m b e r | D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 8 33

[ ]Think Again “The Church Is Filthy Rich” Not really, though it’s certainly not poor. Around the world, dioceses and parishes are some- times large landowners, and the church operates a Anyone who has ever stood in St. Peter’s Square in vast network of schools, hospitals, and social service Rome and watched a prince of the church (the col- centers. That infrastructure can generate some loquial name for a Catholic cardinal) emerge from impressive-sounding numbers. In 2001, the annual a black Mercedes sporting Vatican license plates revenue of Catholic programs in the United States could understandably find pleas of tough times came to $102 billion. Yet most of these programs hard to swallow. either barely break even or operate in the red, in part because they often serve low-income and minority Yet the wealth of the Catholic Church is usually populations. Outside Europe and the United States, exaggerated. The Vatican, for example, is rumored most dioceses and parishes get by on shoestring bud- to be swimming in loot, but its annual budget is less gets, to say nothing of missionaries who often live in than $400 million. For comparison, consider that desperate poverty in remote areas. Harvard University’s is more than $3 billion. The Vatican’s portfolio of stocks, bonds, and real estate Catholics—from the pope on down—routinely comes to roughly $1 billion. For a slightly whim- suggest that the church should adopt greater “sim- sical frame of reference, Forbes estimates that plicity,” and it’s eminently fair to expect any organi- Oprah Winfrey, all by herself, is worth $2.5 billion. zation that demands justice for the poor to practice The great artistic treasures of the Vatican, such as what it preaches. Popular images of bags of cash Michelangelo’s Pietà, are literally priceless; they’re stockpiled in the church basement, however, are mis- listed on Vatican books at a value of 1 euro each leading. They simply aren’t there. because they can never be sold or borrowed against. “The Church Never Changes” False. The reality isn’t that the church never changes, [ limbo, a special antechamber in the afterlife for unbaptized babies. but that it never admits to having changed. Catholics who have been around the block know that whenev- Apologists may argue that what changed in such er someone in authority begins a sentence with, “As the cases were the historical circumstances, not the under- church has always taught…,” some long-standing idea lying principles. But in any event, something impor- or practice is about to be turned on its head. tant gave way. Typically, mounting pressure from below eventually erupts to cause a breakthrough, as For example, the church once regarded lending happened during the Second Vatican Council in the money for interest as the sin of usury, which is not mid-1960s. In a flash, Mass was celebrated in ver- dogma today. Or consider that when popes were nacular languages rather than Latin, Catholicism also civil rulers, they put criminals to death; visitors went from being critical of religious liberty to a to Rome can drop by the Criminology Museum to see champion of human rights, and Protestant “heretics” a perfectly preserved papal guillotine, a gift from became “separated brethren.” Napoleon. Today, of course, the Catholic Church is a leader in global anti-death penalty campaigns. That’s not to suggest that everything is up for More recently, Pope Benedict xvi set aside belief in grabs. A future pope is not going to teach that Jesus didn’t exist, that he wasn’t the divine Son of God, or [For More Online that the bread and wine used in the Catholic Mass The Vatican changes its mind from time to time. Read do not really become the body and blood of Christ. about the church’s five most drastic doctrinal reversals The Catholic story is always a blend of continuity and at: ForeignPolicy.com/extras/churchreversals. change. The hard part is anticipating what might change—and when. 34 F o r e i g n P o l i c y

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[ ]Think Again “The Vatican Is Cloaked in Secrecy” Not quite. Actually, the Vatican is far less Latin Mass. By the time it appeared, however, the story was anticlimactic because the content of the rul- secretive than most other institutions with a global ing had been leaked to the press months in advance reach—the U.S. government, say, or Coca-Cola. and subjected to exhaustive scrutiny. The Vatican doesn’t collect imagery from spy satellites, and it’s not obsessed with protecting the The problem with the Vatican is less its secre- design of high-tech weapons. It has no trade cy than its utter singularity. It is unlike any other secrets, no R&D, and no sales plans to keep away institution one could encounter, with its own his- from prying eyes. As a result, far more of the tory, language, and rhythms. If you don’t know Vatican’s business is conducted in full public view the difference between Jesuit and Dominican views than outsiders might imagine. on grace in the 16th century, for example, or between a surplice and a surplus, you’re often Nor is the Vatican very good at keeping secrets going to find conversations inside the Vatican ter- even when it tries. It’s a bureaucracy, after all, full of ribly hard to understand. Or, if you don’t know that opinionated, strong-willed people. Sooner or later, the under secretary in most offices is the person most things leak out. (There is a famous saying that who does the real work, it can be tough to follow Rome is a city in which everything is a mystery, and the bouncing ball of church business. The trick to nothing is a secret.) In the summer of 2007, Pope figuring out the Vatican is mastering its culture. Do Benedict xvi issued a long-awaited ruling giving that, and the veil of secrecy usually lifts quickly. priests expanded permission for celebration of the old “Catholicism Is Obsessed with Sex” No, you are. Prior to the sexual revolution The fact of the matter is that teachings on sex and gender are contested even within the church itself. of the 1960s, most people would have found the Polls show that solid majorities of Catholics, at least idea that Catholicism is prudish to be deeply odd. in the United States, disagree with official church The old rap on Catholics was that they were far positions on matters such as contraception, in vitro too given to the pleasures of the flesh, especially fertilization, and whether priests should be allowed sex and booze, in contrast with the more to marry. Narrower majorities favor the ordination abstemious Protestants. As the Catholic poet of women to the priesthood and oppose outright Hilaire Belloc once wrote, “Wherever the bans on abortion. And while life issues will be a Catholic sun doth shine, there’s always laughter major factor for many American Catholics as they and good red wine.” When critics today blast decide on a presidential candidate, social justice Catholicism for its “puritanical” positions, one issues, such as assistance for struggling families and imagines actual Puritans, who despised the immigration reform, are often just as important. As Church of Rome and its moral laxity, rolling over with most matters, Catholic opinion is far more in their graves. diverse—and tolerant—than is often understood. Since the 1960s, however, Catholicism has been If the obsession with sex lies anywhere, it’s with drawn into one public controversy after another on popular culture, not the church. During the first year the so-called pelvic issues—such as gay rights, gen- of his papacy, Benedict xvi actually used the word der roles, the family, abortion, contraception, arti- “Africa” four times more often than he did “sex,” yet ficial insemination, and other hotly debated points it was a lone Vatican document barring gays from the of sexual ethics. Catholic teachings that once struck priesthood that dominated news headlines. The inter- the average person as moderate or even permissive, section of sex and religion simply sells well, and it is such as encouraging large families, have come to not quite fair to blame the church for that. seem positively antiquated to most observers. 36 F o r e i g n P o l i c y

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[ ]Think Again “The Church Is Ultra-Hierarchical” Not really. Catholicism has a clear chain of ordered the archbishop of Milwaukee to halt the renovation of his cathedral because it didn’t command, which makes it fairly unusual among approve of the design. The archbishop replied that modern religions. (Ever ponder the question of he was the one paying the contractors, so Rome who’s in charge of Judaism or Islam?) The church’s could mind its own business. Code of Canon Law assigns the pope “supreme, full, immediate, and universal ordinary power.” Even within the Vatican, offices operate quite That hierarchical structure fuels perceptions that independently of one another. Sometimes Rome’s left Catholicism is run almost exclusively from the top hand really does not know, or does not approve of, down. In practice, however, Catholicism is actually what its right hand is doing. During the John Paul ii a rather loose, decentralized operation. years, for example, the pope’s own master of cere- monies often designed papal Masses that ignored The Roman Curia, the central administrative changes from the Vatican’s office of liturgical policy. bureaucracy of the church, has a workforce of 2,700 And anyone who has paid close attention to shifting officials to manage the affairs of more than 1.1 bil- Vatican responses to the sex abuse crisis has likely lion Catholics. If the same ratio of bureaucrats to come away with an impression of internal incoherence citizens were applied to the U.S. government, around rather than tight control from the top. 700 people would be on the federal payroll. In other words, the Vatican doesn’t have the tools to micro- The reality of the church is probably best manage except in the rarest of cases. This isn’t expressed by the old quip that Catholicism is “an Wal-Mart, where the temperature setting in stores absolute monarchy tempered by selective disobedi- thousands of miles apart is determined by a computer ence.” Behind the local independence and the shift- at corporate headquarters in Bentonville, Arkansas. ing responses to scandal, there is nearly always an impressive degree of spirited debate. As the church Furthermore, Catholicism is not a massive hold- grows more diverse, this tradition of dialogue and ing corporation. The assets of dioceses around the deliberation will be even more critical to its future. world belong not to the pope but to the bishops, Popes and practices will change, but the bedrock of and that can give them considerable autonomy in the faith will likely remain strong and flexible. administrative matters. In 2001, for example, Rome [ ]Want to Know More? For an authoritative look at the Vatican’s culture, read John L. Allen Jr.’s All the Pope’s Men (New York: Doubleday, 2004). His forthcoming The Future Church: How Ten Trends Are Revolutionizing the Catholic Church (New York: Doubleday, 2009) explores the issues that will rock the church in the coming years. The classic Inside the Vatican: The Politics and Organization of the Catholic Church (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1996), by Jesuit priest and political scientist Thomas J. Reese, is an indispensable guide to the church’s traditions and modern bureaucracy. Philip Jenkins analyzes the global demographic shift affecting not just Catholicism but all Christian faiths, in The Next Christendom: The Coming of Global Christianity (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002). Catholic Bishop Geoffrey Robinson spoke with Foreign Policy about his denunciation of the church after almost 25 years in “Talking Sex and Power in the Catholic Church” (ForeignPolicy.com, August 2008). R. Scott Appleby explains why future popes must reach out to the Islamic world and take a crash course in economics in “Job Description for the Next Pope” (Foreign Policy, January/February 2004). »For links to relevant Web sites, access to the FP Archive, and a comprehensive index of related Foreign Policy articles, go to ForeignPolicy.com. 38 F o r e i g n P o l i c y

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PRIME NUMBERS Change Is in the Air More airlines around the world have gone belly up this year than in the aftermath of September 11. Air- lines have simply met their match in the high price of oil. Nothing short of a complete overhaul of the industry—fewer carriers, fewer flights, and far higher prices—will keep the world flying. | By William Swelbar 40 F o r e i g n P o l i c y

N ov e m b e r | D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 8 41



America’s Hard Sell For more than half a century, the United States ensured that five Big Ideas shaped international politics. Now, as the Big Ideas of the 21st century are formed, just who will corner the new global market of ideology is anyone’s guess. One thing is certain, though: If the United States wants to remain a player, it’s going to have to refine its sales pitch.| By Bruce W. Jentleson and Steven Weber ILLUSTRATIONS BY SHOUT FOR FP A lthough their presidencies had little These presidents basically had it right. For most in common, George H.W. Bush, Bill of the second half of the 20th century, five Big Clinton, and George W. Bush all Ideas shaped world politics: spoke about the world from essen- tially the same starting point. In a time of sole- 1) Peace is better than war. superpower dominance, most of the world had 2) Hegemony, at least the benign sort, seemingly come to understand that the utility of mil- itary force was on the decline. Free markets were is better than a balance of power. ascendant, creating wealth and contributing to the 3) Capitalism is better than socialism. growing sense that a wave of democratic transition 4) Democracy is better than dictatorship. was inevitable. Mobile phones and the Internet 5) Western culture is better than all were spreading elements of Western culture and behavior to a global population that was ready, the rest. even eager, to receive and assimilate them. On all five counts, the United States was widely seen Bruce W. Jentleson is professor of public policy studies and as paragon and guarantor. American power brought political science at Duke University. Steven Weber is professor peace through a combination of Cold War containment of political science and director of the Institute of International and deterrence. A United Nations was constructed Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. largely according to American designs. American hege- mony brought relative security and laid the foundation for progressively more open trade and capital markets. N ov e m b e r | D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 8 43

[ ]America’s Hard Sell American capitalism taught the world how to create [ administration. Nor is it the case that our interna- unprecedented wealth. American democracy inspired tional institutions are simply in need of remodeling people around the world to change their relationships or refurbishment to reflect the shift in power and with political authority. And American culture became wealth across the globe. Rather, the rules have a magnet for the world’s youth. changed, and the biggest and most basic questions of world politics are open for debate once again. Today, the prevailing consensus in the United States is that these five Big Ideas still hold. A vari- Of course, peace is still better than war. Unless, ety of intellectual formulations have sprung up—the as some governments will profess, war is wielded as end of history, the democratic peace, the indispens- an instrument of national policy, as was the case with able nation, the Rome-like empire—which, despite the United States in Iraq, Russia in Georgia, Ethiopia their differences, share the core belief that these in Somalia, Israel in Lebanon, and others to come. fundamentals have not changed. Even the latest But does peace remain superior if states want to spate of books about the second or post-American prevent the killing of people in Darfur, end the world end up in the same place, accepting that the malign neglect in the aftermath of a natural disas- same five assumptions will still form the basis for the ter in Burma, or head off a pandemic incubating present and future world order. within someone else’s borders? With authority more contested and power more diffuse, what are the Unfortunately, they will not. The five Big Ideas of rules for going to war and keeping the peace? the past century are no longer the sound and sturdy guides they once were. The challenge runs far deeper And who makes them? Hegemony, benign or oth- than the bad atmospherics created by the Bush erwise, is no longer an option—not for the United States, not for China, not for anyone. A 21st-century [Ask the Author version of a 19th-century multipolar world is hardly Have questions for Bruce Jentleson and Steven possible, either. There are too many players at too Weber? Send them to [email protected] by many tables for counting and balancing poles of power. Dec. 1, and we’ll post their answers on Dec. 5 at Although some players still matter more than others, ForeignPolicy.com/extras/jentlesonweber. more players matter more deeply than ever before. Nonstate actors—from the Gates Foundation to 44 F o r e i g n P o l i c y