Learning Generation e-Book

An e-Book by The International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity

Education is the civil rights struggle of our generation Today the world is facing a global learning crisis: over a quarter of a billion children worldwide are out of school and millions more are in school but failing to learn the basics. be left without the skills they need to fully participate in society and employment Without immediate action, HALF of the world's 1.6 billion children and youth will by 2030. This e-book draws upon the Education Commission's groundbreaking report The Learning Generation: Investing in education for a changing world and takes you through its plan to get all children and youth in school and learning within a generation. If all countries accelerate progress to match the world’s top 25% fastest education improvers, we can achieve the largest expansion of educational opportunity in history (Click here to view more information). The content is structured around the Commission's call for world leaders to commit to four education transformations: strengthening performance, fostering innovation, prioritizing inclusion, and increasing finance. Dive in and help us create the Learning Generation.

Education is the civil rights struggle of our generation Today the world is facing a global learning crisis: over a quarter of a billion children worldwide are out of school and millions more are in school but failing to learn the basics. be left without the skills they need to fully participate in society and employment Without immediate action, HALF of the world's 1.6 billion children and youth will by 2030. This e-book draws upon the Education Commission's groundbreaking report The Learning Generation: Investing in education for a changing world and takes you through its plan to get all children and youth in school and learning within a generation. If all countries accelerate progress to match the world’s top 25% fastest education improvers, we can achieve the largest expansion of educational opportunity in history (Click here to view more information). The content is structured around the Commission's call for world leaders to commit to four education transformations: strengthening performance, fostering innovation, prioritizing inclusion, and increasing finance. Dive in and help us create the Learning Generation.

CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 Creating a Learning Generation 1 CHAPTER 2 Performance: Reforming education system 11 CHAPTER 3 Innovation: Investing in new approaches 23 CHAPTER 4 Inclusion: Targeting efforts and resources 35 CHAPTER 5 Finance: Increasing and improving financing 45 CHAPTER 6 Agenda for action 57

CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 Creating a Learning Generation 1 CHAPTER 2 Performance: Reforming education system 11 CHAPTER 3 Innovation: Investing in new approaches 23 CHAPTER 4 Inclusion: Targeting efforts and resources 35 CHAPTER 5 Finance: Increasing and improving financing 45 CHAPTER 6 Agenda for action 57

Chapter 1 THE UNFOLDING LEARNING CRISIS Today's generation of young people faces a radically changing world. Up to half of the world's job - around 2 billion - are at high risk of disappearing due 1 to automation and new technologies in the coming decades. As the nature of work within industries changes, demand for high-level skills will grow and many low-and medium-skilled jobs will become obsolete. Jobs open to those 2 without high-level skills will often be insecure and poorly paid. Only quality education for all children can generate the needed skills, prevent worsening inequality, and provide a prosperous future for all. <A global learning crisis: The expected learning outcomes of the cohort of children and youth who are of school age in 2030> Low-income countries Middle-income countries High-income countries 8% 8% 21% 23% 22% 49% 69% 30% 70% 264 million school age children 1142 million school age 198 million school age children by expected children by expected by expected learning outcomes learning outcomes learning outcomes Will not learn basic Will learn basic primary Will learn minimum primary level skills level skills only secondary level skills Source: Education Commission projections (2016) 1 2 28

Chapter 1 THE UNFOLDING LEARNING CRISIS Today's generation of young people faces a radically changing world. Up to half of the world's job - around 2 billion - are at high risk of disappearing due 1 to automation and new technologies in the coming decades. As the nature of work within industries changes, demand for high-level skills will grow and many low-and medium-skilled jobs will become obsolete. Jobs open to those 2 without high-level skills will often be insecure and poorly paid. Only quality education for all children can generate the needed skills, prevent worsening inequality, and provide a prosperous future for all. <A global learning crisis: The expected learning outcomes of the cohort of children and youth who are of school age in 2030> Low-income countries Middle-income countries High-income countries 8% 8% 21% 23% 22% 49% 69% 30% 70% 264 million school age children 1142 million school age 198 million school age children by expected children by expected by expected learning outcomes learning outcomes learning outcomes Will not learn basic Will learn basic primary Will learn minimum primary level skills level skills only secondary level skills Source: Education Commission projections (2016) 1 2 28

Chapter 1 Chapter 1 Where we are today? If current trends continue, hundreds of millions of children and young people will be denied an education at a time when learning matters more to their life Access to Education: Progress made but big challenges remain 3 outcomes than ever before. The numbers are alarming. Today, 263 million In the last 15 years, the number of children in poor countries. Today, an estimated 67 percent children are out of school , and millions more are in school but failing to learn preschool, primary, and secondary school has of children are completing primary school in low- 4 the basics. In low - and middle - income countries, only half of primary school- increased globally, by 20 percent or 243 million income countries and 88 percent are doing so in aged children and little more than a quarter of secondary school-aged children students from 1,224 billion in 2000 to 1,467 lower-middle income countries. In high income billion in 2013. In spite of this progress, 61 countries, it is 99 percent. Just 24 percent of are learning basic primary - and secondary - level skills. million primary-school aged children - 10 percent children are completing secondary school in of all children in low and lower middle income low-income countries and just 50 percent in countries - and 202 million secondary-school lower-middle income countries. In high-income <Education for a new global reality> aged children are out of school today. Population countries it is 76 percent. Just 11 percent youth and unless education growth has made it more difficult to get all in low-income countries attend some form of By 2050: systems can respond: children into school; the number of primary out- post-secondary education (including vocational of-school children has increased by 7 percent and tertiary education), compared to average of Half of today’s jobs A major shortage will be replaced by of skilled workers since 2010 will continue to increase in many 80 percent in high-income countries. technology will stunt the global economy Learning: Too many children in school are not learning the basics New jobs will demand different Up to a quarter of New Commission research finds that the learning learning assessments that the Commission and higher-level the population in LICs crisis today is worse than was previously has used as a standard for learning, with the skills could still live in estimated. In low- and middle-income countries, remainder either not in school, not completing extreme poverty The population of only half of primary-school aged children (377 school or in school but not learning. Africa will double Income inequality million out of 611 million) and little more than a one in four primary-school aged children who to 2 billion; half will will increase, fueling be young people conflict and instability quarter of secondary-school aged children (194 are not learning the basics are not in school. But million out of 662 million) are on track to complete three out of four children who are not learning are Source: Education Commission projections (2016) primary/secondary school and on track to reach failing to achieve despite being in school. at the \"low\" learning levels on the international The scale of the problem is so big and progress so slow that if current trends Equity and inclusion: Large inequities exist within countries continue, by 2030, more than half of the world's 1.6 billion children will not be Twice as many girls as boys never start school. and middle-income countries with data, wealth- on track to achieve the basic secondary level skills needed for employment Sixty-three million out-of-school girls and boys related inequalities in primary completion rates and to fully participate in society. Of these, more than 400 million will not reach are living in conflict-affected areas. Children are getting worse. in these countries are 30 percent less likely to Gender, geography, family, and ethnic and primary-level skills and more than 200 million will not even be in school. These complete primary school and half as likely to cultural backgrounds, together with other factors, numbers are shocking and should compel all countries to act. complete lower-secondary school. compound the effects of poverty. Fewer than one Across low- and middle-income countries, there in 20 poor, rural girls in Sub-Saharan Africa are on Despite the enormous challenge, however, the Education Commission concludes is on average a 32 percent gap between the track to complete secondary school, seven times chances of children in the poorest quintile and less likely than non-poor, urban boys. that it is possible to make rapid progress. By analyzing countries' progress, in richest quintile completing primary school. For The Commission estimates that as many as half Improving access to education and learning outcomes, the Commission found those children who are in school, 54 percent of of the estimated 65 million primary and lower that it is possible to get all young people into school and learning within a the richest children learn the basics, while only 35 secondary-school age children with disabilities generation and to achieve the education Sustainable Development Goal (SDG). percent of the poorest do so. In 10 out of 25 low- in developing countries are out of school. Source: Education Commission projections (2016) 3 4

Chapter 1 Chapter 1 Where we are today? If current trends continue, hundreds of millions of children and young people will be denied an education at a time when learning matters more to their life Access to Education: Progress made but big challenges remain 3 outcomes than ever before. The numbers are alarming. Today, 263 million In the last 15 years, the number of children in poor countries. Today, an estimated 67 percent children are out of school , and millions more are in school but failing to learn preschool, primary, and secondary school has of children are completing primary school in low- 4 the basics. In low - and middle - income countries, only half of primary school- increased globally, by 20 percent or 243 million income countries and 88 percent are doing so in aged children and little more than a quarter of secondary school-aged children students from 1,224 billion in 2000 to 1,467 lower-middle income countries. In high income billion in 2013. In spite of this progress, 61 countries, it is 99 percent. Just 24 percent of are learning basic primary - and secondary - level skills. million primary-school aged children - 10 percent children are completing secondary school in of all children in low and lower middle income low-income countries and just 50 percent in countries - and 202 million secondary-school lower-middle income countries. In high-income <Education for a new global reality> aged children are out of school today. Population countries it is 76 percent. Just 11 percent youth and unless education growth has made it more difficult to get all in low-income countries attend some form of By 2050: systems can respond: children into school; the number of primary out- post-secondary education (including vocational of-school children has increased by 7 percent and tertiary education), compared to average of Half of today’s jobs A major shortage will be replaced by of skilled workers since 2010 will continue to increase in many 80 percent in high-income countries. technology will stunt the global economy Learning: Too many children in school are not learning the basics New jobs will demand different Up to a quarter of New Commission research finds that the learning learning assessments that the Commission and higher-level the population in LICs crisis today is worse than was previously has used as a standard for learning, with the skills could still live in estimated. In low- and middle-income countries, remainder either not in school, not completing extreme poverty The population of only half of primary-school aged children (377 school or in school but not learning. Africa will double Income inequality million out of 611 million) and little more than a one in four primary-school aged children who to 2 billion; half will will increase, fueling be young people conflict and instability quarter of secondary-school aged children (194 are not learning the basics are not in school. But million out of 662 million) are on track to complete three out of four children who are not learning are Source: Education Commission projections (2016) primary/secondary school and on track to reach failing to achieve despite being in school. at the \"low\" learning levels on the international The scale of the problem is so big and progress so slow that if current trends Equity and inclusion: Large inequities exist within countries continue, by 2030, more than half of the world's 1.6 billion children will not be Twice as many girls as boys never start school. and middle-income countries with data, wealth- on track to achieve the basic secondary level skills needed for employment Sixty-three million out-of-school girls and boys related inequalities in primary completion rates and to fully participate in society. Of these, more than 400 million will not reach are living in conflict-affected areas. Children are getting worse. in these countries are 30 percent less likely to Gender, geography, family, and ethnic and primary-level skills and more than 200 million will not even be in school. These complete primary school and half as likely to cultural backgrounds, together with other factors, numbers are shocking and should compel all countries to act. complete lower-secondary school. compound the effects of poverty. Fewer than one Across low- and middle-income countries, there in 20 poor, rural girls in Sub-Saharan Africa are on Despite the enormous challenge, however, the Education Commission concludes is on average a 32 percent gap between the track to complete secondary school, seven times chances of children in the poorest quintile and less likely than non-poor, urban boys. that it is possible to make rapid progress. By analyzing countries' progress, in richest quintile completing primary school. For The Commission estimates that as many as half Improving access to education and learning outcomes, the Commission found those children who are in school, 54 percent of of the estimated 65 million primary and lower that it is possible to get all young people into school and learning within a the richest children learn the basics, while only 35 secondary-school age children with disabilities generation and to achieve the education Sustainable Development Goal (SDG). percent of the poorest do so. In 10 out of 25 low- in developing countries are out of school. Source: Education Commission projections (2016) 3 4

Chapter 1 Chapter 1 Around one-third if the reductions in adult mortality since 1970 can be attributed to gains in education girls and young women. These benefits could be even higher in the future with the improvements in education quality and efficiency WHY INVEST NOW? proposed by the Commission. <Educating girls saved over 130 millin lives - Declines in mortality rates (per 1000) in low-and middle-income countries (1970-2010)> The case for investing in education is indisputable. Education is a fundamental Decline in mortality rates human right. It is critical for long-term economic growth and essential for the achievement of all of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. A 120% dollar invested in an additional year of schooling, particularly for girls, generates earnings and health benefits of $10 low-income countries and nearly $4 in lower-middle-income countries. 5 90 Percentage decline attributable to female schooling Percentage decline attributable <Education is the smartest investment -benefit-cost ratios are high> 60 to income growth For each $1 invested in an additional year of schooling… Percentage decline attributable to technological change Low Income Lower Middle Upper Middle 30 Countries Income Countries Income Countries 0 Earnings Under Five Female Male Increase $ 5 $ 3 $ 1 Source: Jamison and Schäferhoff (2016). Earnings Ultimately the value of education is increasing because it will determine whether & Health Benefits $ 10 $ 4 $ 2 the defining trends of this century - technological, economic, and demographic Increase - create opportunity or entrench inequality. Education is the common critical factor for successfully addressing the global challenges we face today. Source: Jamison and Schäferhoff (2016). Note: Health benefits are based on reductions in under-five and adult mortality. V3 Source: Jamison and Schäferhoff (2016). Note: Health benefits are based on reductions in under-five and adult mortality. 5 6

Chapter 1 Chapter 1 Around one-third if the reductions in adult mortality since 1970 can be attributed to gains in education girls and young women. These benefits could be even higher in the future with the improvements in education quality and efficiency WHY INVEST NOW? proposed by the Commission. <Educating girls saved over 130 millin lives - Declines in mortality rates (per 1000) in low-and middle-income countries (1970-2010)> The case for investing in education is indisputable. Education is a fundamental Decline in mortality rates human right. It is critical for long-term economic growth and essential for the achievement of all of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. A 120% dollar invested in an additional year of schooling, particularly for girls, generates earnings and health benefits of $10 low-income countries and nearly $4 in lower-middle-income countries. 5 90 Percentage decline attributable to female schooling Percentage decline attributable <Education is the smartest investment -benefit-cost ratios are high> 60 to income growth For each $1 invested in an additional year of schooling… Percentage decline attributable to technological change Low Income Lower Middle Upper Middle 30 Countries Income Countries Income Countries 0 Earnings Under Five Female Male Increase $ 5 $ 3 $ 1 Source: Jamison and Schäferhoff (2016). Earnings Ultimately the value of education is increasing because it will determine whether & Health Benefits $ 10 $ 4 $ 2 the defining trends of this century - technological, economic, and demographic Increase - create opportunity or entrench inequality. Education is the common critical factor for successfully addressing the global challenges we face today. Source: Jamison and Schäferhoff (2016). Note: Health benefits are based on reductions in under-five and adult mortality. V3 Source: Jamison and Schäferhoff (2016). Note: Health benefits are based on reductions in under-five and adult mortality. 5 6

Chapter 1 7 Chapter 1 <Five aims of the Learning Generation > Lower- Upper- % of children All Low- middle middle or youth countries income income income A VISION FOR THE Preschool 2015 51 23 53 68 Source: Educa- tion Commission LEARNING GENERATION gross Trend 2030 68 42 72 80 projections (2016). enrollment Including data from 2040 74 54 78 84 Research for Equi- Vision 2030 96 89 97 99 table Access and Learning Centre 2040 100 99 100 100 (REAL), University of Cambridge (2016). V4 The Education Commission concludes that it is possible to get all young people Complete 2015 51 19 50 73 Note: Equity mea- primary AND into school and learning within a generation and create a Learning Generation. The learning Trend 2030 68 30 72 88 sure is the average 2040 37 74 81 92 Commission is challenging development partners to rally behind this bold vision. Vision 2030 85 68 87 94 ratio wealthiest 20 percent/poor- est 20 percent of <Percentage of children on track to complete primary and reach primary level learning targets 2040 95 88 96 98 primary-school age children (LIC and - Trend and vision pathways> LMIC together). Complete 2015 31 4 27 54 secondary Trend 2030 44 10 44 68 AND attaining higher learning 2040 50 15 51 73 skills Vision 2030 64 28 67 86 2040 81 53 85 95 Accessing 2015 35 11 29 53 post-secondary Trend 2030 47 22 44 67 2040 53 29 50 71 Vision 2030 69 43 69 88 2040 87 71 88 96 Equity measure 2015 4.3 for: complete Trend 2030 3.5 primary AND learning 2040 3.9 Vision 2030 1.5 2040 1.0 Source: Education Commission projections (2016). Note: Equity measure is the average ratio wealthiest 20 percent/poorest 20 percent of primary-school age children (LIC and LMIC together). This would be the largest expansion of educational opportunity in history. We know this is possible because a quarter of the world's countries are already on the right path. If all countries accelerate progress to the rate of the world's 25% fastest education improvers, it is possible to get all young people learning within a generation (Click here to view more information). All children in low- and middle-income countries could have access to quality pre-primary, primary, and secondary education, and a child in a low-income country would be as 7 8

Chapter 1 7 Chapter 1 <Five aims of the Learning Generation > Lower- Upper- % of children All Low- middle middle or youth countries income income income A VISION FOR THE Preschool 2015 51 23 53 68 Source: Educa- tion Commission LEARNING GENERATION gross Trend 2030 68 42 72 80 projections (2016). enrollment Including data from 2040 74 54 78 84 Research for Equi- Vision 2030 96 89 97 99 table Access and Learning Centre 2040 100 99 100 100 (REAL), University of Cambridge (2016). V4 The Education Commission concludes that it is possible to get all young people Complete 2015 51 19 50 73 Note: Equity mea- primary AND into school and learning within a generation and create a Learning Generation. The learning Trend 2030 68 30 72 88 sure is the average 2040 37 74 81 92 Commission is challenging development partners to rally behind this bold vision. Vision 2030 85 68 87 94 ratio wealthiest 20 percent/poor- est 20 percent of <Percentage of children on track to complete primary and reach primary level learning targets 2040 95 88 96 98 primary-school age children (LIC and - Trend and vision pathways> LMIC together). Complete 2015 31 4 27 54 secondary Trend 2030 44 10 44 68 AND attaining higher learning 2040 50 15 51 73 skills Vision 2030 64 28 67 86 2040 81 53 85 95 Accessing 2015 35 11 29 53 post-secondary Trend 2030 47 22 44 67 2040 53 29 50 71 Vision 2030 69 43 69 88 2040 87 71 88 96 Equity measure 2015 4.3 for: complete Trend 2030 3.5 primary AND learning 2040 3.9 Vision 2030 1.5 2040 1.0 Source: Education Commission projections (2016). Note: Equity measure is the average ratio wealthiest 20 percent/poorest 20 percent of primary-school age children (LIC and LMIC together). This would be the largest expansion of educational opportunity in history. We know this is possible because a quarter of the world's countries are already on the right path. If all countries accelerate progress to the rate of the world's 25% fastest education improvers, it is possible to get all young people learning within a generation (Click here to view more information). All children in low- and middle-income countries could have access to quality pre-primary, primary, and secondary education, and a child in a low-income country would be as 7 8

Chapter 1 Chapter 1 likely to reach a baseline level of secondary school skills and participate in post-secondary education as a child in a high-income country today. If all countries progress at the rate of the world’s top 25% fastest education improvers (Click here to view more information), then within a generation, the world can achieve these critical education objectives: FINANCING • Quality preschool education for all children COMPACT • All girls and boys completing primary school, and all 10-year-olds having functional literacy and numeracy • The proportion of girls and boys achieving secondary level skills in low-income countries to reach levels in high-income countries • Participation in post-secondary learning in low-income countries to near levels seen today in high-income countries To achieve the Learning Generation, the Commission calls for a Financing • Inequalities in participation and learning between the richest and poorest children within countries very Compact between developing countries and the international community, sharply reduced, coupled with strong progress in reducing other forms of inequality realized through four education transformations: strengthening performance, Countries that invest and reform to achieve these objectives will reap huge fostering innovation, prioritizing inclusion, and increasing finance. benefits that far outweigh the costs. They will gain the economic advantages that come with an educated workforce with the skills necessary to compete Under this Compact, national government would commit to reform their in the 21st century economy. The overall economic benefits will translate into education systems to maximize learning and efficiency and to ensure that sweeping gains in income and living standards at the individual levels as well. every child has access to quality education, free from pre-primary to secondary Overall, the commission estimates that if children in low-income countries who levels, through the progressive and sustained increase of domestic financing. start preschool today were to experience the benefits of the Learning Generation vision, over the course of their lifetimes they could expect to earn almost five When developing countries commit to invest and reform, the international times as much as their parents, a value that would exceed total costs of their community would stand ready to offer increased support - both technical and education by a factor of 12. 6 financial - to enable the transformation of educational opportunity and quality. Figure 8. Some benefits of the Learning Generation pathway This would include mobilizing new finance from a wide range of sources, <Some benefits of the Learning Generation pathway> including through the establishment of a new International Finance Facility for Education (IFFEd) which would mobilize substantial new financing for education through the Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs). For a girl and a boy from Lifetime earnings for each For each, their lifetime The Compact would mobilize a virtuous circle in which investment in education a low-income country who will be nearly five times earnings will be 12X greater begin pre-school in 2017: that of their parents than the cost of their education leads to reform and results lead to new investment. It would be underpinned by strengthened accountability mechanisms and high-level advocacy to ensure that developing countries and the international community are meeting their responsibilities to education. For a girl who completes Her risk of marriage On average, she will Because of her education, secondary education: before age 18 have two children, the under-five mortality becomes very low compared to nearly rates of her children will be five today nearly 25% lower 9 Source: Education Commission projections (2016) 10

Chapter 1 Chapter 1 likely to reach a baseline level of secondary school skills and participate in post-secondary education as a child in a high-income country today. If all countries progress at the rate of the world’s top 25% fastest education improvers (Click here to view more information), then within a generation, the world can achieve these critical education objectives: FINANCING • Quality preschool education for all children COMPACT • All girls and boys completing primary school, and all 10-year-olds having functional literacy and numeracy • The proportion of girls and boys achieving secondary level skills in low-income countries to reach levels in high-income countries • Participation in post-secondary learning in low-income countries to near levels seen today in high-income countries To achieve the Learning Generation, the Commission calls for a Financing • Inequalities in participation and learning between the richest and poorest children within countries very Compact between developing countries and the international community, sharply reduced, coupled with strong progress in reducing other forms of inequality realized through four education transformations: strengthening performance, Countries that invest and reform to achieve these objectives will reap huge fostering innovation, prioritizing inclusion, and increasing finance. benefits that far outweigh the costs. They will gain the economic advantages that come with an educated workforce with the skills necessary to compete Under this Compact, national government would commit to reform their in the 21st century economy. The overall economic benefits will translate into education systems to maximize learning and efficiency and to ensure that sweeping gains in income and living standards at the individual levels as well. every child has access to quality education, free from pre-primary to secondary Overall, the commission estimates that if children in low-income countries who levels, through the progressive and sustained increase of domestic financing. start preschool today were to experience the benefits of the Learning Generation vision, over the course of their lifetimes they could expect to earn almost five When developing countries commit to invest and reform, the international times as much as their parents, a value that would exceed total costs of their community would stand ready to offer increased support - both technical and education by a factor of 12. 6 financial - to enable the transformation of educational opportunity and quality. Figure 8. Some benefits of the Learning Generation pathway This would include mobilizing new finance from a wide range of sources, <Some benefits of the Learning Generation pathway> including through the establishment of a new International Finance Facility for Education (IFFEd) which would mobilize substantial new financing for education through the Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs). For a girl and a boy from Lifetime earnings for each For each, their lifetime The Compact would mobilize a virtuous circle in which investment in education a low-income country who will be nearly five times earnings will be 12X greater begin pre-school in 2017: that of their parents than the cost of their education leads to reform and results lead to new investment. It would be underpinned by strengthened accountability mechanisms and high-level advocacy to ensure that developing countries and the international community are meeting their responsibilities to education. For a girl who completes Her risk of marriage On average, she will Because of her education, secondary education: before age 18 have two children, the under-five mortality becomes very low compared to nearly rates of her children will be five today nearly 25% lower 9 Source: Education Commission projections (2016) 10

Chapter 2 PERFORMANCE: REFORMING EDUCATION SYSTEMS Successful education systems must put results front and center. Leaders must strengthen the performance of education systems by focusing on results at every level. Today, in too many parts of the world, more money is not leading to better outcomes. Efforts to improve education are leading to huge variability in results, with similar investments and reforms producing widely different outcomes in different places. For example, Vietnam spends about the same amount per pupil on education as Tunisia, as a percentage of GDP per capita. Yet, in Tunisia only 64 percent of students passed the secondary international learning assessment, while in Vietnam it was 96 percent. The Commission’s analysis finds that improvements in the design and delivery of education will succeed only if they are underpinned by a system that is built to deliver results. Strong results-driven education systems – which ensure coherence across policies, a clear route from policy to implementation, and effective governance and accountability – are necessary for strong outcomes and lasting change. While many education systems today are focused on the management and regulation of inputs – finances, buildings, teachers, and textbooks – the approach must shift to emphasize the management of outcomes and asking the question: are children and young people learning and preparing for adult life? Learning from results-driven systems in education and across sectors, the Commission calls on decision-makers to set standards, track progress, make information public, invest in what delivers the best results, and cut waste. 11 12

Chapter 2 PERFORMANCE: REFORMING EDUCATION SYSTEMS Successful education systems must put results front and center. Leaders must strengthen the performance of education systems by focusing on results at every level. Today, in too many parts of the world, more money is not leading to better outcomes. Efforts to improve education are leading to huge variability in results, with similar investments and reforms producing widely different outcomes in different places. For example, Vietnam spends about the same amount per pupil on education as Tunisia, as a percentage of GDP per capita. Yet, in Tunisia only 64 percent of students passed the secondary international learning assessment, while in Vietnam it was 96 percent. The Commission’s analysis finds that improvements in the design and delivery of education will succeed only if they are underpinned by a system that is built to deliver results. Strong results-driven education systems – which ensure coherence across policies, a clear route from policy to implementation, and effective governance and accountability – are necessary for strong outcomes and lasting change. While many education systems today are focused on the management and regulation of inputs – finances, buildings, teachers, and textbooks – the approach must shift to emphasize the management of outcomes and asking the question: are children and young people learning and preparing for adult life? Learning from results-driven systems in education and across sectors, the Commission calls on decision-makers to set standards, track progress, make information public, invest in what delivers the best results, and cut waste. 11 12

Chapter 2 Chapter 2 Commissioner TEOPISTA BIRUNGI MAYANJA We are in a crisis which sometimes we are not conscious about. We need to do things differently right from policy planning. Commissioner AMEL KARBOUL We know that if we do nothing by 2030, half of the world's children and youth will be failing to learn... We have a choice - what kind of legacy we want to leave. 13 14

Chapter 2 Chapter 2 Commissioner TEOPISTA BIRUNGI MAYANJA We are in a crisis which sometimes we are not conscious about. We need to do things differently right from policy planning. Commissioner AMEL KARBOUL We know that if we do nothing by 2030, half of the world's children and youth will be failing to learn... We have a choice - what kind of legacy we want to leave. 13 14

Chapter 2 Chapter 2 That's why I am so keen SET STANDARDS, to talk about TRACK PROGRESS AND MAKE INFORMATION PUBLIC transforming the delivery of education. Doing it As a first step toward creating results-driven education systems, the Commission differently. recommends that national decision-makers set national standards, assess learning and monitor progress. Today, the majority of children in the developing world are not tested at all. Only about half of developing countries have a systematic national learning assessment at primary school level; far fewer do at lower secondary level. Only half of countries report data on government expenditure on education. Teacher-led accountability in Uganda Assessing learning enables teachers to tailor teaching and helps leaders to In 2013, the Uganda National Teachers’ the severe inadequacy of school target efforts and resources where they are most needed. Publishing information Union (UNATU) joined forces with a infrastructure; in some cases, over 100 about outcomes and expenditure helps to strengthen accountability and group of civil society organizations to students were in classrooms meant for 40-50 students, and 35 percent of launch the Quality Public Education (QPE) improve efficiency and results. Campaign. The campaign empowered learners were attending classes under teachers across the country to use trees. The campaign included training Countries should develop their own national assessments as part of a data to call for greater accountability for union leaders on budget analysis, sustainable infrastructure of data collection, organization, analysis, and and efficiency in national budgeting. data collection and dissemination, and feedback. Countries should also track expenditure from system to school The campaign brought to light findings awareness-raising activities. Since its level and publish national education accounts to facilitate improvements in that a large portion of the education launch, school administrators have efficiency. Data should be made public to enable communities and families to budget was spent on “ghost teachers,” publicly shared payroll information to help drive results by holding leaders and schools to account refurbishing government buildings, or help tackle “ghost teachers” and the covering salaries and expenses for proportion of grants reaching their government officials. It made public intended schools has increased. 15 16

Chapter 2 Chapter 2 That's why I am so keen SET STANDARDS, to talk about TRACK PROGRESS AND MAKE INFORMATION PUBLIC transforming the delivery of education. Doing it As a first step toward creating results-driven education systems, the Commission differently. recommends that national decision-makers set national standards, assess learning and monitor progress. Today, the majority of children in the developing world are not tested at all. Only about half of developing countries have a systematic national learning assessment at primary school level; far fewer do at lower secondary level. Only half of countries report data on government expenditure on education. Teacher-led accountability in Uganda Assessing learning enables teachers to tailor teaching and helps leaders to In 2013, the Uganda National Teachers’ the severe inadequacy of school target efforts and resources where they are most needed. Publishing information Union (UNATU) joined forces with a infrastructure; in some cases, over 100 about outcomes and expenditure helps to strengthen accountability and group of civil society organizations to students were in classrooms meant for 40-50 students, and 35 percent of launch the Quality Public Education (QPE) improve efficiency and results. Campaign. The campaign empowered learners were attending classes under teachers across the country to use trees. The campaign included training Countries should develop their own national assessments as part of a data to call for greater accountability for union leaders on budget analysis, sustainable infrastructure of data collection, organization, analysis, and and efficiency in national budgeting. data collection and dissemination, and feedback. Countries should also track expenditure from system to school The campaign brought to light findings awareness-raising activities. Since its level and publish national education accounts to facilitate improvements in that a large portion of the education launch, school administrators have efficiency. Data should be made public to enable communities and families to budget was spent on “ghost teachers,” publicly shared payroll information to help drive results by holding leaders and schools to account refurbishing government buildings, or help tackle “ghost teachers” and the covering salaries and expenses for proportion of grants reaching their government officials. It made public intended schools has increased. 15 16

Chapter 2 Chapter 2 INVEST IN WHAT DELIVERS THE BEST RESULTS To galvanize attention globally, a single global indicator of learning should be The Commission recommends that decision-makers invest in the education agreed on to complement national measures of learning. The international interventions and approaches that deliver the best results. Funding should community should track, rank, and publicize countries’ progress in getting be shifted to the best-proven systemic changes and specific practices that all children learning. And to provide the technical, financial, and capacity- improve learning, selected and adapted according to different country contexts. building support necessary for all of this, global partners should establish a Understanding of what works best to increase learning is more advanced than Global Education Data Initiative to support developing countries in conducting ever before. Unfortunately, too little of this knowledge makes it into education their own national assessments to an appropriate standard, build analytical policy. Some of the most proven approaches remain overlooked and underfunded, capacity for disseminating and using results, and support participation in while money continues to be spent on other, much less effective, practices and international and regional assessments. interventions. For example, while evidence on the benefits of mother-tongue instruction is strong, only half of all children in low- and middle-income countries are taught in a language they speak. Cost 120% Proven practices can transform learning at low cost 100 Basic education (30% learning) Mother tongue / bilingual instruction 80 Providing remedial education Better teaching methods 60 Cut waste - double learning time Computer-assisted learning and materials 40 Community-based monitoring Malaria treatment and control 20 0 Percent of children learning 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% To keep investment focused on the reforms and practices that work best requires building education systems that continuously seek out and act upon the best new information on what delivers results, including by increasing the share of funding that goes toward research, development, and evaluation. Increasing funding in these areas can benefit all countries and will be particularly critical as decision-makers innovate and respond to the new challenges and 17 opportunities facing education in the coming decades. 18

Chapter 2 Chapter 2 INVEST IN WHAT DELIVERS THE BEST RESULTS To galvanize attention globally, a single global indicator of learning should be The Commission recommends that decision-makers invest in the education agreed on to complement national measures of learning. The international interventions and approaches that deliver the best results. Funding should community should track, rank, and publicize countries’ progress in getting be shifted to the best-proven systemic changes and specific practices that all children learning. And to provide the technical, financial, and capacity- improve learning, selected and adapted according to different country contexts. building support necessary for all of this, global partners should establish a Understanding of what works best to increase learning is more advanced than Global Education Data Initiative to support developing countries in conducting ever before. Unfortunately, too little of this knowledge makes it into education their own national assessments to an appropriate standard, build analytical policy. Some of the most proven approaches remain overlooked and underfunded, capacity for disseminating and using results, and support participation in while money continues to be spent on other, much less effective, practices and international and regional assessments. interventions. For example, while evidence on the benefits of mother-tongue instruction is strong, only half of all children in low- and middle-income countries are taught in a language they speak. Cost 120% Proven practices can transform learning at low cost 100 Basic education (30% learning) Mother tongue / bilingual instruction 80 Providing remedial education Better teaching methods 60 Cut waste - double learning time Computer-assisted learning and materials 40 Community-based monitoring Malaria treatment and control 20 0 Percent of children learning 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% To keep investment focused on the reforms and practices that work best requires building education systems that continuously seek out and act upon the best new information on what delivers results, including by increasing the share of funding that goes toward research, development, and evaluation. Increasing funding in these areas can benefit all countries and will be particularly critical as decision-makers innovate and respond to the new challenges and 17 opportunities facing education in the coming decades. 18

Chapter 2 Chapter 2 Preschool education. Ensure that school children are healthy. Some of the best-proven practices Participation in quality pre-primary programs Many children in low- and lower-middle-income countries suffer from malnutrition, worms, for increasing participation and learning increases the likelihood of primary school malaria, and high levels of disability, all of attendance and decreases grade repetition and dropping out. In Brazil, low-income girls who which affect their ability to learn. Rooting out participated in community preschool programs some of these basic barriers to learning can Maximize the utilization of hours in the school Use proven, child-focused teaching methods were two times more likely to reach fifth grade have significant impacts. Malaria prevention in year for learning. and materials. and three times more likely to reach eighth grade particular is very cost effective. In some countries, about half of the school Teaching methods can often be improved with than their peers who did not attend preschool. year is not utilized because teachers are absent simple in-service training and the provision Good quality preschools also improve school Community-based accountability. from school or are in school but not teaching. of new materials and ongoing support. A readiness and can lead to better primary Involving communities by providing information on By ensuring that children get the full number of combination of improved teaching methods, school outcomes, particularly for poor and learning outcomes and creating mechanisms for days and hours in school, learning outcomes provision of materials, and remedial help for disadvantaged students. Very cost effective. the community to be involved in monitoring and could be improved by 10-20 percent in many those who fall behind could improve learning decision-making improves both school enrollment low-learning contexts. Very cost effective. outcomes by 25-53 percent in many low- and learning outcomes. Very cost effective. learning contexts. Cost effective. Incentivize enrollment and learning in school. Teach in children’s native language. Reducing cost barriers, through fee reduction, More than 500 million primary and secondary cash transfers, and school meals, can increase school children, or half of all children in low- <Highly effective practices to increase access and learning outcomes> enrollment rates by 6-16 percent. Incentivizing and middle-income countries, are not taught in learning with scholarships is even more their native language. In sub-Saharan Africa, the effective. Two separate studies, in Kenya level is over 90 percent of students. Learning Mother-tongue / bilingual instruction $ Teaching quality, outcomes in middle-income countries in sub- Better teaching methods $$$ learning effects and Benin, studied the effects of monetary Saharan Africa are more than 50 percent lower Providing remedial education $$ Teaching quality, incentives to improve student outcomes. The Cut waste — double learning time $ access effects strongest gains were achieved when students than comparable middle-income countries in Group by ability $ Other, learnin g were organized in teams whose learning Asia and Latin America. Language of instruction effects Update teachers on student progress $ Other, access outcomes were measured, potentially due to policies account for one-quarter of this learning Teacher performance incentives $$ effects peer-to-peer tutoring within teams. On average, gap. Many Latin American countries have Preschool (learning ef fect by grade 5) $$$ incentives could increase learning by 12-23 adopted mother-tongue instruction policies Student performance incentives $$$ Intervention s cost percent in low-learning contexts, but costs for indigenous people, reducing learning gaps. New school in village $$$ $ 0-3% of standard are relatively high because individual students Switching to mother-tongue instruction is Community-base d monitoring $ (basic) costs are rewarded. Moderately cost effective; cost- very cost effective. Since parents often prefer School feeding $$$ $$ Intervention s effectiveness improves when interventions are instruction in colonial languages, the benefits Computer-assisted learning and materials $$$ cost 4-9% of well targeted. need to be communicated — their children will standard costs Malaria prevention and c ontrol $ learn better and learn global languages. Washrooms and water $$ $$$ Intervention s cost 10% or more Cash transfers $$$ of standard costs User fee reduction $$$ For further information, see the Education Commission background papers Providing instructional material s $$ available here: http://report.educationcommission.org/resources/ Micronutrient intervention $ Data on percentage improvements from Education Commission analysis Train school managemen t $ (2016) using data provided as background material to the report by Conn, 01 0% 20%3 0% 40%5 0% Katherine, 2016. “The Effectiveness of Education Programs Worldwide: Evidence from a Meta-Analytic Dataset.” 19 20

Chapter 2 Chapter 2 Preschool education. Ensure that school children are healthy. Some of the best-proven practices Participation in quality pre-primary programs Many children in low- and lower-middle-income countries suffer from malnutrition, worms, for increasing participation and learning increases the likelihood of primary school malaria, and high levels of disability, all of attendance and decreases grade repetition and dropping out. In Brazil, low-income girls who which affect their ability to learn. Rooting out participated in community preschool programs some of these basic barriers to learning can Maximize the utilization of hours in the school Use proven, child-focused teaching methods were two times more likely to reach fifth grade have significant impacts. Malaria prevention in year for learning. and materials. and three times more likely to reach eighth grade particular is very cost effective. In some countries, about half of the school Teaching methods can often be improved with than their peers who did not attend preschool. year is not utilized because teachers are absent simple in-service training and the provision Good quality preschools also improve school Community-based accountability. from school or are in school but not teaching. of new materials and ongoing support. A readiness and can lead to better primary Involving communities by providing information on By ensuring that children get the full number of combination of improved teaching methods, school outcomes, particularly for poor and learning outcomes and creating mechanisms for days and hours in school, learning outcomes provision of materials, and remedial help for disadvantaged students. Very cost effective. the community to be involved in monitoring and could be improved by 10-20 percent in many those who fall behind could improve learning decision-making improves both school enrollment low-learning contexts. Very cost effective. outcomes by 25-53 percent in many low- and learning outcomes. Very cost effective. learning contexts. Cost effective. Incentivize enrollment and learning in school. Teach in children’s native language. Reducing cost barriers, through fee reduction, More than 500 million primary and secondary cash transfers, and school meals, can increase school children, or half of all children in low- <Highly effective practices to increase access and learning outcomes> enrollment rates by 6-16 percent. Incentivizing and middle-income countries, are not taught in learning with scholarships is even more their native language. In sub-Saharan Africa, the effective. Two separate studies, in Kenya level is over 90 percent of students. Learning Mother-tongue / bilingual instruction $ Teaching quality, outcomes in middle-income countries in sub- Better teaching methods $$$ learning effects and Benin, studied the effects of monetary Saharan Africa are more than 50 percent lower Providing remedial education $$ Teaching quality, incentives to improve student outcomes. The Cut waste — double learning time $ access effects strongest gains were achieved when students than comparable middle-income countries in Group by ability $ Other, learnin g were organized in teams whose learning Asia and Latin America. Language of instruction effects Update teachers on student progress $ Other, access outcomes were measured, potentially due to policies account for one-quarter of this learning Teacher performance incentives $$ effects peer-to-peer tutoring within teams. On average, gap. Many Latin American countries have Preschool (learning ef fect by grade 5) $$$ incentives could increase learning by 12-23 adopted mother-tongue instruction policies Student performance incentives $$$ Intervention s cost percent in low-learning contexts, but costs for indigenous people, reducing learning gaps. New school in village $$$ $ 0-3% of standard are relatively high because individual students Switching to mother-tongue instruction is Community-base d monitoring $ (basic) costs are rewarded. Moderately cost effective; cost- very cost effective. Since parents often prefer School feeding $$$ $$ Intervention s effectiveness improves when interventions are instruction in colonial languages, the benefits Computer-assisted learning and materials $$$ cost 4-9% of well targeted. need to be communicated — their children will standard costs Malaria prevention and c ontrol $ learn better and learn global languages. Washrooms and water $$ $$$ Intervention s cost 10% or more Cash transfers $$$ of standard costs User fee reduction $$$ For further information, see the Education Commission background papers Providing instructional material s $$ available here: http://report.educationcommission.org/resources/ Micronutrient intervention $ Data on percentage improvements from Education Commission analysis Train school managemen t $ (2016) using data provided as background material to the report by Conn, 01 0% 20%3 0% 40%5 0% Katherine, 2016. “The Effectiveness of Education Programs Worldwide: Evidence from a Meta-Analytic Dataset.” 19 20

Chapter 2 Chapter 2 <Teachers' time at primary school level> CUT WASTE Of all teachers in 77% 55% 45% Improving performance also requires cutting waste and cracking down on the 7 African inefficiency and corruption that prevent students from learning. On average, low- countries: and middle-income countries spend 2 percent of their GDP each year on education costs that do not lead to learning. In low-income countries, this amounts to half of the entire education budget. Are present Are present Are actually in at school in classrooms classrooms teaching Leaders must enable teachers to spend their time teaching and tackle the causes of absenteeism. Too often, teachers are not in school or not teaching because Increased investment and improved efficiency cannot be substituted for one they are expected to perform non-teaching tasks (fundraising, administration, another. Both will be needed. While more resources are urgently required, if all traveling to receive pay, training, etc.). A survey in seven African countries found resources were better managed, teaching and learning could improve rapidly that on average, primary school students received less than 2.5 hours of teaching and returns on investment in education would increase. per day – less than half the intended instructional time. Due to teacher absences from school and classrooms, schools in these countries use only 45 percent of Spending that does not lead to real learning or progression through education, their teachers’ time for instruction. poorly targeted resources, and weak financial management are the biggest sources of waste in education systems across the world. In many countries, corruption in education is pervasive, not only leaking money from the system but also damaging children’s learning and teachers’ motivation. Public expenditure tracking surveys have found that up to a quarter – and in extreme cases up to a half – of funds earmarked for public schools do not end up reaching them. Decision-makers must take action to fight corruption in education by establishing reliable education management information systems, enabling teachers to spend their time teaching, tackling the systemic causes of absenteeism, and cutting the costs of learning materials. 21 22

Chapter 2 Chapter 2 <Teachers' time at primary school level> CUT WASTE Of all teachers in 77% 55% 45% Improving performance also requires cutting waste and cracking down on the 7 African inefficiency and corruption that prevent students from learning. On average, low- countries: and middle-income countries spend 2 percent of their GDP each year on education costs that do not lead to learning. In low-income countries, this amounts to half of the entire education budget. Are present Are present Are actually in at school in classrooms classrooms teaching Leaders must enable teachers to spend their time teaching and tackle the causes of absenteeism. Too often, teachers are not in school or not teaching because Increased investment and improved efficiency cannot be substituted for one they are expected to perform non-teaching tasks (fundraising, administration, another. Both will be needed. While more resources are urgently required, if all traveling to receive pay, training, etc.). A survey in seven African countries found resources were better managed, teaching and learning could improve rapidly that on average, primary school students received less than 2.5 hours of teaching and returns on investment in education would increase. per day – less than half the intended instructional time. Due to teacher absences from school and classrooms, schools in these countries use only 45 percent of Spending that does not lead to real learning or progression through education, their teachers’ time for instruction. poorly targeted resources, and weak financial management are the biggest sources of waste in education systems across the world. In many countries, corruption in education is pervasive, not only leaking money from the system but also damaging children’s learning and teachers’ motivation. Public expenditure tracking surveys have found that up to a quarter – and in extreme cases up to a half – of funds earmarked for public schools do not end up reaching them. Decision-makers must take action to fight corruption in education by establishing reliable education management information systems, enabling teachers to spend their time teaching, tackling the systemic causes of absenteeism, and cutting the costs of learning materials. 21 22

REFERENCES 1 See for example Frey, Carl Benedikt and Michael A. Osborne. 2013. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School at University of Oxford: Oxford. 2 World Bank. 2016. “World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends.” World Bank: Washington, DC. 3 Detail on the analysis, projections, and costing model which inform this e-book can be found in the Commission team’s Analytical Background Paper available at http://report.educationcommission.org/resources 4 UNESCO Institute of Statistics (UIS). 2016. “263 million children and youth are out of school,” accessed July 25, 2016. http://www.uis.unesco.org/ Education/Pages/oosc-data-release-2016.aspx. 5 Jamison, Dean and Marco Schäferhoff. 2016. \"Estimating the Economic Returns of Education from a Health Perspective.\" Background Paper for the Education Commission. SEEK Development (SEEK). 6 Commission calculations with investment case model provided by SEEK Development. The model settings used are: increase expected primary education outcomes from today’s expected 4.2 years to 6 years; and secondary school outcomes from 1.9 years to 3.9 years (65% of 6 years), and quality improvements including a full set of interventions included in the SEEK model. The income impact is the discounted difference between lifetime incomes with the present education outcomes and lifetime income with the improved outcomes (the exact discounted difference is a factor of 4.5). The education costs are set using the full set of interventions provided to SEEK by the Education Commission. 7 Education Commission projections (2016). Including data from Research The International for Equitable Access and Learning Centre (REAL), University of Cambridge Commission (2016). on Financing Global Education Opportunity 23 educationcommission.org

REFERENCES 1 See for example Frey, Carl Benedikt and Michael A. Osborne. 2013. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School at University of Oxford: Oxford. 2 World Bank. 2016. “World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends.” World Bank: Washington, DC. 3 Detail on the analysis, projections, and costing model which inform this e-book can be found in the Commission team’s Analytical Background Paper available at http://report.educationcommission.org/resources 4 UNESCO Institute of Statistics (UIS). 2016. “263 million children and youth are out of school,” accessed July 25, 2016. http://www.uis.unesco.org/ Education/Pages/oosc-data-release-2016.aspx. 5 Jamison, Dean and Marco Schäferhoff. 2016. \"Estimating the Economic Returns of Education from a Health Perspective.\" Background Paper for the Education Commission. SEEK Development (SEEK). 6 Commission calculations with investment case model provided by SEEK Development. The model settings used are: increase expected primary education outcomes from today’s expected 4.2 years to 6 years; and secondary school outcomes from 1.9 years to 3.9 years (65% of 6 years), and quality improvements including a full set of interventions included in the SEEK model. The income impact is the discounted difference between lifetime incomes with the present education outcomes and lifetime income with the improved outcomes (the exact discounted difference is a factor of 4.5). The education costs are set using the full set of interventions provided to SEEK by the Education Commission. 7 Education Commission projections (2016). Including data from Research The International for Equitable Access and Learning Centre (REAL), University of Cambridge Commission (2016). on Financing Global Education Opportunity 23 educationcommission.org