Horizon 3: Our preferred future

Horizon Three A vision of our preferred future. Amy Qu, Seva Simone, Silas Gibbins



Executive Summary Our preferred future integrates change at systemic and local levels, to form a more interconnected, empathetic, and empowered global community. We imagine a world in which basic needs are provided for, citizen demands are heard by governments, and the democratization of technology allows for greater transparency. Communities are more resilient, and have higher levels of interpersonal trust among community members. We are invested in the future of others; which results in individuals, corporations, and governments working together pursuing mutually beneficial solutions. That being said, we do not imagine a world where issues of corporate greed or unethical data usage are completely solved. Instead, we envision a future where these issues persist, but are met by people who are prepared and motivated to address them.

Presentation

Our story begins in 2028, and is situated in New York City. We see the continuation of current day global trends and crises; such as climate change, media sensationalism, and social media doomscrolling. The world in 2028, if we don’t do anything about it, looks a lot like today. Despite the mounting social media campaigns and news stories about the changing global condition, they don’t provoke change on an individual level. We predict that a lot of us aren’t going to start paying attention or seeking change until signals of global change appear in our own backyards. We predict that mounting concerns about global climate change, political unrest, and our historical inaction against these topics will come to a head in 2028. The UN will finally issue a statement, declaring inaction to no longer be a viable option for nations. Countries who wish to evade punishment by the ICC must agree to the new ESG laws set in place. The UN, OECD, and ICC come together to create a set of laws defining what these ESG scores mean, and what standards nations must abide by in order to save the planet.



One way that many corporations choose to boost their ESG scores is by contributing directly to the communities that their operations are situated in. Companies often opt to boost their Social metrics and improve their perception among local communities by contributing to the construction of Community Third Spaces. These Third Spaces follow Oldenburg’s theory of The Third Place; they are publicly available spaces for community discourse and shared activity. In 2022, Third Places take the form of coffee shops, bars, public parks, recreational centers, and community gardens. In 2028, these forums still exist. However there is the potential for greater integration of new technologies such as the Metaverse. Third Spaces may utilize AR, VR, or physical experiences to promote human connection. These Third Spaces are critical for the restoration of interpersonal trust within our communities. They become important places for community discourse and organization. People get to know their neighbors, voice their beliefs, and discuss opposing viewpoints. Community resilience is vastly improved by the addition of Third Spaces.

Despite what seemed like clear progress, there was still one company that was evading new ESG legislation. Once it become public that the Metaverse was engaging in unethical business practices in order to bypass the ESG laws, citizens across the world were outraged. Not only did this news inspire anger, but also widespread cynicism. The hope of building a better world was starting to seem impossible. If companies like the Metaverse could still find ways to circumvent global legislation, then how could they ever be stopped? It seemed like no matter how much progress we thought we were making, companies like the Metaverse would still find ways to screw us over. This mass outrage sparked waves of protest and widespread anti-Metaverse sentiment. It was during the 2030’s that community resistance organizations started to take more action against the Metaverse. The Citizen Science Brigade is one such organization; it began in the 2020’s as a mutual aid organization for communities affected by climate change. The Citizen Science Brigade was especially active in New York City, where rising sea levels threatened to envelop dozens of neighborhoods.

As the Citizen Science Brigade grew in size and influence, they began using the Metaverse as a platform for community organizing and disseminating information. The CSB built their own plug-ins for Metaverse devices, which enabled users to vote on specific issues and view data-tracking for corporations. These plug-ins empowered citizens by increasing corporate accountability and data transparency. Additionally, it became easier than ever for citizens to become politically active, educate themselves on what was happening in the world around them, and to make themselves heard. Citizens could now use their Metaverse devices to vote, join community organizations, and share information with one another. The increased democratization of technology made it possible for almost all citizens to access the Metaverse, and the plethora of resources available on the Metaverse platform. Although the Metaverse was resistant to governmental regulation, citizens quickly organized to use the Metaverse platform

to their own advantage. This newfound agency and autonomy helped to dispel the widespread feelings of cynicism that resulted from the protests of 2031.

Citizens used CSB devices, such as their Standard Issue Goggles, along with built-in widgets to stay informed and active in their communities. The Metaverse wasn’t going to act on the best interests of the people, and the governments weren’t capable of holding them accountable. Rather than allowing the world to fall to further ruin, the people mobilized. They built more resilient, more tightly-knit communities. They learned not just to advocate on their own behalf, but also to join their neighbors in solidarity. With mounting pressure from Metaverse users and movements like the CSB, the Metaverse finally announced compatibility with all CSB devices in 2042. This was viewed as a landmark victory for the CSB, and everyone who shared their desire for a more transparent, ethical, and sustainable world.



In our preferred future, we collectively realize that real change can’t be dependent upon large corporations or even governments. We also learn to use technology to further human connection, rather than divisiveness. We’re more connected, transparent, and knowledgeable than ever before, and citizens are now more empowered than ever to make change within their own communities.

Diagram & Artifacts



Artifact: Metaverse AR Goggles In 2042, the Metaverse finally agreed to officially partner with the Citizen Science Brigade. Pictured above are the official Metaverse AR Vision Goggles. These AR goggles were the first device released in collaboration between both parties. These goggles are designed to be an accessible portal into the Metaverse for the masses. The goggles came factory-equipped with widgets released by the CSB, as per the requirements of the updated ESG legislation, and compatible with most other citizen science-led initiatives. In addition to cross compatibility between science databases, the AR goggles were designed to work with physical components as well. For instance, through heel-embedded locomotion trackers and data from street cameras, the user could walk around the real world while fully immersed in the Metaverse.

Artifact: Metaverse Slip Screen Slide In our preferred future, we imagined objects that would be immersive and immediately situated in a technologically advanced position, yet still recognisable to a present day audience in its form. This is the SlideScreen, a product created by our fictional company, the Metaverse. The SlideScreen is a screen-based interface that has the ability to be tactile, with each panel moving along a track to reconfigure the user interaction.

Artifact: Protest Posters In a world where a single corporation has gained dominance over the virtual world, concerned citizens push back against the hegemonic dominance of the Metaverse. In our story, the world has fallen into a state of environmental decay, and the Verse has motivation to keep people engaged in their digital ecosystem. These posters explore a few of the ideas central to the Metaverse resistance movement, as voiced by the Citizen Science Brigade.





Artifact: Metaverse Interface

These screens represent some of the Metaverse user interface. The Metaverse possesses some of the same functionalities/features of older social media platforms (posts, feed, user profiles, groups). However, the Verse also has features for Augmented or Virtual Reality experiences, and data mapping and sharing. These new features are what enable the citizens of the future to gain unprecedented power in advocating for themselves against entities such as the Metaverse.

Artifact: UN ESG Legislation We predict that there will be a landmark legislation by the UN, OECD, and ICC on behalf of the global community. This may take the form of an internationally broadcasted UN address, as well as documents outlining the details of this legislation.

Central Ideas Trust In our preferred future, we envision a world in which communities are more resilient, and have greater levels of interpersonal trust among its members. In contrast to our present day, in which ideological polarization has become an increasingly urgent issue that threatens the stability of society. According to a report by Our World in Data, people in the US trust each other less than they did 40 years ago. So why is trust so important? In the same report, trust is described as “a fundamental element of social capital – a key contributor to sustaining well-being outcomes, including economic development.” Think for example about the Prisoner’s Dilemma; a game-like scenario in which, if both people decide to cooperate, they both gain a point. If one person cheats and the other person doesn’t, then the cheater gains a point, and the loser loses a point. If both people decide to cheat, they gain nothing. This type of thinking can be applied to system-wide problems (economic or policy deals), or interpersonal ones (resolving civil disputes, or deciding whether to help someone in need). Low levels of interpersonal trust make individuals less likely to help one another, even if it might benefit all parties involved. Low levels of interpersonal trust make us less likely to pursue win-win solutions, which means that there is always someone who is the loser in conflict situations. Being “the loser,” for obvious reasons, often breeds resentment, especially if you’ve been wronged many times. In our preferred future, we are invested in the wellbeing of others, and we see one person’s security as a reflection of our own. We believe that, with an increased level of trust in our neighbors and establishments (governments, companies, etc), we will be more capable of working together to improve society and further innovation. Findings from the World Development Report support this claim, with data showing positive correlations between trust, civic engagement, and peaceful decision making. Meaning that, “countries where people are more likely to report trusting others, are also countries where there is less violence and more political stability and accountability” (Our World in Data). Third Places So how do we increase levels of trust among community members? Some of the key ingredients of interpersonal trust, according to Game Theory, are: Repeated interaction - being familiar with others, and having the opportunity to interact with others on a dependable basis.

Clear communication - less room for misunderstandings, which might trigger negative response or be the source of perceived aggression. Possible win-wins - making sure that there aren’t “losers,” or dynamics that pit people against one another. (“The Evolution of Trust”) In our preferred future, companies often choose to give back to communities by building publicly available Third Spaces. These Third Spaces are free to all community members, and provide a place to sit and relax, or be active, or spend time with family and friends. The concept of the Third Place was coined by Ray Oldenburg, who describes Third Places as “the public places on neutral ground where people can gather and interact,” and at “the heart of a community’s social vitality.” The importance of Third Places to a healthy, democratic society cannot be emphasized enough. Third Places “promote social equity by leveling the status of guests, providing a setting for grassroots politics, creating habits of public association, and offering psychological support to individuals and communities.” In contrast to many of the suburbs of today, our preferred future is rife with available places for community gathering and support. People from all walks of life can come together, discuss and settle disputes, or simply enjoy one another’s company. By creating spaces specifically for this purpose, we fulfill many of the key ingredients to interpersonal trust. Third Spaces are an integral part of how we see communities gaining their resilience and self-advocacy power in the future. Democratization of Information & Transparency Non Nobis Solum - not for ourselves alone. In our preferred future, personal devices are used to instill agency in individuals. Through democratized access to transparent information and the digitization of government, citizens would have everything they need to manage their own communities. Since the decisions passed would directly affect the citizens living within their areas, resilient communities would form around common issues. In our world, technology is used to facilitate human connection and promote interpersonal trust. Since citizens are now closer connected to their neighbors, they are incentivized to care: technology is used as a bridge to promote interpersonal connection. Evolution of Capitalism In the landmark study scenario planning for The Year 2000 from Shell, they describe their capitalist footprint as an evolving entity with the need to be prepared for unexpected positions but they don’t see an end to their company. Their goal is to build up a brand backed up by an array of commercial enterprises. The majority of large corporations operate in a similar manner. In our research, we were especially drawn to

how Starbucks envisioned themselves as more than a distributor of coffee and coffee- adjacent goods, but as an idea, a mindset, and an environment. Howard Schultz, Starbucks’ CEO, modeled his company as the Third Space, and he has largely built a chain of edifices that are exactly that, a retreat from the milieu of the modern world (Taylor). The focus of the company is no longer the product, but to exist as a place you are dependent on to exist--and that chasm will only be extended as the world retreats into more virtual spaces. In our preferred future we took that effort to the extreme. How could capital be rescripted to provide the critical space beyond work and home? Given that climate change, pollution, and resource extraction are quickly degrading the interstitial spaces, might companies step in to sponsor the restoration of these spaces for their own brand interests? As a concept that works well, but the current maxim of maximising profit for shareholders is often too constraining for most companies to consider doing anything beyond paying lip service to environmental causes as essentially a PR exercise. The critical step to the expansion of the role of corporate responsibility is our imagined legislation to force companies to model their majority profit structures around environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles. ESGs are a currently used framework to assess investments into companies that build giving back into their missions. Instead of companies opting into that model, a global treaty would be agreed upon to make companies focus the profits they make into conserving the commons, building community, and thus work in unison to begin healing the planet.

References Sites, readings, and videos we found enormously helpful for our project! We recommend you look into these if interested. “The Evolution of Trust” https://ncase.me/trust/ Our World in Data, “Trust” https://ourworldindata.org/trust David Held, “Global Governance... Into the Future” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEBPV1oRmqs&ab_channel=TEDxTalks Kate Taylor, “Starbucks is reimagining the core belief that turned the chain into a $88 billion juggernaut” https://www.businessinsider.com/starbucks-reimagine-third-place-2019-3