GEOEMAG2021

Vol XI, Issue IX, FEBRUARY 2021 n `100 DEFENCE n DIPLOMACY n SECURITY www.geopolitics.in AERSO2P0EI2NC1DIAIAL JUGGLING TO CONQUER Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is targeting an ambitious Atmanirbhar defence industry with a sizeable export component. Aerospace is the key to that objective

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EDITORIAL K SRINIVASAN NEEDED: INDIGENOUS DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGY That defence will have a key role to play if India has to nail on the head when he told Mint in an interview: become an industrial powerhouse is evident from the “The target looks quite ambitious but only heavy targets, Defence Production and Export Promotion Policy 2020 (DPEPP 2020) that aims to provide self-reliance in defence hard work and imaginative planning and policy making will manufacturing under the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan. take us somewhere. We should have planned for self-reliance Just have a look at the figures: long ago by adopting a multi-pronged strategy. It is one thing  Targeting to achieve a turnover of more than `1,75,000 to manufacture bullet-proof vests or electronic fuses but another thing to manufacture high-tech systems. crore ($25 Bn).  `35,000 crore worth of exports in aerospace by 2025. “The critical requisites are technology and eco-system  Create Indian intellectual and more R&D centres in the building. Till recently, even HAL did not think seriously about an eco-system. The fundamental mistake was that country. we neglected the private sector. Had the private sector been  Indigenisation of the imported components including made a partner in research and development through DRDO and the DPSUs there would have been a stream of innovation. alloys and special materials for defence equipment. Had off sets been administered creatively good domestic  Support for MSMEs and start-ups. capacity would have been built. This was followed by increasing the foreign direct “The essence of self-reliance is indigenous development investment (FDI) in the defence sector from 49-74 per cent of technology. We need to get a firm foothold in the hi-tech with the opportunity to go up to 100 per cent too, on case-to- areas. The new draft Defence Production and Export Policy case basis depending on the opportunity to access technology. 2020 identifies 13 advanced systems for development on a The government has also stipulated that be it a JV (Joint mission mode by the DRDO. The DRDO had hardly worked on Venture) or a WOS (Wholly-Owned Subsidiary) it should be a mission mode earlier and projects were open- ended with self-sufficient in the areas of product design and development. virtually no time limit. For this mission to be a success the DRDO has to outsource development of key subsystems to There is no doubt that the government wants only institutions like the IITs, Universities and the private sector serious players to be party of this business and get rid over without monopolising the entire work.” a period of time of all those who have over the years created a comfortable gravy train with the public sector and import The bottom line is indigenous development of technology. kits that are repackaged and sold as ‘Made in India’. While If that happens $25 bn will be a blip in our evolution as a that is one side of the problem, the other issue is that barring manufacturing powerhouse. just one or two heavyweights most of the others are simply looking at collaboration where all they have to do is facilitate, [email protected] invest 49 per cent and reap in the rewards. Will the multiple programmes that are being pushed forward under the ‘Make in India’ do the same for the defence industry? Former Defence Secretary G Mohan Kumar hit the www.geopolitics.in February 2021 3

CONTENTS EXPENSIVE BUT AERO INDIA-2021 Being self- INDISPENSABLE reliant in AIRPOWER 12 defence Given the harsh economic 24 The ‘Atmanirbhar challenges facing the Bharat’ campaign country, which is not unique is speeding up to India, the best way to the growth of afford an effective air force indigenous defence is to plan differently but manufacturing smartly by going for techno- capability in India. globalisation. The initiative requires a solid push from all 20 stakeholders in the long run. Realistic targets for indigenisation are needed Post-Rafale 32 IAF growth India cannot expect challenges complete indigenisation. While increasing In order to have indigenisation is its authorised 42 necessary, economies of squadrons earliest scale, costs and realistic by 2038, the Indian appraisal of the level Air Force requires technology transfer have $110 billion (`770,000 to be realised. crore). Where is that money? Will this 4 remain a pipe dream. Time to act is now. February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

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CONTENTS 44 AERO INDIA-2021 38 INDIA IS BUILDING UP ITS BMD SYSTEMS Nano drones will have big impact on battlefield With experience gained from the development of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile being an added advantage, India can Nano drones, the advanced have hypersonic weapons capability before the end of this decade. systems that pack a lot of functionality into a tiny form 48 MSMEs can factor, are becoming a major military tool. With China make or mar having a huge lead, India ‘Make in India’ needs to get its act together. The fulcrum of the ‘Make 58 in India’ programme is the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) segment and, as of now, the MSMEs are thought of only as an adjunct. But that is slowly changing. 52 Meeting new air and Augmenting IAF’s airlift missile threats capability The Indian Air Force India is slowly and steadily raising has begun substantial its means to deploy and sustain modernisation of its military forces across possible strategic air defences. distant battlefields by air. It is But while progress has time to quickly seal the deal for undoubtedly been made, acquiring 56 Airbus C-295 aircrafts. strategic SAM defences remain weak. 6 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

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CONTENTS AERO INDIA-2021 67 62 DAP-2020 is an old wine IAF’S CAPABILITIES, CAPABILITY GAPS AND OPTIONS in a new bottle Indian Air Force requires a strength of 42 combat squadrons by 2027- Whether the terminology 32 to meet the contingencies of a two-front war. There is an immediate change from Defence requirement for 11 more fighter squadrons by 2027. ‘Procurement’ Procedure to Defence ‘Acquisition’ 70 Hard to ignore Procedure is simply the Russian semantics, or it will usher in a factor in IAF mindset, - only time will tell. Given the 75 predominance of the Russian factor The magic of the loitering in India’s military munitions capability, it seems unlikely that India Loitering munitions will can be ‘weaned’ away be a gamechanger on the from this symbiotic future battlefield and their relationship. It won’t ability to combine situational be in India’s interest to awareness with target do so. engagement capability will be a vital addition to ground Tactical RUAS 78 units. in the Indian subcontinent The RUAS platform is a very complex one with even more complex payloads to cater for a variety of ISR func- tions. The industry has to step up in order to meet this requirement under DAP-2020. 8 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

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CONTENTS VOL XI, ISSUE IX, February 2021 84 To lease, or not to lease? EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Atmanirbharta 90 K SRINIVASAN for MSMEs in There have been at- EDITOR tempts to ensure how PRAKASH NANDA defence best to get VFM (Value MANAGING EDITOR for Money) for defence TIRTHANKAR GHOSH Greatest problem faced requirements. Leasing is CONSULTING EDITOR by the Indian forces one method of enhanc- M MURLIDHARAN, S. VASANTHAKRISHNAN ing defence capability, SUB-EDITOR-CUM-REPORTER is in maintaining the possibly at a lesser cost. AMARTYA SINHA complex systems and SENIOR PROOF READER Banning imports RAJESH VAID subsystems of their will boost up DESIGNER fighting platforms. domestic industry MOHIT KANSAL Foreign suppliers hold STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER us to ransom through A healthy domestic HEMANT RAWAT critical spares support. competition between capable industry design DIRECTOR 94 houses would unleash RAJIV SINGH an environment of PUBLISHING DIRECTOR innovation leading to RAKESH GERA successful development LEGAL ADVISOR of next-generation VASU SHARMA technologies. SUBSCRIPTION ALKA SHARMA 98 DISTRIBUTION BHUSHAN KOLI RIGHT ANGLE For advertising and sales enquiries, please contact : Vol XI, Issue IX, FEBRUARY 2021  `100 DEFENCE  DIPLOMACY  SECURITY Protecting 9810159332 www.geopolitics.in India’s Air For editorial inputs: [email protected] AERSO2P0EI2NC1DIAIAL Cover Illustration: Power Sudipto Sharma Editorial and Marketing Office JUGGLING Newseye Media Pvt. Ltd., TO CONQUER ! Cover Design: R-9, 1st Floor, Pratap Market, Jungpura B, Near Post Mohit Kansal Office, New Delhi -110014 Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is targeting an ambitious $25 billion The total number of pages All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources atmanirbhar defence industry with a in this issue is 100 we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers sizeable export component. Aerospace without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views is the key to that objective expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear. Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Archna Printers D-127, Okhla Indl Area Ph-1, New Delhi -110020, Readers are welcome to send their feedback at [email protected] 10 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in



INDIA 2021 EXPENSIVE BUT INDISPENSABLE AIRPOWER AMIT GUPTA argues why given the harsh economic challenges facing the country, which is not unique to India, the best way to afford an effective air force is to plan differently but smartly by going for techno-globalisation rather than futile techno-nationalism Air power today stands at a crossroads. continues to expand, the costs of purchasing, On the one hand, it is being used for operating, and maintaining aircraft is growing at an increasingly diverse set of missions; alarming rates. on the other, it is becoming harder for air forces and their democratically The high cost of aircraft and employing air elected governments to find the money to pay power is nothing new for as far back as 1980 a for prohibitively expensive weapons systems. set of reformers like John Boyd, Pierre Sprey, and Thus, apart from being used in combat situations, Franklin Spinney warned about how the costs of air forces are being used in missions as varied airpower were spiraling out of control because of as tracking illegal immigration, monitoring the demand for increasingly complex weapons human trafficking, preventing poaching, systems. These reformers argued that the US surveying environmental damage, and to provide armed forces were addicted to high technology surveillance capabilities to domestic security and complex weapon systems. Such weapons forces. At a different level, unmanned aircraft were so costly that relatively few could be bought. (drones) are changing the way that we think about Complexity made them hard to use and maintain, air operations. Yet while the range of missions leading to readiness problems and reduced sortie rates. Even worse, the reformers said, these 12 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 TOSHIRO AOKI complicated weapons were not as effective in wrote that democracies did not have famines A Taiwanese Air Force combat as simpler, cheaper ones. because their governments were accountable Mirage-2000 combat to the people and, therefore, could not ignore jet. India must look The reformers were partly right since the their wishes. During the Bihar famine of 1966 towards procuring some increasingly complex systems drove up the budgets and 1967, the Indian government of Indira second-hand warplanes and led to fewer weapons being purchased but, at Gandhi approached world leaders, especially to handle the challenge of the same time, some of these complex systems were Lyndon Johnson, to give India food aid. Without depleting number of fighter used with devastating effect in both the Gulf Wars, the intervention of the Indian government and squadrons Kosovo, and Afghanistan. Now, however, across the substantial international assistance, the impact western alliance, as well as in Russia, air forces face of the famine would have been far worse. In the challenge of maintaining force levels of highly contrast, from 1958-1962, the totalitarian regime expensive weaponry. The issue is further vitiated of Chairman Mao allowed the peasants in the by the demand across democracies to prefer butter Chinese countryside to starve and by the estimate over guns—especially in the era of Covid-19. of Jasper Becker, whose book Hungry Ghosts Guns vs butter: The additional impact of Coronavirus remains the classic account of the Chinese famine, The Nobel Prize winning economist Amartya Sen over 40 million Chinese perished. www.geopolitics.in February 2021 13

INDIA 2021 USAF A Fairchild Republic Democratic governments continue to prefer In 2021-2022 there will be considerable A-10 Thunderbolt-II putting butter over guns as best seen in Europe and pressure from publics to spend on healthcare attack aircraft of the US Canada where defence budgets and force levels in the form of vaccines, protective equipment, Air Force. The jet was have been slashed to allow for expenditure on ventilators, and medical staff. Given this demand extensively used in the social programmes. NATO countries are supposed one has to wonder how much can actually be spent Iraq and Afghanistan wars to spend 2 percent of their GDP on defence but on defence? India, for instance, has for the past according to a 2019 NATO press communique only decade spent 1.6 percent of GDP on defence and While the range the United States, Bulgaria, Greece, UK, Estonia, the country will have to make hard choices to try of missions Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland met this and handle the domestic challenge of Covid along continues to requirement—and barring the US, UK, Greece, with the border confrontation with China. Yet and Poland the rest are bit players in the alliance’s while the developmental imperative is pressing, expand, the costs forces. Far more capable militaries like France, nations are also looking to use air power in a never- of purchasing, Germany, Italy, and Spain were below the required growing range of operations. operating, and 2 percent with Madrid spending a measly 0.92 maintaining percent of GDP. For Europe and the democratic Air power today has multiple dimensions, is aircraft is growing world, Covid-19 will only put greater pressure on required in new range of contingencies, and has at alarming rates these governments to focus on domestic social become increasingly expensive and complex to welfare rather than military spending on expensive use. It is also no longer the sole function of air weapons. Witness the way the different western forces or restricted to the use of combat aircraft. nations reacted to Covid-19. In the United States, the Central Intelligence Agency has built its own air force and used it to By the time Coronavirus erupted around the eliminate terrorists in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and world most countries had set their 2020 budgets so Yemen. Law enforcement agencies around the it is only as the 2021-2022 budgets come through world now use unmanned aircraft for monitoring that we will feel the real impact of the pandemic on and surveillance. In Southern Europe, air forces— public spending. particularly the Italian Air Force—are being used to monitor the flow of illegal immigrants and Democracies like Germany, Singapore, South economic refugees across the Mediterranean. Yet Korea, New Zealand, Australia, Finland, and most while nations seek aircraft—both manned and notably Taiwan took the pandemic seriously unmanned—one has to wonder if they have the and got international praise for the handling of resources to procure such systems? the crisis. In contrast, three democracies—the The escalating cost of airpower United States, Brazil and Britain—were casual in Over the past thirty years two prominent trends their response to the pandemic by minimalising in airpower have been the escalating costs and the potential impact of the virus. In an amusing the growing complexity of aircraft. Back in the turn of events, Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro, 1970s, the United States designed and developed and Donald John Trump all contracted the virus the F-16 as a lightweight fighter—a low-cost plane belying the claim that the dangers of the virus were being exaggerated. 14 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 that was highly maneuverable and could be a foil 50 fighter (which was priced at an “affordable” $30 to the more expensive, complex, and versatile F-15 million). The deal was shot down by the British Eagle. Since then, however, only one plane has who provide technological components for the been developed to be part of a high-low mix and plane and have a weapons embargo on Argentina that is the Chinese JF-17 Thunder which gets sold thereby allowing them to exercise a veto on its sale. to the Pakistanis at a “friendship price” of around $26 million. More and more countries are cutting Even in trainer aircraft, the costs have back on the purchase of expensive airplanes and, escalated. Austria, which recently retired its instead, soldering on with their dated fleets while venerable Saab-105, is thinking hard about where they look for cheaper alternatives. it will be able to afford an affordable replacement in sufficient numbers. Even where countries are Uruguay, for example, is seeking to buy an seeking advanced weapons there are questions advanced trainer like, the Leonardo M 346FA, the about their ability to bring their acquisition plans Korean FA-50, or the Chinese L-15 attack trainer to fruition. France and Germany, for example, are none of which can be claim to be advanced fighter planning to develop a sixth-generation Future aircraft. In fact, the Uruguayan requirements Combat Air System that will have an interface are quite modest for, “The nation has placed two between artificial intelligence and human pilots. essential conditions on the manufacturers: the In fact, under the present contract, both manned aircraft must be \"zero hour\", brand new, and and unmanned vehicles are to be developed and equipped with a radar - to date the UAF has never they may even work in tandem. Yet the high costs had aircraft with radar - capable of offering the of developing such an aircraft may most likely see ability to conduct BVR (Beyond Visual Range) the programme being scrapped. missions at least.” Argentina, which is still flying The haves of air power a fleet of planes from the Falklands War, could not If one looks at the present international aviation afford to buy new F-16s and, instead, has sought to market, only a few countries—most particularly buy second-hand planes from Europe, old Israeli the United States and China—have the budgets to Kfirs, and even used F-16s. All of these deals have buy even a portion of what their armed services failed as has an effort to buy the South Korean FA-

INDIA 2021 Royal Air Force F-35Bs flying UK MOD The have nots in formation Apart from high costs, the fact is that most want for modernisation. The United States is countries requirements from air power are far During the pressing ahead with the F-35 programme and, more complex than the simple demand for combat Bihar famine at the same time, building a new version of the aircraft. Countries like Brazil and Norway now of 1966 and Eagle, the F-15EX. The F-15EX incorporates all need Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) 1967, the Indian the developments of the plane that were made drones to deal with their environmental concerns. government for foreign customers and could soldier on well Brazil needs to be able to surveil its large Amazon approached world into the 2030s as a delivery system of stand-off province to prevent poaching and environmental leaders, especially weapons which would permit it to deliver stand- degradation while Norway worries that given its Lyndon Johnson, off weapons over heavily defended air space. vast offshore oil resources one day it may face a to give India food huge oil-spill and then would need the right type China’s own aviation development is of aircraft to monitor it. Other countries need UAVs aid impressive. It essentially reverse-engineered to monitor human trafficking and the flow of illegal 6,000 MiG-19s and MiG-21s and thus laid the migrants. But perhaps the biggest shift in air power groundwork for an aviation industry that has has been the need to use UAVs in the fight against now built the J-10 and more futuristic planes like terror. the J-20 and J-31. Moreover, China’s economic growth allows it to invest in the development and It was the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) production of new aircraft—a luxury that most that first decided to use UAVs for aerial surveillance nations in the world no longer have as seen in the operations and later for prosecuting air strikes case of the western alliance and the F-35. against terrorists. In doing so the CIA, for all intent and purposes, became the sixth air force of the Going into the 2020s and 2030s, the backbone USA and, perhaps, the most effective one in the of NATO’s airpower was supposed to be the F-35 fight against terrorism. Lightning which is an advanced fighter that would have given the alliance’s air forces a common and Terrorism and insurgencies also brought out interoperable platform. The problem was that the limitations of modern combat aircraft and because the costs of the plane ballooned, the the need for more dedicated platforms that could Western nations, with ageing populations and counter such threats. Thus, in both Nigeria and strong social welfare programmes, were forced Afghanistan it became clear that planes like the to choose between buying aircraft or paying for Jaguar and the F-16 were of limited value against the welfare of their people (the guns vs. butter insurgents. Nigeria, therefore, bought the Super dilemma). The Canadians were the first to bail Tucano turboprop to take on Boko Haram while in out when they decided to cancel their F-35 Afghanistan the USAF gave Super Tucanos to the purchase, despite sunk costs, and, instead, bought Afghan air force because they have a long loiter mothballed F-18s from the Australians. Italy time and were, therefore, more useful for fighting followed by stating that it would not buy additional the Taliban. Until recently, the USAF was seeking F-35s and would even prefer to reduce its existing to buy either some T-6 Texan or Super Tucano order. turboprops to have a light attack aircraft but now the proposed purchase has been shifted to US Special Operations Command. And then there are all the subsystems that make for effective air warfare now. Pakistan’s JF- 17 is a low technology, cheap fix for the needs of the Pakistan Air Force (the plane, reportedly, was sold by the Chinese at the “friendship” price of $26 million). But what the PAF, by some accounts, has been able to do is integrate a beyond visual range capability to the plane making it a more formidable opponent for the Indian Air Force (IAF). Better data links and better radars are also part of the package needed now to make an air force effective. Options for India Like all democratic nations India faces the problem of guns vs butter and, as all real democracies do, it has opted to fund its social development initiatives. Both the Manmohan Singh and Modi governments have kept defence expenditure under 1.6 percent of GDP event though the erstwhile planning commission used to plan for 3 percent of GDP being allocated to defence. This figure may be even lower if one takes out the amounts spent on paying pensions. This has led to pressures being put on the armed forces as they seek to modernise their 16 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 equipment to meet the two-front threat posed by is now thinking of buying mothballed MiG-29s WIKIMEDIA COMMONS China and Pakistan. from Russia. One has to question why the MiG-29s are being sought since the Russians have a poor Two Chinese Chengdu J-20s India’s solutions have been in delaying record with modernising aircraft and in recent making a public appearance weapons purchases as can be seen from the 15 times India has been treated harshly by Moscow. years it took to buy the Rafale. Or, as again in the The Russians refused to transfer the technology Far more capable case of the Rafale, the government reduced the for the Su-57 that was to be jointly developed militaries like order because it could not afford to buy the full and even locked the design to a single seater even complement of aircraft. Third, all political parties though the IAF had stated that it wanted a 2-seater France, Germany, have bought into the argument that modern version of the aircraft. The MiG-29 itself is seen by Italy, and Spain weapons can be produced domestically. Lastly, air forces as expensive to maintain and has smoky were below the despite very good assessments done by the Public engines that makes the plane visible from far away required 2 percent Accounts Committee and the Comptroller and (after the reunification of East and West Germany, Auditor General with their reports on defence the Luftwaffe got rid of its MiG-29s, even they were with Madrid procurement, production, and usage, the Indian got for free, because they were a maintenance spending a measly government continues with the same pathologies nightmare). in its military modernisation efforts. 0.92 percent of The planes the IAF should be looking for are GDP India’s long, laborious, and ultimately self- second hand Mirage 2000s. Qatar, a few years defeating efforts at aircraft procurement have led back, offered its Mirage fleet to India but the to the weakening of the country’s defence efforts. government claimed the price was too high. Those It took 20 years to procure the Hawk trainer and planes are still available. And then there are the in the meantime the air force’s effort to train its older Mirages in the French air force that have incoming pilots was hindered. The Rafale should been well maintained. The plane has a good war have been in service in the 2012-2015 time- record, both in India and elsewhere, the IAF is frame which would have meant that they could happy with it, and if the then government had not have been used in the Balakot attack but both been foolish, the IAF would have had two brand the Manmohan Singh and Modi governments new squadrons by the early 2000s. Additionally, hesitated over the procurement. Now, the IAF there should be serious discussion with the IAF would like to procure 114 more aircraft although on what subsystems are needed to make the given the high cost, the Chief of Defence Staff current systems more effective. Part of that would has put the procurement on hold. It is likely, be buying an AESA radar and BVR missile that therefore, that a new batch of high-tech fighters would give the air force greater capability but also may not enter service until 2030. By that time commonality between aircraft. the air threat will have changed significantly as China’s aircraft industry will have supplied the In the medium term, an easy step can be taken PLAAF with a number of 5th and maybe even 6th to improve the IAF’s capability. The government generation fighters. The IAF and the government have to come up with a long-term plan where mission effectiveness and cost effectiveness are achieved. The way to achieve this is to decide what weapons and systems are needed quickly, what can be built at home, and where should there be collaboration with foreign partners. The immediate requirement are new fighters that help make a qualitative difference between the IAF and the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). While the IAF and the government may keep talking about the China threat, the recent air skirmish after Balakot showed that the PAF can achieve surprise and the IAF needs to up its game to deter Islamabad. The way to begin this process is to purchase more Rafales since the aircraft would give the IAF a qualitative edge with its advanced avionics and the fact that it has beyond visual range weapons, particularly the Meteor missile. It is unfortunate that the Rafale deal took so long to come to fruition and then led to a much smaller purchase of 36 aircraft (barely 2 squadrons). Doubling the deal would be the first step for India to start to regain the qualitative edge against the PAF. Second, the government should be looking at what used and mothballed aircraft it can purchase from air forces around the world. The government has bought old Jaguars from around the world and www.geopolitics.in February 2021 17

INDIA 2021 A Super Tucano turboprop USAF light attack aircraft in flight. It is a far cheaper option for executing anti-terrorism operations when compared with high-end multirole fighter jets Balakot and has committed to buy 83 indigenously built in the complexity of weapons technology. In both Galwan while Tejas but for the plane to be a viable combat cases HAL does not deliver. Despite all the brave aircraft it has to be produced in larger numbers, talk about self-dependency and indigenisation, necessary on a quicker delivery schedule, and with better aircraft produced in India have a high foreign stimulants are avionics and weaponry. HAL’s production has content—after all the engine and avionics of the not sufficient been very slow—about 8 aircraft every year— Tejas come from abroad. Then there are serious cause to allow the which means to put together 4 squadrons would questions about the reliability of the engines on government to take up to 8 years. Further, it is not easy to the domestically produced Su-30s. So, what do increase defence modernise the Tejas to include a better radar, a you do about HAL? expenditure as it more powerful engine and a BVR capability for would affect social the aircraft. Putting in a new engine is not like One easy thing to do is to hold HAL to higher programmes swapping a piece of Lego for another. Instead, standards and expect it to raise its production it will require some redesign of the airplane and and quality standards. The government needs to that could take years. If the AESA radar is French ask hard questions like, for example, why cannot or Swedish (the one bedded in the Gripen can talk HAL produce 16 Tejas a year since they have been to Russian, American, and European missiles) it building the plane for over a decade now? Also, will be able to talk to the Meteor missile. But if the the IAF has to be asked what is the bare minimum radar comes from elsewhere, it will take years to it can accept from HAL in terms of the quality get the software to talk to that of the missiles and and capabilities of the Tejas while being given a India being India is quite capable of going with a guarantee that the plane would be subsequently cheap option rather than one that would be quick upgraded as the Jaguars and MiG-21s were. and make the most sense. Lastly, in certain cases you have to go for In the long run, three major steps have to be techno-globalisation rather than futile techno- taken to improve the IAF’s capabilities and they nationalism. India wants a fifth or sixth generation all require being imaginative and dealing with fighter and had pinned its hopes futilely on the thorny issues. The thorny issue is that defence Russian Su-57 programme. The French and expenditure will continue to be low unless a the Germans are now building a fifth or sixth major ground shifting event like Kargil happens. generation fighter, the Future Combat Air System. Balakot and Galwan while necessary stimulants They are also talking of co-developing an armed are not sufficient cause to allow the government drone. India needs both and, unlike the Russians, to increase defence expenditure since this would France and Germany will deliver. To sum up, necessarily come at the cost of social programmes. affordable airpower will require smart thinking. The other thorny issue is that HAL has Amit Gupta is an Associate Professor in the considerable influence with the government which USAF Air War College. The views in this article thinks it provides the country with an autonomous are his and do not necessarily reflect those of the defence capability and leads to significant leaps Department of Defense or the USAF 18 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

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At Dassault • Co-Design to Target allows Original Equipment Systemes, we are working closely with the Government to Manufacturers (OEMs) to integrate disparate tools, democratize 3D design and engineering tools through organizations and processes into a single stream to greater accessibility and availability of the technology optimize form, fit and function in an integrated System for upcoming defense corridors, MSMEs and startups in Digital Mock-up (DMU). This System DMU can avoid India. many of the integration issues that significantly impact • Apart from the MSMEs, the startups in this industry are the cost and schedule of a program. also a major drivers of innovation, especially in Drones or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). With the right support, Please connect with us on mentoring and enablement, the current generation of ([email protected]) with a subject line- 3DS at Aero India 2021.

INDIA 2021 IAF INDIGENISATION REALISTIC TARGETS ARE NEEDED India cannot and must not expect complete indigenisation. The tendency to view Indian efforts in terms of indigenous content is singularly unhelpful. While increasing indigenisation is necessary, economies of scale, costs and realistic appraisal of the level technology transfer have to be taken into consideration, argues SANJAY BADRI MAHARAJ HAL produced HAL has invested enormous efforts of the Jaguar (84 per cent of its engine) and over and produces into phased indigenisation of 96 per cent of the MiG-21 Bison engine, again by MiG-21, MiG-27 license-manufactured products. This content. and Su-30MKi has come at a considerable cost, but aircraft under it has meant that license-production In more recent times, HAL has achieved a 75 per license from the in India is not mere assembly but involves a cent indigenisation by content of the Su-30MKI (60 USSR/ Russia, progressive increase in indigenous content. HAL per cent by value), 72 per cent indigenisation by Jaguars and has produced hundreds of combat aircraft and content of the BAE Hawk (42 per cent by value) and Hawks from the helicopters under license and has achieved a high 73 per cent by content of the Do-228 (40 percent by UK, Dornier Do- degree of indigenisation in these projects. value). Contractual decisions as to indigenisation 228 from Germany levels by content and value are decided by the and Chetak HAL has also consistently failed to achieve priority to be given to the project and the timelines and Cheetah indigenisation targets set for the Su-30MKI involved. helicopters from programme with raw material production of the aircraft beginning later than expected and even However, there is little doubt that HAL has France now the import content by value for the type is at been somewhat delinquent in keeping to delivery 40 per cent. Indigenisation levels have been at best schedules with time lags being the norm rather modest for HAL’s license-manufactured products than the exception. The Su-30MKI project, for with even such long-produced items such as example, has been delayed by three years while the the BAE Hawk and the Dornier Do-228 having a upgrade of the Jaguar and Mirage 2000 fleets being disproportionate import content by value – 60 undertaken by HAL have been delayed by five and per cent in the case of the Do-228 and 58 per cent two years, respectively. in the case of the Hawk. Whether this was due to poor contract negotiation or is a failing of HAL is HAL has two indigenous designs in production: debatable but it is undeniable that HAL’s licensed the Light Combat Aircraft Tejas and the Advanced produced aircraft have a relatively high import Light Helicopter Dhruv. The former is 75 per cent content by value which in part contributes to their indigenous by content and 60 per cent indigenous high cost compared to direct imports. by value while the latter is 75 per cent indigenous by content and 52 per cent indigenous by value. HAL produced and produces MiG-21, MiG- While over 150 Dhruv helicopters have been 27 and Su-30MKi aircraft under license from the produced to date, plus additional numbers of a USSR/Russia, Jaguars and Hawks from the UK, weaponised version called the Rudra, only ten Dornier Do-228 from Germany and Chetak and Tejas combat aircraft have entered service with No. Cheetah helicopters from France. The degree 45 squadron of the Indian Air Force. of indigenisation achieved is broken down into indigenisation by content and indigenisation This slow production rate is causing problems by value. By these measures, in the past, India for the IAF as it seeks to rebuild its combat strength achieved 90 per cent indigenisation by content of around a strong nucleus of modern combat the Chetak (72 per cent of its engine), 88 per cent aircraft of which the Tejas is a critical component. On the plus side, the Tejas has been cleared for a wide variety of air-to-ground ordnance while for 20 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 HAL air defence tasks, it has completed integration and the very threshold of success, it behooves both HAL HJT-36 Sitara testing with R-73 and Derby air-to-air missiles. agencies to work in synergy to ensure that not intermediate jet trainer in flight These latter two systems have been cleared for use only is production scaled-up to meet the target with the in-service IAF aircraft. Forty Tejas Mk.1 of 16 aircraft per annum, but also to ensure the Slow production aircraft are on order with orders for an additional successful and prompt completion of the Tejas rate is causing 83 of an improved Mk.1A variant being nearing Mk.1A project. The Tejas project has come too far problems for the contract signing. to be allowed to stumble or fall at this stage. IAF as it seeks to Realistic targets as well as JV partnerships are rebuild its combat HAL has an opportunity to reclaim its position needed strength around of producing indigenously designed aircraft as On November 8, 2016, the Indian Ministry of a strong nucleus well as be a participant in the further development Defence, Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) of modern combat of the Tejas. Besides the Mk.1A variant, which cleared the production of 83 Tejas Mk.1A aircraft aircraft of which should be accorded priority, the two-seat trainer at an estimated cost of $7.5 billion. While it the Tejas is a version of the Tejas, offers the prospect of should be noted that DAC approval does not equal critical component emerging into a Lead-in Fighter Trainer (LIFT) in authorisation of such funds for production – for the league of the Korean KAI T-50 Golden Eagle which the approval of the Cabinet Committee while retaining the core combat capabilities of its on Security (CCS) is required, at one stroke, the single-seat stablemate. This would fill a gap in the DAC approval offers HAL to become an integral IAF’s existing training programme which while participant in the development of the Tejas – as adequately equipped with basic and advanced opposed to just the production agency. It also trainers, is compelled to use two-seat variants of offers HAL the opportunity to develop variants combat aircraft for roles more usefully satisfied by of the aircraft which may prolong the production a LIFT. Moreover, HAL would invariably participate run beyond the total of the 40 aircraft currently in any upgrade of IOC aircraft to FOC standard. authorised (20 IOC authorised in 2006 and 20 FOC authorised in 2010) and 83 aircraft approved The stakes for HAL and the ADA are very by the DAC. high. The Tejas project is a litmus test of the ability of Indian designers and production agencies to produce a viable combat aircraft. On www.geopolitics.in February 2021 21

INDIA 2021 Analog cockpit controls of WIKIPEDIA a Dornier Do-228 aircraft On November The Tejas Mk.1A – for which a prototype flying and it is anticipated that up to 68 could be 8, 2016, the previously designated Tejas Mk.1P was proposed by ordered. Indian Ministry HAL — is designed to correct many of the existing of Defence shortcomings in the FOC aircraft. Planned to be India has made tentative steps: it has and Defence equipped with an Active Electronically Scanned indigenously developed replacements where Acquisition Array (AESA) radar and electronic warfare systems technology was denied. This idea of “reinventing Council (DAC) currently missing from the FOC Tejas Mk.1, the the wheel” has been a major problem with many cleared the Tejas Mk.1A may be the ultimate development of of India’s defence products – the Arjun MBT and production of the basic Tejas airframe given its lack of internal the Tejas LCA are two such examples – where the 83 Tejas Mk.1A volume without necessitating major redesign. time taken to indigenise systems has contributed aircraft at an While there is a proposed Mk.2 variant of the Tejas inordinately to the delays suffered by both estimated cost of with upgraded General Electric F414 engines, platforms. It is interesting to note that the Tejas – $7.5 billion this seems to be some time off in the future and 60 per cent indigenous by value – is perhaps more remains a project essentially in potentia. “indigenous” than SAABs JAS-39 Gripen which may be some 40 per cent indigenous by value It would appear, from statements emanating owing to the much wiser approach adopted by from HAL, that the Mk.1A has been proposed SAAB of subcontracting work to external suppliers to the IAF by the company itself rather than the and acting as a systems integrator rather than a ADA. However, development of the Mk.1A will manufacturer of every component. Needless to require close collaboration between HAL and the say, there will always be some systems – missiles ADA. To date, HAL has issued most if not all public in particular – where technology transfer, even statements regarding the project with the ADA of manufacture, may be limited. In this regard, working towards the FOC. This should be a cause India has done remarkably well in indigenising for concern as no contract has been signed. its tactical and strategic missiles which are now overwhelmingly indigenous by value and by HALs efforts to produce training aircraft, component. Their successful manufacture by however, has not been as successful. A project to India’s DPSUs is noteworthy. produce an Intermediate Jet Trainer, the HJT-36, Tempering expectations started with much promise but spin trials showed India is desirous for OEMs to provide their most significant design defects. With the IAF adopting advanced technologies for manufacture in India. a two-stage training programme based on the This is unrealistic. As has been noted before, PC-7 and the Hawk, there was no requirement for intellectual property and proprietary rights are the HJT-36 and the project, while ostensibly still critical to any company and to expect one to part alive, has virtually ground to a halt. The HTT-40 with these to any significant extent is patently turboprop trainer is designed to complement the PC-7 in IAF service. Two prototypes are currently 22 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 HAL Dhruv helicopter’s PIB production line in Bengaluru unrealistic. Moreover, the expectation that these such limits placed on spares manufacture and India must temper strategic partnerships will bring significant maintenance facilities. its expectations, improvements to India’s ability to design and forge appropriate produce world-class major military platforms is Yet even with the limitations placed on partnerships and also unrealistic. cooperation by certain OEMs, the potential for appreciate that improvement in manufacturing technology indigenisation Rather, expectations have to be scaled down and quality control is something that cannot be is not only about and some reason injected into the discourse. understated. This has the potential to improve the manufacturing India’s object cannot be self-reliance through overall efficiency and quality of Indian defence platforms but strategic partnerships. That will not happen if self- products. If this does not lead to indigenous must include reliance is taken to be high levels of indigenisation design capability in the short term, the boost manufacture of and complete independence of design and to manufacturing capability will still be of spares and MRO manufacture. This is simply impossible and will considerable value to India’s defence industry. This not be achieved through the strategic partner is particularly the case in the private sector which facilities model. It will also deter some foreign OEMs has little experience in manufacturing defence from participating as the fear of losing control of items. Gradually, improved manufacturing proprietary technologies will be too great. processes, greater efficiency and quality control will have a decisive positive impact. Instead, there must be a realisation that strategic partnerships with OEMs, whether for Further, India cannot and must not expect license production of items or for joint-venture complete indigenisation. The tendency to view production efforts, will lead to an improvement in Indian efforts in terms of indigenous content defence manufacturing without a corresponding is singularly unhelpful. While increasing increase in defence design capability. For the latter, indigenisation is necessary, economies of scale, a new approach through joint-ventures to develop costs and realistic appraisal of the level technology India-specific products. In such projects it may be transfer have to be taken into consideration. possible to strike the appropriate balance between Constant bemoaning of indigenisation securing manufacturing technology and certain achievements without such context is not aspects of design technology. helpful. As India moves forward, it must temper its expectations, forge appropriate partnerships It cannot be overemphasised, however, that the and appreciate that indigenisation is not only potential for sub-component and sub-assembly about manufacturing platforms but must include manufacture, LRU manufacture and repair plus manufacture of spares and MRO facilities. MRO facilities exist. In all these areas, any OEM stands to benefit enormously from partnerships The writer is a Trinidad-based strategic with Indian companies. Even if there are limits analyst to technology transfer, there ought not to be www.geopolitics.in February 2021 23

INDIA 2021 BEING SELF-RELIANT IN DEFENCE The ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ campaign is speeding up the growth of indigenous defence manufacturing capability in India, writes C SANTHOSH It was welcome news, early in January when Indian firms in the defence and aerospace sector. the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) When viewed along with the success of indigenous headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi defence programmes such as BrahMos, Akash granted its approval for the purchase of 83 Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) system, which have Tejas Mk-1A fighter aircraft from Hindustan also received large orders, it is clear that the Aeronautics Limited (HAL). Procurement approval government’s efforts to create a credible defence has been granted for purchase of 73 LCA Tejas manufacturing base in India are bearing fruit. Mk-1A single-seat fighters and 10 LCA Tejas Mk-1 Another important order that is expected to twin-seat trainer aircraft at a cost of `45,696 crore. fructify soon will be the procurement of 56 C-295 The majority of the contract amount will go to transport aircraft from Airbus, which has partnered 24 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 IAF Chief RKS (MLU) for 17 Indian Coast Guard (ICG) Dornier Bhadauria onboard a Do-228s. There will be a substantial amount of work for Indian companies as part of the contract Tejas fighter signed with HAL Kanpur in February 2020. HAL will receive the first Do-228 for upgrade work in September 2021 and is slated to complete the upgrade by July 2022. As part of the MLU, HAL will fit several modern sensors and upgrade the aircraft with a glass cockpit, new Mission Management System, Pollution Surveillance System (PSS), 12.7 mm Gun, five blade propellers etc. HAL is planned to complete the MLU of all 17 aircraft by December 2025. According to data announced by MoD, in the last five years alone (2014-2019), the Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) Indian Air Force will soon acquire 56 Airbus C-295 transport planes from Airbus IAF AIRBUS Procurement approval has with Tata Group as its Indian production agency has delivered 45 different systems/equipment been granted for for manufacture of 40 aircraft in India. The entire such as sonars, radars, software-defined radios purchase of 73 deal will be for 56 aircraft and the first 16 aircraft (SDR), missile systems, gun systems, munitions, LCA Tejas Mk- will arrive as fly-aways. The Ministry of Defence bridging equipment, etc. In a further boost to 1A single-seat (MoD) recently announced that the deal was at Indian industry, since 2014, the MoD has inked fighters and 10 the CFA approval stage and a contract was likely more than 180 contracts worth more than `1,96,000 LCA Tejas Mk-1 to be signed in the near future. The C-295 deal will crore. Between 2016-2019 Indian defence exports twin-seat trainer provide a massive boost to Indian private sector for supply of Patrol Vessels, Helicopters, Sonars aircraft at a cost industry and its progress will be watched closely. and Radars, Avionics, Radar Warning Receivers of `45,696 crore. (RWR), Small Arms, Small Caliber Ammunition, The majority There is now a much greater emphasis on Grenades, Telecommunication equipment, Coastal of the contract procurement of indigenously designed and Surveillance, Simulators, Bullet Proof Jackets and amount will go to developed defence equipment than ever before, Body Armour have amounted to `10,690 crore. Indian firms along with a strong push to promote defence According to the Govt, defence exports have manufacturing within India. Modernisation of crossed `17,000 crore in the last two years. defence equipment also provides useful work Fighter aircraft programmes and skill building opportunities to Indian firms. The latest announcement of CCS clearance for HAL is now in the midst of a Mid-Life Upgrade Tejas Mk-1A procurement paves the way for HAL to move ahead with greater speed on production related activities. Along with the contract for 83 Tejas fighters, the Government has also approved an expenditure of `1,202 Crore for development of maintenance infrastructure for the fleet. The large Tejas order will allow Indian defence www.geopolitics.in February 2021 25

INDIA 2021 industry to not only build their skills in the realm in March 2019 and deliveries of FOC standard of supersonic fighter aircraft production but also aircraft are now underway and FOC was obtained provide much needed economies of scale. `1,202 in February 2019. The value of IOC contract for crore has been allocated for development of 20 Tejas aircraft eventually amounted to `5362.17 maintenance infrastructure for Tejas by the IAF crores, while the value of the FOC contract for 20 that will enable them handle repairs or servicing Tejas aircrafts was `5989.4 crores. at base depots. This will not only help enhance flight line availability but also reduce aircraft repair HAL has almost completed production of its turnaround times. order for manufacture of 222 SU-30 MKIs under license from Russia. Deliveries are under the final Tejas Mk-1A aircraft will be substantially Block IV contract were to have been completed last improved on the earlier Mk-1 variants due to year. HAL is now focussing on SU-30 MKI overhaul incorporation of an Active Electronically Scanned and also the pending upgrade of SU-30 MKIs. It is Array (AESA) radar supplied by Elta of Israel, also awaiting a final batch of orders for the SU-30 incorporation of new weapons including MBDA’s MKI at Nashik and it is expected that at least 12 more ASRAAM Close Combat Missile (CCM) and DRDO aircraft will be ordered. HAL also played a key role Astra Beyond Visual Range Air-to-Air Missile in integrating the BrahMos Air Launched Cruise (BVRAAM), a new Electronic Warfare (EW) Suite Missile (ALCM) on the SU-30 MKI, in addition to and Air to Air Refuelling (AAR). The Mk-1A will clearing the use of the Astra BVRAAM on the SU- also benefit from extensive feedback provided 30 MKI. This experience will be of vital importance by the two IAF squadrons operating the Mk-1. A when it comes to integration of a lighter variant key component in future Tejas fighters will be the of the BrahMos for Tejas. BrahMos integration on Uttam AESA radar. The multimode, solid-state Su-30MKI was fully completed in 2019 and IAF active phased array fire control radar with scalable engineers undertook software development and architecture is being developed by DRDO and integration of the missile on the aircraft, while HAL will be capable of tracking multiple targets with carried out the complex mechanical and electrical high accuracy suitable for firing missiles with modifications that needed to be done on the interleaved air to air, air to ground and air to sea airframe. The air launched BrahMos missile is a 2.5 modes for all terrain operation. tonne supersonic air-to-surface cruise missile with ranges close to 300 km. HAL has already received orders for 40 Tejas Rotary Wing Mk-1 aircraft, split across 20 in Initial Operation HAL’s Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) Clearance (IOC) versions and another 20 in Final has now spawned several variants including the Operation Clearance (FOC) versions. The contract MkIII, Mk IV ‘Rudra’ armed version and maritime for 20 IOC standard Tejas Mk-1s was signed in versions of MkIII for the ICG and Indian Navy (IN). March 2006 and deliveries, were originally to have Orders in the coming years for HAL helicopters been completed by December 2011. The order for from the Indian armed forces, across Dhruv MkIII, 20 FOC standard aircraft, was placed in December MkIV, LCH, LUH and Ka-226T will be close to 650 2010 and deliveries were to be completed by 2016. helicopters. Certification of the utility military These orders consisted of 16 fighters and 4 trainers variant was completed in 2002 and that of the civil in each contract. variant was completed in 2004. The deliveries of production series helicopters commenced from IOC for Tejas Mk-1 was obtained in 2013 and the 2001-02 onwards. HAL has produced more than 300 first IOC standard aircraft were inducted into the IAF’s No. 45 Squadron, in July 2016. The production Ski-jump test of LCA of 16 fighters in IOC configuration was completed Tejas at INS Hansa The large Tejas INDIAN NAVY order will allow Indian defence industry to not only build their skills in the realm of supersonic fighter aircraft production but also provide much needed economies of scale 26 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 Dhruv helicopters till date and continues to receive will now be able to reach a peak production rate of WIKIMEDIA orders with the navy ordering 32 helicopters in 30 helicopters per year. December 2017, the IAF ordering 41 in March 2017 Two IAF Sukhoi-30 MKIs and the Army ordering 40 ALH (22 ALH Mk III and The LUH programme is also proceeding during a ‘Thach Weave’ 18 Mk IV Rudra) in August 2017. HAL is confident smoothly, with HAL’s new light helicopter, manoeuvre of receiving additional Dhruv orders in the years displaying excellent high-altitude performance. to come. HAL is now in the middle of executing IOC was obtained in February 2020. Three flying HAL has almost a 72-helicopter order from the navy, coast guard prototypes have been built and the LUH will completed and army, which it received in 2017. These orders be capable of flying at 220 Kmph. It will have a were for 40 Dhruv MkIII helicopters for the service ceiling of 6.5 Km and a range of 350 Km production of Indian Army (IA), 16 Dhruv MkIII helicopters with 500 kg payload. High altitude trials by HAL, its order for for the ICG and 16 Dhruv MkIII helicopters for IAF and Army the test pilots were completed in manufacture of the Indian Navy. HAL has completed production August-September 2019, with a comprehensive 222 SU-30 MKIs of the army order for 22 Dhruv MkIII utility test plan executed at Leh (3300m) in temperatures under license helicopters. HAL has commenced production up to International Standard Atmosphere (ISA) from Russia. of the helicopters for the ICG and delivery of the +32-degree C. The rigorous test flights also Deliveries are first two helicopters is planned for January 2021 included envelope expansion, performance and under the final and all 16 helicopters on order are planned to be flying quality demonstrations. During the trials, an Block IV contract delivered by September 2021. The Dhruv MkIII LUH lifted off from Leh and demonstrated its hot were to have been helicopters for the ICG and navy will be fitted with and high hover performance at Daulat Beg Oldie completed last state-of-the-art maritime sensors and systems (DBO) Advanced Landing Ground (ALG) at 5000m such as Integrated Architecture Display System followed by another forward helipad (5500m at ISA year (IADS), surveillance radar, electro-optic infrared +27degree C). Hot weather trials at Nagpur in 2018, (EO-IR) pod, Automatic Identification system cold weather trials at Leh in 2019, sea level trials (AIS), 12.7mm cabin mounted gun, High Intensity at Chennai in 2018 and at Puducherry in 2019. The Search Light (HISL) etc. These helicopters will be LUH has complied with all the requirements of the used to undertake shore and ship borne operations users and with the completion of hot and high- such as Maritime Surveillance, Search and Rescue altitude testing, it is close to operational clearance (SAR), Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC), Casualty certification. Evacuation (CASEVAC), logistics support to ships as well as pollution response sorties in the Area of HAL is also continuing work on the Indian Responsibility (AoR). Multi Role Helicopter (IMRH). The project, which is expected to cost `10,000 crore, is proposed At present the indigenous content on Dhruv as a replacement to the existing medium lift Mk-III helicopters is approximately 60 percent helicopters of the army and navy, such as Mi-17s, and HAL is progressively trying to increase this. Kamov and Seaking, which are due to be phased In addition, it is estimated that almost 80 percent out from service by 2030. A full-scale mock-up of the components used on production of Dhruv of the IMRH was shown at Aero India 2019. HAL helicopters, is today being outsourced by HAL to has also entered into a Joint Venture with Russian private sector firms and Defence Public Sector Units (DPSU). The multi-role 5.5-tonne weight class Dhruv helicopters in their MK III and MK IV variants are powered by two ARDIDEN 1H1 (Shakti) engines, while earlier Mk I and Mk II variants feature TM-333-2B2 powerplants. The Dhruv helicopter is produced in skid and wheeled versions. In the wheeled version- options for fixed and retractable undercarriages are available. Company officials, state that there is also good potential for a Dhruv Civil variant. HAL is now looking to offer a new more advanced and upgraded version of Dhruv MkIII for the civil market, which will have a modern glass cockpit and a Safran Helicopter Engines TM 333 2B2 powerplant. HAL’s Light Combat Helicopter (LCH) and Light Utility Helicopter (LUH) are now close to entering service. LCH prototypes were also deployed on the Himalayan borders in 2020. HAL has submitted a quotation against the Request for Proposal (RFP) for supply of an initial batch 15 LCH (10 for IAF and 5 for army) and has already started production for the same. These 15 helicopters will be followed by more than 150 series production examples. HAL has built a new production hangar that has augmented the LCH production capacity, which www.geopolitics.in February 2021 27

INDIA 2021 A scaled-down model of WIKIPEDIA DRDO’s NETRA AEW&C HAL’s Dhruv Helicopters and Rosoboronexport for supply of Embraer EMB-145 platform on which a DRDO Advanced Light 200 Ka-226T helicopters. HAL has responded to a Active Array Antenna Unit (AAAU) is fitted on top Helicopter (ALH) Request for Proposal (RFP) issued by the Ministry of the fuselage. The Netra AEW&C was developed has now spawned of Defence (MoD). by the Bangalore-based CABS for the Indian Air several variants AEW&C and AWACS Force. Three modified EMB-145 aircraft were to be including the There has been a long-standing Indian effort to developed. DRDO handed over the second of three MkIII, Mk IV design and develop homegrown Airborne Early indigenously designed Airborne Early Warning and ‘Rudra’ armed Warning and Control (AEW&C) and Airborne Control (AEW&C) system, Netra, to the Indian Air Warning and Control System (AWACS) platforms. Force (IAF) on 11 September 2019 to augment the version and However, this has proved to be a highly challenging service’s network centric capabilities. The system maritime versions undertaking and it would perhaps been better for was delivered to Bhatinda Air Force Station in of MkIII for the the IAF to have first sourced similar platforms from Punjab. EMB-145 based AEW&C/AWACS versions ICG and Indian abroad, operated them for a period of time and are already in operation with Air Forces of Brazil, then proceed with an indigenous solution with the Mexico and Greece. Navy (IN) lessons learnt. In December, the MoD announced the grant of Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) by the Netra’s primary equipment comprises of an Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) led by Defence AESA radar which provides 240° coverage and a Minister Rajnath Singh for procurement of six surveillance range of more than 250 km. It also AEW&C Mk-2 aircraft with associated equipment carries a secondary surveillance radar, electronic under the ‘Buy (Indian-IDDM)’ category. Unlike and communication countermeasures, beyond the previous choice of Brazilian airframer line-of-sight data links, satellite communication Embraer’s EMB-145 for the Netra AEW&C, this time systems, advanced Identification Friend-or-Foe it has been decided to proceed with six pre-owned (IFF) system. Air-to-air refuelling for achieving Airbus A-319/321 aircraft from Air India. With the extended endurance has also been demonstrated. mission system design and development as well The IAF’s AWACS and AEW&C platforms area also as maintenance of the system to be carried out fully integrated into the Integrated Air Command indigenously, there will be a substantial amount of and Control System (IACCS). The IACCS is a fully work for Indian firms. indigenous project which will integrate all sensors to give composite Air Situation Picture (ASP) The IAF now operates a fleet of three A-50 I and aids in quick decision making. The AEW&C Phalcon AWACS, which features Israeli radars and programme received project sanction from the avionics on a Russian IL-76 platform in addition to CCS in October 2004. The AEW&C System would two‘Netra’ AEW&C platforms. Netra uses a Brazilian comprise of a Primary Radar (PR), Secondary Surveillance Radar (SSR), Electronic Support 28 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 Measures (ESM) system, and Communication form of Transfer of Technology of the latest systems Vice Chief of Air Staff, Air Support Measures (CSM) system, Self-Protection and solutions as an area for emerging export Marshal Harjit Singh Arora Suits (SPS), Mission Communication System (MCS) opportunities. It is also making efforts to establish along with the crew of Light and Data Links on board Embraer-145 aircraft. a long-term supply chain relationship with global Combat Helicopter during players. his visit to forward bases in DRDO has also been pursuing a highly Ladakh on August 7, 2020 ambitious AWACS India programme, for which In the airborne domain, BEL’s Electronic an Airbus A330 aircraft was originally the chosen Warfare (EW) equipment have proven themselves PIB platform, though its fate now appears uncertain. and the company is playing a key role in IAF The AWACS-India aircraft would be fitted with development of indigenous EW suites for airborne highly sophisticated sensors for locating airborne applications, Directed Infra-Red Counter Measure It is estimated and sea-surface targets and detecting hostile (DIRCM), Combined Interrogator and Transponder that almost 80 electronic and radio emissions. It would also (CIT), CLIFF, EOS CoMPASS, etc. BEL also supplies per cent of the provide advance warning against approaching dipping sonar and airborne sonars for the Indian components used low flying hostile targets and its sensors would Navy as well. Indian developments in Active on production of provide comprehensive information to onboard Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radars, radar Dhruv helicopters, mission controllers and ground stations through a for Quick Reaction Surface-to-Air Missile, radars is today being sophisticated communication data link. for automatic detection of first-round location of outsourced by Prepared for growth artillery weapons (Weapon Locating Radar) and HAL to private Defence Public Sector Undertaking (DPSU) border surveillance and Detection of low flying sector firms and Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) is emerging as targets (like Battlefield Surveillance Radar and Air Defence Public a major beneficiary of the Government of India’s Defence Fire Control Radar - Atulya) have been Sector Units (GoI) ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ initiative. Several some of the highlights of BEL. The company important defence programmes of BEL are being now boasts a wide portfolio of ground-based (DPSU) undertaken in partnership with the Ministry radars, such as a version of its Weapon Locating of Defence (MoD) and Defence Research & Radar developed especially for operations in Development Organisation (DRDO), which has mountainous terrain, KU Band SATCOM – vehicle resulted in numerous successes with regards to based; X-PAR compact version, high altitude Surface to Air Missile (SAM) systems, ground shelters, missile containers, indigenous fire control based radars and various defence electronics. BEL system, and Air Defence Tactical Control Radar is also making a greater push in SE Asian export (ADTCR). markets and is looking specially to develop new markets in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), “BEL As the Indian leader in military has operationalised overseas marketing offices communications, BEL will benefit from the armed in Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Oman and Myanmar. forces drive to upgrade their communication The DPSU has also expanded its Singapore and infrastructure with new Software Defined Radios New York Regional Offices to handle marketing (SDR), single box communication solution, secure activities,” says Anandi Ramalingam, Director versatile IP terminal, Advanced Landing Ground (Marketing). The Government is encouraging defence exports through many policy initiatives and has set a target of `35,000 crores by 2024- 25. BEL has been exporting products such as Communication Systems, Coastal Surveillance System, Missile Systems, Radars, Electronic Warfare Systems, Electro Optic Systems and Electro Optic Fire Control Systems, Radar Finger Printing System, Naval Systems, Radar Warning Receivers, Electronic Voting Machines and various other equipment to USA, UK, Russia, Italy, Brazil, Germany, France, Israel, Indonesia, Honduras, Malaysia, Maldives, Mauritius, Myanmar, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa and many other friendly countries. In 2018-19, BEL sold products and systems worth US$21.6 million and had an export order book of US$158 million as of September 30, 2019. BEL is targeting exports and offsets as a key growth area. The company is focusing on addressing offset obligations in various Request for Proposals (RFP) of the MoD, on account of the Offset Policy incorporated in the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP). BEL has identified contract manufacturing (build to print and build to spec) for foreign OEMs and partnerships in the www.geopolitics.in February 2021 29

INDIA 2021 Successful test firing of Communication Terminal (ALG-CT) cyber security defence equipment and the preference for Laser-Guided Anti-Tank products/services, encryptors, high capacity domestic missile systems over foreign systems Guided Missile (LGATGM) radio relay, data diode used to create a physically could provide the environment needed for Indian from India’s Arjun main battle secure one-way communication channel from missile programmes to thrive. India’s missile one network to another, SDR VPX with NCW development programmes have a strong focus on tank applications, Configurable Live Mk II, etc. Other self-sufficiency, borne out of global technology areas of focus for BEL now include next generation denial regimes, that forced indigenous solutions to indigenous surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, be developed. The DRDO’s success in developing airborne radars, thermal imager detectors for various kinds of missile systems means that India night vision devices, Indian Regional Navigation is now largely self-sufficient in many areas. Satellite System (IRNSS), Direct Energy Weapons Akash SAM (DEW), Helmet Mounted Display Systems The Akash (Sky) SAM system must be considered (HDMS), Directed Infra-Red Counter Measure as one of the most successful Indian missile (DIRCM), IT & Cloud services, Ring Laser Gyro programmes and has now been cleared for (RLG), explosives, propellants, smart bombs etc, in export by the government as a result of repeated the defence segment, and space-grade solar cells, enquiries from potential export customers. “After and Air Traffic Control Radars in the non-defence its induction in the Services, interest is shown in segment. Akash missile by many friendly countries during BEL has also entered into an MoU with Tamil International Exhibitions/Def Expo/ Aero India. The cabinet approval Nadu Industrial Explosives Limited (TEL), a state- will facilitate Indian manufactures government undertaking of the government of to participate in RFI/RFP issued by Tamil Nadu, for cooperation in the explosives various countries,” the MoD said segment. BEL is eyeing this sector for business in a statement in December 2020. growth, keeping in view of its ongoing and The export version of Akash will upcoming ammunition programmes. The strategic be different from what is currently partnership with TEL will also boost BEL’s business deployed with the Indian Armed opportunities in the explosives segment. It is Forces. The Akash SAM system was investing for the upgradation of existing facilities inducted into service by the IAF in and addition of new facilities, as well as setting 2014 and by the Army in 2015. Since up of a world-class centre of excellence for 2016, five Troops of Akash SAMs ammunition related technologies for both defence have been delivered to the Army and space requirements. and two Squadrons to the IAF. Also Missile systems under development is the Akash Mk- The ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ campaign could turn 1S, which is an upgrade of existing India into a missile design and development missile with indigenous seeker. A powerhouse, with its focus on indigenous contract worth `6,300 crore for seven manufacture of missile systems. The increased additional squadrons and associated focus on design and development of indigenous specialist infrastructure was signed in October 2019 and deliveries are to start this year. An indigenously DRDO developed supersonic short range surface-to-air missile system with a claimed indigenisation rate of 96 percent, Akash can engage a wide variety of aerial threats such as aircraft, helicopters and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) upto a 25 km distance and an altitude of 20 kms. Its Multi-Function Radar provides 80 km coverage, while its Central Acquisition Radar can provide 120 km coverage. The system is capable of simultaneously engaging multiple targets and providing comprehensive short range missile cover to vulnerable assets in the field force of the army. LRSAM, MRSAM, QRSAM The joint Indo-Israeli Long-Range SAM (LRSAM) will further bolster India’s missile credentials. LRSAM is a ship launch version for the Navy and the Medium Range SAM (MRSAM) is the land launch version of the Barak-08 missile system. The IAF will procure 18 MRSAM Squadrons and LRSAMs are already fitted aboard the Navy’s Kolkata Class Destroyers and will be fitted on all its 30 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 major warships in the future. The maiden launch that took place in July 2019. The army’s existing INS Kolkata firing of the MRSAM took place in December 2020 and a BMP-2 Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV) have been a Barak-8 LRSAM complete Fire Unit was used during the launch in modified by DRDO to develop the NAMICA and it missile deliverable configuration. The missile completely can carry six Nag ATGMs. destroyed a high speed unmanned aerial target INDIAN NAVY which was mimicking an aircraft with a direct The Helicopter based Nag (HELINA) has also hit. MRSAM Army weapon system comprises of been developed for use on army Dhruv MkIV The Helicopter Command post, Multi-Function Radar and Mobile ‘Rudra’ armed helicopters. The HELINA ATGM based Nag Launcher system. Jointly developed by DRDO can engage targets both in direct hit mode as well (HELINA) and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), induction as top attack modes. A variant of the HELINA for has also been of MRSAM which can detect incoming enemy the IAF has also been developed by DRDO, called aircraft at a distance of 100 km and engage them at Dhruvastra and successful flight tests took place in developed for use ranges upto 70 km is slated to take place soon. The July 2020. DRDO is also developing an indigenous on army Dhruv contract for the LR-SAM development programme low weight, fire and forget Man Portable Antitank MkIV ‘Rudra’ estimated to cost approximately `2600 crore was Guided Missile (MPATGM), which completed its armed helicopters. signed in January 2006. The MRSAM development third test in September 2019. The missile features The HELINA programme cost is approximately `1000 crore and a state-of-the-art IIR seeker along with advanced ATGM can engage the contract was finalised in February 2009. avionics. targets both in direct hit mode as Development of the DRDO Quick Reaction Developed by Armament R&D Establishment well as top attack SAM (QRSAM) for the Army was completed (ARDE), Pune in association with HEMRL, Pune in December 2019, when a missile test was and Instruments Research & Development modes completed in full deployment configuration. Establishment (IRDE), Dehradun, another new The QRSAM is slated for induction this year and ATGM variant under development employs a will be used to provide air defence coverage tandem HEAT warhead to defeat Explosive Reactive for army strike columns. The single stage solid Armour (ERA) protected armoured vehicles at propelled missile has an indigenously developed ranges from 1.5 to 5 km. The new ATGM successfully midcourse Inertial Navigation System (INS) with defeated a target located at 3 km during the tests. two-way Data Link, terminal active RF seeker It can be launched from multiple-platforms and and is propelled by a single stage solid propellant is currently undergoing technical evaluation trials rocket motor. The mobile launcher is capable from MBT Arjun’s 120 mm rifled main gun. An of carrying 6 canisterised missiles. The QR SAM indigenous Laser Guided ATGM being developed features extensive participation from Defence for use from the main gun of the MBT Arjun is also PSUs BEL, Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) and under development and has been successfully test private industry such as Larsen & Toubro (L&T). fired in October 2020, in continuation of an earlier The missile system is fully indigenous with active trial held in September 2020.  RF Seekers, Electro Mechanical Actuation (EMA) systems sourced from various industries. The vehicle mounted Phased Array Radar has also been indigenously developed. The highly mobile QRSAM weapon system, comprises of fully automated Command and Control System, Active Array Battery Surveillance Radar, Active Array Battery Multifunction Radar and Launcher. Both radars are four-walled having 360-degree coverage with search on move and track on move capability. Indigenous ATGMs The final user trial of the Nag (Serpent) third- generation Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) was completed with the army in October 2020. The missile will be produced by Defence PSU Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) now that the final user trials are complete. The all-weather weapon has a maximum engagement range of 4 km and a minimum engagement range of 500m. For its final trials, the ATGM was launched from a Nag Missile Carrier (NAMICA) and featured a missile integrated with the actual warhead, fired against a tank target. The third-generation fire and forget class ATGM and uses an Imaging Infrared (IIR) seeker in Lock-On-Before-Launch (LOBL) mode. Prior to completion of final user trials, winter trials had been completed in February 2019, followed by summer trials in severe desert heat conditions www.geopolitics.in February 2021 31

INDIA 2021 POST-RAFALE IAF GROWTH CHALLENGES In order to have its authorised 42 squadrons earliest by 2038, the Indian Air Force requires $110 billion (`770,000 crore), estimates ANIL CHOPRA. Where is that money? Will this remain a pipe dream? IAF is today at The serious showdown with the Chinese Generation-plus fighters and slow induction of the an all-time low in Ladakh has once again brought into LCA are the main cause of the depleted state that in the number focus the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) growth IAF fight fleet is in today. and its challenges. Defence analysts of fighter are closely comparing the defence Waiting to phaseout are at least five squadrons. squadrons. preparedness of the armies and air forces of the So, the numbers could deplete further. Effectively Already down two sides across the Line of Actual Control (LAC). the IAF today has one squadron of Rafale, 12 of Su- to 30 vis-a-vis The media hype related to the induction of Rafale 30 MKI, 3 Mirage 2000, 3 MiG 29s, 4 MiG 21 Bison, the authorised did raise the public confidence and nationalist 2 LCA, and 5 Jaguar. MiG 21 Bison Squadrons are 42, the numbers fervour, but professionals must look at the ground awaiting retirements. would go down reality dispassionately and debate the challenges Air threat appreciation and options. Chinese are investing heavily into aerospace further Current state of IAF research and development and aircraft IAF is today at an all-time low in the number of manufacture. They have two home-grown stealth fighter squadrons. Already down to 30 vis-a-vis fighters (J-20 and J-31), and one large transport the authorised 42, the numbers would go down aircraft (Y-20) already flying. They are also further if some more squadrons are allowed to developing the H-20 stealth bomber and a host of retire because of low availability of serviceable attack helicopters and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles aircraft. As far back as 2001, IAF had apprised (UAV). China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force the government for need to acquire additional (PLAAF) has nearly 80 combat squadrons. They fighters. IAF at that stage was very happy to have have an operational J-20 squadron, 24 Su-35, the upgraded version of the Mirage-2000, an nearly 500 J-10s, and a large number of Su-27 and option that finally got foreclosed in 2006, when Su-30 variants. Chinese are right now sitting eye- Dassault closed the Mirage-2000 production line ball-to-eye-ball on India’s border in Ladakh and after repeatedly checking with India. threatening conflict. The process to acquire 126 Medium Multi-Role Pakistan has not only stepped up insurgency Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) was finally initiated into Jammu and Kashmir, it also openly boasts of in 2007. French Dassault Rafale was the eventual collusive support from China in case of a war with winner after a fierce competition among the India. Pakistan has nearly 20 combat units, and is world’s top available fighters. 8 of the 36 Rafale fast inducting the JF-17 Block III. have arrived and are operational at Ambala. Indian government and the three services are Meanwhile the indigenous Light Combat officially acknowledging and factoring possible Aircraft (LCA) ‘Tejas’ has had a very delayed Design two-front war scenarios. In 2018, IAF had tested and Development (D&D) programme and after the two-front war operational plans in the mother- nearly 20 years since aircraft’s first flight, only of-all-exercises ‘Gagan Shakti‘. While the IAF has around 25 aircraft have been delivered to the a plan ‘B’ to fight with what it has, if forced into IAF. The second LCA squadron has just formed. conflict, but numbers are clearly not adequate Delayed acquisition of sufficient number of 4th- to fully execute an air campaign even in a single- front. It is incumbent upon the nation to provide 32 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 DEFENSELINK.MIL IAF assets for the task it has been entrusted. It is electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, more Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet imperative that IAF quickly rebuilt the squadron powerful onboard computers and a new electronic has been offered to the Indian strength. warfare (EW) suite. The process has still evolving. Air Force under the ongoing Fighter Aircraft Unfolding Action Ahead All 36 Rafale aircraft will induct by 2022. MMRCA 2.0 deal Delay in LCA has forced IAF to extend the MiG- 21 Bison-fleet till 2024 with depleting numbers Responses for IAF’s Request for Information and lower availability of spares. IAF’s order of 40 (RFI) for 114 4th-Generation-plus fighters were LCA Mk1 will get completed only by mid-2022. 83 received in July 2018. The seven in contention are LCA Mk1A have just got CCS approval. The same Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, F-16 Block will begin inducting around 2024. IAF’s dedicated 70 (now named F-21), F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, strike aircraft fleet now has only the Jaguars, and JAS 39 E/F Gripen NG, MiG-35 and SU-35. The these are being modernised further to DARIN III Request for Proposal (RFP) has been awaiting for standard. Mikoyan MiG-29 and Mirage-2000 fleets long. It appears that there is a lack of clarity or have also been upgraded. 21 additional upgraded funds to proceed further on this plan. Even if the MiG-29s are being procured. However these will process is hastened, the earliest these aircraft can take nearly three years to upgrade and induct. 272 be inducted is 2026. The Americans are reportedly Su-30 MKI air-superiority fighters are on order and independently pushing the case of Boeing F-15 EX. 260 have been delivered till date. 12 additional SU- Way Ahead LCA 30 MKI are being acquired, primarily to replace The LCA Mk-II which is more likely to meet IAF’s those that had crashed over the years or as War ASQRs is still far away. Therefore, it was decided to Wastage Reserve (WWR). Initially 40 Su-30 MKI have an interim, operationally better version, Mk- aircraft will be upgraded. This would include the 1A with an advanced AESA Radar, an EW suite, a ability to carry the BrahMos cruise missiles and mid-air refuelling probe, and incorporate weight nuclear-capable Nirbhay missiles, get an active reduction along with easier service maintainability. 83 of these will induct from 2024 onwards. www.geopolitics.in February 2021 33

INDIA 2021 A newly inducted Dassault PIB Rafale during the Indian Air Force Day celebrations in New Delhi The IAF The LCA Mk-II would either be an enlarged generation system (ILSS-OBOGS), a built-in today has one variant of Mk-1 with the more powerful General integrated electro-optic electronic-warfare suite squadron of Electric F-414-GE-INS6 engine (with a Full among other improvements to avionics. It will have Rafale, 12 of Authority Digital Electronics Control - FADEC) an infra-red search and track (IRST) system and a Su-30 MKI, 3 or a larger aircraft with canards, being called the missile approach warning system (MAWS) and a Mirage 2000, 3 Medium Weight Fighter (MWF). This aircraft that modern AESA radar. It is said to be designed for MiG 29s, 4 MiG is more likely to meet the IAF’s original Air Staff swing role, with BVR and close-combat capability, 21 Bison, 2 LCA, Quality Requirements may be ready earliest by and precision strike. and 5 Jaguar. 2025. To accommodate the same, major airframe MiG 21 Bisons modifications including larger aircraft dimensions Beyond the LCA programme, the AMCA, India’s will retire soon will be required. It will also mean extensive flight fifth-generation fighter, can only move forward testing. IAF plans to induct 200 aircraft. The aircraft once the LCA Mk II design is frozen. There is also may induct around 2028-30. a talk of developing a Twin Engine Deck Based Fighter (TEDBF) aircraft. A few images of India’s In any case HAL will require that much time future Twin-engine Medium Class Omni-Role to deliver 83 Mk-1A variants. HAL currently has a Combat Aircraft (ORCA) fighter are also being single production line with a maximum capacity circulated. Some of the visible features of ORCA of 8 aircraft a year. Unfortunately HAL is unable to are the canards, diverterless supersonic inlet, fully use even this line. MoD had set a target of 16 conformal wing root tanks/containers, larger aircraft per year by 2020. HAL has indicated that number of hard-points. It will weigh around 23 they will be able to deliver 12-14 aircraft only this tonnes. An ambitious timeline of first flight is 2026 financial year till March 2021. The rate at which IAF and production start in 2030 are being spoken of. squadrons are depleting, the desired rate is closer AMCA – India’s fifth generation aircraft to 20-24 per year. The indigenous content of the The Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) Tejas is 59.7 percent by value and 75.5 percent by is a fifth generation aircraft being designed by number of line replaceable units. Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and will be manufactured by HAL. It will be a twin-engine, The Tejas Mk-2 MWF would be 14.6m long with stealth, all weather multirole fighter with super- a wingspan of 8.5m (compared with 13 m and 8.2 m cruise and advanced AESA radar. AMCA feasibility respectively for the LCA, and 14.36m and 9.13m for study and the preliminary design stage have been Mirage 2000). The aircraft will have a compound completed. The project awaits approval to begin delta wing with close-coupled canards. The longer D&D stage. It is meant to complement the SU-30 fuselage will allow for more internal and external MKI, Rafale and Tejas in the IAF and MiG 29K in the fuel. The maximum weight of the aircraft would Navy, and replace the Jaguar, MiG-27 and Mirage be 17.5 tonnes (compared to Mk1’s 13.5 tons). The 2000 aircraft of the IAF. weapon stations will increase from 7 to 11, with carrying capacity increase from 5.3 to 6.5 tonnes. In October 2008, IAF had asked ADA to prepare a detailed project report and in April 2010, issued Tejas Mark-II will also feature an indigenous integrated life support system-onboard oxygen 34 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 ALEXANDR ERMAKOV Export version of the MiG-35 fighter bomber the ASQR for the AMCA. ADA unveiled a 1:8 scale detection, identification and accurate localisation China has model at Aero India-2013. The AMCA design of infrared homing, radio-frequency and laser nearly 80 will have shoulder-mounted diamond-shaped threats. The system incorporates radar warning combat trapezoidal wings, and an all-moving Canard- receiver, laser-warning, Missile Approach Warning squadrons Vertical V-tail with large fuselage mounted tail- (MAW) for threat detection plus a phased array which include wing. ADA is working on major technological radar jammer and a decoy dispenser for threat an operational issues like thrust vectoring, super-cruising engine, countering. The Thales/SAGEM Optronique J-20 squadron, AESA radar and stealth. AMCA will initially fly Secteur Frontal infra-red search and track (IRST) 24 Su-35, with two GE-414 engines. Eventually it is planned system uses a narrow field for tracking air targets nearly 500 to be powered by two GTRE, 90 kN thrust, K 9 or at ranges up to 100 kilometres. A TV/IR sensor for J-10s, and a K10 engines which are successor to the troubled target identification (40 km range) including laser large number Kaveri engine. The first flight is likely around 2030 rangefinder. Aircraft has a 30 mm cannon with of Su-27s and and aircraft induct after 2035. DRDO and HAL have 125 rounds. The 14 hard-points can carry 9,500 Su-30s begun work on the AMCA. The progress is much kg external loads. The air-to-air missiles include slower than the very ambitious timelines they have Magic II, MBDA MICA IR or EM, and MBDA been announcing. Meteor. Rafale – the weapon platform Rafale is a very potent weapons platform capable Meteor is an active radar guided, beyond- of simultaneously packaging air superiority, visual-range air-to-air missile (BVRAAM). Meteor interdiction, reconnaissance, and airborne offers multi-shot capability against long range nuclear deterrent missions. The actively coupled manoeuvring targets, jets, UAVs and cruise missiles canard wing allows high manoeuvrability. The in a heavy electronic countermeasures (ECM) aircraft is designed for reduced radar cross-section environment with range well in excess of 150 (RCS) and infra-red signature. The glass cockpit kilometres. A fresh proposal has been mooted for is designed around the principle of data fusion. A also acquiring the HAMMER (Highly Agile Modular central computer prioritizes information to display Munition Extended Range) as part of the Rafale to pilots for simpler command and control. Rafale weapons package. This modular AASM (Armement features an advanced avionics suite. The aircraft’s Air-Sol Modulaireweapon) system has a length of RBE2 AA active electronically scanned array 3m and a weight of 330kg and has a range of over (AESA) radar has been fully tested operationally. It 60km at high altitudes and 15km at low altitudes. has a field of regard of 70 degrees on either side of It has fire and forget capability and an extended the aircraft axis, and extended range capabilities stand-off capacity. supporting low-observable target detection. Transport and helicopter operational assets The nearly 100 Antonov An-32 medium transport Rafale makes extensive use of radar-absorbent aircraft have undergone an avionics upgrade. materials (RAM). The SPECTRA integrated EADS CASA C-295 twin-turboprop tactical military electronic warfare suite provides long-range transport aircraft was shortlisted for 56 HS-748 www.geopolitics.in February 2021 35

INDIA 2021 Thrust vectoring nozzle JULIAN HERZOG on a Sukhoi Su-35 air superiority fighter IAF has a Plan Avro replacement. 16 are to be bought in fly-away meanwhile inducted two DRDO Embraer ERJ- ‘B’ to fight condition. Tata Advanced Systems Ltd (TASL) and 145 aircraft based AEW&C ‘Netra’. Initially, three with what it Airbus Defence and Space are to make 40 of these aircraft have been developed. It has been decided has, if forced in India. Contract for these is expected to be signed to purchase up to six Airbus A330s for DRDO into conflict, very shortly. AWACS. This project could take 6-8 years or more. but numbers IAF finally requires more than 10 AEW&C aircraft. IAF has 17 Ilyushin Il-76 (50-tonne load), and IAF has six Ilyushin-78 Flight Refuelling Aircraft are clearly not 11 Boeing C-17 Globemaster III (70 tonne-load) (FRA). Meanwhile IAF has been in a search for adequate to aircraft. IAF has 12 Lockheed C-130J -30. There six additional FRA since 2006. First two attempts are sizeable number of Dornier 228 aircraft.HAL got aborted due to issues related to lifecycle costs fully execute an built light utility helicopters Chetak, Cheetah and and processes. The contest appears to be between air campaign Cheetal are used for training, rescue, and light Airbus A-330 MRTT, IL-78 and Boeing KC-46A. transport duties including in Siachen and other Unmanned fleet even on a high-altitude areas. Part of their role is currently IAF’s unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) fleet single-front being taken over by HAL Dhruv Helicopter. Dhruv comprises of Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) also has a weaponised version ‘Rudra’. Based on Searcher-II and Heron and they are used for the Dhruv platform, HAL is developing the Light reconnaissance and surveillance. IAI Harpy is Combat Helicopter (LCH) and a Light Utility the anti-radar combat UAV, and DRDO Lakshya Helicopter (LUH). Ultimately over 400 helicopters is used for aerial targeting practice. The IAI will be required. Harop (Harpy-2) is a loitering munition which is essentially an anti-radiation drone that can either Russian Ka-226T LUH has been selected to operate fully autonomously, using its anti-radar be made in India by a HAL-Kamov Joint-Venture. homing system, or have a human-in-the-loop Contract has still to be signed. Mil Mi-17, Mi- mode. IAF is adding another 54 Harop drones to its 17 1V, and Mi-17 V5 are the mainstay of medium earlier fleet of around 110, and has renamed them utility helicopter fleet with nearly 240. IAF also as P-4. operates three heavylift Mil Mi-26 helicopters. All the ordered 15 Boeing Chinook helicopters DRDO’s Rustom-II (TAPAS-BH-201), is a have already joined the IAF starting mid-2019. medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) Combat Two squadrons of Mil Mi-25/35 attack helicopters UAV (UCAV), and under advanced testing. DRDO’s operate in support of the Indian Army are being Autonomous Unmanned Research Aircraft (AURA) replaced by 22 AH-64E Apache. All 22 Apache are “Ghatak” is planned to be a “self-defending high- inducted. IAF is fairly well off in transport aircraft speed reconnaissance UAV with weapon firing and helicopter assets. capability”. This is expected around 2028. The force multipliers Three AEW&C (IL-76 based platform) with EL/W- India is looking at more sophisticated large 2090 Phalcon radar are in service. Two more are foot-print systems like RQ-4 Global hawks. awaiting to be ordered for nearly 7-8 years. IAF Meanwhile Pentagon had cleared the sale of 22 36 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 Guardian naval surveillance drones to India, but WIKIMEDIA COMMONS India has been in favour of acquiring an armed drone which operates over both land and sea. requirement. IAF got `43,282 crore ($6.0 billion) Cockpit of Saab JAS-39 Meanwhile Indian Navy has inducted two General in capital budget. Bulk of this will be used for Gripen multirole fighter jet Atomics MQ-9 Guardian/Predator-B drones on committed liabilities of earlier purchases such as lease. Finally the three services are likely to get 10 Apache and Chinook helicopters, Rafale, LCA and Defence drones of this make each. S-400. IAF will need out of budget funds for some budget must be Slow indigenisation and ToT acquisitions. This financial year’s defence budget at least 2.5 per A handful of countries dominate the world (less pensions) is mere 1.4 percent of the GDP. This aerospace manufacturing domain. All aerospace needs to go up to 2.5 percent. cent of GDP technologies are very high-end involving high The uphill task ahead for the next manufacturing accuracies and big investments. At the current pace of acquisitions and indigenous two decades. Notwithstanding the optimism created by ‘Make- development, the IAF can reach back to the Time to act is in-India’ push, and India’s success in space authorised 42 squadrons earliest by 2038. Currently now, lest India programmes, and huge military aviation demands, deficient by 12, and another 10 squadrons due to be left behind the defence production in aviation sector phase out, would mean acquiring 22 squadrons. in its global continues to be ‘work-in-very-slow-progress’. From the Rafale deal it can be seen that typically ambitions Transfer of Technology (ToT) clauses are the most two squadrons cost around US$ 9.12 billion. That difficult to negotiate in any contract and even would cost close to $110 billion (`770,000 crore). more difficult to implement. Where is that money? Will this remain a pipe dream? Most countries see India as a great defence market and would never part with technologies If India were to succeed, IAF should have 2 that could allow emerging India to become squadrons of Mirage-2000, 2 Jaguars, 14 Su-30 independent or a competitor. Technology can MKI, 2 Rafale, 14 of LCA Mk I & II, 2 AMCA and 6 be acquired best by investing heavily in R&D, or of the newly selected fighter, making a total of 42. through Joint Ventures. India must use its emerging That would mean building average of 18 LCA a economic muscle, coupled with falling defence year. There will be need for replacements among markets elsewhere, to leverage technology transfer. other fleets also. To achieve all this, defence Defence R&D spend has to increase manifold. budget has to be at least 2.5 percent of GDP for HAL and private industry galvanisation next two decades. Realistic requirement for IAF’s HAL remains India’s only significant aircraft Capital budget is over `60,000 crore a year. Time manufacturer. It has license produced and to act is now, lest India be left behind in its global overhauled fixed and rotary wing aircraft of all ambitions. classes, and license-produced aero engines. However, investments in-house design and end Air Marshal Anil Chopra PVSM AVSM VM VSM products have been far and few. ALH has been a was a fighter Pilot in the Indian Air Force who relatively successful project. Though for many critical systems including engine ALH remains commanded a Mirage 2000 Squadron dependent on foreign firms. HAL is one Defence Public Sector Undertaking (DPSU) which awaits early divestment to bring in more modern corporate culture and release from the bureaucratic control of the babus in Ministry of Defence (MoD). India’s target is to reduce defence imports to initially 40 percent from current 70 percent. Big private industrial houses, like Tata, L&T, Mahindras, Adani, Bharat Forge, Reliance and others have come into defence manufacturing in a serious way. Private industry can raise funds, take quick decisions and ensure transparency. They desperately need some handholding by the government to promote indigenisation. Need for enhanced capital budget for IAF In defence budget 2020-21, MoD’s total allocations is in `4,71,378 crore ($66.9 billion) of which, `3,23,053 crore ($45.8 billion) has been provided under the Defence Services Estimates (DSE), which deals with operating expenses and capital needs of the defence services. The capital budget for new acquisitions is `113734 crore, ($16.0 billion) is 29 percent shortfall from the projected www.geopolitics.in February 2021 37

INDIA 2021 DEFENCE AGAINST OFFENCE: INDIA IS BUILDING UP ITS BMD SYSTEMS The experience gained from the development and operation of the BrahMos Mach-3 supersonic cruise missile by the Indian armed forces will be an added advantage not available to other nations in the region. As a result, India could likely have operational hypersonic weapons capability before the end of the decade, explains C SANTHOSH Importance of Development of hypersonic offensive already been requested to speed up deliveries of S-400 deal signed weapons is now significantly the five S-400 Triumf air-defence missile systems. advanced in Russia, the USA and Deliveries are to commence later this year and with Russia in China, with Russia having the the 5th and final S-400 system will be delivered 2018 can be first mover advantage. Australia, in 2025. The importance of the S-400 deal signed gauged from the Japan and the European Union all have civilian with Russia in 2018 can be gauged from the decision taken, to or military hypersonic research programmes decision taken, to proceed with the acquisition proceed with the already in place and are likely to have such despite strong opposition from the USA. acquisition despite capability before the end of the decade. strong opposition The urgency to induct the S-400 is also from the US India is now speeding up efforts in this arena related to the complexity of the weapon system, with the Defence Research & Development which requires at least 3-5 years to be fully Organisation (DRDO) investing heavily in integrated into India’s expanding BMD and hypersonic research. The experience gained Ground Based Air Defence (GBAD) network. from the development and operation of the An operational S-400 system has the capability BrahMos Mach-3 supersonic cruise missile to simultaneously engage up to 36 targets and by the Indian armed forces, will be an added launch 72 missiles to engage aerial threats as advantage not available to other nations in far as 400 km away. The S-400 can be considered the region. As a result, India could likely have the pinnacle of Russian military technology and operational hypersonic weapons capability can engage aircraft, stealth aircraft and drones, before the end of the decade. cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons conferring an unmatched defensive With hypersonic weapons capability still capability against any aggressor. Highly-mobile some time away, Indian efforts to have a credible and automated, S-400 systems feature advanced Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system in place long-range radars that are able to track 100 to are being speeded up and the Russian S-400 300 targets at the same time. system will play a key role here. Russia has 38 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 Indigenous missile defence for high altitude interception with low altitude A credible BMD system is now a vital necessity interception being handled by the Advanced Air for India to protect important cities and vital Defence (AAD) missile. The Prithvi Air Defence installations against hostile attack, now that (PAD) Pradyumna and Prithvi Defence Vehicle India is catering for the real possibility of a two- (PDV) interceptors make up the first layer. front conflict in the future. The DRDO which These land and ship based interceptor missiles is responsible for the Indian BMD system is can destroy missiles at exo-atmospheric working in close coordination with the Indian altitudes of 50–180 km. The DRDO performed Air Force (IAF) to deliver a two-layered BMD its first interception in November 2006, when a programme for defending the vital assets from modified Prithvi-II surface-to-surface missile ballistic missile attacks. As per the DRDO, tests was engaged by a PAD missile at an altitude of 50 have been completed validating all the elements km. The second trial took place in March 2009, of the BMD systems in an operational scenario. when a ship-launched Dhanush missile was In March 2019, an Anti-Satellite (A-SAT) missile engaged by a PAD missile at an altitude of 75km. test ‘Mission Shakti’ tested a DRDO-developed BMD interceptor missile successfully engaged The older PAD/Pradyumna interceptor an orbiting target satellite in Low Earth Orbit missiles will be replaced by the new two-stage, (LEO). The three-stage interceptor missile with solid-fuelled PDV interceptor which is also two solid rocket boosters was operated in ‘Hit to fitted with an Imaging Infrared (IIR) seeker to Kill’ mode. distinguish between incoming warheads and decoys. In a February 2017, PDV test, it destroyed Two new BMD interceptors are to developed a ballistic missile target at an altitude of 100 km, in Phase-II of the programme to intercept after the target was launched 2,000 km away. Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM). These hypersonic missile interceptors (AD- A Long-Range Tracking Radar (LRTR) and 1 and AD-2) are being developed to intercept active radar homing in the terminal phase ballistic missiles with a range of around 5,000 provide mid-course updates to the missiles, km (3,100 mi). The two anti-ballistic missiles which are also guided by an Inertial Navigation can intercept targets from up to 5,000 km (3,100 System (INS). The LRTR named Swordfish was mi) both at exo (outside atmosphere) and endo- indigenously developed as part of its BMD atmospheric or inside the atmosphere regions. programme and has a range of 600 - 800 km. This radar has been upgraded to increase the This two-layered BMD approach makes detection range to 1500 km. The complexity use of the Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) missile and challenges associated with a BMD as India’s Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) exo-atmospheric interceptor missile A credible BMD system is now a vital necessity for India to protect important cities and vital installations, now tha there is a real possibility of a two-front war WIKIPEDIA 39 www.geopolitics.in February 2021

INDIA 2021 GAM-87 Skybolt air- WIKIMEDIA COMMONS launched ballistic missile (ALBM) developed by the United States Russia is experienced by other nations has also been felt Dome missile defence system is one of the now close to at home with the DRDO originally having stated most successful in the world with more than introducing an that the BMD shield in its first phase would be 2,500 operational intercepts and a success rate advanced new air ready by 2013, with the second phase to have exceeding 90 per cent. defence system in been operational in 2016. the S-500, which BMD developments Russia is now close to introducing an is considered A Next Generation Interceptor (NGI), a new advanced new air defence system in the S-500, amongst the first interceptor for the Ground-based Midcourse which is considered amongst the first generation generation of Defense System are now planned to be built by the of space defence systems, since it will be able to space defence USA. A request for proposal (RFP) for the NGI was destroy low-orbit satellites and space weapons. issued by the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) in The new air defence system will be a substantial systems August 2020 with the intent to down-select to two improvement over the world beating S-400 which US firms companies to build the interceptor with entered service in 2007, almost 15 years ago. The a finalist selected later. Lockheed Martin, Boeing S-500 is being developed by Almaz-Antey, which and a Raytheon-Northrop Grumman are looking also designed and developed the S-300 and to emerge as winners for this requirement. The S-400. The advanced S-500 will prove a potent $11 billion NGI programme is expected to start threat against fifth-generation aircraft and low testing of the interceptors in 2025-2026 and enter orbit satellites. The S-500 system will likely have operational service in 2027-2028. four radar vehicles per battery, including one radar tailored to ballistic missile tracking. The Raytheon Missiles & Defence and Rafael S-500 is stated to have the ability to track, engage Advanced Defence Systems Ltd will also now and destroy not only aerodynamic and ballistic produce the Iron Dome Weapon System at a US targets but also all kinds of hypersonic weapons. production facility under a new Joint Venture Hypersonic race (JV). Raytheon RAFAEL Area Protection Systems Hypersonic weapons will be capable of striking will result in US production of the Iron Dome anywhere around the globe in less than an hour Weapon System to intercept incoming cruise and thus can change the way wars are fought. missiles, UAVs and short-range targets such Hypersonic missiles are also maneuverable as rockets, artillery, mortars and other aerial like cruise missiles and unlike ballistic threats. A key difference in US-built Iron Dome missiles and hence have greater operational systems will be the use of the SkyHunter missile, utility. In comparison to hypersonic weapons a US derivative of TAMIR. Both companies have developments abroad, Indian efforts can be been longstanding partners of over a decade termed as nascent but promising. A hypersonic on the Iron Dome. The Israeli developed Iron air-breathing scramjet technology vehicle called 40 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 the Hypersonic Technology Demonstration PIB Vehicle (HSTDV) was successfully tested by DRDO in September 2020. A proven solid is planned to be carried aboard USAF/RAAF MDA.MIL rocket motor, was used to launch the HSTDV F/A-18F Super Hornet and the F-35A Lightning to an altitude of 30 km, following which the II aircraft as also USN/RAN P-8A Poseidon An American Ground-Based aerodynamic heat shields were separated at maritime surveillance aircraft. The USAF will Interceptor (GBI) loaded into hypersonic speeds. number. As per the DRDO, lead the effort and while programme costs have a silo at Fort Greely, Alaska the HSTDV demonstrated sustained hypersonic not been revealed neither deployment dates. combustion and the cruise vehicle continued on One can expect the programme to lead to a its desired flight path at a velocity of six times the deployable weapon before 2030. speed of sound (approximately 2 km/second for US hypersonic developments more than 20 seconds). As alluded to, earlier in The Pentagon is already steeply increasing its this article, the experience of the Indian armed forces with the BrahMos Mach-3 supersonic cruise missile especially in the operational context will hasten design, development and deployment of the BrahMos-II, which is a hypersonic version of the anti-ship/land-attack BrahMos supersonic cruise missile. China on the other hand is also making fast progress with the DF-17 glider missile, touted as the country’s first deployed hypersonic strike weapon. It can achieve speeds of Mach-10. China is also testing a rocket-boosted hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), in addition to the Dongfeng-17 and is currently also testing the Xingkong-2 or Starry Sky-2 cruise missile that is said to be even more lethal than DF-17. Russia is the world leader in the development and deployment of hypersonic weapons. The country’s first Avangard hypersonic missile regiment entered service in December 2019. The nuclear-capable missiles are capable of traveling 27 times the speed of sound and intercontinental range. The Avangard’s ability to change course and altitude on its way to the target makes it virtually impossible to intercept. Russia has also deployed the ‘Kinzhal’ (Dagger) which is a nuclear-capable air-Launched hypersonic weapon which has been integrated on the MiG- 31. The Kinzhal hypersonic weapon can attain speeds of Mach-10 and has a range of 2000 km. it can carry either a conventional or nuclear target and can be used to engage targets on land or sea. In an interesting development Australia and the United States are developing an air- launched hypersonic cruise missile under the bilateral Southern Cross Integrated Flight Research Experiment programme (SCIFiRE). The Royal Australian Air Force, the Australian Defence Science and Technology Group, and the University of Queensland will be part of the project. SCIFiRE is the second project to be taken up under Pentagon’s new Allied Prototyping Initiative, which aims to promote international cooperation in military research. The goal of API is “interoperable prototypes developed on an equitable basis, delivered to coalition forces faster, and with a demonstrated potential for co- production,” says Ellen Lord, US Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment. The propulsion-launched Mach 5 Class precision strike missile that will be powered by an air- breathing scramjet engine. The new weapon www.geopolitics.in February 2021 41

INDIA 2021 WPAFB.AF.MIL A B-52 Stratofortress funding for hypersonic defence programmes, for our first booster test flight planned for early carrying AGM-183 in recognition of the significant strides made by 2020s.” This is the first time that a tactical ARRW Russia and China in their offensive capabilities missile has been assembled. Additional ground hypersonic test missile with hypersonic weapons. While the US is and flight testing will follow over the next two focusing only on conventional payloads, China years. The ARRW will be carried on the B-52 as The USAF and Russia are developing both conventional also on Boeing’s F-15EX. achieved a and nuclear delivery methods. US Air Force major milestone General Glen D. VanHerck, commander of Lockheed Martin has already received towards fielding North American Aerospace Defense Command a US Air Force contract worth $928 million, a hypersonic and US Northern Command, says that the US to develop a hypersonic conventional strike weapon in August defences against hypersonic weapons have weapon (HCSW) to be launched by air force 2020, when it not kept pace with its offensive capability fighter jets and B-52 bombers. A $480 million completed the advancements. Hypersonic weapons with deal to develop a hypersonic air-launched, rapid final captive- independent maneuvering capability, such as response weapon (ARRW) has also signed with carry test of the those developed by Russia and China, challenge Lockheed, which has won similar contracts AGM-183A the country’s legacy early warning systems, he from the US Army and US Navy as well. With the adds. anticipated growth for such programmes, the company is building new facilities in Alabama The USAF achieved a major milestone to develop, test and produce the weapons as it towards fielding a hypersonic weapon in August seeks to cement its position as the market leader 2020, when it completed the final captive- in hypersonics. carry test of the AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) under the wing of a The US Navy remains on schedule to field B-52 Stratofortress strategic bomber. The AGM- a hypersonic strike weapon on submarines by 183A is will achieve early operational capability 2025. The weapon will be used as a conventional in 2022 and will significantly enhance US prompt strike (CPS) alternative to long-range ability to undertake rapid response strikes nuclear weapons. The navy and the US Army are against heavily defended land targets. “The collaborating on the weapon. The service had team overcame significant challenges driven original planned to field a hypersonic weapon by the COVID-19 pandemic to achieve this on its Ohio-class Guided Missile Submarines significant milestone for the programme,” said (SSGNs) by the mid-2020s, and on Block-V Dave Berganini, ARRW programme director Virginia-class SSNs with the Virginia Payload at Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control. Module before 2030. According to Wolfe, the “This captive carry mission is the pre-cursor hypersonic weapon is expected to reach initial operational capability on the Virginias by 2028.  42 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in



INDIA 2021 NANO DRONES: A BIG IMPACT ON THE BATTLEFIELD A Black Hornet nano helicopter unmanned aerial vehicle MOD-UK Nano drones, the advanced systems that pack a lot of functionality into a tiny form factor, are becoming a major military tool. With China having a huge lead, India needs to get its act together, argues RAKESH KRISHNAN SIMHA Next time you spot a bee or dragonfly lethal and non-lethal roles. In a paper titled ‘Aerial around you, take a closer look. What Drones in Future Wars: A Conceptual Perspective’, might appear to be an annoying presented at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for insect could turn out to be a Defence Studies and Analyses, he writes: “Modern miniature (or nano) drone being disruptive technologies like Artificial Intelligence, controlled by someone far away. This isn’t science Internet of Things, miniaturised electronics, fiction but science fact – as unmanned aerial composites, etc, are taking the capabilities of vehicle technology advances, drones are getting unmanned systems to new highs and increasing smaller. Packing a lot of functionality into a tiny autonomy in their usage by turning them into form factor, nano drones are becoming a major smart and intelligent machines. With further military tool. Not only do they offer a quantum leap advancement of technology, their role in warfare is in surveillance capability, they hold the possibility set to increase exponentially.” of conducting swarm attacks on the enemy. Much of the action is currently happening in According to Group Captain Atul Pant, a the United States which is developing advanced serving member of the Indian Air Force, in future, nano drones with unique capabilities. For instance, new generation aerial drones will be at the center the Black Hornet from FLIR is designed to be used stage of military operations in warfare, in both as part of the US Army’s Soldier Borne Sensor 44 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 (SBS) programme – tools carried by an individual The technology is in its infancy. These small US NAVY soldier to support small unit-level surveillance drones can be hampered by strong winds, snow, and reconnaissance capabilities. More than 12,000 or rain. In addition, electromagnetic fields can A Honeywell RQ-16A T-Hawk Black Hornet nano-UAVs have been delivered to disrupt their operation. However, it is only a matter micro-air vehicle (MAV) in defence and security forces worldwide. of time before the Chinese build better versions of flight the Dove that can fly in these conditions. China’s Measuring less than 17 cm across and weighing drone swarming capability currently exceeds 1,000 Much of the under 33 grams, the drones have a range of nearly drones. action is currently 2 km at speeds of up to 21 kmph. They are able to fly for up to 25 minutes on a single charge. In Since, Pakistan is China’s test market, it is happening addition, they can take HD photos and provide live reasonable to expect that the Islamic nation will in the United video feeds. Data sent to operators on the ground, at some point get hold of stripped-down export States which equipped with a handheld ground control station models of nano drones like the Dove. is developing (GCS) unit which communicates with the drone, is Drones: Soldiers of the future advanced nano encrypted. A good intelligence capability is critical to win drones with unique wars. This is the area in which nano drones will capabilities. For “Extremely light, nearly silent, and with a flight be used primarily, at least in the early phase. The instance, the Black time up to 25 minutes, the combat-proven, pocket- right information at the right time could mean Hornet from FLIR sized Black Hornet PRS (personal reconnaissance the difference between lives saved and lives lost. is designed to be system) transmits live video and HD still images When your mission means everything, intelligent used as part of back to the operator,” says a FLIR press release. “It’s imaging ensures success. Instant access to real- US Army’s SBS information feed provides soldiers with immediate time intelligence of the situation – especially when programme covert situational awareness to help them perform beyond your line of sight – is vital. “With a camera missions more effectively.” in the air vehicle, soldiers will be able to see further and around obstacles that they previously wouldn't In Japan, the University of Tokyo unveiled the be able to see in near real time,” the US Army says. Dragon drone, a mini UAV made up of a number of small drones and is capable of changing its shape Weaponised nano drones are next. While the in midair. Moreover, it can determine what shape cheapest of these systems can carry only small to take based on the space in which it is navigating. payloads, the rapidly developing field of nano- Closer home energetics or nano-explosives will dramatically China has a successful military UAV programme, increase their destructive power. As early as 2002, which has been supplying drones to buyers nano-explosives demonstrated an explosive across the world. The varieties of Chinese drones power twice that of conventional explosives. Since probably now exceed those in the US. The Chinese research in this field is classified, proprietary, or are alleged to have developed its UAVs on pilfered both, it is difficult to say what, if any progress has and reverse engineered technologies; but have been made since that point. But even if double the subsequently improved upon them to develop the power is as good as it gets, a 100 percent increase current state-of-the-art ones. Chinese CH-4 UCAVs in destructive power for the same size weapon is a have already seen employment by the Iraq military massive increase. in several hundred missions against rebels. Drone miniaturisation is also driven by In 2017, the attack drone GJ-2 flew over the 8,848-meter-high Mount Everest, demonstrating Beijing’s ability to monitor Indian military movements round the clock. China’s EA-03 high- altitude, long-endurance drone is publicised to have a range of 7,000 km, a maximum endurance of 36 hours, advanced command communications, and electronic warfare systems. In October 2018, China demonstrated the TW-365 heavy lift cargo drone, and successfully tested the world’s largest unmanned transport drone capable of carrying up to 1.5 tonnes of load. At the same time, China is strengthening its surveillance network with birdlike small drones. The Chinese government’s “Dove” programme has been building small drones that resemble birds. In the past few years, at least 30 military and government agencies have deployed these fake birds in five provinces. According to Robotics Business Review, these small drones take flight similar to how birds do so, fly up to the speed of 40 km/h and have a wingspan of 50 cm. The Doves are equipped with high-definition cameras, flight-control systems, GPS antennas, and data links with satellite communication capability. www.geopolitics.in February 2021 45

INDIA 2021 logistics. For at least a century, much has been UAVs were launched from a canister and were written about the soldier's load, meaning that they instructed to find one another in the air. go into combat carrying heavy stuff that inhibits their effectiveness. While a tiny drone, the size of a Ironically, even as countries develop swarm sparrow or even a bumble bee may not sound like robotics for offensive purposes, they will have to much, it could be enough of a tipping point to limit also look to develop systems to protect against combat effectiveness. Thus, a lot of emphasis has foreign swarms. been placed on weight limitations. Group Captain Pant believes that from an air The US Army is looking at drone not weighing force’s point of view, small drones are evolving over 150 grams and perhaps fitting in a soldier's to become very potent air launched intelligent cargo pocket where it could be trickle charged autonomous weapons. With designs to launch in two hours or less. Ideally, the drone would fly from highspeed aerial platforms as well as missile about 1,000 meters, 50 to 70 feet in the air for 10 mounted canisters in swarms near the target, to 15 minutes. That would considerably enhance and armed with potent customised explosives, the situational awareness of a platoon-sized group, small sacrificial drones could splendidly serve allowing the soldiers to control and dominate the purpose of the air forces for striking soft and their area out to the limits of their small-arms fire semi-soft targets deep inside enemy territory (like capabilities. These mini drones are expected to parked aircraft inside blast protected shelters in be as quiet as a bumble bee so as not to alert the airfields, communication facilities, fuel bowsers, enemy. The system should also be simple so that radars, etc., and even strategic value targets like soldiers can operate it with a minimum of training cracking towers of oil refineries), while saturating time. the enemy airspace as well as radars (always the Swarm robotics much preferred tactic by air forces). As drone technology evolves, the more traditional military uses for unmanned systems are joined by The tactical employment of drones in contested new applications. Smaller drones can work together airspaces is likely to be mostly in mass, where they to target larger aircraft or missiles. This is known as saturate the airspace and make discernment of the swarm robotics. According to a report titled “The actual lethal ones and the decoys difficult. Coming Swarm: The Quality of Quantity” published by the Center for New American Security (CNAS), a Size matters. Says Pant: “Drones integrated foreign policy and national security think tank, the with the first wave of attack in a frontal land assault heightened “vulnerability” of assets to vessels and need to be small, expendable/self-sacrificial aircraft has led to investment in emerging robotic winged swarms swooping in, and intelligently technologies that can “fight as a swarm”. targeting soldiers or combat entities at speed and causing a large number of casualties/damages. The Pentagon’s Strategic Capabilities Office Besides being low in cost, these would bring shock division has tested micro drones that can be and awe. These would be much more effective deployed in the swarm role. These 3D-printed than a few highflying slow drones targeting enemy positions and combatants, where they are likely to be rather easily targeted by the enemy.” Nano drones would be less vulnerable to enemy Measuring less An EMT Aladin of than 17 cm across German Army and weighing WIKIMEDIA COMMONS under 33 grams, the drones have a range of nearly 2 km at speeds of up to 21 kmph. They are able to fly for up to 25 minutes on a single charge, take HD photos and provide live video feeds 46 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 fire due to their smaller size, and their inbuilt WIKIPEDIA China's GJ-2 attack drone evasive maneuvering and dodging capability. which has set a record by Since the unit costs would not be very high, large in January 2021, a swarm of 75 drones carried out flying over Mount Everest numbers could be packaged together for any a series of randomised, autonomous swarming mission, including a mix of recoverable as well as missions without any human intervention and Living in one expendable/self-sacrificial drones in the package. driven by continuous satellite feeds. This was of the world’s Designed with stealth, jet engines, EW suite, and achieved via close interaction between onboard most dangerous advanced weapons, such drone packages could computers, smart artificial intelligence algorithms, neighbourhoods, become a force to reckon with. advanced photometry and better target with radical India’s opportunity designation. Islamists on US-based Allied Market Research says work on both flanks and both general-purpose and military drones has The DRDO has also entered the game with an expansionist gained traction worldwide, and the global nano its ALFA-S swarming micro-drone designed for communist bully drone market could reach $13.4 billion by 2023. surface offensive purposes. on the northern Investment in drone R&D is still miniscule in India, Conclusion border, India has but on the bright side India’s leadership position in Living in one of the world’s most dangerous no choice but software can help it capture a significant chunk of neighbourhoods, with radical Islamists on both stay ahead of this market. flanks and an expansionist communist bully on these existential the northern border, India has no choice but A key factor which will influence the role of stay ahead of these existential enemies. A close enemies military drones is artificial intelligence (AI) which, partnership between government agencies and the together with miniaturisation of electronics, is private sector alone can ensure that developmental likely to give immense capabilities to smaller work can produce world class drones. With China drones. AI would open up a wide range of integrating drones into all wings of its military, it is functional capabilities in drones, many of which crucial for India to accord high priority to military were so far considered unviable to be performed drone development. autonomously by machines. Robotic warfare expert Peter Singer writes in Another aspect is managing power. Although “Wired for War” that remote warfare is changing miniature drones have become quite common in mankind's monopoly on how conflict is fought the past few years, their primary weakness is that for the first time in 5,000 years. “All that limits its most of their battery power goes into making them advance is its application, not the technology. fly, leaving little energy for other operations. To The barriers of war in our society are already resolve this issue, scientists are looking to combine lowering.” algorithms and hardware in a single chip. The author is a New Zealand-based strategic India’s edge in software could be a gamechanger analyst if the vast pool of IT talent could be tapped. As AI advances in the future, it is likely to require custom designed chips for drones, with higher processing power along with the miniaturisation of other electronic components and sensors, particularly for smaller drones. This would need an enhanced R&D effort in hardware designing, especially for the nations who are new to the field of drones and AI. Resilience against electronic warfare and cyber warfare will be other challenges in designing drone hardware. Says Group Captain Pant: “A very sensitive issue is the possibility of backdoors and trapdoors in the imported chips, electronics and software, making them vulnerable to cyber interference or attacks — which can render them totally unusable — even in mass at times. Indigenisation in these fields would be essential.” If India is to make the successful transition from a balancing to a leading power, self-reliance in technology is critical. Although a late starter, the Indian military is embracing drones with gusto. The Indian Army, for instance, has taken several technology initiatives in partnership with startups, MSMEs, the private sector, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and defence PSUs. One such project is Offensive Operations that the Army is incubating with a Bangalore-based startup. In a live demonstration for army officers www.geopolitics.in February 2021 47

INDIA 2021 Defence Minister Rajnath Singh riding atop a K-9 Vajra self-propelled artillery piece PIB MSMES CAN MAKE OR MAR ‘MAKE IN INDIA’ INITIATIVE The fulcrum of the ‘Make in India’ programme is the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) segment and, as of now, the MSMEs are thought of only as an adjunct. But that is slowly changing, explains R CHANDRAKANTH How did China become the only established special economic zones with ‘factory of the world’? It had market-friendly rules, but also gave a solid and has plenty of cheap labour, platform for the small and medium enterprises abundant raw materials, lax (SMEs) which over the years have consolidated environmental rules and focused their position. entrepreneurs to capture markets. And in the late 1970s, it embraced a series of market As per research firm Statista, each year about reforms, despite being a communist state, 5 million SMEs get added to the list in China, and that was the beginning of its journey to representing at least a 10 per cent year-over-year become a manufacturing superpower. It not growth rate. In 2019, the number of SMEs was estimated to be over 38 million. On the other 48 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in

INDIA 2021 PIB An indigenously-developed Pinaka multiple rocket hand, India has 63.3 million MSMEs. Wait, here launcher being test-fired in is the catch, of the 63.3 million, 99.4 percent (that salvo-mode on December is 63 million) are micro-enterprises while 0.52 20, 2019 percent (3.31 lakh) are small enterprises and 0.007 percent (5,000) are medium enterprises. Slew of measures Of the 63.3 million Of this number, those in the realm of defence Understanding the travails of the MSMEs, the Indian MSMEs, manufacturing is miniscule, one because government in September 2020 announced 99.4 percent are the defence sector is just opening up for new a slew of measures that would prop up the micro-enterprises businesses and two the private sector does not segment. The government has made specific consider defence production as a lucrative reservations for MSMEs under the ‘Make’ while 0.52 business, besides the severe bureaucratic procedure. An innovation ecosystem for defence percent are small obstacles it has to face. The present dispensation titled. “Innovations for Defence Excellence’ enterprises and is trying its best to create an eco-system wherein (iDEX) has been launched, aimed at creation MSMEs will have a major role to play in the of an ecosystem to foster innovation and 0.007 percent ‘Make in India’ initiative. technology developed in aerospace by engaging are medium Pandemic derails MSMEs industries including MSMEs. The government enterprises Meanwhile, the pandemic has derailed many also created a portal named SRIJAN for DPSUs, businesses, particularly MSMEs. An Ernst & Ordnance Factory Boards and Services with Young study said that 40 per cent of the MSMEs an industry interface to provide development in the defence sector may shut down, unless the support to MSMEs/Startups/Industry for government stepped in with support packages. import substitution. The study indicated that it may take a year for Simplification of ‘Make’ procedure the MSMEs to get back on their feet. The initiatives taken to make MSMEs competent in defence production include simplification The report mentioned: “As far as the issue of ‘Make’ procedure with provisions for of financial resources for procurement from funding of 90 per cent of development cost industry is concerned, it is important to realise by the government to Indian industry and a way so that military modernisation doesn’t reserving government-funded Make-I projects take a hit. Capital defence budget consists not exceeding development cost of `10 crore not only of modernisation, but also land, and procurement cost `50 crore per year for construction work, etc. The 20 percent cap MSMEs. The industry funded Make-II projects should be enforced on the budget outlay for not exceeding development cost of `3 crore and such segments without hampering military procurement cost `50 crore per year have also modernisation.” been reserved for MSMEs. About 11,000 MSMEs as vendors are engaged in supplying various items to OFB and DPSUs. Further, in order to encourage MSMEs and www.geopolitics.in February 2021 49

INDIA 2021 Mahindra Marksman - MAHINDRAARMORED.COM India’s first armoured capsule-based light bulletproof vehicle indigenously developed by Indian industry An Ernst & Young procurement from local suppliers, 26 items out to the Stockholm International Peace Research study said that of 127 already notified, have now been notified Institute (SIPRI). 40 percent of the under Clause-3(a) of the Public Procurement MSMEs in the (Preference to Make in India) Order 2017. All these Indian undertakings also have defence sector This means all the procuring entities shall a huge vendor base but a lot needs to be done may shutdown, procure these items only from local suppliers, if ‘Make in India’ has to truly happen. The unless the irrespective of the purchase value, provided that opportunities are immense, so are the challenges government steps the local suppliers meet the Minimum Local and if India is looking at a defence industrial in with support Content (MLC) as prescribed for each item. There realm, it has to tweak its policies, keeping in packages are a variety of items in the amended list which mind the MSMEs. The Ministry of Defence has is used in defence manufacturing industry and been constantly looking to increase the vendor some specifically in shipbuilding Industry. base as self-reliance and indigenisation are crucial. The fulcrum of the ‘Make in India’ Order sustainability is urgent programme is the micro, small and medium Prakash Pushpak, the Chairman of the MSME enterprises (MSMEs) segment and, as of now, Defence Suppliers Group of FISME (Federation the MSMEs are thought of only as an adjunct. of Indian Micro and Small & Medium Enteprises) But that is slowly changing. and the Managing Director of Pushpak Products Lockheed Martin example India Pvt Ltd, states, “Unless the bureaucracy Indian defence public sector undertakings understands the issues on the ground, the and other major players have to rework their MSME sector will continue to struggle, living in approaches with MSMEs, while policy changes an uncertain business environment.” are urgent. A fine example is that of US aerospace and defence major Lockheed Martin, which not The MSMEs live on ‘uncertainty of orders’. only has a huge supplier base, but also systems Prakash substantiates, “For instance, I develop in place to ensure their growth (dedicated a product, investing time and money, and then portal for suppliers; training programme for the Defence PSU calls for a tender where the L1 suppliers; quick payment processes, etc). Not bags the order, then all my efforts of product for nothing, Lockheed Martin is the world’s development goes waste. There has to be top arms seller with a billing of $44.9 billion in consistency of orders.” The rationale to opt for 2017, whereas four Indian companies (Ordnance L1 needs to be questioned. Under-quoting to win Factories, HAL, BEL, and Bharat Dynamics Ltd) an order does not really help either the vendor or totalled sales of $7.5 billion, representing a 1.9 the OEM and in the end there are cost overruns, per cent share of Top 100 arms sales, according delays, substandard product etc. MSME, he mentions, is like a coconut tree, the fruits of 50 February 2021 www.geopolitics.in