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Home Explore 2017 US SOH_Pulse Production Report

2017 US SOH_Pulse Production Report

Published by USA Pulses, 2018-01-19 13:56:03

Description: 2017 US SOH_Pulse Production Report

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2017 PSUTLOSCERKEPSaUPR-nSOOOdARDNTU-HCATNIODNUSADPLC • 2780 W. Pullman Road, Moscow, ID 83843 • www.usapulses.org • Ph: 208.882.3023

2017 U.S. PULSE CROPSSTOCKS-on-HAND 2C0o1p8yright Statistics and analysis prepared by Pete Klaiber, Vice President of Marketing, and Tayebeh Soltani, Assistant Marketing Manager.REPORThe following report combines data collected Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), a unit in theTfrom USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA. In looking at these charts, keep in mind that(NASS) semi-annual Stocks-on-Hand Report for peas, the column on the left is reporting the figures for thelentils and chickpeas, as well as their crop production 6-month period ending November 30, 2017 using thereport published on January 12, 2018. data released today, and the column on the right is reporting supply and disappearance figures for theThe Stocks on Hand figures as of December 1, 2017 12-month period ending May 31, 2017, using datawere released today for peas, lentils and chickpeas. released last summer.These numbers are compiled by the National USA Pulse Growing Regions by County 2017 Source: USDA/FSA2017 Dry Pea Lentil Chickpea Dry Bean Total(NASS) 618,800 1,473,200 4,350,500 313,209 1,312,709 2,614,033Acres 1,154,500 1,104,000(Planted)Prod.(MT) 648,734 339,381Page 2 of 8 Data published January 12, 2018

C20o1p8yright 2017 U.S. PULSE CROPS STOCKS-on-HAND REPORTDRY PEA SUPPLY/DEMAND 6 MOS 6 MOS 12 MOS JUN 2017 - NOV 2017 JUN 2016 - NOV 2016 JUN 2016 - MAY 2017 SUPPLYCarry In✶ 196,135 168,375 168,375Production (MT)✶ 648,734 1,258,142 1,258,142Imports ✿ 132,137 53,651 130,000Total US Supply 977,006 1,480,168 1,556,517 DISAPPEARANCEExports ✿ 166,721 320,905 550,000Domestic Food★ 250,000 301,476 600,000Domestic Feed/Waste★ 59,570 40,000 136,382Total Domestic(ex. seed) 309,570 368,222 736,382Seed★ 60,000 115,000 74,000Total Usage 536,291 804,127 1,360,382Stocks-on-Hand (SOH) ✶ 440,715 676,041 196,135SOH as % of US Supply 45.1% 45.7% 12.6%Our total supply of peas fell by about one-third ✶ Source: USDA/NASS from 2016 to 2017, and would have fallen ✿ Source: FAS/GATSfurther except for an increase in pea imports in ★ Source: USADPLC Estimatesthe last six months. With pea exports running ata slower pace than last year, and domestic usagerunning flat, our stocks on hand have increased. Atthe end of May, 2017, pea stocks represented only12.6% of the 2016 crop year supply. Given that the1 DEC stocks total over 440,000 MT and importshave been strong, we project the S-O-H figure fordry peas at the end of May, 2018 will rise to around35%.Data published January 12, 2018 Page 3 of 8

2C0o1p8yright 2017 U.S. PULSE CROPS STOCKS-on-HAND REPORTLENTIL SUPPLY/DEMAND 6 MOS 6 MOS 12 MOS JUN 2017 - NOV 2017 JUN 2016 - NOV 2016 JUN 2016 - MAY 2017 SUPPLYCarry In✶ 55,067 22,135 22,135Production (MT)✶ 339,381 575,387 575,387Imports ✿ 29,370 19,627 45,000Total US Supply 423,818 617,149 642,522 DISAPPEARANCEExports ✿ 125,335 182,167 360,000Domestic★ 68154 168,880 194,455Seed★ 40,000 32,500 33,000Total Usage 233,489 383,547 587,455Stocks-on-Hand (SOH) ✶ 190,329 2✶3 3So,6u0rc2e: USDA/NASS 55,067 ✿ Source: FAS/GATSSOH as % of US Supply 44.9% ★3 S7o.u9r%ce: USADPLC Estimates 8.6%Lentil production dropped by over 40% in 2017. Lentil ✶ Source: USDA/NASS exports have fallen as well, but not as sharply. As with peas, ✿ Source: FAS/GATSincreased imports are pushing supplies higher, which increases ★ Source: USADPLC Estimatesour total supply, but we think that by the end of May, 2018, lentilS-O-H will have fallen to about 20% of supply for year.Page 4 of 8 Data published January 12, 2018

2C0o1p8yright 2017 U.S. PULSE CROPS STOCKS-on-HAND REPORTCHICKPEA 6 MOS 6 MOS 12 MOS SUPPLY/DEMAND JUN 2017 - NOV 2017 JUN 2016 - NOV 2016 JUN 2016 - MAY 2017 SUPPLYCarry In✶ 19,232 27,986 27,986Production (MT)✶ 313,209 247,074 247,074Imports ✿ 28,261 26,861 60,000Total US Supply 360,702 301,921 335,060 DISAPPEARANCEExports ✿ 112,210 81,053 155,000Domestic★ 94,514 108,346 128,828Seed★ 35,000 14,500 32,000Total Usage 241,724 203,899 315,828Stocks-on-Hand (SOH) ✶ 118,978 98,022 19,232SOH as % of US Supply 33.0% 32.5% 5.7%✶ Source: USDA/NASS✿ Source: FAS/GATS★ Source: USADPLC EstimatesChickpea production rose in 2017, as the positive effect of moreacres planted overcame the negativeeffect of lower yields. That hashelped keep chickpea imports downcompared to a year ago. Exports havebeen strong, and domestic usage hasbeen higher than last year. All in all,it looks like chickpea stocks will betight by 1 JUN, perhaps falling below5% by then.Data published January 12, 2018 Page 5 of 8

C20o1p8yright2017 U.S. PULSE CROPSSTOCKS-on-HAND REPORTTables and Maps compiled by:Tayebeh Soltani, Assistant Marketing ManagerComments by:Pete Klaiber, VP of MarketingSource: USDA/FSA.FINAL NOTEAt the bottom of every pitch telling you how to make a killing in the stockmarket is some fine print that says, \"past performance is no guarantee of future results.\" That certainly ap-plies here. We have had a bumpy ride for the last few months, but December brought us the imposition of pulsetariffs in India, and the uncertainty of a continuing fumigation waiver in the next crop year, and that's when theride got a lot rougher. We think that the India situation will lead to fewer acres and fewer exports in 2018, but itis difficult to 'fine-tune' a forecast given the number of variables involved. Domestic usage and exports beyondthe Sub-Continent should continue to rise, but until we have a better sense of India's plans going forward, anyestimates will be only guesses, and any guesses will be only whims.2P0u1ls7e UPSroAduction Maps2017 (NASS) Small Kabuli Large Kabuli Total USA Chickpea Growing Regions by Planted Acreage 179,500 439,300 618,800Production (MT) 88,905 224,304 313,209 CountyPage 6 of 8 2017 Source: USDA/FSA Data published January 12, 2018

P20u1ls7e UPSroAduction Maps 2C0o1p8yright USA Dry Pea Growing Regions by County 2017 Source: USDA/FSA2017 (NASS) TotalAcres (Planted) 1,154,500Production (MT) 648,7342017 (NASS) Total USA Lentil Growing Regions by CountyAcres (Planted) 1,104,000Production (MT) 339,381 2017Data published January 12, 2018 Source: USDA/FSA Page 7 of 8

2P0u1ls7e UPSroAduction Maps 2C0o1p8yright USA Fallow Regions by County, 2017 Source:USDA/FSA WA ID MT 1,259,741 acre 199,144 acre 471,733 acre Oregon ND 595,303 acre 134,975 acre SDWY124,748 acre 174,485 acre NE 823,944 acre KS 3,108,913 acreCO1,704,063 acre TOTAL: 11 Million AcresPage 8 of 8 Data published January 12, 2018


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