The Economist magazine bilingual reading summary

From The Economist print edition Andrea Jung is determined to use the recession to boost the fortunes of both Avon and its saleswomen 钟彬娴(Andrea Jung)决心利用经济衰退期给雅芳和它的销售人员创造更多发展机会 ON THE wall behind the desk of Andrea Jung, the boss of Avon, a beauty company, hangs a plaque labelled “The Evolution of Leadership”. It displays four footprints: that of an ape, then a barefoot man, then a man's shoe and finally a high-heeled shoe. It is a symbol both of Avon's self-proclaimed mission to empower women and of Ms Jung's own high-heeled ascent to the corner office. 雅芳化妆品公司的老板钟彬娴办公桌后面的墙上挂着一幅题为“引领变革”的匾，它描述了四个阶段：猿人， 到光脚的人，然后是鞋，最后是双高跟鞋。它代表了雅芳赋予女人力量的自我理念，也是钟彬娴个人职业 攀升经历的象征。 Appropriately enough, Ms Jung first saw the plaque hanging in the office of James Preston, the previous boss of Avon, when she was interviewed for a job at the firm in 1993. She asked him whether he believed there would ever be a female chief executive of Avon, which had never had one. He said there should be. What is more, he offered her a job (and gave her the plaque when she became chief executive). The belief that Avon would do well by its female staff is one of the reasons Ms Jung joined the firm, the world's biggest direct seller, with revenues of $10 billion annually and operations in more than 100 countries. 很巧的是，钟彬娴是在 1993 年到雅芳面试时第一次看到悬挂在雅芳前老板詹姆斯.雷斯顿(James Preston)办 公室中的这块匾。她问詹姆斯.雷斯顿(James Preston)是否认为雅芳应该一位女性执行总监，那时雅芳历史上 是没有女执行总监的。詹姆斯.雷斯顿(James Preston)赞同了她的意见。更重要的是，詹姆斯.雷斯顿(James Preston)提供给她一份工作(并且当她成为执行总监时把这块匾送给了她)。雅芳的女性员工会使雅芳做得更 好的理念也是钟彬娴加入雅芳这个年利润 100 亿，业务涵盖 100 多个国家的全球最大的直销公司的一个原 因。 Ms Jung is quick to point out that Avon offers opportunities to women in humbler positions as well. It employs 9 m sales representatives, more than 95% of whom are women, to sell its products for a commission, mainly by door-to-door hawking. Around 70% of Avon's sales are in developing countries: Brazil, Russia and Mexico have become Avon's largest markets after America. Saleswomen in those countries are attracted by the potential

earnings and by the loans Avon offers to help new representatives get started. The income, she says, can be significant by local standards. The job is particularly attractive to women who want to work more flexible hours, achieve financial independence or run their own business. Ms Jung takes Avon's image as a friend to women very seriously. She changed the firm's slogan from “Ding dong! Avon calling”to “The company for women”. And Avon donates lavishly to women's causes, including campaigns against breast cancer and domestic violence. 钟彬娴很快提出也应该提供给那些地位稍低的女性一些就业机会。雅芳雇佣了 900 万个销售代表，来代理 销售它的产品，其中有 95%是女性，她们的工作方式主要是挨家挨户推销。雅芳 70%的销售额来自发展中 国家：巴西，俄罗斯和墨西哥已经成为了继美国之后雅芳最大的市场。这些国家的销售员被雅芳的潜在收 益和雅芳提供给新代理的创业贷款所吸引。关于收入，她说会高于本地标准。这份工作对那些想要灵活工 作时间的、要经济独立的女性或者想自己开公司的女性都很有吸引力。钟女士十分严谨地把雅芳的形象定 义为女性的朋友。她把公司的口号“叮咚！雅芳在召唤”改为“女人的公司”。并且雅芳很慷慨地为女性事业 捐款，包括对乳腺癌防止活动和反对家庭暴力活动。 Ms Jung's life story is just the sort of inspirational tale that Avon's sales representatives would like to hear. She is the daughter of Chinese immigrants who moved first to Canada and then to America. They spoke little English, but she managed to get into Princeton and graduate with honours. She then started her career at Bloomingdales, an upmarket department-store chain. She did stints at several ritzy retailers, including I. Magnin and Neiman Marcus, before starting at Avon. 钟女士的生活经历正是雅芳销售代理们乐于听到的令人振奋传奇故事。她来自移民加拿大的中国家庭，然 后从加拿大移民到了美国。他们几乎不会说英语，但是钟女士却努力考进了普林斯顿，并且以优异的成绩 毕业。然后她在布鲁明戴尔百货店(Bloomingdales),一家高档的连锁商店开始了她的职业生涯。到雅芳工作 之前，她在 I. Magnin (女性奢侈品公司)和内曼·马库斯等多家精品店工作过。 But Ms Jung's career has not been without its setbacks. She was passed over in 1996, when she first competed for the job of chief executive, receiving the number two spot instead. Nor has everything gone smoothly since she at last became boss two years later. After six consecutive years of double-digit growth, the firm's fortunes took a dramatic turn for the worse in 2005. Sales declined in key markets, and Avon's share price plummeted. 钟女士的事业也不是一帆风顺的。她在 1996 年第一次竞选执行总监职位时落选了，取而代之的是得到了另 外次选职位。而自从两年后她最终成为公司的老板以后一切都很顺利。在连续 6 年两位数的业绩增加之后， 雅芳的命运在 2005 年发生了戏剧性的转折，销售额在主要市场直线下降，雅芳的股票价格下滑。 “You have to go home tonight, Friday evening, and you've got to fire yourself,”a management coach told her. The intention was for her to come to work the following Monday as if starting the job anew. In the end, she decided it was others who had to go: she eliminated seven layers of management to improve efficiency, dispensing with more than 25% of senior staff. Although she cut costs in most areas, she decided to spend more on distribution and advertising. That difficult episode, she says, taught her to have a “constant turnaround mentality”. She now seeks out sales representatives and senior management to hear their criticisms of the company and their ideas about what Avon should be doing differently “even when the sun is shining”.

“今晚你一定得回家，周五晚上，你要解雇你自己，”一个管理教练对她说。意思是说接下来的周一她来工 作要像开始一个新工作一样。最终她决定有些人必须得离开：她取消了七个管理层来改善效率，并且辞退 多于 25%的高级员工。她在很多方面消减开支，却决定花更多钱在销售和广告上。她说这次的困境让她学 会了“持续转变思想”。现在她找来那些销售代表和高层管理人员，听取他们对公司的批评，以及对雅芳应 该在哪些地方做出改变的建议，即使现状看起来“一片春光明媚”。 Ms Jung thinks the current recession offers Avon a “seminal”opportunity to stand out among the cosmetics giants. Other beauty companies, like Estée Lauder, are struggling because of consumer cutbacks amid the recession. But low prices (many of its products cost less than $10) and a unique distribution channel make it easier for Avon to cope with the adverse conditions. By relying on a grassroots sales force, Avon has been able to reach new buyers, particularly in places like China and Brazil where many people live far from any shopping malls. Avon has also modernised the way it does business, for example by creating platforms for sales representatives to sell products online. In March Avon launched the biggest hiring drive in its history, spending roughly $400 m on advertising that promotes Avon as a potential career for people recently laid off. It has been recruiting vigorously online, at job fairs and outside unemployment offices. It has also nearly doubled its marketing budget. 钟女士认为现在的经济萧条给雅芳提供了一个脱颖而出的“再生”机会。其他的化妆品公司，像雅诗兰黛 (Estée Lauder)在痛苦挣扎是因为他们的顾客因经济萧条而减少。但是低廉的价格(它的很多产品价格低于 10 美元)和独一无二的销售渠道使雅芳在相反的环境中应付自如。依靠基层的销售力量,雅芳能得到更多的客 户，尤其是像中国、巴西这样的城市，在这些地方很多人住处远离购物商场。雅芳也在尝试使用更加现代 化的商业模式，例如为销售代表提供网络销售平台。3 月雅芳举行了历史上最大型的招聘会，大约花费 4 亿美元在广告宣传上，让那些失业的人可以把雅芳作为一个潜在职业。雅芳一直在网上、招聘会和失业办 公室外大力招聘。它已经几乎把市场预算扩大一倍。 Time for a makeover 改头换面的时刻 All this might be working. Profits fell in the first quarter from a year earlier, but by less than those of many rivals. Around 1 m new sales representatives have joined Avon since the beginning of last year, attracted by its message of job security in these lean times. In March the number of new sales representatives was up 47% in America compared with the previous year and 148% in Mexico, for example. Past recessions have led some in the industry to hypothesise that lipstick sells well in hard times because women substitute small luxuries for bigger ones, though statistical evidence for this claim is lacking. In Avon's case, its performance really does seem to be aided by another counter-cyclical correlation: the number of those eager to work in beauty appears to rise sharply as unemployment goes up. 所有这些可能起一些作用。第一季度利润有所下降，但是远少于一些竞争对手们。从去年年初开始，已经 又一百万人被雅芳的就业保证所吸引，加入了雅芳。今年 3 月美国销售代表的人数与去年相比增长了 47%， 墨西哥增长了 148%。过去的经济萧条在企业中产生了一些假说，口红行业在经济困难时期却卖得很好，因 为女人用小的奢侈品代替了大件的，虽然这一说还法缺少统计数据来证明。以雅芳为例，它的表现看起来

是真的受了到反危机相关性的保护：当失业增加时，渴望在化妆品行业工作的人数会显著增加。 There are still plenty of difficulties in store for Ms Jung. It will be hard to train so many new representatives and to retain them once the global economy rebounds. One industry analyst thinks investors do not yet have full confidence in her again after the problems the firm experienced in 2005. And Ms Jung's compensation increased almost 76% in 2008, to over $19 m. Given the sour public mood about executive pay, some investors may consider such a rise empowerment run amok. 钟女士的公司仍然会面临很多的困难。培训这些新的销售代表并且在经济恢复之后留住他们是十分艰难的。 一些经济分析家认为在雅芳经历了 2005 年的问题之后，投资者对她的再次度过难关没有足够的信心。2008 年，钟女士的补偿金增长了 76%，已经达到 1900 万美元.鉴于大众对高管薪酬的酸涩情绪，一些投资者认 为这样的灌能增长一定存问题。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Muck, brass and spleen 污泥、黄铜还有怨气 Executive pay at Royal Dutch Shell 皇家荷兰壳牌公司的高管薪酬 Muck, brass and spleen 污泥，黄铜还有怨气 May 21st 2009 From The Economist print edition An oil giant's shareholders flex their muscles 石油巨头的股东们大显身手 MOST firms' annual general meetings (AGMs) owe more to North Korea than ancient Greece. By long-standing tradition, bosses make platitudinous speeches, listen to lone dissidents with the air of psychiatric nurses towards patients and wait for their own proposals to be rubber-stamped by the proxy votes of obedient institutional investors. According to Manifest, a shareholder-advice firm, 97% of votes cast across Europe last year backed management. 大多数公司的年度大会(AGMs)相比起古希腊更应该感谢朝鲜。依据长期以来的传统，在大会上，老板做着 乏善可陈的讲演，带着精神科护士对待病人的神态任凭反对者孤军奋战，只等着逆来顺受的投资者在自己 的提案上盖章。像股东决策公司 Manifest,去年在欧洲就以 97%的选票将决策权归还给了管理层。 So should corporate democrats be cheered by the rebellion over pay at Royal Dutch Shell? At the oil giant's AGM on May 19 th, 59% of voting shareholders sided against pay packages for top executives. In particular they disliked

经济学人杂志双语阅读：Reading between the lines 杂志业：字里行间地读 Face value 商业人物 Reading between the lines 杂志业：字里行间地读 Mar 26th 2009 From The Economist print edition As glossy magazines struggle, Ann Moore of Time Inc wants technology to be the solution, not the problem 滑丽多彩的杂志业处地艰难，时代集团总裁安穆尔要将技术作为解决的手段，而非当成问题的所在 Bloomberg THERE are few things that unnerve Ann Moore, the chief executive of Time Inc, America's largest magazine company, as much as young Americans' “shock”when they hear that her firm will have to start charging them. “Real reporting takes time and money and effort,”she says. “Somebody does have to pay for the Baghdad bureau.” A recession is a difficult time to convince readers that they need to start paying for information, however, particularly because Time Inc, a division of Time Warner, a media giant, has long made its articles available free online. But a new model is needed, and Ms Moore is trying all sorts of things in her effort to find one. On March 18th her company launched Mine, for example, a new concept that allows readers to go online and select articles from eight titles, for delivery in print or online as a free, personalised magazine. If this proves popular, the company may start charging for it. This nifty scheme highlights Time Inc's eagerness to attract readers to its magazines-but its ambivalence about adding a price tag. 时代集团执行总裁，安•穆尔〔Ann Moore〕，几乎没因任何东西而感到焦躁，就其程度而言，可比当其公 司年轻的员工们得知她要让自己为文章付费之时所感到的“震惊”。“真正的报导需要的是时间，金钱和精 力，”她说，“总会有人要向我们的巴格达分社掏腰包。”在经济衰退的时期，很难说服读者们需要开始为资

讯付费，而在时代华纳旗下的传媒巨鳄时代集团早就使自己的文章可以在网上免费获得的情况之下尤是如 此。但是现在需要新的模式，为了找到这样一个模式，穆尔女士正尝试着各种各样的方式。比如在 3 月 18 日，时代集团开创了“Mine”，这是一个新的概念，读者可以上网从 8 个标题中选择自己想要的以印刷版送 至或者直接在网上编集的文章，作为一种免费的、个人化的杂志。如果这一项目受到欢迎，那么公司可能 就会开始要求读者为此付费。这一妙招强调了时代集团想要读者被公司杂志所吸引的热切心态-然而真正吸 引读者的，则是公司对这种杂志是否标价的模棱两可。 As the boss of a company which oversees 120 magazine titles including Time, People, Sports Illustrated and Fortune, Ms Moore faces the difficult task of keeping magazines relevant as household budgets shrink, the appeal of free content online grows, and advertisers reduce their spending. At some of her magazines, such as Time, advertising revenues are down by around 30% compared with this time last year, according to Media Industry Newsletter. Ms Moore has had to tear up her company's five-year plan and draft a new two-year one instead, focusing on two things: internal reorganisation and innovation. 在家庭预算紧缩，免费网上内容的呼声增加，加之广告商削减开支的情况下，作为一家掌管包括《时代》、 《人物》、《体育画报》以及《财富》在内的 120 种杂志公司的老总，穆尔女士面对保持公司杂志业务兴 旺的艰难任务。据传媒业时事通讯报导，她的公司经营的某些杂志-比如说《时代》-收入同比下滑了 30% 左右。穆尔女士得彻底废弃公司的五年计划，同时得起草一项新的两年计划取其代之，焦点集中在两个方 面：内部重组以及创新。 After laying off around 600 people, Ms Moore has restructured the firm into three units-news, entertainment and lifestyle-grouping together magazines with similar material, advertisers and audiences. The aim is to maintain editorial quality while increasing efficiency, because titles can share writers and articles and pool resources for functions, such as subscription services. Ms Moore has also turned her attention to training, launching “Time Inc University”, a series of seminars led by Time executives on topics such as branding and teamwork, in February. Ms Moore will teach one of these seminars herself. 在裁员 600 人左右之后，穆尔女士将公司结构重整为 3 个单元-新闻，娱乐，以及生活方式，将杂志同类似 的材料、广告及读者组在一起。其目的是为了在提高效率的同时保持编辑的质量，因为不同主题的杂志可 以共享作者、文章以及整合在一起的资源来进行运作，比如订阅服务。穆尔女士还将注意力投向了培训业。 2 月份，她创设了“时代集团大学”，该项目提供由时代杂志主管们主持的关于诸如品牌战略、团队协作等一 系列研讨会。穆尔女士自己也会参与教授部分研讨课程。 At the same time, Ms Moore is building her magazines' brands and taking them in new directions. Under her, some titles have moved beyond the printed word and into popular culture. People co-hosts the Screen Actors Guild Awards Gala, for example, and Essence sponsors an annual concert of African-American music. Late last year the company announced an elaborate scheme called “Maghound”-an online subscription service that lets readers pick several magazines to receive each month in the post, and gives them the chance to switch titles whenever they like. Ms Moore sees promise in using the internet to make readers loyal to print magazines. “The industry needs to use technology to our advantage,”she says.

同时，穆尔女士着手打造公司的杂志品牌，并将这些杂志引向新的轨道。在她的打造下，一些刊物已经超 越印刷文字的界线而进入通俗文化领域。比如，群众同演员工会一起颁发戛纳电影节奖项，以及《精华》 杂志赞助每年一度的非裔美国人音乐会。去年年底，公司宣布了一项精心制作的“Maghound”项目-一项网上 订阅服务，读者可以选择几种杂志每月寄送给他们。同时通过这个项目，为读者提供了在他们希望的任何 时间换刊物的机会。穆尔女士看到了使用互联网获得读者对其杂志的忠诚的美好前景。她说：“这个行业需 要使用科学技术，使之成为我们的优势。” Ms Moore has seen the magazine industry evolve, and weather technological shifts, for over three decades. She graduated from Harvard Business School in 1978 with 13 job offers, including one from Time Inc. She accepted it, even though it paid the least, because she had grown up reading Time and dreamt of working at Sports Illustrated. She started as a financial analyst and rose to become associate publisher of Sports Illustrated, but it soon became clear to her that the magazine, a very male title at a company dominated by men, would not make her publisher in a hurry. So she moved to People in 1991, and helped make it one of the most profitable magazines in the world. 30 多年来，穆尔女士目睹了杂志业的演变，以及科技在演变中发挥的作用。1978 年，她拿着 13 个 offer 从哈佛商学院毕业，这些 offer 中包括一份来自时代集团的。尽管时代集团提供的薪水最低，但她接受了这 个工作，因为她自己是读者时代杂志长大并一直希望能够在《体育画刊》项目组工作。她一开始的职位是 金融分析师，随后晋升为《体育画报》的联合出版商。但是她很快清晰意识到，一份在有男人主宰的公司 中制作的一本极度男性化的刊物将不会使她立马成为主要出版商。于是在 1991 年，她转至《人物》杂志， 并且将其打造为世界上利润最高的杂志之一。 It was at People that Ms Moore was spotted by Richard Parsons, who later became chief executive of Time Warner and chose Ms Moore as chief executive of Time Inc in 2002. According to Mr Parsons, who is now chairman of Citigroup, Ms Moore was “bright, charming, energetic, fun and gutsy”and had the skills to “transform Time Inc from a magazine company to a publishing company”that made its output available online as well as in print. But Mr Parsons, who has watched her career closely, admits that she is now operating in troubled waters, as she tries to cope with a recession in addition to the rise of the internet. 正是在《人物》杂志社工作的时候，理查德•帕森斯〔Richard Parsons〕注意到了她。理查德后来成为时代 华纳的首席执行官，在 2002 年，他选定穆尔女士作为时代集团的执行总裁。在帕森斯的眼中，(他现在是 花旗银行主席)，穆尔女士“聪明，魅力，精力充沛，令人愉悦并且富有胆识”，同时她具有“将是对集团从 一个杂志公司做成出版公司”使公司的版物具有网页版和印刷版两个版本的能力。但是，密切关注穆尔女士 职业生涯的帕森斯先生承认，穆尔女士现在处于水深火热之中，因为在应对经济衰退的同时，她还得应对 互联网越加如日中天的这一压力。 Ever the optimist 极度乐观主义 Ms Moore is a self-described “magazine optimist”who thinks that holding a glossy magazine beats looking at a screen. Magazines may indeed be better placed than newspapers to cope with the recession and readers' shift towards the web. But given the woes of America's newspapers, many of which have gone bust or shifted to scaled-down, web-only operations, that is not saying much. And despite her love of print, Ms Moore is not afraid

of technology. In February Time ran a cover story entitled “How to Save Your Newspaper”which crystallised a growing belief within the industry that providing articles to readers free online is not sustainable, and that a switch to paid access will be necessary. Ms Moore thinks her firm can lead the way in this shift from freebies to fees. This month Time Inc said it was considering the introduction of a hybrid (or “freemium”) scheme, making some People and Time articles available free, but charging for premium content. But this approach has been tried before, notably by the New York Times, which later abandoned it. 穆尔女士称自己是“杂志乐观派”，她觉得手捧一本纸张滑丽的杂志强过对着电视屏幕。在应对经济衰退及 读者目光向网络的转移方面，杂志业或许确实处于比报纸业更有利的处境。但是，在美国报纸业步履维艰 的环境下(许多报纸都已经破产或者开始转为削减规模的、仅供网络的运作)，说杂志业比报纸业处境要好 其实也并不能说明多少东西。而且，尽管她热爱印刷，但是穆尔女士并不畏惧科技。2 月份，《时代》杂 志发行了一期封面为“如何保住你的报纸”。在这期杂志中，明确的表达了愈发增强的、在这个行业内向读 者提供免费的网上期刊是不可持续的信仰，而且一个向付费获取杂志内容的转变是必要的。穆尔女士认为 她的公司能够引领这场免费到付费的转化。这个月，时代集团表示，公司正在考虑引入一种混合(或者“免 费加付费”)项目，在此项目下，部分《人物》及《时代》杂志的文章可以免费获得，而对需要付费的内容 进行资费。但是这中模式曾经已经使用过，特别是随后便放弃了这一做法的《纽约时报》。 Another possibility is that readers may be prepared to subscribe to content on portable devices such as Amazon's Kindle e-reader or advanced “smart”phones. Ms Moore says it might make sense for her company to subsidise such devices if readers agree to sign up for enough material-an approach that would make particular sense for Time Inc, with its wide range of titles. Ms Moore is already talking to makers of e-readers about working together. The music industry, she notes, missed out because it was afraid to embrace technology. She is determined not to let the same thing happen in magazine publishing. 另一个可能就是，读者可能要准备通过例如亚马逊公司开发的“Kindle”网络阅读器或者高度“智能”的手机这 类可携带设备来订阅公司的杂志。穆尔女士说，如果读者愿意订阅足够的杂志资料，那么资助这类设备对 公司来说是合情合理的(这种方式对杂志范围广泛的时代集团来说是尤其合理的)。穆尔女士已经开始和网 络阅读器的制造商开始进行合作的磋商。她说，音乐行业之所以退出潮流，是因为这个行业在科技面前畏 缩了。她决心不会让这种事情在杂志出版业发生。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Tough enough?够不够强硬？ Lexington 列克星敦 Tough enough? 够不够强硬？ May 28th 2009

From The Economist print edition Barack Obama must pass the telephone test 巴拉克奥巴马必须要通过“午夜凶铃”的考验 Illustration by KAL FIFTEEN months ago, at the height of the battle for the Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton unleashed her most powerful weapon, a telephone call. “It's 3 am and your children are safe and asleep,”a voice intoned. “But there's a phone in the White House and it's ringing. Something is happening in the world.”Barack Obama might be able to give a pretty speech. But was he “tested and ready to lead in a dangerous world”? 十五个月之前，民主党提名的斗争进行到白热化时，希拉里•克林顿使出了她的杀手锏-“午夜凶铃”。“凌晨 三点钟，当你的孩子们都安全地熟睡时”一个声音吟诵道“但是白宫里面的一个电话机正在铃声大作。世界 上又出事了。”奥巴马也许又要做一个漂亮的演说。但是他是否“经过考验并准备好来引领一个危险的世 界”？ The telephone has been ringing off the hook of late, as hostile governments tweak the new administration, to see what it is made of, and Republican politicians raise doubts about Mr Obama's national-defence credentials. On Memorial Day North Korea tested a nuclear bomb, following up with a few ballistic missiles for good measure. (The North Koreans were kind enough to give the administration a heads-up, in case the Mr Magoos of the intelligence establishment missed the fireworks.) On May 21st Dick Cheney delivered a televised speech accusing the administration of unravelling “some of the very policies that have kept our people safe since 9/11”. The day before that, the Iranians tested long-range missiles. 最近“午夜凶铃”总是响个不停，那些敌对政府想把美国新一届政府拧开看看里面是什么馅儿的，共和党人 则对奥巴马的国防体系表示怀疑。在阵亡将士纪念日，朝鲜试射了核武器，另外接连发射了弹道导弹。(朝 鲜还够贴心地发出预警，免得情报机构的脱线先生们错过了精彩表演)五月二十一日，迪克切尼作了电视演 说，责难政府没有阐明“一些自 911 以来保护人民安全的非常政策”。就在一天之前，伊朗试射了远程导弹。 All this has put Mrs Clinton's question from last February back at the heart of American politics. Conservative

websites are buzzing with comparisons between Mr Obama and Jimmy Carter. “Jimmy Carter took a little over three years to create the image of the US as a confused and soft power,”argues Bahukutumbi Raman on Forbes. com. “Obama is bidding fair to create that image even in his first year in office.”Some Democrats are also whispering that they are worried about the comparison. Mr Carter's weakness on foreign policy locked the Democratic Party out of the White House for over a decade. Mr Obama needs to prove that he is capable of doing the “daddy things”(defending the country) as well as the “mommy things”(appointing empathetic Supreme Court justices). 这一切都把克林顿夫人去年二月提出的问题放在美国政治核心。保守党的网页喧嚣着将奥巴马和吉米•卡特 进行对比。“吉米•卡特用了三年多一点的时间塑造了一幅美国作为一个困惑并软弱政府的形象。卡特在对 外政策上的软弱使民主党人被排斥在白宫外长达十多年。奥巴马需要证明他有能力来做“爸爸的事情”(保卫 国家)同时也能做好“妈妈的事情”(任命善解人意的最高法院大法官) How much truth is there that Mr Obama is flunking the telephone test? The problem with North Korea is that it is not a fair test of anything. It is easy to mock the finger-wagging from Susan Rice, Mr Obama's ambassador to the United Nations, about violations of international law, as the perfect example of pusillanimous liberalism. 说奥巴马先生没有通过“午夜凶铃”的考试又多少是真的呢？朝鲜问题无论如何都不是一个公平的测验。很 容易将奥巴马的联合国大使苏珊赖斯对朝鲜违背国际法的谴责嘲笑为是懦弱的自由主义的一个绝好的例 子。 But where would “toughness”get America? It would be hard to make the Hermit Kingdom any more isolated than it already is. Cutting off American aid would produce mass starvation without depriving the ruling elite of its luxuries. It might also risk destabilising a country that has many thousands of artillery pieces and rockets aimed at Seoul. George Bush tried toughness, including branding North Korea a member of the “axis of evil”, before returning to softer policies. 但是，强硬又会将美国引向何方呢？那将会使这个遁世王国更加孤立。切断美国的人道主义援助将会带来 大规模的饥荒，却不能剥落统治精英们的奢侈生活。这也会冒险让一个国家将成千上万门大炮和火箭炮对 准首尔。乔治布什尝试过强硬，包括将朝鲜命名为“邪恶轴心”，而之后却也转回更为怀柔的政策。 Mr Cheney's critique of Mr Obama's naivetéis a much fairer test than Kim Jong Il's fireworks. But in fact Mr Obama passes the Cheney test fairly well, providing a well-calibrated combination of toughness and strategic innovation. He may have made a lot of noise about talking to America's enemies. He may have abandoned Bush-era phrases such as “the war on terror”. But he has done little to unwind that war. 切尼对奥巴马幼稚的批评比起金正日的试射是一个更加公平的测验。但事实上奥巴马很好地通过了切尼的 测验，他提出了一个更为精准的结合强硬和战略革新的组合体。他可能已经对美国的敌人喋喋不休；他可 能已经放弃了布什时代的一些字句，诸如“反恐战争”，但是他却对结束那场战争所做甚少。 He has embraced Mr Bush's policy of gradually withdrawing combat troops from Iraq. He has increased the number of troops in Afghanistan by around 20,000. He has also stepped up drone attacks on what the American army calls the “Af-Pak”region. Far from abandoning the war on terror, Mr Obama is shifting its central front from Iraq to Afghanistan, and doing what he can to sell it better. That hardly counts as naive doveishness.

他接受了布什逐步从伊拉克撤出野战部队的政策。他已经把在阿富汗的部队增加到 20000 人。他也派遣无 人侦察机去那些被美国军队称之为“Af-Park”的地区。奥巴马远远不是放弃了反恐战争，而是将战争的中心 前线从伊拉克转到阿富汗，并且做那些他能够做的更好的事情。这很难算所“天真的鸽派” Mr Cheney concentrated his heaviest rhetorical fire on Mr Obama's opposition to “enhanced interrogation”. But such opposition is hardly a sign of wimpishness. Large numbers of military and former military officers, including David Petraeus, the head of Central Command, and John McCain, a man who was brutally tortured by the North Vietnamese, have come out strongly against practices such as waterboarding, for both practical and moral reasons. The information that such techniques produce is often tainted, and the damage that they do to America's image around the world is immense. 切尼将他的唇枪舌剑集中在奥巴马反对“酷刑”上。但这种反对不是懦弱的标志。很多军方官员和前军方官 员，包括中央司令部长官戴维•彼得雷乌斯和曾经被越南酷刑折磨过的约翰•麦凯恩，都对诸如水刑之类的 酷刑提出过强烈的反对。严刑逼供出来的信息经常是有缺陷的，而且他们对美国在全世界形象的破坏是巨 大的。 Living with Mr Kim 与金共舞 Still, it would be wrong to imply that Mr Obama has passed the telephone test with flying colours. The president is paying the price for raising expectations about the power of diplomacy to absurd heights. So far Mr Obama's charm offensive has produced plenty of warm words but few practical concessions. The Europeans have refused to stimulate their economies as much as America would like, or to send a significant number of troops to Afghanistan. Iran has become even noisier about its desire to go on enriching uranium. Mr Obama is now finding out, as the Bush administration did before him, that some regimes are not susceptible to American policies, hard or soft, wise or dumb. 但这也不意味着奥巴马通过了“午夜凶铃”的考验并大获全胜。总统正在为将对外交的期望值提升到一个荒 谬的高度而买单。截至目前，奥巴马的魅力攻势产生出了大量的温暖话语，但是很少的实际让步。欧洲拒 绝向美国一样刺激他们的经济，也不愿意向阿富汗派出大量军队。伊拉克甚至闹着渴望要继续他们的铀浓 缩。奥巴马现在发现，正如之前的布什政府一样，一些政权不那么容易受美国政策的影响，无论是强硬的， 还是怀柔的，英明的或者愚蠢的。 Mr Obama is also guilty of doing too little to prepare for life with North Korea. The administration has paid remarkably little attention to the country. Mr Obama's special representative for North Korean policy has retained his job as a university administrator. The top East Asia specialist at the State Department has still not been confirmed, though that has more to do with the Senate's sloth than with Mr Obama's negligence. 奥巴马对没有为与朝鲜共存的生活做好准备而心虚。政府对这个国家的关注明显太少了。奥巴马朝鲜政策 的特别代表还在一所大学工作。国务院的东亚问题专家到现在也还没有确定，尽管比起奥巴马的疏忽，这 些更多的是由于参议院的懒惰引起的。 The administration has pulled off a short-term coup by shifting public attention from North Korea to the Supreme Court, at least for a while. But Mr Kim and his kind will not disappear. Mr Obama needs to fill the gaps in his

administration as quickly as possible. He also needs to lower expectations about what can be achieved by replacing one American president with another. The 3 am call is still the one that can make or break a presidency. 政府已经采取一个短期的妙计将公众的注意力从朝鲜转移到最高法院，至少是暂时地。但是金正日和他那 些妙主意并没有消失。奥巴马需要尽快填补政府的缺口。他也得降低对更换一个美国总统能够带来什么成 就的期待。午夜 3 点的电话铃仍然能够成就或者毁掉一个总统。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Unlocking the cloud 解开“云锁” Computing Unlocking the cloud 解开“云锁” May 28th 2009 From The Economist print edition Open-source software has won the argument. Now a new threat to openness looms 开源软件已初战告捷，如今又面临新的威胁 “FIRST they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”Mahatma Gandhi probably never said these words, despite claims to the contrary, but they perfectly describe the progress of open-source software over the past 15 years or so. Such software, the underlying recipe for which is created by volunteers and distributed free online, was initially dismissed as the plaything of nerdy hobbyists. Big software firms derided the idea that anyone would put their trust in free software written by mysterious online collectives. Was it really secure? Whom would you call if it went wrong? “起初他们忽视你，然后他们取笑你、打压你，最后你赢得了胜利！”圣雄甘地很可能从没讲过这句话，尽 管有人说他讲过，然而不管怎样，这句话完全阐明了过去 15 年来开源软件的发展历程。开源软件，一开始 被视作是编程发烧友的玩物，其基本方法是由志愿者创作并在网上免费发布。大软件公司对这种想法嗤之 以鼻，认为没人会相信诡异的网上集体写出的免费软件。软件有安全保障吗？如果运行错误，谁来负责？

http://zh. wikipedia. org/wiki/% E5%9C% A3% E9%9B%84% E7%94%98% E5%9C% B0 At the time, selling software to large companies was sometimes likened to drug dealing, because once a firm installed a piece of software, it had to pay a stream of licence fees for upgrades, security patches and technical support. Switching to a rival product was difficult and expensive. But with open-source software there was much less of a lock-in. There are no licence fees, and the file formats and data structures are open. Open-source software gained ground during the dotcom boom and even more so afterwards, as a way to cut costs. 当时，销售软件给大公司有时很像是在进行毒品交易，因为一旦公司安装了某个软件，该公司就会支付一 系列的许可费用来升级软件，打补丁以及技术维护等。更换一种新软件就会带来诸多麻烦，并且费用昂贵。 而使用开源软件，这一系列的繁琐过程就会简单得多。不用支付许可费，文件格式和数据结构都是开放的。 由于可以减少开支，开源软件在互联网繁荣时期，甚至是在后来的发展中取得了一席之地。 Microsoft, the world's biggest software company, went from laughing at the idea to fighting it, giving warning that there might be legal risks associated with using open-source software and even calling it a “cancer”that threatened to harm the industry. Yet the popularity of open-source programs such as the Linux operating system continued to grow. The fact that Google, the industry's new giant, sits on a foundation of open-source code buried the idea that it was not powerful or reliable enough for heavy-duty use. One by one the industry's giants embraced open source. Even Microsoft admits that drawing on the expertise of internet users to scrutinise and improve software has its merits, at least in some cases. 世界上最大的软件公司微软，起先是嘲讽，后来是打压。微软告诫人们使用开源软件可能会承担法律风险， 甚至认为开源软件是威胁整个行业的一颗恶性肿瘤。尽管如此，使用开源软件的趋势却有增无减，比如： Linux 操作系统的流行。而行业新巨头谷歌基于开源代码的架构这一事实，则打破了开源软件不够强大，不 能超负荷运作的传言。随之，行业巨头们一个接一个的开始拥护开源软件。现在，就连微软集团也不得不 承认利用网络用户的专业知识，对软件进行核查并进行改进，至少在某些方面是有好处的。 The argument has been won. It is now generally accepted that the future will involve a blend of both proprietary and open-source software. Traditional software companies have opened up some of their products, and many open-source companies have adopted a hybrid model in which they give away a basic version of their product and make money by selling proprietary add-ons (see article). The rise of software based on open, internet-based standards means worries about lock-in have become much less of a problem. 开源软件取得了胜利。如今人们普遍认为，未来的软件将是私有和开源两种方式的结合体。传统的软件公 司将会开放部分源代码，而许多开源软件公司也会采取一种混合模式：即在免费开放其产品最初的版本的 同时，通过销售专业的附加服务赚钱。软件行业只有在以网络为基础，开源的标准下，才能蒸蒸日上。这 也表明没有必要再为软件支付一系列的升级费用而忧心忡忡。 Clouding the picture 云锁 But now there is the danger of a new form of lock-in. “Cloud computing”-the delivery of computer services from vast warehouses of shared machines-enables companies and individuals to cut costs by handing over the running of their e-mail, customer databases or accounting software to someone else, and then accessing it over the internet.

There are many advantages to this approach for both customers (lower cost, less complexity) and service providers (economies of scale). But customers risk losing control once again, in particular over their data, as they migrate into the cloud. Moving from one service provider to another could be even more difficult than switching between software packages in the old days. For a foretaste of this problem, try moving your MySpace profile to Facebook without manually retyping everything. 但如今又出现了一种新的“连环套”。 “云计算”-运用大型服务器集群来提供信息传递服务-通过向用户提供 电子邮件，客户数据库或者财务软件，用户从网上访问资源的方式，可以使企业和个人降低成本。这种方 式有很多优点：对于用户而言(减少了成本，操作简单易行)；对于服务商而言(扩大了服务的经济体范围)。 然而一旦用户将他们的数据迁移到“云”上，他们将再一次面临失去控制的危险，尤其是对数据的控制。跟 过去跳转于不同软件包之间相比，如今要更换不同服务供应商，难度可能会更大。你可以先体验一下这种 困难，在不重新输入任何信息的前提下，试着将 MySpace 中的个人信息转移到 Facebook 中去。 The obvious answer is to establish agreed standards for moving data between clouds. An industry effort to this effect kicked off in March. But cloud computing is still in its infancy, and setting standards too early could hamper innovation. So buyers of cloud-computing services must take account of the dangers of lock-in, and favour service providers who allow them to move data in and out of their systems without too much hassle. This will push providers to compete on openness from the outset-and ensure that the lessons from the success of open-source software are not lost in the clouds. 直接的解决办法就是建立一套可以在不同“云”之间转移数据的统一标准。今年三月，已有人为此开始努力。 但由于云计算的发展还处于初级阶段，标准设立过早会阻碍创新。因此，购买云计算服务的用户必须警惕 陷入连环套的风险，同时支持那些为他们提供了较便捷的服务来转移数据的供应商。这就会促使供应商们 从一开始为提供开源而进行较量-并且确保开源软件成功的案例不至于被乌云所覆盖。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Still in the soup 犹陷困境 Poland's legacy of 1989 波兰的 1989 年遗产 Still in the soup 犹陷困境 May 28th 2009 | WARSAW From The Economist print edition Political squabbles 20 years after the collapse of communism 共产主义崩溃二十年后的政治争论 IN THE eyes of Poles, their country shattered communist rule in Europe, thus bringing down the Berlin Wall and freeing the nations of the Soviet empire. In Poland's telling, the heroes of the tale were the Polish pope, John Paul

II, and the Solidarity trade union led by Lech Walesa, who founded the movement after a shipyard strike in Gdansk in 1980. Their influence, the story runs, forced the communist regime to concede nearly-free elections in June 1989. Poles voted overwhelmingly for non-communist candidates, inspiring other countries to cast off Soviet rule. 在波兰人看来，他们的国家打破了共产党在欧洲的统治，因此让柏林墙倒塌，令苏维埃帝国内的各国得以 解放。在波兰的故事中，这段传奇的主角是波兰籍教皇约翰•保罗二世，以及列赫•瓦文萨于 1980 年格但斯 克船厂罢工事件之后创立并加以领导的团结工会；故事发展下去，是他们的影响力迫使共产党政权勉强同 意了 1989 年 6 月近乎自由的选举，波兰人用压倒性的选票对非共产党候选人加以支持，激发了其它国家挣 脱苏维埃的统治。 Many might quibble over the details of that account, but few would dispute the Poles' vital role in freeing Europe from totalitarian rule. Elmar Brok, a veteran German member of the European Parliament, says events in Poland were “fundamental”in bringing down the Berlin Wall. But two decades later, the message of Polish courage and success is mixed with a different one, of squabbles and economic difficulty. And the resulting rows are threatening to upset celebrations for the anniversary of the 1989 election. 许多人可能会对这一叙述的细枝末节有所争议；但很少有人会对波兰人在将欧洲从极权主义统治下解放出 来的过程中所扮演的至关重要的角色加以质疑。一位欧洲议会的德国籍资深议员艾玛•布洛克就指出，波兰 发生的事件对推倒柏林墙有“基础性”的作用。但二十年过去后，关于波兰的勇气与成功的信息被另一种不 同的信息所混杂，后者包括争论与经济困难。而且，随之而来的争吵正在危及为 1989 年选举二十周年纪念 而开展的庆祝活动。 The prime minister, Donald Tusk, himself from Gdansk, had wanted to invite leaders of neighbouring countries to a big party there. But he changed his mind after a protest by shipyard workers, during a meeting in Warsaw in April of Mr Tusk's centre-right European allies, turned violent. Police responded with tear-gas and batons. The workers threatened to spoil the party in Gdansk, so Mr Tusk moved it to Poland's southern university city, Cracow. He blames the opposition for using the union rally to make the government look bad. 波兰总理唐纳德•图斯克(他本人就来自格但斯克)曾希望邀请邻国的领导人来波兰参加大型聚会。但在四月， 图斯克的中右翼欧洲盟友在华沙举行会议时，船厂工人的抗议活动演化为暴力事件，这一情况令图斯克改 变了主意。当时，警察用催泪弹和警棍回击；而这些工人则威胁会破坏在格但斯克举行的聚会，因此图斯 克将聚会地点改在了波兰南部的大学城克拉科夫。他谴责反对党利用这次工会集会令政府出丑。 Communist rulers mismanaged but also pampered Poland's three Baltic shipyards. Since 1989 the shipyards have failed to restructure and found it hard to compete. The Gdansk yard, indebted and ill-run, was sold in 2007 to ISD, a Ukrainian investor. But rows with the European Commission over state aid and restructuring plans make its future uncertain. The other two Polish yards have just been sold to a Caribbean-registered company, on unknown terms. Many shipyard workers have already lost their jobs. Others see unemployment looming. Union leaders have largely escaped the blame, though their inflexibility and self-importance is part of the reason for their members' plight.

共产党统治者虽然对波兰的三座波罗的海造船厂管理失当，但却对它们多有迁就。而 1989 年之后，这些船 厂未能重建并且发现难以(与他人)竞争。格但斯克船厂负债累累，经营不善，于 2007 年被乌克兰投资者顿 巴斯工业联盟(ISD.收购；但与欧盟委员会就国家补助和重建计划的争吵使得其前景并不明朗。另两家波兰 船厂则刚被卖给一家在加勒比地区注册的公司，交易条件不明。许多船厂工人已经失业，另一些人的饭碗 也摇摇欲坠。工会领导人基本上未受到指责，尽管他们的顽固与自负正是导致其成员受此痛苦的部分原因。 Many Poles might have hoped that the importance of the anniversary would transcend such internal disputes. But the unity of 20 years ago is gone. Both Mr Tusk's party and its main rival claim to have inherited Solidarity's moral legacy. Mr Walesa, whose election to the presidency epitomised Poland's transition to democracy, has long since left the political mainstream. His views on the European Union have caused confusion. He has addressed rallies of Libertas, a Eurosceptic party that opposes the Lisbon treaty, only to declare that he supports the treaty. 许多波兰人可能曾希望二十周年纪念的重要意义能压倒此类国内争端，但 20 年前的团结一致已经不复存 在。图斯克的党派与其主要竞争者都声称继承了团结工会的道德遗产。瓦文萨成为总统的那次选举正是波 兰向着民主制度转型的典型缩影，但他早已离开政界的主流；瓦文萨关于欧盟的观点已经导致了困惑，他 曾向对欧盟持质疑态度并反对里斯本条约的自由党的集会发表演讲，但却仅仅宣布自己支持这一条约。 Mr Walesa once said that imposing communism on Poland was like turning an aquarium into fish soup, and that the transition to democratic rule involved the rather harder task of turning fish soup into an aquarium. Although Poland's achievements then and since have been hugely impressive, the water is still cloudy. 瓦文萨曾说过，将共产主义强加于波兰，就好比将一缸鱼煮成鱼汤，而向民主制统治的转型则包含将这锅 汤再变回一缸鱼这样一个更加艰巨的任务。尽管波兰当年与之后的成就令人印象非常深刻，但如今(缸内的) 水却依然混浊。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Bauxite bashers 铝土矿盛怒者 Vietnam and China 越南和中国 Bauxite bashers 铝土矿盛怒者(1) Apr 23rd 2009 From The Economist print edition The government chooses economic growth over xenophobia and greenery 政府不要环保，不顾仇外，只要经济增长。

General Giap fights another battle 武元甲将军的新一战 IN A one-party state where people are routinely jailed for criticising government policy, it is rare for all but the most brave or foolhardy to speak out. But a government plan to allow a Chinese company to start mining some of the massive reserves of bauxite lying beneath Vietnam's verdant Central Highlands has provoked an unprecedented backlash from an unlikely assortment of critics. They include a nonagenarian war-hero, Vo Nguyen Giap, a dissident monk, Thich Quang Do, and a slew of leading scientists and environmental campaigners. 在一党制国家，人们常因批评政府政策而入狱，人民谨慎微言，只有最勇敢或最鲁莽的人才会大声疾呼(2)。 但是此次越南政府计划让中国企业开采位于越南树木繁茂的中部高地下大规模储量的铝土矿，却导致前所 未有的反弹，引发来自社会各界的批评。其中包括九十多岁的战争英雄 Vo Nguyen Giap,持不同意见的著名 僧侣 Thich Quang Do,还有诸多著名科学家和环保人士。 Vietnam is blessed with the world's third-largest reserves of bauxite, the raw material for aluminium, and the communist government is keen to reap the benefits. Under a plan that the prime minister, Nguyen Tan Dung, has called “a major policy of the party and the state”, the government is seeking to attract $15 billion or more of investment to develop bauxite mining and aluminium refining projects by 2025. It has already signed a contract with a subsidiary of Chinalco, a state-owned Chinese mining group, to build one mine and agreed with Alcoa, an American aluminium giant, to carry out a feasibility study for another. 越南得天独厚地拥有世界第三大铝土矿(其原材料是铝)资源，而共产党政府一直热衷于用他们谋利。在一 个被总理 Nguyen Tan Dung 称为“党和国家的重大决策”的计划中，越南政府将在 2025 年前吸引 150 亿美元 甚至更多的资金投资开发铝土矿矿井及铝冶炼项目。它己与中国国有矿业集团中铝公司一家下属子公司签 约，同意中方建立一个矿井。同时，它愿意与美国铝业巨头美国铝公司进行另一项可行性研究。 Critics say the arrival of large-scale bauxite mining in a region that currently grows coffee and other crops could cause irreparable damage to the environment and displace the ethnic-minority groups who inhabit the Central Highlands. Bauxite is usually extracted through open-cast mines, which leave vast scars on the landscape. The process by which it is refined also produces a toxic “red sludge”, which can cause serious pollution if it washes into streams and rivers.

评论家指出在种植咖啡和其他作物的当地大规模地开采铝土矿将导致无法挽回的环境破坏，也会迫使中部 高地居住的少数民族群体移居。铝土矿通常在露天矿井下开采，这将使得当地景观疤痕累累。铝矿冶炼过 程会产生一种有毒的“红色污泥”，如果它们被冲洗进河流时会带来严重污染。 As if that were not enough, the involvement of a Chinese company in such a controversial project has rekindled latent anti-Chinese sentiment in Vietnam, which was colonised by its larger neighbour for 1,000 years and fought a short but bloody war against it in 1979. Thich Quang Do, the leader of the outlawed Unified Buddhist Church, claims that Vietnam is “under threat of invasion”because “whole villages of Chinese workers have mushroomed on the plateau, and 10,000 Chinese settlers are expected in the coming year.”His comments have been echoed by Vietnam's enthusiastic army of bloggers, and an anti-bauxite-mining group set up on Facebook, a popular social-networking website, has attracted nearly 700 members. Chinese bloggers are not, it seems, the only ones to resort to inflamed xenophobia. And though much of the opposition is no doubt driven by that feeling, there are also genuine concerns about the lousy environmental records of many Chinese mining companies. 如果这些还不够严重，那么我们还需重视的是：(3)此次中方公司参与这极具争议的项目己使得越南反华情 绪死灰复燃。越南曾被他的大个子邻居殖民统治了 1000 年，且在 1979 年发生过短暂但血腥的对华战争。 被取缔的统一佛教会领导人 Thich Quang Do 声称越南“处于入侵的威胁下”，因为“在整个越南地区，中国农 民工像杂草一样疯长，预计明年还将有 10，000 农民工来此定居。”他的评论在越南热情的军队博客中受到 追捧，在热门社区网络 Facebook 上，一个名为反对铝土矿开采的社区成立，吸引了近 700 位成员。看起来 中方博客并不是唯一一个诉诸激动的排外情绪的地方(4)。虽然有不少反对者是由这种情绪驱动的，但也有 许多人对中国开采公司极端差劲的环境表现表示担忧。 Whatever the motive, however, the Vietnamese government is nervous about public criticism of China. It recently banned a bi-weekly newspaper called Du lich (Tourism) for three months for running a series of articles about territorial disputes between the two countries. The explanation is that China is Vietnam's biggest trading partner. Vietnam also runs a massive trade deficit with its neighbour and has been pushing China's government to invest more in the country to offset the deficit. With foreign direct investment 40% lower in the first quarter of 2009 than it was a year before-and most rich nations short of cash-Vietnam needs Chinese money now more than ever. 不管是何种动机，然而，越南政府对公开批评中国感到紧张不安。最近它刚禁止半月刊新闻报纸 Du lich (旅 游)发行三个月，因为该报上连载中越两国领土争端的系列文章。可能的解释是中方是越南最大的贸易伙伴。 越南对中国有巨额的贸易赤字，且一直在推动中国政府作出更大的投资，以抵消本国的赤字。2009 年第一 季度国外直接投资额比去年同期下降 40%-大部分大国缺乏现金-越南此时比以往任何时候更需要中国的资 金。 Much to the chagrin of the anti-China lobby, Mr Dung, the prime minister, spent a week this month touring China, trying to drum up investment and pledging to make it easier for Chinese companies to operate in his country. Following a meeting with China's prime minister, Wen Jiabao, Mr Dung said that the two countries would strive to expand bilateral trade from $20 billion in 2008 to $25 billion by 2010 and try to tackle the trade imbalance.

相比于国内恼人的反华游说(5)，越南总理 Mr Dung 在本月访问中国，为期一周。他试图游说增加投资以及 向中方承诺会使中国公司在越南的运作顺利。在与中国总理温国保会面后，Mr Dung 表示两国将争取使双 边贸易由 2008 年的 200 亿美元在 2010 年前增长到 250 亿，并努力解决贸易不平衡问题。 Hoang Trung Hai, a deputy prime minister, recently told a conference of scientists concerned about environmental damage that Vietnam will not pursue the bauxite mining plan “at any cost”. But the reality is that in straitened economic times, beggars cannot be choosers. 副总理 Hoang Trung Hai 最近召开科学家们担心的环境污染问题会议，表明越南政府不会“不惜一切代价” 实施铝土矿开采计划。但是，现实是：在经济困境时代，穷光蛋是没有选择的。 (1)：bashers 是一个很复杂的词，中文很难找到对应词，其英语解释如下：basher combines with nouns to form nouns referring to someone who is physically violent towards a particular type of person, or who is unfairly critical of a particular type of person.这里译为盛怒只是一个方面。 (2)：这句译得不是很好，而我把握不到，ECO 是想说很少有人(但是还有两种人：勇敢或鲁莽的人)能敢于 出言批评政府，还是根本就没人。 (3)：这里似乎省略某些句子，我自作主张加上。 (4)：这句自己也有很大疑问。似乎想表明中方博客上很多人发表反华言论，而现在不仅是中方有，越南军 队博客上也有。 (5)：much to 这词查不到用法，句意也不是很理解。 一点看法：ECO 也是有观点和立场的，特别是政治方面。译过两篇关于中国的，都是“丑化”中国。所以它 的公正，中立也是有限的。 我想，任何一个媒体，都是有立场的，这是无可厚非的。 这是讲到一点：As if that were not enough, the involvement of a Chinese company in such a controversial project has rekindled latent anti-Chinese sentiment in Vietnam, which was colonised by its larger neighbour for 1,000 years and fought a short but bloody war against it in 1979. 似乎是说 1979 年越南发生反华战争，而我们课本上是说中国援助越南。… … 郭是郭非呢？ 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Dismal science 沉闷的科学 Paul Krugman's London lectures 保罗克鲁格曼伦敦演讲 Dismal science 沉闷的科学(注 1) Jun 11th 2009 From The Economist print edition The Nobel laureate speaks on the crisis in the economy and in economics

诺贝尔奖得主就经济危机和经济学问题发表演讲 THE London School of Economics was once so popular among young American scholars that British students used to joke that LSE stood for “Let's See Europe”. A distinguished sightseer, Paul Krugman, returned to the LSE on June 8th to give the annual Lionel Robbins memorial lectures. Mr Krugman, who gave the Robbins lectures 21 years ago, tried to answer two big questions in the course of his three talks. Why did economists not foresee calamity? And how will the world economy climb out of recession? 伦敦经济学院曾经在美国青年学者中是如此的受欢迎，以至于英国学生曾笑称其为欧洲的象征。六月八日， 令人尊敬的客人-保罗克鲁格曼先生，回到伦敦经济学院为一年一度的莱昂内尔罗宾斯纪念典礼做演将。克 鲁格曼先生曾在二十一年前的罗宾斯纪念典礼上发表过演说，在当时的三场演讲中，他试图解说两大问题， 即“为什么经济学家不对灾难进行预测？”和“世界经济如何走出衰退？” The immediate cause of the crisis, “the mother of all global housing bubbles”, was spotted by many economists. That house prices had risen too far was obvious, even if policymakers had seemed less sure. The surprise was that the bursting of the bubble would be so damaging. “I had no idea it would end so badly,”said Mr Krugman. 许多经济学家认为，引发危机的的直接原因是“全球房地产泡沫之母”。很明显，住房价格已经涨得太高了， 虽然决策者们对此看上去并不是很肯定。令人吃惊的是泡沫的破灭竟然会具有如此破坏性。“我不曾想到它 会产生如此糟糕的结果，”克鲁格曼先生说。 One big blind spot was the financial system. The mistake was to think “a bank had to look like something Jimmy Stewart could run”, with rows of tellers taking deposits in a marble-fronted building. In fact a bank is anything that uses short-term borrowing to finance long-term assets that are hard to sell at a push. The shadow banking system was as important to the economy as the ordinary kind, but was far more vulnerable. Its collapse was the modern re-run of the bank failures of the 1930 s, said Mr Krugman. 金融系统是一个大盲点。人们所犯的错误是认为“银行看上去就像是吉米·史都华(注 2)能够掌控一样”，出纳 员在大理石建筑中排队领取保证金。(注 3)而事实上银行是任何通过短期借款来进行长期融资的机构，很难 一下子卖出所有金融品。影子银行体系对于经济来说与普通商业银行体系同样重要，但却脆弱的多。这一 体系的崩溃其实是上世纪三十年代中的银行倒闭在现代的重演罢了，克鲁格曼先生说。 The excess borrowing that did for shadow banks threatens consumers, too. They are scrambling to save more as house prices plunge. Their mortgage debts loom larger because of vanishing inflation. This urge to shore up wealth is self-defeating in aggregate, as it curbs spending and incomes. It also renders conventional monetary policy impotent, as the interest rate that prevents too much saving is below zero. 影子银行(注 4)过度借款也造成了消费恐慌。由于房价的暴跌，消费者们争着将更多的钱放进银行。通货膨 胀的消失使他们的抵押债务所面临的形势变得相当严峻。这种强烈的财富保值意识宏观加总后反而弄巧成 拙，因为这抑制了支出和收入。它也使得传统的货币政策变得无能为力，因为为了阻止过多的储蓄，利率 已经为负了。 That creates a role for fiscal policy. If zero interest rates cannot get consumers to spend, then governments must spend instead. That remedy comes from economics so the discipline is not without merit. The trouble is, “the analysis we're using is decades old”. It dates back to Keynes, one of the few economists whose reputation has been

burnished by the crisis. (Another is Hyman Minsky, whose main insight was that stability leads to too much debt, and then to collapse.) Most work in macroeconomics in the past 30 years has been useless at best and harmful at worst, said Mr Krugman. 这创造了一个财政政策的新作用。如果零利率不能刺激消费，那么政府就必须代为支出。这个补救措施源 自经济学研究，因此不是毫无价值的。但问题是“我们所使用的这种经济学分析已经有几十年的历史了”。 这可以追溯到凯恩斯，他是为数不多的因危机而成名的经济学家中的一位。(另一位是海曼明斯基，他的主 要观点是稳定导致过多债务从而引发崩溃。)宏观经济学在近 30 年中的多数研究说得好听点是毫无用处的， 说的难听点甚至是有害的，克鲁格曼先生如是说。 As for the economy, the road back to health will be long and painful. The big lesson from past bubbles is that recovery is export-led, which is not helpful “unless we can find another planet to export to”. Otherwise, recovery will have to wait for savings to be rebuilt, and that will not happen quickly. Higher inflation than before the crisis might help, he said. 至于经济，恢复健康的道路将是漫长而又痛苦的。从过去的泡沫危机中得到的启示是由出口带动经济复苏 是无益的，“除非我们能找到另一个星球并对其进行出口”。否则，想要经济复苏就不得不等待储蓄的重建， 而那不是短时间内能够完成的。比危机发生前更高的通胀也许有帮助，他说。 - 注释： 1.经济学常常被称为“沉闷的科学”，因为经济学家经常带来坏消息。经济学不那么讨人喜欢，认真的经济学 家常常带来泼冷水似的意见。他们会指出一个表面上看来很吸引人的项目，很可能结局并不那么美妙。 2.吉米·史都华：即詹姆斯·史都华(James Stewart)，好莱坞影星，主演过《费城故事》、《后窗》、《迷魂 记》、《桃色血案》等名片。 3.关于这句话，我网上查了很多资料，克鲁格曼所指的应该是史都华所演的《风云人物》中的场景，这部 片子我现在在下，看过之后应该就可以理解了。 4.所谓影子银行系统，就是一群非银行机构，但是它们又确实在发挥着一整套银行的功能。比如它们将房 地产贷款加工成有价证券，交易到资本市场，房地产业传统上由银行系统承担的融资功能逐渐被投资所替 代，属于银行的证券化活动。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Scuttlebutt 谣言 Silvio Berlusconi's scandal 西尔维奥•贝卢斯科尼的丑闻 Scuttlebutt 谣言 Jun 4th 2009 | ROME

From The Economist print edition A model and a prime minister 模特和总理 IT IS not only in Britain that scandal may affect the European election. In Italy claims surrounding the prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, and an 18-year-old aspiring model and actress, Noemi Letizia, have begun to trouble voters. The insinuation at its root has not been proved. But in his efforts to refute it, Mr Berlusconi has raised bigger questions about his conduct. 不仅是在英国丑闻会影响到欧洲选举。在意大利围绕总理贝卢斯科尼和 18 岁内衣模特兼演员，诺埃米•莱 蒂齐亚，的言论开始使选举者感到困扰。这些暗示的根源并没有被证实。但是在他努力地辩驳下，贝卢斯 科尼在品行方面产生了更大的问题。 The latest concerns the prime minister's use of facilities paid for by the taxpayer. On May 30 th, after a complaint by Mr Berlusconi that his privacy and that of his guests had been invaded, prosecutors in Rome impounded a collection of photographs taken outside his Sardinian villa during three parties last year, one of them attended by Ms Letizia. Mr Berlusconi's lawyer said that among other things they showed a former Czech prime minister, Mirek Topolanek, naked by a swimming pool. 人们最新关注的是总理用纳税人的钱支付设施费用。五月三十日，当贝卢斯科尼抱怨他的隐私和他的客人 遭受到侵扰后，罗马的检查官下令没收了一系列去年在他位于撒丁岛的别墅外举行三个(裸体)派对时拍摄 的照片，其中一张涉及了莱蒂齐亚。贝卢斯科尼的律师声称在其他照片中还出现了捷克前总理，米雷克• 托波拉内克，在游泳池中一丝不挂。 But the prosecutors are now thinking of bringing charges against Mr Berlusconi for misuse of public funds, as the photographs show a dancer and his personal minstrel, a singer-songwriter named Mariano Apicella, leaving his official aircraft. The prime minister's office denies that he has broken any rules, which were changed to allow unofficial passengers after Mr Berlusconi regained the job last year. 但现在那些检察官正考虑指控贝卢斯科尼滥用公共基金，因为照片显示一个舞蹈演员和他的私人歌手，一 个名为马里亚诺•阿皮塞拉的创作型歌手，乘坐他的官方直升飞机离开。但总理办公室否认他破坏了任何规 则，去年贝卢斯科尼重新执政时已经修改规则，允许搭载非官方乘客。 The scandal began in early May when Mr Berlusconi's wife, Veronica Lario, announced that she was divorcing him, adding that she could no longer stay with a man who “consorts with minors”. The prime minister was said to have attended Ms Letizia's 18th birthday party with an expensive present. Suspicions about their relationship grew when Mr Berlusconi's account began to leak. He said he had known Ms Letizia's father for years and dropped by when a gap arose in his schedule. But Mr Letizia seems never to have done the job that the prime minister claimed brought them together. And his sister-in-law said the family had known for months that Mr Berlusconi would be there. 这桩丑闻开始于五月初，当贝卢斯科尼的妻子韦罗妮卡•拉里奥宣称她要与他离婚，并且她无法再忍受与一 个“与未成年人交往”的男人待在一起。据说这位总理带着昂贵的礼物出席了莱蒂齐亚 18 岁的生日派对。当

贝卢斯科尼的账户开始泄露时人们开始怀疑他们的关系。他说他认识莱蒂齐亚的父亲很多年，所以在他的 时间表里减少了创立关系的时间。但是莱蒂齐亚好像从未做过首相声称使他们相遇的工作。而且他的嫂子 说家里人几个月前已经知道贝卢斯科尼将出现在那儿。 So far no evidence has been produced to show that his relationship with Ms Letizia is or was improper. Her former boyfriend said the prime minister's attitude to her was paternal. At the outset Mr Berlusconi promised a statement to parliament. Not the least of the mysteries in the affair is why he has so far failed to keep that promise. 迄今为止并无证据证明他与莱蒂齐亚的关系有什么不妥。她的前男友说总理对她的态度只是像父亲一样的。 起初贝卢斯科尼向国保证会给出一个说法。这件事中最大的谜团就是为什么至今他都无法信守这一承诺。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Bash for help 猛击求生 Mining safety 矿业安全 Bash for help 猛击求生 Apr 2nd 2009 From The Economist print edition A new way to find trapped miners 发现被困矿工的新方法 HIGH technology is not always needed to solve a problem. Indeed, a proposed new system for finding miners trapped by an underground collapse is activated simply by hammering on an iron plate with a sledgehammer. Rescuers can be not only alerted by the banging but also guided precisely to the scene. 解决难题并不都需借助于高科技。一套只需用长柄锤击打铁板就能起作用的新设 备，正被用于发现塌方事故中的被困矿工。救援者不仅能收到敲击示警声，还能 被准确引导至事发现场。 Sensitive listening equipment has long been used to try to hear people trapped underground. It is possible to detect seismic waves created by miners hitting rocks, say, but it can be difficult to distinguish these from other underground noises. 长期以来，人们都是用敏感的监听仪器探听被困地下的幸存者，以期能探测到矿 工敲击岩石或说话时产生的震波，但这种方法很难将这些震波与其它地下杂音区 分开来。 Now a more accurate method has been found. It involves bolting iron plates to the walls of tunnels at regular intervals and placing sledgehammers nearby. The idea is

that, in the event of a collapse, survivors able to reach one of the plates would bash it to create vibrations that are detected by a string of geophones, standard devices used to measure seismic activity, placed on the surface along the line of the mine. 现在诞生了一种更精确的方法。把铁板以一定间距焊接在隧道的墙壁上，并在附 近放置铁锤。遭遇塌方事故时，幸存者可以逃到任一铁板处猛击铁板，使地震探 测仪组能探测到由此产生的振动，这些探测仪是探测振动的标准设备，常沿着矿 脉放置在地层表面。 Gerard Schuster and his colleagues at the University of Utah first tested the idea in a tunnel that carries pipes three metres below the university campus. After positioning the plates, the researchers listened to the sound that each one made on being struck. Every sound was unique, in part because of small variations in the geology surrounding the plates. They used a computer monitoring the string of geophones to analyse the signals to see if they contained the seismic fingerprint of any of the underground plates. The system could detect if a plate was being hammered and which one, thus indicating the location of the person hitting it. 杰拉德.舒斯特和他犹他大学的同事们，在大学校园地下三米安置水管的隧道里 进行了首次实验。在固定好了铁板后，研究者们听到了每块铁板各自被敲击而发 出的声音。因为铁板周围的地理构造差异，使得每一个声音听起来都是独一无二 的。为了分析信号，他们用计算机监测了这些地震仪组，看是否地下的每个铁板 都包含着独特的震动特征。这套系统既可以探测铁板的敲击声，又能分辨出具体 被击打的铁板，从而指示敲击者所处位置。 The geophysicists went on to conduct a second test in an abandoned copper mine in Arizona, using 25 iron plates spaced at various intervals in tunnels up to 45 metres below ground. This also proved to be accurate. Dr Schuster says they are now looking for a working mine with tunnels one kilometre deep to conduct more experiments. Computer simulations suggest the distress signal should still be capable of being detected. They report their work in Leading Edge, a journal of the Society of Exploration Geophysicists. 在亚利桑州的一个废弃铜矿里，地球物理学家们进行了第二次实验，他们将 25 块铁板以不同的间距安置在离地 45 米深的隧道中。实验结果仍然准确。据舒斯 特博士介绍，他们正在寻找具有 1000 米深隧道的正在开采中的矿山，以便进行 更多实验。在计算机仿真环境中，这种遇险信号仍旧能够被探测到。他们将研究 成果提交到勘探地球物理学家协会的《前沿》杂志上。 The system could be used to send coded messages, perhaps in Morse, to the surface. Two-way communication might also be possible if the stations were equipped with

seismic sensors and laptop computers. But for now, its potential as a cheap alert and location system is what interests the researchers. They estimate that it could cost about $100,000 to equip a mine with 100 emergency stations. 这套系统也能将诸如莫斯电码的加密信息发送至地表。如果报警点配备震动传感 器和便携式电脑，还能实现双向交流。但现在让研究者感兴趣的是它作为廉价的 报警定位系统的潜力。他们估计花费 10 万美元就能为一个矿山配置 100 个紧急 报警点。 Working underground is dangerous even in the most developed countries. Six miners and three rescuers were killed in a collapse at the Crandall Canyon coal mine in Utah in August 2007. For those toiling far below the surface of the Earth, the proposed system could prove a godsend. 即使在最发达的国家，地下工作也是危险的。2007 年 8 月犹他州克兰多峡谷煤 矿的矿难导致 6 名矿工和 3 名搜救队员遇难。对于那些在地下辛苦劳作的人来说， 这套系统简直就是天赐之物。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Connecting Up 网络情缘 The internet 英特网 Connecting up 网络情缘 Mar 26th 2009 | SAN FRANCISCO From The Economist print edition Online-dating websites prosper in the recession 金融危机下交友网站逆势而上 NOT many industries are doing well in the recession. But along with discount retailers and pawnbrokers,

online-dating sites such as eHarmony. com and OkCupid. com have seen business look up. There are several theories to explain why. It may be that people have more time to devote to their private lives as the economy slows; that uncertain times increase the desire for companionship; or that living alone is expensive, whereas couples can split many of their costs. 在经济衰退的大环境下还能有良好业绩的行业并不多，而折扣零售业、典当业以及像 eHarmony. com 和 OKCupid. com 这样的网上交友网站却正好幸运的成为了这样的行业。有很多种说法可以解释这个现象：可 能是因为人们在经济不景气的情况下有了更多的时间关注自己的个人生活；这段充满不确定感的日子催生 了人们对伴侣的渴望；抑或是由于和夫妻两个人在经济上相互扶持相比，单身显得比较奢侈。 “People who have been single for years are suddenly focused on finding someone,”says Greg Waldorf, the boss of eHarmony, a wholesome marriage-oriented site with more than 20 m paying subscribers. He favours the companionship-in-hard-times theory: “Going through difficult times with someone special is better than doing it alone.”In a recent survey carried out for his company, 25% of women said stress about the state of the economy made them more inclined to seek a long-term relationship. The company also noticed that the number of visits to its website was higher than average on days when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 100 points. “人们在长时间单身之后会突然产生寻找自己另一半的想法。”Greg Waldorf-eHarmony. com 这个拥有超过 两千万注册用户的婚介网站的老板如是说。他认为患难更生真情：“和某人携手共度难关的感觉比所有问题 一个人抗更让人感到宽慰。”在他们公司最近的一项调查表明，25％的女性认为经济压力让她们更加急切地 寻求一种长期的同伴关系。他们公司注意到当道琼斯工业指数下跌超过 100 点时他们的网站能够获得更高 的访问量。 At OkCupid, which is aimed at a more casual, youthful crowd, there has been a jump in membership since the financial crisis set in (see chart), and an even bigger jump in how often members use the site. Back in September, users were sending 6,000 on-site instant messages a day, says Sam Yagan, OkCupid's boss. Now that number is over 18,000. OkCupid has the advantage of being free, which has proved popular with people looking for partners for what Mr Yagan euphemistically calls “cheap entertainment”. After all, if you have a girlfriend or a boyfriend, he says, “you can just play Scrabble instead of going out for the evening.” 至于 OkCupid-这个面向不特定的年轻大众用户的交友网站，它们的注册用户人数在金融危机下增长迅速， (见表格)而用户的使用频率更是有了迅猛增长。九月份，用户每天在网站上发送的临时消息还只有 6000 条， 而现在每天已经超过了 18000 条。-OkCupid 的老板 Sam Yagan 指出。OkCupid 的优势在于免费，这使得网 站在那些热衷于寻找被 Sam Yagan 先生委婉地称为“低成本娱乐”的人群中很受欢迎。毕竟，如果你有了男 女朋友，“你就只能选择玩点拼字游戏而不是整夜的出去狂欢”， Sam Yagan 这样形容到。 But perhaps the boom is the result of neither a nesting instinct, nor a desire to save money. AshleyMadison. com, a very different type of dating site, is also doing well. Instead of arranging marriages, the subscription-based site arranges affairs-and never before have so many people been looking for a bit on the side. AshleyMadison's boss, Noel Biderman, thinks his site, and others, are prospering for another reason: money problems. “The majority of relationship discord stems from economic troubles,”he says. Instead of fighting, married people are taking stock of their lives. “They want to do something that makes them feel better about themselves,”Mr Biderman says, “and

$49 is a tiny expenditure for a life-altering affair.” 但也许这种激增的结果并不是人们成家的本能或者出于省钱的目的导致的。像 AshleyMadison. com 这种特 殊的交友网站现在运营的也非常良好。和其他婚介网不同的是，这是一个以为顾客策划特殊事件为卖点的 网站-而以前从来没有这么多人在网上找这些东西。AshleyMadison 的老板 Noel Biderman 认为他们这类网站 的繁荣有其他的原因：钱的问题。“关系的不和谐主要是由于经济因素。”他还认为，相较于斗争，已婚人 士们更愿意总结自己的人生。“他们想要做一些能让自己感到舒服的事情，”Biderman“而且 49 美元对于一 次改变人生的经历来说不算什么。” 经济学人杂志双语阅读：The United States of Entrepreneurs 创业家合众国 A special report on entrepreneurship 关于创业精神的特别报道 The United States of Entrepreneurs 创业家合众国 Mar 12th 2009 From The Economist print edition America still leads the world 美国仍然引领世界 FOR all its current economic woes, America remains a beacon of entrepreneurialism. Between 1996 and 2004 it created an average of 550,000 small businesses every month. Many of those small businesses rapidly grow big. The world's largest company, Wal-Mart, was founded in 1962 and did not go public until a decade later; multi-million dollar companies such as Google and Facebook barely existed a decade ago. 尽管有目前的经济危机，美国依旧是创业精神的领航者。1996 至 2004 年间，该国月均有 55 万个小公司成 立，其中很多成长迅速。当世最大的公司-沃尔玛成立于 1962 年，自成立后近十年才上市。而诸如谷歌和 FACEBOOK 这种资产数百万美元的公司十年前才刚见雏形。 America was the first country, in the late 1970 s, to ditch managerial capitalism for the entrepreneurial variety. After the second world war J. K. Galbraith was still convinced that the modern corporation had replaced “the entrepreneur as the directing force of the enterprise with management”. Big business and big labour worked with big government to deliver predictable economic growth. But as that growth turned into stagflation, an army of innovators, particularly in the computer and finance industries, exposed the shortcomings of the old industrial corporation and launched a wave of entrepreneurship. 70 年代后期，美国是抛弃管理资本主义而采用创业多样化的第一个国家。第二次世界大战后，J. K. Galbraith 仍然坚信现代企业已经取代了“企业家作为企业管理的控制力”。大公司和大量劳动力与大政府配合产生了 可预见的经济增长。但当这种增长变成了滞涨时，改革群体，特别是计算机和金融业的革新者们揭示了那

些老旧工业企业的缺陷并掀起了创业的新浪潮。 America has found the transition to a more entrepreneurial economy easier than its competitors because entrepreneurialism is so deeply rooted in its history. It was founded and then settled by innovators and risk-takers who were willing to sacrifice old certainties for new opportunities. American schoolchildren are raised on stories about inventors such as Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Edison. Entrepreneurs such as Andrew Carnegie and Henry Ford are celebrated in monuments all over the place. One of the country's most popular television programmes, currently being recycled as a film, features the USS Enterprise boldly going where no man had gone before. 美国人发现，较竞争对手而言，他们更易过渡到创业型经济，原因是因为创业精神如此深深扎根于美国的 历史之中。这种理念为那些愿意为新机会而打破陈规旧矩的创新者和冒险者们所挖掘并吸收。伴随美国学 童成长的是本杰明•富兰克林和托马斯•爱迪生这类发明家的故事。人们四处为安德鲁•卡耐基和亨利•福特这 样的企业家树碑褒扬。近期美国最受欢迎之一的电视节目被翻拍成电影，描写了美国企业号航母勇于探索 那些人类未知之地。 If anything, America's infatuation with entrepreneurialism has deepened further of late. People like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs have all the upsides of Carnegie and Ford without the downsides-the useful products and the open-handed philanthropy without the sweatshops and the massacres. Preachers style themselves as pastorpreneurs. Business books sell in their millions. “When I was in college, guys usually pretended they were in a band,” comments one observer. “Now they pretend they are in a start-up.” 如果有什么区别的话，那就是近期美国对创业精神的醉心程度大大加深。诸如比尔•盖茨、史蒂夫•乔布斯 等人与卡耐基、福特等人成就不相上下，而并无前人的不足-有用的产品和慷慨的慈善事业，却没有血汗工 厂与专横的裁员。“传教士将自己塑造为精神先知”。关于商业的书籍销量数以百万，一位书评人说：“当我 上大学的时候，大家一般都自称自己是乐队成员，而现在他们自称在创业”。 Advantage America 有优势的美国 American companies have an unusual freedom to hire and fire workers, and American citizens have an unusual belief that, for all their recent travails, their fate still lies in their own hands. They are comfortable with the risk-taking that is at the heart of entrepreneurialism. The rewards for success can be huge-Google's Mr Brin was a billionaire by the time he was 30-and the punishments for failure are often trivial. In some countries bankruptcy spells social death. In America, particularly in Silicon Valley, it is a badge of honour. 在雇佣和解雇员工上，美国公司有不同寻常的自由，美国民众也有着不同寻常的信念：尽管辛苦，他们的 命运仍掌握在他们自己手中，他们对创业精神核心的“冒险性”习以为常。成功的回报是巨大的-GOOGLE 的创始人之一 Brin 在 30 岁时已成为亿万富翁，而失败的惩罚则往往微不足道。在一些国家，破产意味着 社会性死亡，而在美国，特别是在硅谷，失败则是荣耀的勋章。

America also has several structural advantages when it comes to entrepreneurship. The first is the world's most mature venture-capital industry. America's first venture fund, the American Research and Development Corporation, was founded in 1946; today the industry has an unrivalled mixture of resources, expertise and customers. Highland Capital Partners receives about 10,000 plausible business plans a year, conducts about 1,000 meetings followed by 400 company visits and ends up making 10-20 investments a year, all of which are guaranteed to receive an enormous amount of time and expertise. IHS Global Insight, a consultancy, calculates that in 2005 companies that were once backed by venture capitalists accounted for nearly 17% of America's GDP and 9% of private-sector employment. 当提到创业的时候，美国还具有一些结构性优势。首先是具有世界最成熟的创业资本产业，美国的第一支 创业基金：美国研究与开发公司成立于 1946 年。至今该行业已经拥有资源、技术和客户的完美组合。高原 资本每年接受 1 万个左右的合理化商业计划书，召集大概 1000 次会议，有 400 家公司参加并最终确定 10-20 个投资项目，所有这些都被保证能够负担大量的时间和技术。顾问公司 IHS Global Insight 计算出 2005 全年 曾有过创业资本支持的项目总额接近美国 GDP 总量的 17%，从业人员占私营经济总人数的 9%。 The second advantage is a tradition of close relations between universities and industry. America's universities are economic engines rather than ivory towers, with proliferating science parks, technology offices, business incubators and venture funds. Stanford University gained around $200 m in stock when Google went public. It is so keen on promoting entrepreneurship that it has created a monopoly-like game to teach its professors how to become entrepreneurs. About half of the start-ups in the Valley have their roots in the university. 第二个优势在于大学与产业密切联系的传统。在激增的科学院所、技术中心、企业孵化器、创业基金的助 推下，美国大学更是经济的发动机，而不是象牙塔。谷歌上市时，斯坦福大学在股市中赚取了 2 亿美元。 该大学热衷发扬创业精神，甚至创造了一种“强手棋”来教育自己的教授们如何成为企业家。硅谷大概有一 半的创业都可以从大学追根溯源。 The third advantage is an immigration policy that, historically, has been fairly open. Vivek Wadhwa, of Duke University, notes that 52% of Silicon Valley start-ups were founded by immigrants, up from around a quarter ten years ago. In all, a quarter of America's science and technology start-ups, generating $52 billion and employing 450,000 people, have had somebody born abroad as either their CEO or their chief technology officer. In 2006

foreign nationals were named as inventors or co-inventors in a quarter of American patent applications, up from 7.6% in 1998. 第三个优势是从历史来看，美国有相当开放的移民政策。杜克大学的 Vivek Wadhwa 指出在硅谷 52%的创 业项目由移民创建，而 10 年前该数字仅有大概 25%。那些由非美国本土出生人员担任总裁或首席技术官的 科学和技术创业项目占到总数的 25%，提供了 520 亿美元的产出和 45 万个就业机会。与 1998 年的 7.6%相 比，2006 年有 25%的专利申请授予外国国民发明人或合伙发明人称号。 Amar Bhidé, of Columbia University, suggests a fourth reason for America's entrepreneurial success-“venturesome consumers”. Americans are unusually willing to try new products of all sorts, even if it means teaching themselves new skills and eating into their savings; they are also unusually willing to pester manufacturers to improve their products. Apple sold half a million iPhones in its first weekend. 哥伦比亚大学的 Amar Bhidé提出美国创业精神成功的第四个原因是“敢于冒险的客户”。美国人超乎寻常地 乐于尝试所有的新产品，即使他们需要重新自学新的技能(才能操作新产品)及需要耗费自己储蓄资金(来使 用新产品)。，他们还乐于不厌其烦地促使生产商改进产品。苹果公司在 Iphone 上市的第一周就销售了 50 万个。 America faces numerous threats to this remarkable entrepreneurial ecology. The legal system can be burdensome, even destructive. One of the biggest new problems comes from “patent trolls”-lawyers who bring cases against companies for violating this or that trumped-up patent. Because the tax system is so complicated, many companies have to devote a lot of time and ingenuity to filling out tax forms that could be better spent on doing business. And the combination of the terrorist attacks on America on September 11th 2001 and rising xenophobia is making the country less open to immigrants. 美国卓越的创业生态面临着众多的威胁：法律系统成为了累赘，甚至具有破坏性。最大的新问题之一来自 于“专利钓饵者”-这行律师专事起诉那些侵犯了某项“虚设专利”的公司；由于税收系统的复杂，许多公司必 须投入本应用于公司业务的大量时间和技巧来填报纳税申报表格。再加上 911 事件与仇外情绪上涨的综合 影响，使得美国对移民的开放度下降。 Today more than 1 m people are waiting in line to be granted legal status as permanent residents. Yet only 85,000 visas a year are allocated to the sort of skilled workers the economy needs, and there are caps of 10,000 on the number of visas available for applicants from any one country, so the wait for people from countries with the largest populations, such as India and China, is close to six years.

目前，超过 100 万人正在排队等候获得合法的永久居住权，然而每年只有 8.5 万个签证被分配给那些经济 发展所需要的技术人员。同时，接受来自同一国家的签证申请人数上限仅为 1 万人。也就是说，那些来自 于人口最多的国家，如印度和中国的申请人需要等待将近 6 年的时间。 Yet despite these problems, America plays a vital role in spreading the culture of entrepreneurialism around the world. People the world over admire its ability to produce world-changing entrepreneurs, such as Bill Gates, wealth-creating universities, such as Harvard and Stanford, and world-beating clusters, such as Silicon Valley. Simon Cook, of DFJ Esprit, a venture-capital company, argues that Silicon Valley's most successful export is not Google or Apple but the idea of Silicon Valley itself. 然而，尽管存在这些问题，在向全世界推广创业精神文化中，美国仍扮演着至关重要的角色。人们都钦佩 该国有能力培养足以改变世界的企业家，如比尔•盖茨；创造财富的大学，如哈佛和斯坦福，以及震撼全球 的族群，如硅谷。DFJ Esprit 创业资本公司的西蒙•库克说：“硅谷最成功之处并不是产生了谷歌或苹果，而 是硅谷精神本身”。

Foreigners who were educated in America's great universities have helped to spread the gospel of entrepreneurialism. Two of Europe's leading evangelists, Sir Ronald Cohen and Bert Twaalfhoven, were both products of HBS. Chinese and Indian entrepreneurs, who cut their teeth in Stanford and Silicon Valley, are now returning home in ever larger numbers, determined to recreate Silicon Valley's magic in Bangalore or Shanghai. 在美国顶尖大学接受教育的外国人们也在帮助传播创业精神的福音。在欧洲推广创业精神的两大领军人物： 罗纳德•科恩爵士和 Bert Twaalfhoven 均出自与哈佛大学商学院。刚从斯坦福和硅谷走出的中国和印度的创 业者人数与日俱增，他们正回到自己的家乡，在班加罗尔或上海这样的地方续写硅谷神话。 America is putting hard financial muscle behind this soft power. The Kauffman Foundation spends about $90 m a year, from assets of about $2.1 billion, to make the case for entrepreneurialism, supporting academic research, training would-be entrepreneurs and sponsoring “Global Entrepreneurship Week”, which last year involved 75 countries. Goldman Sachs is spending $100 m over the next five years to promote entrepreneurialism among women in the developing world, particularly through management education. 美国在这种软动力的支持下正在恢复金融实力。资产总额 21 亿美元的考夫曼基金会每年拿出 9000 万美元 资助创业精神推广，包括支持学术研究、培训想成为创业家的人们、赞助“全球创业周”活动(该活动去年有 75 个国家参与)。高盛在未来 5 年内将投入 1 亿美元，特别是通过管理教育，提升那些发展中国家女性的创 业意识。 Old Europe 老旧的欧洲 The other two of the world's three biggest developed economies-the EU and Japan-are far less entrepreneurial. The number of innovative entrepreneurs in Germany, for instance, is less than half that in America, according to the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), a joint venture between the London Business School and Babson College. And far fewer start-ups in those countries become big businesses. Janez Potocnik, the EU commissioner for science and research, points out that only 5% of European companies created from scratch since 1980 have made it into the list of the 1,000 biggest EU companies by market capitalisation. The equivalent figure for America is 22%. 同为全球三大发达经济体的欧洲和日本的创业精神则远远不如美国。根据英国伦敦商学院和美国百森商学 院联合共同发起成立的全球创业观察(GEM)的数据显示，以德国为例，该国的创新型创业数量不及美国的 50%，同时这些欧洲国家新创业公司成为大型企业的可能性则少之又少。欧盟负责科学与研究的委员 Janez Potocnik 指出，按市值排名，1980 年后白手起家的公司中，只有 5%能排入欧洲前 1000 位，而这个比例在 美国则是 22%。 This reflects different cultural attitudes. Europeans have less to gain from taking business risks, thanks to higher tax rates, and more to lose, thanks to more punitive attitudes to bankruptcy (German law, for example, prevents anyone who has ever been bankrupt from becoming a CEO). When Denis Payre was thinking about leaving a safe job in Oracle to start a company in the late 1980 s, his French friends gave him ten reasons to stay put whereas his American friends gave him ten reasons to get on his bike. In January last year Mr Payre's start-up, Business Objects, was sold to Germany's SAP for euro 4.8 billion.

这反映了不同的文化取向，由于较高的税率，欧洲企业通过商业冒险而得到的收益较少，同时由于对破产 严格的法律惩处，损失更多(例如德国法律规定有过破产记录的人不得再担任企业的总裁)。当上世纪 80 年 代后期 Denis Payre 考虑辞去甲骨文公司安稳的工作岗位并创建一家新公司时，他的法国朋友给了他十条留 下来的理由，而美国朋友则正相反，给了他同样数量去创业的理由。去年 1 月份，Payre 创立的商业目标公 司被德国 SAP 公司以 48 亿欧元的高价收购。 European egalitarianism, too, militates against entrepreneurialism: the EU is much more interested in promoting small businesses in general than in fostering high-growth companies. The Europeans' appetite for time off does not help. Workers are guaranteed a minimum of four weeks' holidays a year whereas Americans' vacations are much less certain. Europeans are also much more suspicious of business. According to a Eurobarometer poll, 42% of them think that entrepreneurs exploit other people's work, compared with 26% of Americans. 欧洲的平均主义也妨碍了创业精神的传播：欧盟更乐于广泛地发展小型企业，而不是鼓励高成长企业。欧 洲人对带薪假期的热望毫无益处。员工每年都能确保享受 4 周的假期，而美国则少很多。欧洲人对企业持 有更高的怀疑态度，根据欧洲指标的测评，42%的欧洲人认为企业家们剥削他人的工作成果，而仅有 26% 的美国人这么认为。 These cultural problems are reinforced by structural ones. The European market remains much more fragmented than the American one: entrepreneurs have to grapple with a patchwork of legal codes and an expensive and time-consuming patent system. In many countries the tax system and the labour laws discourage companies from growing above a certain size. A depressing number of European universities remain suspicious of industry, subsisting on declining state subsidies but still unwilling to embrace the private sector. 这些文化性问题由于结构性难题更加突出。欧洲市场较美国市场而言更加分散；创业者们需要服从各种法 律规范；专利申请更加耗时费钱。在很多国家税收系统和劳工法案限制公司的成长规模。欧洲的大多数大 学仍然对商业持怀疑态度，它们依靠持续减少的国家经费维持运行，而并不愿意接受私营企业的捐助。 The European venture-capital industry, too, is less developed than the American one (significantly, in many countries it is called “risk” capital rather than “venture” capital). In 2005, for example, European venture capitalists invested euro 12.7 billion in Europe whereas American venture capitalists invested euro 17.4 billion in America. America has at least 50 times as many “angel”investors as Europe, thanks to the taxman's greater forbearance. 欧洲的创业资本行业也不如美国发达(尤为重要的是，在很多国家被称为“风险”资本而不是“创业”资本)。举 例说明，2005 年欧洲创业投资额为 127 亿欧元，而美国则达到了 174 亿欧元。感谢那些纳税人更好的忍耐 能力，美国的“天使”投资人数量是欧洲的至少 50 倍。 Yet for all its structural and cultural problems, Europe has started to change, not least because America's venture capitalists have recently started to export their model. In the 1990 s Silicon Valley's moneybags believed that they should invest “no further than 20 miles from their offices”, but lately the Valley's finest have been establishing offices in Asia and Europe. This is partly because they recognise that technological breakthroughs are being made in many more places, but partly also because they believe that applying American methods to new economies can start a torrent of entrepreneurial creativity.

尽管有这些结构性和文化性问题，欧洲已经开始转变，尤其是当美国创业资本投资人近期开始输出这种模 式。上世纪 90 年代硅谷的富人们认为他们的投资“不能超出办公室 20 英里的范围“，而近来最好的公司已 经开始在亚洲和欧洲设立机构。这种做法部分源于他们意识到在更多的地方可以实现技术突破，部分由于 这些公司相信在新兴经济中应用美国方法可以产生创业创新的浪潮。 Between 2003 and 2006 European venture-capital investment grew by an average of 23% a year, compared with just 0.3% a year in America. Indeed, three European countries, Denmark, Sweden and Britain, have bigger venture-capital industries, in relation to the size of their economies, than America. Venture-capital-backed start-ups have produced more than 100 “exits”(stockmarket flotations or sales to established companies) worth more than $100 m since 2004. Tele Atlas, a Dutch mapping outfit, was recently bought by TomTom for $4.3 billion. 在 2003 至 2006 年间，欧洲创业资本投资以年均 23%的速度增长，而美国则只有年均 0.3%的增量。诚然， 与美国相比，三个欧洲国家：丹麦、瑞典和英国的创业资本行业占经济规模的比重较大。自 2004 年起，创 业资本资助的项目发生了 100 多次“重组”(对公司通过股市或进行直接收购)，涉及资金超过 1 亿美元。德国 地图设备商 Tele Atlas 近期被 TomTom 以 43 亿美元收购。 The success of Skype, which pioneered internet-based telephone calls, was a striking example of the new European entrepreneurialism. The company was started by a Swede and a Dane who contracted out much of their work to computer programmers in Estonia. In 2005 they sold it to eBay for $2.6 billion. 互联网通话的领军公司 Skype 的成功为新欧洲创业精神树立了一个惊人的典范。这家公司最初由一个瑞典 人和一个丹麦人发起设立，他们把许多工作外包给爱沙尼亚的计算机程序员。2005 年，公司以 26 亿美元 的价格卖给 eBay。 Several European universities have become high-tech hubs. Britain's Cambridge, for example, has spawned more

than 3,000 companies and created more than 200 millionaires in the university. The accession of ten eastern European countries to the EU has also tapped into an internal European supply of scientists and technologists who are willing to work for a small fraction of the cost of their pampered western neighbours. 一些欧洲大学也变成了高科技集中地。例如英国的剑桥孕育出 3000 多家公司，为大学创造了 200 多个百万 富翁。新加入欧盟的 10 个东欧国家也加强了欧洲内部的科学家和技术人员的供给量。这些人乐意以更低的 成本为那些较富裕的西欧邻居们工作。 Slowcoach Japan 行动迟缓的日本 The Japanese can hardly be accused of aversion to long hours. Big Japanese companies have an impressive record of incremental improvement, particularly in the electronics business. But for the most part the Japanese have been less successful than the Europeans at adapting to entrepreneurial capitalism. The latest GEM global report gives Japan the lowest score for entrepreneurship of any big country, placing it joint bottom with Greece. The brightest people want to work for large companies, with which the big banks work hand in glove, or for the government. Risk capital is rare. Bankruptcy is severely punished. And the small-business sector is wrapped in cotton wool, encouraging “replicative”rather than “innovative”behaviour. Over the past quarter-century the rate at which Japan has been creating new businesses has been only one-third to half that in America. 长期以来，日本人几乎从不让人反感。大型日本公司保持了惊人的增长记录，特别是在电子行业尤为突出。 但在很大程度上，日本在引入创业精神上没有欧洲人成功。最新的 GEM 全球报告在对所有大国的创业精 神评价中，给予了日本最低分数，这使日本和希腊两国共同垫底。在日本，最聪明的人希望为政府或大公 司工作，那些大公司与大银行关系紧密。在这里基本没有风险资本，而破产会受到严厉的惩罚。小型企业 则被被束手束脚，它们鼓励“复制”而非“创新”。在过去的四分之一个世纪中，日本所创建的新公司比例仅 占美国的三分之一到二分之一。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Asia, An astonishing rebound 亚洲，惊人的反弹 Asia, An astonishing rebound 亚洲，惊人的反弹 Aug 13th 2009 From The Economist print edition Asia's emerging economies are leading the way out of recession; now they must make their recovery last 亚洲新兴经济体正在率先走出衰退；然而它们必须使复苏得以持久

IT NEVER pays to underestimate the bounciness of Asia's emerging economies. After the region's financial crisis of 1997-98, and again after the dotcom bust in 2001, outsiders predicted a lengthy period on the floor-only for the tigers to spring back rapidly. Earlier this year it was argued that such export-dependent economies could not revive until customers in the rich world did. The West still looks weak, with many economies contracting in the second quarter, and even if America begins to grow in the second half of this year, consumer spending looks sickly. Yet Asian economies, increasingly decoupled from Western shopping habits, are growing fast. 低估亚洲新兴经济体的反弹性是得不偿失的。在该地区 1997 至 98 年的金融危机之后，以及后来又一次在 2001 年网络泡沫的破灭之后，局外人都预测会有一个长期探底的过程-然而它们却如猛虎般的迅速跃起。今 年早期人们认为这样的出口依赖型经济体只有在发达国家的消费复苏以后才可能恢复活力。西方国家仍然 看起来很疲软，许多经济体在第二季度中衰退，并且即使美国在今年下半年开始增长，消费者开支看来也 是虚弱无力的。然而伴随着亚洲经济体和西方式消费方式的关联不断减弱，前者正在快速增长。 The four emerging Asian economies which have reported GDP figures for the second quarter (China, Indonesia, South Korea and Singapore) grew by an average annualised rate of more than 10% (see article). Even richer and more sluggish Japan, which cannot match that figure, seems to be recovering faster than its Western peers. But emerging Asia should grow by more than 5% this year-at a time when the old G7 could contract by 3.5%. Western politicians should brace themselves for more talk of economic power drifting inexorably to the East. How has Asia made such an astonishing rebound? 四个新兴亚洲经济体(中国，印尼，南韩与新加坡)披露的第二季度 GDP 数字显示它们以平均高于 10%的年 化比率增长。即使是更富裕且萧条的日本，虽然其 GDP 不能与这些数字相比，仍然显得比西方发达国家恢 复要快。然而新兴亚洲国家本应该以高过 5%的速率增长-在古老的 G7 收缩 3.5%的时候。西方政客们应该 稳住情绪开始准备更多的关于经济实力向东方不可动摇地转移的对话。那么亚洲经济是如何形成了如此惊 人的反弹？ Out of smoke and mirrors, say some Western sceptics. They claim China's bounceback is yet another fake. The country's numbers are certainly dodgy: the components of GDP do not add up, and the data are always published suspiciously early. China's economy probably slowed more sharply in late 2008 than the official numbers suggest. But other indicators, which are less likely to be massaged, confirm that China's economy is roaring back. Industrial production rose 11% in the year to July; electricity output, which fell sharply last year, is growing again; and car

sales are 70% higher than a year ago. 一些西方怀疑论者认为(这种反弹)仅仅是水中月雾中花。他们声称中国的经济反弹只是又一个骗局。这个 国家的统计数据必定是弄虚作假：GDP 的组成部分是不合理的，并且数据总是发布的令人可疑的早。2008 年后期中国经济减缓可能比官方数据所揭示的要严重得多。然而其他一些不易被操纵的指标确认了中国经 济的快速恢复。上半年的工业生产总值上升了 11%，去年剧烈下滑的发电量重新增长；汽车消费比一年前 高出 70%。 And surely the whole of Asia cannot be engaged in a statistical fraud. South Korea's GDP grew by an annualised 10% in the second quarter. Taiwan's probably increased by even more: its industrial output jumped by an astonishing annualised rate of 89%. India was hit less hard by the global recession than many of its neighbours because it exports less, but its industrial production has also perked up, rising by a seasonally adjusted rate of 14% in the second quarter. Output in most of the smaller Asian economies is still lower than a year ago, because they suffered steep downturns late last year. But at economic turning points, one should track quarterly changes. 并且可以肯定，整个亚洲不可能同时参与统计造假。第二季度南韩的 GDP 以年率 10%增长。台湾可能增长 了更多：它的工业产出以令人震惊的 89%的年率跃升。比起邻国，由于出口较少，印度受全球经济衰退的 影响较小，然而其工业生产总值依旧得以提升，在第二季度以按季节调节 14%的速度增长。那些较小的亚 洲经济体的产出仍然低于一年前，由于它们去年遭受到陡峭的下滑。但是在经济转折点，我们应该跟踪季 度性的变化。 Thrift in the boom, stimulus in the slump 景气时节俭，不景气时刺激 Asia's rebound has several causes. First, manufacturing accounts for a big part of several local economies, and industries such as cars and electronics are highly cyclical: output drops sharply in a downturn and then spurts in the upturn. Second, the region's decline in exports in late 2008 was exacerbated by the freezing up of global trade finance, which is now flowing again. Third, and most important, domestic spending has bounced back because the fiscal stimulus in the region was bigger and worked faster than in the West. India aside, the Asians entered this downturn with far healthier government finances than rich countries, allowing them to spend more money. Low private-sector debt made households and firms more likely to spend government handouts; Asian banks were also in better shape than their Western counterparts and able to lend more. Asia's prudence during the past decade did not allow it to escape the global recession, but it made the region's fiscal and monetary weapons more effective. 亚洲的反弹有许多原因。首先，生产制造业是许多地方经济的重要组成部分，并且诸如汽车与电子工业是 高度周期性的：产出在下降周期锐减，在上升周期剧增。第二，全球贸易金融资本的冻结加重了该地区 2008 年后期的出口下滑，而目前前者重新开始流动。第三，并且也是最重要的，由于该地区的财政刺激比西方 的规模更大，运转的也更快，国内消费支出得以反弹。除开印度，亚洲国家进入下降周期时政府财政情况 要比富裕国家健康很多，这使得它们能够花更多的钱。较少的私有部门借贷使得家庭与公司更热衷于花费 政府的救济款；同样地，亚洲的银行比西方的同行拥有更好的资产形态，能够出借更多。过去十年间亚洲 的谨慎没有能够使之逃避全球性的衰退，但它使本地区的财政与货币“武器”更加有效。 Western populists will no doubt once again try to blame their own sluggish performance on “unfair”Asia. Ignore

them. Emerging Asia's average growth rate of almost 8% over the past two decades-three times the rate in the rich world-has brought huge benefits to the rest of the world. Its rebound now is all the more useful when growth in the West is likely to be slow. Asia cannot replace the American consumer: emerging Asia's total consumption amounts to only two-fifths of America's. But it is the growth in spending that really matters. In dollar terms, the increase in emerging Asia's consumer-spending this year will more than offset the drop in spending in America and the euro area. This shift in spending from the West to the East will help rebalance the world economy. 毫无质疑，西方民粹主义者们会再一次试图把他们自身糟糕的表现归咎于“不公平”的亚洲。忽视这些奇谈 怪论吧。新兴亚洲经济体过去的 20 年间的平均 8%的增长率-三倍于发达国家-为世界的其他地区带来了巨 大的好处。当西方世界的增长率可能处于较低水平之时，亚洲经济体目前的反弹只会更有益处。亚洲无法 替代美国消费者的作用：新兴亚洲经济体的总消费只是美国的 2/5。但是事实上真正重要的是消费开支的增 长。用美元计算，今年新兴亚洲经济体的消费支出的增长会完全盖过美欧地区的支出减少。这种从西方到 东方的消费转移会有助于重新平衡世界经济。 Beijing, Bangkok and Bangalore: beware boastfulness 北京，曼谷与班加罗尔：谨防自负 It is easy to boost an economy with lots of government spending. But Asian policymakers now face two difficult problems. Their immediate dilemma is how to sustain recovery without inflating credit and asset-price bubbles. Local equity and property markets are starting to froth. But policymakers' reluctance to let their currencies rise faster against the dollar means that their monetary policy is, in effect, being set by America's Federal Reserve, and is therefore too lax for these perkier economies. The longer-term challenge is that once the impact of governments' fiscal stimulus fades, growth will slow unless economic reforms are put in place to bolster private spending-something Japan, alas, never did (see article). 用一大笔政府支出来推动经济是一件容易的事。但是亚洲政策制定者们目前面的两大难题。他们目前的两 难处境是如何支持经济回转，而不吹大信用与资产价格的泡沫。地方产权与所有权市场正开始涌起泡沫。 然而政策制定者们不愿使自己的货币兑美元快速升值的心理意味着他们的货币政策事实上是由美联储设定 的，从而对这些洋洋自得的经济体来说过于宽松。长期的挑战在于一旦政府财政刺激的冲击影响消退后， 增长将会放缓，除非促进私人消费的经济改革得以实施。日本曾经希望这样做，但从未付诸实践。 Part of the solution to both problems-preventing bubbles and strengthening domestic spending-is to allow exchange rates to rise. If Asian central banks stopped piling up reserves to hold down their currencies, this would help stem domestic liquidity. Stronger currencies would also shift growth from exports to domestic demand and increase households' real spending power-and help ward off protectionists in the West. 同时解决这两大问题-防止泡沫与促进国内消费-的部分解决方案是容许汇率上浮。如果亚洲国家的央行停 止囤积外汇储备以压低其货币汇率的话，这将有助于遏制其国内的流动性。强势的货币也会使出口导向型 增长向内需拉动型增长转变，并提高家庭的实际购买力-也能使西方贸易保护主义者们闭嘴。 Hubris is the big worry. With the gap in growth rates between emerging Asia and the developed world heading towards a record nine percentage points this year, Chinese leaders have taken to warning America about its lax monetary policy (while Washington has stopped lecturing China about the undervalued yuan). But it would be a

big mistake if Asia's recovery led its politicians to conclude that there was no need to change their exchange-rate policies or adopt structural reforms to boost consumption. The tigers' faster-than-expected rebound from their 1997-98 financial crisis encouraged complacency and delayed necessary reforms, which left them more vulnerable to the global downturns in 2001 and now. Make sure this new rise is not followed by another fall. 傲慢是一个大问题。今年新兴亚洲经济体与发达世界的经济增长率差距正指向创纪录的 9%，中国领导人们 已习以为常地就过于松弛的货币政策问题警告美国(而华盛顿方面已停止职责被低估的人民币)。然而如果 亚洲的复苏使其政客们作出没有必要调整汇率政策或采取经济结构改革以拉动消费的结论，那恐怕是一个 极大的错误。亚洲之虎们从 97-98 年金融危机中快于预期的反弹怂恿了它们的骄傲自负并推迟了必要的改 革，这使它们面对 2001 年与目前的全球性衰退显得更加脆弱无助。必须确保本次新的上升之后不会跟来另 一次衰退。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Taiwan's disastrous typhoon 毁灭性台风袭击台湾 Aug 13th 2009 From The Economist print edition AP The confirmed death toll in Taiwan caused by Typhoon Morakot, which first hit the island on August 6 th, causing the worst floods since 1959, is bad enough. By the middle of this week, over 100 people were reported dead and more than 60 were missing. But there had been fears that 500 people had been buried alive in Hsiao Lin, a village in the wooded mountains of Taiwan's south, and even more in remote neighbouring villages. These eased on August 12 th, when almost 1,600 people were found alive by a 25-helicopter search mission. Survivors had not eaten for days and helicopters dropped provisions and began a slow evacuation, hampered by drenching rain. The army says it does not know how many people may have died there. The government faced criticism for not having arranged an evacuation as soon as it heard the typhoon was coming. “We should brace ourselves against typhoons as if they are an invading enemy,”said Chu Wen-sen, one of Taiwan's leading water-management experts. 台风莫拉克于 8 月 6 日第一次袭击台湾。导致台湾境内发生了自 1959 年以来最肆虐的洪水。人员伤亡十分 惨重。 据报导，本周三又有 100 多人遇难，60 多人失踪。台湾南部林乡的小林村估计 500 人被活埋，邻村甚至更 多。8 月 12 号，25 架直升机搜救队伍发现了 1600 多人依然存活。人们紧张的情绪终于有所放松。这些幸

存者已经数日没有进食了。受连绵不绝的大雨影响，直升机空投了一些援救物资，并且慢慢展开营救。救 援军队对死亡的人数仍然不知。台湾政府由于在获得台风来临的消息之后没有及时组织民众的疏导撤离工 作，受到批评。台湾的水利专家楚文森说：台风就像侵略军，我们应该团结一致，奋起抗击。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Overseas and under siege 困居海外 Overseas and under siege 困居海外 Aug 11th 2009 From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire An apparent rise in violence against Chinese labourers working overseas 中国海外劳工遭袭明显增多 Chinese money is helping to drive infrastructure investment in many developing countries, but in its wake has also come a big rise in Chinese immigrants and overseas workers that has proved less popular. As the number of attacks on Chinese citizens and property increases, domestic pressure may grow on China's government to respond assertively, undermining its doctrine of non-intervention in the internal affairs of sovereign states. 在许多发展中国家的基建投资中，都有中国的银子相助，但是自此之后，不为银子一般流行的中国移民和 国外劳工也大幅增加。中国公民在外人身财产愈发频繁遭袭，中国政府可能会面临国内日益增加的压力， 要求置“不干涉主权国家内政”原则于不顾，对此果断回应。 The last few months have seen another outbreak of anti-Chinese rioting in countries that casual observers might have been surprised to find even had a Chinese minority. In Algeria this August, clashes broke out between Chinese and locals in the capital, Algiers, leaving several people injured and a number of Chinese shops looted. Chinese shops around the capital were closed for the period following the violence, and there were calls from some Algerian traders for the expulsion of all Chinese immigrants from the country. Across the world in Papua New Guinea even more serious violence was witnessed after anti-Chinese rioting, reportedly involving thousands of people, broke out in May. At least one person was killed and Chinese-owned businesses were pillaged in several cities (including the capital, Port Moresby) and towns throughout the country. 近几个月来，在一些若不留心都难以寻觅华人踪影的国度中，反华暴动却再次高涨。今年 8 月在阿尔及利 亚，当地人与华人发生群殴事件，数人受伤，不少华人商铺遭到掠抢。暴力事件发生后一段时日，阿尔及 尔附近的华人商铺停止营业，而一些阿尔及利亚贸易商呼吁将中国移民驱逐出国。在地球另一端的巴布亚 新几内亚，反华暴动后甚至发生了更加严重的暴力事件，据报道，事发之时正值五月，上千人参与，至少 一人死亡，而在巴国诸多城镇(包括首都莫尔兹比港)，华人公司都遭抢劫。 Two outbreaks of violence could be deemed tragic but coincidental. However, the last few years have seen many similar bouts of rioting that have specifically targeted expatriate Chinese communities. The most serious occurred in the Solomon Islands in 2006, when the Chinatown in the capital, Honiara, suffered extensive damage amid riots

that drove out much of the country's ethnic Chinese population. These followed an election in which many politicians were accused of having received bribes from Chinese businessmen as China and Taiwan vied for the Islands' diplomatic recognition. The same year saw outbreaks of unrest in the nearby island country of Tonga that also targeted Chinese firms and premises-the unrest erupted as pro-democracy groups accused the government of failing to advance democratic reforms, but rapidly took on anti-immigrant overtones. 若只有两场暴乱，可视作悲剧之巧合。而几年来，许多类似的血腥事件箭头直指侨居华人群体。最严重的 发生在 2006 年，索罗门群岛首都霍尼亚拉的唐人街受到大面积创伤，迫使大部分华人群体离开该国。接下 来的大选中，诸多政客均受指责，在中国大陆和台湾竞争索罗门群岛外交认同之际接受大陆商人贿赂。同 年，在附近岛国汤加，民主倡议组织指责政府不推行民主改革，但是话音马上转向了反移民，从而发生了 针对中国公司和厂址的暴乱。 Africa saw similar riots in 2006 in the Zambian capital, Lusaka, following the election defeat of the opposition's presidential candidate, Michael Sata, who had run a campaign that strongly focused on the negative effects of rising Chinese involvement in the local economy. Zambia has since seen a steady rumbling of anti-China sentiment, mostly in the copper belt where Chinese investment is concentrated-a Chinese copper mine manager was hospitalised in March 2008 after a protest by workers over conditions. Unrest also broke out in 2007 in Lesotho, when local small-scale retailers, angered by a campaign to relocate them to a designated market place away from the city centre, went on a rampage targeting Chinese-owned businesses. 在非洲国家赞比亚，反对派总统竞选人迈克尔.萨塔发起运动，强烈抨击愈多华人参与当地经济之不利影响， 他竞选告负后，首都卢萨卡也发生了类似暴乱。此后，赞比亚国内反华情绪逐步高涨，在中国投资集中的 铜带省尤甚-2008 年 3 月，工人对工作条件发出抗议，一名中国铜矿经理受伤住院。2007 年，莱索托国内 发起运动，将当地小型零售商迁徙至远离市中心的制定集散地，当事人怒火中烧，最终此事又发展成为针 对华人企业的动乱。 Rising resentment 恨意加剧 Chinese communities abroad have long lived under the threat of persecution. The long-established ethnic-Chinese minorities in South-east Asia have been on the receiving end of some of the worst pogroms, with tens of thousands dying in Indonesia and Malaysian riots in the last century (the most recent violence in Indonesia, in 1998, may have left as many as 1,500 dead). In the decades since 1978, when China began its economic reforms, the number of Chinese who have moved abroad has increased rapidly and their destinations have become more varied. In the last few years China's increasingly open-handed approach to funding overseas infrastructure has heightened this flow of emigration. Developing nations across the world have been keen to accept Chinese financing for their roads, ports and telecommunications networks, but this money usually comes with requirements that foreign governments allow Chinese companies to do the work-and most often with a large number of Chinese labourers. 长久以来，海外的中国团体就生活在迫害威胁之下。东南亚源远流长的华人群体一直是最恶劣屠杀的受害 者，上世纪在印尼和大马的暴乱中，有上万华人遇难(距今最近的暴乱发生在 1998 年的印尼，约有 1,500

华人死于其中)。1978 年中国经济改革过后的几十年，大批华人走出国门，奔向各个国家。近年来中国资助 国外基础建设，愈发慷慨，因此更多华人流向海外。世界各地的发展中国家都希望能够得到中国赞助，修 建公路、港口和电信网络，但是如想得到支援，外国政府就需要允许中国公司运作-大部分情况下，还需要 允许大批中国劳工前来工作。 As a result of these trends, Chinese communities across the developing world have expanded explosively. Official data from governments in these countries are wildly contradictory on the exact numbers, but in Algeria, for example, press reports at the time of the recent riots suggested there were between 25,000 and 35,000 Chinese in the country, many working on petrochemical projects associated with Chinese investments. Coupled with this boom in the number of Chinese living abroad has come the impact of country's export juggernaut. Surging Chinese exports, especially to the developed world, have crushed local manufacturing industries in many parts of the developing world, particularly in the textiles trade. Small-scale Chinese retailers have also tended to crowd out local vendors, exploiting their ties to the source of the products now dominating foreign markets. The result can often be rising resentment against expatriate Chinese communities. 大势所趋，发展中国家内部的华人团体迅速壮大。具体数目究竟多少，各个国家的官方数据相去甚远，但 是据最近暴动的媒体报道推测，阿尔及利亚应有 25,000 到 35,000 华人，其中大部分都是在于中国投资相关 的化工产业工作，其他国家亦是如此。与中国侨民数量激增同时而来的，还有中国震慑人心的出口影响。 中国针对发达国家的出口狂潮，在发展中国家许多地方也以秋风扫落叶之势，对当地加工业发起了冲击， 纺织工业尤是。小规模的中国零售商利用他们现在占据外国市场的资源关系，也展示出了挤出当地竞争对 手的架势。如此一来，反对侨居华人团体的情绪日益上涨。 Adding to this can be other issues, such as labour incidents and land claims. The recent violence in Papua New Guinea followed an incident in which a Chinese worker driving a tractor at the Ramu nickel mine (which is being developed by a Chinese state enterprise, the China Metallurgical Construction Group) injured a local man. Land owners have also attacked Chinese employees at the mine. The violence in Zambia violence has also been linked to labour conditions in Chinese-owned mines, notably the Chambishi copper mine. 其他问题也会随之而来，诸如劳工事故和用地申请。在最近的巴布亚新几内亚暴乱之后，一名驾驶拖拉机 的中国人在(由中国国有的中国冶金建设集团公司开发的)拉穆镍矿撞伤了一名当地居民。土地所有者对矿 上的中国雇员以暴力回击。赞比亚的暴力事件也同中国所有的矿井中-尤其是谦比西铜矿-工作条件密切相 关。 An easy target 海外弱者 For those who wish to target them, Chinese expatriates and their businesses are easily identifiable, marked by Chinese-language signs and often clustering in Chinatowns-it is notable that almost all anti-Chinese rioting has taken place in city centres, rather than near the infrastructure projects where many Chinese workers are employed. In Chinese areas there is sometimes a sharp cultural divide from the local environment. In Islamic countries there are frequent complaints about the open consumption of alcohol and immodest dress of Chinese businessmen and workers. In some places, such as Afghanistan, Chinese residents have even been linked with prostitution rackets.

若想袭击中国侨民或者他们的公司，中文标志和总是熙熙攘攘的唐人街一看便知-值得一提的是，大部分反 华暴动都发生在市中心，而中国工人所在的基建基地却并不多见。在某些情况下，华人聚集地和周围的当 地环境形成了鲜明的反差。如在伊斯兰国家，抱怨中国商人和劳工招摇售酒、衣着暴露的比比皆是。在阿 富汗等地，中国居民甚至与卖淫联系在了一起。 While these factors may explain some of the underlying resentment levelled against Chinese communities overseas, it is probably no coincidence that in the majority of cases to date anti-Chinese rioting has been preceded by domestic political instability in the host country. In places like Tonga, the Solomon Islands and Zambia public anger against the government was already high, and the outbreak of violence against Chinese businesses was partly a result of opposition movements seeking to strengthen their positions. 为什么中国海外群体如此招致仇恨，多少有以上原因。但是迄今为止，多数反华暴动都是接发生国家内部 的政治动乱而来，恐怕不是巧合。比如汤家、所罗门群岛和赞比亚，公众对政府的抗议已然高涨，而对中 国公司暴力事件的爆发，只不过是反对运动公众寻求巩固地位所造成的后果之一。 Unusual quiescence 一反常态，保持缄默 So far the Chinese government has had a curiously muted response to these incidents, confined to organising evacuations and relief. This is surprising given its tendency to react very strongly when it feels its national interest is threatened on issues such as trade or minority regions like Tibet. However, it is in part a reflection of the lessons of history. The Chinese government's strong response to the Indonesian pogroms against that country's ethnic Chinese in the 1960 s and 1970 s only served to stoke the Indonesian government's mistrust, leading to further persecution. 目前，中国政府却难以理解地对这些事件保持沉默，做出的反应只不过是组织华人疏散和营救。一般情况 下，在贸易和西藏等少数民族问题上，中国在认为国家利益受到威胁之时都会做出强烈反应。但若回顾历 史，保持沉默实属身不由己。上个世纪六七十年代印尼屠杀华人，中国政府强烈抗议却只能换来印尼政府 对中国不信任，从而引发了进一步的迫害。 Despite this, pressures for a more activist position are growing. Within China, there is little distinction between nationality and ethnicity; even when ethnic Chinese hold a foreign passport both the government and the wider public tend to view them as citizens of China. More and more, the domestic media is bringing examples of the abuse of Chinese citizens abroad to public attention, increasing the pressure on the government to act. 尽管如此，仍有呼声要求表明反对立场，压力与日俱增。中国的国家和民族并无显著差别，就算持有国外 护照的中国人，政府也倾向将其视作中国公民。国内媒体进一步向公开华人在外受到不公平待遇的事例， 要求政府对此反应的压力越来越大。 For the time being, the Chinese government's main priority will be national strategic interests-be they mining operations (as in Zambia), the diplomatic isolation of Taiwan (a factor in the violence in the Solomon Islands) or the success of multi-billion dollar investments led by its state-owned enterprises (as in Algeria). However, as more Chinese businesses expand overseas and more Chinese live and work abroad, the government will have to put more emphasis on defending the welfare of its nationals. This will introduce yet another complicating factor into

Chinese diplomacy. 眼下中国政府看中的是国家战略利益，不管是在赞比亚矿业的良好运转，引发所罗门群岛时间原因之一的 外交隔离台湾，抑或是在阿尔及利亚中国国有企业数十亿巨款投资的成功。然而，随着中国公司和中国侨 民的增加，政府定会对国人的利益进步强调。中国外交又多了一个复杂因素。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：No way to start out in life 何去何从 Rising youth unemployment 青年失业人数不断攀升 No way to start out in life 何去何从 Jul 16th 2009 From The Economist print edition The plight of the young jobless calls into question Labour's record 青年失业人数攀升人才数据遭到质疑 Report Digital THE human cost of the recession is felt most keenly by the unemployed. That cost, already high and rising, is steepest of all for young people who cannot find work. They are emerging as the prime victims of the slump. 失业人口最能体会到此次经济危机带来的代价。失业人口数据高居不下并且还在继续攀升，其中以无业青 年为最。他们逐渐成了此次危机最大的受害者。 The overall unemployment rate rose to 7.6% of the labour force during the three months to May, according to official figures published on July 15 th. A year earlier it stood at just 5.2%. The total number of jobless is now close to 2.4 m after increasing by a record 281,000 over the previous quarter, the three months to February. 7 月 15 日公布的官方数据显示，3 月至 5 月，英国失业人数占劳动力的 7.6%，而去年同期这个数字仅为 5.2%。 前一季度，即 08 年 12 月到 09 年 2 月失业人数创历史新高，上升了 28.1 万，现在失业人口总数已经接近

240 万。 This dramatic resurgence of unemployment is unwinding the clock. The jobless rate is now the highest since the end of 1996, six months before Labour won power. Even more worrying, the rate of unemployment among young people aged 18-24 has jumped from 11.9% to 17.3% over the past year. Not since 1993, in the aftermath of the previous and less savage recession, has it been higher (see chart). Indeed, the total number of unemployed youngsters aged 16-24 has now reached 928,000, up by 108,000 since the previous quarter ending in February. If it carries on rising at this pace there will be more than a million jobless young people later this year. 失业率大幅反弹使得先前的努力付诸东流。现在失业率为 1996 年末(半年后工党当权)以来的最高点。更糟 的是，过去一年，18 到 24 岁的青年失业人数从 11.9%上升到了 17.3%。只有 93 年的失业率略高于当前的 数字(见上表)，而当前的危机要比 93 年前的那场危机更为严峻。的确，3 月以来，16 到 24 岁的青年失业 人数上升了 10.8 万，现在失业青年总数已高达 92.8 万。若照此态势发展下去，今年下半年青年失业人口将 超过 100 万。 Young people typically find it hard to get established in the labour market because of their lack of experience, which makes them especially vulnerable in downturns. But even before the recession Britain's youngsters had been faring worse than their counterparts elsewhere. Between 1998 and 2005, the jobless rate for 16-24-year-olds in Britain was lower than the average for the OECD, a club of mainly rich countries, but since then it has been higher. The unemployment gap between that age group and 25-54-year-olds widened from 2004 to 2007 in Britain while staying broadly the same across the OECD. 由于年轻人缺少社会经验，找工作尤为困难，这也使得他们成为衰退浪潮中尤为无助的人群。甚至在衰退 之前，英国的青年人也比其他国家的同龄人更为担心就业问题。98 年到 05 年间，英国 16 到 24 岁青年失 业率低于“富国俱乐部”经合组织国家的平均值，但 05 年后，其青年人口失业率则反超平均值。经合组织国 家青年失业人数(16-24 岁)与青壮年失业人数(24-54 岁)之间的差距无大变化，而在英国，04 到 07 年间这两 个人群的失业人口差距却有所扩大。 The timing of the deterioration points to two possible explanations. A commonly held view is that British youngsters have been displaced by the influx of youthful migrants from eastern Europe since 2004. But this is the “lump-of-labour”fallacy-that a job for a Polish cleaner means one fewer for a native worker. Research by Sara

Lemos, an economist at Leicester University, and Jonathan Portes of the Department for Work and Pensions last year found that the wave of migration had not increased youth unemployment. 从青年就业情况恶化的时间来看，人们有两种猜测。普遍的看法之一，04 起来自东欧的青年移民分占了英 国年轻人的就业机会。但这好似“劳工总量固定”的谬论，如“一个来自波兰的清洁工就相当于占了本地人民 的一个工作岗位”云云。去年莱斯特大学的经济学家 Sara Lemos 和英国就业与退休保障部的 Jonathan Portes 调查发现，并非移民浪潮导致了青年失业人数的增加。 A more likely explanation, though still disputed, is that the minimum wage was pushed up too much a few years ago. When it was introduced in April 1999, the main rate was set at £3.60 ($5.80) an hour, a fairly modest amount. There was a lower floor of £3 for 18-21-year-olds, because young workers' chances in the labour market were recognised to be especially sensitive to pay. 另一种猜测尽管还在争论中，却更为合理，即几年前最低工资标准被提的过高。1999 年四月最初设定最低 工资为一小时 3.6 英镑(5.8 美元)，并不高。鉴于年轻人就业的概率，人们认为他们的工资是个敏感问题， 18 到 21 岁年轻人的最低工资仅为 3 英镑。 Since then, however, both rates have risen by 59% and outstripped average earnings, which have gone up by 45% in the past ten years. The increases were particularly big in the four years to 2006, adding to the suspicion that the minimum wage was implicated in the rising rate of youth unemployment over that period. The Low Pay Commission, the quango which sets the floor wage, contests this notion, but has been raising it at a more moderate pace in the past couple of years. 十年间，一般最低工资与青年最低工资都上涨了 59%，而平均收益仅上涨了 45%。03 到 06 年四年间，最 低工资涨幅更大，人们更加相信这一点影响了当时青年人的失业率。制定最低工资标准的半官方机构底薪 委员会为自己辩护的同时，还是在过去几年缓慢的提升了最低工资底线。 Where there is more general agreement is that the young people who are most vulnerable in the labour market are the low-skilled. Even when the economy was doing well in the middle of this decade, only 45% of children leaving school without a qualification such as five good GCSEs were employed a year later. Now relatively unskilled youngsters are bearing the brunt of the recession. Not only are young people more likely than older workers to be made redundant, but those with no or poor qualifications are much more likely to be sacked than graduates. 更普遍的看法是，没有能力的年轻人在就业市场中最为无助。即便在经济景气的 05、06 年，只有 45%没有 拿到英国中学普通毕业证等证书的学生在离校一年后能找到工作。就业市场优胜劣汰，较于职场老手，年 轻人更容易下岗，而没有学历或学历低的人往往是首批被裁员的人选。 The government is trying to prevent a drift into long-term unemployment. Employers can now get a subsidy of £1,000 ($1,640) if they recruit someone who has been out of work for at least six months. And from the start of next year, any young person who has been jobless for a year or more will be guaranteed a job or training. 为避免失业率长期高居不下，政府为公司提供了专项补贴，公司每雇佣一名下岗半年以上的人员，就可获 得 1000 英镑(1640 美元)补助。明年起，任何一年或一年以上未找到工作的年轻人都会被安排就业或培训。 But the surge in youth unemployment is doubly embarrassing for Labour. Getting young people off benefit and into work was one of the party's five main pledges in the 1997 general election. The link between poor skills and

joblessness also casts a harsh light on the government's record in education. Despite big spending increases and reams of new initiatives, far too many children still leave school with poor exam grades, undermining their job prospects at the best of times. 但激增的青年人失业率令工党尤为尴尬。97 年大选时，工党竞选的五大目标之一就是促进青年人就业并使 其不再依赖于补助。没有技能就找不到工作，这一点也无情的披露了英国在教育领域的失败。即便政府对 教育加大了资金支持并启动了许多新计划，仍有大批学生由于成绩不过关而辍学，如此，纵使经济运行良 好，他们的就业前景也不容乐观。 Young people are not the only losers from the recession, of course. A report this week from PWC, an accountancy firm, pointed out that people approaching retirement have also suffered a big blow in the falling value of houses and equities. But the plight of the jobless young still arouses a particular concern that transcends politics, evoking talk of a lost generation. For one thing there are worries that crime may increase as a consequence. There is also concern that prolonged unemployment early in people's working lives will leave them scarred in the long term. Youngsters who have been jobless for a year or more tend to do worse in the labour market for the rest of their lives. They deserve a better start. 当然，在这次危机中受到冲击的不仅仅是年轻人。据普华永道会计师事务所(PWC.本周报告显示，由于房 价和股权贬值，即将退休的人员也受到了重创。而有关失业青年的命运则引发了人们政策以外的关切，触 发了有关“迷茫的一代”的讨论。一方面，有人担心青年失业率上升会导致犯罪率上升；另一方面，也有人 担心年轻人在适工年龄长期处于失业状态会给他们心理留下阴影。人们在年轻时若有一年或一年以上无业 的经历，会影响其一生的职业表现。他们应该有个更好的开端。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Separated brothers 分离的兄弟 Latinos and religion 拉美人和信仰 Separated brothers 分离的兄弟 Jul 16th 2009 | LOS ANGELES From The Economist print edition Latinos are changing the nature of American religion 拉丁人正在改变美国宗教的本性 THE church of La Placita, “the little square”, formally called Nuestra Señora Reina de Los Angeles, was founded under Spanish rule at around the same time as the pueblo bearing the same name, the future Los Angeles. As the land on which it stood became first Mexican and then American, it always stayed Latino in both look and character, says Father Richard Estrada. Catholicism and Hispanic culture seemed inseparable there.

Placita 小广场教堂，也就是洛杉矶 Reina 圣母教堂在西班牙的制度下建立，当时洛杉矶市还是一个小镇并 刚刚被命名为洛杉矶。神父 Richard Estrada 说，这片土地先成为墨西哥的一部分，然后又成为美国的一部 分，但在这里一直生活着土生土长的拉美人。那时，天主教和西班牙的文化在这里似乎是不可分离的。 They still largely are. Virtually all Father Estrada's parishioners 教区居民 are Hispanic, most of them of Mexican extraction. When Guatemalan and Salvadorean refugees showed up in the 1980 s, it was natural for them, as good Catholics, to find sanctuary at La Placita, where they slept on the pews and Father Estrada gave them food. It was natural again in 2006, when the country went on an anti-immigrant binge, for many of the Latino counter-marches to start from La Placita. Latinos still come from all over southern California for baptisms and prayer, social services and a sense of community. 他们现在也大致是这样的。在 Richard Estrada 神父教区的所有居民都是说西班牙语的人，大部分是有墨西 哥血统的人。在上世纪八十年代，危地马拉和萨尔瓦多的难民出现在这里的时候，作为良好的天主教徒， 他们很自然地在小广场教堂找到的庇护。他们可以睡在教堂的长凳上，神父 Richard Estrada 向他们提供食 物。所以在 2006 年，当全国掀起一场反对移民的大浪潮时，很自然的，小广场教堂也成为了许多拉美人反 对游行开始的地方。为了洗礼、祷告、社会活动和社区归属感，许多拉美人还是不断地从加州南部的各个 地方不断来到这里。 But more and more grandmothers also come to Father Estrada with worries about children or grandchildren who have become hermanos separados, separated brothers, after defecting to an evangelical church, usually one with a Pentecostal flavour. The converts may have followed one of the evangelicals who come to La Placita to recruit, or friends whom they met at a spiritual rock concert or picnic. “I don't worry, but I find it to be challenging,”says Father Estrada. 但是，许多祖母年纪的人来到 Richard Estrada 神父这里，表示对自己的子孙的担心，因为他们已经变成了 分离的兄弟。他们中的许多已经转投了信福音主义教堂(evangelical：信福音主义，们强调个人只要皈依就 可改变信仰并获得拯救)，一种和圣灵降临节集会有关的信仰(Pentecostal：圣灵降临节的：属于、关于或是 基督徒通过在祭祀中模仿基督使者降临,祈求圣灵充满内心的各种宗教集会)。那些皈依者可能是通过接触来 小广场教堂征募信徒的信福音主义中的一个分支而转变了信仰，或是通过朋友一起参加精神摇滚音乐会和 野餐等接触而转变了信仰。“我不担心，但是我发现这会变得有挑战性，”Richard Estrada 神父说。 Some 68% of Hispanics in America are still Catholic, according to the Pew Research Centre, a think-tank, and their absolute number, thanks to immigration and higher birth rates, continues to increase. But about 15% are now born-again evangelicals, who are fast gaining “market share”, as Gaston Espinosa, a professor of religion at Claremont McKenna College, puts it. He estimates that about 3.9 m Latino Catholics have converted, and that “for every one who comes back to the Catholic church, four leave it.” 根据智囊团皮佑研究中心的数据显示，大约 68%的在美的说西班牙语的人还依然是天主教徒。而且因为移 民和高出生率，绝对的数量还继续上涨。但是， Claremont McKenna 大学的宗教学教授 Gaston Espinosa 指 出，现在大约有 15%的信徒是再生的信福音教徒，他们正在快速的占领“市场”。他估计有大约 390 万拉美 裔天主教徒已经转变了信仰， “每有一个人回到天主教堂，就有四个人离开”。 The main reason, he thinks, is ethnic identity. Evangelical services are not only in Spanish, as many Catholic

sermons are nowadays, but are performed by Latinos rather than Irish or Polish-American priests, with the cadences, rhythms, innuendos and flow familiar from the mother country. The evangelical services tend to be livelier than Catholic liturgy and to last longer, often turning into an outing lasting the whole day. Women play greater roles, and there are fewer parishioners for each pastor than in the Catholic church. 他认为，这种转变主要的原因是种族的同一性。像很多天主教的布道一样，信福音教的活动不仅用西班牙 语，还更多的是由拉美人的牧师布道，而不是爱尔兰裔或波兰裔美国人牧师，用着来自西语国家本土的腔 调、韵律和表达方式。信福音教堂的活动也要比天主教的礼拜活泼很多，并持续时间更长。他们的活动经 常成为一整天的外出活动。女性在活动中也占更重要的地位，而且每位信福音教堂的牧师管理的社区居民 也要比天主教牧师的少。 The evangelical churches are also more “experiential”, says Samuel Rodriguez, a third-generation Puerto Rican Pentecostal pastor and the president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, an evangelical association. In the Catholic church, a believer's relationship with Jesus is mediated through hierarchies and bureaucracies, he says, whereas the evangelical churches provide direct access to Jesus. The Pentecostals go one step further, with the “gifts of the Holy Spirit”(1 Corinthians) letting believers speak in tongues and pray for divine healing. 波多黎各第三代五旬节教派牧师、全国拉美裔基督教徒领导人会议(一个新福音主义协会)主席 Samuel Rodriguez 说，信福音教堂也更有“经验”。他说，在天主教堂，信徒们与上帝的联系中间是有等级层次的， 要通过官僚机构来作用。然而在信福音教堂，信徒能够与上帝直接地联系起来。带着圣灵的礼物(一种柯林 斯式)，五旬节教派能够进一步让信徒与上帝倾诉，并祈祷神的治疗。 “This is the first group in America to reconcile both the vertical and the horizontal parts of the cross,”says Mr Rodriguez. By this he means that the Latino evangelical churches emphasise not only “covenant, faith and righteousness”(the vertical part), as white evangelicals do, but also “community, public policy and social justice” (the horizontal part), as many black evangelicals, but fewer white ones, do. To Latino evangelicals it is all one thing, he says, and the social outreach the church provides goes far beyond any government programme, with pastors snatching young men away from gang life and fighting to uphold the rights of immigrants. Rodriguez 先生说：“在美国，这是第一个教会能同时顺从十字架的水平和垂直的部分。”他的意思是，拉美 人的信福音教堂强调的不仅是“契约、信仰和正义”(垂直部分)，同时还像白人的信福音教堂一样，强调“团 体，国家政策和社会公正”(水平部分)，这一点像很多的黑人信福音教堂，但很少白人教堂两者兼备。他说， 对于拉美人的信福音教堂来说，这是一件事。牧师让年轻人远离黑帮的生活，并为支持移民的权利而战斗， 这些都让教堂所触及到的社会范围远远大于任何政府政策所能做到的。 This also means that Latino evangelicals as a political force are distinct from white evangelicals. Many of the whites have veered hard right, hating abortion and gay marriage and reliably voting Republican, though less so very recently. Latinos tend to be even more pro-life and traditional marriage than whites, says Mr Rodriguez, but only because they know that “mom and dad in the home is the prime antidote to gangs and drugs.”That same pragmatism makes them believe in government services and the taxes that pay for them, and of course in

immigrant rights. As voters, he reckons, Latino evangelicals are therefore the quintessential independents, up for grabs by either party. 这也说明作为一股政治力量，拉美人的信福音教堂较白人的信福音教堂特点突出。许多的白人已经坚定地 转向右派，痛恨堕胎和同性恋婚姻，并是可靠地共和党投票人，尽管最近情况有所转低。拉美人较白人更 加反对堕胎，更倾向于传统的婚姻，Rodriguez 先生说，正是因为他们知道，“在家里的爸爸妈妈才是使孩 子远离黑帮和毒品的最有力的解药”。同样是这样的实用主义使拉美人相信政府公职，相信他们所纳的税是 为了他们自己，当然同时也相信移民的权利。他认为，因此，拉美信福音教徒是无党派人士中的精华，等 着被某一个党派全部拿走。 But it may be American Catholicism that changes the most. About a third of American Catholics are Latino now, and their share is growing. Their influence is not only physical and linguistic, with more of them turning up at church. They are also different Catholics, with more than half describing themselves as “charismatics”, according to the Pew report. Charismatics remain in their traditional denomination, but believe in some aspects of Pentecostalism, such as the gifts of the Holy Spirit, especially the speaking in tongues. 但是，也许美国的天主教才是改变的最多的。现在大约有三分之一的美国天主教徒是拉美人，而且他们的 比例还在增长。随着越来越多的拉美人进入教堂，他们的影响不仅是肉体上和语言上的。据皮佑的报告， 他们同时又是不同的天主教徒，其中有一半以上形容自己为“有神赐能力的人”。这些“有神赐能力的人”依 旧在传统的教派中，但是也信仰五旬节教派的一些方面，如圣灵的礼物，对上帝的诉说。 Latino charismatics see themselves as a renewal movement within Catholicism, as it converges with other churches. And in general all churchgoing Latinos tend to see themselves as renewing Christianity in America. That makes them a powerful force as demographic changes turn America ever more Hispanic, and increasingly different from secular Europe. 拉美的“有神赐能力”的人视自己为天主教中的复兴运动，因为他们与其他教堂有了交合点。并且大体上， 所有去教堂的拉美人都视自己为美国天主教的复兴力量。作为人口统计上的变化，这也让他们成为了一股 强大的力量使美国比以前更加的拉美化，并且不同于世俗的欧洲。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：The decline of the English divorce 英国离婚衰退曲 Social trends 社会潮流 The decline of the English divorce 英国离婚衰退曲 Jul 16th 2009 From The Economist print edition Fewer marriages means stronger ones