The Economist magazine bilingual reading summary

更少的婚姻数意味着更稳固的结合 BEFORE the economy fell apart, it was Britain's society that wassupposed to be in terminal decline, especially in the eyes of theTories. David Cameron, the Conservative Party leader, was wont tobemoan “broken Britain”, mired in moral degeneracy, with high rates ofteenage pregnancy, low rates of marriage and other less quantifiablebreakdowns in the civilised scheme of things. 在经济崩塌之前，英国社会，尤其是在保守派人士看来，正走向末路。“破碎的 英国”，保守党领袖 David Cameron 每每用此语来哀叹英国道德失落的困境，居 高不下的青少年怀孕事件，低迷不振的结婚率和其他不是那么容易用数据可以衡 量的文明的衰败景象。 Such antediluvian worries were raked over again on July 13th when IainDuncan Smith, a former Tory leader, called for an official endorsementof marriage. Mr Duncan Smith cites several reasons to encouragewedlock, including family stability (married couples are much lesslikely to split than cohabiting ones) and healthier children who dobetter in later life. There was talk of state-run counselling, pro-marriage propaganda in schools and mandatory “cooling-off” periodsbefore divorces. Mr Duncan Smith favours tax breaks for marriedcouples, something that Labour has long refused to endorse. 如此先古圣人般的忧虑于本月 13 日再次从历史的旧账中被抖落出来。托利党前 领袖 Iain Duncan Smith 呼吁将婚姻制度写入官方认可。他提到鼓励人们结婚的种 种理由，包括有利于家庭稳定(相比同居，结婚的恋人分开的可能性要小很多)， 有利于培养更健康的孩子和他们今后的发展。先前人们曾讨论由国家举办婚姻咨 询，校内婚前宣传和离婚前的强制“冷静”期等举措。Duncan Smith 先生则更推崇 对结婚夫妇实施赋税减免。只是工党长期来一直拒绝批准该政策。 It is true that marriage is a declining institution. Marriage rates areat their lowest since 1895. But, curiously, those who do marry now staytogether for longer. Divorce rates are falling, not rising, and havebeen for several years. In 2007 11.9 married couples per thousanduntied the knot, down from 12.2 the year before and the lowest since 1981. The time that divorcing couples endure each other before flingingback the rings has lengthened too, from 10.1 years in 1981 to 11.7 in 2007. Indifference towards the sacrament of marriage appears strongestamong the elderly,

not the feckless young. Since 2004, when the overalldivorce rate peaked at 14.1 per thousand, over-60 s have been the onlypart of the population whose rates have continued to rise. 婚姻制度正走向没落，这是事实。如今的结婚率正处于 1895 年以来的最低点。 然而奇怪的是，如今结婚的夫妇比那时相处得更加长久。离婚率正在下降，而非 上升，并且在过去几年中一直如此。2007 年每千对夫妻中有 11.9 对解散他们的 结合，较 06 年的 12.2 有所下降，是 1981 年以来的最低的。同时离婚的夫妇在 相互扔还戒指前忍受对方的时间也有所增加，从 1981 年的 10.1 年上升到 2007 年的 11.7 年。另外，对婚姻誓言的漠视表现得最明显的是老年人，而非扶不起 的年轻一代。自离婚率在 2004 年达到历史最高点每千对 14.1 以来，60 岁以上的 人群是所有年龄段中唯一一个离婚率继续保持上升的。 There are plenty of competing explanations for the diminishing appealof divorce, and no easy way to discover which are true. Immigration mayhave helped, since immigrant families often have more conservativeattitudes than the degenerate natives. Accountants and divorce lawyersreckon a string of recent big settlements may have acted as a deterrent (although it could equally have encouraged the poorer partners infinancially unequal marriages). 有许许多多对离婚的魅惑力日益下降的解释，它们各执一词，难辨真假。移民潮 可能是原因之一，因为移民家庭对婚姻的态度往往比败坏了的英国本土公民更为 保守。会计师和离婚律师则估摸着最近一系列大规模的债务清算起到了震慑作用 (尽管它也可能同时鼓励在经济地位不平等的婚姻中较弱势的一方借机挣脱盟 约) Falling marriage rates and falling divorce rates could be two sides ofthe same coin, says Kathleen Kiernan, a professor of social policy atYork University. The unpopularity of marriage and the relative ease ofdivorce has left only a hard core of stable couples bound in wedlock. And the rise in the average age at which people get married (now 36 formen and 33 for women) is helping too, since older brides and groomstend to stay together longer in any case. If so, politicians should becautious about handing out tax breaks. Even if they work (and MsKiernan thinks they would have to be enormous to have much effect), chivvying unmarried couples into wedlock is likely to mean moredivorces in the future. 而约克角大学的社会政策教授 KathleenKiernan 则表示，结婚率下降和离婚率下 降可看作是同一枚硬币的两面。婚姻的不受欢迎和离婚的相对轻松仅仅筛选、沉 淀下了那些因婚姻而牢牢联系在一起的夫妇成为婚姻队伍里坚不可摧的核心。而 人们平均结婚年龄的上升(男的 36 岁，女的 33 岁)也起了一定作用，因为年龄大 些的新郎新娘不管怎样都会相处得更长久些。如果情况真是如此，那政治家们在 提供赋税减免政策时就要小心了。因为即使政策凑效，将未结婚的恋人们匆匆赶 进婚姻的殿堂很可能意味着未来会有更多的离婚事件。

经济学人杂志双语阅读：Raising Alabama 阿拉巴马，竿头日进 Online education 网络教育 Raising Alabama 阿拉巴马，竿头日进 Jul 16th 2009 | ALEXANDER CITY From The Economist print edition An experiment in levelling the playing field 提高教育水平的试验 ON A sweltering day in Alexander City, Alabama, summer school was in full swing. Two girls were reading “Julius Caesar”as two others wrestled with maths. A boy worked his way through a psychology quiz, and a teacher monitored an online discussion with students from around the state: Was Napoleon the last enlightened despot or the first modern dictator? 这是阿拉巴马州亚历山大市炎热的一天，暑期学校正如火如荼地进行着。两名女生正读着《凯撒大帝》， 而另外两名女生正为着数学题目绞尽脑汁。一个男生正在努力地坐着他的心理测试，而一名老师正在线上 组织着来自全州各地的同学进行讨论：拿破仑是最后一个开明的君主还是第一个现代独裁者？ This is not a traditional classroom scene, but it has become common enough in Alabama. The state has many small, rural schools. Because of their size, and the relative scarcity of specialised teachers, course offerings have been limited. Students might have had to choose between chemistry or physics, or stop after two years of Spanish. But thanks to an innovative experiment with online education, the picture has changed dramatically. 这并非是一个传统课堂的景象，但是在阿拉巴马州来说这最普通不过了。该州拥有多家小的乡村学校。由 于它们规模较小，又相应地缺乏专业教师，课程的开设受到了一定程度的限制。学生们不得不在化学和物 理中二选一，或者放弃学习了两年的西班牙语。但是，多亏了在线教育这一新试验，这一情况得到明显改 善。 In 2005 the governor, Bob Riley, announced a pilot programme called Alabama Connecting Classrooms Educators and Students Statewide, or ACCESS. The idea was to use internet and videoconferencing technology to link students in one town to teachers in another. It was something of a pet cause for Mr Riley, who comes from a rural county himself. He was especially keen that students should have a chance to learn Chinese. 2005 年，该州州长鲍伯莱利推行了一名为“阿拉巴马州全州教育网络化”或“联网”的项目。该项目旨在使用 英特网及视频会议技术来连接处在不同地方的学生和老师。对于同样出身于乡村的莱利来说，在某种程度 上这是一项嗜好。他曾经非常渴望学生们能有机会学习中文。 There were sceptics. The pilot programme cost $10 m, not pocket change in a poor state. Teachers worried about how they would connect to their virtual students. But ACCESS quickly became a hit. In 2006 students took more

than 4,000 courses at 24 schools. In 2008, with ACCESS now in more schools, the number exceeded 22,000. Administrators are finding new ways to liven up the experience. Last year a dozen schools went on a “virtual field trip”to Antarctica, with scientists beamed in by satellite, and a school in Birmingham has been liaising with a counterpart in Wales. 怀疑派者认为这项试验项目花费了一千万美元，这对一个不太富裕的州来说并不是一比小数目。老师们也 曾担心怎样在网上与他们的学校交流。但“联网”项目迅速打响了第一炮。2006 年，24 所学校的学生接受了 超过 4000 门课程。到 2008 年，随着“联网”项目普及到更多的学校，这一数字达到了 22，000 人。政府官 员们正想出了一些新的方法来使此项目办得更加有声有色。去年，12 所学校的学生与科学家们通过卫星连 接，一道体验了南极“虚拟户外教学”，而伯明翰的一所学校还与位于威尔士的一所学校通过网络连接成兄 弟院校。 As for the goal of levelling the academic playing field, the state is pleased so far. Mark Dixon, the governor's adviser for education, says that several years ago fewer than half of Alabama's public high schools offered any college-level Advanced Placement (AP) courses. As of this summer, they all will; ACCESS is being extended to all the state's schools. 对于实现专业学术水平的目标，到目前为止的情况还是令人满意的。该州州长的教育顾问马克•狄克逊表示， 几年以前不到一半的阿拉巴马州的公立高中可以为学生提供美国“高考”(AP 考试)的有关课程。而今年夏天， 所有高中都将拥有这项课程；“联网”项目已经推广到该州的所有学校。 Joe Morton, the state superintendent of schools, points to the number of black students taking AP courses. In 2003, according to the College Board, just 4.5% of Alabama's successful AP students (those who passed the subject exam) were black. In 2008 the number was up to 7.1%. There is still a staggering gap-almost a third of the state's students are black-but the improvement in Alabama was the largest in the country over that period. “That makes it all worthwhile right there,”says Mr Morton. 该州教育官员乔•默顿提到了修读 AP 课程的黑人学生数目。根据美国大学理事会数据显示，2003 年，在阿 拉巴马州仅有 4.5%的“高考”成功学生(即通过学术考试的学生)为黑人。而到 2008 年，这项数据已经上升到 7.1%。虽然这与该州三分之一的学生为黑人还是有差距的，但在过去的这段时间中，阿拉巴马州已经是全 国进步最快的了。莫顿说：“这使得所有努力都是值得的。” 经济学人杂志双语阅读：A mountain of trouble 是非之地 Russia's north Caucasus 俄罗斯北高加索地区 A mountain of trouble 是非之地 Jul 16th 2009 | MOSCOW

From The Economist print edition The north Caucasus continues to suffer kidnappings, torture and killings on a horrifying scale 北高加索地区绑架、虐待、谋杀事件数量之巨令人发指 印古什日常生活一瞥 ON JULY 7 th, as Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev discussed world security in the Kremlin, people charged with security in Chechnya kidnapped a local man and his son. Twelve hours later the man was dragged from a car in his underwear and executed before a few villagers. And this was but one of many punitive actions taken by Chechen authorities against relatives of alleged rebels. 7 月 7 日，当巴拉克•奥巴马和德米特里•梅德韦杰夫在克里姆林宫讨论世界安全问题之际，车臣的地方安全 人员绑架了当地的一名男人及其儿子。12 个小时后，他们把被剥得只剩一条内裤的男人从车里拖出来，在 几个村民面前处死了他。这样的惩罚行为已经不是头一遭了，车臣当局正是用这种方式处理了许多被认为 是反叛分子的人。 It was brought to light by Natalia Estemirova, a human-rights activist who has chronicled kidnappings, torture and killings for a decade on behalf of Memorial, Russia's oldest human-rights group. Ms Estemirova received prizes in Europe, but no thanks from her government. On July 15 th, as she left home in Chechnya, she herself was kidnapped. A few hours later she was found dead in neighbouring Ingushetia. Her hands were tied and she had two bullets in her head and chest. 这起事件是由人权活动家娜塔莉亚•爱斯特米洛娃揭发的，她是俄罗斯最早的人权组织“纪念”的成员。10 多 年来，她一直坚持记录该地区发生的绑架、虐待及谋杀事件，欧洲方面曾数次给她颁发人权奖，但是俄罗 斯政府从未对她的工作表示过一丝感激之情。7 月 15 日，爱斯特米洛娃在离开车臣的家时被绑架。几个小 时后，有人在印古什发现了她的尸体，她双手被绑，身中两枪，一枪在头部，一枪在胸部。 Ms Estemirova's murder topped the headlines of foreign television networks, but was mentioned only in passing by Russian channels, despite a prompt condemnation from Mr Medvedev. Her colleagues say that her work had outraged Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechnya's president. They blame him for her murder (though Mr Kadyrov pledged to

lead the investigation into her murder himself). 爱斯特米洛娃遇害的消息占据了国外各电视台的头条，而在俄罗斯国内，虽然梅德韦杰夫迅速对此事发表 了强烈谴责，但这条新闻在俄罗斯电视节目中仅仅是被一笔带过。爱斯特米洛娃的同事称，她的工作惹恼 了车臣总统拉姆赞•卡德罗夫，而后者选择了灭口。但是卡德罗夫却发誓，他将亲自领导对爱斯特米洛娃遇 害一案的调查工作。 Chechnya is no longer considered a “zone of a counter-terrorist operation”. This status was removed a few months ago at the request of Mr Kadyrov. Since then the number of disappearances, house burnings and killings has risen. Even before Ms Estemirova's murder, Ekaterina Sokiryanskaya, a colleague, talked of escalating fear in the region and pressure on human-rights activists. “Natalia [Estemirova], who tried to fight the victims' cases, was braver than many of the relatives,”she said after the murder. Fear and force have been Mr Kadyrov's main tools of governance. As a former rebel, he has coerced those who fought alongside him and got rid of those who opposed him. He has turned Chechnya into his fief, more Russia's ally than its subject. 应卡德罗夫几个月前的请求，车臣已经将扣在头上的“反恐活动地区”帽子摘了下来。但是自从那时开始， 车臣地区的失踪、纵火、谋杀案件数量就一直在攀升。爱斯特米洛娃遇害之前，其同事叶卡捷琳娜•索奇仁 斯卡娅就曾谈及车臣地区恐惧的升级和人权活动者的压力。爱斯特米洛娃遇害后，索奇仁斯卡娅这样描述 自己的同事：“娜塔莉亚(即爱斯特米洛娃)希望为那些受害者尽一份力，她比很多人都勇敢。”制造恐惧和暴 力镇压一直是卡德罗夫统治车臣的两大法宝，这个前反叛分子用铁腕牢牢掌控着跟自己打江山的人，并除 掉胆敢跟自己作对的人。卡德罗夫已经把车臣变成了自己的领地，现在的车臣看起来更像是俄罗斯的盟国， 而不是加盟共和国。 Across the region, killings and kidnappings have become common. Ingushetia has descended into what amounts to a civil war, says Grigory Shvedov of Caucasian Knot, an independent news service. The killing of policemen has become systematic. In an especially daring attack on June 22 nd, rebels used a suicide-bomber to try to kill Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, Ingushetia's president. His driver and a bodyguard were killed; he is still in hospital. A Chechen group involved in the Beslan school siege in 2004 took responsibility and its leader promised more attacks. Nobody knows how many rebels there are in Ingushetia or neighbouring Dagestan. Many are local and young, born when Russia first went to war in Chechnya in 1994, says Mr Shvedov. 在车臣地区，谋杀和绑架是家常便饭。独立新闻机构“高加索之结”的格利高里•什韦多夫称，目前的印古什 地区相当于陷入了内战状态。反叛分子有组织有计划地谋杀警察。而在 6 月 22 日，他们还极其肆无忌惮地 制造了一次恐怖事件-试图用自杀炸弹袭击谋杀印古什总统尤努斯•贝克•叶夫库罗夫，造成总统司机及保镖 身亡，而总统本人目前还在医院接受治疗。一个与 2004 年别斯兰中学人质事件有牵连的车臣组织宣称对该 事件负责，其领导人还叫嚣要制造更多的袭击。没有人知道印古什及达吉斯坦境内反叛分子的确切数量。 什韦多夫称，很多反叛分子是当地的年轻人，他们大多是在 1994 年俄罗斯与车臣开战之际出生的。 Russia's brutal repression and lawlessness have pushed people towards Islamic fundamentalism. The rebels are now driven not by ideas of independence but by revenge or the vision of an Islamist state. Their influence has become especially visible in Ingushetia. “People are afraid to go out in the evening, cafés are closed, there are fire exchanges almost every night,”says Ms Sokiryanskaya.

俄罗斯的血腥镇压及法律的缺失使人们陷入了伊斯兰原教旨主义。反叛分子不是被要求独立的思想所驱使， 而是被仇恨和建立伊斯兰州的追求所驱使。他们的恶劣影响在印古什体现得非常明显-索奇仁斯卡娅称：“在 晚上，人们害怕出门，咖啡店大门紧闭，因为每晚都有交火事件。” Mr Yevkurov, a paratrooper, inherited a corrupt and weak government from his predecessor, a KGB general named Murat Zyazikov. His first steps were encouraging: he unearthed corruption, engaged with opposition leaders and began to fight against armed rebels. He also insisted that Russia's federal forces should not carry out “special operations”in Ingushetia without his knowledge. But this has had little effect, says Ms Sokiryanskaya. “They simply do not know any other way,”she explains. 当过伞兵的叶夫库罗夫从其前任-克格勃将军穆拉特•查基科夫的手中接过了一个腐败和脆弱的政府。上任 后，他实施了一系列令人鼓舞的措施：整治腐败；与反对派领导人合作打击武装叛乱分子；未经自己了解， 俄罗斯联邦部队不能在印古什开展“特别行动”。但索奇仁斯卡娅认为，叶夫库罗夫的这些措施均收效甚微， 她表示：“除此之外，他们就没别的法子了。” The Kremlin likes to blame Western security services for destabilising the region. Some Russian security men also blame Georgia's president, Mikheil Saakashvili. “For as long as people like Saakashvili-the neo-Nazis and neo-Führers-lead neighbouring states, we will not be in peace,”Arkady Yedelev, Russia's deputy interior minister, said recently. 克里姆林宫喜欢指责西方安全机构破坏了这些地区的稳定。一些俄罗斯安全官员还把矛头指向了格鲁吉亚 总统米哈伊尔•萨卡什维利。俄罗斯内务部副部长阿尔卡季•叶德列夫近期称：“如果人们继续支持新纳粹党 人、新'元首'萨卡什维利执政的话，我们就不可能拥有和平。” Russia's large-scale “Caucasus 2009”military manoeuvres were held under the banner of fighting terrorism. Mr Medvedev, who inspected the Russian units, explicitly linked the exercises to last year's war in Georgia. “The main lesson for us from these events is the necessity to hold fully fledged, ongoing and highly effective exercises,” he said this week, a day after visiting South Ossetia, which Russia (almost alone) recognises as independent. This came only a few days after Mr Obama said that America recognises Georgia's territorial integrity and does not want a renewal of military conflict. To ram that message home, an American warship arrived in Georgia this week to hold the first joint exercise since the end of last August's war. Joe Biden, America's vice-president, is expected to visit Tbilisi shortly. 高举着反恐旗帜，俄罗斯进行了名为“高加索 2009”的大规模军事演习。检阅了俄罗斯三军的梅德韦杰夫很 直白地将本次军演与去年的格俄冲突联系到了一起。本周，在访问南奥塞梯(几乎只有俄罗斯承认了它的独 立)的前一天，梅德韦杰夫发表言论：“我们(从格俄冲突中)学到的是，持续进行成熟高效的军事演习是十分 有必要的。”而在几天前，奥巴马刚表示，美国尊重格鲁吉亚的领土完整，不希望格俄军事冲突重演。作为 对这番言论的呼应，一艘美国军舰本周抵达了格鲁吉亚，参与了自去年八月格俄冲突以来的第一次美格联 合军演。美国副总统乔•拜登将于近期出访第比利斯。 The south Caucasus remains so tense that the European Union has delayed its report into the origins of the Georgia war, which was to have been published at the end of July. But even as the world's attention is fixed on Georgia, Russian citizens keep dying in the north Caucasus. Vladimir Putin, Russia's prime minister, once promised to hang

Mr Saakashvili “by the balls”. Sadly he seems to have no such feeling for those who killed Ms Estemirova. 南高加索地区的局势如此紧张，以致于欧盟推迟发布本应在 7 月底见诸于世、调查格俄冲突起因的报告。 但是，正当世界的目光都集中在格鲁吉亚的时候，北高加索地区的俄罗斯民众却在无辜丧生。俄罗斯总理 弗拉基米尔•普京曾称，绞死萨卡什维利简直是“易如反掌”。可悲的是，他似乎没想到用同样的手段来对付 杀害爱斯特米洛娃的凶手。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Iceland and the European Union 冰岛与欧盟 Iceland and the European Union 冰岛与欧盟 All things to Althing 阿耳庭的一切 Jul 23rd 2009 | REYKJAVIK From The Economist print edition Three big obstacles stand in the way of Iceland's EU membership 冰岛加入欧盟的三大阻碍 The fish may not enjoy the European Union 鱼儿们大概不喜欢欧盟 ON JULY 16th Iceland's Althingi, or parliament, voted by 33 to 28 to apply to join the European Union. This is the biggest step taken by the Social Democrat/Left Green coalition led by Johanna Sigurdardottir since it was formed in May. But in truth the path to both EU membership and the euro will be rocky and uncertain. 7 月 16 日，冰岛在阿耳庭，即议会以 33 比 28 投票决定申请加入欧盟。这是 Johanna 领导的社会民主党， 即左绿联盟自五月成立以来最重大的举动。然而，加入欧盟之路实为荆棘之旅，前途未卜。 There is heady talk of Iceland's application being “fast-tracked”. The country has been an associate member of the European Economic Area (EEA. since 1994, so it already meets most EU membership requirements. If all goes well, say optimists, Iceland's application could catch up with Croatia's, leading to membership in late 2012 or early 2013. 性急者扬言冰岛申请入欧将很快成功。冰岛早在 1994 年就已是欧洲经济区成员，因而其符合欧盟对其成员 国的绝大部分要求。乐观者认为，顺利的话，冰岛可能会领先克罗地亚于 2012 年末或 2013 年初入欧。 Yet three obstacles loom ahead. First is the EU's notorious common fisheries policy, which would give other EU members access to Iceland's fish. There are get-outs for traditional fishing grounds, but they may be hard to invoke. Students of past “cod wars”with Britain will be aware of Icelanders' determination to protect national assets, but given that it is the Icelanders who are demandeurs they may have to compromise. 然而，三大阻碍也迎面而来。阻碍一：欧盟臭名昭著的共同捕渔政策，其代表欧盟成员国将可以到冰岛捕 鱼。有呼声要求开放传统渔场，但难以奏效。经历过英、冰鳕鱼之战的人均知道冰岛人捍卫国家财产的决 心。但既然冰岛人是需求方，也许他们不得不做出妥协。 The second problem is the economy, the shocking state of which has forced the decision to apply to the EU. The

budget deficit is running at 13% of GDP; public debt is well over 100%. The Icelandic krona has lost half its value against the euro since January 2008. Iceland's credit rating is close to junk. All this will make it hard to meet the Maastricht criteria for joining the euro. This week some German politicians muttered that Iceland should not get in until it sorted out its economy. Dutch ministers also linked Iceland's bid to the Althingi's approval of a bank-rescue plan (see article). 阻碍二：经济。冰岛可怕的经济情况迫使其申请入欧。财政赤字达国民生产总值的 13%；公共债务超过 100%； 自 2008 年 1 月冰岛克朗较欧元贬值了一半。冰岛信用评级接近垃圾。上述情况使得冰岛的很难达到马斯特 里赫特标准，从而加入欧盟。本周，有些德国政治家抱怨要求冰岛不得在实现经济复苏前加入欧盟。荷兰 部长也将冰岛此举与阿耳庭银行援救计划联系在一起。 Third and most awkward, a referendum will have to approve Iceland's EU membership. Yet a recent poll shows popular support dropping from 58% last October to only 38% today. Many Icelanders see the EU rules they had to adopt in the EEA as one cause of the economic collapse; most dislike the fisheries policy. Critics of EU membership, led by the Independence Party, will find it easy to stir opposition. Iceland's cousins in Norway have twice negotiated to join, only for the voters to say no. There is every risk that Iceland may follow suit. 阻碍三，也是最大的阻碍，冰岛申请入欧需要公众投票表决。然而，最近的一次投票显示，民众支持率去 年 8 月为 58%，如今下降到只有 38%。不少冰岛人认为欧洲经济区采取的欧盟规定是造成其经济崩溃的一 个原因；绝大部分人则厌恶捕鱼政策。独立党领导的对欧盟成员国的批判会轻易激起反面意见。冰岛的近 邻-挪威已经两度与试图加入(欧盟)，但都以选民反对告终。而冰岛政府极有危险陷入诉讼。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Virtual worlds for children 孩子们的虚拟世界 Online playgrounds 线上游戏世界 Jul 23rd 2009 From The Economist print edition There is life in virtual reality after all 毕竟，虚拟生活也是一种生活 REMEMBER Second Life, the virtual world that was supposed to become almost as important as the first one? Now populated by no more than 84,000 avatars at a time, it has turned out to be a prime example of how short-lived internet fads can be. Yet if many adults seem to have given up on virtual worlds, those that cater to children and teenagers are thriving. Several have even found a way to make money. 还记得《第二人生》吗，那个曾经被认为将会与现实生活同样重要的虚拟世界？但现在，其同时在线人数 最多不超过 8 万 4 千人，这又是一起网络短时跟风的鲜明事例。如果说许多成年人看起来好像已经脱离了 网络游戏，那么那些能够迎合儿童和青少年口味的网络游戏却正在日益繁茂中。它们中的有些甚至已经找

到了可以实现盈利的商业模式。 In America, nearly 10 m children and teenagers visit virtual worlds regularly, estimates eMarketer, a market researcher-a number the firm expects to increase to 15 m by 2013. As of January, there were 112 virtual worlds designed for under-18 s with another 81 in development, according to Engage Digital Media, a market research firm. 在美国，将近有一千万的儿童和青少年定期登录各种网络游戏，伊玛克(eMarketer,一个市场研究公司)估计， 到 2013 年该人数将上升至一千五百万人。根据 EDM (Engage Digital Media,一个市场调研公司)的统计，截 至今年 1 月，已经有 112 款为 18 岁(含)以下儿童设计的虚拟游戏诞生，同时，另外 81 款正在紧锣密鼓的 开发中。 All cater to different age groups and tastes. In Club Penguin, the market leader, which was bought by Disney in 2007 for a whopping $700 m, primary-school children can take on a penguin persona, fit out their own igloo and play games. Habbo Hotel, a service run from Finland, is a global hangout for teenagers who want to customise their own rooms and meet in public places to attend events. Gaia Online, based in Silicon Valley, offers similar activities, but is visited mostly by older teens who are into Manga comics. 这些游戏合起来可以满足各种年龄层和不同口味群体的偏好。在《企鹅俱乐部》(Club Penguin,游戏市场的 领先者)这款游戏里，国小的小朋友们不仅能够穿上企鹅伪装服，装备他们自己的小冰屋，还能够玩各种各 样的游戏。哈伯饭店(Habbo Hotel)，来自于芬兰的线上服务，成为了全球青少年聚集的巢穴。利用这项服 务，青少年们可以定制自己的房间，也能够参与到公共事件中去。《盖亚 Online》(Gaia Online)，诞生于硅 谷，也提供了相似的服务，但是他的用户群集中在年龄稍长的青少年中，他们往往非常热爱日本动漫。 Not a hit with advertisers, these online worlds earn most of their money from the sale of virtual goods, such as items to spruce up an avatar or a private room. They are paid for in a private currency, which members earn by participating in various activities, trading items or buying them with real dollars. 然而，这些游戏并不能提起广告商的兴趣，因为这些线上世界的利润来源是虚拟物品的销售，这些物品包 括角色使用的各种装备以及整理私人房间的器具。它们往往用虚拟货币支付，这些货币可以通过参与丰富 多彩的活动、虚拟交易和付出真实美元来获得。 This sort of stealth tax seems to work. At Gaia Online, users spend more than $1 m per month on virtual items, says Craig Sherman, the firm's chief executive. Running such a virtual economy is not easy, which is why Gaia has hired a full-time economist to grapple with problems that are well known in the real world, such as inflation and an unequal distribution of wealth. 这种隐匿负担[1]的机制似乎工作得很好。《盖亚 Online》的游戏运营商董事长克雷格·谢尔曼(Craig Sherman) 表示，用户们每月在虚拟物品上的花费超过一百万美元。然而，让这样一个庞大的虚拟经济体运转并不是 件容易的事，所以他们不得不聘请全职的经济学家来处理各种我们在现实世界中都会遇到的疑难问题，比 如通货膨胀和财富分配不均。 There are other barriers that could limit the growth of virtual worlds for the young, but the main one is parents. Many do not want their offspring roaming virtual worlds, either because they are too commercial or are thought to be too dangerous. Keeping them safe is one of the biggest running costs, because their sponsors have to employ

real people to police their realms. 当然，许多制约因素都能够抑制青少年级虚拟游戏的增长，但主要的压力来自父母。很多家长都不愿意他 们的孩子游弋于虚拟游戏的世界中，一方面是因为这些游戏过于商业化很费钱，另一方面这些虚拟世界也 显得异常危险。让这些游戏环境变得安全是一件十分烧钱的事情，因为它们的运营商不得不雇佣真人来管 理自己建立起来的王国。 Youngsters are also a fickle bunch, says Simon Levene of Accel Partners, a venture-capital firm. Just as children move from one toy to another, they readily switch worlds or social networks, often without saying goodbye. 阿塞尔伙伴公司(风险投资商)的西门·莱文表示，年青人是一群让人捉摸不定者，就像儿童们对玩具喜新厌 旧一般，他们时刻准备着切换自己主攻的游戏世界或者社交网络，常常一声招呼都不打，毫无留恋之意。 Even so, Debra Aho Williamson, an analyst at eMarketer, believes “these worlds are a training ground for the three-dimensional web”. If virtual worlds for adults, which so far have been able to retain only hardcore users, manage to hang on for a few years, they may yet have a second life. 即使是这样，伊玛克(eMarketer)公司的分析师黛布拉·阿霍·威廉姆斯(Debra Aho Williamson)也相信“这些虚 拟游戏正是迈向三维网络世界的必经通路”。如果那些迄今为止只能够抓住核心用户的成人虚拟游戏还能够 再坚持几年的话，它们也许还能迎来自己的第二春吧。 [1]隐匿负担：直译的词，是指利用不让人们接触纸币的方式来完成交易，从而鼓励多消费，典型的例子是 信用卡。其心理学依据是，当人们进行交易时，如果手能够亲自接触通货，人们会产生惜买的情绪。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Towers of debt 债“塔”高筑 The collapse in commercial property 商用物业价格暴跌 Towers of debt 债“塔”高筑 Jul 30th 2009 From The Economist print edition Concerns are switching from the residential to the commercial sector 市场焦虑从住宅物业向商用物业转移

FROM a distance Potsdamer Platz looks a bit like its old self. Once the central hub of Berlin, before it was turned into a rubble-strewn no-man's-land divided by the Wall, it is now surrounded by shiny new towers. Get a little closer, however, and it becomes clear that many buildings are just façades painted onto giant hoardings that rise ten stories high between actual office blocks. 远观波茨坦广场，似乎其依然保持旧时姿态。作为昔日柏林的中心枢纽(其后沦为被柏林墙一分为二、碎石 散落的死亡地带)，波茨坦广场四周正环绕着许多金光闪闪地大楼。然而近看才发现，许多的大楼不过是画 在立于各商业办公大楼间高达十多层楼的巨型围板上的画作罢了。 This subterfuge makes for a far more pleasant view than that provided by vacant lots. It also points to an unusual degree of restraint among developers in Europe's second-largest property market (by transactions). The commercial-property market in most other parts of the developed world is in deep trouble. 虽然这花招使得空荡荡的土地看起来让人赏心悦目多了。但它同时也暗示着欧洲开发商们对第二大房地产 交易市场正“按兵不动”着。商用物业市场在发达国家其他地区正深陷困境。 Unlike other property busts, this downturn has not been driven by speculative overbuilding but by investors' overenthusiasm. Commercial property was a popular asset class for much of this decade. Institutional investors who lost a lot of money when the dotcom bubble burst were persuaded that switching from the stockmarket into property would diversify their portfolios and reduce their risk. Cheap finance was plentiful. Investors could indulge in a version of the “carry trade”-borrowing at a low interest rate to buy buildings and counting on the rental yield and capital growth to more than cover their financing costs. 与其他房地产商破产情况不同，这一低迷的市场情况并非由投机过热所造成的，而是因为投资者反应冷淡。 对于这大半个十年来说，商用物业无疑是一热门的资产类别。当各机构投资者因房产泡沫沫破灭而失去大 量资金时，许多人都劝说他们将投资从股票市场转向房地产业，这样可以使其投资结构多样化而减少风险。 廉价融资的情况随处可见。投资者可投身于其中一种“套利交易”-投资者通过借贷以低利率购买房屋，并依

靠租金收益及资金增长直至超过其融资成本。 That strategy looked smart when rents and capital values were rising and vacancy rates were low. But as cheap financing has dried up and economies have tumbled into recession, investors have become badly exposed. According to Marcus & Millichap, an estate agent, the office-vacancy rate in Manhattan climbed by more than three percentage points in the first half of the year, to 11.2%. As tenants have disappeared, rents have fallen too-by 16% over the past year, Marcus & Millichap reckons. 在租金和资金价值上扬及房屋空置率低时，这一办法看上去确实不失为一智计。但是，随着廉价融资的枯 竭以及经济陷入衰退期，投资者的错误严重暴露出来。地产代理公司 Marcus & Millichap 调查指出，今年 第一季度曼哈顿办公室空置率达 11.2%，上升百分之三点多。Marcus & Millichap 预测，随着住户的减少， 租金也已降低至去年同期的 16%。 Property prices have also been badly hit. Moody's, a rating agency, estimates that American commercial-property prices dropped by 7.6% in May alone, leaving them almost 35% below their peak in October 2007. Prices would have gone down even further had not transactions dried to a trickle (see chart). Owners are loth to sell into a falling market, although some distressed sales are occurring. 物业价格也受到严重影响。穆迪氏投资服务公司最新报告显示,美国商业地产价格 5 月下跌 7.6％，比 2007 年 10 月最高点下降 35％，价格可能正在触底(见表格)。尽管发展商们不愿意在价格下跌的情况下低价出售， 但仍有一些不得不痛心卖出物业。 All this sounds like a replay of the downturn in the residential-property market, where easy borrowing terms allowed homebuyers to push prices to extreme levels. To add to the sense of déjàvu, property loans have also been bundled into complex financial instruments, known as commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBSs). The riskiest of these, mainly those issued between 2005 and 2007, are now running into trouble. 所有这些似乎都像是住宅物业市场低迷情况的再现，宽松的借贷条件使得购房者们将价格推向极端。为了 营造似曾相识的感觉，许许多多的贷款还被捆绑在一起催生出复杂难以操作的证券，即按揭贷款支持的商 业证券(CMBSs)。其中最高风险性的要数于 2005 至 2007 年间发行的多数证券，而这些现在正处于重重困 境中的各大证券。 Realpoint, a credit-rating agency, says that nearly $29 billion of CMBSs, around 3.5% of the total, have become

delinquent (ie, borrowers have not kept up interest payments) in the past 12 months. It thinks the delinquency rate could reach 6% by the end of the year. Richard Parkus of Deutsche Bank reckons the default rate could eventually reach 12%. Together with bad construction loans, that could push the losses of American banks on commercial property to $200 billion-230 billion. Many small banks will go under as a result. 信贷评级机构 Realpoint 表示，在过去的 12 个月里已有近 290 亿美元，约占整体的 3.5%的商业抵押担保证 券贷款成为拖欠账款(借款人没有按时交纳利息)。该机构认为到今年年底，拖欠率有可能达到 6%。德意志 银行的理查德.帕克斯表示商业抵押担保证券违约率最终将达到 12%。商业抵押担保贷款违约率升高连同不 良建筑业贷款一起，可能将造成美国银行在商业物业上损失两千到两千三百亿美元。而许多小银行将因此 破产。 European banks are exposed to property, too. The good news is that the two biggest euro-zone economies, France and Germany, have seen only modest declines in rents and prices. But one of Italy's biggest property companies, Risanamento, is fighting to stave off its creditors. And pain is being felt all around the periphery of the euro area. In Spain (see article) and Ireland vacancies are surging, property prices are plummeting and cranes are standing idle. 同时，欧洲各银行也面临房产问题。值得庆幸的是世界上最大的两个欧元经济区欧洲和德国，目前仅看到 租金和售价的小幅走低。不过，意大利最大的地产公司之一的 Risanamento 正想尽办法逃避其债主们。并 且欧元区的外围地区也已经开始对这一问题感到头疼了。在西班牙和爱尔兰，房屋空置量激增、房地产价 格暴跌而工地上的起重机也不过在那“袖手旁观”。 Prices are plunging across central and eastern Europe, too, although the volume of transactions remains slim. Yields in many of these markets were driven down by hopes that they would, in time, converge with those in mature European markets. Vacancy rates in cities such as Budapest have surged to about 15% while those in Prague have almost doubled (to roughly 10%) over the past year. Some of the biggest falls in rents are taking place in Russia. Rents in Moscow have fallen by 63% in the 12 months to the end of June although they are still the third-highest in Europe (after the West End in London, and Paris). With almost one-fifth of office space empty, further falls in rents and prices seem likely. 尽管房产价格下挫也遍布整个欧洲的中部和东部，但交易量仍然微乎其微。这一市场交易量下跌是因为该 地区投资者们希望他们假以时日能与欧洲成熟市场保持一致。在过去的一年里，布达佩斯等城市的房屋空 置率已飙升至 15%，而布拉格的空置率已经翻了一番(大约 10%)。租金下降率最大的城市在俄罗斯。欧洲 排名第三高的莫斯科(位列伦敦西区和巴黎之后)的房屋租金在到 6 月为止的 12 个月里下滑了 63%。随着近 五分之一的办公物业空闲，房屋租金及售价有可能进一步走低。 Asia has not been spared either. The worst-affected property markets in the region have been financial centres such as Singapore and Hong Kong. Shrivelling bank balance-sheets have meant shrinking demand for office space, as armies of bankers have lost their jobs. Singapore's swankiest business district led the retreat in office rents across the region, shedding more than half between June 2008 and June 2009, according to Cushman & Wakefield, a consultancy. Hong Kong was not far behind with a 43% drop in the same period. Mumbai (down by 40%) and Shanghai (32%) were the next hardest hit.

亚洲也没有逃脱房产市场下滑这一魔掌。像新加坡、香港这样的金融中心为该地区受波及最严重的物业市 场。随着银行大军的失业，银行存款余额萎缩意味着办公空间需求量减少。高纬物业顾问有限公司表示， 新加坡优质办公室区带头在亚洲降低办公司租金，在 2008 年 6 月到 2009 年 6 月间暴跌近一半以上。同期， 香港以 43%的下跌率紧随其后。孟买(40%)及上海(32%)位居其后。 There are some signs that the speed of the downward adjustment is slowing. In Hong Kong, office rents in the prime central district declined by 20.1% in the first quarter. The fall was much more moderate, but still 10.4%, in the second. Looking ahead, Singapore seems particularly dicey, because 8.3 m square feet (770,000 square metres) of new office space will be coming into the market by 2013. According to CLSA, a broking firm, oversupply will also weigh heavily on office property in China. Vacancy rates in Shanghai and Beijing could rise to 35% in 2010 from around 17% and 22% respectively today. 有迹象表明，房价下跌速度正在放缓。第一季度香港中心城区办公租金下降 20.1%。第二季度虽下跌 10.4%， 但已温和得多。而向前看，新加坡显得尤为冒险，到 2013 年，其有近 830 万平方英尺(约 77 万平方米)的 新办公空间将投入市场。据里昂证券经纪公司表示，供过于求的现象也将加重中国办公物业的压力。到 2010 年，上海和北京的办公物业空置率将分别从现在的 17%和 22%上扬至 35%。 A year ago everyone was worried about losses on residential-property loans. If the latest data are any guide, both American and British house prices may be finding a bottom. Concerns are now switching to the commercial sector. History suggests downturns in that market last for years, rather than months. Almost 20 years have passed since the Japanese property market peaked. Prices still fell by 4.7% last year. 一年以前，每个人都担心在住宅物业贷款上的损失。如果近期数据具有指向作用，那么美国和英国的房产 价格正在触底。焦虑现在被转移到了商业部门上。历史提醒我们，商业房产市场的低迷时期将通常持续几 年，而非几月了事。日本物业市场顶峰期已过去将近 20 年了，但去年价格仍然下降了 4.7%。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Rise of the machines 机器为王 High-frequency trading 高频交易 Rise of the machines 机器为王(注 1) Jul 30th 2009 From The Economist print edition Algorithmic trading causes concern among investors and regulators 算法交易引起投资者与监管者的关注 THE arrest of a former Goldman Sachs employee in July for allegedly stealing the firm's proprietary computer codes thrust the arcane world of high-frequency trading (HFT) into the spotlight. The glare of attention is

intensifying. High-frequency traders are essential providers of liquidity-accounting for roughly 50% of trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange-and can claim to have squashed bid-ask spreads. But many claim HFT comes at the price of gouging other investors. 七月，一名前高盛员工因涉嫌盗窃该公司专有的计算机代码而被捕，这一事件将神秘的高频交易(HFT)世界 推到了聚光灯下。而且人们对它的关注度还在不断的增强。高频交易者是市场流动性的主要提供者-约占到 了纽交所交易量的 50%-而且声称可以弥合买卖之间的价差。但是很多高频交易主要是用来欺骗其他投资者 的。 The basic idea of HFT is to use clever algorithms and super-fast computers to detect and exploit market movements. To avoid signalling their intentions to the market, institutional investors trade large orders in small blocks-often in lots of 100 to 500 shares-and within specified price ranges. High-frequency traders attempt to uncover how much an investor is willing to pay (or sell for) by sending out a stream of probing quotes that are swiftly cancelled until they elicit a response. The traders then buy or short the targeted stock ahead of the investor, offering it to them a fraction of a second later for a tiny profit. 高频交易的基本原理是利用巧妙的算法与超高速计算机来侦测并利用市场的动向。为了避免暴露自身的意 图，机构投资者会将大单交易分割为小块来完成-往往是大量指定价格范围内的 100 至 500 股。高频交易者 试图利用一连串的试探性报价(会立即撤销的定单)来获知投资者希望在什么价位买进(或卖出)股票。而后， 他们先于投资者买入(或卖空)该股票再马上转手给该投资者以获取微小的差价收益。 Another popular HFT strategy is to collect rebates that exchanges offer to liquidity providers. High-frequency traders will quickly outbid investors before immediately selling the shares to the investor at the slightly higher purchase price, collecting a rebate of one-quarter of a cent on both trades. Other tactics include piggybacking on sharp price movements to increase volatility, which increases the value of options held by traders. The speeds are mind-boggling. High-frequency traders may execute 1,000 trades per second; exchanges can process trades in less than 500 microseconds (or millionths of a second). 另一种流行的高频交易策略是赚取做市的差价与交易所的回扣。高频交易者会先购买再迅速以稍高于买入 价的价格卖给投资者，以此赚取买卖双方的差价与四分之一分的回扣(注 2)。其他的一些伎俩包括促使价格 剧烈变动以增加波动性，而波动性的增大可以使高频交易者所持有期权的价值增加。高频交易的速度是难 以置信的快-1000 次交易每秒-而交易所能以 500 微秒(微秒即百万分之一秒)的速度处理每笔交易。 Asymmetric information is nothing new. Even its critics concede that most HFT is perfectly legal. But some of the advantages that accrue to high-frequency traders look unfair. Flash orders, a type of order displayed on certain exchanges for less than 500 microseconds, expose information that is only valuable to those with the fastest computers. By locating their servers at exchanges or in adjacent data centres traders can maximise speed. “It appears exchanges are conspiring with a privileged group of high-frequency traders in a massive fraud,”says Whitney Tilson, a fund manager. Requiring orders to be posted for at least a second would nullify the value of flash orders and of probing the market.

信息不对称并不是什么新鲜话题。即便高频交易的批评者也承认大部分这种交易都是完全合法的。但是一 些因高频交易而带来的优势则显得有些不公平。那些用小于 500 微秒的闪电指令所探测出来的信息仅仅只 能给那些拥有最快速电脑的人带来好处。在交易所或者在临近的信息中心放置自己的服务器则能够使交易 商的速度最大化。“这说明在这场大骗局中，交易所与那些拥有高频交易员的特权集团是共谋关系”基金经 理惠特妮•提尔森(Whitney Tilson)这样说道。其实只要要求订单至少需要挂牌一秒钟便能使闪电指令和探测 市场的方法毫无用处。 A group that accounts for nearly 50% of a market also introduces systemic risk. Lime Brokerage, a technology provider, has raised the prospect of a rogue algorithm going awry. Many believe that last year's extreme market volatility was heightened by high-frequency traders. According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, an author and investor, HFT “magnifies changes and ultimately makes the system weaker”. 对于一种占有 50%市场交易量的方法，其本身也会给市场带来系统性风险。技术提供商 Lime Brokerage 已 经预期这种流氓算法会被取缔。很多人认为高频交易者助长了去年市场的急速波动。按作家兼投资者 Nassim Nicholas Taleb,的说法，高频交易“放大了变化并最终使系统更加脆弱”。 The market can correct some of these problems. Institutions are developing their own algorithms to confuse high-frequency traders. Bigger investors are moving to “dark pools”, electronic trading venues that conceal an order's size and origin. The London Stock Exchange announced in July that it was abolishing liquidity rebates. Regulators are also rolling up their sleeves. On July 24th Charles Schumer, a Democratic senator, urged the Securities and Exchange Commission to ban flash orders. As trading moves from milliseconds to microseconds to nanoseconds, everyone is learning to act more quickly. 市场可以自行更正其中的一些问题。比如一些机构正在发展自己的算法来迷惑高频交易者，更大的投资者 正在将交易移向“暗池”-电子交易能隐藏订单的规模和来源。伦敦证交所在 7 月宣布，它已取消了流动性回 扣。监管机构也开始挽起袖子了(注 3)。在 7 月 24 日，民主党参议员查尔斯舒默(Charles Schumer)就已敦促 美国证券交易委员会禁止闪电指令。在这个交易速度已从毫秒到微秒再提升至纳秒的今天，每个人都学会 了更迅速地采取行动。 译注： 1. rise of the machines 是电影终结者三的名字，相信大家都看过吧。反正好莱坞的片子，不管机器多牛， 人类总是会胜利的。 2.非专业，内行的高人麻烦关注一下。 3.准备抄家伙了。 文章背景 FTChinese 有一些报道与评论，可以看一下： 1.前高盛高管因窃取交易代码被捕 http://www. ftchinese. com/story. php? storyid=001027421 2.高盛前高管涉案突显 IT 重要 http://www. ftchinese. com/story. php? storyid=001027451 3. Lex 专栏：高频交易阴谋论 http://www. ftchinese. com/story. php? storyid=001027858 4. Lex 专栏：“闪电指令”带来的难题 http://www. ftchinese. com/story. php? storyid=001028008

经济学人杂志双语阅读：A souring relationship 不断恶化的关系 China and Rio Tinto A souring relationship 不断恶化的关系 Aug 10th 2009 From Economist. com Behind China's accusations of spying against Rio Tinto 中国对力拓间谍活动指控的葫芦里藏着什么秘密 EACH year the world's big steelmakers and the big suppliers of iron ore get together to fix a benchmark price for the commodity. For decades the annual negotiations generated barely a murmur of interest from outsiders. In recent years some attention was paid to talks between the big three of the seaborne iron-ore trade-BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale-and the steelmakers because of rapid price rises for iron ore on the back of rocketing Chinese demand. However this year they have been beset with uncustomary intrigue. 每年世界上大的钢铁生产商和大的铁矿石供应商聚集一起重新调整铁矿石的基准价格。十多年来，从外部 人士来看每年的谈判从来没出现过私下的抱怨。最近几年因为中国对铁矿石的需求急剧增加导致铁矿石价 格大幅上升，包括必和必拓、力拓和淡水河谷的三大海运铁矿石贸易商和钢铁制造商的谈判越来越受到关 注。然而今年他们却受到不合乎常规的阴谋的困扰。 Last month four Rio employees, including an Australian, and two employees of Chinese steel companies were arrested in China. Then on Saturday August 8th China accused Rio, an Anglo-Australian mining giant, of overcharging the country for iron ore by a whopping 700 billion yuan ($102.5 billion) over six years. 上个月，包括一名澳大利亚人的力拓四名雇员和中国钢铁公司 2 名雇员在中国遭到逮捕。接着，在 8 月 8 号星期六中国指责英国-澳大利亚合资采矿巨头力拓在过去的六年里因铁矿石要价过高致使中国损失 7000 亿人民币(1025 亿美元)。 It is no coincidence that the dramatic developments come as negotiations between suppliers and China's steelmakers, which should have concluded by April, are at an impasse. China's government is putting pressure on the foreign suppliers and showing its ongoing unhappiness with the way that iron-ore prices are set. Secret annual

discussions with one ore producer (in this case Rio) and a leading steelmaker (Baosteel for China) result in a price that is, by tradition, accepted by the other miners and the world's steelmakers. 随着供应商和中国钢铁制造商的本该在 4 月达成的谈判受阻，这种突然变化的出现不是偶然。中国政府对 外国供应商施加压力并对铁矿石价格定价方式表示不满。照传统，一个铁矿石生产商(如力拓)和主要的钢 铁制造商(中国宝钢)每年私下的商讨达成一个其他采矿公司和世界钢铁制造商接受的价格。 This year China has been pushing for big price cuts, in response to the waning world economy. Although steelmakers in Japan and South Korea had made a deal to pay 33% less than last year, China has demanded a deeper discount. But as talks continued, spot prices, a determinant of contract prices, began to rise. Many of China's steelmakers looked for supplies on the open market to fill hungry blast furnaces. China's negotiating position worsened even as it made increasingly belligerent noises. 作为对全球经济衰退的响应，今年中国一直要求大幅削减铁矿石价格。虽然日本和南韩的钢铁制造商已经 达成协议支付价格比去年减少 33%，中国却要求更大幅度的削减。但是随着谈判的进行，合约价格的主要 决定因素即期价格开始上升。许多中国钢铁制造商在公开市场上寻找供应填急缺铁矿石的炼钢炉。尽管中 国发出强硬的声音，但中国的谈判处于更加不利的境地。 The anger turned to outrage in early July, with the arrest of Stern Hu, Rio's head of iron-ore marketing in China, and colleagues. They were accused of stealing state secrets. Although the precise accusations are unclear it seems that the Chinese suspect Rio's people of spying on its steel industry to obtain information about China's negotiating position. As a result of seizing computers during the arrests it seems that China believes it has found evidence of Rio's wrongdoing. Rio denies all the charges but has otherwise kept quiet since the arrests. 7 月初中国的怒火演变成了愤怒，并逮捕了位于中国的力拓营销主管胡士泰和其同事。他们被指控偷窃国 家机密。尽管确切的指控还不清楚，但似乎中国怀疑力拓雇员暗中监视中国钢铁行业，目的是获取中国谈 判立场。逮捕中没收的电脑似乎使得中国发现力拓不当行为的证据。力拓否认了所有的指控，然而自中国 雇员被捕后，力拓一直保持沉默。 The latest accusations demand closer inspection. They have been made by a state-secrets watchdog, presumably with the government's blessing. But the charges seem absurd. Suggesting that Rio extracted excess charges of over $100 billion for iron ore over the past six years is odd given that the company's entire global revenue over the six years to 2008 is some $162 billion, of which less than a third has come from iron ore. 最近的指控需要密切调查。据推测，在政府的默许下国家安全局在调查此事。但是指控似乎是荒谬的。考 虑公司截止 2008 以来的 6 年里全球总收入 1620 亿美元，其中不到三分之一的收入来自铁矿石，因此过去 六年里力拓对铁矿石多要 1000 亿美元的指责是不合理的。 Perhaps the huge total reflects what the country feels it has lost because of the benchmarking system as a whole, though it still seems excessive. That too would be a strange complaint as there is no obligation to join negotiations-the system was developed to give both miners and steelmakers certainty about prices over the year. And the system is breaking down. BHP is offering a quarterly pricing system based on spot prices and Rio says that it could do something similar. China is also entitled to buy exclusively from the spot market.

尽管要价仍然过高，因为基准定价系统是一个整体，所以巨额损失反映中国感觉失去了些什么。既然没有 参加谈判的义务，抱怨似乎有点奇怪。制定的基准定价体系是为采矿公司和钢铁制造商就每年的价格提供 确定性。定价体系面临崩溃。必和必拓提出基于即期价格的季度定价体系，力拓称该公司也可以这么做。 中国也被授予专门从即期市场购买的权利。 It may be that China has other motives for its pursuit of Rio. The country's leaders were said to be furious with the mining giant for pulling out of a deal in June that would have seen Chinalco, a state-controlled aluminium firm, raise its stake in Rio from 9% to 18% in return for an investment of $19.5 billion. Rio instead raised cash to pay down hefty debts with a rights issue and also announced an iron ore tie-up with BHP (which itself had tried, and failed, to acquire Rio in 2008). Chinalco took its original stake in the hopes of blocking a merger that China feared would hand too much control of iron ore prices to one company. China worries that the new deal may lead to a similar outcome. 或许中国指控力拓有其他方面的动机。中国领导人对采矿巨头力拓退出交易相当愤怒。中国铝业原本向力 拓注资 195 亿美元，对力拓的持股比列由 9%上升到 18%。然而力拓通过增股来筹集资金偿还债务并且宣 布和必和必拓铁矿石联盟(其也试图在 2008 年收购力拓，不过失败了)。中国铝业持有力拓原始股的原因是 阻止收购的发生，中国害怕收购会使得铁矿石定价过多的控制权集中一家公司。中国担心力拓和必和必拓 的联姻可能导致同样的结果。 China may have other reasons to act tough towards Australia. Its attempts to buy assets in Australia, home to one of Rio's two head offices and many of its mines, have met difficulties. Australians are nervous of Chinese efforts to acquire what they regard as strategic assets, and regulators have been less than welcoming (rumours suggest that the authorities in Australia were ready to block the Chinalco deal). Australian bosses also point out that China does not welcome foreign takeovers of its firms. But the latest accusations, far from easing the country's way into investment overseas, may make foreigners more wary about doing deals with the Chinese. 中国对澳大利亚的强硬或许由其他原因。中国在澳大利亚收购资产的尝试受阻。而澳大利亚是力拓的两家 分公司和许多矿区的所在地。澳大利亚人对中国试图收购被视为战略资源的努力相当紧张。监管者一直不 怎么欢迎中国(谣言说澳大利亚当局准备阻止中国铝业的交易)。澳大利亚的厂老板也指出中国不欢迎外国 人收购本国公司。但是最近的指控(远没有放松国家海外投资步伐)可能使得外国人和中国人做生意更加谨 慎。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Mervyn's reality check 马尔文审视现状 Prospects for recovery 复苏前景 Mervyn's reality check 马尔文审视现状

Aug 13th 2009 From The Economist print edition The Bank of England foresees better times but remains wary 英国银行对未来预期变好，但仍存谨慎。 FOR much of this summer, a recovery has shimmered on the horizon only to turn out to be a mirage. Now a genuine revival in Britain's swooning economy does look in sight. But it will bring scant comfort to anyone hoping for a swift return to business as usual. 这个夏天的大部分时候，经济复苏的希望如同在天边闪烁般迷茫，最终不过是一场空。而暑假将要结束的 现在，英国经济昏沉之后的一场真正复苏看起来不远了。但对于那些希望经济迅速回复常态的人来说，这 还远远不足以缓解他们的忧虑。 That, in effect, was the unpalatable message delivered by the Bank of England on August 12th in its quarterly review of the economy. Presenting the findings of the Inflation Report, Mervyn King, the bank's governor, said it was likely that output had stabilised in the middle of this year. The bank was now more confident that the economy would pick up in the near future. But he gave warning that “recovery could be slow and protracted.” 事实上，这个信息的来源是英国银行于八月 12 日发布的季度经济情况报告，尽管该报告并不是令人满意的。 行长马尔文金在其展示的《通胀报告》中提出，英国出口状况在年中可能已经稳定下来。英国银行对经济 在短期内回升有更加充足的信心。然而，他也警告说“经济回复的进程会是长期而缓慢的。” That recovery should be supported in the initial stages by a turnaround in the stock cycle, as producers start to meet demand by raising output rather than running down inventories. The fall in the pound will also help. Although sterling has bounced back quite a bit since its nadir at the end of last year, the trade-weighted index is still 20% lower than in the first half of 2007, before the financial crisis began. That should give British producers of tradable goods and services a competitive edge both at home and in foreign markets. More generally, the economy is being boosted by the extraordinary stimulus it is getting from monetary and fiscal policy.

在开始阶段，支持经济的回升的会是产品流通状况上面的扭转。现阶段为应对需求，制造商不再减少库存 积压，而是正开始增加产量。英镑贬值也会起到支持效果。英镑自去年年底的最低点后已经有一定的回升， 但经过贸易加权后的英镑水平和危机前的 07 年上半年相比仍然低了 20％。由此，英国制造商的货物和服 务项目在国内和国际市场上都还拥有一定竞争优势。从更广的意义上来讲，经济所收到的支撑来自于货币 和金融政策方面强有力的刺激。 But the recovery will be from a lower starting-point than the Bank of England envisaged in May, reflecting the dismal performance of the economy in the first half of the year (see chart 1). On the other hand, it will be somewhat stronger thanks to the bank's decision on August 6th to extend yet further its unorthodox policy of quantitative easing. It will purchase a further £50 billion ($83 billion) of assets with newly created money over the next three months, taking the total to £175 billion. 然而，经济恢复的起点将会比英国银行在五月份预测中的预想要低，这也反映了英国经济在整个上半年的 疲软表现。但另外好的方面是，由于英国银行在八月六日决定延长并扩大执行它非传统的大批量经济纾缓 措施，复苏或多或少会更加强劲。根据这个决定，英国银行将在接下来的三个月以新印钞票的形式增加购 买价值 500 亿英镑(830 美元)的资产，将购买总值增加到一千一百七十五亿英镑。 Moreover, the bank used the occasion to send a signal that it would be in no hurry to raise the base rate, which it brought down to an all-time low of 0.5% in March. The report presents projections for inflation on two different assumptions, the interest rates expected by the markets and the base rate being left unchanged. By comparing the two forecasts it is possible to infer how realistic the bank judges market expectations to be. 除此之外，英国银行将以此报告为机会传递信息，银行将不会迅速提高基准利率。基准利率在三月份被下 调到有史以来最低的百分之零点五。报告中对于基于两种假设的通货膨胀率做出了预测。一种预测假设基 准利率以市场期望为准，另一种假设以其维持不变为准。通过比较两种情况我们可以看出，央行对于市场 所持有的预期的判断还是十分现实的。 The City had been expecting the base rate to rise next year, to reach just over 2% by the end of 2010 and to carry on rising in 2011. On this basis, consumer-price inflation would be below the 2% target in two years' time-the period it normally takes for monetary policy to have its full effect on prices (see chart 2). If instead the base rate were held at 0.5%, inflation would be hitting the target in mid-2011. In practice the bank is highly unlikely to keep interest rates on hold in this way, but it does not have to raise them as quickly as the markets had been expecting. 银行业界的预期是明年基准利率会上升，到 2010 年上升到百分之二，在 2011 年继续上涨。基于这种假设， 消费品价格通胀将在两年内低于百分之二― ― 而两年时间一般是货币政策在影响价格上发挥其完全作用的 时间。(见图 2)如果基准利率维持在百分之零点五，那么通胀率在 2011 年中期就会达到百分之二的数字。 在实际操作中央行很不可能采取这样保持利率不变的做法，但是央行不会令利率的升值如市场预期那样的 快。 One worry about the programme of quantitative easing is that it will stoke inflation. The bank's inflation forecasts suggest that such a concern is unwarranted. The recession has been so severe that a big gap has opened up between the productive capacity of the economy and actual output. While this persists it will constrain inflationary pressures-and given the gap's size, it is likely to last a long time, even with a healthy recovery.

有一项担忧是关于大规模纾困项目的，即这项计划会诱发通货膨胀。央行的通胀预测提出这种担忧是没有 理由的。严重的经济衰退已经导致了产能和产量之间的巨大落差。这种差距的持续存在将制约通货膨胀的 压力，而这种差距的规模导致其有可能在经济健康回升的情况下也持续相当长时间。 As if to underline the point, official figures on the labour market published on the same day as the bank's report showed earnings (excluding bonuses) rising by only 2.5% in the year to the second quarter, compared with 3.8% a year earlier. That is unsurprising given the damage wreaked by the recession. There was a record fall in employment of 271,000 between the first and second quarters of 2009. And unemployment rose to 7.8% of the labour force in the second quarter, up from 5.4% a year earlier. That brought the total number of jobless up to 2.4 m, the highest since 1995. John Hawksworth, an economist at PWC, an accountancy firm, says unemployment is on course to reach 3 m next spring. 劳动力市场上的数据恰恰说明了这一切。根据与央行报告同日发布的官方数字，劳动力市场中收入一项(除 去奖金)在第二季度较上年只增长了百分之 2.5％，而去年的这个数字是百分之 3.8％。由于衰退的严重影响， 这个数字并不让人吃惊。毕竟在 2009 年第一和第二季度间，就业岗位减少了 27 万 1 千个，失业率在第二 季度上涨到了百分之 7.8，去年的数字是 5.4％，总共失业人数则上涨到了两百四十万，为 1995 年以来最高。 普华永道经济学家约翰霍克渥斯指出，明年春季失业人数将达到三百万。 Mr King may be rather more confident about an upswing in the near term, but he continues to worry about whether it will prove sustainable further ahead. Banks still have much work to do to repair their ravaged balance-sheets, which will limit their ability to lend. Meanwhile, a fragile banking system remains vulnerable to further shocks. The Bank of England's report identifies “persistent weakness in bank lending”as a downside risk to spending over the next three years. 央行金行长也许对经济短期内的上升更有信心，但是他仍旧担心的是这种上升是否能够持久。各个银行的 收支平衡惨不忍睹，恢复仍然需要大量工作，这样又会限制它们贷款的能力。与此同时，银行系统十分脆 弱，无法承受更多的冲击。英国银行的报告中指出“银行贷款的持续疲软”将对未来三年内消费活动形成威 胁。 So much still to worry about 忧虑之处仍然不少 Households must also sort out their finances after a decade of overborrowing. They will need to save more both to make up for falls in wealth and to keep more aside in case they become unemployed. Higher saving together with subdued earnings “is likely to result in relatively weak household spending growth”, says the bank. 普通家庭进行了为期十年的过度借贷消费，现在是理清家庭财政的时候了。家庭储蓄必须增加，以便在家 庭财富流失时有所补助，并且防止失业时的窘境。央行指出，“更高的家庭储蓄以及收入的减少可能会导致 家庭消费的增长相对减弱。” There are other risks. The bank is expecting net trade to bolster the recovery, as exporters press home their gains in competitiveness once foreign markets recover. But, as the report points out, “the outlook for global demand is highly uncertain,”not least since other countries are facing the same difficulties. A world recovery may also prove

fragile if it prompts big commodity price rises. 其它风险仍然存在。央行的希望是一旦国外市场复苏，那么出口商即可在竞争中尽力追求利润，贸易顺差 可以支撑经济的恢复。然而正如这份报告所说，“世界经济需求的前景将十分难以预料”，而与此同时其它 国家也面临英国同样的问题。如果商品价格迅速上涨的话，又必然会伤害到经济脆弱的恢复。 The Bank of England's overall prognosis may appear gloomy; but it is realistic. The recession has taken a terrible toll on output, which has fallen by 5.7% since the start of 2008. The genesis of the downturn-a financial crisis that came close to toppling Britain's banking system-is one that augurs ill for a robust recovery. Moreover, the emergency monetary and fiscal treatment must eventually be withdrawn, which will create moments of peril ahead. With an election due by the middle of next year, Labour and the Conservatives will be fighting over a miserable inheritance. 从整体上看，英国银行的分析也许暗淡；但是这个分析是着眼实际的。衰退对生产产生了非常坏的影响， 自 08 年以来就下降了百分之 5.7。而这次经济下滑的根源― ― 一场几乎摧毁英国银行系统的金融危机― ― 则预示着经济复苏不会拥有一个强劲势头。另外，紧急实施的货币和财政方案必须最终撤销，这又会导致 在未来的不稳定。明年中期英国即将举办大选，工党和保守党即使争破头，得到的也会是一个烂摊子。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Zarema's end 萨利玛之死 Killings in Chechnya 杀戮之地-车臣 Zarema's end 萨利玛之死 Aug 13th 2009 | MOSCOW From The Economist print edition More brutal murders in lawless Chechnya 一幕幕更为血腥的谋杀不断在无法无天的车臣上演

Another funeral in Grozny 格罗兹尼的又一场葬礼 ZAREMA SADULAYEVA was not political. She did not investigate crimes committed by Russian and Chechen security men or write articles about them. She ran an independent charity that helped children traumatised, physically and emotionally, by two Chechen wars. Her organisation, Save the Generation, dealt with those who had lost limbs and parents. 萨利玛•萨杜拉耶娃并不涉足政治，也没有调查俄罗斯和车臣安全人员犯下的罪行，更没有写过文章来揭露 这些丑恶。她只是在运作一个名为“拯救这一代”的独立慈善组织，来帮助那些在两次车臣战争中遭受身体 和精神创伤、或是失去了双亲的儿童。 On August 10 th, in broad daylight, a group of armed men-some in military fatigues, others in civilian clothing-walked into her office and took away her and her husband, Alik Djabrailov (a former rebel). The men returned to pick up the pair's mobile phones and car. A few hours later, their bodies were found in the boot near Grozny, riddled with bullets. In their callousness and impunity the executions recalled the murder of Natalia Estemirova, a human-rights defender, a few weeks ago. 8 月 10 日，在光天化日之下，一伙持枪歹徒-既有军人打扮的，也有平民打扮的-闯进了萨利玛的办公室， 劫持了她和她的丈夫阿利克•德贾布拉洛瓦(一名前叛乱分子)，还夺走了他们的手机，开走了他们的汽车。 几个小时后，人们在格罗兹尼附近发现了夫妇俩被子弹打成蜂窝的尸体。冷血的歹徒们行凶后还能逍遥法 外，不禁让人们想起了几周前人权斗士娜塔莉亚•爱斯特米洛娃遇害事件。 The two women worked across the street from each other and shared the belief that human life and dignity are more important than political expediency. It is not a belief apparently held by the Chechen or Russian authorities. Shortly after the murder of Ms Estemirova, Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechnya's president, told Radio Liberty that she had “no honour, dignity or conscience”. His henchmen consider human-rights workers legitimate targets. Mr Kadyrov bears much responsibility for the climate of impunity and terror in Chechnya. With the silent blessing of Vladimir Putin, Russia's prime minister and his patron, Mr Kadyrov has created a totalitarian system in the province.

两位女性生前都在同一条街工作，彼此有着共同的信念：政治利益不应置于人的生命和尊严之上。但是很 显然，这并不为车臣和俄罗斯当局所认同。爱斯特米洛娃尸骨未寒之际，车臣总统拉姆赞•卡德罗夫就在接 受自由电台采访时称其是“没有名誉，没有尊严，没有良心的女人”。卡氏的追随者们甚至认为，人权工作 者遭袭，那是理所应当。卡德罗夫要为车臣地区无法无天的恐怖气氛承担主要责任。在其资助人-俄罗斯总 理普京的默许下，卡氏得以在车臣建立起极权政府。 Mr Kadyrov has been expanding his personal power, acting more as a Kremlin ally than as a subject and state employee. If Moscow had the will to investigate the murders of human-rights defenders and to protect the few still working in the region, it could easily do it. But the murders remain unsolved and human-rights activists, lawyers and journalists continue to die (a journalist was killed in neighbouring Dagestan on August 11 th). 卡德罗夫热衷于扩张自己的权力，他表现得更像是克里姆林宫的盟友，而非从属于中央政府的官员。如果 莫斯科真想让人权斗士遇害案件水落石出，并且保护那些仍在车臣坚持斗争的人权工作者，它可以不费吹 灰之力就做到。但现实是，死者沉冤未雪，又有人权活动家、律师及记者不断遇害(8 月 11 日，一名记者被 刺于临近车臣的达吉斯坦)。 An independent investigation in Chechnya would cause friction with Mr Kadyrov who is personally loyal to Mr Putin and whose means, in the Kremlin's eyes, justify the end of stabilising Chechnya. In fact, Russia's “victory”in the Chechen wars is deceptive. The entire north Caucasus remains a battleground, where people die daily. On August 12th armed rebels gunned down Ingushetia's construction minister. The Kremlin has not made Chechnya into an integral, law-abiding part of Russia. But it has moved Russia closer to Chechnya. 如果在车臣展开独立调查，就会得罪卡德罗夫。要知道，卡氏个人对普京可谓是忠心耿耿，而且在克里姆 林宫眼中，他的统治手腕，倒让车臣地区的不稳定局势看起来合情合理了。事实上，俄罗斯没有在车臣战 争中取得所谓的“胜利”-眼下整个高加索地区还战火不断，生灵涂炭。8 月 12 日，一伙武装叛乱分子甚至枪 杀了印古什的建设部长。克里姆林宫没有把车臣打造成团结一致的法治社会，反倒是今日俄罗斯越来越像 车臣了。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Keeping a grip 保持抓地力 Smart tyres hug the road 智能轮胎助行驶 Keeping a grip 保持抓地力 Jun 30th 2009 From Economist. com A new type of tyre can help to avoid a skid 新型轮胎可防止打滑

FEW sensations of helplessness match that of driving a car that unexpectedly skids. In a modern, well-equipped (and often expensive) car, electronic systems like stability and traction control, along with anti-lock braking, will kick in to help the driver avoid an accident. Now a new tyre could detect when a car is about to skid and switch on safety systems in time to prevent it. It could also improve the fuel-efficiency of cars to which it is fitted. 开车过程中由于意外打滑而感到无能为力是很罕见的。在当代，装备精良(同样也很昂贵)的汽车，诸如稳 定控制系统和牵引力控制系统之类的电子系统，与防抱死系统相结合，有助于防止事故的发生。如今，一 种新的轮胎可以探测到汽车的打滑倾向，从而转换到安全模式来防止其发生。它还可以提高安装此种轮胎 的车辆的燃料效率。 Pirelli, an Italian tyremaker, has developed what it calls the Cyber Tyre. In it is embedded a small device containing miniature sensors that can measure the acceleration and deceleration along three axes at the point of contact with the road. A tiny transmitter in the device sends those readings to a unit that is linked to the braking and other control systems. 意大利轮胎制造商倍耐力(Pirelli)生产出了这种被称为 Cyber Tyre 的轮胎。这种轮胎植入了一种含有很多微 型传感器的小装置，这种装置可以沿三轴测量轮胎与地面接触处的加速和减速。装置中有一个微型的发射 器将读数发送到与防抱死和其他控制系统相连接的一个装置中。 Developing the tyre has taken nine years so far. The main difficulty has been to make the sensor very small and light but capable of operating in harsh conditions. Accelerometers are already used in cars: for activating airbags, when they pick up the large decelerations that occur in crashes, for example, or for stability control, when they measure the acceleration during cornering and provide input to traction systems. These accelerometers are relatively large. In the Cyber Tyre they are just a few millimetres across. 研发这种轮胎至今已经经过了 9 年的时间。最主要的困难在于将传感器做的非常小和轻，并且能够在严酷 的环境中工作。加速度感应器已经被应用在汽车中，例如用于探测到车祸中发生的剧烈减速时来激活安全 气囊。稳定控制系统则被用于检测转向过程中的加速度并输入到牵引力控制系统中。这些感应器相对而言 比较大。而在 Cyber Tyre 中它们的直径则只有几毫米。 The accelerometers in the Cyber Tyre have two tiny structures, the distance between which changes during acceleration and alters the electrical capacitance of the device, which is measured and converted into voltage. Powered by energy scavengers that exploit the vibration of the tyre, the device encapsulating the accelerometers and the transmitter is about 2.5 centimetres in diameter and about the thickness of a coin. Cyber Tyre 中的传感器有两个小的单元，这两个单元的距离会随加速度而改变，从而改变装置的电容容量， 这个过程通过测量和转换为电压来进行。以“能量清道夫”从轮胎的震动中制造能源。装置将传感器和传送 器封装在一起，直径约为 2.5 厘米，厚度和一个硬币相当。 The device is embedded in the tyre within the natural and synthetic rubber, carbon black and silica that are a tyre's main components. It must work in extreme conditions. Tyre temperatures can reach as high as 80°C and as low as-40°C; the acceleration forces can reach several thousand times gravity. The device must also last longer than the tyre itself.

装置被植入到以天然和人工橡胶，炭黑和矽土为组成成分的轮胎中。它必须能够在极端环境下正常工作。 轮胎温度可以高达 80 摄氏度，也可能低至零下 40 摄氏度，在加速度作用下装置受力可达重力的几千倍。 同时这一装置也必须拥有比轮胎本身更长的寿命。 Constantly monitoring the forces that tyres are subjected to as they grip the road could help reduce fuel consumption by optimising braking and suspension. Moreover, it could promote the greater use of tyres with a low rolling-resistance, which are often fitted to hybrid vehicles. These save fuel by reducing the resistance between the tyre and the road but, to do so, they have a reduced grip, especially in the wet. If fitted with sensors, such tyres could be more closely monitored and controlled in slippery conditions. 在轮胎行进时持续检测轮胎受力，将刹车和悬挂系统调整在最佳状态也可以减少燃油消耗。再者，它还可 以使轮胎获得低滚动阻力，这种技术常常应用在混合动力车上。但通过降低轮胎和地面间的阻抗力来节省 燃料，同时也会减低轮胎的抓地力，特别是在潮湿的环境下。如果安装了传感器，此类轮胎在湿滑的情况 下可以更好的监控和控制。 So far, the results are impressive. A prototype Cyber Tyre has been running on a test vehicle for the past nine months. Pirelli believes its new tyre could be fitted to cars in 2012 or 2013, but this will depend on when carmakers incorporate the necessary monitoring and control systems into their vehicles. Earlier this year Brembo, a brake manufacturer, and Magneti Marelli, which makes electronics for cars, joined forces to help develop systems for the Cyber Tyre. As with most innovations, these are expected to be available first in upmarket models before filtering down to cheaper cars. But if the introduction in 1973 of Pirelli's steel-belted Cinturato radial tyre is any guide, devices that make cars safer will be adopted rapidly. 迄今为止，结果令人鼓舞。Cyber Tyre 的原型轮胎已经在一辆测试车辆上进行了九个月的测试。倍耐力相 信它生产的新轮胎能够在 2012 或 2013 年装备车辆，但也取决于汽车制造商何时将配套的检测和控制系统 加入他们的车辆。今年早些时候意大利刹车制造商贝尔伯(Brembo)和车辆电气系统制造商玛涅蒂玛瑞利 (Magneti Marelli)加入了 Cyber Tyre 的开发，帮助开发相关的系统。这些创新预计将会首先用于高档车辆， 然后才逐步向低端市场扩展。而如果从 1973 年倍耐力引入钢丝子午线轮胎来看，使车辆更安全的设备会迅 速的被应用。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Pigheaded policies 针对猪的政策 Swine flu in Argentina 阿根廷猪流感 Pigheaded policies 针对猪的政策 Jul 9th 2009 | BUENOS AIRES From The Economist print edition

The dangers of a reputation for dodgy statistics 躲闪统计头衔之危险 IT IS winter in South America's southern cone, so it is no surprise that swine flu is rampant. But its impact is not uniform. It came first to Chile before it turned up across the Andes in Argentina. But in Argentina 2.4% of reported cases have resulted in the death of the patient while in Chile the corresponding figure is just 0.2%. Why? 时值南美洲南锥体的冬季，所以猪流感肆虐也便不足为奇，但其造成的影响却不尽相同。猪流感首先到达 智利，随后，跨越安第斯山脉出现在阿根廷境内。然而，在阿根廷境内，2.4%的报告病例以死亡告终，而 在智利，数字仅为 0.2%，原因何在？ Part of the answer seems to lie with the way that health services are organised. In Argentina health policies as well as health budgets are in the hands of provincial governments. That is a contrast not just with Chile's centralised system but also with Brazil, which like Argentina is a federal country, but where the health ministry in Brasília sets overall national goals. 原因之一就是卫生服务的组织方式不同。在阿根廷，卫生保健政策及健康预算由地方政府管制。这不仅与 智利的中央管制系统形成对比，也不同于同阿根廷同属联邦国家的巴西，巴西利亚的卫生部设立了全国性 目标。 This means that when a bug strikes Argentina it is met by a health system whose officials talk to each other infrequently, have different objectives, and dip into pots of cash of widely varying size. For example, Santa Cruz, an oil-rich province in Patagonia, spends eight times more per head on health care than Corrientes, in the poor north-east, according to Daniel Maceira, a health economist. On July 6th several of the needier provincial health ministers were promised a bit more federal help to fight the flu. 这就意味着如果一只小虫袭击了阿根廷，它将遇到这样一个医疗系统：相关人员很少互相沟通，目标不一 致，并对大范围的疫情只投入少量资金。举个例子，据卫生经济学家 Daniel Maceira 的数据，巴塔哥尼亚 盛产石油的一个省份圣克鲁斯，投在医疗上的人均费用是位于贫穷的东北部科达特斯的 9 倍。7 月 6 日， 更需要援助的省级卫生部长得到承诺，将会得到稍多的联邦支持以对抗流感。

A second factor that may have made things worse in Argentina is that the government may have been slow to respond. Some doctors accuse it of deliberately downplaying the outbreak until after a mid-term election on June 28 th. The health minister resigned because her request to delay the election was denied (though she waited until after the vote to go). An advisory committee of medical experts assembled by the government has called for a national health emergency to be declared, but that has not yet happened. 第二个使问题恶化的可能因素就是政府采取行动过于缓慢。一些医生指责政府一直有意淡化疫情，直到 6 月 28 日中期选举结束。卫生部长因其推迟选举的请求遭到拒绝已经辞职(尽管选择直到选举结束后她才离 开)。政府组织的由医疗专家组成的咨询委员会提倡申报国家应急计划，但号召至今仍未实现。 The accusation of time-wasting may in fact be unfair. But Argentines have come to mistrust the authorities. Under Cristina Fernández, the president, and her predecessor and husband, Néstor Kirchner, they have become accustomed to the government fiddling economic statistics, such as inflation and growth rates. 浪费时间的指控或许并不公平。但是阿根廷人民已经不再相信政府了。在总统 Néstor Kirchner 及其接班人 兼丈夫 Cristina Fernández 的政权下，阿根廷人民已经习惯了政府玩弄诸如通货膨胀及增长率等经济数据。 Rightly or wrongly, many seem to believe that officials have understated the number of people who have gone down with flu (which might be an alternative explanation for the seemingly high death rate). This week panicked Argentines travelled to Chile and Uruguay in droves to buy drugs such as Tamiflu, despite the government's insistence that it would ensure there are sufficient stocks. 无论是对是错，看起来许多人都认为政府官员低报了因患流感而倒下的人民数量(也就是看来较高的死亡率 的另一种说法)。本周，尽管政府坚称将确保足够的药品储备，惊恐万分的阿根廷人还是成群结队来到智利 及乌拉圭购买 Tamiflu 这样的药品。 Chile's response seems to have been swifter, better co-ordinated and more decisive. On the same day that the World Health Organisation raised the alert about swine flu back in April, Michelle Bachelet, Chile's president, gathered a committee of experts to discuss the threat. It may have helped that Ms Bachelet is a medical doctor by profession. 智利一方看起来行动要迅速许多，配合更加协调，决策也更果断。早在四月份，国际卫生组织提高对猪流 感警惕性的当天，智利总统 Michelle Bachelet 就召集了一个专家委员会讨论如何应对危胁。Bachelet 本身是 一名专业医生或许在这方面给予了有利条件。 Argentina's halting reaction could affect the economy. Miguel Kiguel, a consultant, reckons that swine flu could shave 0.5% off GDP between July and the start of spring, in September. Theatres have closed down for ten days, the first time they have all gone dark since 1918 when Spanish flu swept the world. Brazil's government has urged its citizens not to visit Argentina. Flights from Brazil to Bariloche, a Patagonian ski resort, have been cancelled. Unluckily for the town's winter sports, swine flu is expected to die down only when the snow melts. 阿根廷迟缓的反应将会对经济造成影响。Miguel Kiguel 顾问估计，从 7 月到 9 月春季到来之时，猪流感将 耗去 0.5%的国内生产总值(GDP)。剧院已关停 10 天，这是自 1918 年西班牙流感以来第一次全部关停。巴 西政府已敦促国民不要到阿根廷去。由巴西飞往巴塞罗那-一个巴塔哥尼亚滑雪胜地-的航班已被取消。对

该城冬季运动来说，极为不幸的是猪流感预计将在冰雪融化之时才会销声匿迹。 经济学人杂志双语阅读：Spies in the sky 空中间谍 Monitor 观察 Spies in the sky 空中间谍 Jun 4th 2009 From The Economist print edition Military technology: Blimps equipped with remote-sensing electronics are cheaper than drone aircraft, and have many other advantages 军事技术：安装远程感应电子设备的气球飞艇比无人驾驶飞机便宜，而且优点多多 SPYING is a sophisticated and expensive business-and gathering military intelligence using unmanned aircraft can be prohibitively so. Predator and Global Hawk, two types of American drone frequently flown in Afghanistan and Iraq, cost around $5,000 and $26,500 an hour respectively to operate. The aircraft themselves cost between $4.5 m and $35 m each, and the remote-sensing equipment they carry can more than double the price. Which is why less elegant but far cheaper balloons are now being used instead. 间谍活动是一种尖端的昂贵行业，而用无人驾驶飞机收集军事情报其代价之高更是令人望而却步。两种频 频出现在阿富汗和伊拉克的美国无人机，“捕食者”和“全球鹰”，每小时的运作成本分别为 5000 美元和 26500 美元。两者的制造成本都在 450 万美元到 3500 万美元之间，而且它们所携带的远程感应设备是其成本的两 倍多。这就是目前用不怎么雅观但是便宜许多的气球飞艇来代替它们的原因。 Such blimps can keep surveillance and ordnance-guiding equipment aloft for a few hundred dollars an hour. They cost hundreds of thousands, not millions, of dollars. And they can stay in the air for more than a week, whereas most drones fly for no more than 30 hours at a time. They are also easy to deploy, because no airfield is needed. A blimp can be stored in the back of a jeep, driven to a suitable location, launched in a couple of hours and winched down again even faster. 这种气球飞艇能以几百美元一小时的成本把监控设备及定向武器设备悬浮在高空。它们的成本也只要几十 万，而不是几百万。气球飞艇能在空中停留一个多星期，而多数无人机一次最多只能飞行 30 小时。此外， 它们无需飞机场，容易部署。一只气球飞艇能收在吉普车的后箱中，等行驶到合适的地点后，安装升空只 需几小时，收下来则更快捷。 Unlike other aircraft, blimps do not need to form a precise aerodynamic shape. This means they can lift improbable objects into the sky, such as dangling radar equipment. At altitudes of just a few hundred metres, a blimp carrying 20 kg of remote-sensing electronics (including radar and thermal-imaging cameras) can identify,

track and provide images of combatants dozens of kilometres away, by day or night. It can also help commanders aim the lasers that guide their missiles. 与其他飞行器不同，气球飞艇不需要形成精确的空气动力学形状。这意味着它们能将那些意想不到的物品 带到空中，例如悬挂雷达设备。在只有几百米的高度，携带 20 公斤远程感应电子设备(包括雷达和热成像 摄影机)的气球飞艇能不分昼夜地分辨、追踪并提供几十公里外战斗机的图像。它还能帮助指挥官将导弹定 向激光对准目标 Blimps often operate beyond the range of machine-guns and rocket-propelled grenades. Even if they are hit, though, they do not explode because the helium gas that keeps them airborne is not flammable. (Engineers abandoned the use of hydrogen in 1937 after the Hindenburg, a German airship, was consumed by flames in less than a minute.) Moreover, they usually stay aloft even when punctured: the pressure of the helium inside a blimp is about the same as that of the air outside, so the gas does not rush out. Indeed, towards the end of 2004, when a blimp broke its tether north of Baghdad and started to drift towards Iran, the American air force had trouble shooting it down. 气球飞艇通常在机枪、火箭弹作用的范围之上。即使它们被击中，也不会爆炸，因为使它们升空的氦气使 它们在不可燃。(1937 年德国飞船兴登堡在一分钟内燃烧殆尽后，工程师放弃了使用氢气。)此外，就算被 刺穿了，它们通常也能留在高空：气球飞艇内部氦气的压力和外部气压相近，因而气体不会溢出。事实上， 2004 年末，巴格达北部一气球飞艇的绳子断了，开始向伊朗飘移，美国空军为把它击落大费周折。 At least 20 countries use blimps-both global military powers, such as America, Britain and France, and smaller regional ones, including Ireland, Pakistan, Poland and the United Arab Emirates. Many are employed in Iraq. In November 2008 Aerostar International of Sioux Falls, South Dakota, began filling a $1.8 m order for 36 blimps to be deployed by the American armed forces in Iraq. But Afghanistan may prove a bigger market. That is because it is difficult to pick up satellite signals in the valleys of that mountainous country. As a result blimps, adjusted to hover at appropriate heights, are often used to relay data to and from satellites. 至少有 20 个国家使用气球飞艇-无论是美、英、法这样的全球军事强国，还是爱尔兰、巴基斯坦、波兰、 阿拉伯联合酋长国这样稍小的地区性势力。许多气球飞艇都部署在伊拉克。2008 年 11 月，南达科塔的苏 福尔斯宇宙之星国际公司开始为价值 180 万美元的订单供应 36 架气球飞艇，美军将它们部署在伊拉克。但 事实说明，阿富汗是个更大的市场，因为这个多山国家的山谷地区无法接收到卫星信号。其结果是，经过 调整后、能悬浮在适合高度的气球飞艇，通常被用来中转从卫星接收到和发往卫星的数据。 As politicians around the world seek to cut public spending, the attractions of blimps are growing. In January America's defence secretary, Robert Gates, told the Senate's armed-services committee that the Department of Defence would pursue greater quantities of “75% solutions”that could be realised in weeks or months instead of “99% exquisite systems”that take more than a decade to develop. Barry Watts, an analyst at the Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a think-tank in Washington, DC, says America's air force has been criticised for not providing enough aerial data to “insatiable”ground forces. Blimps, Mr Watts reckons, will help them sate that appetite.

全球的政客都寻求削减公共支出，气球飞艇的吸引力与日俱增。今年 1 月，美国国防部长罗伯特•盖茨告诉 参议院军事委员会，国防部将以几周或几个月内就能实现的、数量较多的“75%的解决方案”气球飞艇代替 用十多年才能开发完的“99%的尖端系统”。华盛顿的智囊团，“策略与预算评估中心”的分析家 Barry Watts 说美国空军因没有向“不知餍足”的地面部队提供足够的空中情报受到指责。他认为气球飞艇将使空军能充 分满足陆军的胃口。

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