Football/Soccer Betting Magazine (Issue V): Odds Compiler

Newcastle v Chelsea Saints v Man Utd Odds CompilerBetting analysis and preview of the Betting analysis and preview of Man City v Everton game at St. James’ Park Monday’s game Betting analysis and preview of the game at The Etihadodds compilerfootball betting magazine 6th December - 8th December 2014 ISSUE I V

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Odds CompilerA Football Betting Magazinewith a betting preview of eachEnglish Premier League game.Each English Premier League game has Contents a two page spread with likely starting line-ups and formation, average odds IV Newcastle United v Chelseafrom the bookmakers and true odds (by VI Queens Park Rangers v Burnleyremoving the bookmakers profit margin). VIII Liverpool v SunderlandThe true odds allows the bettor to determine X Stoke City v Arsenalif a certain bookmaker is giving value odds XII Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palaceor not. XIV Hull City v West Bromwich Albion XVI Manchester City v EvertonTo further increase the bettor’s chance of XVIII West Ham United v Swansea Citymaking a profit, expected goals are given XX Aston Villa v Leicester Cityand these are used with the Poisson Formula XXII Southampton v Manchester Unitedto give a chance for each likely correct score.See the Glossary at the back for a XXIV Odds Ready Reckonerdescription of the Poisson Formula. XXV GlossaryAn advised bet is given for each PremierLeague game (if there is sufficient value)with the best odds at time of writing. Theseodds (or greater) should be taken andsmaller odds left.Odds are given as decimal odds (EuropeanOdds format). These odds are easier for thebettor to understand than fractional odds(UK Odds format), although there is anOdds Ready Reckoner in the back of thispublication.III

XISTARTINGElliot Courtois Magpies versus ChelseaJanmaat Ivanovic Coloccini Cahill Saturday 12:45pm S Taylor TerryDummett Azpilicueta Coloccini is back in training and will be available to Colback Mikel start for Alan Pardew’s side. Remy Cabella, Cheick Fabregas Tiote and Mike Williamson will be pushing for starts Abeid Oscar but Krul, Aarons, De Jong and Santon are all still out.Gouffran Hazard Ameobi is a slight doubt. Ramires Ameobi Costa Matic is banned for Chelsea but they welcome back Sissoko top scorer, Diego Costa. One of Ramires or Mikel will partner Fabregas in midfield meaning Schurrle Cisse could be called upon to fill one of the attacking roles. Cahill is only a slight doubt and should start. I make Chelsea’s supremacy +1.12 and the following bet should be good value. Bet Slip Chelsea to win £20.00 Advised Bet Pays 1.55 BetVictor, PaddyPower, Ladbrokes £31.00 IV

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 0.73 1.75 -1.02 2.48 0.75 1.85 -1.10 2.60 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 6.63 4.07 1.53 -5.0%True Odds 7.46 4.37 1.57 0.0%Chance 13.4% 22.9% 63.7% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 0-1 14.2% 7.04 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 0-2 12.8% 7.83 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 1-1 10.5% 9.52 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 1-2 9.5% 10.58 margin of victory. 0-0 7.9% 12.68 0-3 7.7% 13.04 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Newcastle United Chelsea Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Elliot CourtoisJanmaat Coloccini S Taylor Dummett Ivanovic Cahill Terry Azpilicueta Colback Abeid Fabregas Mikel Gouffran Sissoko Ameobi Ramires Oscar Hazard Cisse Costa V

XISTARTINGGreen Heaton QPR versus Burnley Isla Trippier Dunne Keane Saturday 3pmCaulker Shackell Harry Redknapp has no new injury doubts with only Mee Taarabt and Sandro still missing. Niko Krancjar and Yun Arfield David Hoilett will also give QPR some options. Vargas Jones First team players Michael Duff and Stephen Ward Barton Marney look set to miss out for the game against QPR Boyd through injury while Jutkiewicz will be hoping to Henry Barnes dislodge Ashley Barnes after making a substitute Fer Ings appearance last time out.Zamora Bet Slip Austin No bet VI

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 1.38 0.96 0.42 2.34 1.55 1.00 0.55 2.55 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 2.04 3.35 3.77 -5.4%True Odds 2.12 3.56 4.04 0.0%Chance 47.2% 28.1% 24.7% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1-0 12.7% 7.86 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 1-1 12.5% 8.02 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 2-0 9.3% 10.76 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 2-1 9.1% 10.98 margin of victory. 0-0 8.7% 11.47 0-1 8.5% 11.71 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Queens Park Rangers Burnley Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Green HeatonIsla Dunne Caulker Yun Trippier Keane Shackell Mee Fer Arfield BoydVargas Barton Henry Jones Marney Barnes Austin Zamora Ings VII

XISTARTINGMignolet Pantilimon Liverpool versus Sunderland Johnson Vergini Skrtel Brown Saturday 3pm Toure O’Shea Reveillere Options in the left-back are for Liverpool areManquillo Cattermole Johnson, Moreno and Enrique whilst in midfield Sterling Larsson Lucas, Allen and Can will fight it out for one of the Gerrard Rodwell three midfield spots. Coutinho should be available Lucas Buckley but it is more likley that Lallana will play ahead of Wickham him. Balotelli and Sturridge remain out.Henderson Fletcher Lallana Adam Johnson is a major doubt for Gus Poyet’s side Lambert while Giaccherini, Van Aanholt and Billy Jones remain out. I make the ExpG’s for this game 1.85 (Liverpool) and 0.76 (Sunderland) so there is no value here. Bet Slip No Bet VIII

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 1.85 0.74 1.11 2.59 2.00 0.80 1.20 2.80 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 1.49 4.22 6.95 -5.2%True Odds 1.53 4.55 7.90 -0.0%Chance 65.4% 22.0% 12.7% -0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1-0 13.0% 7.67 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 2-0 12.5% 7.99 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 1-1 10.0% 9.96 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 2-1 9.6% 10.38 margin of victory. 3-0 8.0% 12.49 0-0 6.8% 14.73 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Liverpool Sunderland Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Mignolet PantilimonJohnson Skrtel Toure Manquillo Vergini O’Shea Brown Reveillere Henderson Gerrard Lucas Cattermole Buckley Rodwell Larsson Wickham Lallana Lambert Sterling Fletcher IX

XISTARTINGBegovic Martinez Stoke versus Arsenal Bardsley ChambersShawcross Mertesacker Saturday 3pm Koscielny Wilson Gibbs With injuries to the midfield area (Whelan, Sidwell), Pieters Flamini Geoff Cameron will again hold onto a central N’Zonzi Ramsey midfield role. Moses and Odemwingie are injured Cameron Cazorla for Stoke but Crouch offers an option if Mark Bojan Welbeck Hughes decides to freshen thing up. Walters,Arnautovic Sanchez Ireland and Huth are all doubts. Assaidi Giroud Diouf Monreal looks likley to miss the game against Stoke with Gibbs the obvious choice to replace him. Wilshere, Arteta, Debuchy, Ozil and Walcott all remain out but Szczesny could be set to return. My ExpG’s are 1.01 (Stoke) and 1.49 (Arsenal). Bet Slip No Bet X

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 0.98 1.43 -0.45 2.41 1.00 1.50 -0.50 2.50 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 3.93 3.43 1.97 -5.4%True Odds 4.23 3.65 2.04 0.0%Chance 23.7% 27.4% 49.0% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 0-1 12.6% 7.94 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 1-1 12.5% 8.02 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 0-2 9.2% 10.87 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 1-2 9.1% 10.98 margin of victory. 0-0 8.6% 11.59 1-0 8.5% 11.71 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Stoke City Arsenal Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Begovic MartinezBardsley Shawcross Wilson Pieters Chambers Mertesacker Koscielny Gibbs N’Zonzi Cameron Flamini Ramsey Assaidi Bojan Arnautovic Welbeck Cazorla Sanchez Diouf Giroud XI

XISTARTINGLloris Speroni Spurs versus Crystal Palace Chiriches Kelly Fazio Dann Saturday 3pm HangelandVertonghen Ward Kyle Naughton, Nacer Chadli and Erik Lamela are Davies Puncheon all available for Tottenham but Adebayor is a slight Eriksen McArthur doubt along with Danny Rose and Capoue. Jedinak Bentaleb Bolasie For Palace, Joe Ledley and Dwight Gayle are both Mason Chamakh concerns but are easily replaced with McArthur and Lennon Campbell Campbell. Zaha will hope to start ahead of Puncheon. Kane My ExpG’s for this game come to 1.73 (Tottenham) Soldado and 0.77 (Palace). Tottenham’s price is drifting and there may be the potential to get a better price than 1.62 - with four bookies giving this price it’s worth waiting to see if the home side continue to drift. Bet Slip £10.00 Tottenham to win pays £16.20 advised odds 1.62 Coral, Ladbrokes, BetVictor, BWin XII

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 1.77 0.88 0.89 2.65 1.90 0.90 1.00 2.80 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 1.59 3.93 5.84 -5.5%True Odds 1.64 4.23 6.53 0.0%Chance 61.1% 23.6% 15.3% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1-0 12.0% 8.30 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 2-0 11.0% 9.07 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 1-1 10.7% 9.32 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 2-1 9.8% 10.19 margin of victory. 3-0 6.7% 14.86 0-0 6.6% 15.18 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Tottenham Hotspur Crystal Palace Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Lloris SperoniChiriches Fazio Vertonghen Davies Kelly Dann Hangeland WardLennon Bentaleb Mason Eriksen Puncheon McArthur Jedinak Bolasie Kane Chamakh Soldado Campbell XIII

XISTARTINGMcGregor Foster Hull Rosenior Wisdom versus West Bromwich Albion Davies Lescott Dawson Saturday 3pm Dawson Pocognoli Robertson Gardner Diame is out for Hull who will call upon either Sone Livermore Morrison Aluko or Abel Hernandez. Steve Bruce also hasHuddlestone Dorrans other options available to him for his squad withElmohamady Berahino Robbie Brady and Hatem Ben Arfa hoping to start. Sessegnon Quinn Anichebe The injury to key man Chris Brunt could see Berahino Aluko deployed in a wide attacking role meaning Anichebe Jelavic could take up the lone striker role. If Berahino does start up front we could see Silvestre Varela play out wide. My ExpG’s rank Hull considerably better than the bookies with 1.42 compared to West Brom’s 0.97. Bet Slip £12.00 Hull City to win pays £29.40 advised odds 2.45 Bet365, BetVictor, BWin XIV

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 1.20 1.03 0.17 2.23 1.30 1.05 0.25 2.35 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 2.38 3.22 3.09 -5.4%True Odds 2.49 3.42 3.27 0.0%Chance 40.2% 29.2% 30.6% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1-1 13.2% 7.60 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 1-0 12.7% 7.90 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 0-1 10.5% 9.50 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 0-0 10.1% 9.87 margin of victory. 2-1 8.2% 12.15 2-0 7.9% 12.64 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Hull City West Bromwich Albion Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up McGregor FosterChester Davies Dawson Robertson Wisdom Lescott Dawson PocognoliElmohady Livermore Huddlestone Quinn Gardner Morrison Aluko Jelavic Dorrans Sessegnon Berahino Anichebe XV

XISTARTINGHart Howard Man City versus Everton Sagna Coleman Mangala Distin Saturday 5:30pm Demichelis Jagielka Baines City have a crucial game in midweek against Roma, Kolarov Besic in the Champions’ League. This could mean a Navas Barry change of personnel, and Lampard, Milner, Clichy Toure Mirallas and Fernando will be ready to step up if needed. Nasri Barkley Kompany, Silva and Jovetic are all out. Eto’o Everton have a chance to prove they are still able toFernandinho Lukaku mix with the best. They have a strong squad, only Dzeko missing Stones, McCarthy and Naismith, the later Aguero two who are doubts and Stones who is definitely out. McGeady and Pienaar also give Martinez options. Bet Slip No bet XVI

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 2.14 0.99 1.15 3.13 2.30 1.00 1.30 3.30 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 1.49 4.42 6.43 -5.3%True Odds 1.53 4.79 7.25 0.0%Chance 65.4% 20.9% 13.8% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 2-0 9.9% 10.06 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 2-1 9.8% 10.16 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 1-0 9.0% 11.16 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 1-1 8.9% 11.27 margin of victory. 3-0 7.4% 13.59 3-1 7.3% 13.73 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Manchester City Everton Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Hart HowardSagna Mangala Demichelis Kolarov Coleman Distin Jagielka Baines Besic BarryNavas Fernandinho Toure Nasri Mirallas Eto’o Barkley Lukaku Aguero Dzeko XVII

XISTARTING Adrian Fabianski Hammers versus Swansea City Jenkinson Rangel Tomkins Williams Sunday 1:30pm Reid Bartley Cresswell Tiendalli Sam Allardyce should be happy, with Diafra Sakho Song Ki and Alex Song available again. West Ham also have Kouyate Shelvey Enner Valencia available with Noble a doubt. RoutledgeAmalfitano Montero Neil Taylor is suspended for the Swans and Tiendalli Downing Sigurdsson or Richards will have to fill in. Gary Monk has the Nolan Bony choice of Ki, Shelvey, Britton and Carroll for his two Carroll midfield positions. Dyer and Routledge will battle it out for a role on the right wing. Federico Fernandez remains out. With my supremacy rating of only +0.07 to West Ham, a bet should be placed on Swansea at odds of 3.25 or greater. Bet Slip Swansea City to win £6.00 Advised Bet Pays 3.25 Bet365, Coral, BetVictor £19.50 XVIII

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 1.30 1.11 0.19 2.41 1.35 1.15 0.20 2.50 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 2.34 3.31 3.06 -5.6%True Odds 2.45 3.53 3.25 0.0%Chance 40.9% 28.3% 30.8% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1-1 12.9% 7.77 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 1-0 11.4% 8.78 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 0-1 9.7% 10.26 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 0-0 8.6% 11.59 margin of victory. 2-1 8.5% 11.77 2-0 7.5% 13.30 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. West Ham United Swansea City Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Adrian FabianskiJenkinson Tomkins Reid Cresswell Rangel Williams Bartley Tiendalli Kouyate Song Shelvey Ki Amalfitano Nolan Downing Routledge Sigurdsson Montero Bony Carroll XIX

XISTARTINGGuzan Schmeichel Villa Hutton De Laet versus Leicester City Okore Moore Wasilewski Sunday 4pm Clark Konchesky Cissokho James Andi Weimann is suspended for Paul Lambert’s side Westwood Cambiasso and concerns remain over his defence with Vlaar, Cleverley Schlupp Senderos and Baker all still out. Sanchez Mahrez Leicester’s captain and centre-back Wes Morgan is N’Zogbia Vardy suspended for the game at Villa Park with LiamAgbonlahor Ulloa Moore coming in to replace him. Andy King, Danny Benteke Drinkwater and Marc Albrighton will be pushing for starts. Bet Slip No bet XX

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 1.27 1.08 0.19 2.35 1.35 1.10 0.25 2.45 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 2.32 3.29 3.13 -5.4%True Odds 2.42 3.50 3.32 0.0%Chance 41.3% 28.6% 30.1% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1-1 13.0% 7.72 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 1-0 11.9% 8.41 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 0-1 9.9% 10.11 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 0-0 9.1% 11.02 margin of victory. 2-1 8.5% 11.79 2-0 7.8% 12.85 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Aston Villa Leicester City Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Guzan Scmeichel Moore Wasilewski KoncheskyHutton Okore Clark Cissokho De Lest Westwood Cleverley Sanchez Mahrez Cambiasso James Schlupp N’Zogbia Benteke Agbonlahor Ulloah Vardy XXI

XISTARTINGForster De Gea Saints versus Manchester United Clyne Young Fonte Smalling Monday 8pm Yoshida Rojo Bertrand Valencia Southampton may be feeling the pressure a little Davis Carrick with United able to catch some ground over the lastWanyama Fellaini three games. Key man Morgan Schneiderlin joins Cork Herrera long term absentees Jay Rodriguez and James Mane Mata Ward-Prowse but Toby Alderweireld and Jack Cork Tadic Rooney also look likely to miss out through injury. There is Pelle Van Persie a doubt over another key player in Dusan Tadic but Shane Long will hope to fill in. Di Maria and Rooney are doubts for United but Falcao is available. Evans, Jones, Shaw and Blind are all still out for the away side. Bet Slip No bet XXII

Odds CompilerExpected Goals ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total Betting Company 1.23 1.26 -0.03 2.49 1.30 1.30 0.00 2.60 Bookmakers SpreadsOdds Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 2.71 3.32 2.59 -5.6%True Odds 2.86 3.54 2.72 0.0%Chance 35.0% 28.2% 36.7% 0.0%Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1-1 12.7% 7.86 current opposition and is worked out from attack and 0-1 10.1% 9.91 defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 1-0 9.9% 10.06 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 1-2 8.1% 12.28 margin of victory. 2-1 8.0% 12.48 0-0 7.9% 12.68 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. See Glossary for Poisson Distribution. Southampton Manchester United Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up Forster De Gea Rojo SmallingClyne Fonte Yoshida Bertrand Valencia YoungDavis Mane Wanyama Cork Fellaini Carrick Tadic Herrera Rooney Mata Pelle Van Persie XXIII

Odds Ready ReckonerDecimal Fraction Implied Decimal Fraction Implied Example: Decimal odds of 3.10 are equivalent to 2.1/1 Probability Probability (written as 21/10 in fractional odds).1.2 1/5 83.3% 2.63 13/8 38.0%1.22 2.9 82.0% 2.7 17/10 37.0% decimal odds (3.10) - 1 = fractional odds (2.1/1 or 21/10)1.25 1/4 80.0% 2.75 7/4 36.4%1.28 2/7 78.1% 2.8 9/5 35.7% Fractional odds to decimal odds:1.3 3/10 76.9% 2.88 15/8 34.7%1.33 1/3 75.2% 2.9 19/10 34.5% (21 ÷ 10) + 1 = 3.11.35 7/20 74.1% 3 2/1 33.3%1.36 4/11 73.5% 3.1 21/10 32.3% Now you can convert this to the implied probability:1.4 2/5 71.4% 3.13 85/40 31.9%1.44 4/9 69.4% 3.2 11/5 31.3% 1 (100%) ÷ 3.1 = 0.3226 (32.26%)1.45 9/20 69.0% 3.25 9/4 30.8%1.47 40/85 68.0% 3.3 23/10 30.3% How much will I win?1.5 1/2 66.7% 3.33 100/30 30.0%1.53 8/15 65.4% 3.38 95/40 29.6% If you put £10.00 on odds of 8/13 (1.62), you would get1.57 4/7 63.7% 3.4 12/5 29.4% £16.20 back including your stake, so a £6.20 profit.1.6 3/5 62.5% 3.5 5/2 28.6%1.62 8/13 61.7% 3.6 13/5 27.8% If you put £1.00 on odds of 15/2 (8.5), you would get1.63 5/8 61.3% 3.75 11/4 26.7% £8.50 back, so a £7.50 profit.1.66 4/6 60.2% 3.8 14/5 26.3%1.7 7/10 58.8% 4 3/1 25.0% Staking Strategy1.72 8/11 58.1% 4.2 16/5 23.8%1.8 4/5 55.6% 4.33 10/3 23.1% The Odds Ready Reckoner is ideal as a simple but1.83 5/6 54.6% 4.5 7/2 22.2% useful staking tool. If you want to win £100.00 from1.9 9/10 52.6% 4.6 18/5 21.7% each bet you place, then all you need to do is place the1.91 10/11 52.4% 5 4/1 20.0% percentage equivalent. E.G. If a team is 3/1 to win, you1.95 20/21 51.3% 5.5 9/2 18.2% place £25.00 (as the odds represent 25%) and you will2 1/1 50.0% 6 5/1 16.7% get £100.00 back. This is a better way to use your2.05 21/20 48.8% 6.5 11/2 15.4% betting money as the amount you are risking is2.1 11/10 47.6% 7 6/1 14.3% proportional to the chance of winning.2.2 6/5 45.5% 7.5 13/2 13.3%2.25 5/4 44.4% 8 7/1 12.5%2.3 13/10 43.5% 8.5 15/2 11.8%2.38 11/8 42.0% 9 8/1 11.1%2.4 7/5 41.7% 9.5 17/2 10.5%2.5 6/4 40.0% 10 9/1 10.0%2.6 8/5 38.5% 11 10/1 9.1% XXIV

Odds CompilerAverage Odds GlossaryThe average odds from various bookmakersWorldwide.Expected/Predicted GoalsA team’s estimated goals that it should score in thegiven game on average.Implied OddsAn assumed chance, written as odds, that an event hasof happening.Mean AverageThe mean average is the average which we use in basicmaths. It is calculated by dividing the total number ofsomething by how many events. For example, ifChelsea had conceded 1, 0, 0, 1, 1 and 2 goals in theirlast six games, the average goals they have concededis 0.83.5 (the total goals) divided by 6 (the number ofmatches).Poisson DistributionA statistical model that uses the mean to calculate thechance of absolute numbers. For example, ifManchester United’s average goals per game is 2.08(their mean average), then the Poisson formula willcalculate the chance of them scoring 0, 1, 2 and so on.True Odds/ChanceThese are the odds that do not have a bookmaker’smargin applied. After the bookmakers haveincorporated their profit margin into the odds, theyare lower than what the true chance reflects. XXV