Skift-Megatrends-Looking-Ahead-to-2025-EN

SKIFT | 1 LOOKING AHEAD TO 2025

Founders Airlines Reporter Executive Sales Director Megatrends Editorial Project Manager: Dennis Schaal Edward Russell Deborah Knudsen Design: Joanna Gonzalez and James Milbrandt Founder & CEO Illustrations: Nadia Sgaramella Rafat Ali Contributor Director, Business Development Ruthy Muñoz Lisa Weier Parilla Marketing Co-Founder & Chief Product Officer Editor-At-Large Commercial Director, Europe & Middle East Digital Marketing Specialist, Events Jason Clampet Raini Hamdi Kate Irwin Amy Dame President Editor-At-Large Sales Coordinator Human Resources Brian Sumers Jennifer Kedzierski Carolyn Kremins Head of Human Resources Airline Weekly Subscription Sales Linda Tepedino Chief Financial Officer Editor Subscription Sales Director, Skift Research Events Michael Cunniff Madhu Unnikrishnan Sean Willey Editorial Director, Events Editorial Research Sales Executive, Skift Research Brian Quinn Anne Duffy Editor-in-Chief VP Research Senior Events Manager Tom Lowry Haixia Wang Sales Executive, Skift Airline Weekly Regina Yuen Lindsay Bashan Executive Editor/Founding Editor Senior Research Analysts Design Dennis Schaal Seth Borko, Wouter Geerts SkiftX Designer Senior Travel Tech Editor EventMB VP SkiftX Joanna Gonzalez Sean O’Neill Katherine Townsend Editor Technology Corporate Travel Editor Julius Solaris Director of Creative Strategy Matthew Parsons Matt Heidkamp Engineering Manager Advertising Sales Mike Linden Global Tourism Reporter Editorial Director Lebawit Lily Girma VP Head of Sales Lisa Omagari Developer Pamela Firestone Rachel Bronstein Hospitality Reporter Research Editor Cameron Sperance Director, Emerging Brands Jeremy Kressmann Operations Danielle Wagstaff © 2021 Skift Inc. All Rights Reserved Editor Senior Staff Accountant Alison McCarthy Ernest Capasso Brand Strategist Office Manager & Executive Assistant Dawn Rzeznikiewicz Jacqueline Smith

SKIFT | 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 4 Travel’s New Cadence Is More Deliberate, Introspective and Soulful 32 Humbled Airlines Back Away From Any Brash New Ventures 9 Backyard Tourism Is On a Pedestal But Far-Flung Exploration Recovers 34 Cruise Lines Partner, Prune and Take Refuge In Their Private Islands 12 Hotels Are Back With Big Upsides for Owners Who Stuck Out the Hard Times 36 The Rise of Global Mobile Wallets Upends Travel Payments 15 Accor Partner Trend: Pushing the Boundaries of Lifestyle for the New Era of Travel 38 DCT Abu Dhabi Partner Trend: How Abu Dhabi Is Adapting Its Events Strategy 19 Work From Anywhere Spurs a New Type of Business Travel 42 The Robots You See and the Ones You Don’t Accelerate Automation 21 Asia Bulks Up Even As It Looks Inward 44 More Mainstream Short-Term Rentals Cope With New Headwinds 24 Travel Sectors Get Scrambled, Definitions Blur 46 Product Mediocrity Seeds a New Era of Travel Industry Disruption 26 The Subscription Model Becomes a Staple of Travel Industry Renewal 48 Renewed Strength Matters in 2025 28 American Express Partner Trend: Brands That Embrace Agility and Flexibility Will Partner (Q&A) Trend Be Equipped for the Future of Travel

SKIFT | 4 TRAVEL’S NEW CADENCE IS MORE DELIBERATE, INTROSPECTIVE AND SOULFUL By Dennis Schaal Illustration by Nadia Sgaramella Skift Take With prospects for winning the planet’s climate change confrontation after the horrific pandemic not appearing appreciably improved in 2025, the travel industry and travelers rethink their operations and the way they wander the globe, respectively. Fear is a fantastic motivator.

SKIFT | 5 SOME TRAVEL BUSINESSES AND DESTINATIONS M EGATREND: Battered by was already happening among Millennial HAVE FOUND A RECEPTIVE AUDIENCE AMONG years of a stubborn pandemic, and Gen Z travelers years earlier as seen in harsher hurricanes, more severe the chart on the next page. TRAVELERS EAGER TO VISIT PREVIOUSLY typhoons, sporadic wildfires, UNHERALDED LOCATIONS. and escalating global temperatures that The seeds of the change were already have melted glaciers, flooded coastal zones, simmering in the midst of the pandemic Editor’s Note: When mulling how to approach Although we realize that given climate change and parched entire geographic expanses, in 2020. In a Booking.com global survey Skift’s annual Megatrends exercise, which variables, political strife, the chance of fresh the travel industry — and travelers — have of travelers that summer, 60 percent of traditionally looks at the upcoming year, we pandemics, and economic dislocations, there’s been shocked into a new consciousness in respondents said they would use an app figured that 2021 could be another tumultuous no guarantee that 2025 will bring stability. In 2025. or website that recommended itineraries period given uncertainties about the uneven reflecting about the likely shape of 2025, we even where tours would have a positive impact global distribution and effectiveness of the speculated about deals that might happen if that The oldest millennials are approaching on locals. At the same time, 51 percent vaccines, and the prospects of ongoing spikes particular Megatrend is solid. Given the variables, 40 years old now, and have spawned the claimed they would change their chosen and dips in coronavirus outbreaks. At the least, for many of our individual Megatrends within more globally spirited Generation Alpha. travel destination and head instead to a even under the most optimum circumstances, this publication, we also included a counterpoint Millennials, along with their younger less-popular one if that decision would have it would be a year of recovery and wound- argument, just in case our prognostications turn Generation Z counterparts, with the oldest less of an adverse environmental impact. licking for much of the travel industry that out a different way. among the latter group now in their late-20s, outlasted 2020. were renowned before Covid-19 as being As G Adventures founder Bruce Poon Tip After all, each of these will be debated back price-conscious, experience-seeking, and described it five years ago in 2020 at a Skift We therefore decided to write our best and forth, and we hope you participate in that destination-indecisive. Find them a deal and conference, conscientiousness in personal Megatrends forecasts of what travel would dialogue with Skift about the future of travel. So a potentially memorable experience, and decision-making is essential for changing look like in 2025, five years from now, when for the sake of this year’s Megatrends, imagine boom — the vacation was on. the world, and diminishing any deleterious perhaps a sense of a new normalcy would you are waking up and reading them in 2025. impact of travel. have a chance to settle in. But in 2025, many members of these maturing generations have turned things TRAVELING WITHOUT WRECKING around, and become destination-decisive. THE PLANET That means that a growing segment of “Asking questions” is important, Poon Tip travelers — not everyone, for sure — is now advised. “Deciding between hotels, and mulling the relative impact their trips may between cruise ships. There are better have if they opt for Botswana instead of ones, and between luxury hotels. Deciding Barcelona, or choose to ride the rails closer between operators, I mean, finding out to home instead of flying an Airbus A380 where your money is going because you to a congested airport outside a teeming metropolis. This more-conscious decision

SKIFT | 6 have so much power when you decide rentals, and invested in marketing under- Importance of Environmental Responsibility for Millennial and Gen Z Travelers to travel and spend money in another visited but enticing cities, towns and economy.” villages that aren’t tourism magnets. Lisbon 90% incentivized short-term rental owners to All of this doesn’t mean making the travel rent their properties to the municipality 78% 81% experience less exciting, but it becomes to use for affordable housing instead of 76% in some instances a less flashy way of tourist stays, and more than a handful viewing and traveling the world — or your of major cities in 2025 have followed the 59% 59% 60% own region or country — with an emphasis Portuguese capital’s lead. That has helped 50% 51% on safety, sustainability, and profound tamp down real estate speculation in major 46% experiences while getting from point A to urban centers, and quieted some of the B without wrecking the climate and local neighborhood convulsions that came with U.S. UK Australia China India quality of life in the process. the daily spasms of tourist arrivals and out- of-control house parties. U.S. N=1046, UK N=509, Australia N=523, China N=1143, India N=1015 Asomewhat leaner and more consolidated travel industry, wracked by the coronavirus Some travel businesses and destinations It is important to me to choose travel businesses that I'm willing to pay higher rates/fares to use a travel service contagion and the extended period have found a receptive audience among prioritize environmentally sustainable business practices provider who demonstrates environmental responsibility of economic dislocation and pain that travelers eager to visit previously unheralded (% Very + Somewhat Important) (% Strongly + Somewhat agree) ensued, in 2025 simultaneously influences locations. Although voluntourism before the and gets shaped by this Megatrend, which pandemic tended to be a niche affair, the Source: Skift Research, Millennial and Gen Z Traveler Survey 2019 embodiesanewlyempowereddestination- incessant spikes of global climate calamities decisiveness and purposefulness. As that put peoples and nations under duress, THE SPLINTERING EFFECT out of pandemic concerns have morphed part of this new decisiveness, visitors are have spurred an intensified traveler desire in 2025 into semi-permanent tunnels embracing the slow travel movement, in 2025 to depart a destination only after However, the new world order in 2025 of intolerance, restricting admittance to soaking in fewer attractions in their contributing to making it a better place is certainly not a Utopian patchwork of the privileged, or to favored nationalities, wanderings and getting more out of each. rather leaving it as a mountain village or tolerance and feel-good vibrations. Far ethnicities, and religions. Intermittent They’d rather make stops along the way, urban neighborhood more beaten down. from it. In many ways, a surge in hyper- political tensions have turned regions and take an unanticipated turn toward nationalism, xenophobia and neo-fascism and countries into “go” or “no-go-zones.” a small village that just came into view, It didn’t take technological wizardry, but within some countries toward its own Visa restrictions have become so tight instead of speeding 80 miles per hour many online travel agencies and tour citizens, and outwardly toward refugees, and onerous in some destinations that along a highway to add another tourist operators now offer bookers the option foreigners, and other nations has rendered would-be international travelers don’t even magnet to their refrigerator collections. of dedicating a day or two of their trips to travel more splintered, and the globe more bother to consider certain visits, and opt helping construct a local water purification fragmented, turbulent, and disconnected. instead for less-exotic regional or domestic Overwrought destinations have increased system, plant trees along shorelines destinations, which have increased in limits on big-cruise ship arrivals, capped devastated by hurricanes, or immersing Travel bubbles, or trip corridors, that some popularity post-pandemic regardless. or banned Airbnb and other short-term themselves in local languages and cultures. countries inaugurated in 2020, 2021, or 2022

SKIFT | 7 All of this fragmentation has occurred OVERWROUGHT DESTINATIONS HAVE INCREASED a more intimate, meaningful, and soulful despite the fact that the profile of the LIMITS ON BIG-CRUISE SHIP ARRIVALS, CAPPED trip experience. global middle class looks considerably OR BANNED AIRBNB AND OTHER SHORT-TERM different now in 2025 when compared RENTALS, AND INVESTED IN MARKETING UNDER- COUNTERPOINT: On the other hand, with a half-decade earlier. Travelers’ despite the post-coronavirus hangover and relative buying power has shifted even VISITED BUT ENTICING CITIES, TOWNS AND climate change imperatives, many argue further eastward toward China and India VILLAGES THAT AREN’T TOURISM MAGNETS. that major travel brands, whether it be now, but Russia and Brazil played catch- Trip.com Group in China, Accor in Europe, up, as well. For example, gross domestic the global most-visited countries’ list based Digital services from food delivery to the Delta Air Lines in the United States, or product per capita rose nearly nine times on their own most-favored nations. Alibaba and Amazon retail platforms, and Emirates in Dubai, are still overwhelmingly to roughly $25,300 in China over the five- work-from- anywhere freedoms, became concerned in 2025 with profits, the stock year span, five-fold to $9,560 in India, Many observers have pointed out that ingrained in 2025, as did livestream market valuations in the case of public and it would more than triple to $33,850 innovation almost reflexively follows crises. marketing, an expanded assortment of companies, and meeting analysts’ and in Russia, as a Bloomberg analysis The Roaring 20s in the United States virtual experiences, and self-driving cars shareholders’ quarterly expectations.. of the International Monetary Fund’s followed the Spanish flu of 1918. Likewise, on well-worn and less-complicated routes. World Economic Outlook had pointed the Covid-19 pandemic of 2019 and 2020, A humbled global travel industry that was The bottom line is still the bottom line, and to. Brazil’s gross domestic product per with its extended lockdowns, dislocations, shorn of innumerable weaker companies, nothing is more important to corporations capita doubled, but slightly trailed the death and general feelings of malaise, not and battered during an era of Covid-19 than profit and the prospect of unrelenting comparable growth rate in per-capita only gave way to an enhanced appreciation and overlapping and intensifying climate growth. Sure, many airlines want to GDP in the United States. for family, friends, relationships, everyday calamities, seized opportunities to fill transition to cleaner fuels, but that will take normalcy, and the right to travel in 2025, market gaps, and got more imaginative additional years. So despite the incessant When China doesn’t ban certain travel but it also led to a period of innovation, just and creative about new ways to capture heat of climate change, American Airlines, destinations, such as it did with South as the 1920s did with its wave of autos and the 2025 loyalties of the new self-directed Ryanair, Tam and Ethiopia airlines don’t Korea way back in 2017 in a dispute over automation. traveler. Yes, many travelers in 2025 seek turn away passengers in the name of a stationing U.S. missile defense systems smaller carbon footprint. Booking.com there, and when other countries don’t doesn’t limit the number of tourists it carry out similar prohibitions, the balance sends to headquarters city Amsterdam of power among the globe’s most popular just because locals are fed up with travel destinations has shifted in 2025. overtourism. The anti-foreigner rhetoric that blunted Tripadvisor CEO Steve Kaufer was correct U.S. visitations during the Trump era has in 2020 when he predicted that the future abated five years later because of the of travel would more closely resemble its change of presidential administrations. past profile than be subject to a complete Due to the increased spending power of makeover. The traveler of 2020 is not the Chinese and Indian middle classes, in experiencing much culture shock when particular, their travelers have rewritten experiencing the travel habits of 2025.

SKIFT | 8 Photo credit: Person standing on beach. Riccardo Pitzalis/ Unsplash, https://un- “In terms of — at the biggest macro level In 2020, Expedia Group CEO Peter Kern splash.com/photos/hdSel1YeUfs from a traveler perspective, how do I think scoffed at the notion that residents things are going to change in travel in a and travelers would abandon big cities two-, three -year time frame?,” Kaufer said because of coronavirus, and in 2025 in 2020 in a call with financial analysts. we can say he spoke the truth.. Kern “I got to say not much. People love to said Expedia hadn’t found anything to travel. It’s more and more of the younger indicate “there’s a long-term behavioral generation who is growing up, looking for change” that would grow out of Covid-19. experiences in travel, always rate super He recalled that after 9/11, pundits highly on what people want to do. So the predicted that travel would change demand, I believe, will be there.” “forever,” and New Yorkers would abandon New York City in droves, but In other words, in 2025, despite the fact that never materialized. that the short-term rental recovery eclipsed “I am not one to believe that anything that of the traditional hotel industry about what we’re going through will be coming out of the pandemic, hotels are permanent,” Kern said. back — although somewhat transformed. The growth of business travel has slowed, At the same time, while local drive and hotels that formerly dedicated vacations as an alternative to long- themselves to road warriors have tilted haul flights, and trips to more isolated toward vacationers, but make no mistake destinations and properties where that hotels are back. travelers could exert more sanitary controls surged during the 2020 SHORT MEMORIES coronavirus outbreak, the hotel industry and mass tourism picked up where they Coronavirus vaccines not only turned back left off by 2025. a deadly virus, but they also seemed to have erased many travelers’ memories Barcelona is as crowded with travelers in 2025 about the days five years earlier as ever although wildfires in Napa Valley, when they were fearful of flying alongside California meant tourism never recovered a potentially contagious seatmate, or the there. Mass tourism, though, tends to years when they refused to enter packed have a very short memory. hotel elevators.

BACKYARD TOURISM IS ON A PEDESTAL BUT FAR-FLUNG EXPLORATION RECOVERS By Lebawit Lily Girma Illustration by Nadia Sgaramella Skift Take Domestic trips catapulted to a whole new level after Covid, a trend that remains solid as the world exits a four-year downturn in 2025. But international travel is like a stubborn flame because bucket lists are alive and well, albeit reimagined. Demand for long-term stays emerges from the rising crop of conscious travelers.

Preferred Destination Types Post COVID-19 by U.S. Consumers, Jul – Dec 2020 SKIFT | 10 60% 48% Jul-20 tourists. As seen in the chart on the 50% Aug-20 left, trips to beaches and national parks 40% 47% Sep-20 were sought-after domestic destinations 30% Oct-20 coming out of the Covid crisis. 20% 44% 44% 44% Nov-20 Dec-20 Political instabilities around the world 39% 40% ranging from racial-justice protests to trade tensions further cement this 35% 36% 35% domestic leisure travel trend. The ravages 34% 34% 33% 34% of climate change in coastal areas have also contributed to dissuade international 30% 31% 32% 29% 29% travel. Not least among factors is the 27% heightened sense of community that 27% emerged from pandemic times. Many travelers are more conscious of buying 22% 24% 25% 24% 22% locally and splurging in their own 21% 19% backyards to support small businesses, 19% 20% 21% 21% 21% which continue to recoup from an historic 18% 19% 19% four-year downturn. 10% 0% COUNTERPOINT: Foreign cities in far- flung destinations have not lost their Beach Small town/ countryside National Park Amusement/ theme park Urban center Cultural/ historical heritage allure. If anything, the pent-up global travel demand from years of Covid N = ~1000 per month backyard confinement continues to manifest itself, even surpassing domestic Source: Skift Research, U.S. Travel Tracker travel demand. That’s a relief to many destinations because domestic travel M EGATREND: Leisure travel continue to invest part of their vacation cultural experiences within 100 miles often lacks the power of international as a whole in 2025 is close to time in backyard tourism. Less-stringent of home. Domestic tourism isn’t a new tourism to generate revenue. surpassing historic 2019 levels. health requirements, such as the absence concept for regions such as Europe, Asia However, the global and of domestic vaccine mandates or digital and Australia, but it sits on a more solid Cities, in particular, bounced back in regional patchwork responses in public health passes, help push this local travel pedestal there, as well. 2025 quicker than what many predicted. health protocols and border restrictions demand. Public health concerns pushed some back in Covid times means that this peak In the United States, tourism offices have cities to rethink mobility while tackling remains uneven across the world. It’s true Travelers seek out coastal drive-to built a more collaborative relationship with pollution and climate issues. They lured that domestic tourism has taken on a sexier destinations, as well as wellness and local communities as a result of having to allure for the past five years, as travelers outdoor-oriented rural areas, and bespoke seek revenue sources beyond international

SKIFT | 11 new travelers and enticed residents to as Banker pointed out, “cities have been Photo credit: Kaaterskill Falls in upstate New York. Getty Images/Sharan Singh. return with enhanced urban living spaces, hubs of activities for thousands of years.” improved air quality, and technology Covid, but were eager to experience all What has changed when it comes to innovations. Skyscanner’s search results immediately the amenities that only cities offer. international bucket lists, however, is the following the multiple Covid vaccine desire to stay longer and explore slower For example, Paris decided to eliminate announcements in late 2020 and Skift’s Flexible refund policies and a wide than in the past. The slow travel movement 75,000 parking spaces and convert them Recovery Index at the close of that Covid- availability of travel specials fed globe- comes with an increase in consciousness into public recreational spaces. Milan’s laced year were predictive as well, pointing trotters’ urge to return home with epic about climate change and environmental Open Streets Plan prioritized cyclists and to big international city searches such as memories of the Maldives or South Africa. impact from both the travel industry and pedestrians, as did Bogotá and London, Munich, Madrid, Paris, and Amsterdam, That couldn’t easily be snuffed out. Nor travelers, in addition to continued vigilance among others. Addis Ababa engineered a and showing an early rebound in travel to could the hunger for offbeat experiences about health and safety precautions. green turnaround with a slew of outdoors United Arab Emirates and Latin American to look back on later in life. “The fact that parks that double as entertainment destinations, respectively. we saw people being unruly in their desire Long-haul travel has become more venues. to travel [during Covid] — because people seamless as airports continue to go Those who crave far-flung outdoor were actually taking risks in order to travel contactless. Technology advances in Way back in 2020 at the Skift Short-Term adventures, the arts, food, and local flavor — that tells us something about the nature immigration processing run the gamut Rental and Outdoor Summit, Sonder Chief know that cities are hotbeds of cultural of travel now,” said Simón Suárez, former from facial recognition to e-visas, including Financial Officer Sanjay Banker predicted exchange, and give their countries distinct president of the Caribbean Hotel Tourism in regions that were once technologically rightly that “urban travel is going to bounce attributes. Cities in 2025 recaptured many Association and head of institutional challenged, such as the Caribbean. back in a big way and that the demise of former residents who had escaped to relations at Grupo Puntacana. the city argument is overrated.” Indeed, the suburbs or less-populated areas after THE FACT THAT WE SAW PEOPLE BEING UNRULY IN THEIR DESIRE TO TRAVEL [DURING COVID] — BECAUSE PEOPLE WERE ACTUALLY TAKING RISKS IN ORDER TO TRAVEL — THAT TELLS US SOMETHING ABOUT THE NATURE OF TRAVEL NOW. -SIMÓN SUÁREZ, HEAD OF INSTITUTIONAL RELATIONS, GRUPO PUNTACANA

SKIFT | 12 HOTELS ARE BACK WITH BIG UPSIDES FOR OWNERS WHO STUCK OUT THE HARD TIMES By Cameron Sperance Illustration by Nadia Sgaramella Skift Take Corporate travel planners and event bookers hold the key to the financial fate for much of the hotel industry. But struggling hotel owners who made it to the other side of the pandemic were likely to see greater profits because of supply constraints and many weaker competitors succumbed.

SKIFT | 13 M EGATREND: The hotel indus- arrangements like work-from-hotel pro- teractions between staff and guests. But “That’s complete malarkey,” Unite Here In- try is back in 2025, but it looks grams to generate revenue between the post-pandemic, these are as common ternational President D. Taylor told Skift in considerably different than it occasional major event. to the hotel industry as mobile boarding 2020 in commenting on the hotel industry’s did five years earlier. There is passes are to the airlines. Hotels cut labor safety argument. “It’s an economic move. no doubt the pandemic brutally ravaged Companies that decided to reduce their costs tied to heavily staffed front desks. Anybody who portrays it any other way isn’t the sector. Hotel portfolios in large, urban office footprint during the pandemic rely telling the truth.” centers or those focused on meetings and more on these surviving convention ho- The most severe cuts came to housekeep- events may not have shuttered for good tels to conduct quarterly meetings, which ing, which was the biggest labor expense Although governments and health author- — but they certainly traded hands. Own- is an upside to the properties that made for many hotel owners. Hotel companies ities widely distributed Covid vaccines, and ers and investors who lacked the resources it. Some of these businesses even use the quickly eliminated daily room cleanings the pandemic is in the rearview mirror, daily or had no stomach for the turbulence of work-from-hotel model in select cases as at most properties during the pandem- room cleanings still aren’t a common occur- an extended recovery period, got out early a way to provide a reliable, private office ic as an alleged safety precaution. Labor rence in 2025 — unless guests are willing to in 2020 and 2021, but those who persisted space in lieu of longer arrangements with unions, such as Unite Here, balked at that pay extra for them. were in store for a significant upside. coworking entities such as WeWork. decision, and claimed it was simply a way to cut costs rather than promote safety. “There’s going to be an opportunistic play But this is still a fairly limited revenue for someone willing to carry those hotels stream and works best when the hotel U.S. Hotel Occupancy Was Slow to Recover for the next year or two,” Acres Capital CEO works in partnership with a coworking Mark Fogel told Skift in 2020. company such as the way Proper Hospi- Key Performance Indicators tality partnered with Industrious. 2019 ­—­ 2020F — 2021F As seen in the chart on the right, U.S. ho- tel occupancy and average daily rates HOTEL SERVICES ON THE Metric 2019 Actual 2020 Forecast 2021 Forecast were severely impacted in 2020. But on CHOPPING BLOCK 66.0% 42.2% 52.2% the owner side, the recovery’s slog paid Occupancy* $131.22 $103.65 $109.21 off for some. Years of cost cuts, including Despite the pandemic pain, some hote- $86.67 $43.76 $57.03 streamlining operations and reducing em- liers salivated and took advantage of the Average Daily Rate ployee rosters, delivered an industry with pandemic-driven ability to accelerate Revenue Per significantly higher profit margins in many cost-cutting initiatives that were unthink- cases compared even to those seen in re- able in pre-pandemic times, especially in Available Room* cord-setting performance years leading U.S. and European cities with an organized up to the first coronavirus case. labor presence. * This assumes no temporary hotel closings Source: STR/ CoStar Realty Information While convention hotels still operate, they Hoteliers marketed contactless features are no longer built at the same rate as like mobile check-in and checkout as safe- they were pre-pandemic. Instead, own- ty initiatives to limit potentially unsafe in- ers of these spaces rely on alternative-use

In a trend that started years before the Sure, vaccines were widely distributed and THERE’S GOING TO BE AN OPPORTUNISTIC pandemic, the hotel industry again took the pandemic for the most part is a thing PLAY FOR SOMEONE WILLING TO CARRY THOSE a page from the airline sector’s playbook of the past. But leisure travel still dominates in rebuilding after the pandemic. Services in an environment where many companies HOTELS FOR THE NEXT YEAR OR TWO. that were once included in the room rate and event planners recognize the cost are now unbundled and charged on an a savings inherent in virtual meetings and -MARK FOGEL, CEO, ACRES CAPITAL la carte basis, especially in economy-scale remote gatherings. People still fly in for hotels. vital business meetings or due diligence the control of an entire home or condo chain’s resorts, and other global hotel trips — but at nowhere near the frequency through a short-term rental. chains expanded into short-term rentals Sure, guests grumble about the way seen in 2019. That has greatly hampered especially as a way to tap into markets things were, but they still flock to these occupancy rate recovery, especially in In a manner similar to hotels, companies where a traditional hotel wouldn’t work. properties for loyalty perks. That’s because urban hotels. like Airbnb also rolled out stringent health competitors are likewise charging the new and safety standards during the pandemic This push for to focus on leisure travel, fees, and many guests believe that hotels Vacation travelers are back in full force, to allay fears of the virus. That, along with or vacationers, further tanked the hotel make for a safer stay than unwieldy short- sometimes even more than pre-pandemic the convenience of driving to a vacation industry as room rates plummeted. Hotel term rentals when it comes to cleaning levels, due to pent-up demand and lingering home distant from pandemic-spiking analysts warned hotel owners to hold the and health. memories of 2020 shutdowns. But those cities, rapidly accelerated the brand’s line on rates, even during the pandemic era travelers aren’t booking stays in hotels like appeal to new customers during the year, of low occupancy, since it is so hard to build COUNTERPOINT: The hotel industry they once did. Hotel companies banked 2020, when it became a public company. up daily rates consumers got accustomed comeback would rely on corporate travel on travelers craving the familiarity of a Short-term rentals from Airbnb, Expedia’s to steep discounts. and major events to kick back into gear, major brand coming out of the pandemic. Vrbo and others became a viable hotel but that hasn’t happened so far. Instead, travelers migrated toward having alternative for both vacationers and even But with the cash cow of business travel business travelers. not returning to pre-pandemic levels, hotel Photo credit: A hotel front desk. Courtesy of Pixabay/yayayang1619 owners had little choice but to reduce rates Hotel companies recognized the changing to woo leisure travelers. consumer appetite, and many joined the short-term rental fray. Marriott’s Homes & This prolonged period of poor performance Villas is no longer just a “very small part” sparked a wave of hotel loan defaults and of the company, as leaders at the world’s property closures. Major urban areas that largest hotel company repeatedly said once generated substantial corporate during its launch in 2019. Luxury brands travel saw owners begin to convert like Four Seasons Hotels & Resorts have underutilized hotels into apartment or their own spin on short-term rentals, condo developments, and that alleviated placing them as residences within the housing shortages across many markets.

SKIFT | 15 Photo credit: Mama Shelter Los Angeles PUSHING THE BOUNDARIES OF LIFESTYLE FOR THE NEW ERA OF TRAVEL Skift Take Successful brands demonstrate high levels of resilience during economic and business cycles. With fewer barriers, limitations, and investments in brand-wide standardizations, lifestyle hospitality brands are able to pivot more quickly in the face of today’s challenges.

Gaurav Bhushan Sharan Pasricha ten multi-functional, with a mix of dining, CEO, Lifestyle Founder & CEO workspaces, entertainment, and retail, Accor Ennismore sometimes all under one roof. Lifestyle ho- tels are authentic reflections of the desti- nations they're in, and work as an ecosys- tem, striving to support and embrace the communities around them. SkiftX: What is your overall strategy for the lifestyle sector over the next five years? A CCOR recently doubled SkiftX invited Gaurav Bhushan, CEO lifestyle, Over the next five years, we expect guests Bhushan: Our strategy is to provide the down on the idea that Accor, and Sharan Pasricha, founder and to continue to embrace our lifestyle brands support and resources our lifestyle brands lifestyle hotels, which CEO, Ennismore, to debate the definition as they gravitate to new ways of living and need to achieve a more global presence. evolved from the millenni- of lifestyle, how it will evolve over the next working, as well as wanting hotel experi- It’s critically important that we do this five years, and how current industry trends ences that are in tune with their own spe- without diluting the attributes that made al trends of boutique and might impact that long-term strategy. cific interests and tastes. these brands successful in the first place. Our diverse lifestyle portfolio presents tre- design-led independent SkiftX: How do you define “lifestyle” Sharan Pasricha: 'Lifestyle' has become a mendous potential for future growth and now, and how do you hope it is viewed bit of a buzzword, like 'boutique hotels' once expansion, so we want to help them grow hotels, will continue to fuel growth in the by 2025? was. To me, it means honing in on brand ex- in a way that fosters their unique character periences and curating how brands make and features. hospitality sector over the next three to Gaurav Bhushan: We define the lifestyle you feel – just as we have done so far with sector as properties that combine the best The Hoxton and Gleneagles. They're des- Pasricha: Ennismore is on a mission to five years. of both worlds: the individuality of an inde- tinations that offer experiences that start be the most exciting hospitality company pendent hotel combined with the smooth well before you check-in, such as the digital out there, and this new partnership means Lifestyle currently accounts for roughly delivery of global hospitality expertise. Our journey and social media. our five-year strategy already looks excit- 5 percent of Accor’s annual revenue, its lifestyle hotels, such as Tribe, Mama Shelter, ing, with over 110 hotels in the pipeline. In current development pipeline is weight- and Mondrian, are known for standout de- Just as important, lifestyle hospitali- a post-pandemic world, people won't be ed much more heavily towards lifestyle sign, dramatic F&B venues, unconventional ty means crafting spaces that make you just seeking out bargain beds for the night. properties, representing 25 percent of its living and gathering spaces, and an innate feel at home and welcomed – places you More than ever, they'll be looking for expe- pipeline by value. Spearheading this path sense of creativity. actually want to hang out in. They're of- riences they can remember and cherish, forward, Accor recently announced that it’s in exclusive discussion to join forces in 2021 with Ennismore, which includes brands like The Hoxton, Gleneagles, and Working From_.

SKIFT | 17 Photo credit: Jo&Joe Paris Nation like our Camp Hox pop-up this summer in to reign. This is something we've always sup- Oxfordshire, which took the best bits of The ported with our open-door lobbies at The Hoxton to the countryside. Hoxton and since evolved into our dedicat- ed coworking brand, Working From_, which SkiftX: What consumer or industry we look forward to building on. trends are you most closely monitoring that would impact your strategy? Flexibility within hospitality has proved in- dispensable this year. We had already chal- Bhushan: The pandemic is the biggest lenged the age-old mold of rigid check-in issue to impact the hospitality industry in and check-out times with the introduction of modern history, and its effects will ripple Flexy Time at The Hoxton, for example. This on for years. Not only are we seeing chang- is something we look forward to continuing es in how people choose to congregate to build on. As we navigate a post-pandemic and how we might need to rethink our world and adapt to new demands and new communal and public spaces, but we also desires, lifestyle hospitality brands must expect to see a long-term shift to more continue to push boundaries, challenge ex- blurred boundaries between work and pectations, and tell new stories. play, or blended social time, family time, and business time. This content was created collaboratively by Accor Group and Skift’s branded con- Pasricha: This past year has proven the tent studio SkiftX. scope of remote working, and there's no doubt agile ways of working will continue

SKIFT 18

WORK FROM Photo credit: Meetingsbooker.com launched a remote workspaces solution to facilitate ANYWHERE SPURS the booking of local workspaces for teams working from home. A NEW TYPE OF BUSINESS TRAVEL By Matthew Parsons Skift Take By 2025, it turned out employees were happy to give up the office, but they wholeheartedly fought to keep some kind of physical interaction with coworkers.

SKIFT | 20 Photo credit: Man working in coffee shop, Štefan Štefančík/ Unsplash, https://unsplash.com/photos/pzA7QWNCIYg M EGATREND: The abrupt dig- as efficient as before, they exceeded expec- mental health concerns, and even physical carriers launched subsidiaries to meet the italization of the workplace tations. Productivity soared. wellbeing for a new generation that never requirements for discerning clients and and office culture in 2020 led knew what it was like to commute to an higher standards. to a surprise boom in a some- Some organizations nostalgically held on office everyday. to their city headquarters, while others opt- In the old days of 2020, remote-working what new form of “corporate ed for impromptu satellite offices in other By 2025, the volume of these work trips by specialists like Ethos and Outsite oper- urban areas, centered around colleagues’ all employees — and not just the salespeo- ated on the fringes, and attracted digital travel” in the following years. Remote em- needs. ple and executives — rivaled the record nomads. Corporations would occasionally highs of 2019. All employees were now bring in these specialists for team-building ployees around the world were increas- WORK TRIPS REDEFINED business travelers. getaways, or an annual get-together. ingly required to attend in-person compa- Remote working became big business. Ex- Hotels initially picked up a lot of the Not anymore. In 2025, a new breed of tour ternal meetings successfully moved online, post-pandemic slack, diversifying into new operator emerged, building exclusive re- ny-wide meetings for team-building and boosted by advancements in virtual reality brands to accommodate company-take- treats in remote destinations for organiza- platforms. Then remote employees around overs at their properties, and perfecting tions that would leverage them in the bat- collaboration. This helped offset those bil- the world were increasingly required to co-working spaces and subscription pack- tle to land the best talent. attend regular company-wide in-person ages, competing against the likes of Citi- lion dollar losses many feared would hit meetings. In some countries it even became zen M and Mint House. These offsite program perks became ev- mandated by law in attempts to address erything for a talent pool that now reached due to video conferencing. employee morale, company cohesiveness, Airlines stepped up, too. A thriving char- every corner of the planet. ter market took hold, while international Some of the early signals came from short- term rental providers, which saw their av- erage length of stay driven upwards by on-the-move workers. After the pandemic thrust workforces to stay at home, remote working took hold and employees didn’t just prove they were

ASIA BULKS UP EVEN AS IT LOOKS INWARD By Raini Hamdi Illustration by Nadia Sgaramella Skift Take There will be a stronger domestic and regional focus in the travel industry in 2025, and given that some of the world's biggest source markets will be in Asia (think China, India and Indonesia), Asia looks set to be the key beneficiary. But can the unbeatable beauty of Bryce Canyon in Utah, the pull of London's West End, or Parisian street life really keep Asians close to home for long?

SKIFT | 22 M EGATREND: It's 2025 and all Recovery started in 2021, with China as the Outbound Tourism Research Institute The biggest change is that Asian outbound the talk about Asia continuing driving force. The Lunar New Year holiday had predicted in November 2020. By travelers have become less global-thinking. to be the travel powerhouse that year turned out to be a golden week 2022, that number had been forecast To compensate for the reduced number has not only come true, but it for mainland Chinese traveling overseas, to reach 180 million, surpassing 2019’s of foreign trips in 2019 and 2020, and the has busted expectations. just as National Day in October 2020 was mark of 170 million, as seen in the chart tendency to vacation domestically, Asian a milestone for the recovery of domestic below. travelers from many countries are taking Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, tourism travel in China. Pent-up demand broke more trips annually, which helps to stretch regions that generated the highest arrivals’ through its restraints thanks to vaccine Other big Asian outbound markets budgets, to rather than splurging on one growth in 2019, and welcomed 364 million availability and Covid-19 containment in such as South Korea, Japan, India, Hong or two long-haul journeys. and 64 million visitors, respectively, are key Asian destinations. Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia well on the way to exceeding those levels and Thailand also started bouncing AIRLINES AND TOUR OPERATORS by the end of 2025. Around 100 million mainland Chinese back from 2021, albeit at a bit of a slower THINK DOMESTIC traveled overseas in 2021 as the China pace than China. Border Crossings from Mainland China in Millions Asia's low-cost carriers wear their badge of agility more earnestly than ever, launching 200 services and adding frequencies, which 180 drive Asians to rediscover local destinations and countries closer to home, where they 180 162 170 can spend time with friends and family. 160 To a degree, travelers are prizing familiarity 145 overnovelty.Moreover,mostAsiancountries, having learned the perils of depending too 140 133 137 much on overseas demand, are continuing to exhort the virtues of vacationing at 120 115 home, and helping local businesses grow. Governments are continuing to incentivize 100 98 100 domestic travelers with vouchers. Hotels 83 18 and tour operators are also keeping pace, creating unique local experiences to satisfy 80 70 a market that knows its backyard well. That’s something Covid-19 has forced tour 60 57 operators and hotels to learn, and they are 48 taking advantage of the trend.. 41 43 40 31 34 29 20 10 12 17 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 Source: COTRI ANALYTICS

SKIFT | 23 At the same time, massive investment Pollution and congestion were factors Photo Credit: Chinese tourists in Switzerland. Courtesy of Switzerland Tourism in local roads, highways and railways that led to European countries such throughout Asia is improving the as Switzerland, Sweden, Finland and are fearless about flying post-pandemic. and Abu Dhabi Tourism, having grasped infrastructure, a boon for regional and the Netherlands becoming the fastest- While Asia has lots to offer, cosmopolitan new ways to inspire travelers during domestic travel. This takes place as Asians growing nations for Chinese travelers pre- cities such as New York or Paris have not Covid-19, and are now more inventive as in many markets have found a new love pandemic. Post-pandemic, the yearning lost their luster. Asians, whether Chinese they use computer-generated imagery for road trips and train journeys, spurred for “space” has only intensified. or Singaporeans, prize the novelty of and other marketing tactics that speak to by the pandemic. So the attributes that made Europe the visiting new destinations, be it Saudi younger, tech-savvy Asian travelers. second largest destination for Chinese Arabia or Brazil, over familiar vacation All this has led to a continuing weakening touristsafterAsiapre-pandemic becauseof spots in the region. And lastly, at times, it's geopolitics in of the power of Western-focused travel the outdoors, nature, fresh air, culture, and Asia-Pacific that tilts the balance toward companies while destinations from even shopping, have made the continent Do you remember, almost five years ago the West. Before Covid-19, China used Indonesia to Dubai are grabbing market only more attractive after Covid-19 as now, the sensational numbers that came its giant outbound travel market as a share. Asians go about fulfilling their appetites out of China’s National Day Golden Week card to strengthen its political positions, for freshness, space, different cultures, and of October 2020? Members of post-1990s be it with South Korea, Palau, or others. COUNTERPOINT: Many travelers from new adventures worldwide. and post-2000s’ generations accounted In 2025, some Asian governments have Asian countries have returned to Beverly for more than 60 percent of travelers, become comfortable with imposing travel Hills and the Grand Canyon, as well as Looking back from our 2025 lens, we can according to Trip.com Group. restrictions — and it’s not always based on Harrods and Buckingham Palace. London say Booking.com was right in its October health and safety needs. Partners and Brand USA are doing just 2020 report on the future of travel when it Destination marketing organizations, fine, thank you. predicted that travelers would not write-off from Brand USA to Switzerland Tourism their love of long-haul getaways. Its survey No other continent had more countries found that 21 percent of respondents impose lockdowns, mask-wearing “intend to travel to the other side of the and social distancing than Asia in the world by the end of 2021, compared to immediate wake of the pandemic.. But this only 6 percent by the end of 2020.” isolation created a feeling of psychological imprisonment and with it, the deepest THE DEMOGRAPHIC FACTOR longing for “space” — meaning the outdoors, nature, and fresh air. Demographics play into the resurgence of long-haul travel from the region. In many But China and India, the two most parts of Asia, the average age is 28 years populous countries in Asia, are also its old, compared with 38 in the U.S., and most polluted, while rapid urbanization in older than 40 in Europe. Young, mobile the region leads to excessive traffic snarls and digitally accomplished, many Asians and a sense of crowdedness, especially in readily embrace contactless travel and overburdened cities.

SKIFT | 24 TRAVEL SECTORS GET SCRAMBLED, DEFINITIONS BLUR By Sean O'Neill Illustration by Nadia Sgaramella Skift Take Expect most travel sectors to shed their defined borders, with convergence running wild. But a handful of companies will choose to focus instead on their core services as an elixir for growth.

SKIFT | 25 EGATREND: Looking back operator and began running tours where its Convergence of Accommodation Sectors from 2025, we see that the customers can use the Trip.com mobile app pandemic catalyzed and sped to listen to the voice of a recorded guide Global Market Size ($B) of Travel Accommodations Sectors 2019 in their native language. Indonesia-based M up a sector convergence that online travel agency Traveloka's first move Short-Term Rentals B&Bs had been simmering for years. after going public on the stock market was $116 $15 Fierce competition from superapps like to buy a cruise line from Genting, given the Grab, WeChat, Line, and Rappi fueled the surging interest among China’s seniors in Hotels & Motels Timeshare cross-selling spurt. gambling-themed cruises. $600 $5 Another factor: Making the most of For years, the travel sector locked itself into Serviced Hostels marketing money. Many companies ran siloed thinking, with executives from, say, Apartments/ $5 direct booking campaigns to optimize hotels, living in a bubble and not adapting an Aparthotels their marketing expenditures. So corporate expansive mental framework to see related investors pushed the brands to add more opportunities elsewhere. But a wave of $21 products and services, hoping to boost developments in computer programming the average number of transactions per has made it easier to aggregate products. Source: Skift Research estimates. All values are gross bookings (value paid by customer) in $ customer. This trend can make it shrewd for a brand billion for full-year 2019. like Hilton Worldwide, which has millions of Asset-light businesses, such as hotel groups loyalists, to use its heft to upsell guests on an all-in-one travel booking provider by Managers found it too hard to comprehend and online booking services, found the vacation homes, experiences like a diving adding flights and more. Other companies the drivers of operational excellence or shift straightforward to make. Showcasing excursion, or perhaps even glamping. It's in 2025 rehabbed their way to simplicity, fully grasp the levers that affect marketing the trend, Accor entered the ski resort and better to flex your brand's muscle than jettisoning distracting business lines. performance when an enterprise became operation business via acquisition with a wait and watch as some platform players Asia embraced the conglomerate model diversified into multiple business models. deal it saw fitting into its Live Limitlessly like Amazon, Google, or Alibaba sweep in, more than much of the world did. Yet pre- Consolidation of traditional competitors campaign. Marriott, for its part, acquired and steal your customers with some travel pandemic wind-downs at HNA and post- to strengthen or hold market share often a significant fitness and spa franchisor to offering. crisis financial at heavily peers tarnished proved a safer bet. increase how often consumers interact the model's reputation. with its brands. Even before the pandemic, COUNTERPOINT: In 2025, corporations Five years after the unprecedented revenue as seen in the chart on the right, the rethought mission creep and portfolio Leveragingabrandbyaddingmoreofferings crisis of 2020, perhaps one of the lasting accommodations sector had expanded sprawl, which had been reflexive reactions and types of operations can sound good in lessons was it is difficult to make an elephant way beyond traditional hotels. among some growing out of the revenue theory. But it often created a complex beast dance. Better to be a lynx. crisis five years earlier. Executives were that was hard to manage in practice in 2025. Online travel sellers fattened up. After reassured that in the midst of the Covid Facebook spun out WhatsApp in response crisis, Airbnb's hot initial public offering to trust-busting regulators, Booking.com validated its choice to focus on its lodging acquired it as part of \"its mission to make it and experiences.. Airbnb had abandoned easier for everyone to experience the world.\" its pre-pandemic ambitions of becoming Trip.com Group snapped up a major tour bus

SKIFT 26 THE SUBSCRIPTION MODEL BECOMES A STAPLE OF TRAVEL INDUSTRY RENEWAL By Sean O'Neill Skift Take Some companies will add subscriptions to their mix of revenue streams, while others will go to market with subscriptions as the foundational offering in attempts at becoming a sort of Netflix of travel. Photo credit: A Selina co-working space available by subscription in Medellin, Colombia. Selina

EGATREND: In 2025, the said Amy Konary, chair of The Subscribed on top of basic offerings. Airport lounge BeRightBack, where travelers pay a monthly subscription model, with Institute, a think tank about the subscription membership programs, for example, fee in exchange for three package holidays, economy that's run by tech firm Zuora. could add benefits such as vouchers for where their destinations, flights, and hotels M its recurring payments, is a \"That's the surprise and delight you crave short-term parking at airports, access to are essentially chosen for them. Bratislava, mainstream business model as a traveler.\" speedier airport security lanes powered by Slovakia has been among those choices. option for many travel companies. The vast biometric identity companies such as Clear, promise of monthly or annual payments A case in point is Inspirato Pass, which lets or meeting space booked through services Konary was prescient about the coronavirus as an alternative to one-off purchases has travelers book serial stays at many of the such as Peerspace. postscript. been gaining traction. hotels and vacation homes that are part of Inspirato's luxury hospitality club. The startup SUSTAINABILITY \"Subscriptions can help incentivize more In the past five years, lodging brands Selina, offers properties with desirable designs sustainable practices,\" Konary said. \"That's Oasis, and CitizenM each debuted a plan and locations. But more importantly, it also Many travel companies wanted to up their important because once the travel sector that lets remote workers hopscotch from provides perks that vary by situation, such environmental games. But they often gets out of the coronavirus crisis, it will face property to property for monthly fees. as champagne on arrival or the suites with used vendors that were wasteful. Happily, the climate crisis.\" You can expect other brands across travel panoramic views. subscription schemes can overturn old sectors to sign-on to the concept, too. business models that relied on service Some will seek steadily paying customers STACKING PERKS contracts based on planned obsolescence with subscription solutions that provide to make a profit. surprises to wow customers. Businesses may The travel sector already had many stack perks on top of their new mainstay membership services that aimed to smooth Exhibit A for this dynamic is Amsterdam's subscription offering. And the subscription out the pain points of business travel. But Schiphol Airport, which switched from model may enhance the environmental membership needed more privileges. using cheap light fixtures that created sustainability that a chunk of travelers are waste because of the need to frequently now demanding. Consider how, in retail, Amazon for years replace them, to a subscription-based benefittednotonlyfromitsPrimeprogram’s lighting service. The airport’s vendor SURPRISES monthly fees, but also from the extra visits can now afford to install light fixtures to its site that the subscription loyalty plan with longer lifespans, which are better Like the beer-of-the-month club that generated. The additional visits translated for the environment, thanks to the spotlights rare brews instead of merely into more shopping. Similarly, travel brands guarantee and cash flow of a recurring shipping big-name booze brands, the best used subscription-based membership contract. leisure travel subscriptions in 2025 unearth services in 2025 to boost overall customer delightfully surprising experiences, and not interactions by adding benefits. Somecompanieswilladdsubscriptions only offer trips. to their mix of revenue streams, while By 2025, many travel brands were likely others will use subscriptions as the \"Say you're staying at a vacation rental and enhancing their paid membership main offering, like a Netflix for travel. An the chef comes to the house and prepares programs by stacking many more perks example of the latter is London-based a gourmet dinner for your extended family,\" Photo credit: London-based BeRightBack offers stays in Bratislava, Slovakia as an option in its subscription plan. Bratislava as seen on February 9, 2019. Flickr/Patrick Müller, https://bit.ly/38cpKDR

BRANDS THAT EMBRACE AGILITY AND FLEXIBILITY WILL BE EQUIPPED FOR THE FUTURE OF TRAVEL Skift Take The Covid-19 pandemic proved that brands that are able to quickly evolve their offerings to meet the shifting needs of customers are the ones that will not only survive, but come out stronger through their ability to adapt. The importance of embracing agility is one lesson brands can take into 2021 and beyond.

W HEN Covid-19 paused trav- Audrey Hendley It’s going to take some time for both lei- In response, we’re investing in new digital el last year, American Ex- President, Global sure and business travel to recover. But tools to continue to uplift our high-tech press Travel acted quickly Travel & Lifestyle we’re investing for the long term and using meets high-touch servicing and provide a to revamp its offerings to Services this time to address the immediate needs more personalized experience for our Card of our customers while helping them pre- Members. Beyond that, Covid-19 testing meet the new realities of SkiftX: What’s your outlook on where pare for the future. and widespread distribution of the vaccine travel will be, looking toward 2025? will bring increased comfortability with its Card Members around SkiftX: What needs to happen for travel traveling. Audrey Hendley: The future of travel is to bounce back? the world. The move showed the need for strong, and we believe it will eventually re- SkiftX: How would you define Ameri- turn to the level it was at in 2019. There is Hendley: Health and safety, flexibility, and can Express Travel’s strategy during this brands to innovate and adapt on the fly – pent up demand for travel right now. In our customer service will continue to be im- time? October 2020 Amex Trendex survey of con- portant to travelers. Our travel partners something that will undoubtedly continue sumers across the U.S., U.K., Mexico, Cana- have done great work to partner with ex- Hendley: When Covid-19 put travel on hold, da, Australia, Japan, and India, 84 percent perts and establish new cleanliness stan- we quickly pivoted to add value to the ar- to be necessary when travel begins to re- of people said that traveling is one of the dards, such as Delta Clean, Hilton Clean- eas that mattered most to our Card Mem- top activities they missed most. Consumers Stay, Marriott Commitment to Clean, and bers, such as limited-time statement cred- bound. are also saving up points and miles for fu- the Healthy Sail Panel. Similarly, before we its for online shopping and streaming and ture trips. Our November 2020 Amex Tren- reopened our Centurion Lounges, we in- wireless services; enhanced rewards for es- SkiftX spoke to Audrey Hendley, presi- dex survey found that over one-third of U.S. troduced the “Centurion Lounge Commit- sentials like dining and grocery spending; dent of American Express Travel, about the consumers are planning to use their credit ment,” which outlined additional safety new Uber Eats benefits; and new discounts company’s outlook for travel’s return, how card rewards points for flights. and cleanliness procedures to ensure our to small businesses to help offset tool and the company pivoted its offerings during lounges are safe, clean, and welcoming technology costs. And, for customers who Covid-19, and its expectations for traveler for Card Members as they start traveling are ready to travel, we’re adding more val- habits going forward. again. ue with offers across domestic hotels, air, and car rentals. We’ll continue to channel Travel advisors will also play an increas- the agility and speed we leveraged in 2020 ingly important role to help customers into how we adapt to what lies ahead. navigate an evolving travel environment.

SKIFT | 30 SkiftX: How do you expect the new con- plan to spend more on online purchases in sumer habits, behaviors, and business in- 2021 than in the past. novations we saw in 2020 to evolve in the long term? Digital and mobile commerce spending will continue to grow rapidly – we’re seeing this Hendley: In 2020, e-commerce boomed, with our own channels. In August 2020, we contactless payments became mainstream, saw an 11 percent year-over-year increase in and new retail experiences emerged, such as daily active American Express mobile app curbside pickup and mobile ordering. These users globally. This was even higher for our trends will continue into 2021 and beyond. millennial and Gen Z Card Members. Contactless payments are here to stay. In the While 2020 was challenging for small busi- August 2020 Amex Digital Payments Tren- nesses, it also showed their resilience. As the dex, 70 percent of U.S. merchants said their business landscape evolves, we’re focused on customers have requested contactless pay- designing offers and solutions that give small ments more since the start of the outbreak, businesses around the world the continued and 81 percent of merchants said they in- support they need — including the ability to tend to make contactless payments a per- earn member rewards points and cash back manent option for their customers. As con- on purchases — to navigate these uncertain sumers spend more time at home, they are times and come out stronger. also spending more on online shopping: 79 percent of consumers surveyed in December This content was created collaboratively 2020 said they have spent significantly more by American Express and Skift’s branded time shopping online in the past 12 months content studio SkiftX. than ever before, and 53 percent said they

SKIFT 31 DON’T JUST OPTIMISE YOUR CASHFLOW. SUPERCHARGE IT. Our Business Payments are flexible and innovative so your business can free up cash to fund growth. We could pay your suppliers in 5 days and you could get up to 55 days to pay us. It’s a ‘win-win’ situation. Find out more: americanexpress.com/uk/supercharge

MEGATRENDS: LOOKING AHEAD TO 2025 SKIFT 32 Photo credit: Salt Lake City International Airport SkHift TUakMe BLED AIRLINES With prospects for winning the planet’s climate change confrontation after the horrific pandemic BACK AWAY FROMnot appearing appreciably improved in 2025, the travel industry and travelers rethink their ANY BRASH NEWoperations and the way they wander the globe, respectively. Fear is a fantastic motivator. VENTURES M egatrend:Batteredbyyearsofastubbornpandemic,harsherhurricanes,more severe typhoons, sporadic wildfires, and escalating global temperatures that Editor’s Note: When mulling how to approach Skift’s annual Megatrends exercise, have melted glaciers, flooded coastal zones, and parched entire geographic expanses, the travel industry — and travelers — have been shocked into a new which traditionally looks at the upcoming year, we figured that 2021 could be consciousness in 2025. another tuBmuyltuRouustpheyrioMd guiveñnouzncertainties about the uneven global distribution and effectiveness of the vaccines, and the prospects of ongoing spikes and dips in coronavirus outbreaks. At the least, even under the most optimum circumstances, it would be a year of recovery and wound-licking for much of the travel industry The oldest millennials are approaching 40 years old now, and have spawned the more globally spirited Generation Alpha. Millennials, along with their younger Generation Z Skift Takethat outlasted 2020. We therefore decided to write our best Megatrends forecasts counterparts, with the oldest among the latter group now in their late-20s, were renowned before Covid-19 as being price-conscious, experience-seeking, and destination-indecisive. of what travel would look like in 2025, five years from now, when perhaps a sense Find them a deal and a potentially memorable experience, and boom — the vacation of a new normalcy would have a chance to settle in. Although we realize that was on. gecivoennomcliimc daTithseloecchagatlnioognbes,avtalhrepiaraeb’nslendso,epgmoulaitiirccaanaltbseterriutfhep,attthl2ye0c2ch5hawanilcnlebgroienf dgfresttshahbepiliawtny.doInermlrdeifc’lses,catinngd about the elikceolynshoampey,oaf 2n0d25i,nwae reuvesnhsptoecruelavteitdaalibzoeutthdeeairlsrtehavtemniugehtshtarpepaemn s, if that particular Megatrend is solid. Given the variables, for many of our individual But in 2025, many members of these maturing generations have turned things around, Megatrendasiwrliitnhiensthaisrpeufbolicragteiotnt,iwnegaolsor inncelugdleedcaticnogunpteerpoopinlteawrguhmoernut,njusstminall and become destination-decisive. cbaascekoaunrdprfboogurtnhso,isnatniecdastswioeensshiotnuprenthyooueut sapudabirftfuiecrirpebnasttewfiaanyrt. hAaafwtteadr aiyalllo,fergaoucmehwoafittnhhyeSskheifutbeabbdsoe.ubItasttehthde at That means that a growing segment of travelers — not everyone, for sure — is now mulling future of trawveisl.eSoofrorwthieshsafkuelotfhthiniskyeinarg’s Mtheagattirtenwdso, nim’tagminaetytoeura?re waking up the relative impact their trips may have if they opt for Botswana instead of Barcelona, or and reading them in 2025. choose to ride the rails closer to home instead of flying an Airbus A380 to a congested airport outside a teeming metropolis.

SKIFT | 33 FIVE YEARS OUT, M EGATREND: Five years who lost connections or even airports. MANY OF THE MAJOR after the worst pandemic in For the budget-minded, Surf Air Mobility AIRLINES BECAME modern day history crippled and competitors began flying Uber-priced GUN-SHY ON CAPACITY the airline industry in 2020, hybrid-electric flights in short hops to small EXPANSIONS, DESPITE social distancing and masks seem a distant cities that major airlines abandoned. STARTING TO SEE memory as companies reopened their INCREASED REVENUE. offices, and business and leisure travelers With the addition of fully electric flying taxis are once again flying. and vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, urban air mobility passenger travel to and While business conditions have improved from the smaller hubs became somewhat in 2025, not everything has changed. democratized. Underserved communities Commercial airlines are still feeling the at least had more options to avoid the effects of the pandemic, which led to tediousness of congested roadways on the historic furloughs and route reductions, as ground. airlines questioned their very survival. Out of sheer necessity, 2020 also brought Five years out, many of the major airlines about a plethora of technological advances became gun-shy on capacity expansions, and other innovations to help companies, despite starting to see increased revenue. communities and individuals cope with the isolation and be able to work cohesively Airlines focused recovery efforts on their from home. Video conferencing became largest hubs, often at the expense of smaller the go-to technology, supplanting the need cities. This resulted in millions of travelers for much business travel. in areas no longer served or under-served being forced to drive sometimes hours one The pandemic also forced airlines to focus on way to the nearest hub for a flight. efficiency, and by extension, sustainability. In some countries, the government forced Many are finding traveling with fewer flight this issue; in others, market forces did. But connections a fragmented, unpleasant, and the upshot is airlines began to take such rather cumbersome experience. new technologies such as hybrid-electric propulsion more seriously, breathing new With any market gap, disruptors move in to life into ideas that were once seen as far- take advantage. For the wealthy, private jets fetched or the domain of a far-off future. saw an uptick in business to service travelers

MEGATRENDS: LOOKING AHEAD TO 2025 SKIFT 34 Skift Take With prospects for winning the planet’s climate change confrontation after the horrific pandemic CRUISE LINES PARTNER,not appearing appreciably improved in 2025, the travel industry and travelers rethink their operations and the way they wander the globe, respectively. Fear is a fantastic motivator. PRUNE AND TAKE REFUGE IN THEIR PRIVATE ISLANDSEditor’s Note: When mulling how to approach Skift’s annual Megatrends exercise, egatrend:Batteredbyyearsofastubbornpandemic,harsherhurricanes,more severe typhoons, sporadic wildfires, and escalating global temperatures that which traditionally looks at the upcoming year, we figured that 2021 could be have melted glaciers, flooded coastal zones, and parched entire geographic expanses, the travel industry — and travelers — have been shocked into a new Manother tumultuBoyus Lpeeribodagwiveitn uLniclyertGainirtimes aabout the uneven global distribution and effectiveness of the vaccines, and the prospects of ongoing spikes and dips in coronavirus outbreaks. At the least, even under the most optimum circumstances, consciousness in 2025. it would be a year of recovery and wound-licking for much of the travel industry The oldest millennials are approaching 40 years old now, and have spawned the more globally spirited Generation Alpha. Millennials, along with their younger Generation Z that outlasted 2020. We therefore decided to write our best Megatrends forecasts counterparts, with the oldest among the latter group now in their late-20s, were renowned before Covid-19 as being price-conscious, experience-seeking, and destination-indecisive. of what travel would look like in 2025, five years from now, when perhaps a sense Find them a deal and a potentially memorable experience, and boom — the vacation was on. of a new normalcy would have a chance to settle in. Although we realize that But in 2025, many members of these maturing generations have turned things around, Skift Takegiven climate change variables, political strife, the chance of fresh pandemics, and and become destination-decisive. economic dislocations, there’s no guarantee that 2025 will bring stability. In reflecting That means that a growing segment of travelers — not everyone, for sure — is now mulling about tphaeCrtlioikceuvlliyadrs’hMsaempgeauotrlfet2in0yd2e5ias, wrsoeblidelov. eGwnivsehpnaetcshueplavutaesrdihaabebldeosu,ttfhodreemalsanthyaotfmouigrhitndhiavpidpueanl if that Megatrenwdsowriltdh’ins tmhisapjuobrliccartuioins,ewleinalesosininclutodeedfafecocuinetnercpyoinotvaergrudmrievnet, j—ust in cbaascek oaunrdpprforougrtnnho,isnatnigcdastwihoenipshotsup,renreyooduutuapcdaiirnftfigecripepnaottewrtiansyt.ohAaffttecdraaialllllo,, egaauncehdwoefittxhhpeSskaeinftbdeaibdnoegubtattehde future of torafvfeslh. SoorfeoritshleasnaPdhkoestooCtfroetdhibits: Woyienodassrtta’sr CoMruneisgbesaoctrreaewrnsdodusrr,ceeimvveageegtnainbuleeesya.ot aBumauarrtekemwt inaoMkaiunllongrctau,ipSnpagin. gWthilnoedsbrteaarlaCltriuviseesi.mpact their trips may have if they opt for Botswana instead of Barcelona, or and reading them in 2025. choose to ride the rails closer to home instead of flying an Airbus A380 to a congested environmental pushback stifles the growth of mass cruise atiorpuorrtisomuts.ide a teeming metropolis. Photo credit: Windstar Cruises crew source vegetables at a market in Mallorca, Spain. Windstar Cruises.

SKIFT | 35 Photo credit: Royal Caribbean’s Harmony of the Seas docked at the line’s private island, Labadee, in Haiti as seen on these private islands, and many prefer wrong with cruising and it has a negative on November 30, 2018. Flickr/Thank You, https://bit.ly/2X8Z8gy staying put at sea rather than venturing effect on the environment,” said Jim into multiple ports. Walker, a Florida-based maritime attorney M EGATREND: Years after for greater efficiency. The result? Big ships who runs Cruise Law News. One of the overtourism became a offer roller coasters on their decks and Destinations that were once heavily biggest environmental fights that cruise pressing issue, followed by additional outsized activities continue to dependent on big ships are dealing with lines continue to face in 2025 is their use the cruise-shaming trend surface to help drive up onboard revenue. fewer port calls, and focusing on niche of scrubbers, long found to cause cancer- Ports of call are fewer, as cruise lines reduce offerings from smaller lines. These niche linked discharge in ports, pollute waters, and that emerged post-Covid, crowds are their dependence on them, and instead cruise players emerged from the cheap otherwise negatively impact marine life. focus on the growth of their private islands, post-Covid divestiture and sale of older back on megaships in 2025, and cruise particularly in the Caribbean. ships that debuted in the 2000s. “It’s a Port citizens in North America and Europe, repeat of what we saw in the 1990s, when in particular, with localized movements and lines returned to generating billion-dollar Why offer shore excursions when one can there were some upstarts bringing on solid political partnerships, are making more sail to one’s own private beaches while vintage ships and offering niche kinds of headway in the passing of environmental earnings. But the nature of the cruise keeping 100 percent of the revenue in products,” said Ross Klein, a veteran cruise legislation banning scrubbers. But the cruise coffers? Besides, the lines still lure industry expert and professor at Memorial influence of broad-based coalitions such industry’s business model had to undergo cruisers with the promise of safety bubbles University of Newfoundland. as the Global Cruise Activist Network, born during Covid, remains uncertain. major shifts to make that happen. The travel bucket list isn’t going anywhere — port cities that faced overtourism pre- “If past history is an insight, the activism will The world’s biggest cruise companies have Covid continue to face the conundrum of continue losing some of its potency,” Klein been recouping their extensive losses up whether to reject tourist crowds in 2025 said, explaining the power of the cruise until this point by merging with other lines after suffering a debilitating multiyear industry to push back against these efforts. downturn. They’re using innovative ways After all, Key West, Florida’s big win against to control the crowds, such as higher day- mass cruising back in 2020 resulted from tripper fees like the ones Venice approved decades of militant activism that began in back in 2020. 2003. THE GREEN YEARS Meanwhile, 2025’s headlines report that the cruise industry’s major players are making What’s for sure? 2025 is greener. “More financial gains. Those funds will come in people are willing to be sensitive to handy for the heap of looming environmental environmental issues and not rebel at the bans and regulations, potentially signaling notion that perhaps there’s something the beginning of the end of megaships.

MEGATRENDS: LOOKING AHEAD TO 2025 SKIFT 36 THESkift Take RISE OF GLOBAL MOBILEWith prospects for winning the planet’s climate change confrontation after the horrific pandemic not appearing appreciably improved in 2025, the travel industry and travelers rethink their WALLETS UPENDSoperations and the way they wander the globe, respectively. Fear is a fantastic motivator. TRAVEL PAYMENTS M egatrend:Batteredbyyearsofastubbornpandemic,harsherhurricanes,more severe typhoons, sporadic wildfires, and escalating global temperatures that Editor’s Note: When mulling how to approach Skift’s annual Megatrends exercise, have melted glaciers, flooded coastal zones, and parched entire geographic expanses, the travel industry — and travelers — have been shocked into a new which traditionally looks at the upcoming year, we figured that 2021 could be consciousness in 2025. another tuBmuyltuMouastptehrioedwgivPenaurnscoerntasinties about the uneven global distribution and effectiveness of the vaccines, and the prospects of ongoing spikes and dips in coronavirus outbreaks. At the least, even under the most optimum circumstances, it would be a year of recovery and wound-licking for much of the travel industry Skift Takethat outlasted 2020. We therefore decided to write our best Megatrends forecasts The oldest millennials are approaching 40 years old now, and have spawned the more of what travel would look like in 2025, five years from now, when perhaps a sense globally spirited Generation Alpha. Millennials, along with their younger Generation Z of a new normalcy would have a chance to settle in. Although we realize that counterparts, with the oldest among the latter group now in their late-20s, were renowned before Covid-19 as being price-conscious, experience-seeking, and destination-indecisive. egcivoennomcliimc daTithseloecchapataniognnesd,vteahmreiareibc’slenkso,ipcgokulaistirtcaaanlrtsetteeridtfhe,aatths2e0ec2ch5oawnnilcldebropinfagfryesmtsahbepilniatnty.drIneemrveiofcleslu,cattinniogdn, Find them a deal and a potentially memorable experience, and boom — the vacation was on. about the aliknedly sbhyap2e0o2f 520t2r5a, vweeleevresn wspeecruelaitnedeavbeonutmdeoarlsethcaotnmtirgohlt ohafphpoenw if that particular Megatrend is solid. Given the variables, for many of our individual But in 2025, many members of these maturing generations have turned things around, Megatrendtshweityhibnothoiskpeudblitchateioinr, twreipaslsoainncdludsepdeanctouthnteeirrpomintoanrgeuymdeuntr,ijunsgt in and become destination-decisive. cbaascekoaunrdprftoohgrtenhoi,rsatwnicdaatwnioednsheotrupirnengyoousut. a different way. After all, each of these be debated That means that a growing segment of travelers — not everyone, for sure — is now mulling participate in that dialogue with Skift about the future of travel. So for the sake of this year’s Megatrends, imagine you are waking up the relative impact their trips may have if they opt for Botswana instead of Barcelona, or and reading them in 2025. choose to ride the rails closer to home instead of flying an Airbus A380 to a congested airport outside a teeming metropolis. Photo credit: A consumer using Alipay.

M EGATREND: Superapps, so- Smartphone makers and operating sys- FIFTEEN TO 20 PERCENT OF CUSTOMERS cial media and cryptocurren- tems grew in the payments field, too. Ap- WILL LEAVE THE BOOKING EXPERIENCE cies collided in 2025, with es- ple Pay accounted for 5 percent of all card IF THEIR PREFERRED PAYMENT METHOD tablished travel technology transactions worldwide in 2020, and dou- bled that over the next five years. Also IS NOT ACCEPTED. players and a new wave of working in the smartphone’s favor was bio- metric recognition, with features like retina -KRISTIAN GJERDING, CEO, CELLPOINT DIGITAL payment service integrators nearly strip- scanning giving mobile wallets heightened levels of authentication. ping out the last remnants of friction for Another pandemic byproduct was the many consumers. growth in contactless payments. A Skift and Oracle Hospitality survey back during The superapp concept spread well beyond the pandemic found that contactless pay- Asia. Large swathes of the population were ments, followed by digital room keys, and stuck in their homes during the 2020 pan- then digital messaging services were the demic, and that necessity of shopping on- top factors making travelers feel more com- line, and ordering takeaways, caused mo- fortable when staying in a hotel, as they al- bile payments to soar. lowed for easier social distancing. Inspired by WeChat Pay, more social media For the business travel sector, the combi- As a result, these changes pressed the whether it’s credit cards or alternative forms firms designed their own currencies. Face- nation of virtual payment cards and mobile travel industry into accepting a range of of payment,” said Kristian Gjerding, CEO of book’s Diem cryptocurrency spurred a new wallets gained further ground in 2025. emerging mobile wallet payments. And CellPoint Digital, back when helping to in- market of Instagram influencers selling brands that tapped into this prospered. tegrate Apple Pay into Southwest Airlines’ directly on the platform, boosted by lives- services. tream marketing. Global distribution systems stepped up. As airlines took more control of their own It was only going to go one way, as foretold direct retailing, the distribution systems five years earlier. The year 2020 “is the year built upon their technology and experi- that alternative payments will surpass cash ence to rapidly grow their presence in fi- and cards for travel industry transactions,” nancial services. said Bart Tompkins, managing director of payments at Amadeus. Airlines and hotels also came up against the demand for mobile payments. “Fif- By 2025, travel companies had upped their teen to 20 percent of customers will game to accept a level of alternative pay- leave the booking experience if their pre- ments, via mobile wallets, they’d never ferred payment method is not accepted, imagined in 2020.

SKIFT | 38 HOW ABU DHABI IS ADAPTING ITS EVENTS STRATEGY Skift Take In order to approach the same level of quality and engagement as in-person experiences, virtual and hybrid events need to be designed with safety and innovation as guiding principles. Event planners need an agile, forward- thinking destination partner to deliver on ever-changing attendee expectations.

D ESTINATION organizations Ali Hassan The Go Safe Certification program was increasingly using digital and contactless around the world are Al Shaiba developed to standardize the level of solutions to create innovative virtual and grappling with the reality Executive Director health and safety across all tourism and hybrid events that connect both on-ground that the events business of Tourism & hospitality establishments in Abu Dhabi and online attendees. Marketing through a set of rigorous measures, such has changed. While some as temperature checkpoints, regular san- For example, this year’s Abu Dhabi SkiftX spoke with Ali Hassan Al Shaiba, itization of public spaces, and social dis- International Petroleum Exhibition & are pushing back and executive director of tourism and marketing, tancing courses. This has helped uplift Conference was held completely virtually. to learn how DCT Abu Dhabi is strategically the confidence of consumers and enliven The organizer, dmg events, deployed AI- wishing for pre-2020 normalcy to return, adapting during these times and how it is the tourism sector. Within Abu Dhabi, 100 based matchmaking services to allow working to create the conditions needed percent of hotels and most major tourist delegates to network with their peers before the Department of Culture and Tourism for success in the next five years. attractions and shopping centers are now and during the event. Delegates were certified. also able to access the live and video-on- (DCT) Abu Dhabi is leaning in, rethinking SkiftX: What is Abu Dhabi doing to create demand stream on their device of choice. a foundation for safety and wellbeing Additionally, to ease payments for With Q&As and industry polls during the its meetings offering and experimenting that can restore traveler confidence? travelers from China, a key source market live sessions, delegates and attendees were for Abu Dhabi, card company UnionPay able to interact seamlessly. International recently partnered with Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank to implement SkiftX: What steps can event planners contactless payment transactions on the take to succeed in the virtual and hybrid bank’s 15,000 near-field communications event space? terminals in the UAE. Al Shaiba: The first step toward successfully with new tools and solutions to empower delivering a virtual event is ensuring we have the right knowledge and insights to event planners to level up their knowledge Ali Hassan Al Shaiba: Abu Dhabi has SkiftX: What role does technology play understand how the event can be brought received global recognition for its highly in helping Abu Dhabi boost audience to life with the same – or a higher level of – and skillsets. successful efforts in containing the spread engagement for virtual and hybrid quality as an on-site event experience. of Covid-19, and the emirate continues to events? On December 24, 2020, Abu Dhabi achieve positive outcomes as a result of The next step is making sure we have the reopened to international travelers and the combined initiatives and regulations Al Shaiba: Naturally, the pandemic has proper tools and skillsets to make the event continues to implement rigorous health introduced to minimize the spread of the transformed the way events are delivered. and safety measures, including a quarantine virus amongst residents and visitors. Our partners and stakeholders are period of 10 days.

SKIFT | 40 as engaging as possible. And then, most im- We encourage those working within the portantly, we need the right support so we meetings, incentives, conferences, and ex- can organize and deliver these events. We’re hibitions (MICE) sector to retrain their teams seeing a bigger appetite for innovative solu- to manage new event requirements. One tions and advanced technology that en- of DCT Abu Dhabi’s functions is to support gages attendees in various ways, whether upskilling for MICE sector teams by review- they’re attending in-person or virtually. ing incentives and co-funding the necessary training. In addition, with venues being un- SkiftX: How is Abu Dhabi rethinking in- derutilized, DCT Abu Dhabi works with ven- centives, training, and segment market- ue owners to attract additional segments, ing for 2021 and beyond? such as sporting events and destination weddings, to fill the gaps. Al Shaiba: Our strategies for successfully de- livering events revolve around having mul- As this year has so vividly shown, predict- tifaceted venues and skilled manpower. In ing future trends or shifts can be difficult, so line with the Abu Dhabi government’s dig- adaptability and agility are key to success in ital transformation vision, DCT Abu Dhabi the events space. is fulfilling its role as regulator and industry champion by reviewing incentive schemes This content was created collaboratively to assist venues, including hotels, to up- by DCT Abu Dhabi and Skift’s branded grade their technological infrastructures content studio SkiftX. and service offerings to remain competitive and support different event formats.

SUCCESS FEELS AT HOME HERE In this global capital for commerce and trade, connecting big names from around the world, you will discover a cutting-edge business hub. Bring your ambition to content-driven conferences, trade exhibitions or unique incentive programmes, and shake hands with opportunity at every turn. From energy and healthcare, to culture and tourism, doing business is great for business in Abu Dhabi.

MEGATRENDS: LOOKING AHEAD TO 2025 SKIFT 42 Skift Take THE ROBOTS YOU SEEWith prospects for winning the planet’s climate change confrontation after the horrific pandemic not appearing appreciably improved in 2025, the travel industry and travelers rethink their AND THE ONES YOUoperations and the way they wander the globe, respectively. Fear is a fantastic motivator. DON'T ACCELERATE Editor’s Note: When mulling how to approach Skift’s annual Megatrends exercise, M AUTOMATIONegatrend:Batteredbyyearsofastubbornpandemic,harsherhurricanes,more which traditionally looks at the upcoming year, we figured that 2021 could be severe typhoons, sporadic wildfires, and escalating global temperatures that another tumultuous period given uncertainties about the uneven global distribution have melted glaciers, flooded coastal zones, and parched entire geographic and effectiveness of the vaccines, and the prospects of ongoing spikes and dips in expanses, the travel industry — and travelers — havBe byeeSneshaocnkeOd in'Ntoea nilelw coronavirus outbreaks. At the least, even under the most optimum circumstances, consciousness in 2025. it would be a year of recovery and wound-licking for much of the travel industry The oldest millennials are approaching 40 years old now, and have spawned the more globally spirited Generation Alpha. Millennials, along with their younger Generation Z that outlasted 2020. We therefore decided to write our best Megatrends forecasts counterparts, with the oldest among the latter group now in their late-20s, were renowned of what travel would look like in 2025, five years from now, when perhaps a sense before Covid-19 as being price-conscious, experience-seeking, and destination-indecisive. Find them a deal and a potentially memorable experience, and boom — the vacation Skift Takeof a new normalcy would have a chance to settle in. Although we realize that was on. given climate change variables, political strife, the chance of fresh pandemics, and economic dislocations, there’s no guarantee that 2025 will bring stability. In reflecting about theTlhikeelypsahcapeeaonf 2d02e5x, tweenetveonfscpoecmulaptuedtearbiozuattdioeanls that might happen if that particular Megatrend is solid. Given the variables, for many of our individual But in 2025, many members of these maturing generations have turned things around, Megatrenvdasrwieithdininthi2s 0pu2b5li.caIntiocno, wuenatlsroieinscltuhdaedt apceorumntietrtpeoidntiatr,gsuommenet, just in and become destination-decisive. case our pcroogrpnoosrtiacatitoionnsstuaruntooumt aadtifefedretnht weairy.eAmftepr aloll,yeeacehsoof tuhtesoefbjeodbebsawteidthout much back and forth, and we hope you participate in that dialogue with Skift about the That means that a growing segment of travelers — not everyone, for sure — is now mulling future of thraevseil.tSaotfioornth. eWsaokrekoef rthsisnyeeaerd’seMdegtaotrhenodns,eimnaegwinesykouillasreawsaakrintgifuicpial itnheterelllaitgiveenimcpeact their trips may have if they opt for Botswana instead of Barcelona, or and readitnhgrtehaemteinne20d25t.heir livelihoods while others firms invested in acrhierpotoorsrateiontuoitnrsiidgdeettahhteeeeriarmilssintcgalofmsfesert.troophoolims. e instead of flying an Airbus A380 to a congested Photo credit: Excelland’s third-generation robot for use in hotels. Excelland

M EGATREND: The year 2025 labor. Chinese hotel groups Huazhu and hasn't seen widespread BTG Homeinns went so far as to invest adoption of Jetsons-like, in 2020 in ExcelLand, a Shenzhen-based humanoid robots. Yet many manufacturer that makes the robots they use to deliver food by room service. travel sector workers are trembling as they Formulaic or highly structured physical see various technologies pick up the pace activities are seeing the most upheaval. After authorities approved the use of at which they automate some work tasks. autonomous vehicles in controlled settings, self-driving mobility scooters in airport The 2020 pandemic prompted many terminals reduced the need for workers companies to computerize many processes to push physically impaired passengers to cope with reduced staffing. The crisis in wheelchairs. Meanwhile, drones and accelerated the digitization of customer robots slashed the security forces needed interactions by about three years, according to patrol airport perimeters. As seen in the to McKinsey & Co. chart below, coming out of the pandemic Yet during the recovery, many companies Photo credit: Animatronic images of robot dinosaurs at the front desk of Henn-na Hotel in Urayasu, Japan. H.I.S. Co. often saw little need to add back human Adoption of Contactless Technologies in Hotels hoteliers were implementing or considering better training and education for their installing a variety of contactless tech workforces. The pandemic accelerated a 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% services. trend of more education happening online. Some companies supported efforts by Adding contactless payment options 43% 38% 19% The \"robots\" you don't see, such as artificial organizations such as Typsy and Hosco to 28% intelligence and machine learning, can be help enhance the capabilities of workers New digital messaging services to 27% 44% 28% just as disruptive as the ones you do. Jobs using a mix of gamified and mobile-first handle guest requests involved in collecting and processing data video tutoring, and virtual and augmented 42% 32% likewise are taking a hit from automation. reality to create simulations for practicing Self-service check-in procedures Many hotel groups that slashed their skills. revenue management teams in 2020 Room keys/locks activated by smartphone 17% 42% 41% opted to use software for setting rates and The multi-decade trend in automation has managing room inventory as the crisis at least one upside for workers. Already made/making this change Considering this change in the future No plans to change ebbed. While not perfect, the software came out ahead more often than not when \"Automation drives productivity increases Source: 2020 Hospitality Recovery Survey, Skift and Oracle Hospitality. N=731 performing certain revenue management that raise total income in the economy,\" functions. noted an MIT report in 2020. Some of that additional money will be spent on more Some travel companies reacted to the frequent and distant travel, benefiting the rising level of automation by investing in sector, and the employees who serve it.

MEGATRENDS: LOOKING AHEAD TO 2025 MORESkift Take MAINSTREAM SHORT-TERM RENTALS COPE WITH NEW HEADWINDS By Dennis Schaal Skift Take In a push-and-pull scenario, short-term rentals are even more of a mainstream option in 2025 despite cities around the world increasingly regulating their growth. Photo credit: A rendering of a Four Seasons Private Residences property in Bangkok, Thailand at Chao Phraya River, Four Seasons Private Residences

SKIFT | 45 M EGATREND: The term Global Average Length of Stay in Vacation Rentals 2019 2020 So-called mom-and-pop hosts, namely “alternative accommodations,” people who owned just a property or already a near-anachronism 9 two, feel the squeeze and try to fend for in 2020, loses all meaning 8 themselves. Some turn their properties 7 into yearly rentals or office space when five years later. Most major 6 market conditions allow. Several startups 5 emerge that tried to bring the “local” back booking sites have long ceased listing 4 into short-term rentals, offering only listings 3 from individual hosts. It is a niche strategy, separate categories for hotels, homes or 2 though, with well-funded corporate hosts 1 having the upper hand. apartments, and favored “stays” as a catch- 0 While the majority of travelers in many all bucket because accommodation types parts of the world in 2025 regularly consider a broad array of accommodations’ choices, were melding together. including hotels and short-term rentals, cities that bounced back post-pandemic After all, in 2025 Airbnb is offering short- Jan increasingly put limitations on the growth term apartment and vacation rentals, has Jan of short-term rentals. Many cities, seeking revived its boutique hotel business, and is Jan to reclaim their affordable housing stock booking rooms for a scattered number of Jan or to curb house parties and other forms property owners at larger chains. Airbnb, Jan of disruption, either ban short-term rentals Expedia and Alibaba were also among the Feb outright, or severely crimp the number of booking sites marketing hotels and other Feb lawful registrations. stays under their own brands. Feb Feb Increased regulation of short-term rentals Mar led Airbnb to more closely resemble Mar Booking.com, Trip.com Group, and Expedia Mar as Airbnb opt to build its hotel portfolio, Mar get into the flights business, and go more Apr mainstream with its previously curated and Apr money-losing tours and activities’ business. Apr Apr After all, the growth has to come from Apr somewhere. May May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Oct Oct Oct Oct Source: Transparent. Data as of December 10, 2020 Four Seasons had portions of several of 2025, when traditional hotels, with more streams of platforms like Airbnb, and those its resorts dedicated to private residences. vigorous health and safety standards in of emerging competitors. This was good Hilton follows Marriott’s lead and dabbles place, reasserted themselves, although for business travelers and other guests in in vacation rentals while Hyatt revives its short-term rentals gained much ground in terms of getting a standardized experience, on-again and off-again participation in the the interim. albeit one with less local spice or contact sector. with individual hosts. There are competing dynamics at work The blockbuster Airbnb initial public offering that influence the short-term rental sector’s If professionalization led to iPads at of late 2020 took the company and short- trajectory. properties pointing guests to a nearby Chili’s term rentals even more mainstream in the Bar & Grill instead of host Juanita herding following years. As seen in the chart, a surge Professional vacation rental managers her guests to the Ear Inn in a landmark began in March and April 2020 when the and quasi-hotel companies become building in lower Manhattan for drinks and average length of stay in vacation rentals more influential, and their rentals tend to a poetry reading, the guests arrive anyway doubled to more than eight days around dominate the listings’ space and revenue if the rental price was right. the world. But that had lost its urgency in

PRODUCT MEDIOCRITY SEEDS A NEW ERA OF TRAVEL INDUSTRY DISRUPTION By Cameron Sperance Illustration by Nadia Sgaramella Skift Take If airlines and hotels end up cutting back too much, they would risk providing plenty of opportunities for new companies to emerge, fill gaps, and gobble up market share. But a faster recovery in corporate travel would make this issue moot for a lot of companies.

Photo credit: Wikimedia/Robert Couse-Baker. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Traveling_in_airport_terminal.jpg industry marked by increasing mediocrity replaced daily commutes to the office, from its biggest companies. which many companies did away with M EGATREND: While some hotels sending most flights through their hubs entirely. and airlines hobbled through to in 2025. Airlines had parked nearly entire Airlines like David Neeleman’s Breeze, sim- the other side of the crisis, leav- sub-fleets of aircraft like the Airbus A380 ilar to JetBlue before it, offer point-to-point Loyalty programs are packed with new ing many corporate casualties or Boeing 777, even those upgraded travel and improved onboard services to members as more employees are on behind them, in 2025 they look very differ- with new business class products, due meet demand from flyers turned off by ser- the road or at least checking into a hotel ent than they did before. In fact, there is a to catastrophic declines five years earlier vice and product declines. Companies like for a few nights per quarter to get up to wave of mediocrity that characterizes prod- in corporate travel that have yet to fully Dallas-based airline JSX also made strides, speed on happenings at work at periodic uct and service levels throughout portions recover. offering active business travelers the high- company-wide meetings. This has led to a of the travel experience. end service they expect without the head- blitz of major brands trying to differentiate Major airlines dialed back in-flight services ache of traipsing through airports crammed their products to attract more corporate The hotel lobby experience is less personal and capital expenditure projects at airports with leisure travelers simply looking for the customers. than it was pre-pandemic due to the indus- as a way to shore up cash during the worst most affordable fares. try migrating toward contactless features, of the pandemic. The less-than-robust re- Airlines similarly ramped up their services including mobile check-in and check-out turn of business travelers who expected Many hotels have retreated to offering daily in the years right after the pandemic to functions from smartphone apps. Hotels these array of services meant many of housekeeping and high-touch features at appeal to the limited number business sliced labor costs, especially for house- these offerings never came back to their only upper-tier properties. Some of the soft customers there were flying in the early keeping. Daily cleaning and various room former quality levels after the pandemic. brands tied to big chains do offer some stages of the recovery. With more business services are no longer standard across all levels of pre-pandemic services. But there travelers back on the road and in the air in segments of the market, especially more OPPORTUNITY BECKONS is disruption afoot from a growing roster 2025, airlines are once again trying to outdo affordable brands geared toward leisure of boutique brands that global chains one another with private suites in business travelers and drive-to markets. But the cost-cutting has also presented like Marriott or Accor have somehow class and higher tier qualifications in their an opportunity for niche carriers and hotel yet to acquire. They are filling gaps with loyalty programs. Legacy airlines gutted point-to-point brands to come in and disrupt a travel concierge-like services, and counteracting routes over the last five years in favor of the contactless push among many brands Yes, major airline CEOs in the United States with traditional hospitality services. have kept their word on not reintroducing change fees, but airlines are also playing COUNTERPOINT: Although the pandemic it conservative in some ways: The days of was a brutal time and cratered business Etihad-style apartments in the sky are an travel demand, the travel industry has anachronism. fully returned in 2025 to pre-pandemic performance levels. There are always opportunities for disrup- tion, but those windows are often limited to Business travel may look slightly different niche players in select geographies or mar- with fewer quick trips, but large companies ket segments. Few are truly going head-to- conduct quarterly meetings, making head with legacy airlines or the biggest ho- convention hotels as popular as ever. These tel companies.

MEGATRENDS: LOOKING AHEAD TO 2025 SKIFT 48 Skift Take RENEWED STRENGTHWith prospects for winning the planet’s climate change confrontation after the horrific pandemic not appearing appreciably improved in 2025, the travel industry and travelers rethink their MATTERS IN 2025operations and the way they wander the globe, respectively. Fear is a fantastic motivator. By Dennis Schaal Illustration by Nadia Sgaramella Editor’s Note: When mulling how to approach Skift’s annual Megatrends exercise, M egatrend:Batteredbyyearsofastubbornpandemic,harsherhurricanes,more which traditionally looks at the upcoming year, we figured that 2021 could be severe typhoons, sporadic wildfires, and escalating global temperatures that another tumultuous period given uncertainties about the uneven global distribution have melted glaciers, flooded coastal zones, and parched entire geographic and effectiveness of the vaccines, and the prospects of ongoing spikes and dips in expanses, the travel industry — and travelers — have been shocked into a new coronavirus outbreaks. At the least, even under the most optimum circumstances, consciousness in 2025. Skift Takeit would be a year of recovery and wound-licking for much of the travel industry The oldest millennials are approaching 40 years old now, and have spawned the more that outlasted 2020. We therefore decided to write our best Megatrends forecasts gooecffivoweannhonamcetliwimtcradacLnvitooiseeqlromlmcucwhaaiiaodntlcunioigylgtdneywsol,ovowtuaohutkrealidarolseibk’hfsleteanthsivhno,eepeg2oalu0ilpaif2tce5iracha,lnaainfnlindtvseeceteeeryimftfeheotoa,airtcrthsst2,eehf0tartc2oenlhe5mdaswinntnitlrc.olhoebAwenrol,tinfhwgbgfohreeuesestgssnahthtbptpimwleriatraenyha.vdaIrnneeepamalsrelgciiafzcloeeess,cmmetatnhinnpesagdetnantsieFwcgboilsenaoufsbdonorattelnehlyCr.epomsavpriidtrasi-t,1dew9deiaatshGl batehneneidenorgaaldtppieoroisnctteeaA-nmcltpoiaohnlnlasygc. miMtohuieellsmel,aneotxntrpeiaareblgsrlie,reoaneulcoxpepn-negsroeiwewenkiitcnihnetg,htah,eaneinrdirldabytdeooe-uo2snmt0ignse,aw—rtieoGrtneeh-nerineevdnraaeoctcwiaoisntniivoeednZ. about the clikoeulylsdhafipneaonf 2c0i2a5l,lyweeenvgeninsepeecrultahteedirabwoautydsetahlsrtohuatgmhigthhtehacprpiseins. if that particular Megatrend is solid. Given the variables, for many of our individual But in 2025, many members of these maturing generations have turned things around, MegatrendWs weitahkinetrhics opumblpicaatnioine,swewailtsho infeclwudeedr arecosuonuterrcpeosintsaorlgdumaesnste, jtusstaint steanedpbecome destination-decisive. bcaascekoaunrdprfdoogirstnhco, osatunicdnattwiosen, shaotnuprden yodourutoappdapirftfeiecdripenaotteuwtian.yt. hAafttedr aialllo, egaucehwofitthheSskeiftbeabdoeubtattehde That means that a growing segment of travelers — not everyone, for sure — is now mulling future of travel. So for the sake of this year’s Megatrends, imagine you are waking up the relative impact their trips may have if they opt for Botswana instead of Barcelona, or and reading them in 2025. choose to ride the rails closer to home instead of flying an Airbus A380 to a congested airport outside a teeming metropolis.

M EGATREND: There are winners venture in China with Tripadvisor and other Despite regulatory focus on Google, which that accelerated globally in 2020 led over and losers coming out of any factors, the long-time ties between Trip.com had the largest travel business among big the next few years to a healthy uptick of crisis, and by 2025, many of Group and Booking Holdings loosen. tech coming out of the Covid crisis, you people of color and women ascending these are evident. But it isn’t couldn’t say that the travel industry has in travel’s corporate board rooms. Even always a yes or no, clearly defined thing DRAFTING ON A DIGITAL-FIRST clearly emerged triumphant over Google in airlines, long a bastion of old boys clubs, because there are nuances, too. MINDSET 2025. Yes, there is some relief from Google see a smattering of women CEOs ordering blatantly favoring its own travel products new aircraft, and making capacity and More generally, In the online travel Asia had already been gaining strength in over those of competitors, and regulators route network decisions. But the challenge competitive sweepstakes in 2025, the clear travel over the last decade. Trip.com Group, pressured Google into giving travel search for diversity and inclusion activists within winners are Booking Holdings, Airbnb, and which controls Chinese short-term rental results more free daylight on its pages. But travel businesses — and the movement at China’s Trip.com Group, formerly known as business Tujia and India’s MakeMyTrip in antitrust regulators are more focused on large — is to keep up the pressure year after Ctrip. In these instances, the strong clearly everything but the official paperwork, and reversing big tech’s acquisitions and alleged year, and to acknowledge that the mere get stronger. fellow Chinese hotel-booking and delivery political bias than on democratizing Google’s appointment of diverse C-Suite executives company Meituan gain market share by travel business specifically. And Google’s and mid-level leadership is only an initial These companies emerge from the 2025. Given that the vast majority of travel- army of lawyers and lobbyists found ways win. pandemic with ample cash, and leap- selling was still offline in China in 2020, these to maneuver, and dilute the potentially frog competitors, carried by a wave of two companies deftly position themselves harshest consequences. COUNTERPOINT: Business travel roared consolidation, and the failures of and to take advantage of the pandemic- back much quicker than most people liquidation sales at smaller online travel induced digital buying spree. In China, Hotels chains had leaned into online travel had imagined starting in late 2021, as agencies like BookIt.com and short-term this turned into increased online adoption, agency distribution in 2021 because many vaccines breathed confidence into most rental firms like Stay Alfred. Both of these meaning people booking more travel from consumers were still feeling city-averse, parts of the world, and cities recovered. booking sites — like countless others in every smartphone screens rather than calling or and favored the relative solitude of short- Commercial real estate brokers in urban travel sector — fell by the wayside in the stopping by a travel agency. term rentals in bucolic locales. But these centers around the world signed deals to early stages of the pandemic like forgotten impulses fade as vaccine needles penetrated reopen huge office campuses and remote footnotes in a college term paper. The backyard travel Megatrend, which billions of arms, and the Marriotts, HIltons, and scattered workers returned to their found travelers taking more frequent Accors, and InterContinentals recaptured desks and cubicles. Many of the big online travel players trips and feeling more comfortable about direct bookings, and do much to regain are still competing vociferously among vacationing domestically and regionally, profitability in 2025. This meant that airlines, hotels that themselves in 2025 while also partnering strengthens Asia’s, and particularly China’s, catered to business travelers, and travel with one another in typical frenemy fashion, global market share in travel. Alternative accommodations are even more management companies pick up where although these relationships ebb and flow. mainstream as a vacation option in the five they left off in the heady days of 2019, For example, given Trip.com Group’s joint On the losing end of things, despite their years since Covid-19 arrived. But the short- and elite flyers resume their mileage-runs status as industry leaders, Airbnb and term rental versus hotel market imbalance anew just because they could. Booking.com, as well as Google, Facebook in the early days of pandemic recovery and Alibaba, become subject to more revert toward the hotels’ favor. Covid-19 had been stopped in its tracks, stringent regulations and restrictions on and although there was always concern, their growth in many parts of the world. And let’s not forget issues of diversity and so far there has been no such thing as inclusion. The Black Lives Matter protests Covid-25.

SKIFT | 50 Unlimited Acces Attend Every Online Expert Research to Skift's Daily Event in 2021 Industry Landscapes Skift Recovery Index News, Analysis, and Live and On Demand Exclusive Stories research.skift.com live.skift.com skift.com/pro