Detached Single Family September 2021
Please Note The contents of this report only reflect detached single family (DSF), unless where otherwise noted to include detached single family (DSF) or (ASF+DSF) homes in the 7 Metro Denver Counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert and Jefferson. This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by REcolorado®, Inc. REcolorado®, Inc. does not guarantee nor is it in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by REcolorado®, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Dates shown on graphs for timeframes included. For additional sourcing references please refer to the back of the report. We highly encourage you to review reports published by your REALTOR® Board and REcolorado®. Each report covers a different geography and will report different values for all metrics.
MARKET DYNAMICS.
Greater Metro Denver Update September 2021 DSF ASF Metric Detached Single Family Attached Single Family Sep-21 MOM YOY Sep-21 MOM YOY Active * 2,240 10.5% -20.6% 1,022 0.5% -49.7% Pending * 3,727 -11.1% -11.0% 1,544 -7.6% 20.0% Closed * 3,636 -7.2% -11.0% 1,544 -7.6% -8.5% Expired * 358 22.6% -10.1% 138 20.0% -54.3% ONE PAGE SNAPSHOT Odds of Selling 73.9% -3.8% 1.9% 84.2% 9.0% 25.9% Close/List Price Ratio 102.0% -0.9% 1.5% 2.0% Close/Original Price Ratio 97.7% -2.8% -1.9% 101.8% -0.2% -0.9% Average Sold Price 686,475 0.6% 16.1% 16.0% Median Sold Price 575,000 -0.9% 13.9% 98.0% -3.3% 13.8% % of Closed Transactions with Reduced Prices * $ 19.4% 5.3% -8.1% $ 441,638 1.1% -10.4% $ $ 375,584 1.5% 10.0% 1.9% Average Price Reduction from Original Price * -5.3% -0.2% -1.0% -4.7% -0.2% -0.6% % Transactions Under Asking Price 24.5% 4.3% -7.0% 22.2% -12.0% -14.8% % Closed Trasactions Full Price Offer 18.9% 3.3% -4.8% 25.8% -15.9% -6.3% % Closed Transactions Over Asking Price 56.6% -7.6% 11.8% 52.0% 26.1% 21.1% Average DOM * 12 20.0% -42.9% 15 7.1% -46.4% Median DOM * 5 0.0% -16.7% 5 -16.7% -37.5% Pending in 7 Days or Less (Flash Sale) 62.3% -5.5% 10.8% 25.4% -38.1% 25.9% 0.4 0.0% -42.0% 0.3 -53.8% -76.7% Months of Inventory * Dirstressed Transactions 0.2% 0.0% -0.1% 0.3% -1.4% 0.1% Average Interest Rate 2.90% 0.06% -0.01% 2.90% 0.06% -0.01% Average P&I Payment (based on median) $ 2,612 1.5% 16.5% $ 2,612 1.5% 16.5% This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by REcolorado®, Inc. REcolorado®, Inc. does not guarantee nor is it in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by REcolorado®, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Dates shown on graphs for timeframes included. Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, Jefferson. Average Interest Rate and Average P&I Payments are based on the value from FreddieMac.com using a 10% down payment on a 30 year fixed term. Mortgage calculations are for informational use only and not a guaratnee. Please speak with licensed Loan Officer for details. Metrics containing ( * ) indicated this measurement can be tracked weekly and have more current values in the COVID-19 Weekly Report available from First American Title.
- 0.0 20,000 25,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Metric 1/1/2005 Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Market Dynamics 5/1/2005 Current 9/1/2005 MOM 1/1/2006 YOY 5/1/2006 9/1/2006 MSI 1/1/2007 MSI Active New Listings Pending Sold Expired Predictive MSI 5/1/2007 0.4 9/1/2007 12.0 0.0% 1/1/2008 -42.0% 5/1/2008 9/1/2008 Active 1/1/2009 5/1/2009 2,240 9/1/2009 10.5% 1/1/2010 -20.6% 5/1/2010 9/1/2010 New Listings 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 4,103 9/1/2011 4% 1/1/2012 -27% 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 Pending 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 3,727 9/1/2013 -11.1% 1/1/2014 -11.0% 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 Sold 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 3,636 9/1/2015 -7.2% 1/1/2016 -11.0% 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 Expired 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 358 9/1/2017 22.6% 1/1/2018 -10.1% 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 Predictive 1/1/2019 MSI 5/1/2019 0.4 9/1/2019 0.0% 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 -42.0% 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021 MARKET DYNAMICS HISTORIC 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 DSF
DSF INSERT TEXT HERE MARKET DYNAMICS ACTIVE BASELINE Active inventory for sale is typically at it’s highest in the late summer and the lowest inventory in the coldest winter months.
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached Average 2013-2019 DSF 2021 INSERT TEXT HEREPending Unit Historic Baseline as compared to Pre and Post COVID-19 2020 4,652 4,988 4,595 4,808 MARKET DYNAMICS PENDING BASELINE 4,188 3,983 3,280 4,527 4,466 4,191 3,064 3,176 2,284 4,042 3,069 3,846 2,776 3,059 3,973 2,266 3,649 3,868 4,099 3,932 3,662 3,513 3,293 2,240 2,610 2,968 3,175 2,537 2,009 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The most units transitioning to the under contract status is typically from March through July.
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached Average 2013-2019 DSF 2021 Closed Unit Historic Baseline as compared to Pre and Post COVID-19 2020 4,669 MARKET DYNAMICS CLOSED BASELINE 4,099 4,173 4,087 4,241 4,327 3,394 3,918 3,727 3,198 2,988 2,555 2,298 3,610 3,657 3,330 2,316 1,986 2,419 3,356 3,377 3,859 4,084 3,893 3,736 1,975 3,006 3,276 3,186 2,765 2,842 1,974 2,157 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Closed transactions follow behind the units being placed under contract by approximately 30-35 days with the heaviest closing months from May to August.
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached DSF INSESuRpplTy inTMEonXthsTbyHPriEce RRanEge September 2021 5.0M+ 7.5 4.0-5.0M 9.7 MONTHS OF INVENTORY BY PRICE RANGE 3.0-4.0M 1.9 2.0-3.0M 1.8 1.5-2.0M 1.2 1.0-1.5M 1.0 800-999K 1.0 600-799K 0.7 400-599K 0.4 200-399K 0.4 0-199K 0.5 All Prices 0.6 The Metro Denver Real Estate Market continues to be drastically under- supplied of homes at the current rate of demand. A market in balance would be closer to a 6 month supply of inventory. Values below 1.0 month indicate a high likelihood of multiple offers.
DSFMONTHS OF INVETORY BY ZIP CODE ASF 2.95 0.63 0.18 The suburban surge and demand for larger homes with more room continues into 2021. More urban densely populated areas are still far from a balanced market but are slightly less competitive than the outer ring suburbs.
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Metric 1/1/2005 Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Active vs. Balanced Market 5/1/2005 Current 9/1/2005 MOM 1/1/2006 YOY 5/1/2006 9/1/2006 Active 1/1/2007 5/1/2007 2,240 9/1/2007 10.5% 1/1/2008 -20.6% 5/1/2008 9/1/2008 Active for 1/1/2009 Active Balance 5/1/2009 22,362 9/1/2009 -11.1% 1/1/2010 -11.0% 5/1/2010 9/1/2010 % of Balance 1/1/2011 Active Units for Balance 5/1/2011 10.0% 9/1/2011 2.0% 1/1/2012 -1.2% 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 % of Balance 5/1/2013 0.0%9/1/201320.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% 160.0% DSF 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 180.0% 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021 % OF BALANCE HISTORIC
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached DSF INSERT TEXT HEREActive Unit Count vs. Active Required for Balance by Price Range September 2021 22,362 5.0M+ 30 % OF BALANCE BY PRICE RANGE 4.0-5.0M 24 3.0-4.0M 2.0-3.0M 29 1.5-2.0M 30 1.0-1.5M 800-999K 31 600-799K 60 81 180 90 450 214 1,278 309 2,058 648 5,904 400-599K 712 10,530 200-399K 94 1,836 2,240 0-199K 2 12 All Prices The Metro Denver Real Estate Market currently has only 9.1% of the homes required to offset demand. The red bar represents how many homes would need to be actively listed to create a 6.0 month supply of homes, or a balanced market.
DSF ASF 43.5% 10.2% 2.0% % OF BALANCE BY ZIP CODE Zip codes in red are the most undersupplied areas in Metro Denver. At most in LoDo there is still only 57.5% of the amount of inventory to offset demand. A market in balance would display a value of 100%.
ODDS OF SELLING.
Metric 1/1/2005 Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Odds of Selling 5/1/2005 Current 9/1/2005 100.0% MOM 1/1/2006 90.0% YOY 5/1/2006 80.0% 9/1/2006 70.0% Odds of 1/1/2007 60.0% Selling 5/1/2007 50.0% 73.9% 9/1/2007 40.0% -3.8% 1/1/2008 30.0% 1.9% 5/1/2008 20.0% 9/1/2008 10.0% 1/1/2009 0.0% 5/1/2009 9/1/2009 DSF 1/1/2010 5/1/2010 9/1/2010 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021 ODDS OF SELLING HISTORIC
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached Average 2013-2019 DSF 2021 INSERT TEXT HEREOdds of Selling Baseline as compared to Pre and Post COVID-19 2020 72.9% 73.4% 72.0% 77.9% 76.4% 79.0% ODDS OF SELLING BASELINE 70.8% 62.4% 62.1% 60.1% 61.4% 52.6% 49.6% 53.5% 58.5% 87.2% 58.2% 55.1% 52.0% 50.7% 47.8% 75.1% 79.3% 84.2% 80.0% 81.5% 74.9% 77.8% 73.9% 58.1% 49.4% 49.8% 49.6% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The Odds of Selling is a ratio of homes for sale in each month, those that went under contract and closed vs those that remained in the market and did not sell. Since this is a direct ratio of the buyers and sellers in a market, the higher this number is the more likely it is that a home will sell. If this number is lower, that means that buyers will have more negotiating power and be less likely to compete against multiple offers.
INSERT TEXT HERE DSF ASF 39.4% 73.6% 89.8% ODDS OF SELLING BY ZIP CODE Zip codes in red are the most competitive for buyers looking to purchase. There is correlation to lower priced homes having a higher amount of demand and increased odds of selling.
SHOWING DATA.
- 0.0 60,000 120,000 140,000 40,000 100,000 20,000 80,000 Metric 1/1/2011 Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Showing Data 5/1/2011 Current 9/1/2011 MOM 1/1/2012 YOY 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 Total 1/1/2013 Showings 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 97,048 1/1/2014 0.2 5/1/2014 -0.2 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 Shows per 5/1/2015 Total Showings Listing 9/1/2015 15.3 1/1/2016 14.2% 5/1/2016 10.1% 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 Total Showable 5/1/2017 Shows per Listing Properties 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 6,343 5/1/2018 5.9% 9/1/2018 -25.1% 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 DSF 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 Total Showable Properties 9/1/2020 25.0 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021 SHOWING DATA HISTORIC 10.0 20.0 5.0 15.0
-0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 Metric 1/1/2011 Total Showings Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Showings vs. Contracts 5/1/2011 Current 9/1/2011 MOM 1/1/2012 YOY 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 Total 1/1/2013 Pending Showings 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 97,048 1/1/2014 0.2 5/1/2014 -0.2 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 Pending 5/1/2015 Average Shows to Pending 9/1/2015 3,727 1/1/2016 -11.1% 5/1/2016 -11.0% 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 Average Shows 5/1/2017 to Pending 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 23.3 5/1/2018 11.0% 9/1/2018 -5.3% 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 5 10 15 20 25 30 DSF 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 Median Shows to Pending 9/1/2020 35 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021 SHOWS TO PENDING HISTORIC
DAYS TO PENDING.
00 40 0.3 0.6 0.9 140 80 120 Metric 1/1/2005 0.2 Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Average and Median Days to Pending 5/1/2005 20 0.5 0.8 Current 9/1/2005 60 MOM 1/1/2006 0.1 100 0.7 YOY 5/1/2006 0.4 9/1/2006 -42.9% 20.0% 12.0 5 Average Days Median Days 1/1/2007 Average Days on Market on Market on Market 5/1/2007 -16.7% 0.0% 9/1/2007 1/1/2008 Pending in 7 5/1/2008 Median DOM Days or Less 9/1/2008 1/1/2009 2,267 5/1/2009 -14.7% 9/1/2009 7.7% 1/1/2010 5/1/2010 9/1/2010 % Pending 7 Days or Less 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 1 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 DSF 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021 DAYS TO PENDING HISTORIC
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached Average 2013-2019 DSF 2021 Average DOM Baseline as compared to Pre and Post COVID-19 2020 45 43 36 29 25 23 23 25 28 31 34 39 18 DAYS TO PENDING AVERAGE BASELINE 43 35 27 18 21 22 23 21 21 22 19 21 18 15 12 8 8 10 12 9 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Days on Market is the average length of time it takes from the date the property is listed until the property receives a contract for purchase from a buyer, and the property is shifted to a Pending status. This metric does not include the time from being placed in the pending status to the closing date.
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached Average 2013-2019 DSF 2021 Median DOM Baseline as compared to Pre and Post COVID-19 2020 23 16 7 7 17 20 DAYS TO PENIDNG MEDIAN BASELINE 23 10 8 7 5 5 5 10 7 5 4 8 11 6 13 14 6 5 6 6 5 6 5 4 4 5 4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Median Days on Market is the length of time it takes for 50% of homes receives a contract for purchase from a buyer, and the property is shifted to a Pending status. This metric does not include the time from being placed in the Pending status to the Closing date.
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached DSF INSEAvReraTge DTayEs oXn TMarHketEbyRPrEice Range September 2021 205 5.0M+ 4.0-5.0M 3 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET BY PRICE RANGE 3.0-4.0M 80 2.0-3.0M 39 1.5-2.0M 23 1.0-1.5M 12 800-999K 14 600-799K 12 400-599K 10 200-399K 8 0-199K 40 All Prices 12 Average Days on Market by price range shows that nearly all homes under $1,000,000 are pending within 2 weeks. Buyers need to move quickly as demand remains at historically high levels.
DSFAVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET BY ZIP CODE ASF 43 13 4 Zip codes in red are the most competitive for buyers looking to purchase. Days to Pending have reached as low as 3-5 days in many zip codes.
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached Average 2013-2019 DSF 2021 % Properties Pending in 7 Days or Less Baseline as compared to Pre and Post COVID-19 2020 92.9% DAYS TO PENDING AVERAGE BASELINE 77.8% 83.1% 83.9% 82.8% 62.6% 45.8% 56.6% 62.3% 56.7% 58.4% 57.8% 59.5% 59.4% 52.9% 67.8% 62.3% 51.4% 53.8% 50.3% 29.5% 40.0% 48.4% 54.8% 56.1% 53.9% 49.1% 43.5% 30.4% 38.3% 35.8% 33.7% 31.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec This is the percentage of units that went under contract within one week of being listed. Again, the faster homes sell, the larger and more competitive the pool of potential buyers is for properties in Metro Denver. Historically the fastest months are represented by those homes listed in March, April and May.
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached DSF Pending in 7 Days or Less by Price Range September 2021 5.0M+ 25.0% 100.0% 4.0-5.0M 3.0-4.0M 31.3% PENDING IN 7 DAYS OR LESS BASELINE 2.0-3.0M 39.1% 1.5-2.0M 1.0-1.5M 56.2% 800-999K 62.8% 600-799K 400-599K 57.6% 200-399K 59.5% 64.6% 0-199K 0.0% 73.4% All Prices 62.3% It is more likely than not to see properties up to $4,000,000 under contract in less than 1 week.
DSF ASF 22.7% 61.6% 80.5 PENDING IN 7 DAYS OR LESS BY ZIP CODE In Metro Denver there are zip codes where over 90% of homes are likely to sell in less than 7 days when reviewing all zip codes 74.9% are pending after the first weekend of being on market.
SOLD PRICE & RATIOS.
$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 Metric 1/1/2005 Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Average and Median Sold Price 4/1/2005 Current 7/1/2005 MOM 10/1/2005 YOY 1/1/2006 4/1/2006 16.1% 0.6% -0.9% $686,475 $575,000 Price Average Sold Median Sold 7/1/2006 10/1/2006 13.9% Price 1/1/2007 4/1/2007 7/1/2007 Average Sold Price 10/1/2007 1/1/2008 Median Sold Price 4/1/2008 7/1/2008 10/1/2008 1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/2009 10/1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/2010 10/1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/2011 10/1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/2012 10/1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/2013 10/1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/2014 10/1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/2015 10/1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/2016 10/1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/2017 10/1/2017 1/1/2018 4/1/2018 7/1/2018 10/1/2018 1/1/2019 4/1/2019 7/1/2019 10/1/2019 1/1/2020 4/1/2020 7/1/2020 10/1/2020 1/1/2021 4/1/2021 7/1/2021 SOLD PRICE DSF
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached Average 2013-2019 DSF 2021 Average Monthly Price Change Baseline as compared to Pre and Post COVID-19 2020 6.9% AVERAGE SOLD PRICE CHANGE BASELINE 4.5% 3.7% 3.9% 3.4% 0.1% 1.0% 4.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 2.7% 1.3% 5.5% 1.1% 4.5% 0.6% 3.5% 3.4% -1.8% 0.8% -0.4% -0.4% -1.0% -2.1% -0.8% 0.0% -4.3% -1.4% -1.9% -2.6% -2.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec This shows how prices ebb and flow based on seasonal selling cycles. When the values are above 0% home prices are rising month over month, conversely when the numbers are below 0% home prices are falling back. Historically the bulk of appreciation is established by properties closing between February through June.
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached Average 2013-2019 DSF 2021 Median Monthly Price Change Baseline as compared to Pre and Post COVID-19 2020 3.2% MEDIAN SOLD PRICE CHANGE BASELINE 2.9% 6.3% 2.7% 2.6% 1.6% 2.1% 3.1% 3.6% 3.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 3.8% 3.2% -1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 1.5% 1.9% 1.9% -1.0% 0.0% -1.7% -0.7% -1.8% -1.2% -0.6% 0.0% -0.8% -2.5% -0.9% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec This shows how prices ebb and flow based on seasonal selling cycles. When the values are above 0% home prices are rising month over month, conversely when the numbers are below 0% home prices are falling back. Historically the bulk of appreciation is established by properties closing between February through June.
DSF ASF $1,243,419 $613,497 $312,367 AVERAGE SOLD PRICE BY ZIP CODE Zip codes in red are likely to become increasingly more competitive if interest rates continue to rise due to a shift in affordability.
85.0% 90.0% 95.0% 100.0% 105.0% 110.0% Metric 1/1/2006 Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Average Close to List and Original to Closed Price 4/1/2006 Current 7/1/2006 List/Close Price Ratio Original/Close Price Ratio MOM 10/1/2006 YOY 1/1/2007 4/1/2007 1.5% -1.9% -0.9% 102.0% 7/1/2007List to Close Original to Close 10/1/2007Price Ratio Price Ratio -2.8% 97.7% 1/1/2008 4/1/2008 7/1/2008 DSF 10/1/2008 1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/2009 10/1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/2010 10/1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/2011 10/1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/2012 10/1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/2013 10/1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/2014 10/1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/2015 10/1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/2016 10/1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/2017 10/1/2017 1/1/2018 4/1/2018 7/1/2018 10/1/2018 1/1/2019 4/1/2019 7/1/2019 10/1/2019 1/1/2020 4/1/2020 7/1/2020 10/1/2020 1/1/2021 4/1/2021 7/1/2021 AVERAGE CLOSE TO LIST AND ORIGINAL PRICE RATIOS
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached Average 2013-2019 DSF 2021 % of Close to List Price Ratios Baseline as compared to Pre and Post COVID-19 2020 105.5% 106.0% LIST TO CLOSEPRICE RATIO BASELINE 104.2% 104.5% 99.6% 102.0% 102.9% 100.5% 100.7% 102.0% 101.2% 100.1% 100.5% 99.9% 100.2% 100.4% 100.5% 100.7% 100.8% 98.8% 99.5% 98.8% 99.4% 99.9% 100.2% 100.4% 100.3% 100.0% 99.7% 99.3% 99.1% 99.0% 98.7% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec This is the percent of asking price received by the seller from the closed transaction. If this number is over 100% it means that multiple offers were likely at that of time of year. This number is usually highest in the late spring-early summer months as a result of multiple offers due to low supply and more buyer activity.
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached DSF Percent of Close to List Price Ratio Price by Days on Market September 2021 5.0M+ 92.3% CLOSE TO LIST PRICE RATIO BY PRICE RANGE 4.0-5.0M 109.0% 3.0-4.0M 2.0-3.0M 96.9% 1.5-2.0M 101.1% 101.7% 1-1.5M 101.7% 800-999K 102.3% 600-799K 102.0% 400-599K 102.3% 200-399K 100.9% 0-199K 88.5% All Prices 102.0% Average Close to List Prices this month indicated that multiple offers were to be expected for the bulk of homes under $2,000,000. Even in super luxury markets offers made by buyers were very strong.
DSF ASF 97.2% 101.9% 114.2% AVERAGE CLOSE TO LIST PRICE RATIO BY ZIP CODE The highest Close to List price ratios are found around the inner-ring, landlocked suburbs.
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached DSF Percent of Close to Original Price by Price Range September 2021 All Prices 200-399K 400-599K 600-799K 800-999K 1-1.5M 104.2% 105.0% 99.2% 100.0% 97.1% 96.2% 95.0% 94.0% 90.0% 92.0% 85.0% 89.8% 80.0% 75.0% CLOSE TO ORIGINAL PRICE RATIO BY PRICE RANGE 70.0% 0-7 Days 8-14 Days 15-21 Days 22-28 Days 1-2 Months 2-3 Months 3 Months or More Pricing strategies remain paramount in this market. With only one chance at making a good first impression based on location, condition and price buyers are often unwilling to take a second look even after a price reduction. When homes are priced right the first time they sell faster and for more money.
INTEREST RATES AND AFFORDABILITY.
$- 0.00% $1,000.00 $1,500.00 $2,500.00 $3,000.00 $500.00 $2,000.00 Metric 1/1/2005 with 10% Down Payment for Principle and Interest Payments Only Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Interest Rate Based on Median Sold Price 5/1/2005 Current 9/1/2005 MOM 1/1/2006 YOY 5/1/2006 9/1/2006 $2,612 P&I 1/1/2007 5/1/2007 16.5% 1.5% Payment 9/1/2007 1/1/2008 0.0% 0.1% 2.90% 30 Year Fixed 5/1/2008 Interest Rate 9/1/2008 1/1/2009 P&I Payment 5/1/2009 9/1/2009 30 Year Fixed Interest Rate 1/1/2010 5/1/2010 4.00% 8.00% 9/1/2010 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021 INTEREST RATES AND AFFORDABILITY HISTORIC 3.00% 7.00% 2.00% 6.00% 1.00% 5.00% DSF
$200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 $1,600,000 $1,800,000 Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Total Amount Paid over 30 Year Term Based on 30 Year Fixed Interest Rate with a 10% Down Payment Metric 1/1/2005 Total Paid Over Lifetime of Loan 5/1/2005 Current 9/1/2005 MOM 1/1/2006 YOY 5/1/2006 9/1/2006 16.3% 1.3% $ 997,702 $ 575,000 2.90% Total Paid Over Median Sold 30 Year Fixed 1/1/2007 Lifetime of Loan Price Interest Rate 5/1/2007 13.9% -0.9% 9/1/2007 1/1/2008 0.01% 0.06% 5/1/2008 Median Sold Price 9/1/2008 1/1/20090.00%1.00%2.00%3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 30 Year Fixed Interest Rate 5/1/2009 8.00% 9/1/2009 1/1/2010 DSF 5/1/2010 9/1/2010 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021 INTEREST RATES AND AFFORDABILITY HISTORIC
15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Metric 1/1/2005 on 30 Year Fixed Interest Rate with a 10% Down Payment Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Total Amount Paid over 30 Year Term Based 5/1/2005 Current 9/1/2005 MOM 1/1/2006 YOY 5/1/2006 9/1/2006 16.5% 1.5% P&I Payment 1/1/2007 P&I Payment $2,612 5/1/2007 9/1/2007 3.5% 0.4% % of Income for 1/1/2008 Average P&I 5/1/2008 Payment 9/1/2008 1/1/2009 31.0% 5/1/2009 9/1/2009 1/1/2010 % of Income for Average P&I Payment 5/1/2010 9/1/2010$1,000.00$1,200.00$1,400.00$1,600.00$1,800.00$2,000.00$2,200.00$2,400.00$2,600.00$2,800.00 DSF 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 $3,000.00 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021 INTEREST RATES AND AFFORDABILITY HISTORIC
-20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 1/1/2005 % of Income for Average P&I Payment Dedicated to P&I Payments Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Appreciation vs. % of Household Income 5/1/2005 Metric 9/1/2005 1/1/2006 Current 5/1/2006 MOM 9/1/2006 YOY 1/1/2007 5/1/2007 3.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 31.0% % of Income for Median Sold 30 Year Fixed 9/1/2007 Median Sold Price YOY Change P&I Payment Appreciation Interest Rate 1/1/2008 -3.9% 13.9% 5/1/2008 9/1/2008 0.1% 2.90% 1/1/2009 5/1/2009 9/1/2009 30 Year Fixed Interest Rate 1/1/2010 5/1/2010 9/1/2010 1/1/2011 5/1/2011 9/1/2011 1/1/2012 5/1/2012 9/1/2012 1/1/2013 5/1/2013 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 5/1/2014 9/1/2014 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021 INTEREST RATES AND AFFORDABILITY HISTORIC DSF 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00%
Total Purchasing Power by Interest Rate for a Monthly Principal and $607,831 $587,318Interest Payment of $2,245 $568,181 $650,000 $549,920 $532,490 $600,000 $515,847 $500,000 $550,000 $484,808 $470,287 $500,000 $456,401 $443,119 $450,000 $430,410 $418,243 $400,000 $406,593 $395,432 $384,737 $374,484 INTEREST RATES AND AFFORDABILITY PURCHASING POWER $350,000 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25% 3.50% 3.75% 4.00% 4.25% 4.50% 4.75% 5.00% 5.25% 5.50% 5.75% 6.00%
MULTIPLE OFFER ANALYSIS.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Current Metric Under Asking Full Price Over Asking 1/1/2013 Greater Metro Denver Detached Residential Multiple Offer Analysis MOM 5/1/2013 YOY 9/1/2013 1/1/2014 24.5% 5/1/2014 4.3% 9/1/2014 -7.0% 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 18.9% 9/1/2015 3.3% 1/1/2016 -4.8% 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 56.6% 1/1/2017 Over Asking -7.6% 5/1/2017 11.8% 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 Full Price 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 Under Asking 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 DSF 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021 MULTIPLE OFFER ANALYSIS HISTORIC
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached DSF Multiple Offer Analysis by Price Range September 2021 Over Asking Full Price Under Asking 25.0% 25.0% MULTIPLE OFFER ANALYSIS BY PRICE RANGE 18.8% 45.3% 42.5% 34.8% 8.7% 52.3% 54.3% 54.7% 56.6% 61.8% 66.7% 100.0% 18.4% 20.5% 19.4% 19.7% 19.0% 75.0% 18.9% 18.7% 56.5% 56.3% 36.3% 37.0% 33.3% 28.4% 26.0% 26.3% 24.5% 19.6% 0-199K 200-399K 400-599K 600-799K 800-999K 1-1.5M 1.5-2.0M 2.0-3.0M 3.0-4.0M 4.0-5.0M 5.0M+ All Prices With 84.4% of all Detached Single Family homes selling for at or over their last asking price buyers looking for a ‘deal’ are likely to come up empty handed. This trend continues up to the $2,000,000 price range where the majority of homes are selling for either a full price offer or over asking price.
DSF ASF 6.8% 55.2% 73.1% MULTIPLE OFFERS BY ZIP CODE Areas in red are where the most aggressive contracts are being written and accepted. The inner and outer ring suburbs are seeing the most multiple offers.
Greater Metro Denver Single Family Detached DSF Multiple Offer Amount over Asking by Price Range September 2021 DSF Over Asking % DSF Over Asking $ 16.0% $500,000 14.0% 4.9% $465,000 $450,000 12.0% 4.6% $400,000 10.0% $350,000 4.8% $300,000 5.5% 8.0% 7.2% $250,000 7.0% 6.0% 11.2%$203,128 5.5% 4.0% 13.5%$200,000 2.0% 5.0%$154,621$150,000 0.0% MULTIPLE OFFER ANALYSIS BY PRICE RANGE$107,163 0-199K $77,102 $100,000 $43,351 $31,156 $50,000 $21,285 $29,865 $16,242 $0 200-399K 400-599K 600-799K 800-999K 1-1.5M 1.5-2.0M 2.0-3.0M 3.0-4.0M 4.0-5.0M 5.0M+ All Prices With multiple offers so prevalent in today’s market this analysis can help set appropriate expectations with buyers on what it takes to win the home in a competing situation.
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