November 24, 2015 SBE Newsletter

Vol 30, Edition 294 NOVEMBER 24, 2015 Diversity in Action Publish by SBE certified SBE/DBE/MBEWhy Economists’ Predictions AreUsually WrongThey almost always fail to foresee a recession before it happens. But there are ways they canimprove their insights. Tennert says forecasters should also track unemploy- ment claims in their state because they provide a better real-time indication of the jobs economy. A big help, she adds, is getting out in the field and talking with a region’s business leaders about what they are seeing in the economy. State forecasters usually build a small cushion into their revenue forecasts, but budget offices and policy- makers also need to develop other cushions -- rainy day funds, for example -- in case of a downturn. “It would be nice if you got to under-forecast by 10 percent so when you get to a downturn everyone’s OK,” Tennert says. “But when you have these really critical needs at play, you just can’t be in that situation.” Source: http://www.governing.com/By Liz Farmer at the jobs site Indeed and a professor at George SBE Outreach Services Washington University. “That’s where we’ve pretty When the Chinese stock market took a plunge much seen this epic failure, where nobody’s been With 1.5 million businesses in our database, SBE isin late August, it triggered a 1,000-point drop over able to consistently forecast.” California’s #1 source for diversity outreach.just a few hours in the U.S. stock market. It also Advertisementstriggered worries about whether the sell-off was The lag time in accurate data can be a big culprit. Placed in the Small Business Exchange newspaper,a sign of a slowing economy. The response from State forecasters tend to rely heavily on the jobs SBE Today newsletter, and online at www.sbeinc.commany economists was that the market was simply growth and employment data released monthly by Faxed and Eblast Solicitationsdue for a “correction” and that the figures that re- the U.S. Department of Labor, because job growth Targeted mailings sent to businesses per yourally matter to the economy -- job growth and un- is connected to increases in income and sales taxes criteria.employment -- should remained unscathed. -- two of the biggest revenue raisers for states. Telemarketing Telephone follow-up calls that follow a script of So far, that’s held true. But the fact is, economic However, the monthly figures are typically re- 5 questions you create.forecasting is an extremely inexact science. Most of vised two or even three months after they are first Computer Generated Reportsthe time, economists tend to predict fiscal growth published. So forecasters don’t really have an ac- Will fit right into your proposal, along with a list ofwell. But when it comes to crucial pivots in the curate picture of March’s economy, for example, interested firms to contact.economy -- the major downturns and upswings -- until it’s already June. “That makes it really muchthey’re dead wrong almost every time. harder to project those turning points, because Contact Info: you’re always looking in that rearview mirror,” says In the last recession, it took the Survey of Profes- Juliette Tennert, director of economic and public 795 Folsom Street, 1st Flr, Room 1124sional Forecasters nearly a year to start adjusting their policy research the University of Utah. Tennert was San Francisco, CA 94107jobs forecasts downward after the economy began to a forecaster for the state of Utah during the reces- Email: [email protected] in 2008. The discrepancy was so big, in fact, sion and, more recently, the state’s budget director. Website: www.sbeinc.comthat the group’s year-ahead employment forecastpredicted there would be 7 million more people em- This process has real consequences for govern- Phone: (415) 778-6250, (800) 800-8534ployed in mid-2009 than was actually the case. ments. The foundation of all budgets is the forecast Fax: (415) 778-6255 of how much the state will earn that year in revenues. Budget forecasting has never been easy, but When forecasters miss a downturn, lawmakers have Publisher ofthese days it’s getting even harder. Revenues have to cut spending mid-year to balance the budget. Small Business Exchangebecome increasingly volatile, and global com-merce is ever more intertwined -- as China’s mar- So how can economists better predict recessions? weekly newspaperket tumble laid bare. “For someone to be a good Sinclair thinks that more economists should focusrecession forecaster, they need to predict it more solely on predicting major turns in the economy.than once,” says Tara Sinclair, chief economist But there just isn’t much incentive for economists to work only on recessions, which tend to happen about once every six years.

2 sbe DAILY E-NEWSLETTER www.sbeinc.com November 24, 2015California Sub-Bid Request Ads RFP FOR GOODWILL SITE: Sub-Bids Requested From Qualified Mechanical, Electrical, Plumbing, Fire Protection & Precast/GFRC MBE / WBE Subcontractors & Suppliers RFP DUE DATE: Monday, December 7th, 2015 East Bay Municipal Utility District Related California (“Developer”) is seeking firms interested in providing Consulting Services for Drought Contingency Plan, Bay Area Regional Reliability Mechanical, Electrical, Plumbing, Fire Protection, and Precast/GFRC. Location: San Francisco Bay AreaThe Project is to demolish most of the two existing buildings on the project site and construct a mixed-usedevelopment with two components, a residential and retail development and an office development and Bid Date: 12/4/15 Seeking the following services: permit center to be occupied by several City and County of San Francisco departments. Water System Modeling, Environmental We encourage interested firms to review documents Analysis, Institutional Review & Analysis, Hydrologic Monitoring & Analysis, (including the Sign In Sheet from the recent Pre-Bid Workshop). Water System Vulnerability Analysis, CVP & Documents available at http://mission.sfgov.org/OCABidPublication/BidDetail.aspx?K=10255 Local Business Enterprises (LBEs) —including MBEs and WBEs—are encouraged to respond. SWP Operational Modeling Contact: Harold Hill at [email protected] RMC Water and Environment McGuire and Hester 2175 N. California Blvd., Ste. 315 Walnut Creek, CA 94596 9009 Railroad Avenue • Oakland, CA 94603 • Phone: (510) 632-7676 • Fax: (510) 562-5209 Contact: Sean Moss• An Equal Opportunity Employer Phone: 925-627-4100 • Fax: 925-627-4101 Contact: Tamara Simbirdi, Marketing Coordinator Sub Bids Requested From Qualified MBE/WBE/DBE Subcontractors & Suppliers for County of Sacramento - Watt Avenue Pedestrian Enhancements, Community Development Email: [email protected] Block Grant Project (B-15-UC-06-0005) We will assist interested firms in obtaining bonds, Project #4295 • Location: Sacramento, CA lines of credit and/or insurance if necessary. An Equal Opportunity Employer Bid Date: December 3, 2015 @ 2:00 PMMcGuire and Hester is seeking qualified subcontractors in the following trades: trucking; sawcut- Best Contracting Services, Inc. is requesting sub bidsting; striping; electrical; concrete; slurry seal; and handrailing. We will pay up to and including one and from all qualified LBE/MBW/WBEone-half percent (1-1/2%) of your bonding cost. Certification assistance is available, as well as viewingplans and specs. Suppliers, Subcontractors and Truckers for: Owner: City and County of San Francisco McGuire and Hester Port of San Francisco 9009 Railroad Avenue • Oakland, CA 94603 • Phone: (510) 632-7676 • Fax: (510) 562-5209 Project: Pier 31 Roof & Structural Repair Project Contact: Dave Koerber • An Equal Opportunity Employer Contract No.: 2762R Sub Bids Requested From Qualified DBE Subcontractors & Suppliers for Bid Due Date: 12/15/2015 at 10:30 am City of Dixon - West A Street Rehabilitation Project For the following (but not limited to) work: Project No. 2015-04 / Federal-Aid STPL-5056(019) Sheet Metal, Electrical, Trucking, Concrete, Carpentry, Location: Dixon, CA Painting, Abatement, Hazardous Material Demolition Bid Date: November 19, 2015 @ 3:00 PM If you are interested in bidding on this work or know someone who is, please contact: Tom Ryan/CandysMcGuire and Hester is seeking qualified subcontractors in the following trades: trucking; grinding; Simpkins at P: (310) 328-6969, F: (310) 328-9176sweeping; paving fabric; striping; and concrete flatwork. We will pay up to and including one and one-half Plans, Specs, and Requirements for the project arepercent (1-1/2%) of your bonding cost. Certification assistance is available, as well as viewing plans and available for review at our office in Union City or atspecs. Port of San Francisco, City and County of San Fran- cisco - Pier 1, The Embarcadero San Francisco, CA O.C. Jones & Sons, Inc. 94111 and are available at the Port’s website address: http://www.sfport.com/index.aspx?page=18 . 1520 Fourth Street • Berkeley, CA 94710 • Phone: 510-526-3424 • FAX: 510-526-0990 For assistance in obtaining bonds, line of credit, and/or Contact: Donat Galicz • An Equal Opportunity Employer insurance for this project please contact Thomas Ryan/ Candys Simpkins at the noted phone number. REQUEST FOR DBE SUBCONTRACTORS AND SUPPLIERS FOR: Hwy 101 San Jose – Morgan Hill Best Contracting Services, Inc. 4301 Bettencourt Way Union City, CA 94587 Resurface and Repair Flexible Pavement, PCC Slab Caltrans #04-1J6304 P: (310) 328-6969, F: (310) 328-9176 E: [email protected], BID DATE: December 1, 2015 @ 2:00 PM [email protected] WE AREWe are soliciting quotes for (including but not limited to): Trucking, Lead Compliance Plan, Construc-tion Area Signs, Portable Changeable Message Sign, SWPPP, Storm Water Annual Report, Sweeping, AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY CONTRACTORCold Plane AC, Asphalt Treated Permeable Base, Base Bond Breaker, AC Dike, Geosynthetic Pave-ment Interlayer, Shoulder Rumble Strip, AC Dike, Tack Coat, Drill and Bond (Dowel Bar), Spall Repair(Polyester Concrete), Individual Slab Replacement (RSC), Grinding, Object Marker, Midwest GuardrailSystem, Vegetation Control, Transition Railing, Concrete Barrier, Striping & Marking, Loop Detectorand Construction Materials 100% Performance & Payment Bonds may be required. Worker’s Compensa-tion Waiver of Subrogation required. Please call OCJ for assistance with bonding, insurance, necessaryequipment, material and/or supplies. OCJ is willing to breakout any portion of work to encourage DBEParticipation. Plans & Specs are available for viewing at our office or through the Caltrans Website atwww.dot.ca.gov/hq/esc/oe/weekly_ads/index.php.

November 24, 2015 www.sbeinc.com sbe DAILY E-NEWSLETTER 3California Sub-Bid Request AdsSmall 19 PAMARON WAY, NOVATO, CA 94949 AECOM • MSS • TELACU, A Joint Venture Business PHONE: (415) 382-1188 • FAX: (415) 883-7529 REQUEST FOR BIDS & NOTICE OF INTEREST Exchange Contact: Adrianne Lewis AECOM • MSS • TELACU, A Joint Venture, is bid- Email: [email protected] ding on the following project as a Prime Contractor: The Sub-Bid Request Specialist REQUESTS QUOTATIONS FROM ALL Document Control, Project Control ALL CERTIFIED DVBE AND SBE and Support ServicesIt’s takes a sharp pencil and SUBCONTRACTORS & SUPPLIERSqualified, competitive FOR ALL TRADES Mira Loma Women’s Detention Centersub-contractors, vendors, and FOR THE FOLLOWING PROJECT: (RFP No. AED7740000)suppliers to win the bid and achieve Bid Date: 12-3-15the diversity goals. DELTA SERVICE DISTRICT CENTERLook no further. We have them RELOCATION AECOM • MSS • TELACU, A Joint Venture, is seek-all in our database ing qualified Community Business Enterprises certified CALIFORNIA CONSERVATION CORPS by Los Angeles County with expertise in documentNeed construction PROJECT #107756 controls, project controls, and support services for thecontractors and STOCKTON, CA design-build delivery of the Mira Loma Women’s De-suppliers familiar with tention Center in Lancaster, CA. We would welcomepublic contracting, BID DATE: December 3rd, at 2:00PM information from qualified firms with expertise in thebondable, certified ESTIMATE: $19,500,000 following professional service areas:by cities, states andfederal entities, and Trades needed but not limited to: Underground Utili- 1) Document Controlwilling to work in one ties, Grading, Paving, Cast-in-place Concrete, Ma-or many locations? sonry, Manufactured Stone Veneer and Trim, Land- 2) SchedulingWe have that, too. scape and Irrigation, Guard Post, Chain link Fence and Gates, Decorative Metal Fences and Gates, Site 3) EstimatingWant to reach them by and Street Furnishings, Structural Steel, Metal Fab-industry-specific codes rications, Steel Decking, Cold Formed Metal Framed, 4) Cost Control(NAIC/SIC/UNSPSC)? Metal Stairs, Rough Carpentry, Exterior FinishWe can do that, too Carpentry, Casework, Glued Laminated Construc- 5) Management of user-occupancy planning and tion, Architectural Woodwork, Waterproofing, Metal intermittent move/transitionThe next time you’re Roof Panels, Thermal Insulation, PVC Roofing, Sheetbidding project where Metal Flashing Trim, Roof Specialties and Accesso- 6) Planning and development of post-occupancy time and accuracy are ries, Firestopping, Sealants, Metal Doors and Frames, maintenance scheduleof the essence, call us. Access Doors and Frames, Overhead Coiling Doors,We’ll make it happen. Folding Doors, Wood Windows, Unit Skylights, Finish 7) Management/documentation for Equipment Hardware, Glazing, Louver, Grilles and Sun-Control, Procurement, Planning, and/or InstallationWe are on the move Plaster, Gyp Board, Tile, Ceiling , resilient Floor-to make your ing, Tile carpeting, Access Flooring, Wall Covering, 8) Safetybusiness better. Acoustic Panels, Painting, Visual Display Surfaces, Display Cases, Signage, Traffic Signage, Toilet and 9) Community outreach and local worker Call 1-800-800-8534 Shower Compartments, Plastic Lockers, Flag Poles, hiring support Appliances, Toilet Compartments and accessories, Window Shades and Blinds, HVAC, Plumbing, Elec- This proposal is in alignment with the County of trical, Fire Sprinklers Los Angeles’ CBE Program and certified CBEs are encouraged to respond. The RFP may be provid- BONDING, INSURANCE, TECHNICAL ed to interested firms, if needed. In addition, the ASSISTANCE AVAILABLE. PLANS AVAILABLE IN AECOM • MSS • TELACU, A Joint Venture can pro- vide assistance to firms in obtaining bonds, lines of GC’S PLAN ROOM. SUCCESSFUL credit and insurance required by the contract docu- SUBCONTRACTORS WILL BE REQUIRED TO ments. SIGN ARNTZ BUILDERS, INC. STANDARD According to the RFP requirements, any firm se- SUBCONTRACT AGREEMENT WHICH lected shall be exclusively committed to the INCLUDES ARNTZ BUILDERS, INC. AECOM • MSS • TELACU, A Joint Venture team, and cannot be included in any other proposal for the REQUIREMENT THAT SUBCONTRACTORS PRO- Los Angeles County Mira Loma Women’s Detention VIDE A 100% FAITHFUL PERFORMANCE AND Center or Consolidated Correctional Treatment Facility. PAYMENT BOND OF THE SUBCONTRACT PRICE FROM A TREASURY LISTED SURETY COMPANY Interested firms should email (preferred) prelimi- ACCEPTABE TO ARNTZ BUILDERS. BOND PRE- nary qualifications (one page firm overview, key staff MIUM TO BE INCLUDED IN BID AS A SEPARATE information, a relevant project list) and SBE/CBE ITEM. SUBCONTRACTORS WILL BE REQUIRED certifications for review to [email protected] or fax to the Small Business Exchange at 415.778.6255, by TO PROVIDE A WAIVER OF 5:00 PM, Friday, November 20, 2015. SUBROGATION ENDORSEMENT TO HEIR AECOM WORKERS COMPENSATION INSURANCE. 515 S. Flower Street, 8th Floor, WE ARE SIGNATORY TO THE CARPENTER’S AND Los Angeles, CA 90071 LABORER’S Attn: Elaine Chan ([email protected]) COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENTS AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY EMPLOYER

4 sbe DAILY E-NEWSLETTER www.sbeinc.com November 24, 2015