Alpas, Pilipinas!: The Emergence of the Philippine Urban Air Mobility

Alpas, Pilipinas! The Emergence of the Philippine Urban Air Mobility Brixvon P. Cruz, AeE, CCT, CSASS A licensed Aeronautical Engineer and a Student Affairs practitioner by profession. He desires to design not just aircraft but safer skies and sustainable cities and communities. He believes with Henry Ford’s principle – “when everything seems to be going against you, remember that the airplane takes off against the wind, not with it.” PH Transportation and Freight 2030 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities 1 This cover art has been done by the author.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report also recognizes future trends that are likely to encourage the development and adoption of Have you watched The Jetsons animated sitcom and urban air mobility in the Philippines over the coming tried to imagine living in the era where you travel with decade. These includes the following: flying cars? Where you fly going to school or work right directly from your own houses? You will be • A study revealed that nearly half of all needing a good imagination to think of that. Flying in surveyed consumers were potentially an urban area is still considered as a science-fiction, comfortable with delivery and UAM uses. but what if it is now a science fact? Major concerns presented were safety, privacy, job security, environmental threats The industry for on-demand, piloted or highly and noise and visual pollution. Moreover, automated, passenger- or cargo-carrying air cybersecurity, affordability, and willingness to transport services in an urban area is called the pay were perceived as barriers to the UAM Urban Air Mobility, or UAM. This is an entirely new viability (Al Haddad et al., 2020). industry that is being heavily invested in and is quickly growing. For those who aren’t familiar with • Electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles the concept, UAM is using aircraft within urban areas are rapidly becoming a reality, due to the for public transportation (Krempa 2020). intersection of several breakthrough and maturing developments. However, the main “Alpas, Pilipinas!: The Emergence of the technological challenge standing in the way Philippine Urban Air Mobility” is a strategic of urban air mobility is the creation of vehicles foresight report that provides individuals, policy (managing noise pollution) and battery makers, and aviation industry leaders, the information (power supply) technology (Sanford 2019). about relevant and emerging trends and issues of the urban air mobility, allowing them to navigate the Scenarios for Urban Air Mobility Adoption in the possible futures and use it as a source of inspiration Philippines for the present and the post-COVID-19 era. The trends bring up key uncertainties: what can the Alpas is a Filipino term means “to escape” or “to be industry do to make urban air mobility accepted to safe from,” this word is also related to the act or the cities – the people? To what extent will urban air manner of flying (hence, aviation). In undertaking this mobility technology advance? This report explores creation of work, the hope of removing prejudices four scenarios for future adoption of urban air and guiding people towards the vision of safer skies mobility in the Philippines out to 2030. The scenarios and more liveable cities with the urban air mobility are designed to challenge current perspectives, were considered. define and explore key uncertainties, and provide a common set of shared narratives for industry, Strategic foresight is a well-established discipline government, and community stakeholders. which helps to inform strategic decision-making by exploring plausible futures. Two specific methods This strategic foresight report has been initiated to have been used in this report – horizon scanning and determine if the Philippines is ready to fully enter the developing scenarios (see Figure 1). These epoch of urban air mobility, and to explore how can techniques were used in combination to craft and the country become by the year 2030 with this new communicate a narrative about the future of urban air era of air transportation. mobility adoption in the Philippines, and to derive questions opening the reader’s mind hoping that everyone can engage for the transformation to a better future. Understand Conduct Identify Salient Analysis and Conclusion Horizon Patterns of Possibility of Core Issues, Change Scan (Developing Ideas Questions, & Scenarios) Scope of Project Figure 1. Report Framework 2 PH Transportation and Freight 2030 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities

Source: Gartner 2019 Figure 2. Gartner’s 2019 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies INTRODUCTION Urban Air Mobility Blade Runner 2049 (2017), The Fifth Element (1997), NASA defines UAM as a safe and efficient system for and Back to the Future (1985), these are few of the air passenger and cargo transportation within an science-fiction movies which depicts far-future urban area, inclusive of small package delivery and settings where robots, jet packs, hoverboards, other urban Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) holograms, and flying cars can be seen. Ever wonder services, that supports a mix of onboard/ground- what it feels like if this will be a real-life setting in the piloted and increasingly autonomous operations next five to ten years? Can you imagine seeing flying (Gipson 2020). cars and drones normally hovering around the neighborhood? These aircraft could be delivering Urban air mobility is the vision to revolutionize food and packages to doorsteps, or hovering through mobility within metropolitan areas, creating airborne highways to carry passengers for short- or accessible air transport systems for passenger and long-distance travels. cargo (Patterson, Antcliff, & Kohlman, 2018). According to “Gartner’s 2019 Hype Cycle for Urban air mobility is being researched and developed Emerging Technologies” study, one of the innovation by industry, academia, and government. Significant triggering technologies is “Flying Autonomous resources have been invested toward cultivating an Vehicles” for the next couple of decades (see Figure ecosystem for urban air mobility that includes 2). manufacturers of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, builders of takeoff and landing Thanks to the emerging technologies and new areas, and researchers of the airspace integration business models enabled by the digital revolution, we concepts, technologies, and procedures needed to are now able to explore what’s essential to create a conduct urban air mobility operations safely and new method for safely moving people and cargo in efficiently alongside other airspace users the most challenging environment – a dense city. A (Thipphavong et al., 2018). new era in air travel called Urban Air Mobility, is being launched by the leading institutions for aeronautics and aerospace research. 3 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities Chapter: Tourism and Transportation

Flying Back to the History Furthermore, urbanization has led to be a threat of exposure to airborne and viral diseases, and an The first attempts to foster urban air transportation increase in traffic congestions resulting in challenges markets began in the 1950’s and peaked during the for the economy and society. 1960’s and 70’s following the availability of turbine- powered commercial helicopters. Following in the In the last 10 years, mobility has taken a large leap path of the early aviators from 40 years earlier, the forward - with Grab and Uber renovating ride-hailing first helicopter air carriers began as air mail services by car, Tesla and Google bringing driverless cars to in 1947 supported by subsidies from the U.S. the roads and aviation giants like Airbus working on Government. These companies carried their first making flying cars a reality in the next decade. commercial passengers in 1953. By 1963, four However, despite these advancements, more can be scheduled helicopter carriers were in operation in done to make urban mobility a more integrated and Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, and Chicago efficient experience especially in traffic congested earning over 80% of their revenues from passenger cities. ticket sales. These companies primarily provided services between major airports, or between an The result is a vision to build an ecosystem made of airport and the downtown Central Business District helicopter operators, heliport developers and (CBD). In some cases, these companies also hospitality providers - all enabled by technology. A provided charter services and private business new paradigm that starts with helicopters and scales bookings to diversify their income (Vascik & into the future of urban air mobility. Hansman 2017). Today, this vision is a reality that’s beginning in In the previous century, the commercialization of air Manila, one of the major cities in Asia. Manila is one travel has significantly enhanced global connectivity, of the fastest growing business hubs in Southeast opened up economies and provided a completely Asia and has actively embraced the shift to a digital new meaning to leisure travel. Yet even with this shift, society. Despite being the third most congested city innovation of this nature in urban air mobility has not in Southeast Asia, it has a dense network of aviation kept pace with new technology, social and economic infrastructure throughout the city. In short, Manila is models - air taxis are still seen as a thing of the distant ready for the future; not just in the digital age but also future and a mode of transport only reserved for the in urban air mobility (Sinai 2019). wealthy. PH Tourism and Transportation 2030 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities 4

What is the Philippines’ Status in Urban Air Also, in the health care industry, the Philippine Red Mobility Era? Cross has partnered with Zipline, the world’s first and only national-scale drone delivery service, in making The Asia-Pacific region is fast emerging as a key on-demand and emergency blood deliveries by source of momentum for this exciting new sector. drone across the Philippines. These drone deliveries UAM market in Asia-Pacific is estimated to grow at a will be done from a safe height above the ground, by CAGR of 12.6% during the forecast period (2019- releasing a box of medicine by parachute to a 2025) by the Orion Market Research Pvt Ltd (Mukati designated spot at the health centers it serves (Lara 2020). Several cities in the region are expected to be 2019). early adopters of urban air mobility and a number of leading companies in this part of the world are among What kind of aircraft can even be used for this providing significant financial backing for eVTOL kind of transportation? programs (Alcock 2020). Urban air mobility will utilize aircraft similar to a Asia is at the forefront of urban air mobility, with cities Helicopter air taxi but the majority of designs are like Jakarta and Manila, presenting an opportunity for electric and uses multiple rotors to minimize noise testing and growth. Original Equipment (due to rotational speed) while providing high system Manufacturers (OEM) predict technologies, such as redundancy. Also, urban air mobility aircraft has eVTOL, will come to the market in the mid-2020s Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL) capabilities, (Asian Sky Media 2019). which are deployed to take off and land vertically in a relatively small area to avoid the need of a runway The Philippines is the first country in Asia to fully unlike of a typical fixed wing aircraft. embrace urban air mobility through a partnership between INAEC and Ascent, Asia’s first technology- This new era has the potential to provide improved powered urban air mobility platform that enables search and rescue, ease to short-distance travels, passengers to purchase on-demand helicopter ride- faster package delivery, more accurate infrastructure shared flights seamlessly (Kopter Group 2020). inspection, better intra-city mobility, and lot more opportunities to make cities more liveable for communities worldwide. Source: www.rodmagaru.com (Ascent) 5 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities Chapter: Tourism and Transportation

ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING and In order to ensure this study captured as many FUTURE TRENDS opinions from the general public as possible, respondents had a chance to rank the top concerns Urban air mobility has the potential to make cities for UAM implementation in their communities in more liveable for communities worldwide. In the addition to a variety of other questions. Those top Philippines, few companies are already known to concerns based on the ranking of respondents offer urban air transportation such as AirTaxi.ph and include: safety (55 percent), type of sound generated Ascent. To detect opportunities, threats, trends, from the aircraft (49 percent), and volume of sound important lessons, and weaknesses which can impact from the aircraft (48 percent). the current future strategies of the aviation industry in the Philippines, here are some collected data about This initial study of public perception reveals several the urban air mobility: insights that can help propel the industry forward in urban planning, policymaking, and engineering SOCIAL (Yedavalli & Mooberry, 2019). Urban Air Mobility: Is It Accepted by the Public? General Public Concerns (NASA 2018) Are people ready to see their sky filled with aircraft, 1. Safety – Consumers distrust autonomous drones and other aerial vehicles? The answer is technology and are not aware of safety increasingly yes, according to a recent preliminary systems in place. study of the Airbus UTM, a division of Airbus’ Urban Air Mobility Unit, on public acceptance for Urban Air 2. Privacy – Civil liberties groups have privacy Mobility (see Figure 3). concerns with widespread UAM adoption but may misunderstand how camera equipment The study surveyed 1,500 members of the public is used in sensing system technology. around the world to determine their perceptions of safety, noise, inequity, visual pollution, and privacy 3. Jobs – There is concern that autonomous when it comes to the deployment of UAM. The technology will render jobs obsolete across research found that 44 percent are in support of, or multiple industries. in strong support of the initiative, with 41 percent believing these aircrafts to be safe to very safe which 4. Environment – Waste buildup from batteries, only serves to further back the growing excitement impact on wildlife, and energy usage around the deployment of UAM. concern. 5. Noise and Visual Disruption – Auditory and visual disturbances in residential neighborhoods are likely to create strong, localized pushback as the market expands. Source: Airbus S.A.S. 2020 Figure 3. An Assessment of Public Perception of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) 6 PH Tourism and Transportation 2030 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities

The Social Barrier UAM has the tough challenge of being seen as a safe and viable option to consumers. The concept of flying cars is common regarded as science fiction even though it is quickly becoming “science fact.” In general, people have a bias against flying that isn’t supported by the facts. Flying is much safer than driving, by the statistics, but many people would choose a car over a plane, all else being equal. Before UAM becomes mainstream, it needs to overcome this irrational fear of flight (Sanford 2019). TECHNOLOGY Urban Air Mobility: A Promising Technology for the Developing World Electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles are rapidly becoming a reality, due to the intersection of several breakthrough and maturing developments: Improved Energy Use and Storage: Powerful Source: www.newatlas.com batteries making use of lithium ion technologies – which have recently made Nobel Prize-winning headlines–along with hydrogen fuel cells and hybrid charging, now can provide hours of electricity to power vehicles. Motors Using A “System of Systems”: Advances The Technological Barrier have been made with motors that work with each other to transform battery power into high torque, rotor-induced lift, more effectively and efficiently than ever before. These lightweight, multi-rotor designs provide an unprecedented degree of safety and performance. Emerging, Super-Light and Safe Vehicle The main technological challenge standing in the way Composites: Composites not available even a of urban air mobility is the creation of vehicles and decade ago offer greater design freedom, enabling battery technology. The first of these challenges is the creation of complex aerodynamic shapes, and the fact that UAM vehicles need to be able to perform requiring less maintenance, while operating at a vertical takeoffs and landings. The most common safety level characteristic of the highest aviation form of air transportation, airplanes, need the ability standards. to drive at high speeds along a runway before taking off, which isn’t very practical in an urban Next-Gen Avionics: Electric vehicles will make use environment. of precision navigation capabilities, with GPS augmentation through kinematic accuracy Helicopters, on the other hand, can perform vertical improvements, embedded inertial sensors and takeoffs and landings. In fact, an early UAM program independent ground beacons. used helicopters by the Philippine Air Force in the 1940s to 1950s. However, helicopters have another Advanced Pilot Assistance and Flight Automation: problem: noise. Most gasoline-powered vehicles are Certified sense- and-avoid technologies, too noisy for UAM, meaning that electric vehicles are predetermined “tunnels in space” and pilot the logical solution. However, UAM vehicle needs a assistance modes will provide safer flight operations significant storage capacity while remaining compact (Nichols & Dyment, 2019). and lightweight (Sanford 2019). 7 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities Chapter: Tourism and Transportation

ECONOMIC A new class of vehicles to complement the aircraft in the flight department will be capable of solving the Urban Air Mobility: The Profound Impact on the “last mile” or the “door-to-door” part of a business Future of Business Aviation trip. This new class of flying is only possible because of these unique traits: For business aviation, eVTOL will deliver increased “enterprise value,” an economic measure reflecting A Smaller Infrastructure Footprint: Most vehicles the market value of an entire company, and the sum of this class are of a size that will fit onto a cul-de-sac of claims from all security interests: debt holders, or a two-lane driveway. preferred shareholders, minority shareholders, common equity holders, and others. In short, Access to Existing Heliports: Over 25,000 heliports enterprise value is one of the fundamental metrics exist around the world today. Some 4,200 have been used in business valuation, financial modeling, documented and geocoded for the 74 cities included accounting, and portfolio analysis. in the recent study: UAM Global Markets – 2020 to 2040. Benefits accruing from use of eVTOL vehicles are similar to those generated by business aircraft, and A Lower Noise Signature: Recent noise-signature contribute directly to shareholder value creation at testing shows that two-passenger electric vehicles multiple levels: generate less than 65 decibels (dB) hovering at about 250 feet of altitude, or 35 dB at 1,500 feet, • Shareholder level (e.g., market share growth, significantly quieter than existing commercial profit growth, asset efficiency). rotorcraft. • Enterprise level (e.g., dimensions of An Ideal Range of Operations: Electric flight will improved quality, cost and time). span a wide range of missions, from those encompassing anywhere from 10 miles to perhaps as • Transport of key employees, including many as 200 miles, all while avoiding traffic efficient travel, but also team thinking congestion and residential areas. regarding business execution, etc. A Green Footprint: These all-electric or • Reflection of the vehicles’ use as part of the hydrogen/electric vehicles have zero emissions, and overall company’s brand, and sharp focus on can become important tools for the increasing sustainability. number of companies whose mission statements prioritize sustainability (Nichols & Dyment, 2019). According to the experts at NEXA Advisors, and confirmed through prior analysis going back over two The Environmental Barrier decades, business aviation can (Nichols & Dyment, 2019): Once you have a vehicle capable of performing vertical takeoffs and landings, you need a location ✓ Increase revenues by improving customer where these vehicles can actually takeoff and land. relationships and accelerating transactions. While these helipads or veriports don’t need to be big, they need to be accessible to the vehicles using ✓ Increase earnings growth by providing them. This means that veriports need to either be benefits far greater than costs. elevated or easily accessible while flying through urban canyons. This is challenging due to the ✓ Improve asset efficiency by allowing unpredictable wind patterns created in these companies to leverage intangible assets, environments. While elevated vertiports with space especially top talent. for wind to flow under them mitigate these issues to some extent, this comes at the cost of aesthetics, ✓ Increase customer satisfaction by allowing which may be a difficult sell (Sanford 2019). more face-to-face contact and moving customers with ease and purpose. POLITICAL ✓ Increase employee satisfaction by improving Urban Air Mobility: Legal and Regulatory Barriers work environments. Air taxi, ambulance, and airport shuttle UAM markets ENVIRONMENTAL share common regulatory barriers. Urban Air Mobility: The Producer of the Safest, Greenest, and Most Efficient Air Vehicles UAM and Regional Air Mobility (RAM) open up new possibilities for company flight departments and charter operators that cater to business travelers. PH Tourism and Transportation 2030 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities 8

Remotely piloted and autonomous UAM markets This analysis draws comparison of legal and require the following aviation regulations (either regulatory challenges for enabling UAM with modification of existing regulations, or new Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) (Booz, Allen, & regulations), as the current regulatory structure does Hamilton, 2018). not fully allow for these activities to be performed (Booz, Allen, & Hamilton, 2018): • Legal Environment: Dynamic legal environment • Regulations for beyond visual line of sight with many unresolved challenges, especially establishing where federal, state, and local (currently only with lengthy waiver process); authorities take lead. • Regulations for operations over people, streets, • Breadth of Challenges: UAM pose legal etc. (currently only with lengthy waiver process); challenges that touch on most aspects of • Regulations for when air cargo is being carried aviation, especially in the areas of air traffic control and management and flight standards, commercially and across state lines; but also environmental policy, public use, land • Regulations for when a passenger or patient is use, and local restrictions. being transported in a UAM (remotely or • Legal Barriers for Remotely Operated and autonomously piloted) either within visual line of Automated Piloting System: Current legal sight or beyond; framework does not address issues related to • Regulations for flight in instrument conditions; operations over people, beyond visual line of • Regulations for airworthiness certification of sight, commercial operations carrying cargo or remotely piloted and autonomous aircraft; and people, and airworthiness certifications. • Training and knowledge requirements for pilots Assured autonomy remains a challenging and operators. technical and legal problem. Certification Gaps • Diversity in Approaches: States and locales are undertaking legal experiments through a mix of There are some gaps in the existing certification approaches, ranging from designating UAS framework where UAM will experience challenges, launch sites to hyperlocal restrictions. State and particularly along system redundancy and failure local laws range from laws prohibiting drones to management (Booz, Allen, & Hamilton, 2018): laws protecting UAS operations. • The standards and methods required to meet • Certification: Many efforts are underway at FAA, system redundancy and failure management ASTM, RTCA, SAE, and elsewhere to provide requirements for complex software could be methods of aircraft certification for UAM, but onerous to meet (e.g., DO-178C testing there is still no clear certification path and requirements for the large number of states several gaps in means of compliance. automation software can take); Opportunities may exist to: • A multi-copter will need a standard for how o Develop a roadmap to airworthiness that subsystems, such as distributed electric considers the range of potential UAM propulsion and energy storage, will address aircraft and paths to certification; redundancy and failures (e.g., helicopters may o Study and leverage international efforts have redundant engines and can autorotate to (e.g., NATO, EASA); handle certain failures); o Study and leverage efforts from similar • Determining the standard for a failure scenario domains, such as autonomous cars (e.g., for an autonomous vehicle (e.g., will a pilot or SAE Validation and Verification Task remote operator need to be available to take over, and what are the medical requirements for Force); and any “pilot/operator”); and o Explore other certification challenges for • Defining how an autonomous vehicle makes judgements in a failure scenario, based on the operator and operations certification. literal standard, such as when to “land immediately,” vs. “when practical,” vs. “closest • Strategies moving forward: Enabling strategies available airport” in the context of the operating can be employed to accelerate the development environment. of a UAM legal framework: o NASA – FAA cooperation, such as the Key Findings Research Transition Teams; o FAA Aviation Rulemaking Committee; Enabling UAM highlights critical legal, regulatory, and o FAA UAS Integration Pilot Program; and certification challenges that must be addressed in o Leveraging strategies from automobile order to bring urban air transportation to the market. automation, such as voluntary standards may help UAM deployment. 9 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities Chapter: Tourism and Transportation

SIGNALS transport system. Enhancing urban concentration would require multimodal public transport planning. According to the Institute for the Future, a signal is Effective use of and connectivity between different typically a small or local innovation or disruption that transport modes such as rail, road, expressway, has the potential to grow in scale and geographic water, air as well as car, bus, jeepney, and others to distribution (IFTF 2020). A signal can be a new satisfy diversified transport demands and provide practice, new technology, or a local trend. This choices for users is important. segment will discuss signals which can be useful to anticipate a highly uncertain future of the emerging Convenient Ways to Travel in the Philippines URBAN AIR MOBILITY, the main signal of this report. Rapidly developing urban cities like Manila and Clark The Philippines, Early “Urbanizers” in Asia are continually plagued with worsening land traffic conditions. But due to the convergence of the On the Philippines Urbanization Review of the World technological advancements and innovations, the Bank Group, it is stated that the Philippines is one of future of passenger commuting is beginning to be the early “urbanizers” in the East Asia and Pacific bright. According to Ascent, one of the pioneer Region where it took off in the 1960s, making the companies of urban air mobility services in the country an early and rapid-growing urban participant Philippines, there are five modern transportation in the region. However, urbanization began to slow in solutions people should try to avoid the stress of the 1990s. Since then urban growth has remained bumper-to-bumper madness or at least to make the positive, but slower than in the previous three madness more bearable, they are: decades and the share of the country’s population living in urban areas has overall been declining while Water Ferry the rural population has grown. Despite the 20 years of slower growth, urbanization rates in the past five Transport Network years have seen strong increases and the country’s Vehicle Service urban population is now forecast to reach 102 million (TNVS) (approximately 65% of the total population) by 2050 (World Bank Group 2017). Point -to- Urbanization Presents Much Opportunity for the Point Philippines Buses In the Philippines, urbanization is correlated with Seaplane economic efficiency and growth as has been found in other countries. Global evidence suggests that Helicopter efficiency of urbanization is largely influenced by the level of connectivity and respective transport (T’ng 2019) infrastructure. Empirical analysis for the Philippines provides some preliminary evidence that supports this relationship. For inter-city connectivity, higher levels of overall road infrastructure are correlated with increased economic efficiency, although that correlation is absent when only the highway is considered (World Bank Group 2017). Encourage Better Public Transport Within the Metro Within cities, investments should be focused on increasing the capacity of existing road networks and promoting better public transport. Broadly speaking, cities should look toward mass transit to increase productivity, such as higher capacity bus systems (e.g. Cebu City’s Bus Rapid Transit system) or in the case of Metro Manila transit rail. There is an urgent need to expand and modernize the country’s mass PH Tourism and Transportation 2030 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities 10

Expanding Urban Transportation from Ground to Source: www.aerospace.honeywell.com Airspace (The Emergence of Change) SIGNALS OF CHANGE Many countries around the world including the Philippines have their capital cities and other urban Air Taxis and Personal Transport places being so much populated. Today, congestion in cities are being experienced, and it is becoming a Rising urban air mobility, Ascent Flights Global, global problem. Therefore, sustainable mobility another organization concentrated on conveying solutions are highly needed. Expanding the ground helicopter taxi administrations to urban areas around transport network into the airspace in a way that it is the globe, has propelled in the Philippines. accessible and affordable will enhance daily living and will greatly improve one country’s economy. Ascent Urban Air Mobility has made an intense move by assigning the Philippines as its underlying launch As mentioned previously, the drivers of this change site. Despite of having a complex airspace network, are the level of discomfort due to worsening land Manila has some of the worst auto traffic of any city traffic, urban growth, and the advancement in in the world, with locals spending as much as 16 days technology. Day by day, the world demands mobility per year in traffic. Moreover, Ascent’s founder name solutions for both on the ground and in the air. With Manila as one of the quickest developing business rapid advances in electrification, autonomy, and center points in Southeast Asia, citing that their initial connectivity, large-scale urban mobility through a clients have included time-sensitive business people, new class of vehicles is becoming a real option. leisure travelers, and tourists (Transport Up 2019). As for the present, more exploration on concepts to Importing Urban Air Mobility Technology deliver the best possible urban air mobility experience that is equally affordable, eco-efficient, Manila Bulletin reports that the nation’s largest and safe is needed. People in the UAM industry charter operator, AirTaxi.ph, received its first single- should work collaboratively with cities and regulators engine H130 helicopter. Currently operating two to integrate the air taxis into existing environments H145 helicopters, the new H130 will be dedicated for and airspace rules with minimal impact, while at the commercial operations, including passenger same time developing more intelligent, autonomous, transport and sightseeing services in the Southern and decentralized air traffic management solutions islands of the Philippines, including Boracay, Cebu that can safely and efficiently accommodate all types and Palawan (Manila Bulletin 2018). of vehicles in the same airspace. 11 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities Chapter: Tourism and Transportation

Drones as Medical Supplies Delivery Service Source: www.time.com The U2 frontman, Bono, conveyed the news in a Source: www.esquiremag.ph ceremonial signing held at the Philippine Red Cross national headquarters, that the Philippines would turn THE FUTURE BEYOND COMMUTES AND CARGO into the base for the largest drone delivery activity for It is likely that in 10 to 15 years, air taxis will be a usual blood and medical supplies in the Asia-Pacific area medium of urban transportation and the fares will be through Zipline, beginning with a circulation affordable (as air service model drives costs down). community in the Visayas region, trailed by two more As its uses expand, new jobs and services will in eastern Visayas and Mindanao. develop around the UAM market (Wright 2018). In addition to shuttling passengers or delivering The service is expected to launch in the late spring of packages, the UAM community envisions a variety of 2020, and will eventually run 24/7. It’s expected to uses for the technology. This new era has the make hundreds of deliveries per day, reaching potential to provide improved emergency air millions of patients per year. In addition to blood, ambulances getting accident victims to hospitals delivery will eventually expand to include over 150 faster, quicker package delivery, first responders critical medical products (Garceau 2019). rescuing people stranded by floods. Tour guides enabling visitors to travel around from a whole new Zipline says that their drones can fly autonomously vantage point. and can carry up to 1.8 kg of load while flying up to 145 kph, with a roundtrip range of 160 km “in high winds and rain” (Paris 2019). Drone Launches during Pandemic The manilatimes.net report that to reinforce its efforts in battling the COVID-19 pandemic, the municipality of Liloan in the Philippines with a population of 118,753, is sending drones, equipped with 360- degree cameras to monitor its barangays and streets for compliance with enhanced community quarantine guidelines. With the project LUPAD or Liloan UAV Patrol Augmentation Division, the drones will fill three purposes: deterrence, monitoring, and response. Using drone innovation, watching the streets and distant areas of Liloan can be done remotely. Response time to dispersing illegal gatherings will be faster and the monitoring of social distancing more effective, since video monitoring by law enforcement is in real time (The Manila Times 2020). An article from the esquiremag.ph reports that the Pasig City government procured three units of the DJI MG-1P, an octocopter drone with a 10-liter payload. Each set costs P1 million in retail. These drones were originally designed to spray pesticides in farms, but found new use in fighting COVID-19 – drones were used as aerial spray and disinfection robots (Limos 2020). PH Tourism and Transportation 2030 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities 12

FUTURE SCENARIOS Using the environmental scanning and the future trends from the previous segments of this report, four different future scenarios were developed for the Philippine Urban Air Mobility in 2030. These four scenarios were named after the “Four Forces of Flight” that help an aircraft fly, namely, lift, drag, thrust, and weight as analogy to the characteristics of these scenarios. SCENARIO 1: Low Public Acceptance – Low Helicopters being used now are still certified under Technological Advancement the previous civil aviation laws. The regulation of the uncontrolled spaces and unmanned air traffic “OVER-WEIGHT” management are still for further study and haven’t finalized yet despite the increasing number of No discussion of 2020 can be had without addressing registered and unregistered Unmanned Aerial the impact of COVID-19. The virus has caused Vehicles such as those drones used for deliveries industries across the board to face slowdowns. Most and for personal use. notably regarding the UAM market, Voom, a UAM Urban air mobility of 2030 still faces unsettled holding of Airbus, shut down at the end of March on technical hurdles when applied at scale. Philippine that same year, citing COVID-19 as a primary factor aviation players remain insufficient to run effective for the closure (Montes 2020). UAM systems at an interorganizational scale. Moreover, UAM solutions are subject to numerous Years have passed and the UAM in the Philippines cybersecurity and public safety issues. weren’t able to cope with the growth of its Hence, people still have the anxiety of fully adopting neighboring countries. The regulation has not kept the means of traveling with an aircraft in a congested pace with changes in the UAM ecosystem, nor with urban area. This opens an opportunity to the the intricacy of an international lawmaking competing technologies such as driverless cars, environment. Vehicle safety standards are not yet driverless car rideshares, robo-taxis and other established, this includes sensing system capabilities technologies that are likely to provide the same requirement, human-machine interactions, and service. vehicle autonomy and conflict resolution challenges. Source: www.ph.asiatatler.com As a result, investors are not willing to open opportunities of UAM in the Philippines, fearing that their businesses will not be safe and secured. Nevertheless, the old players from the General Aviation continue operating for chartered flights and air freight services. Some of the wealthy people are the only ones who are willing to pay for a short- range air service. 13 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities Chapter: Tourism and Transportation

Source: www.stuff.co.za SCENARIO 2: Low Public Acceptance – High Large aviation companies have been prime movers Technological Advancement in urban air mobility innovation and have helped to drive high levels of technological advancement. “NO THRUST” However, many people are left asking “will autonomous technology render jobs obsolete across High levels of business venture in urban air mobility multiple industries?” With this, UAM players leverage technology, as well as concentrated efforts to upskill partnerships to coordinate messaging campaign the workforce in UAM of aviation industry, have given between UAM stakeholders. They also hold forums the Philippines a competitive advantage in the global and co-create solutions to address public concerns. urban air mobility industry. But domestic adoption lags, however, as public acceptance is still into the The dominance of large corporations in the Philippine land transportation. People and businesses remain Urban Air Mobility industry has provided job creation unwilling to fully trust urban air services. to both the aviation and tourism industry due to the convenience in travelling with air transport services. Among the general population, there is widespread However, auditory and visual disturbances in distrust on autonomous technology and ignorance residential neighborhoods created strong localized around what the urban air mobility is and how it works pushback. on its safety system. To help this public acceptance concern, pilot programs that provides demonstrated safety cases were offered. Large-scale demonstrations were also provided as an avenue for both the government and industry to test use case visions and new technologies. PH Tourism and Transportation 2030 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities 14

SCENARIO 3: Low Technological Advancement – SCENARIO 4: High Technological Advancement – High Public Acceptance High Public Acceptance “TECH DRAG” “THE LIFT-OFF” “Rapidly developing urban cities like Manila and The vision of revolutionizing mobility within Clark are continually plagued with worsening land metropolitan areas and creating accessible air traffic conditions. Whether you’re commuting by car transport systems for passengers and cargo has or public transport, chances are, you’ve been stuck already been achieved. Infrastructure solutions were in traffic for longer than you would like. seamlessly integrated new mobility systems into the existing urban transport network. The collaborative Traveling by land is undeniably inconvenient for efforts of the UAM industry and the government are those who have important places to go to, business already serving the greater needs of the broader deals to close, or critical meetings to catch. It’s a population. good thing that now, commuting around the Metro isn’t only possible through land or water, but through People have jump aboard the urban air mobility the air, too. While there aren’t any flying cars bandwagon as transportation disruption entered the commercially available for use, choppers are the next market. The Philippines has leveraged its competitive best thing to avoid all the ground traffic and get to strengths in urban air mobility, including its your destination within minutes. government support for urban air mobility innovations and strong industry and research Riding a helicopter is so advantageous. It saves you leadership, to become a world leader in urban air time as you skirt through road congestion, and it’s a mobility innovation, adoption, talent, and technology relatively inexpensive way to travel compared to exports. The pool of aviation skills in the Philippines luxury travel options like limousines” (T’ng 2019). has grown, enabling the implementation of scaled solutions at minimal cost. This could be a common introduction of companies who offer on-demand air services, and so, there is a The technological performance in the Philippine high degree of public acceptance with the urban air Urban Air Mobility has fulfilled expectations and mobility. Aside from the land traffic conditions, demonstrated scalability, cyber security and COVID-19 had a great impact to every Filipino’s lives, performance enough for both domestic and the prospect of individualized personal flight international operations. Well-developed public becomes more of a reality. This is despite technical education campaigns on urban air mobility have also problems around scalability, privacy, and helped to grow public acceptance. Simple and user- cybersecurity, which still hinder UAM system. friendly mobile apps as booking platform that connect travelers and commuters to air taxi companies have There has been limited technological advancement in emerged and the general population has finally learnt the areas of automated UAS, sensing systems, all its safety and security features and benefits. energy and vertiport infrastructure, and privacy- preserving capabilities. UAM-related skills have Air taxi providers, cargo drone companies, aviation become more common within the Filipino workforce, industry, and the government work tirelessly to scale but the supply of talent is insufficient to support a UAM with manufacturers, real estate developers, growing and evolving UAM industry. While the hospitality providers, and urban planners to deliver a Philippine UAM industry gradually works to hassle-free and more cost-efficient mobility overcome technical issues, some domestic experience. companies choose to import UAM technology from abroad. Philippine UAM technology have successfully achieved minimized everyday disturbance from noise UAM is still a highly hyped technology. The high level pollution and visual disruption, carbon neutral flights, of public acceptance to UAM, as well as the search environmentally sustainable eVTOLS, certified and for the next wave of productivity growth, have well-designed vertipads/vertiports, improved energy become the major drivers of UAM adoption across use and storage, and cyber secured environment. Philippine aviation industry. But the lack of scaled Flying cars are no longer a science-fiction, rather, a public UAM and the continuing need to import science-fact. technology from other countries has limited the economic and social value that could be provided by The Philippine Urban Air Mobility has become so fully this industry. integrated into the society that it no longer appears in the news headlines; instead, it is simply a part of everyday life. 15 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities Chapter: Tourism and Transportation

Source: www.techcrunch.com ANALYSIS AND POSSIBILITY OF IDEAS These two axes form the four scenarios which describe a different path to the Philippine Urban Air To interpret the complexity and diversity of plausible Mobility advancement and adoption (see Figure 4). urban air mobility futures, this report identified two axes of critical impact and uncertainty for the future Instead of predicting the future, these scenarios are of urban air mobility adoption. The intersection of mapped out to challenge current perspectives, these axes gave rise to four different scenarios. define, and explore key uncertainties, and provide a These scenarios help illuminate how in combination common set of shared narratives that can be used by the two areas of uncertainty could shape the future of industry, government, and community stakeholders. urban air mobility in the Philippines. These axes were identified as: Public Acceptance Technological Advancement Will the public shift from existing solutions (ground vehicles) to the expansion of Will it be feasible to scale Urban Air Mobility technologies and resolve the vehicle design, transportation network into the airspace? power supply, and infrastructure issues? Or will the communities, industries, and government continue to support the established Or will Urban Air Mobility remain limited by these barriers? land transportation? PH Tourism and Transportation 2030 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities 16

Figure 4. Plausible Future Scenarios of the Urban Air Mobility in the Philippines out to 2030 17 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities Chapter: Tourism and Transportation

Source: www.embraerx.embraer.com CONCLUSION By exploring the intersection of these uncertainties, this report produced four plausible scenarios for By 2030, 60% of the world's population will be urban. urban air mobility adoption in the Philippines out to This significant population growth is expected to 2030. Rather than predicting the future, these create a real need for innovative mobility options as scenarios are designed to challenge current ground infrastructure becomes increasingly perspectives, define, and explore key uncertainties, congested. The belief of providing people with a safe, and provide a common set of shared narratives that sustainable and convenient solution that leverages can be used by industry, government, and the airspace above cities is a solution (Airbus S.A.S., community stakeholders. 2020). Urban air mobility can contribute positively to a “Alpas, Pilipinas: The Emergence of the Philippine multimodal mobility system and help build more Urban Air Mobility” strategic foresight report liveable cities. It leverages the sky to better link provided and managed information about relevant people to cities and regions, giving them more and emerging trends and issues of the urban air possibilities to connect while supporting a balanced mobility allowing the future readers to navigate the development of regions. As urban transport heads plausible futures and explore how can the Philippines into the sky, sustainable city development becomes become by the year 2030. possible and loved ones are no longer quite so far away (Airbus S.A.S., 2020). But what will the future of urban air mobility adoption in the Philippines look like after 10 years? The answer to this question centers on the development of several key uncertainties: will the technology be able to overcome technical barriers concerning vehicle design and power supply and city infrastructure readiness? Will the community accept and shift towards urban air mobility technologies? Will urban air mobility be able to offer a cost-efficient solution for business, government and other organizations? PH Tourism and Transportation 2030 Bukas: Opening Tomorrow’s Possibilities 18

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