CRJ Volume 17 Issue 1

CRISIS RESPONSE CRISIS RESPONSE VOL:17 | ISSUE:1 | MARCH 2022 WWW.CRISIS-RESPONSE.COM JOURNAL FOCUS ON BANGLADESH | ETHICS CODE FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT | SUPPLY CHAINS & CRISIS | FOOD SECURITY | HUMAN FACTORS | INNOVATION IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT Protection Prevention Preparedness Response Resilience Recove r y VOL:17 | ISSUE:1 | MARCH 2022 HEAD AND HEART Food Security | Supply Chains | Stress, Wellbeing & PTSD | Cybersecurity | EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE IN A CRISIS Human Factors | Bangladesh Focus

March 2022 | vol:17 | issue:1 contents Editor in Chief News & Comment Leadership learning from Covid-19 ...........28 Emily Hough News ................................................................ 4 What have we learned about crisis [email protected] Governing energy transition risks................8 leadership during this pandemic? Two areas stand out, according to Regina Phelps Assistant Editor Governments must pay close attention to all threats related to the move towards more What have we learned? ................................31 Claire Sanders sustainable energy, says Stefano Betti [email protected] It may be tempting draw a line under Security the Covid-19 pandemic, but this would Design & Production be a mistake says Chloe Demrovsky Promises & perils...........................................12 Chris Pettican Leadership styles & outcomes....................32 [email protected] Keyaan Williams focuses on the need for comprehensive cyber insurance Eric McNulty and Lyndon Bird share News and Blog research the findings of a joint study on multi- Calls to action ................................................16 sector trends during the pandemic Lina Kolesnikova Adam Berry describes how a call to Continuity & leadership Subscriptions action can be used so that responders, local governments and contractors Organisations’ operational health .............34 Crisis Response Journal is published can work cohesively during a crisis quarterly; it is available by subscription in Alexandra Hoffmann and Rob van den hard copy or digital. Governance Eijnden explain how organisations can [email protected] aim for good operational health Extreme risks & preparedness.....................18 Published by Crisis Management Limited, The unexpected value of mobility..............36 Sondes Place Farm, Westcott Road, Dorking Phil Trendall addresses the salient RH4 3EB, UK points in the UK Government’s House Barbara Flügge explains how brand resilience © Crisis Management Limited 2022. of Lords Select Committee Report and organisational growth can be enhanced Articles published may not be reproduced in in an ever-changing and disruptive world any form without prior written permission. The voices of resilience.................................21 Printed in England by The Manson Group, UK Disasters are the new business as usual...38 ISSN 1745-8633 Jeannie Barr summarises the key points arising from the National Avnesh Ratnanesan and Derrick Tin www.crisis-response.com Resilience Strategy call for evidence contend that disasters are fast becoming follow our CRJ company page on LinkedIn business as usual in the corporate world follow us on twitter @editorialcrj The moral compass.......................................22 Audacious goals, remarkable results........ 40 Beverley Griffiths explores ethical theories, underlining the dilemma of choice in the There is a surprising amount that we can learn direction to guide our decision-making by looking at how leaders made decisions over 100 years ago. Brad Borkan investigates Covid-19 Turning a blind eye to red flags ..................42 The curse of the missed opportunity.........24 Tony Jaques asks: What’s the point of crisis Roger Gomm questions whether we red flags if no-one pays any attention? are doomed to repeat quintessential mistakes after the Covid-19 pandemic Resilience in the face of crisis.....................26 Why all plans are not the same...................46 Jennifer Hesterman says there are Andy Marshall discusses the complex world lessons to be learned from the of planning, outlining key differences and Indonesian Government’s actions similarities between the main types of plan Cyber insurance p12 Missed opportunities p24 Donna Grethen | Ikon Images Oivind Hovland | Ikon Images 2 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

CRISISRESPONSE Cover story: Crises, leadership & people – emotional intelligence & empathy commentCover image: Gracie Broom People Peacebuilding & civil defence.................... 80 As CRJ goes to press, we are on day six Making the water visible.............................49 Alistair Harris outlines the positive effects of war in Ukraine. that the Palestinian Civil Defence teams We do not have a crystal Gill Kernick shares her methodology are having in Lebanon’s refugee camps ball; you will be reading for exploring systemic change this several weeks after it Bangladesh focus has been written, and we could be in a Who wants to be a… Crisis manager? ....... 52 maelstrom of our worst-case scenarios (Re-) Defining Bangladesh at 50................82 and fears. I fervently hope that we Andy Blackwell explores the challenges have somehow managed to avoid even faced by crisis managers Guest Editor Haseeb Md Irfanullah greater global atrocity, though it seems introduces this feature on Bangladesh to be stalking ever closer, tracking the Successful interventions ............................. 56 still-warm footsteps of the pandemic. Preparing for opportunity ..........................84 Magdalena Lind and colleagues describe a That will not, of course, mitigate the combined approach for resilience, robustness Fahmida Khatun explores how Bangladesh suffering happening in Ukraine right here, and physical and mental ability to function can seize opportunities when it graduates right now. And what of the other parts of from least developed country status the world also enduring war or terrorism, Burnout & resilience.....................................62 pandemics, famine, floods or fires? A changing climate .......................................86 Mike Rennie calls for policy and practice The greatest privilege of working on to mitigate the effects of burnout for Saleemul Huq, Md Bodrud-Doza and this journal lies in how our readers and both individuals and organisations Khandker Tarin Tahsin outline progress contributors are motivated to make the and challenges in Bangladesh world a better place for others. Our CRJ Supply chains & food security community knows all too well the effects A new reality for Bangladesh ..................... 88 of conflicts and their human toll. Lives Living with shortages ..................................64 lost, intergenerational grief, battered A terrorist attack in Dhaka changed the societies, attacks on civil infrastructure As the post-Covid world takes shape, it is way the world perceived political violence and the use of banned munitions all leave time to think about the configuration of in Bangladesh, says Shamsad Mortuza deep, long-term physical and emotional tomorrow’s supply chains, says Gilles Paché scars and a burning sense of outrage. Bangladesh: Now and beyond .................. 90 Supply chain chaos continues.....................68 As you read this, even if we have Haseeb Md Irfanullah explains that as somehow managed to sidestep Bill Peterson takes a closer look Bangladesh enters the sixth decade cataclysmic escalation, the tragic effects at the conditions and factors of of its independence, it has to deal will be pervasive and long lasting. supply chain challenges with a few major challenges The first casualty when war comes is The foundations of food security ............... 72 Plus truth. The endless scroll of mistruths, propaganda, manipulation, self- Lina Kolesnikova warns that Covid, logistics, Innovations in disaster management ....... 92 centred extreme views, greed and energy policy, rising prices and climate power plays, which sought to divide have social and security ramifications In December 2021, the CRJ hosted a societies and foment distrust between webinar to explore current endeavours people, have all played their part. Worsening food insecurity in Pakistan...... 76 to strengthen the disaster resilience links between all sectors and stakeholders. The darker side of human nature Why are more than one third of its people Nadine Sulkowski reports on the event appears to have gained momentum. food insecure? Luavut Zahid investigates Many thought – in retrospect, with Events.............................................................96 complacency – that it was under control. Response & communities Frontline.........................................................98 As Tony Jaques laments on p42, we Responding to geological hazards ............ 79 Elton Cunha speaks to Sergeant Samira consistently ignore red flags. Buried Coelho Dos Santos about her career among the tsunami of news on Ukraine, Natural hazards require public safety as a military firefighter in Brazil the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report operators to be highly adaptable, says says that climate change is already CRJ Key Network Partner, Pix4D Food insecurity p72 affecting every corner of the world. It warns that some impacts are already too In the spotlight p52 Gillian Blease | Ikon Images severe for adaptation to prevent severe losses and damage, noting that we Denis | Adobe Stock have a narrow window left for change. The truth is, we were warned. We did not heed the approaching drumbeats of this war; will we also fail to act upon the even more dire warnings about climate? I wish I were writing this now with the benefit, relief and safety of hindsight. Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 3

Units work to clean up the oil spill at Cavero beach in Peru after oil spilled during the unloading of a tanker at the La Pampilla refinery owned by Spanish energy company Repsol Gian Masko | DPA | Alamy Live News Oil slick on Peru coast after unloading spill IN WHAT IS being described as Peru’s worst environmental penguins to sea otters, have died, and just as many local disaster in recent memory, approximately 10,000 barrels fishermen have no idea when, if ever, they will be able to of oil spilled while a tanker was being unloaded at the La return to work. Despite a belated clean-up effort involving Pampilla refinery, owned by Spanish company Repsol. hundreds of volunteers and specialists, experts warn that the rich but fragile marine ecosystem may never fully recover.” The oil slick was said to have spread to dozens of beaches across up to 100 miles of coastline. The government banned fishing near In early February, a Repsol representative said that it would the spill, and wildlife in the area was threatened by the slick. finish clearing up the spill by the end of March. It added that the cause of the spill was still under investigation. Foreign Policy reported that: “Thousands of animals, from Cyclones in Madagascar Telling the story of PFAS through pine needles HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of RESEARCHERS FROM NORTH samples dating from 1961 to the present. people needed assistance after Tropical Carolina (NC) State University have used “We were focused primarily on locations Cyclone Batsirai struck the south-east pine needle samples to trace over 70 different coast of Madagascar on February 5. types of per and polyfluoroalkyl (PFAS) in we have modern data for, as well as locations Around 20,500 homes were destroyed, six counties, providing a snapshot of the that are associated with PFAS, like airports, flooded, or damaged. Many schools and evolution of PFAS in the state over a 50-year firefighter training sites and chemical plants health facilities were also damaged. period. The waxy coating of pine needles is like the Chemours facility,” says Belcher. an efficient trap for airborne contaminants “We took samples at those sites and at sites Compounding the crisis was the such as PFAS. As pine trees drop their three to 11 miles away for comparison.” arrival of Tropical Storm Dumako, needles on an annual schedule, researchers which hit the north-east coast ten days can be certain about the points in time they After analysis the team could see later, affecting at least 5,100 people. are looking at when they take samples. when the new, shorter chain chemicals were introduced, when old ones were Response efforts included health Erin Baker, associate professor of phased out and where specific PFAS consultations, distribution of cash and hot chemistry at NC State and her colleague were being used, ie real-time changes meals to displaced families, restoration of Scott Belcher and PhD candidate, along in contamination. “This is way bigger access to clean water and provision of shelter with lead author Kaylie Kirkwood, than North Carolina – it’s applicable to items to support families to return home. obtained 60 pine needle samples from sites all over the world,” adds Baker. sites across the state. They also used 15 ■ The research appears in Environmental Science & As CRJ went to press, a further storm pine needle samples from the NC State Technology, DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.1c06483 with the potential to develop into a and Duke University herbaria, looking at ■ See CRJ 16:1 for Emily Hough’s interview with tropical cyclone or intense tropical cyclone Robert Bilott about the dangers of PFAS was threatening to make landfall. 4 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

news ‘Noise, Blazes and Mismatches’ in brief WILDFIRES ARE BURNING more who have been directly affected by the fires. Greece: Ten people were severely and more often, urban noise Smoke and particulate matter affect health in missing after a ferry caught pollution is a global public health menace downwind settlements. Changes in fire regimes fire off the island of Corfu. and phenological mismatches are causing are also expected to lead to massive biodiversity The blaze is thought to have ecological consequences, says the UN loss. Wildfires generate black carbon and other started on the car deck and Environment Programme’s Frontiers Report. pollutants that affect water sources, enhance the missing people are all the melting of glaciers, cause landslides, large- thought to be lorry drivers Unwanted, prolonged and high-level scale algal blooms in oceans, and turn carbon from Bulgaria, Greece and sounds from road traffic, railways or leisure sinks such as rainforests into carbon sources. Turkey. More than 270 people activities impair human health and wellbeing. were evacuated from the ferry. This includes chronic annoyance and sleep The report also examines how climate change disturbance, resulting in severe heart disrupts natural rhythms in plants and animals. Portugal & Spain: Record diseases and metabolic disorders. It is also a low levels of rainfall have threat to animals, altering communications Phenological shifts are disruptions in raised farmers’ fears for their and behaviour of various species. the timing of life-cycle stages in natural crops. In February, a weather systems. The concern is that interacting spokesperson said that the The report examines wildfires, saying species in an ecosystem do not always shift below-average rainfall over that between 2002 and 2016, an average of their timing in the same direction or at the the last six months was likely about 4.23 million square kilometres of the same rate. Phenological shifts in crops will be to continue for several weeks. Earth’s land surface burned each year. An challenging for food production in the face Read Lina Kolesnikova’s estimated 67 per cent of the annual global of climate change. Shifts in the phenology of article on food security, p72. area burned by all types of fires, including marine species and their prey have significant wildfires, was on the African continent. consequences for stock and fisheries, warns the Argentina: In late January, report, which calls for further research into more than 1,000 wildfires Dangerous wildfire weather is projected to the full impacts of phenological mismatches.   were burning in the north- become more frequent, intense and to last longer. ■ The report can be downloaded at: unep.org eastern province of Corrientes. Plagued by low rainfall, a Long-term effects extend beyond those people heatwave and drought, more than 1.3 million acres have Reuters | Alamy Stock Photo burned since the blazes started in December. Deadly floods and landslides in Brazil Europe: Two storms raged HEAVY RAINS SINCE December have a geography professor at the Federal across Europe in rapid led to widespread landslides and flooding University of Rio de Janeiro, said that succession, leaving millions in Brazil. In February, more than 176 clearing forests and building houses are without power, halting people in the city of Petrópolis died after also to blame for the disaster: “Rain is the travel, damaging transport a mudslide swept away cars and buses, great villain, but the main cause is poor infrastructure and buildings, flooding streets and destroying houses. land use. There’s a total lack of planning,” and leaving at least 12 Antonio Guerra told The Associated Press. people dead. Storm Ylena While extreme rainfall was the trigger, (also known as Dudley), and Zeynep (Eunice) left a swathe of destruction across Germany, Britain, Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Poland. USA: The State of California has introduced legislation – known as AB 2238 – to create an advance warning and ranking system for extreme heatwaves. The ranking will include the projected health impact of heatwaves, along with meteorological data, such as maximum and minimum temperatures and how long a heatwave is predicted to persist. Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 5

Tsunami and ash damage in Tonga Matthew Leane | Alamy Stock THE HUNGA-TONGA-HUNGA-HA’APAI volcanic eruption, tsunami and ashfall have caused an estimated $90.4 million in damages – the equivalent of approximately 18.5 per cent of Tonga’s GDP – a World Bank assessment for the Government of Tonga has found. An estimated 85,000 people across Tonga were affected by what has been described as a ‘once in a millennium event’. Parts of Tonga’s most populated islands – Tongatapu, ‘Eua and the Ha’apai group – saw the worst of the tsunami, with major disruptions to water supplies contaminated with ashfall. Tongatapu recorded the highest estimated damage; some islands like Atatā and Mango experienced almost complete destruction, while elsewhere, the Vava’u group saw only minimal damage from ashfall. Around 600 structures, including at least 300 homes, were damaged or destroyed by tsunami waves, with tourism being particularly affected. Farms were also badly affected, including destroyed crops and damage to fisheries. Meanwhile, roads, causeways, power supplies and water supply infrastructure were also badly damaged. The World Bank estimates that cleaning up the ash will be expensive, with costs estimated at just under $5 million for buildings and roads. The Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) report on the January 15 eruption was prepared by the World Bank at the request of the Government of Tonga and in consultation with other partners. ■ The full report can be downloaded here: thedocs.worldbank.org World Food Programme Major flooding in Australia Hunger Hotspots Report AS CRJ WENT to press, eight people had died in THE HUNGER HOTSPOTS REPORT FROM the World Food Programme Australia after days of intense rain and extreme flooding. (WFP) and Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) says that Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen remain the countries of highest concern. “Some of the rainfall totals that we’ve seen over the All four countries had areas where people were experiencing, or were projected course of this event have been approaching rainfall to experience, starvation and death, requiring the most urgent attention. totals that we would normally expect over the course of a year,” Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Diana Targeted humanitarian action is urgently needed to save lives Eden was reported as saying in The Guardian. and livelihoods in the 20 hotspots, says the report. In four of these – Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen – humanitarian A river in the northern New South Wales town of actions are critical to preventing starvation and death. Lismore broke its banks and rose to 14.37 metres, while in Queensland the Brisbane River rose substantially, The report provides country-specific recommendations on priorities causing extensive damage; about 18,000 homes in for emergency response and anticipatory action to address existing Brisbane and surrounding areas were said to have been humanitarian needs and ensure short-term protective interventions. flooded. Reports say that more than 50,000 homes were left without power in south-east Queensland. The report shows that the links between hunger and conflict are complex and far-reaching. Many are fleeing conflict and have been The premier of Queensland noted that there had forced to abandon their land, homes and jobs. These trends are likely been an: “Unpredictable rain bomb over the entire to continue in Myanmar, Central African Republic, the Democratic south-east. “No-one has seen this much rain in such Republic of the Congo, Central Sahel, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, a short amount of time,” she continued, saying that the northern parts of Ethiopia, Nigeria and Mozambique. emergency services had carried out 113 water rescues and more than 1,500 people had been evacuated. For WFP and FAO, climate change: “Is no longer a glimpse into the future, but the daily reality for communities around the world.” This On February 27, Queensland Fire and Emergency can already be seen in Haiti, Eastern Africa, Madagascar, Mozambique, Services reported that it had been receiving 100 calls and recently in Afghanistan’s western region of Badghis. At the same for help every hour. An emergency services officer time, post-pandemic economic challenges persist, and will continue to whose vehicle was swept away on the way to rescue drive food prices higher. Despite a brief decrease in mid-2021, world food a family was among those who lost their lives. prices have been rising since May 2020, with the areas of most concern, being the Near East, North Africa and Central and Eastern Asia.  The Bureau of Meteorology warned that ■ See pages p72 and p76 for food security analyses March to May rainfall was also likely to be above median for large parts of Australia. 6 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

news Global Risks Report 2022 Climate consequences on pathogens THE GLOBAL RISKS REPORT 2022 shares the results A STUDY SUGGESTS it will be increasingly difficult to predict the of the latest Global Risks Perception Survey in the context consequences of climate change on host-pathogen interactions as global of the current global outlook, followed by an analysis of temperatures rise and extreme weather events become more common. growing divergences in the areas of climate transition, cybersecurity, mobility, and outer space. It examines the A team examined the effects of different temperatures on various traits in tensions arising from such divergence, spillover effects, a crustacean called Daphnia magna and its gut parasite. It examined how consequences for stakeholders and shocks that could the organisms responded to three temperature regimes then measured the arise. The report concludes with reflections on resilience, crustacean’s lifespan, fertility, infection status and the number of parasite drawing from the lessons of year two of the pandemic. spores within their gut. The team found that daily fluctuations of temperature reduced the infectivity and spore burden of the parasite compared to Respondents noted that societal and environmental those kept at the constant average temperature. However, the infectivity of risks have worsened the most since the start of the parasites after a heatwave was almost the same as the infectivity of those pandemic, with social cohesion erosion and livelihood maintained at the constant temperature. Host fitness and reproductive crises in the top spots. Other risks identified as having success were generally reduced in the crustaceans exposed to the parasite worsened significantly are debt crises, cybersecurity spores or experiencing variable temperatures. The difference between the failures, digital inequality and backlash against science. host and pathogen responses suggests that under some circumstances, the parasites could withstand the sudden change in heat better than their hosts. Eighty-nine per cent perceived the short-term outlook ■ Kunze C et al (2022): Alternate pattens of temperature variation bring about very to be volatile, fractured or increasingly catastrophic. different disease outcomes at different mean temperatures, elifesciences.org Societal scarring compounds the challenges Long-term impacts of border closures of national policymaking, limiting the political capital, focus from leaders and public support AUSTRALIA’S EXTENDED INTERNATIONAL Covid-19 needed to strengthen international co-operation border closures led to high levels of psychological distress across the on global challenges, the report notes. community, with experts suggesting future pandemic policy settings should consider the toll on people’s mental health and wellbeing. And the health of the planet remains a constant concern, with extreme weather and climate action failure A recent study of almost 4,000 people living in (63 per cent) and outside appearing as the top short, medium and long-term risks. (34 per cent) Australia found that the international border restrictions had In the longer-term, geopolitical and technological risks a negative impact on their mental health. Participants reported a variety are of concern, including geo-economic confrontations, of reasons why their mental health had been negatively affected: Wanting geopolitical resource contestation and cybersecurity failure. to be with partners, family and friends; economic or employment reasons; study; personal safety and health; or holiday. Being separated from partners Respondents’ views on 15 governance areas signal and those with interrupted study pathways caused the highest distress. broad disappointment with international risk mitigation ■ Authored by Ali K, Iasiello M, van Agteren J, Mavrangelos T, Kyrios M & and Fassnacht DB, the efforts. Artificial intelligence, space exploitation, paper is published in Globalization and Health DOI:10.1186/s12992-022-00807-7 cross-border cyber attacks and misinformation, migration and refugees were viewed as being areas where international mitigation has not started. ■ www3.weforum.org Sea level rise in the USA Selcuk | Adobe Stock COASTAL FLOODING WILL increase significantly over Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 7 the next 30 years because of sea level rise, according to a new report by an interagency sea level rise task force that includes NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other US federal agencies. Titled Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States, the report published in February concludes that sea levels along US coastlines will rise between 10 to 12 inches (25 to 30 centimetres) on average above today’s levels by 2050. The report forecasts sea level to the year 2150 and, for the first time, offers near-term projections for the next 30 years. Agencies at the federal, state and local levels use these reports to inform their plans on anticipating and coping with the effects of sea level rise. “This report supports previous studies and confirms what we have long known: Sea levels are continuing to rise at an alarming rate, endangering communities around the world. Science is indisputable and urgent action is required to mitigate a climate crisis that is well underway,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. ■ The full report can be viewed at: oceanservice.noaa.gov Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com

Governing the security risks of the energy transition It is imperative that governments pay close attention to all threats related to the move towards more sustainable energy, says Stefano Betti, suggesting that a lack of interagency co-ordination, institutional inertia or cultural biases mean we could fail to anticipate looming threats T he connections between climate change and global significant pools of frustration and resentment for a security have been under scrutiny for several years. variety of often conflicting reasons. Moreover, in a context The discussion focuses mostly on the intercommunal where renewable energy sources are not considered tensions and geopolitical strains triggered by to be replacing fossil fuels at the speed that is desired, desertification, land degradation, food insecurity and the global revival of nuclear energy begs the question competition for scarce resources. Little attention has about security risks posed by the construction of tens been paid to how governments’ management of the of new nuclear reactors in the coming years, including current phase of energy transition risks sparking new in countries that are going nuclear for the first time. waves of political violence and acts of sabotage. The model of ‘multilateral climate diplomacy’ The shift to cleaner sources of energy is indeed creating demonstrated at last year’s COP26 summit has amplified Advisory Panel Elton Cunha Municipal Director of Barra Lord Toby Harris Chair of the National Velha Municipal Civil Defence, Brazil Preparedness Commission, UK Paola Albrito Chief of Branch, Intergovernmental processes, Interagency Dennis Davis CBE, OStJ, QFSM, MPhil, Dr Jennifer Hesterman USAF (Ret), co-ordination & Partnerships, UNDRR CEng, FIFireE, CCMI, Civil Protection VP Watermark Risk Management, adviser Albrecht Beck Director Prepared Advisor, Vice Chairman FSF, VP, CTIF, Homeland Security Training Institute, USA International, Senior Disaster Preparedness UK Deborah Higgins Head of the Cabinet and Evacuation Expert, Germany Chloe Demrovsky President and CEO of Office Emergency Planning College, UK Chris Berry Compliance Director with Disaster Research Institute International PTL and founder of Initsys, UK (DRI), USA Alice Hill Senior Fellow for Climate Major Erik L J L De Soir Associate Change Policy at the Council on Foreign Lyndon Bird Chief Knowledge Officer at Professiate Professor in Psychotraumatology Relations, USA DRI International (Disaster Recovery & Crisis Psychology, Royal Higher Institute Brig Gen D Alois A Hirschmugl Institute), UK of Defence, Belgium Humanitarian Affairs Advisor to Chief of Andy Blackwell Independent Security and Brian Dillon MSc BSc (Hons), expert in Defence Staff, Austria Resilience Consultant, former Head of counter-terrorism operational response and Arn Howitt MA, PhD, former Executive Corporate Security, Virgin Atlantic contingency planning, UK Director, Ash Center for Democratic Helen Braithwaite OBE, Head of Colonel Robert ‘Rob’ Fagan US Army Governance & Innovation, John F Kennedy National Cyber Security, Standards, (Retired), Crisis Management Consultant, School of Government, Harvard, USA Training & Exercising, MHCLG, UK USA Lucian Hudson Board Chair, Andrew B Brown CMgr FCMI, FSyl, Paolo Garonna Professor of Political Communications Director, former UK Chief Security Officer and independent Crisis Economy, LUISS Guido Carli University of Government Chief Spokesperson on climate and Hostage Negotiation Expert, UK Rome, Italy change Winston Chang Global Thematic Focal Roger Gomm QPM, Advisor, Trainer, Haseeb MD Irfanullah Independent Point for the International Search & Rescue Consultant, Associate Lecturer, Cabinet Consultant on Environment, Climate Advisory Group Secretariat, Geneva Office Emergency Planning College, UK Change & Research Systems, Bangladesh Dr Gregory Ciottone MD, FACEP, Beverley Griffiths Senior Lecturer in Christine Jessup is a professional FFSEM, President of the World Association Emergency Planning, University of educator of more than 35 years, based in for Disaster and Emergency Medicine, USA Wolverhampton, UK Australia Jeremy Collymore Honorary Research Jon Hall Founder & MD of the Resilience Ørjan N Karlsson Specialist Director & Fellow, Institute of Sustainable Development, Advisors Network, UK research fellow, Nord University, Norway University of West Indies 8 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

Fresh Idea | Adobe Stock Arjun Katoch Emergency and Disaster Matt Minshall Specialist in defence, Andrew Staniforth Director of Saher Management Advisor, India security and resilience project management, Europe, UK UK Lina Kolesnikova Consultant in Mostafa Mohaghegh Senior Co- Dr Jörg Szarzynski Co-Head of Global international relations, security, risk and ordinator, Asia and Pacific Centre for Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS) crisis management, Brussels, Belgium Development of Disaster Information Programme, Germany Dr Patrick Lagadec Former Senior Management (APDIM) Denise DP Thompson PhD, Associate Research Scientist, Paris, Consultant in Peter Patel Founder and International Professor, Department of Public Management, crisis intelligence and leadership, France Director of the Faculty of Disaster Medicine, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, USA Dr Jay Levinson Adj Professor at the John India & Nepal Andy Towler Expert in disaster and Jay College of Criminal Justice, USA Alvaro Pemartin MD Emergency Doctor, emergency management and founder of The Nostra Senyora de Meritxell Hospital, Resilience Group Ltd, UK Maj Gen Jassim Al Mansouri Former Andorra Philip Trendall Emergency Planning Director General of the Kuwait Fire Service Dr Gianluca Pescaroli Assistant Consultant, UK Directorate, Kuwait Professor and Lecturer in Business Andy Marshall GPO Group Director, Continuity and Organisational Resilience at Mladen Vratonjić Board Chair and Business Continuity Management, UCL, UK Director at TCCA, UK, Vice President, AstraZeneca, UK William Peterson Senior Consultant, EENA, Serbia Laurence Marzell Founder of Whole Strategic Government Resources, former David Wales MSc CCXP FRSA, Founder Systems Approach, UK Regional Administrator, FEMA Region 6 of SharedAim Ltd, UK Kate Rawlins Associate Director, Digital Stewart Mashiter Senior Lecturer in Capability at Helpful Digital, UK Charles Werner Founder and Director of Emergency Planning, University of Droneresponders, USA Wolverhampton, UK David Rubens DSyRM, CSyP, FSyl, MD Robert McAlister Strategic Co- Deltar Training Services Ltd, UK Keyaan Williams Founder & MD of ordination and Crisis Specialist, UK Cyber Leadership and Strategy Solutions Jacqui Semple Chair of the Emergency (CLASS-LLC), USA Eric J McNulty Associate Director and Planning Society, UK Tomasz Zweglinski Director at the Program Faculty, NPLI, Harvard University, Internal Security Institute at the Main USA Terje Skavdal Project Manager, USAR School of Fire Service, Warsaw, Poland Capacity Building, Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection, Norway Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 9

a sense of general exasperation at the slow pace of ‘green revolution’ mainly through the prism of job progress in moving to a carbon-neutral economy. losses that have hitherto been guaranteed by the fossil fuel industry and the unaffordable increase Warnings by authoritative leaders about how the in utility bills. Some frame the energy transition Glasgow conference was the last chance to avert as a pretext by governing elites to weaponise the catastrophe have catalysed the world’s attention climate emergency against the weakest in society. on the urgent need to tackle the problem, but they have also contributed to public anxiety about Governments are increasingly aware of the what the future holds for our next generations. need to plug social justice measures into their environmental goals. As the Director General of the In a context of growing disillusionment, while the International Labour Organisation put it: “People vast majority of ‘green’ militants will continue to protest have to think about the end of the month before peacefully, single individuals or groups may be tempted to they can think about the end of the world.” follow a more radical path. They could seek, for example, to cripple critical infrastructure involved in fossil fuel European leaders have not forgotten the exploitation in an attempt to shake a political class that experience of the ‘Yellow Vests’ (Gilets Jaunes), whose they consider to be plagued by inertia and hypocrisy. establishment in 2018 was triggered by the French Government introducing a green tax on fuels. Unlike in the past, the assets and processes that form the backbone of today’s social and economic Current measures to offset the socioeconomic life – including in the energy sector – are exposed to disruptions of the energy transition, however, may not be enough, or simply not appropriate to defuse Unless a strong cybersecurity the risks posed by the violence-prone elements acting culture takes root, new on the margins of legitimate protest movements. attacks against carbon-related infrastructure could be carried Moreover, a recent report by Avaaz, an online out for ideological purposes grassroots network, found that the YouTube’s algorithm is driving millions of users searching accrued cyber threats determined by the infrastructure’s for ‘global warming’, ‘climate change’ and ‘climate extensive reliance on internet-connected industrial control manipulation’ to watch misleading videos. systems. In May last year, the ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline blocked critical supplies of gasoline Misinformation campaigns have been at the root of and led four US states to declare a state of emergency. some successful community actions against projects to build infrastructure that exploits renewable Unless a strong cybersecurity culture takes root, new energies. In 2012, for example, a solar farm in attacks against other carbon-related infrastructure may Massachusetts could not be completed as residents be replicated using the same hacking toolkits, but this voiced concerns over: “Toxic chemicals in the panels time for ideological rather than profit-making purposes. and the output of electromagnetic frequency.” Perhaps less intuitively, as ordinary people In the US, several municipalities are adopting become increasingly aware of the vast energy ordinances to block or restrict the construction of requirements that servers need, a stream of renewable energy facilities. The successful use of new environmental terrorism may take aim at these legal avenues to challenge proposed green technology companies and their infrastructure. projects may indeed manage to assuage local discontent. However, local governments in the US One of the weakest – and vastly overlooked may not always be willing to or succeed in curbing – points of the digital economy are the half a such projects, and citizens of other countries may not million miles of undersea cables through which have comparable means of redress at their disposal. 99 per cent of the world’s data traffic flows. In an increasingly incendiary landscape where While no terrorist act has been recorded so far green initiatives are often demonised, it is conceivable that has affected such infrastructure, malicious that disgruntled individuals or groups may decide actors would not need to rely on sophisticated to take the matter into their own hands. weapons to cut cables on the seabed. Nuclear energy Additionally, information about the location of nearly all of these cables is publicly available. The A further element of complexity in the energy-related threat involves not only the cable sections that security landscape lies in the renewed global interest run along or underneath the seabed, but also in nuclear energy, which for many represents the those onshore and related landing facilities. best compromise in a situation where fossil fuels need to be quickly abandoned, while other sources Cryptocurrency mining is also an extremely power- of renewable energy are struggling to take off. hungry activity that could come into the crosshairs of violent actors. According to various estimates, The World Nuclear Association has counted at Bitcoin’s annual carbon footprint is comparable least 30 countries that are exploring, designing or with the consumption of whole countries. starting nuclear power programmes. Crucially, the building of some nuclear power plants is being While certain groups fight for a faster shift to considered in countries (eg Iraq, Libya Syria and green energy sources, others are mobilised for Yemen) that are highly volatile and within the easy exactly the opposite reasons. These latter view the reach of a whole array of violent groups and militias. With this backdrop, it should not be forgotten that since 2001, the nightmare scenario for security experts around the world has been the prospect of a terrorist group 10 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

comment replicating the 9/11 scenario against a nuclear reactor, multi-dimensional process where issues of energy supply, Brilliant Eye | potentially by means of a swarm of explosive-laden drones. environmental sustainability and economic or social Adobe Stock fairness are systematically examined in the light of its Experience shows that lack of interagency co-ordination, many current and future security implications. institutional inertia or cultural biases can result in national agencies failing to anticipate or neglecting References certain looming threats, while over-focusing on others. A recent lesson learned comes from New Zealand. ■ Digiconomist: Bitcoin energy consumption index, digiconomist.net; ■ Alder L (2021): Europe fears that the rising cost of climate action Following the 2019 mosque shootings by a white is stirring anger, nytimes.com; supremacist in Christchurch, one of the findings of ■ Avaaz Report (2020): Why is YouTube broadcasting climate the Royal Commission of Inquiry was that: “The misinformation to millions? avaazimages.avaaz.org; concentration of counterterrorism resources on ■ Goyal R, Marsh K, McKee N & Welch M (2021): Opposition to the threat of Islamic extremist terrorism (…) was renewable energy facilities in the United States, Columbia Law inappropriate because it was not based on an informed School, climate.law.columbia.edu; assessment of the threats of terrorism associated ■ World Nuclear Association (2022): Plans for new reactors with other ideologies.” It would be unfortunate if the worldwide, world-nuclear.org; early signs of new menaces – however weak – were ■ World Nuclear Association (2021): Emerging nuclear energy overlooked because public authorities devote exclusive countries, world-nuclear.org; attention to more ‘familiar’ sources of threat. ■ Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Terrorist Attack on Christchurch Mosque on 15 March 2019: Consolidated findings, While none of the above-mentioned scenarios christchurchattack.royalcommission.nz is inevitable, various social and economic drivers point towards the potential for actors with very Author diverse backgrounds to go underground and exploit the current phase of energy transition – with its STEFANO BETTI is an international security and polarising narratives – to engage in different criminal policy expert. He collaborates with several forms and degrees of violent behaviour. international organisations, including the UN Office of Counter Terrorism. He is an Associate Fellow at the To grasp the nature and extent of the risk – and International Institute for Strategic Studies eventually put in place the appropriate mitigation measures – the green revolution needs to be framed as a Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 11

The promises and perils of cyber insurance Keyaan Williams continues the conversation he started in CRJ 16.3, focusing on the need for comprehensive cyber insurance to equip organisations and their leadership to make sound decisions T he connections between cybersecurity and risk The future of the cyber insurance market does not look management are key areas of focus within corporate bright as fewer insurers are willing to issue such policies governance. Boards and management teams must develop because of the number of claims they are seeing. Those effective strategies and make sound decisions to support the that remain are reducing the limits of coverage they success of their organisations and their ongoing survival. offer. Underwriting scrutiny will continue to increase and insurers will expand their focus on quantifying Covid-19 triggered a dramatic transition from a and mitigating the risks they are willing to accept. traditional in-office environment to remote working, which also shifted daily work and the way that employees Interconnected systems lead cyber insurance to be interacted with corporate computer systems and data. an all-or-nothing proposition. The data tells us that However, working remotely has proven to intensify organisations across regions, industries, or revenue cyber risk exponentially. Organisations are calling for bands are underperforming and only maintaining a digital innovation to provide better, smarter decisions basic level of readiness related to implementing essential that support the new way of doing business. They protection and reducing cyber risk. Whether renewing must therefore choose between the benefits of digital with the same company or seeking a new provider, evolution and the risk associated with the cybersecurity organisations in the market for cyber insurance should failures of their vendors and supply chain providers. pay attention to the coverage and limitations outlined front and centre in the policy documentation. Compromising on cybersecurity Before shopping for cyber insurance, organisations The most recent Public Company Board Governance must ensure adequate protections are in place to reduce Survey conducted by the US National Association their susceptibility to ransomware and other attacks of Corporate Directors from 2019 to 2020 found that because insurance coverage will be difficult if the directors in public companies are not prioritising basics are not addressed. Mature programmes reduce cybersecurity when confronting friction between digital the likelihood of an insurance claim and increase innovation and management of cyber risks. In fact, of insurability. Some questions to ask could include: the directors surveyed: “Sixty-one per cent reported that ● Does the organisation use multifactor they would be willing to compromise on cybersecurity authentication (MFA) for remote and administrative to achieve business objectives.” The continuous drive access to corporate systems and data? for innovation often overlooks fundamental security ● Does it use endpoint detection and response requirements like building security into products and (EDR), which replaces traditional antivirus services and ensuring essential controls are in place to solutions and is becoming an expected control protect intellectual property and personal information. to support approval of cyber insurance? By treating cyber risk as a business threat companies can ● Are backups of critical data secured, ensure that it is mitigated properly and remaining risks are encrypted, and tested regularly? transferred off the balance sheet with the right insurance. ● Does a solution exist for privileged account management (PAM) to ensure that administrative credentials used Cyber insurance is one of many commercial risk inside the organisation are not compromised? and management tools available. Successfully transferring risk ● Does the organisation use email filtering off the balance sheet with this specialist insurance product and web security to protect communications requires an understanding of the market dynamics that and common attack vectors? are influencing the options currently available. The sharp uptick in ransomware cases, coupled with supply chain These controls are red flags from the perspective and vendor vulnerabilities, is causing an unbelievable of the insurance company and help to tell the story of impact on the cyber insurance market. According to whether the company is a good or bad cybersecurity Aon: “Cyber insurers reported a 336 per cent increase risk. Organisations may find that an insurer is in claims from the start of 2019 to 2020.” The number unwilling to enter into a relationship if evidence and variety of ransomware attacks exploded in 2020 is not available to prove that these controls are in and continue to increase into the first quarter of 2022. place, are effective and configured properly. 12 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

security Donna Grethen | Ikon Images Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 13

Management of end-of-life systems is also a significant whole, but some costs will not be covered. Whether the insurance concern for insurance coverage. Legacy systems are more likely company pays a ransom demand depends on many factors. The to be compromised, which increases the likelihood of a high organisation should be intimately familiar with the requirements premium or designation as uninsurable if there is no proof that for co-ordinating with the insurance company. There are many appropriate protections are in place to manage that risk. considerations that affect whether a ransom payment is approved Where there are too many negative factors related to the security as a covered activity. The insurance company will consider the posture of an organisation, insurance companies may find that best option to get the company up and running again based on the providing insurance is not a risk worth taking and an organisation language in the policy and coverage limits. It will also weigh the is simply deemed uninsurable. When the risk of offering coverage ethical and legal impacts of its decision on the insurance company is more than the insurer is willing or able to accept, it would be itself and the insured organisation. For example, choosing to pay more effective for organisations to invest in improving their security a ransom demand could affect governance and ESG concerns. posture and controls rather than paying a high insurance premium. Negotiators from the insurance company will often be involved if it Ransomware is one of the greatest threats. According determines that paying the ransom is the best option and will work to to a 2021 report from Palo Alto Networks’ Unit 42: “The reduce the payment as much as possible, which explains the significant average (year on year) ransomware payment is up 82 per cent, difference between average ransom demands and payments. coming in at a record $570,000.” Ransoms demanded and Insurance companies will not violate national or international payments made are expected to increase throughout 2022. regulations. Some nations have ethics laws that prohibit the Ransomware is often related use of some cryptocurrency to organised crime, with gangs Interconnected systems exchanges. For example, the US indiscriminately looking for open and Treasury Department’s Office of public vulnerabilities. Threat actors lead cyber insurance to be Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) conducting ransomware campaigns released updated guidance for have an organised ecosystem that an all-or-nothing proposition the cryptocurrency industry in allows the deployment of widespread 2021 that highlights sanctions attacks as an established economy compliance requirements and for ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS). The risk is more about the provides industry-specific advice regarding its compliance effectiveness of security programmes and their management of expectations. OFAC recommends actors in the virtual currency vulnerabilities than the prestige and reputation of the victim space to be mindful of red flags that are generally indicative organisations. If criminals gain any foothold in an organisation, they of money laundering or other illicit financial activity because use a combination of encryption, data theft, denial of service (DoS) they may also be indicative of potential sanctions evasion. and harassment to pressure victims to pay at least part of the demand. The best use of insurance is never to have to use it. Coupled with Reputable insurers continue to offer coverage for ransomware; digital innovation, cyber insurance is part of the balancing act however, restrictions are becoming common. The criminal aspect between risk and opportunity. The policies offered and coverage of ransomware influences the position that the insurance provider provided are constantly adapting to new exposures. Companies takes related to responding to a successful attack. As the number must close cyber risk and security gaps if insurance is going to of cyber insurance providers decreases, remaining providers are be a viable option. They must consider how they are going to becoming more averse to this risk and increasing prices. A growing navigate new exposures as they execute their digital innovation number of insurers are denying claims because ransomware is strategies. They must also know their partners and understand preventable. The Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) published its the risk to which they are exposed because of the people and Strategies to Mitigate Targeted Cyber Intrusions, based on its experience organisations they work with. They must ensure adequate controls, in responding to cybersecurity incidents and has continued to and perfect basic practices and principles of cybersecurity. update guidance demonstrating that 85 per cent of targeted Continually improving the maturity of security controls and the attacks are prevented by timely patching, limiting administrative security programme overall are key to using cyber insurance to access to systems and services, and application whitelisting. cover novel, unexpected risks rather than relying on insurance to “Insurance is a contract represented by a policy in which the respond to a lack of basic cyber hygiene. insured receives financial protection or reimbursement against losses from an insurance company” (CRJ 16.3). Although the insurance References market is contracting and costs are rising, cyber insurance continues ■ National Association of Corporate Directors: The Current State of the American to offer significant value for organisations that are a good risk for Boardroom, nacdonline.org; the insurance companies. This is one of the few insurance products ■ AON (2021): Balancing risk and opportunity through better decisions, aon.com; that provide first party and third party coverage in the same ■ Palo Alto Networks (2021): 2021 Unit 42 Ransomware Threat Report, policy to support all issues potentially related to a cyber incident. start.paloaltonetworks.com; It is important to understand the benefits and obligations ■ Australian Cyber Security Centre: Strategies to Mitigate Cyber Security in the policy. Following prescribed requirements is important Incidents, cyber.gov.au; for access to resources like forensic support provided by the ■ Williams K (2021): Managing risk with cyber insurance, Crisis Response policy. Some policies require immediate notification of a Journal 16:3; suspected breach while others require immediate notification ■ Department of the Treasury, Washington DC (2021): Updated Advisory on of a confirmed breach. Many policies provide an insurer- Potential Sanction Risks for Facilitating Ransomware Payments, home.treasury.gov approved breach counsel. Organisations should partner with their insurance company to confirm approved or recommended Author vendors and avoid surprises if a claim is filed in the future. KEYAAN WILLIAMS is the founder and Managing Director of Organisations should also remain aware of exclusions. An Cyber Leadership and Strategy Solutions (CLASS-LLC) and a insurance policy describes coverage required to make the insured Member of the CRJ Advisory Panel 14 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj



Calls to action in incident response Adam Berry describes how a call to action can be used in a meaningful way so that responders, local governments and contractors can mobilise and work cohesively during a crisis A ‘call to action’ is a phrase that developed in the military by the 999 system in the UK, but the network is during the English Civil War of the 1600s. It meant overloaded and sometimes a first responder isn’t mobilising militia to deal with a local problem or joining available. We all know that it’s almost always too others to create a volunteer army. Over the years, it late if we rely on an ambulance, despite the heroic became a general call to arms throughout the British work done by emergency medical workers. And the Empire. Both the army and navy have a call to action phrase, ‘Stay on the line caller’, is no longer practical. bugle call, sometimes called ‘action stations’. You will have But a CTA can provide a solution via the LRN; heard this on Remembrance Day during the Last Post all it takes is a second telephone call after the call to because it is part of that sequence of bugle calls. Almost emergency services; you do not even need to speak. every nation has its own version of a call to action (CTA). The network will immediately link you to AED A CTA in these modern times could be the mobilisation response volunteers who have been ‘called to action’, of a volunteer army. As the UK’s House of Lords report if you need a device. This is achieved by connecting from December 2021 suggests: “The Government will your home telephone to the local resilience grid in not succeed in anticipating every threat or hazard. For advance. It is simple, effective, very efficient and can that reason, the country needs to be prepared to recover be expanded using interactive voice response if your from shocks to which it is vulnerable. That capacity to community has a trauma kit or other expertise. recover must be based on a flexible, adaptable and diverse ■ Road closures: Local authorities often face population that appreciates the need for its resilience.” great demands to deal with fallen trees and other Action stations debris when a storm passes. But, what happens when a road remains open, despite being blocked? The new Local Resilience platform introduced by A fallen tree is just around the corner, yet the road Initsys in the UK allows local government, from is empty; this is an accident waiting to happen. It parish to nationwide, to use the concept of a CTA in usually takes hours for the tree to be moved or for a meaningful way – to enable volunteers, first and the erection of signs to indicate the road is closed. second-line responders, However, what if the signs council employees and Cameras have reduced could be delegated to the contractors to act in concert. local community? This is A CTA triggers a profile, an crime and stopped the another task that could be actionable, largely automated done safely and quickly by script that follows a path community from being a suitably trained volunteers. to resolution. It can handle Using the LRN tools, a even the most complicated haven for stolen vehicles blocked road after a storm, for plans with multiple entry example, triggers a CTA. A points and questions contractor that is designated – pathway changes and parallel processes – as to deal with the debris and tree is mobilised. Community well as associated responders and groups. volunteers, storing road closure signs locally, mark Let’s look at some simple CTAs ready for deployment the road. Instruction and mobilisation are entirely in the Local Resilience Network (LRN). automatic, based on the geolocation of the block. ■ Automated external defibrillators (AEDs): This frees the police and road maintenance Time is of the essence. Imagine you are at home personnel to deal with potentially more hazardous with your partner and one of you suffers a heart incidents. And maybe, more importantly, it enables attack. Do you leave the person to fetch the AED? them to provide warnings earlier, as several people Medical practitioners vary in their responses; some have been killed after hitting a fallen tree blocking say you should go and retrieve the AED, while others a road in the UK. Many of these incidents, coming say to stay with the patient. It’s a quandary. hours after reports of the tree, could have been avoided Some first responders are directed to an incident with the earlier deployment of road closures. 16 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

key network partner All CCTV systems are compatible with the Local Resilience Network, which uses high speed analytics and robotically controlled speech to monitor and deter potential criminals Local Resilience/ Initsys ■ Flooding: Often, flooding alerts are confined to with the LRN; this is one of the primary uses of Initsys coastal regions, large rivers, estuaries and known flood products in the field of operational resilience (business regions. However, they can happen anywhere, not just resilience). Communities can use traditional and video on low ground. Local communities have often criticised surveillance as a service (VSaaS) systems to connect to the authorities for not understanding or considering their fears. LRN and monitor buildings against vandalism and theft. The installation of upstream sensors on even the The LRN includes high-speed deep learning analytics most minor streams and rivers can be achieved to give a virtual false alarm-free detection method cheaply, often with assistance from insurers. without human involvement. In many cases, the robotically controlled speech module is used to ward However, these sensors need management, and off vandals and those with more devious intent. environment agencies can be reluctant to allocate resources to small risks. The LRN is compatible with Local Resilience has a connection to many guarding all sensors and indirect feeds from heavy rainfall companies and, of course, the police. However, with time and groundwater prediction systems. A CTA can constraints being a significant factor in incident response, be automatic in these circumstances, giving vital the prompt and noisy arrival of several volunteers local warnings in even the most minor situations. It responding to a CTA would, in most cases, have the can assist with advising local volunteers to assist the required effect. vulnerable with a caution given further up the chain of command to district and regional councils. Author Indeed, even changing batteries in equipment and ADAM BERRY is Managing Director of Initsys Ltd essential maintenance is a task for suitably trained volunteers. This timely advice of the potential for and has been with the company since 2008. Initsys flooding allows the installation of household defence equipment, such as door barriers and the closing of is a CRJ Key Network Partner, see initsys.net vents. Or, using the CCTV element of the LRN, cameras can check that the automatic defences have operated. ■ Anti-social behaviour: An early deployment of the Local Resilience potential was to detect and deter speeding and theft in small villages in Leicestershire, UK. It achieved these targets by using CCTV cameras and unused upload bandwidth in volunteers’ homes. Cameras have reduced crime and stopped the community from being a haven for stolen vehicles, where they were parked waiting to be collected after the thefts. Recent changes have allowed the village to monitor cars that regularly speed through the town. Drivers are sent warning letters from the police and targeted if speed continues to be a problem. ■ CCTV and IoT: All CCTV systems are compatible Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 17

Taking action against extreme risks Phil Trendall addresses the salient points in a recent UK Government’s House of Lords Select Committee Report, echoing one witness’s suggestion that: “Resilience is an issue that never goes away, but it is easy to forget about when you are not in the middle of an emergency” C urrently, no authoritative institution other than the encourages the government to be more open about the House of Lords has tackled the vital subject of ‘Preparing risks facing the country. It also acknowledges the need for Extreme Risks: Building a Resilient Society’. The for responsibility to be taken by politicians, including by power of a Select Committee in the UK system lies in ministers, and the duty of Parliament to have oversight. the influence exerted by its work, especially when based on the careful collection of evidence. Nobody expects The Committee was surprised that the National all of a Select Committee’s recommendations to be Security Council sub-committee on Threats, adopted, but they can set the tone of further debate Hazards, Resilience and Contingencies had and draw attention to the issues. All such committees been disbanded and it recommended that it be are made up of politicians, but their strength lies in reinstated in an appropriate form (Para 70). the fact that their reports set party politics aside. This was not a review of the Civil Contingencies The breadth of the evidence taken is impressive; the Secretariat (CCS), but the report concludes that the Committee heard from 85 witnesses during 29 sessions task of co-ordinating government departments cannot and received around 100 written submissions. It was be achieved by encouragement alone. Some witnesses advised by Professor David Alexander, a leading academic suggested that there should be a new Civil Protection in the field, and all evidence is available on its website. Ministry, but instead the Committee recommends the Not many parliamentary reports include evidence from creation of an “arm’s length” non-departmental public novelists, but in an attempt to avoid a lack of imagination, body with wide-reaching functions, including the auditing the Committee convened a panel of first-rank writers of plans. This Office for Preparedness and Resilience to give their opinions on the big picture questions. (OPR) would be headed by a Chief Risk Officer (Para 79). The Committee welcomed the government’s intention The OPR would also be the national repository for to create a National Resilience Strategy, but the lessons identified and best practice. It would have access overall tone suggests that it remains to be convinced to the best expertise and academic research, encouraging that this will meet what it views as the UK’s needs. external challenge and harvesting specialist advice. Attempts at creating a centre for such things have never Temporary froth of outrage really been successful. Simply collecting reports and debriefs is not enough, therefore such an office would Overall, the report is very critical of the government, need to be dynamic, well-staffed and properly funded. although the criticisms are evidenced and not used as a political grandstand. Some would argue that the Those who work in the field will not be surprised to lack of wider media interest in the report is evidence note that the subject of funding was raised by several that a more strident approach is called for. An witnesses. The decline in funding – especially at the alternative view is that the Committee seeks to bring local level – was highlighted, as was the approach about significant change and is not interested in the of the Treasury, which was seen to disincentivise temporary froth of public and political outrage. spending on contingencies. Lord Ricketts suggested that: “They invest money in what is happening right A lot of evidence lent strength to the view that current now and they tend not to invest serious money in what risk assessment processes are inhibited by a culture might happen, but might not,” (Ricketts, Para 80). of unnecessary secrecy. Local agencies and Local Resilience Forums (LRFs) are not treated as trusted Lord Ricketts was talking about central government partners. While the need to protect sensitive information departments although the problem is found even is acknowledged, the Committee lamented the effects more acutely in local authorities, whose daily of ‘secrecy for secrecy’s sake’. This will resonate with financial challenges do not leave much room for their many local planners who have encountered a brick obligations under the Civil Contingencies Act (CCA). wall when trying to find out the information they need to do their jobs. More generally, the Committee There was a consensus of evidence that the current structures for risk assessment were inadequate and that the ‘risk appetite’ needs to be clarified. The short 18 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

Gary Waters | Ikon Images 19

termism that is an almost inevitable product of our political their own preparedness and needs,” (Shaw, Para 180). system was highlighted as a serious problem. Two witnesses The Committee was much taken by the evidence from summarised the issue: “The likelihood of any one of these major Sweden, where engaging with the public around risk is typified risks actually manifesting itself during the term of a government by a frank transparency that probably has deep cultural is low, so no government is incentivised to prepare for them: the roots. A senior official of the Swedish Civil Contingencies payoff is unlikely and there may be a concern that the public Agency described its approach: “There is a strong tradition perception of preparation for a risk that doesn’t manifest is of seeing people as subjects rather than objects, as resources a ‘waste of resources’,” (Spiegelhalter/Freeman, Para 73). and not care-needing entities,” (Kronhamn, Para 111). Worries about short term approaches were also discussed in the The last circulation to the British public, entitled Preparing context of the preparation of the National Security Risk Assessment for Emergencies: What You Need to Know, was published in (NSRA). The report recommends that the NSRA should be replaced 2004 and was itself something of a disaster. The Swedish with a National Security Risk and Resilience Assessment and document, If Crisis or War Comes (CRJ 14:2), was identified that the methodology should be changed. The model preferred as a model for the UK to follow. This document is widely by the Committee is that created by Ortwin Renn. Committee available in English and is recommended reading. members note, with some justification, that the language used For the most part, the Committee managed to resist the in the model would need to be made more accessible. For some temptation to investigate the response to the pandemic. However, time, the CCS has been considering ways of improving the risk it did endorse the findings of the House of Lords Constitution assessment process, so we should expect changes in the near future. Committee that emergency powers should be reviewed and Another recommendation that that this should be done before is not likely to place too great Not many parliamentary the public inquiry into the a burden on government is the pandemic response takes place. suggestion that the name of the reports include evidence from The subject of Exercise Cygnus CCS should be changed to the was touched upon – an exercise Resilience and Contingencies novelists, but in an attempt to based on the high risk posed Secretariat to reflect its avoid a lack of imagination, a by pandemic influenza. The expanded responsibilities. Committee was concerned that LRFs in England and Wales panel of writers was convened lessons from the exercise had not have been a success story. In been followed up. It quotes the most areas, they emerge from recommendation that a pandemic the pandemic with their reputation and role enhanced. However, ‘concept of operations’ should be developed and notes that such a the Committee noted that the non-statutory nature of LRFs, thing would have been most useful in the early stages of Covid-19. variations in their methods of operation and the poor level of Throughout the report, there are many references to the communication with central government are a problem. Witnesses need for greater training and exercising and for both activities suggested that the LRFs now have a greater response role than to be part of a wider process of developing skilled staff. The was originally envisaged and that the structures to support and Committee recognises that this is an expensive demand, but fund them are not sufficient. Recommendations about LRFs are unsurprisingly, it sees these activities as key factors in improving precise and include: “As part of the quinquennial review of the national resilience. Few people working in civil protection would CCA regulations, due to report by March 2022, the government disagree. The development of an emergency management should clarify the purpose and duties of the LRFs and should place profession within government would be an additional bonus. them on a statutory footing. If LRFs are to take a more active role Some of the recommendations in this report that were in the emergency response, the training required, and the possible least commented on concern the role of Parliament itself. The liabilities increased by this change should be addressed,” (Para 120). Committee recommends that there should be an annual When the report talks of liabilities, it might well refer debate on the NSRA and that a new joint select committee back to the question of clarity of status and role. How can should be established to oversee the subject (Para 267). Based a non-statutory committee made up of ‘sovereign’ bodies on its considerable combined expertise, it clearly understands realistically have liability for decisions made by its members? that things subject to scrutiny are more likely to be done. The Committee also wants clarity around the role of the voluntary Let’s hope this report is on the essential reading list of every sector and an improvement in the guidance that governs its minister. Action cannot wait. We do not know when next the relationship with responders designated in the CCA. The voluntary management of an extreme risk will be at the top of the national sector’s contribution to the pandemic response has been vital to agenda. We will surely not have to wait long. the UK nations’ wellbeing. It would be a shame and a waste if this didn’t result in permanent improvements in the framework References under which the public and voluntary sectors plan together. ■ House of Lords Select Committee on Risk Assessment and Risk Planning (2021): Lack of engagement with the public and businesses was a concern. Preparing for Extreme Risks: Building a Resilient Society, HL Paper 110, The Committee was sceptical that the national or local risk registers publications.parliament.uk; were an effective mechanism for communicating with the public. ■ House of Lords Constitution Select Committee (2021): Covid19: The Use and The fact that material for businesses on the gov.uk website was out of Scrutiny of Emergency Powers, HL Paper 15, publications.parliament.co.uk; date was probably seen as an important symptom of a wider malaise. ■ Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, MSB (2018): If Crisis or War Comes Citizens are, of course, the nation’s greatest resource. This was (English Edition), rib.msb.se/filer/pdf/28706.pdf recognised during WWII, but seems to be something that has been lost. One expert put it bluntly: “We cannot have a passive public who Author are waiting for everybody to come and save them,” (Shaw, Para 177). PHIL TRENDALL is Director at Scott Trendall Ltd, a civil He went on to describe the events of the last year as: “A protection consultancy and training provider. He is also a masterclass in communities supporting each other, managing Member of the CRJ’s Advisory Panel 20 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

governance The voices of resilience Jeannie Barr summarises key points arising from the UK Government’s call for evidence for its National Resilience Strategy, saying that resilience professionals still need to be placed at the forefront of crisis planning To paraphrase an old cliché, time and crisis wait for ● More standardisation and consistency across processes and tools no one. Even as Covid-19 rumbles on, requiring are needed for better preparation, mitigation and response to risks. the professional and personal attention of resilience professionals, other disasters and emergencies emerge, All are points that I’m sure the majority of resilience professionals which also need attention, action and to be planned for. would agree with. So far, so good. However, the proof of the pudding As resilience professionals, it is our business to be prepared for them. is in the eating. Come the spring, when we see the finished strategy, we will be able to judge properly whether the voices of resilience There were high hopes among the professional community when have truly been considered and heard. the UK Government issued a public Call for Evidence to contribute to the shaping of an updated National Resilience Strategy in July Author 2021. Resilience professionals welcomed the call, hoping that they would have the chance to demonstrate their experience and JEANNIE BARR is MEPS Acting Chair and Director for expertise in preparation for the next, inevitable crisis, despite the Professional Standards and Learning with the EPS, a CRJ Key government’s lack of engagement with them during Covid-19. Network Partner. Read the EPS Response to National Resilience Strategy Call for Evidence: the-eps.org Hundreds of individuals and organisations responded, aiming to contribute, share and help the country to be well-prepared. Grandfailure | 123rf EPS members penned an extensive response calling on the government to: “Utilise our expertise to co-develop frameworks and benchmarking tools which reflect reality and which are fit for purpose.” They highlighted the failure to learn from past incidents and called for: “A consistent, legislated, national approach,” to learning lessons. And much, much more. While the full strategy hasn’t yet been published – it’s expected in spring 2022 – the government has published its consultation outcome. The reaction so far from colleagues in the profession is that it seems to have fallen short of expectations and is even a bit underwhelming. Underwhelming? But let’s not lose too much hope. This is not the full strategy and the government pledges the responses that it has received have been: “Shared with policy teams.” We hope that they become an integral part of the strategy, influencing the overarching objectives of the supporting policies and include measures for accountability and a benchmark for standards at all levels.  So what are the key points and themes? In summary: ● More can be done to assess and communicate risk at national and local levels; ● Greater transparency and accessibility to risk information are needed; ● Everyone should have a part to play in improving the UK’s resilience; ● Support for a whole-of-society approach and active partnership from individuals, community and volunteer groups, businesses and academia; ● The US, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden and Japan were cited as examples from which the UK could learn about resilience models; ● Division of roles and responsibilities between central government and devolved administrations, local government and responders could be more tightly defined and have greater co-ordination; ● Critical national infrastructure resilience can be improved further through appropriate resilience standards; and Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 21

The moral compass: Which direction? In her article in CRJ 16:4, Beverley Griffiths identified the need for a living code of ethics for the developing profession of Emergency Management. Here, she explores ethical theories, underlining the dilemma of choice T he theory of ethics has been debated, researched these are precisely where the greatest resources may be and written about from the perspectives of many required in terms of building resilience or support in different disciplines, professions and organisations. emergency situations. Deontology involves the morality We do not have space here to reflect on the historical of an action based on a set of ethical rules; in other words, developments of ethics theory but it is, nevertheless, it can be described as duty-based ethics. However, this is worth noting a few of the traditional and different dispassionate of humanity because it can exclude others theories that have been identified as being useful and therefore presents a possible weakness were it to be in disaster and emergency management (EM). adopted by an organisation involved in EM and response. Ethics are a complex area of philosophy that the Virtue ethics are person rather than action- Ethics and Compliance Initiative (2021) defines based, focusing on individual virtues, so they miss as: “A study of right and wrong, used not as a wider community outlook. Virtue ethics are singular code, but in both professional behaviour often prevalent within the codes of professional and work through decision-making actions.” bodies, which focus on professional qualities, rather than those needed for doing the job. However, nothing is ever that simple. For generations, philosophers have argued about Intriguingly, one researcher has noted that the the complexities of obligations, values, principles and common attributes align closely to Maslow’s hierarchy choices. Simply put, this is how we decide the kind of of needs. While a useful consideration, it is one-sided, people we are, and the things we do or don’t do. As you as virtue ethics, being internal to self, fail to recognise read this article, the challenge for you is to reflect upon the external environment and pressures of actions and your own stance, to consider your values and moral decisions. This fact should not be overlooked, because as choices in life and in the different phases and situations important as it is for an emergency manager’s professional of EM. This internal reflection is necessary for building self, EM professionals serve communities and, as the profession so that it encompasses a wide and varied such, external attributes towards others are crucial. body of practitioners who serve the wider community. In philosophy, there are three dominant, Context-sensitive traditional systems of ethics: Consequentialism, or utilitarianism; deontology (duty); and virtue (values). All of this leads to the realisation that there is much Utilitarianism or consequentialism are often seen as two more to ethics, which are more open ended than parts. Consequentialism is based on the consequences of traditional silos. Ethics need to be more embodied actions taken. Within this we have egoism, where actions into the complexity of daily practice, and this requires are morally validated as having the greatest result for the more context-sensitive deliberation and judgement. individual; in other words, each person has the ultimate aim of ensuring their own welfare. Utilitarianism compels Although the traditional theories have a place and deliberation about the consequences of actions in order should not be overlooked, both society and the world to ensure the best for the maximum number of people have changed, leading to a search for ethical theories affected; it does, however, accept that bad things can occur. that support today’s individuals and society and the Deontology (duty) means complying with rules, complexities that they face. An important paradigm shift principles or duty that should be followed. Finally, in ethical theories is that of the social contract theory. unlike the other theories, virtue ethics revolve around We are moving from egocentric traditions towards those the personal choice of values and traits to live a moral that are more community-centric, with the accepted life and how these affect decisions and actions. belief of a compact between an individual and those More recently, research warns against the use of who govern, offering more support for work in the field. traditional theories, suggesting that they lack resolution for today’s diverse communities and technological Another factor is the non-prescriptive Ethics of advancements. For example, utilitarianism can undermine Care Framework, originally devised for the caring the welfare of marginalised people or communities, yet professions. This has four concepts designed for reflection, interdependence, relations, responsibility and context. The framework’s ethos is built around a web of relationships, rather than being autonomous, as is the case in other 22 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

governance frameworks, and this allows for code, both for the individual professional and, more Polygraphus | reflection on roles and responsibilities importantly, for the entire EM effort. Thus, the key 123rf within official relationships. issues of the relationship between those involved, be they individuals or multiple partners, and development Last, we have environmental of and endurance of the code, have to be reconciled. ethics, which have evolved to support a biocentric approach to the This is explored further through the science of worth of the environment. These social cognition focus, in order to comprehend the way are very much in line with the individuals cogitate regarding people and events, all understanding and consideration amid the endless flood of information that is essential to of the worth of the environment to adjusting to constantly fluctuating societal environments. human life, which is inbuilt into the definitions and scope of EM. This second article in the series has moved the subject forward from my initial thoughts on the need Previous work and traditional for a living code of ethics. We have explored the ethical theories have been mainly theories, old and new, with the dilemma of choice philosophical in nature, not taking in the direction to guide our decision-making. into account influencing factors such as individual behaviour or social Next, I hope to look at ethical decision-making in environment. So, there also needs emergency management, with further articles on: Moral to be a realisation of behavioural distress; ethical codes components; management; and ethics and how choice options, biases support for a code. and environments affect ethical ■ A full list of references and further reading are available upon request, decision-making. Frighteningly, email [email protected] evidence informs us of ethical blindness, bounded awareness and Author unethical behaviour. Social and cognitive psychology indicates that BEVERLEY GRIFFITHS is a Senior Lecturer in individuals look for information that supports their own views, thus Emergency Planning at the UK’s University of failing to see contradictions. This presents further challenges for ethical Wolverhampton, a CRJ Key Network Partner, and decision-making in EM. Encouraging an investigative mind-set supports she is a Member of the CRJ’s Advisory Panel everyday and unusual ethical dilemmas – these are situations, often complex and difficult, which question what is the right thing to do. It is useful to understand the differences of the ethical theories, but work in disaster ethics has indicated the usefulness of utilising ethical pluralism. What is certainly agreed upon by those who have studied ethics in disaster management, is that there is a need to bring all the theories – both new and traditional – to bear on the complexities of disaster and, therefore, EM. In peacetime, the notion of utilising ethical pluralism, allowing the idea of many theories is fine; however, in times of urgency when there is little time for debate, ethical pluralism may not be the best way forward. Allowing for the notion of many theories, even when they conflict with each other, is something that should be considered when developing an adaptable, flexible living code of ethics. Ethics should be openly debated, including their harmony and conflicting issues in understanding the complexity of the world and its challenges, using reliable methodology and research in reaching norms and values, crossing borders of country, professions, organisations, hierarchical levels and the moral imagination of individuals. Finding a tangible, ethical identity before the process is critical to moving the field of ethics into the EM profession. This entails consideration of ethical identity at individual, organisation and multi-levels, as well as the ethical identities in society. These then need to be considered as to how they affect – whether positively or negatively – the development of a living Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 23

The curse of the missed opportunity Roger Gomm questions whether we are doomed to repeat the quintessential mistakes after the Covid-19 pandemic – in other words, the error of failing to hold on to the lessons that are learnt as we go along Oivind Hovland | Ikon Images T he era after WWII is often viewed as the British scale, duration and impacts for most organisations, Government and civil service’s greatest missed stretching even the most polished and rehearsed opportunity. The government had corralled the nation’s business continuity plans. However, to avoid the curse best and varied talent for the war effort, including of the missed opportunity, we must now hold onto scientists, engineers, mechanics, linguists, cryptographers the lessons identified and these must include both the and historians – whoever was necessary. After victory, good and bad to allow us to plan for the future. it could have applied these specialist skills, expertise and knowledge to rebuild the country. Instead, they What are the lessons, both positive and negative? were encouraged to disperse. There was no formal In terms of the former, we should take heart from examination into how the state had performed during successes of the UK response to Covid in some key areas. the war. No one realised just how much government had The UK was early to invest in vaccine been boosted by the rapid infusion of external talent. research. Allowing results of clinical trials to be submitted on a rolling basis enabled it to be the There can be little doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic first Western country to approve a vaccine. The presented unprecedented challenges in terms of vaccine rollout – the fastest in its early stages of 24 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

covid-19 any large economy – drew on established local networks. billion. Since then, it has been allocated £15 billion more, totalling The furlough scheme that supported 11 million livelihoods £37 billion over two years. As reported by the Public Accounts Committee, despite the unimaginable resources thrown at this is another positive. At the scheme’s peak in May, 30 per cent project, Test and Trace cannot point to a measurable difference of the UK’s workforce was furloughed. To tackle the effects to the progress of the pandemic, and the promise upon which this of the pandemic on people’s jobs, businesses and livelihoods, huge expense was justified – ie avoiding another lockdown – has the government introduced one of the most generous and been broken, twice. The most important implication is that, in comprehensive packages of support in the world, including the hindsight, the most effective response would have been to combine Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, with the total value of all the Asia-Pacific approach – border restrictions, lockdowns and claims up to August 31 amounting to £37.5 billion. In addition, strenuous test-and-trace to suppress infection – and the Western managing to process the huge increase in the number of claims focus on swift vaccinations, once available. Most large economies for Universal Credit during the pandemic was a positive, and fell down on one side of this two-sided approach. For those like the the system performed remarkably well under pressure. UK, which fumbled the former, the cost in lives has been far higher. The ‘Everyone In’ campaign saw homeless people given shelter. I believe that the UK has strong capabilities in place to Councils were given £3.2 million in March 2020 to provide respond to most single, local and frequent risks, but they are not emergency shelter for homeless people, with many housed in always sufficient to respond to the complex, concurrent, low- hotels. This scheme was seen as being hugely successful, almost likelihood or geographically diverse risks. Concurrent risks ending rough sleeping overnight, as one expert told me. such as: Covid; health and social care; Brexit and the Northern After a disastrous start, the nationwide procurement and We need to have a broad management of personal protective equipment (PPE) and advice for view of the risk landscape, emergency responders and frontline staff gained momentum. across a series of interconnected factors Let’s turn to the bad or more negative aspects, starting with the failure of the UK’s initial response. As the rest of the world Ireland protocol; climate change and extreme weather events; grappled with how to respond to coronavirus, the UK’s bungled supply chain issues; and global instability, could create a efforts held a grim fascination for many other countries. A nation perfect storm. Are we prepared for the hard winter ahead? that is one of the world’s most mature democracies and which prides itself on the quality of its governance, ended up with A new resilience strategy should deliver a change in our one of the highest death tolls per capita of any large economy, approach to national resilience, encompassing a comprehensive its fumbling equalled perhaps only by the United States. and shared understanding of the risks we face, including the impacts they could have and our exposure to them. To One lesson here is the need to prepare for the right risks. Though make the right decisions we need to have a broad view of the this was not the fault of Boris Johnson’s Conservative Government, risk landscape, across a series of interconnected factors. but the legacy of previous administrations, the National Health Service (NHS) had been starved of resources such as ventilators and We need a greater focus on preventing risks from intensive care beds. The UK lacked supplies of protective clothing materialising, not just responding to them. We should invest in and effective test-and-trace protocols to contain an outbreak. preparations to improve our capacity to prevent, mitigate and recover. And to manage risks effectively, we need to balance Its pandemic planning failed to learn from SARS, MERS and investment and effort across the whole life cycle of risks. Ebola – particularly from the dangers of novel diseases spreading from animals – and was based too rigidly on the assumption that A genuine whole of society approach is therefore essential. the next pandemic would be influenza or something similar. We should energise and empower everyone who can make a contribution. To be truly resilient, all parts of society should play Falling prey to groupthink a role in building the UK’s resilience. Failing to work consistently well across national and local government and missing the value Poor situational awareness and decision-making also played their of expertise on the ground are not acceptable. We also need to fix part. Once the pandemic came, the government “followed the current weaknesses in how we gather, handle and present data. science” so unquestioningly that politicians and scientists fell prey to a form of groupthink – and the groupthink was fatalistic and Accountability and responsibilities should be clear; flawed. Mechanisms for offering scientific advice were insular, governments, local partners and the voluntary sector secretive and lacked external challenge. Above all, they took need to ensure that each contributor is able to participate not nearly enough account of approaches elsewhere, such as the through appropriate measures. Partnerships between most strenuous containment efforts by east Asian countries. government and its partners need to be strengthened. All but one of the 87 people who took part in at least one meeting It is worth remembering that Covid took a heavy toll on the of the Scientific Advisories Group for Emergencies (SAGE) were system, so some previously formed contingency plans may now be from UK institutions. Though other countries in Europe and less well exercised or understood. Staff will be tired; experienced North America initially adopted a similarly fatalistic approach, UK staff may retire or move on to other roles, and professional ministers accepted for too long the notion that the virus could not relationships with other agencies may need to be reinforced. be suppressed effectively, and the population would not tolerate a lengthy lockdown. In practice, this amounted to accepting that herd Author immunity, though not the official goal, was the inevitable outcome. ROGER GOMM QPM, is an advisor, trainer, consultant and an When the UK strategy did change dramatically and associate lecturer, Cabinet Office Emergency Planning belatedly towards accepting the need for a lockdown in College, UK. He is a Member of CRJ’s Advisory Panel late March, 2020, this was because of: “Domestic concerns that the NHS could be overwhelmed,” rather than a serious decision to follow emerging international best practice. Additionally, much has been said about the over-centralised, long-misfiring and hugely expensive test-and-trace programme. In May 2020, NHS Test and Trace was set up with a budget of £22 Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 25

A study of resilience in the face of crisis Jennifer Hesterman recently spent six weeks exploring Indonesia and was impressed with the proactive nature of the government’s actions, saying there are lessons to be learned for all of us T he Republic of Indonesia is in Southeast Asia and Oceania, not only a repository of my vaccine and Covid test between the Indian and Pacific oceans. It is the largest results, but an informative tool. A few weeks later, I country in the region; a 3,000-mile-long archipelago had to scan in before entering a hotel on another island. of 17,508 islands, of which approximately 6,000 are I was stunned to receive information on the hotel’s inhabited. The country’s population is 273 million. capacity, current occupancy and recent positive Covid As a middle-income nation and member of the G20, tests of staff and prior visitors (there were none). Indonesia is classified as a newly-industrialised country. At the first airport kiosk, vaccine and PCR test I landed at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport in paperwork from the US was inspected by medical the capital, Jakarta. The aeroplane taxied to the end of professionals who issued a barcode and scanned it into the international terminal to keep inbound passengers the app. Next, immigration inspected the visa paperwork separate from the rest of the airport. Inside was a row of and the lodging reservation, as inbound passengers can check-in kiosks. Prior to starting the in-processing, all only quarantine at government-approved hotels. I was passengers had to download the government’s Covid-19 escorted to an area for another PCR test, already paid tracking application to their smartphones. This was for by the hotel. An hour later, I was given a clean bill 26 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

covid-19 A motorcyclist of health; the hotel representative met me at the luggage Indonesia, Brunei and the southern Philippines. JI’s wearing a carousel and I was whisked away to quarantine. operatives trained in camps in Afghanistan with al- protective mask, Qaeda (AQ), and in the southern Philippines with passes a Covid-19 Isolation of inbound passengers reduces the the AQ and IS-aligned Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). awareness mural potential spread of the virus to others at the airport. on a wall, in A test on arrival confirms negative status. Visitors JI started attacks in 1999 and is responsible for a Jakarta, Indonesia, must quarantine at an approved hotel following series of lethal bombings targeting Western interests, September 2, government protocols. Quarantine not only controls including soft target attacks in 2002 against nightclubs 2020. The mural the spread, but is a way for hotels to make money in Bali, killing 202, and the 2003 car bombing of the reminds the public during a time when not many are travelling. JW Marriott hotel in Jakarta, killing 12. In May 2018, always to be three churches were bombed simultaneously by ISIS aware of Covid-19 We drove to a back entrance of the hotel. Prior to sympathisers in Surayaba, killing 15. More recently, entering through the gate, armed security looked inside on Easter Sunday, 2021, suicide bombers attacked Evan Praditya | and under the van with a mirror. I went through a the Catholic Cathedral in Makassar, injuring 20. INA Photo Agency metal detector, as did my bags. Then I was taken via the freight elevator to the 23rd floor where I was greeted US airports, as well as many abroad, are still very | Alamy by friendly hotel representatives and briefed on the vulnerable to vehicle-borne incendiary devices, suicide quarantine procedures. I signed a form stating that bombers and shooters at both departure and arrival I would not leave my hotel room unless there was an halls. Kerbs are usually right next to airport buildings, emergency and was escorted to my suite where I enjoyed where there are typically large panes of glass and crowds fast WiFi, laundry service and three gourmet meals of of vulnerable people, and there is no security screening my choosing each day, left on a table outside the door. prior to entering. This is despite airport attacks such as The morning of my departure, I was administered a in Glasgow, Brussels and Istanbul, as well as many foiled PCR test, which was negative, and I was free to travel. plots. There is continued resistance to push the security perimeter out and away from the building, despite working And what was my bill for three days of all- group and government recommendations. Also, airports inclusive luxury accommodation, airport were never meant to be entertainment destinations transfers and two PCR tests? Just $240. accessible to the public; at the least, restaurants and shops should not be located prior to the security checkpoint. Indonesia has handled the pandemic deftly. As CRJ went to press, it ranks very low in terms of deaths Relocating the capital per million citizens. Only 15 per cent of Indonesian citizens are vaccinated, yet during my visit, there Over 40 per cent of Jakarta is now below sea level and were weeks with zero new cases of the virus. studies forecast the entire city will sink by 2050: the land surface is sinking, while the sea level is rising. During all of 2020 and the first half of 2021, the When the Dutch built the city in the 1600s, they country barely experienced the pandemic, owing to divided it to segregate the population, building an closed borders. In June 2021, it reopened to international unequal piping system that excluded many Jakartans, flights; naturally, the virus arrived and started to forcing them to extract groundwater. This constant spread. The country immediately went back to a strict tapping of the water table is causing Jakarta to sink lockdown and ten-day quarantine for the few visitors between five and ten centimetres per year. Owing to allowed in. Once the numbers decreased, it reopened changing oceanic current patterns and a warmer sea with new safety protocols in place. Even with almost zero surface temperature, the sea has been rising at an cases, everyone still wore a mask without complaint. estimated five millimetres per year for decades. At the Soekarno-Hatta International Airport On January 18, 2022, the government voted to move departures hall for domestic flights, I observed robust the capital to a new administrative city on the island of physical security. There were at least 100 feet of standoff Borneo, 2,000 km north-east of Jakarta and across the protection between taxis, buses and cars at the kerb Java Sea. The plan will shift the capital in five stages, and the building entrance, with no direct avenue of the last ending in 2045. The new city, Nusantara, is not approach for vehicles. Security started at the entrance to without controversy, since it will displace a rainforest and the terminal, where all bags and people were screened. wildlife. The Dutch have returned to Jakarta to help with Armed police provided a strong, deterrent presence. If a $25 billion plan for a sea wall, a series of dykes, pumps a malicious actor was sizing up Jakarta airport, they and other fortifications. Engineers and experts from the would probably pass by and find an easier target. Netherlands are best positioned to help with this massive project; Rotterdam is 90 per cent below sea level and Four entrances to the terminal spread out the crowd Amsterdam is minus six feet, yet both cities are thriving. and expedited the security process. I had to show my flight reservation – no one enters without a ticket to fly. The Challenges related to the pandemic, climate change and next stop was to show my negative Covid test – required security are shared by every country. There are many best for all domestic flights and easily obtained at the airport. practices and solutions out there for us to harvest and apply at home – if we only take the trouble to look. The check-in area is spread out. There is no primary airline check-in counter with long queues, but 72 kiosks Author where flights are worked individually two hours prior to take-off, thus dispersing the crowd over a large area. DR JENNIFER HESTERMAN US Air Force (Ret), Indonesia is no stranger to terrorism, and security Vice President at Watermark Risk Management at soft targets like hotels and transportation centres reflects its pragmatic approach. Jemaah Islamiyah International, adviser at the Homeland Security ( JI) is an Indonesia-based terrorist network formed in the early 1990s to establish an Islamic state Training Institute, College of DuPage, USA and encompassing southern Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Member of the CRJ Advisory Panel Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 27

Leadership learning from Covid-19 What have we learned about crisis leadership during this global health emergency? Two areas really stand out, according to Regina Phelps and the skills involved require ‘HEART’ T he pandemic highlighted the need for Another challenge in a fast-moving medical crisis information – situational awareness is that information changes or may be prove to be – as perhaps never before. It also inaccurate over time. Science is imperfect and sometimes shone a light on a constellation of slow in the discovery phase, and it takes time before skills under the broad umbrella ‘everything’ is known. Medical discovery is iterative – the more you learn, the more different things you learn. of what we term ‘HEART’. Leaders must therefore be flexible and adjust plans as necessary. This can lead some sectors of the public to In a crisis, the first physiological response for everyone, think that leaders don’t know what they are doing and that they are changing their minds to fit the circumstance, including leaders, is that we revert to our reptilian brain, without understanding that new information and discoveries can change the response. How can new which filters all incoming sensory messages to determine information that is critical be communicated? whether something is dangerous or not and produces our When evaluating leadership in the pandemic, it turns out that the best leaders in the pandemic fight-or-flight reactions. This is helpful when being chased have had what is termed HEART: Humanity; evolution; action; regard; and timeliness. by a sabre-toothed tiger, but in a crisis it can lead to poor ■ Humanity: Leaders have practised empathy, humility and trust. When decision-making. How can the reptilian brain be calmed? the foe is one that cannot be seen – it could be everywhere or nowhere – With good, solid information – ie situational awareness. humanity is the number one skill for a leader. Successful leaders have Situational awareness is the ability to identify, been authentic, compassionate and humane. They are guided by process and comprehend the critical elements a strong ethical framework that informed their decision-making of information regarding an incident. Achieving and through that are able to build trust. They are leading situational awareness requires two activities: with their heart and their brain. Collect – observe, acquire and compile the One of the things that happened for many of us who information; and process – assess the information worked remotely is that we started to see our leaders not and orientate yourself to all the possible impacts. only as someone in charge, but as humans with their own Where can good, accurate and credible information families and personal struggles. How many Zoom meetings have It turns out that the best you been in when a baby was leaders in the pandemic crying in the background and the have had what is termed room behind a participant was a HEART: Humanity; mess? Suddenly everyone became evolution; action; human. Being real is one of the regard; and timeliness hallmarks of emotional intelligence – a critical skill for a successful leader. be found? This was one of the first leadership challenges ■ Evolution: Leaders evolved in when faced with a brand new disease, as well as lots of confusing and conflicting information. Medical science and research are usually conducted in private, and information is released after years of study and trials. In the pandemic, all that messy science was carried out in front of an anxious public, which then interpreted press releases and interviews into messages that fitted individual beliefs. The first rule, therefore, is that leaders must use credible, trusted sources and review and validate all information carefully. 28 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

covid-19 Maria | Adobe their thinking and practised the ‘power of the backups proved to be a critical management skill, Stock pivot’. This pivotal power was on full display as regularly rotating staff leaders so they did not burn thousands of organisations closed and sent their out. Leaders who took care of themselves and others workers home. Successful leaders were adaptive at by taking breaks and having their backups fill-in rather all levels and agility was key in their response. If it than ‘toughing it out’ performed better in the long-term. didn’t work at first, something else was tried. In any ■ Regard: Leaders demonstrated caring for others and crisis, the best leaders know not to fall in love with themselves. The pandemic has shown that we need and their ideas. It is critical to stay flexible, be ready to want empathy and caring from our leaders. The best change and respond as necessary, as well as to keep leaders support and value their people and themselves. moving the organisation and its people forward. We all need to be intact and in good mental health ■ Action: This involves having a plan of action, process at the end of this ordeal and that requires planning and team, both leading and making timely decisions. for the long game – how many times have you heard Organisations with a clear and defined crisis process, over the past two years that this is a marathon, not a plan and structure fared much better, especially in the sprint? We all want to be standing when this is over. beginning, as the world swirled in confusion and fear. Trained teams were able to stand up quickly because they How can we make this happen? knew their roles and responsibilities. There was support Start with yourself – lead by example and for intelligence gathering, which in turn facilitated more avoid burnout. Ensure that trusted alternatives timely decisions. For larger organisations, it was critical are informed and empowered to make decisions. to have a centralised decision-making authority for a Enhance access to employee assistance plan services consistent response. For organisations with multiple to care for your people better. The goal is for everyone to be whole at the end of pandemic. locations, it was imperative that authorities and ■ Timeliness: Leaders issued communications that responsibilities were granted to other sites were accurate, authentic and timely. When facing so local leaders could respond to an invisible foe, what do we want from our leaders? their situations. This required The answer is communication that is frequent and empowering team honest. A new virus makes it even more challenging members as leaders. – the science can change over time as more is The use of learnt. Speak with candour and frankness about the team position uncertainties that exist and don’t downplay the risk. Communication should acknowledge the situation and express concern and condolences when appropriate. Communicate repeatedly with all of your key stakeholders and make sure that this communication is timely… the world doesn’t tolerate a vacuum and the space will quickly be filled up by others – timely communications prevent someone else from owning your narrative. Critical questions There will be more variants and the pandemic will ebb and flow until the disease becomes endemic. Every new variant requires the world to answer three critical questions rapidly: Is the new variant more transmissible? Is it more infectious? Is it able to evade vaccines and other therapeutics? Again, leaders around the world must work to gain situational awareness and use all the HEART skills described in this article. I know we are tired; we want this to be over, but the virus is not done with us yet. Remember that public health measures – face coverings, distancing and ventilation – still work. Even if the vaccines and/or antivirals are less effective with any new variant, they will very likely prevent serious illness and death – so get vaccinated if you are not and get boosted if you are. Remember that we are not starting at zero – it is not March 2020 (even though it might feel that way). Be kind to yourself and others. And remember, this too will pass. Author REGINA PHELPS CEM is an internationally recognised thought leader in the areas of crisis management, pandemic and business continuity planning Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 29

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What have we learned? It may be tempting to draw a line under the Covid-19 pandemic as the world slowly returns to pre-pandemic life, but this would be a mistake for resilience professionals, says Chloe Demrovsky L ate last year, DRI International released two reports that deployed different means to identify key themes and lessons learned. One of the reports shared the results of a survey-based study to quantify the trends at global level. The other, which was produced jointly with CRJ Key Network Partner the National Preparedness Leadership Initiative (NPLI), McLittleStock | Adobe Stock showcased a focus group of industry leaders (see p32 for more details). The DRI Trends report aimed to obtain an understanding of the ongoing pandemic response given the development of effective vaccines, improved medication and a wider understanding of the spread of the virus. When asked about the best decision made by their organisation during the pandemic, remote work was the top reply (61.6 per cent of respondents). Crisis management was a distant second at 17.6 per cent, but still dominated the other responses of health and safety, public health crisis itself, not including government and healthcare for which public health was the top challenge. consistency of messaging and compliance with expert guidance. Top business interruption concerns included the closure of A badly organised return to work topped the worst national borders and disruption of domestic travel, as well as government-induced work restrictions and lockdowns. Much decision response at 19.9 per cent, followed by inappropriate of this was missed in the lessons from previous pandemics, which were overwhelmingly focused on health and safety, but decisions made by human resources at 17 per cent. should have taken a broader view. Response measures may need to change in some ways, but in others the playbook will Soft skills versus technical know-how remain the same, so companies should plan accordingly. At the start of 2022, shaping a new, hybrid workforce and culture When the movement of goods and people was severely is a major challenge and will be a top priority. It is important to restricted during lockdowns, business continuity demonstrated hear from leaders about how they are going about it and whether its value by identifying workarounds for critical processes. the experiences of the last two years are informing that approach. Business continuity professionals helped to keep businesses functioning by co-ordinating with technical players, such The DRI/NPLI report sought to uncover more of that as cybersecurity and supply chain management, in order to leadership perspective. It deployed a team of researchers address the pandemic’s cascading effects. The ability to do this to interview business continuity leaders from various relies on the right combination of technical understanding, industries and came away with a wealth of information, paired with the soft skills identified in the leadership report. including lessons learned that span critical sectors. The pandemic is a reminder that bringing vulnerability and The conclusions of this report are more about the soft compassion into the workplace can improve it and that there is value skills of resilience leaders than about technical know- in reflection. It is imperative to learn from these lessons and use them how. Even in a remote world, the ability to unite people to build a more resilient future. and drive results by working together is invaluable. Author What can be learned from these two reports? Clearly, business continuity must first and foremost be CHLOE DEMROVSKY is the President and Chief Executive about the wellbeing of people. Business continuity and human resources must work together closely, including joint strategies Officer of DRI International and a Member of CRJ’s Advisory to support employees and other stakeholders affected by a crisis. This is even truer during a prolonged disruption, but Panel. Chloe will be speaking at Risk-!n, May 19-20, 2022. See would also prove valuable in short-term responses. The DRI Trends report showed that, for most sectors, the p96 for more details pandemic response had more of a business impact than the Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 31

Covid-19: Leadership styles and outcomes Eric McNulty and Lyndon Bird share the findings of a joint study on multi-sector trends during the pandemic, revealing key insights for improving readiness and enhancing leadership qualities F or years, resilience professionals and academics have started to spread rapidly, the failure to apply earlier stressed the inevitability of an eventual global pandemic. lessons identified became apparent as organisations During this century alone, we have had several health across sectors struggled to respond and adapt. The emergencies that could have triggered such a crisis – situation also provided an extraordinary opportunity SARS (2002), H5N1 flu (2006), H1N1 flu (2009), MERS to observe what worked and what could be improved. (2015) and Ebola (2016). However, once these infections were brought under control, the inevitable call for Two organisations, the National Preparedness lessons to be learned was often not heeded, or at least Leadership Initiative based at Harvard University not beyond the direct medical treatments discovered. (NPLI) and New York-based Disaster Recovery The original infection that became named Covid-19 Institute (DRI), monitored the situation individually probably appeared in Wuhan, Hubei province, China throughout 2020 and 2021. They agreed to collaborate in late October 2019. The first case in the US was to identify the decisions and actions that worked well Siberianart | 123rf confirmed by the CDC on January 21, 2020. Once it across all sectors and those found to be less effective. This article covers the period up to the end 32 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

resilience of July 2021. At that point, in the US alone, more than 37 understood the emotional stress that many of their staff were under million cases had resulted in more than 600,000 deaths. and recognised that decisions had to factor in the effect not only on worker availability, but also on engagement and resilience. This was The research team suspected that there were lessons summed up by one interviewee: “Sometimes, as a large corporation, common to all sectors to be learned that would add value we drift away from people and we focus on profits, R&D and to preparedness against future crises. Executives from nine technology. The pandemic has been an exceptional reminder of major private sector US-based organisations were interviewed how critical people are. It has given the executive leadership a in 90-minute sessions, hailing from the aviation, energy, new focus – if you look after your people, they look after you.” higher education, healthcare, manufacturing, retail and technology sectors. The study concentrated on the US, to Another, pithier point was: “If ever there was a time give consistency and exclude national differences in disease to walk the talk, this was it – and we did it.” patterns, political decisions and medical capabilities. Future preparedness will benefit if such secondary and The meta-leadership framework pioneered by NPLI helped tertiary considerations – from social support to technology frame the analysis of the interviews. Meta-leaders often operate procurement – are addressed in detail in planning scenarios. beyond the formal boundaries set by organisational structures and job specifications. Such leaders try to influence change Flexible mindset beyond their levels of authority; they take a holistic view of challenges, linking and using wider connectivity techniques However, no incident ever unfolds exactly as expected and no internally and externally. Meta-leadership is a practical way of plan can cover every contingency. A flexible mindset is probably managing complex, multifaceted crisis situations. In a pandemic, the attribute that marks out appropriate leadership in a crisis the ability to inspire a wide range of people – all with different context. The ability to understand and use existing protocols is priorities, skills, attitudes and personal attributes – is crucial. important, but the need to pivot as circumstances change is vital. Initially, there was little known about the SARS-COV-2 virus The meta-leadership framework has three dimensions to or how it spread. Naturally, this caused concern and some degree help leaders focus: The situation; the person; and connectivity. of panic among the public. The US Government, like others, Where there were some perceived weaknesses, they were often mandated strong restrictions to try to stem increasing cases and in internal communication processes found to be too slow or too rising death toll. It soon became obvious that the pandemic was inconsistent to create situational clarity and foster the robust not just a public health crisis. The measures created other problems, connectivity necessary to achieve synchrony between different resulting in business and school closures, restrictions on mass transit units of an organisation and to influence external stakeholders. and severe limitations on personal freedom. Significant reductions in income, an immediate rise in unemployment and virtual shutdown A pandemic response of this magnitude also required new of much of the manufacturing, services and transportation ways of flattening the organisation to aid faster decision- sectors were unmistakable evidence of the economic damage. making and improve staff communications. These findings are a prompt for business continuity professionals to work hand- The US was also severely affected by social unrest following the in-hand with their corporate communications colleagues for killing of George Floyd and record numbers of tropical storms, internal as well as external messaging and executive visibility. hurricanes and wildfires. The Presidential campaign added to the challenges – with the pandemic response itself becoming a There is nothing positive about living through a major pandemic. highly polarised political issue. General acceptance of information However, there are certainly many learning opportunities from provided by government agencies was constantly disputed online. which we can all benefit. Many firms will partially revert to what were previously normal operations, although we believe These multiple factors, sometimes involving overlapping that some changes worked so well that they will become crises to be managed concurrently, caused a unique set of accepted practice. Obviously, the switches towards more home- challenges needing innovative solutions from crisis leaders. working, online meetings and less business travel seem likely to continue, having been accelerated by the pandemic. Although responses obviously varied, the researchers identified a common theme that senior executive leaders had generally We believe the long-lasting change will be in the performed well. It seemed that the enormity and universality of appreciation that employee wellbeing – including mental the threat focused minds on what really mattered – and that was health – is a key component of business success. clearly people, not just profits. Many testimonies to this were noted across all sectors. A few examples included: “Our initial NPLI and DRI will include insights from the research in teaching concerns were for our associates, their families and everyone’s programmes and publications. The authors appreciate the co- safety,” and: “Our priorities were clear, protecting the health of operation provided by interviewees and their organisations. We hope our employees by limiting their exposure to infection – business that our findings, which are available as full reports, will stimulate continuity came very much second,” as well as: “Our CEO stated the integration of these insights into business continuity and disaster unequivocally that we would do what was necessary to protect our response plans and protocols. people – I don’t care what it costs – we must do the right thing.” Authors It would be useful to include the need for such people- first pivots into future planning and exercising. ERIC J MCNULTY is Associate Director and Programme Providing wide-scale support is easier said than done, and Faculty at the NPLI at Harvard’s Kennedy School of many things that had to be accomplished were new to companies. Help was needed financially, socially and medically. Most of the Government. McNulty also works with the Programme for companies interviewed provided many benefits that would not be included in any formal crisis plan. A good example was offering free Health Care Negotiation and Conflict Resolution at the infant care for those affected by school and nursery closures. It was clear that the best performing organisations quickly understood that Harvard Chan School. He is a Member of CRJ’s Advisory Panel they had to address secondary and even tertiary considerations to support employees. Those that succeeded best were the ones that Harvard NPLI is a CRJ Key Network Partner, npli.sph.harvard.edu LYNDON BIRD is Chief Knowledge Officer for Disaster Recovery Institute (DRI) International and chair of DRI’s Future Vision Committee, as well as being a Member of CRJ’s Advisory Panel. For more information, visit drii.org ■ The full report is titled Covid-19: An Analysis of Leadership Styles and Outcomes: Multi-sector trends from January 2019 through August 2021 Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 33

How to strengthen an organisation’s operational health Alexandra Hoffmann and Rob van den Eijnden explain how organisations can aim for good operational health via a structured and holistic approach The Covid-19 pandemic has uncovered the Resilience crisis management sector’s systemic and principles help complex vulnerabilities and the necessity to to strengthen the approach disruptive events from a broader bridges among perspective. The typical, siloed approach the stakeholders is no longer acceptable. Indeed, has it ever been? and build a culture of resilience across the entire If an organisation is operationally healthy before a disruptive organisation. No single team event occurs, it will recover. The use of resilience principles should own the process entirely. represents a critical differentiator as it fosters an organisation’s To that end, private organisations operational health and can help it thrive beyond recovery.  can draw from an article written in the Annual Review of Environment and Resources When implemented purposefully, a comprehensive and structured by the Stockholm Resilience Centre in 2012, which identified approach nurtures stakeholders’ relationships, builds bridges among several resilience principles: Manage connectivity; maintain them to manage operational risks better, leverages tangible and diversity and redundancy; manage data and feedback; foster intangible capabilities, and it can help to grow resilience as a culture. complex adaptive systems understanding and thinking; encourage learning and experimentation; and broaden participation. Even if Maintaining health these principles cannot be viewed as ‘universally beneficial’, they resonate well with the industry’s ongoing discussions and shifts.  An organisation’s operational health can be defined as the condition or quality of an organisation exhibiting the adequate functioning Philips’ journey towards operational health provides us of its parts in a given situation. Each part of an organisation with an excellent real-life example. The company has been contributes to creating the value delivered to its customers. This working incrementally towards this goal through an iterative is true for services and finished goods companies. Just as with the process since 2016. It became tangible with the launch of the human body, maintaining good health can help to mitigate impact Philips Resilience Platform in 2019. Its objective has been and damage to each system and the entire body as threats arise. clear and straightforward from the start: To improve the decision-making process throughout the company, during a If used appropriately, business continuity, risk management and disruptive event or any other critical strategic initiative. crisis management practices are some of the tools that can be used to structure an organisation’s approach. Today, more than ever, it To achieve that goal, the organisation focused on becoming has become apparent that these practices need to be combined with resilience principles to foster a holistic and systemic approach. 34 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

resilience data-driven. To this end, the operational resilience to take care of themselves first. Organisations and team (ORT) implemented three core tactics: Collecting leaders must provide them with the right capabilities. all operational risks at each of their critical locations; To move towards a culture of resilience, each of the centralising the data; and offering the possibility to internal stakeholders must then be given the tools to consult it at all times. The rule of thumb is that the data grow their capabilities. One of our clients recently must be reliable, real-time and relevant (the three Rs). stated that we should not make our stakeholders Concerning the latter, collecting the relevant become ‘resilient’. They should become ‘self-reliant’. operational risks is right at the core of preparing a Plans, data, management systems and monitoring tools critical location for a disruptive event, understanding embedded in the daily management principles allow the how to improve its risk profile and determining organisation to track and trace its capacity easily, in order what interdependencies exist with other parts to respond to – and recover from – potentially disruptive of the organisation and other stakeholders. events and minimise the impact on its components. These All system parts connect to share relevant information are all part of its operational health. Tools to foster and leverage their data to grow and optimise the human collaboration and interactions, engage better with operational health of the entire organisation and, more their stakeholders, take care of themselves as resilience specifically, the supply chain. For example, the ORT managers and leaders and measure the effect of our uses the insurance risk actions on stakeholders are as team data (maximum loss Because tangible critical, if not more so. They or identified risks), and the provide the type of relevant insurance risk team uses the information needed for an organisation to have a holistic elements seemORT data (essential products and dependent suppliers). straightforward to approach and perspective This wide variety of data measure and provide an on its decisions and actions. allows the organisation to Corporate culture is run relevant data analytics immediate data point, typically defined as the to support the decision- beliefs and behaviours making process before, we tend to give up on that determine how an during and after a disruptive the less tangible organisation’s employees event. This helps build interact with each other. bridges among stakeholders Gathering information to manage operational is useful when it is used to risks better and to create redundancies to mitigate foster those interactions and build bridges – as opposed the impact of potentially disruptive events.  to controlling and auditing – between stakeholders A data-driven organisation will be efficient when so that they become aware of their interdependencies the three Rs are fulfilled. However, there are some and find common ground to move forward and human pitfalls. By simplifying, we might focus only on thrive, no matter what. It all comes back to an data that is straightforward to collect, that is tangible, organisation’s intention for itself and its stakeholders. for example plans, tools and training practices. Beyond being purposeful, this pursuit for information We like to think of the resilience principles as two-sided, and data to support an organisation’s operational health like coins. For instance, we can manage connectivity should not inhibit leaders’ courage to make decisions in through tangible actions and steps, and through less times of deep uncertainty and complexity. No tool will tangible actions, like a growth mindset, strong emotional substitute for human beings’ trained capabilities. intelligence and communication skills. Going back ■ This paper is based on the authors’ forthcoming presentation at Risk-!n, to our analogy, to stay healthy as human beings we which takes place in Zürich, Switzerland in May. See p96 for further Rolffimages | focus on tangible elements, such as practising sports details 123rf twice a week, taking vitamins daily, or making sure we get the appropriate number of hours of sleep. References In organisations, we also address the less tangible ■ Biggs R, Schlüter M, Biggs D, Bohensky EL, Burnsilver S, Cundill elements, such as working on communication skills to G, Dakos V, Daw T, Evans L, Kotschy K, Leitch A, Meek C, Quinlan foster smooth relationships with others, collaborating A, Raudsepp-Hearne C, Robards M, Schoon ML, Schultz L & West and helping and others, or managing our stress levels. PC (2012): Towards principles for enhancing the resilience of Because tangible elements seem straightforward to ecosystem services, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, measure and provide an immediate data point, we 37: 421-448; may tend to give up on the less tangible elements. ■ Hazan E, Smit S, Woetzel J, Cvetanovski B, Krishnan M, Gregg B, According to a discussion paper written by McKinsey & Perrey J & Hjartar K (2021): Getting tangible about intangibles: The Company in June 2021, top performers across industries future of growth and productivity? McKinsey Global Institute. invest 2.6 times more in intangibles than low performers. McKinsey describes these intangibles as human Authors capital, intellectual property, research, technology and ALEXANDRA HOFFMANN is the CEO of Crisis Ally, software. More and more companies are now investing helping crisis leaders and their teams build the right heavily in their human capital. This is good news. capabilities to thrive through crises Risk management, security, and resilience teams are ROB VAN DEN EIJNDEN FBCI CISA CRISC is also embracing this effort. If we want these teams to Global Head Business Continuity & Resilience at serve the internal stakeholders accordingly, they need Royal Philips Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 35

The value of mobility Barbara Flügge explains how brand resilience and organisational growth can be enhanced in an ever-changing and disruptive world E very entrepreneur has a growth mindset. Growth is the and then take the analytical result to move ahead. With optimal result of having made the right decisions, at the transition from human to mechanical computerisation, the right time, in the right place. However, external the digital move complements physical and mental actions. and internal risks disturb the winning formula that entrepreneurs desperately wish, work and worry for. Acting physically, mentally and digitally in a coherent manner involves a holistic effort. Organisations span What makes the formula work? Are we clear about regions and continents; cultural diversity and preparedness the variables, namely decision-making, timing and with regard to interpreting incidents before they turn into place? Or does the formula lack the necessary reality risks require a transformative mindset by managers so checks under the headlights of the pandemic? that staff can independently inform, analyse and decide. Leaders then act in their capacity of assembling the big The list of risks that can harm growth strategies and picture before and after, and act in line with their staff. established cornerstones is long. Around 17 risk types have been classified as having the potential not only to harm, This chain of action analyses the root cause in a but to destroy a business; terror attacks, financial crises retrospective manner. The term retrospective refers to and political and geopolitical conflicts are clearly risks any timespan between risk occurrence and risk detection: that could destroy businesses in any industry. Businesses this could be milliseconds, ten minutes, or 100 days. in a geopolitical market with increased risk exposure Actors turn into resilience scouts, moving along physical, to war and resource scarcity are also under threat. cognitive and digital occurrences, and they transform up to the point of bouncing back – with the capacity When organisations are asked whether they are resilient enough, the answers differ, according to the industry, geography and inter-organisational systems setup. Many rely on risk and change management to calculate the response time of their operations team. This is the time needed to adapt a system and organisational needs to adjust supply chain setups, as well as the response time to push for innovative, yet disruptive moves. A servitised product itself would diminish operational costs by 26 per cent. Imagine that your organisation is resilient enough not to be exposed to all risks; even better, it is foreseeing the risk, predicting its impact and preparing countermeasures before it occurs. If your organisation is resilient, operational responsiveness increases. Experts from internal and external stakeholders work hand-in-hand, forming a reliable team that acts according to ‘form follows function’ and deploys physical and digital means that serve the purpose of their business. Resilience would be the common denominator for inter-organisational collaboration and risk aversion. It becomes a signature trait of successful organisations, mirroring how they are inventing, selling and serving. Luthans, Vogelgesang and Lester refer to resilience as: “The capacity of an individual to respond and even prosper from negative or positive stressful circumstances.” The OECD puts resilience into an ecosystems context: “Resilience is about addressing the root causes of crises, while strengthening the capacities and resources of a system in order to cope with risks, stresses and shocks.” Bouncing back and building capacity resonate within both of these definitions. Crises place a distinctive weight on organisational and individual situations. The resilient mindset is apparent in how willing an entity is to step back, identify the root cause 36 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

resilience Dmitryguzhanin of a resilient mind – to achieve acceptable results. In 2018, before the pandemic, we started investigating | 123rf Risk management strategy handbooks, tools and the element of resilience. But other signs were so apparent that we revisited our roles as strategy advisors, mobility methods have been developed to calculate the probability makers and digitisation leads for IoT projects. We turned of a blackout or the cost of climate change. The political our focus towards the capacity of people, products and mind debates about taxonomies and who is who, organisations to be physically, digitally and mentally whereas the insurer’s mind pictures the protection gap mobile. We worked with 25 SMEs, corporations and universe, so that in an incident we will be protected. freelancers, as well as experts from diverse industries, and asked what the essence of organisational resilience is about. Zettabyte era The following questions help to frame the scope of The financial crisis and the pandemic both emerged any Mobility Moves Minds project. First, why do some over months and years and have demonstrated in the executives so consistently prove themselves in a crisis and most harmful way that not all preparedness efforts were others do not? Second, why does one company grow well working. Perhaps this preparedness was carried out in and solidly, but another gets bogged down in acquisitions, the wrong way. Maybe the tools are too sophisticated, projects and innovation prototypes, with no visible added or there is a lack of skills to read the signs and data. value or scalable offerings? Third, do technologies and digitalisation contribute to a company’s resilience? The zettabyte era is advancing; huge amounts of data are being produced in the form of text messages, An organisation seeking resilience might encounter streaming, notifications, dashboards, form submissions resistance because of dominant online and onsite and alerts. In 2020, humanity produced about 1.7 MB retail and production gorillas (such as Amazon and of data every second. With any new app, the volume Alibaba), vanishing city centres and shopping malls, the of data rises. How will we expand our capacity to digital divide, the social divide among staff members interpret the data? If we are not the ones who control with the absurdity of rising living costs, and the trade the data processing, others must. How can we read divide. The latter derives from outsourcing core parts the signs behind the interpretation and transform it of a product to offshore geographies to cut costs, people into a decision that meets our needs in time and place? and expertise. Contrary to ripple effects, diversifying Some think we should leave it to artificial intelligence dependencies would help to diminish their risks. (AI) to help us steer our wheel of growth. AI is already using GPS systems, and the GPS rulebook that relies We know from our own trajectory that signs of on human input, to help it develop its own reasoning. incidents rang a warning bell, but were often overlooked by managers, informal systems and KPI-driven performance remuneration. Our interest moves the transformation potential from neglecting sounds of resignation and resistance towards the ability to build sovereignty among actors, internally and externally. Mobility Moves Minds driven organisations have the capacity to respond and even prosper in stressful circumstances, benefiting from the resilience of their staff, organisational setup and resilient products. At this year’s Risk-!n conference, we will be introducing the seven pillars and seven signs of how the growth formula of decision-making, timing and place will work in an ever changing and disruptive world. In the meantime, please take part in the free survey about brand resilience (see below) and the results will be shared at the conference this May. ■ See p96 for more details on Risk-!n References ■ Survey: Brand Resilience – Research Question: How resilient is your favourite brand? form.jotform.com/212565887694373 ■ Luthans F, Vogelgesang G & Lester P (2006): Developing the Psychological Capital of Resiliency, Nebraska, USA: Management Department Faculty Publications, p8; ■ Risk and Resilience: What is resilience and how to operationalise it? oecd.org; ■ Bulao J (2022): How much data is created every day? techjury.net; ■ Flügge B (2021): Mobility Moves Minds – build and grow again as business, English ISBN 978-1925452358, Deutsch ISBN 979- 8455138058. Author DR BARBARA FLÜGGE is a Business Growth Expert helping businesses and products grow into service companies through mobility moves minds, digital and resilient transformation Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 37

Disasters are the new business as usual Avnesh Ratnanesan and Derrick Tin contend that disasters are fast becoming the new normal or business as usual (BAU) in the corporate world and suggest ways that future preparedness might be enhanced W e categorised the pandemic as a major global disaster that has heightened global society’s sensitivities on the RawPixel.com | Adobe Stock need for better preparedness, both now and into the future. In Australia, the pandemic was preceded by major fires and floods, both of which were significant disasters. Compounded by the underlying trends of climate change, we can only expect more to come. So, what is the best approach to guide organisational strategy through the next uncertain phase of the pandemic, especially not knowing if we are in recovery or resurgence from a new variant? In the initial months of the pandemic, most organisations and societies took a rapid, reactive approach. Initial stances of border restrictions, lockdowns, widespread testing and quarantine facilities were immediate public health measures used to ‘flatten the curve’ and mitigate some of the healthcare effects of the pandemic. Organisations looked to state and federal governments for guidance, particularly in areas that they were unfamiliar with. Further exacerbating the situation were the human elements of fear, frustration, anger and isolation that so many were experiencing at the time. Healthcare professionals, who we relied on as sources of guidance, had to worry about their own health and their ability to keep themselves and their families safe, while tending to the care and treatment of the public. Many organisational leaders also learnt quickly that they could not depend on governments alone to provide absolute clarity on how to manage their emergency preparedness and response initiatives. Indeed, many larger, well-resourced organisations went on to hire disaster preparedness and infection control consultants or developed the capability in-house to mitigate the impact on business or service disruption. CEOs, CFOs, leaders of human resources and operations divisions were reassigned as ad hoc incident commanders and were often thrust into these roles with little initial training. They were also forced to use tools that were not fit for purpose to audit their emergency preparedness. Hospitals and health systems were more fortunate as the exceptions, thanks to in-house expertise in the form of infection control experts and epidemiologists to guide their response management. At a business level, supply chain disruption also continues, along with a sweeping mental health epidemic that is anticipated to last the next few years. Studies have shown the impact of job losses alone can affect the mental health of men for longer periods of time 38 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

resilience when compared with the loss of a loved one. While vaccination strategies have provided countries with a way out of the mentally debilitating effects of restrictive lockdowns, the rate of mutation of viral strains and the need for booster shots just months after the initial double dose, raises questions as to their long-term effectiveness. The post hoc damage assessment continues as we enter a period of publication of more elaborate and comprehensive after-action reviews. These government and industry reports are providing deeper insight into where opportunities exist for future improvement in a more holistic and strategic manner. While Diagram 1 there are many opportunities for improving the effectiveness of clinical therapies, one recent review by the Auditor-General’s Office on Underpinning this paradigm is also how leaders can transform risk mitigation strategies into opportunities for the state government agencies in Victoria, Australia, identified growth and improvement, and even perhaps gain a competitive advantage in markets in a structured fashion. Most diagrams significant waste in PPE and need for better supply chain and literature in emergency management look downwards at the cascade of activities of incident response teams, rather management and procurement procedures during a crisis. than look up at how they integrate into operational BAU.  Future preparedness requires data, sound expertise and The digital age is likely to ensure that the role of emergency response technology and preparedness systems will grow in improved guidance – either from governments or self-organising importance. Risk management solutions, while providing more accurate data on risk gaps to managers and frontline teams, teams – and dynamic feedback-loop mechanisms. It is also clear have largely fallen short in providing adequate decision-making support. This need is particularly acute, especially as the science that technology will play a large part in these self-managing on Covid-19 exploded in 2020 with over 200,000 coronavirus- related journal articles and preprints. This resulted in multiple systems to enable future optimisation of emergency management ‘sources of truth’ for organisations to contend with. It is likely that this trend will continue as future disasters emerge and society processes to make them simpler, safer and more efficient. In the becomes increasingly polarised by multiple confusing information channels, including social media platforms. Organisational and response to disasters, time is of the essence, and any solution that emergency management leaders will have to make strategic decisions on the key sources of truth that will be relied upon, can improve response speed and efficiency could save lives. and how they will be appropriately funnelled to managers and frontline staff in an expeditious, but comprehensive manner. Helicopter view Organisations have learnt that they cannot rely on one or two As such, how do organisations avoid being caught unprepared again in-house experts alone to maintain their mental repository of in the future? And how can forward thinking leaders of business, knowledge on disaster management processes. More distributed and government and healthcare institutions take a helicopter view in decentralised models of emergency preparedness are being explored, times of distress to truly appreciate the breadth and duration of although how this is managed in the context of high employee the problem, and make more meaningful decisions during crises? turnover and knowledge retention within incident command teams remains a key question for forward thinking leaders in the field. It is clear that organisations need to be able to manage infectious disease outbreaks like we manage fires. Leaders References require a preventative mindset that incorporates comprehensive safety and preparedness plans, procedures and infrastructure ■ Rath T, Harter J (2010): Wellbeing: The Five Essential Elements, Gallup in place. This may include frequent scenario planning and Press; drills as needed, or as embedded into public health policy. ■ Victorian Auditor General’s Office (VAGO) (2021): Management of spending in response to COVID-19, audit.vic.gov.au; Indeed, we have done a lot of work leading strategic ■ Else H (2020): How a torrent of COVID science changed research planning and deployment over the last decade, including publishing – in seven charts, nature.com supporting many large complex organisations, such as Pfizer, in Australia. We have also been involved in leading large- Author scale continuous improvement and change management initiatives. However, experienced executives and management DR AVNESH RATNANESAN is the CEO of Energesse and an professionals are acutely aware that theory can be very different from the practical approaches that occur on the ground.  international thought leader in health, safety and disaster risk It is the quality of the interrelationship in many organisations, management systems between emergency preparedness activities throughout the pandemic as well as corporate strategy and BAU activities that we DR DERRICK TIN is a Senior Fellow in Disaster Medicine at found very interesting – a conundrum, in fact. This thinking has evolved through many interviews with CEOs of organisations who Harvard Medical School and Co-Chair of the Counter are trying to reconfigure how to implement various scenarios in a pandemic recovery world. Diagram 1 is a highly simplified Terrorism Medicine Specialist group at WADEM depiction of the interrelationship of organisational plans and their pandemic response. There is a necessity amid the chaos of crisis response to see the wood for the trees and take a bird’s-eye view to assess all the complexities of actual emergency management operational activities in tandem with the usual machinations of corporate strategy development and implementation. Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 39

Audacious goals, remarkable results In order to understand how best to make decisions in modern crises, there is a surprising amount that we can learn by looking at how leaders made decisions over 100 years ago. Brad Borkan investigates C risis response, management and mitigation all have a statesman. Three people. Three professions. Three common component: decision-making. While crises now different nations. Despite these differences, what we have a global dimension and responses in the 21st Century discovered was that when faced with crises, they can involve a myriad of technology, the core element of overcame them with surprisingly similar mindsets. human decision-making has not evolved as quickly. Also, in studying their accomplishments and their In researching the book, Audacious Goals, Remarkable decision-making processes, David and I discovered Results, my co-author David Hirzel and I discovered a way of approaching large-scale problems, which three extraordinary historical people who had will be revealed later in this article. But before we a profound influence on the geophysical world get to that, who were these three people, what did we live in today. One was a Norwegian explorer; they do, and what can we learn from them? one was a British engineer (perhaps the greatest engineer who ever lived); and one was an American The explorer was Roald Amundsen. He was the first person to sail a ship through the Northwest Passage 40

resilience Grandfailure | – the sea-route connecting Europe to Asia sought for knew the American west in detail and the value of Adobe Stock over 400 years – across the ice-laden waters above protecting vast tracts, such as the Grand Canyon, which northern Canada. Amundsen was also first to reach the big business so desired for mining and development. South Pole. He faced numerous risks on his expeditions, including blizzards, frostbite and scurvy, and at one Second, to Amundsen, Brunel and Roosevelt, point his ship caught fire and nearly exploded. physical, political and financial risks were all part of the process. Amundsen’s expeditions were potentially The engineer was Isambard Kingdom Brunel – a financially ruinous. Brunel was nearly drowned twice household name in the UK, but totally unknown in in tunnel floods. Politics in Roosevelt’s day was as America and elsewhere. Brunel was key to the building rough as it is today, and the press was equally brutal. of the first tunnel under a flowing river in the 1820s. Hampered by extremely hazardous working conditions, Third, they were each exceptionally good at floods and serious injuries, the techniques used to reassembling and combining. Amundsen wasn’t the first construct this tunnel have been used to build every bored to attempt to get to the South Pole. Ernest Shackleton tunnel built since then. Brunel also pioneered the modern had tried before him. Brunel didn’t build the first railway, railway, designing and building the Great Western this was achieved by Richard Trevithick. Roosevelt didn’t Railway, a multi-year endeavour filled with setbacks pioneer building the Panama Canal, the French did. and obstacles, including Brunel nearly dying when a locomotive was being moved from a barge to the tracks. But what Amundsen, Brunel and Roosevelt all had in common was looking at what had gone before and The statesman was Theodore Roosevelt (who actually learning from it. They thought about how it could be abhorred the nickname Teddy). Roosevelt was the improved upon – made safer, quicker, better. Every driving force behind the US national parks and the previous assumption made by their predecessors was construction of the Panama Canal. Though the risks re-thought. Examples include Amundsen’s detailed to Roosevelt may have been more political than life- look at polar clothing and snow goggles. Brunel studied threatening, it is worth noting that while campaigning railway track widths, track beds, locomotive and carriage later in life, a gunman shot him in the chest as he was and station design, as well as bridges, tunnels and leaving a hotel to make a speech. The bullet, having viaducts, to find better approaches. After the disastrous been slowed by his metal glasses case and the 50-page early start of the Panama Canal by the Americans, speech in his breast pocket, was still lodged in his chest Roosevelt accepted that a completely new approach was when he decided he would continue with what he had needed to tackle yellow fever, which was killing canal planned to do. With blood still seeping into his shirt, he workers by the thousands, and that the plan for a canal gave an 84-minute talk, telling his audience it would without locks would need to be scrapped in favour of take more than a bullet to stop a bull moose (he was a lock-based plan, building locks three times larger running for the US Presidency, in the Bull Moose Party). than had ever been achieved anywhere in the world. Mastering the details There are many lessons to be learned from these visionaries that can be brought to bear in crisis situations. Amundsen, Brunel and Roosevelt’s accomplishments In addition, from studying all three men (when focusing all had similar elements. They were large endeavours, on geophysical achievements of the 1800s and early watched by the world. They were multi-year, multifaceted 1900s at this level of magnitude, it was a male dominated and attracted a multitude of detractors who would world) we came away with one overarching realisation. exclaim: “It cannot be done.” Fifty engineers of Brunel’s era proclaimed that a tunnel under the River Thames What we started with was the explorer, the engineer large enough for horse and carriage traffic could never and the statesman. What we came away with was be built. For centuries, some of the greatest sea captains an appreciation that while Amundsen, Brunel and and explorers died seeking the Northwest Passage. Roosevelt may each have had one primary profession, Amundsen’s ship and expedition team were deemed they were all highly skilled in all three professions. too small to achieve such a venture. The French failed Each of these three visionaries had elements of being miserably under Ferdinand de Lesseps to build a canal an explorer and an engineer and a statesman. in Panama (de Lesseps had successfully built the Suez Canal years earlier), and America’s early attempt under This led us to the conclusion that in tackling today’s big Roosevelt was following along the same disastrous path. problems, whether climate change, pandemics or other crises, there could be value in approaching the solution But Amundsen, Brunel and Roosevelt all persevered. from the point of view of an explorer, an engineer and a They proved the naysayers wrong. How? We identified statesman all at the same time. ten attributes and will share three of them here. Reference First, mastering the details is crucial. These three men were all leaders, but they did not stay at ■ Borkan B and Hirzel D (2021): the big picture level. Each of them was immersed deep within the details of their endeavours. Audacious Goals, Remarkable Results: Amundsen was likely the most knowledgeable person How an Explorer, an Engineer and a on the planet about the Northwest Passage before he Statesman Shaped our Modern World, started planning his expedition. Brunel knew every Terra Nova Press mile of the Great Western Railway line from London to Bristol. He had surveyed the entire route on horseback Author to find the most level (and thus the fastest) route possible. At one time in his life, Roosevelt was a cowboy who BRAD BORKAN, FRGS, is an author, speaker and consultant focusing on decision-making, leadership, teamwork and resilience Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 41

Turning a blind eye to red flags Tony Jaques explores how a troubled casino company ‘did a Lord Nelson’ and suffered the consequences. Here, he asks the question: What’s the point of crisis red flags if no-one pays any attention? 42

resilience D uring the great naval Battle of Copenhagen in 1801, and exploitative,” conduct in excruciating detail. He the cautious British fleet commander Admiral Sir concluded: “Within a very short time, the commission Cameron Law | Hyde Parker, used signal flags to order Vice Admiral discovered that for many years Crown Melbourne had Ikon Images Horatio Nelson to discontinue the action. engaged in conduct that is, in a word, disgraceful.” Nelson reportedly put his telescope to his blind Finkelstein found that Crown Melbourne helped eye and said: “I see no signal,” then pressed Chinese customers transfer up to $160 million improperly home the attack for a devastating victory. from accounts in China, allowing money laundering to take place. And he discovered – among many other In the case of Australian casino giant Crown Resorts, issues – that the Casino had ‘bullied’ the state government it seems that a prolonged flurry of warning flags regulator and provided it with false or misleading was ignored, and the result was not comprehensive information to delay and frustrate its investigations. victory, but a commercial and reputational crisis. To misquote Jane Austen – who was writing at about Finkelstein concluded that Crown’s misconduct the same time as Nelson’s famous defiance – it is a was: “So callous that it is hard to imagine it could be truth universally acknowledged that just about every engaged in by such a well-known corporation.” But, crisis is preceded by red flags or warning signs. given the enormous commercial and social impact of potentially closing the giant casino, he recommended Crown owns large casino and hotel complexes in a government-appointed special manager to Melbourne and Perth, and a non-gaming hotel in oversee all aspects of its operation for two years. Sydney. Its flagship casino in Melbourne is one of the largest in the world, with more than 500 gaming tables The regulator would then decide whether and 2,600 poker machines, as well as entertainment it was “clearly satisfied” that Crown and conference facilities and three adjacent hotels. Melbourne had returned to suitability. Moreover, Crown is the largest single-site private sector employer in both Victoria and Western Australia. Key question Overseas, Crown owns and operates Aspinalls private For crisis managers, the key question is how the company, gaming club in London and holds a 50 per cent equity the Victorian Government and its watchdog regulator interest in the UK-based Aspers Group casinos. failed to see – or ignored – red flags the size of Tasmania. Large-scale gambling facilities will always attract While the Group Chair and Crown Melbourne controversy. But the still-evolving crisis at Crown chief resigned, what about the many politicians, is a timely case study in how a seemingly successful regulators and crown executives who did a company’s own actions – or inaction – can bring Lord Nelson and turned a blind eye? about a commercial and reputational disaster. Indeed, it’s generally accepted that the state Crown’s most recent problems began in mid-2019 government in Victoria had long resisted calls for an with media reports, based on thousands of leaked inquiry into Crown, given the company’s political documents, alleging it had facilitated large-scale money influence, its role as a very large employer and its laundering, primarily associated with Chinese crime substantial tax contribution to state revenue. gangs, with some of it linked to drug trafficking. Crown’s subsequent overconfidence in its own With a brand-new hotel and a planned VIP- importance was exposed when it wrote to the only casino due to open in Sydney, the New South Gaming Minister – while the Victorian hearing Wales Government launched a Commission of was underway – warning of the “catastrophic” Inquiry into these allegations and whether Crown consequences if Crown lost its licence, and that it was a suitable entity to hold a casino licence. was: “Not in the public interest for Crown to fail.” Following 60 days of public hearings, the inquiry The Commissioner was understandably angry, although reported in early 2021, confirming that money the CEO denied the ill-judged letter was intended to had been laundered through Crown Casino in pre-empt any decisions. She argued that they were simply: Melbourne, and that the company had entered into “Making the government aware,” that an adverse decision dubious partnerships with ‘junket’ tour operators, would be a: “Huge problem for the government, too.” many with links to organised crime gangs. How do companies get to believe they are too big to The inquiry chair found that warning signs and red fail? And how do crisis warning signals get ignored? flags about money laundering through casino-linked bank accounts had been known for many years, yet the company The Commissioner in Melbourne found the board did its best to keep the accounts open. Crown was declared was either not told what was going on, or: “Fell asleep at unfit to hold a casino licence for its new $2.2 billion the wheel.” He also found that many senior executives complex on Sydney Harbour. As a result, the 75-storey involved in the misconduct were: “Indifferent to their building – the tallest in the city – now operates as a hotel ethical, moral and sometimes legal obligations.” and apartment complex without its high-roller casino. Yet none of his 33 recommendations suggested any Unsurprisingly, the bombshell Sydney decision triggered action against individuals. Instead, he recommended Royal Commissions of Inquiry in both Melbourne and broadening and extending the functions of inspectors Perth. While the Western Australia commission is still to assist in the detection of criminal activity. ongoing, the recent Melbourne commission was even more damning than what had transpired in Sydney. Reporting He also recommended that casino legislation be in October 2021, Commissioner Ray Finkelstein amended to oblige the casino operator to notify the chronicled a litany of: “Illegal, dishonest, unethical regulator of a material breach, or a likely breach, of relevant laws and to prohibit them from making false or misleading statements to the regulator. Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 43

In other words, he was suggesting that a specific previous 12 months. The BBC headlined the law was needed to get Crown not to lie to government official report: “Anatomy of an avoidable crash.” officials. Little wonder there seemed to be no real accountability for years of misbehaviour. And lack of Even worse was the disastrous Deepwater Horizon accountability is one of the reasons red flags get ignored. oil rig fire in the Gulf of Mexico, where evidence was given that vital warning systems had been deliberately As Commissioner Finkelstein commented disabled to spare workers being awoken by false alarms. dishearteningly on the senior executives who were involved in the misconduct: “Some were motivated by a drive for For companies to take lessons from the Crown profit. Some simply did what they did because they could.” Casino incident and other cases, they must go beyond the detail of what happened. The real Ignoring or missing red flags is nothing new. When issue is how problems are allowed to happen in the the giant French Société Générale lost billions of dollars first place and how warning signs are ignored. through unauthorised transactions by a single rogue trader, an independent inquiry revealed the bank had Kurt Stocker at Northwestern University once failed to act on 75 red flags over a period of 18 months. said: “Top management, by definition, is the least informed group in the company when it comes And after the collapse of the $65 billion Bernie to bad news. Nothing moves more slowly than bad news running up a hill, a very steep hill.” Top management, by definition, is the least informed group in Similarly, CEO Andy Grove wrote in the wake the company when it comes of the Intel Pentium chip recall: “Most CEOs are in to bad news. Nothing moves the centre of a fortified palace, and news from the more slowly than bad news outside has to percolate through layers of people from the periphery where the action is. I was one of the Madoff investment fraud, SEC Inspector General last to understand the implications of the crisis.” David Kotz admitted his agency missed “numerous red flags” from 1992 until the fraudster was arrested in So, some core requirements for crisis prevention are: December 2008. He conceded that five separate failed ● A structured system to ensure warning signs investigations into Madoff ’s operation had been bungled. are recognised and reported to management; ● Staff at all levels knowing what to look for and More recent was the ‘London whale’ trading know who to tell, in a blame-free environment; scandal that JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon ● An effective process to assess risks comprehensively initially dismissed as a: “Tempest in a teapot.” and, if necessary, take action; and However, it cost his bank a $6.2 billion loss and its ● An executive culture of willingness to listen market value fell $40 billion in a matter of weeks. to bad news and dissenting opinions. A US Senate panel reported that bank management These requirements need to go right to the top of had: “Disregarded multiple warnings,” including the the organisation. For example, following an explosion fact that internal risk limits were breached more than and fire at the BP refinery in Texas City near Houston 300 times. The panel concluded: “The breaches did not, in 2005 – which killed 15 people and injured 170 – the however, spark an in-depth review… or require immediate official inquiry found six underlying causes, all of which remedial action to lower risk. Instead, the breaches were had been known to management, and that ultimate largely ignored or ended by raising the relevant risk limit.” responsibility lay with the Board of Directors in London. But it was reported elsewhere that “only good JP Morgan eventually paid more than one billion US news flowed upward” to then CEO John Browne. dollars in fines to regulators in the United Kingdom and United States, and CEO Dimon conceded that the Detection enigma trades were: “Flawed, complex, poorly reviewed, poorly executed and poorly monitored.” But, he kept his job. Apart from instances of wilful blindness – where red flags are deliberately ignored – it is more common that red flags Of course, it’s not just financial institutions that ignore are simply not properly identified, or the crisis risk is not red flags. In the wake of the Murdoch newspapers fully understood. This requires formal, proactive processes. phone hacking scandal, the British Parliamentary inquiry concluded that the media mogul was not a fit However, the reality is that detecting and acting on person to lead a major corporation and that he: “Turned these red flags is a real challenge for executives. In fact, a blind eye and exhibited wilful blindness to what crisis expert Ian Mitroff concedes that detection of such was going on in his companies and publications.” signals: “Remains an enigma for most organisations.” Ignoring red flags can also lead to physical crises. Yet many organisational crises represent a failure Consider the fatal gas explosion at New Zealand’s Pike of leadership. Sometimes leaders do have all the data River coal mine in which 29 people were killed. Over and information they need to recognise the potential, the previous seven weeks, there had been 48 reports or even inevitability, of major problems, but they of gas build-up, including on the day of the disaster. don’t respond with effective preventive action. Or take the example of the AirAsia Airbus that Red flags exist to warn us of such crises, and crashed into the sea off Indonesia, killing all 162 organisations that fail to heed them are destined to suffer people aboard. The cause was a rudder control the consequences. malfunction that had occurred 23 times in the Author DR TONY JAQUES is Managing Director of Melbourne-based Issue Outcomes P/L and editor of the issue and crisis newsletter Managing Outcomes 44 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

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When a duck is probably a chicken: Why all plans are not the same Andy Marshall discusses the complex world of planning, outlining key differences and similarities between the main types of plans I n my 20 years or so in the resilience field, I’ve often is generated within seconds of a workplace fire alarm being been asked by many different organisations (public activated. Rapid, but controlled action is needed, guided and private) what the difference is between emergency by very simple, clear and well-rehearsed processes and response plans (ERPs), business continuity plans (BCPs), protocols that are robust enough to withstand significant IT disaster recovery (ITDR) plans and crisis management situational stress. Is everybody safe? Has everybody plans. It’s a question that reflects how common it is for been accounted for? Is the job done? Not quite. ERPs us to confuse them from time to time. If it waddles like should also be able to integrate and collaborate with key a duck, quacks like a duck and swims like a duck, surely stakeholders, both externally (eg the emergency services) it’s a… BCP? So, are they all the same or are they all and internally (eg local leadership and technical experts). completely different? And do we really need all of them? At this stage, let’s say 20 to 30 minutes into an incident, Let’s start by looking at the main types of plan. the main focus is unlikely to be on the specific effect ERPs are those plans that we should turn to in the first on the organisation’s critical processes. However, the few minutes of an incident, when our main concern should impact of the incident should be indicating whether be (in this order) the safety and security of our people and or not business will be disrupted to such a degree property. Emergencies will come in all different shapes that careful, ongoing management of this will be and sizes, but they are perhaps best characterised by their required. This is where BCPs come in and it is an unpredictability, absence of prior warning, lack of a clear often overlooked, but critical, requirement of any picture as to what’s actually happened (or is happening), effective ERP to ensure that BCP leads are notified rapid escalation and the need to make and communicate so that they can activate their plans if necessary. very timely decisions under potentially significant pressure. Think of the sense of immediacy, focus and impetus that BCPs are about defining an organisation’s critical or key processes and listing the agreed continuity strategies If it waddles like a duck, quacks like a duck and swims like a duck... 46 LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow

business continuity that the organisation will follow to restore its critical with key internal and external stakeholders to ensure that Sonsedskaya | processes if they are affected by a period of disruption. this is carried out in a very controlled and systematic way. Adobe Stock BCPs are documents that result from detailed, structured If they choose to don their fluorescent tabards and start planning well before any disruption occurs and they shouting orders into a megaphone, they should be asked should be perpetually evolutionary, owing to the politely to leave things to the emergency response team. enduring nature of change. People move, departments restructure, leadership priorities change, technology ITDR plans are the contingencies that IT specialists improves, customer requirements shift… All of these and will follow to restore specific systems in the event of more will require the question: ‘So what?’ to be asked disruption or loss. Ahead of any incident, BCP leads about whether the organisation has the right critical should link with IT as an identified dependency (see processes in its BCP and whether its assumptions about above) to highlight which systems the organisation feels how to restore them are still current and effective. are critical, either as stand-alone systems or because they support the delivery of a defined critical process. To be completely effective, BCPs must also be This conversation should then lead to the establishment collaborative in nature, principally because they are of agreed timescales for recovering and restoring IT typically influenced by one or more dependencies. systems and the retrieval of data from an agreed point These dependencies can be internal, such as following disruption or disaster. These timescales would provision of a key IT system, supply of components, typically be enshrined in a service level agreement. procuring supplies or testing finished products, or external, such as a product or service provided Wider impact by an external supplier or third-party vendor. If we assume that a key IT system has been disrupted, This is why, whenever I’m asked what key element the BCP would be used to liaise with IT to ensure makes a BCP successful, I would always answer: that the system is being recovered within the agreed “People.” It’s people who will build the networks, timescale. However, the BCP would also look further internally and externally, to collaborate across than just the loss and restoration of the IT system. In teams, departments, divisions, geographies, sectors this example, it should also be interested in the wider and disciplines. These relationships make sure that impact on its operations; for example, the supplier dependencies are understood and ‘handshakes’ take cannot be paid until IT capability is restored so either place to establish a clear link between dependencies and payment needs to be delayed, or alternative means the BCP. Lyndon Bird (CRJ 16:4) is therefore absolutely should be implemented, and the solution needs to right to claim that effective BCPs are characterised be communicated to the supplier. ITDR restores the by the application of ‘soft power’ or ‘meta-leadership’ system; BCPs manage the effect on the organisation. to build effective networks, which lie well outside the jurisdiction of any single line management structure. We cannot leave ITDR without mentioning Silo working is the road to ruin for the modern BCP. cybersecurity. On the one hand, the impact of a cyber- attack can be interpreted one-dimensionally; regardless So, when thinking about the distinction between an of the cause, a critical IT system has been affected ERP and a BCP, maybe consider it this way: BCPs are not and so needs to be restored. However, a cybersecurity about putting the fire out. They are about understanding response is normally initiated and co-ordinated through that the fire is under control or completely out, but that it a separate and distinct group of technical experts in a has caused significant damage affecting one or more of the security operations centre (SOC), often in circumstances organisation’s known and defined critical processes. The where an additional layer of complexity exists around people who know how to restore the critical processes now the sensitivity of the attack, such as who has carried it need the time, space and resources to do just that, working out or what they might have targeted. How this plays … Surely it’s a business continuity plan? ubscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 47

out from organisation to organisation will vary. The a crisis response, but they would not be its singular purpose of raising it in this discussion is to outline the focus, for two reasons. First, the granular detail that need for careful and timely collaboration and co- BC and ITDR plans contain in particular would be too ordination across ITDR plans, BCPs and cybersecurity. great for the more strategic nature of a crisis. Second, leadership and operation of BCPs, ERPs and ITDR Crisis management plans are designed to manage plans should be delegated to a level of operation well complex incidents, the typical hallmarks of which are: below that of a typical crisis management team. The ● They are high impact/low probability working assumptions here are that the technical and/ incidents that typically have strategic bearing or organisational specialists would be empowered to and threaten the reputation and/or viability operate outside of the team managing the crisis and, in of all or part of the organisation; many cases, these structures may have already been ● They often require co-ordination across activated well before the incident escalated to a crisis. multiple geographical, organisational and jurisdictional boundaries; Now release the elephant into the room: are the plans ● They are typically established and run we’ve discussed the same or different? Historically and by senior leaders in an organisation; practically, they are clearly different. The lens through ● They require careful control and co-ordination as which they see things is shaped by a distinct focus on the effects are diverse, complex and unpredictable; the necessary skills they require, the organisational level at which they operate, the likelihood of their Now release the elephant into activation and any external drivers around industry the room: are the plans we’ve standards and regulatory/legal requirements. discussed the same or different? Could – or should – they be the same? Surely Kojin_nikon | ● They are focused on establishing a clear multiple disciplines supported by multiple teams Adobe Stock strategic direction that all affected parts of the simply do not stand the test of simplification and organisation can understand and follow; efficiency? More to the point, are organisations now ● They can be supported by specific strategic becoming so complex and operating at such incredible contingency plans, such as a pandemic plan; and pace, particularly with advances in areas such as ● They often generate the requirement for sensitive artificial intelligence, that combining disciplines external engagement, for example with the media, under a single, unitary ‘plan’ is the future? regulators, governments, investors/shareholders or the general public/affected communities. Maybe, but the counter argument would be that complexity is not necessarily defeated by simplicity; we A crisis response typically requires an interface across cannot pretend that complexity doesn’t exist. Imagine the multiple disciplines – security, legal, finance, human challenge of trying to fathom the impact of an incident on resources, internal and external communications – the co- an organisation’s critical processes – assuming that these are no longer prepared in advance – on the fly? At the ordination of which usually very least, this would probably require the mobilisation of takes place via a standby a new style of highly adaptive, multidisciplinary resilience team that has received leadership, extremely well-trained and exercised and specific training in unrelentingly agile in its response capability and capacity. the techniques of managing a crisis. The compromise approach would be to continue to Accepting that the accept the innate individuality of each discipline, but to probability of a crisis understand that greater resilience can only be achieved at occurring is low, it is the point of greatest vulnerability: where plans intersect. This perhaps returns us to soft power. Collaboration, perhaps more important networking and information-sharing would, in this case, to maintain a regular become the key enablers of resilience by challenging cadence of exercises with crisis silo working, creating an integrated approach that is management teams to ensure comfortable with technical complexity and simplicity that the team understands the in equal measure. To echo Lyndon Bird, this approach risks that the organisation would not necessarily draw its legitimacy from the faces and that it is ready to signature of an organisation’s most senior leader. It respond at any time, even would be based on resilience being everyone’s business. though a ‘real’ crisis may not have happened for a number Hopefully, this discussion provides an antidote to of months or even years. confusion by outlining some of the most common The Covid-19 pandemic will organisational contingency plans and why they are in clearly have helped to keep crisis management in many ways so uniquely distinct from each other, at the focus, but it is remarkable how quickly human memory least. However, this raises an interesting and challenging can move on from even the severest of challenges. question about how we lead and how our specialist BC, emergency response (certainly in the very early disciplines fit within any future resilience construct. stages of an incident) and ITDR (depending on the exact scenario) could form a key enabling element of Time to feed the ducks! Author ANDY MARSHALL is an experienced resilience practitioner and Member of the CRJ Advisory Panel 48 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

Isis Ixworth | Adobe Stock Making the water visible: A methodology Gill Kernick shares her methodology for exploring systemic change that she developed to help make sense of our failure to learn from catastrophes W hen I was interviewed a couple of days after the critical that it does. We will see changes to regulations Grenfell Tower fire in 2017, I commented: “We and to firefighting practices and we will see changes have to get beyond blame to the systemic issues to what materials are used when buildings are erected that actually led to decisions being made.” and to how they are tested and certified. I am not at all I soon realised that there was little understanding about confident, though, that we will see systemic change. what we mean by systemic change. To fulfil my promise to myself make sure that we learned from the incident, I Will we shift the conditions holding in place our began exploring and writing in this domain and, in 2021, failure to listen to residents and others operating at my book Catastrophe and Systemic Change was published. the sharp end? Will we shift the conditions holding Many people have expressed an interest in the in place our over-reliance on regulations and ivory enquiry-based approach – making the water visible – tower expertise? Will we shift the conditions holding that I used to research and structure the book. I have in place our reluctance to examine our deep, and attempted to codify it here, so that others can use and often unconscious biases, beliefs and assumptions? build upon it. Although it was developed to consider disasters, it could be applied to any complex issue. Piecemeal change is relatively easy – you identify After expanding on the need to make the water what went wrong and then put plans in place to visible, I will discuss the components of the methodology correct it. For systemic change, we need a different and end by summarising some key findings. perspective. Systemic change requires making the water It’s useful to distinguish between piecemeal and systemic visible – illuminating the systemic forces at play and change as I mentioned in my previous article, Systemic ‘grappling with this messy kaleidoscope of factors’. change in complex times (CRJ,16:4). Most of the responses to Grenfell and other disasters are piecemeal: changing There are four components to the methodology parts of the system but not the system itself. For example, I use to make the water visible: The principles; piecemeal change will happen post-Grenfell, and it is the approach; the model; and the questions. First, let’s look at two of the principles that underpin the methodology. Principle One says that piecemeal solutions do not cause systemic change and can Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 17:1 | March 2022 49

have unintended consequences, while Principle ineffectiveness of linear cause-and-effect ways of thinking Two suggests that traditional bureaucratic, linear and the need to step back and view issues holistically. It cause-and-effect ways of thinking and leading reminds me of building on floodplains and other piecemeal are ineffective in enabling systemic change. decisions that have led to devastation and suffering. As an example, the penguin pool at London These principles give rise to the approach, Zoo, completed in 1934, is an icon of modern designed to move beyond these ways of thinking. It British architecture and engineering. However, the is grounded in enquiry and sense-making, with the penguins were relocated in 2004 after contracting intent to enable action and change. The use of stories a bacterial infection – bumblefoot – from micro- and critical friends is essential in this process. abrasions caused by walking on concrete. Authentic enquiry requires inhabiting the space of ‘not In a letter to the Evening Standard, architect John knowing’ – to paraphrase Socrates: “I know that I know nothing.” I use the term ‘enquiry’ to differentiate this Issues with penguins’ health at from the more formal investigation processes or inquiries. London Zoo show the limitations and unintended consequences The two overarching enquiries I settled on were: of piecemeal solutions, the Why does our failure to learn make sense? and: ineffectiveness of linear cause- What will it take to enable systemic change? and-effect ways of thinking and the need to step back Sense-making, a term coined by Karl Weick, is and view issues holistically tangled with an enquiry-based approach. Sense-making is not an academic exercise and does not require your Figure 1: The Allan explained that rather than issues with the neutrality. Distinct from analysis, interpretation or Grenfell Model for original design, decisions made by the zoo had led exploration, it is a creative process that makes sense of Systemic Change to this outcome. The original, largely rubber paving unknown and complex domains in a way that enables designed for the penguin’s comfort, had been replaced action. This intent to engender action is critical. with concrete. A layer of quartz was added to the ramp surfaces for the benefit of the keepers, but to the Throughout the process, I was surrounded by critical discomfort of the penguins. And the original birds for friends and mentors. This was invaluable because which the pool was designed prefer to huddle, but were they validated and challenged my sense-making and replaced by Humboldt penguins, which prefer to burrow, helped shape my thinking. They also gave me hope. making the original nesting quarters unsuitable. One of my mentors was Jim Wetherbee, a retired This illustration of the principles shows the limitations American Naval officer, test pilot and NASA astronaut. and unintended consequences of piecemeal solutions, the On a day when I felt particularly helpless, Wetherbee said: “The doors of the people who should be talking to you will likely be closed; stop knocking on them. Look for the open doors.” This took me out of linear thinking, into the emergent maze of change and complexity. I have learned that systemic change requires disruption – that I need to shift how I think and act. I’ve come to see that kindness can be more disruptive than aggression, that compassion can be more impactful than taking positions. I’ve learned to plant seeds 50 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @editorialcrj