CRJ 18:1

September 2022 | vol:17 | issue:3 April 2023| vol:18| issue:1 Editor in Chief ccoonntteennttss EPmuilby lHisohuginh g Editor NNNeewewsw.s.s...&.&....C.C...o.o..m..m...m.m....e.e..n.n..t.t.............................. 4 TToeFLhhrviuaseeattaroluleunorr’a,nssetsetgeaearSytferhfisteaoebBtormetpfrsaloo-edAmwrthaceBuothroisdoeirtnonnkslba.ob.tan.gea.c.;iyr.nh.,at.gt.nta.o.oda.no.dn.dil.sta.’o.sH.ayu.a.an.t....rsd..r..ti..ae..R..nx....upd....oei..n..sr..g..tla23h28ti [email protected] WNeewnese..d...a...n..e..w....s..o..c..i.a..l.c..o..n..t..r.a..c..t......................................... 84 vpitoaol lcfoomr tmheuneivcaaltuioantiosnkilol ffoErUlecaivdiel rpsrotection [email protected] PPuebrlimc apcorliicsieiss&shgoouvldebrneabnacseed....o..n...t.h..e...f.a..c..t.s.. 8 exercises ESEEudmeditiiCloythorHarioamEulbgAmehrsleasriinsittaunst oAfnthitae hPumnwaannlifexcpyclolere, ssumgegtehsotdssAolbf earcthWieevainleg A university experience ...............................34 the UN’s SDGs, keeping in mind the global ARnethsirloiepnotlomgiisntdMsetli.s..s..a...S..c..h...r.i.f.t....................... 30 seume@[email protected] Ecrmiseesrtghaet narceypremvaalenntatgodeamy ent Design & Production CDhreissiPgenttic&anProduction TAhrethmuorrRalacbojmohpna.s..s................................................................................1121 eRxoabmeirnteHsaolnl aerugnuievsertshiatyt ’pselersaodnearsl hreipsilience is reessspeonntsiael tifowtheeaCreovtoidb-1o9unpcaendbeamckicand regain Rizwan Ahmad BAervtheurlreyRaGbrjioffihtnhsdimscaupssseosuthaisnceatrheicear lin control of the work we do, and that it involves etmheerrgeesinliceyncmeasneacgteomr aenndt ftrhaemeefwfeocrtkemergency [email protected] planners have on people's lives Tahme iinmdpsoetrtfaonccuessoefdcorenacthivaintyg.i.n..g...d..i.f.f.i.c..u..l.t.i.e..s. 37 Lina Kolesnikova Hubris, hierarchy & humanity ......................14 AitLreceraveriaentwiivnsegaefnlredomrmeevnpitseeisrsmhiteaslpccirnoisgmispth.e..et.e..En..Pc..Se...a..s...... 33 EAmrrileysHtoeudgdhesvpeelaokpsmtoeLnutc..y...E..a..s..t.h..o..p..e...a..b..o..u. 1t2 fApraenmrdpeyewtBuolaraklc,ckwrwirseitislel semxJepealaonnrsneifseowrBoharargrtaansistaattieonosf News and Blog research eMmaetrtghewncPyoarncdelldi ilsoaosktseramt carnisaisgepmlaennnting in Paasnudtbhheloicwwostrhladefybecetacynomi&mepssrmoevoceruethrveoiitrlayrteilseilaienndce Lina Kolesnikova times of turbulence and the mindset needed Subscriptions Tfaolrkoinrggapnriseaptaiornesdntoesrse.t.u..r.n..e..d....t.o...n..o..r.m....a..li.t.y......18 CSruisbissRcersipotinosensJournal is published Book reviewAfter Covid are people risk fatigued or more Tdhaenngewroubsattlefield of the brain .................38 qCuraisritseRrlye;sipt oisnsaevaJiloaubrlneablyisspuubbslcisrihpetidon in hqauradrtceorplyy; iotrisdiagvitaaila. ble by subscription risk aware? Amanda Coleman investigates Information warfare is an integral [email protected] Negotiations & crisis leadership............ 14 cComlipmonaetnet o&f muilitnarryesstrtategy, [email protected] LEemgialyl fHaocuegtsh..r.e..v..i.e..w...s..O...r..d..e..r...o..u..t..o..f..C...h..a..o..s...b..y20 eKxiplllaeirnhs eEaktawtearivneasK..o..s..t.i.o..u..k..h..i.n..a................... 36 CdSaroatuastpthicuAlmtsiineaagisscuobrewrassc,.it.n.h.g.i.s.f.os..ur..m.a...mh..e.e.a.r.t.cw..o.a.u.v.l.ed....b.W.e..i.tt.h.h.o.e4u2t PPuubblliisshheedd bbyy CCrriissiiss MReapnoagrteinmgeLnitmLitimedit,ed, LSecgoatlt fWraamlkeewr,odrkeslv,intogoilnstaonndegexoptieartitoisne, cinonflict, S7o1-n7d5esShPelaltcoenFSatrrmee, tWCeosvtecnotttGRaoradde,nDorking daisnadsttoeor lrsistkhamt awnoargkement are underestimated RLoHn4d3oEnBW, CU2KH 9JQ UK ©©CCrriissiissMRaenpaogrteinmgeLnitmLiitmedite2d02230.2A2r. ticles aPnodlyucnrdiesreustilaisnedd,esxatyesnOdlegda cSrhiassish..k..i.n..a........ 18 ChhortitsesNtetehdaht athme-Breegnionnetht apsreesxepnetrsieannced, writes Aprutbicllieshsepdubmliasyhendotmbaeyrnepotrobdeurceepdroinduacneyd in oLvuebrvniaewJeorfarpsNyacqhvoilogical operations afonrymfowrmithwouitthpouritorprwiorirttwernitpteenrmpiesrsmioisns. ion. TmAomwanaaanrgddisangnCaaotlieloomnngaanlrrueenxsnpililinoegrneccserits.h.i.se...sc..ih.t.ua..al.l.et.i.on..ng..e.i.n.o..hf2e2r and commercial disinformation PPrriinntteedd iinn EEnnggllaanndd bbyy TMhiecrMoparnessosn, UGKroup, UK Heatwaves, unrest & violence...................40 IISSSSNN 11774455--88663333 RbaodoiktyCarJisaisti CdeosmcmribuensictahteiojnouSrtnreaytegies FErvoime Lhuonpneetxoprloeraelsityh.o..w...c..l.i.m...a..t.e...c..h...a..n..g..e.......46 www.crisis-response.com towards implementing Indonesia’s CphrorivsoSkiensgesor ceixaal muninreessttihneECuBroRpNe through fwolwloww.coruisrisC-rResJpcoonmsep.aconmy page on LinkedIn teihnxrseteraectmulraeintywdsecaathpeeracnodndpirteiopnasreadnndefsosod ffoollloowwuosuornCtRwJitctoerm@paednyitopraigaelcorjn LinkedIn cConrciespist olfe‘raisdk teorrseshiliiepnce’ follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports TAhveopideariblsleofn2aGtuaranldh3aGzasrwdi..t..c..h..-..o..f.f...........................4484 CBCleirmivseairstleeaytloeGcnrhgifnfitothhlosegcjoyo.un..cr..nlu..e.d.y.e....s.....t..h....i..s......s....e....r..i..e....s...............2204 EbmasileydHoonughhersrpeesaekasrctoh,WasakseheSmexitphlores the aimbopuotrtpaonscseibolef aclilmiviantge ecthhaicnaglefrsaomluetwioonrsk, ETuhreopUeKananrodatmheerwsomrldighatrenoetxpbeecatibnlge atonoctahller Leadershiphowever unpalatable they might be 9d1r1oounghtht.eRirocbeelrlpt hFoienldesainndthAelbUeSrtAW, weaalren Fdriesdsedciet MthceBisrisdueeatnodsReeudwohlfevthaenrdtheer Berg Future global challenges........................ 24 Mostafa Sayyadi and Michael J. Provitera situation is avoidable and where authorities Laeragdueertshhaitpf:inWdhinagt aitntaapkepslie.d....s..o..lu...t.i.o..n...t.o.......28 Uarrbeagnoisnegcuwrriotyng..............................................50 Ctifonuottwmeurhrpeeoesgttyeloponuobciaianelrtsecf,hoaaarreclalecsllnohgridfetiisnnggistfaorocEmorimcwmhMaoctnNtouldtyo Lina Kolesnikova examines the blame gHamaezaaftredr sLiverpool fans were tear gassed, cLreussshoend ninobtolettalernneecdk..s...a..t..t.u...r.n..s..t.i.l.e..s...a..n..d........ 48 AHRMnudeamyxsaiBimnlliafieacskcinntwcogerelislme..xp..p.a.l.ac..it.n....s......h....o....w....................................................3206 aWsshaautllteesdsaotnas wfoeortebalellamrnaetdchfrionmPathries Santa Catarina 2008 floods, which exposed eDmopuogwlaesriSntgocaknadmmtoatkiveastiangloforkonattlinheow relief Cvruolnwedraebdilivtyentouensa.t.u..r..a..l..h..a..z..a..r.d..s.....H...a..s...B..r..a..z..i.l. 52 prfgeueosnrvpfdoeosrrnnmcdaaaennnrcscebeboi,enoinnisteintafioettivnvsaevotisirorognnamanniesdnattcaioul,nltsuaolrceial and CfohurinsdtoaphwearyKteommpaskaeyistsaelcf rmisoisrecarenscilrieenatt,e tahsekospApnodrtruénFitryantocirsectohiPnukgsaasfety and security CGlliombaatlecchhaallnegnegeps24p24 BHaetatltewfaovreosu&r muninredstpp3480 Malte Mueller | Adobe Stock Ajay | Adobe Stock Virtosmedia | 123rf.com Tashatuvango | Adobe Stock 22 FoFlolollwowouoruLr iLniknekdeIdnInCoCmompapnaynypapgaegefofrour pudpadtaetse:sT: hTeheCCrisriissisRResepsopnosneseJoJuorunranlal foflolollwowususonontwtwittiettre@r @CeRdJi_toreripaolcrtrsj

CRISIS RESPONSE Cover story: Public and civil unrest comment Cover image: Marina Labella | Ikon Images We live in a world Danger on the rails...................................... 50 Empowering refugee women................ 74 that’s been set Bill Peterson investigates the Ohio train alight. From derailment incident, which has raised Shreyas Jayakumar explores the Azadi the aftershocks of the concerns for public health and the Project’s work, which supports refugee Covid-19 pandemic to environment in the USA women, and enables them to take back financial shocks the control of their own lives world over, there are Earthquake devastation......................... 54 plenty of reasons for public unrest Technology to transform into civil meltdowns. Luavut Zahid speaks to Burcak Basbug, This edition is going into print as the Academic Director of ICPEM, about the Virtual assistance in disasters....................78 protests in France have turned ugly. situation in Türkiye after the earthquake in On the other side of the world, Trump’s February As the digital revolution continues, response legal battles are one spark away from organisations increasingly rely on ICTs to inciting possible violence, so much Protests vs riots deliver disaster assistance. Gabriel Carrier so that even the judge overseeing examines the developments in Canada the case has asked both parties to Psychology behind collective action....... 58 refrain from statements that could Protests and riots are rarely spontaneous and Sirens to sounds....................................... 82 cause unrest. In the global south, are often the symptoms of unrest and the already burdened populations, who manifestation of a deep malaise, according to Amy Leete takes a look at how emergency have been dealing with political and Matt Minshall services staff are using TikTok to provide economic whiplash, are facing even informational content that could very well save more challenging situations because of Caught in the crossfire........................... 62 someone’s life climate-change-induced hazards such as earthquakes and heatwaves. Jennifer Hesterman dissects the issue of Health gun violence in the USA and how it has At CRJ, our focus continues to be on become the leading cause of death among No safeguards.......................................... 86 the effects of such ruptures and how children in the country emergency services and planners can HatiPlong’s team of clinical psychologists be alert to their fallout. For example, Extremism & populist leaders ............... 66 examines the mental health challenges faced Anita Punwani tackles the subject of by first responders, and how getting the right how we can stick to the UN’s SDGs Elton Cunha explores the prevalence of support can become critical when it comes to while facing worldwide crises. On ideological extremism in South America and them doing their jobs well p33, one of our finest advisors, Andy how it has contributed to political instability, Blackwell, explores how we can learn culminating in the recent violent events in Evolution in public health.......................90 from permacrisis and become more several Latin American countries resilient. Similarly, on p30 Robert Raphael Barishansky discusses public Hall explores how personal resilience Turbulent times........................................ 68 health emergency preparedness in the can help us bounce back faster. USA since 9/11 Where one of our authors discusses Luavut Zahid speaks to Dr Cesar Cunha the complex needs of refugees and Campos about the social and political Enhancing preparedness........................ 92 the so-called migrant crisis, on p74 unrest in Latin American countries, and Shreyas Jayakumar offers a parallel: an how the situation can be resolved through a Alexandra Olson explores the work being organisation that’s empowering refugee comprehensive approach done by the Trondheim Red Cross under the women to do more, irrespective of how Engage project their lives have been turned inside out. From focusing on the mental health Refugees Plus of first responders to how emergency organisations are using TikTok to help Of migrants and refugees...................... 70 Events......................................................................96 people tackle crises, people who are Frontline..................................................................98 solution-oriented continue to find ways Lina Kolesnikova takes a look at the refugee for communities to heal and thrive. Yes, crisis in Europe and how Schengen states Elton Cunha speaks to Dr Osvaldo Moraes there is heightened turmoil no matter are grappling with the influx of refugees about his work as Director of Cemaden, what direction one looks in. But we looking for help, and migrants looking for Brazil's national centre for monitoring and must stay focused on resilience; we opportunities alerts of natural hazards must remains steadfast on remedying chaos. In that, I’m grateful for the CRJ Gun violence p62 No safeguards p86 community, because many of you are on the frontlines of finding solutions Tim Mudd | Unsplash Freepik.com that work. There is a vital need for a ‘prepare, not repair’ approach. We choose order and humanity over chaos and despair. Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 3

UNDP offers roadmap for Türkiye’s reconstruction CITING IMMENSE COST of disaster, United Nations Development “The scope of the destruction is unprecedented,” said UNDP Programme (UNDP) has appealed for US$550 million for 31 projects Resident Representative Louisa Vinton. “This is why we expect aimed at restoring livelihoods, public services and cultural heritage equally unprecedented commitments from global donors.” Presenting a roadmap for a sustainable recovery, the UNDP Building on the TERRA findings, UNDP has prepared an offer offered international donors an opportunity to assist the Government composed of 31 build back better projects for which it is seeking and people of Türkiye as they rebuild following the devastating funding as part of recovery and reconstruction efforts that the earthquakes in February. The disaster struck an area of 110,000 sq km organisation is proposing to implement in Türkiye. Alongside the across southern Türkiye, killing more than 50,000 people, displacing physical reconstruction of houses and infrastructure, the projects are 3.3 million (more than 20 per cent of the region’s total population) aimed at restoring livelihoods and social services. and destroying more than 301,000 buildings. “Reconstruction is not just about bricks and mortar, but also lives UNDP’s announcement came following an international donor and livelihoods,” said Vinton. conference in Brussels on March 20, which mobilised US$6.5 billion in support for the earthquake response in Türkiye. “People need secure employment to ensure a steady income; they need public services, such as healthcare and education; they need to The conference featured a presentation of the findings of the be able to shop, relax and socialise with other people. In short, they Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment need to get back to normal life as soon as possible. (TERRA), an analysis of the disaster’s financial effects conducted by the Turkish Government with support from UNDP, the UN, the EU \"At UNDP we are already working in the region on projects that and the World Bank. This analysis estimated the total damages and put people at the forefront of the recovery and rebuilding efforts,” she losses caused by the earthquakes at US$103.6 billion. added. n For more see: tr.undp.org. Education crisis in Burkina Faso Photo: GPE Kelley Lynch OVER A MILLION CHILDREN in Burkina Faso are social needs of students often traumatised by displacement and conflict currently affected by school closures with 6,134 academic must be sustained and increased nationwide. institutions shut as of February 2023, an increase of over 40 per cent since the end of the last school year. Nearly one out “Insecurity is a big part of why so many schools close, but food of four schools country-wide are now out of service due to insecurity in the Sahel and East regions is also a driver of school rampant insecurity and violence, which have forced close to dropouts,” said Tin Tua’s director, Yembuani Yves Ouoba. “We two million people into displacement. are witnessing an accelerating assault on education. Teachers are threatened and parents are frightened. Children are paying the On the eve of the high-level conference on Education heaviest price. When a child is not at school, he is more at risk of in Emergencies, organised by the European Commission being exploited, being a victim of violence and trafficking, or even and the United Nations Children’s Fund in Brussels, the being recruited by armed groups,” noted the Representative of Unicef Norwegian Refugee Council together with the Education in Burkina Faso, Sandra Lattouf. Parties to the conflict must do Cluster in Burkina Faso and the Forum des Organisations non more to protect school infrastructures from attacks and not occupy gouvernementales internationales humanitaires (Fongih), two academic buildings. We welcome the upcoming inter-ministerial umbrella entities representing 87 national and international order to set up national and regional committees in charge of the organisations operating in the country, called for increased implementation of the Safe School Declaration and hope they help access to education for children left behind, whether they are make schools safe for all Burkinabè children. internally displaced or live in enclaved areas. n For more information please visit: www.nrc.no “Only about a quarter of the children driven out-of-school have been given new classrooms. The majority are left without access to education, robbing them of their childhood and of their chance to become independent adults and citizens,” said Hassane Hamadou, NRC’s country director in Burkina Faso. Out of eight schools, only two are operational in the blockaded town of Pama in the East region, one of the three regions with the highest number of school closures along with Sahel and Boucle du Mouhoun. Six teachers and a few volunteers are currently serving over 1,000 children in Pama. Over 31,000 teachers have been affected by the education crisis nationwide, of which about 6,300 have been redeployed so far in schools hosting large numbers of internally displaced students. The reopening or relocation of around 300 schools since January marks a welcome step in the right direction. However, it is now crucial to increase the use of the double shifts approach in operating schools, to set-up more classrooms wherever possible, and to accelerate the reassignment of teachers to new sites in displacement areas. This crisis has disproportionately affected girls. A study conducted by Plan International revealed that girls are two-and-a-half times more at risk of being driven out of schools than boys in a crisis situation. Meanwhile, ongoing efforts to help teachers meet the growing psycho- 4 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

news Unsplash.com in brief Human-wildlife conflict places an unequal Mexico: A deadly fire killed at burden on vulnerable individuals least 39 migrants at a processing centre on the Mexico-US border. A NEW STUDY has highlighted the unequal five threatened carnivores have over one-third Most of the victims were believed burden of human-carnivore conflict and its effect of their range located in the most economically to be Venezuelans, Guatemalans, on sustainable development goals. The research, sensitive conflict areas. This indicates the and other Central American published in Communications Biology, was importance of grappling with multiple and nationals. Criminal gangs conducted by an international team.  conflicting sustainable development goals, such as are exploiting the desperate protecting life on land and eliminating poverty and migrants, and the UN is urging It reveals that the vulnerability to conflict hunger. The research is the first spatially explicit member states to establish safer arising from large carnivores on cattle varies analysis of the potential economic burden arising and more organised migration between developed and developing economies. from human-wildlife conflict at a global scale.  routes. Vulnerability was measured by the effects on annual per capita income, and the loss It provides a clearer understanding of the Peru: Heavy rainfall since of livestock in transitioning and developing financial and social costs of losing livestock January 2023 has caused economies was found to be between two and in human communities. The authors suggest floods, landslides, and eight times higher than in developed ones. In that governments, researchers, and local casualties. The most affected addition, cattle keepers in developing economies communities must work together to develop departments are Piura, Tumbes, produce 31 per cent less cattle meat per animal innovative solutions to mitigate human-wildlife Lambayeque, Ayacucho, on average. In the lowest-income areas, the loss conflict, ensuring that wildlife protection and Arequipa. As of March of a single cow or bull equates to nearly a year- aligns with sustainable development goals. The 27, there were 71 fatalities, and-a-half of lost calories consumed by a child. unequal burden of human-carnivore conflict 131,000 people in need of underscores the need for urgent action to protect humanitarian assistance, and The study also showed that 82 per cent of livelihoods and conserve biodiversity. over 54,000 damaged houses carnivore range falls outside protected areas, and and 144 destroyed bridges. The Government has declared a state Algorithmic breakthrough empowers TB of emergency for 1,030 districts. diagnosis in children Bangladesh: A massive fire AN INTERNATIONAL TEAM of researchers or went undiagnosed and untreated, according to broke out in Kutupalong has devised an algorithm to help doctors in the World Health Organization (WHO). Balukhali refugee camps in resource-limited settings diagnose tuberculosis Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. Over (TB) in children and decide on the right Around 226,000 children and adolescents died 12,000 refugees were displaced, treatment, writes Sanjeet Bagcchi. from the disease, which mainly affects the lungs. more than 2,000 shelters were The paper says the algorithm will help empower destroyed or damaged, as well as “In high-burden countries, physicians seriously primary healthcare providers in areas with high more than 90 facilities including lack confidence in making diagnosis of TB in TB incidence to start appropriate and timely hospitals and learning centres. children,” said Bangladesh-based paediatrics treatment, ultimately saving lives. More than 15,000 individuals professor Shakil Ahmed, co-author of the study, were affected and over 2,800 published in The Lancet Child and Adolescent The results prompted the WHO to release new shelters and 1,000 WASH Health. In 2020, almost two thirds of TB cases in interim recommendations supporting the use of infrastructures were destroyed. children aged under 15 were either not reported algorithms to assess children with possible TB in its guidelines on the treatment of childhood TB. Tanzania: The first-ever cases of Marburg Virus Disease were found in the country, with eight people developing symptoms including fever, vomiting, bleeding, and renal failure. Five have died, and the remaining three are receiving treatment. A total of 161 contacts are being monitored. Marburg virus disease is highly virulent and causes haemorrhagic fever, with a fatality ratio of up to 88 per cent. There are no vaccines or antiviral treatments approved to treat the virus. Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 5

Amino acid linked to depression A breakthrough came in 2021, when the team solved the structure of GPR158. What the team members saw surprised them. The GPR158 A COMMON AMINO ACID, glycine, can deliver a ‘slow-down’ signal receptor looked like a microscopic clamp with a compartment – akin to to the brain, likely contributing to major depression, anxiety and other something they had seen in bacteria, not human cells. mood disorders in some people, scientists at the Wertheim UF Scripps Institute for Biomedical Innovation & Technology have found. “We were barking up the completely wrong tree before we saw the structure,” Martemyanov said. “We said, ‘Wow, that’s an amino acid The discovery improves understanding of the biological causes of receptor. There are only 20, so we screened them right away and only major depression and could accelerate efforts to develop new, faster-acting one fit perfectly. That was it. It was glycine.” medications for such hard-to-treat mood disorders, said neuroscientist Kirill Martemyanov, PhD, corresponding author of the study. That wasn’t the only odd thing. The signalling molecule was not an activator in the cells, but an inhibitor. The business end of GPR158 “Most medications for people with depression take weeks before connected to a partnering molecule that hit the brakes rather than the they kick in, if they do at all. New and better options are really needed,” accelerator when bound to glycine. said Martemyanov, who chairs the neuroscience department at the University of Florida in Jupiter, US. Martemyanov said he and his team “Usually receptors like GPR158, known as G protein Coupled of students and postdoctoral researchers have spent many years working Receptors, bind G proteins. This receptor was binding an RGS protein, toward this discovery. They didn’t set out to find a cause, much less which is a protein that has the opposite effect of activation,” said a possible treatment route for depression. Instead, they asked a basic Thibaut Laboute, PhD, a postdoctoral researcher from Martemyanov’s question: How do sensors on brain cells receive and transmit signals into group and first author of the study. the cells? Therein lay the key to understanding vision, pain, memory, behaviour and possibly much more, Martemyanov suspected. Scientists have been cataloguing the role of cell receptors and their signalling partners for decades. Those that still don’t have known “It’s amazing how basic science goes. Fifteen years ago we discovered signalers, such as GPR158, have been dubbed ‘orphan receptors.’ a binding partner for proteins we were interested in, which led us to this new receptor,” Martemyanov said, adding: “We’ve been unspooling this The finding means that GPR158 is no longer an orphan receptor, for all this time.” Laboute said. Instead, the team renamed it mGlyR, short for: 'Metabotropic glycine receptor.' In 2018 the Martemyanov team found the new receptor was involved in stress-induced depression. If mice lacked the gene for the receptor, “An orphan receptor is a challenge. You want to figure out how it called GPR158, they proved surprisingly resilient to chronic stress. works,” Laboute said, and added:. “What makes me really excited about this discovery is that it may be important for people’s lives. That’s what That offered strong evidence that GPR158 could be a therapeutic gets me up in the morning.” target, he said. But what sent the signal? Ten million Pakistanis, including children, lack safe water after floods SIX MONTHS AFTER catastrophic floods struck Pakistan, more Photo: UNICEF/UN0702907/Zaidi than 10 million people, including children, living in flood-affected areas remain deprived of safe drinking water, leaving families with no is associated with half of all child deaths. In flood-affected areas, more alternative but to drink and use potentially disease-ridden water. than 1.5 million boys and girls are already severely malnourished, and the numbers will only rise in the absence of safe water and proper Even before the floods, despite the country’s drinking water supply sanitation. system covering 92 per cent of the population, only 36 per cent of the water was considered safe for consumption. The floods damaged most “It is imperative that the voices and the needs of children in Pakistan of the water systems in affected areas, compelling more than 5.4 million are prioritised at all costs and that children are placed at the heart of all people, including 2.5 million children, to rely solely on contaminated post-flood recovery and resilience plans,” said Fadil. water from ponds and wells. Six months after the devastating floods, more than 9.6 million “Safe drinking water is not a privilege, it is a basic human right,” children still require access to essential social services. Unicef’s current said Unicef Representative in Pakistan, Abdullah Fadil. He added: “Yet, appeal of US$173.5 million to provide life-saving support to women and every day, millions of girls and boys in Pakistan are fighting a losing children affected by the floods remains less than 50 per cent funded. battle against preventable waterborne diseases and the consequential n For more information, visit: www.unicef.org malnutrition. We need the continued support of our donors to provide safe water, build toilets and deliver vital sanitation services to these children and families who need them the most.” The prolonged lack of safe drinking water and toilets, along with the continued proximity of vulnerable families to bodies of stagnant water are contributing to the widespread outbreaks of waterborne diseases such as cholera, diarrhoea, dengue, and malaria. At the same time, open defecation has increased by more than 14 per cent in the flood- affected regions. To make matters worse, the lack of proper toilets is disproportionately affecting children, adolescent girls and women who are at added risk of shame and harm when defecating outdoors. Unsafe water and poor sanitation are key underlying causes of malnutrition. The associated diseases, such as diarrhoea, prevent children from getting the vital nutrients they need. Moreover, malnourished children are more susceptible to waterborne diseases due to already weakened immune systems, which simply perpetuates a vicious cycle of malnutrition and infection. In Pakistan, malnutrition 6 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

news Aucklanders asked to share flood images for future storm response RESIDENTS IN NEW ZEALAND are being asked to provide their Photo: Auckland Council images and videos from the recent flooding events to support the planning and preparation for future weather events. better understand where and how we should grow, in order to build more resilient communities,” Vigar explained. Auckland Council has launched flooded.co.nz as a secure and private crowdsourcing portal to collect photos, videos, stories and location A scope of work was recently approved by the council’s Planning, details of the flooding Aucklanders experienced or witnessed during the Environment and Parks Committee to investigate the effects of the storms earlier this year. recent extreme weather events and what implications these might have on its infrastructure and policy settings. Auckland Council’s Healthy Waters Head of Planning Nick Vigar n For more information, visit: aucklandcouncil.govt.nz said: “Aucklanders who experienced the flooding hold a wealth of knowledge that is valuable to us. We have data that shows us where it flooded, but that doesn’t tell us where the water came from and how people and properties were impacted along its route. “Often when flooding is investigated, the water has already receded so Aucklanders sharing their ‘in the moment’ images and experiences with us will contribute to our future response to storms. “We will use this information to inform the council’s flood hazard strategies and help ensure we have the most up-to-date and robust data and flood models to support communities at risk of flooding.” “The information provided by Aucklanders will support the wider recovery work happening in response to the Auckland Anniversary floods and Cyclone Gabrielle. The effects of these events are far- reaching and it is important that events like these are used to help us Ukraine’s healthcare system takes Network launched for further blows missing migrants WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTION “The use of landmines is THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE are dying crossing deserts, of health facilities in Ukraine has widespread in frontline areas, but to rivers and remote areas in the Americas; the International severely impeded access to healthcare. see them placed in medical facilities Organization for Migration’s (IOM) Missing Migrants Project Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has is shocking: a remarkable act of documented 1,433 deaths in 2022, the highest number since urged all warring parties to uphold inhumanity,” according to Vincenzo the project began in 2014. international humanitarian law and Porpiglia, MSF project co-ordinator in their obligations to protect civilians. Donetsk region. In an effort to save lives, improve data collection and support the families of survivors, IOM’s Global Data Institute (GDI), Following the escalation of war in “It sends a clear message to those which oversees the Missing Migrants Project, in partnership February 2022, MSF teams assessed who come in search of medicines or with key stakeholders launched the first Network on Missing the medical and humanitarian needs of treatments: hospitals are not a safe Migrants in the Americas to strengthen regional knowledge and people in 161 towns and villages in the place,” Porpiglia said. capabilities to address the increasing trend of migrant deaths Donetsk and Kherson regions to provide and disappearances. medical assistance to those living near MSF medical teams have also the frontlines. Despite requests to work discovered that several medical “When people have access to safe and regular migration on both sides of the frontline, their teams facilities located in former Russian pathways, that increases the likelihood that they can were only able to operate in areas under occupied areas in both Kherson and contribute to economic prosperity at home and in their places Ukrainian control and observations are Donetsk region had been looted, while of destination,” said GDI Director Koko Warner. limited to those areas. medical vehicles including ambulances had been destroyed. Inside two of “Lack of such regular pathways often has tragic results and By mid-2022, MSF medical these facilities they saw weapons and is a lost opportunity. The objective of this network is to create workers had already witnessed attacks explosives. a knowledge and work community that shares updated and on healthcare infrastructure. In two reliable data on missing migrants to contribute to evidence- separate instances, in Mikolaiv in April Accounts from healthcare workers based policy,” Warner said. and in Apostolove in June, its teams and patients who lived under Russian witnessed the apparent effects of cluster occupation indicated severe restriction The exact number of those who die transiting through munitions on hospitals, leaving medical of access to essential medicines, this region is unknown, but records compiled by the Missing activities suspended for several days and treatment or medical facilities. These Migrants Project indicate that between 2014 and 2022, at effectively depriving patients of access accounts were corroborated by MSF’s least 7,495 people lost their lives in the region. to medical care. In three other cases on medical records following 11,000 October 8, 11 and 15, 2022, MSF teams consultations (November 2022 – The network also aims to strengthen national and also discovered the presence of anti- February 2023). regional capacities for the collection and exchange of data personnel landmines inside functioning on deaths and disappearances of migrants. It seeks to issue hospitals, in areas previously under Patients also reported that surviving recommendations to prevent them, search for and identify Russian occupation in the regions of medical facilities and pharmacies were the deceased, and provide support and reparation to their Kherson, Donetsk and in Izyum. looted and that the supply of medicines families. It will also facilitate the creation of strategic alliances was not systematically assured by among the participants by conducting joint investigations and occupying forces. other initiatives. n For more information, visit: www.iom.int Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 7

Governing through a permacrisis Anita Punwani explores the path to achieving the UN’s sustainable development goals in the context of environmental and social governance, keeping in mind the global crises prevalent today P ermacrisis was chosen by Collins Dictionary as its word living in the Global South. of the year for 2022 and is defined as: “An extended A permacrisis also presents challenges to those period of instability and insecurity, especially one resulting from a series of catastrophic events.” Use of with responsibility for governing through such times. the term in everyday language reflects a feeling that Organisations across the public, not-for-profit, and society has faced significant challenges over the past corporate sectors are increasingly being held to account few years. This is unsurprising considering the events for the way in which they handle matters such as the we are witnessing, including the cost of living, energy, climate crisis, modern slavery, LGBTQ+ rights, and the health, security, migration, and environmental crises. issues raised by the Black Lives Matter and #MeToo The communities most affected by such crises are often movements. It is not only the organisation that is the poorest and most vulnerable in society, notably those being held to account; the pandemic illustrates how figureheads – politicians, civil servants, chief executive 8 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

comment officers, chief scientists, and chief medical officers – are goals agreed in Paris at COP21 to control emissions, limit viewed to be held personally responsible for the way in global warming, and reach net zero by 2050. Investors in which crises are handled. the financial services sector have shown a lot of interest in the green agenda, which has been a major force for When there is a lot of instability and fear for a long change in this area. time, it makes the way we are ruled very clear. There has been considerable public discourse regarding The case of a large oil company reporting its highest the way institutions have handled events during this profits in over a hundred years, double the corporation’s permacrisis. This is reflected in how widespread it has profit in the previous year, illustrates that not all become for individual members of civil society to voice communities have been adversely affected by the energy their concerns, notably by taking to the streets to protest crisis. In the UK, an environmental law charity filed a in cities across the world. Protesters sometimes enter lawsuit against the board of directors, saying that they prominent buildings and deface their contents. Seated broke the law by not putting in place an energy transition on the benches of the public viewing gallery in the UK strategy that met the goals set out in the UN COP21 Parliament, I experienced environmental protestors Paris Agreement. clambering over me and other members of the public to superglue themselves to the glass facade to bring public Alongside this driver, another new word is increasingly attention to their concerns over the lack of action on used in public discourse: “greenwashing.” Greenwashing climate change. can be described as the attempt by an organisation to use deceptive techniques to present itself as environmentally Greta Thunberg and other young people have used friendly. Volkswagen’s use of a device fitted to their their voices to bring attention to the global climate cars to enable them to pass nitrogen oxide emission crisis. Their voices are often heard in the mainstream tests (when actual emissions when driving could be 40 media and on the agendas of board and committee times above the allowed levels) resulted in damage to meetings in the public, non-profit, and corporate sectors. the company’s reputation and financial income. This Climate activists have been assisted by social media and sort of behaviour erodes public trust in those with the community networks in disseminating the message that responsibility for governing and the arrangements they the international community is not on target to meet the have in place. Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 9

Metamorworks | Adobe Stock Governance arrangements are often focused on the organisation and its leadership behave in handling providing assurance to certain groups of stakeholders, day-to-day matters as well as handling crises. My reason notably funders and regulators. Mature governance for focusing on Environmental and Social Governance arrangements recognise that good governance means rather than the conventional wording for ESG – namely accounting to a wider range of stakeholders, which environmental, social, and (corporate) governance – is may include beneficiaries and members of the public. that, in my mind, the latter reinforces the disconnect Social media can present challenges for organisations between the environment, society, and the governance of that are held to account in a public forum, but it also organisations. I believe we need to take a holistic view of provides a means of communicating with the public and our collective responsibilities for handling the interrelated strengthening the reputation of the organisation. global crises the world is facing, including the risks posed to our health, biodiversity, climate, rivers, oceans, and land. There has been a lot of recent focus on three letters of the alphabet: E, S, and G. In many cases, these three In support of this mindset, future-oriented leaders need letters have been used to demonstrate that an organisation to foster a culture that ensures management and staff take is responding to the climate crisis, modern slavery, equality, day-to-day responsibility for understanding the needs of a diversity, and inclusion. While not strictly greenwashing or range of different stakeholders, including the beneficiaries failing to act on these key issues, some organisations are not of the products or services the organisation provides and making the necessary changes in the timeframe required to members of the public. The mindset should recognise that handle the nature of the crises we face. The delay in taking these responsibilities extend to having oversight of the climate action is a prime example. actions of the organisation’s partners, including those in its supply chain. Actions include ensuring the quality and I define environmental and social governance (ESG) safety of products or the responsible disposal of toxic waste as the governance of purpose-driven organisations with generated in the process of producing these products. the intention of fulfilling their social responsibilities in an ethical and sustainable manner. In this mindset, the matter of intergenerational justice is also a key issue. Future generations are also key This form of governance requires those in leadership stakeholders. positions to take their responsibilities to society and the environment seriously. Underpinning this is the need With this approach, leadership can be at the forefront of for a change in mindset, notably for some in leadership achieving the 17 UN SDGs. positions to shift from a short-term, profit-driven mentality to a longer-term, purpose-driven mentality and one in Author which the way in which the organisation behaves is widely considered to be ethical. ANITA PUNWANI is an independent governance Many purpose-driven organisations are choosing professional with experience across the public, to align their own goals with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The UN SDGs address not-for-profit, and corporate sectors. She holds a MSc several aspects of the social issues already discussed. True alignment involves changing the way in which in Global Governance & Ethics from UCL and represented the UK in the development of the international governance standard, ISO 37000, ‘Governance of Organizations’. She chairs the ESG group at the Institute of Risk Management 10 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

Emergency planning: reflection pFraonmdeHmeiactrhersopwontose As the Emergency Planning Society (EPS) celebrates its 30th anniversary, EPS Fellow and long-time member Arthur Rabjohn reflects on careers in the resilience sector A career in resilience is never dull, and no one could ever say it isn’t varied. In my career, I have had the privilege to be part of included the Ambatovy Mining Project, the Pearl GTL teams preparing for and responding to incidents whose effect Project, from construction to start-up, and post-conflict has been felt locally, regionally, and globally. While some have reconstruction with the Basra Gas Company. been ‘mega-projects’ and others more localised, what they all have in common is the need for the team working on them to Closer to home, working as an emergency planner in the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead, I’ve also found myself supporting a royal wedding in Windsor and be professionally prepared, properly qualified, and relevantly an avian influenza outbreak affecting the Queen’s swans. experienced – in other words, match-fit. Working in Portsmouth, I worked with the team supporting I began my career as an officer in the Metropolitan Police both D-Day 75 and the Portsmouth Op Transmission (UK), and my work in emergency planning and response in relation to Brexit. And when the pandemic hit, I was really began there. As well as being part of teams involved in working with an institute involved in supporting the UK policing public order and performing specialist operations, Testing response and the clinical trials of the AstraZeneca I was also part of a team involved in the review of major vaccine. We had to maintain full business continuity while incident planning for Heathrow Airport following the Tenerife the institute was targeted by multiple conspiracy theorists. air crash in 1977, the deadliest accident in aviation history. The role we perform as Following the incident, all major airports reviewed emergency planners is a very responsible one and one their worst-case scenario plans for incidents at airports that affects people’s lives, rather than in the air. As a result of that work, the UK’s first dedicated victim recovery and identification team was created. As part of that team, I worked the Lockerbie PA103 crime scene and the Marchioness disaster, the latter of which made the cover of Time magazine (but only I know potentially significantly it’s me behind the coveralls, gloves, mask, and goggles). Following a motorbike accident, I left the Met and The role we perform as emergency planners is a was able to use the skills and experience I’d gained as a very responsible one and one that affects people’s lives, police officer in the emergency management field, joining potentially significantly. That’s why continued learning and Reading Borough Council as an emergency planner. I making sure we’re match-fit for those roles are so essential. joined in 1999, at a time when the world was gearing The continuous professional development I do through up for Y2K and the ‘Millennium Bug’ and the county the EPS and other professional organisations such as the of Berkshire was in the process of becoming six unitary International Association of Emergency Managers (IAEM) authorities. The town also hosted the Reading Festival and and the Institute of Civil Protection and Emergency Womad events, as well as rugby and football at Madejski Management (ICPEM) is a really important way of testing Stadium, so it was a busy time. myself against the key competencies and standards, both as As is always the way with emergency planning roles, set by the EPS and internationally. those day-to-day plans and work had to be undertaken at What is most rewarding is when all of the planning and the same time as major incidents; during that time, those preparation come together. I facilitated the development of included the Ladbroke Grove rail crash, the Field Road the large exercise of Operation London Bridge during my sinkhole, the fuel crisis during the tanker drivers’ strike, time at Windsor. By the time the operation was required, Foot and Mouth, and flooding. I also worked on Op I had moved on to my current role at Tesco. When I look Fresco, both for the Berkshire Fire Brigade Union strike back now and see how well the process we exercised and response and the national Fire Brigade Union strike the planned for so carefully went, particularly with the eyes of following year, as well as the Civil Contingencies Office the world upon it, I am so incredibly proud to have been Working Group on Business Continuity Guidance. part of that team. Then I was tempted over to the ‘dark side’ to work in Author consulting, and that work has taken me all over the world, ARTHUR RABJOHN is a Business Resilience Manager including Madagascar, Qatar, and Iraq, employing me on at Tesco where his work streams include support to anything from employee safety during the Arab Spring and communities in emergencies and the civil contingencies Sars pandemic to mega project emergency response. These partnerships Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 11

dAerrveesltoepdment A proactive mindset in crisis pre-planning is key to an organisation’s return to normality says Matthew Porcelli A s crises unfold, it is common to be trapped in a sense would, in turn, limit movement and the probability of of tunnel vision to ensure that organisations and their success for escape. Just as the United States Department assets remain intact. News and other media outlets often of Homeland Security and the Federal Bureau of fuel the flames of panic and pessimism. Civil unrest is Investigation endorse the ‘Run, Hide, Fight’ methodology a term that is often assigned impetuously. For instance, during active shooter events, it is also similar to periods of peaceful demonstrations are often seen by asset owners civil unrest. Moreover, there is a lot to say about staying as the precursor to criminal mischief or delinquent put until the threat dissipates. behaviour. Furthermore, these mindsets are often what shape certain facility policies and procedures to protect Training, training, and more training are crucial prior an organisation’s primary assets, its employees. to the lockdown phase, especially if there is high personnel But what happens if the threat of civil unrest is real turnover. When preparing for lockdown, security and a facility goes into immediate lockdown? What if the personnel must know way ahead of time who can order the unrest occurs in an instant during non-business hours? lockdown. Laypersons believe that the security manager, Private security officers are contracted to remain at many director, or supervisor have the authority to order the locations 24 hours a day, seven days a week, regardless of lockdown; in actuality, this is often misunderstood. The whether operations are normal or abnormal. Asset owners individual(s) in charge of the contract security team can and managers either accidentally or intentionally overlook ensure that the lockdown is carried out, but the order the wealth of real-time knowledge that frontline security to initiate the lockdown mainly comes from the facility officers and teams possess for ensuring the protection of owner(s) or property management team. If one examines property and personnel during times of pending or actual a Class A office building, which might house many civil unrest. This does not always mean in the physical tenants, there are usually lockdown procedures governed sense. Most private security teams are unarmed and are by companies leasing space or floors. This adds another neither equipped nor obligated to come into contact layer to securing the facility; however, locking down the with individuals engaged in civil unrest. Again, the best first points of entry to the facility is paramount to deterring weapon that the private security department can offer is or delaying aggressors, which is why a facility’s frontline knowledge: knowledge of the facility and incident reports security teams are so important. to acquire data that will assist in strengthening the asset(s) security framework. Ambassadors of Solace Security officers are often seen as silent sentinels during Fear, panic, and uncertainty are typical thoughts during the course of a typical day. Private security operations are civil unrest. This is amplified when imminent danger to becoming more like customer service, so officers try to life and property is a possibility. Security officers must look like concierges when people are entering or leaving quickly change hats from customer service security a building. In the event of civil unrest, private security officers to emergency response security officers. In an officers will fulfil three crucial objectives. ever-changing world with the threat landscape becoming The first is to lock down the asset(s) completely to create more diverse and unstable every day, it is important that a hardened target that may still be damaged. The second prior to, during, and after an incident of civil unrest, includes acting as solace ambassadors to those who remain security officers keep those on-site calm and assured that on site (such as tenants). The third has to do with providing everything is being done to ensure safety and real-time real-time updates to emergency services, clients, tenants, communication. Remember, security personnel assume a and visitors (where applicable). certain level of risk; it is part of their job. However, tenant Self-preservation is key during this phase. If occupants employees and their guests’ knowledge of how to cope in of the security team, clients, tenants, and visitors, are dangerous situations is usually lax. Furthermore, security able to evacuate the facility safely during times of civil teams must have supplies readily available to ensure that unrest, it is highly advisable to do so. However, there are not only they are sustained during the lockdown duration times when evacuations are not possible. For example, if a but that they also have resources available for others. group of delinquent protestors are converging on property Leadership mode must also kick in and be of individual that is situated on the edge of a waterfront and the obligation. For instance, if the lockdown occurs when hostile group is blocking the evacuation route, it would security management is not on site, the designation of not make much sense to issue an evacuation because this leadership might fall on one of the security officers. As mentioned before, it is imperative that security managers 12 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

comment and their supervisors constantly train and retrain new and and the data produced via incident reporting, assist in existing security officers. mapping out vulnerability assessments for a facility. In the unfortunate event of civil unrest where a lockdown is This is the most important function of frontline security initiated, switching into the leadership role must be fluid. staff because accidentally omitting what appears to be However, this cannot be achieved without proactivity the most trivial of details can have catastrophic results. from the frontline security management level. Shelter- Emergency services such as police, fire, and medical in-place areas, properly working equipment (such as services must have the situational picture painted for flashlights, first aid kits), and additional resources such them prior to their arrival to ascertain the number of as food and water are foundational, but not the end- units, supplies, and response to an instance of civil unrest. all. Frontline security management must proactively, In the event of a lockdown and damage being inflicted and always through its hierarchy, partner with and on a built asset, law enforcement and the military need openly communicate suggestions and information to the as much information as possible to ensure that they can leadership, which makes up the culture of the facility. safely arrive on site, set up an incident command post, and Property management, engineering, and chief security receive situational reports from those within the facility. officers (CSOs) are a good start; however, external These updates are also very important to the client(s), contacts are equally beneficial. This includes, but is not stakeholders, property owners, and the private security limited to, surrounding merchants, law enforcement, and team’s upper management. As civil unrest unfolds, this no mutual aid from surrounding facilities. longer becomes a concern just for those locked down in the facility. Updates to upper management will be required, A proactive mindset is key to the pre-planning stages and questions need to be answered. of crisis management and will make the difference in an organisations’ return to normality. Relaying pertinent information during high-stress situations does not necessarily come naturally to many Author individuals. Frontline security officers range from backgrounds in prior employment with law enforcement MATTHEW PORCELLI MSc, CPP, F.ISRM, MSyl is a safety and the military, those aspiring for careers in the criminal justice and security sectors, and those who are and security manager based in the US. Porcelli is also the looking to ensure a steady flow of income. Regardless of background prior to employment, security managers New York Chapter Chair of the Institute of Strategic Risk and supervisors must ensure even doses of training and proactive involvement of the client(s), internal security Management (ISRM). He’s a part of CRJ’s Advisory Panel departments, and even the C-Suite, when merited. There is no doubt that a lockdown during civil unrest can be uncertain and frightening. Regardless of the amount of training one has had, keeping oneself calm can be a challenge, but ensuring others remain calm as well elevates situational stress. Frontline security teams, with the facility knowledge they possess Hurca! | Adobe Stock Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 13

A kidnap negotiator’s guide to leadership in crisis Emily Hough explores Order out of Chaos by regulating your emotions, as well as understanding a crucial fact: “It’s not about you. It’s always about the other Scott Walker, delving into negotiation, conflict, side, which is why we must first seek to understand before being understood.” and tools that work in other situations… Walker explores the power of emotions and the need T here is a plethora of books that seek to apply the skills to recognise and regulate them, as well as delving into the acquired in military, policing, security, and other mindsets of people who have survived long-term hostage disciplines to business and leadership, particularly in situations and went on to live happy lives afterwards. crisis or high-stakes situations. Some of the contextual juxtapositions in a few of these books have been somewhat tenuous. Not so with this book. “Life is a negotiation,” says Walker in his preface, immediately drawing the link between communication and negotiation and adding that: “Words matter.” The author is an experienced kidnap for ransom negotiator, having helped resolve more than 300 cases along with incidents such as piracy and cyber extortion. Walker spent 16 years as a Scotland Yard detective in the UK, engaged in covert, counter-terrorism, and kidnapping operations. Today, he works with organisations, government departments, and private individuals to negotiate the release of hostages around the world. Importantly, Walker uses his experience to develop an understanding of what makes people think, feel, and act, specifically in times of adversity, conflict, and uncertainty, which are three defining words of our world today. Order Out of Chaos immerses the reader in all facets of negotiation, peppered with illustrative cases of kidnapping and extortion he has been involved with. As Walker notes, thankfully few people will ever have to face a kidnapping situation. However, this book intends to help leaders and teams understand and use: “The proven tools of successful crisis negotiation.” Divided into five sections, the first chapter introduces the foundations to being a successful negotiator and communicator, which, he says: “Begins in the mind.” Walker shares three techniques that he says are crucial to developing a powerful mindset to communicate and negotiate effectively, whatever the circumstances. “Regardless of where in the world the negotiation is taking place, kidnappings are not usually resolved by technology but by highly effective communication between one person and another, back and forth until a deal is struck. “This is only possible if you can manage your emotional state and keep a level head when everyone else is losing theirs,” he continues, explaining the concept of a Red Centre as a place deep within all of us that can be tapped into when faced with unexpected or unpleasant situations. This involves taking control of your internal state and 14 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

Andrii Zastrozhnov | Adobe Stock He also examines emotional intelligence (EQ), along yourself and your relationship with others, which is key to with the science of stress and its effects on a person, both sustained high performance and outstanding leadership physically and mentally, before exploring and addressing and negotiation.” myths about empathy. Here, I found his words particularly interesting when he describes the difference between Empathetic behaviour is the desire to first understand empathy, compassion, and sympathy. “Empathy is a doing before being understood. Walker comments that, word,” Walker notes. “It’s something you do in order to unfortunately: “Often the default culture within many tune into another person’s world… It’s how you manage workplaces today involves people competing with one another, protecting their silos, budgets, or resources, rather Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 15

than focusing on deep collaboration with others towards person says to your own experience – advising, and achieving a common goal or outcome; namely, adding analysis paralysis, which is a topic that the CRJ has often more value to their clients and customers than anyone else discussed over the years. Walker comments: “You have too does, thereby creating an extreme competitive advantage much information and detail, which, in turn, can cloud and dominating their particular industry.” your thinking during the conversation. It’s another form of avoidance too; always seeking more and more information The chapter is filled with tips and exercises to further in order to delay the inevitable.” This chapter also outlines the reader’s understanding of themselves and others. what the author terms ‘resistance points’ – essential in any Further on, in Chapter Three, Walker develops the negotiation in any context. “It’s not just a case of us simply importance of empathy and compassion: “Both allow playing hardball in order to stroke our egos,” Walker says. us to connect with people by taking their perspectives What resistant points do is: “Manage the other side’s into consideration, all while making better decisions that expectations and signpost them to where we want the influence others. This is particularly important in times of negotiation to end up.” crisis, conflict or uncertainty. The last chapter is something that I think every single “Yet, there is a difference between the two, and it’s reader in the world can relate to: Negotiating with difficult important to understand this, especially from a negotiation people. “It’s a fact of life that you will encounter many or leadership perspective. Being aware of this difference is people through your work or at home who you might what either creates that supportive, empowering workplace classify as ‘difficult’. Others may even think the same of culture and closing meaningful deals with long-term clients, you,” Walker notes. “So, if you can’t avoid these people, or failing to challenge poor performance and experiencing emotional burnout.” In hostage negotiations, cognitive Walker uses his experience to develop empathy is important, enabling the negotiator to understand an understanding of what makes people the other person’s perspective and reflect that understanding think, feel, and act, specifically in times back to them: “Without the burden of actually feeling of adversity, conflict, and uncertainty, similar emotions to them.” Again, in Chapter Three, Walker which are three defining words of our notes that empathy is a powerful part of being human: “But, world today. left unchecked, it can get in the way.” what’s your best strategy for dealing with them, and Chapter Two, ‘Preparing to win every negotiation,’ particularly, how do you have effective conversations and continues the theme of looking inwards and learning negotiations with them?” how to take things in stride, however overwhelming the circumstances might appear. Walker presents three The author gives useful advice on treading the fine line techniques, including the proven ‘Train hard, fight easy’ between feeding the ego of the person you are negotiating concept, as well as ‘Focus on who, rather than how’ so how, with while being mindful of giving them space to save face. establishing a battle rhythm, and immediate action drills. When dealing with difficult people, therefore, cognitive empathy is essential. This chapter seeks to develop anticipation and visualisation – both of success and of what could go wrong This chapter also examines planning and risks, which, as teambuilding and Red Teaming. Walker also emphasises in this context, also involve ‘difficult’ conversations, the importance of planning in terms of preventing burnout something that many of us tend to avoid. Walker provides and becoming overwhelmed. some useful tips on assessing the risks inherent in a difficult conversation, along with ways of mitigating these risks After examining the importance of developing the within a negotiation context. These include: Tolerating the right mindset and preparing oneself and one’s team risks; treating the risks; terminating the conversation; or for negotiating, the next chapter examines some of the transferring the risk. There are many gems to be found in psychology that underpins negotiation. As the author this chapter. says: “You will learn the practical tools, grounded in neuroscience and forged in real-life negotiations, that you Finally, presenting his conclusion and a five-step action can apply in everyday life.” Walker looks at the science plan, Walker comments that: “We seem to live in a world behind negotiation, including right- and left-brain thinking more divided than ever, from politics, race, and gender to and techniques to reduce stress. Here, he describes various climate and sexuality. The pragmatic world of the centre breathing techniques, cold therapy, and, of course, the vital ground has given way to tribal extremes… There has importance of sleep. never been a more pressing need for you to improve your negotiation and leadership skills to help guide not only Listening is another critical point that Walker makes yourself but your people through these challenging times.” when he emphasises: “Being able to master the skill of l Order Out of Chaos by Scott Walker, is published by active listening is fundamental if you want to collaborate Piatkus, an imprint of Little, Brown Book Group, with, influence and persuade people anywhere, any time, ISBN: 978-0-34943-501-5 on anything,” before enumerating the five levels of listening – an area I found particularly compelling. Techniques to Author deal with highly emotional people involve dealing with their emotions first, because: “They’re physically unable to EMILY HOUGH is Editor Emeritus and Founder of the listen and understand what you’re saying.” Crisis Response Journal Walker then turns to common mistakes made in negotiations in Chapter Four, including how to overcome subconscious personal barriers and organisational blocks. Unconscious personal barriers to effective communication make for an interesting read; these include, among many others, identifying – referring to everything the other 16 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports



Polycrises and extended crisis: Communication strategies for the long haul Amanda Coleman explores the challenge of managing a long running crisis situation in her book 'Crisis Communication Strategies' E very crisis has a number of phases, but before the Covid-19 bouncing back from setbacks. People are increasingly likely to pandemic, people had come to expect they would last just a question authority or the messages that come from those who few days, weeks, or a couple of months. With globalisation are tackling a crisis. This puts additional pressure on those and what has come to be defined as 'polycrisis,' we can managing a crisis. Communication has to be persuasive, expect to be managing challenging situations for many trusted, and authentic, and even then it may not hit the mark. months or even years. So, as a crisis develops and time goes on, what do we need to do, and do we need to do At the heart of managing a long-running crisis anything different with the communication? situation, or living with increased risks and threats, is Polycrisis seems to be the word of the moment in a making it part of mainstream activities. It can no longer world of turbulence and uncertainty. The term appears be something that is left to the emergency planners to have been first used in 1999 by Edgar Morin and Anne or the crisis response team. Everyone in a business or Brigitte Kern in their book Homeland Earth: A Manifesto organisation will have to find ways to be aware of the for a New Millennium. They speak of ‘interwoven and problem and the activity that is put in place so they can overlapping crises,’ which we see in the world today with climate change, a cost of living crisis, health challenges, and terrorism, to name a few persistent threats. What this also means is that we are facing being in a state of crisis for longer and extended periods of time. In addition, things that happen many thousands of miles away can quickly have an effect closer to home. Technology brings us all closer together. This was seen in an email error at a medical practice in the UK, which instead of wishing patients a 'Merry Christmas' told them they had Stage 4 cancer. Within a few hours, it made headlines around the world. Communicators must navigate a crisis against a backdrop of polycrises, globalisation, and improved connectivity. What we need to face this and ensure we can manage these problems over a longer period of time is patience, determination, and resilience. Patience is essential, as the development of the crisis and the fact that it is going to take more time to manage it are outside the communicators control. They can assist in responding to it, but there is no magic wand that can make it disappear. So, you need a positive attitude to stay focused on getting through the crisis, getting back on your feet, and then building for the future. Gift of the gab Being a communicator while managing a long-running crisis is exhausting and can put pressure on your mental health and wellbeing. We witnessed this firsthand during the Covid-19 pandemic. As the weeks turned to months, and the months turned into years, it took its toll on everyone. For those developing communication, it has required a certain amount of determination to complete the job and continue to have an effect, as well as resilience to keep 18 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

book review provide ongoing support. The conflict, uncertainty, and n Mood: You cannot run when everybody else is walking. threats facing us all are great, and crisis management can If the public mood and tone are stuck in the crisis, any no longer be someone else’s problem. attempt to move forward with communication will be criticised. It is easy to be labelled 'tone deaf' if you are out There are six essential elements for any communicator of step with what people are concerned about, where they to remember when they are faced with a crisis that runs on are on the crisis journey, and what is happening in the for a long time. world around you. n Strategy: A crisis communication strategy needs to n Creativity: Crisis communication is often seen as a be in place and updated regularly to take account of any hard and colourless realm of communication. Creativity changes in the situation or response. Anyone involved in is important to help people find their way through the the response needs to be aware of any amendments to the crisis and is even more critical when the situation takes approach to communication. place over an extended period of time. You need to be n Evaluation: It is often overlooked when able to use your skills to keep engaging people with what communicating about a crisis. Instead, people focus on is happening. This is the communicator’s opportunity debriefing the response and activity. But in order to keep to step back into the comfort of the usual approach to the strategy up-to-date, it needs to know what is working promotional work. and why, what needs to change, and what change has been brought about due to previous communication. Rise to the occasion n Consultation: Listening to voices outside of the There are many challenges that exist, from changes in business is essential. It will support the evaluation and personnel that will happen as the crisis runs into years ensure that the communication is sensitive to the public to the residual damage to an organisation’s reputation mood and tone, as well as assisting in the development of if it is seen as ‘crisis-hit’. Having the right resources in inclusive communication. place will mean the difference between continuing to n Focus: It is easy to lose focus when a crisis rumbles on manage the situation and letting it run away from you. for a long period of time. Keeping connected to the issue, It also requires the organisation to make it part of the the response, the feedback and what the future may look recruitment and promotion processes. People who join like is critical. This is when we have to build management the business or move into new roles have to understand of the situation into our day-to-day communication work, their responsibilities in relation to the situation. We can policies and processes. see the challenges this brings with the Kateryna Kovarzh | Adobe Stock UK's Post Office's prosecution of sub- postmasters and a failing computer system. Senior leaders and communicators have changed over that time, so how did they ensure continuity in the response? It will be something to consider when we see the outcome of the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry. When a crisis happens over many months or years, we have to keep learning. We have to keep asking questions. We have to keep listening to what those affected are saying. We have to keep questioning what we are doing and if it is the right thing at the right time. We have to keep adapting and being flexible in our approach to accommodate any changes in the situation. The systems and processes need to be in place to log what is done, why, and what effect it has. We can then use data and insight to recognise trends and get ahead of how the crisis is developing. In the era of the polycrisis we have to ensure that crisis management plans and crisis communication strategies are ready to be used over a long period of time, which could even be many decades. A long-running crisis does not have to derail an organisation if it is prepared to put resources, time, and effort into creating a response and communication strategy that has longevity. We are all having to learn how to live in a state of crisis, or a time of polycrisis, and this means changing the way we look at communication and how we respond. Author AMANDA COLEMAN is a Crisis Communication Consultant and Former Head of Corporate Communications for Greater Manchester Police, UK. She has more than 20 years’ experience in crisis communication, including leading the police communication response to the Manchester Arena terrorist attack in 2017 Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 19

tChreisjiosuarlnoenyg In the last article in the series based on her research, Beverley Griffiths shows how important it is for emergency management to have a living ethical framework As the evidence illustrates, the moral distress being felt need to be given insecticide, and fragile ethics should within emergency management needs recognition and be tended and nurtured to bloom. Here I look at the crucial support for moral courage through an ethical research around these root causes and issues, which living framework. The root causes of long standing issues need to be tended to by the profession’s ethical living such and poor communication and decision-making framework. I also examine the need for further study in this area, not only for the emergency management profession’s development, but in other sectors, as well as in supporting the requirements of the international (British) standard BS ISO 45003: 2021 psychological health and safety at work. As has been said before in this series, emergency management is at a turning point. The intricate dynamics surrounding emergency management serve as an organic breeding ground for moral doubt and conflict, which in turn creates tensions that have an effect on the level of risk society is willing to take and the harm done. The literature identified many ethical and broadening challenges, requiring high standards of conduct, ethical decision-making, and empathetic leadership. It also identifies how past emergencies illustrate ethical dilemmas and moral compasses used or not in serving the community. Why must we understand complex human responses? Recent research into moral distress, in conjunction with BS ISO 45003: 2021 psychological health and safety at work, has resulted in the development of guidelines for mapping psychological risks. Moral uncertainty should be a reasonable expectation for those 20 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

ethics who experience complex ethical issues in practice. The environment, and lack of support). Secondly, there are multitude of rivalling requirements allows no time for the personal barriers, such as fear of job loss, poor skills, meaningful reflection on the complex moral aspects. a lack of ethical knowledge, and the fear of unpleasant Therefore, there is a need to ensure this is understood experiences reoccurring. The research dug a little deeper, through supporting guidance, training, and support acknowledging that traits of introversion, a lack of sense mechanisms before there is no time. of responsibility, being insensitive, a lack of motivation, and inadequate self-confidence are found to hinder moral Moral distress among responders is not to be ignored; courage. The ability to be guided by a sense of authentic this is best described as knowing the morally suitable meaning and purpose contributes to work satisfaction, course of action or making a judgement, despite co- professional fulfilment, and personal wellbeing. Such workers creating obstacles or having the inability to act ongoing calibration and resilience will be required upon the suitable course. This can give rise to distress, throughout a person’s career. Exercising moral agency, posing dilemmas for individuals and collective moral setting healthy boundaries, holding realistic expectations, responsibilities. Although most of the research is in maintaining hope, and gaining ethical competence can large part derived from health care, which is arguably offer important opportunities to work through moral highly resourced to support these issues, there is a lack distress experiences and build capacity for moral courage, of research among emergency responders. The field beginning and ending with vulnerability. has inherent moral endeavours, as found in my own research, and as such, the ability to be morally attuned Moral distress among responders is not increases. Moral distress leads to poor communication, to be ignored. Described as knowing poor decision-making, reaching extremes of resource the morally suitable course of action or loss, or even supporting long-term health issues. If making a judgement, despite co-workers unattended, these psychological wounds can, over creating obstacles or having the inability time, lead to feelings of failure and of not making a to act upon the suitable course difference. This line of thinking can evolve into a deep- seated moral crisis, even burnout. It must be stated that This is concerning as it shows these problems within these are mainly due to the contributing factors of our public sector organisations occur daily. These issues are yet feelings and behaviours, namely, the system(s) around to be explored more thoroughly in the public and private us, rather than individuals’ weaknesses. This has been sectors. Report after report has identified communication alluded to in Mike Drayton’s work, which illustrates and decision-making as issues. We have yet to understand how diverse teams often fail owing to factors such as the deeply rooted, natural human psychology and the daily differing backgrounds or cultures, or not sharing core organisational barriers that enable moral courage. values, communications, and thinking styles. Many of these behaviours are being seen in the field, whether There are psychological defence mechanisms to in day-to-day operations or, more worryingly, in in consider, such as ‘splitting’, where there are feelings of times of response, particularly if there is a lack of moral being on one side or another, depending on whether courage or systems to support speaking up. Nevertheless, our beliefs support or resonate more with one side. more worryingly is the evidence of those who follow The human ego and hubris, which can be developed to without the moral courage to speak up, perhaps due to varying degrees (childlike behaviour in some), are another the way they feel, like a child, or self-doubt (Imposter issue to be managed. In my research findings, I made syndrome). It would certainly be a line of research worth the suggestion that understanding how hubris and ego following to understand why decisions have been made affect responders can become barriers to communication or not, or why people have behaved the way they did or and decision-making and that there needs to be more didn’t. There is certainly more we need to understand immediate honesty in bad decisions or courage for people for the profession to improve individuals’ development, to act against them. provide support in times of need, and enable a truer understanding of why. Suggesting it hangs on defensible decision-making for all throughout the planning cycle, not just response, one Moral distress has never been more relevant. However, participant stated: “Hardly the easiest thing to do, but the it is only currently, as with academia, focussed on the precise thing to do.” This example supports studies on health care sector. Research is starting to identify how the the ethical mirage, or the misconception of individuals’ moral challenges of emergency response give rise to moral ethicality. There are ways of helping, but it is about distress, including in the author’s own work, although there understanding and supporting ourselves individually and is still some way to go in furthering this. It is, however, as managers to be a part of a system that can raise the critical that the field be made aware, with the discussion blinds and help us see. The participants observed that the starting on support. focus on understanding these psychological root issues and ethics had been missing from the Joint Decision Model It’s important to look at the other side of the coin, (JDM) and the Joint Emergency Service Interoperability which is moral courage or confidence, both already have Principles (JESIP). This was followed by the suggestion been mentioned as the most important trait for dealing that there is a need to understand how emergencies affect with moral distress. Moral confidence comes from a people and to have compassion for them. People are often personal moral compass that can be trusted to help unprepared for situations that hit with varying degrees of one navigate the sometimes treacherous ethical terrain speed and severity. of complex issues identified within organisations, and individuals. The first are organisational barriers, such as a lack of reward systems, a lack of power, and dominance (transactional analysis: parent/child, suppressive Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 21

Human psychology is complex and still being unravelled Moral distress has never been more by scientists, so we must be alert to new, progressive, relevant. However, it is only currently, conflicting, or even aged science that is still linked to as with academia, focussed on the supporting the profession’s development. There is more health care sector to behold in understanding why the continuous issues of communication or decision-making are found wanting in the continuous reports of failing, we must address the many a post-crisis report. root causes by understanding human and organisational psychology and developing support for both. A framework Applying a moral foundation to strategic foresight is for ethical living is crucial to this strategic foresight, as is important. I mentioned earlier about the organisational learning from hindsight. barriers to moral courage and how the strategic values of an organisation or for that matter, a profession, are critical Globally complex risks are increasing. Emergency to supporting change, empowering professionalism, and management is not dissimilar to other professions whose supporting resilience. It’s the right thing to do, so why work affects the lives or livelihoods of those they serve. are we not doing it? For the reasons listed above (fear, dominance, etc), if the profession is to break away from 22 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

ethics Jaroslav Machacek | Adobe Stock Ethical behaviour is at the heart of shaping the value of for a living ethical framework (CRJ 16:4), the dilemma the field to society. More than ever, there is a need for of choice with ethical theories (CRJ 17:1), and then the ethical actions, decisions, leadership, and behaviour to questions in emergency management to try to find a be understood, identified, and managed. The research starting point for a living ethical framework (CRJ 17:3). has established that there is an overdue need within Then, the next article (CRJ 17:4) questioned how and policy and practise for both an aspirational and rule- what is needed to develop and manage this ethical living based ethical framework that encompasses professional framework for emergency management. This piece is now behaviour. This will then embody daily deliberations, concluding with this final discussion on moral distress, assisting in judgments, decision-making, actions, which illustrates the necessity for a professional ethical diplomacy, and leadership. code of conduct. Determining a living ethical framework requires Author thought and effort from those involved in supporting premeditated or intentional choices, requiring resources BEVERLEY GRIFFITHS is a Senior Lecturer in Emergency to deal with the complexity and provision of daily use. In the previous articles in this series, we looked at the need Planning and a member of the CRJ’s Advisory Panel Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 23

Tackling future global challenges: Three leadership lessons executives can learn from the past Mostafa Sayyadi and Michael J Provitera argue that finding an applied solution to future global challenges is a common interest point for all humans across the world T his article presents the key leadership lessons from past There is a need to guarantee broad co-operation global challenges in order to battle future crises better, between universities, institutions, and organisations alleviate the suffering of the people affected by these crises active in the field of environment and climate change across the world, and build a more stable future for them. through more grants and funding. Such further For example, climate change is a global challenge. The collaboration between politicians, universities, and nightmares increase in Australia with higher temperatures, climate change-related institutions could lead to extreme droughts, and flash fires – a phenomenon that technological innovations. These technological appears to include California as a cousin of Australia. innovations can then create opportunities to California is appearing to resemble Sydney, with further replace new energy with fossil fuels. heatwaves, less rain, and an early end to winter. The The political realm is so real today that a similarities between what happened in the Sydney bushfires partisan agreement would help nations and in 2020 and what happened in the San Gabriel Mountains the world. The key leadership lessons of in California are so great that one can’t tell which is which. the past global crises are necessary to Former president Barack Obama’s visit to Australia overcome the climate change crisis that in 2014 to attend the G20 Summit and his inspirational threatens sustainable development. speech at the University of Queensland were a step forward for the two territories working on climate change in co- The first lesson has to do with operation, which began to break down some barriers and heeding expert opinions. Global develop more scientific and practical co-operation in this crises taught us how to fight climate area. Perhaps if this collaboration could increase, then the change more effectively. People problems associated with this threat would be mitigated. look at fossil fuels differently And now, President Joe Biden’s decision to increase fossil since the Ukraine war. We fuel exports to European countries must not ignore the hope that many world political super challenge of climate change that threatens the lives of and business leaders have all human beings on our planet. Collaboration is necessary learned from the Covid-19 and can contribute to sustainable development and provide crisis. The pandemic a better future for all territories affected by climate change. killed millions of people David Attenborough, an English broadcaster and natural around the world and historian, describes this crisis as: “The biggest threat gave political and modern humans have ever faced.” business leaders a The financial benefits of investing in fossil fuels and the rude awakening. preference for short-term profits over longer-term benefits Important lesson are great ailments; meanwhile, our planet is suffocating. As learned: we must researchers, we feel that the short-term financial benefits heed expert are not more important than the challenges that threaten opinions human survival. Indeed, capitalists and politicians have not yet realised the importance, seriousness, and urgency Virtosmedia | 123rf.com of this threat. We must care about the land as a home for survival, development, and even financial gain for all its inhabitants. To achieve this intention, political will is also necessary to overcome the challenge of climate change. 24 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

solutions carefully. In the US, one of the most important statements Many modern-day thinkers look pessimistically at the President Biden made in his speech was that he would be steps taken so far, and even consider the improvement of willing to take the vaccine publicly as soon as Doctor Fauci climate conditions to be dependent on lowering global said it was safe, in an effort to boost public confidence. Now consumption. We take a step forward and argue that the it is time to implement this leadership lesson in battling the future leadership of the US, by adopting more effective climate change crisis and make better use of climate change policies and investing more in the field of renewable and experts for macro-political and economic decisions. Expert nuclear energy, can play an important role in subduing opinions can prevent wrong decisions, provide positive the emergency produced by climate change. In order to personal experiences, and increasingly improve perceptions. implement policies to address issues such as deforestation and soil erosion, there needs to be scientific assistance, Another important lesson is finding a way to become increased academic funding, and co-operation with more sensitive and aware. As we face the energy crisis countries like Brazil and the US, which are significant contributors to these problems. Afforestation could be one today, sensitivity to environmental change has grown solution to these environmental issues, and the proposed to become more of a concern than ever. Covid-19 actions could help facilitate the implementation of policies revealed to world political and business leaders the to address them. importance of the butterfly theory, which showed how a seemingly small phenomenon can have a Callous asphyxiation profound effect on political and economic systems The earth is being put under a lot of stress, and we need to around the planet. The world’s political and act quickly to stop deforestation and soil erosion. California business leaders are becoming more sensitive and has lost many forests in its recent fires, and the growth of soil aware of events and their consequences for the erosion in this important US state is growing at an alarming company or country under their leadership. rate. The policies of the next US Government may be better Now it is time that political and business and more effective if it follows the path set by the Biden leaders across the globe become more sensitive administration. The expansion of forestry and the increase than ever to the consequences of the global in scientific and academic co-operation from scholars with super-crisis of climate change on their countries such as Brazil, which has played an important companies and economies, so they can adopt role in the spread of the climate change crisis with the effective strategies and policies to battle the destruction of the Amazon, with the aim of slowing down climate change crisis successfully. The task this destruction of the Amazon, can have an important of environmental activists here is to focus effect on our fight against the climate change crisis. on the climate consequences and highlight them in order to increase the level of The future president of the US can play an important sensitivity of political and business role in expanding the use of electric cars instead of gasoline leaders to facilitate responses cars. Policies such as the expansion of battery charging to this crisis. centres for electric cars, especially in the state of California, The third important lesson is to the state most affected by climate change, or incentive focus on long-term consequences policies for families who replace their vehicles powered by rather than short-term issues. This gasoline with electric ones can make the role of the future is better understood today when president in building a better world more prominent. taking stock of the energy crisis. Partisan co-operation and the minds of the electric car Many countries lost hundreds eccentrics must come together to create an affordable and of thousands, and have come to economical electric automobile. terms with the crisis, realising the long-term dangers of dependence Climate change is just one example of future global on Russian oil and gas through challenges. Business leaders across the world can apply international co-operation these lessons learned and prepare for the future. These and greater investment lessons can help leaders prepare for many crises that may in alternative energies. occur much sooner than expected. Let us manage future Expanding international crises before they are too late. co-operation between countries and companies Author is needed to grow investments in emerging MOSTAFA SAYYADI is a management consultant at and cleaner technologies. International co- Change Leader Consulting, Inc in San Diego, California, operation and investment are USA. He works with senior business leaders to effectively warranted. develop innovation in companies and he helps companies – from start-ups to the Fortune 100 – succeed by improving the effectiveness of their leaders. He is a business book author and a long-time contributor to business publications and his work has been featured in many business publications Author MICHAEL J PROVITERA is an Associate Professor of Organisational Behaviour at Barry University in Florida, an author of the book titled Mastering Self-Motivation published by Business Expert Press Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 25

Maximising impact: How relief funds can boost ESG initiatives In today’s evolving marketplace, organisations must satisfy many stakeholder groups, including employees, customers, and investors, to maintain reputational value and heightened business success, says Douglas Stockham I ncreasingly, Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria are used by investors to screen potential As workers demand more flexibility and better investments based on a company’s behaviour as part of treatment, it becomes increasingly necessary for sustainable and socially responsible investing. This, among organisations to demonstrate how they take care of their other reasons, has made ESG initiatives increasingly important own team members. This is where social initiatives come to organisations and their extended stakeholder networks. into play. Social initiatives can take many different forms, including promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), Each criterion involves its own guidelines and key areas investing in workers’ well-being, improving labour policies, of focus. For instance, environmental criteria consider how promoting pay equity, volunteering in the community, and an organisation affects the planet, including how much even establishing relief funds. energy it uses, how much waste it puts out, the resources it Relief funds can provide financial assistance to an requires, and whether it implements any policies to address organisation’s team members in the event of an unforeseen climate change. The focus of this criteria is an overall hazards or personal hardship. When an organisation reduction in the organisation’s carbon footprint. establishes a relief fund, it is demonstrating that it cares Whereas the social criteria of sustainable investing about the well-being of its team members and their families. consider how an organisation manages its relationships And not unlike other methods of first response, like with the people and communities it is involved with. boots on the ground or non-perishable items or material This includes how the organisation treats its employees, necessities, by sponsoring a relief fund programme, customers, suppliers, and those in the communities it does the organisation is preparing ahead of time to support business in. Social’s focus is on the effect an organisation individuals who are affected when the unexpected occurs. has on the people involved with it and how those people In the case of a relief fund, this support takes the form of view the organisation in return. essential financial assistance that provides breathing room Meanwhile, governance criteria consider how an on the path to recovery. organisation is operated. This involves the organisation’s leadership, how executives are paid, shareholder rights, Relief funds as financial first response internal controls, audits, and more. The focus is placed on Multiple catastrophic events across the globe in recent how a business is operated by those in charge. years highlight the need for relief funds as a less visible, It follows that each organisation has its own ESG but still highly effective, means of socially conscious first initiatives specific to its unique business model; nothing response. Even 2023 itself is already highlighting the is one-size-fits-all. However, sustainable decisions are at criticality of relief. Economic struggles, natural hazards, the core of all ESG initiatives and are becoming more and ongoing public health crises are all contributing important than ever. In fact, global sustainable investment to a growing number of individuals and families facing is estimated at more than $30 trillion (or £24.9 trillion). unforeseen hardships. Consumers are, without question, paying closer attention In January, extreme winter weather in areas of the US to the all-around influence an organisation has as it and around the world was responsible for scores of deaths. conducts business. Buffalo, New York, received more than 50 inches of snow and In the last few years, more than 47 million workers experienced hurricane-force winds, which resulted in 37 across the US have left their jobs in what has come to be people losing their lives. Similarly, northeastern Japan known as the ‘Great Resignation’. Most of these individuals experienced severe winter storms that brought around left their employers because they sought a workplace 30 inches of snow, leaving 17 people dead and 93 more with more flexibility, they wanted a more rewarding and injured. In the southern US, a tornado outbreak produced a fulfilling position, or they wanted more of a commitment whopping 70 tornado reports across seven states, most notably to social effect by the organisation. In an ever-changing one tornado that ripped through Selma, Alabama, killing at world, social effects have become increasingly important to least six people and devastating the historic downtown. employees – often a key deciding factor when looking for a Likely the most striking this year in terms of natural job and/or deciding to stay with a company. hazards are the monumentally devastating earthquakes 26 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

relief stress that hazards and hardships put on those within an organisation, allowing them to stay focused on recovering from the event. Third-party relief fund administrators are resourceful and fearless when it comes to making sure that people who need money get it, no matter what obstacles are in the way. Fund administrators can ensure the regulatory-compliant co-ordination of grants to relieve organisational stress and the quick delivery of much-needed monetary relief. By establishing a relief fund, an organisation can act on its social initiatives and assist members of its team affected by natural hazards and other hardships. Relief fund grants can not only help affected individuals pull through difficult times and start on the path towards recovery, but they can also help further stakeholder-required ESG efforts – all while enabling the bottom line to continue to thrive. Feodora | Adobe Stock and their Author aftershocks in Turkey and Syria, DOUGLAS STOCKAM is the President of the Emergency where the death toll has now surpassed Assistance Foundation 50,000 and left millions homeless. Looking ahead, we can only expect more of these disasters to occur, as climate change is contributing to natural hazards happening more frequently and becoming even more powerful. This has resulted in more frequent and severe storms, wildfires, and other natural hazards, which can leave communities devastated. Inflation, economic struggles, natural hazards, and personal hardships are undoubtedly affecting employees stateside and across the globe. Many will identify with at least one of the listed issues, if not more. Launching a relief fund can provide critical support for team members who need it most. It can help foster a sense of community and resilience within an organisation and help meet sustainable, social-specific ESG criteria that are so important to key stakeholders. It’s always been important for companies to treat their employees well, but in the last few years, given the growing emphasis of organisations’ overall ESG initiatives on their reputational and investor success, coupled with the worldwide hardship seen in recent events, there has been an increased need to take care of team members. Establishing a relief fund is a great way to do just that. In the aftermath of a disaster or other hardship, an organisation needs to be able to help affected team members rebuild and recover from the potentially devastating effects. A relief fund can boost morale, allow for internal communities to contribute directly to the support of fellow team members, and alleviate the Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 27

INEGMA-E2: mFuutsutrestraerstiltioednacye Lisanne Siebel-Achenbach and Harri Ruoslahti take a look at the methodology, tools and expert pool for the evaluation of EU civil protection exercises A n important part of civil protection exercises is a well- (UCPKN), which was established in December 2021. The planned, thorough evaluation that uses the same criteria consortium consists of scientific and practical partner and scientific standards. It is the methodological basis for organisations. Seven different organisations are currently documenting and analysing best practices and procedures, involved, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs (DSU) as well as identifying emerging needs for readjustment. of Romania, the Disaster Competence Network Austria At the same time, such evaluation ensures that exercises (DCNA) and Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH reflect the changing needs and priorities of the civil (AIT), Laurea University in Finland, ITTI Sp z o o (ITTI) protection community. By systematically capturing the from Poland, the Federal Office for Civil Protection lessons learned in exercises, evaluations are central to and Disaster Assistance (BBK), and the University of the effectively developing the capabilities of responders Bundeswehr Munich (UniBw), both based in Germany. and disaster managers to deal with real-world disaster INEGMA-E² started in January 2022 and has a project scenarios, the complexity of which is constantly increasing. duration of 18 months. The International Network of Evaluators and Guidelines for a Methodological Approach in Exercise The project is based on an approach to developing Evaluation (INEGMA-E²) project is funded by the novel, standardised, science-based evaluations. It aims to European Union within the framework of the Union Civil increase the quality of exercise evaluation with a focus on Protection Mechanism (UCPM). The project was launched goal orientation, replicability, and documentation. The under the Union Civil Protection Knowledge Network theoretical baseline of the project is based on exercise types, exercise evaluation concepts, and exercise evaluation 28 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

resilience methodology. According to the European Commission, At this point in time, the project is in the home stretch, exercises within the UCPM are classified as discussion- with the last few months remaining. Currently, the surveys or operations-based exercises. Examples of discussion- of the competence requirements for evaluators, which based exercises are tabletop games, workshops, and were distributed in the fall of 2022, are being analysed even seminars. Operations-based exercises can be drills, and the feedback process has started. In a two-wave functional, command post, or full-scale exercises. Both Delphi panel, experts from academia and practice are classifications of exercises aim to bring relevant experts identifying and weighting the competencies and skills that together to train them on the different aspects of regional, are critical for the sound conduct of exercise evaluations. national, and European-wide civil protection systems. Subsequently, training priorities as well as key points for the competence profile of evaluators are derived. This will An exercise in which the organising consortium lead to an evidence-based development of the training members, the exercise participants, and other stakeholders concept and the virtual pool of evaluators. In parallel, act can be examined as a system. Exercise organisers and the results of INEGMA-E² will be presented in a series project members can design exercise systems in ways that of scientific publications, which will contribute to the promote achieving their purposes. Exercise evaluation on academic discussion on the topic of exercise evaluation. a system-level can aim to capture factors that influence In the coming months, until the end of the project at the these systems. These may include, for example, project end of June 2023, work will continue on evaluation tools, management, exercise preparation, scenarios, on-site methods, and the establishment of a pool of evaluators. security, and factors that influence operation cultures. In addition to the project activities, INEGMA-E² Organisational structures are embedded within participates in various civil protection community events these systems. These are the devices and mechanisms across Europe throughout the duration of the project by which the exercise system is operated and managed. for the presentation and dissemination of results. The Organisational structures outline how the goals of project was presented at the Humanitarian Networks and the exercise are achieved through specific activities. Partnerships Week in Geneva in May 2022, at the Disaster Furthermore, as part of the structures, tasks are directed to Research Days in Austria in mid-October 2022, and at the fit within the overall system. The evaluation of structures Nicosia Risk Forum in Cyprus in November 2022. in an exercise looks at information flows between system parts and subsystems, which may include rules, EU civil protection exercises were used to show and roles, methods, technologies, applications, and exercise talk about results, as well as to get feedback from people participants’ responsibilities. with a lot of experience judging. The team participated in the Domino exercise in France in May, the Balance Organisational processes include the activities that exercise in Montenegro in October, and the Profound establish the goals of an exercise. Exercise evaluation at exercise in Dunaujvaros in autumn 2022. The results of the process level focuses on how human interactions and the workshops and discussions during these events will exercise operations are carried out. Communication and feed into the project’s activities and outputs. With this co-operation in coping with the exercise scenario and the early integration of the project into EU civil protection quality of documentation are factors that can be used to exercises, INEGMA-E² aims to establish itself in the civil evaluate activities within the exercise system. protection community to benefit from the experience of the evaluators and add value to the whole community. INEGMA-E² uses this system-based approach as a theoretical lens to assess the various levels of civil In Germany, the Federal Office for Civil Protection protection exercises and to systematise evaluations, as these (BBK) recently held the first Research for Civil Protection three evaluation concepts of system, structure, and process (Forschung für den Bevolkerungsschutz) congress. At this can help examine the complex interrelationships between event, the project shared its most recent results. Besides the multitude of factors in civil protection exercises. that, an evaluation workshop was organised during the planning meeting of the Formatex23 exercise in Austria Launchpad to apex late in January. In the combined meeting with Formatex23 With this as a baseline, the project follows three main and INEGMA-E² the methodology and possible evaluation pillars. The first involves developing a robust and versatile process of the exercise were discussed. In the exercise itself, evaluation methodology for a range of different types of which takes place in September 2023, further outcomes of disaster response exercises. The second step is to look at the the project can be tested. By providing structured results tools that are already available for collecting and analysing for future exercises, it will significantly contribute to the data in exercise evaluation, as well as to create and test new continuous improvement and comparability of exercise tools and methods. The third involves the creation of an results on a European and national level. international pool of evaluators with low-threshold access for all relevant actors within the EU civil protection process Author and a specific training concept for exercise evaluators. LISANNE SIEBEL-ACHENBACH is the desk officer for the So far, the project consortium has analysed existing evaluation methods and conducted literature reviews and Union Civil Protection Mechanism, Division of International expert interviews, which form the basis for the findings on existing exercise types and evaluation concepts and Affairs at Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster methods. In order to improve understanding of the end- user requirements and integrate them into the future- Assistance, Germany oriented development of the project, two workshops with experienced evaluators were held in the summer of 2022 Author to discuss different evaluation perspectives regarding civil protection exercises. HARRI RUOSLAHTI is the principal lecturer in security management research at Laurea University of Applied Sciences, Finland, where he teaches security management and research, development and innovation Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 29

The resilient mindset: Adapting and bouncing forward Robert Hall argues that personal resilience is essential for bouncing back from life’s shocks and stresses, and that it involves a mindset of changing responses to difficulties I n any discussion of resilience, we tend to focus on the allows a person to adapt more successfully to any new set of external elements that surround us, such as organisations, circumstances – in effect, to bounce back and forward. This communities, families, the environment, etc. Rarely invariably involves some personal change. As Buddhists do we focus on the internal elements, that is, our own proclaim, resilience is the process of changing our responses personal resilience and what makes each of us a resilient to difficulties. It is a mindset; it is undoubtedly a journey, person to varying degrees. Even when we do, resilience not a destination. is often interpreted in terms of our outward-facing The following two examples show, in their own separate capabilities, as witnessed by the plethora of managerial ways, the personal resilience of individuals to challenging guides on the book shelves. circumstances. The first is the real-life story of Sir Ernest We are generally poor at being aware of our own Shackleton, a Polar explorer in the early part of the 20th personal resilience and at taking steps to nurture it in the century. Shackleton’s expedition tells us a lot about his face of life’s inevitable shocks, stresses, knocks, and falls. own resilience mindset as well as the way he expressed The general assumption is that through experience alone, that in terms of leadership and comradeship. The second by some process of osmosis, we hopefully become more is a fictitious story of a young waiter, John, in London in resilient, allowing us to bounce back from adversity. That the present day. This example is used to show that being seems to be the typical way of learning. resilient isn’t just about dealing with disasters and other We are tested when we have to confront issues or big changes. It’s also about dealing with everyday life incidents in our personal lives, such as unemployment, and modern pressures. Sir Ernest Shackleton set sail for divorce, ill health, bereavement, or, more often, difficult the Antarctic on August 6, 1914, in a ship aptly named relationships at home Personal resilience stems from Endurance. His aim or in the office. We was to carry out the first hope that our inner both nature and nurture. Some crossing of the southern coping mechanisms continent. However, soon will help us find people are naturally more resilient after arriving in mid- some form of positive than others, but the attribute January, the ship became resolution so that trapped in pack ice 97 can be enhanced with suitable we can readily education and training, plus miles short of the intended recover and rebound. landing point and 1,200 Occasionally, there is miles from the nearest a mental-health price experience outpost of civilisation. to pay: Covid-19 has After ten months adrift, shown how some young people can be less mentally robust the ship eventually sank, leaving the crew of 27 marooned and had previously been resilient than was thought, but for 20 months. If it were not for Shackleton and four men CEOs are not immune from succumbing to the rigours of a sailing in an open boat for 16 days to South Georgia to get highly stressful appointment. help, the entire expedition would probably have been lost. It would be wrong to assume that a person – any more The expedition was one that ultimately fell far short than an organisation – can be resilient to all types of of its overall goal. Yet, it provides a model of personal disasters or misfortunes. We can be resilient to extreme resilience that exceeded every expectation and helped weather, but less so to digital interruption. An inhabitant Shackleton’s exploits enter the annals of history as one of Dhaka (Bangladesh) may be resilient to being flooded of the most remarkable stories of survival and ‘successful but distraught when facing with food shortages. Similarly, failure’. Resilience is about surviving, thriving, and an individual in a Syrian refugee camp may have better learning from experience. survival skills than someone in rural Suffolk (UK). This Shackleton believed that: “A man must shape himself notwithstanding, resilience can be a generic mindset that to a new mark directly the old one goes to ground.” 30 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

resilience Freepik.com Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 31

Here is a recognition that no plan survives contact and by, for example, seeking a new position, then greater that it is important to adapt to changing circumstances. resilience may follow. This requires flexibility and agility to grasp whatever opportunities arise, as well as an inner conviction and Personal resilience stems from both nature and nurture. belief that a solution is possible. Shackleton’s inner strength Some people are naturally more resilient than others, but was expressed to the crew by way of humour, compassion, the attribute can be enhanced with suitable education trust, and determination. and training, plus experience. Unfortunately, we do not give the topic the attention it deserves and, hence, allow One expert on human development says that a person’s people like John to miss out on opportunities for personal resilience is made up of seven parts that are all important improvement. He could also be one of many involved and work together: competence, (self-)confidence, in any whole-of-society resilience effort in the face of connection, character, contribution, coping, and control. national disruption. It would be easy to add to the list words like collaboration, communication, creativity, and even critical thinking, but Any skills programme must be purposeful and one stands out above all: courage. structured. It does not necessarily involve outward bounding, rigorous exercise, or team building. While Courage reflects a strength of character that shines that may be appropriate in certain circumstances, a through the gloom. It can be infectious. The escape route quieter transference of resilience skills in the workplace chosen by Shackleton after losing his ship reflected his or classroom may be a step in the right direction. Topics steely courage and endurance when there were few realistic alternatives. Unknown and untapped energy can emerge in The general assumption is that through such demanding situations. It certainly enabled Shackleton experience alone, by some process of to rescue all his men from a life-or-death situation. osmosis, we hopefully become more resilient, allowing us to bounce back The heady stuff of an explorer is uncommon. Rather, from adversity the everyday life of most individuals is distinctly more mundane, but it also requires resilience, particularly in like awareness (self- and situational), self-reliance, today’s world of work. John is an imaginary waiter in a flexibility, trustworthiness, and resourcefulness are all café in central London. This is his first job after graduating worthy of teaching in a developmental but practical from university, and he is making the minimum wage. He syllabus. It is important to remember that beneath the can hardly afford the rent on his one-bedroom flat, never surface, resilience must be underpinned by a set of core mind the heating and commuting costs. He also suffers values or morals that help drive the human spirit and from Type 1 diabetes. are central to a person’s identity. These are harder to teach and learn. Here is a situation in which it could be hard to be resilient. The prospects for John in terms of career Professor Ruth Crick has summarised the deficits: progression, home ownership, and medical insurance “Most of our formal education and training systems don’t are not great. His case typifies many. Yet, there are two produce these [resilience] qualities as learning outcomes aspects of personal resilience that are relevant in this case: in their graduands. They are perfectly designed to get resistance and robustness. the results they get – which is successive generations of people who have expert knowledge in a particular domain, The skill thrill who have learned how to pass the test but are not systems Resistance infers a determination or opposition not to be thinkers, complex problem solvers or team players.” blown off course and achieve one’s goals. This persistence is commendable as long as change is grasped when the If we are to improve personal resilience for the next situation presents itself. Such change may well not be generation, we need to exploit this gap and embed a immediate, and the danger is that stubbornness, frustration, resilience mindset and skills into our future education and or even anger at the lack of opportunity will negate any training programmes across the board. seeds of resilience. John could readily slip up here. Sources Robustness reflects John’s ability to maintain self- worth and his personal values in difficult situations. n Morrell M, Capparell, S (2003): Shackleton’s Way, Nicholas Recognising that circumstances may have an effect on Brealey Publishing. ISBN 1239781857883183; these qualities is called resilience. If John has the innate n Ginsburg, K Fostering resilience. fosteringresilience.com; ability to cope and the mettle to withstand the short-term n A good portrayal of the negative consequences of being difficulties, then he can advance. If he feels valued and within a box of ‘chicken coop’ can be seen in the film, The White appreciated in his job, he is likely to respond positively Tiger (2021); and rise to the occasion, increasing his resilience. Again, n Crick, R (2023): Resilient Mindsets – for a Whole of Society there are no assumptions. Approach to Resilience, resiliencefirst.org. On the other hand, John and others like him may Author feel it easier to conform to and be conditioned by the pressures on them and by society in general, hence being ROBERT HALL is the former Executive Director of reluctant to upset the apple cart for fear of losing their income or their job entirely. He could feel trapped in a Resilience First. His book Building Resilient Futures will box, recognising that escape could be risky, so he decides to accept his lot rather than take positive action. This be published by Austin Macauley later in 2023. The book could impair John’s personal motivation, his mental health, and his creativity, all key aspects of resilience. contains a chapter on personal resilience However, if he can show personal agility and adaptation 32 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

Permacrisis: Time to use the difficulty Andy Blackwell explores what this ‘state’ means for organisations… and how they can use this extended period of instability and insecurity to improve their resilience, performance, and staff morale Police work in the UK is said to be burdened by a lack of experienced officers. According to a report from the F ew would doubt we are in a global permacrisis, and National Audit Office (NAO) that came out in March while the term conjures up negative connotations, it’s 2022, the new officers who were hired to replace the not all bad news. 20,000 who had been cut due to austerity measures since The cost-of-living crisis and the effects of the pandemic 2010 were a burden on the operations of the officers who on employment, pay, and working conditions have led were responsible for training and developing them. The to a global wave of disputes, protests, demonstrations, report goes on to say that the Police Uplift Programme will and strikes in a wide range of sectors, including some lead to an increased reliance on an inexperienced frontline emergency services. Permacrisis conditions have increased workforce. It further notes that by 2023-2024, 38 per cent the risk of civil unrest and public disquiet due to the level of police officers nationally will have less than five years of dissatisfaction and frustration with the behaviour and of experience, compared to 12 per cent in 2014-15. One of performance of governments. The economic hardship the UK’s most respected Chief Constable, Nick Adderley of many people are experiencing is a significant factor in this. Northamptonshire Police, has warned of a “perfect storm” Society is becoming increasingly divided, and debate of a very young workforce and an increasingly violent is being stifled. Conspiracy theories abound, and we society. He claimed that there was a danger of police appear to be in the ‘age of outrage.’ Several high- forces having a disproportionate and unbalanced mix of profile and damaging cases involving the police and fire inexperienced, very young recruits. This is a particularly and rescue services in the UK have also undermined worrying vulnerability, bearing in mind the frontline role confidence and public trust in the emergency services, of the police in dealing with civil unrest. creating additional challenges as the organisations strive to move forward. Lack of experience, particularly in The consequences of a lack of experience are wide- frontline policing in the UK, is another cause for concern ranging, as can be seen from the public inquiry into the as society becomes more violent. fatal fire at Grenfell Tower on the night of June 14, 2017, Many organisations have suffered from ‘skill fade’ in which 72 people lost their lives. Evidence heard by the as swathes of experienced people left their businesses inquiry revealed that the designers of the Grenfell Tower due to redundancies, restructuring, and, in some cases, refurbishment were selected despite never having carried resignations owing to less favourable terms and conditions out similar work and admitting they were so: “Green on that were imposed on them. The power of experience process and technicality” they would have to undergo should not be underestimated, and loss of experience rapid training. is a very real risk to organisations, particularly when it comes to threat and risk management, where corporate The ‘experience’ challenge is not just affecting policing; knowledge is paramount to identifying, understanding, other critical sectors have been hit too. For example, in and managing risk. Lack of experience has practical aviation, the significant number of redundancies resulting consequences too. Media reporting of an active shooter from the sector’s response to the financial meltdowns incident at a Texas elementary school in which 19 caused by the pandemic has resulted in the loss of children and two teachers were killed cited delays by an much corporate knowledge and experience. Captain “inexperienced” local police chief. The Director of State Chesley Sullenberger, in his bestselling book Miracle Police in Texas also publicly stated that the commander on the Hudson, says: “There’s simply no substitute for at the scene made the “wrong decision” not to breach a experience in aviation safety.” This applies equally to classroom at Robb Elementary School sooner, believing aviation security and aptly describes the problem the the gunman was barricaded inside and children weren’t at sector faces. Recruitment challenges have made it difficult risk. That decision, which goes against established active- for some aviation organisations to return to pre-pandemic shooter protocols, prompted questions about whether operating conditions. more lives were lost because officers didn’t act sooner due to the school police chief misreading the threat. A later Lack of experience affects how decisions are made, report conducted by the Texas House of Representatives especially when it comes to risk management, where the Investigative Committee attributed the fault more widely people making the decisions might not know about some to: “Systemic failures and egregious poor decision making” risks or what led up to them. In such cases, the best we by many authorities. can hope for is that a more cautious approach is taken, but sadly, we can see from previous inquiry reports that this is Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 33

not always the case. As experience grows, we usually see a wellbeing needs to take on new prominence to help people more confident and informed risk management approach develop a resilient mindset. being taken. Risk managers and threat assessors with a lot of experience don’t need to be extra careful. They have the The pandemic has changed people’s thoughts about confidence to act based on their experience. work. Microsoft’s annual Work Trend Index for 2022 reveals that: “From when to go to the office to why work in Sir Richard Branson’s famous quote: “Take care of your the first place, employees have a new ‘worth it’ equation,” employees and they’ll take care of your business,” is sound with 53 per cent of employees more likely to prioritise advice for organisations at any time, but has particular health and wellbeing over work than before the pandemic. relevance in a state of permacrisis. Some people thrive on Meeting these new employee expectations will require a a challenge and enjoy working outside of their comfort mindset shift by leaders. zone. They like constant challenges, viewing them as good development opportunities, and are comfortable taking While some organisations will naturally feel risks. There are others, though, who find such situations overwhelmed by the challenges they face, much can highly stressful, want to avoid risk, and want to stay in their be done during a permacrisis to refocus efforts, spur comfort zone. Since the pandemic, significant restructuring creativity, and build resilience. In Tim Harford’s book, has taken place across many sectors; the pressure on staff Messy – How to Be Creative and Resilient in a Tidy- has been immense; many roles have been combined; teams Minded World, he explains that creativity, responsiveness, have been reduced; and people are frequently assigned to and resilience, the human qualities we value, are integral roles in which they have no prior experience. Employee to the disorder, confusion, and disarray that produce them. Permacrisis states, by their very nature, fit into this category, so we can take advantage of them. Crises often lead to organisations working more collaboratively, as bureaucracy is swept away, silos dissolve, and decision- making becomes more agile. The key is to embed the good practices and lessons learned during such situations so they become business as usual. Sir Michael Caine, the epic British actor, famously gave advice in a much-publicised interview about ‘Using the 3dts | Adobe Stock 34 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

permacrisis difficulty’, which requires a change in mindset that can l Communications – Ensure open and transparent turn a challenging situation into a positive experience for communication across the organisation, with particular everyone. He uses the story of a misplaced chair in his attention to those on the frontline. Debriefing after rehearsal space to illustrate this. While this may appear to traumatic events is essential; be far removed from the challenges of a permacrisis, Sir l Development – Upskilling the existing workforce and Michael said: “There’s never anything so bad that ‘using creating development opportunities will help organisations the difficulty’ can’t be applied.” If we use it only a quarter manage succession planning and hiring challenges; and of one per cent to our advantage, then we’re ahead. We l Mentoring – In addition to contributing to personal and didn’t let it get us down.” professional growth, mentoring increases wellbeing and encourages the next generation of leaders. One thing for certain is that our permacrisis state is going to be with us for quite a while, so we have Authentic leaders will view the permacrisis as an to use it to our best advantage. Lack of development enabler of positive change, believing that careful navigation opportunities is often given as the reason why people through it will enable their people and organisations decide to leave their job. Creating a development not just to grow but to thrive. A strong focus on culture path for them will not only build their experience, and values, learning, and development, all supported by but also help reduce attrition. One of the major employee wellbeing programmes, will be instrumental in reasons people leave organisations is a lack of ensuring people are resilient and benefit from the valuable development opportunities. knowledge and experiences a permacrisis can bring. It can be argued that without experience, there will Anyone can hold the helm when the sea is calm, but it never be true knowledge, and a permacrisis creates will take thoughtful leadership, positive mindsets, and an great opportunities for learning and gaining experience agile organisation to weather the storm of a permacrisis. quickly. We can usefully add to the ancient quote by Simply put, let’s use the difficulty! Publilius Syrus: “Anyone can hold the helm when the sea is calm,” by also including: “but it takes resilient Sources leadership, positive mindsets, and an agile organisation to steer a course through a permacrisis.” n Harvard Business Review (Jan 2023): Managing in the age of outrage, hbr.org; Riding into the future n The Times of Israel (Mar 2023): Uvalde locals fume at There are some straightforward actions organisations ‘inexperienced’ police chief who delayed killing gunman; can take to manage the challenges. The following non- n National Audit Office (May 2021): The police uplift exhaustive list summarises the key focus areas: programme, www.nao.org.uk; l Cultural alignment – Align your organisation’s culture, n Express (May 2021): Police chief hits out at young recruits values, and goals with its people; ‘lacking in life experience’; l Recruitment - Be totally frank with applicants, in n The Guardian (Mar 2020): Grenfell firm admits it lacked addition to the benefits of the role, be open and honest experience in cladding tower blocks; about the potential challenges and difficult aspects of the n Price I (2018): Head start: Build a resilient mindset so you can job, so there are no surprises later; achieve your goals, Pearson Education Limited, ISBN 978-1-292- l Job quality – Focusing on improving job quality and 24380-1; flexibility will help attract a broad range of candidates and n Harford T (2016): Messy – how to be creative and resilient reduce attrition; in a tidy-minded world, Little, Brown Book Group, ISBN: l Reward – Getting the balance right in conjunction 9781408706763; with many of the other focus areas mentioned here will n Caine M (Oct 2018): Use the difficulty, YouTube; help retain existing employees and attract new candidates. n The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (nd): Reward is not just about the salary, but the overall Home, www.cipd.co.uk; benefits package; n Microsoft (2021): Great Expectations: Making Work Work, l Wellbeing – Creating a culture of wellbeing helps WorkLab prevent stress and develop working environments where individuals and organisations can thrive. Good health and Author wellbeing can be a core enabler of employee engagement and organisational performance. This is a collective responsibility, not just a human resource role; Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 35

nASooutnhrAemsiaw'sakillcle?rlhiematwaavetse: rawpixel.com There’s a heatwave incoming for South Asia, and unless drastic measures are taken, this summer could be the hottest yet for the subcontinent writes Lubna Jerar Naqvi 750 million people in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka – B eginning in March 2022, Pakistan and India experienced a live in the poorest and most vulnerable conditions. They two-month heatwave; it was the hottest in about 122 years have been suffering from climate-related disasters over for India since the records began and the hottest April in the last 20 years. 61 years for Pakistan. The scorching weather heralded an even hotter summer According to a World Bank briefing on climate and in South Asia as the mercury rose in the pre-monsoon development in the region: “South Asia is one of the most spring months of March and April and reached 50 degrees vulnerable regions to climate shocks. The region is living Celsius across Pakistan and India. Bangladesh and Sri through a ‘new climate normal’ in which intensifying Lanka also experienced extremely elevated temperatures. heatwaves, cyclones, droughts, and floods are testing the South Asia is home to more than 1.5 billion people. limits of government, businesses, and citizens to adapt.” Half of the South Asians living in eight countries – about 36 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

heatwave This means that a fifth of the world’s population warmer, and there are predictions that the annual average experiences tropical, dry, and temperate climates. temperatures: “Will increase by 1.6 °C (2.9 °F) by 2050.” Temperatures typically rise during the summer; however, it has been increasingly observed that Commenting on the rise in temperature, Arpita heatwaves began early, before summer set in, during the Mondal, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of summer months of March and April. According to the Technology in Mumbai, said if global heating increases by UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) more than Pacific (ESCAP), scientists called this phenomenon an pre-industrial levels, then heatwaves like this could occur early heatwave, which is caused by: “Persisting north- twice in a century and up to once every five years. south low-pressure patterns that form over India during winters when a La Niña phenomenon occurs in the “This is a sign of things to come,” Mondal said. The equatorial Pacific Ocean.” year 2020 was reported as the warmest year on record, according to a 2022 study by Ayushi Sharma, Gerry High temperatures did not happen overnight, they have Andhikaputra, and Yu-Chun Wang. It notes: “Mean developed over the past century. Many warning signs were temperature was 1.39 degrees Celsius higher than the obvious, but no action was taken by local governments. average from 1981 to 2010.” The region began heating up as heatwaves became more frequent, especially in Pakistan and India, with To put this in perspective, if we compared the global temperatures rising to three digits. The high temperatures mean surface temperature to the surface temperatures in Asian countries, we would find that the temperature has South Asia is only going to risen considerably in the region. get warmer, and there are predictions that the annual Unfortunately, future predictions are not good and average temperatures will suggest things are only going to get warmer. For example, increase by 1.6 °C by 2050 the annual average temperatures in South Asia will not only rise by 1.6 degrees Celsius by 2050, but the frequency were not seen as an anomaly, and nothing was done to halt and intensity will also increase. In 2010, India experienced the impending danger. And both countries experienced heatwaves that resulted in the deaths of more than 6,500 countless heatwaves in the past two decades, with the people. The Global Climate Risk Index 2017 showed that intensity inching up every year. five years later, Pakistan experienced a sudden rise in temperatures in 2015, and the heatwave claimed 1,200 lives People living in urban areas are the most affected by the in Pakistan while more than 4,300 died in India. rising temperatures. According to data gathered by NASA’s Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment It is interesting that at the time the heatwave ravaged on the Space Station instrument (Ecostress) on May 5, South Asian countries, more than 3,300 people died in 2022: “A relentless heatwave has blanketed India and France due to high temperatures. The high death toll in Pakistan since mid-March, causing dozens of deaths, fires, both developing and developed countries only shows increased air pollution, and reduced crop yields. Weather the vulnerability and impact of such high temperatures forecasts show no prospect of relief any time soon.” across the world. Ecostress was measuring temperatures from space, and The victims were the most vulnerable sections of society, the images sent back revealed that cities were warmer: like women, children, and the elderly, especially those who “Urban heat islands in Delhi and other parts of North resided in densely populated and congested areas, as we India, with temperatures as much as five degrees higher saw in the heatwaves of 2010, 2015, and 2022. than surrounding areas.” Light it up Fahad Saeed, a climate scientist at Climate Analytics India sweltered through the hottest March in the country in Islamabad, Pakistan, told the media: “We had clear since records began in 1901, and April was the warmest weather, which caused a lack of rain in March and April. on record in Pakistan and parts of India. The effects The rain was substantially lower than normal, about seven have been cascading and widespread. A glacier burst in per cent below normal.” Pakistan in early 2022, resulting in floods that caused havoc downstream. Heatwaves are one of the earliest and most obvious symptoms of climate change. In South Asia, climate- India’s wheat crops, which can’t live in high induced disasters are aggravated by socio-economic temperatures, were burned in the early hot months, and factors like high population density, existing inequalities, wildfires spread through large areas affected by drought- and labour-intensive agriculture, on which the country is like conditions. Such incidents can lead to food shortages heavily reliant. affecting millions in both countries. According to a 2021 study by Fahad Saeed, Carl- The soaring temperatures affected hundreds. People Friedrich Schleussner, and Moetasim Ashfaq, deadly heat are not only affected by heat stroke by being out in the stress might become common across South Asia. One open in times of severe heat. Symptoms of heat stroke are reason is the rise of wet bulb temperatures observed in the sometimes ignored because people don’t know they exist monsoon belt. As temperatures rise, warmer air can hold and, if they do, seldom take them seriously. more moisture. This is because most of the symptoms are generally The Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute associated with hot weather, like hot and dry skin, profuse (MDPI) confirms that South Asia is only going to get sweating, and a high body temperature. These can lead to serious symptoms like confusion, altered mental status, slurred speech, loss of consciousness, and even seizures. Sometimes the situation can become fatal due to heat stroke. Governments both in India and Pakistan have started awareness campaigns warning people about Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 37

these symptoms and what climate change and life. It said: “Increased heatwaves, The 2019 they need to do to protect droughts, and floods are already exceeding plants’ and Indo-Pakistani themselves. animals’ tolerance thresholds. These weather extremes are heat wave across occurring simultaneously, causing cascading impacts that north India and Heat stress is another are increasingly difficult to manage.” Pakistan. fundamental problem in heatwaves, which sometimes Months after heatwaves scorched the country and Image: NASA causes fatal heat stroke. a glacier melted, causing floods, another series of earth observatory Under heat stress, the body catastrophic floods inundated one-third of the country, is unable to cool itself. the aftermath of which was being felt as the Pakistani Normally, the body can cool delegation attended COP27 last year. itself through sweat, but when humidity is high, sweat will It was clear to all that the situation in South Asia not evaporate as quickly, needed immediate action, not only from both countries’ potentially leading to heat governments but also the world. stroke. Large portions of the region are vulnerable to climate People are instructed change and climate-related disasters: stronger monsoons to stay indoors and drink and cyclones; more intense heatwaves and winters, which a lot of liquids, but this is could and will spark food insecurity and public health not possible for everyone. crises, as well as migration, despite not being major Also, those who are indoors contributors to greenhouse gases (GHG). suffer from heat trapped in buildings, especially Pakistan’s contribution to GHG is only 0.43 per cent of as many times the power total emissions in 2013 and 0.67 per cent in 2020, but it is outages increase. During the hottest months, there is a surge in electricity demand, which puts pressure on power grids and leads to breakdowns. Power outages increase, adding to the shortage of water in many areas both in India and Pakistan where electric pumps are used for water. Long power outages, sometimes more than 12 hours at a stretch, along with rising temperatures translate into protests and unrest, and sometimes even riots. Heatwaves can cause illnesses and death, especially to the vulnerable and weak, which include the very young and old, lower-income groups, and outdoor workers. Animals and plant life are also affected, which also affects humans. What makes South Asia’s recent severe temperatures so surprising, as well as the temperature at which a person can cool off by sweating, is that a person in good health can tolerate about 35 degrees Celsius for six hours at wet bulb temperature. The bad news is that South Asia is going to see more of these dangerous wet bulb temperatures in the future, and several places have already reached this threshold. Experts warn that climate change will probably trigger more heatwaves in the future. World Weather Attribution (WWA) found that the probability of temperatures breaking records will increase from: “Once in every 312 years to once in every 3.1 years, owing to climate change... will increase to once every 1.15 years by the end of the century.” A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlighted the direct relationship between 38 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

heatwave suffering from the severe impacts of climate change. India guidelines to limit exposure to heat in order to help workers also remains far below the world average. and others. This was to be done by providing guidance to employers to shift outdoor workers’ schedules away In a statement, India’s Minister for Environment, from these hours and restricting travel on bus rooftops Forests, and Climate Change, Shri Bhupendar Yadav, during peak heat hours. Shifting schedules for indoor announced India’s aim of achieving zero emissions by 2070. workers exposed to waste heat and non-air-conditioned environments may also be appropriate. This would also Yadav said India updated its Nationally Determined involve direct interaction with vulnerable groups such Contributions in August 2022, following calls for increased as traffic police, transit staff, construction workers, and ambition in its 2030 climate targets. India will assume rickshaw drivers to provide cool drinking water and ice the presidency of the G20 in 2023 with the motto ‘One packs with information on how to prevent heat illness. Earth, One Family, One Future’ towards a planet safe for humanity. However, he added that it is not possible for Plans were made to reduce the load on primary health one nation to undertake this task alone and that this is a centres by decentralising care through establishing and collective journey to be undertaken with equity and climate equipping 185 First Response Centres and defining justice as guiding principles. strategies and activities that these stakeholder groups can lead or support to boost self-sufficiency among Containing the chaos The governments of both Pakistan and India took South Asia is going to see more of these immediate measures to deal with the situation. Public- dangerous wet bulb temperatures in the welfare messages were shared on all media, informing future. Experts warn that climate change people what precautions to take during the heatwaves. will probably trigger more heatwaves After the devastating heatwaves of 2015, which caught the communities and leverage local assets to reduce health government off guard and hurt Pakistan's financial capital effects from heat. It would be a good idea to add green Karachi the most, the city's commissioner created and patches and parks in many cities to cool down urban released the Karachi Heat Action Plan in 2022. This plan concrete centres so that heat is not trapped in the told people what to do before, during, and after heatwaves concrete, increasing the temperature. in Karachi. It contained plans for what government and non-government organisations would do to keep people Many governments woke up late to the climate from getting sick and dying because of the heat. The plan calamity, with delayed and, for the most part, inadequate was intended to help enable the public, particularly the most actions taken. In South Asia, although major steps have vulnerable: the elderly, women, children, low-income groups, been taken over the last two decades, the average global slum dwellers, and those working outdoors. temperature has not been slowed down. The plan laid out actions for implementation to ensure Like Karachi, in India, Ahmedabad authorities that the information on weather conditions and heat health developed the Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan. This focused was timely and specific, that organisations had the capacity on raising public awareness to prevent heat-related to respond according to their roles, and that strategies and deaths using television, radio, and newspapers, as well as actions enabled an increase in effectiveness over time. messaging platforms such as WhatsApp, and setting up water stations and cooling spaces. Other measures were also given, such as launching awareness campaigns against heatwaves, sending SMS The plan also included initiating early warning systems alerts and precautions for protection from heatwaves and and inter-agency co-ordination to alert the public to heat stroke in both English and Urdu, creating mobile extreme temperatures; capacity building among health applications for the closest hospital, optimal routes, and care professionals; reducing heat exposure; and promoting red zones, sending push messages (alerts), and creating adaptive measures. posters and graphic media for public dissemination in Urdu and English. South Asia and the rest of the region might have to work together as the climate disasters cannot be tackled After the 2015 heatwave, the Commissioner of Karachi by one nation alone; they require a consolidated and and his partners took specific steps to reduce the number continuous effort. of deaths and health problems in the city. These actions included providing coolers and safe-drinking water at The world has become a global village in more than one different public locations across the city and ensuring that way. The heatwaves in India and Pakistan have revealed a number of air-conditioned ambulances were available at how the developed world can directly affect people living in First Response Centres. less developed countries. An inclusive global climate plan needs to be chalked out that will take into consideration the Other long-term actions that were discussed and needs of all countries. planned included increasing access to cool spaces and shade, designating 'cooling centres', such as mosques, It is obvious that the needs of all countries will differ. They public buildings, and malls, during a heat alert, and/or are placed on different levels of development, and workable providing temporary night shelters for those who didn’t solutions are formed that work in different ways for different have access to water and/or electricity. nations but achieve the same goal: to cure the climate. Another part of the plan included the need to increase Author access to shaded areas for outdoor workers, slum communities, and other vulnerable groups in order to LUBNA JERAR NAQVI is a professional journalist and provide them with relief from the heat by providing night shelters that remain open all day for migratory populations trainer based in Pakistan during a heat alert. One more important step was to set up rules and Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 39

Living in a climate-changed world: Heatwaves, unrest, and violence Evie Lunn discusses the effects of climate change on Europe and the potential for social unrest due to extreme weather conditions and food insecurity I magine you are presented with three possible worlds. The first world is overcrowded, barren, and apocalyptic, with a Hobbesian state of nature where life is nasty, brutish, and short. This is the outcome if climate change is not urgently and co-operatively addressed. The second world is slightly better than the first, but still experiences extreme weather conditions, poverty, and food scarcity, with a likelihood of being displaced. This is the future if we take action to combat climate change, but it’s delayed. The third world is similar to our planet today with some changes, such as rising sea levels and intensified weather, but human wellbeing is comparable to current levels. Achieving this world is possible if we take early and collective action against climate change. However, the third world is fading and disappearing rapidly, leaving only the first world as an option. One thing is for certain: we will be living in one of these worlds within the next century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showed us this vision in 2018 and said that the ‘world’ we end up with depends on how quickly global warming is kept to 1.5°C above pre-industrial emission levels. The longer we take, the greater the amount of greenhouse gases we will have to remove from the atmosphere in order to provide a habitable world for our descendants. And this is assuming that such measures are even possible. The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C was intended to be a forecast of a post-2050 Earth, but World number one isn’t some abstract scenario looming on the horizon. What is so significant about this is that climate change is not only affecting remote regions that seem worlds apart from many of our day-to-day lives. Many of the characteristics of the first world, such as drought, food shortages, extreme weather, and violence, are already playing out in Europe, and around the globe. Last summer, an unprecedented heatwave from North Africa ripped through European countries and left chaos in its wake. Widespread drought resulted in a massive decrease in agricultural outputs, and water levels in reservoirs were at a record low. Wildfires forced tens of thousands of people to leave their homes. One of these fires was the biggest one ever recorded in Spain. Airport 40 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

heatwave runways melted under the sun. Britain issued its first- between heat and social unrest but believes we are capable ever ‘Extreme Red’ heat warning after temperatures in of dealing with the issue socially: “Even if there are London exceeded 40°C, and many countries declared a biophysical, psychological, or biochemical responses in our state of emergency. According to the EU’s Copernicus bodies to heat, I do not accept that changing temperature Climate Change Service, the summer of 2022 was the must lead to war, conflict, violence, assault, robbery, hottest on record. At least 26,000 people died from heat- or crime.” Kelman also acknowledges that the data is related deaths. scattered and that there are many intersecting factors involved in this relationship. When it’s warm, more people The ripple effect was enormous. Many schools told go outside, so there is simply more opportunity for crime. children to stay at home, and a huge amount of pressure was put on health and energy systems. Public unrest Adam Yeeles, from the University of Texas, has was rife, which triggered a resurgence of interest in the similarly found that warmer cities experience more unrest pattern between summer heat and fiery tempers. This is a than cooler cities, and social disturbances tend to increase correlation we have seen before: between 2010 and 2018 in in the summer. This is a correlation rather than a cause- the UK, crime went up by an average of 40 per cent when and-effect relationship, although Kelman has suggested temperatures increased from 10°C to 20°C, and studies that a rise in temperature affects the effectiveness of show that the intensity and frequency of violence generally psychiatric drugs, therefore increasing emotional volatility. rise with temperature. People are literally more reckless in The fact remains that droughts frequently accompany the ‘heat’ of the moment. heatwaves, which can lead to food insecurity, inflation, and damage to livelihoods. This is what triggers public Ilan Kelman, Professor of Disasters and Health at unrest. It cannot be coincidental that there was a spike in University College London, has observed this correlation Tashatuvango | Adobe Stock Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 41

‘cost of living’ protests following the European heatwave of reason to expect politicians to be caring.” Leaders are 2022. Between June and November of last year, there were forever distracted by more pressing domestic concerns, protests over rising prices in Italy, Slovakia, France, Spain, particularly in a post-Covid economy. Climate change is Greece, Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania, and the Czech simply not a priority in a world where everything comes Republic. Inflation is recorded as the trigger for many of down to economics. A huge part of our economy has been these protests, but it is worth exploring what contributed to built on fossil fuels and it’s difficult to think of a solution this inflation in the first place. that doesn’t require a complete reinvention of the political and economic world order. Russia’s war on Ukraine was certainly a key contributor, but failed crops and lower productivity levels as a result It is very important that governments act as soon as of extreme heat also played an important role in driving possible to keep global warming to 1.5°C above pre- up prices. Some public disturbances were caused directly industrial levels. If we continue at our current pace, the by the heatwave, such as the climate change protests in world is on track for a temperature rise of at least 2.5 °C, London and Glasgow in July 2022. and the longer we leave it, the harder it will be to rectify the situation. We all know that transformative systemic This has concerning implications for the future. One change is needed, but is this even feasible? study from Scientific Reports shows that a two-degree increase in average temperatures would increase violent For some, the UK’s Net Zero strategy – an ambitious crime rates by more than three per cent in non-tropical policy pledging to de-carbonise all aspects of the UK areas. This is if other factors remain constant, but it is economy by 2050 – is the kind of action we need, but Ross likely that other side effects of climate change will also Clark, author of Not Zero, argues that this commitment contribute to violence. to achieve net zero carbon emissions will do: “More harm than good.” Reaching net zero requires a complete switch Heatwaves, wildfires, and floods are only going to get to renewable energy, but renewable technologies, as they more intense and frequent. As Yeeles says, our rapidly currently stand, are insufficient to supply the country with changing climate could be: “A ticking time bomb of the energy it requires. social unrest.” The reality is that human activities are warming the planet at an alarming rate, and we are rapidly Between 2010 and 2018, crime went up approaching the point of no return. by an average of 40 per cent in the UK when temperatures increased from 10°C According to the IPCC, late and uncoordinated action to 20°C. Studies show that the intensity is most likely to occur when: “The most extreme events and frequency of violence generally rise affect less populated regions and do not raise global with temperature concern.” It has been repeatedly observed that action is rarely taken unless the issue affects something or someone As a result, the UK will have to outsource energy to nearby and familiar. Humans are seldom equipped with countries with less restrained fossil fuel industries, such as the capacity to extend empathy beyond those who are Russia and China. This perpetuates a cycle of inequality as closest to us, and the suffering of people living outside of global superpowers benefit from their lack of compliance Europe rarely influences the everyday lives of those who with goals of carbon neutrality. reside within its borders. Kelman is more optimistic. While he agrees that some We have seen this with the EU’s differential treatment of protocols, such as the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow refugees, where Ukrainian asylum-seekers are welcomed with Climate Pact, have been: “A complete waste of time and open arms while Syrian refugees are excluded. However, if regressive”, what is important is that change can happen: an extreme case of a climate change-related death occurs “It shows that if we do want to try and get a real agreement close to home, those in positions of authority won’t view the at the international level, scope potentially exists there.” issue as a distant, abstract issue that only affects people far away. The European heatwave of 2022 has shown us that Although Dr Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Lecturer and Senior climate change is happening now and affecting everyone. Researcher in Climate, Policy, and Intersectionality at University College London, acknowledges that power and The issue is that the levels of violence and suffering financial resource management are core forces behind still aren’t quite shocking enough to warrant drastic policy policymaking, she also believes there is cause for hope: change. In fact, after a heatwave in 2003, over 70,000 “Technically, if the public came together, they would more people died in Europe (see CRJ 16:3), but this hold the power to demand change. Those politicians who wasn’t enough to make leaders treat climate change as weren’t behind such a response would lose power due to an emergency. being unable to represent the public’s wishes.” According to Carbon Brief, one in three heat-related We are already seeing progress, especially in deaths over the past three decades was the direct result of environmental corporate leadership. The world’s largest human-induced climate change. In this case, millions of investment fund, Norges Bank Investment Management, people have already died from global warming. has threatened to fire company directors if they fail to take sufficient action against climate change. The billionaire Another harsh reality is that climate activists don’t owner of the sportswear brand Patagonia has pledged win elections. Those who are in power believe that that all profits will go towards saving the planet. Climate their green policies are adequate and proportionate, litigation is on the rise, and activists are admirably while simultaneously introducing policies that are relentless when holding leaders accountable. counterproductive. Government Minister Michael Gove’s approval of a new UK coal mine is a recent example of policies that have been met with a great deal of criticism. Ilan Kelman puts it well: “I have yet to see a government which prioritises saving lives in all decisions. Some do it more, some do it less, but there’s no 42 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

heatwave Jemastock | Adobe Stock Kelman also warns against the hyperbolic fatalism the required response. Leaders will not overcome perpetuated by the media: “The doomerism on climate their political myopia and treat climate change as an change is not scientifically supportable. When we see emergency unless they witness suffering on a seismic headlines about billions of climate refugees and disasters scale and within close proximity. caused by human-induced climate change, that’s actually incorrect […] Even when the numbers are there, even There is no credible pathway in place for an urgent, when the correlation is there, we have to look at causation.” system-wide transformation, and a sustainable world is drifting further and further out of our reach by the Although Kelman acknowledges that such events may second. Unless world leaders work together to implement happen in the future, there is no reason to believe that it is a collective response, we condemn ourselves to an endless already too late to save the world that we live in. summer of discontent. With an ambitious and well-designed plan, climate There is still time to choose which world we end up change targets can be met without collateral damage. with. Let us make sure it’s the right one. But an effective response requires a co-ordinated international effort; this is the issue we cannot seem Author to surmount. The tragic loss of thousands of people dying of heatstroke appears to be insufficient to activate EVIE LUNN is a Global Humanitarian Studies BSc student at University College London Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 43



An avoidable ‘natural’ hazard? The UK is expecting another drought. Robert Field and Albert Weale dissect all the ways this could have been avoidable... I t’s easy for UK residents to forget the intensity of the 2022 heatwave, given that they moved on from the summer protection of water supply and all that it involves. This is as heat to experience a rain-soaked autumn with downpours, true in the UK as it is elsewhere. floods, and rainfall. The threat of widespread drought, multiple hosepipe bans in place, and other restrictions on This begs the question, how can the problem of a water water use in various parts of the country that extended shortage be addressed? Although it is unlikely to be the well into the autumn are now out of sight and out of mind. whole answer, one attractive approach is to put water reuse However, upcoming heatwaves and droughts are serious technology in place. Water reuse, as the name implies, issues very much on the horizon. The UK’s Environment involves treating waste water and returning it, fully cleansed, Agency’s latest warning in February 2023 notes that much directly for public reuse rather than discharging the treated of the UK was still likely to be in drought in the summer water into rivers or the sea. We can replace part of the of 2023, with some reservoirs well below normal levels for natural hydrological cycle with an engineered system. the time of year. The news will, however, not come as a surprise to those Once cleansed, the water from a reuse plant can be familiar with water planning issues in the UK, particularly employed in various ways. Potable reuse takes treated as they affect supply in England. Water shortages for wastewater and turns it into consumable-quality water. This the 2020s and beyond have not only been predictable is done in Singapore, the city-state that is very much at the but have already been predicted. In 2018, the National forefront of the deployment of such technology. In Singapore, Infrastructure Commission analysed the prospects of reused water, badged NEWater, is primarily employed in a severe drought in the UK, estimating the chance of industry since its purity makes it valuable for electronics such an event as being one in 200 each year over the 30 manufacturing. However, NEWater is also used to supply years between 2020 and 2050. One in 200 seems like a reservoirs. Other examples of potable reuse schemes include low number, but, probabilities being what they are, it those in Orange County, California, and Western Australia, implies a one in seven chance of there being at least one where replenishment of groundwater is practised. In these severe drought in that 30-year period. The summer of schemes, purified water is stored in underground aquifers 2022 did not bring the sort of severe drought that the and naturally filtered by the rocks until needed. National Infrastructure Commission had in mind. But it should be just the wake-up call needed to prompt a more In the UK, the simplest way to reuse potable water precautionary approach from the UK Government and the is to refill reservoirs with recovered water. There is a water companies towards water resources. scheme along these lines planned by Thames Water at Of course, the issues are not unique to the UK. Indeed, the Deephams sewage plant in Edmonton, north London. the problems caused by a shortage of water are more However, current plans show that it will not be operational urgent and serious in many other parts of the world. until the late 2030s. The 2021 UN Update on progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 6, which aims to ensure availability In addition to contributing to potable supply, reused and sustainable management of water and sanitation for water helps cut commercial and industrial abstraction in all by 2030, noted that, although water use has remained sectors such as food processing and paper manufacture. relatively stable at the global level during the previous ten Recovered water can be reused onsite, an example being years, in some regions the level of water stress increased the Aquabio reuse scheme at the Bakkavor’s site in Boston by 14-15 per cent over two decades. Many countries are in Lincolnshire where 80 per cent of the water used can be withdrawing all their renewable water resources or are safely recycled as a potable grade supply. relying on non-renewable resources that will eventually run dry. Globally, some two billion people lacked safely An important additional benefit of water reuse is its managed drinking water services in 2020. potential to improve environmental quality. A particular In order to think constructively about the global concern in England is the conservation of chalk streams situation, water use is one of the problems that we all and rivers. In global terms, such streams and rivers need to think locally about public policies to ensure the are rare environments, as they are a product of chalk deposits near the surface of the earth that provide the filtering conditions associated with the purity of chalk watercourses. Some 80 per cent of all the chalk streams and rivers in the world are found in the south east of England, East Anglia, and the chalk hills of Lincolnshire and Yorkshire. In other words, they are clustered in the Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 45

part of the UK that has some of the greatest demand Clearly, there needs to be a reduction in wastage through for water. For years, abstraction licences have allowed dealing with the problem of leaks from supply pipes. But water withdrawal both from the rivers themselves the Victorian water supply system makes this difficult. In and the aquifers on which they rely, at levels that are many places, there are not even maps of the piping system. incompatible with the maintenance of the quality of the There is a government target to reduce individual demand rivers and streams. from an average of 142 litres per day per person to 110 litres. But reducing demand relies on the difficult policy task In short, reuse promises a way of addressing the of co-ordinating the behaviour of millions of households. problem of water shortage by achieving greater efficiency. Moreover, heavy commercial users, including the data If water is reused, it need not be abstracted to the same centres in west London that need large quantities of water level as today. Instead of taking more water from aquifers to cool their servers, are excluded from the target. Given and rivers, water from reuse plants can enhance the all this, there will have to be a dual approach involving an supply and reuse of water that has already been used once, increase in supply alongside a reduction in demand. helping to reduce pollution. Some might think that water reuse would be The technology of reuse unnecessary on an island like the UK. Surrounded by the The key piece of engineering technology on which water sea, why not turn to desalination instead? There is plenty use relies are synthetic membranes of two types. The of water in the sea, all it needs is for the salt and other first are extremely thin polymeric filters with pores of impurities to be removed. Moreover, reuse relies on the around 0.2 microns in size, or about one hundredth same membrane technology as desalination, and this has the diameter of the finest human hair. Such pores can been used in Israel and the Middle East for decades to be seen using powerful microscopes, and just as infused address their water shortage. With the recent opening of a water passes through a coffee filter, leaving the grounds second desalination plant at Sorek outside Tel Aviv, Israel behind, so fluids, like water, can pass through these will generate a supply sufficient for 85 to 90 per cent of its membranes while other material, such as bacteria, annual municipal and industrial water needs. If it works in is retained. The second type are reverse osmosis Tel Aviv, why can’t it work in London? membranes, such as those used for seawater desalination, and their ‘pores’ are actually too small to be seen under The UK’s only municipal desalination plant operates at any microscope. Membrane filtration is highly efficient, Beckton, in London. But ‘operate’ is not quite the right word. with the reverse osmosis membrane permeating water Planned in the early part of the 21st century and coming into while retaining salt molecules. Both membranes work operation in 2010, the original intention was to ensure the as an effective barrier for all forms of bacteria found in supply of water to London in times of drought. But in the water, being more effective than sand or other types of summer of 2022, Thames Water did not use the plant, saying traditional filters. that it was out of operation for “planned maintenance.” In fact, the plant has been underutilised throughout its life Many people will ask why we need to turn to water because it is not the right sort of technology. reuse rather than reduce demand. After all, the old principle of environmental protection still applies: first More generally, reuse scores over desalination because reduce, and only then reuse or recycle. it is cheaper in energy and economic terms, given that the near absence of salinity reduces both the capital and 46 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

drought running costs of the reverse osmosis units and the overall summer of 2022 that severe droughts may see the return cost by at least 50 per cent. Moreover, desalination has to of standpipes in the street, as occurred in the UK in 1976, return highly salty water to the environment, with adverse when by late August, London, Leeds, and many other effects on local ecology. places had less than three months of supply left. Far from discounting the possibility of a repeat and conscious of the Despite its advantages, water reuse is currently a failure of Beckton, conversations on planning for planned neglected option in water policy planning. A 2018 water reuse are overdue. draft National Policy Statement on Water Resources Infrastructure from the Department for Environment, Sources Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) failed to put it on a level footing with desalination, reservoir expansion, or n National Infrastructure Commission (2018): Preparing for a transferring water from one region to another. This neglect drier future, nic.org.uk; was criticised by the Commons Environment, Food, and n UN Water (2021): Summary progress update 2021: SDG 6 Rural Affairs Committee in its 2019 report on the subject. water and sanitation for all, www.unwater.org; To date, no revised final version of the National Policy n UK Government (2023): One hot, dry spell away from drought Statement has been published. returning this summer, national drought group warns, www.gov.uk; n Water Reuse Europe (nd): Virtual site visit: the aquabio water One reason for government hesitation about reuse scheme for food processing, Boston, UK, www.water-reuse- encouraging water reuse may be fear of public opposition. europe.org; This has been an important consideration in some well- n Financial Times (Feb 2023): Drought and water supply in the known cases, including in California, where opponents of UK, www.ft.com; water reuse campaigned under the slogan ‘Toilet to Tap,’ n Pearce G, Field R & Weale A (2023): Why did a desalination and in Toowoomba, Australia, where it was opposed by plant go missing in action during the drought?, The Environment, the Citizens Against Drinking Sewage Campaign. In this (632), 32-33; context, it is worth knowing that there is extensive research n UK Parliament Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on public attitudes that goes back decades. That research Committee (2018): Water supply and demand management, generally shows a clear gradient across time and place from parliament.uk; uses like irrigation, where opposition is low, to potable n UK Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs reuse, where it is higher. However, attitudes are certainly (2022): Draft National Policy Statement for Water Resources not fixed or uniform, and in the UK, there are plenty of Infrastructure, consult.defra.gov.uk examples of water used for drinking from the unplanned reuse implicit in the discharge of treated water into the Author environment upstream of water intakes. It has been said that the water abstracted from the Thames and drunk in ROBERT FIELD is Emeritus Professor of Engineering London has already passed through seven bladders. Science, University of Oxford and Professor in the Faculty of Perhaps if we talked about reuse more openly, the public would worry less and the government would act Engineering and Environment, Northumbria University, UK more quickly. In the absence of such a conversation, no one should complain that they were not warned by the ALBERT WEALE is Emeritus Professor of Political Theory and Public Policy at UCL, UK Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 47

A lesson not learned The Santa Catarina 2008 floods in Brazil exposed the region’s vulnerability to natural hazards in the face of heavy rain, flooding, and landslides, writes André Francisco Pugas T he importance of prevention and preparation for natural and landslides to worsen. By November 25, many towns hazards is never as obvious as in the face of actual proof. and cities in the region were completely cut off from the In 2008, the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil experienced outside world. Roads and bridges had been destroyed, one of the worst natural hazards in its history. A series of and communication lines were down. Rescue efforts were severe rainstorms caused flooding and landslides, resulting hampered by the ongoing rain, which made it difficult to in the deaths of over 130 people and the displacement of access many affected areas. thousands more. The tragedy of 2008 in Santa Catarina serves as a tragic reminder of the power of nature and the The disaster was particularly devastating in the city importance of disaster preparedness. of Blumenau, which was one of the worst-hit areas. The The disaster began on November 22, 2008, when a city had a long history of flooding, but the 2008 disaster heavy rainstorm hit the region. The storm was caused was on a much larger scale than anything experienced by a low-pressure system that had formed off the coast previously. The Itajaí-Açu River, which flows through of Santa Catarina. The storm brought heavy rain to Blumenau, rose to levels not seen in over a century. The the region, causing rivers and streams to overflow their floodwaters reached heights of over 14 metres in some banks. Landslides occurred in many areas, causing areas, submerging entire neighbourhoods. damage to buildings and infrastructure. Over the next few days, the rain continued to fall, causing flooding The flooding in Blumenau caused widespread destruction, with many homes and businesses completely destroyed. The city’s infrastructure was also severely 48 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports

floods The task force was created to enhance firefighters’ response capabilities in emergency situations, allowing them to improve co-ordination of rescue operations and aid to those affected by natural hazards. Since then, the task force has been instrumental in responding to emergencies in Santa Catarina, including controlling forest fires, rescuing people in hard-to-reach areas, and providing assistance to victims of landslides and floods. Despite these efforts, however, the risk of natural hazards remains high in Santa Catarina and other parts of Brazil. Climate change is expected to lead to more frequent and severe weather events, which will further increase the risk of flooding and landslides. Future incoming Brazil needs to develop and implement a plan that identifies and assesses disaster risks, establishes measures to reduce those risks, and outlines response and recovery actions in the event of a disaster. The country should invest in infrastructure improvements such as better drainage systems, strengthening levees and dams, and improving building codes to withstand natural hazards. There is a need to improve early warning systems for natural disasters and ensure that the warning messages reach the affected population. Brazil can improve the Santa Catarina Military Fire Department created a task force after heavy rains caused landslides and floods, resulting in more than 130 deaths in November 2008 Santa Catarina was battered capacity of its emergency services, including training by flooding in 2008 personnel, equipping them with appropriate equipment and resources, and developing response plans. Photo: Agência Brasil The country must also promote community damaged, with roads, bridges, and buildings collapsing participation. Brazil can involve communities in disaster under the force of the floodwaters. The city’s hospital risk reduction efforts by providing education and training was also severely affected, with patients being forced to programmes, involving them in planning and decision- evacuate to other facilities. making processes, and encouraging them to adopt risk- reducing behaviours. The disaster had a significant effect on the entire region, with many towns and cities affected by the flooding There is a need to tackle the root causes of climate change and landslides. The state government declared a state of by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and implementing emergency, and the federal government provided aid and adaptation measures to prepare for the effects of climate support to the affected areas. Rescue efforts were carried change, such as more frequent and severe weather events. out by emergency responders and volunteers, who worked tirelessly to save lives and provide assistance to those in need. Overall, a multifaceted approach is required to address the complex issue of natural hazard in Brazil. By taking The tragedy of 2008 in Santa Catarina was a sobering a combination of these steps, the country can reduce its reminder of the power of nature and the importance of vulnerability to such hazards and improve its ability to disaster preparedness. The disaster exposed weaknesses in respond to future disasters. the region’s infrastructure and emergency response systems, highlighting the need for greater investment in these areas. The tragedy of 2008 in Santa Catarina was a devastating event that had a profound effect on the In the years since the disaster, efforts have been made to region. The disaster serves as a reminder of the power improve disaster preparedness in Santa Catarina. The state of nature and the importance of disaster preparedness. government has invested in flood control measures, such While efforts have been made to improve disaster as the construction of levees and the dredging of rivers. preparedness in the years since the tragedy, there is still Emergency response systems have also been improved, much work to be done to ensure that the region is ready with better communication networks and more robust to respond to future disasters. rescue operations. Author ANDRÉ FRANCISCO PUGAS is a Sergeant of the Military Fire Brigade of Santa Catarina Digital and print editions for subscribers www.crisis-response.com Crisis Response Journal 18:1 | April 2023 49

Danger on the rails: Ohio train derailment sparks nationwide safety concerns in the US 50 Follow our LinkedIn Company page for updates: The Crisis Response Journal follow us on twitter @CRJ_reports