COMPENDIUM

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS Conclusions to absorb the shock. manage travel. The goal is to have a set of stan- The global economy is Global leaders have to rise dard practices that can be staring at a recession and to meet the challenge by implemented globally. the reason is China. The not only tackling the crisis ‘World’s Factory’ touches in their own countries but As the rate of unemploy- the life of every person also helping others. Such ment has increased, fami- around the world. Once help can come through lies are under acute finan- hailed as a miracle of glo- debt-relief measures, post- cial constraint, especially balisation, it is now proving poning debt repayments, those who are daily-wage to be a bane. Whether this lowering tariffs, or entering earners. Without the right experience will act as a into trade agreements with technology, adequate further dampener on glo- developing countries. On finance or proper planning, balisation and “outsourcing” their part, developing coun there will be no relief. will only be known once the tries will have to make world has crushed corona- watertight commitments The government has to virus. The voices against and ensure 100per cent provide more support to the globalisation, especially in transparency of utilisation pharmaceutical Industry North America and Europe, of economic support ren- to establish an ecosystem are already getting strident. dered by richer countries at conducive to API manu- great cost to their citizens. facturing. There must be A global epidemic reinforc- more use of bioremedi- es the need for intelligent, Aviation has become the ation, a technology that data-driven supply chain sinews of international can treat environmental systems for faster and trade and other sectors. pollution using microbes, effective decision-making. The industry cannot recov- plants, or their by-prod- Artificial intelligence and er unless the commercial ucts. It helps in removing machine learning founda- aviation business is revived. xenobiotic and recalcitrant tion can trigger real-time Governments will have pollutants through physical alerts based on public data. to step in and support its and chemical methods. Supply chains can then recovery. Travel phobia may proactively take measures keep most non-essential Fear of pandemics will to avoid the disruption. travel grounded. This will ensure that healthcare be reflected in depressed emerges as a singular The virus has surfaced bookings. Hence, it will be focus for both rich and poor when there is erosion of a long, hard, and a pain- nations. It will ensure soft trust within and between ful road to recovery. power, influence, and great- countries. Catastrophic er commercial outreach risks are occurring at a The airline industry must to countries, which have a greater frequency, and have dialogues on post- flourishing pharma industry, the world has to jointly COVID-19 approaches coupled with comparative devise global solutions to find efficient ways to medical expertise. On both P91

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION counts, India scores high. caused by the pandem- The insurance Industry ic, it is perhaps prudent could use its experiences Post-COVID the Indian to delay the exposure of from the COVID-19 crisis pharmaceutical industry Indian industry to global to evolve for the better, by has the potential to ex- competition. However, studying altered consumer pand both regionally and such protection should preferences and purchase globally by investing more be temporary, and our patterns. Online marketing in R&D and supporting long-term commitment of insurance will grow, research in Indian medical should remain focused on as customers will in- colleges and institutions. free trade (minimal tariffs) creasingly prefer online and open markets (no channels to enquire, as- The devil of the API depen- restrictions on sources). sess, interact, and buy dency has to be overcome insurance, just like other first. Development teams The Green Revolution necessities of life. Insur- must start research from changed the face of Indi- ance providers will have basic chemicals upwards, an agriculture, raising it to invest in state-of-the and not from advance inter- from a subsistence level art digital capabilities. mediates, and give impetus to a driver of the econo- to in-house manufacture of my. Sadly, the sector has Innovation is the route to APIs. In this, government failed to adapt to changing survival in the new reali- support would be critical times. Considered as a ty. Corporate boards and through tax sops, dedicated high consumer of natu- risk management teams zones for chemical indus- ral resources to generate need to keep reviewing tries, and fast-tracking of much lesser value; sus- external and internal risks environmental clearance. ceptible to climate change to stay a step ahead and with poor flexibility to meet be prepared for potential Considering the ballooning supply–demand variables, and unannounced risks. India-China trade deficit and it is long due for an over- the significant presence of haul. Now is the time. The pandemic could well Chinese investments in In- be the turning point for dia, it may be challenging to In these disruptive times, the ‘gigification’ of work. boycott Chinese products. building operations resil- Attracted by the prospects ience will be critical for the of savings in terms of Already saddled with survival of all industries. direct and indirect costs an adverse balance of Supply chains will need that the gig economy of- trade, there are fears re-designing, there will be a fers, it could well become that many sectors of the rebalancing of assets base the new normal. Howev- Indian industry are not and supplier mix, and a er, since it has, till date, ready to face internation- trend towards regionalisa- been more successful in al competition. Further, tion of supply chains. This the arena of knowledge in view of the disruption trend had, in fact, started work, there is a risk of earlier, and post-COVID over-reach and too much will only accelerate it. investment too early. P92

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS CHAPTER IV P93

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION GEOOPPOOLLIITTIICCSS IN TTHHEETTIIMMEEOOFF A PAANNDDEEMMIICC ‘GGLLOOBBAALLORODREDRENRO NMORME’ORE’ INPUTS BY pmaixnedd esimgniacls ihnaSsyriba ealelonwinsgufbo-r fwahiernsithwaarseporufdmentistotasekeeksa,devisce- M.K. NARAYANAN, oa pvatcimuuaml.toThbeeedxpelcoiltinedebiynctohme- panedcciaoollpyeraitnionthfreominotvhaersicoounns- FORMER NATIONAL pptoertciimonngaclpcuoydweeoarfsd.etTahlrewumitUhp.tSwh.easTinafolitrbchaened, otrfieEIsr,uahraqosptaeunhrnadsednLotihtbefyaUar.eS,d.tiahnnseyidbheeaottunet-r. SECURITY gwliothbfaewl pcolewaregraeinqs,uaantdiothnishfaurs- dgoliinnggboy tfhtehmeorStaylritiay rnatreesfaungd ethee ADVISER, btheeer ndimevinidisehendt t—hefsrhoinme oPnrePsax- cshreiserisla, ckanofddirtehcetiong. loTbhae lBrfiit- GINODI IA aiAodftmeimoTenrihnstiectaBaoWknafeeasrs.t,athehcseapksewmOciiaabtdlhlaeydmiitrnsaaftaw’hsieraisnilhniavotraife-- tnietshhnahaoentPucmgrhihiemaordewlsciMittmrhgiinmslhiaisusitsrneiiorntfyifsgrtmw2aora0tnsce0odet8nhbva.erisacYotveineoolltnfyy, asinonsoovfeIrrsaqtreantcd hLeibdya,mthielithaarny- nwoaywousteinetmhesabtsoenbceeoftha evacwcianey, Thheeswsiwnginogf tohfe tpheendpuelunm- fdrloinmg of tIhrae qS,yriaAn frgehfuageneisctraisnis,, tbhuet copnfarnondteedmwiicth rhisainsg dbeeatehns, mdauylvuemer inmfaavyourvoefeCrhiinna aa2n0nd0d8t.hYteheteg, ltohbMealmidfoidnstalengclaiarEilnacgsroitsn,isetaoosf hhtoeatalnoldsltolcehkidsd,owweayns,apaneldbcetiioatoalklsyraebswoyaryttthooueat the shevfeisar-vad-oivsiupslrIanyodoifaf ,SCiftahotnienecagroaefvtsisbbyy- Pofrneoswidseeenmts tDoobentahledwaTyrtuhme ppan’s- Uan.dSn. oatnads atwheellUthKo.ught out strat- aC-hvinisa iInnhdainad,linifg othneepagndoeemsic.by mdemixiecdhassbigeennahlsandinledS, eysrpieaciaallly- egyT. hTehougUh .tSh.e Brhitiesah lNthactiaonrael theWshhileeetrhediWspesltayapopfeaSretdatteo blbnoyoewttThdiheeneesxUgip.gUSnl..oSefaod.nitdrhteoetdhaamletehUbevcKtyaatrhceceusocuyhmsmatelplmeenttgoi-s- tsHfbuolyeensadiltnitmnehsgtmSeitweeurattvisiioscenetv,h(iydNneeeoHanrtStsc)whoidshfaeeanlnslfeeogiirgntlmesngcliteaedciadsnk- tcnmshooracaemiinafilttcpawibanedynlefitadvCsreeehll,oemiappndmuiacbien.lniicnttW,ehrhemheaadlistlnuheocd,fatltteeiinhccohonge--, iensgof appoanwdeemrsic.. TTherupmubplic hweaaltsh ooffpraepparaednndeessmtoicfa.ceTahneeppiduemb- Wnoelosgitcalaipnpnoevaartieodn, atnod mmilaitianry- wfovsoyafsitrrtteecheahmecetdhahhlotaethfsocmTaseocraeesoltnifnblponecaueolrngpuils,ledehcw.ietnTigwhtaheaitnihdndfeeipotariwuail-tl lsioNicfceHwebSaansshchicreneuaaPeeltPllglhtyEhlee.wxcSpoatorsdkslyweeysrd,isttfmehrotamhmnpeymtrhiosvefheallaatvthceeskes tepddaeeoccmiwonlieinncre,oithiimsntasstihlcdbeeeeapaelrdniinmdgseiauncwvbyoeitotplhefotitrmphtmhemaelUs.e.pSTna.ohnitnfe-, ccalevaalirergapapinrosa,chatno dthetphainsdefmuirc-, hweraelstthruccakrdeowflnobuyrtihsehvinirugs.and ethdeugcloabatilopnow, esroeqcuiaatliown healsfabereen, tchlaeimr indgimthaint eisvehreytdhinthg weassuhnindeer outThoef oreneacchouontfrymwohsitchpewoa-s pevuidbelnict —hefraomlthP, retseidcehnnt oBlaorgacik- otcdhoinfrnfoTetPwrrhoeaaelnw,xtwa,WAyhademerndeseemttdhraeihtrcorkaaestsanhloieatmfy.ctrwahisadeisse.PqTurietihtssee- ppttChorlheeoimn.abaaTlc.saqhchTukeheesrtiwaonCdaiehnttiianhaasenelsadecwpairsehvagiaantitmeltdieeesemwrmcpaoatnuiipnclidg-s, cpOaIrlaobaoaqlwfm,ianeAnanrf’osg,ovihinevtarisnatsiitatsdritteoiaetoncnanh,,loeaiafndntndgmhdeitwlhwmiteiiattirhMhlyidtifrtdarahodrwmleye- ident, and going on the offensive enforce a severe lockdown over a East, to President Donald Trump’s P94 P50

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM TTHHEELLEEGGITITIMIMAACCYYOOFFOOUURRTTHHININKKTATANNKKISISININTHTEHEPOPOWWEREROOF FOOURURIDIEDAESAS cvthalisantigsmwthaienthlgieboefrtiahtlsadpteompeuovclaretaircoyinet,shscoionmugeld- 170 countries will see EU my. (Forbes Insights) wimapslemuenndt oenrlycwohnentrtohle, siwtuhateionn their GDP per capital COVID tfswbtheeirctreohaenmmngreetap,raukadbleeidldtsiycdpreeerrlweudasctiaetsta,tsoannactqnceheduae.nittdcChearhaigtisdnaiiaitnsfosi-.ost fall by the end of the Deal Businesses with Twehlel ontthhreopwathaowf areycovreermy waitrhkists year. optimal supply chains oecfontohmey Pbarceksiindaecntito,n.anHdowgevoe-r, have 15% lower supply iiqtnusgetsrtaoinonsnpstaharreeenocnyoffwaet etnhmseeiovrgneisnewgt oahbfeothnuet iptanwdeamsic. pInruidtseenfftorttsoto sapepeekar With research show- chain costs, less than aasdavriecseponasinbdle wcoroldoppoewreart,iCohni- ftapnurlralooroitnsmveenecrtodiotwvhettehshemweenoardrUsilcknd.sgoS., mu.annienddtsricirieaedlssepe,xirophaeutarottsr.ss, ing that 79% of com- Euro 1.1 trillion 50% of the inventory panies with high-per- EU budget for holdings, and cash- EMuorsot poethhear sAnsoiatnfacreoudnatrnieys, forming supply chains the next seven to-cash cycles at least bsuecthtaesrTagiwoainng, Sobutyh Kthoreeam, Inodria-, achieve revenue years three times faster than tcaaonndlittrSyoilnrgoaavtpeerosrteh,aehndaidvseeatsshheeo. wTshnhegeEreeaasrtt growth greater than those not focused on lisacapkpoeafridnigretoctbioe nth.eTohnee lBedritb-y isscihenPceriamndeqMuicikniasctieorn,swthairletethde bWreastvpeulyshees nasoiduegthhe swcieitnhce. his fPiOrmST-CcOoVnIvDicWtiOoRnLDthat herd iPmosmt tuhne itpyandwemaisc, tthheewoorlndlyis wgoainyg otoutbeinvetrhyediaffberseennt.cWehoicfh the average within Euro 360 supply chain opti- atcioounvnattorcysctiiannnedth,uebpw?uoMtrlocdsotinsoffinrthoaenaptreoesdais- their industries, billion meant mization. (Logistics wweitmhenritsioinegd dareeahtiht bsy, thererolroissmt. for low-interest Bureau) According to Forbes Insights, 44% of loans for the 50% of respondents hWiesst wAsaiayisaanbdoutttoooikmprloedseobret- respondents state most severe say advancements in taUecoar.sSuc.sa,oaepnetowfoolfipcatthatlyeselatoolrhoieualctstistktasahdurneteoiydsnwgahnnantovdo,ettta.ahlIalekbnsooettfhiahtie-t that the Amazon victims of the technologies are ex- effect (the assumption CONVID-19 erting a strong impact that all e-commerce mayhem on their company’s sites must provide logistics, supply chain winetellrmths oouf aghdetcloinuintgsptorawteer,geytc.. customers what they Euro billion and transportation TaoaMrrlheotHsohitneueodgoafethtlhethpheetrhd.cSeeSopeourB,nrevmtrsriisaictienioessynhi(nooNfNftthoHhaneeStewim)okoineirnsal-dd- want, when they want grant to the operations. (Forbes it and at a lower price) worst affected Insights) is having a dramat- economies. ic impact on their The Institut Pasteur asurefsowremcoiduladbhlaeve iminpsletimtuentitoedni,f logistics, supply chain in Dakar, Senegal has ytheeagrosveornf mneengtlseacrotuinndfuthnedwionrgld and transportation been working closely wbwueatresarseetrvnoinodtge. enWnteowuagrhheelginokienitgtshteolapfcaaskcte, othfe bpirgegepsat rdeedpnreesssison ttohe fwaocreld operations. with the British biotechnology firm Mologic to develop a new By the end of 2020, 50% of all form of rapid test kits for the manufacturing supply chains COVID-19 virus, to be made in ahans eeveprisdeenm, wicithwvaastsnucmrubeerlslyof will have the capability, either and distributed across Africa ebmwpexaietopnhsptooilsceusatwrePheidtePpharEolfetur.hpto.aSjImroaetbhddsi,tflnohhykr,ueftgmehelwiaans gcuanonmkyvdbeootrehnrffes- in-house or outsourced, to enable from their custom-built DiaTropix direct-to-consumption shipments facility. and home delivery. (IDC) tohnley cNouHntSry hwehaiclhthhaswcoomrkeeorsut Similarly, researchers at the 48% of supply chain and trans- Kenya Medical Research Insti- tohf tehmis asnedlvisepsrepwareinrgeto tsatkreuocvker portation executives say they are tute have joined the race with dCthooeuwnwtnorriebldsyilnitkheseotmhveieruUws.aS.y. sanisd China. experiencing the need to reeval- their colleagues from across the West- uate warehouse locations due to world in developing new vaccine ernTEhureopoenaere cgooinugnttortyakwe ahliocnhg, shifting trade patterns resulting candidates to meet the COVID-19 from changes in the U.S. econo- challenge. long time to recover from the pan- P95 P51

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION was the black swan and is ical experts, protective that they have. In the U.S., attempting to masquerade masks, and respirators all people are starting to talk as a white swan is China. over the world. Most oth- of it in terms of a declin- The Chinese regime could er Asian countries, such ing power, etc. Most of the enforce a severe lockdown as Taiwan, South Korea, countries in the world are over a vast swathe of its India, and Singapore, have in deep depression of one population, something the shown great control over kind or the other. So, many liberal democracies could the disease. The East is of the measures we could implement only when the appearing to be the one have implemented if the situation became des- led by science and quick governments around the perate, and that too with action, while the West world were strong enough marked reluctance and pushes aside the science. like the past, but are not. against strong public re- We are going to face the sistance. China is well on POST-COVID WORLD biggest depression the the path of recovery with Post the pandemic, the world has ever seen, with its economy back in ac- world is going to be very vast numbers of people tion. However, questions different. Which country without jobs, huge num- are now emerging about in the world is in a posi- bers without health. I think its transparency at the on- tion to stand up? Most of few governments are pre- set of the pandemic. In the areas we mentioned pared for this and the only its efforts to appear as a are hit by terrorism. West country which has come responsible world power, Asia is about to implode out of this and is prepar- China is now sending med- because of the oil issues ing to take over the world and the other conflicts P96

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS in some ways is China. East holds all the answers. of Europe has nationalised Countries like the U.S. and With leaders in the East, healthcare, and the Scan- Western Europe are going whether it be Xi Jinping in dinavian countries are to take a long, long time to China or Putin in Russia, examples of the balance recover from the pandem- the current so-called ‘suc- between public welfare ic. The world will have to cessful’ leaders are those States and democracies. decide how we are going who are practitioners of, to deal with this new situ- for lack of a better word, There is also concern ation, where a country that personal authoritarianism. about the violation of peo- doesn’t believe in interna- There is now a willingness ple’s rights in the East un- tional rules and conduct to restrict a degree of se- der authoritarian regimes, is going to be a dominant curities in the belief that and rightly so. The Ui- power at least in this part public good takes prece- ghur Muslim crisis, along of the world. dence over everything else. with the subduing of free This, undoubtedly, raises speech in India has raised EAST OR WEST, WHAT IS the question of what is the concerns about whether BEST? perfect balance between authoritarianism can be This is not the first time authoritarianism and de- an option at a time when that the soft power of mocracy, and whether people’s identities and the West has been ques- when emergency services personal beliefs are loud- tioned. The appeal of the are put in place, is there er than ever. There is the American model was also the trust that they would be concern that once these sullied by gun violence rolled back after the emer- regimes employ such pow- and the mismanagement gency fades? ers, would they also, then that led to the 2008 glob- equally pull back these al financial crisis. After THE COUNTERPOINT measures when the time the 2008 Great Recession, Naturally, it would not be comes? The State knows most of Asia was relatively that easy to dethrone the best is the answer to most unscathed, while the U.S. West. Above all, leader- questions. and Europe floundered. At ship in global governance present, the EU saw most requires a combination The whole concept of countries keeping their of performance, diploma- the international commu- resources for themselves cy, and principles. It is not nity is coming under ques- due to the fear of short- that the West lacks these. tion. The point we need to ages at home. After long It is just that the pandemic realise is that if there is no talks, emergency packag- brought out the instability global community, there is es were finally set up to al- of its capitalistic practices. no globalisation. The only low the countries to share The West still stands for way a global community their collective resources. upholding a world-class exists is if the East and education system. Most West play off each other This is not to say that the instead of trying to be one- up on each other. P97

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION hat public NO MANN IISS AN [2019]. It was the dire need ways, tried to overplay ver every- ISLAANNDD to battle this unknown vi- their hand to minimise the edly, raises rus that drove President extent of the pandemic. he perfect INPUTS BY Donald Trump to threaten That has caused a back- itarianism MICHAEL CHERTOFF, India well nigh to lift the lash as there is much more ther when FORMER SECRETARY, ban on her considerable cynicism and questioning. ut in place, U.S. DEPARTMENT stock of hydroxychloro- It requires us to be mind- hey would OF HOMELAND quine. Germany, France, ful and conscious that mergency SECURITY and the Czech Republic extraordinary measures had announced bans on should be extraordinary e that easy the export of protective and not ordinary. gear to avoid shortages at IIAbove all, tfheCftenOht,hVeiCetIrrDeOeis-V1iits9shIDapootan-1nnwed9eeethmlptiivnhiaceginnhitndaghseaapttnmhrtoiahinvcet-- home in March. Although In Hungary, Prime Min- crehaasisngplyroivnetenrc, ointniescttehdatwowrled under pressure, India as ister Viktor Orban has overnance well as some countries in been granted, by vote, ex- of perfor- the European Union did in- traordinary powers for an principles. deed lift the ban, with the unlimited period to tackle cks these. situation highlighting the the virus, and there is fear ic brought —aHtlienvoodrewfcigedooviennoeardns,sawe—, snchefatrotveirnihdcmcaessru,wetbcuaeaoacpsloriiltamndadlegv, pasl—nyetaotrapikgonlleeyf-., fragility of supply chains, he might misuse it. There apitalistic which could so easily be is a perception that mod- stands for broken when national in- ern-day western democ- education cgloeaordarse,thesdearnvgiecres osf,thicsavepriytarel-, terests overtake coopera- racies such as the UK and tive international trade. the U.S. have been reac- as nation- lpiaenocepolen,onaenadnotihdeer.aBsut,—cuttfiongr tionary in their approach he Scandi- oiwemsuvsoruuresletedruw,lviasielwsllnsoouhtafrafaedtlfryvreoabamhelniasptttaasihcrgetooerpbfe.ttesihotceHnoo.pfoTomtwlhhitiees-- ‘EXTRAORDINARY and have faced the brunt amples of isctaal drkislcyoucrsleeianrthaeryeeartshteo cdomane.- MEASURES SHOULD of the calamity. lic welfare BE EXTRAORDINARY, NOT ORDINARY.’ DATA SURVEILLANCE about the tWgohenrhoMreusnoognshtohteef spcuataohpnnupidonsleyttm-rhciveiheecsarrhi.nyitaBrtrehdueyetlni,Uaalinmcnnikutciceetesdd-. There’s always a risk that On the debate over using hts in the people will exploit this op- data surveillance to track n regimes, portunity to cement their the infected, there are hur Mus- Stitnatgeso, uAmrseerilcvaenss odifsfcofvreoremd thhaet authoritarian tendencies. long-term measures that President Jair Bolsonaro countries should take. It subduing 7re2psetr ocfentthoef witsorplhdarmisacneuotticaal of Brazil is trying to use consists of building con- has raised anreneeaUdlnsiswiotenirc,eImondpoisatt,iloyannfrd.omCThhtihniesaE. iWusrsoorupseee-, this crisis to push back tingency plans, applying r author- owf itlhl iss, u97repelyr cebnet wpearertfoor fanttihbei- on his own limitations on time-limited emergency ption at a power. Chinese President measures with clarity over Xi Jinping is attempting how such measures will ntities and optoiclsit[i2c0a19l].dItiswcasotuhresdeireineetdhteo to consolidate his pow- be implemented, and by uder than ePbynareetaItMslnierddsoteihanstitswotuDecnlolkonnncamiolgodwheuTnt.norvutilrmirfuitepsttshthoeatbthdarnraeoarovtene- er. The Chinese, in many whom. The U.S. did this n that once post 9/11. In the present ch powers, qually pull hlienrkceodnsideratbhlerostuocgkhof hydsrouxpy- n the time cphllyo-rcohquainine. dGyernmaamnyi,cFsra.nWce,haennd best is the tbthhaenesCopzneactnhhedReeexpmpuobrilcticohfhpiartdottaehncentiovUuengnceieatdr- . teodavSoitdastheorst,agAesmatehroimcae innsMadricsh-. the inter- oming un- Aclothvoeurgehdutnhdeart p7r2espsuerre,cIennditaoafs we need to pwwiwteiesetalhlnrapetUshhmnseaoiosmornimtseudtcaailotdyicuoifennnrtduorheitmeieigsdchialtlniihgfltthehnttehiEneeEugeubrdtraohonse--, no global globalisa- al commu- fpraegailnityUonfiosnup, pInlydicah,aianns,dwChhicih- and West tctcniiooveauenn.laidntlWtseiownroneteeraarsstreiieelosytn,sbafoelootfvbrrearrodttahkea.enkinset,iwbc9hoiooe7nptpeincreaasr-- d of trying er. P98

COVID-19 COMPENDIUMCOVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS extraordinary situation, Americans RESILIEN world leaders must bal- discovered ance the principles of civil that 72 per LAYER OF liberties and authoritarian cent of its tendencies until we chart pharmaceuti- The pand a clear way forward, and cal needs were three thin should not exploit the sit- mostly from of resilien uation. the European tion of a n Union, India, cient syst China has been in mid- and China have any w dle of internal and geopo- problem i litical disruptions — the up- Resiliency is about hav- multinational threats. on the ro sets in Hong Kong, and the having a m election in Taiwan. Unhap- i‘EnXgTRaAmORaDrIgNiAnRYofMEeArrSoUrR, EaSn DATFAinSaUlRlyV, EcILoLuAnNtrCiEes them- layer of fa piness also manifests it- eSHxtOrUaLDlaByEeErXToRf AfOaRtDIiNnARthY,e sOenltvheesdebnaeteeodvertuosintgadkaeta sruer-- one can r self in the population over svepilolannsceibitloitytraockf tthheeiirnfeocwtedn, up in dan censorship, and in the way sNyOsTtOeRmDIoNnARwY.h’ ich one can hcthoeeuarnelttrahirees alsohnnodgu-ltdesrteamkcemu. Iertiatcsyou.nresTisshttshaoattf to build o they have managed infor- rwTehillelyreeux’spplaooliwnt atwhysishaoepnrpisowkrtitunhndaittiynptgeooupcelpe- wbuoilduilndg comnteinagnencybuplialndsi,nagpplya- mind. mation with respect to the imnendt athnegirearoutuhsorittairmianeste. ndWene- csimsnutoegroaentcsstiumkiwrnieenigst-hlgeimwncuiilctlapleyrdistbyeuemoppveipmelrarlgpienelhnesocmw.yeTnmashtuneeciaddsh-, pandemic. There are hints wnpBciureeiasstezh.hidblPtairhstceokatsriotdybnieinunnhgitilsmtdoJoawiouinnrsudelBri.mtohsliistysaosctnirtaoiersnoimssotosnof danodebsy wrahiosme. TtheeUq.Su. deisd tihoisnpoosft Second of fragility: the Chinese powSeer.cCohninde,seaPgrelsoidbeanlt wXioJrilnd- ths9ahi/not1cue1wea.nttIihnosenwtup,horpweirnpopkcrlril.yedp-slceeAlesnhantoadofeeicnxrtishtvsriemalorlwuirbsdoetpirnubataialrerdlyts- affected b regime has always acted iwwhpsiiansisylglusp,oeibstwsreiea,ertldat.iekfTtmofehepeoptcviCanteegrhnpdidntlaoeeybsmceyto,hnieicgnsiorslolm,hidbcaaannaltidye-l oanfdraeusthiloierintacriyanistentodenhcaievseunatli-l demics, c upon the assumption that mto amtienimcihseatnhge extoenrt mof athsespiavne- ttwsheheoraCuncthlhadoaintrnnitaoveatheeaccxsslapebualneorpeittwpnutalhirynyenmfcsoithtiroudwaadoaitlnrietodhson, fe.asinrnosd- sive inter their legitimacy comes oiaadnsnentmdethiqtrcehun.reTeeashttiiaisiootnnnmhtineaausgrlc.nchIaetumtdsr.eeoisdqrAeurauircbpgeyasntlcoiikuocblsiansastmshol itnerntiaml aensd goefopnoelietidca.l disruptions the intern from performance. You abepmprinodafuclhanisd cnoenescdioeuds thtoat reex- ne—allasetochTttieiomhounneapnasibielnfteossTtitsnstaoeiHiwtmcosaeunnlgrf.liiKntiUnyoennthghia,snepaepnptidehonptdeihsusses-: needed to have economic damage sdttrrpoaaoooIrrnndditiidnnHaaaturrolyynogimatnan.eredyNa,,nsuooPbrtecroesiormcsduhaeinonuautMrslrdyyei.bnceisnaetexonr- tlaotiotnaokveer acecncsorushnitp, oanfdiinntethre- try can do and the way they have dtwioeanypwethinethdy erhenasvpceeecmt taionnathgeeadpaingnfdlooermbmaiac-l. can have b handled the pandemic — oVinketorcOarnbahnahvaes bbeoenrdgerarnstetdh, abyt wThoerrelda.rePheinotps olef frmagailyityn: tohte lCikhei- all germs there is fragility there. wvuonitlleilm, keietxetedrpapoeorrdiuointdaatroylltapgcoekwlreemrthssefovairrnuadsn, wnehseartegtimhee yhascaalwllaygs laoctbeadluispoan- they wish tahnde thienrteeirsnfeeatr, huenmleigshst mtihsuesye ttchiyoecnaos,msbuemus tpftrtioohmnetphreaertaftohlriemtiyralniescgeit.tihmYaoaut- nected. RESILIENCE, EXTRA ghaivveeencotneocmhinc doalmogagye,awndetahtehweary, LAYER OF FAT wit.iTshherteoisbaepcerocemptpiolnettehalyt mdoisd- vthireuy shaevse haannddledbtahecpteanridae,miwc —e There The pandemic has high- ceasrontn-hdneaeyUcwKteesatdned.rnthdeemUo.Sc.rhacaivees such ltihveere iisnfragailitgyltohebrae.l environ- that we n lighted three things. First, been and come the importance of resil- reaTcthioenraeryisinathceairteagpporroyacohfainsd- ment and it requires con- standing ience. The general expec- these mul tation of a normal soci- shauveesfatchedatthwe berunneteodf tthoe cwaloamrk- certed efforts. ety is an efficient system oityn. together and come up Finally where one does not have need to ta any wasteful capabilities. own heal The problem is when one would me hits a bump on the road. cy plan an This does supply-ch Another p have alter that one ca of need. The bo al security interdepe People ma globalisati given tech and bacter vironmen ed efforts. with some understanding of how we will police these P99

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION SYNERGIA FOUNDATION ON A UNITED Ursula von der Leyen. She not have come any soon- OFRNOANTUNITED tcootnhevecoymebdinaed“hefefeacrttoffealtslaopwoinlg- deern. oItf itsheeirsptoimoraerteanddtwhoartstthheit golgobya”l etcoonoItmaylyanodnthebaeftheraslhfocokfs cEoU-mmemabyerss. eeWeitaskerGDecPonocmoines- IFRONTn an era of globalisation, many oEfuthroe ppaendfeomrifca. iling to come ltirkaecGtrebecye waesremasukecdhtoaimsprboyvis8e countries have integrated to cmtiloooevmutTehrhsbyeeeriDtr-ilceamaoaniuldednmwstaara.istrekStsshihgaEeenfctemoedrnwoobfemisyvnietcatpldlReoa2yern7s-- tewpthhsaeresoorncuccgeiahtolnslematcduittsbihtezieuenirnsrieotsy.-dfTiasshnecciedfsapflhteleiicdcgdihsttumeoroewftahatnxaoad-t form regional Free Trade Ar- otof inctleanisme n“eEguotrioatpioenshaansd mnoucwh csallolswfoinr gthegblroeabkaulp oefcthoenuonmioyn eas or blocs to bring affluence to pboelictiocaml econthteentiwono. rldN’segobteiaatetd- gaanindedthgerouanfdte. Irnsh2o01c6kUsKogfatvhe ea their public through trade. Sadly, gainleotgn, gosrihdteehaethrMet EFoUFf’s(muspucolotilmaidninnaguraibtluyfd”i--. dtphearfoinnudigtiehvmeitvsioBciRc.eEtXoItThemseovsee.ntiments in the face of the pandemic, as each nSahneciawl farasmreewfoerkrr),inthge dteoalfarleloswhs counStYryNhEuRsbGaInAds its resources, the fjoorinthteiinniftuisaiotinvoefsfuondfsminetomEubreor- ITnhwehlaatnidsmseaenrkaEscaomnoovme itco csauotefmfdRFemrbOEioynSUngtEh.NAienDRTtIetAhCraieTHlsisaItwOnTs aENPosAfriwMtmheeellMbelnionucinsatcreier- pepecceeoqoaruuinnoonidepm,tcmhroiiceneelotpsamniintltisgo,epstfisonolyhrvteeahcirrrnoeeavaepstmreeafvnreetionindmeg-iyncttethhaaseerl pReerhcaopvsesrayveDtehealpwoliatiscasl igdenaeodf when he called for a coordinated Efruormozowneo. rst affected coun- anttbhroygiewereEsaasUttleea,lrpftphbt2eeued7rrrdifefcoinmhrv.eweTreahmrcddeoaubftanyoectstrrsi-thechosooafuthuldatinnhveeer-- response across the world’s largest clctirioepineasFlsEsier,Usloaet,mbfntuhedfdeinngtidnseaettiantoflio:caiirtitt.athiAhnlaeErgseutnhtcrehroxoeet1ev.s1pepetrvrrrioyeniln.--- dteanlsweas cnoengcloudtieadtidoenspsite ahungde yeaTrsh, ea EuEruo r3o6p0ebainllionUmneioannt mdamNuifeesufntegectr.roehenAtcpipsaeoiosgtlinelciiiidtsfeiisccaiaoatnsfllteotldhcfneeogpapnansartistedutanrecaehgtafiiteorihonvnmese-t. Itrandiangnbelorcas aonfdgrelombinadleisdaaltlitohnat, f(oErUlo)wh-iansterbesetelonanfisrfsotr othfefmthoset dEeUbt’smuutupalcisoamtioinn, gGermbaundygaentd, smbelavoyechreekmviaicntnidmaasEoufbrtiodhbeilCltiooOnNgrVreIapDnat-1ti9or ForrantcheewilMl sFhFould(mer uthlteiagnrenauteastl EanumraopappenoayinnUtcmnoeiounntn(twEriUiteh)slehaihsdtaeorvrsyefatchineadt- tthheeworestcaofnfeoctmediceconcomariensa. gTeo fNgfdiianneelataahFnlneocriucalarali’nal—lbdolusAw,rfduarsesantndrm,ifaSowe,wrhDweieldtoenehrmntekha)—er,kin‘,hFtfathruhvueee-- thteey gcorualtdendottmoifsso. rm regional goeft aCpOerVspIDec-t1iv9e.of tWheidthealm, itamnay aslisoonmoafnafguenddtso isnetcoureEuimropporet- bmESeUpoisSantoitanewmsr,lheaesaGrttgmiirnesegabsesote7oc“r5Gesn%roetoaeeflnniItkfndhieedalitdaPi”’stoIaGtibrsaDtoaluuPyl-t-!, fabaeonunnrtd-gtyecheeocten.aiorcMrnecseoopsmnimeotbnrreiiisbeor,usdsstiut,ooacnthhveseseatlrposwaiitrnlhlegsebhaeaEttvveoUes- Free Trade Areas or blocs tghaisl daealrl?eaIdt ymaiynbethreecaltlhedrotheast troecdroavweurpfnraotmionatlhreeceovceorynpolmans- EtoURbOrPinEgLEaAffDlIuNeGnTcHeEto their aoffter theexfitnraenmciael collaepcsoe onfo2m00i8c- wichitleapillsedpgiinngtthorreeafotremntihnegir ethcoe- CTphHueAbsRlticaGtEutshorof cuogllhabotrraatdioen. wSitahdin- t0di9oi,sntchaoemrmeonwfgoasstrtma germeowbveeinrngcoduisbnitnercifeloisnroae-f naEboulmeroitcozagonanidnepa.occlietsicsatlostyhseteirmsshatroeboef tlyh,e iEnU twhaes sfuacccienctolyfsuthmemapraisned- tthheeEUpatondsheamre itchesfitnrauncckia,l bthure- theFfuirnsdts,. the deal: it has bdyetmheicC,omamsisseioancPhrescidoenutn, Utrry- recovery package could three principal elements sahuul“ashebvaoarntnfdedletsr aLpeioytlseong.y”SrehtesoocIoutnarvlcyeeyoesnd, bthehealf ocf Eoumrompeofonr failingtetorecosmtse toof ththeier abidloact tahreemsoustffpeerilnogus. trbTbioemyhpaeitesitsnhh. gawSeshhaeneIstoawarwetlwinbaoteefncollonsmoPetleirnodiumatchrlnaieetciymwi”aM.o“trSEelidnhud’es-- wisatserrefewrrhinegntohfreeshcajolilnetdiniftoiar- tmfaarivcoeemdrscoicowosafloosmrersqetdtmuhiainebpffemaerwctetceneoodtdur, lncfdlotyrr’usieinensstlrapptioearosgtsi,nheeaansnsrtedets itnraitidaitningg tbhleocprsocaesnsdofrefimnainncdia-l reedcoavellryt.hat European Union b(EeeUTn)hfeilresEtauodrfoefptrehsaenfbUaloncciekodnin(aEanUb)iadhpatos- rpeopainirtmtheenetconwomitihc carhniasgteoroyf CthOaVtIDth-1e9y. cWoituhldmnanoytEmUismse.m- bers like Italy, Spain, Greece and PeExoUtrrtReumOgaePl eaEclorLneaoEdmAyicDindIiNstchGoemTtfhoHrrotEeesveonf bCeHfoAreRthGeEpandemic struck, the re- cTohveery psatcaktaugse cooulfd ncoot hllaavbe coormae- aEtinUoynmsowaoynisteehre.inIittstihsGeeDstPEimUcoanwtetrdaatschtasbtuythcaes- mciuncchtalsybsyu8mpemrceanrtistheisdfibscyaltdhuee Commission President, PP51400

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS to it. A Euro 1.1 trillion EU shoulder a greater bur- EU’s Recovery and Resil- budget for the next seven den. The fact that the deal ience Facility. For coun- years, a Euro 360 billion was concluded despite tries such as Spain, Italy, meant for low-interest huge differences is itself and Greece, the hardest hit loans for the most severe an achievement. A signif- by the pandemic, this fund victims of the CONVID-19 icant departure from aus- will provide much-needed mayhem and a Euro billion tere policies of the past economic relief. grant to the worst affect- against debt mutualisa- ed economies. To get a tion, Germany and France ASEAN perspective of the deal, it will shoulder the greatest After the SARS epidemic, may be interesting to note financial burden, while the bloc had carved out a that it is almost as large the ‘Frugal Four’— Austria, common mechanism for as 75% of India’s GDP! Denmark, the Netherlands, pandemics. This had sev- and Sweden — have also en components — senior So what is so “Green- managed to secure im- officers health meetings; field” about this deal? It portant concessions, such Emergency Operations may be recalled that after as rebates for their contri- Centre Network (Malay- the financial collapse of butions to the EU budget. sia); Field Epidemiology 200809, there was a grow- Member states will have Training Network (Malay- ing disinclination amongst to draw up national recov- sia and Thailand); Bio Di- member countries of the ery plans while pledging aspora Virtual Centre for EU to share the financial to reform their economic Big Data Analytics (Philip- burden of their poorer and political systems to pines); Risk Assessment & and worst hit co-mem- be able to gain access to Risk Communication Cen- bers. Weaker economies their share of the funds. tre (Malaysia); Regional like Greece were asked Public Health Laboratory to improvise through aus- Hailed as a major step Network and Public Health terity and higher taxes towards fiscal integration, Laboratory Network for on its citizens. This led the recovery fund will allow health hazards. These to what was called euro- Brussels to borrow €750 mechanisms did not come scepticism and calls for billion on capital markets up to the expectations the breakup of the union and parcel it out in terms as the suddenness of the gained ground. In 2016 UK of budgetary support to pandemic allowed little gave a definitive voice to countries on a need-basis. space for coordination. these sentiments through The core proposal Next its BREXIT move. Generation EU stipulates ASEAN sought cooper- that about €390 billion will ation from China, Japan, In what is seen as a be distributed in the form and South Korea in “timely move to perhaps save the of grants and €360 billion sharing of information, ex- political idea of the EU, in low-interest loans as periences and best prac- the richer countries have a core component of the tices, and enhance coop- now stepped forward to P101

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION eration around regional tential GDP decline at Council (ABAC), DatoRo- food security, including constant prices of over hana Tan Sri Mahmood. through utilising the ASE- 20per cent in Brazil and In- “This demands collabo- AN plus Three Emergency dia, 23per cent in Russia, ration across the region Rice Reserve”. The ASEAN about 19per cent in China, on the knowledge and the Risk Assessment and Risk and 17per cent in South tools we need to combat Communication Centre, Africa. The BRICS New the health impacts and hosted by Malaysia, has Development Bank (NDB) mitigate the most severe now taken the lead in risk issued a three-year RMB economic consequenc- communication initiative Coronavirus Combating es in the short term,” she for public communica- Bond to raise 5 billion yuan added. While a financial tions throughout the bloc. (US$ 706 million). The package has not yet been An ASEAN Response Fund NDB has also approved released by APEC, the fo- is proposed. an emergency assistance cus is on dealing with the loan of 7 billion yuan (US$ impact on SMEs, including SAARC 1 billion) to China to fight lending facilities, low-in- The COVID emergency COVID-19. However, the terest loans, moratoriums fund was proposed by BRICS countries are yet on rental payments, tax the Indian Prime Minister, to come together to form deferrals, and wage sub- which had accumulated a joint strategy, although, sidies for three months. US$ 21.8 million by April. during the recovery phase, This is guesstimated to This is more of a “virtual they may collaborate to amount to US$ 471 billion. fund” with no central pool- expedite the recovery pro- ing of money and with- cess. NAFTA out a central administra- APEC The North American Free tor. Each member would Health officials of Asia-Pa- Trade Agreement bloc is in take its own decision on cific Economic Coopera- the middle of a makeover, implementation of their tion convened in Malay- trying to change its image commitments. India has sia to discuss strategies to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada also offered assistance in for the surveillance and Agreement. While Canada material and services to management of the out- and Mexico have come neighbouring countries, if break. APEC economies on board with the plan required, and Armed Forc- are also examining sup- this year, the U.S.’s stance es Humanitarian Assis- ply-side strategies to on the agreement has to tance Teams have been strengthen vaccine-based emerge. The NAFTA 2.0 placed on standby. public health responses. deal does, however, em- “Saving lives is obviously phasise an “enforceable BRICS what matters most right biotechnology chapter,” For the BRICS countries, now,” said the Chair of the as per the council. The the OECD predicts a po- APEC Business Advisory deal has taken a backseat P102

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS during the crisis. itself by a coordinated standing. response and tempering However, the U.S. is MERCOSUR the tensions between geo- Member countries: Argen- political rivals like the U.S. still the most powerful na- tina, Brazil, Paraguay and and China. Better still, with tion and will remain so for Uruguay, and lat er joined a collaborative approach, some time to come. by Venezuela and Bolivia. we can prepare better for Also called the Southern the next pandemic. India’s strategic part- Common Market, MER- nership with the U.S. re- COSUR has approved US$ India can act as a bridge mains strong, despite a 16 million for the multina- between the North and the few minor hiccups, and tional project “Research, South to vitalise multilat- India should endeavour to Education and Biotechnol- eral agencies. While India strengthen it further post- ogies applied to Health,” to may not be a significant COVID-19. India’s ges- support the fight against contributor to the budget ture of meeting the U.S. COVID-19. of multilateral agencies requirement of Hydroxy- like the WHO, and the IMF, chloroquine and its formu- POST-COVID its citizens make a signif- lations was a step in the GEOPOLITICAL icant contribution to the right direction. A new cold EQUATIONS activities of these institu- war could be in the offing AND INDIA tions, and over the years once the pandemic blows have earned considerable away. Could the pandem- SYNERGIA goodwill. This is the time ic trigger resentment and FOUNDATION to strengthen WHO and antagonistic sentiments RESEARCH TEAM IMF, and India must put its in the West against China weight behind like-mind- that could be turned to In- COVID-19 has rein- ed countries. India must dia’s advantage is some- forced the need for a push for a coordinated thing India has to incor- collaborative action and global economic reha- porate in its geostrategic plan and redefinition of the bilitation plan, strengthen calculations. role of multilateral agen- international institutions cies. International gov- and multilateral dialogue, EUROPE ernance can still redeem and give a boost to global- Europe will emerge isation. bruised and battered from the COVID-19 having UNITED STATES topped the charts in mor- U.S. influence over the bidity, mortalities, and the global commons has been manner in which the whole diminishing, and the crip- crisis has been dealt with. pling effect of COVID-19 Coming so soon after may further damage its BREXIT, it may trigger a fur- ther weakening of the EU P103

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION with rightist movements tion to act along with Eu- It has for the first time within individual States. ropean countries, led by since 1962, approached Propped up by fears of Germany and France, to the IMF for financial aid. the renewed migrant cri- build up a relationship with Post-COVID-19, Iran will sis, these right-wingers South Korea and Japan as find itself further isolat- may seek stronger border part of the postCOVID-19 ed in the Middle East. controls, disrupting the “alliance for multilater- Unable to finance its re- freedom of movement so alism”. A weakened EU gional proxies, there is a important for the idea of would need India’s mar- danger that the regime the EU. kets. Europe too may could try to provoke exter- look for alternative supply nal crises in the region to However, Europe can chains. Post-BREXIT, bilat- deflect domestic political play a vital role in acting eral trade, and investment pressures. India must join as the bridge between the opportunities with the UK other nations to seek a re- U.S. and China to bring are there to be exploited. laxation of sanctions on back globalisation and Iran to enable import of multilateralism into play. THE MIDDLE EAST critical medical supplies. French President Emman- Oil-producing countries It is critical that the falling uel Macron has been play- face an uphill battle to oil prices do not trigger an ing a leading role by trying recover from the eco- economic collapse in the to use the G7 and G20 to nomic fallout. Iran has Middle East as millions of deal with the economic been most severely im- Indian ex-pats would be and geopolitical conse- pacted, by the pandemic affected and India’s remit- quences of COVID-19. and crashing oil prices. tances would drop. India is in a good posi- P104

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS ‘HUMANI- plies, not only to Europe, if other countries like India T‘HAURMIAANNIT’ASRIIALNK’ but also to the U.S. are able to provide a more RSIOLKURTOEUTE comCehtihneamiosstdpisropsplaeyroinusgnpatrioon- cthoemLupneatritNivewe Yfeiearldexfoodursgolfotbhe- iaiintnnac’st’setthrisveetseratowlnroltgeeorlaabdIiddnlabedytyierars2ah0wle4irsop9eut.laladOttbhifoblrnigeossruehwCagethitedhihr- awsCouvlhoseisprnuueetlcshpdteepbtaWlhlyeleHnocvsOehte,rfraiowtitn.nhhgeiscC,hglthohwibneaeesn.seActllehshaooerlliydys HSoSutRh.AOsifanccoouurnstreie, st,haendrethheawvilel- hesWitahntilein cuonduenrtarkieinsg indeSp.eEn.- biittnhesgenesmeensdseetsdaopdiecorvpaaeetlnerestiitqemsupeisrup.ermspeoestrnrtitsngnsooinft Afduinreesogn, iCmctarhiinissbnvisueeessapnetnipedgstalfaaytictitoeccemnehdpseatoniiinmftnsgt.s,hmaeatedflaiengcvseenleveoalpdyl-- INPUTS BY to western markets, it is an PATRICK MENDIS, bDeISiRnUgPuTpEDtoSUsPtaPLnYdCaHrdA.INS FORMER U.S. DIPLOMAT, ChiInna watshaeble ptoocsomt-pCeOteVahIDea-d1o9f si‘rGuofnfLyerOtihnaBgtfAtrhoeLmWIaSedsAits-irsupntoewd WHO SPECIALISES sdevyceneraynmoaitchrsieorto,cowuCenhsttrieynrinan csuoiupsnpltyrl-iieckshe.alIiynn gTloIbOalNsuWpplyITchHain. IN THE INTERPRE- taopolset-vCeOrVaIgDe-19thsceenagriooo, idf wotihll- TATION OF CHINESE OBJECTIVES TThdhaeteeHseHbaalecthkatlStohi2lk0S1R7iolwkahdeR(nHoCSahRdi-) eeracronuendtrietshlriokeugInhdiaitasre abHleStRo LOA CglAobLalISsuApTplyIOchNai’n n(eHseSRPr)esiddeantteXsi Jbinapcinkg fppwfoorroroirusvgliledidotsebbsea,anlceslmufoiikptom.perlemy ccLeohemarcnipnioesa,tvilttohiveeennatftiehneerlddy- signed taome2m0o1r7andwumheonf unCdheri-- HuWawhileei, couwnhtroies ianreS.E.nAoswia is for everybody. China nsstteraunscdetiinoPgnwroeiftshthitdeheeHnWStRH,XOwifitoJhritanhpeprcionomng-- mbenaerfkiteedtinimgmveensnetliylafrtoomrssuapnpdly sisiegonfeodver oaf USm$e3m0 moirlalionnd. uTmhe ocithtiahsineasnr aimlriognneyeddtihctoaatwltehesetleeWrcnetsmrtoaisnrkniecotsws, now has been through a tsouffmeriengmfbroemrsa odfisrtuhpetedBRglIobinal disINcPuUsTsSioBnY on whether it shSBoEOuNOlIdONRfHoDUcEIuPKsUHToOYnOd, omestic suSpEpClRyEcThAaRYin, s themselves. ThMisINrISeT-tRhYinOkFing has been oaifmuwnads teorismtparnovdeinpugblwic ihtehaltthhien Esuuprpolypceh.ain. baHsOeMdE oAFnFAtIRhSe, principles WodcoefumHStnhiiOtcnre,ciCeefHshotaihSrnleoRatnbhh,gewaegtdhiniecttnrhCoiinehnadgisnotpetofsrretuothubcmerentlpiitoast.hnnee- wethvoreoTrAuyuhblgdgoihsldoyhab.aedlCdlipshsicpuiunCplsaopshlimyoinnnoaacwhtoinaachincawshhiihsebeteehvfefoeentrr ofSTINaGoAaPOndREConfucianism. ocofncoevpet rinotof rUeSal$ity3t0hromugilhliodinp.- itsshmouilsdsfoiocuns toon dboemceostmic esutphpley TpIolotfuhammlbeyaeltwidicaciaciseamhnlitegasaiadwgml.etaTmahjhsoeenrintataoicadctnipvdoirmiuotdyvnep,isdwtrpreohaidetviccteshho imThcnhaaasooitbnshaestneetdnhepwbCmaroososneersfdlulvpdcoeiensa.brntTohiysheumisps2.rr0eTin-4hntchei9apin.wltekiesoOisnontfg-f SThe western concept of awlaosngigvetnhweidCehpiunbelisceityb. Eevlte.n the gerrneacotnecreptinotfecroemsptetitoive Isnupdpilay comipngeatpiotirvee’s fsaullpfrpolmy tchhea‘ginolsd has sotavnedrawrdh’ einlmteremdsaofllecffoicuienn-- tartiterisbcu,ytiienndchtalouneddmliinnpgglotyhCienhpgaiunnndaseomaphincidsis- Itnicdatiead, caontdactittriascinngomt eathosdussa-s ChiSnain-bcaesed tAhliebababFeoguinndnaitniogn wchoaiunsldhasbeoveCrwhhienlma’esd aslltrcoonung- taadienliabberlaetefcehaoticuer.e. ohpedqolafiunedisap,ttnmhetdoreeitnePotdPn)plEayatnto(ndopdoeEttreuuhsrmoeronnrpaimeclt,e,hpbdureioCcttaacehllcssoitonuinvptaoe-- SbtitrioiilesaTusn,thtoienhetrrcaaeAluslusdasiirntaeag,nrinCehachlobaiownlteuaiefoavneneantrtdrs,uiIrensesod. mi,waae, aintntdhdo sveniodtumTSapihnlrepgeinarrcipevtiopaorcleeysaaawbn—ridhderepo,isrgmehbstyeshr,tovawCinwnohdgieignniivvhnaeiedn’rsrig--, ctheepUt.S.into reality through twhheomwCilhlinag’snCeOsVsIDto-19oapidesneeimtss CeqOuaVl IoDpp-1or9tunaitiydandsceaeremtosall.to datleaniabpddlCilesohrhisdmnehdeaiapsHtiptsihcSarRdoti.cuspghOhelafnyoiticg’nfsoaguamrglspreeeer,aomddatyichecteeinavrsteel- ppCtSopeuhaihrrniasnaev,teseeeIstaasttulirymmpi,npotelrhgieseess.iNnitnotertucthohseiurvelneastnrebdieesdas,realiinnskgde-. bhaSnAaedRvaWSer3,hi3nethngfaea.rtSaeCilniwmthgieeainorsp.eoerreTsoehneelwyispna2uost3lrpi8uchpeisctlaiihevsbaeesdys ahaidve. bTehene adaviedrseproepvoirdtsedof tiots thoelpceodutnhetrMieisnisltikryeoSf pHaeainlt,h Iitn- India, have turned out faulty by Imtaedlyicawl eaqsuipimtsenmt naotjoberinagcutpivto- DloIcSalRsUtaPnTdaErdDs.SSUePvePreLlyY affect- acolyn,tactht teracNinegt. hTeharltawnads sq,uitaenadn isttya,nIndwatrhhdie.chposwt-aCsOVgIDiv-e19n swcenidare- CCespudahHprceipAnodluiaIetnNoswtirStaiasessms“haapasbasvlieltveretyetm”romawcneuhodfemaCnchtpuicneroeimtnseeg- fIwaanacreehdudimieliatvdoy,enrme’tbienhoyntpartt.ulvBofseouicvrtea,ttbelhtceuihscsranttnuiaomselnoeedgdiatiearwsoraoudtshnusaadnt.t, piou, bClhiicniatyi.s liEkevley nto ltehveerageChthie- ngoao-dbwailsl eedarnAeldibtharboaughFoitus nHdSaR- apohteenatdialo. f every other coun- Sisesuveeorfeplryivacayfafnedcrtieghdts. Wceosuhnu-t atfLmoieloranrnioktpsvedrotcoioonatmngnedamcvtHteeeirnvucdtaieiawlPal etePeoin,rqEtsweurh(apioppnreidamsrreesseo,ontnlhionktew)e-r itgtcrreaystnToitshnropeafsworweruengopicsrvypletd,eltCyhrih-sencisnhuceancaoolfiiuonnkrndelidttytrisymitenloaesacok.fmvoIeonr-r-f stdtwroouaiwpespatnspyooflbhoielearacstvafeiuev. asTeetshtewaorte“’msspditxaiheddlendtap’rytyrCswi”,chaebnwiuwnttehtetoheshabanedet amneddicaol etlheectrronmicsetdoicmaeml bseruspo-f a(afpteorstht-eCSOAVRSIDe-p1id9emsicce), nfoarrdioe-, cpeormceipveadreasda tSotatietswhmereatshseipvoe- the BRI in Europe. laying the acknowledgement of a lice could have overarching powers. This diplomatic heft would help new deadly virus amongst its citi- Our country also prides itself China achieve its mission to be- zens, and allowing its spread during in treating everyone on its shores P105 P57

SYNESRYGNEIARGFIOA UFONUDNADTAITOIONN equally, mwhaentuhfearcatufroirnegigpnoerteonrtiaal. resident. ATllhaerewboerilndgisgivuennlikfreeley to ttWaarinnoeeddnahtsmgmae—evtedefnefittiitfcheotqrsaisurernctiganeefllsetdraohoaettcnfhecmcookcaeuoreCprSnssofahswdaAorfimtrnaRwogtveetSiieimrsetvasehqheenueotcoosifiCpsptouppiiihmnzdrviatiiefeensearentrenmlacsssn-t;.,(ifaccofy)r-,, then fromfoMr adleaylasiyainnsgwthhoetraavceklntoowl- Singaporeedtgoewmoerkn;ttohifrda fnreowm dsteua-dly dents ovevrirsueassawmhoornegtusrtnietsd hcoitmizee; ns, and finalalynfdromalmloiwgrianngt wiotsrkesrsp.read during the Lunar New Year UGmwLonoufOreelBdttbAeberLeesaeItudxlSahlosAegompdlTvoneuoIebocsOvarretNlmitstho.toaehftwIineoagsnrttlhdoeswseabtdrogeo,ul.oCntldbAhghaelinslrnioeCo-ehsieis- sation wnitehsleochaloisladtioonve—r stthaertiWngHO, supply chwahinics hdowmaesstciclaelalyrl—y whheiscihtant would poinssibulyndreesrutlatkininsgacrinfidcienpgen- efficiencdy,ecnhtoicnev,easntdigqautailoitnys. Tohfistheingisraatettroibf u9t.e5dpetrocenmt palnonyiunaglly. dapyosr,tbs uwtithiant twhaesStcohoenlageten.region, could podsseibvleyloalpsoinlgeadcrtiosgiseopaonldit-ac-Froumnsaopperh-icsatpicitaatGeDdP ocfolenstsatchtan Thtahte’scrtehaetiopnriocfeawseinghleadinternal ical tensicoenps.ting, at face value, Chi-US$tr3a0c0in, git gmreewthtoodmsoraesthaandUe-S$ tompaaryketbeacnaduasestawnedadrdidsny’tstem of takeHro, iwt denvoeeesrs,enSositntsagetateprmourleeensi,tsist.afolploriwces 1ccm8rhae,i0tltndie0wbiyct0eoSetr.derioDanfifonwtegremhnaimtgecophsrdhXo;eetoirinhnraeinteocclpeupCii.nadnrhitibginrnnoicgwdad,ieapusasstlncerttdeishonhebng—eytahoris--f wcaoaPT(lSuadnRhwtletdeaCsspteteawioctnhoeidtwanbhBvtoheRhemveeEorpilXcueueonInprTvitctefhea)irecerrfhiaoyavatrrepivpmcodeoahnarlciintonachicfcgesaeiElploeuanftriogtohpendee. enipngreusneivrverinsigty eindducivaitdiouna,lmpakrii-ng poUw.Se.’rsso.therwise pre-eminence. the rules. It needs globalisation, a nvewaccyonasntidtutriiognhftosr, tahnedChginive-se OuBrycnooutnptaryyinaglstohepirriddueess to the and so fo‘lGlowLsOapBpeaAlinLg IstSraAteg-ies to overcome the crisis. TION WITHAs for China’s perceived global LOCALISATION’might, there is a feeling that busi- CominmguenqisutaPl aorptypo(CrtCuPn)i,tyinasntidtu- itsUeNlf anind thtereWatHinOg, reenvegeirnyg- on the nessmen in Singapore are looking tioncaalriseintog a‘flrle.e enterprise’ with- onPealoesntinites ssehttolermesenetq, uanadllyw, alking towards China, as that is where the in ChiWnehseensSociniagliaspt othreinwkiansg,haitnd whoeuthoefr thae fUoNreicgonnevrenotirona on cli- money is.INHPoUwTeSveBrY, the Singapor- opebnyinSg AupRtSo, fothreeirgen iwnveersetmoennlyt. resmidateenct.haAnllgea,rethbeeUin.Sg. gapivp-ears to ean governBmOOenNtHaUnIdKiHtsOpOe, ople are nothfae’s2ttpAihEGu3eceUrcs8Dco.PhMrTacadnihasiisdnniesntigehstgphtsetooreplylnaoiatcrhwnotgeehdeefhreIsMtaH3Upfd3Foea.S,lrhal.iifoeltntaCywlh,pttheaeeiCdrinldnimh-abi’yss- esanghmlaofverbeeavelholeoltuasrdnepetaiarttsramhillsiyep,s.ntatepnipdnedgtbheaetck from well informSEeNdIaOnRdDwEaPrUyT. Y eqUuSaDl OaLcLcAeRssIS StToILeLqKuIiNpG- & comcpoenttitaicvet atrdavcainntgag. eTshteamt swfarosm mIennttimaneds omf feisdciaclintreouobnle,acompa- SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF thrqeeuiftaectoras.nFirsat,clhowieevrewmaegenst.to panriews,ithbacniktiszeannsd. Winveehstaovrse prefer worBkuetr,s bthecisautsiemoef loawroerucnodst, owf leiv- fatcoedhoflodurUwS advoelslarosf. iWnfheicle- draw- HOME AFFAIRS, CHANGE OFSINGAPORE AND FORMER PRESIDENT OF GUARD IN THEINTERPOL ingdsitdan’dtaordpst. fSoercotendc,htnhoelCoghineesse tioings —dowfirnstofnrocmredCith,intehseye prefer OFFING&ingapore’s fall fromyuatnhaetnjoayrse a mloowreexcihnatnrugseivreate totuorirsetcse;ivtheeUnSfdroomllarMs. aTloayp-reserve I SWTmanOl,utIhlwMteiionlFarl,tlahdesWrataonottl7herdr5ldreidlmnieyn‘rsBgegstaaoitsrnltutsdokhr,te)ifesto,nhtnpgpaeesrtanfholfndmei(ibcUndaeoieNerertdd--m,n’ciincyrwethaxiteptisobhovCheferthtucshpsiuatnerpueipdvUpssraoeoi.eSccwrg.etyo-indttcvooaoeflwbmnrloiandagprrm,sebrfteumiiivngastaieithnvnk’steeistn.csios.ogsT.slWlsthuahiibeexreodir-, siawnesaltwhh, tohetyrapvreelfetrohSoilndginag- US as- sptoustaraendektdese,ntewiotvnsheminwchocoorenrvenkeet;eUrrdsaStslehdUabiroasSdlnldakofrswrsloloahtmfrhosan.naBtatihonnekyss ed democracies around the world, THE RISE OF THE EU would otherwise need. Thus, de- developed the open-market system The vision of the EU was to ensure spite the pandemic, the US dollar of trade, and Pa1tt0e6mpted to create a has appreciated in value, against rules-based international order. free movement of people, goods, most currencies. As on April 7, From 1978 onwards, the econ- services and capital, within its re- 2020, the US dollar had gained omy of the People’s Republic of gion. This has been largely accom- 6per cent in value from its lowest China (PRC) grew at an astonish- plished with the abolition of pass- point in the previous month. Even

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS US President Donald ernment and its people are versity education, making Trump’s intention is to well informed and wary. a new constitution for the make Chinese imports Chinese Communist Par- more expensive, CHANGE OF ty (CCP), institutionalis- encouraging US cus- GUARD IN ing ‘free enterprise’ within tomers to buy more ex- THE OFFING Chinese socialist thinking, pensive, but US-manu- and opening up to foreign factured products. investment. returned home; and finally INPUTS BY According to the IMF, in from migrant workers. MAJ GEN MONI terms of purchasing pow- CHANDI (RETD) er parity, China’s GDP is GLOBALISATION CHIEF STRATEGIC the largest followed by the OFFICER, SYNERGIA EU and then the U.S. Chi- FOUNDATION na’s competitive advan- tage stems from three fac- Unfettered globalisation tors. First, lower wages to workers because of lower Iwould no more be the n the last 75 years, cost of living standards. the liberal world order Second, the Chinese yuan norm. Instead, there would strengthened multilater- enjoys a low exchange be a move towards global- rate with the U.S. dol- isation with localisation — al institutions (UN, WTO, lar, making their exports price-competitive. Third, starting supply chains do- IMF, World Bank), promot- the Chinese government’s collaborative support to mestically — which would ed democracies around big business. possibly result in sacrific- the world, developed the THE RISE OF THE EU The vision of the EU was ing efficiency, choice, and open-market system of to ensure free movement of people, goods, services quality. This could possi- trade, and attempted to and capital, within its re- gion. This has been largely bly also lead to geopoliti- create a rules-based inter- accomplished with the ab- olition of passports within cal tensions. national order. the Schengen region, the creation of a single inter- However, Singapore is a From 1978 onwards, nal market and a standard system of laws with vol- price taker, it does not set the economy of the Peo- untary participation. The rules, it follows the rules. ple’s Republic of China It needs globalisation, and (PRC) grew at an aston- so follows appealing strat- ishing rate of 9.5per cent egies to overcome the cri- annually. From a per-cap- sis. ita GDP of less than US$ As for China’s perceived 300, it grew to more than global might, there is a US$ 18,000. Deng Xiaop- feeling that businessmen ing was the architect of in Singapore are looking modern China and he is towards China, as that is credited with the introduc- where the money is. How- tion of many reforms; in- ever, the Singaporean gov- cluding, strengthening uni- P107

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION economic performance Despite the has resorted to quanti- of the PRC and the unifi- pandemic, the US tative easing, by printing cation of Europe (despite dollar has appreciated and releasing more than BREXIT) have challenged in value, against most US$ 700 billion into the U.S.’s otherwise pre-emi- currencies. As on market. Quantitative eas- nence. April 7, 2020, the US ing not only helps to con- dollar had gained trol appreciation of the By not paying their dues 6 per cent in value from dollar, but it also prevents to the UN and the WHO, its lowest point in the inflation in other nations. reneging on the Palestine previous month Since 1900, Argentina, settlement, and walking Hungary, Iceland, Venezu- out of the UN conven- US dollar has appreciated ela, Zimbabwe, Germany tion on climate change, 3.5per cent, since January amongst others, have all the U.S. appears to have 1, 2020. experienced runs on their voluntarily stepped back respective national cur- from global leadership. However, most U.S. rencies. economists are not hap- US DOLLAR IS STILL py with the appreciation If despite quantitative KING of the dollar because it easing, the US dollar con- In times of fiscal trouble, makes U.S. exports more tinues to rise in value, the companies, banks and expensive though it also U.S. government may re- investors prefer to hold makes imports cheaper. quest the G-7 to release US dollars. While drawing their dollar holdings to down on credit, they pre- In response to the meet the demand. fer to receive US dollars. surge in dollar demand, To preserve wealth, they the U.S. Federal Reserve LARGEST DEBTOR prefer holding US assets, which needs US dollars. Banks and even central banks of nations take in more US dollars than they would otherwise need. Thus, despite the pandem- ic, the US dollar has ap- preciated in value, against most currencies. As on April 7, 2020, the US dol- lar had gained 6per cent in value from its lowest point in the previous month. Even against the Euro, the P108

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS NATION federal government does phones and manufactured “The dollar is our curren- not have income to meet products were the major cy but it is your problem,” its expenditure. Cheap im- US imports from China, John Connally, the then US ports from the high-value totalling US$ 452 billion, Treasury Secretary was dollar has made domestic while aircraft, soybeans famously cited during his production uncompetitive and semiconductors were address to G-10 Finance and populist tax measures the major US exports to Ministers in 1971. have curbed government China, totalling a mere revenues. US$ 106 Debt rises when one billion. The PRC’s consis- spends more than one Cost of public health, tent trade surpluses over earns. As of April 2020, increasing federal debt, decades has helped it to U.S. national debt was es- and shortfall in national in- accumulate the largest timated at US$ 24 trillion. come are recent but have foreign exchange reserves Due to the coronavirus progressively aggravated in the world, estimated pandemic, the U.S. bud- over decades. The bottom at US$ 3.9 trillion (March get deficit is estimated to line is that U.S. national 2020). have reached a record US$ debt is increasing every 3.8 trillion (18.7per cent of year and at some point President Trump has GDP) this year. in the future, bills will be understandably been con- called for payment. cerned with the situation. The U.S. public health On one hand, he could try system is known to be BEDFELLOWS: US and force China to appre- inefficient. Further, with AND CHINA ciate the yuan against the remarkable increases Since 2012, the US trade dollar, but that could make in life expectancy, there deficit with China has con- the same imported Chi- are growing numbers of sistently exceeded US$ nese product more expen- senior citizens who as- 300 billion annually. In sive to U.S. customers. pire to benefit from the 2019, computers, mobile Alternatively, he could im- decrepit system. Short- pose additional tariffs on falls in budget have been The U.S. public health Chinese products (which met by increasing federal system is known to be he has done) but that debt, which costs inter- inefficient. Further, with would also make the prod- est. While the government remarkable increases ucts more expensive at may have some control in life expectancy, there home. Perhaps the Presi- over domestic interest are growing numbers dent’s intention is to make rates, the U.S. has com- of senior citizens who Chinese imports more ex- mitted interest payments aspire to benefit from pensive, encouraging US on international debt. the decrepit system customers to buy more Both PRC and Japan each expensive but US-manu- hold more than a trillion factured products. dollars in U.S. debt. The P109

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION Any policy that makes launched the Belt & Road and metal exports. Further, US customers pay more, Initiative (BRI) to connect it provides China with the merely to eliminate for- Asia, Africa, and Europe power and prestige it has eign competition, violates with a network of land sought since the humilia- the open-market system and maritime corridors. tion of the Opium Wars. of trade that has been the The plan promises to im- cornerstone of U.S. for- prove regional integration, No matter who wins eign policy for over seven increase trade, and stim- the U.S. presidential elec- decades. In terms of free ulate economic growth. tion in November 2020, trade, the US needs to in- It involves trillions of dol- the incumbent will have crease exports to China lars of investment for to exercise fiscal pru- to match their demand for ports, roads, railways, and dence on federal deb- imports. After years of tit- tele-communication net- it, balance of trade, and for-tat tariffs, the January works. Created in 2016, monetary policy. China, 15, 2020 US-China trade the Asian Infrastructure In- with its ample foreign ex- agreement, offers little vestment Bank (AIIB), is a change reserves and ex- clarity except making for multilateral development port-focused economy, atruce during the US Pres- bank structured to finance will be in a better position idential campaign. the BRI. Headquartered to assist recovery of the in Beijing, it has 102 ap- global economy in the af- CHINESE PERSPECTIVE proved members, includ- termath of the pandemic & THE MANDATE ing India. While Nirmala and the BRI and the AIIB OF HEAVEN Sitharaman, Finance Min- unlikely to face compe- The PRC would like yuan ister, is a governor of the tition for infrastructure to replace the US dollar bank, Atanu Chakraborty, projects. China is also as the world’s popular Secretary Economics Af- likely to use the oppor- global currency. In order fairs, is an alternate gov- tunity to transfer funds to achieve this, it has a ernor. from U.S. treasury bonds monetary and infrastruc- to more remunerative in- ture plan. The monetary The BRI is key to PRC’s frastructure projects. The plan encourages both the emergence on the world current scepticism for use of the yuan in interna- stage. It provides an in- BRI is likely to give way to tional contracts and the vestment opportunity for more pragmatic embrace- holding of part reserves China’s foreign exchange ment, in Asia, Europe and in the yuan by interna- reserves, most of which Africa. Bretton Woods in- tional banks. Both these are tied up in low-return stitutions (IMF and World measures are expected to U.S. treasury bonds. It also Bank) as well as the UN make the Chinese less de- provides new markets for and WTO, should become pendent on the US dollar. China’s high-speed rail- more representative of way industry, construction Asia (China and India), in In 2013, the PRC firms and for cement, steel the emerging world order. P110

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS INDIA AND CHINA: ANCIENT BONDS NEED FRESH STIMULUS INPUTS BY NIRUPAMA RAO FORMER FOREIGN SECRETARY OF INDIA, AND FORMER AMBASSADOR OF INDIA TO CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES The India-China re- two of the world’s ancient “an almost inconceivable lationship, despite civilisations, have always crowd” turned up to greet differences, is too shared a cultural bond. him at the station, he was important to squander. This two-nation connect felicitated by a gather- The future should be built was never more highlight- ing of scholars led by Li- on a balanced partnership ed than in the reverence of ang Qichao, who spoke that works for a world or- Rabindranath Tagore. The of Indians and Chinese der that is inclusive, open, joint celebration of the as brothers, anticipating compassionate, devel- birthday of this great poet, the slogan of the fifties, opment-oriented, and re- artist, novelist and musi- but with much more intel- spects diversity cian -– a true Renaissance lectual depth and feeling. man – both in India and In Liang’s words, “We are OLD BONDS BETWEEN China with equal fanfare, brothers, India is our el- CHINA AND INDIA is a manifestation of such der brother and we are the While there would be ups bonds. younger. This is not only and downs in geopolitics, an expression of courtesy. with regional and glob- When Tagore visited We have got ample proof al competition between China in 1924, he said: of that statement in histo- nations, there are certain “Where is the difference ry… Indians did not covet threads that bind them to- between China and In- anything from China. They gether. India and China, dia?” In Beijing, where P111

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION gave us the sadhana (con- grievances, and rivalries, tionism and the retreat to templation, meditation, in the race towards glob- isolationism is the natural and focus) of freedom, al leadership or regional backlash from the disloca- and maitri (friendship). .... supremacy. Insularity, the tion. Many worlds are col- Rabindranath has come to chase of narrow ambition, liding. us from the country of our jockeying for spheres of elder brother.” Tagore re- influence, instead of inter- What is diplomacy with- sponded saying that India dependence -- seem to be out a strategy, without a felt a “very great kinship the preferred route. vision? And a vision must with China”, sraddha as he be defined by the goals called it, which translates The speed with which we plan for the future. to mutual respect, aware- the disaster, the anthropo- We have to think about a ness, and kinship. logical threat (a definition future when we chart a coined by French Presi- vision and plan a strate- Tagore’s ideal was the dent Emmanuel Macron gy. What is the future we universal human spirit recently) that is COVID-19, want? It is not about kick- linked by reason and ra- has overwhelmed all na- ing the can down the road. tionality and rising above tions and it should induce Two to three years from the narrow confines of na- much greater sobriety now, what is the world we tionalism. Today, as every in the way nations think. want to see? corner of the world is rav- Sadly, there is a game aged by a virus, the world of global finger-pointing, THE COMPLEX EQUA- needs to be reminded of and countries such as the TION the need for rationality, United States and China, India and China have a for the respect of univer- the leading powers, have complex relationship. sality that rises above the also succumbed to this Both are Asian giants, but narrow confines of carto- exercise, infusing the cur- with an irksome frequency, graphic borders. rent situation with even their interaction is fraught greater complexity. The with tugs and pulls, with CHALLENGES OF THE grammar of so-called dip- repetitive suspicion, and PANDEMIC lomatic language has de- issues that have defied The world is on edge. It is scended into depths that resolution despite all the on the brink of what could reduce it to street insults. positive outcomes that be a cataclysm that is both This only compounds the capture media headlines societal and economic tragedy because “grown- when our leaders meet, which tests human resil- up nations are supposed informally or formally. ience. And yet, nations act to behave like grown- This year commemorates as if it is business as usu- ups”. Where there should 70 years of diplomatic re- al, continuing to pursue be convergence, there is lations between the two outstanding differences, divergence and dissatis- countries. While a pan- unresolved problems, old faction. Populism, protec- demic rages, there is news P112

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS that we are engaging in mine our future are ques- structive threats of con- confrontations along our tions of peace, not con- flict. The trade and invest- shared borders. flict. Both have to avoid ment relationship built ‘the Thucydides Trap’, al- over the last two decades New generations of though in the present con- must serve the cause of young Indians and Chinese text it has not been applied the peoples, not just mer- have grown up on a diet of precisely; the war between cantilist interests. The as- strong nationalism, quite Athens and Sparta cannot pirational youths of both different from the vision be a paradigm for a 21st countries must not be de- of Tagore, and despite the century Asia. nied livelihoods, skill en- processes of globalisation hancement, access to the that like a tide, have lifted The May Fourth Move- fruits of technological ad- up boats in both nations. ment was an anti-imperi- vancement and progress. Historically, both nations alist, cultural, and political Public health and educa- are not known to have movement which grew out tion must become the new practised hegemony, or in- of student protests in Bei- frontiers of cooperation. dulged in armed conquest, jing on that day in 1919. Cooperation in scientific rather we are purveyors The spirit of the young research, new technolo- of civilisational values, or men and women of China, gies that have mass appli- peaceful commerce, and who led that movement, cation and benefits includ- rich cultural traditions. But is remembered to this day ing in urban development looking back on the last --- their quest for scientif- and mass transportation, 70 years, both are seem- ic enquiry, modernisation, environment protection ingly intent on charting a development, freedom and pollution control, cli- course more in line with from bondage and equal- mate change and renew- habits and practices im- ity for all. The present able resources, bio-tech, ported from the Western generation too must be pharmaceuticals, elec- playbook, the precepts guided by that spirit, of tronics and communica- of Westphalia seems to constructive cooperation tions should form part of override the principles of rather than mutually wast- our bilateral relationship. equality and mutual ben- ing and narrow definitions efit, and the peaceful co- of interest. Hundreds of glob- existence of all beings al leaders and opinion that the great Sakyamuni THE FUTURE PATH makers have advocated preached 2,500 years ago. First and foremost, both the absolute need for a nations have to ensure COVID-19 vaccine, which Will the pandemic teach that there are self-correct- when developed, would us lessons? The India-Chi- ing mechanisms that are be available to all -- pat- na relationship, despite built into our relationship ent-free -- and produced at their differences, is too im- that will prevent it from scale, at no cost to people portant to squander. The becoming prey to self-de- everywhere. This ‘people’s issues that should deter- P113

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION vaccine’ should be a com- sible countries, that work During my tenure here, Chi- na and India established mon goal towards which for a world order that is a strategic, cooperative partnership for peace and both countries must pool inclusive, open, compas- prosperity. Since then, I think our people have en- scientific talents, resourc- sionate, development-ori- joyed more in-depth ex- changes and cooperation, es both human and mate- ented and respects and our two governments have coordinated more on rial. There is also a need diversity and the rule of in- major international and re- gional affairs. to institute an impartial ternational law. Both must Now, the COVID-19 out- inquiry into the origins of build middle ground in a break is posing a severe challenge to mankind. the pandemic so that its polarised world and stress While global efforts have come to a crucial point, cause and spread can be on the core values as a hu- I think solidarity and co- operation are the most unravelled and fool-proof manity. It could perhaps be powerful weapons to fight against the epidemic. protocols can be devel- the start of a ‘Himalayan QUOTE box: Viruses are oped. Consensus’ between India enemies of mankind. They respect no borders, and As the Canadian histo- and China that can apply epidemics do not distin- guish between races. We rian Margaret MacMillan to the world. are now in the same boat. said recently, the river of I would like to focus my attention mainly on inter- history is changing direc- national cooperation to fight COVID-19. We can WE CAN WINtion and the need of the win this battle by working hour is moral leadership. THIS BATTLE together. Multilateralism that es- China has taken re- BY WORKINGchews hegemony, needs sponsibility and provid- strengthening and preser- TOGETHER: ed support to the inter- vation. national community. We Organisations such as SUN YUXI have worked closely with international and regional the WHO cannot be dis- organisations, especially missed just because its INPUTS BY work during the pandem- SUN YUXI ic could have been better. FORMER CHINESE WHO is relevant to come AMBASSADOR TO INDIA up with sensible strategies to combat the pandemic, Iand to develop global pro- am here to talk about co- operation between Chi- tocols for mitigation, treat- na and India on fighting ment and prevention of the disease as also against fu- against the COVID pan- ture biological threats. demic. The future should be My three years as Chi- built on a balanced part- nese ambassador in India nership between India and left me deeply in love with China, as mutually respon- the land and its people. P114

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS WHO. We have sent many SINO INDIA TRADE RELATIONS medical teams to other countries and provided It is estimated that India is the third-largest pro- BILATERAL huge amounts of medical Chinese manufacturers ducer of pharmaceuticals in the TRADE supplies. What we have make around 40% of all world by volume. The country’s done is based on the be- APIs (active pharma- Department of Pharmaceuticals AS OF FEB 2020 lief of building a commu- ceutical ingredients) reported that it supplies 20% of nity of a shared future for used worldwide and global exports of ‘generic’ drugs. 85.17 mankind. China and India that China and India are both ancient civilisa- are the source of 75% India also produces 65% of the BILLION YUAN tions, with populations to 80% of the APIs World Health Organisation’s accounting for more than imported to the U.S. . requirement of DPT – diphtheria, $12 BILLION one-third of the world. So, pertussis and tetanus – and I think that we have all the tuberculosis, as well as 90% of TRADE reasons to strengthen co- its measles vaccines. DEFICIT operation. FOR INDIA March 18: India provides 15 So far, China and In- tonnes of medical supplies to $56.77 dia have been maintain- coronavirus-hit China compris- ing close communication ing masks, gloves and other BILLION and cooperation on the emergency medical equipment pandemic and control. at a cost of about Rs. 2.11 crore. AS OF FEB 2019 The leaders of our two countries have exchanged India relies on China April 14: Indian companies messages and telephone for about 70% of its and government entities place calls. We both believe in supply of APIs. And orders for 15 million Personal strengthening internation- for some well known Protective Equipment (PPE) kits, al cooperation. This re- drugs, such as parac- including gowns and masks, minds me of the touching etamol, amoxicillin and 1.5 million rapid testing kits story of Dr. Kotnis who and ibuprofen, India is from China. went all the way to China almost 100% depen- during the Second World dent on China. April 16: Of 1,70,000 PPE kits War to support the war of that arrived in India on April 5, resistance against the Jap- about 50,000 failed quality tests. anese aggression in China, and he sacrificed his life MUTUAL MEDICAL AS- nese provinces and cities in China. We should carry SISTANCE have donated medical ma- forward his spirit of inter- terials, and many Chinese nationalism and cooperate I have noticed that at a companies and charities with this spirit in fighting critical moment in China’s have provided India with against the epidemic. epidemic fight, the Indi- a large number of medical an government provided supplies, such as facial medical supplies to China, masks, protective suits, and the Indian people have gloves, and ventilators. I’m shown their support in var- sure that China will con- ious ways. All this valuable tinue to jointly work with support and assistance India, strengthen medical will be greatly appreciat- and health cooperation, ed and long remembered. and overcome difficulties. And since the outbreak of COVID-19 in India, we However, in a crisis like in China have shared the this, I feel very sorry to same feeling and have hear leaders or politicians also extended a helping complaining, finger-point- hand. China has, in a time- ing, or playing the blame ly manner, shared experi- game. Such moves will ences with the Indian side likely divide the interna- in epidemic prevention tional community, lead to and treatment. Some Chi- prejudice against specif- P115

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION ic groups, and ultimately distinguished panellists China, we have a lot of In- hurt the shared interests - from how we can fight dian companies in China. of the world. At present, I pandemics together, share There’s a huge potential. In have learned that the Indi- experiences, and how we the future, we should have an government has taken can support each other. more student exchanges. I strict prevention and con- The global value chain that understand there are some trol measures, which has we’re in, where we are in Indians studying in China, delivered positive results. the same situation and can there should also be more India’s victory in epidemic help each other. Chinese studying in India. control is of great signifi- We should have more tour- cance against the global I would just like to say ism. India is such a nice, fight against COVID-19. As that China and India really big, civilised, traditional a friend, I sincerely wish have so many similarities country with many histori- India an early victory. and so many ways that we cal sites to be seen. China could collaborate close- had 150 million outbound SEEKING ly. Firstly as Ambassador tourists before the coro- HARMONY Sun said we have a long navirus. So we hope more FROM civilisation - India is a long tourists go to India and SHARED civilisation and China has more Indian tourists come HISTORY a long civilisation - we re- to China. I think there are ally have a long tradition of many ways we can work - INPUTS BY working together. One of we should simplify visas, WANG HUIYAO the early Chinese returnees have more airline connec- PRESIDENT, was an Indian of the Tang tions - we should have CENTER FOR Dynasty and he brought more close collaborations. CHINA AND back Buddhism from India. Being the two most popu- GLOBALIZATION So we see a lot of cultural lous countries neighbour- heritage as well. We have a ing each other, we have Ithink we had a very ex- lot of similarities in terms every reason to collabo- cellent discussion this of urbanisation, rural de- rate and work together. As afternoon. We really ap- velopment, infrastructure, we said at the beginning, if preciate Ambassador Rao telecommunication, and China and India combined, and Ambassador Sun. now particularly we have it would be 1/3rd of the It’s very positive, it’s very to share with each other on world’s population. constructive, and it’s very public health fighting this forward-looking. And we coronavirus. I don’t see any potential are backed up by so many conflicts, basically, we’re As Wang Feng said, In- a peace-loving country. dian experts are actually There may be some his- really those leaders that torical misunderstanding, are collaborating with In- but I think now, with the dia. We have a TATA in P116

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS economy and all the things a great exchange. And so slowed China’s relentless going on, we have all the many people have viewed march to global primacy. reason to work together. this, and we hope we have If we really think about the more to generate on this. The first major shock two biggest giants in Asia So thank you again for par- was the approval by the we should really set good ticipating in this. National People’s Con- examples of collaboration. gress (NPC) of the PRC This webinar is a good ex- CHINESE of a new national securi- ample of how China and OPENING ty law to be extended to India’s businesses, public, GAMBITS Hong Kong. academics, and think tanks can work together and is a SYNERGIA The other significant good way to exchange. I FOUNDATION issue was the India-Chi- hope that in the future we RESEARCH TEAM na border flare-up. While can continue the dialogue. border stand-offs during We should try to seek com- While geopolitics the summer months are mon ground and minimise is not hostage not extraordinary, it is the the difference. I think the to pandemics or scale and choice of loca- economic dividend be- any other act of nature tion that has caused rip- tween the two countries and tends to have its own ples amidst strategic cir- will unleash more desire to dynamics, the recent po- cles. These two incidents collaborate for both coun- litical and military moves are not in isolation. The tries, we need each other. made by China have left Chinese have been active the world with a degree of in the South China Sea China has a lot of experi- unease. With the pandem- too, sinking a Vietnamese ence gained from its dense ic still on, China watch- fishing boat; threatening population. That experi- ers have been surprised a Malaysian offshore oil ence can be exchanged by its aggressiveness so platform and has been ad- and can benefit India, and soon after its Wuhan cri- monishing Taiwan. India’s experience can ben- sis. Recent Chinese gam- efit China. I’m glad we had bits send signals that the VICE ON HONG KONG a very good discussion this pandemic has in no way It has always been Bei- afternoon. I want to thank jing’s contention that the Ambassador Rao and Am- unrest in Hong Kong has bassador Sun, and all the its roots overseas. With distinguished panellists. the new security law for I want to thank my friend Hong Kong, it intends to Tobby Simon as a coun- plug the “foreign inter- terpart to co-organising ference” in the politics of this and my staff for put- Hong Kong. With Chinese ting this together. It’s been proclivity not to dither once a decision has been P117

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION made, it is feared by those freedom of speech and tracted significant invest- who cherish the unique political activities. Vide ments. So, does the new freedom enjoyed by Hong article 18 of Hong Kong’s law spell the doom for the Kong despite being part mini-constitution, the PRC ‘one country two systems’ of an authoritarian State, is restricted from applying principle? In any case, Chi- that within a few months, its mainland laws on the na has been assiduously the new law would be ef- territory, except those re- nibbling away at the au- fective. The Bill will per- lated to national defence tonomy of its city-state for mit Chinese national se- and external policy. some years now and per- curity organisations to set haps, the unending mass up their agencies in Hong The dual standards for protests have forced its Kong, thus extending their Hong Kong have suited hand. reach over Hong Kong. China’s economic inter- ests as Hong Kong was Chinese Premier Li When China regained the ‘golden goose’ that at- Keqiang assured the inter- sovereignty over Hong national community that Kong from its colonisers, principles would remain the British, in 1997, the intact. “’One country, two deal was finalised under systems’ is China’s basic the ‘one country, two sys- state policy, the Central tems’ principle. This en- Government has all along sured that Hong Kong, for fully and faithfully imple- at least the next 50 years, mented (the system)... in would continue to have an which the people of Hong independent judiciary, a Kong govern Hong Kong separate legislature, and with a high degree of au- tonomy,” he said. TENSIONS ALONG HIMALAYAN FRONTIERS P118

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS In a serious flashpoint, a The dual standards for nomic espionage. large PLA contingent in- Hong Kong have suited India’s response to the truded into the Galwan China’s economic Valley in Ladakh in June interests as Hong Kong intrusion has been muted 2020. This area is well was the ‘golden goose’ as obviously the govern- within the Indian side of that attracted signifi- ment is keen on de-es- the Line of Actual Control cant investments calating at the earliest (LAC), which although not and get on with the fight demarcated or delineated mainland China”. It has against the virus. Presi- yet, is accepted by both threatened to revoke the dent Trump’s offer on Twit- India and China as a work- special status afforded to ter to mediate, surprised ing international bound- the city-state. This, mar- both parties and neither ary. In response, India also ried with further U.S. sanc- responded to it. staged forward its troops tions, is a threat to China’s and upgraded its alert lev- economy. Worse still, it TIMING OF THE MOVE els to deal with any contin- would be fatal to Hong While these brash encoun- gency. However, there are Kong’s standing as one of ters may seem as if China other intrusions at multi- the world’s major financial is trying to utilise the sce- ple points along the LAC. centres. This is in line with nario offered by the pan- Mechanisms exist to deal the recently released U.S.- demic to her advantage, with such stand-offs. China strategy, addressing the overall picture is more the military threat posed complex. China too has its However, the size, com- by China, including its eco- plate full, and it is illogical position and level of pre- to burden itself with addi- paredness of Chinese tional challenges. Presi- troops in the Galwan Val- ley indicate their intention to dig down and hold po- sition. INTERNATIONAL REACTIONS There has been wide- spread criticism in the western media on the Chi- nese action. The U.S. was especially vociferous in its criticism, claiming that “the NPC’s decision means Hong Kong is no longer po- litically autonomous from P119

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION dent Xi Jinping is on record force is not the solution. caped China’s notice, and reasserting the same. The Indian External Af- the recent culmination of fairs Ministry spokesper- a strategic road project in Are these sudden ag- son Anurag Srivastava the Shyok Valley leading to gressions a smokescreen stated, “We are engaged a forward Landing Ground for the larger looming is- with the Chinese side at Daulat Beg Oldie, close sue of accountability for to peacefully resolve it”, to the Galwan Valley, could the origin of COVID-19 while his Chinese coun- have been the trigger for and concealing its pres- terpart Zhao Lijian said, the Chinese intrusion. ence? Beijing has im- “We are capable of prop- “The military skirmishes posed a massive 80per erly resolving the issues and stand-offs with India cent on Australian barley between us through dia- seem to reflect Beijing’s imports for five years due logue and consultation. calculation that India’s still to Australia pushing for a We do not need the inter- increasing Covid-19 infec- coronavirus investigation vention of the third party.” tions, coupled with its eco- to establish Chinese cul- nomic downturn, places pability in its rise. These India has over the years it in no position to wage a actions are apparently upgraded infrastructure border conflict,” according viewed by China as defen- along its northern borders to Brahma Chellaney of sive to safeguard its na- to make it compatible the Indian Centre for Policy tional interests. with its rapid deployment Research. strategy. This has not es- As regards the LAC, P120

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS Conclusions demonstrated the fra- interventions. Proper gility of supply chains account should be The pandemic was the and prompted coun- taken of trade-health perfect opportunity for tries to protect national linkages, and those that the ‘global village’ to interests rather than deprive buyers of med- pitch in with all their cooperative interna- ical supplies must be combined skills, re- tional ones. There is lifted in times of crises. sources, and technical a need to establish expertise to wrestle contingency plans for The self-centred ap- with a virus that does natural as well as man- proach in dealing not respect political made disasters, and with the pandemic boundaries. Sadly, applying time-limited has weakened even the world powers, the emergency measures. blocs like the EU. It powerful multilateral has exposed the deep agencies, and even Post-COVID, there is a social inequalities and regional trade blocs need to look into how animosities between failed mankind. systems are built, make member States. If bloc them resilient, ensure members fail to come The East has shown alternative supply to the aid of the a stronger face in the chains and diversifi- worst affected mem- fight against the pan- cation of sources, and bers now, then it demic, mostly due to create a portfolio of affects the quest the authoritarian gov- global crises that would for long-term pros- ernments it features. require all countries to perity through inte- While the current pan- have all hands on deck. gration, unity and demic may not official- economic cohesion. ly establish the shift Trade blocs help by from West to East in providing a safety net Multilateral institu- the short term, yet the of sorts and work to- tions have to step up way the pandemic has wards building stronger to prevent restrictive been handled by Asia relations, which come trade practices. From does pose a challenge in handy during crises. the beginning of the to the long established year up till March 21, western dominance Trade bloc policy should 46 export curbs on in world affairs. enhance the effective- medical supplies have ness of public health been introduced by The pandemic has 54 governments, cre- P121

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION ating a shortage of shared by its members. labs have an immense essential supplies. Now is the time to responsibility to secure make a realistic as- them from leakages. India delivered Hydroxy- sessment of the im- chloroquine to nearly 55 pediments and draw up The new Chinese law countries. It also lifted measures to mitigate it. may undermine Hong the export ban two Kong’s legal, financial weeks after enforcing it. BIMSTEC has gener- and political systems But India requires help ally remained in the and threaten to jeop- on devices, like venti- background of regional ardise its ranking as lators. Ease of trade dialogues and interac- an international during trying times is tions. It must focus on financial hub. key to ensure no one enhancing its visibility China has no doubt country gets left behind. in public conscious- that the unrest in ness and “market itself” Hong Kong is being BIMSTEC during the to potential investors, fuelled by external last two decades has who may be looking for forces and fanned by failed to live up to its alternatives to China. a partisan western expectations. The eco- media. It wishes to nomic benefits have Most populations in tighten its reins over continued to elude conflict zones are al- the city-state before millions of its citizens ready heavily dependent it is too late and the despite the proximi- upon international aid virus of mass protests ty and huge markets agencies and donor infects the mainland. governments for food, medical supplies, shel- The LAC tensions ter. These agencies with India may be Chi- need to leverage their na’s way of sending prior acceptance and a strong message to influence to ensure cop- its neighbour over the ing strategies against abrogation of Article 370, which changed COVID-19 are im- the autonomous status plemented in these of J&K, and hence the conflict zones. Coun- dynamics of the terri- tries dabbling with torial disputes in Aksai bio-weapons in their Chin and Pak Occu- pied Kashmir (POK). P122

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS CHAPTER V P123

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION CYBER DOMINATION POST-COVID-19 SYNERGIA a mutual assistance pro- waves. It is now predicted FOUNDATION gramme that would help that the rate for COVID-19 RESEARCH TEAM utilities restore service af- could be as high as 20- ter natural disasters. 50per cent. Critical Infrastruc- ture (CI) entities are ABSENTEEISM AND In the last 100 years, bound to feel the af- CROSS DEPENDENCIES there have been significant termath of the pandemic. The outcome will depend advances in the complexi- It is estimated that up to predominantly on the ex- ty, architecture, and inter- 40per cent of a compa- tent of absenteeism, the dependency of our critical ny’s employees could be degree of know-how re- utilities. Before electric- sick, quarantined, or might quired to maintain utili- ity generation, transmis- stay home to care for ail- ties, and the proportion sion, distribution, and ing family members. Ven- of the community that consumption operated in dors and suppliers that can be rallied into action silos, functioned at differ- companies rely on could as required. Statistics at- ent frequencies, and were experience similar short- tributable to seasonal and often confined to cities ages. Given the protracted pandemic influenza from and immediate suburbs. impact of a pandemic, it the Canadian Labour Today, the interdependen- would be difficult for or- Force concluded that ab- cy of goods and services ganisations to depend on senteeism rates were ap- i.e. water, electricity and proximated at 12per cent power, transportation and for seasonal influenza be- shipping, communication, tween 1997-98 to 2008- fire and emergency ser- 09, and 13per cent for vices, food and agriculture the two H1N1 pandemic and public safety, with the healthcare sector is criti- P124

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SYNERGIA FOUNDATION Estonia also managed by hyperactive scamsters rum’s Global Risks Report to detect the 50 per and hacksters under the of 2019 ranked cyberat- cent increase in the guise of COVID-related tacks among the top five Cert incidents themes. risks. It is not surprising triggered by hyper- then that the value of the active scamsters and A remote work environ- cybersecurity market is hacksters under the ment will add another lay- estimated to grow from guise of COVID- er to CI. This environment US$ 112 billion in 2018 to related themes will grow in size and signif- US$ 281 billion by 2027. icance as corporates real- ducive for a cyber-attack. ise its efficacy and value. Without effective se- A targeted attack on the curity measures in place electricity supply of any INTER-SECTOR and the cooperation of major electric grid for 48 DEPENDENCY the public to use them, hours can cause incon- While the internet has cyberthreats would un- sistencies in the supply of made CI more complex, dermine the stability of potable water in any major the impact of a single modern-day societies, city in the subcontinent. point cyber-attack could making digital technol- be spread over various in- ogies a source of risk AN ESTONIAN terdependent sectors of rather than development. PERSPECTIVE the economy/ business/ Security in this form, for “COVID which required government, leading to a users, should not be at physical distancing proved collapse of multiple sys- the cost of their privacy that Estonia had made a tems. The 2017 Wanna- or wallets. The private wise choice in investing Cry ransomware attack on sector bears significant in digital services,” said the UK’s National Health responsibility for develop- Lauri Aasmann, Director Service is a prime exam- ing and improving new cy- of Cyber Security, Infor- ple. Lasting over several bersecurity methods for mation System Authority days, it disrupted the en- the services and products of Estonia. “Even today, tire NHS functioning with they offer, along with col- all the public sector is over 19,000 appointments laborating with the public working successfully from being cancelled. Similar- sector. their home offices and all ly, in Denmark, the head- the public services are up quarters of Maersk was When it comes to build- and running.” Estonia also brought to a standstill by ing a functioning digital so- managed to detect the NotPetya malware, caus- ciety, Aasmann draws on 50per cent increase in the ing disruptions at ports the Estonian experience. Cert incidents triggered worldwide. “Trust will be the corner- stone, and unfortunately, it TRUST BUILDING is very fragile. [.. ] security The World Economic Fo- cannot be achieved at the cost of the liberties.” P126

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS RESILIENCE IN THE NEW tainable advantage over cybercrim- WREOSRILLDIEONFCCEYBINERTSHEECUNREITWY itnraialTslhsaenrdeooiftsheadrlrmaucakglisocifouuansndadectrostrvasa.ncd-- WORLD OF CYBERSECURITY icnigneofsciynbetrhseecuUr.itSy.,bwy atosp alelasdo- ries out tests to develop the Ebola eartsthaipc.kWeed nebeyd brraenaksothme wmayrteh fttohhraatntcoybrbmreoraasledlceucardaietsyrtsiehsidtpopoteetaermcshso.nniLcaoatll INPUTS BY vaccine and performs early clinical odfeetnaeirlsgy oanf dfooirlmcoemrppanaiteisewnhtso saafytethraHt tMhiRs cdybeecrslienceurditytorispkaiys INCPIAURTAS NBYMARTIN, tprhiailss hofindgrucgsaamndpvaaicgcninsesuisninthge tusayonrdoCacefonrymsasbtnpaoeynlimrdcSaatt.taietttad.e,c[awk.n..sh}dicrthhehseaipysovsndeesoriiboniinulois-t- acbroeuatsdeefde,ndinagnitdself,thaarsgteo thianvge CTIHAERAFINRSMTACRETOIN Uth.Se., pwaasnadlseomatitcacakesdabydriasntsroamc- swomille lecvhelaonfggoev.ernHmeeanlttchacpaabriel-, HOEFADTHOEFNCAYTBIOENR AL wdtstaietaoicelrslneianotltefhodafottdrobmcirpsoreaeatryrddpaicbeaartausnitnetetnseidoatsmpmlsea.rf,atseolrwnaHaalMndreedR-, aiitncyttiteohnlrleotuchgrthouutahglhe plsarowom,ppeerorreptayol,rltypiohgnoaaotrde- SCEYCBUERRITSYECAUTRITY pmeoapclee,uantidceanlsou, gh capvaabcilictiiensetso GFCICREHSNQTTRCAEEN,ODUOKTFHE scaCymberuatstaecrkss ohauvte oifncrmeaosend-, daenfedndstohemfosretlvhesw. ill become aenyd. tBaregtewtinegewnillMchaarncghe. 1Heaalnthd- itvrnhyueitlnOhnigrenegitraroenairunidbsctealrpetetieoah,nsnebdisneugcmnltytyubwscrteoehamlraloastpoi’tlsoetrnaxesccahnlakieipsrtses-- NATIONAL CYBER cc2ea3ruet,,i2cian0ltse2,lvl0eac,cttcuhinaelepsrraeonppdeorstoryt,fopsrhttaahrtmweiasl-l waonrdks. wKheyy realaretiontshheipys tdoocionng- bthecaotmeitvudlneertaebclet,ebdut w4h,6o’s7c,8ar2ry5- sjsniutihdo?saetrmritnThsighechoc,aeuonslrddetmirpncaoacitorxleutrtnddgueeiinrrcaesal.,tlIepandoltnaefycdlyelibrgespee,crnrnsoocoee-t-- SECUheRrIeTYs,hUoKuld be a “flexible ienmg oautiltheactytbaecrakttsa,cks9a,n1d1w6hy aoref cpuarigtyanacdtiavitieasdavrae ngtoaodgewayws itlol definition” of critical infra- ntawChdoOehvmyaiVincdctI,hoaDigsn-etg1raww9ittie?.elgl rTimceh, aeajomnrrdleiyxltparuretromeepdaaoigfnaentcthdooea- bmuialdjoarnlyd rceolmlabaoirnatethaeppsroaamchees. tlitNenhoaeaoldiatrtrusowgureaepirlrpleolscyrioglhciafehannainitsnvaeg.utceioolns,nyaess,tsrewamchbiraicilrhtiotiucicenaasndl Tsthreucrteuress(hCoI)ualsdthebcehanga- infrastructure migrates to- Tttinhogtealfpliyerero“cnfieefnlpwectciixdotriehnibtnrsiletceaaiartnsel. agiFdninovefirignrfhaiegntxscrailttimusrioebupncltieno”-, LDwOifafCerArdeLsntAdNciofDufeGntrLreOienBstAhsLaevTecHtdRoiErffsAer.TeSnt Gtularsegsow(CraIn)gaaslartmhebecllhsarnigghtinugp samTe.hNeatuWreHoOf vulhnaersabilrietipesotroto- tnhptoooeexurtttshcoitneoetgtapthtoltehlpiyoeninbsngyehsescttawcaeulmursebtesh,wgtrolaeiosvcraaiuanttbnsegud.AilrTdFijiMusonsegsrt wmietdisilglrcashitntaeancsgftreofe,,waaasssrccdersiadtdimcifafalmeitrnetifannratcgssktercscutcaotrmuosr.ne- risk profiles, and if we are to design feoxrasmerpvilcein, gthoeverfirtehreiencmidilelinont RpEaSigILnIsE.NICnEtOhFeSEfoCuUrRtIhTYweek oRuEr SneItLwIoErkNsCboEthOnFationally and to- cinitizaenns.igThhitscgliuvbes riniseGtolaasngotohwer CoyfbAerprreisli,liietnsceawis psaortmofecyWbeHrsOe- gSeEthCerU, wRhIeTreYan attack in one coun- ppraerinnndcgeipnlaceyl.aoSrfmimcyiblbaererlsyle,lsctuhrreiitgyloh—gtistudiceps- cwsutirtahitfyf.theeWmohavileielracarycdbhdeirnrsgeecscusorneitcsyepdatenaoldsf tbCruyynibcsheanorfercxeoisustneitlniretiieansl,ctthhereeniaswt tepohaaawrvtehgoooleft styosttehmes otfofopodbseucpapluysceha, inloschaavte- speacusrsitwy, ocyrbdesr reblieainncge islethaekceodn-, ictywbroenrgs. eTchiusrisitbye.causWe wheilneeedcyto- bbeemrsinedcfuul oriftlyocadlieseadlsthrweaittsh. the aeldso bjuecsotmne eCIxdtutroingtthheis pneirgiohdt. - caelpotnthgatwisiftohcutshedoounsaadnadptsabbiliety- wcicnlloougruAkbds-,terwhenpaeaaobsrletlsdeayabdsysbietnuceBguimalrdritrpsiyanrcoguavtdniodhadeorNdruuaesottna--f trrlionoaetcgncioohgvnaeinorngtfngoirnogmwttcihotdohenissdrtaiuttcnhpiodtooinorssanoena.nndCadywvrbpaeirporreu-irpdrksealy---. overarching concept of se- pArTotMecstionfosrolusteiornvsi,cisntagtesotvheart sHilaiemntmorgearnsismatitohns dMo neodtidceipneensd PIcnPutPrhieItNyU,CKcY,ytBhbEeeRprSrirEveaCltUieaRsneIccTtYeoriiss btuhielt icnotonocuerpmtodtehl aantd oiusr mfoodceluosfecyd- tthherreeehams bielleinoanvcariiteitzyeonf sph. iTshhinisg oRnetsraedaitriconhal te(cHhMnoRlo)g,y sowluhtiiocnhs boenrseacudraitpytcaabnniloittywotrok icf hitadnoges- cdgaiismvtrepaascitgirnoinssuetsoitndogistathrenibpouattnehdememralipwcraaisrnea-, (ucfsiareerrrwaiaenldsls)aocacunetdsstpmerosacntesasgseteoms e(dsnuetcvchoenals-- wninoitgthhtchavoeepnrtdihvieattioiensn-ebscutioalrt.nIpdfatrhtpenrceeyrsbpheairp-- sctiepallecreodfentciaylbs, earnsdecscuamrityuse—rs torpolst)htoeacEhbieovelathvisa; tchceyinfeocuasnodn sreactuioritny oftoa bawnkitishnsottacnomdpaatinblde wraitphiditlsyburseinceossvemrodferlo, tmhenditisis- oduetpofemnodneeny.cBye.twSeiemn Milaarclyh,1tahned rpeesirlfieonrtmlesadersehaipr,lnyetwcorlkins,icanadl bcnrgoueoamtopngfptotiiashoinneanygsta.atisomoCinwteyhspobarodskesi.tornuI-tdrrneueisofssonttrirolidaiatenlegcnoepointnneetgonrrgtordoy-l 2tolsoef3ucw,gtp2ehi0spdi2ctl40hyi,c,6wts7hec,e8rhse2rea5yrpesieonlmatrsetteasmditlahtastoatetCsvaotOcehfkVastIf,aDoi9tl,o-ds111eod96-. readiness of change to create a sus- on traditional technology beTchoemWe HCOI dhuasrinrgepothrtiesd pien- crrioeadse. d attacks on its staff, scam- mofinAAgpcrairlme, ppitaoisgrantws.bIsnyotmhBee faWorurHratOhcwusetdaeafkf eNmeatiwl aoddrkresss, esaanldeapadsisnwgordps rboe-- ivnigdelerakedo, faloncglowuitdh-ethnoaubsalnedds bccstioieenorloeconsnnugaRsrivneioitsrgyeluutasor.taciHtnohhadno(mHssemdM, waesRortt)sraa,mkwtiinepthghsircooMhntthceetadahcriet--- there has been a variety of P66 P127

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COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS law enforcement agencies have the potential to inca- to send phishing emails need special access to get pacitate CI. In the Neth- claiming to have import- bad people misusing tech- erlands, along with a few ant updates, encouraging nology for harmful ends. other countries, it consid- donations, impersonating We need to show that we ers ‘Heineken’ a CI! trustworthy organisations, are trying to protect and according to the advisory secure technology.” In India, under the Na- by the Computer Emer- tional Critical Information gency Response Team of THE Infrastructure Protection India (CERT-In). CHANGING Centre (NCIIPC), creat- FACE OF CI ed under Sec. 70A of the There are many IoT de- SECURITY Information Technology vices that are being used Act, 2000, there are six —Alexa and your camera. INPUTS BY critical sectors: transport, All these are now coming LT. GEN. RAJESH PANT oil and natural gas, pow- as a part of your home (RETD.), CHIEF OF er, telecommunications, environment. Now, that’s INDIAN NATIONAL government, and strategic a cause for concern as CYBER (related to critical defence these can become entry CO-ORDINATION sector). The health sector points when you are work- CENTRE, GOI never merited this atten- ing from home. Then, if tion. you are using a VPN, there Can you clearly dis- is something else. There tinguish between It is best to focus on is a VPN aggregator with critical and non-crit- all threats, including envi- the optical switch opera- ical infrastructures in the ronmental and biological, tor. So, the whole security modern world when every- which would allow for bet- architecture has changed. thing is interconnected? ter planning and utilisation From there we come to With technology changing of resources. There is also cybercrime. Globally, it so rapidly, its intervention the question of interde- has shot up by 500per in almost every aspect is pendence between sec- cent. That is the change in making it difficult to allot tors. Tomorrow, it could data that is now being ac- priorities. be a sector as mundane cessed. This was bound as water supply and purifi- to happen when more and The U.S. has 14 sectors cation that has undergone more novices are entering that fall under critical in- immense digitisation, thus the cyberworld. frastructure (CI). The U.S. rendering it highly vulnera- Homeland Security guide ble to cyberthreats. A large number of apps on CI states that natural are being used in millions and manmade incidents THREATS DURING of smartphones, with us- COVID-19 ers having little idea about Cybercriminals are exploit- their security. Further, al- ing the COVID-19 outbreak most every piece of elec- P129

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION tronic equipment is today gagement, such as the in- what it will take for us to linked, be it medical devic- dividual level, enterprise, realise the value of data. es used by the healthcare sectoral, national, and in- sector or systems manag- ternational levels. VIRAL MIS- ing critical supply chains, and few of them are pro- PPP MODEL INFORMATION tected against cyber- threats. Labs looking for a There is no doubt that with- vaccine for COVID-19 are especially vulnerable and out Public-Private Partner- need robust protection. Financial online transac- ship, there is no way to tions have ballooned with over 50 lakh new UPI han- find cybersecurity solu- dles being opened. tions. But, even in the pub- MANAGING SECURITY OF CI lic sector, some industries SYNERGIA The end-point security is are private. Solutions are FOUNDATION not the laptop on which an individual works, but also provided by private RESEARCH TEAM his mind. Every individual needs to develop an inher- parties. With the start-up ent sense of cyberhygiene and security. The concepts culture and the incubators of security remain the same, whether physical or in educational institutions, Amidst the panic set cyber. You cannot address there is no doubt that the by the COVID-19 everything with the same private sector is playing an spread, the hard- level of security. So, the concept is to protect the increasing role in cyberse- pressed U.S. Health and core areas with whatever you have. In the COVID era, curity. As long as the solu- Human Services (HHS) our strategists are saying that we are entering an era tions are indigenous, and Department faced a dif- of e-globalisation. Threat intelligence sharing is very the servers are within the ferent threat — a cyberat- good. There is also a need to look into security threats country, at least in the crit- tack falsely proclaiming a at different levels of en- ical sectors we would be national quarantine in the P130 comfortable. U.S. While the authorities quickly went into dam- CHANGING FACE OF age-control mode, experts SECURITY are warning of a “steady With SwYoNrEk RGfroIAmFOhoUmNeDAsTtrIeOamN” of phishing at- being the norm, how are tacks with cybercriminals we going to implement preying on the information stWchayyeebinCegiOnrtVshIaeIDntcwdeueirraaai,rteoydueonr tsenstrrooianttlgeugautinisnotedsnraeasror?ef- Con es-tgalonbdalistahtieon.vTahlrueeat inotfelldigaentace. ssTFeharcaauTrcidrheniteegbyrieoCsthivosorekaermlaysptogmsaoaaoiidtnsde.dsteiihfdofeetnroeFlonoetofdklUeeivn.reSatlos.l Critical o$f5enbgailgleiomnenfto, sructheasdthaetiandtihviad-t tion enc uhaal dlevegl,oenneterptoriseC, saemctobraril,dngae- mitigati tAionnaall,yatnidcain.teSrona,tIiodnoalnle’tveklsn. ow respons is aimed PPP MODEL are warning of a “steady stream” of resilien phishing attacks with cybercrim- tems an There is no doubt that without Pub- inals preying on the information ture. lic-Private Partnership, there is no void. This is a new front in the war way to find cybersecurity solutions. against the pandemic: combating Caution But, even in the public sector, some rumours, misinformation, and fake as total industries are private. Solutions news swamping the internet. The digital-b are also provided by private par- extent of misinformation has com- critical ties. With the start-up culture and prove d cy, inclu

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS void. This is a new front in the war Conclusions against the pandemic: combat- ing rumours, misinformation, and Critical infrastructure protec- tion en- fake news swamping the internet. compasses prevention, mitigation, The extent of misinformation has preparedness, response and recov- compelled the WHO to launch a ery, which is aimed at augmenting website dispelling fake claims. So- the resilience of the people, sys- tems cial media sites are also flagging and physical infrastructure. false posts or removing them. Caution may be necessary as total depen- Rumour mongering goes back dency upon digital- based systems to run in history to the great plague, critical networks/systems may prove disas- which killed millions in Europe. trous. Redundan-cy, including some based The ‘Black Death’ was attributed to on old legacy systems, would be prudent. the Jews provoking ostracism and Wired/OFC-based communication systems violence against the community. In are good examples of such redundancies 1950 in East Germany, a Colorado to the more popular 4-G/5-G systems. potato beetle infestation caused crop damage, and the country’s COVID-19 clearly demonstrates the neglect leadership was quick to blame the in public health and cybersecurity. Gov- U.S. However, the most widely dis- ernments have little choice but to invest seminated misinformation cam- in strengthening both system- atically. paign was orchestrated by the So- viet KGB in the 1980s, code named The real security responsibility lies with the Operation Detrick, which blamed individual user, first through the practice the U.S. for the AIDS virus. Similar of cyber hygiene and second, by using all conspiracy theories are doing the available tools like encryption, multi-factor rounds with the coronavirus now, au- thentication (like OTP, digital signa- with uninformed and scared social tures, biometric), VPN, among others. media users adding fuel to the fire. Improved communication between re- China and the U.S. have been searchers and the media will counter digital pointing fingers at each other mis- information and give scien-tific validity saying the virus was created as a of a health issue. When the next pandemic bio-weapon. The U.S. has also ac- strikes, accurate information will be just cused Russia of the same. A study as important as effective treatments. by the U.S. State Department said that about 2 million tweets were on conspiracy theories about the virus. Amidst the hype, useful nuggets of accurate information get lost. P131

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION CONTACT US +91 80 4197 1000 www.synergiafoundation.in Sambratha Shetty @synergiafoundation @synergiaimpact Chief Operating Officer @synergiafoundation [email protected]