COMPENDIUM

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS THE EXIT STRATEGY SYNERGIA FOUNDATION RESEARCH TEAM There are certain out- cial-distancing norms dered. comes which must should continue indefi- Testing: India’s popu- be looked into for nitely with wearing masks the exit strategy of a lock- mandatory. Enhanced lation makes large-scale down. testing should be adopt- testing unaffordable until ed. Based on emerging a cheap indigenous test New Vectors For Trans- infection patterns, selec- kit is found. The criteri- mission: While social dis- tive quarantine should be on for testing will remain tancing and masks are the imposed. New infections flexible with the focus on primary weapons against requiring hospitalisation symptomatic patients and spread of infection, the must be kept within the healthcare workers on the complete dynamics will established bed capacity. frontlines. change if the virus be- In the event of an uncon- comes aerosol borne. trolled surge, complete Cure: Even if a vaccine Similarly, its presence in shutdown should be or- is found, it may take more stool can make hygiene than a year to be available, of common spaces, es- by when the pandemic pecially in rural areas, im- portant. The Second Wave: In the absence of strict cur- few, the spread of infec- tion will be far more rapid in the second wave and may overwhelm hospital facilities. The government has to plan for a surge in hospitals. A New Normal: So- P3415

UNDATION SYNERGIA FOUNDATION dfoiafrrihsooamsSbpouituNaptli7aspa,1tto3iioo,9rn8nt6iangloIfHnvr-- eoamlth P t e5r-8Fnpmoeerrnctceenbtesda:sre, AIoCrfUmwbheeidcdsh, forces mes anodfastsruamiinngetdhatp5e0rpseronnel a nto hceavnvetidvoeefnttbihlaeatsoserisc,ICwUteraabreriidvnesing to ock- attohtptear2rcna5oo,iue5vnsn5tit6eirdmyreav(sSetenoftutoirlreafcotae1om:m7rsD,8as5tei0naafcohr St mis- o and fPrrotomyile-–c2hN0a1et9ico).knalanHdeaaltdh vice. F ons hSuopspporittalfsroomf thteheArmy a the Aforbrmcleeesd, ahFanovedrceiasf: epqoAourlmiepodfped wi e if rne. may have passed. Other rienced health workers tctoraatrnioncepeoldrrhaoevtoibedptoedesdrbpysakoosoniitfnctsesttlrr,aaaiitnnnaheinnyredgswyhcearne can pfrromomvideeedactiehcaSamtlastaefosarsnoedntl-asstietoer f the A ces, options include anti-ma- need to be protected. Re- quaallirtye-cahdecyk ahnad vaedviace.heavy ant. oFifettladheryAmrempdyiceaarrlesohaoinrs-pnpoiteratalls- for te ab- larial drugs which cannot serves have to be trained. ead pid be relied upon for univer- Since pandemics are here ver- gov- dosaziolgnaietptaphlelicraaaptpiyo;pnu;ss.epoosfsAibrtlei- to stay, this must begin e in now. nc- mftiacliGauarlpaGsIpdntsetr.ebdlal:iegTdermeneacdatemd:aenTendtrbdDeiegisait-- twmSteattaeeMitonneent:tiCpcOoDuanlfottiauisTisenhtmeniInmetNncspatltetaiiPmonolnaenadnnls/- CblOemV, IaeDn-nd19tif. eHrqeulaoiptewpdedevwkeiittsrh,, in an efi- uttwinseceetinonopamftiuepsnttrsbeeacnmidaouduseesboef-mtIenindfueiecctiotaonl rrirsaeete.ssoTwuhirlel ccIenodsni-- theeyaccahn cbeanmocbrilieseadtetospecial da- aprsecpioeusr mthediiscapl rreosotuorcc-ola.n Containment Policy hdoiaCt.sTOphoeVtsmIaeDndyic-wa1hl9ear,sesweintshIonifc- h can be es as per this protocol. for COVID-19 issued on thge eAnrmeerdaFlormcesedalriecaadyl reserv fec- tine have a heavy load of mili- March 4 by the GoI is a tary personnel for tertiary lBeBOvFTeOilgT:FThOtMiTElgom-cUOhapPlotMlywAlaPeo-trPUtcRhaOePheAlPalCAHlytHChPaPtdbferoRtcoctahueOdmdeAgegePnuCotiHdgwHerahlCipinchehislcealalfvyoasrereolaiun:st-, aetrmteLWeaetOrmsghpeeNeannccttGi.ya,Hl-eowTfawacEceehivlRicetiareh,MnsiancvfraSoener-TRleAaTrnE Etwraomcrkee,pirs/ooAlSwaHteeA, randthotereaatrtlatpchak-, wabrooetahrski.neTahrne/usArebSannHeeadnAdtortuorbael uCsOCeVdOIDa-sV19aI,gDwenh-ei1crah9l mciaesnditcbhaelat the ttirenatsc.kS,hifttraattecneti,onifsroomlatiem,plaemnedntetdrweiathtsipncae-ri- reaserver.esilient, robust, tmieePtrrnoosttestco.tirnSugrhaliafrteMaase.tdticeanl tityoaBnnudilfdirnUgopemnOuuitrmyH. eealtthrcoasre LOhNeGa-TlEtRhMcaSTrReAsTyEGsYtem. tSotafrf:uTrraailneadreanads.expe- Resources: Total capacity What wMe haavkeilenagrnt froHmospita Protecting Medical Staff: Proof: Indian govern TraP4i2ned and experienced health tals are notorious for th workers need to be protected. Re- of cleanliness and gen serves have to be trained. Since Without delay, COVID

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS The Indian Containment has to go up to make it ca- in an outbreak. Policy for COVID-19 pable of handling future (e) Hospital Expansion & issued on March 4 by pandemics. Some essen- Annexation - to address the GoI is a document tials for the same are as the surge of patients, which lays out broad follows: neighbouring sites and guidelines for infected (a) Hospital Biosafety & large storage areas should geographical areas, Hospital Infection Con- be identified. A written both in urban and rural trol – inclusion of hospi- memorandum to use such areas. These need tal bio-safety as a stan- spaces during biological to be implemented with dard feature in every emer gencies should be in sincerity and ingenuity hospital infection control place. programme. Assigning a (f) Hospital Early Warning the COVID-19 is that the bio-safety officer and cre- System - disease fore- ating written standard op- casting and early warning world needs a resilient, eration protocols. virtual applications could (b) Hospital Design & Con- be integrated into hospi- robust, and flexible health- struction - any new health tal management systems. facility has to consider the It will provide time for care system. possibility of treating pan- pre-emptive action. demics. Previously built (g) Hospital Epidemiol- Making Hospitals structures may be remod- ogy & Disease Surveil- elled. lance – infection-control COVID Proof: Indian gov- (c) Hospital Ergonom- teams and intra-hospital ics & Rostering - Hospi- and inter-hospital disease ernment hospitals are tal workforce should not surveillance can help in be overburdened; duties identifying the sudden ap- notorious for their stan- should be cycled. Facili- pearance of disease clus- ties should enhance work- ters (like SARS-like pneu- dards of cleanliness and force comfort and address monia in Wuhan). fatigue prevention. Mental (h) Hospital Training & general hygiene. With- health issues should be Drills - Even a basic pro- addressed. gramme of routine training out delay, COVID specific (d) Hospital Stockpile, Bio- and frequent drills provide logical & Antidotes - Phar- a reasonable deterrent hospitals have to create macies can store an added against any unknown stockpile of experimen- pathogen. Simulants and negative-pressure wards; tal drugs, antidotes and surrogates can be used to monoclonal antibodies. train hospital staff. filter protected central Many repurposed drugs (i) Hospital Decontamina- can be given as ‘first-use’ tion & Disinfection - De- air-conditioning; and have entrances which automat- ically screen and disinfect entrants. Selected private sector hospitals also need to be financially supported by the government to be- come COVID-proof. Investing in a Robust Public: Healthcare System The share of public health- care in the national budget P43

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION contamination and disin- Conclusions fection of hospital sites pose a serious challenge. While designing an exit strategy, it must be remem- Based on the character- bered that while we can borrow best practices from istics of the pathogen, other countries, a single ‘gold standard’ does not plans for various forms exist. Our coping strategies will vary. In India, the of decontamination with ‘Kerala model’ or the ‘Bhilwara model’ will need to be approved biocides and re-engineered for a hilly, underdeveloped State like surface disinfectants Uttarakhand, or a densely populated State like Bihar. should be in place. (j) Hospital Laboratory However, our research points to five major focus Network - A chain of al- areas: lied hospital microbiolo- gy laboratories can act as (a) Proactive Leadership Inspiring leadership at the sentinels in the time of an apex level makes a difference. Leadership must en- outbreak. They can great- courage trust in the community. It is only when trust ly aid in early identifica- is achieved that contract tracing, aggressive testing, tion and drug sensitivity and building shelters become effective. We need to panels. Forensic micro- build cohesiveness within our cultural and economic biology could be used to diversities. identify genetically-modi- fied organisms. (b) Quality of Nursing Care and Primary Health (k) Coordinated Re- Workers The battle is not yet over. Frontline health sponses -The recently workers and professionals will win the day for us. passed National Medical This has been one of the contributory factors behind Commission Act should Kerala’s low death rate. be amended to include coordinated responses (c) Healthcare as an Investment Like national de- in such a crisis. It could fence, public healthcare too is an insurance for the function as the com- survival of the State. COVID-19 has clearly driven mand centre. Central and home this message. The choice lies with us. State agencies should be placed under this com- (d) Leveraging Digitisation to Combat Pandemics mission. Countries with superior digital access can muster its (l) GPS Uses - Geo-tag- resources in a coordinated and effective manner. In- ging, QR codes for medi- dia, with a significant footprint in the digital domain, cal services, and mapping can also leverage its power. strategies can help local governments efficiently (e) R&D Home-grown R&D in the medical field is conduct their operations. critical. Even if some countries find a vaccine, the economics involved would lead to delay and costs. We have to pitch our R&D for cures at the global lev- el, coordinating and cooperating with the best scien- tific minds across the globe. P44

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS PANDEMICS: A NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERN INPUTS BY TOBBY SIMON FOUNDER AND PRESIDENT, SYNERGIA FOUNDATION Stating that prepared- Article written by TOBBY SIMON, ness is the only key published in solution in address- ing outbreaks, Mr Tobby BioSpectrum, October 2014 issue Simon, founder and chair- man, Synergia Foundation, army, preventing it from Ingenuity, knowledge, highlights that the genesis achieving key military ob- and organization alter but of national security is the jectives. It is not only the cannot cancel humanity’s preservation of the state general population that is vulnerability to invasion from physical threats. threatened by disease, but by parasitic forms of life. the military as well. Infectious disease which Thucydides, in his 5th-century publication, The History of the Pelo- ponnesian War, mused about the profound ef- fects of the plague of Ath- ens on power, conflict, and governance during the war between the Athenians and the Peloponnesians. He describes how, during the Peloponnesian wars, disease demoralized the Athenian people, under- mined the political lead- ership, and wakened the P45

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION antedated the emergence cently, the Ebola outbreak Asian) and International of humankind will last as led to the collapse of the level and developing plat- long as humanity itself, national health care sys- forms that permit interop- and will surely remain, tem in Liberia. erability with countries one of the fundamental and regions. parameters and determi- Improving detection • Effective communication nants of human history. through bio surveillance among healthcare profes- is the key to stopping ep- sionals and public The genesis of nation- idemics and India must • Effective strategies for al security is the preser- increase its funding and successful implementa- vation of the state from focus on improving both tion of surveillance, mon- physical threats. However, domestic and global bio itoring, risk assessment in today’s globalized so- surveillance capability. and an efficient healthcare ciety, emerging diseases While surveillance and system. and their pandemic poten- developing early warning tial pose perhaps an even sensors are effective de- The Synergia Founda- greater national security terrents to combat pan- tion is a Bangalore based threat, disease can spread demics, we would recom- multi-disciplinary think more rapidly than the pre- mend the following: tank that has over three vious eras. • Strong leadership: Multi decades of experience in stakeholder and multi sec- strategic security. It has Preparedness not pre- toral coordination. Com- worked with several Inter- vention is the solution to mand and control should national organizations in this escalating problem. be based on existing infra- the past including Medi- Thirty four percent of all structure and continually cines Sans Frontiers (No- deaths worldwide are now strengthened. bel Prize 2000) and The attributable to infectious • Appropriate funding: World Health Organization disease, while war only ac- Multi resource capability in developing affordable counts for 0.64 percent of including finance, hospi- treatment regimes for Ma- those deaths. The Spanish tal resources, and prepa- laria, Tuberculosis, and flu epidemic of 1918 killed ration of advance vac- AIDS for afflicted patients approximately 5,00,000 cine purchase agreement, in Africa, South America, Americans, more than all technology, surveillance Asia and Central Asia. The wars fought in the 20th and ability to assess risk Foundation simulated an century. Consider the ef- dynamically. avian flu epidemic in Ban- fect of smallpox on the in- • Effective of planning galore in 2007 jointly with digenous peoples of North process: Broad and multi their research partners, America. Many argue that sectoral-level stake holder the Massachusetts Insti- they were not conquered representation, effective tute of Technology and the by superior weaponry or communication channels Indian Institute of Man- forces, but by their lack across sectors, planning agement, Bangalore. of natural immunity to Eu- both at a regional (South ropean diseases. Even re- P46

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS TASSTATOOTDDYYAANNLLPPEEEETTWWMIMINNLOLOGIGIRFFREEEES--S aoPDnfARdcaONTseaXGsmIEaMirlReNISiTandYMu Aa—hNaSrtDaastehCstOrwaV,itDhIDeclhiti-, cwdlaoaimtfyefmoedfruleianfneirt.ecyaetsoiislaetrisen, catrhtoweridsninkag,tutihsreea of the density. A report Those who would give up Ries thuartaalrse mocetireotpieolsitaannhdutbhs.oVsaset essential liberty to purchase a little DbIyFFCEiRtyINLaGbEXsPhOoSUwRsE RthISaKtSin temporary safety, deserve neither slumisnlikereDmhaoratvei inmMouumnbtaai ianre- iTNnhheeawbniatatYunortesrkho,favetemhaeplboecyamarisennegtsoonfattrhheee liberty nor safety toicukWsinhgaitrleiemaaelslbd,oewmnsbhesel.yrepospuplaatcede airs- rnisokt of hexigpohsurien. Saunibtaetiro-dn ewnosrke- – Benjamin Franklin enaostaarecaot rnisskt,rtahiendt,ifaferreensche oiswin- eMrsa, nmhuantitcaipnal, crlaeathneerrs, ihnosptihtael tinhegnaatmureuocfhthselodewnesirtyp. Aacreepoorft kiglsneaeureshbcpsaahrodgmueer’dsanciwissstpyaeoycs.tloeheTrauehsn,etearaennBrddirsboloilotvinthertxeaolerbusle,eagfw,fnhaohrrdsoet PROSXYINMEITRYGAIAND COVID tMbsuhypraebCrnceaihatsayanetLdtsaa,asbnrbl,seuuhnmrotoawtctshshloetighrsahaetriinenilnyuNbptnheeaorew-ctdYkleoenessrsskode-, tQouadedernesss.theItse tihsreaetss asserneptoiartlelyd dfoenrsteunouatteer.boTrhoueghms souscht acsetnhe- bthyetherCicohalitaionndof Hpuomoarn Ndeivedids,ea RDANFGOEURNSDATION Btrraolnxaanndd Qdueeennss.eIt cisietisesesntiaarlley cwwoohlrlekiccinthigontuooglfteintmhaetiarottnoeapllyroormgeaoxntpiesopatusiboelniscs REuSrEaAl RsoCcHietTieEsAaMnd those in tmthhaeetreilcyohneaxenpdsopseotshortahdteivirihdvaeuvwlneheircbahbeuilelittniy- ptholeiciires.vulnerability to the remote mountainous areas, tmo tohsetsparfefaedcotfevidru. sIens.India, the sprMeaandy solufmv-idrwuselelesrs. are closely where space is not a con- higAhsepsetr Innudima’sb2e0r11oCfencsauss,e6s5 bcsCtouaensfAinnfneassectsuttsehs,dbpe,eweria6itrtitlh5whetaIhynpmeodsrttiirtalaealtiirn’osossnnap,notdr2htpoea0tetbh1iooue1nsr- straint, are showing a much slower mmbaaarnionelsdlitpoionTntphapurMmeelaaotatpiielolhnenNae(dlr1aia7vdapesreuheirntc—trsehalneu,tSm)Dltosoaw.eftT-leuhihnrsie--, sptlaetio(n1, 7apnderthceeanirtp)orot.f Muurmbabani cwoimthe gchiettiteoss, twhitahtliattrle amcceestsroto- ahTpaohssipetzhauebmllaseetocinosountnmdtbblheiuvrrseeieoasfttienDainhrpaesrodlaurvtm,iaainrsned-. puTarhbcoeansoefslsuwpmrhesaodar,webounutotlcdlsoogseiflvoyertpuuancpakteed. bWlpiakoisteilhcitDascahonnmaitmrhaatuuivonbinistiyna.nwMdVaawutesamrttetbrasapslusuipamapnrlesyd. Teshesemnotsitacl elinbterarltyantdodpeunsre- cities the low-income ghettos, afscerahcetfateehsdtee.yIo,nandIeenlsitdstthielaear,ttvthheeeamvhneiegpbhieoteehrsnaet mnrryuomstbaefr- ticking time bombs. liberty nor safety with little access to basic – Benjamin Franklin While all densely popu- P24 P47

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION sanitation and water sup- the porters and other staff tion is by shutting down ply. With community water at the railway station, the non-essential services, taps and community toi- bus station, and the air- restricting congregations, lets, crowding is a way of port. Mumbai has the sec- allowing government facil- life. ond busiest airport, and a ities to function in a skele- sizable number of Dharavi tal capacity, and ensuring DIFFERING EXPOSURE in mates work there. hospitals and grocers stay RISKS open. The nature of employment LOCKDOWN, of the inhabitants have a STAY HOME, Russia was not very spe- bearing on the risk of ex- AND PAUSE cific about its lockdown posure. Sanitation work- policy. A week’s worth of ers, municipal cleaners, SYNERGIA paid leave was offered to hospital garbage dispos- FOUNDATION everyone, and people over ers, and others, who keep RESEARCH TEAM 65 years were told to stay our city clean and liveable, indoors. Free transport are in harm’s way. There The most common passes were cancelled is little effort to address method to reduce to ensure this. Australia these threats as reported the spread of infec- closed its borders and en- by the Coalition of Human forced a lockdown, but left Needs, a collection of na- schools open, asking par- tional organisations work- ents to use their discre- ing together to promote tion in sending children to public policies. Many schools. slum-dwellers are closely connected with the trans- India and South Africa portation business, be it received flak for the way they enforced a shutdown, causing hardship to low- er economic classes who could not access rations and resources in time. Use of water cannons, rubber bullets, and lathis came under severe criticism. IN THEORY A 2005 report by Proceed- ings of the National Acad- emy of Sciences of the U.S. on H5N1 (bird flu), showed the virus persist- P48

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS ed in its birthplace (China) taken away in times of cri- who suspected he had the coronavirus, ended his life for nearly 10 years and ses, is it truly liberty? While in Udupi district of Karna- taka. had been repeatedly intro- it is essential to maintain Frontline workers have duced into neighbouring social distancing, severe to handle the social stig- ma attached to working regions, turning Asia into policing is equivalent to a with infected persons. Isolated from their family, a pandemic threat zone. fascist state. they are the most vulnera- ble group. In such cases, is a sim- After the SARS epidem- ple lockdown an effective ic in S. Korea, 20-25per cent of health workers had KEEPINGmeasure in the future? heightened anxiety, de- MENTALA study by Cambridge pression, and something University has suggested akin to Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). EQUILIBRIUMthat a method of ‘stop- Once we have defeated COVID-19, the health work- start-stop’ of lockdowns is ers will require psychiatric care. the best way to control the INPUTS BY pandemic, so that people MAJ GEN AJAY SAH (RETD) COPING STRATEGIES can also build immunity GEOPOLITICAL AND People want to know how after being exposed to it STRATEGIC ANAYLST, to deal with it, and experts in a weaker form. It also SYNERGIA say, “Stay positive, stay FOUNDATION busy, make a schedule and follow it, be involved suggests that two or three in the housework and dis- tract yourself from nega- Nlockdowns with fiveday ever before in the tive emotions by listening history of mankind to music, reading, watch- breaks could stretch the has entire popula- ing entertainment pro- slow down longer. How- grammes, revive hobbies, ever, the virus would still tions felt intense anxiety. etc.” Amir Khan, GP, NHS UK, says, “Take control return. Fully appreciating the ex- over your mind and have a clear structure for your tent of the threat, the WHO day, allowing worry only at COUNTERPOINT has issued a worldwide Andrew Napolitano, a for- advisory accepting that mer U.S. judge, accuses the COVID-19 crisis is gen- government officials — erating stress. The most federal, state, and local — common emotions faced of “totalitarian impulses” by all are fear, anxiety, and and argues that “no mat- panic. Every one cannot ter the state of difficulties, handle social isolation or whether war or pestilence, social distancing. the Constitution protects A suspected COVID-19 our natural rights, and its patient, isolated at the provisions are to be upheld Safdarjung Hospital in when they pinch, as well New Delhi, jumped to his as when they comfort”. If death. In another inci- liberty and freedom can be dent, a 56-year-old man, P49

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION certain times.” A suspected COVID-19 Wysa (created by a Banga- Experts recommend patient, isolated at the lore-based company) Safdarjung Hospital in three levels; get your New Delhi, jumped to AI now enables remote nerves under control, re- his death. In another diagnosis and monitoring. spond to the situation incident, a 56-year-old Researchers in the Uni- rather than react, and do man, who suspected versity of Colorado Boul- not let lack of knowledge he had the coronavirus, ders are applying machine compound your fears. ended his life in Udupi learning AI to psychiatry. district of Karnataka A speech-activated mo- Breathing exercises, bile app could categorise meditation, yoga, restrict- ments and creating self- a patient as per his/her ing your screen time, and help groups. Mobile apps mental health. Peter Foltz, the amount of information are playing a big role in research professor, Insti- you are exposed to can remote medical counsel- tute of Cognitive Science, be the key to your men- ling. Some useful apps said: “We are not in any tal health. Apps, online in use are Moodkit and way trying to replace cli- games and social media Moodnotes, Pacifica and nicians, but we do believe platforms are connecting we can create tools that people with friends and will allow them to better support groups, reach- monitor their patients.” ing out to vulnerable seg- P50

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS WORKING FROM HOME. IS THE SHIFT PERMANENT? SYNERGIA On the flip side, managers Artificial Intelligence (AI) FOUNDATION RESEARCH TEAM worry about remote em- investor and Google’s ployees working less or erstwhile top executive in WORKING not givbinalgancteh,erierdubceesstc,omwmhuiltee timCe,hinears,twohipleintoepsextehcuatitveAinI Cdhein-a, orking from home eramtipolnoyaaOaenbnnodedutsihtsberbremefamltitpioeinsrtsessifdoteerom,ctrphmomleoalyneliaenanegvbgseirro.owsn-owmrkoeirnnvdrtyge.islorumoeprppomitnreteecievshditnneshortaulsottpAgotiIicwvdaepleitvdleoeleplovoeebppolomeplpeleemnmtethtsnhawotnsair.olnleYtbhee-t The lreessaosronnot gMiviNngCtsheihr abevset, whioletheinr somtee ccahsenso, aluotgomicataioln mdaye-be FROM HOME(WFH) used to W IS THE SHIFTbe at best, some- PERMANENTthing workers took once been aebbmralepinlostytooeremsqimnugisi.cs kcollylabsohraitfiotn anvdelotipshewmosorekluninttigosno..nFYaouertotinnsoitnmanocuses,odTmroiyveointag Wor twice a week to beat to WFH Tishe trehaasotn tMhNisCs hhaavse beecnasetesch, naoulotgoy,myeat tniootnremplaacyingbethe the traffic. But n(oWrokFiwnHg,) uistefdriostmo be aathlbowemsate,ysathbbilseetheoansquailpcwkaalyyrssthbieoftefntoptWharFetHiorfistthhetaihrt e nfsoeoretdlhufeottriioma dnerb.iveFeinroga.rltoignesthtear,natcleea,st the only option lesfotmteothkinegewporkerps ltaoonkninpglannainngdandwwoorrkkcultcuurel,-whicThoyota is working on au- companietosrnacafefifcol.orBuatwttni.coeHw,aoitwwiseteehkvet-oonlbyetoaupttrtieohne, withsertiectshhteedciasunrdrtecenhtsanetxgepedderaienannncueda,llmy.aAntfoy- noARmeCsOeoaSruTcsh-EdFdoFnrEievCoiTnnIVWgEFtOHePcbTyhIOanNsoetl-of er, a de-nolevftotonkeeeepdcomtopalnoieos akfloatc. Hhoawn- gefidrms arenalnisue athlalyt .a loAt offtweorrk caongy,Styaneftornd oUtnirveerpsiltaycirnesgeartchheers, tahtehoewxpewremweiveeoenwrrwe,caoeoerndrkejko-ytnmoaotbvoomloera.nemkeeedatehtknoeel-eoxopketmarhtiehaenocnweycfubdmieerrarmrndeiaofsgnnewetrorsfrerkaoaniemndlxgishepoomeuemptreltioo,hefyleaenaeantcsdieotnaof,gfiwcbeoonentihs-re, eadNotthniaclftehaotoahrlcaesosramteBwpfldoaoaonrsrmiynvtoeaihnndreidfCafhehtilriistenmocnaoc,gelelseeihbnatoghpewure--eosd-, joyable. lot of ewveonrnkececssaanry. be done ing.ductivity among the WFH group YEAS AND NAYS hcoanmHooefw,ewvloeerrm,aisdt ihwnaigsthalcbsooorpotophreanteiodnas and regular office-goers. It was also WFH is a good option in timfersoomf a found that people found it easier to YEAS ANDpaNndAemYicS, but the concept homldsaunpagqeuresstiaonnindg tehemnepeldofoyreweosrkersAat COcoSncTen-tEraFteFaEtChoTmIeV. AEdditionally, aerivsgekno. Iowt ahdlelonowpspufbtoilriocanhbeeatitlntehr wisotrnoko-tliwafet onlaidlgl.eenKrcaeii-f(FAuIw)Lieonevr,ekasnitnoArgratinfoidcuiGatloIongtleeOl’s-PTe5Im0OppeNlroyceeentaatmtriotniognthdeecWreFaHsesd, by WFH is and times of a pandemic, but of an office is even neces- Research done on WFH by the concept holds up even sary. a set of Stanford Univer- when public health is not However, it has also sity researchers, Nicholas P26 opened a can of worms Bloom and his colleagues, at risk. It allows for a better work-life balance, reduces with corporations ques- on a company in China, commute time, and is bet- tioning the need for work- showed that there was no ter for the environment. ers at all. Kai-Fu Lee, an difference in productivi- P51

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION ty among the WFH group the unorganised sector. W hile those living and regular office-goers. It As social beings, humans in the margins was also found that peo- working without any inter- have to count ple found it easier to con- action would feel cut off. each paisa, it is interesting centrate at home. Addi- It could also make them to look at how the so-called tionally, employee attrition prone to taking on more elites are coping. The im- decreased by 50per cent work than is needed, as pact on the mighty looks among the WFHs, and they employers sometimes use equally strong and real. Be- took shorter breaks, fewer the WFH option as a bar- fore the pandemic, the ma- sick days, and less time gaining chip to get people jority of elites were leading off. The company also to do more in exchange globe-trotting, fast-paced saved nearly US$ 2,000 for the comfort of work- lives. But these experi- per employee on rent by ing from home. Women ences that give meaning reducing the office space are also more likely to be to their lives have disap- needed. affected by WFH possibil- peared with the COVID-19. ities as they still have the Once this life “meaning” The study also found added responsibility of gets snatched away, what that in 2012-13, managers taking care of the home, happens? Humans have in the U.S., UK, and Germa- especially in India. On the an unfortunate tendency of ny were allowed to WFH plus side, those with chil- not appreciating the good for nearly half the amount dren would get more time that may follow a calami- of time, showing that this to spend with them. ty. While COVID-19 wreaks is could now be a main- havoc on the economy, stream practice. FRUGALITY, could it have a sobering THE NEW effect on the general con- Environmentally, WFH NORMAL sciousness of this planet’s has some definite bene- elites? fits. The U.S. Energy Infor- Inputs by: Sanjay Jaju mation Administration in and Deepansh Somani. THE GOOD THAT COMES 2017 saw that the coun- Sanjay Jaju is from FROM EVIL try used 391.40 million Indian Administrative This period of quarantine gallons of gasoline daily. Service, views has given us an oppor- Employees working re- expressed are personal. tunity to introspect and motely reduced gasoline Deepansh Somani meet our demons face to consumption, thereby re- recently graduated face, and attempt to ad- ducing greenhouse gas is passionate for dress them. With strong emissions. Behavioural Economics. positive implications on both the physical and MISSING SOCIAL TOUCH emotional well-being of Naturally, WFH would be people, this period has harder to implement in the service sector and P52

ng with- and attempt to address them. With on the roads spewing poison into feel cut strong positive implications on the air, it seems that by a mira- m prone both the physical and emotional cle, the virus has given the earth a than is well-being of people, this period break. Who knows, this might be metimes has seen an extensive rise in people the change that humanity has been bargain- more in alCsoOgeVttIinDg -t1he9irClifOe tMogePthEerN. DIUMseeking fToHrEaLwEGhIiTlIeMnAoCwY .OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS of work- are also Conclusions by WFH ave the Basic precautions like ing care social distancing will ndia. On be the new normal if hildren mankind has to sur- nd with vive. The government has to ensure that in the the poor are given the o count maximum attention. s inter- Staggered timings for water collection from seen an extensive rise in We all needed a course community taps and people also getting their correction in the form use of public toilets; life together. of a break from the P27 volunteers/local lead- pace of our existence ers to regulate the Many have started read- to re-define ourselves use of facilities; public ing books, auditing eating messaging to drive habits, taking up new hob- out a thought of nourish- home the criticality, bies, and tapping into cre- ing and nurturing it. are some ad hoc mea- ative reservoirs. We could sures that need to even call it a blind spot, Evidence of wild an- become the norm in as never did such import- imals and birds taking close communities. ant, but often overlooked to the streets is a sign aspects of our lives seem that they were unhappy We should also get a so clear. We all needed a with our monopoly of the chance to build im- course correction in the planet. With more than munity against the form of a break from the 1,00,000 flights per day virus if it’s here to stay. pace of our existence to and more than 10,00,000 Lockdowns are also re-define ourselves. automobiles on the roads not the most demo- spewing poison into the cratic way of handling MOTHER EARTH IN air, it seems that by a mira- a pandemic, and a REVIVAL cle, the virus has given the more thoughtful, peo- Empowered through tech- earth a break. Who knows, ple-centric approach nology, we have reduced this might be the change would be welcome. this planet as a commodi- that humanity has been ty for our commercial and seeking for a while now. We are experi- business activities, with- encing a phase P53

SYNSYENREGRIGAIAFOFOUUNNDDAATTIOIONN Coofnchcanlgue,saipohansesof The human race is ensure that work gets resilient; that is how it done in a more conge- disruption, uncertainty thhaousgnhotftulo, npelyopslue-rcveivnetrdic niafrl owmotrhkisecnrivsiirsosnumcceesnstf,ully. Basiacnpdreecvauetniolnitstlleikepsaonciica.l abpuptroraiscehnwionulpdrbime wacelycome. witWhFhHaispdpeyfienmiteplyloayceoencse. pt distWancitihngthweillpbaestsheagneewonf or- Wtoe raureleexthpeeripelnacninegt.aItphase Tetahmat ims heeeretintogsstasyh. Cooumldpanies mTthhaaelttiingtifmhomoeveeuap,nrronakonmisnreedawwnrhetearhgsosaivtuesoetttntiosnlueteehrnvdsesiv,ouewwr.een owf icllheanmgee,rga ephfarosemoftdhiissrup- besohorgualdncisasehdinpeonriothde-trend maxwimilul mreagtateinntoiounr. Smtaegngtearel d tciornis, iusnscuerctacientsysafnudllye.ven little icaalnlydfcoormeemuplwoyitheecsontingen- timienqgsufiolibr wriuatmer caonlldecmtioenntal to csytapylancsotnhnatepcrteepda.re them to fromwceollmbmeiunngit.yWtaepsnaeneddutsoe panic. With the passage of of ptuabkliec itnoisleptisr;avtoiolunntfereorms/lot-he face unforeseen circumstanc- cal lferaodnetrlsinteo rwegourlkaetersthwe uhsoe time, as we settle down in our atoorfefdatasrchoirvimeeleitierisheotwasom;doipcehruaoktbhclllseiycmacgmevroiaietnsiiscnugsargaleligitsvayine,bgso.ut es. They must ensure that work thatWneeedtotoo bneeceodmteothveisnuoarml- nWewFHrouistindeesf,iwneitewliyll aregcaoinn- in cliosseeocuomr cmounntitriiebsu. tion in ocuerpmtetnhtaatl eisquhileibrreiutmo asntday. WFgHetsndeoendesinwaomrlodr-ecclaosngsenial mCeonmtapl waenlilebesinsgh.oWueldnceeadshto infwraosrktreuncvtiruornem—enht,igwhit-h happy the larger framework ltiiannkeeowninostrphkieerrasttirwoenhnofdroaarmenstdhtoecicforaomllnyte- spesehmeodpu,lloddyebepeeseo.nrgTdeaaanmbisleemdepeetriniogds- We ashgoauilndsatlsCoOgVetIDa -c1h9an. ce guopinwg iatbhocuot tnhteinirgweonrkcsyaving broicaadllybafonrde,mapnlodyeuensinto- stay lpivleasn. sWethtaoot pnereedpatorevitshuealmise tercrounpnteecdtepdo. wer supply, to build immunity against otourfcaocnetriubnuftioorneisnetehenlacrigr-er which may be sadly fcraummewstoarkncageasi.nTsthCeOyVmID-u1s9.t lacWkiFnHgnienedpsawrtosrlod-fcIlnasdsia. the virus if it’s here to stay. The human race is resilient; infrastructure — high-speed, Lockdowns are also not the that is how it has not only sur- dependable broadband, and most democratic way of han- vived but risen in primacy to uninterrupted power supply, dling a pandemic, and a more P54 rule the planet. It will emerge which may be sadly lacking in parts of India.

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS CHAPTER III P55

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION ECONOMICSS OF A POST-CCOOVVIIDD WORLD PP3506

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS GDP rating for India has arena has given rise to been revised from 5.3 per cent to 2.5 per cent. a fractured geopolitical Growth figures just out for the quarter ending landscape. Rivalry in a March 2020 paint a bleak picture. All multi-polar world has wit- major economies SYNERGIA have slid severely. nessed a more belligerent FOUNDATION Stock markets have RESEARCH TEAM at best been volatile, China impose its writ in fluctuating with every The concept of glo- straw of positive news East Asia. Russia, in its balisation was al- in terms of rate cuts ready under a cloud and stimulus package quest for the glory days of due to increasing income announcements gaps in the global mar- the Soviet Union, has open- ket. Capitalism, viewed as agreements, besides the the driver of globalisation, nuclear deal with Iran, ly challenged the West, is identified as the main and Trump’s undermining malaise. The wave of mi- of the WTO has adverse- particularly in Eastern Eu- gration from conflict-rid- ly impacted global trade. den areas of the globe to Trump’s unpredictable rope and the Middle East. Europe and North Amer- negotiating style and his ica cannot be separated threat of tariffs has alien- The fractured relationship from economic migration. ated allies in Europe. Tar- Migration is thus being iffs on steel and alumini- between the Organization viewed as abetting stress um on Germany are a clear on limited resources. Such refusal to recognise that of the Petroleum Export- fracturing of societies has the European Union (EU) given rise to nationalistic is a single trading block. ing Countries (OPEC) and movements that thrive on The U.S.-China trade war parochialism. Right-wing has seen only a temporary Russia, that is presently governments have found reprieve with the Phase 1 favour across continents. agreement in January this playing out with regard to year. U.S. President Donald oil pricing, has the U.S. in Trump’s ‘America First’ American withdraw- policy and demonising of al from the international focus. international institutions has led to them being de- Massive stimulus prived of adequate fund- ing. The U.S. withdrawal spending after the financial from international trade crisis of 2008 has created a debt economy that was already staring at a global slowdown. The leadership void created by the U.S. withdrawal from the glob- al stage adds to a least conducive environment to respond to crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. As professor Sridhar Venkata- puram stated in the Indian Express, “[It is]) unfortu- nate that the coronavirus pandemic has plagued the international communi- ty at its weakest moment where national politics P57

UNDATION SYNERGIA FOUNDATION more ces of be di- shut- and economic parochial- every straw of positive has thus been severely im- s and killed ism are upending the idea news in terms of rate cuts pacted. ss has retail of one global village”. The and stimulus package an- The crisis can be under- pact- con- coronavirus arrived into a nouncements. stood through different natu- ct on near-perfect storm. The obvious impact faces of the economy. On port- craft, of the total lockdown, as the demand side, a com- ally a This DIRE PREDICTIONS in India, is the shutdown bination of low income; Ger- h are Rating agency Moody’s of all productive activity, fear of contagion shifting side rmttherhaaapescnltayiynoeconaewers.oxfRifatogamrltieoispncbglauaeslpsftGoratDtohPIcnauodftonsiar”-a. rTeSasanhmvdeeaermslleefIeornavrrdirgcuee-essstsr.ieeMniisnset,idtaeshiluuaegmrdwroveoaoanrndnldddsteargstleeoipodwoenefnf.ordcOrirlnneopgvtsoehslle-sicbtshiooucofrpaidcpcleelocysrno;sstniurdsamaeidnd,peda-- s ad- ihnags: inbedeunstrryevriseeadligfnroinmg bouvseirn, ehsasvees beeenrasteiovenrse.lyThseudsdyesntesmtoptihnamt awnoufualcd- ham- el in- w5.h3epreer ceanutttoom2o.5bpielrecemnta.nuimfapcatuctreedr.sThe fniantaulrlayl feamll- ertguerinwgihllasdceapuesnedd moansstihvee s and aGrreowrtohllfiingugreosujtusvteonuttifloartorosuat nisd mrea-ssivepojolibticloasl s-leasdueprpslhy-icphaiinn tdhiserumptiaojnosr, onged ff2ttlauhe0crec2ett0u.qoAurripalsnlra,mtgieanramntjedoaanrsfdeakbicnssloehg. anTiMokohmnaeprirhceicehso-iuss,erienehssfso.oumwrIlmnteeaadvnInleuidnrj-i,oaab, hthuseegecceomtPnoeaoxrosoimsndhiutaiveeesssr.s which cannot be met by en in tuinofvawecnthutoarirtnycgsotuosclhdkuptbdieloeaws.pnMso,astni-f- awing lhitatvlee esllisde steovcehreelye.rSatboockut ionf mwihgaratnitsworkCeOrsVtoIDth-e1i9r ecroantainrueeadlrfoeradloyngeemr ethragn- ount, tmuarnrkientgs hoauvet attobebset baenenincvrilelaagseins.glSyuppliyn-sgi.dWe eilclot-hetwUo.S.maonndthCs,hwinilal rbeesualbt lien by far pvroolatteilcet, iofnluicsttuaetninvgirownitmh ennto.mJicasm, etshe wtoorlsdetoavesri,dewtohreldiwr iddeiffbeortetlnenceecsksanads er re- g ref- Crabtree, in the Asian Review, ar- initiate high-level talks? The Amer- t rate assive gues that complex supply chains ican administration should bear the me the ct on and Pj5u8st-in-time production meth- burden of responsibility for having isis is ods are vulnerable to shocks. In the disrupted an established, if imper- e. envi- current crisis, he opines that it will fect, world order. The capacity and ft the “hasten decoupling between the means to reform the system exists,

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS no major manufacturer pacted, a double whammy York Times states that builds all components in- unlike any other. The trav- “every disaster shakes house. They rely on sup- el industry, which includes loose the old order. What ply-chain hubs like China, airlines and hospitality, replaces it is up to us”. South Korea, and Viet- will be in a prolonged cri- There are many examples nam. On the financial side, sis. that are emerging: indus- capital flight has caused try realigning businesses a course correction in Financial markets have where automobile man- many markets, and vola- been in turmoil with in- ufacturers are rolling out tility has increased in the vestors withdrawing close ventilators and reflectors, foreign exchange market. to US$ 85 billion, at last and fashion houses man- This pushes emerging count, from emerging ufacturing masks. There markets to become more markets. It is by far the is, however, little else to vulnerable to the conse- largest capital outflow cheer about in what is quences of the crisis as ever recorded, with inves- turning out to be an in- fresh capital will be divert- tors seeking refuge in the creasingly protection- ed away from them. U.S. dollar. Interest rate ist environment. James cuts freeing liquidity and Crabtree, in the Asian Re- On the demand side, the massive stimulus packag- view, argues that complex shutdown of nonessential es have become the norm supply chains and just-in- services and stay-at-home across the globe. Its effect time production methods measures have killed on what is already a glob- are vulnerable to shocks. demand in general. Job- al debt crisis is not being In the current crisis, he lessness has constrained factored at this stage. opines that it will “hasten liquidity. The retail sector decoupling between the has been severely impact- The fractured geopolit- U.S. and China and accel- ed. India, which is largely ical environment had, by erate the collapse of the a consumer-driven econo- and large, left the exist- trade-dependent model of my, is naturally staring at ing Global Supply Chain globalisation upon which a serious impact on GDP. unaffected. The impact so many Asian econo- Even the U.S., a huge ex- of COVID-19 is bound to mies rely”. Companies are porter of primary goods call for its review. The rethinking their vulnerabil- like aircraft, weapons, oil initial impact of the virus ities. The pharmaceutical etc., is essentially a con- on China affected supply industry in India, depen- sumer-driven economy. of components and com- dent on China for 70per This contrasts with coun- modities to much of the cent of its inputs, is an tries like Germany, Japan, world. extreme case that would and China, which are ex- naturally come up for re- port-driven. The demand SHAPING THE view. side of the economy, like POLITICAL AND ECO- supply, is adversely im- NOMIC ENVIRONMENT It need not, however, Rebecca Soinit in the New P59

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION swing to the other extreme Epidemiological esti- 3.05 billion, according to where the genuine advan- mates state that the glob- The Tourism Authority of tage of cross-border trade al GDP is likely to shrink by Thailand, not counting is surrendered for polit- US$ 500 billion, which is other nationalities choos- ical considerations. The the economic price tag of ing to stay away. system that would finally the coronavirus. emerge will depend on the EUROPEAN TREMORS political leadership in the THE CHINA-CENTRIC Europe is more dependent major economies. ECOSPHERE on China for trade than the South Korea has declared U.S. Automotive sectors Pointers to what could an economic emergen- have stated that they are be a post COVID-19 era cy to limit the damage to weeks away from stop- are already emerging. Will the economy deeply in- ping production with de- the U.S. and China be able termeshed with China. Its pleting component supply. to set aside their differ- electronics companies, ences and initiate high-lev- automakers, and electrical Germany’s exports to el talks? The American ad- equipment-makers face a China last year stood at ministration should bear problem of getting parts ¤94 billion (US$ 101.6 bil- the burden of responsibil- from China for their fac- lion). These levels are im- ity for having disrupted an tories. In Japan, Toyota possible to match this year established, if imperfect, and Nissan have had their and the price will be paid world order. The capac- output disrupted while in- by its already stressed ity and means to reform bound Chinese tourism manufacturing sector. the system exists, but will has reduced immense- Before the coronavirus, leadership stand up to the ly. Japan’s economy has Italy’s economy was con- challenge? China is a glob- contracted at an annual- tracting at 0.3per cent and al supply chain hub, and ised rate of 6.3per cent in a recession was looming. disruption there under- the fourth quarter of 2019. Chinese tourists are a ma- mines output elsewhere. A recession now seems jor source of earning and Along with Hong Kong, the likely. Japan, scheduled to premier fashion brands Chinese trade surplus is host the 2020 Olympics in are particularly exposed. US$ 301 billion, which ac- July, has spent more than counted for 16per cent of 1.37 trillion yen on prepa- THE UNITED STATES the global exports. Even if rations. The U.S. appeared rela- the outbreak wanes and tively resilient by compari- these negative demand Vietnam is suffering son, but 2.1per cent (infla- and supply shocks fade due to its dependence on tion-adjusted) GDP growth into memory, the damage China’s supply chain link- in the fourth quarter of to China and the global ages and exports. Chinese 2019 hardly qualifies as a repercussions would be tourist fall could cost the boom. China exported US$ lasting. Thai economy about US$ 539.5 billion in goods and P60

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS services to the U.S. in 2018, end shopping and resorts banking sector too will according to the Office of are seeing falling footfall. take a severe hit with the the U.S. Trade Represen- Iran’s emergence as a hot RBI predicting an increase tative, which is more than zone for coronavirus has of about 10.5per cent in 21per cent of all imports made it complicated for NPAs by the end of the Q3 into the country. Chinese the economy which is slid- of 2020. The airline indus- tourists to the U.S. have ing deeper into recession. try is in grave danger of increased 13 times since U.S. sanctions have wors- insolvency. The industry 2002. A report from the ened Iran’s medical sector, contributed 1.5per cent to Tourism Economics states which has struggled to India’s GDP, an econom- that it is expected that the keep up with soaring pric- ic contribution of U$ 35 U.S. will lose about 1.6 mil- es of medicines and medi- billion, and supported 6.2 lion visitors from mainland cal instruments. million jobs. China. China was to lower its tariffs for the import of AUSTRALIA STOCK MARKETS millions of dollars’ worth Australia is the world’s That the world is one big of American farm products most reliant economy on market was made amply as a goodwill gesture to re- China, with about one-third clear by crashing stock solve the trade war. This is of its exports going there. markets in all major now likely to be affected. There are 1,60,000 Chi- economies as investors nese students; one-third sensed the impending THE MIDDLE EAST of the total fee of Austra- economic fallout of the China is the largest con- lian $32 billion came from virus. The organisation, sumer of petroleum prod- them alone. International resources, labour, sourc- ucts in the world and a students also spend on ing, and logistics are the slump in its industry will accommodation, food, key components that directly impact oil-produc- and other expenses. Fish- convert raw materials to ing nations. Saudi Arabian ing and tourism have also finished products and crude supply to China for been affected. move them to the end March has been reduced customer. The corona- by 500,000 barrels per INDIAN LANDSCAPE virus has put limitations day. As the virus spreads The most severely im- at all levels, and could around the world, oil pric- pacted segments of the create a further lag in es have sunk to US$ 50 a economy in India, which the process timelines as barrel, with fears of the sit- will face a long and uphill quarantine guidelines get uation getting worse. struggle to recover are au- stricter. Eighty per cent of tomobile, entertainment the world’s goods move In the UAE, Chinese (multiplexes, restaurants, by ship, and demand for tourists make up 6per bars etc.), tourism, hospi- shipping is starting to cent of total tourist inflow. tality, and jewellery. The slip noticeably. Dubai’s renowned high- P61

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION ECONOMIC the recovery process. In yo-yoing between lock- LANDSCAPE PECOOSNTO-MIC China, reports say that al- downs and short windows CLAONVDIDSC-A1P9E most 60per cent of com- of controlled activities. POST-COVID-19 mpaonntihessi.e.rbeysuAmuguesdt 20o20p.eTrahe- caseWahvilaeble atnhtieviraletrceoatnmoemntiics The duration of the contagion wtioornsts-cabsee tswceenaernio iMs aafrucllhyeaarnodf fcoounsdt worilal vbaeccsinperceraeadteadcbryotshse will decide the shape of the eco- tiwoAnhimpgenrpdbyiaoeln.wthwdsTaeeohsmefneciscol,hnEoartcnurukdordnlotolhkewzdeonbwasnycotearianvldildetmyicesoshoo-.yosnort-t- mehtlohniogwdehree-origwfnlisctoduheobresgmpeeyr,eeecaatardhptce—aecositttiuimoynnggecptptrrhaerieeaocrttsteodwcooiitlinnsnh, nomic landscape; the longer it 3.8Wpheirle tcheeencto,notmheic cohsitgwhilel sbet hAefarlitchaca,re,Caenndtrmaolre Admisceiprlicnead, lptcahoasavcttetsFRS,,raayOYtElhnmpSNUedorEmoENmsAtcRooeD6RrsGr0eseAC.pIspTAIHeenarIviOenTcCrefEhNeuniAltnwwMoail,ifllrlcbeobepmeotthrphteasenisrmiaeeys-- osChspneiarnnelsoctarwdean-laionciArtcmosoosmesprcetithcrciaeeoo,agunalntonitbodrbeineu,Sst,tohiuenattionAhm-fdErpriaacecsiattt-, slabaoopneccpkidradolsoadwSecihsnvotsaetuonrctcealhiin.nf-eEgbaIaaetnnsdadtvihwsoyioAdgreisukednintaheelivr—koeweunfugilliylhfll resumed operations between March Assuiamweillebceosneovemrei.cItaics tuivniltikielsy stohmaet inthfeectioencroen-eommerigces lion sthse- and April. The Eurozone economy tahtatththeeeeacorlnioemsitc. losses suffered wesintesr umffoenrthesd. Tboyurisamll ansdegits- aimnncetihlnleatrsnieesxwt a1or2eumludonnlitkhheasl,yvwethoicbrheevweivinlel Tohhpaigsthisoehnsrtbushcunintoekctonbeyritdteaassulcgumrrmieaooaesttntieio3ocn.o8n,npawoenmrdiolciilfcetnhactatd,tshtivneheioe-- by all segments would have been hoafvfesea thuagfeteimr ptahcet opnathnedoevmeraicll offset after the pandemic slows. rselcoowvesry.. RTehciesssiiosn wwohueldrebe gexopve- ties at thceiedarelietsht.e shape of the r2ieni0re2nnI1cfmegttdrhheoebrwnroyetthusmiswgowashotsuileelldcchooagnnacudcovemaweleriaaertvasone,tebtss.eoutmteebsepy-, TThHisEiPs RwOheGreNOgoSveIrSnments will tliqmueidinityDecseumpbpero-Jratn, uasryh, otrhte- economic landscape; the hTawveoto sstecpeinathrrioousgh gauraerantbeees-, wteorrmld wwouolrdkbescwhiseermaensd, baetntedr lTTowHnoEgPsecRreOnGiatrNioOlsaSsIaStrse , bethineg cmonosirde- lslicoincqaahgunseismde.icetIiyosfs,nseuafasfpneirpcddeoteitrvature,ersmpndhooo:ltrrioctat-ythtoneierrnoimutremmbrwveoeaosnrlnkt-- psaormempeaoraerrdeaatsionwrioumumladnaaoggianninglosietae. naWstoh. tiIlaefl sereevd:etrhee wbeisllt bcaesetihsea irmetupranctto, tcioynswariethiminpletmheentendeixmtmetdhiraetee- leofcfkedcowtinv,ecopntoailnicmyentinmteeravsuernes- anonrdmamlcyorweithpinaitnhfeulnewxtillthbreee lmy, tohnetrhecsoveri.yew.ill bbeyV-sAhaupgedu.st wtioounldsbe maroere taimlorp-mleamde,eenntseurd- t2h0eT2ah0sis.suTmshcpeetnioawnrioothrasistt-tcbhaeasrseedewsiulclpoebne- nnoarsieocoinsd awafvuellofyethaer poanf dtehme- ipcafnordaetmleiacs,t oannedmothreeyewaro. rlIdn PP3642

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS immediately, the recovery To save businesses However, one must not will be V-shaped. that have run dry rule out the extreme eco- of working capital, nomic, social and political This scenario is based governments are turmoil which we will be upon the assumption that promising bailout seen in the whole of 2020. there will be no second packages Most economies will expe- wave of the pandemic for rience an unprecedented at least one more year. tailor-made, ensuring that contraction. The rebound In case a viable antivi- some regions/sectors are in the second half of 2021 ral treatment is found or kept running. In this case, would be muted, and we a vaccine created by the the economic recovery can assume that pre-crisis end of the year — togeth- will get pushed into the levels in economies will er with more widespread spring of 2021. Pre-crisis not be reached until 2023. testing protocols, higher level recovery in most seg- surge capacity created in ments will not be before THE WAY FORWARD healthcare, and more dis- late 2022. Some countries have al- ciplined approach to life ready taken unprecedent- and work through social In the worst-case sce- ed steps to tackle the distancing and hygiene nario, major economies, economic consequences — full lockdowns can be including India, will be of the crisis. Immediate/ avoided even if some in- constrained to impose short-term measures in- fection re-emerges in the lockdown measures until clude direct-cash trans- winter months. Tourism the end of 2020, at least. fers to citizens as unem- and its ancillaries are un- Then, economic activities ployment levels skyrocket, likely to revive in the next would reach pre-crisis and lowering of interest 12 months, which will have levels only in the second rates by central banks to a huge impact on the over- quarter of 2021. By then, ease the flow of money, all recovery. Recession hopefully, a vaccine would and moratorium on pay- would be experienced by be available as also a tried ment of EMIs or on credit most economies, but by and tested antiviral regi- card dues. To save busi- 2021 growth would accel- men. A considerable num- nesses that have run dry erate. ber would have acquired of working capital, govern- herd immunity. Even if the ments are promising bail- If there is a second virus makes a return, it out packages. Estimates wave sometime in Decem- can be dealt with without through the Global Policy ber-January, the world a lockdown. Even air travel model suggest that na- would be wiser and bet- and tourism would benefit tional incomes may rise by ter prepared in manag- from renewed confidence. U.S.$ 1.4 trillion for devel- ing it. While some areas oped countries because would again see a total of these expensive pack- lockdown, containment measures would be more P63

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION ages, however there is In the worst-case by the IMF; countries can fear that developing econ- scenario, major econ- use this mechanism to omies may not be able to omies, including India, obtain hard currency and meet the crisis head-on. will be constrained to as a means of payment impose lockdown between countries. Each Comparison between measures until the end country has a quota, which the Global Financial Cri- of 2020, at least. is directly proportional to sis (GFC) and the eco- the amount shared with nomic consequences of tries have the financial the IMF. Developed coun- COVID-19 have already be- strength to buttress social tries have better access gun. However, unlike GFC, protection schemes, for to these funds than devel- we still do not know when developing countries, a oping countries. This time this crisis will end. An un- decline in revenue causes IMF can allocate more certain future can cause fiscal constraints, even as funds to developing coun- delay in taking effective people demand increased tries based on their need policy action, and even welfare schemes. Curren- and ability to recover. the massive packages an- cy depreciation causes an nounced may prove to be increase in the cost of im- Another solution is glob- too little and too late. porting essential products, ally endorsed capital con- and lack of administrative trol measures. This move Many countries do not ability increases the toll can stop the outflow of have the effective mech- on the healthcare system. capital and restrict depre- anism to bounce back like This is a vicious cycle that ciation of currencies and the last time. China’s large developing countries will asset prices. This must be stimulus and increased struggle to conquer, creat- legitimised globally and global south-south trade ing an opportunity for so- needs to be assisted by in- had positively impacted cial unrest. ternational organisations growth in many parts of like the IMF. the world. Shrinking fis- A recent pledge taken cal space, lacking state by G-20 countries to inject A third possible policy capacity, and the global US$ 5 trillion into the glob- decision is to have a tem- nature of the crisis con- al economy to mitigate the porary halt on loan repay- straints us from using the crisis is commendable, but ments. This can happen same methods. Due to more can be done. This when creditor countries increased fear of future crisis could be the right choose to extend debt supply-chain disruptions, time to discuss changing repayments for a cou- countries and compa- the rules of Special Draw- ple of years. During this nies will rethink their sup- ing Rights (SDR) practised time, creditor institutions ply-chain strategy, and this by the IMF. SDRs are like should not take legal re- will cause longer delays in a current account held course for repayment of rise in global trade. debts. While developed coun- Stimulus packages are P64

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS a necessity now, but it re- back both principle and 4.4per cent! sults in an alarming rise interest. The RBI had is- The RBI should adopt in global debt. Coupled sued instructions to banks with low commodity pric- to postpone repayment the ZIRP (Zero Interest es, emerging economies of loans, from April 1 to Rate Policy) for the dura- will be the hardest hit. May 31, 2020. However, all tion of the economic re- The absence of a vaccine banks, without exception, covery. By adopting ZIRP, in the immediate future have offered only delayed economic activity should may translate to a bleak repayment, with addition- take-off, because firms economic performance al interest. Some econo- and individuals will gain in the forthcoming quar- mists call interest as rent access to cheap credit. ter. Under-performance in on capital. When econom- Extraordinary measures two consecutive quarters ic activities are stopped are needed to deal with is clearly a recession that by government decree, extraordinary challenges. looms. Some experts even is it justifiable that banks However, there is a down- fear a depression on the should continue to charge side with ZIRP. The RBI horizon. interest on capital invest- would no longer be able to ed in the stalled economy? reduce interest rates, ren- REVIVING dering conventional mon- THE STALLED Interest rates change etary policy ineffective. ECONOMY over time, depending on However, it could employ market conditions. Cen- quantitative easing, and in SYNERGIA tral banks of nations, use extreme situations, even FOUNDATION interest rates as mone- offer negative rates. RESEARCH TEAM tary tools, to stimulate the economy in times of eco- INSPIRE THE CONSUMER At this juncture, com- nomic difficulty. Currently, Another unique challenge panies and indi- five countries with the low- is reviving consumer de- viduals leveraged est interest rates are Swit- mand even as the coro- by debt are the most dis- zerland (-) 0.75per cent, navirus persists. Govern- advantaged. Despite the Denmark (-) 0.6per cent, ments should not hesitate absence of income (be- Japan (-) 0.1per cent, Swe- to inspire people to learn cause of the lockdown), den 0per cent, and Spain to live productive lives they are required to pay 0per cent. The Bank of En- in a COVID environment. gland has dropped their in- The same agencies (pub- terest rate to 0.1per cent, lic health and police), who while the Federal Reserve implemented the lock- of U.S. has brought inter- down should advocate est rates down to 0.25per the resumption of normal cent. The RBI is still main- lives with pragmatic pre- taining the REPO rate at cautions. P65

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION PRIVATE SECTOR shall focus on the latter. RESPONSIBILITIES Responsible capital- IN A PANDEMIC ism, where companies INPUTS BY COVID-19. The speakers seek to act quickly and GOPI HANUMANTHAPPA were Dr Kevin Kang (Chief have a backup plan for a MANAGING Economist, KPMG China), backup plan, now faces DIRECTOR OF Jason LU (Vice President, its biggest test yet. To- THYSSENKRUPP KORRUN Group), Gina day’s CEOs are faced with QIAO (Senior Vice Presi- multiple choices and de- In the “India and Chi- dent and Chief Marketing cisions in the face of the na: Two Asian giants Officer, Lenovo), and Gopi pandemic, ranging from amidst a pandemic” we- Hanumanthappa (Manag- how to deal with losses in binar hosted by Synergia ing Director of ThyssenK- their business, handling foundation in collabora- rupp). the cash flow, balancing tion with CCG (Center for the needs of investors, China and Globalization), The two main topics customers, staff and sup- moderator Andy Mok (Se- covered pertained to how pliers - the list goes on. nior Fellow, CCG) focused supply chains could be Since no one saw COVID on the private sector and made stronger, and how turning into a pandemic, corporate responsibility there are no firm solutions helps in navigating a pan- as to what is the best way demic as well. This piece to deal with the scenario. Naturally, it will be impos- P66

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS sible to keep everyone igating alternatives in the tion of plans from com- happy. SHIFTING GEARS supply chain ensures that panies—not trade asso- The focus of any compa- ny during a pandemic is this problem doesn’t last ciations, other business (or should be) to protect their workforce and en- too long. There are those groups, nor thefederal sure continuity of output. This has seen companies who hesitate, though. The government.” change, for the time be- ing, the products they pro- main concern with using duce, to keep production going along with creating other companies as man- necessary equipment for the pandemic. SURVIVINGufacturers is that there AND THRIV-could be large differences Jason Lu, VP of the ING IN THEin the manufacturing pro- KORRUN group, a busi- ness travel company, did cess. just the same. In the we- binar, Mr Lu spoke about PANDEMIC how his company con- HOW DO COMPANIES tributed their services in making masks to donate DEAL WITH A PANDEMIC to healthcare workers, es- pecially to Indonesia and Pandemic preparedness INPUTS BY India. Their factory in Ben- for one’s company can be UDYANT MALHOTRA galuru, Karnataka, was only as good as the expe- CEO AND MD also given clearance to op- rience, flexibility, knowl- OF DYNAMATIC erate due to this. KORRUN edge, and wisdom of the TECHNOLOGIES isn’t alone. London-based LTD boutique liquor brand 58 Gin stopped making gin coworkers. It would be and started making hand sanitizers. Vacuum-mak- Heven better if there was ow the right deci- er Dyson took an order of sions and rapid re- 10,000 ventilators from the the collective experience sponses can help UK government. While the of all the companies in the drastic change in products world—if they were willing a company emerge un- did create certain hurdles in sourcing materials, nav- to share. scathed from the pandem- Michael T. Osterholm, ic an American infectious Udayant Malhoutra, disease epidemiologist CEO and MD of Dynamat- and director of the Center ic Technologies Ltd was a for Infectious Disease Re- panellist In the 81st Syn- search and Policy at the ergia Forum’s 17th Virtual University of Minnesota, Forum on Supply Chain & states that “We see fright- Core Resilience Capabili- fully little private or public ties. This article is based sharing of creative ap- on his views expressed proaches or experiences during the discussions. wrestling with tough pre- “It’s a really challenging paredness issues. moment [...] For risk miti- No one has assembled gation, and to have that a comprehensive collec- sole supply dependency P67

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION of the big OEMs on us, we had their operations tem- tries, could become a rare had local manufacturing porarily suspended or success story. [...] In a sense, that busi- reduced . Many smaller ness was not really dis- companies were forced PROACTIVE AND rupted (because of this)” to shut down due to a lack INNOVATIVE MEASURES of funding caused by the Dynamatic’s decision to The pandemic has pandemic. manufacture their prod- proved highly disruptive to ucts locally turned out to the Indian economy, and In this dystopian situa- be the correct one under resulted in estimates that tion, very few companies the current circumstanc- this would be the worst have been able to survive es. As a producer of high recession since the eco- the onslaught of the eco- tech equipment for several nomic liberalization of the nomic crisis unscathed. aviation majors, their de- 1990s, and possibly even Even fewer were not a part mand is of a global nature. since Indian Indepen- of the industries that saw They built their manufac- dence. 140 million people an increase in demand turing plants in the coun- lost their jobs, while many due to the pandemic (such tries of their principal cus- more endured salary cuts as facemasks, sanitizer, tomers, saving a great deal . Up to 53% of business- etc.). It seems almost un- on transportation. While es were projected to be fathomable that a compa- this also meant a possible significantly affected, ny involved in aviation, one loss due to paying higher while several companies of the hardest-hit indus- P68

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS wages (than if they were than many governments) As a result, they have man- manufacturing in China) by training their employees aged to emerge from the and due to economies of to continue to work with crisis not just intact, but scale, it made their sup- new guidelines that could indeed better than many ply chains resilient to dis- protect workers from the of their competitors. They ruptions. Spreading man- contagious nature of the were able to survive with- ufacturing over different virus. In March, COVID out the aid of the Reserve countries is rare, but it can testing all of their 3000 em- Bank of India, while ensur- serve as a reliable hedge ployees was started, a first ing the safety and security, against disruptions in the again amidst Indian com- in terms of health and fi- supply chain. panies. In collaboration nances, of their customers with the Indian Institute of and their employees. Dynamic is a sole sup- Science to develop testing plier for certain products protocols were fine-tuned The story of Dynamatic to major companies, like and working closely with and of Udayant Malhoutra Boeing. In Udayant Mal- the state governments, it is a unique one. Their abil- houtra’s own words, ‘be- was ensured that produc- ity to mitigate risk, both ing a sole supplier means tion could go on undisrupt- before and during the cur- risk’. Any disruption has ed. They even invested in rent crisis, as well as their the potential to cripple an innovation to create the culture of innovation, can entire company ahead of cheapest ventilator in India, serve as a blueprint for them in the supply chain. costing as low as Rs.2500. others that wish to survive Accordingly, the sole sup- the next economic crisis. plier has to be responsive and proactive if it wishes to survive in the industry, especially when confront- ed with disruption as de- structive as the pandemic. TAKING CARE OF SUPPLIERS, CUSTOMERS & WORKERS Sensing the potential for disruption, in January itself, Dynamatic prepaid all of their financial obligations for the next four quarters. As early as February, they began to prepare (sooner P69

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION ‘PHARMA, set up a control room, comes with a seven-year THE WHITE with the respective State market exclusivity to the KNIGHT OF drug controllers, providing company, which means THE PAN- operational data on a daily Gilead would have had an DEMIC’ basis. “There’s a lot going exclusive right to manu- on in this space [pharma], facture and market the INPUTS BY which will hopefully give drug, giving it a monopoly. RANJIT SHAHANI, some succour. Indian FORMER MANAGING companies have upscaled ‘Doctors Without Bor- DIRECTOR AND VICE - their manufacturing for ders’ has urged global lead- CHARIMAN AT NOVARTIS HCQ, clinical trials for ers to accord patents to pri- INDIA LTD AND which are still going on to vately developed COVID-19 PRESIDENT OF THE see its usefulness; there treatments to “ensure avail- SWISS-INDIAN are companies which are ability, reduce prices, and CHAMBER OF producing re-purposing save more lives”. COMMERCE, INDIA medicines to see wheth- er they can help in COVID. Creating a vaccine for a Pharmaceutical com- There’s a lot of creative virulent virus is extremely panies have been work going on,” says Ran- hard work, and ensuring it extending a helping jit Shahani, a former pres- is accessible to all will be hand to consumers facing ident of the Organisation even harder. Shahani ex- economic difficulties in of Pharmaceutical Pro- plains the dilemma: “Ac- accessing critical medica- ducers of India. cess has more than one tion. Eli Lilly, a U.S. com- dimension. People focus pany, has offered support THE MANY LAYERS OF on it only in relation to to many insulin-dependent DRUG MARKETING price. Access also relates diabetics whose loss of in- A major issue is the li- to availability and quality. come has left them unable censing protocol for new- You may have the product, to access life-saving med- ly introduced drugs. Re- but not the right quality, ication. cently, Remdesivir was then that’s poor access. sanctioned the ‘orphan [...] Now, either the govern- The Indian government drug’ status by the USFDA, ment does the research, took proactive measures which was quickly revoked and a pharma company to avoid supply-chain dis- due to severe criticism. An does the manufacturing to ruptions in the pharma ‘orphan drug’ tag is given distribute it. But if you are industry. To monitor trans- in situations where the a listed company, and you portation and delivery of disease affects fewer than are my shareholder, then essential commodities in 2,00,000 patients, whereas you’ll want a reasonable real-time, the Department in the U.S. far more people return on the investment. for Promotion of Industry were infected. This status This is always the chal- and Internal Trade (DPIIT) lenge. Americans pay the highest amount for inno- P70

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TAN COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS vative products, followed outlets, like ration shops. drug intermediates into WH by the Europeans where The government can buy India valued at about US$ The grow betcheeenvtepnlerischsinagrthdaeisnr. t2h0Se-h30Uaph.Sea.r,ni ttehhxeemspel,aoinirngbsiuvlek iatinftodtrosfreetlhlei.e”t mto, or2,g4Ti0vh5ee.4yi2t fmoirlclifoornnes.eis.”t of tical thfeollodwileedmmbya:As“iaAcwcheesrse has more with the fermentation pro- gove to fo thtahne pornicee ddriompsenbsyiaorno.unPdeopTlHeEfAoPcuI CsONUTNHDREUAMPI COcNesUsN-baDsRedUMdrugs such the ocentt5sohs0ietpIaneopldrsrnciioacel,iynnritget.ilnWiassthoreoeledsnnlaeitgt-toflciiofootabhnmavlaelotysifo.lapbOmnrilaiveicethreryoa.tshauAennecsopd-taapsbotlsidseOiethsicvoetaednadrbieitnls,itCshtnhhhueeie-- dpa—aliistnsts, pdncaeeurmncumiapccidiieacllerliilno,li,nCa,unahntmtiioebnotiaorxpaticoichciyslsa--is- 1990 quYaelti,tyw.eYhoauvemsaixy hhuanvderetdhe gplorobadlumcta,rkettifoonr ainctitvhee gclolinbea,l macrekpehtafloosrpaocritnivse to ing bumt inlliootnthpeeorpilgehtheqrueawlithyo, thpehnartmhaact’esuticapl hairnmgreadcie- uti—caalnidngesresednietinaltsvit(aAmPiIn), es, a apgoopONthvowhanoerovaewrern,damwamtochnalaclaeyaetircnn’sssiocststoma.hd[mte.odop.e.ae]caydshoniasofNtyltrhlareodielbbnewoougsreu,teseest..seteihatfu2eehronn0creti1mthsr6s8,7(a-fA1ao.nt59Punhu6,nIdeC)p-d, ehtihrinneceadtfeaeoahncrlecretuhmcogdoe6efr.ul7unetnI.gto5mnta.te6Iradney2pl n0etr1admai8nrnecc-aynde1rcce9nuehea,tunosCotirioinftmchfsgatiohlfntenooaaiuItnnloaanddvlpcudieiacsilrlmniodtsnre.uypppenhToeaaohtnrrecnet--hds 20p expo facthteusreinthgrotuogdhigsotrveibrnumteenitt. Biumtpiofrtysoouf bulkofdrbuguslkanddrugismpaonrdteddrAuPgIsinhtaesrmbeeedni- a fo took are a listed company, and you are ates into India valued at about US$ as subs my shareholder, then you’ll want 2,405.42 million. inte They consist of the fermP7e1 nta- was a reasonable return on the invest- of s wor ment. This is always the challenge. tion process-based drugs such as redu over Americans pay the highest amount crucial antibiotics — penicillin, clos drug Guja Ove form imp lutio year T an m is lo pegg to th ies

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION a concern. In fact, in The biggest challenge capacity to obtain low-in- 2014 the present Nation- to Indian manufactur- terest credit and invest in al Security Adviser Ajit ers to produce APIs is high capacity infrastruc- Doval had warned that low capacity utilisation ture. While Chinese plants India’s dependence on which is pegged at can be set up in one year, China for APIs could be a 30-40 per cent com- in India, it would most like- national security threat. pared to the Chinese, ly take 3 to 4 years. India needs to follow the at 65 per cent example of Switzerland, CHOKEPOINT WITH which permits a two-year the largest producers of COVID -19 stock of critical supplies. semi-synthetic penicillin India, the U.S., Nigeria, and in the world. the Chinese the EU are admitting the WHY WAS INDIA WAY strategically reduced the dangers of allowing China BEHIND cost of Penicillin G by a monopoly in the manu- The 1970s was momen- over 80per cent which led facturing of essential raw tous for the growth of the to the closure of some materials. Sourcing of Indian pharmaceutical of the largest bulk drug APIs became a serious is- industry. To help com- plants for antibiotics sue once the supply chains pete with multinational such as Gujarat Lyka Or- from China collapsed at companies, the govern- ganics and Kopran. Over the onset of the pandemic. ment revised its patent time, India shifted focus law to focus on process to formulated drugs and In March, the Joint and shortened the life of turned to imports for API. Drugs Controller of the the patents. Through the Penicillin, a revolution- Central Drugs Standard 1990s, Indian chemists ary antibiotic discovered Control Organisation (CD- were able to reverse-en- 80 years ago, is now in SCO) had to step in with gineer manufacturing scarce supply. a package to replenish processes, hold domes- the API industry. The Fed- tic prices, and compete The biggest challenge eration of Indian Cham- to eventually hold 20per to Indian manufacturers bers of Commerce and cent of the market share to produce APIs is low ca- Industry (FICCI), has rec- in exports. China, howev- pacity utilisation which is ommended incentivising er, became a formidable pegged at 30-40per cent manufacturers to tackle competitor and overtook compared to the Chinese, the disruptions and posi- India in API manufactur- at 65per cent. Studies tion India as an alterna- ing as Chinese compa- show that India can com- tive source to China. The nies enjoyed subsidised petitively produce APIs disruption has already infrastructure and low– with a 3per cent variance increased prices of basic interest credit. In the for labour cost, but Chi- drugs in India like parac- 1980s, India was one of nese exporters have the etamol by 40per cent and some antibiotics by P72

COVID-19 COMPENDIUMCOVID-19 COMPENDIUM THTEHLEELGEGITITIIMMAACCYYOOFFOOURUTRHTINHKINTAKNTKAINS KINISTHIENPTOHWEERPOOFWOEURROIDFEAOSUR IDEAS phooorrncs7wit0ohipzfeeeraner odcrimeletnohmter.mepIarnt:ivhsaaautnepcpsoeo7ucr5n-tptreyr,bbuantlakoctpkheeonrfetmSrtaeattithoeondssuh,pasvpueocrhitn.carsealisnekd-,Nscoiveenmtisbtesrfo2u0n1d6,thGaet ramll aonf the SYSTEMS ANDthe tor? If prcoednutctieoxnpsetonpdsitaunrde thoefreout-ingEpNoVstIRofOfiNceMaEccNoTuAntLs and rationthe specimens collected SOLUTIONS TOare no lonogfe-rpeoscskenettiael gxopoednsdbiteuinreg iscarCdsHcAouLlLdEbNeGcoEnSsiAdNerDed. from sites around the bulk THE MIGRANTproduced,oonf whheaatluthsecaisreth, etUhiBsI?could DORncUeGoRpeErSaItSioTnAalN, CthEe ‘one na-drug manufacturing fa- Interedsteerpatlyesimhpavaectbteheenpocuotr. tion one ration card’ (ONORC)cilities in Hyderabad and LABOUR CRISISsince the begAinnsitnragtoefgtihcisicnriitsiaist,ibvye tosystTehme wopuhladrbmeatcheeubteicstalsoliunt-ionnearby villages, known as pumping cinonmsoidrermwonoeuyldinbtoe tthoe re-as mduigsrtarnytsecmanitusse4t8h,i5s5c0ardkagny-the Patancheru-Bollaram system, covuivnetriepsuwbliilcl hasveecttoorfacderugwheorfe incathreboconu-dnitoryx,iadned-esqinuciev-thezone, were contaminated the risk ofmmaonuunftaincgtuinreflrastiaonndwfiuthr-therenraollemnetnt(CprOo2cees)s fpoerrthme iOllNioOnRCwith antimndicerrostbainadlsin. gThtehye magni- U9tfihMonohupirgcaetelhnnerupxybcndarueeoomgnddtdotg)pvuvuAdtAe,eoilhceaestnsifPnatroeb,dGesitnIhnliveidutreDbmaiahf.trisPiPnceyicteonfo,iSadn(itctgsUiptsUtoccphsfsaanassolutnaclirasooddlyimLlitnfrekudysteafutdateeniahanlctb.idagkeoinHdttyftae.tslUiSiIeaynopnuntBhtrdnradipdrraoIotsuouivetndiaI.plsoessDe.,uttPIaecnidnnLe-pdwgmsieeosoanroufpdetS5rGeroheglnh5oi,rdorligeatitnaplvdghlnelbaaereliieriyemablrsrfrsntislOusccream,ttcioNawrcbocooleinOulenemsnaanwtttulnRgpttiyoeoetthsCitntrneocaiwihwcwtfvamomdeeheaeolflupnfopuyUoeaoiousuilrrsBndouetbenoIdrglbrt.weiaehusecstsbtsahscttthhouesthoofareoutleufyhtrnemftn-.etbihgdneahess--hclagdeolairvsuvneooonirgentelfroassdgsmti.aTufhpinosnoisheoTefcttiuerasdlhsblniyedttunsesauadwdriisttsctszdeueeoeetsetewdtsehsr9o,orioreodfn5tyfirrrfhaoigiopkatisnevnhtmfeancgiheolemtrnythrleriyitdcabwainhgecsrcihsafferorgoeueyiaiagtiersnpndnnifmihcsosetts--sorraIwscalanpinnaoodedrdr-icdaetutacihvndoiees--- supply of basic raw ma-(MCinPgFi)n, it.eh.ethdeevaemlooupnmtesnptenotf byimesntatggesruinrgfa; acep,opuglraotiuonnda,lmost the STILL BEtTeTriEalR, bTuHtAwNitMheOrSeTd due tothemgouvlteir-ndmruegntptaotphroogviednesR. eI.n1 ofandsidzerinokf inFrganwcaetemr.igrates from one UBI is still considered by many as goods to its citizens. India has an state to another within India, with the most viable option. A combina- MCPF of 2.5 to 3.5, which means a large section that migrates and re- tion of fintech and administrative the government needs to spend turns annually, in sPe7a3rch of season- efficiency is the key to its success. an extra Rs. 3 for providing goods al work and daily wages. Of that 30 The Jan Dhan accounts (cash trans- worth Re. 1. UBI avoids this as it percent are labourers, and of those fer to farmers every six months) cuts through layers of bureaucracy labourers, 30 percent are casual la- have shown that this system is and corruption by putting money bourers.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION SOCIAL In a deposition during the 2008 finan- SECURITY by the Government cial crisis, but this time UMBRELLA of India before the around, millions of jobs FOR THE Hon’ble Supreme have been lost in a week. It MARGINALISED Court, it was revealed is in a bind as it confronts that around 5.7 a multitude of needs to SYNERGIA million migrant finance. It is not only pro- FOUNDATION labourers were involved viding bread and butter to RESEARCH TEAM in this abrupt the millions of poor, but migration spurred by also has to spend billions The State’s financial the lockdown on strengthening its med- package should be ical defences against the focussed on the eligible individuals by the virus. bottom layers of the eco- government. nomic pile: the daily-wage IS THIS THE BEST earners in the informal or Developed countries SOLUTION YET? unorganised sector. This like Canada, the UK and Critics of UBI say that a includes the rickshawal- the U.S., which already direct cash transfer might lah, porters, street ven- have an extensive social help if the economy is dors and the like. The security umbrella in place, running and picking up. sudden and complete halt are now toying with the But if the economy is in in all kinds of economic idea of universal distri- a standstill, it might not activities may well push bution of cash subsidies be sufficient. UBI was pri- many, already in the abys- to the weaker sections. marily seen as a supple- mal depths of abject pov- The U.S. government is ment to the income of the erty, towards starvation, if planning to give $1,200 household, but not as the COVID-19 does not strike per adult for families with income in itself. them first. annual income below the $75,000 mark, and an addi- The second issue is Of the many solutions tional $500 for every child how many instalments of suggested, the most log- in the family. But, there is the UBI should be given ical one is the Universal also rising opposition to to the needy — a one-time Basic Income (UBI) —di- this scheme. The debate package, or should it be rect cash transfer to all is whether to expend the spread out once we are funds on individuals or clear how long the crisis on industries that employ is going to last? The third them. biggest concern is identi- fying who is eligible. Many America was losing developing countries still 8,00,000 jobs per month do not have effective bank P74

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS penetration or digital ac- tem is handy in identify- ing the right recipients. cess. Governments can- Internet connectivity and bank penetration have in- not dump cash into bank creased, but other meth- ods, such as linking post accounts if people do not office accounts and ration cards could be consid- have the facility. Data is ered. also crucial in identifying Once operational, the ‘one nation one ration card’ who the real victims are; (ONORC) system would be the best solution as mi- people in the informal sec- grants can use this card anywhere in the country, tor are difficult to access. and since the enrolment process for the ONORC Developed countries, would be stringent enough to render eligible only the which already have unem- poorest of the poor, the ONORC would be the ba- ployment insurance (the sis for distribution of UBI. dole), have a clear picture Government welfare schemes generally col- of those under the poverty lapse due to the high mar- ginal cost of public funds line or the unemployed. In- (MCPF), i.e. the amount spent by the government dia has no such database; to provide Re. 1 of goods to its citizens. India has an Aadhaar is the primary da- the system, countries will MCPF of 2.5 to 3.5, which have to face the risk of means the government tabase, but it does not list mounting inflation without needs to spend an extra productivity, thus stagfla- Rs. 3 for providing goods the citizen’s economic sta- tion. Many governments worth Re. 1. UBI avoids this already have high budget as it cuts through layers of tus or profile. deficits and debt. India, bureaucracy and corrup- for example, has fiscal tion by putting money di- Due to low demand and deficits up to 9per cent of rectly into the pockets of GDP (Union and States in- the people. the lockdown, many com- cluded), so the cost of the UBI is then not viable. panies will eventually run STILL BETTER THAN out of money and would MOST UBI is still considered by require a bail out. An al- many as the most viable option. A combination of ready stressed financial fintech and administrative efficiency is the key to its system might not be able success. The Jan Dhan accounts (cash transfer to to face this meltdown. The farmers every six months) have shown that this sys- government is now caught in the horns of a dilemma: support the poor citizen or the private sector? If pro- duction stops and there are no longer essential goods being produced, of what use is the UBI? Interest rates have been cut since the beginning of this crisis, by pump- ing in more money into P75

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION SYSTEMS AND the only way forward The for Developing Countries, SOLUTIONS TO size of the informal or un- it is estimated that there THE MIGRANT organised workforce in are about 65 million in- LABOUR CRISIS India is staggering; a pop- ter-State migrants in India. ulation almost the size of INPUTS BY France migrates from one A study conducted by TM VEERARAGHAV state to another within In- the Azim Premji Universi- CONSULTING dia, with a large section ty concluded that 29 per- EDITOR, that migrates and returns cent of the population of SYNERGIA annually, in search of sea- big Indian cities are pre- FOUNDATION sonal work and daily wag- dominantly interstate and es. Of that 30 percent are intrastate migrants. For Understanding the labourers, and of those instance, a typical Indian magnitude of the labourers, 30 percent are metro with a population crisis and address- casual labourers. of 80 to 100 million would ing it as a socio-economic have up to 30 million of issue from the perspec- While there are no exact such migrant workers. tive of the states, the mi- figures, but based on the grants and the industry is data provided by Prof Am- When India announced itabh Kundu of Research a sudden and strict and Information Systems lockdown to counter the COVID-19 spread, P76

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS it is these teeming mil- The Confederation of Jens Lerch of the Univer- lions who were exposed, All India Traders, an sity of London estimates caught between the dev- apex association of that Adivasis and Dalits, il and deep, far from the traders in India, an- who form the lower so- safety net of their rural nounced a nationwide cio-economic strata, from homesteads amidst the boycott of Chinese States like Jharkhand, uncaring urban chaos. TV products from June 10 Chhattisgarh, Odisha, images beaming visuals Madhya Pradesh amount of their pathetic journeys Court, it was revealed that to around 40 percent of across the baking hot In- around 57.72 lakh (5.7 the seasonal migrant dian plains, on foot, cy- million) migrant labour- workforce. States like cles and an assortment of ers were involved in this Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and modes of transport, gave abrupt migration spurred West Bengal too contrib- an indication of their size by the lockdown. Howev- ute to the migrant labour and the unsung service er, it is suspected that the force. These states could they perform behind the actual numbers are much be broadly classified as façade of a rising India. higher as recording keep- ‘Sender’ states. The desti- ing was poor. nation is industrially devel- While this unorgan- oped States in south India, ised or informal sector SENDER AND RECIPIENT Maharashtra, and bustling of the economy plays a STATES cities like New Delhi and major role in the agricul- Daily wagers can be broad- they can be termed ‘re- ture, transport, realty and ly divided into two catego- ceiver’ states. Agricultur- warehousing industries, ries; the intrastate and the ally rich states like Punjab their presence is critical in interstate migrants. While are also heavily dependent other sectors too. Chang- the former manage to get upon these migrants for ing demographics and un- better access to resourc- the sowing and harvest- even pace of growth in the es of their home state, it ing. country over the last three is the latter who are left to decades has triggered fend for themselves with While such studies re- these migrations, result- no social security cover iterate a common notion ing in a chaotic situation of any kind, neither food of ‘Sender’ or ‘Receiver’ which accords almost from the public distribu- States, they reveal little zero social security cover tion system nor access to more. The need is for an to these workers, unlike other social schemes run exhaustive exercise to col- their counterparts in the by the state. late detailed data of every organised or the formal migrant worker and his or sector. A research study by her family. And, then for- Alpa Shah of London mulate targeted solutions In a disposition by the School of Economic and for diverse segments, Government of India be- like State-specific, indus- fore the Hon’ble Supreme P77

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION try-specific remedies. A UNIVERSAL RATION move where de mand and ing, lower economic strata CARD AS A SOLUTION returns are higher”. of the population in terms To understand the magni- of subsidised food and tude of the problem, pre- Mr. Mitra feels that health care. cise data of their numbers “trust deficit” would have and movements is critical. hurt the migrants and that In fact, aligning ration The government in consul- post lockdown effects will card to the nearest ration tation with the sender and be “temporary”. Howev- stores could also enhance the recipient states have er, there is a need to as- data gathering to reveal to set in place processes sess the recovery process the real-time geographic to register and track this through precise informa- spread of migrants and workforce. tion and ensure that the help to target the delivery lessons from the crisis of relief, subsidies, and as- A large scale, “mo- that followed the lock- sistance to them in a cri- bile-based survey could down lead to systematic sis. generate good ideas about solutions. the post lockdown recov- ADDRESSING THE ECO- ery from both the employ- A “universal ration” card NOMIC MODEL er and migrant” point of could enhance social pro- There is a counterview view, suggests Mr Sanjay tection for migrants; he that such massive move- Mitra, a former secretary points out. The concept of ment of populations from to the Government of In- ‘one nation one ration’ is rural to urban centres on dia. one solution for providing a regular basis does not social security for migrat- Migration by itself is eco- nomically beneficial to the country as it leads to the distribution of cheap labour from labour-surplus areas to labour-deficient ones, thus boosting employment while keeping input costs low. Mr. Mitra suggests that targeted measures should look at “protection for migrants” and not try to mitigate migration itself, which he feels is the result of a “functioning econom- ic model where resources P78

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS give much credit to the WHO BELLS THE CAT? Bangalore “the labour sit- stability of such an eco- Each state has a unique uation today is at around nomic model and needs a demography, and a ‘sender’ 55 per cent of what it was deeper analysis. state is in the best position before the lockdown. It to understand the needs was at around 32 percent Mr E.S.L.Narasimhan, of its population. However, on the day lockdown was former Governor of Telan- the ‘receiver’ state is better lifted”. gana and Former Director placed to track the number of the Intelligence Bureau, of migrants with their exact Amidst restrictions on says “It’s time we look at locations. It would be mor- road and train travel, it is the underlying cause” and ally binding on the receiver an ordeal for interstate adds that “We need to see state, which is reaping the workers to return to their how industrial growth spe- economic benefits of this job sites. While easing in- cific to an area is to be cheap labour, to cater to terstate movement may identified and made into a their social needs too. restore some labour flow, hub of activity for the rural there needs to be long populace”. The centre at best could term systems and solu- act as a regulator by ensur- tions. Mr. Mathew points Mr. Narasimhan sug- ing laws safeguarding the out that key learning for gests that like smart rights of the migrant labour the industry was that the cities, we could look at are enacted and acted need for migrant labour “smart rural regions” as upon. Mr. Mitra warns that was “very evident” and the a possible solution and a “centralised intervention receiver state must treat proposes to “semi urban- would be disastrous” and its “guest” labours at par ises rural areas, so wealth argues that the break was with the locals. spreads evenly.” Howev- a result of the pandem- er, this would require an ic and the system did not As a long-term solu- accompanying push for crash on its own. tion from the industry, Mr. education and other infra- Mathew proposes the fol- structure in rural areas. THE INDUSTRY VIEW lowing measures: A reg- In a post lockdown econ- istry of migrant workers, There are compelling omy, measures have to be transfer of wages online arguments for a social net put in place to facilitate so that there is an elec- for the migrant labour, in- the return of the millions tronic trail, on-site hous- cluding a national urban of migrant workers so that ing for labour before large employment guarantee the wheels of the econo- projects receive clearanc- programme, on the lines of my start turning soonest. es like in the Gulf along NREGA, and an economic with ancillary services focus to contain massive According to Roshan like medical and counsel- migration. Without a con- Mathew, Executive Direc- ling and lastly dedicated certed effort, the situation tor and President Engineer- special trains to facilitate will only deteriorate, even ing at Brigade Enterprises, mass movements. without a pandemic. P79

SYNERGIA FOUNDATIOSNYNERGIA FOUNDATION VOCAL FOR ered to make their own just about products made will pave LOCAL sung, Fox cmhenotictoefsreeo-mnarkcertitaenrdiaglobsaulicsah- cboympdanoimes etsotimcancuofamctuprae ntiheesir, Flextronic INPUTS BY atiosnBnJpoPrwiscipneo,qkueasepsvteairosinloa?nbGil.Vit.yL,. Naanrad- ipbnruvoetdsuttmchtseanitnt aiInnndIyinadistioaenmasm,taoanpsurfoalmoctnoutrge- duction o MAJ GEN MONI qsimuahalityR,aonoclamrifiaetdtetrhawt htheerree iansg. iAt yweaarslatmer,aInnduifaahcadtuemreedrgeind in India. T CHANDI (RETD) twhoeuld pnroot dbeuactgsoveranrmeenmt dairdece- an export CHIEF STRATEGIC otthivraet tsopoeoolndplyl.ebuImsyalyoIcntahdl epimaro’ssdeulvccetsso, mbseuet- aIntdopiad,efsetilnlawtiointhfionr FthDeI (dFoerfeinigin- phones. OFFICER, SYNERGIA mmeirtimt inenbutyintgoitemfsreoef g-omodaqrkuaelt- 6Dti0iorenbci.tlliIonnv.esAtsmepnetr) attracting US$ FOUNDATION aqosittfynur,‘eldesomssceaatgddli’oleomtnhibena?aatnoBlttuihsJrtehaPcatoPtiusoMitnpn’twsoraydkn.seeoHnfisownetpitajeiuloisrsnnot- current policy, The ‘M saboonutGp.rVod.Luc.tNs maraadesibmy hdoamResatioc was a gran On May 12, 2020, cncldooilonaam,gtrfpeiaaflbsilneewiitediswt,ahatibsnhugmtathotaetnvhdtueaehtfrfaeincanrtnmiuetyiroeeinwdtne. tiomnu,dIlnadis-- 100per cent investment is now per- tious targ Prime Minister Na- rective to only buy local manufactu rendra Modi in his p‘‘MMroaAkdKeuEincINItnsId,NiaDb’,IuiAst’tPhtOheLanIatCmYpeefoorpthlee (em‘‘MM7c4iotpanAteeokdKrmeciEynei,nnIw1tN0I)i0tn,hIddsNeeeixfcaDectn’oeI,prcAisesti’oo(tPf4nh9tsOhepfeoLenrrIIansCcpdmeYainactene) after its la address to the nation, m‘swaaydesthhie’ mmsoevlevmeesntseleaunmcheerd- afondr ntehwes m‘esdwiaa(2d6epserhcie’ nmt). ove- targets ha urged Indians to be ‘Be vo- ibtyinthbe ugyoivnegrnmiteenmt sonofSegpoteomd- piemsorswuneOeenmndrteedAalanpcgutrooinmolvecn1mrhntiStehmteiedseepnbyttoeeyfanmrsto,ehtbctierfheiecetgraateo2rimiov5ens--, economic cal for local’, suggesting q2be5ursa2elc5itt,oy2r,0sm1o4f,atadhneed Iiinnnditiioaanlulyercccoonovoeumrneyd-. mentation that Indians should buy lo- tTrhye. Hinteenatilosno wsatsretosseendcoutrhaaget f2o0r 1P4r,odauncdtioinn-iLtiinaklelyd cIoncveenrteivde trade prot cal products with pride. (I2Pn5LaId)sd, iettoicotnfoutrrotshperorovfeidnticnhoguearadIgdneitdiFoiaDnanIl. affected i the PM’s definition of ‘lo- iencceonntiovemoyn. excTehedeing ipnrtoednucttioionn spite this, t The main problem with pects for I the ‘buy local’ theme is cal’ meant that it was not twaragsets ftoor fiveenyceaorus,rtahegceomcmoitmtee- that it suggests discrim- trpoeammnoaivekeesdiontvheteosrtmcoenmntteanintniIounufdsaicaclamtuuosrerees BOYCOTT ination of businesses, athtteraicrtipver.oItdius hcotpsedinthaItntdhiisapussoh based on an ill-defined PRODUCT criterion. What exactly is On June a local product? A prod- tion of All uct manufactured local- apex assoc ly from local resources. announced Moreover, a product man- of Chinese ufactured abroad with for- The organ eign resources is a foreign down the product. However, many imports fr global products are today proximate sourced from multiple cember 20 agencies and then either assembled or produced Chines locally. Are those local or tute mainl foreign? — electrica and plastic In free markets, con- na constitu sumers should be empow- and indu chemicals ATTRACT According ed Nations Developm amongst t of FDI in billion FD by compa computers telecomm mobiles, to chemicals. as to promote investment in Indian manufacturing. P42 P80

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS A year later, India had facturing sector. Five years products from June 10. emerged a top destination after its launch, many of The organisation’s aim for FDI (Foreign Direct In- the initial targets have was to bring down the val- vestment) attracting US$ slipped. The national eco- ue of current Chinese im- 60 billion. As per current nomic slowdowns, poor ports from US$ 75 billion policy, 100per cent invest- implementation of the poli- to approximately US$ 13 ment is now permitted in cy, and global trade protec- billion by December 2021. 100 sectors of the Indian tionism have adversely af- Chinese exports to India economy, with exceptions fected its implementation. constitute mainly manu- for space (74per cent), Despite this, the policy still factured products — elec- defence (49per cent) and holds prospects for India trical machinery, electron- news media (26per cent). in the long term. ics, and plastics. India’s exports to China consti- On April 1 this year, the BOYCOTT OF CHINESE tute mainly raw materi- empowered committee of PRODUCTS als and industrial inputs, secretaries issued a gov- On June 7, 2020, the Con- including chemicals and ernment notification for federation of All India cotton. Production-Linked Incen- Traders (CAIT), an apex tive (PLI), to further en- association of traders in ATTRACTING FDI courage FDI. In addition to India, announced a nation- According to the UNCTAD providing additional incen- wide boycott of Chinese (United Nations Confer- tive on exceeding produc- tion targets for five years, the committee removed other contentious claus- es to make investment in India more attractive. It is hoped that this push will pave the way for Apple, Samsung, Foxconn, Oppo, Vivo and Flextronics to commence local produc- tion of next-gen smart- phones in India. The vision is to make India an export hub for next-gen smart- phones. The ‘Make in India’ initia- tive was a grand proposal, with ambitious targets, particularly in the manu- P81

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION ence on Trade & Develop- 1982, while the India-Sin- EMPHASIS ON ment), in 2019, India was gapore Double Tax Treaty SELF-RELIANCE amongst the top 10 desti- was signed in 1994; both The government has peri- nations of FDI in the world. the treaties have been pe- odically raised import tar- The U.S.$ 49 billion FDI in- riodically updated. Invest- iffs in critical sectors to flow was received by com- ments originating from promote domestic man- panies dealing in services, Singapore and Mauritius ufacturing. In November computers (hardware & are more likely to be for- 2019, India decided to software), telecommu- eign companies, with busi- forego joining the RCEP nications, trading, auto- ness presence (shell com- (Regional Comprehensive mobiles, tourism, con- panies) created to take Economic Partnership) struction, and chemicals. advantage of the good citing negative impact for Significantly, in the re port, business environment farmers, MSMEs, and dairy Singapore and Mauritius and tax benefits. In recent products. In the wake of were the top sources of years, Chinese business- the COVID-19, the govern- FDI, followed by the Neth- es have made significant ment has stressed the im- erlands, U.S., and Japan. investments in India, pos- portance of self-reliance by Singapore and Mauritius sibly through this route. In- announcing measures to are attractive sources for dian companies like OLA, support home industries. FDI because they provide Hike, BigBasket, Byju’s, Government tenders, up to favourable tax regimes for Delhivery, Dream-11, Oyo, Rs. 200 cr., are now only re- companies investing in Paytm, Snapdeal, and Zo- served for Indian bidders. India. The India-Mauritius mato now have sizeable The FDI policy has been Tax Treaty was signed in Chinese equity holdings. amended to protect Indian P82

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS companies from “oppor- category was to be delist- expensive and less-effi- tunistic acquisitions”, by ed. On May 29, an order cient products, merely be- introducing scrutiny under was issued delisting more cause they are produced the Ministry of Commerce than 1,000 products from by Indian companies. In and Industry, for countries sale in canteens. However, fact, protection of domes- sharing land borders with on June 1, the order was tic industry, under the garb India. withdrawn, stating that it of nationalism, has been had been erroneously is- used as a window to serve After the reforms of sued and that more delib- inefficiency in work stan- 1991, many economists eration was required. dards, corruption in busi- suggested that tariff pro- ness dealings, and nepo- tection, without specific With this logic, an im- tism in accumulation of purpose and timelines, will ported Mercedes-Benz wealth. There is little merit make the domestic indus- and Levi’s jeans should be in misquoting nationalism try less and not more com- delisted from sale in po- to justify poorly-designed, petitive. India’s globally lice canteens. But, if the over-priced, and poor-qual- competitive info-tech, au- same products are assem- ity products. tomobile, and pharma sec- bled or made in India, they tors were forged through could still be available in From a purely nation- international competition the canteen. With the pro- alistic perspective, ‘Indi- and now require no further liferation of MNC brands in an-ness’, should be defined protection. India, it is increasingly dif- by Indian brand-name, pro- ficult to discern purely im- duction-in-India, and Indi- POLICE CANTEENS ported items from those an ownership. However, On May 13, 2020, the MHA that have been assembled in modern India, with its issued a directive that all or produced in India. This integrated economy, the police canteens, including is perhaps where the seri- government has wisely those of central police or- ous challenge lies. decided to define ‘Indi- ganisations, will only sell an-ness’, only in terms of goods that are ‘swadeshi’. IN A NUTSHELL production-in-India. In the In a later clarification, it Governments are obliged 1920s, Mahatma Gandhi was stated that all ex- to enable citizens to get led a successful people’s isting canteen products the best value for their movement to burn Lan- would be classified into money. There is also the cashire textiles in favour of three categories: those promise of free trade and homespun and hand-wo- purely Indian, those man- open markets, to which ven substitutes. In the 21st ufactured or assembled in our leaders have demon- century India, it may not be India, and those imported. strated commitment. so easy to discern ‘foreign- While the first two catego- ‘Be Indian – Buy Indian’ ness’, with the multitude of ries would be permitted for should not mean citizens goods and services avail- sale in canteens, the third are required to buy more able in our country. P83

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION THINK AND ACT chemicals, petrochemi- with essential PPE and the LOCAL, WITH cals, chemicals used in ag- work floors re-designed to A GLOBAL riculture, or in medication. ensure social distancing. PERSPECTIVE But, during the lockdown, Gradually, increased use the industry suffered iner- of technology in produc- INPUTS BY tia as it was not classified tion will minimise human PRASAD as an essential sector. This, intervention, but at a social CHANDRAN while chemical factories in cost. FOUNDER CHAIRMAN the USA, Germany, Japan, SEEGOS, FORMER and China continued func- Management has to CHAIRMAN & tioning. Even if the industry have two sets of teams. MANAGING had its machines on full One team should look at DIRECTOR, BASF throttle, it would have shut the here and now, and the INDIA LIMITED down due to the collapse other should look at the of the supply chains and in- long-term opportunities The chemical industry ability of workers to report and solutions. The short- is the crux of most to duty. term group would be fo- sectors, be it gen- cused on upstream sup- eral chemicals, speciality Even post-COVID, work- pliers and downstream ers will have to be equipped distributors and how to P84

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS create alternative supply about farmers having one- dia has a long history of chains, while the long-term two acres of very small a dominant State and think tank could focus on holdings, but that doesn’t vast swathes of pover- how to turn the sector into matter. We can have con- ty. ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ an alternative market to tractual manufacturing may seem like a dream China, for the U.S., Austra- where a huge value chain in when the Centre seeks to lia, and Europe. agriculture can take place. control the way produc- tion works. Vulnerable AGRICULTURAL PUSH GOVERNMENT CONTROL citizens end up having India has been fortunate VS ENTREPRENEURSHIP to fend for themselves, that, so far, the impact on The Indian government, while those who can af- its food supplies has been through its massive fi- ford it, seek better pros- controlled. The rabi harvest nancial package to indus- pects overseas to bypass closed with a record food tries, has tried to ensure regulations. When money production of 225 million a smooth exit from the is being given, for exam- tonnes of foodgrains. The lockdown. Yet, bureau- ple, MSME support given worry factor is the exodus cracy and babudom could by the banks, it’s import- of migrant labourers, who negate the full impact. ant that it comes with- felt uncared for in guest Deep control and licensing out strings attached. As States. When will it be safe should be done away with. far as the government is for them to return to agri- concerned, the important culture-intensive States in While the government’s thing is to reset our think- the west and the south? plan has been to promote ing and it must be from a Local labourers seem an a self-reliant India, there collaborative, cooperative unviable prospect for farm- is much work to be done and together approach. ing. to make this a reality. In- On the legislative side, the newly introduced re- forms in the agricultural sector could help revive it. These are amendments to the Essential Commodities Act, the dismantling of the APMC (Agricultural Pro- ducers’ Marketing Com- mittee) offering more com- petitive pricing, and the introduction of contract manufacturing. People talk P85

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION REVAMPING THE which completely chang- to deaths from the virus, AGRICULTURE SECTOR es our need to import oil. people are now looking to The agriculture system is So, think global, act local insurance companies to in dire need of a new leg- will change to think and make good their promises. islation to replace those act local but, with a glob- The pandemic has fun- crafted in the 1950s and al perspective. There will damentally changed the 60s. The need of the hour be more conservation and way the world works, and is direct linkages between savings as people look for how people live and think. farmers and corporates safety in their transactions. The changes in lifestyle bypassing the age-old, Consumerism will change, have long-term implica- well-entrenched middle- iaCsnOdgoVtinhIgeDt-Ao1m9cheCraiOncagMne PwdEirtehNamiDt. IUtiniModnusstrfioeTrsH.EthLEeGITmIMaACrkYeOtF and TANK IS IN man system. If you can OUR THINK get large industries like the There will definitely be a In Wuhan, the sale of ITC to come in and trade change because this is a private vehicles went up with the farmer, you will 1al ppeersrpeccteivnet. Thpehreenwoillmbee nmoonre aafbtoeurt t9h9eperloccekntdoofwCnhienaa’sseaudt.o find that ITC can get into wlCclaooohtoninkeossefrnuoremvroatsehtawrifoiiessnntmyi1aninwngpditlehalsarecbvihcroianetnurgnagstneta8,sspaa5pcnotedppiooteupnhlr-see. Pvascehenenohdowtipccoroflolneenossomuwr;msmanweanorel trlbteertvoaooefdpfliseuyc.nswwaeassaopnafrtAtivs6pa6ripttloee3r, an NPO and get a price cAemnetricoafn dthreeamwisegaolitnhg too fchtahngee useCopnusubmliecr tprraefnesrepnocerst aacnroys-s that the farmer wants. So, mthoe rweo. rCldhianrea cishahngoimng.eTtroantshaec- wwoithrldit.. TThhearet wisillwdhefaintitfeilny ablelya wtsieoonnrtslidahl’ssa/vluebxmuigroygveedspotrnoldcinuaecr.tsNmonha-aervs-e- the farmer is benefited, ccpohhanennsgouemmbeenecoarnuisswemhtehriises.tishias 1 per cent kteakte, nwa hhiitcahs cuwstaosmeprsarreamlayisneodb- the consumer is benefited, 1 per cent bseyssethd ewitphaCnOdVeIDm-ricel-aintedduecsseedn- and the middleman gets eitainnicgaggaol,sinnta—oondbmhutyshyigtcieainepgnlfCeerse,hl.oseicPanzanealeoi,tp.aAltpeiAaoutanctrr,ocoecnomlioersnaodinnc--eg- cut off. So be it. That will population owning about 85 per bsmileall Dcoernaelresrhso’ psA. Usnsdoecrsiatatniodinn,g Non-e change India. nattthhhbaeei’ossirmusahtaeuirfmkt9toeo9ittnspihohecanosorsnwtsociunremobneeottrhmseebosnseesfhiwattiCvvreiyeohriuneit-rog, luxur INSURANCEcent of the wealth of the world. That otipmeens, agosinogf tAhaptrielx3tr,aamnidlectoonb-e have t The post-COVID period swuitmh tehremtra[cfufsictomwearss].at 66per as cus will change the way busi- is what finally consumerism is. remai ness is done. The focus CCIDWIIDNNNOHOOIGSGTVVNAUCHEWESNROTTCUAGINATAHNMISIHNAILCULEINGEM-NRGG-- cCReOInSCVKtoIDoMnfWsITnuOIomGRrALmeTDraIOl NleIvNeAlsPp.OreSfTe- r- with C will now be on nationalism, BEERHBAEHVAIOVUIORUR eWnicthescrisaecs roansds natthueral wcaolarmldi- relate localism, and WTO glo- tacitimirooeevspneosorrsctccahaunhrartera.viInnbetgegaclrismoneomggcouia.nlvlalgersldfyiTon, rrciaonirnesnndauslsirivinaanindcegcul-.ye- like h balisation, which is both Nalsoans -weelsl assebunstini aeslsses/tlourexaussreyss sanita a risk and an opportunity. pthroeidr uricsktsexhpaosvuere,tatokebenttear phriot- ing, a India could have changes atdesocticnthdueisvmitdosuemalvlseesrasinndtrhbeeumsfiunateuinsrsee.soBbiun-t-, Peopl sveesstsineidnsuwraintche coCvOerVs iInDt-hreewlaatk-e again in its imports as well. For INPUTS BY eodf diesasssteersn?tBiaalssed —on phreyvgioieusneex,- patro TAPAN SINGHEL, ssaipnatneasrnuiipneirtvlnaaeencsstecti,e.moptneePoon, eptb.leoecTpaghleelecenaohensurtaaimnrlrlaaegytnhc, obeonrranastiinchndadeeinsr corne example, Punjab and Hary- MD & CEO BAJAJ ana have sugarcane, rice, ALLIANZ GENERAL not wired to see risk; otherwise, we these ch paddy, and wheat waste; INSURANCE would be staying in. come int if the government can put rity. With Taking the 2015 Chennai floods platforms IIsome money on research n the face of the dire financial as an example, conversation about in cybers insurance takes place while a di- reported to find a better use for bio- n ltahnedscfaapce,eaondf tpheerhadpisretrfaig-- saster, natural or otherwise, is al- malspam waste within the next one vininprsuaueesrrnd,ahicnpeaciseaepodlpcsuoleemlaatptnroraaedndgisneeescoadwttahoipsemloesfoar,kokeminadggnuotohdetdoe ready taking place, and there is a tacks. Th and a half years, India can dip in interest as soon as normalcy ing insura have an energy system their pace their promises. ganisatio The pandemic has fundamen- tally changed the way the world P86 works, and how people live and think. The changes in lifestyle have long-term implications for the market and industries. In Wuhan, the sale of private

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS again buying local, patron- ising small corner shops. Understanding this shift in consumer behaviour, the market has to be sensitive to their emotions in these trying times, going that extra mile to be with them [customers]. RISK MITIGATION IN A could be a shift in attitudes ing attacks, malspams, POST-COVID WORLD with the COVID-19, as the and ransomware attacks. With crises and natural damage caused has been These threats are prompt- calamities occurring reg- drawn out, with immense ing insurance companies ularly, insurance covers losses and prolonged dis- to match their pace with are becoming increasingly tress. evolving risks. Organisa- important. It also calls for tions are reviewing their individuals as well as busi- Today, industries have cyber risk management nesses to reassess their moved online, employees measures, remote work risk exposure, to better are working from home, processes, and downsiz- protect themselves in the and the majority of work is ing. future. But, do individuals being done remotely. With and businesses invest in these changes, new risk On the brighter side, the insurance covers in the factors come into play, like changes taking place now wake of disasters? Based cybersecurity. With depen- could be great opportuni- on previous experience, dence on digital platforms, ties for industries to be- people generally consider there has been a spike in come more resilient in the insurance to be a cost rath- cybersecurity threats, with future and emerge stron- er than an investment. The a reported rise in phish- ger than ever before. human brain is not wired to see risk; otherwise, we would be staying in. Taking the 2015 Chennai floods as an example, con- versation about insurance takes place while a disas- ter, natural or otherwise, is already taking place, and there is a dip in inter- est as soon as normalcy is restored. However, there P87

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION SSTTAATTUUSSOFOTFHE quality, and enable easier con- in the New York Times, Google TGIHGEEGCOIGNOMY tinrac2tin0g0. 9T.hiIst wwasapsrouvesnedby ftoher eamreplolyoewd 1,c2o1,0s0t0s c(omntorancte-byasoedr TECONOMYhe term ‘gig economy’ was ftriemelean)cteorsaincuiststogmlobearl inoptehrae- first used by Tina Brown, the mwaorrkketesruscceessnogfaggigepdlatfionrmtshoen 1tspi,0oeli2naeT,s0rhr0scien0rhweMfufhiloaslor-rctoihaamnerl2ete0eed1msri9sn,mptaiclnooatcymiltvelipeoesasn.rcseahudelpertoe-, then editor of The New York- ahrokitondmtteohe-yleswhreoalxeporpimdeunnggrss,seehup-oolbifanmabtfgiesogredcmoed“rlsaip,voeerrbcaieeotuiscno,noonecmsnt.hcy-. —cafnreelaanscserusrcean qbeusaeleintya,s tahnosde er in 2009. It was used for workers of Thfreeegi-gfloecaotnionmgy pcormojpeacnitess, wenhoabmleostlyeaasssoiecirate cthoenmtrsaelcvets- engaged in the knowledge-based nwinoitgmh.iccoTtmhuprinsaonuiwetsatthhseamtpsheraolvvevesea, nnwehcbiolye- economy pursuing “a bunch of scuocnh sasuUltbaenr,cAieirsbn, b,aLnydft, Eptsayrotr- gthigewomrkaerrks eartesthuocsecwehsosaorefagssiog- free-floating projects, consultan- aTtinamdskeRthabebibtcisot,nascunomndnerep.citTehcteheyesmwwaokhrekileeirt cpilaatetdfowrimth scomonpanriiedsew-shohasirminplgy cies, and part-time bits and pieces ethaseieyr ftorrawnosrakecrtsetdo fiinnd aa qduiicgk-, cpolnantefoctrwmorsk,eresctoocnuostmomyerhs.otel whilSeYtNheEyRtGraInAsacted in a digital marFkOetUplNacDe”A. TSIiOncNe then it has titeamlpormaray rjokbe(tapgliag)c, ew”h.ichScaincine- TroHoEmIRsF,RAhGoILmITeY deliveries, beenRuEsSeEdAtoRdCeHscrTibEeAaMlabour mar- cotdhlneuetdAshneceMarininiatbysdteukhesriantcaradsyr.odlabfswbeureoovrnuekyr, udespeendditnog Tehtce.fraagtiltehseitueatxiopneonfsgeig woofrkbeirgs ket with short-term contracts or fomunadrtkheatt sctoanrdpsoeraxptoiosendsb. y the pandemic. freelance work. twheithglosbhalogritg-teecromnomcyognetnrearcattess vLiadceTkdihnbegythgtreiagdinitneiaoctneoaplnrjoootbmesc,yttihocenoypmarore-- UoSr$fr2e0e4labnillcioenwinorgkro.ss volume, apnaenxitersem, seluycvhulnaesraUblbeelor,t.ABiurbsi-- TIn fact, Ronal Coase, Nobel lau- (weigt.hIrnitdreafn-sashpcaotrri,tnagtR)iotonakn-bianaglse5d8Cpsoeerravcisecenest, nnebs,seLsylfitk,e EptusbylicotrraTnaspsokrtRaatiobn- oNfoitb. Geilg wlaourkreeras atere, npotreemdpiclotyeedd (hvbaUiunictbmtd,iemarn,cst-Ohobalaernase)endatcehroceebstnubessleiwutneheomdserisnkeegesr,rw.sa.dnoTeTdrphhketeenehsydeer reate, phreedictteedrmthe‘gdeigmiseecoof ntroa-- ditionalmlayrg’ewcaoms pfiarnsietsuisnefadvobuyr stohlelydbeympiesoepleo; fcomtrpaadniteisonalasol on real people providing services eo(thmfdegoiitngsoeewayrTorocroihkrnfetafrioTsmrBihefar)etolhtteeowNrrenaneaa,cwtruitevhseltYoeowsmoutrcehpkorpeselitninrs- wtoolaouhfrtwigscoohgeurakirgclcsfeoootrmgawimsvkpoeussarlttwknoipeoitlrerrekassecinroisemnidtfhpwfeaaontohvripekoetseiuroriesnnr, ers who are small scale, can assure temporary positions. In a report P88 P46

COVID-19 COMPENDIUM THE LEGITIMACY OF OUR THINK TANK IS IN THE POWER OF OUR IDEAS In a report in the New York Times, Google employed 1,21,000 contract-based freelancers in its global operations in March 2019, compared to 1,02,000 full-time employees make it easier for workers seen as those who mostly What is disconcerting is to find a quick, temporary associate themselves with that this segment involves job (a gig), which can in- companies that have an huge numbers. In India, clude any kind of work, de- economic turnout them- close to 1.5 million drivers pending on the industry. selves, while gig workers work for platforms such are those who are associ- as Uber and Ola. Accord- A Mastercard survey ated with companies who ing to a report published found that the global gig simply connect workers to by Invest India, the share economy generates US$ customers. of the gig economy is as 204 billion in gross vol- high as 25per cent in the ume, with transporta- THEIR FRAGILITY services sector in an ur- tion-based services (eg. The fragile situation of gig ban labour force totalling ride-sharing) taking 58per workers stands exposed over 35 million. During the cent of it. Gig workers are by the pandemic. Lack- 2008 recession, gig-econ- not employed solely by ing the innate protection omy steamrollers like people; companies also provided by traditional Uber and Airbnb emerged outsource tasks to trained jobs, they are an extreme- and turned successful, but workers, which also gives ly vulnerable lot. Busi- this pandemic is defeating workers the option to work nesses like public trans- their business models. for multiple companies in portation (Uber, Ola) are temporary positions. In bleeding, and the victims MITIGATING a report in the New York are these workers. These STRATEGIES Times, Google employed human-based businesses It’s not that all gig busi- 1,21,000 contract-based depend on real people pro- nesses have abandoned freelancers in its global viding services from end their workers; efforts have operations in March 2019, to end. Work from home been made to protect compared to 1,02,000 full- (WFH) is not a possibility them. Swiggy and JustEat time employees. for most in this segment. have advocated “contact- There is one distinction here — freelancers can be P89

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION less deliveries” and have portedly, the Indian gov- With the prevalence offered free medical con- ernment is seized of the of the pandemic, work- sultation for workers. Uber matter and is ramping up arounds must be found to suspended pool rides in plans to bring gig workers keep people safe and em- the U.S., India, and Cana- in unorganised sectors ployed. This can be done da, and offered financial within the ambit of social by minimising contact assistance to workers in security schemes. between consumer and the event they test positive workers, providing safe- for the virus. There have REDEFINING LABOUR ty equipment, and ensur- also been tie-ups with oth- LAWS AND WORK ing medical assistance in er retailers to help keep Lack of clarity in classi- case they test positive. the gig economy working fication/ definition of gig — with Flipkart, BigBasket workers has led to their Ultimately, the pandem- and Spencer’s Retail — to exclusion from the ex- ic has given most digital provide essentials. Swig- tended coverage of la- platforms an opportunity gy, Dunzo, and Amazon bour laws and protection. to show that there is the have also done the same. The counter debate is long-term necessity of a Possibly, a similar reorien- that modern work reali- flexible workforce. The tation of business models ties demand labour laws cooperation between in- could have been done to that have greater flexibil- dustries, such as Uber and stem the migrant exodus ity and not be hidebound Flipkart, shows how there from urban centres. with moribund traditional can be an inherent support definitions, there being no network in the gig econo- Despite these moves, ‘one size fits all’ solution my itself, which can work there has been many lay- industry-wise. towards providing for its offs. Of the approximate workers and consumers. 450 driver centres, Uber operates worldwide, 40per cent may shut down. Lyft Inc., the alternative to Uber in North America, is said to be dismissing 17per cent of staff and cutting salaries. Airbnb Inc. has said it would be cutting a quarter of its workforce. Swiggy plans to lay-off nearly 1,100 people in In- dia, while providing them a few months of salary based on their tenure. Re- P90