TIHR Authors

ALTY BEGMURADOV This practice was widespread in the times of Turkmenbashi; however, at that time, theParanoia (10 December 2008) number of journalists who could enter thePrior to the recent «Oil and Gas of country was reduced to minimum. Currently,Turkmenistan» exhibition, I received several the state authorities pretend to be «openingletters from journalists of various foreign mass the doors of the country»; yet, obtaining a visamedia. All the letters stated that these for foreign journalists as well as moving acrossjournalists had managed to get entry visas to the country freely is as difficult as in the past.Turkmenistan to take part in the exhibition Those journalists, who are allowed to enterand requested appointments to meet and the country on holiday or to attenddiscuss present day life in Turkmenistan. exhibitions, are so closely observed by the authorities as if they were not journalists butAs is usual in these cases, we arranged the staff of the enemy’s special services.times and venues of the meetings, different Consequently, all meetings with foreignprearranged signs and described each other journalists have to be arranged by their localfor faster identification. I warned my colleagues following the scenario of crimecolleagues in advance that, most likely, they stories.would be put under the close surveillance oftheir hosts: either literarily, staying nearby or For the meeting, which I arranged with theproviding them with a busy agenda of first journalist in a café of a shopping mall, Iactivities and sight-seeing tours. These tricks arrived in advance. At the time nearer to theare always used by the Turkmen authorities to meeting, I noticed active young people wholimit as much as possible any opportunity of were dressed in formal suits with hand-heldunauthorized contacts of foreign journalists radios. Talking over the radio, they walkedwith their Turkmen colleagues and residents through the floors of the shopping mallof the country and also to hinder the looking inside the shops and cafés. When themovement of the guests outside the «white journalists I expected entered the premises,city», which serves as a display case of the these observers arranged a «merry-go-round»country and not to let them see the rest of around them as in third rate spy thrillersTurkmenistan. reporting on their movements to each other.Another, perhaps even more crucial reason for All this was done so obviously (orthe surveillance of the foreign journalists is unprofessionally), so that it was easy to noticeidentifying the citizens of Turkmenistan who for all the visitors of the shopping centerdecided to establish these unauthorized including the journalists. Naturally, ourcontacts. Such independent action is seen by meeting had to be cancelled and I left. As wasthe authorities as unacceptable and is discovered at the next meeting with thesequalified almost as «betrayal of the journalists, one of them, negligently,motherland». repeatedly mentioned the venue of the meeting when talking to his colleagues over150 the hotel phone. This engendered both the surveillance and the «preventive activities» at the venue of our rendezvous. Next time they had to be more careful, so they did not mention aloud the venue of the meeting and firstly went by taxi around the city for a while in order to make sure that there was no chase. When the journalists left the country, they reported that upon their return to the hotel, they were met by the same young plain clothes men who, when seeing the journalists,

started talking fast over the radio. These state security, frequently extemporizing thepeople were constantly guarding my problem and making out of it a threat ofacquaintances until their departure from national level. The activities of journalists areTurkmenistan. referred to as such threats as their danger is presented to the authorities asThe next contact with another journalist was commeasurable with the preparation of ato take place during the reception after the «color revolution».exhibition. As soon as we met each other andstarted the conversation, two young men My colleague said that he would surely writeimmediately appeared near us and casually about it: the “attention” given by the specialtried to get as near to us as possible so as to services to all foreigners seems too intrusivehear the content of our discussion. When we and is in stark contradiction with theswitched to English to secure our conversation statements of the authorities onfrom intruders, one of them started to turn on «transparency» and «democratization of thea device which was hidden under his clothes. country».Apparently, it was a recording device, and hedid his best to move closer to us. My The next day I discovered that all my phones,companion and I took glasses of wine, left our home and cell, were blocked. I contacted thecutlery and started walking backwards and repair services and the office of the mobileforwards across the banquet hall trying to operator. They promised to help, but, in fact,avoid both the pushy surveillance people, and all connections were restored when theany other groups. conference was over and when all foreign journalists had left the country.The question of my companion as to what thespecial services and the authorities want to However, upon the request of my foreigncontrol by acting like this, made me feel colleagues, I decided to send with theembarrassed. I explained that under Niyazov`s journalists, who managed to attend theregime, all similar contacts were controlled conference, a selection of materials whichout of principle, and all unauthorized contacts characterize the current situation with regardwith foreigners – journalists and diplomats – to the mass media in Turkmenistan. The setwere taken by the officials as almost like a contained nothing extraordinary, justbetrayal of the motherland. Now the control Turkmen newspapers and magazines, recordsover these contacts became more specific. of Turkmen TV programs, some booksThey seek to suppress unnecessary journalistic authored by the President and posters withzeal and identify those Turkmen citizens who his portraits and his family tree. I did not takedisplay too much initiative in looking for the risk to leave the parcel at the receptioncontacts with foreigners. The authorities try to desk of the hotel and decided to wait for theopen the country to the outside world by arrival of the group of journalists from theshowing only the things they consider sightseeing tour.appropriate. Five minutes later, I was surrounded by twoAn important factor that contributes to the young people with radios in the hotel hall. Tenincreased paranoia within the governmental minutes later, there were already five ofstructures is its conscious cultivation of higher them. The packet in my hands made them feeland middle ranking officials in the Ministry of very nervous; however, they did not dare evenNational Security. On the one hand, they need to come up to me in the hotel hall crowedto justify their existence in the country; on the with foreigners, not to mention to stop meother - to prove that they are competent and talking to the foreign journalists. I managed toindependent in their decisions. If under meet my acquaintances and hand the parcelNiyazov the «chekists» simply followed over to them under the stare of the peopleinstructions from above, now they largely with radios.determine the spectrum of threats to the151

As I expected, as soon as I left the hotel, the On the day the Japanese journalists arrived, Itwo men stopped me and asked me about my got another call and the same «staff of theparcel in a rather rude manner. When I started Ministry of National Security» reminded meexplaining, they interrupted me and said: that the Japanese delegation is here and my«Now you will go with us and write an contacts with them are «undesirable». «You’dexplanatory note». I answered that I would better not leave your house», said the «staff»not go anywhere and, if someone needed an at the end. Immediately after that, my homeexplanation, I would be waiting for official and cell phones were out of order again. Asummons. At that moment, a group of vehicle with two young people talking overforeigners came up to the hotel, so my the hand-held radio appeared at the gates ofcompanions backed down and murmuring my house. I cancelled my plans andinsults, they hastened away talking over the appointments, stayed at home and startedradio incessantly. writing this material.The next day, I was called by an alleged officer Learning arbitrariness (29 July 2009)of the Ministry of National Security who For several days, the school graduates leavingstarted asking me what I had handed over to Turkmenistan to enter foreign universities, thethe foreign journalist. I made a verbal students who are already enrolled in theseinventory of my parcel. The person on the universities as well as their parents experienceother end of the phone was primarily confusion and shock. All students and schoolsinterested whether I sent any materials which graduates without exception are being takencontained state secrets (?!), materials off all transportation means crossing theundermining the political system (?!), Turkmen border. Absence of the neededslanderous materials (?!), and who was the documents, which are allegedly issued by theexact addressee of my parcel. Above all, they Ministry of Education of Turkmenistan, is thewere interested in electronic information formal reason for the exit ban.storage devices – CDs, digital memory cards,etc. I had to re-confirm that all materials As was found out, the reason behind this banhanded over to the journalist were of legal is self-explanatory for the authorities. Afterorigin and contained no more slander than graduation from a foreign university, a youngofficial mass media. I was told that «… we will professional comes to the state authorities tocarefully follow all publications in western «verify» the foreign diploma and,mass media after this conference. If we consequently the quality of education.understand that the negative information in According to the Turkmen officials, the qualitytheir articles was provided by you, you will of education in many foreign universities doessuffer the consequences». I was also warned not meet «certain standards», and manythat a week later, a large delegation of foreign universities do not have stateJapanese journalists would arrive in Ashgabat accreditation; therefore it was decided toand I was urgently «requested» to withdraw grant the permit for the exit only to those whofrom meetings with them. I was not aware is going to enter or continue the studies in theabout the visit of the group of Japanesejournalists then; my phone was blocked untilthat discussion and I had no access to theInternet. After the conversation was over, Idecided to check my mails and found twomails from my Japanese colleagues asking fora meeting to discuss the present-day life inTurkmenistan. Apparently, the content of mymailbox and these particular letters wereknown to the special services, so they decidedto anticipate all my actions.152

state-run foreign universities only. concluded. «Another problem is that theConsequently, the graduates, wishing to enter Constitution of Turkmenistan and its laws doa foreign university, should present an not correspond to the international norms and«invitation from the school», and those in fact contradict international commitmentsalready enrolled – a contract or agreement of Turkmenistan under the UN and OSCEfrom a foreign university. agreements. For instance, the Constitution of Turkmenistan does not stipulate for the rightThe above mention requirement was never to freely leave the country and return to it. Itannounced. The students without any should be noted that this norm, even thoughsuspicion headed for the selected universities; formally, but was present in all Niyazov`syet, they were stopped at the border and editions of the Constitutions. The Law ofwere not allowed to board a plane or go with Turkmenistan «On migration» indicatesany other transport. Panic has begun. From all directly that in order to leave the country toborder check points, located outside the study in university, one should possess acapital, young people went to the Ministry of respective confirmation or invitation from theEducation in Ashgabat in order to get the educational establishment». This is the verdictrequired stamp. However, this did not help. of the lawyer: all has been done in fullEven with a stamp of the Education Ministry, accordance with law. And nobody ismany young people were again sent back as concerned with the fact that in this situationthe border services required the documents to that these laws are in contradiction withbe stamped with a coat of arms seal, which international norms.the Ministry still does not have. Enrollees, students and their parents, whoMeanwhile, the admission exams are about to were caught in this situation, started callingstart and delays with the exit can postpone various programs launched by the foreignthe entrance to the universities for one year. embassies to facilitate the studies abroad andAnd this will happen only if the foreign writing appeals to foreign missions and OSCE;university selected will meet the «certain the latter, however, refuse to give anystandards», which Turkmen officials have comments on the situation referring to thedefined as «appropriate». In case a university absence of information from the officialdoes not meet criteria required by the authorities of Turkmenistan.Turkmen officials, an enrollee will be denied inexiting the country. Similarly, students will The failure of the Niyazov`s and currenthave to terminate their studies as they will be policies in education, quality of teaching anddenied in exiting the country and, strict admission quotas set up for theconsequently, in getting education, which has universities resulted in the situation thatbeen chosen and paid for. annual number of enrollees in foreign universities was twice as high as the amountThe situation is absurd as people are ready to of students in Turkmen schools of higherpay for education and the authorities not education. Trying to regulate the number ofsimply offer no support but obstruct by all educated people in the country, and primarilymeans the access to education! their ideological loyalty, the state has decided to stop the brain drain to the countries, whereSeveral people asked a lawyer as to how legal the Rukhanama is not taught but where youngthe actions of authorities are from the view people can learn unneeded stuff. Turkmenpoint of the national legislation of authorities are mostly concerned with non-Turkmenistan. The response was not state universities, such as the American Kyrgyzencouraging. University in Bishkek, KIMEP in Almaty and many others, which, inter alia, make use of«No violations of the national legislation on the support provided by the internationalbehalf of the Turkmen authorities were charity funds and are known for liberalismrevealed», an experienced lawyer has153

both in the process of teaching and the range An “unauthorized” flow of young people,of disciplines taught. wishinAn “unauthorized” flow of young people,wishing to get higher education, is nothing elsebut a response of the society to the statepolitics to get hold of higher education; aboveall to control its ideological dimension. Theauthorities did not welcome such a responseand they tried to fill up this gap. Time will showwhat will come out of this. We will follow thesituation.154

155

AISHA BERDYEVA Then another question arises. In May 2008 during a governmental session the PresidentComparative arithmetic (18 July 2008) Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov ordered toIn modern Turkmenistan the citizens can renovate two cinemas in Ashgabat andforget not only about the fact that people allotted another 20 mln dollars for that: 12have a right to know where the money of mln for one cinema and 8 for another.taxpayers are channeled to but also aboutwhy the sums spent are unreasonably high. One must not be an expert to understand that the price for the renovation works has beenIf one makes a short analysis of the speeches multiply overcharged; in this particular case 11of the President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly and 7 times respectively. The information onBerdymukhamedov, the question arises: does the actual costs of renovation of an oldhe have an economic adviser? Or financial cinema can be easily found on-line: oneadviser? Or a budget planner? Or does he million dollars!have a speechwriter? Or something of thissort? Is there a Ministry of Finances in All understand that the renovation works of aTurkmenistan at all? It seems that there is. cinema cannot cost 12 mln dollars no matterDoes it operate? how badly the cinema dilapidated is. Nor can the renovation cost 8 million. However, this isChairing the 8 July meeting which focused on stated by the President of the country.social infrastructure development, thePresident briefed the officials on the large Surprisingly, he has no slightest doubt aboutscale building projects which are the currently this sum. Furthermore, two months later, atunderway in the country and how much it the session of government the Presidentwould cost. briefed on the construction of the large sports complex with a swimming pool, a stadium andFor instance, a modern sports complex which a hotel, and all this costs as much as theis being built in Turkmenabat (Lebap velayat) renovation of two cinemas! However, no oneby the international group of companies at the government meeting questions this as«Itera» costs 20 million dollars. The project well.consists of a swimming pool, a stadium, ahotel and other facilities. The project was Does this country have a budget at all? Or aordered by the khyakimlik of the Lebap budget commission? What criteria are appliedvelayat. when cost estimates are approved for this that construction project? Or everything isThe undertaking is plausible and the price is decided, as usual, «with a stroke of the pen»quite fair taking into account the scale of the by the leader of the state? In this case, it isproject. better either not to mention about this or to edit the President’s speeches. It might be that156 some one considers the people of Turkmenistan ignorant but they are not ignorant to such an extent. In his speeches, Berdymukhamedov often talks about «national model of the development of the Turkmen economy». It appears that at this rate Turkmen economy will move rapidly. Most likely, in the wrong direction.

157

MARAL CHARYEVA in the offices during the meetings, at the sessions and in the fields, not daring to lift upIt is your triumph, footmen! (21 March their heads. This has turned into essential2010) ritual.Being a footman is the most reliableinvestment currency into personal prosperity. On 18 February, participants of the extendedIt would be absurd and shameful to call the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, includingpolitical system in Turkmenistan a democracy; the leaders of diplomatic corps, looked likeit is rather a repressive regime of sycophancy. diligent students taking notes in their notepads. At this meeting, fawning expressionOn 19 February, during the celebrations to of gratitude of the top echelon of power hasmark «the third anniversary of the election of reached its heights. On behalf of the Turkmenthe Turkmenistan’s President to the highest people, A. Nuberdyeva, the head of Medjlis,state post», worships to our current leader not just read out a eulogistic speech to thehave almost reached the level reminiscent of President but rather sang a pompous Ode in athat which had been prevailing during rhythmical manner. According to mediaTurkmenbashi`s tenure, although the epithets reports, this was followed by «deputies of thechosen are still more reserved: «our beloved», chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, heads of«our dear», etc. However, the name of the the military and law enforcement agencies,deceased President was not even mentioned ministries and departments and Turkmenthis time, though the Flag Day, as the diplomats serving abroad» queuing withnewspapers used to report, «happily bunches of flowers wrapped in identical greencoincided with the birthday of Turkmenbashi paper to express «most sincerethe Great», who would have turned 70 this congratulations and warm greetings to theyear. state leader». There was a frightful feeling that if ordered «Down!» these people with theAnd all those, who had heaped fulsome praise power but without human dignity wouldon the previous leader, plumb forgot about throw themselves down and creep on bendedhim and channeled all enthusiasm of the hot knees with flowers in teeth …footman’s sole to the new object. Allattributes of the image worship, including «During the ceremony, M. Garryev, thetrained children who are happily reporting chairman of the Central Commission forabout their love to the motherland and the Elections and Referenda, expressed his warmPresident by rote at the numerous greetings to the nation’s leader».celebrations, have revived. Officials of all Congratulations expressed by M. Garryev areranks are also looking like mechanic dolls, who traditionally «warm», both in the times of theare taking notes of the guidelines provided by Niyazov`s «Golden age», and in the currentthe President in a servile manner, standing still époque of the «New Renaissance». The head on elections and referenda has suggested158 awarding the President the title of the Hero of Turkmenistan already for the second time. Again without success. In the light of the increasing wave of the absolute worship, the «glorification» of the President is the first step toward the life-time presidency. And it was not by chance that at this meeting the leader of Turkmenistan mentioned about the establishment of «some new political party <…> if there is a will». It is obvious that this statement was done not for internal but external «users», who, in the

situation of the «new blossom of the Turkmendemocracy» will habitually close the eyes formany things, including grave violation of basichuman rights, shocking judicial practice, statenationalism and «eternal» presidency.There are footmen outside Turkmenistan aswell.159

PISHIK CHOPANY imprisonment conditions for their fathers, husbands and brothers who had beenFalling short of expectations (12 August sentenced to long terms in prison.2008)What does the Interpretive statement However, since the authorities once againaddressed by the Turkmen side to the OSCE called the «individuals who committed aOffice of Democratic Institutions and Human terrorist act in Turkmenistan in NovemberRights (ODIHR), which has been published by 2002 and were condemned by the Supremethe TIHR before, say? Court of Turkmenistan», who currently reside abroad, criminals at the international level (!)Turkmen authorities are still against the (it should be noted that they are notparticipation of the Turkmen opposition considered criminals in these countries),leaders and independent NGOs in the OSCE apparently one should not hope that the fateconferences. It the statement they refer to of those who had spent over 5 years in prisonsome Turkmen individuals who took part in would be changed.the previous OSCE/ODIHR conferences as tocriminals. In principle, it is good that such a statement has been made by the Turkmen authorities.It means that the stance of the new Turkmen Now we need to wait for the OSCE`s reactiongovernment on this issue is in no way different to this document or the reaction of thisfrom that of the Niyazov`s dictatorship and organization to the possible participation ofthe authorities are no longer trying to conceal «criminals» in the forthcoming fall conferencethis fact. held by the OSCE in Warsaw.And what about the promises given by the Let’s wait?new President a year – a year and half ago –to the international organizations and foreign Comparisons (21 December 2008)diplomats regarding the up-coming changes A forum «Main directions of municipaland softening of the political regime in the government development in Turkmenistan»,country? organized by the Medjlis and the Permanent Representation of the United Nations inIt is not so very serious that foreigners Turkmenistan, was held in Ashgabat.believed these promises. Yet, it was also thecitizens of the country including the relatives Just to recall, during the last years of his life,of those who had been convicted in relation to the former President S. Niyazov wasthe November 2002 events who believed particularly interested in local governmentthem. institutions. According to his idea, the law «On the etrap`s and city`s Khalk Maslakhaty» wasPeople hoped if not for the review of the supposed to become the basis for thecriminal cases but at least for the relaxation of development of local government institutions.160

The law foresees that khyakims of the citiesand etraps were to be elected out of themembers of the local Khalk Maslakhaty. Thiswas a rather progressive initiative taking intoaccount the established practice of appointingkhyakims from other regions who had been, upuntil then, even unknown to the localpopulation.However, the new President firstly repeatedlyviolated this law and then finally changed itreverting everything to how it had beenbefore. Now, similarly to the early Niyazov era,the khyakims are appointed by the President athis discretion, i.e. not out of the people electedto the local government institutions by thepopulation.It remains unknown what the representativesof the UN and the Medjlis discussed at theforum. However, it is a fact thatBerdymukhamedov broke the citizens` right toelect the head of the local authorities whichhad been granted to them, odd as it may nowseem, by S. Niyazov.Some more comparisons related to theelections: the practice of «alternative»elections, i.e. with 2-3 candidates for everyseat, was introduced by Niyazov. For instance,during the previous elections to the Medjlis,the official press published the biographies ofall candidates and their election programs inadvance.At the recent elections, held on 14 December,the voters learnt the names of the candidatesshortly before the voting and these werepublished only in the regional (velayat`s)newspapers.So here one can easily see a clear stepbackward as opposed to the late Niyazov era.I referred to these cases without an intentionto whiten Niyazov. The question is not whetherNiyazov was more democratic thanBerdymukhamedov but whetherBerdymukhamedov is more democratic thanNiyazov …161

SAYARA DJUMABAEVA as a rule, they come from the President. Therefore, any initiative undertaken by theAgricultural sector will recover on command tenants, agronomists or heads of the daikhan(8 January 2009) associations is considered a sign of disrespectOnly after 1 mln tons of cotton had been towards the «commander».harvested by the Turkmen peasants, thePresident ordered the people to clear the Thus, immediately after the President hadfields of cotton stalks and start preparing the announced «the tremendous victory achievedlands for the new crop. The «main by the Turkmen daikhans» who contributed toagriculturalist» of the country did not take «having yielded over 1 mln tons of cotton ininto account the fact that it was already the the country» and had given the order to thesecond half of December. khyakims to implement «immediate measures to lay down firm foundations for future crop»,For the northern provinces of Turkmenistan, everything started moving. This happened noti.e. the entire Dashoguz and a part of the earlier than mid-December.Lebap velayat, the order from above came toolate: snow and frozen ground prevented the Not Kutlymurat alone but also all cottondaikhans from taking the tractors to the fields. growers of the velayat have irrevocably lostThus, tens of thousands of hectares designed time. The command to launch the fall-winterfor cotton crops remained unploughed. field works was finally received; however, not much can be done now.Kutlymurat I. from the Alisher Navoi`s daikhanassociation (former kolkhozes) in the Kutlymurat and his neighbors are sure: theDashoguz velayat cannot hide his indignation: agricultural labor will be effective when it is«I knew that I would be whipping the cat. We the daikhans who decide, taking into accountcould have cleared the field of cotton stalks the season and weather conditions, on whatalready by 10 November and got started with work to carry out on the fields and,the planning works but I was not allowed to considering the demand, determine what touse the tractor. I even wanted to do it the old grow.way: to dig up the stalks with a hoe and collectthem manually but the head of our daikhan Saparmurat Turkmenbashi established aassociation prohibited this. He said the tradition to instruct the country’s farmersfollowing: your spot of land is right next to the when to start the sowing campaign and whenroad; if the khyakim notices your initiative, we to complete, let us say, the irrigation of thewill both suffer. We haven’t received the lands. Daikhans hoped that the evil practice ofinstructions to do this yet». the command administration in agriculture would disappear together withDespite the reforms proclaimed by the Turkmenbashi`s epoch. It seems that all hopesPresident G. Berdymukhamedov in the were in vain…agricultural sector, he and all thegovernmental officials are still practicingcommand management.As in the army, the orders should not bediscussed but unquestionably executed, since,162

163

MURAD GELDYEV Let us look at the results of the year. As usually, the most high-profile events areA new independence anniversary (1 immediately recalled, and some of them canNovember 2008) hardly be considered as achievements. However, it is these events which «make theA sad replica concerning … year», despite the vivacious tone of the official reports.This publication opens a new column ofnarrations on life and developments in For over two days, glorified Turkmen specialTurkmenistan. The authors will include those services and the Turkmen army, which iswho live both in Turkmenistan and outside the «licked into shape» to be able to march incountry but who are concerned with the parades, failed to neutralize two (!)events happening there. Below is the first «terrorists» who were armed only with smallpublication of this series devoted to reflecting arms. Turkmen security officials could notupon the results of a new year of cope with the militants and suffered heavyindependence. losses which may have been even heavier if the «terrorists» had not run out ofA new year of Turkmen independence has ammunition. What country’s defense capacitypassed. Following the long-standing tradition can we talk about with such an army andto mark the end by a festivity, one can view special services? In a legitimate state, theythe achievements of the country’s authorities, should be able to do much more than drivei.e. the country’s leadership. What is the President on a tank across the marsh ofimmediately obvious is that the property and to have more skills than fightingpersonification of all events in the country has with toothless intelligentsia. And the relatedreached the level of Niyazov`s era. «Spring is question as to whether the Turkmen state isover, summer has arrived, and we thank our able to secure control over its borders andParty for this!». In Turkmenistan again the stability in the country remains open.words of thanks are addressed exclusively tothe President. When we open any Turkmen The Constitution… The world knows no othernewspaper or watch any Turkmen TV channel, more distressing document than the Turkmenit is clear: in non-material propaganda, the Constitution. People used to say about thecult of personality of the President first, Niyazov`s version: «There is aBerdymukhammedov has managed to become framework, but no content». Only followingas dominant as the cult of his predecessor. Niyazov’s instructions was the content added.Within 2,5 years, his personality has become The result was that the Constitution turnedmore widespread than Niyazov himself within into a mixture of spells containing vaguethe same time period. Not surprising: the path democratic slogans which were supposed tohas already been trodden. give some form of civilized appearance. A source of pride of the present authorities –164 the new Constitution – seems to have swept out Niyazov and his ideas from everywhere; however, from underneath the surface, the shoots of Niyazov`s heritage are nevertheless thrusting through. The mentioning of the presidential term was shamefacedly omitted, so again there is free reign for a life term. There are no guarantees for the rights and freedoms of the people. Any ways to approach the authorities are blocked, so that no democrat can break through. As usual, all

this was proclaimed «for the good of the natural gas in Turkmenistan. Yet, there is onecitizens». problem: natural gas cannot be attributed to the merits of the Turkmen authorities who didSo, since the President is responsible for all not spend any talents or hard work onthat is happening in the country, he should be producing this gas. And soon we will knowheld accountable for the image of the country what the Turkmen leadership is going to doas it is viewed by the international community with this gift of Allah.and not politicians and internationalbureaucrats greedy for Turkmen gas. Let us As of today, Turkmenistan looks like the Soviethave a look at the image of Turkmenistan that Union from the outside: Upper Volta withthe President and his followers have shaped rockets. But, instead of rockets, gas, much gas;to be demonstrated to the entire world. and lawlessness, tortures and censorship.In its last report, Reporters without Borders Turkmen financial economists (17moved Turkmenistan to one of the last November 2008)positions in the ranking of countries’ freedom The President of Turkmenistan signed aof expression. How do you like the threesome resolution on the establishment of theof the countries: Eritrea, North Korea and Stabilization Fund of Turkmenistan. In theTurkmenistan? Any comments needed? current situation when the whole world is at fever pitch with the financial crisis, theThe European Court of Human Rights de facto decision sounds quite reasonable.banned the Ukrainian authorities to repatriatea refugee at the request of the Turkmen The accumulation of the surplus monies of theauthorities. The judges from the European state into special funds is a common practice.Court of Human Rights are sure that torture is It also used to be implemented incommon practice in Turkmenistan. And this Turkmenistan but in a specific Turkmen way:served as the main reason for the ban. most of the currency returns received from the export of gas were accumulated in theSoon we will hear the reaction of the private accounts of the first President Niyazovinternational community to the totally absurd as well as going into the «Fund named afterdecree of the President which officially Saparmurat Niyazov». It is obvious that it wasintroduces censorship. This is being done Niyazov who solely managed these all-regardless of the fact that the new Turkmen stashes of money. Therefore, theConstitution guarantees freedom of creativity. arbitrariness of the decisions made wasNo state which respects itself and counts on absolute. Palaces, planes, “white-elephant”gaining the respect of civilized countries will projects were endless; he was the master ofdare to carry out such a nonsensical action,such an explicit violation of its ownconstitution and commonly accepted norms.Awarding Berdymukhamedov with a «sign ofthe highest distinction «for humanism»number 1» causes nothing but bitterness. It isobvious that the understanding of humanismby Turkmen authorities profoundly differsfrom that employed by Reporters withoutBorders and the judges of the European Courtof Human Rights.Oh, and not to forget! I seem to have missedthe most important of events. Internationalauditors confirmed the gigantic resources of165

his destiny, particularly when his own pocket years and where this money was channeledand the state budget meant the same thing. into. Nor did they ask any permission to spend the surplus. Certainly, the past sins can beHowever, this is not exactly the same: the attributed to the personality of Niyazov.budget, in its common meaning, never existedin Turkmenistan. There were several of them, However, now, when Turkmenistan hasand the secrecy surrounding the number of employed rather transparent (as thebudgets died with him. However, all of the authorities argue) schemes for gas sales, thebudgets were managed recklessly. Without estimated volumes of sales are known, theany reliable economic analysis conducted or prices of gas export to Russia, China and Irancalculations assessing the advisability of the are set. Why not identify and publish at leastprojects launched; or even taking into account the projected amount of in payments, asthe budgetary balance, multimillion dollar economists call them? Since the state budgetprojects were implemented. For example, has been recently approved, the projectedbetween 6 and 8 billion dollars (!) was allotted surplus is easy to estimate. However, thefor the construction of the «Golden Age authorities conceal the surplus. This is also aLake». Where the money for these projects reason why Turkmenistan still lacks crediblecame from and how much these expenditures GDP indicators. The President mentions onlywere really needed still remains unclear. relative figures expressed as a percentage; however, he is unwilling to reveal at least anAfter Niyazov`s death, our new authorities estimate of the expected income. Why is this?took hold of all illegal financial flows.However, this did not make the economy any Coming back to the idea of the Stabilizationmore transparent. Quite the opposite, this Fund, it should be pointed out that its conceptgenerated the same temptations and the was drafted by odd individuals. Otherwise,same absurd large-scale investment projects what does the President Berdymukhamedovlike those in Niyazov`s days. This is quite mean when talking about the Stabilizationlogical: the absence of a separation of powers Fund to be established: «…the fund will bein the country guarantees free reign for every formed from the remaining surplus of thepossible eccentricity of the country’s leader state budget and will subsequentlysuch as luxurious resorts, the highest flagstaff accumulate the financial assets of the state».in the world and new cities in the desert. Hold on, Mister President! Let us make thingsAccording to the idea of the Stabilization clear: if the fund is formed by the remainingFund, the entire surplus of the budget will go surplus, let me ask where the differenceinto this fund; or, more precisely, following between the original and remaining surplus inthe information on setting up of such a fund, its financial equivalent will be channeled to?its financial assets will be formed from the And if the surplus expenditures are foreseen,«remaining surplus of the state budget». This who will decide how this money should beleads to the most interesting points: the spent? Is there a law or any other normativebudget in our country is an odd thing in itself base which strictly regulate the expenditure ofand no ordinary mortal understands how it is the surplus? Or should it be spent anyhow?being filled. No one knows how much the After all, what criteria will be applied whenstate earns by selling gas. According to the cutting off «the remaining surplus» into theabove-mentioned information, the state Stabilization Fund? And isn’t too muchrevenues have a surplus now, i.e. an excess expected? The fund's resources are going toreceived by the state over the planned be channeled into «the social-economicexpenditures (expenditure budget) to support development of Turkmenistan, … and thethe state apparatus and social infrastructure. implementation of various budget programs, introduction of modern technologies and stateThe authorities have never explained to the of the art equipment…».people how much this surplus was in previous166

At this point another question arises: if the the stage of the idea development. Their logicStabilization Fund is going to be used to was as follows: we take the surplus and chewfinance «the implementation of various it out again and again…What remains will bebudget programs…», why are these placed into the bank at interest. For ourexpenditures attributed to the Stabilization children. By the way, Mister President, youFund and not financed directly from the said literarily so: for «our children». I wonderbudget as is prescribed by the very name of whose children you meant?these programs? Furthermore: «…Some partof the Stabilization Fund, namely the so called No, all this is from evil. Those who thought of«funds of future generations» will be invested setting up of the Stabilization Fund werein low risk, long-term financial shares and real simply not aware what associatedestate. mechanisms, institutes and tools should be created in order for the fund а) to be set up,This will be Turkmenistan's insurance fund for b) to start operations, c) to functionour children». Interestingly, will something effectively, d) work for the good of the people.remain for our children from the «remaining Furthermore, some of these mechanisms,surplus» after the financing of these «budget tools and institutes should rest with theprograms»? And when will our children start society and, most importantly, be of thebenefiting from these good intentions? And uttermost transparency! Without all this, thewhy is this fund designed for «future Stabilization Fund will again become agenerations» only? Why not tie this Fund to personal bank account of the President forthe Pension Fund and guarantee, increase fulfilling all of his whims and fancies.and, most importantly, timely index pensionbenefits in order to make them decent? We At the moment, the establishment of the Fundshould not forget that it is mostly present-day looks rather like a PR action. The President hasretirees who contributed to the degree of already flown on a battle-plane, shot asafety which prevented a crash of the national machine gun and ridden a tank. Our Presidenteconomy in the transition period and which is has even won a little war with terrorist-drug-currently used by all people. However, this is takers. Finally, he has set up the Stabilizationonly true when the authorities do include Fund! And Mr. Putin, for instance, alsoretirees when they talk about “benefits for boarded a submarine. It is a pity we do notpeople” in general. have a submarine in Turkmenistan; otherwise, the analogies would be more complete.On the other hand, children are little andirrational creatures who do not know a thing And looking at their President and his absurdabout promises. However, the authorities will expenditures and eccentricities, the rest of thehave to be responsible for these promises for Turkmneistani citizens can only ask: «Where isthe present-day generation, and they are very the money?!»unwilling to do this. Yet, in almost all countrieswhere similar funds exist, the youngergenerations receive benefits in one form oranother: payments, special bonuses,irrevocable credits for education, housingconstruction, guaranteed and high pensionbenefits and other «social packages».Recently, this idea has been in the air. In theinfancy of Turkmen independence, Niyazovpromised a car and a calf for each family and alifestyle «like in Emirates» to all people. Later,he decided to change his mind. His successorschose not to take such a risk and started doinga snow-job on the country’s citizens already at167

Business in the «Renaissance époque» (16 most cases conflict with each other, you willJune 2009) have to pay «express charges». Otherwise,Recently a friend of mine, who resides outside you will be simply tortured until you areof Turkmenistan, was interested if «it is exhausted. As a result, you will either give uppossible to start a business in Turkmenistan». or will have to pay the required sum.«Sure!», I answered but this set me thinking. It should be admitted that these problems areWhat is the situation with regard to small and routine and they are true not only formiddle-scale businesses under the new manufacturers; in the manufacturingPresident? What problems do they have? I processes they are simply particularly acutedecided to ask around my friends about their and the «rates» are especially high.business to learn about «the tricks of theEast». So, once you have passed the «33 circles of hell» and received the permission for yourAbove all, one needs to decide on the area of business, you are still not able to work freely.entrepreneurship, as most of the economic There are guaranteed monthly visits fromsectors either totally belong to the state or to firemen, sanitary services and othersthose «particularly close» to the authorities. (provided you are not «very privileged»). Seldom, but at least 2-3 times per year, youAnd while the first case in fact guarantees that will be visited by the tax officers. Once in 2-3you will not be about to run this business, so months you will be called from the khyakimlikyou even don`t need to try, the latter, even by and asked to «donate» money for the city’slooking quite legal, may cause a bunch of fund and promised «hardships» if no money istroubles. donated. However, all these problems appear very insignificant in comparison to thoseBelow is a real life example. An entrepreneur created when you receive a visit from lawbrought some food products for sale. enforcement officers, particularly those fromEveryone knows that these have expiry dates. the Ministry of National Security (MNS). TheHowever, he ran into problems at the rates will immediately raise proportionately tocustoms: using various pretexts, the customs the «rank» of the visitor. They can come forofficers did not allow him to import the goods. different reasons: you sold the goods to theWhen the expiry date passed (the products «wrong customer», worked with the «wrongwere perishable), they were all thrown away. supplier», or simply «a competitor hasAs was discovered later, a competitor, who ordered an investigation». You will be plaguedimported the same products, was a relative of by insomnia and nervous attacks. You willone of the prime-ministers. As a result, the certainly be able to buy these officers off butbusinessman lost all his money. only if you haven’t stepped on the toes of someone who has a «higher» ranking; but inWhen selecting the type of business, one this case what business and profits can we talkneeds to take into account that the prices for about?so-called «socially significant» goods are fixedby the state, thus it would be incredibly hard To be fair, it should be noted that things areto compete with state enterprises, which even worse in the state enterprises.supply the same goods. Inspections occur more frequently, visits of the MNS and the Prosecutor’s Office areIf you choose to manufacture, you are most performed almost on a regular basis due tolikely to pass «thirty three circles of hell» in the fact that the enterprise belongs to thethe number of offices. And at all stages the state. The ministries are simply taking awayofficials will ask for «presents». However, the money for their own needs (do you rememberpotential entrepreneurs have very little choice the elite houses being built? Most of themand even if you do everything to comply with were constructed from the money of thethe «spirit and letter of the law», which in168

ministries). The heads of the state enterprisesare rotated very frequently and often due totheir imprisonment. This situation does notcontribute to make the state enterprisesattractive for educated people, who are readyto head them. But even if they would like to doso, almost all «seats» in any enterprise arebeing sold or given «by pulling strings». Thus,the enterprises are often headed by people,who feel they need to «compensate» for theirposition. And this means a further worseningof the situation, which is already bad …That is basically all the information I receivedfrom talking to my friends. There is business inTurkmenistan; however, it can hardly be called«white» similarly to the entire corrupted statesystem. It is up to you to decide whether to runa business in this situation or not.169

RÉGIS GENTÉ The Turkmen gas problem for Russia remains the same. The past years, roughly speaking,Russia against orgy in the Caspian area! Gazprom sold 1/3 of its volumes to European(8 January 2013) market. This little 1/3 finally generated aboutRussian diplomats are sometimes using 2/3 of its incomes. We usually forget howstrange diplomatic expressions. On December important these two figures are, to1st, the Russian ambassador to Turkmenistan, understand the aggressive Russian attitudeAlexander Blokhin, warned that if some towards Ashgabat. To put it simply, EuropeanCaspian littoral States would ignore the market is where are laying the means of theopinion of the others, it will be “full orgy, and ambitions of Mr Putin. That’s why this rhetoricanother hotbed of tension.” This declaration is was frequently heard these last years, whenabout the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project. Brussels started to actively promote theHe made it few days before the CIS meeting of Nabucco project, as part of the Southernthe Heads of State, in Ashgabat. As usual, energy corridor, designed to carry 30when a Russian official is making such bcm/year to Central Europe after thestatements about this pipeline project, he Ukrainian gas wars after 2005.added that it has “virtually no effect on theenergy security of Europe. I think there is By the way, we should notice that nobody inmore politics than economics”The, he also Russia seemed to complain about theinvoked environmental worries and the construction of the huge gas pipeline betweenabsence of a status of the Caspian Sea agreed Turkmenistan and China. The Central Asia–by the five littoral States. China gas pipeline was inaugurated exactly three years ago. The pipe will carry at least 30This remark sounds as a threat. Who could bcm/year of Turkmen gas in the near future.destabilize the region? But Russia and Iran… Moscow seemed even happy to see such bigIt’s interesting to notice that a year ago, in volumes of gas going East … and not West. InNovember 2011, some Russian energy the same logic, on last December 1st,experts, reportedly funded by the Kremlin or ambassador Blokhin showed himself veryGazprom, already threatened quite directly supportive for the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Turkmenistan if it would dare to allow a gas Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipelinepipeline to be built under the Caspian Sea. I project. “The problem is extremelyremember how shocked was the RusEnergy complicated, complex, we are interested in aconsultant Mikhail Krutikhin at the time: stable, economically strong Afghanistan and“They had reached the point where they ready to assist. One of the measures is thesimply threaten Turkmenistan almost with an participation in the implementation of thearmed invasion from the Caspian Sea, if it construction of the TAPI. Turkmenistan alsosuddenly decides to build a trans-Caspian provides direct assistance to Afghanistan.pipeline to Azerbaijan“, he said in an Here we are allies”, he said.interview.170 We could expect that this tough rhetoric would go down. Nabucco is dead. Certainly, a little Nabucco could prolong the Trans- Anatolian gas pipeline (Tanap), to evacuate the BP consortium production of the 2nd phase of the Shah Deniz deposit, in Azerbaijan. But its capacity will be almost twice less than the “big Nabucco”, 16 bcm/year. Is it still too much? “As soon, as Putin became again President, this year, he started to use all his forces to play against Tanap. This is why he decided to start so quickly the construction of South Stream”,

think Ilham Shaban, an Azerbaijani energy On last Saturday, it was the “National Day ofexpert. Remembrance” (Hatyra güni) of Turkmenistan. That holy day is celebrated onWhy even a Russian opposition to such a small the day of the fall of the Goktepe fortress inpipeline? May be because it strengthen the 1881, on January 12th, when Turkmen tribesSouthern corridor, which could in the ten or were defeated by Russian Tsarist army.fifteen coming years finally be prolonged to President Berdimuhamedov attended funeralthe Eastern shore of the Caspian Sea. Some service in the Goktepe mosque, completed inhope that to start, Baku and Ashgabat will find 1995, by the French construction companyan agreement with Baku about the Serdar Bouygues, and named “Saparmyrat Haji(Turkmen name) / Kapaz (Azeri name) Mosque” after the first President performedoffshore Caspian deposit. As it is located at the Hajj pilgrimage in 1992. Turkmen TVthe middle of the Sea, it is seen as an showed President Berdimuhamedov knelt inopportunity by some Trans-Caspian the huge mosque, with his “chapka” (Russiansupporters to lay a first pipe without having to fur hat) screwed on his head. Later, camerasask for some Moscow permission. But, “it followed him at the memorial meal, to whichdoesn’t go ahead because Baku wants first to hundreds of Turkmens participated, inbe sure that it is its gas that will fill the existing traditional costume or dress.gas pipeline, in the Caucasus. But the problemis also that Kapaz if, geologically, the tale of “In Turkmenistan, the National Day ofthe Azeri deposit. To develop it with Remembrance was celebrated, national flagsTurkmens, is taking the risk to pump into Azeri were lowered in all the towns and villages ofdeposit”, told us a Western Senior staff of an the country, funeral service were held in theoil service company, based in Baku. mosques in memory of the defenders of the Goktepe fortress, whose heroism became theAs we can see, Ashgabat is probably not at the embodiment of true patriotism and higheve to sell its gas to the West. Since 2007, courage”, reported turkemistan.ru, one of thewhen Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov became official web site of the Central Asiathe President, Turkmenistan endlessly repeats dictatorship. As under Niyazov, the currentthat everyone is welcome to buy our gas at President glorified the national heroes whoour border. What does it mean? When sacrificed their lives for the freedom andTurkmen officials are saying this to Europeans, independence of the Motherland.it means “you can take it at the Eastern shoreof the Caspian Sea.” Well, basically it means… Berdimuhamedov seems to continue to followdeal yourself with Russians; find a deal with Niyazov on the meaning given to the battle. Itthem through which they won’t be angry at was a question, among observers of theus, we’re too weak to take the risk to irritate Central Asian dictatorship politics, if thethe Kremlin. current President would not lesser the nationalism in favour of the tribalism, forThe Goktepe battle commemoration goes these 2013 celebrations. Berdimuhamedov,beyond nationalism (17 January 2013) who was born Babarap village in the Goktepe region, “has entrenched a new form of171 neopatrimonialism into the national Turkmen system by handing out several high-ranking key positions to family relatives or kinsmen from his hometown. (…) There is an unmistakably steady rise in the number of cabinet ministers from Ahal velayat”, wrote Nicholas Kunysz, in his article “From sultanism to neopatrimonialism? Regionalism within Turkmenistan” (Central Asian Survey, 31:1, 1- 16). Finally, he didn’t and asked these

celebrations to be “nationalists”, as under his ethnologist living in exile in Norway thatpredecessor. “falsification takes place only in the sense that the defenders did not think of the nation, they“The battle of Goktepe was a turning point in were resisting thinking about their localthe Turkmen history as in the Russian interests, about their independence, to not becolonization of Central Asia. Goktepe was a directly under the Russian rule. They agreedtrauma both for Turkmens, as they lost 6.000 only to indirect control.” “Niyazov was ahorsemen and 8.000 women and children nationalist and not the man of a clan. His wifeafter 23 days of fight, and for Russians, as this was half-Russian half-Jewish, and he was anis the place where they were defeated for the orphan”, reminds Kadyrov.first and only time in their conquest of CentralAsia”, explains Dr. Sebastien Peyrouse, In 1999, for example, official articles in theResearch Professor at the Institute for Turkmen press asserted that “all theEuropean, Russian and Eurasian Studies Turkmens from Mary, Lebap, Dashkhovuz,(IERES), at the G. Washington University. Balkan, and Ahal [the five main Turkmen tribalSaparmurat Niyazov even didn’t wait for his regions, whose guls, designs used in producingcountry to be independent to sign a Decree, carpets, are represented on the national flag]on December 8th 1990, to establish January joined the battle against the invaders.” “In12th as the national Memorial Day and the 1985, Gorbatchev chose Niyazov as Firstsymbol of the Turkmen resistance to Russian Secretary of the Communist Party of thecolonialism. Immediately, the battle, a “major Turkmen SSR because he was an orphan, lesshistoric trauma” for Turkmenistan according clan linked than others. Somehow,to Rukhnama, the so-called “spiritual Gorbatchev proved to be right, even if finallyguidebook” written by Niyazov, became “a the Goktepe battle became after 1990 also acorner stone of the national mythology and tacit way to legitimate the Ahal-Tekke tribe,the anti-Soviet and anti-Russian rhetoric of the Niyazov’s one, as the ruling group of thenew Turkmenistan”, observes Mr Peyrouse. country”, told us the French Central Asia specialist Catherine Poujol.In his 2002 article “Between the state andcultural zones: nation building in Ahal-Teke played indeed a key role during theTurkmenistan”, Ahmet Kuru says that “after Goktepe battle, which happened on their1991, Turkmen history writing has focused on territory, accusing the Southern Tekke, fromthree issues: changing the Soviet paradigm, the Mary region, and the Yumud tribe, fromemphasizing unique Turkmen national history the West, to not defend their territory or evenrather than shared Turkic history and ask the Russian to come. This supposedmaintaining national solidarity by uniting the legitimacy, which is coming after the Turkmenhistory of tribes and regions. (…) Turkmen ethnic nationalism and legitimacy, ishistory (…) emphasizes historical events like strengthening since Berdimuhamedov becamethe Goktepe War as a part of common President, after Niyazov’s death in Decembernational history, while omitting the clashes 2006.between tribes.” The new narrative ignoresthe Russian and soviet past, and considers this “However, this kind of permitted falsification,past as a break in a grandiose history which on a moral point of view, shouldn’t mean thatstarted again under Niyazov, the new hero all Turkmen would now have to serve Ahalleading his people towards the “Golden age”. people for their courage in 1881. Today, noBerdimuhamedov didn’t change the narrative, one Turkmen is waiving his local ethnicbut just introduce himself as the one leading identity. Each one feels that he is a cleanerto the “great Renaissance”, and not to the Turkmen than members of the other tribes.“Golden age”… So, this falsification, promoting ahal, is creating dissatisfaction among non-ahalThe re-writing of history lays also in the fact, Turkmen”, explains Mr Kadyrov. Our sourcesas explained us Shokhrat Kadyrov, a Turkmen in Turkmenistan confirm this discontent,172

which is growing. One source says that Turkmenistan mainly supports its ethnic kin in“Berdimuhamedov’s father, who is a very Afghanistan, which comprises around 3% ofTekke chauvinist, has a great influence on the the 23 million Afghans and mostly live next toPresident.” “Somebody as Viktor Khramov *a the 750 km-long Turkmen-Afghan border.Jew from Turkmenistan], who the chief of the “That’s a weak point of the TurkmenPresident’s administration and was already involvement in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, weNiyazov’s grey Cardinal, is trying to contain have to say that Ashgabat wants truly toBerdimuhamedov’s father’s influence and is contribute to stabilize the State of Afghanistanadvocating for a more balanced policy after 2014”, explains a European diplomat inbetween the Turkmen tribes”, he added. Brussels. The signature in Ashgabat, on MarchThese contradictory influences exerted on the 20th, by the Afghan, Turkmen and Tadjikcurrent President are probably what made this Heads of States of a Memorandum oflast January 12th “Day of Remembrance” Understanding “for the establishment of railofficially a “national day”… and implicitly transport infrastructure” their countries is aanother “Tekke day.” further sign of Ashgabat’s willingness to support its neighbour.Afghanistan withdrawal 1/3: Ashgabatquiet but active (25 March 2013) Everyone in Central Asia understands that theThis year, to celebrate the Nowruz new year coalition withdrawal from Afghanistan, asfestival, Turkmenistan offered humanitarian progressive it will be, could be the beginningaid to Afghanistan in the form of cargo of an insecure future. The risk is aggravated bydelivered to child care centres in nearby the fact that 2014 is also a presidentialnorthern afghan provinces. This is merely the election year in Afghanistan. Constitutionally,last gesture of support the country has given Hamid Karzai will have to step down. Afterits Southern neighbour. Its largesse includes that, “the Taliban will surely control the entire325 million kilowatts a year of electricity south of the country and part of the centre. Insupplied at a preferential rate, medical and Kabul, there will be probably a coalitioneducational aid, the renovation of irrigation government, with Taliban and Pashtun frominfrastructure, and scholarships for ethnic the current establishment. As for NorthernTurkmen students. “The Turkmen authorities Afghanistan, the process of autonomization ofdon’t express their concerns, but there are no the ethnic groups is already happening. Theredoubts that they somehow worry. The mid- won’t be stability in the North”, argues Prof.March bloody skirmish at the Uzbekistan- Alexander Knyazev, a Senior Fellow at theAfghanistan border reminds everyone how Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russiantense the situation is”, says a Western Academy of Sciences.diplomat in Ashgabat. Turkmenistan is not as exposed to the Afghan173 danger as Uzbekistan or Tajikistan are. Its “perpetual neutrality” policy is helping Ashgabat to maneuver. But, beyond “neutrality”, Turkmenistan might continue its 1990s-ear policy, when its strategic priority was the building of a Trans-Afghan gas pipeline with an American energy company, Unocal, as operator of the project. Turkmenistan “was actively cooperating with the Taliban and allowed the supply through its territory of fuel, ammunition and military equipment to the Taliban. I think that the current Turkmen leadership will continue this practice”, explains Pr Knyazev. This year, Ashgabat proposed, in vain so far, to host a

conference, under the UN auspices, to explore weaknesses and missing links in the ‘New Silk Road’ concept as it is currently beingways for peace and reconciliation with all the promoted. It is more a vision – or wishful thinking – than a clear and realistic strategy”,main Afghan political actors, Taliban included. declared Michaela Prokop, a political economist, during a discussion organized atTurkmen President Gurbanguly the Central Asia Program at George Washington University last June. “No specificBerdimuhamedov is apparently more or less budget has been allocated, nor have any commitments been made in terms ofquiet. “But, in the meantime, he knows how diplomatic personnel”, added the authors of the “The Afghanistan-Central Asiauncertain the internal Afghan political relationship: What role for the EU?”, a working paper published as part of thesituation is and how difficult it will be for the EUCAM-Security and Development project.former Soviet republics of Central Asia to The weaknesses of the strategy and measures adopted by the US and its Allies to address thecooperate”, underlines Georgiy Voloshin, an post 2014 situation in Afghanistan is one of the main reasons Turkmenistan is taking suchanalyst at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute an active part in current initiatives. It is also suited to the policy of normalizing relations& Silk Road Studies Program of the John with all the country’s neighbors President Berdimuhamedov launched when he came toHopkins University. Voloshin stresses the power, in 2007. We should not underestimate the importance of Ashgabat’s bet on Afghanextreme importance that Turkmenistan places peace: a Southern route through Afghan territory is its only hope of diversifying its gason the TAPI (Turkmenistan – Afghanistan – exports.Pakistan – India) gas pipeline. The project is Afghanistan withdrawal 2/3: A risky geopolitical vacuum (1 April 2013)seen by Ashgabat as the key to diversify its gas With the progressive withdrawal of the 102,000 NATO troops, West is not only leavingexports as the country aims to more than Afghanistan military. It is also a geopolitical withdrawal… that will impact deeplytriple production by 2030. “This pipeline is Turkmenistan’s place in the region. And neither Russia nor China seem to be ready tofeasible only if Afghanistan remains relatively take the responsibility for the region’s futurestable. It is why Ashgabat is looking for The NATO withdrawal will leave Turkmenistan in a vulnerable position with neither Russiamultilateral solutions”, says Voloshin. nor China likely to offer security guarantees, analysts say. Even the Western political andTurkmenistan is thus active in the various economic involvement in the region seems tointernational fora that are designed or vanish. It will likely create “a new geopoliticalmobilized to help Afghanistan after 2014. vacuum in Central Asia”, says GeorgiyWhether it be the Regional Environmental Voloshin, an analyst at the Central Asia-Centre for Central Asia (CAREC), the Central Caucasus Institute and Silk Road StudiesAsia Counternarcotics Initiative (CACI), the Program at John Hopkins University.Regional Economic Cooperation Conferenceson Afghanistan (RECCA) – which aims tobolster the dialogue process by developingConfidence Building Measures (CBMs)- or theBorder Management Program in Central Asia(BOMCA), the regional water dialogueestablished by the EU etc. “Turkmenistan tookan active part to some projects, taking eventhe lead in the CBMs dedicated toinfrastructures. For the next Ministerialmeeting in Almaty, on April 26th, in the frameof what we call the Istanbul Process,Turkmens could announce some very concretemeasures and initiatives”, says the Europeandiplomat we talked to.On its side, in 2011, Washington launched the“New Silk Road” which the United States seesas a major contribution to the post-2014period in Afghanistan. The core of thatstrategy is to direct international investmentsto favor regional trade and stimulateeconomic growth. “There are many174

For Voloshin, that vacuum is “comparable and militarily,” says Voloshin. Thus,with the one of the early 1990’s when no big Turkmenistan won’t be able to start to play apower, whether it is the weakened Russia, the regional role after 2014. The best it can do inhesitating China or United States before their this period of geopolitical restructuration is toinvolvement in the AfPak, was considering protect itself from instability and try toitself as responsible for the region’s future.” continue to open its strategic space, he says.“Indeed,” adds Vladimir Paramonov, directorof the Central Eurasia Project, in Tashkent, Alexander Knyazev, a Senior Fellow at the“we’re entering a time of great uncertainty, as Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russianthe U.S., Russia and China don’t have clear Academy of Sciences, says that he doubts “theplans” for the post-2014 situation in Central Turkmen leadership has the ability to makeAsia. any deal. Their incompetence and irresponsibility does not allow them to findThis vacuum could badly affect Turkmenistan, optimal ways of cooperation. In that context,despite its “perpetual neutrality.” The entire according to my information, Russianregion could face risks of a violent spillover leadership is not even considering thefrom Afghanistan, possibly via its minorities possibility to help Turkmenistan for itssettled in the north of the country, security.” Behind “incompetence anddestabilization by religious extremists groups irresponsibility” lays the Ashgabat deepor an increase in the drug trade through its distrust towards Moscow. Then, it is possibleterritory. The great powers will probably need that Russia will partially retract from countriessome time to react, both to the threats and to like Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which arethe global geostrategic readjustment of the reluctant to cooperate with it, and count morewhole region. instead on the regional structures like the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).To face the security challenges coming fromAfghanistan, regional cooperation will be a For many observers of the regionalnecessity for Turkmenistan. Nobody should geopolitics, Beijing could be the winner afterexpect benevolent support from the great 2014. “China wants to be active in Afghanistanpowers: “Each one will play its own and Central Asia to secure its Westerngeopolitical game, that’s why the Central Asia backyard,” says Thierry Kellner, a specialist ofcountries should strengthen the regional unity the Chinese relations with Central Asia at theand coordination, in the security field first,” Université Libre de Bruxelles (Brussels).says Paramonov. But the relations among “That’s probably why President Xi JinpingCentral Asian states are so difficult that it is made his first trip abroad as the country’sunlikely to record any significant progress at leader in Moscow. Beijing knows that thethat level. “Each government of the region will most important geopolitical battle, with thetry to prevent the threats alone,” says U.S., already started in the South EasternVoloshin. “But they risk increasing instability Asia”, It is very unlikely that China will directlyand worsening their economic situation take the lead on the security issues in Centralbecause they will probably close their borders Asia.as usual, fall back on themselves and hardentheir authoritarianism,” he adds. “In the security field, Beijing leaves the leadership to Russians. China is more active inMany observers of the region are hailing the economical field, especially by improvingAshgabat’s proactive diplomacy with the the regional and national infrastructures or byvarious internationally sponsored regional creating new ones”, argues Mr Kellner. Thatorganizations assigned to deal with the post- plays a potentially very important role for2014 situation in Afghanistan. But even if the Turkmenistan’s future. Beijing is not only awill is here, the means may not suffice. client for Turkmen gas; it could be a partner to“Turkmenistan lacks human resources – open the space of the former Soviet republic.demographically, economically, diplomatically Various studies have shown that Central Asia’s175

territorial isolation curbs its growth by more Interview with Nazif M. Shahrani, professor ofthan one per cent a year. China already helped Anthropology at the Indiana Universityto de-isolate the region and has become itsfirst trade partner. The Afghan Turkmens, around 3% of the 23 million Afghan people, are worrying about theBeijing’s very recent takeover of the US/NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. Their relations with Taliban have been very difficultmanagement of Pakistan’s Gwadar port could in the past fifteen years and they fear their revenge after 2014. Most of these 700,000bring Central Asia and Turkmenistan more Turkmens (or Turcomans) is living at the border of the post-Soviet republic ofpossibilities to break this isolation. Thus, Turkmenistan. Some Turkic-speaking peoples, including Turkmen took refuge in NorthernBeijing’s role in the Afghanistan stabilization is Afghanistan in the 1920s and 1930s to escape the Bolsheviks’ suppression of the basmachia key issue for Ashgabat, not only for the revolt in Central Asia.diversification of its gas exports, but also for Question: In the recent past, Afghan Turkmens fought against the Taliban, siding with otherits goods’ imports and exports. “For that, ethnic minorities from the Northern and Central Afghanistan such as the Uzbeks, theTurkmenistan may also try to use the Tajiks and the Hazaras. Can you explain to us why they took this position?Chabahar port in Iran, developed by India”, NS: I would say that it was not the Turkmenssays Kellner. The construction of the who opposed the Taliban, but the Taliban who attacked the Turkmen in order to re-conquerKazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway, Northern parts of the country and impose their rule and extremist interpretation ofdesigned to become the most important part Islam. This clear aggression was seen by the Turkmens, the Uzbeks, the Tajiks etc., whoof the North-South international transport peacefully managed their own region, as very unfair. Because, during the anti-Communistcorridor and expected to open by next jihad everybody had fought against the Soviet invaders, against their common enemy. Atsummer, could prove to be crucial for that time, nobody offered to help the Turkmen from the other regions ofTurkmenistan’s future. Here are the first Afghanistan. They fought to free their own territory. Then somebody [Taliban] is comingmoves of the upcoming geostrategic and says we will rule over you, and tell you how to be Muslim etc.readjustment in Central Asia, which could help Question: Turkmens, Uzbeks, Tajiks, Hazaras…to fill the post 2014 vacuum. they are really standing together?Turkmen government has not been very NS: Yes, all the non-Pashtu people are obligedsupportive towards Turkmens in to stand together to defend their rights at theAfghanistan - Afghanistan withdrawal moment and in the future, in Northern and3/3 (25 April 2013) Central Afghanistan. Each of these ethnic“Turkmen government has not been very communities certainly have differentsupportive towards Turkmens in Afghanistan” interests, slightly different vision for the176 country, different position within the larger

society. But when they are under the pressure As a result much land and water were takenof the Taliban, they are united. The political from the local peoples and given to theparty organizations such te Hizbe Wahdat of resettled Pashtun tribesmen from the south.the Hazara shi’a of central region, theJunbushi Milli Islami Afghanistan of General These policies changed the demographicRashid Dustom of the Uzbeks and Turkmen in composition of the north while also creatingnorthern areas and the Jama’ati Islami- considerable interethnic tensions between theShuraye Nazar of the Tajiks had formed the so non-Pashtun residents and the relocatedcalled Northern Alliance to defend their Pashtuns in the north. These tensions grewcommunities against the Taliban during the worse during the Taliban wars of re-conquest1996-2001. They also partnered with during the 1990s. It is the possibilities of theAmerican and international coalition forces to return of Taliban to power after the US troopdrive the Taliban from power in 2001. withdrawal in 2014 that is causing considerable anxiety now both among theQuestion: You spoke about differences Turkmen and other non-Pashtun groups inbetween Turkmens, Uzbeks, Tajiks, etc. Which northern Afghanistan. Turkmens are akind of differences? relatively small group compared to others, so they have received and asked for much lessNS: Yes, of course they are a bit different from share of power than others. Usually, they sideeach other. Demographically for example, with Uzbeks, because they all speak Turkicthese groups don’t have the same weight. language and are both Moslem Sunnis. TheTurkmens represents 3% of the whole Afghan Hazaras for example are Shi’a, they are livingpopulation, but Tajiks are estimated around also in different regions, but more of them in27%, Hazaras and Uzbeks 9% each. However, the Center of the country.since no census has ever has been allowed totake place no one knows the exact ethnic Question: You don’t speak about the Pashtun.composition or the accurate numbers of But if all the Taliban are Pashtu, all PashtunAfghanistan’s population. As a result, claims are not Taliban and many of them oppose theregarding the size and proportion of ethnic Taliban Does it mean that they are siding withcommunities in Afghanistan is also politicized the Turkmens, the Uzbeks etc.?as reflected in the inflated claims by virtuallyall ethnic groups about their demographic size NS: Indeed, some Pasthun disagree within the country. Undoubtedly, the size of the Taliban’s interpretation of Islam. But, when itparticular group plays a role in the national comes to politics, to rule the over the country,and regional politics. Thus, the way one or the there are no big difference among them. Iothers were treated in the history by the mean, Pashtun, whether part of the Talibanruling dynasties affects their situation today as movement or not, want the Pashtun to rulewell as how they look at what’s going in and to dominate the country. The repeatedAfghanistan today. reference to the Taliban insurgents by President Karzai, as “our disgruntled brothers”For example, the small part of Turkmen and appealing to them to join his governmentpopulation was purposefully was kept within is an important indication of the sharedthe boundaries of the buffer state of modern sentiments among the Pashtun. Also theirAfghanistan when created by the tsarist common cause to systematically marginalizeRussian and British-Indiana empires towards and force members of the other ethnic groupsthe end of nineteenth century. Then Pashtu from power in Post-Taliban Afghanistan slowlyruler’s in Kabul were not trusting the Turkmen but successfully during the past twelve years isand Uzbek as well Tajik peoples who inhabited another clear evidence of Pashtun unity intheir northern domain, so decided to relocate search of the political domination of all othermany of their own trusted Pashtun tribesmen groups, including the Turkmen.amidst the Turkmen and Uzbeks, especiallyclose to the Russian and later Soviet frontiers.177

Question: How are Turkmens looking at the if they would be targeted by Taliban, we canpost-2014 situation? expect that Ashgabat would be listened by them if Ashgabat ask to spare Afghan TurkmenNS: Everybody in Afghanistan, especially in the lives. But, the past showed that TurkmenNorthern provinces, in Herat, in Badakhshan, government has not been very supportiveand in Bamian at the center expect that the towards Turkmens in Afghanistan. ForWestern coalition troops withdrawal might example, Ashgabat didn’t help when somelead to a civil war again. That’s the reality; the wanted to take refuge in Turkmenistan duringthreat of a civil war is very high. And as usual, the vicious Taliban attack of the late 1990s. Inexternal forces, I mean regional players, 2006 for example, Turkmen authoritieswhether it is Pakistan, Gulf States, Iran, India, complicated visa procedures, imposed tighterChina, Russia, Central Asia Republics may be, regulation and frequently arrested people atall could interfere again in another bloody the Turkmen-Afghan border. Cross borderproxy war in post 2014 Afghanistan. So, as the trade and farming became very difficult to do.others in Northern Afghanistan, Turkmensworry a lot. People are not leaving the On the other hand, more recently there havecountry, the leaders of their community are been some reports from Kabul thatworking to keep or strengthen the ties Turkmenistan is willing to explore anespecially with the Uzbeks. Certainly some alternative trade route through Turkmenistanhave joined the Karzai government, for and the Caspian Sea to Russia and Europe.example, as Noor Mohammad Qarqeen, whowas born in the Jowzjan Province. He served Second-class citizens (17 June 2013)as the Director of the electoral campaign of For women, there are two main reasons whyHamid Karzai and then was his minister of life is difficult in Turkmenistan. One is becauseEducation between 2004 and 2006. But, most the republic is a dictatorship and doesn’t careof the Turkmens are mostly supporting Abdul so much about its people. The second isRashid Dostum, the leader of Afghanistan’s because they are women… as in most of theUzbek community, and his political party country in the world, unfortunately. “UnderJumbish (Junbish-e Milli-yi Islami-yi the same restrictions as men, womenAfghanistan, the National Islamic Movement additionally face patriarchal traditions,of Afghanistan). Turkmens need this solidarity inadequate legislation regarding violencewith Uzbeks also because they’re not against women and domestic violence, andprotected by the Ashgabat, by the Turkmen dismal health conditions”, says The Norwegiangovernment. Helsinki Committee (NHC) in its new report, “Women: Turkmenistan’s second-classQuestion: How do you assess the Turkmen citizens. Equal only to injustice and vulnerablegovernment policy towards Afghan Turkmens? to arbitrariness.”NS: Basically, Ashgabat don’t seem to care One of the good reasons to read the 40 pagesmuch about Turkmens in Afghanistan. There report is that it is an on-the-ground research.are several Afghan Turkmen refugee camps As explain the authors, the “lack of reliablestill in Pakistan and may be in Iran from the statistics and the authorities’ systematicdecades of wars, but none in Turkmenistan as repressive actions towards any activity in civilfar as I am aware. Ashgabat talks to Kabul, to society complicate attempts to monitor,the Afghan government regardless of who evaluate or address the situation from within,runs it. Today as yesterday, when Niyazov was to a much greater extent than in neighbouringPresident, Turkmenistan was talking to every countries.” But with a strong network “ofpolitical force, especially the Taliban because Turkmen citizens who are concerned with theAshgabat is dreaming about laying a gas situation in the country”, NHC says itpipeline to reach the enormous market of the interviewed “more than 10 000 women mostlyIndian subcontinent. On one side, that’s good based in the capital Ashgabat, but also in thefor Turkmen minority in Afghanistan, because regions.”178

The report recalls many times also how everything that a future house wife needs tonumerous are the Turkmen “women *who+ are know… The boys have to plant trees and learnthe main bread winners for themselves, their carpentry and other work skills.”children and their families.” The social andeconomical context is indeed heavy: high That’s him also who fix the social stereotypesunemployment rate, many men drug and contribute heavily to make the Turkmenaddicted, corruption, in the education or women second-class citizens. NHC recalls alsohealthcare sectors for example, etc. “For me, the time of the 2012 presidential elections,the most important information described by when “the president appeared with his familythis report is the amount of work, consisting only of males. There was not oneexpectations and pressure put on women single woman present – no mother, no wife,from so many sides – the state, the family, the no daughter-in-law. An impression was madesociety, the spouse, poverty”, says Lene that there was no place for the women next toWetteland, NHC Central Asia advisor. the men at the polling station.” There is just an organization dealing with women’sCertainly, “Turkmen legislation does not problems, Women’s Union of Turkmenistan.discriminate women. On the contrary, new But it has no independence from thelegal provisions are mostly aimed at the Government: “At the CEDAW hearing inelimination of discrimination of women in all Geneva in October 2012, the [Turkmen]fields of life and overall protection according delegation (…) was unable to explain why theto CEDAW, and include various measures head of the Women’s Union was present inappearing to guarantee liability for any Geneva as a member of the official delegationviolation of these rights. These provisions are if she was representing an NGO”, reveals therepeated in several laws including the report.Constitution.” But the problem is that “thelaws that defend women’s rights on paper No one should be surprised then, if forcreate a false façade of good intentions example the various institutions of thetowards women freedoms and equality in country repeat the same stereotypes than thesociety”, says the report. Head of State. “On 8 March 2013, the Makhtumkuli Youth Association organized aAfter reading these 40 pages, we had the “Student Beauty” contest for female studentsfeeling that traditionalism is not something in universities. In their coverage, the Statecoming only from the bottom of the society. News Agency praised the “Culinary abilities of“The government underlines and promotes competitors, who were able to show theirtraditional family values to keep away women, skills in art of laying of the festive table withmen, youth, from developing organizations appetizing foods”, says the report.and prevent them to campaign for betterconditions. Thus, they are always reminded Another evidence of the political use of thethey should respect authorities in the family traditionalism is the question of women’sand in the society, and refrain from asking dress. That’s “a subject of high level statecritical questions”, asserts Lene Wetteland. politics”, asserts NHC. Indeed, women, at work or during public celebrations and holyTraditionnalism is also coming from the top, days, and girls at school are obliged to wearcertainly with the aim to use it as a tool to national dress, even if they are not ethniccontrol the society. Unless that Turkmen Turkmen, with embroidery on the chest, theirPresident, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, hair shall be gathered in two plaits andis not more progressive and educated than a covered by a skull-cap named takhya. And,peasant living in a remote place in the now, the trend is to encourage to wear theseKarakum desert. The author of the report national clothes even in private: “The firstrecall for example Mr Berdymukhammedov as pages of the official newspapers have alsosaying: “Girls need to learn the basics of printed guidelines by the President for moresewing, carpet weaving, cooking; in short, private occasions. In a recent statement, he179

stated that it is more appropriate for young The June 26th decision was the final blow tobrides-to-be to wear national dresses at their Nabucco, a 31 bcm/year capacity projectwedding rather than the white European initiated in 2002 and strongly supported bydresses that have become so popular lately.” Brussels and some European States after the Russian – Ukrainian “gas wars” of 2006 andThis political environment contributes to 2009, in order to lower the EU’s dependencyweaken women’s situation in the country. on Russian gas.Whether we speak about how it comesthrough unequal education between girls and “The Nabucco project is over for us”, admitsboys, the passivity of police when it has to Gerhard Roiss, CEO of Austria’s OMV, theprotect a women victim of domestic violence, Nabucco consortium’s leader. In reality,the discrimination with employment, women Nabucco was already dead after 2011, whenbeing not effectively protected by the law. For the Shah Deniz consortium officially rejectedexample, few women are using their right to the “big” Nabucco, by announcing itsuse the maternity leave. “First, they will not preference for a project adapted to its needs,have any means to support their family during of just 10 bcm/y. The tube’s capacity wouldthe leave. Second, they understand that it is eventually increase to 23 bcm/y, withnot very likely that their work place will additional compressor capacity, if additionalremain if they return after three years’ child volumes could be produced along with greatercare leave”, explains the authors of the report. demand from South or Central Europe.Life after Nabucco (29 July 2013) Ultimately, if there is demand in CentralIndustrial and commercial rationality won the Europe after 2020, then “Nabucco West”day. Indeed, what Brussels wanted, and what could still be implemented. Thus the Junethe oil and gas companies wanted, was not decision is in some ways less important thanthe same thing. After all, aren’t the firms the the 2011-2012 one, when the Consortiumones who are paying? announced its alternative plans, if we look at it from the Turkmenistan perspective.The Shah Deniz consortium, operated by BP(with a 25.5% stake1), made public its final “We believe in the Turkmen capacities, but wechoice on June 26th about the gas pipeline also understand that making a decision aboutthrough which it will export its production a Trans-Caspian gas pipeline would have takenfrom the offshore Azerbaijani field. Between a long time. And we had to take a quickNabucco-West, the project designed to carry decision about how to export the upcomingAzerbaijani gas from Turkey to the Central Shah Deniz 2 production”, explained a seniorEuropean Gas Hub in Austria, and TAP (the member of Total, the French group memberGreece-Albania-Italy Trans-Adriatic Pipeline of the consortium, a few months ago.project), BP and its partners chose TAP. The geopolitical situation makes any decision180 about building a pipeline in the Caspian Sea almost impossible. Since the fall of the USSR in 1991, the five coastal States have failed to reach agreement on the Sea’s status. Russia especially uses its veto to prevent the Central Asian hydrocarbon producers from competing with her on the Western markets. Ilham Shaban, Director of the Azerbaijan Centre for Oil Studies, in Baku, downplayed the impact of the June 26th decision: “The Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, as well as the other tubes going towards the West within

the European Union-planned Southern Gas thinking about which route to chose to exportCorridor have never been considered from a Shah Deniz 2 production, “nobody consideredcommercial point of view. So, I’m not sure a future pipeline that would upload naturalthat the Shah Deniz Consortium’s decision will gas from the right bank of the Caspian Sea.”affect deeply the Turkmen political decision Rovnag Abdullayev, the president ofmakers.” Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR), confirmed this after the June 26th decision:Nevertheless, Nabucco was a driver and it is “We see the pipeline route toward Austria asvery likely that for the coming years, any plan a natural market for that gas. Theto export Turkmen gas through the Caspian development planning of both pipeline routesSea will be forgotten. And given this difficult [TAP and Nabucco-West] lays the foundationsituation, what options are there now for for future growth.”Turkmenistan? The Western route is nottotally dead, says Liana Jervalidze, an expert The future of Turkmen gas exports is lookingon Caucasian energy issues. “Turkmens can less shiny than had once been expected. Sinceview the selection of TAPI as a positive step, 2009, and the fall in EU demand, Russia buysbecause it doesn’t challenge Russia in its no more than 10 bcm/y from Turkmenistan.traditional market in Eastern Europe. Then, Unless the EU gas market recovers, “it willwhat can make a difference for them is the continue in the current manner”, says Mikhailcapacity of the pipeline from Azerbaijan to EU: Krutikhin, from RusEnergy. Nor does Iranwill Azerbaijan build TANAP [Trans-Anatolian represent a significant share of Turkmen gasgas pipeline] or maybe will consent to use SCP production: Ashgabat exported only 4 bcm[South Caucasus Pipeline] and the Botash last year, 52% less than in 2011. Ashgabatsystem [Turkish network] as BP continuously halted gas exports to its Southern neighboursuggests. The expansion of the SCP and the because Tehran has more than $1 billion ofBotash system is the most economic way to debts, owing to difficulties related to itsdeliver gas to EU but volumes only up to 24-30 banking system after the internationalbcm per annum. Will this be enough to community imposed new sanctions on theeventually accommodate at least 10 bcm of Islamic Republic, which refuses to addressTurkmen gas?” concerns about its nuclear program.Jervalidze points out that Turkey’s contract on Finally, China is getting a very favourablegas delivery with Shah Deniz phase 1 provides position in Turkmenistan. It commissioned infor a maximum of approximately 6.6 bcm/y 2009 the Turkmenistan–China gas pipeline,and will come to an end in 2022. But, she says, with a 40 bcm/y capacity. Currently, Beijing“it is expected that Turkey will resume the imports about 20 bcm/y of Turkmen gas. It iscontract beyond that date. If so, then after very difficult to understand what exactly theexpansion SCP shall have to accommodate commercial terms are that have been agreedthese 6.6 bcm plus 6 bcm from the phase 2, between Ashgabat and Beijing. One reputedand 10 bcm will go to EU. It makes already 22 US analyst [Jennifer Coolidge] was claiming inbcm. If SCP is expandable to 30 bcm/, then March 2012 that the price for Turkmen gas atthis capacity can be used for exports of gas the Uzbek border is between $140-190.produced from other Azerbaijani fields as Another expert [UK-based Simon Pirani, fromShah Deniz phase 3, deep water of the Azeri the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies] givesChiraz Guneshli, Absheron, Babek/Umid, etc. completely different figures. According to him,In this case, there will be no room for the gas price at the same border is $334 perTurkmen gas. Ashgabat can only hope that the 1000 cm.Consortium will build the new TANAPpipeline.” “If the US analyst is right, and if we do not forget a $10 bln Chinese loan, TurkmenistanBut Turkmen hopes shouldn’t be set too high. will show again a big interest for westernIlham Shaban stresses that in Baku, when direction of exports”, explains Liana Jervalidze.181

Whatever the price, with the Chinese now in a agreed to the purchase of 25 billion cubiccomfortable position to deal with the metres (bcm) of gas a year the agreement wasTurkmens, Ashgabat appears to be thinking of 40 bcm/y before. Thus, it should bring,more than ever before about the TAPI probably by the end of the decade, Turkmen(Turkmenistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan – gas exports to China up to 65 bcm of gasIndia) gas pipeline. But isn’t that a pipe annually. Last year, Turkmenistan shippeddream? 21.4 bcm to China, through the Central Asia– China gas pipeline, inaugurated in 2009.“From the standpoint of engineering Second, China promised to finance the secondconstruction, there are no major difficulties. stage of development at the Galkynysh gasBut what about the security issue. Afghanistan field, probably the world’s second-biggest gasis still a very unstable place. How to ensure field. Third is the construction of a new line ofthe safety of the pipeline? Who will take the the Turkmenistan – China pipeline. Anotherrisk to finance it? And to provide insurance for important point is the agreement to build a 30it? There are a lot of obscure questions about bcm/year processing complex.TAPI”, says Ilham Shaban. Experts underlined the fact that China is toChina takes a decisive advantage in finance the second stage of Galkynysh,Turkmenistan (27 September 2013) although there are no details, as aXi Jinping, the new Chinese President, made confirmation of the very long term nature ofan exceptionally long trip to Central Asia this China’s commitment in Turkmenistan. But, it ismonth, between 3rd and 13th of September. not only about energy cooperation. XiHe started his visit in Turkmenistan where he Jinping’s visit in Central Asia is “in manysecured new energy deals… and a prosperous respects “historical”, especially because hefuture for his country in the former Soviet proposed a new strategy to the region.republic Instead of sticking to the concept of a free trade area, he offered to develop a moreXi Jinping’s visit to Turkmenistan on elaborate “economic belt along the SilkSeptember 3rd might be remembered as a Road.”, says Konstantin Syroezhkin, Chiefbreaking point in the Sino-Turkmen history. Researcher of Kazakhstan Institute forSymbolically at least, but we know how Strategic Studies (KISI). Indeed, at asymbols are important in politics. During, his conference at the Nazarbayev University invisit, Xi Jinping and his Turkmen counterpart, Astana, Xi proposed to deepen and diversifyGurbanguly Berdimukhamedov, signed a joint Chinese cooperation with Central Asia. Itdeclaration lifting “bilateral relations to the remains to see if the idea will become reality.level of strategic partnership.” “That issignificant, because for Beijing it is not an Strategically, Beijing is improving its positionsempty paper. It endorses the engagement of in Central Asia and Turkmenistan. ForChina in the country. Today, its balance of example, the construction of a fourth pipelinetrade with Turkmenistan is about six times going via Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstangreater than the one between Turkmenistan will allow China to be less reliant onand Russia. It is striking to see how China Kazakhstan for transit. In the meantime, Chinadeepened its presence in the region since gives Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, who are sick2008”, observes Thierry Kellner, a specialist of of relying on Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan forChina – Central Asia relations at the Université gas, some new possibilities to purchase gaslibre de Bruxelles. and fill a bit more their budget. In this, Ashgabat is more connected to its neighboursBut the new status that China gained in thanks to China. Moreover, “We cannotAshgabat this month is also coming from exclude that China is closer to make evensigning deals in the energy sector. Three major more ambitious plans beyond the region,deals were concluded. First, China National namely, to take another important step inPetroleum Corp (CNPC) and TurkmenGas terms of the formation of transport and182

energy bridge with Iran”, thinks Vladimir TAPI, a pipe dream but … (11 DecemberParamonov, Director of the Project “Central 2013)Eurasia”, in Tashkent. Never say never. This is what energy experts usually advise when it comes to pipelineAre China’s increasing positions in Central Asia projects. This is especially true when it comesdetrimental to Russian positions? “Beijing is to the former Soviet Union. Everyonegoing ahead with a “more business than remembers how for example the Baku – Tbilisipolitics” approach. That’s help her to greatly – Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline became reality, inreduces the influence of Russia. However, the 2005, after years being considered nothingcoordination between Moscow and Beijing in more than a pipe dream. That’s why weCentral Asia is high. Overall, China fills mostly should be cautious when talking about thethe niches abandoned by Russia, after the TAPI (Turkmenistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan –collapse of the USSR”, says Paramonov. India) gas pipeline, even if today almost everyone dismisses it as a “ridiculous” project,Beijing is certainly satisfied about the new as it was described to us recently by a seniorstatus it has in Turkmenistan. But, what about player at a big international oil and gasAshgabat? It seems clear that Turkmenistan is company.becoming economically more dependent onChina. For the past two or three years, This 1,800 kilometres long pipe project has aAshgabat is full of rumours that Chinese long and eventful history. In 1995, as thecustomers try to renegotiate their import newly independent Central Asia republicsprices downwards. But Central Asia natural sought not to be dependent exclusively ongas is also crucial for China, especially Russia to export their hydrocarbons, a firstTurkmen gas. Turkmenistan is now China’s memorandum of understanding was signedlargest foreign supplier of natural gas, with between the governments of Turkmenistan51.4 percent of imports, according to data and Pakistan. Some foreign companies, first anpublished by the BP Statistical Review of Argentinian, the Bridas Corporation, then anWorld Energy. American, Unocal, decided to promote this trans-Afghanistan pipeline. The latter won. On“It should be noted that the energy factor has 21 October 1995, Unocal signed an agreementbecome even more important this year as with Saparmurat Niyazov, the then Turkmenenvironmental degradation in China has president, and created the Central Asia Gasreached an alarming level. Xi Jinping’s Pipeline consortium (CentGas). Even theadministration recognizes that it is a political, Taliban looked positively at the project, andsocial and economic issue to be addressed agreed to talk with the Americans.urgently. The legitimacy of the Party wasquestioned last year, with the Bo Xilai case, is But hopes were soon dashed, after Osama binhas to be consolidated. In this context, the Laden, the Taliban’s friend and mentor,improvement in air quality is a priority. Gas ordered the bombing of the Americansupplies therefore become even moreimportant as Beijing is trying to limit itsdependence on coal. So that the agreementsin Central Asia do not exclude others withRussia”, argues Michal Meidan, an analyst atEurasia Group.183

embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, on 7 to review down the tariffs of the Turkmen gasAugust 1998. The pipeline negotiations it purchases”, observes an energy expert whoimmediately halted. It was only from doesn’t want to be named. Currently, ChinaDecember 2002, after the overthrow of the still requires a lot of gas to sustain its growthTaliban following America’s post-9/11 and needs to slow down its coal consumption,invasion, that a new TAPI deal was signed by especially in power generation in line withthe leaders of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and anti-pollution policies. But as Russia doesn’tPakistan. But the project stalled because of buy more than 10 bcm a year of Turkmen gasthe insecurity in Afghanistan. Until today. now, and given the fact that Iran imports remain small, Ashgabat is dangerously relyingLast October, President Obama wrote a letter on China to export its production.to his Turkmen counterpart, GurbangulyBerdymukhamedov, to express his support for Finally, the most noticeable event of this 18thTAPI. It is unlikely that the letter really counts Ashgabat Oil & Gas Exhibition was thefor too much, but, following the advises of the signature of an agreement between the TAPIneo-conservator Central Asia specialist countries’ state gas firms and the AsianFrederick Starr, the Obama administration Development Bank (ADB). ADB will advisedecided to publicly support TAPI once more. them on the establishment of the TAPIWashington probably follows its old principle: pipeline company, undertake technical due“Happiness is multiple pipelines”. It might be diligence, and handle the bidding andalso a way to say that after 2014, US won’t selection of a commercial consortium leaderleave Afghanistan alone and has a strategy to build, own and operate the pipeline. Thatgoing beyond security, with in particular the signature was presented as important. But itillusion created by the “New silk road”, which still leaves many skeptical about the possibilityis a framework to promote trade in Central for TAPI to be built one day.Asia in order to help it to stabilize. The market exists, in Pakistan and India.Thus, TAPI was one of the topics that Turkmen “Energy security is important for India andofficials were eager to speak about during the therefore the interest in TAPI is genuine inlast Turkmenistan International Oil & Gas New Delhi. But it is not in India’s hands aloneExhibition (also known as OGT), which took to implement the project. Even the US whichplace in Ashgabat between November 19th professes backing the project is unable to doand 21st. This 18th OGT deceived many much to advance the project except offerattendees. Most of the world majors and the verbal encouragement”, says for examplebig services companies sulked at the event. Bhadrakumar Melkulangara, a former Indian“OGT 2013 was a post Nabucco OGT [Nabucco ambassador in the region and expert onwas a European gas pipeline project that was Central Asia geopolitics. Lynne Tracy, the USabandoned this year, with its prolongation to Deputy Assistant Secretary for South andTurkmenistan with a Trans Caspian pipeline]. Central Asia, told the OGT conference that, toThe West doesn’t expect anything soon from make TAPI a success, “private sectorthe Turkmens. That’s why also ConocoPhillips, participation is essential. What is missing is aStatoil, Maersk, Mubadala or OMV closed commercial champion, an IOC [Internationaltheir office in Ashgabat”, says a specialist from Oil Company]. Without IOC involvement thethe former Soviet area. project may not be financeable.”In other words, Turkmens put TAPI at the US companies Chevron and ExxonMobil havecenter of the discussions during OGT 2013 shown interest in the project despite the risks.between optimism (after Obama’s letter) and But they reportedly have set a condition topessimism (“post Nabucco” year). Moreover, consider taking on the job: getting access toAshgabat worries about its increasing Galkynysh or one of Turkmenistan’s other bigdependency on China for its gas exports. upstream projects that would supply a TAPI“Beijing is more and more in a position to ask pipeline. But Turkmenistan rejects all184

proposals to bring IOCs – except CNPC – into isolationist policy lead by Saparmurad Niazov.its onshore upstream. Some say that a This opening can potentially change the facedecision should be taken as soon as possible. of the country, and make wealthier the 5.1A competitor project could move forward, as million Turkmens as the State itself. “But weTehran seems ready to compromise on the should be cautious, this kind of projects yieldnuclear talks: the Iran – Pakistan (and often a different result than the oneseventually India) gas pipeline (IPI). Experts are announced. Usually, in this region, the goalalso saying “never say never” on the IPI expected is the integration in the worldproject. market but in reality the concrete result is more about unifying the national territory”,Turkmenistan on the (rail) way to global says Julien Thorez, a French geographerintegration (7 January 2014) specialist of Central Asia.Two railways projects are under constructionin Turkmenistan. They could contribute to Central Asia is on the way between two of theintegrate the country regionally and very most important economical poles of theworldwide… if the government opens to the world: Europe and China. Bilateral tradeworld between China and the EU 27 countries increased from 4 billion euros in 1978 to 432The third decade of independence of the billion in 2012. Most of it goes through marineCentral Asia Republics could be the one of transport, much cheaper than inlandtheir global integration. Since 22 years, they transportation. But for some goods or whenare fighting to end their geographical there is a need to get the delivery quicker,isolation. Sometimes it’s a success, as in clients may choose the land transportation.Kazakhstan, when their leaders are not afraid Some experts think that 10% of the tradeto open their country and their businesses to between China and Europe will be transportedthe world. Sometimes it’s a failure, as in inland in 2020. That means that Central AsiaUzbekistan or Turkmenistan, when theirs has a big chance to catch part of it. Kazakhstanleaders choose to curl up on themselves and recently implemented a real strategy tocreate obstacles to investments, local or channel Chinese goods through its territory.foreign ones. 2,3 million tons of those were carried through Kazakhstan in 2007, 2,8 in 2011. That’s almostAbout the latter, Turkmenistan, we have to 20% increase within 4 years.admit that PresidentGurbangulyBerdymukhamedov has opened a Turkmenistan’s geographical location giveslot his country since he came to power in hope that it could catch part of this freight.2007. A lot remains to be done, because by Ashgabat is aware of that and signed akeeping a dictatorship rule he de facto trilateral intergovernmental agreement inmaintains many obstacles to create favourable 2007, with Kazakhstan and Iran, to build up aconditions for a genuinely vivid economy. But railway line as part of the “North-Southit is true that he restored much better Transport corridor”. Train should soon runrelations with the neighbours, after years of from Novyi Uzen (Zhanaozen) in Kazakhstan,185 via the Karakum desert in the Caspian region of Turkmenistan, and join Iran railway network in the mountainous Gulistan province at Gorgan. 700 of the 900 kilometres of the “North South” lines run through the Turkmen territory. It is expected to carry between 5 and 12 million tons a year. Thus, the North-South project should connect Turkmenistan to Russia, Kazakhstan, China and the Persian Gulf (Bandar Abbas port), that

is with the rest of the world. It is especially important challenge for the Turkmentrue as Iran also seeks de-isolation. The Islamic leadership today is to dare to reform itsRepublic built 2.000 km of railroad in 2011 and political culture”, says Jan Šír.plans to add 15.000 km more in the comingyears, with the help of Chinese finances Is Russia Abandoning Turkmenistan? (24among others. The main traffic is expected January 2014)first to be oil products and Kazakh grain, but We asked four well known Russian specialistsalso Chinese goods produced in western China on Central Asia to answer the followingand sold to Iran, or via Iran. question: Is Russia abandoning Turkmenistan? Many observers of the region (includingWhat about Turkmen goods? “Turkmenistan diplomats, experts, businessmen…) have thecan certainly export its oil and cotton impression that Russia indeed will no longerproduction through the North-South railway. be a player in Turkmenistan.But this new line should be a stimulator toproduce more added value in the country and Last September, the ten-day visit to Centrallaunch a real industrialization phase”, argues Asia of Chinese President Xi Jinping leftJan Šír, a Research Fellow at the Department everyone with the feeling that, in the “newof Russian and East European Studies of the great game”, Beijing is now holding all theCharles University, in Prague. While Turkmens aces, and that Moscow as nothing left in itsfaces problems in exporting their gas through hand. Strangely, the Russians seem to viewalternative pipeline routes through this new reality without emotions, withAfghanistan (TAP) and to the Caspian Sea, indifference. Some Russian Central Asiathey could even expect to export experts think that this is because Moscow haspetrochemicals products via railway. But that no hope to bring Ashkhabad back into itsmight be possible for too marginal volumes. sphere of influence. Others are thinking that“Moreover, these petrochemical products while Russia doesn’t really need Turkmenistancould face problems to be exported via the at the moment, it only tries to ensure thatneighbouring countries as these ones could be that the Turkmen political line does not gocompetitors”, warns Julien Thorez. The second against its strategic interest, particularly in therailroad that Ashgabat is building is the one gas sector and in geopolitics.connecting Turkmenistan with Afghanistanand Tajikistan. Originally, the idea was For Alexey Malashenko, the co-chair of thesupported by Americans in the frame of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Religion, Society,“New silk road” strategy, in order to sustain and Security Program, this is because “theregional stability through trade relations country is already lost for Russia, despite allamong the neighbouring countries and the babbling giving the illusion that Moscow iseconomical development. Ashgabat financed still influential in Ashkhabad. But even theseits part of the railroad and expects to export discussions about Turkmenistan are more andoil and agricultural products. more rare. The Russian media these days are dedicating very few articles to Turkmenistan.With these two railroads, Turkmenistan is For us, this is a forgotten country.”creating the conditions for its regional andglobal integration. That should boost the According to this expert’s opinion, Saparmuratindustrialization of the country and the Niazov and his successor, Gurbangulydevelopment of many services businesses Berdymukhamedov, have won. By convincingcreated alongside the freight crossing its the United Nations General Assembly toterritory. But many challenges are ahead: recognize Turkmenistan’s “status ofspeeding services, eradicating corruption, permanent neutrality” in January 1996 and bylowering the bureaucracy, complying with constantly trying to contain Russian influenceinternational standards. Many alternative in their country, they finally managed to pushroutes exist. No one is waiting for Russia out. “Now Vladimir Putin is focused onTurkmenistan. “That’s why the most his Eurasian Union project. The former Soviet186

republics that do not want to become its main interests are not threatened bymembers of this are about to really split with Turkmenistan: “After the world economicalRussia”, adds Malashenko. crisis, the most important thing for Moscow was to prevent the construction of the Trans-In recent years, Russia seems indeed to have Caspian gas pipeline, as well as the Nabuccolost its interest in Turkmenistan. With the one, which would bring Turkmen gas tofinancial crisis, Gazprom abruptly stopped European markets where it would competebuying Turkmen gas in April 2009, before with Gazprom.resuming the purchases at much smallervolumes. Until then, Russia was purchasing In this situation of low interest for Russia,around 40 bcm (Billion Cubic Meters) a year in “relations in the future will remain focused onTurkmenistan. Last year, it was about 12 bcm. the question of the status of the Caspian Sea,This was a big blow for Ashkhabad’s budget, the problem of dual citizenship for Russians inand the Central Asian republic relied more and Turkmenistan, and attempts to establishmore on China while trying, in vain to find a cooperation to counter threats of radicalsolution, to also export to the West, to extremism from Afghanistan”, says Dubnov.Europe. According to Konstantin Simonov, the Some of these questions might not remainGeneral Director of the National Energy that important for the diplomatic and politicalSecurity Fund, a Moscow based consulting relations between Moscow and Ashkhabad.firm, this general context explains the Russian “This is the case, for example, with the dualretreat from Turkmenistan. citizenship issue, since the number of Russians in Turkmenistan is constantly decreasing”,“Russia is indeed leaving Turkmenistan”, he Malashenko thinks.says. “The gas market has changed a lot. Tenyears ago, Russia didn’t know if it would be Ajdar Kurtov, an analyst with the Russianable to produce enough gas to provide to its Institute for Strategic Studies in Moscow,domestic market and honour its contracts disagrees with the idea that Moscow iswith Europeans. That’s why, then, abandoning Turkmenistan. “CooperationTurkmenistan was very strategic for Moscow. continues,” he says. “Turkmenistan buysBut, in the meantime, Russia managed to put different kinds of products in Russia, includinginto production various deposits and, with the weapons. Yes, the gas volumes purchased bydecrease in European demand overall due to Gazprom decreased significantly. But Moscowthe financial and economic crisis starting in is not the only one to blame for that. After all,2008, Gazprom no longer needs to buy Turkmen gas went primarily to Ukraine, andTurkmen gas.” That context explains why recently Kiev has stopped its gas purchasesultimately Russians were happy to see this gas from Turkmenistan. So there is competitionbeing purchased by China. Indeed, Moscow’s going on. In certain spheres Moscow hasmain worry with regard Turkmen gas is to made concessions, especially to China, whilemake sure that it will not become a in others it has so far maintained its position.competitor on the huge and profitable But in the political field, I don’t see anyoneEuropean market. else able to play a dominant role in Turkmenistan, be it China, US, Iran, Turkey orAs the journalist and Central Asia expert the EU.”Arkady Dubnov emphasizes, “Russia’s policytowards Turkmenistan, of course, is primarily Politically, “Turkmenistan didn’t betray itsdetermined by the interest in Turkmen gas.” neutrality policy, and Moscow was not askingThe question is now to figure out, since for that. This of course suits the KremlinTurkmen gas is no longer holds interest for perfectly. It is much better for Russia than, forRussia, if the Kremlin would remain a player in example, a desire to join NATO, as Tbilisi has.Ashkhabad or not. Simonov has real doubts Russian politics in Turkmenistan will notabout this. At minimum, as Dubnov put it, we change in the short term. Ashkhabad is notcan say that Moscow is first making sure that ripe for any active integration or for a final187

divorce”, concludes Kurtov. It might be too and the sanctions are lifted, then it will asearly to know if the current period is just a soon as possible do everything to attractkind of parenthesis in Russian–Turkmen investments in its oil and gas industry. But Irelations, or if Moscow’s retreat is more final. don’t think it will affect negatively TurkmenThe dynamics of Post colonialism show us that gas exports to Iran, which are around 10 bcmthe colonizer never departs so rapidly. But the per year, because Iran will need this gas for itsemergence of China in the world arena and in northern regions, which are heavilyits Central Asian backyard is a truly new populated. But the most important is thatphenomenon that could surprise us. Iran, if it de-isolates, would open the whole region, for trade, hydrocarbons industry, forWhat will 2014 be like for Turkmenistan? all kinds of investments. Car industry forFour experts’ view on regional geopolitics example could restart. If Iran comes back to(11 February 2014) the international scene, the regional balanceIn an effort to bring new voices to give their will be deeply changed because everythingopinion and expertise, we have asked four that has been made in the region for 15 yearsspecialists of Central Asia to tell us what was about bypassing Iran. It will not happen2014could be like for Turkmenistan. Here is overnight as Tehran will need years to restoresome verbatim. The region is changing a lot, the confidence. But 2014 should be the yearand this will necessarily affect Turkmenistan when we will understand if Iran’s comeback will happen or not. At the moment, we can be *** reasonably optimistic. And Turkmenistan“If Iran comes back to the international scene should be looking at these discussions very(…) the regional balance will be deeply closely.changed” ***Mohammad-Reza Djalili, political analystfocusing on the Middle-East and Central Asia “In the Turkmen steppes, it is pretty calm”The relations between Ashkhabad and Tehranare quite good at the moment. The trade Ilham Shaban, Director of the Azerbaijanexchange is increasing, being around 10 billion Centre for Oil Studies and energy specialist atdollars last year. Looking at geopolitics, two the Turan Information Agencydimensions should be noticed. First, Azerbaijan started very actively in 2014. In theTurkmenistan and Iran share one thousand very first days of the year, President Aliyevkilometers border. The last year, the two paid an official visit to Brussels where hecountries made progress to be more assured EU leaders that Baku would fulfil all itsconnected, with the construction of a new obligations in the energy field. He wasrailway. In 2014, these efforts could continue speaking of course about the Shah Deniz- 2as both territories can be used as a transit one and gas pipeline projects, TANAP and TAP, tofor the other: Turkmenistan wants to have export this coming production to Europe. Inaccess to the world markets via Iran’s ports in short, it was a good preparation for the startthe South and Iran wants to have access to of the 60 billion dollars investments in oil andCentral Asia. The second geopolitical gas projects in Azerbaijan for the period 2014-dimension is about security. Ashkhabad and 2018. In this scenario, on the right bank of theTehran share interests, whether on the Caspian Sea, in the Turkmen steppes, it isdangers coming from Afghanistan or on the pretty calm. Since the end of last year, at theSyrian issue. Of course, in 2014, the most official level, Ashkhabad didn’t give any “signimportant question is the ongoing discussions of life”, about its intentions to transport itsbetween Tehran and Washington, and the gas to the Western direction. However, theInternational Community, about the Iranian government of Turkmenistan is activelynuclear issue. They can have a strong and negotiating for its gas exports to otherpositive impact on Turkmenistan. If Iran fully destinations. For example, in 2014 a numbercomes back into the International Community of scheduled action are planned to begin the188

construction of the Turkmenistan – Kyrgyzstan quite seriously. It may at some point in the– China gas pipeline. Furthermore, in the future increase pressure on Turkmenistan tocurrent year it is also planned to conduct participate in CSTO activities or even toseveral rounds of talks on the TAPI pipeline become a member, though such pressure will(Turkmenistan –Afghanistan – Pakistan – not come for some time. China will continueIndia). Working groups are stepping up work to free-ride on Russian security assistance andin this direction. However, no event is will continue to focus on dominatingscheduled to talk about exporting gas across economic developments in Central Asia as athe Caspian Sea, even theoretically. This topic whole and Turkmenistan in particular.is only evoked during conferences. In Europe’s role will be minimal at best. IndiaAshkhabad, in their meetings, the Turkmen and Turkey have made some efforts toofficials are even not using the word “trans- increase security ties to Central Asian states,Caspian gas pipeline”. Therefore it is difficult but have not achieved that much.to predict if in 2014 the officials in Ashkhabadwill make some steps going in this direction. *** “Strenghthening the relations with the *** foreign partners”“Narcotics trafficking will remain the greatestsecurity challenge” Isabella Damiani, geograph, specialist on Central Asia, teaching at the VersaillesDmitry Gorenburg, research analyst with the University (France)think tank CNA Strategic Studies Whereas Niyazov (Turkmenbashi) put theI think drug (narcotics) trafficking will remain “permanent neutrality” at the center of histhe greatest security challenge for foreign policy, which lead to a kind ofTurkmenistan in the next year. The US “geopolitical independence”, his successordeparture from Afghanistan may lead to Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov have slightlygreater instability in the region, though most changed the Turkmen diplomacy. Hediscussion of its impact on Central Asia immediately shown his will to strengthen theexaggerates the likely impact, so I would list relations with his country’s partners, mostlythis as a second challenge. If the US pulls out the main ones in the economical field, as Iranall, or even most, of its troops, from and China, and the Central Asia neighbours asAfghanistan, this will prove that the focus on Afghanistan or Uzbekistan. For this year, wethe region is at an end. The financial should pay attention to the question if, atallocations for security assistance to Central least, Turkmenistan as a regional energyAsian states are another good signal. If this power, starts to be able to use its geographicalassistance is cut significantly, that will be position to be a bridge between the post-proof that the withdrawal from Afghanistan Soviet space and Middle East and export itsalso signals the end of US paying much hydrocarbons production. Its location can beattention to Central Asia. Since Turkmenistan seen as a chance, as it is far enough fromis fairly isolated in security and alliance terms, Russia for example, as well as a difficult one. IfI don’t think the consequences will be very Ashkhabad continues with this dynamics ofsignificant. Even if the Taliban does take over strengthening the relations with the foreignin Afghanistan and uses the country as a base partners, we should expect someto spread insurgency to Central Asia, this developments at the economical and energytakeover would take a long time to complete, level as well as in the security and defenceso there would not be much of an effect in fields. In this respect, the withdrawal from the2014. Russia will retain the lead role for NATO troops will be a very important eventsecurity assistance to Central Asia as a whole, for Turkmenistan.though Turkmenistan itself is much moreclosely tied to China in economic terms.Russian efforts to strengthen the CSTO are asign that it is taking Central Asian security189

Red lines become redder (21 May 2014) example Pavel Baev, a specialist of Russia atFor Turkmenistan, the Ukrainian crisis won’t the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).change fundamentally its relations withRussia. But Ashgabat will probably be even The point is also that, despite difficultmore careful to not anger the Russian bear moments such as the brutal interruption of Russia’s gas exports in 2009 or the revocationTurkmenistan is not at the centre of Russian the next year of the license in Turkmenistan ofattention at the moment. It will last, but the Russian mobile operator MTS, AshgabatRussian assertiveness will certainly make “was not really troublesome these last yearsAshgabat more careful to not cross what for Moscow”, notes Luca Anceschi, lecturer inMoscow considers as red lines in the bilateral Central Asian Studies at the University ofrelation. “Turkmenistan isn’t in the first line Glasgow. Certainly, the policy of the formerwhen it comes to Russian ambitions in the Turkmen President, Saparmurat Niyazov, wasformer Soviet Union. Having no border with more confrontational with Russia, as he wasRussia and, after all, quite good political and trying to impose a nationalist agenda righttrade relations, the Ukrainian crisis, and the after the collapse of Soviet Union. The newRussian policy in the former USSR, shouldn’t president, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov,have a direct impact on Turkmenistan”, says seems more conciliatory with the Kremlin.Jan Šír, a Research Fellow at the Department But, finally, explains Anceschi, who did his PhDof Russian and East European Studies of the on Turkmenistan’s foreign policy – PositiveCharles University, in Prague. Neutrality and the Consolidation of the Turkmen regime (Routledge 2008), “thisMuch depends on the interpretation of neutrality policy which has proven to be veryRussian recent moves. Some think that the effective for Ashgabat, more than a multi-Kremlin just wants to defend its interests, vectorial one would have been”.especially the security ones. Others see inRussia’s aggressiveness a will to restore a kind In the recent past, an aggressive Russianof Soviet Union, for pragmatic and ideological rhetoric was heard when Ashgabat was tryingreasons, namely the Putin’s project of to push hard to build a trans-Caspian gas“Eurasian Union”. “I don’t think Moscow has a pipeline to export its gas to the West. That ismaster-plan. Putin is experimenting with new one of Moscow’s red lines. Nevertheless,opportunities and imperatives. In Ukraine it is “Turkmenistan will continue to holdabout turning Kyiv away from signing the not- discussions about this pipeline with Azerbaijanso-meaningful agreement with Europe. under the aegis of the EU. These discussionsInterestingly and somewhat surprisingly, the will continue to be unlikely to bear fruit. Ifover-concentration on the theme Russia- construction of such a pipeline were everagainst-West as a clash of civilizations has left actually agreed, Russia could consider anstates like Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan or armed incursion into Turkmenistan or simplyTajikistan, completely out”, observe for an intimidating naval presence. Gazprom still wishes to maintain its existing monopoly for190 Turkmenistani gas sold into Europe”, asserts Robert Cutler, Senior Research Fellow, Institute of European, Russian & Eurasian Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa (Canada). Ashgabat is unlikely to take the risk to cross that red line. It would possibly do so if Europe would guarantee the pipeline’s construction through one agreement or another with Russia. But Brussels seems to be very far from that. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan will continue to contain Moscow’s influence by reducing its

importance in the main businesses of the Gazprom, a new competitor tocountry, such as by keeping big Russian Turkmenistan in China? (1 June 2014)companies out of its strategic sectors, for History was made on the 21st May over theexample gas or railway transportation. gas deal between Russia and China, and not simply because of the amount of moneyAs red lines are understood in Russia as not written into the contract: 400 Bn dollars, toallowing the West to be a major actor in the deliver 38 bcm/y over 30 years. This deal is aformer Soviet Union, the Afghanistan issue breakthrough because it completes ten yearscould be a point of disagreement between of negotiations between Moscow and BeijingMoscow and Ashgabat. But Turkmenistan’s and marks the real beginning of Russia’sneutrality status will still continue to keep it conquest of the Chinese and Asian gas market.safe. However, the security issue could lead It is not a historic moment because Russia willRussia to ask Turkmenistan for more somehow switch immediately to the Chinesecooperation. For Alexander Knyazev, head of market and cease supplying Europe. Such athe analytical information centre Caspian geo-political switch, motivated by Mr Putin’sBridge, “Turkmenistan is more worrying for standoff with the West and sanctions thatRussia than the other Central Asia countries could prove very uncomfortable for hiswhich border Afghanistan. Tajikistan is regime, is far from becoming a reality andmember of the CSTO, which means that Russia depends on several factors.has the ability to control this part of theborder with Afghanistan. Uzbekistan withdrew The Shanghai May 21st gas deal couldfrom CSTO, but there is a 2005 agreement potentially be bad news for Turkmenistan.which give Russia the possibility to carry out Until now, Moscow has never opposedintensive cooperation in security matters. But Ashgabat’s sales of sizeable volumes of gas toTurkmenistan didn’t participate to regional China. It was even considered a positivesecurity meetings of any form. This is a arrangement for Gazprom, because theproblem since there is a sharp increase in the Central Asian Republic, which may hold theactivity of the radical Islamist groups”. 4th largest natural gas reserves in the world, does not compete with Russia for the EU. InWhat could constitute Russian leverage 2013, for example, Gazprom generated 58% ofagainst Turkmenistan if the latter would cross its revenues from the EU and Turkey throughwhat Moscow considers as red lines? The the sale of only 37% of its volumes. NotRussian minority in Turkmenistan? “It’s surprisingly, Moscow in recent years has usedunlikely nowadays. This minority is very small, as much political and economic leverage as it4% of the whole Turkmen population. If we can to prevent Turkmenistan from becoming alook at the past, we see that even when the competitor on such a lucrative market.Niyazov’s regime was treating it badly,Moscow didn’t do much to help it”, observes But what of China? As Mikhail Krutikhin, aJan Šír. Other means of leverage, besides a partner at the independent RusEnergymilitary incursion, include supporting apossible “coup d’Etat”, economic pressures,creating bad relations for Turkmenistan withneighbouring countries etc. But for themoment, Moscow, being preoccupied withthe crisis in Ukraine, seems to be forgettingabout Turkmenistan while Ashgabat seems farfrom daring to cross any red lines.191

consulting agency recently wrote: “Putin has handle the gas from Turkmenistan, and is inbeen urging Gazprom to accelerate its eastern the final stage of constructing WEP 3, whichprojects since October 23, 2012, when he will be completed in 2015. Both WEP 2 and 3admitted during a session of the presidential can transport 60 bcm/y of gas, 30 bcm/y each,energy commission that Russia was losing the from Central Asian Republics. China willrace for a sizeable niche on the global gas construct WEP 4 & 5 ultimately, presumablymarket because of the shale revolution in the by 2020. Russia aims at taking advantage ofUnited States, gas trade liberalization in the WEP 4 or 5 construction as there could beEurope, and the emergence of new producers a delay of pipeline gas supply from Uzbekistanof liquefied natural gas. Creating an Asian and Kazakhstan. This is the reason whyoutlet for Russian gas became a geostrategic President Putin and Mr Miller had stronglygoal for the Russian president—especially in indicated the Altai route export will be re-view of Moscow’s worsening relations with addressed right after the eastern route exportthe west” (article posted on the Carnegie to China”, says Keun-Wook Paik, seniorMoscow Center website). research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) and author of the bookIt’s unclear if the Shanghai deal will hurt Sino-Russian Oil and Gas Cooperation: TheTurkmenistan. On the one hand, Reality and Implications (Oxford University“Turkmenistan gas contracts are more Press, 2012).important to China than the May 21st onewith Russia”, says Michal Meidan, a specialist If Russia does manage to build the Altai gason Chinese energy issues. Gazprom signed a pipeline, does it mean that Turkmenistan willcontract for 38 bcm/y while Ashgabat has face serious competition from Russia for itscommitments to supply up to 65 bcm/y. Thus, gas exports? That’s not certain, says MichalTurkmenistan is for China the first source for Meidan. “China needs a lot of gas and couldimported gas, with 17.7 bcm last year. need every gas available. Coal represents“Contrary to the agreement with Russia, as far more than one third of its energy mix. That’s aas we know, the advantage of Turkmenistan is big environment problem, and therefore athat it gave China access to upstream”, adds social and political one. This is why ChineseMeidan. authorities decided to increase its gas consumption. But in the meantime, Beijing isBut the main threat for Turkmenistan comes very optimistic about the domestic productionfrom the Altai gas pipeline that Russia has of shale gas.”been wanting to build for many years. Rightafter the Shanghai deal, Mr Putin and But China is such an important player in the___Miller, the Gazprom CEO, re-launched the Eurasian region that Russia might not try toidea. “There are no doubts that Russia did challenge it in Turkmenistan through unfairenormous concessions to China with this deal. methods. “Instead of trying to preventMoscow needed this deal for geopolitical Turkmenistan gas supply to China, Gazpromreasons, to show to Europe that it can switch will consider how effectively they can useits exports to East and no longer fear their west Siberia’s gas supply for export tosanctions and isolation from the West. That’s China. Considering that the distance fromwhy Mr Putin immediately mentioned the West Siberia’s existing gas fields to China’sAltai pipeline. But China doesn’t want it”, Xinjiang border area is only 2.000 km,asserts Krutikhin. Gazprom could accelerate the gas pipeline passing through the Tomsk region, where aChina’s contracted volume from Central Asian number of scattered gas fields are locatedrepublics is 100 bcm/y, of which 65 bcm/y along the Altai route. In my view, Russia willfrom Turkmenistan, 25 bcm/y from not openly try to block the gas export fromUzbekistan, and 10 bcm/y from Kazakhstan. Turkmenistan to China, but will try to compete“So far, China has constructed only one (West- against the gas supply from central AsianEast Pipeline 2) large diameter gas pipeline to republics using the existing west Siberia’s gas192

fields”, explains Keun-Wook Paik. Beijing willprobably be glad to observe regional gasproducers competing to get access to its hugemarket.193

MYAKHRI ILYASOVA used it as a trampoline for his own career. In the 1990s, leading actors and one of theReturn from oblivion (20 March 2008) masterminds of the new theatre – a famousTurkmenistan makes attempts to return the theatre artist Berdyguly Amansakhatov - leftpeople who were cast off from the art world «Jan». The following theatrical seasonsby Niyazov. However, amongst these were not revealed that Ashirov failed. In 1994, heonly cultural figures who tried to retain their directed a performance of a play authored byindependence from the authorities. the press secretary of Turkmenbashi Kakamurad Ballyev «Peder Tumory» with aThere were also those who, by means of their simple plot about the mother and the fathertalents, supported Niyazov but, however, fell of President Niyazov. The aim was achieved:into disgrace. The behavior of dictators is the performance was noticed. Ashirov wasunpredictable: one day you are the favourite, eager to take his place in the temple of fame.the next someone else is. At a meeting of intellegensia with Niyazov in 1995, it was Kakadjan Ashirov who suggestedAzatlyk Radion (Radio Liberty Turkmen making the President’s birthday (19 February)Service) recently voiced a request from the a national holiday. He suggested this on behalftown of Mary to engage the stage director of the intelligentsia though he was neverKakadjan Ashirov again in the staging of delegated to do so. Therefore, the Turkmenperformances. Many have reaction to this calendar has acquired a new holiday - «Day ofwith indignation, in particular, former actors the State Flag» which was celebrated onof the Djan Youth Experimental Theatre, Niyazov`s birthday. After that, Ashirov wastheatrical circles and journalists. appointed first deputy of the Minister of Culture and Chairman of the Committee onAccording to them, K. Ashirov is one of those tele- and radio broadcasting.who contributed to the creation of apersonality cult, i.e. he was an architect of According to the experts, whilst being in“turkmenbashism”. They recalled the events office, Kakadjan Ashirov has done great harmof the past years. to the culture of the country, something that will be evident for a long time. With hisIt is true that Ashirov was in a team of self- support, untalented and often come-and-gomotivated graduates from the Moscow-based people entered the Institute of Culture. Manytheatrical institutes who protested against the of them currently work in the Ministry oftheatrical routine and Soviet clichés and Culture.managed to establish the Youth ExperimentalTheatre «Jan» in 1988. However, Ashirov who The habit to decide at his own discretion who,soon became the head of the new troupe from those people in the field of culture,betrayed the actors and the theatre as he should be awarded or who should be enrolled in the Institute has damaged Ashirov`s career.194 Once, while resting abroad, he called the rector of the Institute of Culture and required him to cross out several names from the list of the enrolled students. He read out the names of other young people to be admitted instead. Apparently he forgot that all phone calls in the country were bugged. Upon his return from vacation, Ashirov was dismissed from all his posts. As fine art experts recall, when taking a leading post in the Ministry of Culture, Ashirov forced all performers to play, sing, and dance

just for the sake of one person. Manyrepresentatives of the intelligentsia rememberKakadjan Ashirov telling Turkmenbashi that hewas ready to be his motley fool since any kingshould have a motley fool. And to show hiscommitment, he kissed Niyazov`s hand.Following his example, such kissing hasbecome the norm.Should professionals such as Kakadjan Ashirovbe returned? Perhaps, a motley fool is neededby the new «king» now? ***The web-site editors office does not fullysupport the author’s viewpoint. Certainly,people of culture who were cast off during thereign of Niyazov should be returned to activework. Yet, if we start dividing these people into«worthy» and «unworthy», will Turkmenculture really benefit from this? On the otherhand, dozens of representatives of culturalintelligentsia have not caved in to the regimeof Turkmenbashi and have upheld their civilposition. The return from oblivion of this verygroup of cultural figures will surely be taken bythe country’s population and the internationalcommunity as the beginning of a thaw inTurkmenistan.195

DURDY NAZAROV business with officers paying the instructors for credits on their physical training or bulletNumerous and overweight (24 December shooting reports.2008)Huge allocations from the state budget to An expert argues that if a physical check-up ofsupport the police forces are not a guarantee the staff of any of the etrap`s or city`sfor the successful operation of the law departments of the internal affairs were to beenforcement agencies. carried out, it would reveal that one third of the officers and two thirds of the general staffAs a clear example, one can recall the 11-12 would fail to reach a qualifying standard forSeptember events in Ashgabat when in an running 200 meters, not to mention crossattempt to neutralize two armed persons up country running or exercises on the chinningto 15 law enforcement officers were killed. bar.Why then have the law enforcement bodies However, during the independence era,which are well-sponsored by the state turned nobody ever organized tests for officers of theout to be so helpless? Interior ministry, thus the number of overweight policemen unable to defend law«Just look at that policeman», says a resident and order in emergency situations hasof the Keshi village pointing with a nod of his become frighteningly high.head toward a stout guardian of order whohas difficulty getting out of his own vehicle. «I Money and profitable connections are thebet he will never go where the danger is. He attributes common to the overall activities ofhas a decent salary – almost 5 million mantas the Turkmen law enforcement structuresand additionally he receives gifts from the starting from enrollment of the students tosellers he oversees and receives fines from the Police Academy. It is mainly the childrenpetty crime offenders. He has a fully furnished whose parents or close relatives who areapartment and a new car, a wife and children. employed in the law enforcement structuresIt is he who needs to be protected ...» who are admitted in the Academy. Almost 100% of the enrollees – future officers of theA poor level of physical and professional Defense Ministry and the Ministry of thetraining of the police officers runs deep. National Security – are enrolled in theseCertainly, the Ministry of Interior Affairs offers higher education establishments by givingspecial courses on physical training. However, bribes or through the back door. For instance,in a situation of overall corruption, when this year, in order to be enrolled in the Policeeverything can be sold and purchased, these Academy, a bribe between 12 and 15training courses long ago turned into a sort of thousand dollars was required.196 In the era of Turkmenbashi, who was deeply concerned with security, the law enforcement structures never experienced cuts in personnel. On the contrary, when thousands of teachers and doctors were mercilessly sacked and libraries were closed down, the number of employees in the systems of the Interior Ministry and the Ministry of the National Security grew like weeds. Local people joke: «There are so many policemen in our country, so soon there will be one policeman for each family».

It seems that soon this will come true. At theSeptember sitting of the State SecurityCouncil, G. Berdymukhamedov ordered to«explore in detail the issue of launching aspecial secondary school of police inTurkmenistan and secondary military schools ineach velayat».Apparently, the President mentioned theincident that happened in the country in mid-September. What if somebody again breaksdown and in extreme despair is driven to resortto arms! Then the Turkmen law enforcementagencies will neutralize the «terrorists», if notby their skills then by their sheer number.In no case, all representatives of the lawenforcement agencies in Turkmenistan can beconsidered non-professionals or corrupt.During the September events, the officers sentto conduct «negotiations» with the desperatearmed rebels were aware that they would die.They only asked their colleagues to take care oftheir families and went to carry out an order…The President ordered that those who werekilled in this special operation doing their dutybe given awards. Yet, until now, the decrees onawards have not been published. What are theauthorities afraid or ashamed of? After all, it isabout those who carried out the silly orders oftheir supervisors scarifying themselves. Itshould be stressed that the supervisors weregranted awards and this fact was cheerfullyreported by the Turkmen press.In this situation, who should be the model forthe numerous policemen and students? Thosewho were killed or those who sprouted belliesand happily go about in their cars collecting thetributes from salesmen? No, people pay 15thousand dollars when entering the PoliceAcademy not to die. And the authorities arewrong if they intend to defend the order in thecountry and, at the same time, themselves,with the help of a large and overweight armyof policemen ...197

ALTYN NUROVA undergo a compulsory treatment in the narcology clinic or sometimes by launchingThe more people we send to jail – the him/her into eternity.better! (21 December 2010)In the country with a small number of It seems that the more people will beinhabitants (about 5 mln), dozens of arrested, the better it will be for the lawthousands of people (according to the data of enforcers.human rights organizations, about 40thousand) are currently kept in jails. Many of In other words, law enforcement agencies andthem have been convicted unlawfully on judicial system make money out of otherfabricated charges. This is how large numbers people`s misery, easily breaking the lives ofof law enforcers prove their vital importance their fellow-citizens, confiscating and keepingto the country`s authorities. their belongings, arranging provocations, and convicting the law-abiding citizens or forcingMaking use of the unspoken requirement of them out of the country.the absolute control over the country`scitizens for personal advantage, as well as of On 10 December 2010, on the Internationaltheir service rank and absence of supervision, Human Rights Day state newspaper Neitralnymany officers of special services also accrue Turkmenistan published a Decree of thepersonal benefits. President of Turkmenistan «On Amnesty of Convicts in honor of the National Holiday ofHaving sentenced an innocent person who Turkmenistan – The Day of Neutrality». Thewas somehow related to an NGO or travelled lists of the people released mostly namedabroad on an exchange program, one can those who had been convicted two-threereport to the authorities about suppression of months ago. Is here a guarantee that all 1986sabotage activities of the potential «betrayers amnestied have been put on the lists withoutof the Motherland». One can even get the bribes paid by their relatives?promoted or receive a letter of gratitude andappreciation from the management. The wave of arrests, which covered Turkmenistan in the last ten years, is on theHaving detained a successful businessman, rise. The search of the new victims continues.one can demand money from him for theclosure of the criminal case and if the «My son has been imprisoned since 2002.businessman is too quick to agree, the Parcels are forbidden. Once he managed torequired sum can be further increased … send me a message that he needs some medicine. I asked my doctor what it is goodIf a person who lives alone and owns an for. He answered that it causes indifference toapartment – comes in sight, this apartment pain…It means that they are continued to becan be confiscated by forcing the person to tortured there, in Ovadan-depe?» a woman198 from Lebap says with tears in her eyes. «We are tired of inspections», says an officer of the state tax inspection. «Following the removal of Mr. Umnov, mass arrests have commenced everywhere. The deputy head of the Main Tax Inspection Service of Turkmenistan Mr. Prjanikov has been also detained. Now he is released but he had to give a written undertaking not to leave the place. He has been staying at home for the past two months, waiting for the trial and is afraid to talk about it even with his relatives. A

very competent person, he has occupied this she suffered a lot. She said that it was herpost from the Soviet times. There are very few friend from the MNS who had offered herspecialists of his level in our sphere» … some wine on that day to celebrate a holiday and as soon as she came out to the market,Many still remember a high-profile scandal of she was detained by the police although shethe last year with the arrest and extradition of neither yelled out curses nor got into a brawl.a Turkmen environmental activist Andrei The next day she was brought again toZatoka. This was followed by an arrest of Dashoguz and we have never seen her sinceanother scientist. Both had to leave the then. Initially, a female police captain lived incountry immediately. In their situations, her apartment. We have no idea who livessecond (Russian) citizenship was of great help there now», Olga`s friends say sadly.for both. In late November Nikolay T. was found dead inThe situation for the citizens of Turkmenistan House 15 in the Bagirskaja Street. A blind oldis much worse. On 5 October 2009, Ms. Gozel lady, who Nikolay had brought bread everyParchamova, an advisor of the Turkmenistan`s day to, raised the alarm: «Kolya has notForeign Ministry, has been arrested right in stopped by for three days already». We calledthe airport in front of many people. the police… «A year ago Nikolay sold his apartment to a military man. The latter did«She has already passed customs control for not pay for it but instead promised to supportVIP and headed to the exit gate when the Nikolay financially. It might be the death bycustoms officers suddenly realized: why natural causes; however, his neighbors insistnobody checks her?» says an official of the that he had been «helped» to die. TheProsecutor`s Office. Allegedly, Mr. R. Meredov investigator conducted the inquiry in thehad to interfere in the case though normally presence of that military man. Who would likehe never takes anyone under his wing. to have problems? Everybody remained silent.However, this time he did not want a scandal, In addition, Nikolay was addicted to alcohol,otherwise Ms. Parchamova would have gone his wife had gone to Russia, so it is impossible«to have a rest» for about 20 years». to prove anything», says Nikolay`s neighbor.A local lawyer commented the situation with Another resident of this house mentioned thatMs. Parchamova differently: «At this time in their house, which consists of 12there was a scandal related to the information apartments, this is not the first case. «Laston the true reserves of Turkmenistan`s gas year, our neighbor, Dagestani by origin, calledhanded over to the western companies … I Ibrahim has also died unexpectedly during thethink the drugs found in the airport were not legal suit with his nephew, who had illegallyhers». confiscated the apartment of the old man after the death of his wife. The doctor, whoIf even the well-known people cannot defend has been visiting the old man, and histhemselves, what should the socially- neighbors have told the investigationunprotected citizens do? This was the case of committee that he had met a violent death.Olga Kabayeva, a daughter of the However, the criminal case was closed and theTurkmenistan`s former KGB officer. When her apartment was immediately sold by theretired father unexpectedly passed away nephew…».because of heart attack and left a large three-room apartment in the center of the city to his Many lonely people are killed because of theirdaughter, Olga was suddenly caught up by the apartments. They are often visited by peoplepolice at the Tekinsky market in front of who offer their help: «You are alone and ourastonished sellers. «She was brought to family will take care of you: you are onlyDashoguz to undergo a treatment course requested to grant your apartment to me»against alcoholism. When she came back The person agrees and a year later thehome, she had a miserable look – apparently apartment is owned by the «guardians».199