Berita Shell 1995

PUSTAKA NEGERI SARAWAK 1ilil1illl lulillll]llill]ilililllilllll lllillll lllilllll llilllil 3 2000 001096584



CONTENTS PIMMAG . MALAYSIAN OIt MAJORS UNITE FOR MUTUAL AID 2 KUDAI, KUDAT, KUDAT. THIS IS MIRI ONE, OVER.'' 7 ENERGY FOR DEVELOPMENI ll TWINKIE, TWINKLE tITTtE STAR 17 QUARTERLY HIGHTIGHTS A selection of Shell news from Malaysio. 22 WORTD IN BRIEF A summory of Shell news from oround fhe world, 23 THE GLOBAL CITIZEN Anospecf of fheRoyalDutch/ShellGroup'scommifmenf fosound busrness procficeondgood corporofe citizenship worldwide. 24 COVER: The Greot Orion Nebulo to Eorthlings is on owesome cluster of jewel dust cost over o clook of midnight velvet. Although on oncient science, Astronomy is o mystery to millions in Moloysio. However, omong the few thousond storgozers in ihis country, omoteur Moloysion ostronomer Looi Keng Kok hos devised his own sky mop, IUonuory-Mqrch lees Edilor: Lino Yop Abdulloh o Grqphic Designer: Rohoyo lsmoil o EdiloriolOffice: Corporote Affoirs Deportment, Shell Componies in Moloysio, P O Box 11027 ,50732 Kuolo Lumpur Telephone: 03-25591 44 . Telex: MA304 I 4/MA3 I 8 I 3 r Focsmile: 03-2512990 Printed by Ho Pok Sdn Bhd, Petoling Joyo Benro Shell is the corporote mogozine of Shell Componies in Moloysio ond is published quorterly, Opinions expressed in the orticles do not necessorily ldecl those of ony Shell compony. Editors of newspopers or mogozines ore welcome to reproduce ony orticle but o prior written opprovol should be obtoined from the editor, except for editors in other Shell Componies who need only to ocknowledge the source,

PIMMAG - MALAYSIAN OIL MAJORS UNITE FOR MUTUAL AID by Val MocQueen f-) effoleum operations in Malaysia, ranging from exploration and production to refining and lJynvgsling, stretches the from the narrow Straits of Malacca on the west coast of I peninsular to the South China Sea on the eastern seaboard; and across to the Sulu Sea off Sabah in East Malaysia. This means that crude oil and other petroleum products are constantly being shipped to onshore facilities to be processed and further transported to distribution depots before any product reaches its consumer. The regularity and volume of these operations - despite all stringent, preventive measures taken by the oil industry, shipping sector and marine authorities - still run the risk of marine mishaps and Bollomr Booms accidents. loid out from ships In the event an accident occurs and there is an oit spill, each oil major in Malaysia has what is called involved in on oil spill contoinment a \"Tier 1\" oil spill response (OSR) capability with response equipment located at strategic places to serve exercise in locol the needs of individual companies or companies sharing joint response agreements. Petroleum woters, Righf: Astructured companies such as PETRONAS, Shell and Esso are therefore capable of dealing with relatively small, shoring of re- sources os well os operational type oil spills such as a product line or hose rupture during product transfer operations at a close lioison with locol ond centrol jetty/ depot. outhorities would optimise the Nevertheless, it was not until September l992that aroverall and coordinated industry approach to effectiveness of combotting oil the sharing of OSR resources was formalised. The Malaysian oil majors recognised that a structured and coordinated sharing of equipment and resources as well as a close liaison with local, state and central spills, government authorities, would optimise the effectiveness of combating marine accidents and oil spills in our waters. \"Mutual Aid\" became the key words. PIMMAG - Petroleum Industry of Malaysia Mutual Aid Group - was registered as a non-profit organisation in December 1993.By July 1994, its office, housed at PETRONAS's headquarters in Kuala Lumpur was ofticially opened. The Group's members comprise PETRONAS, Shell, Esso, British Petroleum, Caltex, Mobil' Occidental Oil, Texaco, Envon Oil, Idemitsu, Petmal, Malaysia Baram Oil Development, Overseas Petroleum Investment Corporation and Nippon. Heading the organisation is John Selliman, a personable 2 Brnrn SxrrL, Jrrr-Mm tgcs

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Sabahan seconded from Sarawak Shell. More PIMMAG staff will eventually be drawn from the participating oil companies, all on a secondment basis. Oil spill response provisions (equipment, logistics and trained manpower) are costly to assemble and maintain. Joint industry action, through PIMMAG, provides the most cost effective and equitable means for the industry to prepare for possible oil spills. Three quarters of the 1995 budget of RM23 million will be deployed for equipment, the other percentage will cover operations and administration. The shared cost includes among others, capital expenditure and ongoing operational expenditure for the maintenance of shared resources. By the middle of this year, PIMMAG will have in place three manned centres - two in Peninsula Malaysia and one in Labuan. Jurisdiction will extend to 200 miles offshore. The oil companies are in close cooperation with the government, which is taking measures to monitor incidents along the entire Malaysian coastline. Of particular concern is the narrow Straits of Malacca with its congested traffic providing a constant ttreat of collision and subsequent spillage. PIMMAG 's role will be that of focal point for oil spill emergencies, acting as custodian to oil spill equipment and organising the sharing of manpower. It also interfaces with key government bodies concerned. One of the key objectives of the consortium is to provide oil spill response training to members. It will also acquire, lease, maintain and operate OSR resources and make recommendations for OSR capability optimisation. The advisory committee is drawn from ordinary members and will serve as a continuing forum. The board of directors is composed of the chief executive officers of the oil companies concerned. The structure ofresponse has already been detailed and defined. It comprises three tiers: Tier 1 - comparatively minor. Within this category, there will be no cause for shared response. Each oil company will deploy its own resources and be responsible for containing and cleaning up its own accident. The drama begins with Tier 2. If the spill is in the region of 199,000 barrels, or 30 tonnes, PIMMAG comes in to help with a response capability time of 12 to 24 hours. If the spill is beyond the capability of the region where it has occurred, equipment will be deployed immediately from the other two areas. The entity in command of response operations will continue to be the 'spiller', but PIMMAG will be present to provide equipment and the benefit of its expertise in disaster management. Tier 3 will involve a call for external resources, and these will be the Malaysian The Minister of Science, Technology & Environment closely observing the 'Oil Combot 1994' notionol oil spill response exercise in November'1994. Rlghf; Sofeguording the seo - Shell's internotionol expertise wos colled for to help in the cleon.up of thiS tonker-mishop in the Block Seo entronce to the Borphorous in I992, 4 Benrn Sxru, JeN-Men rcas I

Aviation Department, the Royal Malaysian Airforce, the Department of Environment and the Oil Spill Centre in Southampton, England. PIMMAG's goals and objectives are clearly laid out in its statement of objectives: a to support members' and non-members' response to oil spills O to facilitate the sharing ofindustry oil spill response resources among members O to review oil spill response resources from time to time O to acquire, lease, maintain and operate oil spill response resources ,M,l a to cooperate with and integrate PIMMAG's efforts with prevailing government efforts concerning the control and clean-up of oil spills (For left) John Sellimon - in the 1to provide training and asistance to members and other parties thick of O to represent the Malaysian petroleum industry with respect to oil spill response matters emergency response a to promote interests in all issues concerned with oil spill response, as well as safety, health and exercises such os this environmental issues. one conducted on on offshore plolform in John Selliman, the Shell Malaysia employee charged with administering this disaster contain- Soboh woters. ment consortium had originally as a younger man, planned to go into medicine, and in fact, started Bottomr A Shell to prepare his career along that track. However, his interest and health gradually took a wider horizon emergency response and he began to regard wellbeing from a macro point of view. teom in oction during on exercise in Selliman joinedShell as ayoungtrainingofficerwhosejobwasto setupprocedures anddevelop a safety training section which would eventually contract out its services. Shell proved true to its Pori Dickson, reputation, and Selliman's experience with the company would soon prove valuable to the industry. He was sent to Aberdeen by Shell for five-month stints in 1981, 1983 and 1990 to learn about state-of-the-art advances in oil spill disaster management. The safety training section became a reality in 1987 / 88. Selliman then went on to set up an emergency response management section in upstream Shell. Last year, he took over the administration of newly-formed PIMMAG. An honour for the man and for Shell Malaysia. The formation of PIMMAG, a true cooperative arrangement, will enable oil majors to deal with oil spills effectively and minimise damage to the marine and shore environment. Tougher legislation regarding the seaworthiness of tankers, will also go a long way towards ensuring that the environment will not suffer as a result of marine accidents.9 Brnme Sxru., JrN-Mln tcas 5

'otL coMBAT 1994', A notionol pollulion conlrol exercise Negri Sembilan: At 0600 hours on 15 November 1994, the Port Dickson District Officer (DO) received a message from the Department of Environment (DOE) that an oil tanker has collided in Port Dickson waters and had spilled some 600 tons of crude. AT 0615 hours, the emergency response area coordinator informed the DO to assemble a spill control committee (SCC) and await further instructions on shore protection. The SCC immediately invoked the District Industrial Disaster Committee and called for a meeting in the DO's office. At 0630 hours, the Shell representative in the Port Dickson refinery informed the company management duty officer of the mishap and invoked a 'Group-201' major emergency call-out. Soon after, the Shell oil spill response team assembled in the refinery's conference room to coordinate and monitor the spill situation. Minutes later, exercise participant Esso, was also called out to deploy the boom, commissiona skimmerand setup a fasttankonthereclaimed areanextto the jetty. Shell, on its part, deployed manpower and placed them on standby in the event more booms were required. The SCC also received 'complaints' from local fishermen that their fishing nets had been soiled by floating oil from the spill and that their catch had been destroyed. Compounding the situation was the'demand' from special interest or pressure groups that environmental damage be immediately assessed. These issues were managed as part of possible scenarios arising from an oil spill . At 1200 hours, PIMMAG, the Air Police and Air Force response arrived at the scene to conduct continuous air surveillance and dispersant-spraying from the air and sea. At 1400 hours, theSCC deployedmanpowerto carryoutbeachcleaning. Theentire exercise operation concluded some two hours later. This was the scenario at the national pollution control exercise, Oil Combat 1994, held by the Department of Environment. The Minister of Science, Technology & Environment, YB DatukLawHieng Ding was personally presentto observe the exercise in Port Dickson. The Shell management was represented by Encik Nizar Idris, an Executive Director and Director of Corporate Affairs, Legal and Health, Safety & Environment (HSE). Also present was Shell HSE Coordinator, Tan Ging Tuang. Shell 's participation in the national exercise was through the provision of oil spill response equipment such as dispersants, back sprayers and booms. Both Shell and Esso in Port Dickson have a long-term understanding to share oil spill response equipment to combat such spills. Shell subscribes to the 'tier'concept in formulating and implementing its oil spill response (OSR) capabilities. All facilities including its worksites and refineries are equipped with Tier 1 OSR capability.This entails onsite capability to deal with opera- tional-type spills. If a spill is deemed major and cannot be contained and recovered by a Tier 1 OSR, a Tier 2 (or Tier 3) response level will be escalated. In1994,inPort Dickson alone, Shell conducted two oil spill response exercises specifically to train and assess its refining and marketing staff in and on oil spill combat. Vol MocQueen /b o freelonce writer currently based in Kuolo Lumpur, 6 Brnrm Sxerr, JN-Mar rccs

,'KUDAT, KUDAT, KUDAT. THIS MIRI ONE, OVER.\" 'S by Chris Grahom e e I 1/ Kudat. Kudat. This is Miri One, Good Moming!\" This friendly and familiar radio call In \\ \"fraoamt. the Shell offices in Lutong, every dawn fornearly thepast quarter of a century to the Kudat Weather Station, is now no more. Along with four other weather stations along the Sarawak and Sabah coastline, Kudat has been closed signalling the end of an era . With the present low oil price, the pressure is on to contain costs and to achieve this by adopting new technology. The story goes back to the late 1960s when the first positioning chains were set up along the Borneo coast in support of offshore oil exploration. Air temperature and humidity data were needed to make signal corrections. From this small beginning, the weather stations were born. Measurements expanded to include wind speed and direction, rainfall and sunshine, and the station operators made weather observations. The stations were all located at remote coastal sites - at Igan, Kidurong and Kuala Baram Computor technology in Sarawak, at Kubong on Labuan Island and at Kudat on the northern tip of Sabah. employed in ihis wind speed ond Sabah is known as iThe Land below the Wind', as it lies to the south of the main track of typhoons crossing the Philippines. So, why was there a need for the stations? Even though the weather is fairly direction sensor quiet most of the time, there can be sudden changes, particularly from squalls. The vessels and barges on on offshore plotform tokes the used offshore are smaller in size than their North Sea counterparts, but in relative terms they are perhaps guesswork out of more vulnerable to bad weather and lost work-time. Weather forecasts are therefore essential. With few estimoiing weother condi- measurements from offshore, the weather forecaster relied heavily on the observations from the five tions of seo, coastal stations. Also, in the early days, these observations were the main source of weather information when it came to designing offshore platforms and planning operations. .iis !'irfiili r!n: Brnm Srnr, JrN-Men tcas 7

The weolher stotions The central feature ofthe weather station was theten metre high wind mast, supported by four steel guy wires. On top was perched an anemometer. This sensor had rotating cups to measure the wind speed and a vane for the wind direction. It looked robust enough, but over the last 25 years these sensors had, on occasion, fallen prey to fatal damage from lightning. Around the base of the mast stood a variety of odd-shaped pieces of hardware. There was what looked just like a small white kitchen cupboard, called a Stevenson Screen. It had louvred doors and walls, set on stilts well clear off the ground. Inside was a set of thermometers. The louvred walls screened them from direct sunlight, yet allowed a free flow of air to pass over them. The screen is named after its inventor, Thomas Stevenson, the father of the well- known author Robert Louis Stevenson. Inside, the maximum and minimum thermometers indicated the highest and lowest air temperatures reached since the last readings were taken. The 'dry-bulb' thermometer gave the actual air temperature. Alongside it was a 'wet-bulb' thermometer - its mercury bulb covered with a thin piece of wet muslin, evaporation from which lowers the temperature reading. The differ- ence between the wet and dry bulb temperatures gave a measure of the humidity, according to a standard scale. When the humidity is high, the evaporation rate will be 1ess, so there will be a smaller difference between the temperatures. A difference of 2oC at 30oC indicates a relative humidity value of 86Vo. Close by to the Stevenson Screen sat another object, slightly raised above ground level, looking just like a crystal ball. The weather stations were located in remote areas. Were the operators perhaps indulging in some fbrm of back magic in their spare time? No, innocently enough - it was a sunshine gauge. The glass ball in the gauge focuses the sun's rays onto a special time graded chart, the burnt area giving the number of hours of sunshine. Next to it stood another contraption - a strange looking bucket alrange- ment. This was the rain gauge, to collect and so record the total daily rainfall. The station was not at all quiet. There was the constant thumping of the diesel generator, supplying power for the station itselfand for the operators and their families who lived nearby. Inside the station hut could be seen the wind chart recorders and dials hanging from the wall. On the table, stood the all- important link to the outside world - the radio. A doily toutine comes lo on end The operators' day started early. They needed to have the weather observations logged and ready to hand before the six o'clock radio call from 'Miri One' in Shell Lutong. The call came with a cheerful voice from either BinraorChristina, filling the airwaves andheraldingthe start of anew day. The operators were kept busy maintaining the station's positioning equipment and making more weatherobservations. 'Miri One' called againin the afternoon for the latest weather update. Now all this is no more. Advances in new technology mean that many good things from the past come to an end. The job of the positioning stations is now done by satellites; the job of making weather observations is now done by automatic weather stations sited on production platforms offshore. It is the end of an era, and we acknowledge the dedicated work of those station operators over so many years. 8 Brnrn SHrrL, JeN-Men tcas

Aulomotic weother stotions The new automatic weather stations are now located on the Bayan, El1 and Baronia platforms in Sarawak waters, and on the Samarang, Erb West and South Furious platforms in Sabah waters. This off- shore network is supplemented with one coastal sta- tion at Lutong. The station network makes use of the latest technology in sensors, hardware and software, with the emphasis on reliability and data quality control. The offshore stations measure wind speed and direction, wave heights and periods, air temperature and pressure. The coastal station also measures rain- fall. On five of the platforms, the wave height is measured using a platform-mounted, downward-look- ing laser. For the sixth platform, waves are measured using an UHF radio transmitting directional Waverider buoy moored nearby. Each station data acquisition unir (DAU) is fitted with an 'unintemrptable power supply', which helps protect it from power surges and reduces the risk of noise comrpting the data. The DAU consists of a logger (for signal conditioning and digitisation) and a 486 personal computer (PC) for processing and for carrying out extensive quality control checks on both 'a+ thb raw and processed data. Any suspect data are flagged, and where samples are rejected or weather conditions exceed pre-set thresholds, then the raw digital data are logged for post-analysis onshore. The wave signal also passes through a filter to suppress noise that might interfere with the wave signals, especially at low sea states. Platform personnel have the benefit of real-time displays ofprocessed values updated every minute to assist with helicopter and supply boat operations. The radio operator on each platform also makes visual weather observations, typing these into the DAU with the time of entry logged automatically. Every ten minutes, another436 PC onshore in the For left: Lodies on the rodio. No more their Shell offices in Lutong interogates each weather station over the telephone network and downloads cheerful voices filling the oirwoves ond the processed data values and the latest visual weather observations. Once an hour, a summary of the storting our doy, values is sent automatically to the company electronic mail notice board, so that anyone with a Boffom for left: An observer ot the computer terminal can easily check whatthe weather is doing offshore. This same notice board also Stevenson Screen, lists the latest weather forecast and summary weather statistics. Nol Mony know its relotion to well known Every three hours, these summary data are sent automatically via a modem link to the weather outhor, Robert Louis forecast contractor in Singapore to assist with the preparation of the forecasts. Twice daily, the data Stevenson. Right:Ihe centrol feoture of the are also sent by fax to the Malaysian Meteorological Service in Kuala Lumpur. weother stotion wos the 10 metre high The real-time link to shore makes.it possible to monitor the performance of the stations and wind mqst, supported by four steel guy diagnose system and sensor faults. If necessary, the onshore central PC can be connected as a remote terminal to an offshore station DAU. These facilities help reduce data loss and cut down on the wires. frequency and cost of maintenance visits. Some problems have also been encountered with the telecommunications link to shore, so it was necessary to install a 'watch-dog' designed to re-boot the central PC should it hang-up because of communications problems. Even if this happens, the central Brnrn Sxru., Jeru-Mm rqqs 9

PC is programmed to catch up, retrieving the most recent data first. Once a month (or more frequently if necessary), the data are reformatted and up- loaded onto the company data bank for subse- quent analysis and interpretation. The benefits g As information about the actual condi- tions offshore is now available at people's *{' fingertips. In line with most computer tech- {a 'l .r:t ,\" nology, it is soon taken for granted and is now 1-.i- 1.* accepted as the norm. A number of practical benefits have already emerged. The modern reliable displays of wind and wave values make for safer helicopter and vessel opera- tions. It takes the guesswork out of estimating conditions and reduces the number of aborlive boat transfers and helicopter flights. There is also a greater awareness onshore of offshore conditions, which improves the operational Crystol bolls in the decision-making process. The data have resulted in a noticeable improvement in weather forecast middle of nowhere? These accuracy, in both timing and magnitude. sunshine recorders The laser wave height sensors also have another practical application. The data are processed to focus the sun's roys onto o time derive tidal information and the position of mean sea level relative to the platform. The results are used groded chorf. The burnt oreo gives to confirm the platform 'air gap' , defined as the minimum distance from the underside of the platform the number of hours of sunshine. deck to the maximum water level expected to be reached in the worst storm. Certain gas platforms in Sarawak waters have been built with additional 'air gaps', where it is expected that there will be subsidence as the reservoir pressure drops over time. The lasers will continue to be used to monitor this subsidence over time. Ghost from the posl The introduction of the modern automatic weather station network has signalled the end of an era. The old manual stations are now something from the past. Should your travels by chance, ever lead you to norlhern Sabah, take time out to visit the site of the old Kudat Weather Station, high on the cliffs overlooking the sea. Plan to be there just after six o'clock in the moming, just as dawn breaks. Listen to the wind and you are sure to hear the whisper of a sweet sound from the past - \"Kudat, Kudat, Kudat, this is Miri One, over.\" {D Englishmon Chris Grohom ls o mefocean engineer bosed in Miri. This is his fourth yeor with Sorawok Shell, l0 Brnrm Sxrrr, JrN-Mm tqcs

ENERGY FOR DEVELOPMENT by Peter Kossler nergy is a basic essential oflife which helps sustain a rapidly growing population. It is vital for economic growth. It contributes to raising living standards and to providing the resources needed for a cleaner world. But what of the future? Through bitter experience many know how risky it is to predict the future. Instead ofpredictions, the Shell approach to strategic planning is to use scenarios. These scenarios are \"stories\" about alternative possible futures and what they would mean for our business. These are not forecasts, but are built with a \"what if' logic that proceeds from assumptions derived from the present, to implications about a certain kind of future. The energy history of the past century has been punctuated by surprises, discontinuities and sudden changes, none of which could have been predicted by extrapolation. Scenarios help us to better understand these sea- changes by providing deeper interpretations of today's events, and of the underlying forces which will change the future. If such an approach is used to develop a scenario of economic and social development, what would this picture of the future reveal? What would be the impact on energy demand and traditional energy sources? Which technologies will surface to meet society's future energy needs? An ero of revolulions The 1980s were a period of profound, even revolutionary change in many parts of the world (Figure I). Political liberalisation has resulted in free elections andcivilian governments inmuch of Latin America and parts of East Asia. The end of the An era of revolution - economic and political liberalisation Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union has created entirely new relationships -The end of communism al1 over the world, with some of the political and military results still being violently worked break up of the USSR through, as in the former Yugoslavia. Deregulation Equally profound changes have occurred in the world of economics and markets. The Soviet collapse has been widely interpreted as a failure not only of centrally planned econo- mies. Liberalisation of markets with varying degrees ofinterpretation, is now being adopted as the received economic wisdom everywhere. 'economic miracle' Privatisation and deregularisation have been introduced with different levels of commit- ment in, for instance, the UK, United States, Japan, Australia and France.Even more far reaching changes have occurred in some de- veloping countries - for example in Latin America - where the introduction of demo- cratic reforms has often been followed by the Universalsuffrage Economicliberalisation privatisation of state companies and deregula- tion of markets. Economic reforms have been initiated in the world's most populous coun- tries, China and India. BnnrnSnru, Jlr'r-Mrn rcqs I I

Finally, as with the development of rapid intemational communications and instant media coverage, trade, financial transactions and companies' market operations have become more global, supported by the framework of international trade agreements like GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade), NAFTA ( North American Free Trade Area) and the enlargement of the European Union. Two reiponses There are two types of responses to the liberalisation and other reforms described. Some will see liberalisation as providing promising opportunities leading to success and rewards which in turn will reinforce the process. Others will see it as a threat to their position, and fearing to lose, will resist it.This leads to two scenarios: o New Frontiers and o Barricades. New Frontiers Here liberalisation continues and spreads as many seize the considerable opportunities unlocked. This leads to a virtuous cycle of growth but this process is very turbulent. Economic and political reforms are expected to work, in the sense of improving societies' ability to create wealth for their members. Fast economic growth is sustained in the develop- ing countries while new priorities and life- styles are established in mature economies. As a result, business is stretched with an environment of relentless competition and innovation. High demand and supply of energy is required to fuel this growth. The poor countries gradually claim a larger role on the world's economic and political stage. Bonicodes In Barricades, liberalisation is resisted and restricted because people fear they might lose what they value most - power, jobs, autonomy, religious traditions and cultural identities. This creates a world of regional, economic, cultural and religious division, in which international business cannot operate so easily. There is increasing divergence berween rich and poor economies, as many poor countries become marginalised, partly due to the lack of foreign investment In the developed world, a number of non-governmental organisations, with diverse interests, increasingly cause energy to be regarded as something bad (except for raising taxes) and to be used sparingly, leading to an unfavourable investment climate in this sector. In the Barricades scenario, a new crisis in the Middle East gives govemments the opportunity to implement drastic and irreversible measures, heavily taxing and regulating the use of energy. Economic growth & energy The difference in economic growth patterns between these two scenarios leads, by 2020, to two very different pictures of the world when expressed in gross domestic product per capita (GDP/capita, Figure 4) Under Barricades, economic growth rate in developing countries remains at some three percent per annum, similar to the 1980s. By 2020, almost 90 percent of the world population - some 8 billion people by then - have low incomes, and thus no access to basic amenities (water, electricity etc.) while the remaining 10 percent is split evenly between middle and high income. l2 Brnrn Sxrrr, JeN-Mrn rces

By contrast, in New Frontiers, liberalisation leads to growth rates of five to six percent in non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries similar to those of the 1960s. By 2020, more thanhalf of the world's population enjoy 'middle' incomes, with low incomes being reduced to some 40 percent. As a result of this wider economic development and better education, population growth begins to slow down. For developing countries, the difference in the rate of economic development leads to contrasting energy demand between Barricades and New Frontiers. In Barricades, energy demand in the less developed countries (LDCs) - excluding restructuring economies - grows at an average of three percent per annum over the next 30 years. Improved energy use is assumed to be achieved, both through better technologies and through market related rather than subsidised energy pricing which in turn, is accelerated by privatisation of energy and electricity industries. In New Frontiers, by 2020, developing countries in South East Asia, including China, will have reached similarpercapitalevels of energyuseto thatof Italy in 1960. In spite of improvements in energy efficiency which are assumed to occur, the supply challenge to satisfy this demand is considerable. New Frontiers Energy supply Oil and gas will remain the main engine of growth although coal still has a future in New Frontiers. Its share is declining in the OECD countries, but it remains an important cheap, indigenous resource in many parts of the de- veloping world. In many countries, public sentiment and market economics continue to be against nuclear and its share declines. In the OECD countries, gas steadily in- creases its share of energy supply with an additional capacity of 4.5 million barrels oil equivalent per day (boe/d) needed by 2020. Its competitive position relative to coal and oil is strongly enhanced by the efficiency and clean- liness of its use in combined cycle power generation technology, supported by a solid resource base. Undeveloped gas reseryes, are however, increasingly distant from markets. Supplying them at a reasonable price will only be possible by taking a long term view of market stability and technology development. There will also be even greater opportunities for creating new gas markets in developing countries with sufficient domestic resources and this may lead to an increase of 25 million boe/d. But perhaps the most formidable challenge in New Frontiers is the supply of liquid fuel. For LDCs only an additional capacity of 40 million barrels will have to be developed between now and 2020. Compared with current production levels, this corresponds to five Saudi Arabias or eight North Seas of new production capacity. This will require a major long term mobilisation of the industry's manpower and technology in order to fuel the growth of today's poor countries. World cdr populcttion In this world, there will be millions of new motorists in developing countries enjoying the benefit of mobility and for whom transport fuel has to be provided. The total demand for liquid fuels could reach 100 million b ldby 2020. To meet such demand, conventional crude production will have to be pushed ro its fullpotential and supplementedby liquidfuels derivedfromheavy oil and gas to liquids conversion. So how can this challenge be met? l3Brnre Sxsr.r., Jeu-Mrn rccs

Meeting energy demond The first difficulty to be overcome is the short term situation facing the oil industry, namely: j overcapacity I price volatility 3 with more potential for prices to go downwards than upwards. With the eventual return of Iraq to the market, there is ample capacity for the next decade. During this turbulent period, the industry is pushed to improve its robustness to low prices. Operating and developing costs are reduced while low cost areas form an increasing share of the companies' portfolio of assets. Eventually, early in the next century, this capacity surplus disappears as the virtuous cycle of economic development inherent in new frontiers drives demand up, especialty in the Far East and Latin America (Figure 9). A morerelaxed state of affairs in theMiddleEastgreatly decreases the riskof market disruption and helps to restore confidence in oil. The development of considerable reserves produceable at low costs compared to revenues allows this growth dynamic to continue for a number of years. Of course countries with less prolific or more costly resources will also wish to contribute, the lower their production cost, the more they will be able to do so. Producing companies and governments can both contribute to making new supplies competitive.Companies can do this by way of cost-cutting technology, and governments by showing restraint in taxation and regulation of the industry. To sustain acceptable reseryes/ production ratios during the later part of this scenario, while providing energy at an acceptable price, the industry will be faced with the task of tackling the more costly part of its resource portfolio, namely: j frontier or heavy oil: I long distance gas; and j conversion from gas to liquids. This could well require a modest increase in oil price, but if prices are allowed to rise too high, the competitive position of oil fuels will be eroded compared with alternative energy supplies, and they will lose their place in the market. New technology will play a key role in meeting the challenge of increasing oil and gas demand. Nurturing a climate where taking a long term view on R & D and investment is possible would give the oil and gas industry the opportunity to bring these difficult resources to market at a competitive price consistent with an appropriate return. Again, this is a task in which both governments and industry need to work together toward similar goals. Far East (excl. China) 6.7y\" Technology developmenl China 3.3\"k 0.9% Major strides have been made in the develop- Latin America 3.O North America 5.7% ment of technology and management capabil- 0.7\"k ity of the oil companies, particularly over the Middle East last 10 years. Fields are being found with lndian Subcontinent three-dimensional seismic acquisitioning, Central and Western Europe processing and interpretation techniques that did not exist only a few years ago. The ability Near East to profitably develop fields now spans a much .lapan wider range of conditions that was believed possible 10 years ago. Former Soviet Union Particularly in an offshore environment, the need to reduce costs is an ever present driving force. For instance over the last 10 years, the capacity cost ofTroll, offshore Nor- way, has decreased at a rate of seven percent per annum in real terms since the conceptual design which led to its declaration of commer- ciality in 1983. This applies to not only capital project costs but equally to operating costs, through- l4 Benrn Sxru., Jen-Mrn rccs

outfield life which have been loweredby concen- Sustalned grourth scenario trating onreliability and maintainability of equip- exajoules ment and reduction if not elimination of opera- 1 500 tional personnel offshore. Oil companies together fl Surorise with their supporting contractor industries have ffi Geo/Ocean & Solar achieved lower overall costs and accelerated I New Biomass project implementation through innovative con- tr Wind tractual and management arrangements. & Nuclear I Hydro Therefore, the oil and gas industries, given I Cas the right conditions are well positioned to de- I oil & NCLS velop reserves to meet even the demand of the E Coal New Frontiers world. But how will energy from ! Trad Biomass renewable sources impact the market? 1860 r880 1900 1920 1940 r960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Renewoble energy exa = I0rs Improvements in productivity are not limited to the oil industry. Significant cost reductions have been achieved and will continue to be pursued in renewable energy sources, such as: l biomass gasification j wind power and j photovoltaics. For instance,wind power generation has achieved a 10 percent per annum cost reduction over the last 15 years. This technology is not fully comparable with conventional power generation sources, as it is not always readily available. Nevertheless it has found a niche where it is commercially competitive in selected areas of the USA and Western Europe, Another example is that of power generation using biomass. Originally a side activity to paper and wood product industries, it is anticipated that growth will be sustained as cofiring with coal and integrated gasification with advanced turbine systems develop. New Frontiers is an environment of technological innovation which is quite favourable to the development of renewable energy, and there may be other commercially competitive technologies just over the horizon. Sustoined growlh scenorio As they progress along their learning curve; first capturing niche markets and then gradually expanding, new energy sources may well become commercially competitve over the next few decades and start to be visible by around 2020. This would allow growth in energy supplies to be sustained at the time when the contribution from fossil fuel reaches a plateau. It is not necessary for this arguement , to determine which renewable technology has the best prospects. Technologies will compete but market will decide. A notional attempt has been made to illustrate how the future energy supply could look like beyond 2020 (Figure 12). This mix is however very likely to be more diversified following a long established historical pattern.With this perspective in mind, theideaof \"savinghydrocarbons forfuture generations\" is perhaps unduly conservative. It is also worth noting that this scenario means that the present carbon dioxide emitting energy forms - emissions from which would peak at 10 gigatonnes per yearby 2040 -would be replaced by non-carbon dioxide ones. This has powerful implications for the climate change debate, which need to be explored more carefully and in greater detail. There is an exciting challenge lying ahead: reaching New Frontiers following a path which makes economic sense.The industry has the capabillity and is prepared to tackle this task, as it has demonstrated through past and recent achievements. Policy makers must also create the market conditions allowing this to happen. Brnrn Sxnl, JrH-Mm rccs I5

Borricades The alternative is a world of supply shortages and price upsets which would cause oil, and perhaps even gas, to be discredited in the eyes of consumers and governments. Like France in the late seventies, where two waves of investment in nuclear electricity followed the two oil price shocks , many will seek national or regional solutions to try to manage without oil and gas. This retreat behind energy barricades is not a healthy solution for the national economies of either oil producing or consuming countries. Energy taxotion In Barricades, the use of energy willbecome heavily taxed andregulated sometimes to the benefit of sub- economic conservation measures or immature and costly alternative energy technologies. This would lead to a premature decline of the oil and gas industry. In Barricades, high cost oil and gas will remain in the ground, as some coal resources already do. Energy in the form of petroleum products is a major Hydrocarbons taxation Percentage of gasoline retail price contributor to mankind's development - heat, mechani- Percentage of gross profit cal power, mobility - and for those aspiring to basic comfort it opens the prospect of clean water, easily cooked food and a warmer (or cooler) house as well as the freedom to travel. Yet, in many countries, the Norway production and use of energy is heavily taxed (Figure 15), hampering economic activities fromblossoming to Malaysia their full potential, with their related creation ofjobs and wealth. UK The world is in the midst of revolutionary change, whose outcome is uncertain. Part of that uncertainty has USA to do not just with events but with human attitudes and Argentina reactions towards these events. Societies can react with hope and seize the opportunities of New Frontiers, or as 100 50 the Barricades scenario describes, they can react with fear and try to erect barriers to liberalisation to protect Upstream what they value. Of course in any scenario people will react in both ways - but which reaction will dominate? In New Frontiers, high economic growth leads to a substantial rapid increase in energy demand, especially in developing countries. This is largely supplied by oil and gas and coal, for which resources are believed to be adequate, but depend on political stability and increasingly complex technology for their supply. All energy forms are in demand including renewables. Environmental concerns are resolved through market instruments leading to decreases in global energy intensity. In Barricades on the other hand, demand growth is much slower and localised, some countries and regions being more successful than others. Environmental problems are resolved by government regulation and global warming concerns lead to somb revival of nuclear power. NewFrontiers is a success story forthe developing nations, inBarricades they scarely improve their position compared to today. I SfpC, l,ondon. Peter Kosslet is fhe Royol Dutch/Shell Group Planning Coordinofor ond o direcfor of Shell lnternofionol Petroleum Compony in London. I6 Brnrra Snar, JN-Men rccs

TWINKLE, TWINKLE LITTLE STAR by Dominic Abrohom I- o, centuries, the heavenly stars have fascinated man so that many dedicate much of their lives Iop: Plonet Soturn F ,o studying them. Since then, the study of the celestial frontier or Astronomy has become a never folls to inspire owe when first f science. History has revealed that between 3,500 BC - 700 BC, the Egyptians, Chinese and Indians spotled through o viewed and studied the stars. Ancient Egyptians were believed to have been guided by the position of telescope. Boltom: the planets and star clusters when building the great pyramids of Egypt or in the prediction of events. A totql solor eclipse os expected over Planetary positions and astronomy charts contributed vastly to the creation of the modern calender. West Moloysio on In England, Stonehenge has baffled scientists and is said to have been an observatory for the ancient 24 Ociober 'l995. stargazers. Thus, there exists strong evidence that since the earth's creation, man has dared \"to boldly go where no man has been before\" - in mind, body and in spirit. Looi Keng Kok has been dreaming about the stars since he was a schoolboy. PuzzLed by the existence of the moon and the stars , his burning desire was to view them through telescopes. This was the closest thing to getting there. A qualified mechanical engineer, Looi gradu- ated from the University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand in1912. He then worked in Singapore for a few years. Returning to Malaysia, he joined the Standards Institute of Research in Malaysia (SIRIM) for a year prior to joining Carrier International's manufacturing division for 15 years. The call of Astronomy was so strong that Looi quit his hectic nine to five office schedule. In 1988, with fifty thousand ringgit in his pocket, the star- gazer built up contacts in the industry and started his own company - Infinity In Focus, importing aad supplying astronomy equipment such as telescopes. Today, Looi is very actively involved in the Selangor Branch of the Malaysian Nature Society (MNS) as its Astronomy Group coordinator. Looi and his MNS panners are committed to space explo- ration, photography and research. Almost all of their activities are centred on creating awareness and appreciation of the stars among Malaysians. The amateur's personal collection of photo- graphs of Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Moon, Pluto and the M31 Andromeda Galaxy which was taken with an 8- inch Schmidt camera show the planets and galaxies in detail. It also shows the man's interest and dedica- Brnrm Snru., Jlr.r-Mrn tccs 17

tion to his craft. He actually has a slide of the moon with the 'Voyager' close to it! There is a deep sense of satisfaction in Looi's tone ofvoice and gestures as he speaks about the old days when local shops would stock only toy telescopes. ..I was frustrated because they were merely toys. So I went in search of the real thing,\" he remembers. Astronomy draws out the child in him and characterises an urgent sense of innocence and desire to study God's creation. It is easy to see that Looi and Astronomy are inseparable' Looi explains, \"Basically there are two types oftelescopes - refractor and reflector telescopes - each employing a different optical system.\" Refractors use a lens, or objective, to collect light; the objective is designed so that light is refracted, or bent, to a focus. Raflectors use a mirror to collect light; the special concave shape reflects the light back up the tube to a small secondary mirror, or flat, mounted along the central axis of the telescope tube which reflects the light to a focal point. The secondary mirror cuts out some of the incoming light, although not enough to cause a serious loss of image brightness. For astronomical purposes, the reflecting telescope is used as it allows different viewing angles. Looi thinks that the major problem with telescopes is that most of them are unsuitable for use because of their construction. To solve the problem of unsuitable mounts, Looi imports telescopes made in the United States and Japan. He wondeis why locals have the notion that telescopes are expensive. \"Is it because only scientists Rghfr The Triffid seem to use telescoPes?\" Nebulo is o Grey-haired Looi recalls the days when friends brought him cheap telescopes purchased at \"pasar mysterious swirl of stors ond celestiol *ala*si' and he spent hours modifying them and their mounts to suit local conditions. He emphasises that telescopes are not privy to the wealthy alone - ignorance about their prices has created a colours. Bottom: Mr Looi misunderstanding among enthusiasts' .,Reasonably good and beginners' telescopes are relatively affordable.Those with a four-and-a-half Keng Kok Looi. These telescopes can be used for viewingplanets like (bespectocled,for itnhcehmaopoenrtuorreJ\"uopritteirba\"nlod *caRnMla2s,t0f0o0r \"y,esaaryss provided they have good tracking mounts. Looi's computer right) tqking o controlledtelescopes costanythingbetweenRM5,000toRM20,000depending onthe aperture size- The queue telescope at the National Planetarium in Kuala Lumpur is worth RM100,000. of students Foi those having less than RM1,000 to spend on stargazing, Looi recommends using a pair of through o stellor binoculars which can be used to view the comets and shooting stars. After publicising information on oppreciotion prices, the demand for telescopes began climbing slowly. According to Looi, he has sold about six session on o hundred telescopes in Malaysia. If demand is slow, it is because Astronomy as a subject is new to many storry nighi. E .i;E-:,1 l8 Brnrm Sneu, JaN-Men tcas

@ Gompanies in Malaysia *Bwl r[$rNo.1 April,lsss PP 6893/3/94 NK RAP! .,?1=srKBFuVPP GROWTNG OLDERAND (EATn{G) SMARTER PENINGKATAN USIA DAN PEMAKANAN YANG BIJAK ! et us face it : Even though we do not look ll adapi keadaan ini : Walaupun kita tidak I I mahu dimakan usia, ianya iiaax dapat l-forward to aging, it's inevitable. You might think dielakkan. Anda mungkin berpendapat bahawa that getting old means having chronic illnesses, losing strength and coordination, and being unable peningkatan usia tua bermakna menghadapi to function independantly. But you can postpone and even avoid many of the negative aspects of masalah penyakit yang kronik, hilang kekuatan dan aging by taking care of your body throughout your .life. This means staying active and eating the right upaya, serta tidak mampu berdikari. Walaupun food. begitu, anda boleh melengahkan ataupun As you age, your body goes through changes in coordination and reaction time, and your organ menjauhi kesan-kesan negatif usia tua melatui functions and metabolism generally slow down. lf you are otherwise healthy, these changes seem pengamalan cara hidup yang sihat iaitu aktif dan small and insignificant. But even small changes can affect your nutrition need5. Below are some mengambil makanan yang betul. tips to help you recognise how your nutrition needs may change as you age. Peningkatan usia menyebabkan badan anda Changing times berubah upaya dan tindak balas masa, serta The most critical change that occurs with age is a metabolisma dan fungsi organ bertambah loss of muscle mass. The loss is more dramatic in men, but after women go through menopause, perlahan. Jika anda sememangnya sihat, their loss can also be significant. Muscle tissue is the active tissue of your body. The more muscle perubahan ini memberikan kesan kecildan tidak you have, the more energy you need, and the penting. Walaupun begitu perubahan yang kecil boleh mempengaruhi keperluan makanan anda. Di bawah adalah beberapa tip bagi membantu anda mengetahui perubahan keperluan makanan anda mengikut perubahan usia. Perubahan masa ffffiiF*f;rALT*{ Perubahan yang paling kritikal wffi€ffi be rlaku be rsam a pe n in g katan usia ialah kehilangan otot tubuh.

more calories you burn. As you lose muscle tissue, Perubahan ini tebih ielas berlaku pada lelaki' Bagi you need fewer calories, so you generally eat less. wanita, perubahan ini lebih ielas selepas mereka metatui keadaan putus haid. Tisu otot merupakan Over the decades of adult life, you will have a tisu aktif datam badan. Lebih banyak otot yang general decrease in physical activity, usually combined with a decrease in calories. The fewer anda ada, lebih banyak tenaga yang anda calories that you eat, the fewer nutrients you will pertukan dan lebih banyak kalori yang anda receive through Your diet. 'bakar'. Semasa anda kehilangan tisu otot, anda Loss of muscle tissue does not have to be part memerlukan kurang kaloridan amnya anda makan of aging - it is the result of an increasingly inactive sedikit. lifestyle. People who maintain a physically active life do not lose as much muscle as those who are Metalui beberapa dekad usia dewasa anda, inactive. Even frail 9O-year-olds have been able to gain strength and walk independantly after increas- anda akan mengalami pengurangan am dalam ing their muscle size and tone with weight training' By staying stronger you will be more likely to eat aktivitifizikal dan iuga pengurangan kalori. Lebih kurang kaloriyang anda ambil lebih kurang zat better. Another cause of nutrition problems may be makanan yang anda dapat melalui diet anda' your teeth. lf eating is painful or if you have ill fitting Kehitangan tisu otot tidak semestinya berupa dentures, you may be limiting your diet. lf your diet is compromised, so is your health. lf you wear skeebraanhaagciaanradhairdipuapdyaapnegnkinugraknagtaankutisf i.a - ia adalah dentures, please have them checked over time. Mereka Vitamin vitalitY yang mengekatkan keaktifan fizikal tidak Unless retired, most older people do not spend as kehitangan banyak tisu otot berbanding dengan much time outside as they once did. This lack of healthy exposure, combined with a natural .mereka yang tidak aktif Seseorang yang berusia decrease in your body's ability to make its own vitamin D, can make you more dependant on your 90 tahun mampu mengumpul kekuatan dan bergerak sendiri setelah meningkatkan saiz serta bentuk otot melatui latihan angkat berat. Dengan mengekalkan kesihatan anda boleh makan dengan lebih sempurna. Masalah lain mengenai pemakanan ialah gigi anda. Jika makan sesuatu merupakan perkara yang tidak selesa atau anda mempunyai masalah penyesuaian gigi palsu, anda akan menghadkan pemakanan anda. Jika diet anda diolah, begitu iuga kesihatan anda. Bincang dengan doktor gigi anda mengenai masalah ini. [rv\"slr*;,llG Pengambilan vitamin Metainkan Pesara, kebanYakan golongan tua tidak banYak menghabiskan masa di luar sePerti yang tetah mereka lakukan dahulu. Kekurangan Pendedahan kePada io

aHt!o CARF TO j (- Jtaelf,\\,'? / **t r\"rp'7 ,e diet to get enough of it. Vitamin D is essential for cara hidup sihat dan kekurangan keupayaan absorbing calcium. Conveniently, many milk semulajadi badan menghasilkan vitamin D products which are great sources of calcium, are menyebabkan anda lebih bergantung kepada diet fortified with Vitamin D. Have at least two servings anda untuk mendapatkan vitamin D. Vitamin D of them everyday. adalah penting untuk menyerap kalsium. Kebanyakan makanan hasil tenusu merupakan The absorption of folic acid, calcium, iron and sumber kepada kalsium yang diperkuat dengan vitamin 812 depends on the acid in your stomach. As many as 40o/\" of 80-year-olds lose the ability to vitamin D. Kita memerlukan sekurang-kurangnya secrete enough stomach acid to fully absorb these nutrients. This condition is called atrophic gastritis. dua kali sehari makanan hasil tenusu. lf you think you may be suffering from this, ask Penyerapan asid folik, kalsium, zat besi dan your doctor about taking vitamin supplements. vitamin 812 bergantung kepada asid dalam perut Are antioxidants the answer? anda. Hampir 40 % daripada golongan berusia 80 Studies are popping up everyday about whether tahun kehilangan upaya bagi perut mereka antioxidants can slow the aging process. As part of menyerap zat yang dinyatakan tadi. Keadaan ini its normalfunctioning, your body releases toxins digelar gastrik atropik. Jika anda fikir anda called free redicals. These free radicals damage your cells (a process called oxidation), which is menghidapinya, sila berhubung dengan doktor thought to lead to heart disease, cancer and other anda mengenai pengambilan vitamin tambahan. diseases. Adakah antioxidant jawapannya ? Antioxidants are your body's natural defense mechanism against free radicals. You can get Kajian sentiasa dilakukan bagi mengetahui antioxidants - vitamins C and E, betacarotene, and samada antioxidant boleh memperlahankan the mineral selenium - through your diet. lf the proses ketuaan. Sebagai sebahagian daripada normal level of antioxidants in your diet is low, you fungsi biasanya, badan anda mengeluarkan toksin may be more susceptible to health problems. yang digelar radikal bebas. Radikal bebas ini merosakkan sel anda (proses yang dipanggil While the research is very promising, there oxida)yang membawa kepada masalah sakit is no consensus on how much of these antioxi- jantung, barah dan sakit-sakit lain. dants you should have or whether you need supplements. The healthiest approach is to make Antioxidant meru pakan daya tahanan sure that you eat plenty of fresh fruits and vegeta- semulajadi diri anda bagi melawan radikal bebas. bles that are rich in vitamin C and betacarotene, Antioxidant - vitamin C dan E, betacarotene dan such as berries, citrus fruits and dark green and zat galian silinium - boleh didapati melalui diet yellow vegetables. anda. Jika tahap antioxidant dalam diet anda adalah rendah , anda lebih mudah menghadapi masalah kesihatan. Sementara kajian mengenainya dijalankan,

The best sources of vitamin E are vegetable tidak ada tagi iimak mengenaiiumlah antioxidant oils, wheatgerm, nuts and seeds. Seafoods and yang diperlukan ataupun kita memerlukan whole grains are good sources of selenium. Again, tambahan. Cara yang lebih baik ialah if you think you are not getting enough antioxidants memastikan anda memakan lebih banyak buah through your diet, talk to your doctor about taking dan sayuran segar yang kaya dengan vitamin C supplements. dan betacarotene seperti buah beri, sitrus dan sayuran bewarna hiiau pekat serta kuning' Keep fluids flowing Sumber utama vitamin E ialah minyak sayuran, Drinking enough fluid is important for everyone, germa gandum, kacang dan biiirin. Makanan laut regard.less of age. But becoming dehydrated can dan biji-bijian sepenuhnya adalah sumber utama cause more critical problems if you are in your silinium. Sekiranya anda merasakan kekurangan golden years. Since the functioning of organ antioxidant, sila iumpa doktor anda mengenai systems slows down a bit with age, it willtake your pengambilan tambahan. body longer to get rid of toxins. Meneruskan bendalir mengalir lf you do not drink enough fluid, your blood volume decreases and the toxins become more Mengambil minuman yang cukup adalah penting concentrated in the bloodstream. Many cases of bagi setiap orang, tidak kira umurnya. dizziness and disorientation in the elderly are due Kekurangan air dalam badan boleh membawa to dehydration. This is particularly critical if you masalah yang kritikal, terutamanya semasa anda take any medications. Even a normal dose can berada di umur keemasan. Memandangkan become toxic if you are slightly dehydrated. fungsi sistem organ agak perlahan apabila anda berusia, ia akan menyebabkan tubuh anda To avoid these problems, drink at least eight mengambil masa yang lama untuk membuang cups of fluid every day, not counting beverages that contain caffeine. Always be sure to drink a cup toksin. of water before and after exercise' And if you are Jika anda tidak mengambil minuman yang active in the heat, you need to drink even more. secukupnya, iumtah darah akan berkurangan dan ao toksin akan terkumpul pada pembuluh darah. Kebanyakan kes pening dan disorentasi pada umur tua adalah kerana masalah penyahhidratan. lni menjadi semakin kritikal sekiranya anda mengambil ubat. Wataupun sukatan ubat biasa, ia boleh menjaditoksik sekiranya anda agak dinyahhidratkan. Untuk mengatasi masalah ini, minum sekurang-kurangnya lapan cawan sehari tidak termasuk minuman yang mengandungi kafeina. Pastikan anda meminum segelas air sebelum dan selepas senaman. Jika anda aktif di bawah cahaya matahari, anda perlu minum lebih banyak air.

O SAFETYWATcH sLIPPENY { €'zr Wr+EN tI , GKAH KA WET. *'*, - rlr, I t (<* r= f-l EALLHuzlffiffi f alts from heights aeeOuhttoi.'most deaths and lterkjaetpuahdadkaeribteanmypaakat ntinkgegmi mateiarnupdaakannkepcuendcearaan ! serious injuries in industry. Traditionally, body parah dalam industri\" Kebiasannya, tali p!nggang belts and lanyards are used to stop falls. However, most people working at heights resist using this badan dan lanyard digunakan bagi mengelak protection for several reasons. One reason is that kejatuhan. Walau bagaimanapun, kebanyakan they are concerned about injuries sustained by the pekerja di tempat tinggi enggan menggunakan concentrated forces caused by body belts them- peralatan ini atas beberapa sebab. Satah satu selves. darinya ialah khuatir {entang kecederaan yang disebabkan oleh tali pinggang badan itu sendiri\" It is crucial to indentify all tall hazards. Do this Jangan hanya berharap kepada peralatan by conducting walk-around inspections and ask perlindungan peribadi. Perlindungan peribadi employees who traditionally work at heights about hanyatah sebagai langkah terakhir. Cara their hazards. terbaik menghindar dari terjatuh iatah dengan mengamalkan langkah-tangkah Where feasible, eliminate the hazard. Bring the kawalan berikut: work to floor level. By bringing valves, oilers and controls down to floor level, no one will need to l. Membasmi bahaya climb to them to gain access. Where eliminating the hazard is not feasible, explore engineering 2, Buang ciri-ciri yang membahayakan 3.' Lelakkan tanda amaran dan papan tanda options. lnstall stairways or guarded work plat- 4, Latih kakitangan mengenai kesedaran forms. Although employees must still work at heights, the work space is still accessible and they tentang bahaya 5, Gunakan peralatan perlindungan peribadi Adalah penting bagi rnenEenalpasti senua bahaya kejatuhan. Lakukan ini dengan mengadakan tinjauan dan menanya kakitanEan yang kebiasaannva keria ditempat tinggi mengenai risiko berada cli tempat tinggi. Di mana baleh, basrni bahaya tcrlatuh\" Lakukan kerja di kawasan iantai. Dertgan membawa injap, benda berminyak s*rta aiat

are passively protected all the time. kawalan ke aras lantai, kakitangan tidak peilu lagi Warnings and signs are usefulwhere a new memanjat ke peralatan ini. Ditempat di mana pembasmian bahaya tidak boleh dilaksanakan, hazard occurs. But do not rely on signs as a long- gunakan pilihan keiuruteraan. Letakkan tangga term solution. Employees become accustomed to atau ptatfom kawalan keria. Walaupun mereka terpaksa bekeria di tempat tinggi, namun tempat them and the signs lose their effect. kerja mereka adalah sesuai dan mereka sentiasa Training makes a difference dilindungi. Tanda amaran dan papan tanda amat berguna Training is essentialto a comprehensive fall hazard control programme. This training must go beyond terutama semasa bahaya baru uiud. Tetapiiangan 'how to use personal protective equipment'. Health terlatu bergantung kepada papan tanda untuk and safety personnel should learn to identify penyetesaian iangka paniang. Kakitangan akan hazards, conduct employee surveys, audits and biasa dengannya dan papan tanda berkenaan determine an overall facility policy and plan' Also, train engineers how to calculate structural loads akan kurang berkesan. and determine appropriate achorage points. Place emphasis on designing fall-hazard controls' In- Latihan menianiikan faedah struct supervisors on the facility's fall-hazard control policy and their responsibilities for ensuring Latihan adalah mustahak dalam melengkapkan that their employees are protected. program kawalan risiko keiatuhan yang komprehensif. Latihan perlu meniangkau lebih dari Employees whose jobs reQuire a lot of climbing setakat mengenali dan mengguna peralatan must also be trained on the policy, the proper perlindungan peribadi. Pegawai kesihatan dan selection and use of personal protective equipment keselamatan perlu tahu mengenal pasti bahaya, and the proper selection of anchorage points. mengendalikan kaiian kakitangan dan menentukan Climbing safety should also be part of the instruc- polisi dan petan fasiliti keseluruhan. Di samping itu, tatih jurutera mengenai pengiraan beban struktur dan menentukan tempat-tempat pergantungan yang sesuai. Berikan penekanan kepada perancangan kawalan bahaya keiatuhan. Maktumkan kepada penyelia mengenai polisi kawalan bahaya keiatuhan serta tanggungiawab mereka bagi memastikan kakitangan mereka dilindungi. Kakitangan yang sentiasa perlu berada di tempat tinggi iuga perlu dilatih mengenai polisi, pemilihan dan penggunan peralatan perlindungan peribadi serta pemilihan tempat-tempat pergantungan yang sesuai. Keselamatan memanjat pertu meniadibahagian penting dalam proses tatihan. Tuniukkan kepada mereka bagai m ana menyel am atkan Peke ri a ditempat tinggi serta Emtr3'

te tions. Show them how to rescue incapacitated bagaimana mengosongkan bangunan. Latihan workers from heights and how to evacuate the perlu merangkumi penggunaan sebenar kesemua premises. Training should include hands-on use of komponen polisi kawalan bahaya kejatuhan. all components of the fall-hazard control policy. Langkah terakhir ialah menggunakan peralatan The final step is to use personal protective perlindungan peribadi. Bagi setiap situasi tahanan equipment. For fall arrest situations, a full body kejatuhan, adalah dicadangkan agar badan diikat harness is recommended. Body belts should be sepenuhnya. Tali pinggang badan perlu dihadkan limited to use as a restraint device. Ensure that all penggunaan sebagai alat penghalang. pastikan components of the system are compatible. A setiap peralatan sistem berkenaan bersesuaian. competent person must inspect equipment at Seseorang yang cekap perlu memeriksa peralatan periodic intervals and before actual use. secara berjadual dan sebelum setiap penggunaan. Although eliminating fall hazards or engineer- ing them out has a higher initial cost, both are cost- Sungguhpun membasmi ataupun mengatasi effective in the long run. Personal protective bahaya kejatuhan dari tempat tinggi memerlukan equipment is not cheap and when you add in the perbelanjaan permulaan yang tinggi, namun untuk cost for structural surveys, evacuation and rescue jangka waktu panjang ia adalah sesuatu yang planning, equipment maintenance and inspection, menguntungkan. Peralatan perlindungan peribadi it becomes easier to build a business case for the best solutions. adalah mahal dan sekiranya diambil kira kos kajian struktur, perancangan menyelamat dan memindah, Not all fall hazards can be designed out. ln pemeriksaan serta penyelengaraan peralatan , ia some situations, the right personal protective adalah agak mudah untuk menentukan jalan mana yang paling berfaedah. equipment and proper training can best save lives. Tidak semua bahaya kejatuhan boleh diatasi. Dalam beberapa keadaan, peralatan pertindungan peribadi dan latihan yang betuladalah yang terbaik u ntuk menyelamatkan nyawa. The first step toward actively preventing injuries is to recognise potential hazards. Do any of these situations look familiar? See answer on the last page. ir

ffi ENVTRoNMENTwATcH INDUSTRI /\\ round the woild the problem of disposing of i seturuh dunia, masalah pembuangan sisa f.\\industrial waste is assuming greater propor- industri semakin runcing. Keseciaran nengenai alarn sekitar yang melanda dunia tidak tions. The environmental awareness that has tagi bertotak ansur mengenai penyeiesaian yang engulled the planet will no longer tolerate inad- equate solutions to the problem, such as burying it tidak cekap bagi menyelesaikan masalah in the ground, dumping it in the sea or rivers, or berkenaan, seperti menanannya di dalam tanah,

exporting it to the poorer developing countries. membuangnya ke laut dan sungai atau As an emerging industrial nation, Malaysia has mengeksportnya ke negara-negara miskin. taken a major and responsible step forward by Sebagai negara industri yang baru muncul, introducing regulations to control the generation, Malaysia telah mengambil langkah utama dan transport and disposal of industrialwaste, also bertanggungjawab dengan memperkenatkan known as \"scheduled waste' under the Environ- peraturan bagi mengawal penjanaan, mental Quality Act.This is part of the government's pengangkutan dan pelupusan sisa industri yang long-term strategy to provide substantial improve- turut dikenali sebagai \"sisa terjadual\" di bawah ments in the quality of human life, and to protect Akta KualitiAlam Sekitar. lni merupakan the environment from industrial pollution. sebahagian daripada strategi jangka panjang kerajaan bagi meningkatkan kualiti kehidupan Most manufacturing industries have set up manusia dan melindungi alam sekitar daripada waste water treatment plants which cater for partial pencemaran industri. treatment. The residue will still require further downstream treatment for eventual safe disposal. Kebanyakan industri pembuatan telah menyediakan loji rawatan air yang menyediakan Untilthe country's designated disposal site separuh rawatan. Sisa rawatan masih lagi complete with treatment and safe disposal facilities memerlukan rawatan hiliran untuk menjadikannya is ready, industries may still have to store industrial sisa buangan yang selamat. waste in their own compounds. There is, however, little or no space for industry to store industrial Memandangkan ketiadaan loji pembuangan waste such as alkalis, spent solvents, heavy industri yang lengkap dengan rawatan serta metals and substances such as arsenic and kemudahan pembuangan sisa di negara ini, pihak cyanide. industri terpaksa menyimpan sisa industri mereka ditempat mereka sendiri. Namun begitu, industri The build-up of waste over the years has menghadapi masalah mencari tempat untuk reached alarming proportions, imposing risks not menyimpan sisa industri seperti alkali, pelarut only on companies concerned but also on residen- tial communities and the general public at large. terpakai, logam berat dan bahan-bahan seperti lnstances of illegal and indiscriminate disposal of arsenik dan sianida. waste mixed with domestic waste has also become common. Pertambahan sisa industri sejak beberapa As a result, the nation's valuable resources tahun kebelakangan ini telah mencapaitahap such as water, vegetation and soil are seriously threatened. Learning from the unfortunate experi- yang mencemaskan. Risiko bukan sahaja ences of some countries where uncontrolled ditanggung oleh syarikat berkenaan tetapi juga disposal of industrialwaste has caused suffering is oleh penduduk sekitar dan juga masyarakat important: for example, the mercury poisoning at secara keseluruhannya. Kejadian pembuangan Minamata Bay, Japan. secara haram sisa industri yang dicampur dengan Scheduled waste regulations have been sisa rumah tangga merupakan satu perkara biasa. introduced, but critical to their effectiveness is the Akibatnya sumber negara seperti air, tumbuh- tumbuhan dan tanah terjejas. Kita perlu mempelajari nasib malang yang menimpa beberapa negara di mana berlakunya pembuangan

need for centres to which industrialwaste may be sisa industri yang tidak terkawal, di mana akhirnya sent to be neutralised and properly disposed of. menyebabkan masalah seperti keracunan merkuri di Teluk Minamata, JePun. Dangers of i ndustrial waste dumping Peraturan mengenai sisa teriadual telah Municipal landfill sites are not designed for indus- diperkenalkan, tetapi yang paling penting sekali trial waste. lllegal dumping at these sites may pose ialah keperluan mengadakan sebuah pusat di mana sisa industri boleh dihantar untuk the following dangers: dilupuskan. j Threat to pollution of ground and surface water' Bahaya lambakan sisa industri a Risk of fires. Tapak tambah tanah perbandaran tidak direka I Pollution of the air with germs or gases. untuk sisa industri. Pernbuangan secara haram di tempat ini akan menyebabkan ancaman bahaya This threat and uncertainty is there for all seperti : Malaysians, particularly where unscrupulous agenis illegally dump industrialwaste in municipal a Pencemaran ke atas air dalam tanah dan landfills, rivers, seas and public sewers. dipermukaan. A waste management system which has earned international recognition for safety advises o Risiko kebakaran. countering these dangers in the following manner: a Pencemaran udara dengan kuman dan gas. lndustrialwaste should be transported from their sources to transfer stations strategically located in Ancaman ini dihadapi oleh semua rakyat Malaysia, various parts of the country.These transfer stations terutamanya di mana terdapat orang yang tidak then have the function of sorting, weighing and bertanggungiawab melambak sisa industri di grading the collected waste, and are equipped with kawasan tambah tanah perbandaran, sungai, laut receivable and storage areas. dan pembentungan awam. Waste will be graded into categories like bulk solids, organic or inorganic waste, oily and liquid

organic waste and so on. They are stored in differ- ent types of containers such as drums, tank containers and pallet tanks.They are then transported from these stations to a waste man- agement centre where before treatment, they are further sampled and tested in the laboratory. The centre should have two main components: the physical-chemical treatment plant and the incinerator. lnorganic waste is to be treated at the physical-chemical plant built to handle material (such as cynide or chro- mium) on a batch basis. Organic waste such as sludge, liquid and oily Sistem pengurusan sisa yang telah menerima waste will be destroyed by incineration in a techni- pengiktirafan antarabangsa untuk keselamatan cally-advanced, high temperature (1 200'C) rotary kiln. menggariskan beberapa perkara untuk mengatasi The incinerator should be equipped to handle ancarnan ini.Sisa industri perlu diangkut dari 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes of waste a year,and sumbernya untuk dipindahkan ke pusat pemindahan yang terletak di beberapa lokasi operate with full safety equipment and shutdown systems. To meet air quality regulations, counter strategik seluruh negara. Pusat ini berfungsi untuk vapour, odour and particulate emissions, the menyisih, menimbang dan menggredkan sisa yang incinerator should be designed to have a sophisti- dikutip, dan pusat ini turut dilengkapkan dengan cated flue gas cleaning system and a filter system. kawasan penerimaan dan penyimpanan. The non-toxic residuals from both the physical- Sisa dikategorikan kepada beberapa kategori chemical plant and the incinerator are then either sent directly to a controlled landfill or are further seperti sisa pukal padu, sisa organik atau bukan stabilised before disposal. The small amounts of leachate, collected from the landfill's drainage organik, sisa organik berair dan berminyak dan system will, if necessary, undergo further treat- berbagai lagi. lanya akan disimpan didalam ment. bekas yang berbeza seperti drum, kontena tangki dan tangki palet. Sisa ini diangkut dari stesen- stesen ini ke pusat pengurusan sisa di mana sebelum rawatan, sisa ini disantpel dan diuji di f makmal. Pusat ini mesti rnempunyai dua komponen utama: loji rawatan fizikal-kimia dan alat pembakar. Sisa bukan organik akan dikendalikan di pusat fizikal-kimia.Sisa organik seperti lumpur, cecair dan sisa minyak akan dilupuskan melalui pembakaran dalam tanur putaran bersuhu tinggi (1200'c). Alat pembakar mesti boleh menampung 20,000 hingga 3A,000 tan sisa setahun dan beroperasi dengan segala peralatan keselamatan dan sistem penutupan. Bagi memenuhi peraturan kualiti udara, mengatasiwap, bau dan emisi debu, alat pembakar mestilah mempunyai sistem penyaring gas dan penuras yang canggih. Baki bahan bukan toksik daripada pusat fizikat- kimia dan pembakar akan dihantar ketapak tambah tanah yang dikawal ataupun distabilkan dilupuskan. Jumlah kecil bahan larut resap yang dikutip daripada sistem pengairan tapak tambah tanah akan menjalani rawatan selanjutnya sekiranya perlu\" 11

:i:ffii Answers to diagram on Sindrom \"NIMBY Ketika menielas kesu karan mencaritaPak Pusat pelupusan dan rawatan sisa industri baru-baru ini, seorang ahli biologi JePun berkata \"setiap tempat meruPakan halaman belakang rumah orang. Dan sesiaPa Yang te rpaksa membuat kePutusan mengenai taPak Pusat berkenaan terPaksa menghadapi sindrom NIMBY (Not in My Back Yard).\" Pihak berkuasa seluruh dunia menyifatkan sindrom ini sebagai sesuatu Yang klasik' la merupakan batu Penghalang di antara penduduk setemPat dan pihak pemaiu. Orang ramaiharus mempunyai iaminan bahawa cara hidup yang normal dan persekitaran yang selamat tidak akan terieias. Mereka harus memahami dan Yakin bahawa pusat rawatan berkenaan adalah maiu dari segi teknikal, rekabentuk dan operasi sefia dikendalikan oleh kakitangan Yang terlatih dan mempunyai kawalan Yang sepenuhnya ke atas oPerasi dan keselamatannYa. XO5O*PE4IMY8OSOfNfKiSXU&AEgIX,\"A:P,RL\"IIrSILMSrPsEIEDIRE.IDNEDTeIITuIEOARRA:TRIETINBICArL.yEYSBAPyD:OASBHNDEOLUTLLNIc'EAoCMIIEp(S0AS5NA-r2RE5IsLIY2rN2R5ME2FA)LT'E,ACCYTRSAITAPI,IEOBISCcEND.OEsSI'HIGAEN'}LIErYBMTSAHRLTOALIYLIASYCIAAO,MIoSPFMAFNAY.IrL'L'NPRsIEOMRAWrmRaITNT, EDNAAMPAPNRSAO-VRAAI HEIGlrts' IVTUST BE PoiBlMTEAD INBYE: EDOIP'AREoSMDNTBHEDE, E64D, 5I1T/eoRMBmE, FOLoDEtuIRNEGPRROISN, T5aIzNOOG&A&.}IYLoWFPTmH' E@AYRSTDIC' I,ESIIEREIN. t2



Iop; A close still. Mention it among certain quarters and you are apt to receive blank stares. view of the Notably,afour-inchtelescopewouldenableonetoview sometwomillionstars.Onselectingagood moon with its dorkspots ond telescope, Looi advises that he personally test each for the quality of optics, image brightness, contrast, how faint the star appears on its screen and most of all, the mounting and supports of the telescope. croters. But the aim is not to purchase any available telescope, set it up and view the skies. Appreciating the Rlghtr A whirl- subject involves studying, reading and understanding the chafis to see how, when, where the stars would pool goloxy, be visible on a given night. In Malaysia, there are a few thousand stargazing enthusiasts says Looi. Oddly, little enthusiasm is aroused by vernacular newspaper repofis about sightings of alien spacecraft so nomed or comets like Shoemaker Levy which crashed into Jupiter last year. becouse of its obvious In order to practise his mathematical skills, Looi devised the first ever planisphere or sky map for formotion, use in the equator. It is available in English and Bahasa Malaysia. The next version would be to feature seems the stuff inspiring spoce it in Chinese as we1l. The planisphere is a pathfinder to the stars and consists of a thick sheet of revolving plastic (like a explorers to\"boldly go vinyl record) that enables even the novice to analyse the true position of the stars. Astronomers are of where no mon the opinion that studying and analysing the heavenly bodies could provide the solutions to Mother hos gone before,..\" Earlh's woes. Does he believe in aliens from outer space? \"Yes\", quips Looi adding \"They may not look like you and me but they can take any form.\" His commitment to Astronomy extends to all borders, he finds the time to instruct local students at schools and even adults who are interested in the subject and want to delve further. Looi's estatic moment in astronomy came last year when he and the MNS members viewed comet Shoemaker Levy's crash into Jupiter - via a four-inch telescope. \"It was really exciting,\" he gushed. Looi is the regional coordinator for the Planetary Society (Steven Spielberg is the director for the USA). He is also a member of the British Astronomical Society and the Astronomical Association of Malaysia. A passion for the stars has led this unassuming 49-year old engineer to venture into the risky -business of importing Astronomy equipment the first Malaysian to do so. Editor's note: Atotal solar eclipsewilltake place on24 October 1995. Generalareas ofvisibility include Iran, India, the East Inclies, Japan and\" the Pacific Ocean. Our astronomer Looi's calculation indicates that the shadow will also J'all on the tip of Sabah in East Malaysia. Dominic Abrohom is a freelonce wrifer and conlribufes occasionally fo Berifa Shell 20 Brnna SHTLL, Jrt{-Mar tcss



Low smoke mololcycle oillounched. Technology lronsfer through locol R & D. New Shell Sport 2TS and 4TS, a range of motorcycle oils Two contracts worth RM250,000 were signed between up- developed from Shell's innovative technology was launched on 11 November 1994.As synthetic products, they bridge a stream Shell and Petronas Research & Scientific Services vital gap in the market offering motorcyclists the benefits of enhanced technology at a more affordable price. Shell Sport (PRSS) in January, a move that reflects the growing confi- 2TS and 4ATS are fortified with Shell's unique synthetic dence in local research and developent companies. Signing on materials for high performance motoring and ordinary lubri- cant protection. The products are formulated with a unique behalf of Shell, Tan Ek Kia said that the award of such package containing synthetic poly-iso-butylene (PIB) to en- contracts was one of Shell's many contributions to develop hance performance and reduce smoke. In conjunction with the launch, Shell also announced the upgrading of the entire local industry expertise and R & D infrastructure, The consul- product range to a higher performance classification. This range is suitable for all makes of motorcycle engines and are tancy service is for research projects in the \"Detemination of compatible with both leaded and unleaded petrol. Residual Oil Saturation\" and \"Quantification of Improved Recovery in Horizontal Developmenf'. Both are in the area of One week dedicoted to HSE. Reservoir Engineering. PRSS had previously carried out a collaborativeR&DproiectforShell'sD35 seawaterhandling Ministerof Human Resources, YB Dato' Lim AhLeklaunched system. Shell's Health, Safety & Environment Week in December New monoging direclot for downslteom. 1994. Declaring open a week ofactivities held simultaneously in Miri, Bintulu and Port Dickson, the Minister also launched Christian E Balmes, formerly General Manager of Shell Por- She1l's corporate HSE magazine whichdocuments the compa- tugal is Shell Malaysia's new Managing Director Downstream ny's HSE policies, programmes and achievements as well as effective January 1995. A Fench citizen, Balmes brings with describes Shell's active involvement in health protection and him a wealth ofexperience through his various assignments in promotion, safety enhancement andenvironmental protection. Shel1 France (Marketing Distribution & Finance), SIPC Lon- Chairman Datuk Chris Knight also announced the establish- don (Marketing Adviser EA region) and French West Indies (General Manager). ment of the Chairman's HSE Award which will recognise outstanding HSE performance achieved by Shell worksites First deepwoter PSC for Shell. and offshore installations. According to Datuk Ifuight, \"HSE She1l has been awarded its first deepwater production sharing concerns are fully integrated within Shell's business alongside contract (PSC) by PETRONAS for the exploration, develop- with technical competence and competitive elements.\" ment and production of the SB-G Block offshore Sabah. Located approximately 100 kilometres from Labuan, Block G RM2 million for university choir. covers an area of5,860 sq km and is in water depths ofbetween 1000 feet to 6000 feet. PETRONAS and Shell are already The Shell Chair on Environmental Studies was officially partners for Block SB- 1 where significant volumes of gas from established at University Malaysia Sarawak (UNIMAS) fol- the Kebabangan-l field. The explorationperiod for Block SB- lowing Shell's donation of RM2 million from to the university G comprises two phases. Under the frst phase of exploration, at its campus in Kota Samarahan in January 1995. Shell's Shell will make a commitment of RM45 million for fouryears. Managing Director, Mr Tan Ek Kia presented the cheque to According to Chairman, Datuk Knight \"We shall be drawing UNMAS Vice Chancellor, hof. Dato' Zawawilsmail. Deputy Education Minister YB Dr Leo Micheal Toyad was also on Shel1 Group's expertise in deepwater technology and present at the MOU signing ceremony. The Shell chair will support the research and teaching in Environmental Studies geoscience, gained in other deepwater acreages. Throughout within the Institute ofBiodirieiiity and Environmental Conser- the operation ofthe block, Shell is committed to the transfer of vation (IBEC). skills and know-how vis-a-vis deepwatff technology from the tPG & Bitumen \"Quick Hit\" Project. Shell Group to its own Malaysian staff and those of The project started in Pasir Gudang in November 1994 where PETRONAS.\" all LPG order taking facilities were entirely undertaken by the lounched - CSC pilot ot Posir Gudong. \"quick hit\" unit in Kuala Lumpur. Centralisation of order A single point contact for all customer services for all prod- taking in Kuala Lumpur foq packed LPG and bulk bitumen was ucts, for the whole of Malaysia, 24-hours a day, seven days a extended to two other worksites, Ipoh and Port Dickson. The week, and 365 days a year. This is Shell's ambition for total unit now handles all bulk bitumen and packed LPG orders customer service. Up to last year, that kind of sen ice was just suppliedfromthe 3 fillingplants inKuching, PaslGudang and a long-harboured wish of many a Shell dealer and customer. Port Dickson. The project involves a new process whereby When Shell embarked on its business reengineering journey and decided on customer intimacy as its strategic response, orders from customers for LPG and Bitumen are placed, Shell's retail dealers in JohorBahru has a foretaste of their wish scheduled andmonitoredcentrally. Experience ftomtheproject turning into reality. They can now place their orders, check on or query schedules and delivery, or make any necessary is providing invaluable leaming points to Shell's newly estab- changes to their orders through a single point fax and phone lished Customer Service Centre. line of the Customer Service Centre (CSC) based in Kuala Lumpur. The Pasir Gudang pilot will then be progressively introduced to consumer dealers, direct customers, highstreet distributors and govemment accounts. Order taking, schedul- ing and monitoringis thefirstservice to be online. Inthe course of th\" y\"-, more services and facilities will be added. I 22 B*naSrru, hH-Mrn tcas

UK Shell and a consortium ofseveral local investors. A feasibility American C-store in UK market study will commence immediately and will be followed by detailed design in 1995. The target completion ofthe plant will Shell UK announced jn November 1994 that a survey con- ducted by its Us-styled convenience shopping arm, Shell be in earty I997. Select revealed huge marketing opportunities for UK service station networks best placed to serve the [3 1 billion conven- Angolo ience (C-store) shopping market. De epwater w ell succ e s sfu lly drill ed Launching 'Convenience Shopping: The Shell Select Sonangol, the Angola national oil company and Shell Angola Report at the Fuelling for kofit' at a conference, a marketing announced in late December 1994 that the drilling of the first exxploration well on the Angolan deepwater Block 16 has manager said oi1 companies who now successfully change been successfully concluded. their culture to develop quality forecourt c-stores were better placed to give customers convenience shopping than any other The well, Bengo-l, was drilled in 600 metres of water to form of outlet. Forecourt C-stores had already doubled in two a total depth of 3,300 metres and produced crude oil on test at years their share ofthe burgeoning UK market, capturing 12 a rate of i,780 bbls per day (280 cubic metres per day). billion worth of business. Shell, the operator of the Contractor Group Shell is investing some f350 million in its network nationwide. By the end of the year, 25% af the Shell UK (which includes Esso, Texaco and EIf) is presently proceeding network of service station sites will have been converted to Select - some 650 stores, rising to around 900 by the end of to additional studies in order to better evaluate the results of the well. t995. Chino USA E nv ir o n m e ntally -fr i e ndly r efrn e ry Shell crade lines in Mexican Gulf In November 1994, the Royal Dutch/ Shell Group announced Houston-based Shell Oil Company announced in December 1994 its plans to construct a new major pipeline system to that it is committed to assisting China in planning for the transport crude oil from current and future deep water produc- tion in the gulf of Mexico. future, by introducing advanced technologies to an integrated oil and petrochemical manufacturing complex currently being The majorportion of the system, 100 miles in length, will planned in Huizhou, Guandong Province. connect the Green Canyon and Ewing Bank areas to the Mars pipeline and the Colvelly storage facilites. A separate 25-mi1e Shell will be using a pioneering deep conversion con- line will tmnsport crude from Shell Offshore Inc.'s highly figuration, which means that virnrally all ofeven the heaviest productive Auger deepwater project and from anticipated rew crude oil will be used in the production ofhigh quality oi1 and chemical products, with less waste and less pollution in the production from other producers in the Garden BanJ<s area to the Bonito and Eugene Island lines, and on to St. James storage complex and in the use of its products. Shell also expects the facilities. specifications for motor gasoline and diesel in China to be- come dghter environmentally, as vehicle traffic grows. The The two 20-inch diametre lines will each have a design capacity of 200,000 barrels per day. Construction is expected Huizhou plant will cost US$6 billion, making it one of the to begin mid-1995 after permits have been obtained, with completion planned for I 996. largest investments thatthe Royal Dutch/ Shell Group has ever made worldwide. Philippines First oilfrom new freld New refinery nearing cnmpletion The Shell Offshore partnership which comprises Shell, China In December 1994, Shell Philippines amounced that its new National Offshore Oil Corp and Phillips Petroleum Intema- 110,000 banels per day refinery at Tabangao. Batangas is tional Corp, has announced that a new oil field will soon be in currently in the process of being commissioned. production in the South China Sea. A number of major units and facilities are undergoing The Ixjian project represents a US$600 million invest- testing. The rest ofthe units, particularly theThermal Gas Oil ment by the partners with Shell holding major private interest. Unit and the Sulphur Recovery Unit are yet to be completed Itis expectedthatinitialproduction willbe 20,000barrels aday and commissioned for start up. The commissioning of all the and this is expected to peak at 66,000 banels a day within two units will pave the way for commercial operations of the refuery by the first quarter of 1995. years. The fields are located at the Pearl River Mouth Basin, The new refinery will incorporate cleaner, more efficient operations and environmentally-friendly processes and facili- 80miles southeast of Hong Kong inthe SouthChina Seain 330 ties. More and better quality products will thus benef.it the customer. When fully onstream, the refinery will boost Shell's feet of water. The pannership began searching in 1984 and capability in meeting the country's growing energy needs as discovered the first Xijiang field in 1985. In 1991, afl agree- well as add substantially to its export eamings from surplus products. ment was signed between the partners to develop the fields. lndonesio Singopore Blending plnnt in Surabaya Shell in Seraya Chemicals joint venture Shell Indonesia announced in December 1994, the signing of A ground breaking ceremony of Seraya Chemicals' new a Memorandum of Understanding for a 75.000 MT/year lube oil blending plant in Surubaya. East Java. styrene monomer and propylene oxide plant took place in The project witl be a joint venture between Pertamina, October 1994. Those present were joint venture partners: Shell, Mitsubishi, Chiyoda Corporation and the Singapore Economic Developmenl Board. With the S$ 1.3 billion Seraya Chemical project. Singapore continues to lead the develop- ment of the petrochemcal industry in ASEAN. Seraya wi1lbe the first to manufacture propylene oxide and propylene glycols in ASEAN. The polyols plant will be the largest in the Asia- Pacific outside Japan. The styrene monomer capacity is of world scale. $ Brnrrl SHsLr, Jelr-Mm t99523

Energy investment in o greening world A fations have a strong desire for economic growth these interest groups, who aspire to join the ranks of the f \\ fi\" order to improve the quality of life of their 'stakeholders'. f Ypeople. for which they will need energy from 'stakeholder' interests however, are not necessarily fossil fuel. In the very long term, the demand for these will aligned with those of the energy company and they may well be opposed to them. Not all the groups are directly or reduce as renewable energy sources penetrate their mar- primarily concerned with environmental matters, but in- kets, but for at least the next quarter-century most plausible creasingly the environment is interpreted very broadly and used as avehicle to promote the achievementof other goals, scenarios show that increasing amounts of fossil fuels will such as employment or protection of competing industries. continue to be required. Environmental goals are now invariably incorporated in laws and regulatory systems controlling energy activi- Energy companies will continue to invest in new ties, and in the corresponding tax structures. The type and the degree ofenvironmental regulation varies from country energy supply sources, processing plants and distribution to country, reflecting widely differing political cultures and systems around the world, to satisfy demand, and will objectives. Those countries in which the environmental movement has achieved broad popular and political sup- execute these investments as responsibly and sustainably port, tend as a result to be the most intensely regulated. as possible. Their operations however will be scrutinised The increasingly strict environmental regulatory cli- by governments and interest groups for any signs of mate has increased the costs ofenergy projects. For nearly negative environmental impact. a decade, the real performance of energy projects and Energy investors will continue to be subject to the companies has fallen below their cost of capital. Unduly prescriptive environmental regulation has been a signifi- usual disciplines of the financial markets from which they cant factor in reducing investment profitability. Most com- obtain their funds, the demand for which will amount to panies are currently working to achieve this by cost-cutting billions of dollars per year. Indeed, corporate investors in and efficiency improvements. Governments will also be many energy projects may have to ealal better than average able to contribute, by modifying regulatory regimes in industrial returns because of the particular risks to which directions which encourage self-help by operators. they are exposed. These include untested technologies and A number of non-OECD countries (in Asia Pacific difficult physical situations. and Latin America) have rapidly growing economies and Although fossil fuels are finite, the world's resource energy needs. If they can manage to enjoy 20 years of sustained economic growth at current evels, this will create base of oil and natural gas and particularly coal is very an enormous improvement in their wealth and their impor- large, probably sufficient to sustain current demand growth tance in the world. They need energy to fuel their growth. Given current technologies and energy infrastructure, this patterns until around the middle of the next century. Increasingly, renewable energy sources will probably be- energy will predominantly be supplied by fossil fuels, oil, come competitive with fossil fuels, gradually taking over natural gas and coal, requiring major new investments by their roles in many markets. This suggests that the real concerns are less about depleting resources than about the energy industries. This presents both opportunities and risks. Intema- improving the ways in which fossil fuels are produced and tional companies have an enormous contribution to make used. in terms of technical and managerial expertise to make Much of this can be achieved by introducing more efficient energy-use technologies already available, such these investments work. They are also answerable to share- as combined cycle-gas fired power generation, clean coal holders on these large capital investments. It is therefore a technology and more fuel-efficient petrol and diesel en- matter ofboth global interest and self-interest for industry to exercise environmental stewardship in their operations. gi nes. Energy companies should, however, maintain a vig- Sustainability has more to do with managing energy de- orous defence of their activities as a legitimate and wealth- mand and use in an efficient and waste minimising manner creating part of a modem society. Governments on behalf than with conserving resources at all costs. It also imples a striving for continuous improvement in the economic of their societies have to manage the increasingly difficult outputs obtained from the energy consumed. Societies and judgements and trade-offs necessary to maintain energy sustainability. These are more likply to be achieved by energy companies need to develop a better understanding liberal, enabling policies than by intense regulation of of the relative costs and benefits of alternative energy energy activities. options, both monetary and societal In the past, industry may have been reticent about The environmental movement has gathered momen- being 'multinational' or about the fact that our business is based on natural resource production. We see clearly that tum from the I 960s onwards. It has fu ndamentally changed there is a major task ahead of our industries to which we know we can contribute, using the technology and experi- management decision-making in the energy industries. ence gained over many years in all parts of the world.9 Managers have had to leam that financial returns alone cannot justify investment decisions. The world is now a Extracts from a presentation by Peter Kassler, Group much more complex place in which the impact of these Plannin g c o ordinator, S IP C, London. activities on the environment needs to be considered. This is a complex task because of the multiple impacts of many investments, the difficulty of quantifying them and the frequent need to trade off one potential impact against another. A second complexity arises from the number of different groups and interests all attempting to influence energy investments. Previous simple definitions of the interestedparties in an entelprise are no longer accepted by 24 Brnrn Sxrrr, Jlr'r-Mrn tscs

PI MMAG- MENEATASI TU MPAHAN MINYAK TUGAS KITA BERSAMA perasi petroleum di Malaysia merangkumi penggerudian dan pengeluaran kepada Bum yong dipunggoh pemerosesan dan pemasaran, terbentang di perairan Selat Melaka di bahagaian doripodo kopol melibotkon baratSemenanjung, perairan LautChinaSelatandibahagiantimurserta menjangkau lotihon kowolon perairan Laut Sulu Sabah di Malaysia Timur. tumpohon minyok Ini bermakna minyak mentah dan hasil keluaran lain petroleum akan diangkut dengan di peroiron tempoton. kapal ke kawasan pemerosesan tepi pantai untuk diproses dan kemudiannya dihantar ke gudang pengedaran sebelum ianya dihantar ke pengguna. Ketetapan serta jumlah operasi ini - walaupun langkah kawalan yang ketat diambil oleh oleh industri minyak, sektor perkapalan dan pihik berkuasa marin - namun masih terdapat juga risiko kejadian yang tidak diingini ataupun kemalangan marin. Didalam keadaan berlakunya kemalangan dan melibatkan tumpahan minyak, setiap syarikat minyak utama di Malaysia mempunyai pasukan bertindak tumpahan minyak yang dipanggit \"Tiet 1.\" (OSR) dan mempunyai kelengkapan peralatan yang terletak di beberapa tempat strategikbagi memenuhi keperluan syarikat ataupun perjanjian yang ditandatangani bersama. Syarikat-syarikat petroleum seperti PETRONAS, Shell dan Esso mamPu menghadapai masalah tumpahan minyak seperti tertib pengeluaran, kebocoran hos semasa o-perWasai lpauembiangdaaimhaannakpeulunarpaandadibjueltailnguSdeapntegm. ber 7992 penyelarasan keseluruhan industri untuk berkongsi sumber-sumber OSR telah diformalkan. Syarikat-syarikat minyak utama di Malaysia menyedari bahawa penyelarasan dan penstrukturan perkongsian peralatan serta sumber dan hubungan rapat dengan pihak berkuasa tempatan, negeri dan kerajaan pusat akan memberikan kesan yang paling optima dalam usaha mencegah kemalangan di laut dan tumpahan minyak di perairan kita. \"Bantuan Bersama\" merupakan kata kunci. PIMMAC - Petroleum Industry of Malaysia Mutual Aid Group - didaftarkan sebagai badan bukan mengambil untung pada Disember 1.993. Pada bulan Julai 1994 pejabatnya yang terletak l.l' - Brnrrr Su*1, Jru-Mrn tcas 25

di bangunan ibu pejabat PETRONAS di Kuala Lumpur dirasmikan pembukaanya. Syarikat yang menyertai PIMMAG adalah Shell Malaysia, PETRONAS, Esso, British Petro- leum, Caltex, Mobil, Occidental Oil, Texaco, Overseas Petroleum Invest- ment Corporation dan Nippon. Dana terancang ialah RM23 juta. ]ohn Selliman mengetuai organisasi ini. Beliau yang cenderung berbakti disokongi oleh Syarikat Shell Sabah dan Sarawak. Kakitangan lain diambil berkhidmat serta disokong oleh Syarikat yang mengambil bahagian program ini. Penyeloroson Persediaan maklum-balas tumpahan minyak (peralatan, logistik dan tenaga kerja terlatih) 9?1. . - adalah agak mahal intuk dikumput dan disenggira. Tindakin gabungan industri melalui !:[t]itliJ:\" PIMMAd, adalah yang pmailninygak\"rd\"ittmirasdaanhasdaakpiaamna. untuk p\".iiupur,-terhadap sebarang perototin serto kemungkinan tumpahan Tiga suku daripada peruntukan 1995 donsumber ropothubungon akan diagihkan untuk peralatan dan selebihnya disalurkan kepada operasi dan pentadbiran. PIMMAG, selewat-lewatnya pertengahan tahun ini, akan membuta tiga buih pusat lagi dengon pihok - dua di Semenanjung Malaysia dan sebuah di Labuan. Kawasan dibenarkan di sisi undang- -o.i1\"r.r'J tdeomnpkoteonr,onjoegoenri undang akan ditambah lagi sehingga 200 batu lepas pantai. Syarikat minyak bekerjasama rapat dengan kerajaan dalam mengambil langkah mengawasi sebarang kemungkinan yang ;1mi.e1;m;t;D:;te;-;n1koin:'i^ berlaku di sepanjang persisiran pantai Malaysia. Selat Melaka diberi lebih tumpuan kerana kesesakan laluanperairannyayangsentiasadiancambahayapelanggarankapaldantumpahan poling optimo minyak. dolom usoho Peranan khusus dan utama PIMMAG ialah mengawasi sebarang fumpahan minyak, il\"j::gil- bertindak sebagai pengendali peralatan tumpahan minyak dan penyelaris tenaga kerja tir\"ri J\"\"\" semasaberlakukecemasan. Iajugabergabungdenganbadan-badankerajaandalammenangani tumpohon minyok. masalah ini. Jawatankuasa Panel Penasihat terdiri daripada Ahli Biasa dan akan bertindak sebagai sebuah forum berkesinambungan. Unit Lembaga Pengarahnya pula terdiri daripada Ketua- ketua Pegawai Eksekutif syarikat berkenaan. Struktur maklum-balas yang sudah terancang disusun dalam tiga peringkat iaitu : Peringkat Pertama - permasalahan yang dianggap masih kecil. Dalam kategori ini, tanggungjawab tumpahan minyak terletak pada syarikat minyak yang terlibat sahaja. Syarikat minyak terbabit akan mengembleng sumbernya sendiri untuk membersihkan tumpahan yang berlaku. Drama bermula dalam misi Peringkat Kedua. Sekiranya tumpahan minyak mencapai sekitar 199,000tong- atau 30 tan, maklumbalas untukbantuanPIMMAG akan diterimadalam masa 12 hingga 24 jam. Sekiranya tumpahan berlaku di luar kemampuan dan kawasan perairan wilayah, peralatan yang diperlukan akan dibawa segera daripada dua kawasan berdekatan. Pihak yang bertanggungjawab dan berkuasa ketika ini masih terletak pada syarikat yang menjadi penyebab tumpahan manakala PIMMAG hanya membekalkan peralatan perlu berserta tenaga pakar pengurusan bencana. Peringkat Ketiga akan melibatkan panggilan kepada sumber-sumber luaran (external) dan badan-badan yang dihubungi adalah ]abatan Penerbangan Malaysia, Tentera Udara di- Raja Malaysia, |abatan Alam Sekitar dan Pusat Tumpahan Minyak (Oil Spill Centre) di Southampton, England. 26 Bsnrra Snnl, Jllr-Mm rsss

Matlamat dan objektif PIMMAG seperti digariskan dalam kenyataan objektifnya : o untuk menyokong ahli dan bukan ahli terhadap maklumbalas tumpahan minyak. a menyediakan kemudahan kerjasama sumber maklumbalas industri tumpahan minyak. O untuk memperolehi, menyewa, menyenggara dan menjalankan operasi sumber maklumbalas tumpahan minyak. untuk bekerjasama dan mengintegrasikan ikhtiar PIMMAG dengan kerajaan berkaitan usaha mengawal dan memulihara akibat tumpahan minyak. untuk mewakili industri petroleum Malaysia berkaitan isu maklumbalas tumpahan minyak. untuk memupuk dan mempertingkatkan minat dalam semua isu berkaitan maklumbalas tumpahan minyak serta keselamatan, kesihatan sejagat dan isu alam semulajadi. john Selliman dari Shell Malaysia ditugaskan mentadbir organisasi anti-bencana ini. Beliau pada asalnya ketika masih muda merancang meniti kerjaya dalam bidang perubatan bahkan sudah pun membuat persiapan untuk menceburkan dirinya dalam kerjaya tersebut. Namun, minatnya berubah. Lebih-lebih lagi kemampuan kesihatannya agak mampan. Lantas beliau bertukar arah daripada hanya memfokuskan kerjaya bidang kesihatan untuk ruang lingkup mikro kepada perspektif makro, untuk manfaat lebih ramai manusia. Beliau meninjau peluang yang terdapat di Sabah. Shell menjadi pilihannya kerana menyedari reputasi syarikat ini. Lebih-lebih lagi cawangan Sabah banyak memberi peluang dan ruang kepada individu untuk membuktikan kemampuan dan pencapaian individu. Beliau gembira apabila terpilih menyertai Shell Sabah. Bermula dengan tugasan pegawai pelatih - menentukan prosedur dan membina sektor latihan keselamatan dan seterusnya memberi kontrak perkhidmatan tersebut kepada pihak luar. Terbukti reputasi Shell memang unggul kerana ]ohn secara progresif turut meningkat prestasinya sejajar dengan perkembangan Syarikat majikannya. Shell menghantarnya ke Aberdeen untuk sesi latihan 5 bulan pada tahun 1981.,1983 dan 1990 untuk mempelajari teknologi terkini dalam pengurusan bencana tumpahan minyak. Sektor latihan keselamatan menjadi realiti pada tahun 1987 /88. Beliau kemudiannya memulakan sektor pentadbiran maklumbalas kecemasan. Tahun lepas, beliau mengambil alih pentadbiran PIMMAG yang baru dilancarkan itu. I John Sellimqn, kqnon sekoli.sedong menerongkon tindokbolos kecemqson kepodo lembogo pengoroh plotfom luor pontoi, Brnm Sxru., Jlr.r-Mrn ws27

Perjuangan Menentang Tumpahan Minyak di Perairan PD Port Dickson: ]am 0600, L5 November, 1994,Pegawai Daerah (DO) Port Dickson menerima berita daripada ]abatan Alam Sekitar. Sebuah kapal pembawa minyak telah berlaga mengakibaikan tumpahan minyak 600 tan Minyak Mentah Tapis di perairan Port padiam 0615, Penyelia Kawasan meminta DO membentuk sebuah Jawatankuasa K_Daiwckasloann. Tumpahan Minyak(SCC) dan menunggu arahan selanjutnya berkaitan pengawalan pantai. Sejurusselepasitu,SCCmemanggil]awatankuasaBencanalndustriDaerahuntukmengadakan perbincangan kecemasan di pefabat DO. Pada jam 0630, wakil Shell mengumumkan bencana tersebut kipada Pegawai Pengurusan Bertugas dan seterusnya memohon perkhidmatan kecemasan^KumpuLn-201. Kemudian, pasukan Maklumbalas Tumpahan Minyak Shell berkumpul di bilik persidangan logi penapisan itu. Datim suasuna kecemasan tersebut, pihak Esso dipanggil untuk memasang joran, menugaskan penyiring dan menghantar kapal tangki laju ke kawasan yang terbabit dekat Balast\\edam. S-he1l *\"nyrrrn para petugasnya dan meletakkan mereka dalam keadaan berjaga-jaga sekiranya lebih ramii petugas diperlukan. Pihak SCC turut menerima aduan aaripiaa para nelayan bahawa pukat mereka kotor kerana terserap minyak yang terapung daripada tumpahan sementara tiasil tangkapan mereka mati keracunan' Terdapat juga pihak 'yang mendesak supaya kadar kerosakan ekologi diteliti segera., lada ja1;- 1200, maklumbalas dari Polis Udara, Tentera Udara, PIMMAG (Kumpulan Bantuan Bersama Industri Petroleum Malaysia) tiba ke tempat kejadian, mengawasi kawasan terlibat dari udara dan menyembur serakan dari bot dan udara. Pada jam 1400, pihak SCC menghantar petugas memulakan kerja pembersihan kawasan tpantai. Bubrk spontan ini adalah rentetan langkah diambil dalam latihan kawalan Pencemaran nasional - Oil Combat'94 yang dikendalikan di bawah naungan ]abatan Alam Sekitar. Menteri Sains, Teknologi dan Alam Sekitar, YB Datuk Law Hieng Ding turut berada untuk menyaksikan latihan penting itu. Shell menghantar perwakilan terdiri daripada Pengarah Ekseiutif dan Pengarih Urusan Korporat, Perundangan, Kesihatan, Keselamatan dan Alam Sekitar, Nizar Idris dan Koordinator SCM HSE, Tan Ging Tuang. PenyertaanShelladalahdenganmenyediakanperalatanmaklumbalastumpahanminyak (OSR) slperti penabur serakan, penyembur belakang dan joran. Shell (Shell Refining Company GOM) Berhad dan Esso di PD mempunyai kesefahaman jangka panjang untuk bersama-sama rnemerangi tumpahan minyak. SheII mempraktikkankonsep berperingkat (Tier) dalam merumus dan mengimplementasi keupayaan tindak balas ketumpahan minyak (OSR) dan semua kemudahan termasuk tapak kerja dan penapis minyak ditengkapi keupayaan Peringkat 1 OSR, yang secara asasnya memerlukin keupayaan 'on-site' untuk berdepan dengan operasi ketumpahan kecil. |ika ketumpahan tidal dapat dikawal oleh Peringkat 1 maka Peringkat 2 diambil. Dua latihan tindak balas ketumpihan minyak dijalani kakitangan Shell (penapisan dan pemasaran) di PD pada April1994.I 28 Bsrrn Snrrr, JNl-Mm tqcs

''KUDAT, KUDAT, KUDAT, INI MIRI SATU, OVER!\" ,(l udat,Kudat,Kudat. IniMiriSatu,SelamatPagi!\" Panggilanradiomesrayangdibuat I|(,^\\/ dari rangkaian pejabat Shell di Lutong setiap pagi ke Pejabat Stesen Cuaca Kudat sejak Ci. utomo stesen hampir suku abad yang lalu kini tidak kedengaran lagi. Stesen Kudat serta empat cuoco iotoh tiong stesen lain sepanjang persisiran pantai Sarawak dan Sabah kini telah ditutup. Dengan mercu ongin pkoesnudKraiusnnaauhnnbtueharkmrgbuaelramalkiihne-ytkiakekapayadakanh-gpiretnetaglahghuunntua1rau9nn60, tteaekpknaaobnliaolangirkabinnatiardiuika.ejudkuadnuktearnhadd.i.app'as'paenngasnaegpegaunnjgaanng setinggi sepuluh m;:13:Y\"^ empot jowoi goi persisiran Borneo sebagai sokongan kepada penerokaan minyak di pelantar lepas pantai. keluli. Suhu udara dan data kelembapan diperlukan untuk membuat pembetulan isyarat. Dari permulaan yang kecil ini maka lahirlah stesen cuaca di sini. Ukuran berkembang dengan menyertakan kelajuan angin dan iebat hujan dan cahaya matahari, dan operator stesen membuat pengamatan cuaca. Kesemua stesen itu terletak di tapak kawasan pedalaman sepanjang persisiran pantai - di Igan, Kidurong dan Kuala Baram di Sarawak, di Kubong, Pulau Labuan dan Kudat di penghujung utara Sabah. Sabah dikenali sebagai 'Negeri di Bawah Bayu', kerana ia terletak di selatan laluan utama angin taufan vang merintangi Filipina. Mengapa stesen cuaca diperlukan? Sungguhpun cuaca agak tenang sepanjang masa, kemungkinan perubahan mendadak boleh berlaku, terutama daripada hujan ribut yang berkunjung secara tiba-tiba. Kapal dan tongkangyang digunakan untuk operasi lepas pantai adalah lebih kecil daripada yang digunakan syarikat di Lautan Utara, tetapi secara relatif lebih terdedahkepada cuaca t'uruk dan menjejaskan masa kerja. Oleh itu ramalan (uaca memang diperlukan. Dengan beberapa ukuran dari lepas pantai, peramal cuaca memberi keyakinan valg kuat terhadap penelitian daripada lima stesen pesisir pantai. Penelitian ini jugalah pada peringkat arval, menjadi sumber maklumat utama berkaitan cuaca sebagai garis panduan untuk reka bentuk pelantar lepas pantai dan perancangan operasi. Slesen cuoco Ciri utama stesen cuaca ialah tiang mercu angin setinggi sepuluh meter yang disokong oleh empat Brnrre Sxrt, JeH-Mrn tcss 29

Penyoring ini dawai gai keluli. Di atasnya dipasang sebuah anemom- diponggil eter. Penderia ini mempunyai cawan berputar untuk mengikut nomo mengukur kelajuan angin dan ram sebagai penunjukarah perciptonyo, angin. Nampaknya agak tegar, namun beberapa kali sepanjang dua puluh lima tahun lalu, penderia ini ditimpa Thomos kerosakan akibat penahan petir. Stevenson. Di sekeliling bahagian bawah tiang ini terdapat beberapa perkakasan pelbagai bentuk. Ada objek seperti almari dapur kecil berwarna putih yang dipanggil Stevenson Screen. Ia dilengkapi pintu dan dindingberanak tingkap (ram), dipasang atas kaki-kaki (tiang) jelas tampak tidakjejaktanah. Di dalamnya dipasang satu set penjangka suhu. Ram dinding menyaring cahaya matahari tetapi memberikan angin celus melempiasi penjangka suhu secara bebas. Penyaring itu dipanggil mengikut nama penciptanya - Thomas Stevenson iaitu bapa kepada pengarang terkenal Robert Louis Stevenson. Di dalamnya, penjangka suhu maksimum dan minimum menunjukkan capaian suhu tertinggi dan terendah berbanding tahap terakhir bacaan suhu diambil. Penjangka suhu 'mentol kering' memberikan bacaan suhu udara sebenar. Sebelahnya ialah penjangka suhu 'mentol basah' kerana mentol merkuri penjangka suhu itu diliputi sehelai muslin basah yang apabila berlaku penyejatan menyebabkan bacaan suhu menurun. Perbezaan kadar suhu mentol basah dan kering itulah memberikan ukuran tahap kelembapan mengikut skala standard. Apabila kelembapan tinggi, kadar penyejatan menjadi kurang, maka perbezaan di antara suhu adalah kecil. Perbezaan2\"C pada 30C menunjukkan nilai kelembapan relatif 86Vo. Dekat dengan Stevenson Screen dipasang satu objek lain, sedikit tinggi daripada paras bumi, kelihatan seperti bola kristal. Dengan lokasi stesen cuaca di pedalaman terpencil dan objek seperti bola kristal yang sering dikaitkan dengan ahli magis jipsi, seolah-olah operator di situ terbabit dengan aktiviti pawang ketika waktu lapang! Objek seperti bola kristal itu sebenarnya adalah tolok cahaya matahari. Bola kaca dalam tolok itu memfokuskan pancaran matahari pada sebuah calta khas penggred masa, ruang yang berbalam memberikan jumlah jam pancaran sinar matahari. Sebelahnya lagi dipasang perkakas yang rupa agak aneh - seperti sebarisan baldi. Ia sebenarnya alat tolok hujan, diguna untuk menakung dan merekod jumlah ukuran hujan harian. Stesen ini tidak juga sepi. Dikerapi bunyi penjana disel yang membekalkan kuasa kepada stesen dan untuk operator sekeluarga yang tinggal berhampiran. Di dalam pondok stesen boleh kelihatan perakam carta angin dan pendail tergantung pada dinding. Di atas meja diletakkan alat penghubung utama dengan dunia luar - radio. Berokhirnyo kebiosoon horion Operator bekerja awal setiap hari. Mereka perlu menyiapkan catatan pemerhatian cuaca untukmenjawabpanggilanjamenampagi'MiriSatu'dariShellLutong. Panggilansuaraceria sama ada daripada Binra atau Christina menerusi gelombang udara mencetuskan permulaan hari yang baru setiap hari. Para operator menjadi begitu sibuk dengan kerja senggaraan perkakas ukur stesen di samping mengendalikan tugasan pemerhatian cuaca. 'Miri Satu' menghubungi sekali lagi untuk mendapatkan maklumat cuaca terkini pada sebelah petang. Kini semua ini tiada lagi. Teknologi canggih mengakhiri segala-galanya. Kerja stesen kedudukan cuaca seperti ini kini diambil alih oleh sateli! tugasan pemerhatian cuaca kini 30 Bmrra SHeu, JaN-Man rccs

dikendalikan oleh stesen cuaca automatik yang beroperasi di pelantar pengeluaran lepas pantai. Satu era kini berakhir. Dan, kita amat menghargai khidmat yang diberikan oleh operator stesen selama dua setengah dekad itu. Stesen cuoco oulomolik Stesen cuaca automatik yang terkini ini beroperasi di Bayan, E11 dan pelantar Baronia di perairanSarawak,dandiSemarang,ErbWestdanSouthFuriousdiperairanSabah. Rangkaian lepas pantai ini disokong oleh satu stesen persisiran pantai di Lutong. Rangkaian Stesen menggunakanpenderia,perkakasandanperisianteknologiterkinidenganpenekanankepada kebolehharapan dan kawalan mutu. Stesen lepas pantai mengukur laju dan haluan angin, tinggi dan jadual gelombang, suhu dan tekanan udara. Stesen pesisir pantai juga menyukat hujan. Lima daripada pelantar itu dijadikantempatmengukurketinggiangelombangmenggunakanlaserpemasanganpelantar pandangan ke bawah. Pada pelantar keenam, ketinggian gelombang diukur menggunakan radio UHF yang memindahkan arahan boya Waverider yang dipasang berhampiran. Setiap station data acquisition Unit (DAU) dipasang dengan sebuah'bekalan kuasa tiada halangan'yang melindunginya daripada penurunan kuasa dan mengurangkan risiko bunyi yang merosakkan data maklumat. DAU mempunyai logger (untuk penyesuaian dan pendigitasi isyarat) dan sebuah PC 486 untuk pemprosesan dan menjalankan pemeriksaan kawalan mutu yang agak luas. Sebarang data yang disyaki akan diisyaratkan dan di mana sampel ditolak atau keadaan cuaca melebihi takatyang ditentukan, maka data digital mentah akan dilog untuk analisa selanjutnya di pelantar atas pantai. Isyarat gelombang juga melalui penapisbagimeredambunyiyangbolehmenjejaskanisyaratgelombangterutamadikawasan Laut rendah. Kakitangan pelantar mempunyai manfaat peragaan masa sebenar terhadap nilai terproses yang dikemaskinikan setiap minit bagi membantu operasi helikopter dan bot bekalan. Operator radio di setiap pelantar juga membuat pemerhatian cuaca secara visual, menaipkannya ke dalam DAU dengan masa masukan dilogkan secara automatik. Setiap sepuluh minit, sebuah lagi PC 486 atas pantai di pejabat Syarikat di Lutong menyiasat setiap stesen cuaca menerusi rangkaian telefon dan menjalankan 'download' terhadap nilai data terproses serta visual pemerhatian cuaca terkini. Setiap sejam, ringkasan nilai tersebut dihantar secara automatik ke papan kenyataan mel elektronik Syarikat, supaya sesiapa yang mempunyai terminal komputer boleh memeriksa dengan mudah bagaimana perkembangan cuaca di kawasan lepas pantai. Papan kenyataan yang sama ini juga menyenaraikan ramalan cuaca terkini ddn ringkasan statistik cuaca. Setiap 3 jam, data ringkasan ini dihantar secara automatik menerusi modem yang disarnbungkan kepada kontraktor ramalan cuaca di Singapura bagi membantu persiapan ramalan. Dua kali sehari, data maklumat juga dihantar menerusi faks kepada Perkhidmatan Meterogikal Malaysia di Kuala Lumpur. Masa sambungan sebenar ke pantai memudahkan kerja pengawasan prestasi Stesen dan sistempendiagnosdanpenderiakecelaan. jikaperlu,PCpusatataspantaibolehdisambungkan sebagai terminal kawalan jauh ke sebuah stesen DAU lepas pantai. Semua kemudahan ini membantukerugianpengurangandatadanmenurunkankekerapandankoslawatan. Beberapa masalah telah juga dihadapi dengan sambungan telekomunikasi ke pantai, oleh itu ia menjadi perlu untuk memasang sebuah 'watch dog' yang direka untuk 'reboot' PC pusat jika ia Ergendala akibat kerumitan komunikasi. Walaupun gejala ini berlaku, PC pusat ini diprogramkan untuk menjejaki dan mendapatkan kembali data terbaru dirakamkan. Sekali sebulan (ataulebihkerap dariitu jika perlu) kesemua data diformatkan semula dan di'upload' ke dalam bank data Syarikat bagi tujuan analisa dan interpretasi. 3lBenn Srru., JeN-M,cn r99s

Monfoot Oleh kerana maklumat mengenai keadaan sebenar lepas pantai kini boleh diperolehi menerusi telunjuk jari, sejajar dengan teknologi komputer, maka ia diambil mudah dan kini dianggap sebagai satu kebiasaan. Beberapa manfaat praktikal juga kini muncul. Peragaan moden yang lazim mengenai angin dan nilai gelombang memudahkan operasi helikopter dan kapal. Ia juga menyisihkan penelahan mengenai keadaan ramalan dan mengurangkan bilangan pindahan bot dan penerbangan helikopter. Terdapat juga kesedaran yang tinggi terhadap keadaan atas dan lepas pantai yang meningkatkan kualiti proses membuat keputusan operasi. Data itu juga menyebabkan peningkatan prestasi yang nyata dalam ketepatan ramalan cuaca, dalam pemasaan dan magnitud. Penderia ketinggian gelombang laser juga mempunyai aplikasi praktikal lain. Data diproses untuk mendapatkan maklumat pasang surut dan posisi Aras Min Laut secara berbanding kepada pelantar. Keputusan digunakan untuk mengesahkan'jurang udara' pelantar, dikenalpasti sebagai jarak minimum dari bahagian bawah dek pelantar ke aras maksimum permukaan air yang dijangka dapat dicapai ketika cuaca bermasalah. Beberapa pelantar minyak di Sarawak telah dibina dengan tambahan 'jurang udara', di mana dipastikan terdapat enapan ketika tekanan takungan air lebih masa. Laser itu akan terus digunakan untuk menyelaraskan enapan. Boyo gelombong Kisoh Berlolu di bohogion belokong kopol, Pengenalan rangkaian stesen cuaca automatik yang canggih memberi isyarat tamatnya satu era. Stesen manual lama ini adalah cerita lama. )ika anda berpeluang menziarahi pedalaman utara Sabah, singgahlah ke tapak Stesen Cuaca Kudat, terletak di tebing tinggi mengadap laut. Cuba berada di kawasan itu selepas jam enampagi selepas subuh menghilang. Cuma amati bunyi bayu dan anda pasti dapat mendengar bisikan suara halus dan manis waktu lalu - \"Kudat, Kudat, Kudat, Ini Miri Satu, over*fl 32 Brnm SurrL, hru-Mrn tqqs

TENAEA U NTU K PEMBANGUNAN enaga merupakan keperluan asas kehidupan yang menyeimbangkan pertumbuhan pesatkependudukan. Iapentinguntukpertumbuhanekonomi. Iamemberisumbangan kepada peningkatan taraf hidup dan menyediakan sumber keperluan untuk dunia lebih bersih. Namun, bagaimana dengan masa depan? Kelompok manusia dan organisasi, menerusi pengalaman yang pahit, memaklumi betapa tingginya risiko membuat telahan mengenai masa depan. Shell menggunakan senario sebagai kaedah strategik untuk menangani persoalan masa depan. Senario ini adalah'kisah' mengenai masa depan alternatif yang mungkin tercapai dan apakah maknanya kepada perniagaan kita. Ia bukannya ramalan tetapi dibina dengan lojik Jikalau' berdasarkan andaian yang dirumuskan daripada hal ehwal semasa, kepada implikasi terhadap masa hadapan. Tenaga sepanjang kurun lalu melalui pelbagai rentak dan rentetan sejarah - dengan sesuatu yang mengkagetkan, penangguhan dan perubahan mendadak - kesemuanya tidak dapat diramalkan melalui eksplorasi. Senario ini membantu kita memahami akan rangkaian perubahan ini menerusi interpretasi lebih mendalam mengenai peristiwa semasa, di samping meneliti daya kebangkalian yang boleh merobah masa depan. jika pendekatan sebegini digunakan untuk membentuk perkembangan sosial apakah kesannya gambaran ini kepada era masa depan? Apakah kesannya terhadap permintaan tenaga dan sumber tenaga tradisional? Teknologi manakah yang dapat disesuaikan bagi menemui keperluan tenaga masa depan? Perbincangan selanjutnya mengupas senario tanggapan Shell yangbakal dialami sepanjang perjalanan menuju tahun 2020. Juga, membincangkan tenaga yang diperlukan untuk menemui setiap senario dan menggariskan bagaimana permintaan tenaga boleh dipenuhi. Sotu ero revolusi 1 980-an merupakan tempoh paling giat, bahkan berlaku peralihan kuasa dan isme di banyak negara seluruh dunia (Gambarajah 1) Liberalisasi politik telah menghasilkan pilihanraya bebas dan kerajaan awam di kebanyakan negara Amerika Latin dan beberapa bahagian di Asia Timur. Berakhirnya Perang Dingin Brnrm Snru., Jrur-Man rccs 33

dan perpecahan Soviet Union telah menelurkan hubungan yang seluruhnya berbeza di seluruh dunia. Kesan gerakan politik dan ketenteraan daripada perubahan { r\\Halangan ini juga menampakkan kekejaman seperti rentonsanl yang dialami di Yugoslavia. Ganjaran / Perubahan nyata juga dialami dalam \\ dunia ekonomi dan pasaran. Keruntuhan Soviet Union bukan sahaja membuktikan ketidakupayaan rejim politik autoritarian bahkan menghilangkan kepercayaan dunia kepada ekonomi yang dirancang secara berpusat. Liberalisasi pasaran dengan tahap interpretasi berbeza merupakan corak ekonomi berhikmah yang diterima merata \\Ancaman ) dunia hari ini. Penswastaan dan deregulasi telah diperkenalkan dengan pelbagai tahap komitmen, contohnya di U.K., Amerika Syarikat, ]epun, Australia dan Perancis. Perubahan juga melanda dengan giat bahkan mencetuskan perubahan struktur menyeluruh di beberapa negara sedang membangun seperti di Amerika Latin di mana pengenalan reformasi demokratik turut diikuti penswastaan syarikat dan agensi kerajaan negeri dan deregulasi pasaran. Reformasi ekonomi telah dimulakan di negara berpenduduk paling ramai; China dan India. Akhir sekali, dengan perkembangan pesat komunikasi antarabangsa serta liputan media yang segera, perdagangan, transaksi kewangan dan operasi pasaran syarikat kini mula bersifat global. Ini diperkuatkan lagi oleh perlindungan selesa yang digariskan dalam perjanjian perdagangan antarabangsa seperti GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) dan NAFTA (North American Free Trade Area), serta pengembangan Kesatuan Eropah. Duo respon Terdapat dua jenis respon kepada liberalisasi dan lain-lain reformasi seperti dinyatakan (Gambarajah 2). Ada pihak melihat liberalisasi sebagai agen pencetus peluang untuk maju dan ganjaran yang akan, mengukuhkan penguatkuasaan proses. Ada pihak lain pula melihatnya sebagai ancaman kepada kedudukan mereka lantas menentangnya kerana gusar akan tewas. Dan, ini membawa kepada dua senario: o Perbatasan Baru dan o Halangan Perbqloson Boru Dalam Perbatasan Baru, liberalisasi terus berkembang dengan bertambahnya peluang yang dimanfaati. Hal ini membawa pula kepada suasana pembangunan tetapi prosesnya menghadapi rintangan kuat. Reformasi ekonomi dan politik dijangka bergerak dalam hal memperbaiki kemampuan masyarakat untuk meraih kekayaan bagi dimanfaati setiap ahli. Pertumbuhan pesat ekonomi di negara membangun agak mampan sementara keutamaan baru dalam kehidupan dan gaya hidup mula diserap dan tercipta dalam ekonomi yang matang. Hasilnya, suasana perniagaan mula berkembang dengan persaingan dan inovasi pesat (Gambarajah 3A). Bekalan dan Permintaan tenaga juga meningkat untuk menjana pertumbuhan ini. Negara-negara mundur mula mengorak langkah untuk menyumbang peranan lebih besar di arena ekonomi dan politik antarabangsa. 34 Brnrn SxrLL, Jrr'r-Mrn rces

Holongon (Borricode) Dalam Halangan, proses liberalisasi ditentang dan Perniagaan: dihadkan kerana manusia gusar kehilangan nilai yang efisYen, agresif, global mereka sangat hargai - pekerjaan, kuasa, autonomi, tradisikeagamaandanidentitikebudayaan. Fenomena I inilah yang menghasilkan ciri kepuakan dan ljff,';*, *n\"*\"f ,^. t\"t9(3erbatasan **n\"ra miskin: pembahagian secara wilayah, ekonomi, budaya dan iinggi dunia :--Z Perlumbuhan skonomi agama. Perniagaan antarabangsa sukar beroperasi dalam senario berwilayah ini (Gambarajah 3b). |urang perbezaan antara ekonomi kaya dan miskin bertambah YI tinggi di mana banyak negara miskin berkongsi hasil pendapatan rendah yang mereka cipta akibat kurang Negara kaya: Menukil ksulamaan pelaburan asing. Di negara membangun, beberapa organisasi bukan kerajaanyangmempunyai pelbagai kepentinganmula menjadi penyebab kepada anggapan bahawa penggunaan tenaga sebagai sesuatu yang buruk (hanya untuk meningkatkan cukai) dan mesti digunakan !-- Neoara miskin: secara pengagihan. Hal ini mengakibatkan corak tsr;Erginat pelaburan kurang memuaskan di sektor tersebut. Dalam senario Halangan, krisis baru di TimurTengah telah memberikan peluang kepada kerajaan mengimplementasi strategi drastik dan ketat, pencukaian tinggi dan penguatkuasaan peraturan berkaitan penggunaan tenaga. Perlumbuhon ekonomi don tenogo Perbezaan corak pertumbuhan ekonomi di antara dua senario ini, menjelang 2020, menghala kepada dua gambaran terhadap dunia apabila perbandingan itu dalam per kapita keluaran dalam negara kasar (GDP/capita. Dalam senario Halangan, kadar pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara sedang membangun kekal tebih kurang 3% setahun (hal yang serupa dalam tahun 1980-an). Menjelang 2020, hampir 90% daripada jumlah penduduk dunia - mungkin mencecah 8 bilion ketika itu - mempunyai pendapatan rendah serta menghadapi masalah mendapatkan keperluan asas r\"pu.1i ai, leirik dsb.) sementara baki 1,0Va terbahagi sama rata di kalangan berpendapatan ^pertengahan dan tinggi. Beibezadalam hil Perbatasan Baru, liberalisasi mencetuskan kadar pertumbuhan lima hingga enam peratus di negara keanggotaan OECD. (Organisation for Economic Cooperation anJbevelopment), serupa halnya ketika tahun 1.960-an. Menjelang 2020, lebih daripada seiengah jumlahpendudukduniamenikmatipendapatan'pertengahan'sementarapendapatan rendah turun pida kadar anggaran 407o. Akibat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan peluang -pendidikan yang luas ini, pertumpuan kependudukan mula berkurangan. Bagi negara sedang membangun, perbezaan kadar pertumbuhan ekonomi menyebabkan j'Buararun.g-DyaalnagmcuUkaulpintginagogipdearlmamintcaoarnaktepneargmaindtai akanlatnegnaagnandeigaanratarkaurHaanlganmgeamn bdaanngPunerb(aLtDasCasn) - tidak termasuk ekonomi penstrukturan semula - berkembang pada kadar purata 3 peratus setahun bagi tempoh 30 tahun akan datang, lebih kurang 5 peratus rendah daripada kadar anggaran sepanjang tempoh 30 tahun lepas (Gambarajah 5). Peningkatan lebih baik dalam p\"rgg\"^uu\" tenagi dijangka dapat dicapai menerusi teknologi lanjutan dan format harga t\"rkultu.r puru.a. yang membawa kepada aktiviti penswastaan industri tenaga dan letik tidak melalui pensubsidiarian tenaga yang diamalkan dahulu. Dalam Perbatasan Baru, menjelang tahun 2020, negara sedang membangun di Asia Tenggara, termasuk China mungkin mampu mencapai kadar guna tenaga perkapita seperti al Itili dalam tahun 1960. Walau pun keefisyenan tenaga dapat diperbaiki, perbatasan yang Brnrre Snru., Jrr-Mm rccs 35

bakal dihadapi nanti ialah untuk mendapatkan bekalan yang mencukupi bagi menemui permintaan tenaga yang tinggi itu. Perbotoson boru Bekolon lenogo Minyak dan gas akan kekal menjadi enjin pertumbuhan walaupun arang batu masih mempunyai masa depan dalam Perbatasan Baru. Carumannya berkurangan di negara keanggotaan OECD, tetapi kekal sebagai sumber asli murah di kalangan negara sedang membangun (Gambarajah 6). Di kebanyakan negara, sentimen awam dan ekonomi pasaran berterusan menentang nuklear yang caruman sumbangannya juga kian menurun. Di negara keanggotaan OECD, gas secara positif meningkatkan caruman sumbangannya sebagai bekalan tenaga dengan pertambahan ketumpatan 4.5 juta tong setaraf dengannya sehari (boeld) yang diperlukan menjelang2020. Posisi persaingannya yang relatif lebih baik daripada arang batu dan minyak dipermudahkan dengan ciri bersih guna pada teknologi janaan kuasa kombinasi sikal disokongi pula oleh asas sumber asli yang mantap. Rizab gas tidak termaju, bagaimana pun adalah sangat jauh daripada pasaran. Membekalkannya pada harga Penggunaan Tenaga berpatutan adalah menguntungkan jika langkah jangka Bilio tong minyak bersamaanenl panjang diambil untuk mengambil kira stabiliti pasaran 80 dan perkembangan teknologi. Kemungkinan wujud New Frontiers juga peluang untuk membentuk pasaran baru untuk gas di negara sedang membangun dengan sumber asli tempatan yang mencukupi dan ini mungkin menjuruskan pertambahan 25 juta boe/d. Cabaran paling sengit dalam Perbatasan Baru mungkin ditimbulkan oleh bekalan bahan api cair. Untuk LDC sahaja, kapasiti tambahan sebanyak 40 juta tong/sehari (b/d) perlu di buat dari sekarang sehingga menjelang tahun 2020. Berbanding dengan ..1960 1990 tahap pengeluaran semasa, peningkatan pengeluaran 4 AsiaTimur. 2 21 12 dirasakan perlu digiatkan di lima negara Arab Saudi traii I atau lapan negara Lautan Utara. Mobilisasi jangka oECD E Locs (bodcapiral panjang yangbesar diperlukan terhadap sumber tenaga I manusia dan teknologi untuk membekalkan pertumbuhan di kalangan negara miskin. Populosi kerelo dunio Di dunia ini, lebih ramai (kiraan juta) akan memiliki kereta di negara sedang membangun yang memerlukan bahan api untuk kenderaan mereka. Jumlah permintaan untuk bahan api cairbolehmencapaiL00b/dmenjelang2020. Bagimemenuhipermintaantersebutpengeluaran minyak mentah konvensional perlu digiatkan ke tahap sepenuhnya, disokongi pula bahan api cair yang diperolehi daripada minyak dan gas likat melalui proses penukaran. Oleh demikian, bagaimanakah cabaran ini boleh ditangani? Memenuhi permintoon lenogo Permasalahan pertama yang perlu diatasi ialah situasi jangka pendek industri minyak: o terlebih kapasiti; a volatiliti harga a potensi yang lebih bagi harga meningkat dan menurun Dengankembalinyalraqkedalamsenariopasaran,kapasitidijangkamencukupisepanjang dekad akan datang (Gambarajah 8). Sepanjang tempoh penuh rintangan ini, industri akan 36 Brnrre Sxrrr, JrN-Mm tccs